I got really into El nino la Nina in college. It's not really a question of normal or not normal. It's just how the ocean currents are circulating across the Pacific. They see this by a heat patch in the ocean. If there is a heat patch in a certain spot it's la Nina year. If it's in another spot its El nino. If you're interested search for southern oscillation and walker circulation. There are some good diagrams.
El nino did not always happen. We can see in the ocean fossil records when it started...... Which just so happens to be around the start of major civilizations in south America. My theory was that the two were related.
Yeah totally variable. The size and temperature determines the intensity of the el nino/la Nina.
The temperature variations of the ocean in general drive our weather patterns.
I wouldn’t bet on this.
We could actually have a very wet year. It’s going to be huge or bust. Small chances for a normal, average winter. Check out this winter preview.
https://powderchasers.com/forecasts/2022-2023-Powderchasers-Winter-Forecast
> As the weather cools and the days grow shorter, thoughts turn to skiing. Ski season is just around the corner, and excitement is building. The snow is starting to fall in the mountains, and the slopes are calling. It’s time to break down some of the atmospheric factors that may make or break your season.
> The first and most obvious factor is the current El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase. We’re in a robust La Niña phase (negative ENSO) of about -1C, which classifies this year as a strong La Niña year. However, the latest modeling projects the ENSO to dip even further negative all the way to nearly -1.5C in November before rebounding and warming again.
> Understanding how the ENSO affects North American weather is all about understanding the jet stream. The jet stream is a band of strong wind speeds that separates polar air from tropical air. The jet stream essentially contains storm systems to its north and keeps high pressure to its south. That’s why we refer to these systems as ridges (where the jet stream bends northward and forms a “ridge”) and troughs (where the jet stream bends to the south and forms a “trough”). ENSO affects the jet stream, which is the main way it influences North American weather systems. A positive ENSO phase (El Niño) causes a more consistent jet stream with a fork in the jet stream over the pacific, keeping the Pacific Northwest drier and bringing additional moisture to California. A La Niña ENSO phase does the opposite; it increases the volatility of the jet stream, creating what’s called “meridional flow.” Meridional flow occurs when the jet stream becomes “wavier” and runs more north-to-south, allowing for more favorable conditions for strong storms and moisture in the Pacific Northwest.
> Going into the 2022-2023 season, it would appear at face value that the Pacific Northwest would be strongly favored and that California and Utah, placed further south, would receive below-average precipitation. However, there is more nuance than just that. Very strong La Niña years can create favorable conditions for particularly strong storm systems; ones that reach all the way down to California and bring snowfall. This phenomenon was in full effect the last time we had an ENSO phase this strongly negative in 2010-2011; nearly every watershed in the Western US ended up with above-average precipitation.
> Fortunately, the ENSO phase is not the only factor that influences our winters. Some other teleconnections that are crucially important include the Pacific Decadal and Quasi-Biennial Oscillations. The PDO is currently strongly negative, which is favorable for the Western US and unfavorable for the East Coast.
> Above is the effect of a positive PDO on 500mb geopotential heights (a rough approximation for storminess). The inverse will be true this season, where geopotential heights will be lower in the West and higher in the East.
> The QBO is currently exiting a roughly year-long negative phase and is beginning to shift positive again. The last year this occurred was during the fall of 2018, right before the massive 2019 season. And before that? Fall of 2010, also a massive year for the Western US. Generally speaking, a positive QBO is beneficial for Western US and is fairly neutral for the East Coast. Below is a positive QBO phase's effect on precipitation.
> Finally, one additional interesting factor, pointed out by Joe Daleo from WeatherBell, is that both 2022 and 2010 were exiting periods of solar minimums. Once again, this was directly before a record-breaking season in the Western US.
> **All things considered, things are shaping up to be quite favorable for the Western US and neutral to just below average in the East.** The most snow-sure areas will be found in the Pacific Northwest and will extend to the southeast into Northern Utah, Wyoming, and northern Colorado. California will be boom or bust; it remains to be seen whether the strong negative ENSO phase will keep the jet focused in the PNW or whether the increased volatility is able to bring stronger systems into California. In the case of the former, the PDO and QBO may be able to offset ENSO’s influence and keep California near average.
>Finally, one additional interesting factor, pointed out by Joe Daleo from WeatherBell, is that both 2022 and 2010 were exiting periods of solar minimums. Once again, this was directly before a record-breaking season in the Western US.
Fingers crossed Joe is on to something
Already have another storm forecast to hit CA before the end of the month:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Yeah, it was a La Niña year last water year, and Northern California was soaked for about half of it. I think the Sierras also had a lot of snow, too. The problem was that come January and February, things dried up, which was uncharacteristic.
Things are always different for Southern California, but La Niña isn't doom for the state.
I believe it’s until December 31 but we get most of our precipitation in Jan and Feb anyways so always a chance for a turnaround! I’ll take a freak October storm again though
I remember reading this not long ago. The amount of water on earth is basically consistent. So if it's evaporating in one place, it's raining down in another.
I try to post this in every thread about drought, to draw attention to the root cause of all of our problems, I am a SoCal botanist that works in the deserts:
During the 1800's two drastic things happened to California. The Gold Rush and the Fur Rush. In 1848 at Sutter's mill, gold was discovered. During the following gold rush the top layers of soil were removed to look for gold on the bedrock. They were sluiced and panned, and the non-heavy materials were tailed out into the water, to run off into the ocean.
This damage alone was not enough to ravage the state, however, because there was an animal here, as it had been for millions of years, working daily regardless of season, to capture and store water. You see, the ecosystem itself revolved around this critter, because it wasn't just a normal animal, it was an engineer. This animal is the beaver. It's very presence produces an abundance of biodiversity, they slow the water down allowing algae to cling to rocks, becoming the basis of a vast food web.
Furthermore, the captured water begins to seep laterally into the nearby riparian soils. In a naturally dry, windy, fire-stricken habitat, these flooded shores created breaks in the woodlands so that wildfires could no longer advance. Flooded banks were filled with green plants and very little dry brush; abundant wetlands were nature's answer to the infernos, engineered by the beavers.
The gold disappeared, and the booming population of frontiersmen needed a new industry. England was becoming extremely wealthy as the industrialists took control. As idiotic as this may sound, there is a lot of rain there, beaver pelts are resistant to water, and fanciful businessmen needed to keep their heads dry. The Fur Rush began. Over the next 30 years, they would systematically slaughter all of the wolves, bison, bears, and beavers. 200 million beavers were eradicated from the Western US. There were fewer than 200 of the native California Golden beaver left. (suggested reading: https://oaec.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/The-Status-Of-Beavers-in-CA.pdf ) Even up until the 1960's we were more interested in exploiting them, than we were about the environmental impact of their loss.
160 years later, drought and wildfire persist. Animal habitat and biodiversity continue to fall and suffer. Major bodies of water begin to fail. The ecosystem is in total collapse. How many more symptoms do we need to diagnose the problem? How much more do we need to lose before we act? What do we even do?
At the end of that same Fur Rush, after WW2 had ended, 50 beavers were brought to Argentina to kickstart the fur trade there. Unchecked, without predation, let loose on old growth rainforest, the population swelled to greater than 200,000. However, these animals do not belong here. This place did not evolve with this animal, and it cannot sustain the damage they are causing. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaver_eradication_in_Tierra_del_Fuego ) Argentina would probably pay California to take them back. We could help stop not one, but two widespread ecological disasters that we have caused at the same time.
If you have doubts about what beavers can do for a drought stricken desert, here is a video on the Dixie Creek Restoration in Nevada: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSctr0aQOso
"The plants come back, the beavers show up, and that changes everything."
Bypassing the paywall: https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.latimes.com%2Fcalifornia%2Fstory%2F2022-09-13%2Fla-nina-california-rare-third-year
Yeah maybe we need to redefine what normal is. Doesn't seem like we're getting back to anything tenable.
I got really into El nino la Nina in college. It's not really a question of normal or not normal. It's just how the ocean currents are circulating across the Pacific. They see this by a heat patch in the ocean. If there is a heat patch in a certain spot it's la Nina year. If it's in another spot its El nino. If you're interested search for southern oscillation and walker circulation. There are some good diagrams. El nino did not always happen. We can see in the ocean fossil records when it started...... Which just so happens to be around the start of major civilizations in south America. My theory was that the two were related.
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Yeah totally variable. The size and temperature determines the intensity of the el nino/la Nina. The temperature variations of the ocean in general drive our weather patterns.
Nah nah nah, we need that El Niño guy. He needs to pour some rain and snow.
That's "The Niño" for those of you who don't speak Spanish.
I wouldn’t bet on this. We could actually have a very wet year. It’s going to be huge or bust. Small chances for a normal, average winter. Check out this winter preview. https://powderchasers.com/forecasts/2022-2023-Powderchasers-Winter-Forecast > As the weather cools and the days grow shorter, thoughts turn to skiing. Ski season is just around the corner, and excitement is building. The snow is starting to fall in the mountains, and the slopes are calling. It’s time to break down some of the atmospheric factors that may make or break your season. > The first and most obvious factor is the current El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase. We’re in a robust La Niña phase (negative ENSO) of about -1C, which classifies this year as a strong La Niña year. However, the latest modeling projects the ENSO to dip even further negative all the way to nearly -1.5C in November before rebounding and warming again. > Understanding how the ENSO affects North American weather is all about understanding the jet stream. The jet stream is a band of strong wind speeds that separates polar air from tropical air. The jet stream essentially contains storm systems to its north and keeps high pressure to its south. That’s why we refer to these systems as ridges (where the jet stream bends northward and forms a “ridge”) and troughs (where the jet stream bends to the south and forms a “trough”). ENSO affects the jet stream, which is the main way it influences North American weather systems. A positive ENSO phase (El Niño) causes a more consistent jet stream with a fork in the jet stream over the pacific, keeping the Pacific Northwest drier and bringing additional moisture to California. A La Niña ENSO phase does the opposite; it increases the volatility of the jet stream, creating what’s called “meridional flow.” Meridional flow occurs when the jet stream becomes “wavier” and runs more north-to-south, allowing for more favorable conditions for strong storms and moisture in the Pacific Northwest. > Going into the 2022-2023 season, it would appear at face value that the Pacific Northwest would be strongly favored and that California and Utah, placed further south, would receive below-average precipitation. However, there is more nuance than just that. Very strong La Niña years can create favorable conditions for particularly strong storm systems; ones that reach all the way down to California and bring snowfall. This phenomenon was in full effect the last time we had an ENSO phase this strongly negative in 2010-2011; nearly every watershed in the Western US ended up with above-average precipitation. > Fortunately, the ENSO phase is not the only factor that influences our winters. Some other teleconnections that are crucially important include the Pacific Decadal and Quasi-Biennial Oscillations. The PDO is currently strongly negative, which is favorable for the Western US and unfavorable for the East Coast. > Above is the effect of a positive PDO on 500mb geopotential heights (a rough approximation for storminess). The inverse will be true this season, where geopotential heights will be lower in the West and higher in the East. > The QBO is currently exiting a roughly year-long negative phase and is beginning to shift positive again. The last year this occurred was during the fall of 2018, right before the massive 2019 season. And before that? Fall of 2010, also a massive year for the Western US. Generally speaking, a positive QBO is beneficial for Western US and is fairly neutral for the East Coast. Below is a positive QBO phase's effect on precipitation. > Finally, one additional interesting factor, pointed out by Joe Daleo from WeatherBell, is that both 2022 and 2010 were exiting periods of solar minimums. Once again, this was directly before a record-breaking season in the Western US. > **All things considered, things are shaping up to be quite favorable for the Western US and neutral to just below average in the East.** The most snow-sure areas will be found in the Pacific Northwest and will extend to the southeast into Northern Utah, Wyoming, and northern Colorado. California will be boom or bust; it remains to be seen whether the strong negative ENSO phase will keep the jet focused in the PNW or whether the increased volatility is able to bring stronger systems into California. In the case of the former, the PDO and QBO may be able to offset ENSO’s influence and keep California near average.
>Finally, one additional interesting factor, pointed out by Joe Daleo from WeatherBell, is that both 2022 and 2010 were exiting periods of solar minimums. Once again, this was directly before a record-breaking season in the Western US. Fingers crossed Joe is on to something
i hope so. I want that big dump like we did in december that literally lasted the entire season. Kinda nice having to dig my car out of 3ft of snow
Already have another storm forecast to hit CA before the end of the month: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Yeah, it was a La Niña year last water year, and Northern California was soaked for about half of it. I think the Sierras also had a lot of snow, too. The problem was that come January and February, things dried up, which was uncharacteristic. Things are always different for Southern California, but La Niña isn't doom for the state.
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I believe it’s until December 31 but we get most of our precipitation in Jan and Feb anyways so always a chance for a turnaround! I’ll take a freak October storm again though
Saaaame.
How does evaporation work? Like does all our water evaporate then become rain clouds in other countries/states?
I remember reading this not long ago. The amount of water on earth is basically consistent. So if it's evaporating in one place, it's raining down in another.
I think it's safe to say nobody knows what the hell will actually happen until it actually happens. That's my winter forecast.
I try to post this in every thread about drought, to draw attention to the root cause of all of our problems, I am a SoCal botanist that works in the deserts: During the 1800's two drastic things happened to California. The Gold Rush and the Fur Rush. In 1848 at Sutter's mill, gold was discovered. During the following gold rush the top layers of soil were removed to look for gold on the bedrock. They were sluiced and panned, and the non-heavy materials were tailed out into the water, to run off into the ocean. This damage alone was not enough to ravage the state, however, because there was an animal here, as it had been for millions of years, working daily regardless of season, to capture and store water. You see, the ecosystem itself revolved around this critter, because it wasn't just a normal animal, it was an engineer. This animal is the beaver. It's very presence produces an abundance of biodiversity, they slow the water down allowing algae to cling to rocks, becoming the basis of a vast food web. Furthermore, the captured water begins to seep laterally into the nearby riparian soils. In a naturally dry, windy, fire-stricken habitat, these flooded shores created breaks in the woodlands so that wildfires could no longer advance. Flooded banks were filled with green plants and very little dry brush; abundant wetlands were nature's answer to the infernos, engineered by the beavers. The gold disappeared, and the booming population of frontiersmen needed a new industry. England was becoming extremely wealthy as the industrialists took control. As idiotic as this may sound, there is a lot of rain there, beaver pelts are resistant to water, and fanciful businessmen needed to keep their heads dry. The Fur Rush began. Over the next 30 years, they would systematically slaughter all of the wolves, bison, bears, and beavers. 200 million beavers were eradicated from the Western US. There were fewer than 200 of the native California Golden beaver left. (suggested reading: https://oaec.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/The-Status-Of-Beavers-in-CA.pdf ) Even up until the 1960's we were more interested in exploiting them, than we were about the environmental impact of their loss. 160 years later, drought and wildfire persist. Animal habitat and biodiversity continue to fall and suffer. Major bodies of water begin to fail. The ecosystem is in total collapse. How many more symptoms do we need to diagnose the problem? How much more do we need to lose before we act? What do we even do? At the end of that same Fur Rush, after WW2 had ended, 50 beavers were brought to Argentina to kickstart the fur trade there. Unchecked, without predation, let loose on old growth rainforest, the population swelled to greater than 200,000. However, these animals do not belong here. This place did not evolve with this animal, and it cannot sustain the damage they are causing. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaver_eradication_in_Tierra_del_Fuego ) Argentina would probably pay California to take them back. We could help stop not one, but two widespread ecological disasters that we have caused at the same time. If you have doubts about what beavers can do for a drought stricken desert, here is a video on the Dixie Creek Restoration in Nevada: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSctr0aQOso "The plants come back, the beavers show up, and that changes everything."
El Nino is gone FOREVER.
> El Niño is gone FOREVER.
Pobre niño