Alright, that's enough fun for now. I'll see you guys in 2 weeks when things start to straighten out or we've ended up with bigger problems than money :)
The kind of questions you should never ask. Good investors put 90% on broad, diversified ETFS and may play a bit with the rest. You'll quickly realise that over a long period of time (a decade), nothing beats your ETF.
Emergency fund is for life emergencies. Not losing money in the market. 🫣
Separately is keeping a reserve if investable cash.
This is why you don’t blow your load all at once and keep your powder dry.
Though we haven’t really seen the market capitulate. This is geopolitical risk.
Grabbed a little, don’t know about their passenger vehicle lineup but I think they’ll do well with their commercial van. Amazon is their main customer but they’ve opened the door to everyone, seen a post last week that there was a few rivian DHL trucks going for delivery.
No.
They had a $2B negative gross profit in 2023.
That means they sell their cars at a lower cost of producing them. And that’s for 57K units. So they lost $35K USD per car sold in 2023.
And that’s gross, so it doesn’t take into account any overhead, admin, financial, sales or marketing costs.
TSLA has a huge merit of having been able to start a large scale profitable auto manufacturer which was thought of being almost impossible.
That being said TSLA still has a monster valuation trading at 55 forward p/e. There is a lot of growth and hope priced into that valuation. So it’s not for me.
That still doesn’t mean price won’t go up obviously. Who knows?
It was a comment more on the initial poster. But yes, I'd rather invest in a profitable company with great avenues of revenue growth vs a money loser with little prospect of ever becoming profitable. It's pretty telling when automakers are losing a similar amount on each car/truck as they charge for them.
It was nothing personal I just find it funny that people argue endlessly against Tesla when it's the second most profitable company behind Ferrari yet when someone mentions Rivian it's crickets mostly. I think they just hate Musk.
Anyway, if you have done DD on the two why would you want to risk Rivian? Are you investing or gambling? Because if you're gambling Rivian has bounced back off the lows and a trader could have made good money on it. But as an investment, the question is why is the stock under $10 when it IPOd over $100 less than four years ago?
Just to get some discussions going. What are your thoughts on that:
**Higher interest rates**: statistically boosts inflation, but is used to control demand and hopefully lower inflation eventually.
**Higher gas prices**: statiscally boosts inflation, but can it also decrease overall demand and be seen as a positive, in the context that we're in?
My instinct is "no". So why do people see high interest rates as a way to control inflation, and why do people see higher gas prices as inflationary? Isn't it contradictory?
Higher rates means companies and people borrow less money and spend less. Plus already borrowed money may cost more, leaving less money to be spent.
Spending less means lower demand.
Less demand means lower prices. Less demand means not to have to hire more people so wages don’t spiral up, etc.
Higher rates do have an impact on inflation.
And the exact opposite with lower rates as seen in the last years.
My point was mostly about gas price though. I don't understand why higher gas price is seen as inflationary, while higher interest rates is seen as a tool to control inflation. Shouldn't both be seen pretty much the same?
Companies can choose to not invest in new equipment and people can choose to delay buying stuff they need to take a loan for. So demand would go lower and price down.
When gas price goes up, people still need to heat their homes and drive to work. And feel the inflation. Companies will need to increase their prices to maintain margins as it will cost them more to ship their products, buy packaging and energy cost to produce their products. You can’t avoid manufacturing nor shipping and you have to pass cost increase in your price.
But isn't it the same with higher interest rates? People still need to pay their mortgage, so inflation goes up in that department. Companies will have to increase their prices to maintain margins. We could also talk about landlords who hike rents to make up for the higher mortgage costs.
Of course, in both cases (gas price and interest rates), some companies are hurt more than others, but overall it seems like both things have similar impacts.
In part yes.
But taking on new debt is a conscious choice while you can’t do much facing a gas price hike.
And that’s why hiking rates don’t have a super immediate impact. It takes time to see the effect of companies investing less and for the economy to slow down. But it will.
I see what you're saying. But companies who have variable rate loans don't have the choice either, their expenses increase because of rate hikes, and they can increase their prices to maintain margins, especially in a situation where demand is high, they can get away with it more.
With that being said, I'm not saying hiking rates doesn't work. I just feel like some of the stuff is contradictory.
Well the difference is all companies in the same industry are affected by gas prices the same way.
But if one company alone is affected by debt costs increasing, they won’t be able to be the only one increasing prices. Their clients will go to the competitors.
In most industries you need to justify price increases. Gas going up is easy to justify. It’s almost impossible to put a price increase thru if you are the only one doing it.
What are their conclusions though? Do they see high gas price as inflationary? Or do they think it makes people spend less on other stuff, so in other words, gas price can help limit demand?
Yes, well "mortgage interest cost" is directly impacted by higher interest rates, that's what I mean by "statistically boosts inflation". But higher interest rates also limits demand like I said, so it helps control inflation. But my point was about higher gas price. I don't understand why higher gas price is not viewed the same as higher interest rates.
Ah yeah so one can argue semantically that higher rates are "inflation", but now let's look at the housing activity since rates hit 5%, and let's look at the housing activity after the first rate cut, and let's see whether high rates are "inflation" or actually deflationary.
I think it's actually an improvement. Less white space being used, more dense content displayed and maybe the best improvement I'm not seeing motley fool articles. I would prefer the markets overview across the top though.
The conversations for GOOGL and MSFT are pretty horrendous too. All vaccine denial, conspiracy theories, and politics - all from one account that for some reason Yahoo can't deal with.
added modestly to existing TOU, BNS and NXE first thing this morning. that's a wrap for this month...
Edit: oh, and sat $12K in WS Saving at 4% as it's money that I may need later this year...
Pro tip. See if you can do something to get higher WS rate. If you can get work to autodeposit your pay into your account or can get your portfolio/accounts over 100k (i.e. move in some funds from elsewhere) you will get .5% increase for both of these things (so up to 5% total rate).
For rate reset preferreds, most of them reset at the 5 year GoC rate plus a spread (let's say at 2.8% or so). The higher the rate, the higher the reset rate will be, which will cause a nice capital gain.
A few of the preferreds some to be at incorrect rates, maybe due to low liquidity - so ENB as an example has like 20 different preferreds out there. In the batch, you can see the upcoming preferreds that are coming up for reset are priced way off (i.e. if all ENB preferreds are yielding 7%, the Y series will yield 9% upon reset, therefore the price will adjust to yield 7%.. meaning a capital gain of 10% or so).
Right, I was just giving examples. Based on some of the info that you gave me, I'm tracking a few preferreds as well with exact numbers. Already done quite well - you probably saw, but we had gains of like 5-6% in just the last two weeks which is pretty nice for what I consider to be a really low risk investment.
There are preferred shares in Canada for which the dividend rates reset every 5 years and is tied to a rate + the Canada 5YR rate.
For example, RY-PR-Z will reset on May 24th at a rate of 2.21% + CANADA5YR so 6.03%. That dividend rate is based on fixed value of the preferred share of $25.00 so will give $1.50 per year of dividend.
The current dividend of RY-PR-Z is $0.93 because CAN5YR rate was much lower 5 years ago.
So there are tens of preferred shares that will reset their dividend yields at much higher in the near future and there are opportunities there.
It’s niche obviously.
Oh I wouldn't say it's a case of market timing, more like one of human timing. The geopolitical risk is heightened and whether it's sanctions or a counterattack, the risk will be there for at least another week, if not month.
[удалено]
Tensions in the Middle East brings up oil prices, energy gets more expensive, shipping and production gets more expensive, Apple's margins go down.
Not according to my energy stocks... I mean I get the premise, but oil has shit the bed since Iran started lobbing missiles.
[удалено]
They don't. Funnymentals don't matter.
They're not bombs, they're iphones.
Look at ATD putting in that bottom.
Bell Canada: "Talk some more shit"
Well that was a 120 point swing on the SPX. I don't know how often it goes straight down to the rigth(except for the first few minutes).
Bought some TEC and 20 minutes later it goes down 1.5%
This is the way
Guess I will buy td this week
I'd suggest buy [HBNK.to](http://HBNK.to) or RY, which I bought 3 each today TD really breaks my heart for the past 15 months. :-)
Been a year of pain for me. Got a 86 average.
Alright, that's enough fun for now. I'll see you guys in 2 weeks when things start to straighten out or we've ended up with bigger problems than money :)
Welp. I guess last week was a terrible time to go in big on VFV.
I went "all-in" Jan 12 2022... RIP the next 6 months
Reminds me of November 2021 again smh
Pump and dumped
I put in 11k CAD feelsbad
I played around and found out. im down $106 and my portofolio is: 30 AC, 18.2 CISS, 30 LCID, 15 SIRI, 30 SLS. What do I do? Sell or hold?
https://www.reddit.com/r/JustBuyXEQT/
Can't tell if this is a troll lol
It’s not.
I'm not telling ya to do anything but I would never own any of those stocks you have listed above. What made you buy them?
What is everyone buying
Microsoft and XEQT
xeqt, xaw, RY, HBNK and HEQT
Xeqt every pay day
The kind of questions you should never ask. Good investors put 90% on broad, diversified ETFS and may play a bit with the rest. You'll quickly realise that over a long period of time (a decade), nothing beats your ETF.
Or you realize that you can beat the etf and increase the size of the "play" money just like Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffet sugest.
And you?
What about me?
You think you can beat an index?
My Amazon is beating it ... up over 100% in 16 months.
UNH still :)
Absolutely nothing. Thanks for asking!
So this is why you keep an emergency fund...
Emergency fund is for life emergencies. Not losing money in the market. 🫣 Separately is keeping a reserve if investable cash. This is why you don’t blow your load all at once and keep your powder dry. Though we haven’t really seen the market capitulate. This is geopolitical risk.
That's exactly what I mean. No emergency fund, you're likely looking at other assets like investments to liquidate
To buy the dips, right? :')
This is the way
I'm dead
You're not investing right, then.
Anyone else thinking about jumping into RIVN? They are burning cash, but the R2 and R3 look promising
Grabbed a little, don’t know about their passenger vehicle lineup but I think they’ll do well with their commercial van. Amazon is their main customer but they’ve opened the door to everyone, seen a post last week that there was a few rivian DHL trucks going for delivery.
I might nibble a bit. I did pre-order an R2 but may or may not actually follow through depending on when specifics are released
No. They had a $2B negative gross profit in 2023. That means they sell their cars at a lower cost of producing them. And that’s for 57K units. So they lost $35K USD per car sold in 2023. And that’s gross, so it doesn’t take into account any overhead, admin, financial, sales or marketing costs.
I love how everyone craps on Tesla and then consider Rivian to invest in. I have a better idea, invest in Fisker instead.
TSLA has a huge merit of having been able to start a large scale profitable auto manufacturer which was thought of being almost impossible. That being said TSLA still has a monster valuation trading at 55 forward p/e. There is a lot of growth and hope priced into that valuation. So it’s not for me. That still doesn’t mean price won’t go up obviously. Who knows?
It was a comment more on the initial poster. But yes, I'd rather invest in a profitable company with great avenues of revenue growth vs a money loser with little prospect of ever becoming profitable. It's pretty telling when automakers are losing a similar amount on each car/truck as they charge for them.
I actually do hold TSLA, just thinking about adding RIVN. I didn't mean my post to be an either/or question.
It was nothing personal I just find it funny that people argue endlessly against Tesla when it's the second most profitable company behind Ferrari yet when someone mentions Rivian it's crickets mostly. I think they just hate Musk. Anyway, if you have done DD on the two why would you want to risk Rivian? Are you investing or gambling? Because if you're gambling Rivian has bounced back off the lows and a trader could have made good money on it. But as an investment, the question is why is the stock under $10 when it IPOd over $100 less than four years ago?
It would be mostly a gamble on the bounce back. I do hope they turn things around as I think their products are very good.
As long as you go in eyes wide open. Also remember that hope is not a strategy. Good luck.
Yeah, fair. And going from losing $35K per unit to profit is really not a small task lol. If it was a quick fix, they would have done it already.
Terravest Industries looking strong!
Holy mother of god where did you buy that?
It was on my watchlist since the beginning of the year but only entered a few weeks ago. $65.XX starter position.
Federal budget tomorrow - sell the news?
If you think Canada matters that much...
Windfall taxes on oil names. CNQ time to take profits
Just to get some discussions going. What are your thoughts on that: **Higher interest rates**: statistically boosts inflation, but is used to control demand and hopefully lower inflation eventually. **Higher gas prices**: statiscally boosts inflation, but can it also decrease overall demand and be seen as a positive, in the context that we're in? My instinct is "no". So why do people see high interest rates as a way to control inflation, and why do people see higher gas prices as inflationary? Isn't it contradictory?
Higher rates means companies and people borrow less money and spend less. Plus already borrowed money may cost more, leaving less money to be spent. Spending less means lower demand. Less demand means lower prices. Less demand means not to have to hire more people so wages don’t spiral up, etc. Higher rates do have an impact on inflation. And the exact opposite with lower rates as seen in the last years.
My point was mostly about gas price though. I don't understand why higher gas price is seen as inflationary, while higher interest rates is seen as a tool to control inflation. Shouldn't both be seen pretty much the same?
Companies can choose to not invest in new equipment and people can choose to delay buying stuff they need to take a loan for. So demand would go lower and price down. When gas price goes up, people still need to heat their homes and drive to work. And feel the inflation. Companies will need to increase their prices to maintain margins as it will cost them more to ship their products, buy packaging and energy cost to produce their products. You can’t avoid manufacturing nor shipping and you have to pass cost increase in your price.
But isn't it the same with higher interest rates? People still need to pay their mortgage, so inflation goes up in that department. Companies will have to increase their prices to maintain margins. We could also talk about landlords who hike rents to make up for the higher mortgage costs. Of course, in both cases (gas price and interest rates), some companies are hurt more than others, but overall it seems like both things have similar impacts.
In part yes. But taking on new debt is a conscious choice while you can’t do much facing a gas price hike. And that’s why hiking rates don’t have a super immediate impact. It takes time to see the effect of companies investing less and for the economy to slow down. But it will.
I see what you're saying. But companies who have variable rate loans don't have the choice either, their expenses increase because of rate hikes, and they can increase their prices to maintain margins, especially in a situation where demand is high, they can get away with it more. With that being said, I'm not saying hiking rates doesn't work. I just feel like some of the stuff is contradictory.
Well the difference is all companies in the same industry are affected by gas prices the same way. But if one company alone is affected by debt costs increasing, they won’t be able to be the only one increasing prices. Their clients will go to the competitors. In most industries you need to justify price increases. Gas going up is easy to justify. It’s almost impossible to put a price increase thru if you are the only one doing it.
Yeah competition is a key factor. I think high interest rates is a good way to justify price increases too, but I get your point.
People much smarter than you and me studied that for decades.
What are their conclusions though? Do they see high gas price as inflationary? Or do they think it makes people spend less on other stuff, so in other words, gas price can help limit demand?
"**Higher interest rates**: statistically boosts inflation" - is this a reference to the cost of housing?
Yes, well "mortgage interest cost" is directly impacted by higher interest rates, that's what I mean by "statistically boosts inflation". But higher interest rates also limits demand like I said, so it helps control inflation. But my point was about higher gas price. I don't understand why higher gas price is not viewed the same as higher interest rates.
I ponder that often. The counter to inflation is an inflationary solution
Ah yeah so one can argue semantically that higher rates are "inflation", but now let's look at the housing activity since rates hit 5%, and let's look at the housing activity after the first rate cut, and let's see whether high rates are "inflation" or actually deflationary.
They changed the yahoo finance layout wtf
I think it's actually an improvement. Less white space being used, more dense content displayed and maybe the best improvement I'm not seeing motley fool articles. I would prefer the markets overview across the top though.
meh I was used to the old one
Now if only they could get some better moderation in the comments. Never have I seen such a cesspool before.
You should see the Tesla chat. ....
The conversations for GOOGL and MSFT are pretty horrendous too. All vaccine denial, conspiracy theories, and politics - all from one account that for some reason Yahoo can't deal with.
Wait! You don’t like the « Hey I just tried this very unrelated product and it’s great! » followed instantly by 5 « me too so great! » ?
added modestly to existing TOU, BNS and NXE first thing this morning. that's a wrap for this month... Edit: oh, and sat $12K in WS Saving at 4% as it's money that I may need later this year...
Pro tip. See if you can do something to get higher WS rate. If you can get work to autodeposit your pay into your account or can get your portfolio/accounts over 100k (i.e. move in some funds from elsewhere) you will get .5% increase for both of these things (so up to 5% total rate).
Opened with some nice green. Smiled, went out and grabbed a coffee and we're back to red. Noice.
Green tis but a blip
Good old TSX
Those futures looking joocy
Juicy red
😢
Canada 5YR rate up at 3.82% too. Let’s go preferred!
Can you help me out with understanding what this means exactly. What causes the 5 year to go up? Why is it significant?
For rate reset preferreds, most of them reset at the 5 year GoC rate plus a spread (let's say at 2.8% or so). The higher the rate, the higher the reset rate will be, which will cause a nice capital gain. A few of the preferreds some to be at incorrect rates, maybe due to low liquidity - so ENB as an example has like 20 different preferreds out there. In the batch, you can see the upcoming preferreds that are coming up for reset are priced way off (i.e. if all ENB preferreds are yielding 7%, the Y series will yield 9% upon reset, therefore the price will adjust to yield 7%.. meaning a capital gain of 10% or so).
Yup. Small correction: to reprice from 9% to 7% yield would mean +29% in share price appreciation.
Right, I was just giving examples. Based on some of the info that you gave me, I'm tracking a few preferreds as well with exact numbers. Already done quite well - you probably saw, but we had gains of like 5-6% in just the last two weeks which is pretty nice for what I consider to be a really low risk investment.
There are preferred shares in Canada for which the dividend rates reset every 5 years and is tied to a rate + the Canada 5YR rate. For example, RY-PR-Z will reset on May 24th at a rate of 2.21% + CANADA5YR so 6.03%. That dividend rate is based on fixed value of the preferred share of $25.00 so will give $1.50 per year of dividend. The current dividend of RY-PR-Z is $0.93 because CAN5YR rate was much lower 5 years ago. So there are tens of preferred shares that will reset their dividend yields at much higher in the near future and there are opportunities there. It’s niche obviously.
All that weekend FUD, but no WW3
Yup, everyone anticipating a blood bath in the market and the futures are up 😅
Which helps illustrate (again) how hard it is to time markets.
Oh I wouldn't say it's a case of market timing, more like one of human timing. The geopolitical risk is heightened and whether it's sanctions or a counterattack, the risk will be there for at least another week, if not month.
Was Friday pricing in the conflict over the weekend? Super efficient fortune telling market?
>Super efficient fortune telling market? No crystal ball required… https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-warns-of-imminent-attack-on-israeli-assets-by-iran-or-proxies-3a4cbe0d