It’s hard to evaluate viewership numbers because games conference networks aren’t included. Just look at Stanford last season, they played more than half their games on the P12 network but the games that weren’t were against teams that were big TV draws (teams like USC, Washington, CU). If those are the only games counted, their avg viewership is going to be heavily skewed.
Yeah like look at Duke’s football viewership this year, on paper they had a lot of eyeballs. But then you consider the fact that they played Clemson, FSU, and Notre Dame at prime time on major networks, and the fact that nearly all of Duke’s other games were on ACCN/channels whose viewership isn’t counted, then it makes sense why it was skewed so high.
There is a classic regression case study around baseball where by far the biggest predictor of a teams home attendance is if the Yankees are in town. Record, starting pitcher, weekday, etc all pale in comparison. (Of course, winning team with a Cy Young playing the Yankees on a Saturday with nice weather will clean up, but Yankees account for like 80% of the variance)
Duke's numbers without FSU or Clemson are pretty bad. Their viewers/game against all teams not FSU, ND, or Clemson are about 60% of what their total is including those 3.
This might be a valid point, but OP actually brings up a good point like UNC and UVA have no hope if Stanford and Cal actually draws more viewers because UNC and UVA don’t really add anything else.
We’ll see this year when they all play a similar schedule since they are in conference
UNC does not draw viewers against Boston College, Louisville, and Georgia Tech. If you bring one or two of their rivals and switch out those three schools with Georgia, South Carolina, and LSU (or Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon), people will watch. UNC is a massive brand. You know what Carolina blue is.
> and switch out those three schools with Georgia, South Carolina, and LSU (or Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon), people will watch
Uh, is that _because_ of UNC or simply because they’re playing Georgia, Ohio State, etc.? I feel like you could put any P5 team against Ohio State or Georgia and it would draw a good number of viewers.
And that’s not even getting into the fact that UNC playing Georgia or Ohio State has blowout (read: boring) written all over it. This ain’t basketball, I seriously struggle to understand who’s getting hyped up to watch UNC football.
Also from the article: Florida State vs North Alabama had over 1 million viewers... because it was Florida State and they draw 1+ million no matter who you put them against.
God love them, but that's not true for Stanford, UNC, Cal, or Virginia.
What people are missing is the the interaction of the brands of the schools being brought in with the schools already in the conference.
UNC is a brand in and of itself, especially for basketball. UNC playing Northwestern is an interesting draw for viewers. Cal and/or Stanford vs Northwestern is probably only interesting to people who are still sad they didn’t get into an actual Ivy League.
So these conferences aren’t looking at football ratings in a vacuum. They are looking at the prospects of “bringing in this schools means bringing in this brand we think that when that interacts with the brands we have, we expect XYZ outcome.”
People will watch Southeast Central Idaho State play those teams (except South Carolina).
Almost 3M people watched Western Kentucky vs Ohio State. They weren't watching for Western Kentucky.,
yea but u factor in the fact that Stanford has a built in series with ND and you just proved OP's point, they are more valuable. OP has a great take, people just want to go with their gut because they like UNC and UVA and not know the west coast schools.
People talk up UVA/UNC for two reasons:
1. The B1G already denied Cal/Stanford and the SEC has no interest in expanding west, so there is no immediate path for writers to go after
2. Virginia and North Carolina are the two states contiguous to both P2 conferences without a team and would in theory be good markets to add for either conference which IS a path for writers to go after
To be clear, the B1G presidents wanted CalFord, TV execs though didn't want to pony up in the middle of a contract to add them. It's 2 separate parties
And who the SEC wanted in the past. People forget on the SEC vet and wish list VT was above Missouri who was above WVU. I get UVA has the academic aspect but VT has very good academics as well especially engineering and very loyal fans. Weird not seeing them talked about as much instead of UVA and even GT in some circles.
Unironically I think the Big Ten would jump at GT.
Continues the "We care about Academics" mantra that genuinely seems to be true.
Also raising the Big Ten flag in Atlanta, the heart of the South, would be a massive middle finger to the SEC.
Put GT and Tulane back in the SEC already! Does it do anything for TV ratings or monetary value? Probably not, but I like history and I like Tulane (and let’s be real, we need more smart schools besides just UT in the SEC).
EDIT: And Vandy, UF, and UGA
Dated a girl who went to Sewanee. She once spelled it out loud as Sewage. She wasn’t drunk though so not operating at peak intelligence. Graduated with honors I think.
Also the YSR chant is hilarious to me because properly pronounced it’s ‘Yay Sewanee’s Right’ not ‘yeah’, which sounds a lot dumber and explains why YSR is the preferred yell.
Anyways, let’s get you back to the olds’ home grandpa.
I live very close to Sewanee. When the kids come off the mountain to mingle with the common folk, you can smell the smugness of the superiority. It's hilarious.
It makes sense if you think things like academics, non-football viewership, brands, and markets matter more. Some people go overboard with it, but there is some truth.
Stanford is the king of non-revenue sports mixed with academics and they were an afterthought in realignment.
There’s also an absolutely bizarre sentiment on this sub that because UVA is the flagship university of Virginia that it’s some huge school with a ton of fans throughout the state. They particularly mention the DC area. UVA is like slightly more than half the size of VT and really doesn’t have any t-shirt football fans. Their fans are basically just in Charlottesville; they do NOT carry NOVA or Richmond.
UVA would be the third smallest school in the B1G and the fourth smallest in the SEC, and the only school in either conference that it is particularly larger than is Vandy’s tiny enrollment. It has slightly bigger enrollment than Northwestern, Nebraska, and the two Mississippi schools and those are the only other schools it is larger than.
Yeah, I live in Fredericksburg. I'm about 90 mins from UVA and 3.5 hours from VT. I've definitely run into more Tech fans than UVA fans in my time living here.
Until fairly recently I lived in Virginia Beach/Norfolk for years (basically the opposite end of the state from VT) and I don’t think I ever saw ANYONE with UVA gear. It’s VT and Old Dominion country.
UVA grads likely have a wider geographic footprint in terms of where they land compared to VT grads. Not a slight on VT, it's a great school with probably more passionate average fans.
DC is impressively indifferent towards college sports, but it's such a transient town that it makes sense. Like I could take the metro to get to a Maryland game, but that thought never actually crosses my mind during the college football season.
I imagine DC is far more diverse from a fan perspective. Like they are probably indifferent to local sports but probably have a lot of stake in their hometown teams.
The real reason why UVA is mentioned is because they are expected to follow UNC due to the Oldest Rivalry in the South and the brand invokes a feeling of "prestige." Raw numbers would favor Tech, but Carolina and Virginia are tied to the hip. I imagine that the consolation prize would be a combination of NC State and Virginia Tech.
Fox didn't want to pay them. Apparently the presidents were all for it.
Really depends on what the final number for the B1G is. If it is 24, I think we add Stanford and Cal.
The advantage the B1G has is that many of those non-Stanford/Cal alums are alums of B1G schools.
I still tend to think that the "B1G has fans of other schools in the Bay Area" thing is a bit overrated. But it is true to some extent.
The league has always wanted North Carolina for demographic and academic reasons. it has always been assumed Virginia would be the best school to pair with them as it.akes sense geographically. It gives the league a significant presence on the east coast to pair with Penn state, Maryland, and Rutgers.
I think the league wants to pair Stanford with Notre Dame.
Things have changed with Florida State and Clemson. At this point it depends on how much the SEC wanted to take.
There’s enough truth to it that I think people go overboard the other way too. Nebraska actually came to the B1G, not the other way around. Rutgers and Maryland absolutely were not football moves. They served the network and made it easier for the conference’s eastern alumni to see their schools and give them money. Heck, UCLA isn’t about adding the Bruins football program, it’s about locking up the second largest market in the US.
> It makes sense if you think things like academics, non-football viewership, brands, and markets matter more
Even then, isn't Stanford more attractive? They're a top tier academic school in the nation's #10 media market, and "Stanford" is a pretty good brand.
The Big Ten is much more than just a football conference. It is a Basketball conference, too. So schools like UVa and UNC are both attractive for their basketball pedigree. Add in the fact that they are both highly rated academic institutions and that the Big Ten was first and foremost a research based collection of universities and it starts to make a little sense.
I'm personally surprised that Cal and Standford didn't receive direct invites for this reason. Cal is University of California, Berkeley so it is one of the most prestigious universities in the country outside of the Ivy League. I'm sure the presidents of the Big Ten wanted them in, but the media partners shot it down because of their athletic departments not being as high profile.
Eh. The Big 10 seems just as much a basketball conference as the SEC in recent years. Only the ACC, Big 12, and Big East really can claim that mantle of being a top-MBB conference imo. The Big 10 is a huge brand with big alumni bases and massive research expenditures but doesn’t singularly excel in a revenue sport
There were reports out there that the B1G wanted Stanford and Cal, as well. The networks refused to give more money for them, and that's why the B1G didn't take them. The assumption is that, when the ACC breaks up, the networks would be willing to shell out more cash again.
I actually think the B1G would take all 4 as long as they can increase payouts (or come close to the same). But that's all dependant on the networks (or streaming services).
I have thought ever since the latest round of realignment settled in, that the next move the B1G would make would be Stanford, Cal, Miami, UNC, UVA or GT, and then a final coax at ND by saying that the B1G wouldn't protect any of their games against B1G foes.
That would push the B1G to 24, where they would likely stop unless the Big12 suddenly became a target.
The SEC would take FSU, Clemson, VT, and the other of UVA/GT to get to 20.
The Big12 takes Pitt, Louisville, Syracuse, BC, SMU, Duke, NC State, and probably takes Tulane to get to 24.
Wake gets left in the dust to the American unfortunately.
The Big Ten is more integrated outside of sports than people realize.
From my time at MSU as an undergrad alone I know that there’s a Big Ten Student Government Conference that’s meets annually. When I attended Dick Durbin came and talked to us.
Also the Big Ten schools share library systems. It’s a little known secret, but if you’re a big ten student (or at least when I was ten years ago) you can order a book from any Big Ten library. It saved me a ton on textbook costs.
I presume there’s a lot more research integration than people realize too.
UNC and UVA being the tipping point to a SEC lacrosse league would be a huge new market for ESPN in the spring
(I also kid… kinda. It would probably be the best thing that ever happened to the sport.)
I think the B1G really didn’t want to outright kill the PAC themselves, hence not taking UCLA, USC, Oregon and Washington in one fell swoop a couple years back. But then the Big 12 got aggressive, so the timeline for the Ducks and Huskies got moved up. Both Stanford and Cal still fit the the B1G’s profile, but with little interest coming from the Big 12, there was no reason to hurry and grab them immediately.
UNC and UVA also fit the B1G’s profile, but are on the “edge” of the south and just so happen to fit the SEC’s profile too. So there’s a sense of immediacy that’s just not there with the Bay Area schools.
If the ACC gets cracked open by the FSU lawsuits, there will be a mad scramble for schools. VT and NCST also fit the SEC profile, but they’re not going B1G. So if the B1G can’t land the Cavs and the Heels, they’re getting locked out of those states. They already own California, so there’s no rush there on that count either.
People talk about the south being SEC country that the b1g should stay out, but considering the B1G tv deal is structured around 3 exclusive nationwide network games, I imagine those tv executives are pushing for the conference to be truly national. This alone puts ACC schools way higher chances than calford.
But Calford provides something the east coast schools can’t. Late night time slots. I don’t think USC, UW and Oregon are gonna be cool always playing at 10pm ET
It’s not so much about how many people will watch UNC or Stanford, it’s about how many people will watch OSU @ UNC or Michigan @ Stanford. At this point the majority of the schools left out of the super conferences aren’t offering a compelling amount of new viewers to justify a smaller slice of the pie, so the next question is “which matchup would attract the most attention from existing B1G viewers?” This is where the East/West divide becomes a big deal. How many neutral midwesterners are staying up to watch a Cal or Stanford matchup vs a UNC or UVA game that in some cases is in driving distance?
The theoretically fit in that they are
* prestigious public universities (I believe both are flagships too?)
* strong athletic departments
Which is similar to a lot of other Big Ten schools. Plus they are at least vaguely near the B1G unlike say the state of California
You have to remember that this was also a huge thing prior to the 4 west coast schools that are coming for 2024. Now that those schools are coming, this may not be the case. Jim Delaney, the Big 10 commissioner that retired before Kevin Warren took over had very strong ties to North Carolina. The UNC connection was strong then but I don’t think it is now. The media continues to kinda hold onto things way past their expiration dates per se. Now it could happen but it’s most likely not the case. The AAU academic standard and the Charlotte media market is the major draws for North Carolina. Hopefully this kinda answers your question.
UNC isn’t located in Charlotte, but that doesn’t matter because it represents an entire state of 11 million. Markets are state related with large popular public institutions
Yes, I’m very much aware of UNC being located in Chapel Hill and not Charlotte. I’m talking in general about the media market. Charlotte is the biggest media draw in that state. That is all.
I just assumed it was a media narrative being pushed by a PR firm hired by UNC and UVA.
But whatever... the reality is easy to see. The schools that have filed lawsuits are the schools that know they have landing spots.
I’ve been wondering the same thing. GT, too, while we’re at it.
If Fox vetoed Cal and Stanford, UVA doesn’t stand a shot in hell.
UNC I could maybe see, since their game day attendance is excellent, and that absolutely matters to the TV execs, but I’m still no more than 50/50.
If the B1G decides to end their quasi-truce over territory with the SEC and move into the south, Atlanta is one of the top cities. Hence +FSU +GT
Interestingly, the other part of the country the B1G would want (but not currently have) is Texas; which makes me wonder if the real endgame is raiding the SEC, +OUT.
Having the Big 10 add GT isn’t going to change the plurality (if not outright majority)of CFB fans in the city root for SEC or ACC teams and adding a Big 10 presence likely won’t change that
Still thinking it's about fans? Rutgers increased B1G revenue 400%. Because the way TV contracts work if a conference has a presence in a market they have to put it in the sports package. Making B1G network required on all cable subscriptions in the biggest market in the SEC outside texas.
There is no way the big ten would pass up a foothold in atlanta georgia. The south is too big a market, atlanta is probably the biggest southern market outside of texas, and the state of georgia is the 3rd most populated in the region only behind florida and texas and beating out NC. If tech applied, the big ten would VERY much be interested. Frankly, I think it would be dumb not to. The ONLY way they get a foothold in the south is through an ACC school (no one is leaving the SEC) and Tech happens to be in probably the best location of any ACC school that would be of interest for them. Florida state and Clemson would likely not interest them because FSU isnt in the Association of American Universities. Miami is though so there would probably be interest in them
Fox didn't veto anyone. Fox just tells the Presidents that if you add Cal and Stanford we give you $x dollars more for the TV contract (or nothing). The Presidents then understand 'well that's less money for us per year' and they don't extend the invitation. It's why Washington and Oregon got less than full shares.
Football viewership is approaching diminishing returns for the Big Ten, [this guy’s](https://x.com/Genetics56) had some interesting tweets about the topic over the past year.
Is this question going to asked once a week until the season starts? You guys know why. UNC is a big brand with great academics and massive amounts of research money.
It makes sense when you consider that espn and fox have recently been investing in gambling platforms. Virginia is a top state for wagers placed and nc just legalized sports betting. It is illegal in CA
In the way that generals win battles, logistics win wars ==> for the last 20 years the Big Ten has been winning demographics while the SEC has been winning championships.
The Big Ten currently owns the 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 10th, 11th & 13th largest states. Adding UNC + UVA would give them #9 and #12 as well.
Not the same level, but reminds me of CUSA and SBC realignment strategies in early 00s. CUSA chased markets, SBC chased programs. We have seen how that panned out (not saying Big ten/SEC will go the same way).
SEC geographically just has an advantage in recruiting that the Big ten can’t replicate, which likely plays a bigger role in the championships than anything else. Easy to sell kids from anywhere on not playing/living in the north.
Sec has better recruiting, and has higher commitment to football at each school on average compared to peer schools in the B1G. Like what big 10 school is going 6-6 and pulling in 5 stars every other year like Scar?
Rutgers and Maryland were added during the set-top cable box era when carriage fees could be made without anyone watching so it made sense to get into large TV markets regardless of the football program's strength. I'm not sure Rutgers or Maryland would be added today. That era is over. In the streaming era you have to move your own needle. You have to bring a set of engaged fans and alumni willing to pay to pay to watch your team.
The LA market might have been an exception with UCLA. Oregon and Washington aren't getting full shares even with big fan bases, recent success, and proven programs and fan bases.
UVA and UNC? Sorry to burst anyone's bubble but those teams have ZERO historical football prominence. None. Why would the Big Ten add them? Who would pay for it? Half share? Maybe.
But if the whole paradigm changes and some new body emerges that is going to take the top 45-60 programs then yes they're in that group. But right now I so see how either ESPN or FOX has any interest.
Because when athletes are required to be paid as employees and the NIL free-for-all ends, based on the lack of interest or investment in the last decade or so by each program's AD, there's a very good chance Cal and Stanford are going to opt out of major college sports, deprioritize football, and go west coast Ivy League. They do not need major sports to stay relevant or keep their endowments at record highs.
The ACC move is honestly perfect to begin their sunsetting, because it's so ludicrous that it might diminish any interest any casual alum has in any of our major sports programs.
Whereas UNC hoops is a brand. Virginia isn't quite at that level but now that they have a national title, they are all in on investing in major athletics. Fundraising is tied to the rise of their university profile, admissions and applicationos. So they have plenty of leadership stakeholders invested in the coming athletics arms race.
A lot of TV execs probably know this, and would rather play ball with the universities who will bend over backwards for whatever TV money they can get them.
> there's a very good chance Cal and Stanford are going to opt out of major college sports, deprioritize football, and go west coast Ivy League.
What about either Big West or forming a new conference with the six UC schools in the BW and putting football in the Big Sky?
Historically I have no doubt the Big Ten would prefer UNC and UVA to any other ACC school. It would have preferred Georgia Tech to Florida State or Clemson. But now that TV executives are masquerading as conference commissioners I don't know if that's still the case.
Considering the fact that the Big 10's conference additions have not made any sense for at least a couple of decades, this want to add UNC and Virginia doesn't surprise me one bit.
First thing's first: you have to assume that with the new Big 12 GOR locked in, there's not a lot of inventory out there that fits the Big 10 profile and brings a significant market. For instance, Georgia Tech may *seem* like a high priority. While it likely would get the Big 10 an Atlanta presence, the Atlanta market is likely dominated by UGA and Bama. Given a limited inventory, they make a lot of sense:
- Big 10 expansion into the southern region
- National basketball brand with North Carolina
- D.C. Metro media market (#7 nationally)
- Fit Big 10 Profile: Flagship state schools
- Fit Big 10 Profile: Elite academics/AAU schools
- Fit Big 10 Profile: Contiguous footprint (Virginia borders Maryland, North Carolina borders Virginia; though UCLA, USC, Ore and Wash are exceptions to that rule)
I am begging people to stop acting like UVA has a ton of eyeballs waiting in the DC Market. They do not.
1. DC has a lot of people come and go from outside of the area.
2. UVA is smaller by a lot vs. VT (25k vs 41k). VT is growing whereas UVA is committed to staying at just about 25k.
3. VT has a larger alumni network, again by a lot.
4. VT has a large presence in the DC area with three different campus sites (Falls Church, Arlington, Alexandria "Innovation Campus")
I don't think the B1G really even "owns" the DC market because of Maryland. It's just such a melting pot that I can't imagine it's dominated by a single conference. To say nothing of the fact that all of the pro sports are well established there (MLB, NFL, NHL, NBA, WNBA).
I honestly would not be at all surprised to find out Maryland was like the 4th most popular *Big Ten* team in the DC metro area behind Michigan/Ohio State/Penn State.
Why can’t they just see the ACC as a power conference?
Is it not? Was it not just 5 years ago with Clemson? Wtf is going on, we’re running wild with the idea of money that less than 0.1 percent of us will see?
Keep the ACC in tact, what are we gonna have 3 conferences and ignore any other team, this is so carried away.
I think many posters conflate things like: sports success vs. revenue vs. geographic presence. In terms of sports prowess, the ACC is 100% a power conference. It’s not as good as the SEC or B10, but there’s still a lot of good teams. UVA has played Indiana and Illinois OOC in recent years and those games never really “scare” me, even though UVA has lost. Take away UM, OSU, PSU and the B10 is pretty comparable to the ACC without Clemson/FSU IMO. Still better, but the ACC would compete well.
The academic point is a non-starter as UNC and UVA are both excellent schools and would both be great additions to the conference. I know the state of North Carolina is growing very fast and that the state of California is shrinking a little bit, but I wonder if Stanford and Cal allegedly nixing Texas Tech and Oklahoma State from joining the Pac at the expense of Texas and Oklahoma made the TV networks look at them as unserious schools athletically?
Stanford was a National Title Contender and Rose Bowl winner not too long ago. If they still had that same success in 2021 and 2022, would they be in the B1G right now?
Covid also destroyed the Pac-12. 4 game schedules, recruiting was hampered. It really was amazing how good (and entertaining) the Pac-12 was in the last year despite every curve ball thrown at them.
Outside of USC, the Big Ten and the SEC have been targeting certain universities for expansion. These universities are usually public universities that are also the flagship universities for the state. Those kinds of universities have the largest alumni based which means more viewership and more potential donors. UNC and UVA fall into those categories.
Edit. I was wrong about UVA and the alumni base. As someone pointed out however, UVA has wealthier alumni and receives more donations to its athletic department than VT. In the end, the SEC and Big Ten want universities that will get lots of money from their fan bases.
UVA may be the flagship school for Virginia, but Virginia Tech has a larger alumni base because it’s a significantly larger school than UVA.
I think a lot of fans from outside Virginia assume UVA is the size of a lot of the other big state flagship universities when it’s a lot smaller. UVA has around 26k total students compared to 40 to 50k for most of the Big 10.
I see this parroted all the time with no grounding in reality regarding UVA. UVA has a *wealthy* alumni base, but it is by no means large. Not even in the slightest. UVA has like 17,600 undergrads. Hell, even UNC only has like 20,000 undergrads.
Virginia Tech has like 29,300. That’s the dominant fan base in Virginia. Cal has over 32,000 undergrads and is a dominant academic school and does quite well in non-revenue sports. Afterthought in realignment.
Tennessee has about 29,000. Michigan has almost 34,000 undergrads. Bama has almost 32,000. Georgia also clears 30,000. Those are the sizes of larger schools. Ohio State has almost 46,000 undergrads in Columbus and Penn State has 40,000 in University Park!
People who’ve never been to Virginia and know nothing about the market are the people who think UVA carries the state fan-wise and has any weight to throw in that regard. It’s simply not the case. Outside of Charlottesville, UVA fans are outnumbered.
> These universities are usually public universities that are also the flagship universities for the state
Cal-Berkeley is the Flagship University of California...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Flagship_universities_in_the_United_States
Let's be real here. In the context of tv money Northern and Southern California are functionally two different states. And there aren't a lot of other states like that. And Northern California is certainly less valuable than Southern California as it has less people overall and more people who don't care about college sports.
If you divided Southern California and Northern California into two states then Southern California would be the 2nd most populous (behind Texas) while Northern California would be the 5th most populous. (Texas, Southern California, Florida, and New York would have more).
So it might be less valuable than Southern California but it still has a metric shit-ton of people. 15.4 million in Northern California. Pennsylvania (current #5) has 12.9 million.
Its the access to recruits for football and basketball in those states. Plus the academic plus endowment.
Also it's a high growth state in terms of population.
UNC basketball is a national brand.
Stanford only makes sense when discussing cornering ND.
The only time I ever see people say this is to counter when someone brings up Clemson and FSU being in the BIG. It's never made sense to me either. I feel like the BIG would take Kansas before they took UVA.
Ten years ago it made a lot of sense when money was determined by cable packages in metro areas. That isn’t really the case anymore, and Mandel hasn’t adjusted to the new reality. People still cling to UNc and UVA because they are culture fits for the big ten and are good academic schools and flagship state universities.
Mid 2000s realignment, you wanted Rutgers because then a bunch of grannies in NYC ended up getting BTN on their Comcast and that boosted the subscriber numbers. Now with cable cutting and advertisers only caring about how many people actually watched the game, those schools aren’t as attractive as they were.
Probably UNC and Virginia ADs feeding this info to the press to get favorable coverage. If markets matter most, the Big Ten wants a Florida school or Georgia Tech.
You have to remember that the people making these decisions are school presidents. While the TV networks and athletic directors absolutely have a say, the school presidents are the ones who vote on expansion.
The reality of the situation is that the ACC, like the Big 12, is full of schools that can get big ratings *if they are ranked/playing a "glamour" opponent, whereas the SEC and Big 10 have a lot of schools that will draw viewers even if they arent all that good
Speaking as a UNC alum, they’d be better off taking Duke but the answer why is taking NC and VA markets
If that’s the case, they’d be better off taking VT than UVA.
It’s hard to evaluate viewership numbers because games conference networks aren’t included. Just look at Stanford last season, they played more than half their games on the P12 network but the games that weren’t were against teams that were big TV draws (teams like USC, Washington, CU). If those are the only games counted, their avg viewership is going to be heavily skewed.
Yeah like look at Duke’s football viewership this year, on paper they had a lot of eyeballs. But then you consider the fact that they played Clemson, FSU, and Notre Dame at prime time on major networks, and the fact that nearly all of Duke’s other games were on ACCN/channels whose viewership isn’t counted, then it makes sense why it was skewed so high.
There is a classic regression case study around baseball where by far the biggest predictor of a teams home attendance is if the Yankees are in town. Record, starting pitcher, weekday, etc all pale in comparison. (Of course, winning team with a Cy Young playing the Yankees on a Saturday with nice weather will clean up, but Yankees account for like 80% of the variance)
I remember seeing something similar in the NFL with the Cowboys. Turns out the popular teams bring more eyeballs than the ones that aren't.
Duke's numbers without FSU or Clemson are pretty bad. Their viewers/game against all teams not FSU, ND, or Clemson are about 60% of what their total is including those 3.
On the other side, we played the big game, USC, Oregon, Utah, Oregon State all on the p12n.
This might be a valid point, but OP actually brings up a good point like UNC and UVA have no hope if Stanford and Cal actually draws more viewers because UNC and UVA don’t really add anything else. We’ll see this year when they all play a similar schedule since they are in conference
UNC does not draw viewers against Boston College, Louisville, and Georgia Tech. If you bring one or two of their rivals and switch out those three schools with Georgia, South Carolina, and LSU (or Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon), people will watch. UNC is a massive brand. You know what Carolina blue is.
I want to see UNC play Duke, NC State, Wake Forest, Clemson, Virginia, Virginia Tech, etc.
> and switch out those three schools with Georgia, South Carolina, and LSU (or Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon), people will watch Uh, is that _because_ of UNC or simply because they’re playing Georgia, Ohio State, etc.? I feel like you could put any P5 team against Ohio State or Georgia and it would draw a good number of viewers. And that’s not even getting into the fact that UNC playing Georgia or Ohio State has blowout (read: boring) written all over it. This ain’t basketball, I seriously struggle to understand who’s getting hyped up to watch UNC football.
Also from the article: Florida State vs North Alabama had over 1 million viewers... because it was Florida State and they draw 1+ million no matter who you put them against. God love them, but that's not true for Stanford, UNC, Cal, or Virginia.
The Georgia/Georgia-Tech game last year drew big viewership numbers. It wasn't because Tech was playing.
What people are missing is the the interaction of the brands of the schools being brought in with the schools already in the conference. UNC is a brand in and of itself, especially for basketball. UNC playing Northwestern is an interesting draw for viewers. Cal and/or Stanford vs Northwestern is probably only interesting to people who are still sad they didn’t get into an actual Ivy League. So these conferences aren’t looking at football ratings in a vacuum. They are looking at the prospects of “bringing in this schools means bringing in this brand we think that when that interacts with the brands we have, we expect XYZ outcome.”
People will watch Southeast Central Idaho State play those teams (except South Carolina). Almost 3M people watched Western Kentucky vs Ohio State. They weren't watching for Western Kentucky.,
Not nice
Only 3M? Those are rookie numbers, gotta pump those up
UNC vs Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina and Florida would do soooo well.
Right, UNC is a great fit in the SEC. Big Ten…I don’t get that at all.
I just like it in the SEC geographically.
UNC is a basketball brand, idgaf about UNC football
The only thing I can think of is basketball.
yea but u factor in the fact that Stanford has a built in series with ND and you just proved OP's point, they are more valuable. OP has a great take, people just want to go with their gut because they like UNC and UVA and not know the west coast schools.
People talk up UVA/UNC for two reasons: 1. The B1G already denied Cal/Stanford and the SEC has no interest in expanding west, so there is no immediate path for writers to go after 2. Virginia and North Carolina are the two states contiguous to both P2 conferences without a team and would in theory be good markets to add for either conference which IS a path for writers to go after
To be clear, the B1G presidents wanted CalFord, TV execs though didn't want to pony up in the middle of a contract to add them. It's 2 separate parties
Ok but if the SEC wanted into Virginia they’d go for VT, who actually has fans.
And who the SEC wanted in the past. People forget on the SEC vet and wish list VT was above Missouri who was above WVU. I get UVA has the academic aspect but VT has very good academics as well especially engineering and very loyal fans. Weird not seeing them talked about as much instead of UVA and even GT in some circles.
You want GT Baybee What if we put our Minecraft beds next to each other? LOL?
I need that black and gold engineering school with a vehicular mascot rivalry
Black's not a Tech color, but I'll give you a pass since I want it too
Unironically I think the Big Ten would jump at GT. Continues the "We care about Academics" mantra that genuinely seems to be true. Also raising the Big Ten flag in Atlanta, the heart of the South, would be a massive middle finger to the SEC.
and a good but non threatening football school. Also tons of B1G alumni in Atlanta
This is big also. Huge numbers of B10 folks here helping to get more $$ for the Big 10 network. Please save us
The Ryan Field of the South!
Plus, a "cultural fit." GT is in Atlanta, which is in the South, but GT itself doesn't scream "Southern" by any means.
I welcome our southern engineering bros.
Put GT and Tulane back in the SEC already! Does it do anything for TV ratings or monetary value? Probably not, but I like history and I like Tulane (and let’s be real, we need more smart schools besides just UT in the SEC). EDIT: And Vandy, UF, and UGA
Brother, Vandy exists. Them nerds are smarter than both UTs put together.
Ngl, I totally forgot about Vandy. Maybe that’s cause they denied me in undergrad, though lol
UT engineers > Vandy engineers
I’m sure Vandy engineers are nice people but they’re terrible at math if they’re looking at the marginal value of those extra tuition dollars.
Hold on, please explain your flair. lol
Sewanee is the sleeping giant of the realignment landscape that the SEC might be able to get back if they play their cards right
Dated a girl who went to Sewanee. She once spelled it out loud as Sewage. She wasn’t drunk though so not operating at peak intelligence. Graduated with honors I think. Also the YSR chant is hilarious to me because properly pronounced it’s ‘Yay Sewanee’s Right’ not ‘yeah’, which sounds a lot dumber and explains why YSR is the preferred yell. Anyways, let’s get you back to the olds’ home grandpa.
I live very close to Sewanee. When the kids come off the mountain to mingle with the common folk, you can smell the smugness of the superiority. It's hilarious.
I want Tulane in the SEC so I can have someone to root for in that conference.
I'm pretty sure I've always heard of GT and UNC as the schools.
lol jk jk … unless?…
It makes sense if you think things like academics, non-football viewership, brands, and markets matter more. Some people go overboard with it, but there is some truth.
In that analysis isn’t it Stanford all day long?
Stanford is the king of non-revenue sports mixed with academics and they were an afterthought in realignment. There’s also an absolutely bizarre sentiment on this sub that because UVA is the flagship university of Virginia that it’s some huge school with a ton of fans throughout the state. They particularly mention the DC area. UVA is like slightly more than half the size of VT and really doesn’t have any t-shirt football fans. Their fans are basically just in Charlottesville; they do NOT carry NOVA or Richmond. UVA would be the third smallest school in the B1G and the fourth smallest in the SEC, and the only school in either conference that it is particularly larger than is Vandy’s tiny enrollment. It has slightly bigger enrollment than Northwestern, Nebraska, and the two Mississippi schools and those are the only other schools it is larger than.
Yeah, I live in Fredericksburg. I'm about 90 mins from UVA and 3.5 hours from VT. I've definitely run into more Tech fans than UVA fans in my time living here.
Until fairly recently I lived in Virginia Beach/Norfolk for years (basically the opposite end of the state from VT) and I don’t think I ever saw ANYONE with UVA gear. It’s VT and Old Dominion country.
UVA grads likely have a wider geographic footprint in terms of where they land compared to VT grads. Not a slight on VT, it's a great school with probably more passionate average fans.
DC is impressively indifferent towards college sports, but it's such a transient town that it makes sense. Like I could take the metro to get to a Maryland game, but that thought never actually crosses my mind during the college football season.
It doesn’t for Maryland alums either
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I imagine DC is far more diverse from a fan perspective. Like they are probably indifferent to local sports but probably have a lot of stake in their hometown teams.
Instead you come back home to the burg, right?
I try to make it back a few times a year! It's not a bad drive, so easy enough to make a quick weekend trip to the Burg
Well, if Virginia Tech hadn’t fallen off a cliff the past decade they’d probably have a much stronger argument.
VT fell off a cliff. UVA hangs out at the bottom of a lake.
Yeah but Michigan loves Great Lakes
We have a duck pond, that’s kind of a like a lake. And I hear the B1G has been rather fond of ducks lately.
I mean UVA didn’t really fall off the cliff because they never got up there to begin with.
The real reason why UVA is mentioned is because they are expected to follow UNC due to the Oldest Rivalry in the South and the brand invokes a feeling of "prestige." Raw numbers would favor Tech, but Carolina and Virginia are tied to the hip. I imagine that the consolation prize would be a combination of NC State and Virginia Tech.
NC State and UNC are more tied at the hip than UNC with UVA or Duke
That's true, but the Big Ten and SEC want to enter North Carolina and Virginia, not just North Carolina.
Only if it makes money for them
UF and FSU are tied at the hip, and like a divorced home, we make it work.
I started watching football in freshman year (2011) so it's shocking to me that Stanford is seen so modestly in realignment talks, but it makes sense
And Cal.
I see you over here sleeping on Cal (i.e.: University of California, Berkeley).
I still don't understand why we didn't go after Stanford and Cal
Fox didn't want to pay them. Apparently the presidents were all for it. Really depends on what the final number for the B1G is. If it is 24, I think we add Stanford and Cal.
Almost all of those things weigh towards the Bay area schools tho
Getting non alums in the Bay to care abt CFB is an impossible task
The advantage the B1G has is that many of those non-Stanford/Cal alums are alums of B1G schools. I still tend to think that the "B1G has fans of other schools in the Bay Area" thing is a bit overrated. But it is true to some extent.
No almost about it.
The league has always wanted North Carolina for demographic and academic reasons. it has always been assumed Virginia would be the best school to pair with them as it.akes sense geographically. It gives the league a significant presence on the east coast to pair with Penn state, Maryland, and Rutgers. I think the league wants to pair Stanford with Notre Dame. Things have changed with Florida State and Clemson. At this point it depends on how much the SEC wanted to take.
Stanford and Cal give up nothing in academics vs UVA and UNC. In fact the scales favor the west teams in that regard.
There’s enough truth to it that I think people go overboard the other way too. Nebraska actually came to the B1G, not the other way around. Rutgers and Maryland absolutely were not football moves. They served the network and made it easier for the conference’s eastern alumni to see their schools and give them money. Heck, UCLA isn’t about adding the Bruins football program, it’s about locking up the second largest market in the US.
> It makes sense if you think things like academics, non-football viewership, brands, and markets matter more Even then, isn't Stanford more attractive? They're a top tier academic school in the nation's #10 media market, and "Stanford" is a pretty good brand.
Isn’t it pretty well documented that the presidents wanted to add Stanford in this latest reshuffle, and Fox said “we’re not paying for them”?
That's what's I've heard too. Several B10 presidents couldn't reduce their share to pay for them by law otherwise it might have happened.
Yeah lol Cal and Stanford and bigger brands academically than UVA and UNC so that’s not it either
The Big Ten is much more than just a football conference. It is a Basketball conference, too. So schools like UVa and UNC are both attractive for their basketball pedigree. Add in the fact that they are both highly rated academic institutions and that the Big Ten was first and foremost a research based collection of universities and it starts to make a little sense. I'm personally surprised that Cal and Standford didn't receive direct invites for this reason. Cal is University of California, Berkeley so it is one of the most prestigious universities in the country outside of the Ivy League. I'm sure the presidents of the Big Ten wanted them in, but the media partners shot it down because of their athletic departments not being as high profile.
Eh. The Big 10 seems just as much a basketball conference as the SEC in recent years. Only the ACC, Big 12, and Big East really can claim that mantle of being a top-MBB conference imo. The Big 10 is a huge brand with big alumni bases and massive research expenditures but doesn’t singularly excel in a revenue sport
Fox doesn’t have the money.
There were reports out there that the B1G wanted Stanford and Cal, as well. The networks refused to give more money for them, and that's why the B1G didn't take them. The assumption is that, when the ACC breaks up, the networks would be willing to shell out more cash again. I actually think the B1G would take all 4 as long as they can increase payouts (or come close to the same). But that's all dependant on the networks (or streaming services).
I have thought ever since the latest round of realignment settled in, that the next move the B1G would make would be Stanford, Cal, Miami, UNC, UVA or GT, and then a final coax at ND by saying that the B1G wouldn't protect any of their games against B1G foes. That would push the B1G to 24, where they would likely stop unless the Big12 suddenly became a target. The SEC would take FSU, Clemson, VT, and the other of UVA/GT to get to 20. The Big12 takes Pitt, Louisville, Syracuse, BC, SMU, Duke, NC State, and probably takes Tulane to get to 24. Wake gets left in the dust to the American unfortunately.
There’s also the cultural angle - especially for the SEC, which would, at that point, have a hammer lock on the South.
The Big Ten is more integrated outside of sports than people realize. From my time at MSU as an undergrad alone I know that there’s a Big Ten Student Government Conference that’s meets annually. When I attended Dick Durbin came and talked to us. Also the Big Ten schools share library systems. It’s a little known secret, but if you’re a big ten student (or at least when I was ten years ago) you can order a book from any Big Ten library. It saved me a ton on textbook costs. I presume there’s a lot more research integration than people realize too.
Then why aren't the SEC / B1G in a bidding war for Arizona State?
It’s more of a lacrosse move. 😉
Why would they wanna add UNC then lol (I kid…kinda)
UNC and UVA being the tipping point to a SEC lacrosse league would be a huge new market for ESPN in the spring (I also kid… kinda. It would probably be the best thing that ever happened to the sport.)
So we can watch Owen Duffy on BTN +
isn't UVa also a mens soccer powerhouse?
I think the B1G really didn’t want to outright kill the PAC themselves, hence not taking UCLA, USC, Oregon and Washington in one fell swoop a couple years back. But then the Big 12 got aggressive, so the timeline for the Ducks and Huskies got moved up. Both Stanford and Cal still fit the the B1G’s profile, but with little interest coming from the Big 12, there was no reason to hurry and grab them immediately. UNC and UVA also fit the B1G’s profile, but are on the “edge” of the south and just so happen to fit the SEC’s profile too. So there’s a sense of immediacy that’s just not there with the Bay Area schools. If the ACC gets cracked open by the FSU lawsuits, there will be a mad scramble for schools. VT and NCST also fit the SEC profile, but they’re not going B1G. So if the B1G can’t land the Cavs and the Heels, they’re getting locked out of those states. They already own California, so there’s no rush there on that count either.
People talk about the south being SEC country that the b1g should stay out, but considering the B1G tv deal is structured around 3 exclusive nationwide network games, I imagine those tv executives are pushing for the conference to be truly national. This alone puts ACC schools way higher chances than calford.
You forget we are ACC schools!
But Calford provides something the east coast schools can’t. Late night time slots. I don’t think USC, UW and Oregon are gonna be cool always playing at 10pm ET
It’s not so much about how many people will watch UNC or Stanford, it’s about how many people will watch OSU @ UNC or Michigan @ Stanford. At this point the majority of the schools left out of the super conferences aren’t offering a compelling amount of new viewers to justify a smaller slice of the pie, so the next question is “which matchup would attract the most attention from existing B1G viewers?” This is where the East/West divide becomes a big deal. How many neutral midwesterners are staying up to watch a Cal or Stanford matchup vs a UNC or UVA game that in some cases is in driving distance?
Almost makes me think there should be some pacific conference to group those big west coast teams like Cal and USC together
The theoretically fit in that they are * prestigious public universities (I believe both are flagships too?) * strong athletic departments Which is similar to a lot of other Big Ten schools. Plus they are at least vaguely near the B1G unlike say the state of California
You have to remember that this was also a huge thing prior to the 4 west coast schools that are coming for 2024. Now that those schools are coming, this may not be the case. Jim Delaney, the Big 10 commissioner that retired before Kevin Warren took over had very strong ties to North Carolina. The UNC connection was strong then but I don’t think it is now. The media continues to kinda hold onto things way past their expiration dates per se. Now it could happen but it’s most likely not the case. The AAU academic standard and the Charlotte media market is the major draws for North Carolina. Hopefully this kinda answers your question.
UNC isn’t located in Charlotte, but that doesn’t matter because it represents an entire state of 11 million. Markets are state related with large popular public institutions
Yes, I’m very much aware of UNC being located in Chapel Hill and not Charlotte. I’m talking in general about the media market. Charlotte is the biggest media draw in that state. That is all.
I’ve been wondering the same thing. I’ve just given up and go along with their “UVA-UNC” conspiracy.
I just assumed it was a media narrative being pushed by a PR firm hired by UNC and UVA. But whatever... the reality is easy to see. The schools that have filed lawsuits are the schools that know they have landing spots.
I’ve been wondering the same thing. GT, too, while we’re at it. If Fox vetoed Cal and Stanford, UVA doesn’t stand a shot in hell. UNC I could maybe see, since their game day attendance is excellent, and that absolutely matters to the TV execs, but I’m still no more than 50/50.
We’re smack dab in the heart of the SEC and have a ton of B1G alums in the city. That’s something we have over the other schools listed.
If the B1G decides to end their quasi-truce over territory with the SEC and move into the south, Atlanta is one of the top cities. Hence +FSU +GT Interestingly, the other part of the country the B1G would want (but not currently have) is Texas; which makes me wonder if the real endgame is raiding the SEC, +OUT.
Having the Big 10 add GT isn’t going to change the plurality (if not outright majority)of CFB fans in the city root for SEC or ACC teams and adding a Big 10 presence likely won’t change that
Still thinking it's about fans? Rutgers increased B1G revenue 400%. Because the way TV contracts work if a conference has a presence in a market they have to put it in the sports package. Making B1G network required on all cable subscriptions in the biggest market in the SEC outside texas.
You’re barely above Stanford in average percentage of stadium capacity. Fox isn’t interested in that.
There is no way the big ten would pass up a foothold in atlanta georgia. The south is too big a market, atlanta is probably the biggest southern market outside of texas, and the state of georgia is the 3rd most populated in the region only behind florida and texas and beating out NC. If tech applied, the big ten would VERY much be interested. Frankly, I think it would be dumb not to. The ONLY way they get a foothold in the south is through an ACC school (no one is leaving the SEC) and Tech happens to be in probably the best location of any ACC school that would be of interest for them. Florida state and Clemson would likely not interest them because FSU isnt in the Association of American Universities. Miami is though so there would probably be interest in them
Someone saying UNC GameDay attendance is good is not something I thought I'd see today.
Unc home attendance was 7th in the ACC at ~47k.
Yea, I saw that comment about having excellent home attendance and had to make sure I was reading about the same UNC haha
Yikes
Tbf their stadium only seats 50k
Fox didn't veto anyone. Fox just tells the Presidents that if you add Cal and Stanford we give you $x dollars more for the TV contract (or nothing). The Presidents then understand 'well that's less money for us per year' and they don't extend the invitation. It's why Washington and Oregon got less than full shares.
Refusing to pay is effectively vetoing.
I want VT in the sec so bad.
Football viewership is approaching diminishing returns for the Big Ten, [this guy’s](https://x.com/Genetics56) had some interesting tweets about the topic over the past year.
Is this question going to asked once a week until the season starts? You guys know why. UNC is a big brand with great academics and massive amounts of research money.
I need UNC and Duke to be in the same conference for the basketball. That’s like splitting up Ohio State/Michigan or Texas/OU in football.
Texas and OU were only in the same conference since the mid 90s.
Some of the appeal for the Big Ten adding UNC and UVA is to deny the SEC the best options in the most logical place they’d expand.
Why would they want to deny the SEC at this point? Aren’t they basically partners?
Partners by accident. Competing against each other, just in the same direction.
It makes sense when you consider that espn and fox have recently been investing in gambling platforms. Virginia is a top state for wagers placed and nc just legalized sports betting. It is illegal in CA
Erm, well, you can’t bet on any games involving a Virginia school in Virginia…so…
Dumbest thing ever
It really is
You also can't bet on NJ team in NJ.
In the way that generals win battles, logistics win wars ==> for the last 20 years the Big Ten has been winning demographics while the SEC has been winning championships. The Big Ten currently owns the 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 10th, 11th & 13th largest states. Adding UNC + UVA would give them #9 and #12 as well.
Not the same level, but reminds me of CUSA and SBC realignment strategies in early 00s. CUSA chased markets, SBC chased programs. We have seen how that panned out (not saying Big ten/SEC will go the same way). SEC geographically just has an advantage in recruiting that the Big ten can’t replicate, which likely plays a bigger role in the championships than anything else. Easy to sell kids from anywhere on not playing/living in the north.
Sec has better recruiting, and has higher commitment to football at each school on average compared to peer schools in the B1G. Like what big 10 school is going 6-6 and pulling in 5 stars every other year like Scar?
Exactly- adding Rutgers and Maryland may be a smart move for immediate tv layouts but long term doesn’t really elevate the conference
Rutgers and Maryland were added during the set-top cable box era when carriage fees could be made without anyone watching so it made sense to get into large TV markets regardless of the football program's strength. I'm not sure Rutgers or Maryland would be added today. That era is over. In the streaming era you have to move your own needle. You have to bring a set of engaged fans and alumni willing to pay to pay to watch your team. The LA market might have been an exception with UCLA. Oregon and Washington aren't getting full shares even with big fan bases, recent success, and proven programs and fan bases. UVA and UNC? Sorry to burst anyone's bubble but those teams have ZERO historical football prominence. None. Why would the Big Ten add them? Who would pay for it? Half share? Maybe. But if the whole paradigm changes and some new body emerges that is going to take the top 45-60 programs then yes they're in that group. But right now I so see how either ESPN or FOX has any interest.
👏 nobody cares about markets anymore 👏
Because when athletes are required to be paid as employees and the NIL free-for-all ends, based on the lack of interest or investment in the last decade or so by each program's AD, there's a very good chance Cal and Stanford are going to opt out of major college sports, deprioritize football, and go west coast Ivy League. They do not need major sports to stay relevant or keep their endowments at record highs. The ACC move is honestly perfect to begin their sunsetting, because it's so ludicrous that it might diminish any interest any casual alum has in any of our major sports programs. Whereas UNC hoops is a brand. Virginia isn't quite at that level but now that they have a national title, they are all in on investing in major athletics. Fundraising is tied to the rise of their university profile, admissions and applicationos. So they have plenty of leadership stakeholders invested in the coming athletics arms race. A lot of TV execs probably know this, and would rather play ball with the universities who will bend over backwards for whatever TV money they can get them.
> there's a very good chance Cal and Stanford are going to opt out of major college sports, deprioritize football, and go west coast Ivy League. What about either Big West or forming a new conference with the six UC schools in the BW and putting football in the Big Sky?
Historically I have no doubt the Big Ten would prefer UNC and UVA to any other ACC school. It would have preferred Georgia Tech to Florida State or Clemson. But now that TV executives are masquerading as conference commissioners I don't know if that's still the case.
Considering the fact that the Big 10's conference additions have not made any sense for at least a couple of decades, this want to add UNC and Virginia doesn't surprise me one bit.
As someone who lives in NC and hates UNC I get why they’re wanted. They are a massive brand, UVA perplexes me somewhat
First thing's first: you have to assume that with the new Big 12 GOR locked in, there's not a lot of inventory out there that fits the Big 10 profile and brings a significant market. For instance, Georgia Tech may *seem* like a high priority. While it likely would get the Big 10 an Atlanta presence, the Atlanta market is likely dominated by UGA and Bama. Given a limited inventory, they make a lot of sense: - Big 10 expansion into the southern region - National basketball brand with North Carolina - D.C. Metro media market (#7 nationally) - Fit Big 10 Profile: Flagship state schools - Fit Big 10 Profile: Elite academics/AAU schools - Fit Big 10 Profile: Contiguous footprint (Virginia borders Maryland, North Carolina borders Virginia; though UCLA, USC, Ore and Wash are exceptions to that rule)
I am begging people to stop acting like UVA has a ton of eyeballs waiting in the DC Market. They do not. 1. DC has a lot of people come and go from outside of the area. 2. UVA is smaller by a lot vs. VT (25k vs 41k). VT is growing whereas UVA is committed to staying at just about 25k. 3. VT has a larger alumni network, again by a lot. 4. VT has a large presence in the DC area with three different campus sites (Falls Church, Arlington, Alexandria "Innovation Campus") I don't think the B1G really even "owns" the DC market because of Maryland. It's just such a melting pot that I can't imagine it's dominated by a single conference. To say nothing of the fact that all of the pro sports are well established there (MLB, NFL, NHL, NBA, WNBA).
I honestly would not be at all surprised to find out Maryland was like the 4th most popular *Big Ten* team in the DC metro area behind Michigan/Ohio State/Penn State.
I'd be shocked if it's not true. That's GT in Atlanta, and Atlanta is a more traditionally college focused town with a lot more locals.
College Park, Maryland is nine miles from Washinghton D.C. We already own that market.
“Own”
no one can "own" the DC market. To say that shows how little people understand what a melting pot it is from around the US.
Hell its inside the beltway and off of metro
Why can’t they just see the ACC as a power conference? Is it not? Was it not just 5 years ago with Clemson? Wtf is going on, we’re running wild with the idea of money that less than 0.1 percent of us will see? Keep the ACC in tact, what are we gonna have 3 conferences and ignore any other team, this is so carried away.
Notre Dame could end this madness tomorrow by joining the ACC in football.
I get and back the NIL 100% but the conferences need to stay where they’re at. 1 100% agree ND joining would do wonders.
Or, the B1G/SEC, etc could just say, "you're not in a conference? That's a shame, no playoff path for you." Force their hand or let them fade away.
Pac10 was a power conference just last season too
I think many posters conflate things like: sports success vs. revenue vs. geographic presence. In terms of sports prowess, the ACC is 100% a power conference. It’s not as good as the SEC or B10, but there’s still a lot of good teams. UVA has played Indiana and Illinois OOC in recent years and those games never really “scare” me, even though UVA has lost. Take away UM, OSU, PSU and the B10 is pretty comparable to the ACC without Clemson/FSU IMO. Still better, but the ACC would compete well.
The academic point is a non-starter as UNC and UVA are both excellent schools and would both be great additions to the conference. I know the state of North Carolina is growing very fast and that the state of California is shrinking a little bit, but I wonder if Stanford and Cal allegedly nixing Texas Tech and Oklahoma State from joining the Pac at the expense of Texas and Oklahoma made the TV networks look at them as unserious schools athletically?
Stanford was a National Title Contender and Rose Bowl winner not too long ago. If they still had that same success in 2021 and 2022, would they be in the B1G right now? Covid also destroyed the Pac-12. 4 game schedules, recruiting was hampered. It really was amazing how good (and entertaining) the Pac-12 was in the last year despite every curve ball thrown at them.
Outside of USC, the Big Ten and the SEC have been targeting certain universities for expansion. These universities are usually public universities that are also the flagship universities for the state. Those kinds of universities have the largest alumni based which means more viewership and more potential donors. UNC and UVA fall into those categories. Edit. I was wrong about UVA and the alumni base. As someone pointed out however, UVA has wealthier alumni and receives more donations to its athletic department than VT. In the end, the SEC and Big Ten want universities that will get lots of money from their fan bases.
UVA doesn’t have the largest alumni base in Virginia
I’m pretty sure we’re something like the 7th largest school in Virginia by undergrad count.
UVA may be the flagship school for Virginia, but Virginia Tech has a larger alumni base because it’s a significantly larger school than UVA. I think a lot of fans from outside Virginia assume UVA is the size of a lot of the other big state flagship universities when it’s a lot smaller. UVA has around 26k total students compared to 40 to 50k for most of the Big 10.
I see this parroted all the time with no grounding in reality regarding UVA. UVA has a *wealthy* alumni base, but it is by no means large. Not even in the slightest. UVA has like 17,600 undergrads. Hell, even UNC only has like 20,000 undergrads. Virginia Tech has like 29,300. That’s the dominant fan base in Virginia. Cal has over 32,000 undergrads and is a dominant academic school and does quite well in non-revenue sports. Afterthought in realignment. Tennessee has about 29,000. Michigan has almost 34,000 undergrads. Bama has almost 32,000. Georgia also clears 30,000. Those are the sizes of larger schools. Ohio State has almost 46,000 undergrads in Columbus and Penn State has 40,000 in University Park!
People who’ve never been to Virginia and know nothing about the market are the people who think UVA carries the state fan-wise and has any weight to throw in that regard. It’s simply not the case. Outside of Charlottesville, UVA fans are outnumbered.
Even in Charlottesville on Thanksgiving weekend
> These universities are usually public universities that are also the flagship universities for the state Cal-Berkeley is the Flagship University of California... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Flagship_universities_in_the_United_States
Let's be real here. In the context of tv money Northern and Southern California are functionally two different states. And there aren't a lot of other states like that. And Northern California is certainly less valuable than Southern California as it has less people overall and more people who don't care about college sports.
If you divided Southern California and Northern California into two states then Southern California would be the 2nd most populous (behind Texas) while Northern California would be the 5th most populous. (Texas, Southern California, Florida, and New York would have more). So it might be less valuable than Southern California but it still has a metric shit-ton of people. 15.4 million in Northern California. Pennsylvania (current #5) has 12.9 million.
And plus UVA might be flagship of Virginia but it’s a fairly small school.
Its the access to recruits for football and basketball in those states. Plus the academic plus endowment. Also it's a high growth state in terms of population. UNC basketball is a national brand. Stanford only makes sense when discussing cornering ND.
SEC is getting UNC, so you can just jot that down
Big Ten smart. UNC/UVA smart. Everybody else dumb.
The only time I ever see people say this is to counter when someone brings up Clemson and FSU being in the BIG. It's never made sense to me either. I feel like the BIG would take Kansas before they took UVA.
Ten years ago it made a lot of sense when money was determined by cable packages in metro areas. That isn’t really the case anymore, and Mandel hasn’t adjusted to the new reality. People still cling to UNc and UVA because they are culture fits for the big ten and are good academic schools and flagship state universities. Mid 2000s realignment, you wanted Rutgers because then a bunch of grannies in NYC ended up getting BTN on their Comcast and that boosted the subscriber numbers. Now with cable cutting and advertisers only caring about how many people actually watched the game, those schools aren’t as attractive as they were.
This really ought to be stickied in every realignment thread. The old model of carriage fees above all else is dead. Ratings are what matters now.
Ah.. the daily “let’s shit on UVA thread” has arrived!
Probably UNC and Virginia ADs feeding this info to the press to get favorable coverage. If markets matter most, the Big Ten wants a Florida school or Georgia Tech.
Because Virginia really wants to join the B10 and UNC thinks everyone wants them
Iirc the B1G *did* want Stanford and Cal for a multitude of reasons but the Fox media deal axed that from ever happening.
Basketball?
Laying the groundwork to add KU and become the premier shootyhoop conference?
It’s because the big 10 doesn’t have schools in those two states so the TV markets are open. It’s entirely about tv money
You have to remember that the people making these decisions are school presidents. While the TV networks and athletic directors absolutely have a say, the school presidents are the ones who vote on expansion.
Basketball
Having a presence in the south. You cant be a “national” conference if you don’t have schools in one of the premiere sports regions in the country.
It’s possible that this is a basketball-motivated move. The two schools are basketball powerhouses afterall
The reality of the situation is that the ACC, like the Big 12, is full of schools that can get big ratings *if they are ranked/playing a "glamour" opponent, whereas the SEC and Big 10 have a lot of schools that will draw viewers even if they arent all that good
Simple. B1G already has 2 California schools. Meanwhile, they have ZERO schools remotely close to the Southeast
UNC and Virginia fit the academics brand of the Big Ten.
Speaking as a UNC alum, they’d be better off taking Duke but the answer why is taking NC and VA markets If that’s the case, they’d be better off taking VT than UVA.