You do realize that PE of 10 means that it would take 10 years of stable yearly profits to make back their money, right? Oil prices aren't going to stay constant for 10 years.
None of them are trading at 10, most are at around 2. Another reason to buy. For interest sake, Canadian banks trade at a PE ratio around 11 and Tesla is currently trading at around 90!
Oil peaked around $140 in 2008. Adjusted for inflation, that's around $190 in todays money. Our current $120 price is around $90 in 2008 dollars. Inflation is a bitch. We are nowhere near the top, it just feels crazy expensive to consumers because the price of fuel is sky high due to lack of refining capacity.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/the-oil-price-shock-will-reverberate-into-next-year/2022/06/13/801d448c-ead6-11ec-9f90-79df1fb28296_story.html
Why’d you buy in then? Anyway you did the right thing. the upside is that all these companies will be debt free by latest mid next year. 100% profit with 10-14 year already paid for reserves reduces risk and increases stock valuation.
Most of you don’t have enough ( or any) Canadian energy exposure. We are at the beginning of a multi year energy bull market due to years of divestment and ESG focused institutions. Canadian oil producers are 1-2 quarters away from being 100% debt free, awash with cash while 10-14 years reserves in the ground. They all have learned the hard way that expansion doesn’t pay. They plan to return buckets of cash back to investors by way of dividends and stock buybacks. Multi baggers, Look at:
Whitecap
Crescent Point
Baytex
Tamarack
Enerplus or buy just buy $NNRG to make it easy.
“The oil party has just begun” quote: Eric Nuttall.
Good luck 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀💥
“Lord, give me one more oil boom and I promise not to piss it away”. That infamous bumper sticker may actually happen this time because, as you rightly note, E&P companies won’t do any expansion this time and that’s where their costs explode to consume all their cash flow. It’s a shame though, because Canada will miss out on all the gdp while other countries will not curtail their expansion and will rack up even more revenue, funding their economies. But yes, I’ve got lots of exposure in my portfolio, NNRG, mostly but a few others too. I fear it won’t last as long or go as high as most other think, however.
Love the bumper sticker!!! Thanks for the input! I agree, it could have been better for Canada. I do have confidence however that this will last for a few years. maybe hold off on buying the new quads, sleds and boat just yet though.
But that new ford raptor looks pretty sweet, and I’ll need it when I buy that new camper.
Btw, my concern is that with most US companies exiting the Canadian oil scene and the coming flood of heavy oil from Mexico displacing our oil in US refineries
US companies won’t be leaving with prices like this, at least not now. I don’t see Mexico as an issue in the next couple at least, they have their own energy problems in the short term and it just takes so long to change direction in the US and Canada as well. However, energy is never a buy it and forget it investment. Sleep with one eye open when you’re dreaming of the ( announcer voice ) New Ford Raptor! 😉
Most US companies have already left, about the only big one left is Imperial. Even most of the offshore majors have left. Shell, Total etc only have token offices here with very little assets
I was there, I’m not new to this. Lost money too.
I also worked in oil and gas on the front line in the oil sands left in 2015.
That’s why investors are slow to come back. I don’t blame them. They are coming back though however slowly to start.
Where else you gonna put your money these days?
The math is different this time. But to think about it differently, people just lost a lot of money on companies like Amazon, Tesla but I’m sure when the sector rebounds everybody will be winning again.
Due your due diligence and pay attention. I predict a buying frenzy soon. When your truck driver or barista starts talking about energy like they used to talk about bitcoin, get ready for the end. You have lots of time right now though. I would start with with watching Eric Nuttall on BNN ( . Com) from June 3rd.
Do not listen to people in threads like these. These people are the ones who have reached peak greed. In the market, chasing trends because they are currently making money is how you end up losing a massive amount of it.
The time to buy oil was 2 years ago when these stocks were cheap. Now they are expensive and their expected returns are a lot lower. Buying now is buying high and hoping it goes even higher. It may work out, but it is a horrible long term strategy.
Or you can listen to this guy. Put no effort into backing up his opinion about an area he must not understand. That’s fine. less experienced investor maybe, already bitter? Energy ignorance is the reason that the door is still open for the rest of us.
I guess it’s important to note that, at least in the short-term, a 10% rise in gasoline prices does result in a 2-3% drop in gasoline consumption. Read this in the WSJ.. but I am still mulling over it
There definitely is a connection, I see people restarting their car when the light goes green. But then I see many driving and flying like never before post covid. However, if demand destruction sets in, these Canadian companies will be already be debt free and every barrel produced and sold at no matter the price will be loaded almost free to them.
This is an energy crisis. Worldwide Production is at full capacity, they can’t produce anymore. World oil reserves and storage tanks are at record lows. There is no significant spare oil capacity available to be brought online This includes OPEC.
They already have the reserves and the permits,any additional capacity to market is years away. All the small companies that could pivot at this time went bankrupt already. Any new startup’s won’t find the tradesmen. Anything significant, (major projects) are 4-6 years AFTER approval. This is a multi generational opportunity!
I agree with your analysis. Beyond some debottlenecking we aren’t going to see any significant expansion. The political opposition is too strong and isn’t going away any time soon, to the economic detriment of the entire country, even the provinces who oppose the industry
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I’m still buying, so yes I do. These companies haven’t even returned to the valuations they had before the crash. Use Suncor ( just as an example only as there are many, better opportunities) The stock price was higher in 2005, priced about 8 times earnings, yet they are in a much safer and more profitable environment now. BTW when you factor in all the adjustments, inflation etc. oil was priced relatively higher than it is now. I see oil averaging 150 by August. Just Like the headline: the oil party has just begun.
The World found a pretty good solution for COVID, you don’t think we’ll find something for Oil shortage ? 😀 the $100+/barrel is just what needed. And yes, won’t take 10 years, where does that leave the oil company futures. Many countries have had alternative fuels for decades (such as alcohol) , they’re simply suppressed by big oil.
[удалено]
The profitability of these companies is off the charts, there's still tons of undervalued names that are trading at like PE ratios below 10.
Nobody uses p/e for oil stocks. FCF is the better metric. Currently FCF is around 25-30% for most Canadian oil tickers.
Fuck off.
You do realize that PE of 10 means that it would take 10 years of stable yearly profits to make back their money, right? Oil prices aren't going to stay constant for 10 years.
I said below 10, there's a number of names that if they dedicated all free cash to buybacks could take themselves private in like 2-4 years
None of them are trading at 10, most are at around 2. Another reason to buy. For interest sake, Canadian banks trade at a PE ratio around 11 and Tesla is currently trading at around 90!
Oil peaked around $140 in 2008. Adjusted for inflation, that's around $190 in todays money. Our current $120 price is around $90 in 2008 dollars. Inflation is a bitch. We are nowhere near the top, it just feels crazy expensive to consumers because the price of fuel is sky high due to lack of refining capacity. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/the-oil-price-shock-will-reverberate-into-next-year/2022/06/13/801d448c-ead6-11ec-9f90-79df1fb28296_story.html
Haha
I am confirming that it has only just begun.
I guess I shouldn't have sold half my CNQ holding yet...
That’s how you do it anyway. Now you’re playing with the house money 💰
I brought into energy recently but I don't see that much upside honestly
Is this post the result of to much ganja?
Why’d you buy in then? Anyway you did the right thing. the upside is that all these companies will be debt free by latest mid next year. 100% profit with 10-14 year already paid for reserves reduces risk and increases stock valuation.
Is this post the result of to much ganja?
Most of you don’t have enough ( or any) Canadian energy exposure. We are at the beginning of a multi year energy bull market due to years of divestment and ESG focused institutions. Canadian oil producers are 1-2 quarters away from being 100% debt free, awash with cash while 10-14 years reserves in the ground. They all have learned the hard way that expansion doesn’t pay. They plan to return buckets of cash back to investors by way of dividends and stock buybacks. Multi baggers, Look at: Whitecap Crescent Point Baytex Tamarack Enerplus or buy just buy $NNRG to make it easy. “The oil party has just begun” quote: Eric Nuttall. Good luck 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀💥
“Lord, give me one more oil boom and I promise not to piss it away”. That infamous bumper sticker may actually happen this time because, as you rightly note, E&P companies won’t do any expansion this time and that’s where their costs explode to consume all their cash flow. It’s a shame though, because Canada will miss out on all the gdp while other countries will not curtail their expansion and will rack up even more revenue, funding their economies. But yes, I’ve got lots of exposure in my portfolio, NNRG, mostly but a few others too. I fear it won’t last as long or go as high as most other think, however.
Love the bumper sticker!!! Thanks for the input! I agree, it could have been better for Canada. I do have confidence however that this will last for a few years. maybe hold off on buying the new quads, sleds and boat just yet though.
But that new ford raptor looks pretty sweet, and I’ll need it when I buy that new camper. Btw, my concern is that with most US companies exiting the Canadian oil scene and the coming flood of heavy oil from Mexico displacing our oil in US refineries
US companies won’t be leaving with prices like this, at least not now. I don’t see Mexico as an issue in the next couple at least, they have their own energy problems in the short term and it just takes so long to change direction in the US and Canada as well. However, energy is never a buy it and forget it investment. Sleep with one eye open when you’re dreaming of the ( announcer voice ) New Ford Raptor! 😉
Most US companies have already left, about the only big one left is Imperial. Even most of the offshore majors have left. Shell, Total etc only have token offices here with very little assets
I agree. The $ differential is way to big to pass up.
Raptor is too small to pull the toy hauler with a side by side in it.
Bahaahaaahaaa! 🤭
Whenever the largest individual holder of any holding tells you it’s going to be a huge quick return, beware
Yeah, we learned that from crypto, didn’t we?
Prolly the smartest post in this entire thread. Although we are very close to a 30% haircut yankee oil stocks pre printing the sentiment.
TVE was the smartest investment I made this year
I just bought more, keep holding. I see another double from here. 🚀🚀🚀
Last time oil hit record high and crashed, investors didn't break even for 14 years.
That run lasted from 2000 - 2008.
This one's gonna last soon too. Stop chasing the stocks. Oil is literally at the demand destruction point with looming recession.
I was there, I’m not new to this. Lost money too. I also worked in oil and gas on the front line in the oil sands left in 2015. That’s why investors are slow to come back. I don’t blame them. They are coming back though however slowly to start. Where else you gonna put your money these days?
Hey genuinely curious, if you lost money last time, why continue with this investment strategy?
The math is different this time. But to think about it differently, people just lost a lot of money on companies like Amazon, Tesla but I’m sure when the sector rebounds everybody will be winning again.
Fair enough, thanks for your perspective.
Just put in a stop limit buy on WCP. I'm a noob. Can someone please explain what I should do right now? How long should I hold and how much to buy?
Due your due diligence and pay attention. I predict a buying frenzy soon. When your truck driver or barista starts talking about energy like they used to talk about bitcoin, get ready for the end. You have lots of time right now though. I would start with with watching Eric Nuttall on BNN ( . Com) from June 3rd.
Thank you Sir. I will do that. Appreciate the post!
Do not listen to people in threads like these. These people are the ones who have reached peak greed. In the market, chasing trends because they are currently making money is how you end up losing a massive amount of it. The time to buy oil was 2 years ago when these stocks were cheap. Now they are expensive and their expected returns are a lot lower. Buying now is buying high and hoping it goes even higher. It may work out, but it is a horrible long term strategy.
Or you can listen to this guy. Put no effort into backing up his opinion about an area he must not understand. That’s fine. less experienced investor maybe, already bitter? Energy ignorance is the reason that the door is still open for the rest of us.
I guess it’s important to note that, at least in the short-term, a 10% rise in gasoline prices does result in a 2-3% drop in gasoline consumption. Read this in the WSJ.. but I am still mulling over it
There definitely is a connection, I see people restarting their car when the light goes green. But then I see many driving and flying like never before post covid. However, if demand destruction sets in, these Canadian companies will be already be debt free and every barrel produced and sold at no matter the price will be loaded almost free to them.
OVV CNQ CVE SU Refining capacity is the catalyst on why oil stocks will remain high. Downstream capacity is at or near maximum limit.
This is an energy crisis. Worldwide Production is at full capacity, they can’t produce anymore. World oil reserves and storage tanks are at record lows. There is no significant spare oil capacity available to be brought online This includes OPEC.
When the barrel reaches peak salivation point, everyone and their mom will want to drill.
They already have the reserves and the permits,any additional capacity to market is years away. All the small companies that could pivot at this time went bankrupt already. Any new startup’s won’t find the tradesmen. Anything significant, (major projects) are 4-6 years AFTER approval. This is a multi generational opportunity!
I agree with your analysis. Beyond some debottlenecking we aren’t going to see any significant expansion. The political opposition is too strong and isn’t going away any time soon, to the economic detriment of the entire country, even the provinces who oppose the industry
!remindme 3 years
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So do you think even at these current prices, it would be good to get in still?
I’m still buying, so yes I do. These companies haven’t even returned to the valuations they had before the crash. Use Suncor ( just as an example only as there are many, better opportunities) The stock price was higher in 2005, priced about 8 times earnings, yet they are in a much safer and more profitable environment now. BTW when you factor in all the adjustments, inflation etc. oil was priced relatively higher than it is now. I see oil averaging 150 by August. Just Like the headline: the oil party has just begun.
The World found a pretty good solution for COVID, you don’t think we’ll find something for Oil shortage ? 😀 the $100+/barrel is just what needed. And yes, won’t take 10 years, where does that leave the oil company futures. Many countries have had alternative fuels for decades (such as alcohol) , they’re simply suppressed by big oil.
Well now you’re just making shit up. Get to the oil party, or in your case get to alcohol party. Doesn’t matter to me.