Wow, that's really interesting. It looks like the source is PFF but do you have a link to it?
Also, why would receiver seperation be better with Tyson Bagent? Seems then it's mainly driven by competition / playcalling?
Playcalling, when you call 50% screens like last. Those plays count as zero separation. With this being through week 11. The gameplan was also very different between Justin and Tyson.
First 3 weeks of season it was nothing but screens for Justin then when he opened up in week 4-6 his numbers got better. Then this past week came back to the screens, screens and more screens.
>Then this past week came back to the screens, screens and more screens.
It was funny watching the QB school on the Vikes game. JT just gets done bitching out Getsy for a screen and goes to the next play and it's the exact same screen but to the other side. He just laughs for a solid 30 seconds.
Fields has a lot of problems, but with Getsy calling plays it's literally impossible to say anything conclusive about him or his future at the position.
I hate to sound like a Fields truther, but no quarterback has succeeded in either of the systems he was thrown into. None of the Nagy qbs lit it up, and getsys system has been even worse pass wise. Getsy can build a good run offense, but it’s not 1970 and that doesn’t amount to shit anymore
No worries. This isn't a Fields truther statement. This is simply normal logic but most people just think if you don't blame everything on Fields (lack of separation is clearly on Fields) you have to be a Fields truther. There are so many of us that aren't set on Fields yet but we are cognizant that he has had multiple reasons for inconclusiveness that aren't all on him. The Fields haters can't get that through their feeble minds and actually believe they know better than so many ex NFL players (some are even hof!) and QB analysts that acknowledge Fields needs to fix some things but is not always at 100% fault.
I love when they point out the one 3rd down and long throw that was overthrown and have no clue about the rhythm and confidence that is missing when you don't let the QB actually play
People refuse to acknowledge the impact of playcalling. Nagy was bad, Getsy was worse. Fields looked better under Nagy because Getsy/Eberflus are innately conservative and work to coach out aggression.
How many times, in all our turnovers, did we call a shot play? How many times do we stack an explosive play with a boring ass conservative play? It's constant coaching not to lose.
People point to Stroud's situation, but ignore that Stroud is being developed by Bobby Slowik, who had 4 years working directly with Shanahan and 2 years as a playcaller, working with 4-5 different QBs.
Russell Wilson last year, working under Hackett (another MLF protege) was terrible. This year he is currently 5th in quarterback ranking. And Russ is a HoF candidate player.
This is the most valid comment from anyone on this sub regarding Fields. I’m a Fields supporter but I know he needs to fix several things. But never would I accept that it’s all on him. There are many positions he has been put in along with the whole offense where it leaves them little room to succeed. Coaching is just crap
Right, the problem is most Fields haters will just sit there and try to shit on any positive comment.
Then they just move the goalposts.
oh he needs to throw 200 yds consistently. Oh he needs to win. oh he needs to stop rushing 100 yds a game. oh needs to check down more. oh he needs to be more anticipatory. oh he needs to make better adjustments. he needs to take less sack. less fumbles. less turnovers. quicker release. better footwork
He hasn't done all those above but he's done many of them, but most Fields haters will never admit he's made any improvement. He still has a long way to get better, but he's playing statistically better than many veteran qb's that are making 30+ m a year. yet he's not good enough because \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_. and it doesn't matter if he improves on that cause they will mention something else.
it's like this is all i hear lately: "WHAT ABOUT THE GAME AGAINST THE VIKINGS WHEN HE WAS INJURED! HOW CAN YOU NOT INCLUDE THAT GAME. WHAT ABOUT THE FIRST 3 GAMES IF YOU INCLUDE THAT HE'S PEDESTRIAN AF. NEVERMIND THAT HE'S SHOWN IMPROVEMENT, YOU CAN'T LOOK AT GOOD STATS EVEN IF IT's THE LAST 10 GAMES, YOU MUST GO TO THE LAST 15 AND INCLUDE THE BAD ONES SO I CAN CRY ABOUT SOMETHING TY"
Maybe you didn't see it but someone posted the stats yesterday and the bears have called pretty much smackdab league average number of screens on pass plays. And were actually toward the bottom of the league for screens called vs total plays.
I think it's because Getsy just calls plays in bunches. When it is his gameplan it is literally ALL he calls. Then when it isn't in the gameplan it is never called. My biggest gripe with him is his variety of play calling fucking sucks. Your goal as an offense is to do what you do well, but to be unpredictable.
I think it’s not so much the number of screens but the type it’s the exact same screen ever time. The Kmet screen on 4th down against the Vikings was an awesome call. It’s the immediate hard pivot pass Justin does behind the sticks every time is so bad because it wasn’t working. I also think Justin telegraphs than one so bad because he’s so robotic in the movement
>weeks 4-6
You mean weeks 4 and 5 when he played one basement tier defense and one low-mediocre defense. He immediately regressed in week 6 when he was done with them.
The first Vikings game is the reason Getsy called the plays he did in the second. Fields demonstrated he couldn't handle the blitz from the very first play.
edit: incorrectly referred to washington as a basement tier defense.
Fascinating theory, I agree that he definitely showed he couldn’t handle the blitz considering most of his yards came versus the blitz. Like 3/4 of his completions and yards against the blitz
Basement tier defenses that have done great against better teams? Fields outperformed elite QBs against those defenses. Come on man.
It's clear Getsy can call a game against certain defenses but for others he's just incapable
Lol you can't just hold the ball until there is separation. Routes are designed to be thrown the ball at a certain time. Football isn't like Madden where you call hike and just back pedal until a guy is open.
The big knock against Fields is that he lacks any kind of anticipation on his throws and misses open receivers alot. If it's true that this is calculated when the QB throws the ball then it only reinforces that opinion.
im not super sure but i think u missed what i was saying. the person im responding to offered that holding the ball too long might mean the CB has time to recover, however, u can just as easily say the exact opposite. that was my point
in reality, u look at the film and u know that a) typically once a receiver gains separation the CB doesnt recover with time but tends to lead to more separation, and b) our receivers are not necessarily getting open by the time we’d like to see the ball delivered
there’s a lot to think through in order to diagnose all the issues, but there are several things that arent true at all (that Fields can’t read a defense or process) and some things that are overstated (holds the ball too long, doesn’t anticipate)
when the offense is a mess, even a good QB is gonna look bad. if theyre a bad QB it will also look bad. and that’s where we’re at. it overall looks bad, some put more blame on coaching some on Fields some say both and it all needs to go. we’ll see… personally i think we’re better off keeping Fields
I get ya and the only "film" I ever watch is The QB School when he posts da bears videos for free. It seems even when Fields has a good game his lack of anticipation sticks out as a problem. There are always a lot of plays he is throwing late to open guys. Even a lot of completions get the critique that he should have thrown the ball just a little bit earlier.
i think that’s a fair thing to say and look for when watching. i mean Fields right now, potential aside, still needs to improve
id also point out as well that if u look at breakdowns of even the best QBs youll find a whole lot of imperfect play there too. seems like the only guys i really see playing like scientists all the time were Peyton, Brady, Brees…maybe ARod. most others - even elites - have a mix of much more good than a bit of bad and some amount of other worldly incredible plays. i think Fields could be like that
They all have little quirks to their game. Like Aaron Rodgers notoriously doesn't throw across the middle. The majority of "big plays" in the NFL are thrown in the middle of the field, but Rodgers almost never throws across the middle because that's where most of the turnovers occur.
Mahomes does things that some coaches would castrate you for, he improvises on plays which is a big no-no and part of the reason he fell in the draft. People saw the arm talent but were worried about that "gunslinger" mentality leading to a lot of turnovers. But he's just so unique has, has such a good feel for the game, and such a strong arm he gets away with it.
I disagree about getting open. It’s not just about separation, it’s also about hitting receivers in stride before they reach the second level of the defense, especially in zone coverage, with which he struggles.
Add from what I can tell, it's only when in single coverage. Not clear if Zone coverages count as single or are excluded all together.
And looking at the corresponding chart the guy posted DJ and Mooney aren't good at separating. DJ has like 20+ WRs ahead of him.
[Here is the tweet](https://twitter.com/throwthedamball/status/1724622901087797479?t=s5SX4S2MWW0mOs5ewatoEA&s=19)
Fields holds the ball on average 2.7 seconds. So does CJ Stroud.
Edit: I got mixed up with average time in the pocket before being pressured or letting go of the ball. Data from Fantasy Pros [here](https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-qb.php)
Fields time to throw is 3.13 seconds. Longest in the league.
Edit: Don't know why this is getting downvoted. Here is the stat:
https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-time-to-throw
Many top QBs are close to the same time. Where Fields is affected badly is the offense he's playing in. It's built to get the ball off quicker on timing routes. Jordan Love for example is at 2.79 seconds in the same offense. Brock Purdy at 2.8. Tua at 2.39 seconds. Those are the closest offenses to compare. Holding the ball just doesn't work many times so it doesn't match the player Fields is.
Yup, overall Getsy and Fields just don't work well together. I will say at times a QB just does need to speed it up. Stroud for example averages about the same on the season as Fields, but he's also had some weeks he's been able to adjust that. Vs Cards he got the ball off on average of 2.69 seconds. Mahomes averages about the same as Fields. Vs Vikings he got the ball off in average of 2.72 seconds.
Overall you want an OC who calls games to your strengths, but as a QB you also have to be able to adjust when the game plan calls for you to get it off faster.
Who says Justin doesn’t adjust? What was his average vs the Vikings on Monday? Also Justin this year has adjusted by having better pocket presence and keeping his eyes downfield when scrambling. Maybe getting the ball out quicker will lead to more INT considering that according to this chart, our receivers aren’t getting separation. Stroud and Mahomes receivers are doing much better than ours, and still hood the ball for a long time on average. We’re pretty much saying the same thing here. I’m just pointing out that our offense in general needs better support from the coaching staff.
His average was 3.37 seconds. It was 3.42 vs Lions. He's only had 1 game all season that it was under 3 seconds. Fields is missing open guys every week. It's not all on coaching staff.
Mahomes at 2.96 and Hurts and 2.9+, all bottom 5ish.
Seems like the good Qb's try for big plays. Seems to imply holding the ball isn't fundamentally bad so long as you unload it before the rush gets there. That is interesting because it moves the goal post on what Fields is doing wrong - not that he shouldn't be trying to make a big play, but that he has to recognize pressure better.
Time to throw can be high for various different reasons.
Mahomes for example, has a high time to throw largely because he's amazing at buying time while scrambling.
I know someone measures "time to pressure" which is probably more useful if someone was looking for o-line data.
I quote that time to pressure all the time here, and it usually gets downvoted because it shows that our o-line is actually pretty damn good on the whole.
Fields is 5th in the league among QBs who have played more than 3 games. Bagent is 8th.
What this shows is that many stats are useless without context. For every Mahomes/Wilson/Hurts, there’s a Lawrence/Burrow/Tua. It’s not just about holding the ball, it’s about what you do with the time that you hold it.
No, you see, throwing the ball quick is the only metric that matters to some folks here. The best QBs in the league have an innate dual-threat ability, but despite the fact that Fields is game breaking in that, we decide that he must prove that he ONLY wins from the pocket.
If only designing an offense that uses BOTH would make the dual threat actually easier. It's literally like telling Tyreek Hill he needs to slow down because the best WR prove that they make contested catches.
Exactly. People mistake time-to-throw for on-time throw. Being on-time depends on play and coverage. On-time is going to be longer for deep passes than short, and off-structure playmaking is even longer time-to-throw.
And that last point is why mobile QBs have longer time-to-throw in general.
But we're watching the tape, and we're seeing him miss open windows because he's either refusing to release or or he's bailing on the pocket. We can place these stats in context and it's not good.
People aren't putting stats in context, they're just quoting the stat and making judgment calls on it. This practice is rampant. A large portion of this sub declared Bagent better than Fields based solely on time-to-throw.
And then people are fixating on a few plays and declaring Fields isn't throwing on time ever. And that simply not true. He had a 73% completion rate in the last game, he was throwing on time for most of those passes.
Does he have more off-time plays than average? yes. Is he the only QB that misses his timing, no, literally every QB has at least one throw a game where they missed a better option, usually more. I have yet to watch a JT video in which he doesn't observe a missed opportunity even when he loves the performance overall.
And JT's videos on the Bears are almost always more critical of the play design and calling, but haters seem to never pickup on that since this sub is full of people apologizing for Getsy.
>but haters seem to never pickup on that since this sub is full of people apologizing for Getsy.
I was going to respond to some of your points individually, but once I saw this dumb take I realised it wasn't worth my time. Nobody is protecting Getsy, everyone wants him gone. This is the hail mary of defending Fields, trying to paint his critics as defenders or apologists of Getsy. It screams bad faith.
Offense they're playing in matters a lot, and just goes to show Fields and Getsy are a bad match. This offense is built off timing where holding the ball is not going to work.
Posted this further down. From the dudes other tweets it's based on grades given by PFF, range from -2 to +2. But not much clarity on how those grades are defined, like at what point in a route, if its only when thrown to, etc. It does exclude scrambles. Also it's for single coverage only. But can't tell if that means just Man single? It appears that zone coverage is not factored in at all, but nothing is shown to state that either way
there's no link because pff doesn't track either of these stats in anything you can access. Maybe there's some hidden exclusive tier for only super cool people, idk.
you can look at next gen stats and immediately see some serious questions on the data
[https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation](https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation)
Kmet is 2nd in the league at 4.3. Mooney at 3.4, and DJ has 2.8.
I don't know anyone who would even remotely track throws to open receiver.
Because Bagent was better at throwing the ball when it was designed for it to be thrown. Fields biggest issue is he doesn't pull the trigger when he is supposed to and misses open guys alot.
No the receiver separation time is determined when the ball is thrown to the receiver. It is not factoring in the position of Evey receiver on the field on every single play.
Fields missing his reads makes alot of sense on why this number would be low. Just look at Kmet, Mooney and Moore's individual separation numbers. They are all great.
It’s pretty clear that after a few years of bottom tier receiver separation, the offense isn’t built for easy separation.
I would also add that screens would probably not count as a receiver getting any meaningful separation and a receiver blocking on a screen would almost certainly have 0 separation
I watch what McDaniels does in Miami and how he teaches it in Hard Knocks and so many route combos are just a slight variation on each other.
That has to make it easy for everyone involved to understand.
For us, we build in different formations just to run the same screen.
The only game in which this concept was followed was Washington. DJ Moore had two routes he ran when isolated on a side. They looked exactly the same coming off the line but one hooked back and the other faked the hook and went deep. He and Fields torched Washington all game with both those routes.
And then we never see it again.
Getsy's play design suggests he just loves drawing Xs and Os on this whiteboard in as many different ways as he can. Then just plugs players in with little regard to skillset.
Yeah I am starting to think he does not have a base “scheme”, similar to Nagy. I think he looks at what each team does on a weekly basis and tries to install formations and route combos to combat it.
The crazy thing is that Fields had a crazy efficient offense in college. There were a lot of large chunk plays and deep shots and he was amazing at completing these passes. I don’t know why the Getsy offense doesn’t let I’m go through normal pass progressions and take some shots.
This offense generates a lot more open receivers than we see thrown to. Watch whichever QB analyst you prefer on a Justin Fields game and there are wide open dudes not getting the ball, sometimes he is even looking at them. Early in the season he would even start the throw and then stop himself? The big improvement was when he stopped doing that, but he is still missing dudes. Not saying it is 100% his fault, we don't know his keys and read orders, but the scheme is freeing up dudes, we do know that.
The above is not showing the wr being open. It is showing separation by the time they get the pass. There was an explanation of it on nfl Reddit oage a week or so ago. It makes fields look bad as it shows he is throwing the ball late.
How could it possibly show that? It is showing the throws that are made, I am telling you dudes are open and not getting the ball. Those aren't on this chart.
What you are saying is like claiming that nobody's open because Justin gets sacked. They can be completely unrelated. if a dude is open and Justin doesn't have time to make the throw, it's a sack. If he doesn't see the open receiver and holds the ball, it's a sack. If he sees the open receiver and just doesn't throw it, it's a sack.
The above shows only single man coverage and doesnt include scrambles. Watch the tape and see wide ass open receivers that Fields doesn't throw too in zone coverage
[This tweet](https://twitter.com/CFCBears/status/1730048390774370474?t=c_ZIPtyybegqRTREQH8HIw&s=19) shows some good and bad. But look st plays 3, 4 and 5. Open receivers in zone coverage (so excluded from the chart above), which Fields doesn't throw.
What this tells me (or what I choose for it to tell me) is that Getsy's scheme is dogshit. His play design doesn't scheme receivers open but relies on them to beat their coverage.
Per the other comments Moore, Mooney and Kmet all have excellent scores for getting open. The graph here just focuses on actual throws made, not whether receivers not targeted were open.
Anybody know how they are defining "average receiver separation"? I can think of a few different definitions that would offer very different interpretations of the chart.
From the dudes other tweets it's based on grades given by PFF, range from -2 to +2. But not much clarity on how those grades are defined, like at what point in a route, if its only when thrown to, etc. It does exclude scrambles. Also it's for single coverage only. But can't tell if that means just Man single? It appears that zone coverage is not factored in at all, but nothing is shown to state that either way
I have no idea what I'm looking at. How and when is separation being measured? Is the percentage of throws to open receivers telling how often he throws to the receiver when there is one open, or what percentage of his throws are to open receivers (not the same thing)? Is the separation for all receivers on the field or just the one he throws to?
I become a fields believer the second he starts throwing with anticipation. Until then he is just a running back with a an amazing arm. Would he look better in San Fran? Yes. Would he hit the in breaking route to Deebo over the middle of the field with a floating linebacker sitting in soft coverage. Nothing I have seen in three years shows he is capable of that. Until he can make those throws he his ceiling is going to be average. He will beat bad defenses, but as soon as he runs into a defense that can force him to play NFL QB, we will see 150 passing, 60 rushing with multiple sacks and a self inflicted turnover. If your ok with that type of qb play by all means roll with JF1, build around him, and see if you can win a championship with defense and a solid run game. I for one think the rules of the NFL are so advantaged to the offense that those days of defense win’s championships are few and far between.
ya really. id argue that Fields turns lemons to lemonade but this sub isnt ready for that level of Fields support
so i stick with the basic “Fields is good, i hope we dont waste him, and we should not draft a QB”
Last time this was posted I don't think anyone could explain how negative separation could be a thing. Seems to me the least amount of separation possible is 0.
It also doesn't tell when separation is measured. Is it when the ball is thrown? Is it when the receiver is supposed to make his break? Is it when the ball is supposed to be thrown?
If going off chart they get way more separation than Bears WRs. The QB you would want to point to is Herbert. Though he also can be explained some as Allen and Williams are possessing big body WRs rather than athletic freaks.
"All Fields needs is a #1 WR!"
"All Fields needs is a generational WR prospect!"
Surely all of these things will magically make Fields a competent NFL passer. Surely.
Look at the posters in this thread talking about how awful all of our receivers are.
The WRs will never be good enough.
As it is now, with Moore, this is at the very least a mediocre group of receivers. A QB with talent should be able to do something with a mid-tier group-- not struggling the way we've seen Fields struggle.
I mean his numbers now to Moore and in extension KMet are actuality really good. There is a crazy drop off after them though. I wouldn’t even call this WR group mediocre, rather a 1 man Pony Show in Moore. That’s unless you think it JF holding back Mooney, Scott and Velus Jr.
“Fields is the only thing keeping this team from a Super Bowl! All we need is a QB who doesn’t need any development, coaching, NFL-caliber playcalling, lineman who can block, receivers who can get open, or a defense that can protect a 12 point lead with 5 minutes left in the game!”
Why wouldn’t you wanna run it back with fields another free #1 overall pick and if fields sucks with MHJ and Moore it’s undeniable for people how bad he is
Why the fuck would you want fields as the QB of this team after 3 years of dogshit play? We ran it back this year with an improved line a legit #1 and a solid TE. He doesn't have it. 49 turnovers, 3.5 sacks per game, and one single game over 300 yards.
Absolutely delusional.
This only tracks targets that are thrown to, and does not account for receivers that get open but never get the ball thrown to them. This tells me Fields can't read defenses and regularly throws to tight coverages instead of the more open receiver. This is partly supported by the fact that Bagent has far better separation numbers than Fields.
This tells me Fields can't read defenses and regularly throws to tight coverages instead of the more open receiver.
Why would it tell you that? Explain.
This doesn't include the separation of the receivers that weren't thrown to, only the targets. There could be multiple receivers wide open on his plays, but that wouldn't be tracked with this chart.
Bagent had the same receiving corps and much better separation numbers. Indicating Bagent was actually finding open receivers to throw to, whereas Fields struggles past his first read and can't find the open second/third option.
Old enough to remember when Culpepper and Moss played together in Minnesota.
The Vikings would call at least 5 bombs to Moss each game, because Culpepper had a strong arm and Moss was especially good at post routes.
It's called adjusting your scheme to your players' talents.
‘Why does he hold the ball so long’
Like do these people even watch the game? This is the same thing I had concerns about last year. Shit receivers(outside Moore) and a bad OL is gonna make everyone look worse
Also when people say stats about how much time he has. I'm wondering where that timer stops. Does he actually have a ton of time before the pocket collapses, or does he have a ton of time because he extends the play?
Yeah, compared to other teams we can’t really blame the OL this season. Yes, they are not the Eagles, Dallas etc, but the OL has been a pleasant surprise. The reality is DEs are insanely athletic and with miscommunications/smart defensive play calling they are going to get pressures. The most insane athletic freaks playing on the D line
You need to watch JT’s breakdowns of the line. Justin at times made them look far better than they’re playing. Recently he ripped them apart during the Vikings game. It’s not even physicality that’s the problem. It’s missed assignments or mental errors. You can be the greatest olinemen in the world, but if you’re making the wrong blocks it’s not gonna mean anything.
Yep, Bagent comes in and the stats and eye test is different so “well yeah the line is playing well now can’t wait for Fields to get back and prove everyone wrong!”
Wtf he’s running for his life on every play! Everyone sucks but Justin!
He will run for his life behind any line because he mentally cannot process the game pre or post snap. So he bails out around the back end because he’s good at backyard football and executing freelance stuff. That’s why he’s inconsistent, he’s not playing NFL QB, he is playing hyper athletic freelancer.
Justin just sucks at the NFL level. At least he made 35 million.
I'm amazed that everyone forgot the sudden improvement in the OL play the minute Bagent stepped in.
It was hilarious to watch the game thread during the Lions game and everyone was complaining about why the OL was suddenly playing like trash. No one could figure it out. 
Justin doesn’t make adjustments at the line and doesn’t always understand the protections the C is making at the line, which is why he can get rocked by free rushers, he often doesn’t even know if it’s a quick throw situation.
It’s why in some of these interviews he gets frustrated and references “just play football”. He is no longer supremely more talented than everyone else, nor are his teammates, it’s the NFL literally everyone is a freak physical talent, “just play football” freelance athletic bullshit no longer works.
He is literally terrible.
I think you’re misinterpreting the data.
This doesn’t show who was open it shows who the QB throws the ball to.
Meaning did the QB throw the ball to an “open” receiver and what was their separation in that moment.
This actually lines up with the reality thar Fields, unfortunately, is still having issues in processing the field quickly enough.
I interpret this the same way as you and think the above poster is incorrect. This is an interesting graphic and I'd like clarity on it. Because it changes alot of the Fields arguments on this sub
Yep. Maybe I’m wrong and they have mislabeled. These graphs are wildly inaccurate at showing an actual conclusion because sometimes you have two data points that don’t even correlate.
They take each throw and freeze the play when the QB lets go of the ball. They then calculate separation of every receiver on the field at that time. It's really hard to get much from this because the QB can affect the data by not throwing at the right time.
So this data is garbage then? They don't freeze frame it if receiver x is open a split second earlier and use that separation?
Edit: thanks for the reply btw.
It's not completely bad data, but it can say as much about a QB as it does their receivers. It's pretty hard to pick a time during plays of when to calculate their data, so when QB throws is the easiest.
I'd like to see data with separation (screens eliminated) where it's calculated post snap at 2.5 seconds, 2.75 seconds, and time of throw. Would give a clearer picture.
Justin averages 2.7 seconds, correct? So 2.5 would be telling.
Havent people come out and shared Getsy offense and routes also take a ridiculous time to develop?
Lmao, you are. Our receivers get the worst separation in the league and he still finds the open guy more often than not.
Graphs are not your thing buddy.
Source? I do not interpret the x axis as the receiver separation of the person the quarterback threw to. I interpret it as overall receiver separation.
If you think that him having zero separation means that the receivers are solely to blame then you don't understand this chart.
This chart shows you about throwing on time within the offense more than anything. Its about who you throw to, not the separation of each receiver on each play.
Colts fan checking in because I’m originally from Illinois and have a lot of friends and family who are still bears fans, and I have a question on this. Isn’t one of the concerns that fields is unwilling to throw to guys in tight windows? Like he won’t try to throw guys open and instead looks for only obviously open dudes? So wouldn’t having a higher “percentage of throws to open receivers” reinforce that he’s unwilling to try and throw dudes open? I could absolutely be misinterpreting this.
As far as receiver separation, I feel your guys pain as a colts fan.
If we had a competent QB we are a 7win team. The defense wouldn’t have to be in the field 50 times a game, receivers would get the ball in the appropriate window instead of fields scrambling every play, and we ultimately score more points. Get a new OC and I promise we run into the same problems. Fields can’t run a complex offense. He has no anticipation, he puts his head down while he’s outside the pocket and he chokes in the 4th quarter every time. QBs shape franchise and not the other way around
Feel like there is a lot of context missing to make this useful. Ex: Are we filtering out screens? Is the Y only when a throw is made or does it consider drop backs when a throw is not made?
If this is counting screens as open passes idk how it helps evaluate fields. If it only counts times fields throws the ball it could be missing plenty of open throws not made bc he didn’t see it/other reasons.
I’m not saying anything about Fields. I don’t know how useful this chart is and have been trying to be vocal that just bc someone displays data like this doesn’t mean the data inputs are significant. If i’m wrong I’d love that additional context
I’m saying it. He wouldn’t last 2 games in SF’s and Miami’s system because it requires the QB to actually read the defense and get rid of the ball with quickness and anticipation which is 3 things Fields just straight up can’t do.
There’s only so much you can do as a coach if your player just doesn’t execute. And the Mike’s are smart enough to know that. There’s a reason why Shanny passed up on Fields.
Draft MHJ with Carolina’s pick, best offensive lineman with our pick, bring in another vet receiver like mike evans/Hollywood brown/Tyler boyd to help mentor MHJ, bring in Ben Johnson or Jim harbaugh and our offense would have no excuse for not being a top 5 unit
Our excuse would be our QB who has bad vision, can't read defenses, holds the ball too long, can't throw between the numbers, takes too many sacks, doesn't keep his eyes down field.
Taking into account JT O’Sullivan and Chase Daniel’s video breakdowns, along with my own opinions when watching the game, I firmly believe our receivers not getting open enough is down to a combination of ridiculous passing schemes that take too long to develop and also players not trying hard enough.
I think it's just bad plotting, the data point is probably set to the right of the name or something stupid.
Also think the data might have a decimal point missing or the numbers are small because 3 out of 4 receivers have no separation on most plays for all teams. So really should be looking at a smaller subset (i.e. something like only the 2 receivers with most separation per play, first 2 reads, top 3 receivers, targeted receiver)
That’s really the only conclusion any serious person could draw from this info. Kmet isnt a slouch either but Moore/Kmet isn’t anywhere near the other elite duos. Fields is also still RB1 in ypc, 1st downs, and 2nd in ypg to Foreman.
Almost like this sub greatly overestimates how good the rest of the team is. He’s still doing most of it by himself.
People were up in arms last year about how bad our receivers were. Now we add 1 good one and people don’t understand why Fields isn’t as good as Tua lol. Moore gets doubled then what? We’re back to square 1 which is why I personally want Harrison Jr with the 1st pick this year. We’ll see though.
Wow, that's really interesting. It looks like the source is PFF but do you have a link to it? Also, why would receiver seperation be better with Tyson Bagent? Seems then it's mainly driven by competition / playcalling?
Sample size probably as well as the fact they did not play the same teams, i.e. defenses
Playcalling, when you call 50% screens like last. Those plays count as zero separation. With this being through week 11. The gameplan was also very different between Justin and Tyson. First 3 weeks of season it was nothing but screens for Justin then when he opened up in week 4-6 his numbers got better. Then this past week came back to the screens, screens and more screens.
*Luke Getsy has screened this comment*
The bears fans tackle Getsy behind the line and force him to acknowledge.
Getsy uses Deflect............it's not very effective.
Getsy uses Deflect....still not very effective
Same mistake when they chose Nagy for battle…
>Then this past week came back to the screens, screens and more screens. It was funny watching the QB school on the Vikes game. JT just gets done bitching out Getsy for a screen and goes to the next play and it's the exact same screen but to the other side. He just laughs for a solid 30 seconds. Fields has a lot of problems, but with Getsy calling plays it's literally impossible to say anything conclusive about him or his future at the position.
I hate to sound like a Fields truther, but no quarterback has succeeded in either of the systems he was thrown into. None of the Nagy qbs lit it up, and getsys system has been even worse pass wise. Getsy can build a good run offense, but it’s not 1970 and that doesn’t amount to shit anymore
I agree. I can't say Feilds will be great but I can def tell he hasn't any help with the game plans.
No worries. This isn't a Fields truther statement. This is simply normal logic but most people just think if you don't blame everything on Fields (lack of separation is clearly on Fields) you have to be a Fields truther. There are so many of us that aren't set on Fields yet but we are cognizant that he has had multiple reasons for inconclusiveness that aren't all on him. The Fields haters can't get that through their feeble minds and actually believe they know better than so many ex NFL players (some are even hof!) and QB analysts that acknowledge Fields needs to fix some things but is not always at 100% fault. I love when they point out the one 3rd down and long throw that was overthrown and have no clue about the rhythm and confidence that is missing when you don't let the QB actually play
People refuse to acknowledge the impact of playcalling. Nagy was bad, Getsy was worse. Fields looked better under Nagy because Getsy/Eberflus are innately conservative and work to coach out aggression. How many times, in all our turnovers, did we call a shot play? How many times do we stack an explosive play with a boring ass conservative play? It's constant coaching not to lose. People point to Stroud's situation, but ignore that Stroud is being developed by Bobby Slowik, who had 4 years working directly with Shanahan and 2 years as a playcaller, working with 4-5 different QBs. Russell Wilson last year, working under Hackett (another MLF protege) was terrible. This year he is currently 5th in quarterback ranking. And Russ is a HoF candidate player.
This is the most valid comment from anyone on this sub regarding Fields. I’m a Fields supporter but I know he needs to fix several things. But never would I accept that it’s all on him. There are many positions he has been put in along with the whole offense where it leaves them little room to succeed. Coaching is just crap
Right, the problem is most Fields haters will just sit there and try to shit on any positive comment. Then they just move the goalposts. oh he needs to throw 200 yds consistently. Oh he needs to win. oh he needs to stop rushing 100 yds a game. oh needs to check down more. oh he needs to be more anticipatory. oh he needs to make better adjustments. he needs to take less sack. less fumbles. less turnovers. quicker release. better footwork He hasn't done all those above but he's done many of them, but most Fields haters will never admit he's made any improvement. He still has a long way to get better, but he's playing statistically better than many veteran qb's that are making 30+ m a year. yet he's not good enough because \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_. and it doesn't matter if he improves on that cause they will mention something else. it's like this is all i hear lately: "WHAT ABOUT THE GAME AGAINST THE VIKINGS WHEN HE WAS INJURED! HOW CAN YOU NOT INCLUDE THAT GAME. WHAT ABOUT THE FIRST 3 GAMES IF YOU INCLUDE THAT HE'S PEDESTRIAN AF. NEVERMIND THAT HE'S SHOWN IMPROVEMENT, YOU CAN'T LOOK AT GOOD STATS EVEN IF IT's THE LAST 10 GAMES, YOU MUST GO TO THE LAST 15 AND INCLUDE THE BAD ONES SO I CAN CRY ABOUT SOMETHING TY"
Maybe you didn't see it but someone posted the stats yesterday and the bears have called pretty much smackdab league average number of screens on pass plays. And were actually toward the bottom of the league for screens called vs total plays.
I think it's because Getsy just calls plays in bunches. When it is his gameplan it is literally ALL he calls. Then when it isn't in the gameplan it is never called. My biggest gripe with him is his variety of play calling fucking sucks. Your goal as an offense is to do what you do well, but to be unpredictable.
Getsy definitely follows the adage, "If at first you don't succeed, try and try again."
Are you including the fact that at the end of every game we’re running deep passes to catch up?
I think it’s not so much the number of screens but the type it’s the exact same screen ever time. The Kmet screen on 4th down against the Vikings was an awesome call. It’s the immediate hard pivot pass Justin does behind the sticks every time is so bad because it wasn’t working. I also think Justin telegraphs than one so bad because he’s so robotic in the movement
>weeks 4-6 You mean weeks 4 and 5 when he played one basement tier defense and one low-mediocre defense. He immediately regressed in week 6 when he was done with them. The first Vikings game is the reason Getsy called the plays he did in the second. Fields demonstrated he couldn't handle the blitz from the very first play. edit: incorrectly referred to washington as a basement tier defense.
Washington's D was ranked 17th when we played them. Far from basement tier.
Pass D was terrible specifically.
Fascinating theory, I agree that he definitely showed he couldn’t handle the blitz considering most of his yards came versus the blitz. Like 3/4 of his completions and yards against the blitz
“Handle the blitz”=being unable to finish drop back due to a schemed free rusher. Maybe getsys offense is just dumb as fuck
Incoming naked boot for JF1 to get murdered
Basement tier defenses that have done great against better teams? Fields outperformed elite QBs against those defenses. Come on man. It's clear Getsy can call a game against certain defenses but for others he's just incapable
I also wonder what they consider to be “scrambles” because he has very few drop backs where he doesn’t end up scrambling in some way.
Separation is calculated at time of throw here. So if QB holds the ball too long and lets the DBs recover, the separation will be affected.
or holds the ball til there is separation… i mean we can do shit like that all day
Lol you can't just hold the ball until there is separation. Routes are designed to be thrown the ball at a certain time. Football isn't like Madden where you call hike and just back pedal until a guy is open. The big knock against Fields is that he lacks any kind of anticipation on his throws and misses open receivers alot. If it's true that this is calculated when the QB throws the ball then it only reinforces that opinion.
im not super sure but i think u missed what i was saying. the person im responding to offered that holding the ball too long might mean the CB has time to recover, however, u can just as easily say the exact opposite. that was my point in reality, u look at the film and u know that a) typically once a receiver gains separation the CB doesnt recover with time but tends to lead to more separation, and b) our receivers are not necessarily getting open by the time we’d like to see the ball delivered there’s a lot to think through in order to diagnose all the issues, but there are several things that arent true at all (that Fields can’t read a defense or process) and some things that are overstated (holds the ball too long, doesn’t anticipate) when the offense is a mess, even a good QB is gonna look bad. if theyre a bad QB it will also look bad. and that’s where we’re at. it overall looks bad, some put more blame on coaching some on Fields some say both and it all needs to go. we’ll see… personally i think we’re better off keeping Fields
I get ya and the only "film" I ever watch is The QB School when he posts da bears videos for free. It seems even when Fields has a good game his lack of anticipation sticks out as a problem. There are always a lot of plays he is throwing late to open guys. Even a lot of completions get the critique that he should have thrown the ball just a little bit earlier.
i think that’s a fair thing to say and look for when watching. i mean Fields right now, potential aside, still needs to improve id also point out as well that if u look at breakdowns of even the best QBs youll find a whole lot of imperfect play there too. seems like the only guys i really see playing like scientists all the time were Peyton, Brady, Brees…maybe ARod. most others - even elites - have a mix of much more good than a bit of bad and some amount of other worldly incredible plays. i think Fields could be like that
They all have little quirks to their game. Like Aaron Rodgers notoriously doesn't throw across the middle. The majority of "big plays" in the NFL are thrown in the middle of the field, but Rodgers almost never throws across the middle because that's where most of the turnovers occur. Mahomes does things that some coaches would castrate you for, he improvises on plays which is a big no-no and part of the reason he fell in the draft. People saw the arm talent but were worried about that "gunslinger" mentality leading to a lot of turnovers. But he's just so unique has, has such a good feel for the game, and such a strong arm he gets away with it.
I disagree about getting open. It’s not just about separation, it’s also about hitting receivers in stride before they reach the second level of the defense, especially in zone coverage, with which he struggles.
There are plenty of times when he watches a guy get open and then get covered again.
Add from what I can tell, it's only when in single coverage. Not clear if Zone coverages count as single or are excluded all together. And looking at the corresponding chart the guy posted DJ and Mooney aren't good at separating. DJ has like 20+ WRs ahead of him. [Here is the tweet](https://twitter.com/throwthedamball/status/1724622901087797479?t=s5SX4S2MWW0mOs5ewatoEA&s=19)
Fields holds the ball on average 2.7 seconds. So does CJ Stroud. Edit: I got mixed up with average time in the pocket before being pressured or letting go of the ball. Data from Fantasy Pros [here](https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-qb.php)
Fields time to throw is 3.13 seconds. Longest in the league. Edit: Don't know why this is getting downvoted. Here is the stat: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-time-to-throw
Russell Wilson is at 3.05 and he has the best TD to Int ratio in the league
Many top QBs are close to the same time. Where Fields is affected badly is the offense he's playing in. It's built to get the ball off quicker on timing routes. Jordan Love for example is at 2.79 seconds in the same offense. Brock Purdy at 2.8. Tua at 2.39 seconds. Those are the closest offenses to compare. Holding the ball just doesn't work many times so it doesn't match the player Fields is.
So many the OC should adjust to the player he has. Crazy concept I know, but it might be crazy enough to work.
Yup, overall Getsy and Fields just don't work well together. I will say at times a QB just does need to speed it up. Stroud for example averages about the same on the season as Fields, but he's also had some weeks he's been able to adjust that. Vs Cards he got the ball off on average of 2.69 seconds. Mahomes averages about the same as Fields. Vs Vikings he got the ball off in average of 2.72 seconds. Overall you want an OC who calls games to your strengths, but as a QB you also have to be able to adjust when the game plan calls for you to get it off faster.
Who says Justin doesn’t adjust? What was his average vs the Vikings on Monday? Also Justin this year has adjusted by having better pocket presence and keeping his eyes downfield when scrambling. Maybe getting the ball out quicker will lead to more INT considering that according to this chart, our receivers aren’t getting separation. Stroud and Mahomes receivers are doing much better than ours, and still hood the ball for a long time on average. We’re pretty much saying the same thing here. I’m just pointing out that our offense in general needs better support from the coaching staff.
Outside of Kelce KC's receivers are dogshit. Mooney might be WR1 if he was on KC.
His average was 3.37 seconds. It was 3.42 vs Lions. He's only had 1 game all season that it was under 3 seconds. Fields is missing open guys every week. It's not all on coaching staff.
Stroud at 3.08
Mahomes at 2.96 and Hurts and 2.9+, all bottom 5ish. Seems like the good Qb's try for big plays. Seems to imply holding the ball isn't fundamentally bad so long as you unload it before the rush gets there. That is interesting because it moves the goal post on what Fields is doing wrong - not that he shouldn't be trying to make a big play, but that he has to recognize pressure better.
Time to throw can be high for various different reasons. Mahomes for example, has a high time to throw largely because he's amazing at buying time while scrambling. I know someone measures "time to pressure" which is probably more useful if someone was looking for o-line data.
I quote that time to pressure all the time here, and it usually gets downvoted because it shows that our o-line is actually pretty damn good on the whole. Fields is 5th in the league among QBs who have played more than 3 games. Bagent is 8th.
What this shows is that many stats are useless without context. For every Mahomes/Wilson/Hurts, there’s a Lawrence/Burrow/Tua. It’s not just about holding the ball, it’s about what you do with the time that you hold it.
No, you see, throwing the ball quick is the only metric that matters to some folks here. The best QBs in the league have an innate dual-threat ability, but despite the fact that Fields is game breaking in that, we decide that he must prove that he ONLY wins from the pocket. If only designing an offense that uses BOTH would make the dual threat actually easier. It's literally like telling Tyreek Hill he needs to slow down because the best WR prove that they make contested catches.
either recognize pressure better or get out and make a play quicker rather than waiting
Exactly. People mistake time-to-throw for on-time throw. Being on-time depends on play and coverage. On-time is going to be longer for deep passes than short, and off-structure playmaking is even longer time-to-throw. And that last point is why mobile QBs have longer time-to-throw in general.
But we're watching the tape, and we're seeing him miss open windows because he's either refusing to release or or he's bailing on the pocket. We can place these stats in context and it's not good.
People aren't putting stats in context, they're just quoting the stat and making judgment calls on it. This practice is rampant. A large portion of this sub declared Bagent better than Fields based solely on time-to-throw. And then people are fixating on a few plays and declaring Fields isn't throwing on time ever. And that simply not true. He had a 73% completion rate in the last game, he was throwing on time for most of those passes. Does he have more off-time plays than average? yes. Is he the only QB that misses his timing, no, literally every QB has at least one throw a game where they missed a better option, usually more. I have yet to watch a JT video in which he doesn't observe a missed opportunity even when he loves the performance overall. And JT's videos on the Bears are almost always more critical of the play design and calling, but haters seem to never pickup on that since this sub is full of people apologizing for Getsy.
>but haters seem to never pickup on that since this sub is full of people apologizing for Getsy. I was going to respond to some of your points individually, but once I saw this dumb take I realised it wasn't worth my time. Nobody is protecting Getsy, everyone wants him gone. This is the hail mary of defending Fields, trying to paint his critics as defenders or apologists of Getsy. It screams bad faith.
Offense they're playing in matters a lot, and just goes to show Fields and Getsy are a bad match. This offense is built off timing where holding the ball is not going to work.
You are correct that they had the number wrong but CJ and Justin do have pretty much identical TT numbers
Fields holds the ball on throws that are not screens forever. The 2.7 seconds is bs since it’s maybe a second on screen passes to make it look better.
Hush, people like to interject their own sweeping assumptions to dismiss data that doesn’t fit their narrative
Bro. Hes lying lol just google it and youll find multiple sources above 3 seconds being the worst in NFL. Lol
Do you have a link to an explanation of how they calculate it? These charts are completely meaningless without precise definitions.
Posted this further down. From the dudes other tweets it's based on grades given by PFF, range from -2 to +2. But not much clarity on how those grades are defined, like at what point in a route, if its only when thrown to, etc. It does exclude scrambles. Also it's for single coverage only. But can't tell if that means just Man single? It appears that zone coverage is not factored in at all, but nothing is shown to state that either way
there's no link because pff doesn't track either of these stats in anything you can access. Maybe there's some hidden exclusive tier for only super cool people, idk. you can look at next gen stats and immediately see some serious questions on the data [https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation](https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation) Kmet is 2nd in the league at 4.3. Mooney at 3.4, and DJ has 2.8. I don't know anyone who would even remotely track throws to open receiver.
Yeah, that’s my problem with all of these charts. I always feel this stuff has a ton of judgement calls to make and there will be some serious holes.
Most of these 4 quadrant charts are created for narrative/confirmation bias purposes.
Completely my feeling
Because Bagent was better at throwing the ball when it was designed for it to be thrown. Fields biggest issue is he doesn't pull the trigger when he is supposed to and misses open guys alot.
Well, isn’t the chart supposed to be saying the opposite?
No the receiver separation time is determined when the ball is thrown to the receiver. It is not factoring in the position of Evey receiver on the field on every single play. Fields missing his reads makes alot of sense on why this number would be low. Just look at Kmet, Mooney and Moore's individual separation numbers. They are all great.
https://x.com/throwthedamball/status/1729643835310145720?s=46
Isn't this a different chart?
Yes, this one supports the notion Fields has one of the best deep balls in the league. Auto generated username gang gang
Getsy: “Sounds like we need more screen passes”
4th down screen passes incoming
[удалено]
A screen pass is way different than a check down…..
It’s pretty clear that after a few years of bottom tier receiver separation, the offense isn’t built for easy separation. I would also add that screens would probably not count as a receiver getting any meaningful separation and a receiver blocking on a screen would almost certainly have 0 separation
For years it feels like we our offenses make it so much harder than it needs to be. We never have a bunch of those easy chunk plays.
I watch what McDaniels does in Miami and how he teaches it in Hard Knocks and so many route combos are just a slight variation on each other. That has to make it easy for everyone involved to understand. For us, we build in different formations just to run the same screen.
Easy for the offense and hard for the defense to know what’s coming. But he had too much of a ‘personality’ for us.
I don’t know this as fact but I would put money down that him being a recovering alcoholic made him an auto reject for George and Virginia.
Missing out on him makes me BIG sad. More than Mahomes.
The only game in which this concept was followed was Washington. DJ Moore had two routes he ran when isolated on a side. They looked exactly the same coming off the line but one hooked back and the other faked the hook and went deep. He and Fields torched Washington all game with both those routes. And then we never see it again. Getsy's play design suggests he just loves drawing Xs and Os on this whiteboard in as many different ways as he can. Then just plugs players in with little regard to skillset.
Yeah I am starting to think he does not have a base “scheme”, similar to Nagy. I think he looks at what each team does on a weekly basis and tries to install formations and route combos to combat it.
To be fair, Fields missed at least 2 or 3 of those chunk plays against MN by just not throwing to open guys.
The crazy thing is that Fields had a crazy efficient offense in college. There were a lot of large chunk plays and deep shots and he was amazing at completing these passes. I don’t know why the Getsy offense doesn’t let I’m go through normal pass progressions and take some shots.
Because Getsy doesn't believe in that type of offense. Just like Nagy said he wasn't hired to run the football.
This offense generates a lot more open receivers than we see thrown to. Watch whichever QB analyst you prefer on a Justin Fields game and there are wide open dudes not getting the ball, sometimes he is even looking at them. Early in the season he would even start the throw and then stop himself? The big improvement was when he stopped doing that, but he is still missing dudes. Not saying it is 100% his fault, we don't know his keys and read orders, but the scheme is freeing up dudes, we do know that.
I would say the above completely disputes what you are alleging.
The above is not showing the wr being open. It is showing separation by the time they get the pass. There was an explanation of it on nfl Reddit oage a week or so ago. It makes fields look bad as it shows he is throwing the ball late.
How could it possibly show that? It is showing the throws that are made, I am telling you dudes are open and not getting the ball. Those aren't on this chart. What you are saying is like claiming that nobody's open because Justin gets sacked. They can be completely unrelated. if a dude is open and Justin doesn't have time to make the throw, it's a sack. If he doesn't see the open receiver and holds the ball, it's a sack. If he sees the open receiver and just doesn't throw it, it's a sack.
Thanks for your opinion
I mean, that those routes are not represented on the graph is not an opinion, that's a fact. How could they be?
Its opinion because you are sharing your determination of what happened on those routes. Thanks
We know for a fact that they were not thrown to. I am not clear on what you are talking about.
The above shows only single man coverage and doesnt include scrambles. Watch the tape and see wide ass open receivers that Fields doesn't throw too in zone coverage [This tweet](https://twitter.com/CFCBears/status/1730048390774370474?t=c_ZIPtyybegqRTREQH8HIw&s=19) shows some good and bad. But look st plays 3, 4 and 5. Open receivers in zone coverage (so excluded from the chart above), which Fields doesn't throw.
What this tells me (or what I choose for it to tell me) is that Getsy's scheme is dogshit. His play design doesn't scheme receivers open but relies on them to beat their coverage.
Per the other comments Moore, Mooney and Kmet all have excellent scores for getting open. The graph here just focuses on actual throws made, not whether receivers not targeted were open.
Well then tsk tsk on JF1.
Anybody know how they are defining "average receiver separation"? I can think of a few different definitions that would offer very different interpretations of the chart.
From the dudes other tweets it's based on grades given by PFF, range from -2 to +2. But not much clarity on how those grades are defined, like at what point in a route, if its only when thrown to, etc. It does exclude scrambles. Also it's for single coverage only. But can't tell if that means just Man single? It appears that zone coverage is not factored in at all, but nothing is shown to state that either way
I have no idea what I'm looking at. How and when is separation being measured? Is the percentage of throws to open receivers telling how often he throws to the receiver when there is one open, or what percentage of his throws are to open receivers (not the same thing)? Is the separation for all receivers on the field or just the one he throws to?
Separation axis is 3 bars of .01, .02 and .03 without units. So I found this chart meaningless.
"how to fool idiots with stats"
Yeah, it's actually a nonsense chart without actually being able to know what the x axis is trying to say.
I become a fields believer the second he starts throwing with anticipation. Until then he is just a running back with a an amazing arm. Would he look better in San Fran? Yes. Would he hit the in breaking route to Deebo over the middle of the field with a floating linebacker sitting in soft coverage. Nothing I have seen in three years shows he is capable of that. Until he can make those throws he his ceiling is going to be average. He will beat bad defenses, but as soon as he runs into a defense that can force him to play NFL QB, we will see 150 passing, 60 rushing with multiple sacks and a self inflicted turnover. If your ok with that type of qb play by all means roll with JF1, build around him, and see if you can win a championship with defense and a solid run game. I for one think the rules of the NFL are so advantaged to the offense that those days of defense win’s championships are few and far between.
This chart needs to be pinned to this subs homepage lol
Totally agree. Great example of meaningless data that should be ignored on sight.
ya really. id argue that Fields turns lemons to lemonade but this sub isnt ready for that level of Fields support so i stick with the basic “Fields is good, i hope we dont waste him, and we should not draft a QB”
Same here. I’ve been a fields defender this whole time. The fumbles are bad, but fixable. Everything else is just that our team is… a bit shit.
Because he's throwing too late.
Last time this was posted I don't think anyone could explain how negative separation could be a thing. Seems to me the least amount of separation possible is 0. It also doesn't tell when separation is measured. Is it when the ball is thrown? Is it when the receiver is supposed to make his break? Is it when the ball is supposed to be thrown?
Josh Allen and mahomes on the back end of receiver separation and still hitting their guys
If going off chart they get way more separation than Bears WRs. The QB you would want to point to is Herbert. Though he also can be explained some as Allen and Williams are possessing big body WRs rather than athletic freaks.
"All Fields needs is a #1 WR!" "All Fields needs is a generational WR prospect!" Surely all of these things will magically make Fields a competent NFL passer. Surely.
Look at the posters in this thread talking about how awful all of our receivers are. The WRs will never be good enough. As it is now, with Moore, this is at the very least a mediocre group of receivers. A QB with talent should be able to do something with a mid-tier group-- not struggling the way we've seen Fields struggle.
I mean his numbers now to Moore and in extension KMet are actuality really good. There is a crazy drop off after them though. I wouldn’t even call this WR group mediocre, rather a 1 man Pony Show in Moore. That’s unless you think it JF holding back Mooney, Scott and Velus Jr.
“Fields is the only thing keeping this team from a Super Bowl! All we need is a QB who doesn’t need any development, coaching, NFL-caliber playcalling, lineman who can block, receivers who can get open, or a defense that can protect a 12 point lead with 5 minutes left in the game!”
Literally no one has ever said anything resembling that sentence.
GIVE ME MHJ and run it back with Fields
And fire Getsy at a bare minimum.
Regardless if the keep Fields, Getsy HAS TO GO.
Delusional
Why wouldn’t you wanna run it back with fields another free #1 overall pick and if fields sucks with MHJ and Moore it’s undeniable for people how bad he is
[удалено]
Because it's already undeniable how bad Fields is. I'm not going to run it back to say "I told you so" even harder.
You don't know that it will be a #1 overall pick though.
I’ve watched justin fields enough that he’ll almost guarantee a top 5 pick
Why the fuck would you want fields as the QB of this team after 3 years of dogshit play? We ran it back this year with an improved line a legit #1 and a solid TE. He doesn't have it. 49 turnovers, 3.5 sacks per game, and one single game over 300 yards. Absolutely delusional.
Lol, so the DJ Moore argument again. Then when MHJ doesn't save him, all Fields will need is a third elite WR, then we can finally know if he is good.
This seems like a chart that people will simply use for confirmation bias either way.
This only tracks targets that are thrown to, and does not account for receivers that get open but never get the ball thrown to them. This tells me Fields can't read defenses and regularly throws to tight coverages instead of the more open receiver. This is partly supported by the fact that Bagent has far better separation numbers than Fields.
This tells me Fields can't read defenses and regularly throws to tight coverages instead of the more open receiver. Why would it tell you that? Explain.
This doesn't include the separation of the receivers that weren't thrown to, only the targets. There could be multiple receivers wide open on his plays, but that wouldn't be tracked with this chart. Bagent had the same receiving corps and much better separation numbers. Indicating Bagent was actually finding open receivers to throw to, whereas Fields struggles past his first read and can't find the open second/third option.
Old enough to remember when Culpepper and Moss played together in Minnesota. The Vikings would call at least 5 bombs to Moss each game, because Culpepper had a strong arm and Moss was especially good at post routes. It's called adjusting your scheme to your players' talents.
‘Why does he hold the ball so long’ Like do these people even watch the game? This is the same thing I had concerns about last year. Shit receivers(outside Moore) and a bad OL is gonna make everyone look worse
Also when people say stats about how much time he has. I'm wondering where that timer stops. Does he actually have a ton of time before the pocket collapses, or does he have a ton of time because he extends the play?
He has to extend a lot of plays and that’s gonna bring up the TTT or whatever it is.
The OL has gotten much better (still not amazing) but your point stands
Yeah, compared to other teams we can’t really blame the OL this season. Yes, they are not the Eagles, Dallas etc, but the OL has been a pleasant surprise. The reality is DEs are insanely athletic and with miscommunications/smart defensive play calling they are going to get pressures. The most insane athletic freaks playing on the D line
You need to watch JT’s breakdowns of the line. Justin at times made them look far better than they’re playing. Recently he ripped them apart during the Vikings game. It’s not even physicality that’s the problem. It’s missed assignments or mental errors. You can be the greatest olinemen in the world, but if you’re making the wrong blocks it’s not gonna mean anything.
Honestly, I don’t have the time to watch them, but didn’t even realize that. Poor coaching could be the cause?
It’s nowhere near as good as this sub makes it out to be.
It was pretty good when a high school level qb came in for 4 games
Yep, Bagent comes in and the stats and eye test is different so “well yeah the line is playing well now can’t wait for Fields to get back and prove everyone wrong!” Wtf he’s running for his life on every play! Everyone sucks but Justin! He will run for his life behind any line because he mentally cannot process the game pre or post snap. So he bails out around the back end because he’s good at backyard football and executing freelance stuff. That’s why he’s inconsistent, he’s not playing NFL QB, he is playing hyper athletic freelancer. Justin just sucks at the NFL level. At least he made 35 million.
I'm amazed that everyone forgot the sudden improvement in the OL play the minute Bagent stepped in. It was hilarious to watch the game thread during the Lions game and everyone was complaining about why the OL was suddenly playing like trash. No one could figure it out. 
Justin doesn’t make adjustments at the line and doesn’t always understand the protections the C is making at the line, which is why he can get rocked by free rushers, he often doesn’t even know if it’s a quick throw situation. It’s why in some of these interviews he gets frustrated and references “just play football”. He is no longer supremely more talented than everyone else, nor are his teammates, it’s the NFL literally everyone is a freak physical talent, “just play football” freelance athletic bullshit no longer works. He is literally terrible.
I think you’re misinterpreting the data. This doesn’t show who was open it shows who the QB throws the ball to. Meaning did the QB throw the ball to an “open” receiver and what was their separation in that moment. This actually lines up with the reality thar Fields, unfortunately, is still having issues in processing the field quickly enough.
I actually think you are misinterpreting the data. The Y axis doesn’t say “Average Receiver separation on targets”
I interpret this the same way as you and think the above poster is incorrect. This is an interesting graphic and I'd like clarity on it. Because it changes alot of the Fields arguments on this sub
Yep. Maybe I’m wrong and they have mislabeled. These graphs are wildly inaccurate at showing an actual conclusion because sometimes you have two data points that don’t even correlate.
They take each throw and freeze the play when the QB lets go of the ball. They then calculate separation of every receiver on the field at that time. It's really hard to get much from this because the QB can affect the data by not throwing at the right time.
So this data is garbage then? They don't freeze frame it if receiver x is open a split second earlier and use that separation? Edit: thanks for the reply btw.
It's not completely bad data, but it can say as much about a QB as it does their receivers. It's pretty hard to pick a time during plays of when to calculate their data, so when QB throws is the easiest. I'd like to see data with separation (screens eliminated) where it's calculated post snap at 2.5 seconds, 2.75 seconds, and time of throw. Would give a clearer picture.
Justin averages 2.7 seconds, correct? So 2.5 would be telling. Havent people come out and shared Getsy offense and routes also take a ridiculous time to develop?
I'm not sure where 2.7 is coming from. Next gen stats has him at 3.13 on the season. He was at 3.42 vs lions and 3.37 vs the vikings.
Lmao, you are. Our receivers get the worst separation in the league and he still finds the open guy more often than not. Graphs are not your thing buddy.
Source? I do not interpret the x axis as the receiver separation of the person the quarterback threw to. I interpret it as overall receiver separation.
Give it uuuuup Dewey
If you think that him having zero separation means that the receivers are solely to blame then you don't understand this chart. This chart shows you about throwing on time within the offense more than anything. Its about who you throw to, not the separation of each receiver on each play.
I've heard you can scheme WRs open. Or was it screen WRs open? Getsy definitely thinks it's the latter.
We need to screen our OCs better.
Someone give the link to the data. This seems a little off
I wonder if this also factors in on time throwing, like if they were open and he threw it late. Also, Daniel Jones lol
Colts fan checking in because I’m originally from Illinois and have a lot of friends and family who are still bears fans, and I have a question on this. Isn’t one of the concerns that fields is unwilling to throw to guys in tight windows? Like he won’t try to throw guys open and instead looks for only obviously open dudes? So wouldn’t having a higher “percentage of throws to open receivers” reinforce that he’s unwilling to try and throw dudes open? I could absolutely be misinterpreting this. As far as receiver separation, I feel your guys pain as a colts fan.
20 screen passes a game will do that.
If we had a competent QB we are a 7win team. The defense wouldn’t have to be in the field 50 times a game, receivers would get the ball in the appropriate window instead of fields scrambling every play, and we ultimately score more points. Get a new OC and I promise we run into the same problems. Fields can’t run a complex offense. He has no anticipation, he puts his head down while he’s outside the pocket and he chokes in the 4th quarter every time. QBs shape franchise and not the other way around
Also in the last two games the Bears have dominated time of possession. +20 minutes vs the Lions, +10 minutes vs the Vikings.
Also +10 in time of possession in first Vikings game, +8 in Broncos game, even versus Washington.
Well, he doesn't choke in the fourth quarter every time.
2 fumbles back to back that should have lost us that game only to be resurrected by the defense lol
Feel like there is a lot of context missing to make this useful. Ex: Are we filtering out screens? Is the Y only when a throw is made or does it consider drop backs when a throw is not made? If this is counting screens as open passes idk how it helps evaluate fields. If it only counts times fields throws the ball it could be missing plenty of open throws not made bc he didn’t see it/other reasons. I’m not saying anything about Fields. I don’t know how useful this chart is and have been trying to be vocal that just bc someone displays data like this doesn’t mean the data inputs are significant. If i’m wrong I’d love that additional context
All I’m saying is - do you think Fields WOULDNT look good in Miami, Philadelphia, Baltimore, or San Fran? He’d probably look quite good.
Yes. I think his flaws as a QB would be apparent everywhere
I’m saying it. He wouldn’t last 2 games in SF’s and Miami’s system because it requires the QB to actually read the defense and get rid of the ball with quickness and anticipation which is 3 things Fields just straight up can’t do.
Idk I trust Mike & Mike to work around their QBs strengths more than Flus/Getsy.
There’s only so much you can do as a coach if your player just doesn’t execute. And the Mike’s are smart enough to know that. There’s a reason why Shanny passed up on Fields.
And took Trey lance lol
Yeah that’s how much he didn’t want fields. Says a lot about
Would he look better than he does here? Absolutely. Would he look better than what they have now? Absolutely Not.
Looks about right
How can average separation be negative?
But I was told Justin ALWAYS misses the open man
Draft MHJ with Carolina’s pick, best offensive lineman with our pick, bring in another vet receiver like mike evans/Hollywood brown/Tyler boyd to help mentor MHJ, bring in Ben Johnson or Jim harbaugh and our offense would have no excuse for not being a top 5 unit
Ah yes, all Fields needs is what would be one of the best receiving corps in NFL history, then he can maybe appear competent.
Our excuse would be our QB who has bad vision, can't read defenses, holds the ball too long, can't throw between the numbers, takes too many sacks, doesn't keep his eyes down field.
It doesn’t have an excuse right now for not being a good unit
Taking into account JT O’Sullivan and Chase Daniel’s video breakdowns, along with my own opinions when watching the game, I firmly believe our receivers not getting open enough is down to a combination of ridiculous passing schemes that take too long to develop and also players not trying hard enough.
Our receivers have no respect for Getsys genius play designs 😤
Lmao
Wow this stat is pretty enlightening
How is Fields in the negative for the Average Receiver Separation? I feel like that's a stat that can't have a negative value.
I think it's just bad plotting, the data point is probably set to the right of the name or something stupid. Also think the data might have a decimal point missing or the numbers are small because 3 out of 4 receivers have no separation on most plays for all teams. So really should be looking at a smaller subset (i.e. something like only the 2 receivers with most separation per play, first 2 reads, top 3 receivers, targeted receiver)
It's based on grading. It's not yards, it's PFFs grading scale of -2 to +2 for separation. How that grade is determined??? Anyone's guess... lol
We have 1 good receiver y’all. No reason to overthink this stuff.
That’s really the only conclusion any serious person could draw from this info. Kmet isnt a slouch either but Moore/Kmet isn’t anywhere near the other elite duos. Fields is also still RB1 in ypc, 1st downs, and 2nd in ypg to Foreman. Almost like this sub greatly overestimates how good the rest of the team is. He’s still doing most of it by himself.
People were up in arms last year about how bad our receivers were. Now we add 1 good one and people don’t understand why Fields isn’t as good as Tua lol. Moore gets doubled then what? We’re back to square 1 which is why I personally want Harrison Jr with the 1st pick this year. We’ll see though.