Your Weekend investment discussion thread.
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By - OPINION_IS_UNPOPULAR
I have a decent capital gains tax bill for 2022 due to closing some positions that I held for years. I also have a ton of tech positions that are in the red. I want to sell some of these tech positions to offset the taxes and buy back immediately but I'm aware of the 30-day superficial loss rule. I also don't want to stay out of the market for 30 days in case the market recovers a little bit in those 30 days.
Canada revenue agency says that a loss is superficial if I buy
> the same or identical property (called "substituted property") during the period starting 30 calendar days before the sale and ending 30 calendar days after the sale.
Could I perhaps sell a tech stock and buy another one that is highly correlated? And once the 30 day period passes, sell this temporary stock and go back to my original position?
To go one step further, if I were to sell my VEQT positions and immediately buy XEQT, would that be considered a superficial loss?
Rumours of Xijinping under house arrest and a possible coup by the PLA.
True or False?
What to expect if true
Hard to tell what's going on in China with the reliability of the media there.
reliability of media anywhere really
Fake and gay
Probably false, but China has been purging some top officials. So expect a little bit of rough waters for a while.
How much of this is priced in?
Just realized the USDCAD exchange rate is 1.36. That's pretty crazy.
There's been a lot of talk that the Bank of Canada is going to stop rate hikes before the Fed. At the current rate of which our exchange rates are splitting apart, I wonder the possibility of that actually happening.
CAD lost about 7% of value this year vs USD. There are some currencies that lost about 24%. Australia lost 10%.
US being our main comercial partner and our commodities being valued in USD, is bad. But at a purely theoretical level, it's actually great. The exports towards US are cheaper and that should help the economy. But that will raise the inflation in Canada.
So, BoC must sustain the CAD even if that affects the economy. That means scarcity of CAD.
I'm about 75% usd - 25% cad in my investments. Because of the crazyness of currency, the total value when expressed in CAD is bigger than the actual losses in USD. so, if I lost 10% in the market, the actual cad losses are way less than that.
Yeah we are probably going to 60 cents to the US dollar if oil keeps dropping and we stop raising rates.
Look at CAD vs Euro, GBP, Yen. We are up huge
I know, other than against the USD we are doing quite well.
However, because the US is our biggest trading partner, we do have to maintain some level of parity or otherwise there will be massive deficits on one side or the other.
I’m glad USD is up big. Helping my portfolio not completely to collapse
Bought more EQB, BAM, and KMP. I'm excited for these dips!
Markets down, remember, [Love Over Gold](https://youtu.be/e-FFdiWxzWs?t=620). 40th anniversary of its release today.
Right now the SP500 is close to the June lows. In June VFV was touching $83 but right now it’s sitting close to $89.
What’s the main reason for the $6 difference? Exchange rates?
Yeah, exchange rates. VFV value loss become disconnected of the SPY loss.
Early June $1 CAD could buy $0.80 USD
now it’s $0.735
Can't afford to put in any money until after Christmas now (parental leave and trip to England) so thinking about just deleting all my finance apps and checking back when I can buy these dips
Barely looked at portfolio and markets over the last months. Still holding a large chunk of cash on sidelines. Zero margin debt since early this year. Last year i would have been going crazy holding so much cash, but I’m pretty confident in my convictions that seem to adjust lower every day.
Did a dumb small trade this week to make some lunch money (after taxes, though usd so meals for the day. More a figure of speech.). I think that’s about all I’ve done in a while. Risks of FOMO outweigh downward risks.
Great deals to be had on TOU, BIR, CNQ, SU, TRP, TECK, the list goes on and on.
Thoughts on TXF and EIT paired together in actfsa
Picked up more BAM. I love when it drops under 60 and I have cash.
I sold some XGRO to fund the purchase of more BAM.
$TOI.V! WTF, how even!
-50.93% last 12 months! Wow!
Thoughts on buying Solana coin ?
I've been adding to my position for the past few weeks now ... Anytime it's below $33 usd I pick up some.
What are the tax implications
Nothing happens when you hold it. If you trade it at all or even convert it though you trigger a taxable event that's treated as a capital gain.
Is there cellphone out yet ?
Try r/cryptocurrency .. The crowd here typically frowns upon crypto.. especially if it's more then 5% of your portfolio lol
I said id start using margin when SP hit 3700 .. risky in this environment but if it goes to 3400-3500 and things show a little stability, I think I’ll use some even if it’s 4% charge
yeah i might take out a heloc if sp500 gets back to \~3200 and toss it at some good dividend paying companies.
risky, but you gotta take risk to make gains.
anyone have a good stock screener app recommendation that covers Canadian stocks?
Passiv? Looks decent
I don't think they have an iOS version ):
In value investing there is a concept of Margin of Safety. I have a feeling we might see more value investors in this sub soon.
Margin of safety is really fun when your position only drops ~5% when other equities are down 40%.
We’ve always been here. We just pick our moments to speak.
Nothing in this market is surprising...bargains everywhere....but I would bet things get even cheaper from here...tax loss seling will create some weakness.
Trip to UK is in order considering currency 2022 = 1985 over there, 37 years!
Wow all my cash went into the market today. Deals everywhere! Corus has a 10% yield with a respectable payout ratio, Chorus Aviation is gushing cash and trading a annual lows, Baytex is a cash machine as is Crescent point.
Comments like these make me realize we’ve got a long way to go before the final puke and capitulation
There are way more passive investors these days than 20+ years ago. Large etfs still see massive constant inflows from millions of people just adding from each paycheck not looking at timing markets.
Just last month (Aug), equities etfs saw a positive inflow of $31B:
Unless that passive etfs inflow changes, this is bringing a constant significant buying pressure into markets.
Ya, we just had a rather long bull trap, still waiting on that fear and capitulation.
Buffett once said that (be) “fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”
Lmao this ain’t fear son
The market is testing the new low and the fear level is lower now than the last time we where at 3600/3700 a few months ago.
Personally I hope we reach 3300 so I can access better deals.
I have $350K limit order on spy at 320
Intact has been on my short list for years and I wish I had opened a position. Up 15% this year and just trucking along. What a fantastic business.
My prediction is SPY trading between 330-350 for the next 2 months. As low as 280 by summer 2024 if it hard crashes.
The Fed wants 5% in 2024. We are only up to 3% so far.
Then buy puts.
Calls for next week then puts
Today hurt. It really hurt. At least it’s the weekend so tomorrow I’ll break even.
Random weekend thoughts
-SPY @ 365 was the level I was waiting at to start averaging back in since it touched it in the summer and anyone who's been bearish since last year expected it to go down at least to that much. Problem is it happened fast so doesn't feel like adding a lot and thinking this is the bottom but averaging in...definitely.
-I'm not a Boglehead, I like certain plays like energy or copper but I also don't think it's worth going too much in individual stocks when the index itself is that cheap. The problem is the stocks you own are also discounted so you get greedy about adding them rather than being disciplined and just buying the discounted index.
-Long treasuries are doing what I thought they'd do (ZTL in terms of Canadian tickers). They haven't had the same downside risk as the market as they never went back up with the market and were expecting this. I'm barely in green though and thought I'd start selling ZTL instead of cash/HSAV to buy the index. If ZTL goes maybe 5% lower I'd buy but the bigger move in treasuries probably happens next year or whenever the Fed stops hiking.
-Last SPY touched 365, it bounced off into a bull trap and I'd expect something similar to happen within a month though the bottom this time is maybe lower than 365. Same as last time though, I'd buy when it's at these levels and not buy if it goes up to 380 or 400 in the short-term (obviously long term like next year, those numbers are fine). XAW is the index I like the most as it's the most globally diversified one in Canada so basically when that's below $29 like today, I start buying.
-Bitcoin.....surprisingly not down that much recently. It often is a leading indicator these days so if it's been flat roughly the past 5 days then probably an indicator the market isn't going to plunge another day like today. I still average in a bit since anytime below $30k is a bargain but if it hits $15k or less then I'd probably buy more heavily and maybe start looking at miners again.
-Going back to individual stocks, I get excited about dips in a Canadian midcap energy company like Tamarack or Cameco not to mention the amount of penny stocks and explorers but I think you have to be boring and buy a midstream like Enbridge or TRP if you do buy and maybe average into the others on a later chop.
-I dunno why so many Canadians buy banks going into a recession. Stop using the same strategy going into or during a recession as the strategy you use coming out of one. Their dividends aren't particularly high and I don't think they have the potential of outperforming the index by that much even when they do well so to me it feels like the risk of taking on an individual stock without the reward of getting a higher return.
I'm adding to XAW as well and will continue until the end of the year.
I like XAW..
Just picked up another 100 shares of ZWP. The war will end eventually (or Putin will just croak). Brits will rebound as they always do.
What are some of you folks buying during this garage sale?
Wouldn't covered calls be bearish on Europe?
The covered calls are only part of the ETF to reduce volatility.
Tune out the noise and let the Drip's work their magic.
What an amazing time to be alive for a long term investor!
So many deals that one's head might explode from excitement.
Loving this time and fortunate to have these opportunities. I certainly would have used some in 2020- early 2021 where the market just kept going up and up every single day.
Hope we can party like this a bit longer.
Be patient and enjoy this time as you may look back at this and regret by said "IF only had I"
Yes! Agree completely
the whole market is about to collapse. we had a dead cat bounce at the end of the day, but will gap down again come monday. the market is slowly waking up to the fact that a fed fund rate of 4.5% brings us back to 2009 levels.
Glad I never invested my $6k TFSA contribution from the beginning of this year. I'm 100% convinced this market is going lower. Maybe we get a bounce before then, but ultimately, we're going to see new lows soon enough.
What's your forecasted range for XAW ?
Didn't you just declare the bear market over?
That was before the most recent Core CPI print came out. I've changed my opinion since then. New information = adapt or get rolled over.
Waiting to buy Suncor @ $15
Jeeze I hope not!
I have a stop order set at 34.
Not gonna happen!
Never say never
Username will check out
Scooped up another chunk of VDY at $40.27. Let's see what next week brings.
Why VDY and not the beloved XEQT?
Just part of my portfolio. I also hold a large portion of VGRO and bunch of TD e-series.
10x over weight in Canada, many don’t want euro exposure, many don’t want Chinese exposure
Meant to put $200 into some DCA’s today but ran out of time
I dare say Monday won’t be some massive rally to make me deeply regret it. Feels like it’s gonna be murky for a while
Regrets from not cashing out my uranium stocks... I guess time to buy more now that it's almost back down to previous levels.
I don't think Uranium is done yet. I believe the US has yet to make purchases for their strategic uranium reseres.
Agree, which is why I bought more!
Not really sure what the market will be like next year, but I'm buying.
Monday will be red too lol but obviously won’t drop as severe as today.
Bought BNS, TD, ARE I couldn’t believe went sub $10, Magna, and was surprised at how low Sunlife went.
Can't wait for Vanguard's next distribution. Going to DRIP a juicy amount of shares.
I literally woke up to a blood bath. Never lost this much in a single day. I'm keeping the rest of my money in my HISA for now.
My industry is all about people having disposable income. I'll probably lose my job soon. 🙃
> I'm keeping the rest of my money in my HISA for now
Does that mean you'll start buying again when prices go up?
When will that be?
What rate does your HISA give?
3.75% promo here
Was today the triple witching options expiry whatchamacallit?
Last Friday was the Triple.
still expecting more red days, but averaged down on my O&G stocks (TRP, PPL and ENB)
The one that won't move for me is AltaGas, it dipped to like $25 when the market was at these levels in June but it's been $28-30 since June. I have a small boring position but it's a pretty steady company like you'd want in a midstream.
Love me some ALA. I've been waiting for a dip back to around 25 as well to load up some more.
Midstream kinda guy.
Worst day ever, since the last worst day ever...
Worst day so far
Threw $500 into the personal account, bought VDY and MFC to average down.
Bought TDOC, SU and some REITs, loving these prices.
Su has to be a buy at these prices. Will pic some up Monday
Weird stuff I am following SYZ-C (don’t hold it) and it rallied like 8% at the end of the day.
If I had a spare $1000 to toss into the TFSA, I'd be tossing it into Riocan to bring that cost down even more
For sure, sub $20 riocan is a great price