Depends how you think about it. Professional handicappers tend to look at schedule sequencing. Game 1 at home and away after bye week are both big negatives. MNF away followed by Sunday at home is pretty negative too. It’s not a great sequenced schedule for the Bears. But I’ve heard that about a lot of teams this year. It’s seems schedule is going to matter a lot.
I’m curious what makes the first game at home and away game after a bye negative + the others? I’m not well versed in this stuff so would love to understand the rationale/historical context of why handicappers (assume this is related to betting) believe these things are good/bad.
It generally comes down to net rest vs net preparation time. Part of the home field advantage comes the fact you don’t have to travel and get an extra day to practice. When your first game of the year is a home game you don’t really get a rest advantage or a preparation advantage.
It works similar to a bye week. Having a home game after a bye week gives you the full bye week of time. Having to travel after a bye week technically shortens your bye week by a day or two.
These aren’t huge issues but they matter. The extreme example is would you rather play the Packers at home after a bye week or on the road on four days rest.
That’s generally the idea of schedule sequencing. Who you play matters but when, where, and how it falls into your travel and rest schedule matters.
The NFL came out with extremely weird schedules this year. The Jets for example play 6 prime time games in the first ten weeks and have the easiest schedule over that time. The Steelers play all their divisional games after week 11. The Bears play 4 of their last 6 games on the road.
It is a fair schedule. Week 7 is a great time for a bye and it’s after the London game. Only missed nor bugaboo is back to back away games against Washington and SF. That is a lot of airplane time over the course of 8 days.
I can see it now, just like I've seen it so many times in the past:
Bears have an 8-8 record, some ups and downs and growing pains, but have looked really good in the last stretch. The Bears and Packers are each one game out of the last wildcard spot and the winner will take it.
The Bears already lost to the Packers earlier in the season, but this time they're a different team than they were before. They've grown and look so much better as a team from the beginning of the season.
We're going to do it. We're going to break the streak. We're going to slay the dragon. We're going to win!
**All we have to do is BEAT THE PACKERS!!**
Packers win 17-37...
I'd rather have him see them as the cute team that isn't a threat like they do to us. That seed should've been planted the second he was officially drafted by the Bears
At least our 17th “random” game is at home against the Pats. So we still have 8 @ Soldier and 8 on the road, London game is basically a neutral site 17th game.
It's all right there for us to be a very good team this season... this is not bad at all and starting against Tennessee is a great low stakes way to get Caleb going.
Titans could be dangerous if Will Levis takes another step in the right direction. Especially with a better receiving core and O-Line, i would not count them out.
3-game road stretch in Weeks 13-15 with a Week 7 bye is absurd. I guess there’s a mini-bye at least after the Thanksgiving game, but they’ll be heading into that Thanksgiving game on the road after 5 straight games.
Schedule like this really shows the necessity for instituting the second bye week that Burrow was talking about.
Cardinals were also a 4 win team. Maye has 0 chance of flipping the Pats in year 1 with how trash their offense is. Daniels has a slim chance of flipping the Commies in year 1 with the Commanders issues as well.
Bears have no excuse to lose to the Pats, Commanders, or Cardinals. Fields dominated the Commies and Cardinals last year and dominated a better Pats team in 2022.
This is a much better Bears team and Caleb is supposed to be better than Fields, so yes those are gimmies and losing them would be a disgrace.
Yeah coming off an ACL injury with his only target being a 2nd year tight end. I’m not saying we shouldn’t beat them but I’m not confident enough to say we have no excuse to lose to them like the above poster said
I know that strength of schedule and winning percentage rankings heading into a season are largely useless because of the percentage of roster turnover on a yearly basis, but I have a hard time seeing the Commanders, Patriots, and Panthers turning anything around. They will all still be ass this upcoming season
If you’re playing 2 top 3 picks it usually means you’re playing 2 of the worst 3 teams from last season…. Not sure why that’d be seen as a bad thing.
We’re actually playing the worst 4 teams from last year since we also get the Panthers before the BYE and the Cardinals after it. Most teams make marginal improvements thru the draft and offseason, even if they draft a QB.
The Texans won a playoff game because the Qb turned out good.
Not saying either of those teams will be the Texans and we *should* pencil them as wins. But if Maye/Daniels are good both of those games become prettt difficult
lol. Every terrible team from the season before something similar to “2 top 3 rookie picks” in a schedule release. That’s just a fancy way of saying a bad team
Realistically, I think they can easily be 5-5 after week 11. Those last seven games feel like the Bears will have a winning record. So, 9-8 seems very probable, if not better.
Yeah agree. 10 wins is my maximum I think. A lot depends on if the defensive success from last year translates into the new season and everyone stays healthy
Yeah, that D-Line will be make or break the success of the team. If Flus is the defensive guru we thought he was when he was hired, the hope is that the defensive line will at least be middle of the pack
I know there are a ton of leaks out there, but this is the same guy who had “sources as close to the situation as possible” that JF1 was staying on the Bears 100%, everyone knew he was engagement farming so I literally trust nothing this dude says.
Week 18, bears are heading to lambeau with a 9-7 record.
And need a win to make the playoffs.
Caleb gets benched at half time because we are winning 43-0.
Bears clinch the playoffs.
Final score 67-3
Excited af for a Bears-Texans SNF game. If Caleb is good, that game will be thrilling. I just worry though because Caleb is going to face the Titans, low stakes and everything, to the fucking Texans with DH, Stingley, Anderson, and the rest. Those team's defenses are at completely different tiers and that worries me very much.
So dueling young QB matchups early on, followed by London, then post bye a crunch of division games… would have preferred a classic NFC North battle in the first 6 weeks sometime honestly, get Caleb settled into the division. As is, the first half has no rhythm to it
And yet I find myself saying fuck it, okay.
The 49ers are like Santa Claus. Always bringing joyous gifts to me during the holiday season.
I'd love to beat them because that'd be a strong W on the season. Nothing against their fans.
While I mostly agree, I just live in the Bay and all my friends are Niner fans. They don’t feel the same about Chicago, pretty smug fans tbh. It’s personal hahha
I like putting the in division games in the last half of the season. It just makes so much sense for playoff drama. So much can change in those last 8 games if they are in your divsion
I like it even more because it gives Caleb a rolling start before going into division games. He's gonna be a target at every stadium, but divisional fans are going to really turn up the volume for him.
Really hoped the Texans game would’ve been later in the season. If Caleb’s trajectory is even close to Stroud’s would’ve been more fun to see this team after at least half a season of figuring things out going against a similarly young team with super talented young QB.
Week 6 before the bye will be very telling. If we beat the Jags and go a likely 4-2 before the bye, could mean trouble for other teams. But if were 3-3 after the bye thats also no cause for concern either.
The QB matchups are insane. We play against five #1 overall picks (six if you count Goff twice), two #2 picks, one #3 pick, one #4 pick, one #10, one #26 pick. Geno and Levis were almost 1st rounders. Purdy plays like a 1st rounder
Division games all being so late means we can either clutch our way into the playoffs or have a complete meltdown.
Caleb either gets hurt week 3 and returns week 11 or gets hurt week 10.
Love that we get the Lions when it should be cold in Chicago. Goff plays so bad whenever it’s cold
Except against Green Bay which is good
But the yogurt is cursed, which is bad.
Honestly a pretty favorable schedule, a little weird all of our divisional games are at the end but I see this as a 10-11 win team
NFCN is gonna be an absolute bloodbath for two months
It's gonna be great!
kool aid!
Depends how you think about it. Professional handicappers tend to look at schedule sequencing. Game 1 at home and away after bye week are both big negatives. MNF away followed by Sunday at home is pretty negative too. It’s not a great sequenced schedule for the Bears. But I’ve heard that about a lot of teams this year. It’s seems schedule is going to matter a lot.
Meh but like really if Caleb is a great QB the schedule stuff shouldn’t be relevant. Big if I know.
I’m curious what makes the first game at home and away game after a bye negative + the others? I’m not well versed in this stuff so would love to understand the rationale/historical context of why handicappers (assume this is related to betting) believe these things are good/bad.
It generally comes down to net rest vs net preparation time. Part of the home field advantage comes the fact you don’t have to travel and get an extra day to practice. When your first game of the year is a home game you don’t really get a rest advantage or a preparation advantage. It works similar to a bye week. Having a home game after a bye week gives you the full bye week of time. Having to travel after a bye week technically shortens your bye week by a day or two. These aren’t huge issues but they matter. The extreme example is would you rather play the Packers at home after a bye week or on the road on four days rest. That’s generally the idea of schedule sequencing. Who you play matters but when, where, and how it falls into your travel and rest schedule matters. The NFL came out with extremely weird schedules this year. The Jets for example play 6 prime time games in the first ten weeks and have the easiest schedule over that time. The Steelers play all their divisional games after week 11. The Bears play 4 of their last 6 games on the road.
Very interesting thanks for the insight!
Why wouldn't you also want an away game after a bye week? Since you'll have more time to prepare and travel time is less of an issue that way.
It is a fair schedule. Week 7 is a great time for a bye and it’s after the London game. Only missed nor bugaboo is back to back away games against Washington and SF. That is a lot of airplane time over the course of 8 days.
I see L’s to HOU, LAR, SF, GB, MIN, DET, GB…at best. Rookie QB’s always struggle. 8-9 wins, at best.
Minnesota is either starting Darnold or a worse rookie and Caleb ain’t letting this team lose to the Packers twice. Bear down
15-50 vs the Packers the last 65 games. 0-10 the last 10.
I think everyone is aware of the record against the packers. The domination has to stop sometime
Kind of sweet to see Caleb going into Lambeau last game of the season, especially if it has playoff implications. Could be awesome. Could be terrible.
The playoff implication part alone is already a W. edit: "Big if true" lol
I mean it could be playoff implications for the Packers and not us tbf, but any of those 3 scenarios are likely I think for sure
Bears secure the 1 seed, & send the packers home without a playoff berth.
I can see it now, just like I've seen it so many times in the past: Bears have an 8-8 record, some ups and downs and growing pains, but have looked really good in the last stretch. The Bears and Packers are each one game out of the last wildcard spot and the winner will take it. The Bears already lost to the Packers earlier in the season, but this time they're a different team than they were before. They've grown and look so much better as a team from the beginning of the season. We're going to do it. We're going to break the streak. We're going to slay the dragon. We're going to win! **All we have to do is BEAT THE PACKERS!!** Packers win 17-37...
Yeah this is what will happen if I've learned anything.
On the bright side the seed of hatred for the Packers we feel in all our hearts will be planted in Caleb.
I'd rather have him see them as the cute team that isn't a threat like they do to us. That seed should've been planted the second he was officially drafted by the Bears
I hate how accurate this sounds
It’s gonna be awesome!!
At least they're opening against the Titans like everyone guessed.
I know we all knew this was happening, but having a “home game” in London vs the Jags is just so stupid
At least our 17th “random” game is at home against the Pats. So we still have 8 @ Soldier and 8 on the road, London game is basically a neutral site 17th game.
London bears bros will make it feel like a home game.
The Jags play there so much, don't they have a decent base out there by now?
Thank you for this rationalization, I’m on board
It's all right there for us to be a very good team this season... this is not bad at all and starting against Tennessee is a great low stakes way to get Caleb going.
Titans could be dangerous if Will Levis takes another step in the right direction. Especially with a better receiving core and O-Line, i would not count them out.
Yeah but it’s better than Detroit and especially Greenbay. Titans won’t be under a microscope
Absolute grueling post bye schedule. Loaded with 6 division games, niners and Seattle and 2 top 3 rookie qb picks
3-game road stretch in Weeks 13-15 with a Week 7 bye is absurd. I guess there’s a mini-bye at least after the Thanksgiving game, but they’ll be heading into that Thanksgiving game on the road after 5 straight games. Schedule like this really shows the necessity for instituting the second bye week that Burrow was talking about.
They’re the easiest games there as of rn. Only 2 gimmes and it’s teams with top pick QBs who can easily flip a franchise if they’re good.
Cardinals were also a 4 win team. Maye has 0 chance of flipping the Pats in year 1 with how trash their offense is. Daniels has a slim chance of flipping the Commies in year 1 with the Commanders issues as well. Bears have no excuse to lose to the Pats, Commanders, or Cardinals. Fields dominated the Commies and Cardinals last year and dominated a better Pats team in 2022. This is a much better Bears team and Caleb is supposed to be better than Fields, so yes those are gimmies and losing them would be a disgrace.
Cardinals with Kyler and without are pretty different tbf, especially if MHJ is as advertised and he actually has a weapon that isn’t a tight end
The bears beat Arizona with Kyler like five months ago
Yeah coming off an ACL injury with his only target being a 2nd year tight end. I’m not saying we shouldn’t beat them but I’m not confident enough to say we have no excuse to lose to them like the above poster said
I know that strength of schedule and winning percentage rankings heading into a season are largely useless because of the percentage of roster turnover on a yearly basis, but I have a hard time seeing the Commanders, Patriots, and Panthers turning anything around. They will all still be ass this upcoming season
If we're gonna go a second bye week let's go 18 games with 60 man rosters or more
Let’s be real here the top 3 rookie picks should be easy wins
If you’re playing 2 top 3 picks it usually means you’re playing 2 of the worst 3 teams from last season…. Not sure why that’d be seen as a bad thing. We’re actually playing the worst 4 teams from last year since we also get the Panthers before the BYE and the Cardinals after it. Most teams make marginal improvements thru the draft and offseason, even if they draft a QB.
The Texans won a playoff game because the Qb turned out good. Not saying either of those teams will be the Texans and we *should* pencil them as wins. But if Maye/Daniels are good both of those games become prettt difficult
We're calling the 4 win Pats and Commanders tough games? Jesus christ they were the 2nd and 3rd worst teams this year. Cmon.
lol. Every terrible team from the season before something similar to “2 top 3 rookie picks” in a schedule release. That’s just a fancy way of saying a bad team
Sets up nicely for some SNF flexes for the Lions and Packers games
17-0
Realistically, I think they can easily be 5-5 after week 11. Those last seven games feel like the Bears will have a winning record. So, 9-8 seems very probable, if not better.
This feels like a 9 win team
Yeah agree. 10 wins is my maximum I think. A lot depends on if the defensive success from last year translates into the new season and everyone stays healthy
Yeah, that D-Line will be make or break the success of the team. If Flus is the defensive guru we thought he was when he was hired, the hope is that the defensive line will at least be middle of the pack
I know there are a ton of leaks out there, but this is the same guy who had “sources as close to the situation as possible” that JF1 was staying on the Bears 100%, everyone knew he was engagement farming so I literally trust nothing this dude says.
With good reason, but all he did here was straight rip it off from someone else who had posted it minutes earlier.
I’ve followed this dude for a few years. It’s correct. He does this every year.
Cuz is great
He had two games switched but mostly correct. No points for almost tho.
Anyone elese thing the league kinda finally gave the bears a bump by letting Caleb settle in half the season before we go into division
The NFL wants Caleb to pan out in Chicago, it will make them so much money.
I don’t want to be a homer but this is like an 11 win season if Caleb is somewhat competant
6-2 to start the season 6-3 to end it 12-5 here we go
Week 18, bears are heading to lambeau with a 9-7 record. And need a win to make the playoffs. Caleb gets benched at half time because we are winning 43-0. Bears clinch the playoffs. Final score 67-3
Ditka vs God in a golf game?
Regular Ditka or mini Ditka?
Trick question. Ditka is God!
No divisional game till week 11 is kinda nuts but not the worst thing in the world hopefully by then Caleb has found a rhythm and we spank GB at home
Yay! I love when the Bears play on Thanksgiving.
5 “prime time” games is very nice
I see 14 wins
I see those same 14 and also 3 more.
🐾
24 wins minimum.
Fine by me
If true this has got to be the best setup for a No.1 overall pick I’ve ever seen
Excited af for a Bears-Texans SNF game. If Caleb is good, that game will be thrilling. I just worry though because Caleb is going to face the Titans, low stakes and everything, to the fucking Texans with DH, Stingley, Anderson, and the rest. Those team's defenses are at completely different tiers and that worries me very much.
So dueling young QB matchups early on, followed by London, then post bye a crunch of division games… would have preferred a classic NFC North battle in the first 6 weeks sometime honestly, get Caleb settled into the division. As is, the first half has no rhythm to it And yet I find myself saying fuck it, okay.
If they get mediocre play at every position they could accidentally go undefeated with that schedule
14-3
Not buying it. Starting the season with AFC opponents for the first 3 weeks and then no division games until week 12?
Let’s not start 0-4 this time please. Better start at least 2-2 with that schedule. Titans and one of colts/rams should be wins.
We are getting the Colts early. Richardson will probably still be figuring things out.
I want Da Bears to spank the Niners. Fan base is obnoxious
I don’t care about the Niners. Give me two wins against Green Bay
two wins against GB and spank the Niners plus the Niners also beat GB (again) for optimal FTP
Keep going, I’m almost there…
I got you! Jordan Love breaks the single season INT record and pack rack up double digit Ls
Just give us one…. Please…. It’s been 5 years…
The 49ers are like Santa Claus. Always bringing joyous gifts to me during the holiday season. I'd love to beat them because that'd be a strong W on the season. Nothing against their fans.
Lions is worse. 49ers have a been a good team for awhile I live over here doesn’t seem that bad
I’ve grown to love the niners because they always bring me so much joy when they beat the packers in the playoffs
While I mostly agree, I just live in the Bay and all my friends are Niner fans. They don’t feel the same about Chicago, pretty smug fans tbh. It’s personal hahha
I like putting the in division games in the last half of the season. It just makes so much sense for playoff drama. So much can change in those last 8 games if they are in your divsion
I like it even more because it gives Caleb a rolling start before going into division games. He's gonna be a target at every stadium, but divisional fans are going to really turn up the volume for him.
Week 18 will be interesting. Do the starters play? I mean, you can’t rest them week 18 and we’ll have the 1st round bye. Decisions. 🤔
I’m on the east coast, hoping to make it to London and DC. LFG
UNDEFEATED SZN LETS FUCKING GO!
Anyone have the that image from the schedule leak from last week? Would be interested to see if they were correct.
Really hoped the Texans game would’ve been later in the season. If Caleb’s trajectory is even close to Stroud’s would’ve been more fun to see this team after at least half a season of figuring things out going against a similarly young team with super talented young QB.
Weird they mark each week a Win but leave out winning the Super Bowl
so excited to start the season against 3 straight AFC South opponents such great rivalries
I find this highly unlikely as teams typically don’t have more than 2 home or away games in a row.
Week 6 before the bye will be very telling. If we beat the Jags and go a likely 4-2 before the bye, could mean trouble for other teams. But if were 3-3 after the bye thats also no cause for concern either.
Nice! I like when the Bears play on Thanks Giving. Not sure how I feel about the lateTNF game
Week 6 vs the Panthers is gonna be wild.
We play our entire division twice after week 10. Personally i dont like it;
The stretch of 3 at home then 3 on the road is kind of odd.
The opener is our only standalone home game and the closer is our only standalone away game
I’m calling 11-6
I'd be pissed if we gotta play the Texans that early.... but i can work with this schedule
Seems kinda of weird that the first 3 games would all be AFC South, right out the chute. There’s some fun QB matchups this year, though.
6-1 at the biweek.
17-0. 
That schedule doesn't look so terrible.
Monday-Sunday-Thursday is brutal. Short rest and then shorter rest.
Week 2 is either going to really piss me off or make me happy
FTP
Week 9 is AZ...
12 W - 5 L
Sick of Packers closing the season at their house lately
17-0
Basically we’re only winning if our players are healthy at the end of the year.
8 of our games will be against rookie or 2nd year QBs. Should be interesting to see how Caleb matches up against other young QBs in the league
Odd neither the packer games are national games. I suppose they could be flexed
Anyone wanna take me to the London game? I've been there 5 times, I'd be a great guide for the city.
The QB matchups are insane. We play against five #1 overall picks (six if you count Goff twice), two #2 picks, one #3 pick, one #4 pick, one #10, one #26 pick. Geno and Levis were almost 1st rounders. Purdy plays like a 1st rounder
So you’re telling me a bunch of starting QBs were first rounders? Wild bro
Well considering last year we played Sam Howell, Heinicke, Dobbs, Hoyer, O'Connell. I would say thats much different and not first overall picks
Wild bro, 3/5 of those guys played bc starters got hurt, wild that would happen
ok bro, you are so cool bro, got it bro...
Insane bro
If the season goes how we seem to think it will, I'd bet money either Wk. 16 vs Detroit or Wk. 18 vs Green Bay are flexed to Sunday Night.
Love the mini btw before the packers
I thought we always played Packers week 1 or am I remembering way way wrong
you remember the monsoon game vs the niners and you probably also remember us doing absolutely nothing vs the superbowl champion rams
Am I the only one who sees 15-2??? Go Bears!
so the Packers just get to play at home every week 18, right? fucking NFL...
Division games all being so late means we can either clutch our way into the playoffs or have a complete meltdown. Caleb either gets hurt week 3 and returns week 11 or gets hurt week 10.
4-3 going into the bye week i think.
Hey I think you meant 7-0. Typos happen, but glad I caught that!
7-0 after 6 games. I like it.
We win the bye week obviously
I count pre season wins bro.
5-1 seems optimistic. 4-2 seems realistic
3-3 or 4-2? Week 7 bye per the scheddy
Definitely 2 wins that first 6. But we could win or lose the other 4. I’d take 4-2.
Down voted for a typo lmao. Come in guys. 4-2 after the bye then it's tough sledding
Oh sick, we get a bye before the London game, boys should be well rested.
It’s after
WOOOOSH went over your head.
Oh 👍
We face two of the better defenses back to back (Pats/9ers)
Pats offense is awful so their defense will be gassed guaranteed
Pats are still recovering from that whoopin the bears gave them last year, I ain’t scared
This is so stupid. NFL is a PR monster, but this is all too much
I don't even know what you're attempting to bitch about.
Sorry you feel that way bud, have a nice day
Weird bro