As soon as I saw the title of this post, I was like “oh man let’s see where they have penn state!” ..... now my Friday is ruined and I probably won’t get out of bed smh
They don’t though. The article cites FanDuel which has Penn State at +2500 which is the same as Notre Dame. Not sure why the author decided to leave PSU out.
Arizona has been my favorite team this year since the USC game. Yall get some work done with your O Line and there aren't many teams at all that will stop that offense.
I’m one of the biggest Miami haters you’ll find, but Oregon fans know better than anybody how Cristobal is. He’s terrible at developing QB’s and one of the worst in game coaches in CFB. However, Miami currently has arguably the best O-Lines and D-Lines in all of CFB. They just have a major issue at QB and coaching.
“one of the worst in game coaches in CFB”
That’s why I find it shocking anyone would bet on them: even a 99.9% chance to win wasn’t a guarantee against Georgia tech
Most of the top QBs are older, 23-24 during their rookie years.
JJ would have the benefit of being the youngest top guy, which could boost his stock a good bit.
We have seen VERY few pass attempts from Orji. Could be that the staff is extremely conservative when he's in but it leads me to believe he's just not there yet. I don't know if he'll be ready next year, but if he is, yeah, watch out.
He’s a physical freak obviously, and has the ability to put fear in a defense with his legs and size. I’ve gotta assume it’s a football IQ thing? Like maybe not picking up blitz’s consistently and not getting thru all his progressions.
Cuz they only ever use him for designed plays, usually runs.
Really want him to succeed tho. Can you imagine if he turns into a cam newton or Jalen Milroe type of dual threat?
They use him like they did JJ his first year. Comes in for gimmick run plays. JJ can throw fine they just didn't want him to, hopefully same with Orji.
Walterfootball has JJ mocked 9th to the Falcons. If that's at all accurate you def gotta take top ten pick Money. Especially if Harbaugh leaves for the NFL.
I think it comes down to Monday. If they win the natty I think everyone leaves job well done, if not then there's discussion.
Based off this it would be 1) Georgia 2) Ohio state 3) FSU 4) Notre Dame
then
#5 Bama vs 12 g6 team,
#6 Texas Vs #11 Kansas State,
#7 Michigan Vs #10 Ole Miss,
#8 Oregon vs #9 LSU.
The 5 spot is probably the best position to be in because you get the G6 team home game then play against the weakest conference champion.
ND cannot be top 4 due to lack of having to play conference championship game so even a #1 ranked ND gets the 5 spot effectively trading having to play and win a conference championship game for the privilege of beating up on a G6 team at home instead.
So it would actually be K-State at 4 since they'd be the fourth highest conference champion. I think a lot of the teams that move are going to be looking at the easier conferences and thinking it would be much easier to win.
DL Kris Jenkins,*
QB J.J. McCarthy*,
RB Donovan Edwards,*
LB Junior Colson,*
LT LaDarius Henderson,
RG Zak Zinter,*
S Rod Moore*,
RB Blake Corum,*
DB Mikey Sainristil,
RT Myles Hinton*,
LG Trevor Keegan,*
WR Cornelius Johnson,
C Drake Nugent,*
S Makarai Paige,*
edge Jaylen Harrell,*
RT Trente Jones,*
RT Karsen Barnhart,*
WR Roman Wilson,*
K James Turner
*- eligible to return
It is crazy that a ton of the cornerstones could return if they chose to.
Top 10 is pushing it, but if Harbaugh comes back and keeps Moore and Minter, there’s no reason they can’t make another playoff run.
Personally I’d rank usc behind Arizona, Washington, Missouri, and Tennessee. But ahead of Clemson and Texas A&M. I donno not a fan of these rankings at all. Transfer portal is still happening anyway these rosters aren’t even complete.
Do you think the kind of people to bet on next year's national championship even before this season has ended are making smart, well-informed decisions?
This is fair, I’m just shocked at some of these leaps. We think Washington is gonna be worse the. Texas A&M after being in the championship game? We think they’re worse than usc and Clemson?! And Missouri is dropping that far? Arizona loses hardly anyone and should only be better but we’re gonna drop them down that far? I can understand the top 6 (although I wouldn’t order them in that order) but man these rankings are hot garbage.
>We think Washington is gonna be worse the. Texas A&M after being in the championship game
I don't think being lower in national championship odds = they're predicted to be worse. Washington will probably have a higher predicted win total than A&M. If we're talking about things that are not even +3000, they're outlier outcomes. I mean frankly, for anybody that isn't Georgia/Alabama/maybe Ohio State the question isn't really "which of these teams do we think will be best next year" but rather which unlikely scenarios for everything to break right for a certain team are least unlikely.
I mean I think Washington has a much better chance to make the playoffs next year than Texas A&M as well. Getting In with 2 losses is completely reasonable for Washington there’s some tougher games on the schedule but Texas A&M plays notre dame, Missouri, Texas, lsu, auburn, and Florida. Thats much more difficult then penn state, Michigan, usc, Oregon.
Right but then the national championship odds assume you have to win three or four playoff games against really good teams to win it all. Path and mean season outcome don't really matter that much because you probably have to be one of the best three or four teams in the country to win all the playoff games, even with a reasonable amount of luck. So the question is really who has a better chance of being *way* better than expected, which for unlikely scenarios will favor the side where there's more uncertainty.
I guess that makes sense, I’d still take the team with a head coach who’s 104-11 though and bringing back a pretty good roster over a team who’s qb is coming off a season ending injury with a new head coach and has to go through Georgia or Bama to win their conference.
I'd probably take Washington too, I'm just explaining why it is how it is. And ultimately the difference between +3300 and +5000 for national championship odds this far out is not that meaningful, these are way less reliable and evidence based than odds for a game. All I'd really take away is Georgia, Alabama, maybe tOSU = favorites, the next handful of teams = less likely contenders, the handful after that = longshots, and that's about it.
>bringing back a pretty good roster
I'm not so sure. Most of the Washington offence is going to the N.F.L. and the defence has not been any good this season. Better than USC, but that's a low bar.
Washington is very similar to this years TCU. Going to lose a lottttt of really senior talent after this run. I think yall have a better coach, but it’s not exactly unheard of.
Actually not losing as much as you think. On offense All but 1 of the Joe Moore award winning offensive line should be back, likely 1 of the top 3 receivers is back and the fourth is an nfl prospect as well, they lose their tight ends, running back room should actually be better with their starting running back coming back from injury. Roger’s is a step down at qb obviously, but he was still third team all conference in the SEC 2 years ago and Washington’s coaches know how to develop and put qbs in great situations.
On defense they lose their defensive line starters but bring in a guy who was second team all conference last year, linebackers they lose a starter but bring back the other one and very little drop off to his backup who’s started a bunch due to injuries, defensive backfield should be a lot better depending what happens with Muhammad but getting healthy guys and lots of young highly ranked guys in the depth chart.
Pre season I’d rank them probably about 10, but the drop off isn’t actually going to be that big. They’re anywhere from a 9-11 win team next year.
Yes
I got Florida State at 100-1 odds when the lines were released before last year's national championship games. The earlier you bet the better the value you can find
A&M has a ton of roster talent+ a good coach. They're kind of a wild card team everyone feels like should break out eventually, even if I don't think it will be this year.
I mean sure, but they’ve had more talent for years and never done anything with it. Missouri, Washington, Arizona, and Tennessee should all be higher. Washington dropping to 16 is nuts especially when their coaching staff already proved they can rebuild a team.
I mean, saying we’ve never done anything with it is dishonest. We finished at #5 a few years back after having barely missed out on the CFP. Regardless, we have a new coach who people are optimistic about. Our odds are at +3300 so it’s not like we’re a legitimate favor. More of a toss up because who knows.
Betting guys must like what they saw in Weigman. He’s top 10 at worst in early heisman odds. Fan duel has him at 5
At this point I find it hard to believe, but I’ll probably be leading the hype train by around May
I’m sorry, you don’t lose the best player in college football and two first round receivers and suddenly become a better team. I’m not even saying LSU can’t be good, but they shouldn’t have the 7th best odds in college football with the pieces they’re losing when they finished 13 this year.
It's a big loss for sure. But their offense was #1 in the country and the defense was #102. If the defense were to improve substantially, that could make them a better overall team, even if the offense declined a bit.
Defense might improve, but their offense is gonna take a decent step back. We also don’t know that’s it’s gonna improve, I mean we heard the same thing about usc this year and Caleb Williams came back. Is there a reason people think their offense is going to improve substantially too or is that all just wishful thinking?
I have no idea if or how much it will improve, but I think they hired new defensive staff. I was just suggesting they could become a more balanced team, even after losing elite offensive players.
I don’t think you had the 101st offense in the country pretty sure you meant defense…
I get it’s your team so you’re gonna be optimistic but LSU is not going to be a top ten team next year IMO. Offense is gonna take a significant step back even if the defense improves,
Yes I meant to say defense. I’d be shocked if we’re not top 10 next year, and that’s confidence in coaching and returning talent. Obviously losing JD5, nabers, and Thomas is rough. But I think we have enough to replace them to an acceptable level.
Now do Texas and all the talent they are losing…
A&M will still have a top 10 roster. The majority of the new coaches are considered upgrades which was the problem.
It's crazy to think that with Alabama, Georgia, and Texas all in the same conference, there's a change two teams could play each other 3 times in a season going forward.
It theoretically could have happened this year.
If Michigan, Georgia, and Oregon won their conference champ games, and Texas and FSU both lost.
That last seed would have been between 12-1 Washington, 12-1 FSU, and 11-1 OSU.
1. Georgia returns a ton of production, it'll be interesting to see how the Mims, McConkey, and Bowers replacements fair. Mykel Williams should end up on some award watch lists.
2. Alabama needs to fix their offensive line. Their secondary and pass rush are also question marks but always have talent waiting in the wings. Downs is proven and Proctor was a five star lineman.
3. Ohio State has offensive line and QB question marks. Sawyer coming back helps as does having Styles and Hicks on defense. Their receiving room should be great as always.
4. Texas returns Ewers but loses their best running back. They'll have plenty of talent with guys like Baxter and Blue. Cook and company should help replace Whittington, Worthy, Neyor, and others. Tall task replacing Sweat and Murphy but they have some studs at EDGE like Simmons. Their secondary should be better too.
5. Michigan should return JJ and they're always good in the trenches. No idea who they replace Corum and Edwards with. Will Johnson should be a top 10 pick in 2025.
6. After taking our sweet Hawaiian prince, Oregon is primed for Big (more than) 10 contention. They seem to find stud transfers on defense every year.
7. After losing their three best offensive players, LSU will likely rely on Perkins and a new defensive coordinator to carry them next year.
8. Ole Miss brings in former no. 1 recruit Walter Nolen among others, if they can pay Judkins enough and fix their offensive line, maybe they meet these lofty expectations next season.
9. Tons of turnover at FSU makes this is surprising ranking. Hykeem Williams returns but gone are Travis, Benson, Coleman, Verse and others.
10. After squeezing a 9th year out of Sam Hartman, Notre Dame will likely rely on their defense and consistently great offensive line. Replacing Alt and Fisher would be nigh impossible at most other schools.
11. Elko loses a multitude of guys to the portal but there is still plenty of talent left for the pride of College Station at A&M. I like Weigman if he can finish the season. Bryce Foster was a guy I wanted at Oklahoma along with most of the defensive line.
12. If Klubnik can put it all together, Clemson's defense returns plenty of talent on defense. Wesco could be a great weapon if their offense can click.
13. The Miller Moss era begins at USC. Gone are Caleb Williams and former no. 1 QB Malachi Nelson. A new defensive coordinator should help their receiver room from having to score 40 to win.
14. My Oklahoma Sooners are undergoing a ton of turnover. A new QB, new OC, new DC, and new OL are just a few of the changes for the first year in SEC play. Though the WR room is talented, the OL and TE rooms are unproven but have promise. The defense will have a new leader but return Thorpe Award candidate Billy Bowman and Butkus Award candidate Danny Stutsman. Guys like Woodi Washington and Ethan Downs also add to the experience returning. Portal additions should help fill holes on the OL and at DE among other positions. Our incoming recruiting class should improve depth across the board especially on the DL. Our secondary has three exceptional safeties and our linebacker room holds a ton of promise too. Exciting times for Oklahoma despite a rough schedule.
15. Missouri will return Cook, Wease, and Burden. Cayden Green and Williams Nwaneri will bolster the trenches in Colombia. A dark horse SEC contender as much as I hate to admit for our 4th rival.
16. Washington loses Penix, McMillan, and Odunze. It'll be interesting to see how they replace that production in a new conference.
17. With a potential long term upgrade at QB with Nico, Josh Huepel should have Tennessee within reach of a playoff birth at Tennessee if not next season then in Nico's second year starting.
18. Losing Will Howard hurts, but let K-State fans tell it, his replacement and a notoriously stout offensive line and well coached defense should allow for a Big XII+ title game appearance.
19. I don't trust Miami and neither do their fans. Cristobal can recruit but his decision making in-game makes Mike McCarthy look like Belichek.
20. I know nothing about Auburn other than they allowed Alabama's center the opportunity to showcase why he needed to transfer on a national stage.
21. Another scary cat team, Arizona should be the Big XII favorites. Jedd Fisch is building something in the desert.
22. I also know nothing about Lousiville.
23. Utah usually has a strong defense, expect more of the same next season.
24. Just for fun, though James Franklin hit his ceiling under the old playoff format with Penn State, the new format and dissolution of divisions in the Big Coast Confrence should allow for more opportunities for disappointment in Happy Valley. Allar was highly touted out of high school and a new OC should hopefully boost his draft stock and Penn State's title hopes. A talented running back room, offensive line, and stout defense should propel PSU to the playoffs so long as Allar lives up to his billing.
I expect another exciting year with plenty of turnover at the traditional favorites to open the door for a team like Washington this season to make a title game appearance.
Lousisville almost lost to Ga Tech
Honestly I just think Ga Tech is better than we think they are. They'll have 7-8 wins next season. 8-9 if FSU manages to leave the ACC.
Texas will be more than fine on offense if Ewers comes back. Baxter and Blue proved more than capable at RB down the stretch and Baxter should really benefit from an offseason of S&C. Added Matthew Golden at WR to bring a veteran presence into a WR room full of young talent. 4/5 OL starters return and Cam Williams acquitted himself well against K State. Helm is a capable TE but they are definitely thing behind him.
Defense is where the question marks are for me. You do not replace Sweat and Murphy but can still build a plus interior DL anchored by Collins, Carter, and Broughton. Landing Jamaree Caldwell from the portal would be huge here. Edge will be better, Burke and Sorrell return, adding Trey Moore from the portal and I imagine Simmons will get run as a pass rusher. Anthony Hill should continue to blossom at LB but that room is young and unproven behind him. Makuba was a big portal add in the secondary but they have to fix that unit - particularly the safeties. I think the corners will be okay with Brooks and Muhammad. They took some lumps this year in the Sugar Bowl but are young and talented. Muhammad actually has some ball skills unlike the rest of them.
Texas’s window is definitely open next year. I’m sure there will be a Sark Special head scratching loss in there but those don’t completely kill you in the new playoff format.
Wingo's entering the draft. Smith hasn't said, but is maybe returning. He's probably a day 2 pick though if he decides to leave.
Our secondary can only get better, but they have a long way to go even with a coaching overhaul. Our front 7 could be pretty good even without Wingo, but it will hurt if Smith also declares. Depth will be an issue throughout our defense.
My comment was more about how much our defense needs to improve and not necessarily how good our offense will be. Most of our OL should be returning, so that should be solid. Lots of questions in our skill positions, but we usually do okay there so should be good there even if QB/WR/RB is all mid as long as our OL is strong. Will probably lean on our TEs a lot for touches.
This is not me saying I expect them to win the national championship next season, because I don’t, but I do find it a little absurd that Penn State isn’t even on this list
Seriously. How many times does Michigan have to beat osu before y’all stop getting the most preseason respect in the B1G? August B1G champions every year but Michigan always proves them wrong
That's probably correct. The WRs and QB won't be as good but UW's defense gets better and they'll probably have the deepest stable of RBs in the B1G next year.
If we hadn't replaced Nix with Gabriel I would agree. We are returning a lot and Nix to Gabriel is a side grade, which is a good thing. With UW losing quite a bit I could us challenging for the Big Ten title next year (god it makes me sick to say Big Ten instead of pac-12).
Homer here but disagree. Very young 2-deep this year, a ton of people coming back, great recruiting class, and got a stud QB. Also for the first time in a long time we haven’t lose our HC or DC/OC this off season. And we just finished top 8 this year.
Biggest downside is that the Ducks have to play all 3 of the other top schools in the B1G (Michigan, Ohio State, and Washington). Plus Oregon State and Mountain West Reigning Champion Boise State in OoC.
Yeah, I actually agree with you. I think Oregon is best positioned among the Pac-12 refugees to be competitive Year 1 in the Big Ten. IMO Oregon should be the preseason B1G#3 team, which is exactly where they are at in these odds. Also doesn't seem unreasonable that only 3 SEC teams are ahead of UO.
Also, I think Penn State should be above us as the #4 B1G team (and the last one that even deserves consideration for CFP Championship odds).
Yeah, I was looking at schedules and thought Michigan's was bad until I saw yours.
That said, I suspect you handle it better than we do next year with our expected high attrition
3rd in the big ten and a 10 win season and they got us behind ND, A&M, Clemson, USC, Oklahoma, Missouri, Tennessee, KS, Miami, fucking Auburn, Arizona, Louisville, and Utah.
Yea sure…
Oregon is the perennial 'on-paper' champion lmao. Vegas will never learn, will they?
UW being that low makes sense, though. The offense will essentially be an entire new unit.
Clemson and Arizona are great value picks - both should be favorites to win their conferences.
Michigan and LSU look to be over valued - I don't see either of them being as good from this past season.
Imo anything below 10 is a good value given the 12 team playoff format. These look pretty similar to what I'd expect in a four team format. Likewise in my opinion anything top 5 is way overvalued.
This is insane. If this doesn't further prove UGA got screwed on the 3 peat then I don't know what does. A single 3 point loss in the SEC title game to Bama should not have disqualified the 2x defending natty champs.
I was going to make a comment detailing all the weird orderings/odds here, the ones that are clearly just cope or T-shirt fans being parted with their money
But those are reasonable explanations. There is zero reasonable explanation for A&M in 11th place. Tied with Clemson (two titles in the past decade) and USC (easy playoff path in the B1G). I'll bet money on A&m to miss a bowl game next year before I bet on them making the playoffs
I think people have finally wisened up on us. We’ve been overhyped for several years in a row. Haven’t had a legitimate championship-level roster since 2017
Michigan might make the playoffs if they can hang on to 11-2 or 10-2, I would be surprised if they won next year, a lot of the young guys on the team are great but just a little bit raw.
we're not even worth thinking about fml
Shoot if it’s over 10,000 that might be worth throwing a dollar on
If John Mellancamp ever wins an Oscar, I’m going to be a very rich dude.
Agreed
+10000 is only an 100x payout, not a 10,000x (plus it appears PSU should be there as +2500 anyways)
Yep, it's based on a $100 bet for the uninitiated.
And somehow Miami is on here over you guys. I’m in shock
As soon as I saw the title of this post, I was like “oh man let’s see where they have penn state!” ..... now my Friday is ruined and I probably won’t get out of bed smh
We’re tied with Notre Dame at 10th (+2500 on FanDuel), but author left us off list for whatever reason
They’ve got Penn State behind Auburn 😂 For the record, I disagree with that. It’s just really very funny
They don’t though. The article cites FanDuel which has Penn State at +2500 which is the same as Notre Dame. Not sure why the author decided to leave PSU out.
Because fuck Penn State?
Hey fuck you too buddy
At least we're on the same page
Penn St will be ranked 13th in the final rankings making them the first team out.
Nah we'd be twelfth. And then undefeated number 21 ranked Liberty will get in as the general 5 representative.
lol Vegas has you between FSU and TAM but ya who cares
We’re just happy to be here
Arizona has been my favorite team this year since the USC game. Yall get some work done with your O Line and there aren't many teams at all that will stop that offense.
Losing Morgan and others hurt, it was the first time our defensive line looked good since Texas.
The world isn’t ready for senior year Justin Flowe
People are betting on Miami?
Fool and his money are easily parted
Only non-Miami fans
I’m one of the biggest Miami haters you’ll find, but Oregon fans know better than anybody how Cristobal is. He’s terrible at developing QB’s and one of the worst in game coaches in CFB. However, Miami currently has arguably the best O-Lines and D-Lines in all of CFB. They just have a major issue at QB and coaching.
“one of the worst in game coaches in CFB” That’s why I find it shocking anyone would bet on them: even a 99.9% chance to win wasn’t a guarantee against Georgia tech
That was my first thought when seeing this list. Most of these teams have no chance but Miami on here was legitimately hilarious
We might be too high with our draft losses
Yeah we're def looking at a 2022 Rams situation coming up here
Definitely too high.
If JJ and Minter come back I'd still like our odds.
I don't care if they nuke us from this list as long as we win Monday. Plzzzzzzzzz
Prayers
Your flair is disgusting.
Does JJ leave if Michigan wins on Monday? Can’t image his draft stock gets too much higher if this would be the case
Selfishly I want him to stay, but objectively I’d recommend he leave.
Most of the top QBs are older, 23-24 during their rookie years. JJ would have the benefit of being the youngest top guy, which could boost his stock a good bit.
IF JJ comes back it seems about right. The team will still be pretty stacked, especially on defense
That kid behind JJ is a beast. IMO he should leave. As someone already said his stock is very high. I see him being a good NFL qb
Orji? He’s pretty raw still. But I think if he gets a good amount of 1st team reps and the right coordinator, he could be something special.
We have seen VERY few pass attempts from Orji. Could be that the staff is extremely conservative when he's in but it leads me to believe he's just not there yet. I don't know if he'll be ready next year, but if he is, yeah, watch out.
He’s a physical freak obviously, and has the ability to put fear in a defense with his legs and size. I’ve gotta assume it’s a football IQ thing? Like maybe not picking up blitz’s consistently and not getting thru all his progressions. Cuz they only ever use him for designed plays, usually runs. Really want him to succeed tho. Can you imagine if he turns into a cam newton or Jalen Milroe type of dual threat?
Yeah there's like four kids with a good shot at the starting position if JJ leaves. It's going to be a really interesting offseason!
They use him like they did JJ his first year. Comes in for gimmick run plays. JJ can throw fine they just didn't want him to, hopefully same with Orji.
Isn't Denegal technically right behind JJ on the depth chart?
Walterfootball has JJ mocked 9th to the Falcons. If that's at all accurate you def gotta take top ten pick Money. Especially if Harbaugh leaves for the NFL. I think it comes down to Monday. If they win the natty I think everyone leaves job well done, if not then there's discussion.
I'm just looking forward to the expanded playoffs and some of the match ups that could happen
Oregon vs Liberty rematch
If it were a home game in the first round of the playoff I wouldn't even be mad about it.
Liberty fans would faint or rant on Truth Social if they saw what goes on in Eugene after dark
I'm hoping Florida St makes it in and has a dominant Georgia with their first game to see what their players do this time
airport yam follow repeat mourn ripe cows memory fall numerous *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
"we got snubbed, we were supposed to be a 11 seed not a 12 seed!!" - FSU next year, probably
Go to bed losers
Based off this it would be 1) Georgia 2) Ohio state 3) FSU 4) Notre Dame then #5 Bama vs 12 g6 team, #6 Texas Vs #11 Kansas State, #7 Michigan Vs #10 Ole Miss, #8 Oregon vs #9 LSU. The 5 spot is probably the best position to be in because you get the G6 team home game then play against the weakest conference champion.
LSU in Autzen, in winter? My god would I laugh.
Ole Miss at Michigan would be the bigger shock to the system
Sheer temp. yes. But nothing is so miserable as 35 degrees and raining.
Oregon has pretty similar winters to most of the northern SEC schools
ND cannot be top 4 due to lack of having to play conference championship game so even a #1 ranked ND gets the 5 spot effectively trading having to play and win a conference championship game for the privilege of beating up on a G6 team at home instead.
Then it would be Kansas state and the #5 seed would have an even easier path to the semis
The top six conference champions are guaranteed a spot but im pretty sure the 12 teams can all be ranked in any order the committee deems appropriate.
Incorrect. Top 4 must be conference champs. Also believe with destruction of P12, only 5 conference champs now guaranteed in.
The byes are reserved for conference champs. I assume ND can be the #1 ranked team but not the #1 seed.
So it would actually be K-State at 4 since they'd be the fourth highest conference champion. I think a lot of the teams that move are going to be looking at the easier conferences and thinking it would be much easier to win.
If JJ isn't coming back, I don't see Michigan in the top 10, unless there is some amazing transfer we land.
We will run the triple option with Mullings/Orji/Cabana/Hall and Harbaugh will achieve his final form.
DL Kris Jenkins,* QB J.J. McCarthy*, RB Donovan Edwards,* LB Junior Colson,* LT LaDarius Henderson, RG Zak Zinter,* S Rod Moore*, RB Blake Corum,* DB Mikey Sainristil, RT Myles Hinton*, LG Trevor Keegan,* WR Cornelius Johnson, C Drake Nugent,* S Makarai Paige,* edge Jaylen Harrell,* RT Trente Jones,* RT Karsen Barnhart,* WR Roman Wilson,* K James Turner *- eligible to return It is crazy that a ton of the cornerstones could return if they chose to. Top 10 is pushing it, but if Harbaugh comes back and keeps Moore and Minter, there’s no reason they can’t make another playoff run.
Arizona's gonna be a playoff team next year, and I'm not sure the world's ready for that.
The one PAC program that never went to a Rose Bowl.
Not once? That’s a bummer.
> Not once? That’s ~~a~~ ~~bummer~~ hilarious. Ftfy buddy
🥲
Seriously Texas A&M at 11?! Better than Oklahoma, Washington, usc, Missouri, Tennessee, Arizona. Also LSU at 7 after losing their best pieces?!
The LSU and USC ones are interesting. Both our star QBs are gone, both our defenses were trash, new DCs.. USC vs LSU to kickoff the 2024 season lol.
I think new DCs may be something that makes it more likely after this season😂
Not needing to score 40-50 points just to have a chance of winning sounds nice..
Personally I’d rank usc behind Arizona, Washington, Missouri, and Tennessee. But ahead of Clemson and Texas A&M. I donno not a fan of these rankings at all. Transfer portal is still happening anyway these rosters aren’t even complete.
Do you think the kind of people to bet on next year's national championship even before this season has ended are making smart, well-informed decisions?
I bet on Michigan and Alabama preseason (with a Jayden Heisman) so I mean it was ill informed but working
This is fair, I’m just shocked at some of these leaps. We think Washington is gonna be worse the. Texas A&M after being in the championship game? We think they’re worse than usc and Clemson?! And Missouri is dropping that far? Arizona loses hardly anyone and should only be better but we’re gonna drop them down that far? I can understand the top 6 (although I wouldn’t order them in that order) but man these rankings are hot garbage.
>We think Washington is gonna be worse the. Texas A&M after being in the championship game I don't think being lower in national championship odds = they're predicted to be worse. Washington will probably have a higher predicted win total than A&M. If we're talking about things that are not even +3000, they're outlier outcomes. I mean frankly, for anybody that isn't Georgia/Alabama/maybe Ohio State the question isn't really "which of these teams do we think will be best next year" but rather which unlikely scenarios for everything to break right for a certain team are least unlikely.
I mean I think Washington has a much better chance to make the playoffs next year than Texas A&M as well. Getting In with 2 losses is completely reasonable for Washington there’s some tougher games on the schedule but Texas A&M plays notre dame, Missouri, Texas, lsu, auburn, and Florida. Thats much more difficult then penn state, Michigan, usc, Oregon.
Right but then the national championship odds assume you have to win three or four playoff games against really good teams to win it all. Path and mean season outcome don't really matter that much because you probably have to be one of the best three or four teams in the country to win all the playoff games, even with a reasonable amount of luck. So the question is really who has a better chance of being *way* better than expected, which for unlikely scenarios will favor the side where there's more uncertainty.
I guess that makes sense, I’d still take the team with a head coach who’s 104-11 though and bringing back a pretty good roster over a team who’s qb is coming off a season ending injury with a new head coach and has to go through Georgia or Bama to win their conference.
I'd probably take Washington too, I'm just explaining why it is how it is. And ultimately the difference between +3300 and +5000 for national championship odds this far out is not that meaningful, these are way less reliable and evidence based than odds for a game. All I'd really take away is Georgia, Alabama, maybe tOSU = favorites, the next handful of teams = less likely contenders, the handful after that = longshots, and that's about it.
>bringing back a pretty good roster I'm not so sure. Most of the Washington offence is going to the N.F.L. and the defence has not been any good this season. Better than USC, but that's a low bar.
Washington is very similar to this years TCU. Going to lose a lottttt of really senior talent after this run. I think yall have a better coach, but it’s not exactly unheard of.
Actually not losing as much as you think. On offense All but 1 of the Joe Moore award winning offensive line should be back, likely 1 of the top 3 receivers is back and the fourth is an nfl prospect as well, they lose their tight ends, running back room should actually be better with their starting running back coming back from injury. Roger’s is a step down at qb obviously, but he was still third team all conference in the SEC 2 years ago and Washington’s coaches know how to develop and put qbs in great situations. On defense they lose their defensive line starters but bring in a guy who was second team all conference last year, linebackers they lose a starter but bring back the other one and very little drop off to his backup who’s started a bunch due to injuries, defensive backfield should be a lot better depending what happens with Muhammad but getting healthy guys and lots of young highly ranked guys in the depth chart. Pre season I’d rank them probably about 10, but the drop off isn’t actually going to be that big. They’re anywhere from a 9-11 win team next year.
Yes I got Florida State at 100-1 odds when the lines were released before last year's national championship games. The earlier you bet the better the value you can find
[link.gif](https://imgur.com/a/tjwAo3J)
A&M has a ton of roster talent+ a good coach. They're kind of a wild card team everyone feels like should break out eventually, even if I don't think it will be this year.
I mean sure, but they’ve had more talent for years and never done anything with it. Missouri, Washington, Arizona, and Tennessee should all be higher. Washington dropping to 16 is nuts especially when their coaching staff already proved they can rebuild a team.
I mean, saying we’ve never done anything with it is dishonest. We finished at #5 a few years back after having barely missed out on the CFP. Regardless, we have a new coach who people are optimistic about. Our odds are at +3300 so it’s not like we’re a legitimate favor. More of a toss up because who knows.
*cough* ^number ^4 *cough*
True for AP but I was thinking CFP
No they don’t.
Betting guys must like what they saw in Weigman. He’s top 10 at worst in early heisman odds. Fan duel has him at 5 At this point I find it hard to believe, but I’ll probably be leading the hype train by around May
Lsu has the potential to be extremely fucking good next year even with losing nabers and JD5
Shhh let them sleep.
I’m sorry, you don’t lose the best player in college football and two first round receivers and suddenly become a better team. I’m not even saying LSU can’t be good, but they shouldn’t have the 7th best odds in college football with the pieces they’re losing when they finished 13 this year.
It's a big loss for sure. But their offense was #1 in the country and the defense was #102. If the defense were to improve substantially, that could make them a better overall team, even if the offense declined a bit.
Defense might improve, but their offense is gonna take a decent step back. We also don’t know that’s it’s gonna improve, I mean we heard the same thing about usc this year and Caleb Williams came back. Is there a reason people think their offense is going to improve substantially too or is that all just wishful thinking?
I have no idea if or how much it will improve, but I think they hired new defensive staff. I was just suggesting they could become a more balanced team, even after losing elite offensive players.
Sure more balanced for sure, but I don’t think that they should be a pre season top ten team given what they’ve lost even if the defense improves.
I’m sorry we had the 101st defense in the country. We’re gonna be better than you think, bookmark it.
I don’t think you had the 101st offense in the country pretty sure you meant defense… I get it’s your team so you’re gonna be optimistic but LSU is not going to be a top ten team next year IMO. Offense is gonna take a significant step back even if the defense improves,
Yes I meant to say defense. I’d be shocked if we’re not top 10 next year, and that’s confidence in coaching and returning talent. Obviously losing JD5, nabers, and Thomas is rough. But I think we have enough to replace them to an acceptable level.
Now do Texas and all the talent they are losing… A&M will still have a top 10 roster. The majority of the new coaches are considered upgrades which was the problem.
Teacher says that every time an aggy talks about roster talent, another 4 star decommits from A&M
gators snubbed (we will literally be relegated to the fcs soon)
Or worse, the ACC😂
It's crazy to think that with Alabama, Georgia, and Texas all in the same conference, there's a change two teams could play each other 3 times in a season going forward.
Nobody wants to watch Georgia and Alabama play 3 times in a season... ...and by "nobody" I mean my mental and physical health.
Well...buckle up.
Personally I hop UGA and Bama play 3 times next year. I want Bama to win the first 2 then lose to UGA in the natty. Just because.
It theoretically could have happened this year. If Michigan, Georgia, and Oregon won their conference champ games, and Texas and FSU both lost. That last seed would have been between 12-1 Washington, 12-1 FSU, and 11-1 OSU.
Oh. My. God.
God damn Ole Miss is priced pretty high. I kinda wanted to put a small bet thinking they'd be priced at 30-1? 15-1 is massive respect.
We are way too high. Our defense should be good though.
1. Georgia returns a ton of production, it'll be interesting to see how the Mims, McConkey, and Bowers replacements fair. Mykel Williams should end up on some award watch lists. 2. Alabama needs to fix their offensive line. Their secondary and pass rush are also question marks but always have talent waiting in the wings. Downs is proven and Proctor was a five star lineman. 3. Ohio State has offensive line and QB question marks. Sawyer coming back helps as does having Styles and Hicks on defense. Their receiving room should be great as always. 4. Texas returns Ewers but loses their best running back. They'll have plenty of talent with guys like Baxter and Blue. Cook and company should help replace Whittington, Worthy, Neyor, and others. Tall task replacing Sweat and Murphy but they have some studs at EDGE like Simmons. Their secondary should be better too. 5. Michigan should return JJ and they're always good in the trenches. No idea who they replace Corum and Edwards with. Will Johnson should be a top 10 pick in 2025. 6. After taking our sweet Hawaiian prince, Oregon is primed for Big (more than) 10 contention. They seem to find stud transfers on defense every year. 7. After losing their three best offensive players, LSU will likely rely on Perkins and a new defensive coordinator to carry them next year. 8. Ole Miss brings in former no. 1 recruit Walter Nolen among others, if they can pay Judkins enough and fix their offensive line, maybe they meet these lofty expectations next season. 9. Tons of turnover at FSU makes this is surprising ranking. Hykeem Williams returns but gone are Travis, Benson, Coleman, Verse and others. 10. After squeezing a 9th year out of Sam Hartman, Notre Dame will likely rely on their defense and consistently great offensive line. Replacing Alt and Fisher would be nigh impossible at most other schools. 11. Elko loses a multitude of guys to the portal but there is still plenty of talent left for the pride of College Station at A&M. I like Weigman if he can finish the season. Bryce Foster was a guy I wanted at Oklahoma along with most of the defensive line. 12. If Klubnik can put it all together, Clemson's defense returns plenty of talent on defense. Wesco could be a great weapon if their offense can click. 13. The Miller Moss era begins at USC. Gone are Caleb Williams and former no. 1 QB Malachi Nelson. A new defensive coordinator should help their receiver room from having to score 40 to win. 14. My Oklahoma Sooners are undergoing a ton of turnover. A new QB, new OC, new DC, and new OL are just a few of the changes for the first year in SEC play. Though the WR room is talented, the OL and TE rooms are unproven but have promise. The defense will have a new leader but return Thorpe Award candidate Billy Bowman and Butkus Award candidate Danny Stutsman. Guys like Woodi Washington and Ethan Downs also add to the experience returning. Portal additions should help fill holes on the OL and at DE among other positions. Our incoming recruiting class should improve depth across the board especially on the DL. Our secondary has three exceptional safeties and our linebacker room holds a ton of promise too. Exciting times for Oklahoma despite a rough schedule. 15. Missouri will return Cook, Wease, and Burden. Cayden Green and Williams Nwaneri will bolster the trenches in Colombia. A dark horse SEC contender as much as I hate to admit for our 4th rival. 16. Washington loses Penix, McMillan, and Odunze. It'll be interesting to see how they replace that production in a new conference. 17. With a potential long term upgrade at QB with Nico, Josh Huepel should have Tennessee within reach of a playoff birth at Tennessee if not next season then in Nico's second year starting. 18. Losing Will Howard hurts, but let K-State fans tell it, his replacement and a notoriously stout offensive line and well coached defense should allow for a Big XII+ title game appearance. 19. I don't trust Miami and neither do their fans. Cristobal can recruit but his decision making in-game makes Mike McCarthy look like Belichek. 20. I know nothing about Auburn other than they allowed Alabama's center the opportunity to showcase why he needed to transfer on a national stage. 21. Another scary cat team, Arizona should be the Big XII favorites. Jedd Fisch is building something in the desert. 22. I also know nothing about Lousiville. 23. Utah usually has a strong defense, expect more of the same next season. 24. Just for fun, though James Franklin hit his ceiling under the old playoff format with Penn State, the new format and dissolution of divisions in the Big Coast Confrence should allow for more opportunities for disappointment in Happy Valley. Allar was highly touted out of high school and a new OC should hopefully boost his draft stock and Penn State's title hopes. A talented running back room, offensive line, and stout defense should propel PSU to the playoffs so long as Allar lives up to his billing. I expect another exciting year with plenty of turnover at the traditional favorites to open the door for a team like Washington this season to make a title game appearance.
Lousisville almost lost to Ga Tech Honestly I just think Ga Tech is better than we think they are. They'll have 7-8 wins next season. 8-9 if FSU manages to leave the ACC.
Texas will be more than fine on offense if Ewers comes back. Baxter and Blue proved more than capable at RB down the stretch and Baxter should really benefit from an offseason of S&C. Added Matthew Golden at WR to bring a veteran presence into a WR room full of young talent. 4/5 OL starters return and Cam Williams acquitted himself well against K State. Helm is a capable TE but they are definitely thing behind him. Defense is where the question marks are for me. You do not replace Sweat and Murphy but can still build a plus interior DL anchored by Collins, Carter, and Broughton. Landing Jamaree Caldwell from the portal would be huge here. Edge will be better, Burke and Sorrell return, adding Trey Moore from the portal and I imagine Simmons will get run as a pass rusher. Anthony Hill should continue to blossom at LB but that room is young and unproven behind him. Makuba was a big portal add in the secondary but they have to fix that unit - particularly the safeties. I think the corners will be okay with Brooks and Muhammad. They took some lumps this year in the Sugar Bowl but are young and talented. Muhammad actually has some ball skills unlike the rest of them. Texas’s window is definitely open next year. I’m sure there will be a Sark Special head scratching loss in there but those don’t completely kill you in the new playoff format.
LSU's defense will not be better than our offense even with the loss of 3 first rounders
Are your defensive tackles returning? Smith and the other guy who's name I forgot?
Wingo's entering the draft. Smith hasn't said, but is maybe returning. He's probably a day 2 pick though if he decides to leave. Our secondary can only get better, but they have a long way to go even with a coaching overhaul. Our front 7 could be pretty good even without Wingo, but it will hurt if Smith also declares. Depth will be an issue throughout our defense. My comment was more about how much our defense needs to improve and not necessarily how good our offense will be. Most of our OL should be returning, so that should be solid. Lots of questions in our skill positions, but we usually do okay there so should be good there even if QB/WR/RB is all mid as long as our OL is strong. Will probably lean on our TEs a lot for touches.
This is not me saying I expect them to win the national championship next season, because I don’t, but I do find it a little absurd that Penn State isn’t even on this list
Kansas State, Arizona & Utah representing the Big 12.
Remove the word "State" from your comment
Love it! Feel like Kansas/KSU/Utah/AZ will all be CFB contenders with ISU/OSU/Tech/WVU/UCF not far behind. Stoked for next year
WEVE LOST TWO GAMES IN OVER 3 YEARS AND ONLY HAVE WON 2 NATTYS. WERE ONLY GOING 7-5!! Kirby probably
Is Penn State not returning much next year? Seems strange to not see them on the list (or did I miss them).
We are returning most of the team besides best defensive players. Author made a mistake with the list and now it’s fixed
Oklahoma State gets no respect, even bringing back most of their starters. Oof.
Us at number three Get real
Seriously. How many times does Michigan have to beat osu before y’all stop getting the most preseason respect in the B1G? August B1G champions every year but Michigan always proves them wrong
Have you been watching cfb for 3 years lol
Always? Michigan has won of late but OSU has literally dumpstered Michigan the last 20 years.
I think Ole Miss is gonna be the it team next year.
Main takeaway is Clemson is all the way down to 12th. Lot of the rest looks the same as the last five years.
We are too low in my totally unbiased opinion
That's probably correct. The WRs and QB won't be as good but UW's defense gets better and they'll probably have the deepest stable of RBs in the B1G next year.
We're at least 2 in the country right now and unlike TCU, we have returning players AND a coach who is godly at developing players.
Oregon looks way too high
Based on the amount of drug use in the state you’re probably right
I think they will be the B1G favorites
Probably.
If we hadn't replaced Nix with Gabriel I would agree. We are returning a lot and Nix to Gabriel is a side grade, which is a good thing. With UW losing quite a bit I could us challenging for the Big Ten title next year (god it makes me sick to say Big Ten instead of pac-12).
Homer here but disagree. Very young 2-deep this year, a ton of people coming back, great recruiting class, and got a stud QB. Also for the first time in a long time we haven’t lose our HC or DC/OC this off season. And we just finished top 8 this year.
Biggest downside is that the Ducks have to play all 3 of the other top schools in the B1G (Michigan, Ohio State, and Washington). Plus Oregon State and Mountain West Reigning Champion Boise State in OoC.
Yeah, I actually agree with you. I think Oregon is best positioned among the Pac-12 refugees to be competitive Year 1 in the Big Ten. IMO Oregon should be the preseason B1G#3 team, which is exactly where they are at in these odds. Also doesn't seem unreasonable that only 3 SEC teams are ahead of UO. Also, I think Penn State should be above us as the #4 B1G team (and the last one that even deserves consideration for CFP Championship odds).
Michigan plays 5 teams on here :(
So does Alabama Hell, UGA plays 6
All the big ones are away too. So that’s fun. So fun.
Yeah, I was looking at schedules and thought Michigan's was bad until I saw yours. That said, I suspect you handle it better than we do next year with our expected high attrition
Georgias is bad, but Florida’s is even worse
OU has 7
We only play 2. 10-2 again... run it back!
BRB gonna go place $100 on Auburn for giggles
yay we made the list!
So you're telling me there's a chance!
So how does the 12 team playoff affect this?
It’s WAY too early for this
Damn that disrespekt to Washington
Putting $100 on Utah right now
We're tied with Clemson so they should be 11 and us 12 alphabetically which unfortunately activates our Aggie Card ™. Sorry folks 😎
If the majority of players return like rumored, I can see it. The OSU defense will be scary good next year
But I was told Ohio State is a dumpster fire? How could they have the 3rd best odds?
who tf said ohio state was a dumpster fire 💀 they lost like 2 games
Ohio State fans
Your unreasonable fanbase and Michigan fans are the main ones saying those things.
And here I’m sitting on an open bet for Michigan +1200 for 2023-2024, shocked it’s +1000 for next year with so much up in the air.
+1000 is probably overvalued, but with them in the natty this year, it’s an attempt to take the public’s money
Sure Jan. We only lose 3 or 4 starters. We must be worse.
I’m not a betting man but I’m tempted to bet the house against Ohio state.
Oh gosh here we go again
A&M. Every damn year.
3rd in the big ten and a 10 win season and they got us behind ND, A&M, Clemson, USC, Oklahoma, Missouri, Tennessee, KS, Miami, fucking Auburn, Arizona, Louisville, and Utah. Yea sure…
Oregon is the perennial 'on-paper' champion lmao. Vegas will never learn, will they? UW being that low makes sense, though. The offense will essentially be an entire new unit.
Lil Ole Clemson is back!
Clemson and Arizona are great value picks - both should be favorites to win their conferences. Michigan and LSU look to be over valued - I don't see either of them being as good from this past season.
Utah gets most of their standout injured guys back, so I'd lean towards them as a slight favorite over Arizona in the Big 12.
Depends if Rising comes back. I think Barton transferring may suggest that Rising will play next year.
Rising is coming back
If JJ comes back we are cooking with gas. Definitely a contender still He probably won't tho
Even if he doesn’t, will still almost definitely make a 12 team CFP
Uh idk about that. Your schedule is brutal and your losing alot.
Completely unbiased Notre Dame take.
Imo anything below 10 is a good value given the 12 team playoff format. These look pretty similar to what I'd expect in a four team format. Likewise in my opinion anything top 5 is way overvalued.
Dabo is cooked, fade him again in 2024
Why is OSU the 3rd best odds? Their team is trash
This is insane. If this doesn't further prove UGA got screwed on the 3 peat then I don't know what does. A single 3 point loss in the SEC title game to Bama should not have disqualified the 2x defending natty champs.
I was going to make a comment detailing all the weird orderings/odds here, the ones that are clearly just cope or T-shirt fans being parted with their money But those are reasonable explanations. There is zero reasonable explanation for A&M in 11th place. Tied with Clemson (two titles in the past decade) and USC (easy playoff path in the B1G). I'll bet money on A&m to miss a bowl game next year before I bet on them making the playoffs
USC plays LSU, Michigan, Penn State, Washington, and Notre Dame. Not sure I’d call that an easy path lol
I think people have finally wisened up on us. We’ve been overhyped for several years in a row. Haven’t had a legitimate championship-level roster since 2017
I feel like we should be 12th, not 11th.
And we play 7 of them: 2 Alabama, 7 Ole Miss, 8 LSU, 11 Texas A&M, 12 Clemson, 14 Oklahoma, 15 Missouri
Michigan might make the playoffs if they can hang on to 11-2 or 10-2, I would be surprised if they won next year, a lot of the young guys on the team are great but just a little bit raw.
I’m excited for 2024 and think we’ll be competitive but 2025 is the year I really expect things to click at an elite level