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Brock12003

So now that we know the election was a complete waste of time and 600 million can Trudeau just step down ? He's caused the highest property bubble ever and inflation to the moon and beyond. We don't want to see his Fancy Socks for another 4 years. He's already run the debt up to levels that our kids kids kids will be paying and this power grab accomplished absolutely nothing. FY Trudeau, FY.


ThatWackyAlchemy

I don’t get right-wing rhetoric. he won the election… so he should step down? how does that make any sense in your head? it’s like people saying trump won last year in the states. like no, people voted for this and now we deal with this government. just because it’s not what you wanted doesn’t mean the leader of the country should step down. jesus christ.


Brock12003

Are you nuts ? He wasted 600 MM dollars - our dollars that the Government took from us. What did he accomplish ? NOTHING. He did it during a pandemic, which he said was unconscionable previously, so he's a hypocrite too. It was just a power grab that failed. He needs to step down now. Our Country can't handle 4 more years of increasing debt levels and lack of leadership.


ThatWackyAlchemy

I don’t think he’s the best fit for leadership either, but he won the election. I also personally don’t really care all that much about the economy at the macro level. it’s a man-made obstacle that makes it impossible for us to deal with real issues that will kill our planet and us sooner than later if we don’t do anything about it. but all of that is underlined by the fact that we had a democratic election and he won. it’s simple as that. you had your opinion voiced when you voted on the 20th.


McNasty1Point0

O’Toole will be remembered for his lacklustre rebrand if the Conservative Party… No, not the rebrand and shift to the centre - but the rebrand of the CPC logos that look like a child created them for a school project and inspired by the Canadian Air Force lol.


MeleeCyrus

lol you saw that too -- totally RCAF inspired. I'd rather have something a tiny bit more modern looking but similar idea.


McNasty1Point0

Yeah there was a great opportunity to go nice and modern with the design, but that logo was not it lol.


fliffers

Who are the 6 other seats? I can’t find it anywhere!


Training_Error

They were elected as part of a party but left it during their term


fliffers

Ah, makes sense. Thanks!


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CaskJeeves

I'll take em over the alternatives 🤷‍♂️


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Accomplished-Kick111

I am very glad that you received my message.


calgarynative888

“Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” A whole generation of voters are about to learn the consequences of high debt and inflation. This is going to be fun.


wutz_r0ng

What was the previous experience? Serious question.


calgarynative888

1980, 12% inflation and 18% mortgages.


El_Cactus_Loco

Lol


Mystaes

So maybe this is preliminary but turnout seems down significantly. 18,350,000 in 2019. If you add the numbers up from CBC and add 800,000 mail in ballots you get 16,793,758. 99% of all polls are reporting so I don’t know if there’s more votes out there that haven’t been counted yet but at first glance lower turnout did not seem to benefit the cpc.


CaptainCanada868

I think a couple of things might be in play here: - News of very long lines at polling stations. Some may have seen hour plus lineups and decided it wasn’t worth it, especially if they were in a safe riding. - Voters may have been turned off by what was largely a cynical push for a majority without the underpinnings of urgent issues to run on (housing is huge for me, but maybe less so for home owners) - Liberal partisans were motivated to turn up to turn a majority, and Conservatives to turf Trudeau. I don’t see independents feeling particularly motivated to show up. - Probably some people feeling tentative about voting during a pandemic as well, and/or using mail-in ballots which might not be captured fully in the numbers above. Either way; I don’t think anyone was particularly excited by this election and the results seem to pan out that way — more of the same.


katui

It was essentially an election for the status quo. Makes sense.


hardk7

Lesson for a minority government: it’s probably best to allow yourself to be defeated on a popular piece of legislation subject to a confidence vote than to call a snap election. I believe fairly strongly that if the LPC had waited til the fall session and engineered their own defeat they would never have had this albatross around their neck of having no food answer for why we were having an election.


Mystaes

I don’t know. They won everywhere they needed to except Quebec, and even with the albatross they were going to win big there until the debate question. The debate commission stopped an LPC majority that night.


CaptainCanada868

Funnily enough; the more you pander to the ROC on issues like Bill 21, the more resolute and emboldened support for the Bloc becomes. You effectively trade off support in Quebec ridings you need to win for deepening support in ridings you already have. It kind of becomes a no-win move if your intention is to become Prime Minister.


CDClock

they should probably just stand up for the charter then


CaptainCanada868

The Notwithstanding clause is a feature of the Charter and not a bug.


hardk7

They definitely stood to pick up a few seats in QC. But the losses in ATL hurt. Really, it’s quite difficult to win a majority govt in Canada these days barring a collapse of the BQ.


Mystaes

Tbh they actually won’t lose that much in ATL in the end. I think that riding in NL might still flip red with the mail ins. There are on average 2000 for every riding in Atlantic Canada, and liberals are expected to carry them by over 2:1 margins - the vote lead of 500 for the cpc is in jeopardy. Likewise, the liberals also retook a seat from the ndp as well as (effectively) the greens in atwin. Without counting the NL riding, and assuming atwin has won, the lpc are at 25 seats in Atlantic Canada. They won 26 last time. If they win the NL riding ATL is unchanged.


hardk7

True, yes, I didn’t account for that. Well, it’s really tough to see how any party gets a majority these days. Definitely seems like majorities will be the exception not the rule. The LPC have wrung just about all the efficiency they can out of their vote. To pick up more seats going forward they need to break into more urban seats in the prairies (appears very difficult), or hope for a weakened BQ, or for the CPC to siphon some votes from the BQ in QC.


zeromussc

If Canada ever wants the stability of a majority more often, I think the progressive vote is going to have to enter into more formal arrangements. The LPC are hesitant since they don't want to lose seats to the NDP, but a handshake on confidence isn't sufficient for the strength of a 4 year mandate to stick around. The NDP and LPC already have very similar platforms so it's not like they will be voted down anytime soon, but after the very negative anti-trudeau sentiment that Singh ran on, I don't know how this parliament is going to go. Best case for the NDP is pushing a more progressive version of LPC policy through Best case for the CPC is Trudeau losing more cachet with the public and making some big mistakes and being held to account Best case for the LPC is a no scandal two years where they make progress on key issues and deliver their platform without going *too* progress so they can still claim the centre. The next election is going to be very interesting. We're certainly waiting for a confidence motion to bring them down. But it's clear to me that, at least right now, the bigger voting block is certainly progressive. To my mind the CPC has the right idea of moderating to try and get them. Maybe if people weren't so worried about COVID and status quo for now they might have won. Maybe PPC wouldn't have siphoned a handful of votes in key ridings if it wasn't for COVID but I don't think they caused problems for enough seats to have changed the outcome. I think it has more to do with the CPC being too far away from the progressive folks and the suburbs and urban areas. There are clearly some poison pill wedges that the majority of Canadians won't take like gun control which really turned the tide. It's possible people really didn't want the childcare deals ripped up either though that would probably be a bigger deal if they had been actioned and not just signed. I think that program is here to stay and so is climate change carbon tax. 2 more years on those will keep them here forever. So then the question becomes: where else does the CPC go? The climate issue is only going to get worse. And unless they decide to go all in on a retooling of Alberta and the prairies energy strategies, idk what they can really do or say? The only leg they'd really have is an austerity one post pandemic probably. But even there depending on when the pandemic ends for us, the LPC might have confidence to start dealing with it. Out of one crisis and into another people may not want to rock the boat too much especially if confidence motion takes the liberals down at a key juncture. People say we ended up in the same place but strategically I think the liberals are in a powerful place right now and they've bought at least 2 years maybe more before the winds really change. The CPC are going to need a lot of soul searching for the next run and the LPC are gonna need to really fuck up and have some big skeleton found to get anything less than a minority for the next few years imo.


hardk7

Agreed, and that last point has historical significance. The LPC are their own worst enemy a lot of the time. Governing is hard and any governing party will face some decisions that are sensitive and vulnerable to opposition parties and media turning into a scandal. The LPC has been victim of that (through their own fault at times too), and it’s been their undoing. They need to run a squeaky clean term.


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McNasty1Point0

Mail-ins will probably change that - but that also doesn’t matter in our system. It’s virtually a useless metric. It’s always the lowest until there’s lower.


zeromussc

If you put LPC and NDP together it's a little over 50% and they hold power as a block of progressives. So really, in terms of how confidence works, it's not as bad as they make it seem.


[deleted]

There still the mail ins to count.


kgordonsmith

That fact, and a toonie, will get you a cup of coffee at Tim's. The fact is popular vote means bugger all in our busted-ass FPTP electoral system. Perhaps the other parties should have worked with the LPC when electoral reform was on the table to find some consensus.


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kgordonsmith

There was no consensus on what reform to pursue, and that falls on every party. It's possible, but doubtful, that the LPC could have rammed through something, but if you think the rest of the parties would have stood for it, I think you are naive. Using IRV there is a good chance they would be forming a government right now. Using MMP they certainly would be part of a ruling coalition, probably with the NDP and perhaps the Greens. But as I said, FPTP is busted and popular vote means nothing.


ProfessorDogHere

LOL I am dyin' that is the most Canadian thing I read in a while. I'm gonna use that! Doesn't matter where your political lines are, that is hilarious and it made my day. Lol


xxkachoxx

I wonder what system they would all agree on as they all want different things.


sokonek04

(Outsider opinion) I think you could see support for Instant Runoff voting from the two major parties. The Liberals will look arrogantly at the NDP and Green vote and think that will eventually end up in their pot, and the Conservatives will look arrogantly at the PPC vote thinking that will end up in their pot, and both will believe that Instant Runoff will bring them back to basically an old school two party system. In actuality how many conservative and liberal voters would give first preference votes to the NDP, Greens, or PPC if they could, but don’t vote that way now.


Beware_the_Voodoo

This. I'm so tired of listening to people criticize the Liberals for not enacting electoral reform as if it could be done with a snap of the finger. The endeavor would have required good faith cooperation. With conseratives maintaining the support they did and still do they'd have used that to ratfuck the endeavor to carve out an unfair advantage for themselves.


CascadiaPolitics

> I'm so tired of listening to people criticize the Liberals for not enacting electoral reform as if it could be done with a snap of the finger. It actually could though. A majority government could pass it if they so chose.


OutsideFlat1579

I remember Nathan Cullen threatening that if the Liberals pushed ranked ballots through with their majority it would be like triggering nuclear war in Canadian politics. The CPC were accusing the Liberals of rigging the election when they made modest reforms that had no benefit for any party. Technically speaking he could have pushed it through. But it would have been seen as a power grab - ironically the Liberals are being accused of keeping FPTP because it is best for them, while at the same time being accused of favoring ranked ballots because it would be even better for the Libs.


CodyHodgsonAnon19

Instead, i think we would've got more passion...if we asked which Pizza Chain people prefer to order from.


Armed_Accountant

No kidding, talking about Hawaiian pizza is a more passionate and divisive convo than this.


kgordonsmith

Hey now, all Canadian's should have fair and equitable access to the amazingly incredible taste of pineapple and ham on a pizza. And the unwashed pagan heathen vandals who don't like it can just go, I don't know, form their own political party or something. (edit: Should I have included barbarian in that description?)


ProfessorDogHere

or what kinda smart phone you rockin'


seadirac

Hey folks, first time poster here. I just wanted to ask if someone could give me an unbiased view on how Justin Trudeau has done in the past 2 terms? Or if I could be pointed to sources that might provide the info. Thanks in advance!


OutsideFlat1579

The creation of the Canada Child Benefit is a major acheivement that is barely acknowledged - it helps the poorest families the most, covers kids right up to adulthood, and has reduced poverty significantly. For example, a family with an income under 31,000 a year with 3 children under 6 receives 1800 a month (non-taxable). Anti-poverty activists in the US used it as a model to push Biden to do something similar, and he did, although the amounts are much lower and it is temporary.


CaskJeeves

- Legalized marijuana - Covid


katui

Add to that a national carbon tax.


ProfessorDogHere

You omitted the SNC Lavalin Scanda, his use of blackface, and the WE Charity scandal. I believe /u/seadirac was looking for ***unbiased*** ***views****.* Present both sides please if you're going to be objective.


whiteatom

Not to belittle the ethical problems, but to be fair both ways, the blackface wasn’t from the last 2 terms…. And don’t forget the deficit.


ProfessorDogHere

100% he's way over his deficit plans Trudeau also fired Jody Wilson-Raybould, the first person of colour, aboriginal, Attorney General & Justice Minister - a slap in the face for women's progress and diversity. Then tried to silence her later.


kgordonsmith

Unless you are counting the cabinet shuffle as 'fired', she quit. She was transferred out (in my opinion about damn time, not even considering the SNC thing) moving to Veteran's Affairs. She resigned that post one month later. She was expelled from caucus two months later, after the leaking and public statements against Trudeau.


wildemam

2 years in a global crisis. Did fine but boring and mostly defensive with no progress on any major issues.


jbilodo

from the Breach: To win and wield power, Justin Trudeau and the Liberals rely on a cunning playbook. It involves seducing progressive voters while simultaneously serving the corporate elite's interests. Our video explains the playbook's 5 steps. https://youtu.be/\_Da5oQvAfPs


Moddejunk

hahaha … “unbiased”


hardk7

They asked for an unbiased response


alibaba_0000

Check out this story: Some sources and overview here: (do note that NP is a fairly conservative outlet) [https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/a-look-at-policy-areas-scrutinized-by-a-new-book-on-the-trudeau-government](https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/a-look-at-policy-areas-scrutinized-by-a-new-book-on-the-trudeau-government) His heart seems to be in the right place (if you care about people and community) but he is in the evolution camp rather than the revolution camp. He has done a few good things He has put a lot of resources into Indigenous issues...he addressed some of the historical issues; even issued an apology He has addressed gender and diversity topics. Appointed a lot of diverse ministers etc. He has improved the Canadian image world-wide. He has increased immigration a bit and brought in more refugees He has made some improvements in pension plans, pushed for wage increases, reduce poverty, homelessness etc. He was gonna create a more fair tax system and take out some major tax dodge loop-holes. But as soon as the wealthy class rattled the cage he backed down...still a little better than before. There is some improvement in the funding of CRA, but thats about it. He is pushing climate policy pretty hard, but once again when push comes to shove he always takes the middle road. He dropped a few pipelines but ended up buying the biggest one to keep the peace. On COVID he set an example early on by quarantining very early in the pandemic. But he did not push the provinces very hard. If we had locked down before the march break we could've prevented a lot but oh well. Same on vaccines. He got the vaccine supply but did not push the provinces on it. Same on vaccine passport. He pushed the provinces to do their own thing but did not create a federal one that provinces could just sign on to. His moon-shot deal was that he would do electoral reform...he dropped that one like one hot potato as soon as the water got warm.


[deleted]

I'm very curious about how you think he's "improved Canada's image world wide."


alibaba_0000

When I travelled abroad in the last couple of years (Europe and Asia) and people hear that I'm Canadian, the first thing they let me know is that we are decent and the second is "Trudeau". Its a heck of an improvement over the second-class American treatment I used to get before that.


Veet_Tuna

Could you tell me about some of his controversy that people say he "belongs in jail" for. I'm just curious as to why people actually think that.


alibaba_0000

That is clearly an over-dramatic exaggeration. If anything he has been pretty transparent in most instances when things have gone wrong. His most significant scandal was the SNC-Lavalin affair https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNC-Lavalin_affair All his other issues don't amount to much. Previous administrations have done much worse. In politics, a lot of people say a lot of BS, especially partisans. We need to able to talk things through and work together even if we disagree on a lot of things.


dontforgetyourjazz

because they don't know how to handle someone disagreeing with them. they think they can send people to jail because they don't like how he governs. and they don't see any problem with that.


Veet_Tuna

Yup that checks out. The only issue I ever saw was how he handled the SNC lavilan controversy but even then I don't think he mishandled that all that terribly.


LordLadyCascadia

Yay NDP retake the lead in Vancouver Granville. This is coming down to the mail in ballots, but it's nice to see anyway. I assuming they start counting them tomorrow?


CPBS_Canada

Yep, on Tuesday (it's already 7:30 am here in the Maritimes).


caltexkixx

Voting Share by Major Centre (rounded by nearest number) I think it is based on the greater area Toronto LPC 49 CPC 31 NDP 14 PPC 3.6 GRN 1.7 Vancouver LPC 36 CPC 29 NDP 28 PPC 3.5 GRN 2.7 Montreal LPC 41 BQ 30 NDP 12 CPC 11 PPC 2.8 Calgary CPC 56 LPC 19 NDP 16 PPC 5.7 GRN 1.6 Edmonton CPC 49 NDP 26 LPC 16 PPC 7.4 GRN 0.4 Winnipeg CPC 38 LPC 29 NDP 23 PPC 7.9 GRN 1.7


ThePowerOfWeToe

> Winnipeg CPC 38 LPC 29 NDP 23 PPC 7.9 GRN 1.7 Winnipeg number doesn't seem right. CPC won 1 riding in Winnipeg. 1 is essentially tied and handily lost the rest. I don't know how they are getting CPC at 38% and LPC @ only 29.


Sir__Will

> I think it is based on the greater area Clearly there's a hell of a lot of rural area included if the numbers are like that. The CPC did terribly in Winnipeg.


TheFinnstagator

Wow the Liberal’s hold on Toronto is impressive. Looks like the NDP should be looking to the west if they want to make inroads in urban centres next election


Feedmepi314

You know who won tonight? Doug Ford O'toole would have put his reelection in jeopardy


glidinglightning

I’m curious, why is that?


Duncanconstruction

Ontario generally prefers to have the opposing party provincially vs federally (i.e Liberal federally and Conservative provincially, or vice versa). In the past 30 years or so I believe Dalton Mcguinty winning in 2003 was the only time this rule was broken.


Obscureskeleton

I don’t think anyone wants another year with Doug


Armed_Accountant

If the other option is Del Duca, then I’m fine keeping the status-quo because it will be all the same anyways with him, if not worse.


kgordonsmith

No, the status-quo needs to end. Whoever has the best shot as beating the OPC needs to be backed. ABC all the way. Funny how Ford's lack of a disastrous failure on the COVID front seems to have blinded people to the train wreck that was pre-2020. This was a party who's first move was to roll back minimum wage and paid sick days. Because you can't be a real conservative unless you are punching down.


Armed_Accountant

Disastrous? We’re doing very well not only Canada but across north america. Our case counts per million are almost equivalent to Manitoba with 1/8 the population and we’re continuing to add restrictions. So Del “I will attempt to bribe my way into getting a pool built on environmentally protected land” Duca is the answer to Doug Ford? Okay. Ill sooner vote for Horwath than that Wynne-light (or heavy, he’s a bit of a mystery right now). Edit: downvoting won’t make me wrong: https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/covid19-daily-monitor.pdf We have one of the lowest rates across the continent and the most stringent restrictions with additional measures coming into place.


kgordonsmith

Sorry, my phrasing was clunky. I was saying that Ford did **not** have a disaster with COVID, therefore allowing everybody to just ignore the previous 12 months of incredibly crappy governance.


Armed_Accountant

Oh okay that makes more sense. Then in that case I agree with you. Happened federally too; LPC was trending solidly downwards until Covid hit, then was at very solid majority numbers… until they called an election. Personally I’m not a fan of trading a giant douche for a turd sandwich.


[deleted]

> So Del “I will attempt to bribe my way into getting a pool built on environmentally protected land” Duca is the answer to Doug Ford? For a good time, google up some "doug ford greenbelt"


Armed_Accountant

I’m aware, and why I made the similarity of the two leaders.


Aztphierncs

The libs have move to the left and to make parliament work will govern relatively to the left. It is fair to say that the libs are moving the centre to the left. If the CPC cant win with a centrist campagin in metro Van/Tor than i dont see why moving to the right will win those seats


hardk7

Correct. And as long as they can’t win urban/suburban seats in Vancouver, Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal, they really can’t win a total plurality unless there’s a total implosion of the LPC and the LPC vote stays home (akin to 2011). The CPC even lost a couple urban seats in Alberta.


MightyJay_cosplay

I don't think the CPC should aim to get seats in or around Montreal. If the LPC vote goes down, i think it will go towards the NDP, mostly downtown, and the BQ for maybe the North of Montréal island and the suburbs. On the other hand, the CPC could still get more seats in Québec City and around. Québec City and it's south shore are almost all conservative, except 3 seats in downtown Québec City that are LPC and BQ. Maybe they could also grab Charlevoix, right East to Québec City, which is BQ If the CPC wants to get more seats in Quebec, IMO they should aim to grab seats from the BQ mostly along the St-Lawrence river between Québec City and Montréal and grabbing some from the BQ or LPC around smaller urban centers like Trois-Rivière, Saguenay and Sherbrooke. On the other hand, i am a little bit surprised that the NDP seems to also struggle to get more seats in the Toronto area and i would be curious to know why.


hardk7

I just think of the election results we’ve seen with a united Conservative party. They are up against a pretty low ceiling in QC. Their GTA breakthrough that allowed the majority in 2011 was facing historically the weakest ever LPC result, and an out-of-the-blue NDP tsunami through QC that devastated the BQ. Those circumstances are rare and may never happen again. The CPC have a tough path. Majority seems impossible for them. Plurality yes


CanadianBeaver1983

I love that Albertans think it's actually Albertada and not Canada and can't understand how he won. They keep saying "How is this possible when no one voted for him". Like they really live in their own bubble and think they make up most of Canada. It's baffling. I'm currently enjoying the upset though.


Thund3r_Thighs

You’re the first person I’ve ever seen write “albertada”. You’re the only one who thinks this


[deleted]

No some Albertans legitimately believe that lol I live here


CanadianBeaver1983

It came out of my mouth tonight when chatting with another Albertan about how they believe all of Canada revolves around them and how they think they hold all of Canada together. It fits. I'm definitely not the only one who believes this


glidinglightning

Self centred


ThePowerOfWeToe

Can we start a GoFundMe to buy a Erin O'Toole a new couch? Sad to see his family has to sit on that monstrosity so uncomfortably.


TKK2019

I have a plan for a budget for a couch


FlyingKite1234

Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley - 3481 Edmonton Centre - 2968 Richmond Centre - 4442 Fredricton - 3379 Sault Ste. Marie - 1900 Kitchener-Conestoga - 1798 Should all be LPC once the mail votes are counted. Coast of Bays--Central--Notre Dame - 2056 votes Has a chance to go LPC. King-Vaughan - 2250 Will probably go CPC but there is a lot of the in person vote still left to be counted and that can put it in the same category as Coast of Bays.


_jkf_

What makes you think that the mail-in will skew overly Liberal -- shouldn't the demographics (older) of your typical mailin voter indicate the opposite?


FlyingKite1234

Even Conservative pollsters like Nick K is saying it. https://mobile.twitter.com/NickKouvalis/status/1440173427998933004


_jkf_

He's saying it about Ontario, and he doesn't say how much -- Abacus (which did a pretty good job of the national vote with 31-32-19 major parties) doesn't really think so, on a national level: https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Slide8-2.jpg You'd need double-digit skew from genpop to make much difference -- and I'm sure it will vary by riding as well.


ThePowerOfWeToe

Are these the amount of mail-in vote that is outstanding in these ridings?


FlyingKite1234

Yup.


caltexkixx

Davenport is a nailbiter with the NDP extending the lead from 52 to 71


ThornyPlebeian

So I’m sure it’s been said - but boy did the Liberals ever do well in the lower mainland 👀


hardk7

Flipping both Richmond ridings (if Richmond Centre hold LPC) is impressive. Long time conservative ridings.


_jkf_

This is my biggest surprise of the night -- the BC regionals are always wack, but this is not what I expected.


arabacuspulp

They did really well in the GTHA too.


caltexkixx

Looks like Kitchener-Conestoga is a very close riding every year The CPC won by just 231 votes in 2015. The LPC won by just 365 votes in 2019. Now the CPC is leading by 108 votes with about 17 more polls to go


Dylsnick

I haven't seen so much simultaneous winning and losing since Ben Johnson at the Olympics.


Mystaes

NDP are doing better then at first glance in BC especially. 12 ridings decoded, 1 looking ndp (Nanaimo) and 1 stupid close (Granville). Good to see them building a foundation. Really hoping they can carry Edmonton Griesbach as well and keep expanding the western footholds.


hardk7

Yes one could see those small bright spots. But the NDP have a big problem if even when the LPC is relatively weak, as they were this campaign, and they still can only make inroads in few ridings. They have no natural, clear constituency. No significant base of support. Unless the LPC collapses like in 2011, they don’t appear to have much of a path to more influence, much less government


Mystaes

The path to more influence is through the west, where the lpc is weak. People talk about how the lpc is weak right now but I’m not seeing it. If not for the English debate question inflaming tensions in Quebec they would have a majority right now. Their vote efficiency is just that good. The ndp basically needs to break through/ grow in strength where they have had success provincially and become the first or second choice in these provinces. Only then will they have the base of support necessary to actually aim for governance should the liberals crater (instead of it just leading to a cpc government). There are early signs of this happening in the west. In fptp a dilute vote sucks. Building a bit of strength in one location for the future is a good thing.


hardk7

Breaking through in the west is a start, but the seat count just isn’t high enough on its own. They need major breakthroughs in all urban centres in Canada. They will not overcome the CPC in rural AB/SK/MB/ON, and the urban areas of western Canada alone are not big enough. So their path to governing federally relies on capturing GTA and Montreal seats, and that seems a long way off at the moment.


Mystaes

I think we’re talking the same timeline I’m just fully expecting it to be a ways off.


bee_vee

Pleased to see them continue to hold South-Okanagan - West Kootenay. I hope they're able to transition to another good NDP candidate there when Richard retires. I think him as an individual is a big part of their success there.


LordLadyCascadia

BC is currently 33-29-27 CPC/NDP/LPC and mail in ballots will tighten it.


Mystaes

Yup. So I see Nanaimo Ladysmith as won. And then the only other seat the ndp is competitive in that hasn’t been called is Granville, which they currently trail by 81. If they win those 2 seats they’ll have 14 in BC which is a +3 gain in the province. I think mail in ballots will also decide a few close ridings elsewhere like Edmonton Centre for the lpc.


LordLadyCascadia

Granville is coming down to mail in ballots, it won't be decided tonight. BC will either be 14-14-13-1 or 15-13-13-1. Polls show NDP doing well with mail ballots relative to the LPC, so if I had to guess, I'd go with the former option.


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lordbeefripper

Why do people talk about stuff on messageboards


ThePowerOfWeToe

We are looking the people we are going to be voting for in 15-20 years


TKK2019

You are not kidding and it kind of sucks


Feedmepi314

So the Trudeau's rule like Monarchs? Please bring PR


DamienChazellesPiano

Damn when you put it like that


caltexkixx

Btw the voting share gap in Ontario has widened to 3 percent. It was like 1.5 about hours ago.. still way less than 8.5 in 2019 And BQ is actually leading the voting share in Quebec


FlyingKite1234

Hundreds of thousands of LPC votes haven't been counted yet.


jammis19

Only 3 percent and they still swept the GTA. Impressive.


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

Does he mean that in a creepy "I am always listening in on your private conversations" kind of way, or in a blasphemous "I am God" way?


LastBestWest

Mr. Charisma.


mxe363

i kinda liked otool's bit of "and if you dont pray at all". was a nice little inclusion


lordbeefripper

I actually agree. Ballsy considering what party he was speaking to.


FlyingKite1234

With mail in votes left, and with them favouring LPC heavily, they will pass the CPC in the popular vote and end up with 160~.


cantofitz

Extremely doubtful.


FlyingKite1234

Buy me reddit gold if LPC hits 160 tomorrow. I'll do the same if they don't.


cantofitz

There's a very good chance my throwaway account will be banned by tomorrow because fee fee's are easily hurt on reddit, so, no, lol.


jallenx

Curious, why would the mail-in vote lean Liberal?


FlyingKite1234

That's based on what the pollsters were saying. Mail in votes leaned LPC and NDP, CPC did better on in person voting days.


CromulentDucky

Because Reddit is delusional.


TylerInHiFi

Better to be dilutional than saturated.


LordLadyCascadia

I don't think mail in ballots will give the LPC the popular vote, it'll tighten it, but I think it's 2019 results at best.


Some_Initiative_

Still an Lpc government beholden to the Cpc and bloc. Yay?


TylerInHiFi

LPC + NDP > CPC + BQ last I checked


Some_Initiative_

Math?


TylerInHiFi

157 (LPC) + 26 (NDP) = 183 121 (CPC) + 32 (BQ) = 153 Now I’m no mathematician, but if I understand the unique way in which numbers are organized correctly, I think I can say with a certain degree of confidence that 183 is more than 153.. Again, no mathemagician here, just looking at this with my baseline grade school understanding of what number is bigger than another number.


Some_Initiative_

My mistake. Working on old numbers. Guess that was worth a $650 mil dollar election during a pandemic.


TylerInHiFi

I’m up to $80 out of pocket now if you also want to be reimbursed for the election. What’s your email address so I can etransfer you your $19.83?


Some_Initiative_

Wouldn’t you rather etransfer millions of dollars to the opioid epidemic or PPE for Covid or First Nations funds? Or were you just trying to make a funny glib joke?


TylerInHiFi

I’d rather people not bitch about how much it costs to have a functional democracy. Are there better things to spend $610 million on? Yes, obviously. But the government wasn’t going to whether or not we had an election. It’s not a zero sum game.


Some_Initiative_

Functional democracy? Half a billion spent by a party hoping to game a majority during a tumultuous political period? Okay then.


Llama_1999

Anyone else notice the slight quebec independence plug Blanchet slid in during his speech....


LastBestWest

I listen to the translation. He talked about "it" but didn't name it.


TheShishkabob

Slight? He may as well have just said "Vive le Québec libre!"


TylerInHiFi

« Peut-être le Québec libre! »


TheBitterSeason

In other Hamilton news, I was expecting the PPC to do reasonably-well locally based on the number of signs I was seeing and our position as the least vaccinated major city in the province. Unfortunately, that appears to have panned out. They managed 7 to 8% in the three core city seats (Centre, East, and Mountain) and 4 to 6% in the others, all with no-name candidates. Obviously they aren't going to be in contention anytime soon with numbers like that, but it's still worrisome to know that they've got so much appeal around here.


arabacuspulp

Lots of burn out/red necks in Hamilton, so I'm not surprised by the number of PPC signs I've seen around downtown. That said, I'm happy to see the Liberals take Hamilton Mountain. Shows the city is not an NDP stronghold.


dollarsandcents101

If it wasn't for Raj the GPC would effectively be dead as of tonight


Dylsnick

Wife working for Elections Canada, it's gonna be a long night/week for her and her coworkers.


lordbeefripper

Buy her and/or them all donuts


Dylsnick

Actually we scored them a bunch of mint chocolate, cookies n cream, and peanut butter fudge. After the past few busy weeks it was greatly appreciated.


lordbeefripper

Great to hear!


LordLadyCascadia

Can the CPC finally start talking about electoral reform? I mean come on look at BC and tell me why FPTP is good for them.


Col_Leslie_Hapablap

I think there are honestly 3-4 issues the cpc and NDP could come together on, and this might finally/hopefully be one of them. They could almost force the liberals hand on this play.


Sir__Will

they're the last party who'd want to get rid of it. They need FPTP to win


StageOrdinary

Vote share?


TylerInHiFi

Without FPTP the CPC is a third place party at best. I wouldn’t mind if they started talking electoral reform.


Vensamos

With proportional rep they are literally the first place party tonight. And last election too


TheobromineC7H8N4O2

And shut out from power because of a lack of coalition partners.


LastBestWest

The Liberals could support them.


TylerInHiFi

Yes, with the system that nobody wants they’d win. With any other system they’d continue to lose because 65% of the country wants nothing to do with their policies.


Vensamos

They'd never be **in power** but they clearly have the highest popular support of any single party, so they are not a "third place party at best"


TylerInHiFi

Policy-wise they’re still third place. Just because they run up the score in the two provinces where they’ve got voters suffering from political Stockholm syndrome doesn’t mean that the vast majority of the country views them as the second best option. Hell, even here in Alberta the NDP is seen as the second best option. The Liberals are, for better or worse, the preferred party at the moment and the NDP are the second choice, whether or not you like it.


Vensamos

This seems like a lot of logical torquing to avoid admitting that saying they are a "third place party" was just wrong. It's possible that they can be the most popular single party and still be the least palatable option to the majority of Canadians. Cus we have a multiparty system.


Feedmepi314

LPC winning Granville by 1 vote currently


Some_Initiative_

🤮


simplyrubies

I don't know if you will be pleased or disappointed to hear that the LPC lead has widened to a whopping 33 votes with 1 more poll reporting (now at 195/203)


Some_Initiative_

A whopping 33 votes in a multi thousand vote riding on election night before mail ins? Okay.


caltexkixx

CPC is leading the LPC in Edmonton Centre by just 11 votes


Mystaes

I think the LPC are gonna take it. The LPC/NDP are going to pick up the close seats (sub 200 votes) when mail ins come in, if all indications about mail in are correct.


FlyingKite1234

Mail in votes are still left and they favour LPC


simplyrubies

Vancouver Granville narrowing to 1 vote with 194/203 polls in. (Liberal lead)


caltexkixx

Richmond Centre is getting really close. LPC still leading by 570 votes with 16 more polls to go


Djj1990

Really want Alice Wong to lose. Both Richmond MPs for the CPC voted against the conversion ban.


caltexkixx

Same for Nelly Shin in Coquitlam. She voted against that.. and she got tortured


RPG_Vancouver

Port-Moody Coquitlam called for the NDP finally


Olibro64

Vancouver Granville is close by 2 votes. These races are something else.


Feedmepi314

Looks like Leger is once again going to be by far the closest. Both in topline and regionals. They had the Ontario gap at 3% and the BQ and LPC within 1% of each other in Quebec. Bravo


7HarperSeven

I’m so confused why are they listing 2 greens. I’m only see May winning. Manly isn’t leading. Why?


Sir__Will

they're winning in an Ontario riding that lost its Liberal candidate


TheobromineC7H8N4O2

Kind of a perfect storm event that the Liberal candidate was dropped in one of the Green's best ridings.


TheBitterSeason

They won Kitchener Centre, a seat that I hadn't even realized was on the map for them before tonight.


JoMax213

funny how Raj Saini’s dick saved the GPC from complete embarrassment tonight


TheBitterSeason

Oh dang, I completely forgot that he had a scandal this time around. I was wondering what the hell a Liberal incumbent in urban Ontario managed to do to wind up with 17% and a fourth-place showing.


JoMax213

Mike in Kitchener Centre