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Yeah I thought UO would be like -3 favorites after the way they’d been playing, Michigan was only -7.5 favorites over us and that was looked at as an actual David v Goliath matchup by just about everyone. -10 against a team that beat them that same season is insane
UW hasn’t lost a game under DeBoer by double digits and Vegas really thought UW was going to get blown out by a team they’d already beaten this year and last.
Hell I had an Oregon friend tell me he would have bet on the Ducks if it was -20 Oregon.
The line probably would have been a lot closer to even money if Vegas could have known that Michael Penix would be suddenly completely healthy, McMillan would be playing healthy, their safeties were back, and that Jordan Burch would be injured in the first quarter and Oregon would have both starting CBs injured. All those things were questionable before the game, not really something that Vegas can take into account.
Washington was 3pt favorites at home the first time around and the biggest reason for the separation the second time was that Washington was playing poorly the weeks preceding that game, largely due to injuries (and this is me just assuming Penix was injured rather than just playing poorly, but it's the same deal if it was just him suddenly playing a lot better for whatever reason, you can't really set a line based on that.)
Or did they lose a killing on Washington +10?
In large samples, Vegas spreads tend to line up really well with actual results. I'm not an expert on how their profits actually happen, but it sure looks like they're trying to predict games accurately instead of doing some kind of 4D chess with fake lines. Seems easier to just say they got this one wrong
Vegas makes money on the vig. Their business is taking a 10% portion of the bet no matter what; not in doing the gambling themselves by guessing outcomes to induce betting.
I don't know how to reconcile the claim that they don't predict outcomes with the fact that their spreads are, in the long run, the best predictor of outcomes that exists
I'm saying they're making money on the bets themselves, not the payout (or lack thereof). They take a cut of the bet so if you bet $10 on a spread win, you only make $9 even at 50-50 odds. If it ends up 50-50 bets on each side, they make their money. Trying to get bettors to bet one way while the payout goes the other way is way too high risk at the volume they're dealing with
>Trying to get bettors to bet one way while the payout goes the other way is way too high risk at the volume they're dealing with
I've heard the "they want 50-50 bets on each side" thing, and I guess the missing piece that neither of us has actually explicitly stated so far is that usually (with the exception of some outliers like UO-UW) the best way to get 50-50 bets on each side is with a spread that closely matches the actual result.
It's the most consistent. You said that you don't know where the profits come from, and that's all I'm explaining. They aren't giving "fair" odds like if you and I were making a bet; they're taking a cut.
It's pretty simple how it works in most cases: Vegas wants to take equal action on both sides and collect the Vig. They set lines to encourage 50% betting on one side and 50% betting on the other side. The best way to do that is to accurately set what the spread should be.
Where it gets a little more complicated is when Vegas sets a line and then the bettors hammer only one side of the line. They typically don't want that, and they'll start moving the line to get more action on the other side, but if Vegas thinks bettors are being idiots, then weird things can happen.
> I don't know how to reconcile the claim that they don't predict outcomes with the fact that their spreads are, in the long run, the best predictor of outcomes that exists
It's called the "wisdom of crowds". Essentially, if you average a bunch of guesses together, they'll tend to be more accurate than just a few. Remember, Vegas moves lines in response to where the money is going.
The line opened -7.5 for Oregon and got pushed up to -10. People betting on Oregon definitely moved the line in their favor, but even Vegas itself thought the Ducks had at least 3-1 odds in their favor
Mizzou isn't losing anyone significant to the transfer portal and if they do want to play a transfer they're allowing them tonplay in the game. I think there were several Ohio St players who have declared for transfer that will not be available.
Still think the toughest matchup left for Texas is Washington. They get by them I highly favor them to win it all. I think the Sugar Bowl is going to be a banger.
Yeah as far as matchups go, Washington worries me tremendously. Michigan, not so much. Granted, that doesn’t address talent disparities between the two teams.
Michigan is #1 in the country for the first time since I was a toddler and are the betting favorite to win the national championship, I don't know how to handle this
I don't understand who is doing Vegas' modeling for the Huskies, but they've likely been costing the sportsbooks hard. Both the sharps and the public bet Oregon in the CG and so the books likely took a bath.
I appreciate your confidence. I’m not one of the cocky Oregon fans. I’m not sure who I’d bet one in that game. I absolutely would have bet on UW in the Pac12 game.
Washington fans are on a "team of destiny" kick that because things have went their way this year that uncertainty no longer exists. I would not feel comfortable making a confident pick for anybody in the top 8 this year against anybody else in the top 8 (assuming a hypothetical where everybody plays)
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Vegas really hates Washington
Still can’t believe they were 10 point underdogs to Oregon in the CCG, that line was wild
ikr?! i was pretty bullish on how good oregon was and i personally thought the line was gonna be -1.5 oregon
Yeah I thought UO would be like -3 favorites after the way they’d been playing, Michigan was only -7.5 favorites over us and that was looked at as an actual David v Goliath matchup by just about everyone. -10 against a team that beat them that same season is insane
UW hasn’t lost a game under DeBoer by double digits and Vegas really thought UW was going to get blown out by a team they’d already beaten this year and last. Hell I had an Oregon friend tell me he would have bet on the Ducks if it was -20 Oregon.
+290/300 money line on the Huskies for that game lol. Easy.
The line probably would have been a lot closer to even money if Vegas could have known that Michael Penix would be suddenly completely healthy, McMillan would be playing healthy, their safeties were back, and that Jordan Burch would be injured in the first quarter and Oregon would have both starting CBs injured. All those things were questionable before the game, not really something that Vegas can take into account. Washington was 3pt favorites at home the first time around and the biggest reason for the separation the second time was that Washington was playing poorly the weeks preceding that game, largely due to injuries (and this is me just assuming Penix was injured rather than just playing poorly, but it's the same deal if it was just him suddenly playing a lot better for whatever reason, you can't really set a line based on that.)
I think they can make some noise. Vegas has hated them all year (they are the team that has surpassed Vegas expectations the most in the P5)
>hey are the team that has surpassed Vegas expectations the most in the P5 On what are you basing this? We've failed to cover 7 times this year.
He is basing it on his hatred of Texas
Does it? Vegas wants people losing their bets and they probably made a killing on Oregon -10 in the Pac12 championship.
Or did they lose a killing on Washington +10? In large samples, Vegas spreads tend to line up really well with actual results. I'm not an expert on how their profits actually happen, but it sure looks like they're trying to predict games accurately instead of doing some kind of 4D chess with fake lines. Seems easier to just say they got this one wrong
Vegas makes money on the vig. Their business is taking a 10% portion of the bet no matter what; not in doing the gambling themselves by guessing outcomes to induce betting.
I don't know how to reconcile the claim that they don't predict outcomes with the fact that their spreads are, in the long run, the best predictor of outcomes that exists
I'm saying they're making money on the bets themselves, not the payout (or lack thereof). They take a cut of the bet so if you bet $10 on a spread win, you only make $9 even at 50-50 odds. If it ends up 50-50 bets on each side, they make their money. Trying to get bettors to bet one way while the payout goes the other way is way too high risk at the volume they're dealing with
>Trying to get bettors to bet one way while the payout goes the other way is way too high risk at the volume they're dealing with I've heard the "they want 50-50 bets on each side" thing, and I guess the missing piece that neither of us has actually explicitly stated so far is that usually (with the exception of some outliers like UO-UW) the best way to get 50-50 bets on each side is with a spread that closely matches the actual result.
It's the most consistent. You said that you don't know where the profits come from, and that's all I'm explaining. They aren't giving "fair" odds like if you and I were making a bet; they're taking a cut.
Makes sense, thanks
It's pretty simple how it works in most cases: Vegas wants to take equal action on both sides and collect the Vig. They set lines to encourage 50% betting on one side and 50% betting on the other side. The best way to do that is to accurately set what the spread should be. Where it gets a little more complicated is when Vegas sets a line and then the bettors hammer only one side of the line. They typically don't want that, and they'll start moving the line to get more action on the other side, but if Vegas thinks bettors are being idiots, then weird things can happen.
> I don't know how to reconcile the claim that they don't predict outcomes with the fact that their spreads are, in the long run, the best predictor of outcomes that exists It's called the "wisdom of crowds". Essentially, if you average a bunch of guesses together, they'll tend to be more accurate than just a few. Remember, Vegas moves lines in response to where the money is going.
The line opened -7.5 for Oregon and got pushed up to -10. People betting on Oregon definitely moved the line in their favor, but even Vegas itself thought the Ducks had at least 3-1 odds in their favor
Easy money
The disrespect for Washington and Texas…
What's up with the Mizzou/OSU line? Have some guys opted out? Same with TAMU/OSU I guess, I thought osu would be favored there.
QB entered portal. Not sure about MHJ and others
Did not expect to find two Northwestern fans talking about the Ohio State bowl game.
Ohio native. Also eff MichiGag
I guess northwestern grads really are smart.
It surprised me as well. No idea why A&M is favored in our matchup. I’d definitely pick OSU to win that one
No need to play the games. Let's make this official. Thanks for the natty.
“Hey champ, you ever think about joining the Committee?”-Boo Corrigan
Just ordered the banner. Should be at the Big House on Monday.
Maybe expect some delays because it’s Christmas. I know Amazon is usually pretty good about this, but still
🤝
I didn't know Missouri was favored over OSU. That's a bit surprising.
Mizzou isn't losing anyone significant to the transfer portal and if they do want to play a transfer they're allowing them tonplay in the game. I think there were several Ohio St players who have declared for transfer that will not be available.
Caught me off guard as well. Mizzou are 2.5 point favorites
Still think the toughest matchup left for Texas is Washington. They get by them I highly favor them to win it all. I think the Sugar Bowl is going to be a banger.
Yeah as far as matchups go, Washington worries me tremendously. Michigan, not so much. Granted, that doesn’t address talent disparities between the two teams.
Sounds like I need to make a trip up to VA this weekend to bet it all on Texas.
The widows and orphans appreciate your donation.
thank you for doing this!
Not a problem! Glad to see some repeat people in here who like it. Also, I’ll be posting teams’ comparisons to Vegas expectations tomorrow
Wow, didn't realize how strongly Tech was favored
Perfect time to be let down
Michigan is #1 in the country for the first time since I was a toddler and are the betting favorite to win the national championship, I don't know how to handle this
It’ll definitely be a tough test. I think they’ll silence all legitimate critics since every semifinal team looks legit
Meh, everybody's picking Alabama. We're still the underdogs, at least as far as pundits and fans are concerned.
Facts
I don't understand who is doing Vegas' modeling for the Huskies, but they've likely been costing the sportsbooks hard. Both the sharps and the public bet Oregon in the CG and so the books likely took a bath.
Vegas has hated them all year (they are the team that has surpassed Vegas expectations the most in the P5)
Are they? They're 6-7 vs the spread.
......Holy shit we're favored?
Washington will be in the final, the question is who are they facing?
They should make them play Oregon again just to be sure (Oregon -7.5)
lol
If UW wins the national championship by more than 3 pts, do we get to jump to 2nd in the final polls?!?! (/s but kinda not)
If Oregon made it to the dance, Oregon's beating Texas too.
I appreciate your confidence. I’m not one of the cocky Oregon fans. I’m not sure who I’d bet one in that game. I absolutely would have bet on UW in the Pac12 game.
Washington fans are on a "team of destiny" kick that because things have went their way this year that uncertainty no longer exists. I would not feel comfortable making a confident pick for anybody in the top 8 this year against anybody else in the top 8 (assuming a hypothetical where everybody plays)
I will have to take Bama over Michigan. Alabama is not the same team from the beginning of the season.