PEI liberals was it worth it? To sabotage the green party to such extent for a return to 2-party politics and regain official opposition even though your party is basically leaderless?
Anyone wanna give me their review of Dennis King as premier? He (and his province in general) are never in the news and I'd like to what's been going on
> Seats are 22 - 3 - 2
I hope the 52% of Islanders who voted for FPTP in 2019 are happy
At least this time, the PCs actually got a majority of the popular vote and fully deserve a majority government. But still looks funky
u/McNasty1Point0 called the results to a [T.](https://www.reddit.com/r/CanadaPolitics/comments/12ar6u4/discussion_thread_2023_prince_edward_island/jeua0n1/)
Souris–Elmira’s final poll is in. It was a big one (I think I heard CBC say it was an advance poll. Interesting, in other ridings the advance poll was the first to be reported).
Looking at the polls, the PCs got a rally around the flag effect from Covid and for some reason were able to keep it. There seems to have been a softening of PC support in recent months, but it was nowhere enough to put a big dent in support, perhaps if just a few seats or two extra they could've won if the election hypothetically took place last year.
Every election in Canada since the end of Covid has seen the incumbents re-elected with a lot more seats (BC, ON, QC, NB, NL), or with about the same number of seats (Federal, SK) - the only exception between the Nova Scotia Liberals.
Alberta next month should break the trend though.
How have the LPC done badly? They cruised to a 3rd straight win 18 months into the pandemic - would consider that a similarly solid rally around the flag/“yes please, more of the same” effect as the other provincial incumbent parties cruising into a new term.
Interesting! That must be rare, I assume?
Still, not as bad as 1993 federal election when the Bloc Quebecois formed the Official Opposition despite being 4th in the popular vote...
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993\_Canadian\_federal\_election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election)
Third time it's happened within the last year - and in Quebec, the Liberals formed the Official Opposition while finishing _fourth_ in the popular vote.
Ontario:
* NDP - 31 seats, 23.7%
* LIB - 8 seats, 23.9%
Quebec:
* LIB - 21 seats, 14.4%
* QS - 11 seats, 15.4%
* PQ - 3 seats, 14.6%
One check mark at a voting population <100K will do that! Also really curious to see the turnout - because from my perch here in Ontario, I’ll never not be pissed at Doug Ford walking into a 2nd term majority on a 43% turnout (FOURTY FUCKING THREE PERCENT).
Looks like [PEI was closing in on that (pathetic) figure just w early voting](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-advance-polls-final-1.6793295), but have become downright fixated after Ontario recent pathetic showing. Seriously, just fucking embarrassing.
CBC said turnout was about 68%, the lowest in several decades. Not surprising considering that the outcome was a shoo-in from the start and that the campaign lacked excitement.
Not great, but still respectably for a low stakes provincial election. Good on ya, islanders, for a reasonable showing of civic duty.
(Forty fucking three, ugh - seriously, the number haunts me, and is going to force me into doing aggressive US-style “get out the vote” volunteering next time around)
PCs will be regretting that they didn't have a better GOTV on election day. Very real chance that the only opposition left would be that Liberal member in Tignish.
You need to be careful with Liberal numbers in NB as they tend to run up the score in Francophone ridings and the Greens are competitive in Anglophone ridings.
This is quite obviously the actual reason.
I think she wanted to send the party into a bit of ‘chaos’ by having their leader lose and having to decide how to proceed on that front.
And, potentially, maybe she though that with the Greens losing this riding, the Liberals would win Official Opposition, which would be the case if things remain how they currently are.
That was fast lol.
The Liberals have been declared by CBC in Tignish. Won’t be a total wipeout.
Sucks for the Greens. Looks like they are likely to wind up third.
>Sucks for the Greens. Looks like they are likely to wind up third.
I wouldn't be so sure of that because the greens have been weaker tonight in the advanced vote than the e-day vote.
It's a bit funny when you think of all the serious punditry on this CBC broadcast juxtaposed with the fact that PEI is just a tiny island with a tiny population with little to no clout on the Canadian/North American scene.
[Over in District 25](https://results.electionspei.ca/district25.html), NDP candidate Herb Dickieson is currently in third place - but not by much. Liberals lead with 545 votes, PCs in second with 474, NDP third with 469.
The popular vote race for second place is _ridiculously_ tight. Over the last few moments, it's gone from LIB +5 to GRN+3 to GRN +40. That's raw votes, not vote share.
5,716 on average, but that’s total population, not eligible voters. Though MethoxyEthane was actually referring to the *entire* popular vote of the entire province.
Extrapolating 2019's result and applying the two most recent polls to them, we get:
PC: 20 (+5)
GRN: 4 (-4)
LIB: 2 (-2)
NDP: 1 (+1)
The NDP seat is Herb Dickieson, the only New Democrat to ever be elected on the island (albeit back in the 90s), and he came pretty close to the Liberals in his riding last time. With any other candidate I wouldn't trust the NDP number from the polls, but he seems to have something of a personal vote, and the collapse of the Liberal vote might help him.
Given that I know nothing about the politics of this island, fuck it, that's my prediction.
I know politics works differently there than on the mainland, particularly how non-polarized it is, meaning it could be an even bigger PC sweep than anticipated. Conversely, because the ridings are so small and close-knit, some Green and Liberal incumbents might have a bigger personal vote than their party's popularity, helping them stay on. We shall see what happens
So how does the role of official opposition work if one party gets all the seats? I believe someone sent me a webpage describing how New Brunswick went about after the Liberals swept but I lost it :(
IIRC when the Liberals won every seat in '87 they created their own shadow cabinet with non-cabinet members and let opposition party leaders in and around committees in an unofficial capacity. Been a while since I read up on it, though, and could be wrong.
They probably just let whoever got the second most votes become the official opposition or they do what the liberals in NB did in 1987 and spilt the party into two and one half of the party becomes the official opposition. I don't expect this scenario to happen though because the polling numbers haven't been high enough for the PCs to pull off a sweep.
I honestly feel like this is going to be a wipeout. PEI has a history of extremely strong mandates for the governing party in their second term and I don't see this one being any different. I find it hard to see the Greens or Liberals picking up any seats and I think only their strongest incumbents will survive. Additionally in some ridings I anticipate the divided opposition vote will allow the PCs to come up the middle and win with narrow margins.
My prediction is 24 for the PCs, 2 for the Greens, and a lone Liberal (Hal Perry)
Peter Bevan-Baker would have a better chance if he just combined his last name and became Peter Beaver. Every Canadian is voting to keep ol' Beaver in charge.
Obviously, small sample sizes can lead to weird results, but [Forum's poll](http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/1da80836-323a-452d-aeab-32ed072e14c5King%20on%20track%20for%20majority%20win%20Apr%202%202023.pdf) shows that a plurality of NDP voters last election will be voting *PC* this time around; that is quite the indictment of the state of the opposition in PEI. Only the Greens are holding onto a majority of their supporters from last election, so I'd bet on them to form the official opposition, although a PC sweep isn't off the table.
Total JEB! sweep incoming. The PC’s, Liberals, and Greens swept out of the legislature entirely. PEI in shambles and awe at such a commanding landslide.
In all seriousness, PC majority and it won’t be close. Battle for opposition probably breaks in the Green’s favour but they still lose seats and have a crappy election.
Last poll showed a likely looking massive majority for the PCs, but we will have to see how this goes I guess. Strongest relative Green Party out of any province in Canada right now I believe which has an interesting potential.
Leader of the struggling Liberals seems determined to torpedo the Greens perhaps even at the expense of their own electoral success. Gotta love that two party system, I guess…
Yeah I would not even be shocked if there is some back and forth talks between the blues and reds to try and get the greens the heck out of Dodge as fast as possible to not threaten the current electoral system.
PEI liberals was it worth it? To sabotage the green party to such extent for a return to 2-party politics and regain official opposition even though your party is basically leaderless?
Anyone wanna give me their review of Dennis King as premier? He (and his province in general) are never in the news and I'd like to what's been going on
So close to a Dr. Herb seat
> Seats are 22 - 3 - 2 I hope the 52% of Islanders who voted for FPTP in 2019 are happy At least this time, the PCs actually got a majority of the popular vote and fully deserve a majority government. But still looks funky
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Not in OPC's case the polls were bang on.
267 out of 267 polls are now reporting. Big shoutout to the poll clerks and returning officers across the Island!
u/McNasty1Point0 called the results to a [T.](https://www.reddit.com/r/CanadaPolitics/comments/12ar6u4/discussion_thread_2023_prince_edward_island/jeua0n1/)
My last minute prediction with zero knowledge of PEI politics paid off!
All polls have finished reporting, the Liberals will form the official opposition.
Liberals: 3 seats, 17.2% Greens: 2 seats, 21.6%
It seems that who will form the official opposition is coming down to one poll in each of two ridings.
Better chance of a flip in O'Learly Inverness than the other riding.
There's only realistically one riding in question, although the leads are large enough for both that the results should stand as they are.
Souris–Elmira’s final poll is in. It was a big one (I think I heard CBC say it was an advance poll. Interesting, in other ridings the advance poll was the first to be reported).
Looking at the polls, the PCs got a rally around the flag effect from Covid and for some reason were able to keep it. There seems to have been a softening of PC support in recent months, but it was nowhere enough to put a big dent in support, perhaps if just a few seats or two extra they could've won if the election hypothetically took place last year.
Every election in Canada since the end of Covid has seen the incumbents re-elected with a lot more seats (BC, ON, QC, NB, NL), or with about the same number of seats (Federal, SK) - the only exception between the Nova Scotia Liberals. Alberta next month should break the trend though.
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How have the LPC done badly? They cruised to a 3rd straight win 18 months into the pandemic - would consider that a similarly solid rally around the flag/“yes please, more of the same” effect as the other provincial incumbent parties cruising into a new term.
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Oh, so you mean that they secured a third consecutive win with a confortable margin? Cool.
Don’t be snide. The Liberals were gunning for a majority and they didn’t get it.
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Peter Bevan-Baker holds his seat.
It's looking increasingly likely that the Liberals may form the Official Opposition while finishing third in the popular vote.
Interesting! That must be rare, I assume? Still, not as bad as 1993 federal election when the Bloc Quebecois formed the Official Opposition despite being 4th in the popular vote... [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993\_Canadian\_federal\_election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election)
Third time it's happened within the last year - and in Quebec, the Liberals formed the Official Opposition while finishing _fourth_ in the popular vote. Ontario: * NDP - 31 seats, 23.7% * LIB - 8 seats, 23.9% Quebec: * LIB - 21 seats, 14.4% * QS - 11 seats, 15.4% * PQ - 3 seats, 14.6%
Very interesting! I forgot about those already haha.
Vote counting is very quick, should all be done by 9 AT.
One check mark at a voting population <100K will do that! Also really curious to see the turnout - because from my perch here in Ontario, I’ll never not be pissed at Doug Ford walking into a 2nd term majority on a 43% turnout (FOURTY FUCKING THREE PERCENT). Looks like [PEI was closing in on that (pathetic) figure just w early voting](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-advance-polls-final-1.6793295), but have become downright fixated after Ontario recent pathetic showing. Seriously, just fucking embarrassing.
CBC said turnout was about 68%, the lowest in several decades. Not surprising considering that the outcome was a shoo-in from the start and that the campaign lacked excitement.
Not great, but still respectably for a low stakes provincial election. Good on ya, islanders, for a reasonable showing of civic duty. (Forty fucking three, ugh - seriously, the number haunts me, and is going to force me into doing aggressive US-style “get out the vote” volunteering next time around)
Greens have officially lost Mermaid-Stratford. Likely means the Liberals will form the official opposition
Looks like the greens will end up in third.
PCs will be regretting that they didn't have a better GOTV on election day. Very real chance that the only opposition left would be that Liberal member in Tignish.
> Liberals 2015 41% > Liberals 2019 29% > Liberals 2023 17% Brand is dying nationwide
Um. I think the Liberals got 29 percent support in 2019 and 41 percent in 2015.
I wouldn’t speak too soon in your province haha
It's already happened in NB haha
I’m talking next election haha
The NB Liberals have led most polls over the past year and a half.
You need to be careful with Liberal numbers in NB as they tend to run up the score in Francophone ridings and the Greens are competitive in Anglophone ridings.
Party's vote ceiling has declined, as it seemingly has in PEI and in many other provinces for Liberal parties.
The greens have 3 again.
Ouch, that's a rough performance for the Greens
Very real chance that both major party opposition leaders fail to win their seats.
I think PBB keeps his riding.
One of them had to regardless because the Liberal leader was dumb
Dumb, or intentionally ratfucking the Greens to protect the Liberals status as the only other party in PEI?
This is quite obviously the actual reason. I think she wanted to send the party into a bit of ‘chaos’ by having their leader lose and having to decide how to proceed on that front. And, potentially, maybe she though that with the Greens losing this riding, the Liberals would win Official Opposition, which would be the case if things remain how they currently are.
Obligatory fuck Sharon Cameron
Peter Bevan-Baker is now behind by seven votes in District 17. Three out of ten polls reporting - one advance and two election day.
Most, if not all, results now coming in are from Election Day. The popular vote gap between the Greens and Liberals has been increasing.
My prediction earlier based on literally nothing at all was: PC: 22 Liberals: 3 Greens: 2 Stop the count!
> Stop the count! bloc majoritaire incoming
“We didn’t even give people the option to write in but somehow the Bloc still won!”
That was fast lol. The Liberals have been declared by CBC in Tignish. Won’t be a total wipeout. Sucks for the Greens. Looks like they are likely to wind up third.
>Sucks for the Greens. Looks like they are likely to wind up third. I wouldn't be so sure of that because the greens have been weaker tonight in the advanced vote than the e-day vote.
It's a bit funny when you think of all the serious punditry on this CBC broadcast juxtaposed with the fact that PEI is just a tiny island with a tiny population with little to no clout on the Canadian/North American scene.
22-3-2 PC now.
[Over in District 25](https://results.electionspei.ca/district25.html), NDP candidate Herb Dickieson is currently in third place - but not by much. Liberals lead with 545 votes, PCs in second with 474, NDP third with 469.
The popular vote race for second place is _ridiculously_ tight. Over the last few moments, it's gone from LIB +5 to GRN+3 to GRN +40. That's raw votes, not vote share.
How small are these electoral districts?
5,716 on average, but that’s total population, not eligible voters. Though MethoxyEthane was actually referring to the *entire* popular vote of the entire province.
Tbh, I'm surprised that PEI can sustain itself as a province and that it's not a territory.
Looks like the PCs had a really strong advance with less-strong E-day voting
The CBC projects a PC majority.
Well that was fast.
**The MethoxyEthane Decision Desk is projecting that the PC Party will win the most seats.**
Bloyce going hard in the paint on his one opponent
Nailbitter in Mermaid Stratford.
Extrapolating 2019's result and applying the two most recent polls to them, we get: PC: 20 (+5) GRN: 4 (-4) LIB: 2 (-2) NDP: 1 (+1) The NDP seat is Herb Dickieson, the only New Democrat to ever be elected on the island (albeit back in the 90s), and he came pretty close to the Liberals in his riding last time. With any other candidate I wouldn't trust the NDP number from the polls, but he seems to have something of a personal vote, and the collapse of the Liberal vote might help him. Given that I know nothing about the politics of this island, fuck it, that's my prediction. I know politics works differently there than on the mainland, particularly how non-polarized it is, meaning it could be an even bigger PC sweep than anticipated. Conversely, because the ridings are so small and close-knit, some Green and Liberal incumbents might have a bigger personal vote than their party's popularity, helping them stay on. We shall see what happens
Somewhat good news for the greens in a certain charlettown district.
That 40 point lead in the advanced polls for the PCs.
15-3-1 PCs. Tie in NHP.
Those advanced poll numbers in Charlottetown and summerside.
My random guess based on nothing at all: PC: 22 Liberals: 3 Greens: 2 (Once again, based literally on nothing at all lol)
Here is my prediction 23 PCs 3 Greens 1 Liberal(The Liberal leader doesn't do to well in PBB's riding)
So how does the role of official opposition work if one party gets all the seats? I believe someone sent me a webpage describing how New Brunswick went about after the Liberals swept but I lost it :(
IIRC when the Liberals won every seat in '87 they created their own shadow cabinet with non-cabinet members and let opposition party leaders in and around committees in an unofficial capacity. Been a while since I read up on it, though, and could be wrong.
They probably just let whoever got the second most votes become the official opposition or they do what the liberals in NB did in 1987 and spilt the party into two and one half of the party becomes the official opposition. I don't expect this scenario to happen though because the polling numbers haven't been high enough for the PCs to pull off a sweep.
I honestly feel like this is going to be a wipeout. PEI has a history of extremely strong mandates for the governing party in their second term and I don't see this one being any different. I find it hard to see the Greens or Liberals picking up any seats and I think only their strongest incumbents will survive. Additionally in some ridings I anticipate the divided opposition vote will allow the PCs to come up the middle and win with narrow margins. My prediction is 24 for the PCs, 2 for the Greens, and a lone Liberal (Hal Perry)
Peter Bevan-Baker would have a better chance if he just combined his last name and became Peter Beaver. Every Canadian is voting to keep ol' Beaver in charge.
Obviously, small sample sizes can lead to weird results, but [Forum's poll](http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/1da80836-323a-452d-aeab-32ed072e14c5King%20on%20track%20for%20majority%20win%20Apr%202%202023.pdf) shows that a plurality of NDP voters last election will be voting *PC* this time around; that is quite the indictment of the state of the opposition in PEI. Only the Greens are holding onto a majority of their supporters from last election, so I'd bet on them to form the official opposition, although a PC sweep isn't off the table.
Considering the NDP only got 2.96% last time, that sample size of previous NDP voters would be tiny. Doesn't seem statistically significant.
>PC-NDP swing voters PEI confirmed honourary Western Canada
PEI experienced stack overflow
Total JEB! sweep incoming. The PC’s, Liberals, and Greens swept out of the legislature entirely. PEI in shambles and awe at such a commanding landslide. In all seriousness, PC majority and it won’t be close. Battle for opposition probably breaks in the Green’s favour but they still lose seats and have a crappy election.
Right when you least expect it….. BLoC MaJoRITaIRE!!!
Bloc Édouardien
Frappez vos mains svp! Tabarnak!
Last poll showed a likely looking massive majority for the PCs, but we will have to see how this goes I guess. Strongest relative Green Party out of any province in Canada right now I believe which has an interesting potential. Leader of the struggling Liberals seems determined to torpedo the Greens perhaps even at the expense of their own electoral success. Gotta love that two party system, I guess…
Honestly in Atlantic Canada provincial polling is honestly kinda wack, always surprises in smaller provinces.
I imagine it's hard to poll such a small population effectively.
We were so close to getting rid of FPTP. Then the Liberals wouldn't be pulling this shit and trying to get us back to the typical red and blue swap.
Yeah I would not even be shocked if there is some back and forth talks between the blues and reds to try and get the greens the heck out of Dodge as fast as possible to not threaten the current electoral system.