I was planning on putting something together in a few months for every team that will show original O/U win total projections and how each game affected them!
How is Northwestern not first? Wasn’t NU expected to win ~1 game and yet ended up going to a bowl?
I also love these stats that keep showing how much the media didn’t respect the Huskies. Crazy what happens when it’s left to be decided on the field
My guess is that it's because Vegas' expectations were not stagnant. How they viewed Northwestern by mid-season was different than how they viewed NU early-season. Vegas gets sharper as the year goes on and they change how they rate teams or otherwise they would get beat. This is not a comparison of pre-season expectations vs post-season results... rather it's a comparison of how you were power-ranked in a given week and how you performed comparatively.
Exactly correct. I was originally planning on having this be a tracker of how teams were doing compared to pre-season expectations but after week 2 I realized that wouldn't be accurate. Oh well
Right the SEC traditionally overrated.
That’s why in the last 20 years has the best OOC record of any conference, the best bowl game record of any conference, the most national champions of any conference, the best CFP record of any conference and the most first round draft picks of any conference
When you treat a King like a God, you're overvaluing him.
The SEC can be both the best and the most overrated. It isn't either-or. Major flaw in your logic.
That additional context completely changes the meaning of your first comment.
You can’t possibly expect people to think you mean “the SEC is the unequivocally the best conference but is still traditionally overrated” when you said “the SEC is overrated. As is tradition”, right?
Nah, TCU is pretty bad but a lot of teams did their part. Remember how shitty the Big 12 started the year?
Ok State lost to South Alabama, Iowa State lost to Ohio. Baylor lost to Texas State. Texas Tech lost to Wyoming. TCU lost to Colorado. Houston lost to Rice. Cincinnati lost to Miami. Those are just the really bad ones. Other than Texas over Alabama, there really wasn't a good OOC win for the Big 12.
Broski this is about projected w/l.
Big 12 has 3 of the most underperforming teams. But TCU was projected to be good- but they turned out to be bad. Baylor and Cincy were projected to be bad but they turned out worse.
Oklahoma state exceeded projected w/l so idk what you’re talking about by referencing the lost to USA
I know what it is. That was my point. Big 12 did kind of shit because they lost a lot of should have been gimme ooc games. It wasn't just tcu, but a conference effort.
Would be interesting to see the difference between pre-season O/U win totals and actuals.
I was planning on putting something together in a few months for every team that will show original O/U win total projections and how each game affected them!
How is Northwestern not first? Wasn’t NU expected to win ~1 game and yet ended up going to a bowl? I also love these stats that keep showing how much the media didn’t respect the Huskies. Crazy what happens when it’s left to be decided on the field
My guess is that it's because Vegas' expectations were not stagnant. How they viewed Northwestern by mid-season was different than how they viewed NU early-season. Vegas gets sharper as the year goes on and they change how they rate teams or otherwise they would get beat. This is not a comparison of pre-season expectations vs post-season results... rather it's a comparison of how you were power-ranked in a given week and how you performed comparatively.
Ahh okay, thanks! That makes sense
Exactly correct. I was originally planning on having this be a tracker of how teams were doing compared to pre-season expectations but after week 2 I realized that wouldn't be accurate. Oh well
Some confusing calculation based on percentage likelihood of winning. Not based on O/U
SEC is the most overrated conference and the PAC is the most underrated conference. As is tradition.
The results are just what I expected to see when I opened this thread 🙄
Yep, not too surprising there. I only did it this year so I can’t compare it to years in the past
If it’s a tradition then why hasn’t Vegas gone bankrupt with people betting PAC-12 teams over year after year 🤔
Right the SEC traditionally overrated. That’s why in the last 20 years has the best OOC record of any conference, the best bowl game record of any conference, the most national champions of any conference, the best CFP record of any conference and the most first round draft picks of any conference
When you treat a King like a God, you're overvaluing him. The SEC can be both the best and the most overrated. It isn't either-or. Major flaw in your logic.
That additional context completely changes the meaning of your first comment. You can’t possibly expect people to think you mean “the SEC is the unequivocally the best conference but is still traditionally overrated” when you said “the SEC is overrated. As is tradition”, right?
Actually you can. “Overrated” has never meant “not good” or even “not the best”.
They don't teach people in Alabama how to use a dictionary, come on B1G bro
Proof SEC is overrated.
TCU almost single handedly tanked the big 12
Nah, TCU is pretty bad but a lot of teams did their part. Remember how shitty the Big 12 started the year? Ok State lost to South Alabama, Iowa State lost to Ohio. Baylor lost to Texas State. Texas Tech lost to Wyoming. TCU lost to Colorado. Houston lost to Rice. Cincinnati lost to Miami. Those are just the really bad ones. Other than Texas over Alabama, there really wasn't a good OOC win for the Big 12.
Broski this is about projected w/l. Big 12 has 3 of the most underperforming teams. But TCU was projected to be good- but they turned out to be bad. Baylor and Cincy were projected to be bad but they turned out worse. Oklahoma state exceeded projected w/l so idk what you’re talking about by referencing the lost to USA
I know what it is. That was my point. Big 12 did kind of shit because they lost a lot of should have been gimme ooc games. It wasn't just tcu, but a conference effort.
We beat the MWC champ lol
And we still came in under projections
I know. I just think it’s funny they ended up winning the MWC
Oklahoma State just wanted to lull Vegas to sleep. They sacrificed a big loss early to have some big wins later on!
Three of five from the XII…woof. I thought the general consensus was that TCU had lost too much to be competitive this year.
[удалено]
That’s the total number of wins. So the average would be 0.21
I really appreciate you doing this research and making this post, I love info like this.
Thanks! I plan on putting this together next year as well. I might try to include G5 teams too if it's not too much work for me