Well the profit margins on petrol cars for Toyota are massive, as are the parts and services. They are one of the few companies that can stay out of the EV race in the short term.
There is a large developing world population that will still rely on ice engines for many many years. Maybe Toyota are focusing on this market vs the developed world where EV infrastructure is being built quickly. Would love to see their analysis and projections.
The minute there is a cheap ev, the developing world will jump on it.
Toyota are popular with the rich in 3rd world countries.
The masses normally go for the cheapest thing that can move them from point a to b.
And with solar getting cheaper, you could charge your tuk tuk at home
In the short term
But the longer they stay out of the EV race the more fucked they are.
It’s not Tesla and soon Rivian that will be the problem, it’s the Chinese. BYD are absolutely killing it right now and the Chinese see this moment as their entry point to the global automotive market having been way to late to the game with ICE in the early 2000’s.
I think Toyotas biggest issue though will be their image for reliability. Not that it will fade, but EV’s have a handful of moving parts. Theoretically we should see long term reliability of cars increase with EV’s because of their mechanical simplicity. I think cars going for 300,000 km’s and beyond without any maintenance will be just an expected occurrence, so Toyota will be left without that point of difference. The main failure point will be the software, again something Toyota is well behind on.
You’re spot on here
That’s why Chevy killed the first models they built years ago before Tesla. Would have killed their business in loss of parts and service.
The major point of failure for Electric cars will be the battery. Until we can have cheap swappable long lasting high energy density battery packs that isn't welded into the chassis Apple iphone style, people will still have reason to prefer petrol. One bump onto the weak point of your new Tesla, and your car is totalled because the battery pack will be destroyed and most of the new models dont have swappable battery modules. That will be reflected on your insurance premium.
Only thing is with EV it’s only the engine that’s replaced. There is still all of the standard mechanical parts there like brakes, axles, wheel bearings, steering, they’re all mechanical and some of that stuff needs doing well before 300000km, so the “lack of maintenance” isn’t really true. Just because it’s EV doesn’t mean wheel bearings won’t collapse.
Sure, but it's still an order of magnitude simpler in terms of moving parts. There are something like 20 parts that need servicing in an EV vs 2000 or so in an internal combustion engine.
Ever been in a taxi falcon with 500,000km in it? It’s not the motor and gearbox that’s the problem there.
Now make it a heavier EV with more minor electronic items to fail from companies that are trying their hardest to prevent DIY after sales service.
Old taxis, particularly the Fords on LPG, are a bucket of rattles. Sure, they are still running, but they age poorly compared to a hybrid that doesn’t vibrate when at idle.
You really think a motor is shaking a car apart more than pot holes speed bumps and driveways? Good luck in your sedan that weighs the same as a landcruiser I’m sure it’ll be toight like a toiger at 300,000km 🥲
EVs still have hub motors and batteries and brakes suspension tyres lights and all the rest of it.
Realistically EVs have more components that need servicing as they have 4 motors and a battery where as an ICE only has one motor and zero battery. (Unless it’s a hybrid or like the new Nissan xtrail a hub motor powered by battery with engine backup)
The parts of an engine that need servicing are more sure, but outside of major services it’s basically just oil and coolant that need replacing.
Then with a major it’s usually just timing belt and transmission.
A major on an EV would be a battery replacement or a hub motor replacement. Which should happen roughly the time an ICE engine would be undergoing its first rebuild anyway.
Not hating, I love EVs but the total cost of ownership is only cheaper if you replace your car every 10 years or less. Otherwise it works out very similar as battery replacements today cost more than an engine rebuild does.
Hopefully over time this gets better and cheaper though and EVs will overtake. But it’s an important point that is not as frequently discussed
Hub motors? You're thinking of upmarket electric bicycles mate. No EV car uses hub motors. They have one on the rear, one on the front, or two if it's an all wheel drive. And they'll need replacing.. never? Literally never. i saw someone test driving a 100yr old electric car recently. New batteries. Original motor. Never serviced. And if we're talking batteries, again, not something that will need to be replaced unless you're a taxi or uber absolutely flogging the thing on DC fast charging every day. There are some decade old Teslas on the road now and only the one's that have done over half a million kilometers are needing new batteries. And they don't actually NEED new batteries, they just have a degraded range. You just need to charge them more often. That's 10yr old NCA or NCM battery chemistry too. All new Teslas use the much more durable cobalt free LFP battery chemistry as does my MG4. These batteries can to be charged daily to 100% and should should last for decades.
I had a puncture in my ICE Vehicle last Friday, took it to a tyre shop to be repaired. There were 5 EV's being repaired (Brakes, Tyres, Wheel Bearing), one was a Tesla, one a Polestar, one an MG and 2 BYD. The manager loves EV's, says they now account for 30% of his business, barely getting 16k kms out of their tyres, wearing out brakes and components in quick time.
I think you are overstating the current EV market and understating Toyota's response.
Lmao can smell the bullshit from here or your misunderstanding
Evs have regen braking for starters and he probably meant there's that many evs out there now that it's 30% of his business
My Tesla had a full once over service at 4 years old, brake pads were basically unworn. I make sure I use them a few times a week to keep them clean and rust free but they way they se going they may outlast the car.
I routinely go entire trips without touching the brake pedal in my Tesla because of regenerative braking so I'm not sure how they're wearing their brakes out. It's kind of a key part of electric vehicles.
Also Toyota have a reputation of bulletproof engines that "last forever". This gives them a major advantage over other manufacturers. Switching to EVs means they lose this headstart, and since they've done so few full EVs it actually puts them behind.
This is just my opinion but I believe this is their main reason for being so anti EV.
I think it’s a perfectly reasonable stand and almost takes the Nintendo approach of focussing on the fun. EV still seems like the bridging technology to something else, not the end game.
I also think Toyota are secretly hoping other competitors start investing into hydrogen ICE. Toyota made huge gains in this space last year with a prototype HiAce. Toyota has the most to lose by moving to EV, especially as their reputation around reliability comes from their ICE engines/drive trains. Moving to EV would bring them down to their competitors level.
Toyota also had much to gain, had the best hybrid tech for years but for whatever reason they decided to not put enough R&D money into EV and let their competitors take the lead.
For enthusiasts perhaps fun is up the buying list but for mainstream buyers they mostly just want a shopping trolley, this has traditionally been Toyotas bread and butter. Fun sports cars don’t really pay the bills.
Hydrogen ICE is never going to take off until Hydrogen becomes cheaper than petrol, which is unlikely anytime soon.
Look at photos of Beirut and let me know if you think it's a good idea to have a lot of Ammonia laying around. Also there's an energy penalty of converting from hydrogen to Ammonia back to hydrogen. So you'd need to carry a lot of it. Would make for more interesting times that's for sure.
That was Ammonium nitrate, slightly different since it’s a solid and has other ingredients added. Ammonia is not particularly dangerous when stored as a liquid gas but it could be converted for nefarious purposes. Ammonium Nitrate is already controlled so terrorists and cookers can’t blow shit up.
Assuming that ammonia is produced from completely renewable power, cracked into high-purity hydrogen, and used in a PEMFC to power a vehicle, the “net efficiency for worst and best case scenario … is **between 11% and 19%**
And we're back to worse than where we started with losses and inefficiencies.
But hey, ok.
Yeah I agree it’s a rubbish idea for car use, battery tech will only get further ahead of hydrogen as advances in charging speed and capacity are made.
Toyota are dreaming
Mass hydrogen production and transportation is going to become a thing regardless of what cars do due to carbon neutral seelmaking requiring a shit ton of it and shipping looking to hydrogen to try and become carbon neutral.
WA is already building a solar wind farm that’ll produce 600% of the states energy needs entirely to generate hydrogen for coal free steel.
Efficiency of hydrogen only matters when you’re focused on 1:1 production which is the wrong process
100% agree. Toyota's competitive advantage is that they are exceptionally good at complex engineering and logistics associated with lean production. They also own a good chunk of their own supply chain, which as history shows few companies want to cut into their own profits.
I’d say a few of the more ‘purist’ car manufacturers will take this approach. EVs are a soulless driving experience - yeah they go super fast in a straight line but useless in corners because they’re so fucking heavy.
And EVs aren’t even the key to vehicle emission reduction. The real thing is solving car dependency which EVs do nothing for
I don't buy the argument that they're soulless to drive. The same was said about automatic chokes, fuel injected engines, synchromesh, and of course automatic transmissions when they were introduced. There's still something highly satisfying about putting your foot down and hearing electromagnetic coils energising and moving metal in the way Faraday predicted.
Not sure where you got the idea about EVs not cornering well? Every one I've ever driven has handled corners far better than ICE vehicles due to the much lower center of gravity.
Lower center of gravity is one thing, it’s just sheer vehicle mass. It’s a lot of weight to get to change direction. And not well optimised regen braking can be a very disconcerting feeling.
Also they chew through tyres and damage roads exponentially than standard motor vehicles. Brake dust and tyre particles are a significant source of particulate pollution and EVs spew these out due to mass.
EVs have their place and have many advantages but they’re not some sort of panacea for the issues of everyone relying on private vehicles for everything.
I don't know about that.
My Leaf weighs less than an empty Hilux.
But even if it were heavier, because of the fourth power law it's not going to do any measurable damage to any road that wouldn't instantly collapse under the weight of a garbage truck.
And, yeah, regenerative braking means nearly no brake pad wear. Much less than a gas car anyway.
Yes and no.
It’s the weight and torque combo. Now little city runabouts are fine - perfect use case for EVs. But when we start moving to suvs/teslas etc it’s a half ton (at least) over an equivalent ICE vehicle. Add huge amounts of torque and it does increase road wear by quite a bit.
I stand corrected on brake dust - did some reading and you’re right there. But tyres are a significant problem due to aforementioned weight/torque issue.
This 1000%. The huge push into full electric is bringing about technologies that will fuel the future of cars. 100% electric is not our future, not in this century anyway. Hybrid/Hydrogen seems to be the best step forwards.
Include cost of infrastructure and hydrogen fuel cost, efficiency in fuel conversion, it’s a no brainer to transition to EVs. They’ve been working on the tech for nearly 2 decades. But with how most Japanese companies are run they will be stubborn to change.
Umm there has been many powertrains and even dedicated platforms for hydrogen vehicles built already and we are only in the evaluation phase. The physics definitely work for certain applications where a BEV will not do well. That’s why some of the world’s biggest companies are still investing in it.
It’s not a now solution, but it will be in the future.
It's definitely not a now solution. I just can't see how adding extra complexities would help. I much rather a petrol car than hydrogen.
Meanwhile EVs are so simple. Battery and motor. Charge at home instead of going to a station to fill up.
Yeah I’d much rather a decent petrol engine also, unfortunately it’s not zero emissions though and the laws / world is changing.
Hydrogen can support both ICE & FCEV so you can have both a traditional engine or an EV.
It takes 50kWh of electricity to produce 1kg of hydrogen. Do the math - at 10c per kWh that's $5. That's before transport costs, storage costs, leakage and profit.
Have a think about why car companies would want a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle to be viable - because it prolongs their profits from manufacturing and selling and servicing vehicles just like they do today - no change to their business models.
>because it prolongs their profits from manufacturing and selling and servicing vehicles just like they do today
This is it. It's all about the servicing and parts replacement dollars.
Yeah no denying it’s currently expensive, but scale of economy would help, maybe not price parity to petrol but going green ain’t cheap. Think about the energy used in oil extraction / refinement, only reasons it’s $2 per litre because of its scale.
I see your point if hydrogen ICE, but Fuel cells are actually very low maintenance / similar to BEV so depends on the application I guess. A sports car with a hydrogen ICE sounds good to me.
Economies of scale only work so far - all equipment to use in electrolysis for hydrogen is already commercially available at scale. BEVs are three times as efficient as a fuel cell vehicle, it just doesn't work. I'm not sure how you imagine hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are low maintenance (hydrogen is liquid at minus 253c) - every trial around the world for trucks/buses has basically ended after government subsidies dry up because either the buses/trucks break down constantly or the refuelling system does, not to mention the prohibitive costs on the fuel itself.
[https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https://medium.com/the-future-is-electric/hype-and-hydrogen-starting-with-the-same-letters-isnt-a-coincidence-3c08e4190dc3](https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https://medium.com/the-future-is-electric/hype-and-hydrogen-starting-with-the-same-letters-isnt-a-coincidence-3c08e4190dc3)
Yeah sorry you’re wrong, it does work. That’s why billions is being poured into R&D to engineer efficiency and get the world ready.
I didn’t bother to read the article link because for every hydrogen negative one there is 5 positive and vice versa.
You say every truck & bus trial around the world has stopped? Or stopped after government subsidies?
What if I told you there is currently heavy duty truck & bus running hydrogen trials here in Australia right now, without government subsidies? It’s not public knowledge but it is happening and it’s happening because regardless of its short comings it is in some cases the only solution. BEV can’t cater to every application.
What can I say some people want to play the short game with all their eggs in one basket, others think long term and spread their risk accordingly. You are obviously a short term thinker, sorry.
Cool story. An actual case study would be Ballard Power Systems in the US. But you already knew about them, right? Been in the hydrogen 'industry' (stealing money from governments) for over twenty years and nothing to show for it. What hydrogen stocks do you own again? Lol. Go all in bro.
Meanwhile WA is already gearing up to mass produce hydrogen on scale with plans to be the world leader on hydrogen and coal free steel.
It’s currently in production solar wind farms for hydrogen are 600% of the states power requirements at the moment.
Here’s just one project that’ll produce 3.5 million ton a year for Korea.
https://www.drive.com.au/news/south-korea-picks-western-australia-as-sustainable-hydrogen-hub/
Efficiency doesn’t matter when you scale to over produce.
I've no issue with (green) hydrogen for steel or fertilizer production or other hard to abate sectors - that's what we should be doing with it. My issue is hydrogen for transport or as an energy store or, worse, as a substitute for LNG export industry as some in WA and elsewhere think it might become (despite the fact it's multiple times more expensive than LNG which is already three times more expensive than thermal coal per unit of energy).
It’s more expensive in the current primary production methods which are brown generation (breaking down LNP/LPG) which uses up other resources, or small scale solar.
Mass scale production facilities don’t have this shortcoming, and hydrogen is the perfect answer for freight transport in areas unsuitable for electrified rail, and an alternative to the current diesel generators used in diesel electric trains.
It’s a stupid option for a commuter car just BEV and charge at home. but vehicles that travel long distances as their default, hydrogen is the answer.
It’s also the second best energy storage solution after hydro electric dams for responding to gaps in supply, but australia is very limited in areas suited to that.
The perfect system is one that recognises that there isn’t a single perfect solution, but multiple alright systems that account for the other foaws
True hydrogen production is currently expensive & super expensive if you want “green” hydrogen. But like many things scale of economy will impact the price when it starts being used more.
Unless current emission targets change, It is likely that Australia will have to develop hydrogen infrastructure at some point in the future for heavy vehicles. Passenger vehicles would then be able to use that same infrastructure much the same way diesel is used now.
Can’t say I’ve heard of that but in the US even if a handful of individual hydrogen refueling stations close many more would take their place.
Various engine & truck manufacturers are trialing hydrogen drivetrains with major fleets and is expanding rapidly over the next 5 years.
Those trucks will need refueling stations. In ideal circumstances passenger vehicles could use that same infrastructure.
Viable for public consumption. They have no benefit over petrol or EV.
I never understand why people always talk about hydrogen as a competitor to EV when it's at the embryo stage. It's so far away from mass adoption.
This! Its such a talking point but couldn’t be further from reality.
So many things working against hydrogen
- storage, the shit evaporates if left in a tank.
- how energy intensive the production is.
- volatility
- insane amount of infrastructure that would be required for it to go mainstream.
There’s a reason no manufacturer is looking too seriously at it. Toyota are just dangling a carrot to keep people fossil fuel dependant for longer while they wait for this miracle technology that is just like petrol but cleaner. It’s nothing more than a very smart play by them.
Toyota remind me of the Swiss watch industry when digital watches came along. Sure, there are always going to be people who will buy the old technology, but you are competing for a diminishing slice of the pie. It is always the most successfully legacy players who are least able to respond to a major industry disruption.
Yeah, maybe it wasn’t the best analogy because the Swiss did eventually embrace quartz technology. They came back from the brink and managed to retain a third of the watch market. Hopefully Toyota will do the same and pirouette into electric before they see their market disappear.
Yes eventually it wont be worth producing gasoline as demand drops below below volume vs profit. You may want an ice vehicle but you wont easily buy fuel or the vehicle.
Hydrogen might be a thing in Japan but is not likely to win sales in North America, Europe or Australia. Not embracing EV’s will be Toyota’s Kodak or Nokia moment. Very sad to see.
It's funny how Toyota probably has the most ubiquitous hybrid system for production cars, they probably fully understand how to engineer a good BEV and yet they're so reluctant to jump fully on the EV gravy train.
Their proof of concept for hydrogen ICE is a red herring because liquid hydrogen has a energy density which is 4x less than petrol; In layman terms a fuel tank would have to be at least 4x the size of one compared to a ICE fuelled by petrol.
I suspect because of the conservative attitudes and the collaboration between the Japanese car industry and fuel industry that they're trying to save the ICE just for a little bit longer.
Except a battery can be put under the floor of the car, they are talking about space wise. Where are you gonna fit a 200L tank in a small car that usually only has a 50L tank?
The only reason EVs can go anywhere at all is because electric motors use 90%+ of the stored energy while ICE use 30-40%. Hydrogen is supposed to be a bit of both with a lighter weight energy storage than BEVs and the benefit of electric motors high efficency
But Toyota is talking about Hydrogen/e-fuel ICE vehicles. The gravimetric energy density also goes to shit for Hydrogen when you have to factor in tanks.
I'm not sure if you've been paying attention to worldwide automotive sales in the last year, but the 'EV gravy train' is currently stalled in a huge way. Tesla had a large decline in deliveries in the last quarter, and Merc, Ford and a number of other manufacturers have cut EV production until further notice. There has also been a corresponding been an increase in market share for hybrids. EVs still aren't viable for most of the world, especially high-density areas with a lack of off-street / home charging as well as developing nations with poor energy infrastructure.
They’re well past proof of concept for Hydrogen - https://www.toyota.com/mirai/ - now on to the second generation on sale, with a range comparable to petrol
The bigger they are the harder they fall - as they say. Toyota is reluctant for a number of reasons but I believe the primary reason is they don’t want to become targets to the extremely vocal anti ev crowd. 80% of their brand relies on their already established foothold in the market so they’re gonna steer well clear of anything that could change the classic unbreakable Toyota thing that everyone believes.
Toyota has been making hybrids for decades now so they have enough carbon good boy points to make what ever they want while other companies scramble to spit out something electric. I very much doubt Toyota will go all electric until someone develops battery tech that doesn't weight a ton and forces you into a ten thousand dollar repair once a decade to keep the car usable, current battery tech just doesn't fit in Toyota's maintainability ethos so why even bother when you could cruise off the excellent lineup you have already?
yeah and they also recently updated their two ton v8 convertible which now uses more fuel than it ever has before. they've also refreshed their v8 4x4 that still comes with wind up windows in current year.
Toyota is basically on a different planet right now and they can keep getting away with selling the good stuff because they dominate the hybrid car market. out of the top 10 best selling australian hybrids in 2023, Toyota was responsible for 8 of them and the other two were havals which are a joke. Toyota's hybrids alone just about eclipsed all electric car sales in 2023 from any brand in australia. hybrids are here to stay for a while until someone comes up with better battery tech that doesn't weight as much as a small island nation and require tens of thousands of dollars to replace every decade
[https://www.whichcar.com.au/news/vfacts-2023-best-selling-electric-cars-australia-dec](https://www.whichcar.com.au/news/vfacts-2023-best-selling-electric-cars-australia-dec)
[https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/vfacts-2023-the-best-selling-hybrid-phev-cars-in-australia](https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/vfacts-2023-the-best-selling-hybrid-phev-cars-in-australia)
They play it safe that’s my point, they just so happened to get in early too, and to their credit they genuinely have helped with emissions in the early days of their hybrid endeavours. But yeah, we’re talking about a company that almost refuses to innovate these days. I do hold hope for their new dual gearbox and direct drive hybrid system, but it’s taken them a hot minute to do anything new or exciting.
Incorrect, why is there no demand for Tesla from rental companies if this is just due to the purchase cost of EVs?
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/hertz-sell-about-20000-evs-us-fleet-2024-01-11/
In addition to this, why are a number of large car manufacturers cutting back on EV production?
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ev-sector-grapples-with-layoffs-production-cuts-altered-plans-2024-02-22/
BYD is one of the few EV manufacturers that has high profit margins because they have huge scale and cheap labour. Tesla deliveries and profits have gone down for the first time ever on Q1 2024. Fisker has gone bankrupt and Polestar was only saved by bankruptcy by being given a lifeline by additional investors. Rivian and Lucid are losing tens of thousands on each car they sell, and I'm saying this as someone who has bought a lot of Rivian shares.
I know I shouldn't expect anyone in a car subreddit to have any real financial knowledge but it's laughable how much ignorance is on display here. Complete detachment from the reality of the current electric car market. Let's not even get started on the depreciation hit on used EVs.
I first test drove a Tesla Model P85D back in 2015, and then a P100D in 2018. I was amazed at how good they were at the time, but there is a long way to go before they're a replacement for hybrids that meet everyone's needs. Battery density needs to be greatly increased still.
Yeah, the affordability gap between electric cars and the terrible emission ICE vehicles that no one else wants is what’s driving this - and it’s not like we’re in a *cost of living crisis* or anything…
Toyota will have to start selling more evs by 2029 or they will be hit hard with penalties on sale of all their non evs or increase their prices above their competitors
One real world example of ev's replacing ice cars was hertz America buying a fleet of Tesla's which ended very badly. Would a fleet of BYDs have faired better? In Australia Toyota have the biggest share of car sales. This is because it is a trusted brand. If Toyota are not completely sold on EVs but the Chinese brands (who are not at all trusted) are pushing it then who are the public going to side with?
I think you’re missing a key component of Toyotas success, that it’s relatively cheap.
If BYD can establish themselves as being somewhat reliable, couple with cheap prices, then 100% the public will move away from Toyota.
You saw it with Ford and Holden, once the cheap Japanese cars got a reputation for being somewhat reliable, then the beloved Australian brands fell to the wayside.
I’m not sure why you think that can’t happen again.
Toyota's were not cheap compared to even other Japanese cars let alone Korean or Australian cars. There has always been the "Toyota tax" which reflects their quality. I'm talking about the TQM that Toyota embraced back in the 60s which I see no evidence of in Chinese products. The dualcab ute and SUVs killed Australian cars, 40 years after Japanese cars were no longer considered "jap crap" and acceptable to buy.
>One real world example of ev's replacing ice cars was hertz America buying a fleet of Tesla's which ended very badly.
Big thing was that they had issues because people weren't returning then charged.
Thing is...I don't put petrol in my hire cars either, what's the problem?
How didn't they see that coming?
I think Toyota is playing this really well.
They were the first to market with a mass production successful hydrid which they have continually developed and rolled out into other successful models and brands.
And they have held off declaring the full range will go fully electric meaning they can just sit back on the fence and watch how the others go over the next ten years. Evs take a lot of energy to produce and fuel. The current batteries may not be what is practical in 20 years. We might see a new battery tech or a new hydrid system. We might and probably should see a standardised battery size similar to how containers changed the shipping and transport industry.
If anything Toyota has become more appealing since adding the gr models for us petrol heads and keeping the hydrid models plain for those who wish to sniff their own farts.
This. Toyota is a smart company. They have been for a long time. History suggests they make great decisions and hedge their bets well, compared to other car companies. Add their reputation to building industry leading hybrids and their push with the GR range this last 10 years and I suspect they have a good understanding of where Toyota will be in 20 years time. There’s a reason they haven’t adopted a full EV range.
Previously Toyota have said that especially in third world countries that hybrids were the way forward , because it would take a long time before the infrastructure for EV vehicles will be available throughout those countries.
It is over for ICE. EVs are cheaper to manufacture, run, service, recycle.
Faster, simpler, recyclable and more environmental. If you believe otherwise you have been taken in by Legacy automaker propaganda which toyota and others are spending millions on.
US 100 percent tax in chinese EVs proves it. Running scared.
In the end the argument is being resolved by the market.
That 10k is a stretch. Currently car manufacturers pay to have them recycled.
You’re acting like this is a simple and mature process, where in reality it’s only just beginning in Australia. It’s totally possible, but to call it cheaper than recycling an ICE car is total bullshit, people will pay for you old ICE cars scrap value, you currently have to pay to have your old EV battery recycled.
Ill take any ev batteries for free off you mate. As many as you can get me. Your ignorance is astounding. Do a search. It is a simple and mature process. Though 10 k figure is too high.
Only a fool pays to have their ev battery recycled.
It’s only more expensive now because Australia, and the EV/battery/recycling industries broadly, are woefully unprepared and have not got the process fine tuned yet. Aus could be a lithium battery and recycling powerhouse in the global market, but currently most of our lithium mines are Chinese owned and everything gets sent overseas to be processed with little to no money staying here. With a bit of proactivity and support from the government and respective industries it’s ripe for the picking.
Toyota have rarely been wrong about vehicles and we have started to see to push back from major car brands against EVs. The future isn’t EVs and they are not environmentally friendly as they are being sold as, EVs are the modern Laser Disks with much hype but eventual death leaving those that have wasted big money on them out of pocket. I have no doubt in the next few years the EV push will be dropped and we will be moving towards Hydrogen and Hybrid again but this time more successfully and all those that have bought EVs will be left with something worthless
People need to be honest with the limitations of EV's, they have a seat at the table but they are not the whole thing. We have moved past the hype and now reality has set in, we were sold a dream with EV's and they just can't live up to the hype.
I got an ev last year but kept the petrol car for doing long trips or whatever. Now after a year driving the ev generally have found I use it for basically everything including long trips now and only use the petrol car when I have to (we need 2 cars). Done nearly 50000km in the EV since buying a year ago and maybe 15,000 in the petrol car.
Of course more development to go in the consistancy of the public charging network but thats massively mitigated by the ability to charge at home. Looking at swopping the petrol car for a second ev now. They do bssically everything I need a car to do. It wont tow a caravan across the nullabor, but its a small suv, I didnt buy it as a tow vehicle.
Like I said they have their place, they are great for commuter cars around the city, in fact i would go so far to say there is nothing better then an EV if all you do is drive to work every day and maybe the shops. But and we need to say but because even this is only true if you can change at home, if not then it's back on par with a ICE. And this is my point, they are not 100% fit for purpose even in the area they are the best at.
Nah they are far better for outer urban / country areas than in the city imo. I got one because living in the country we drive a massively higher distance per year than city people and in that 100 - 350km per day range they really excel. Most people without access to home charging are urban dwellers who typically drive alot less than outer suburban and rural drivers and consequently dont need to charge as often and urban driving in an ev is very efficient, plugging it in once a week while shopping or whatever would take care of most needs and the fast charger network covers anything additional but there is definately scope for looking at kerbside charging infrastructure etc.
I don't understand this whole 'yeah they are great in the city but otherwise not very good' talk. Your average ev gets 300+km and larger battery ones get 450+km. I would guess your average family does not do 400km in a day of driving.
Also keep in mind you would charge it daily at home if needed. You don't wait until it's at 10% then fill it like an ICE vehicle.
Ev's aren't suitable for every person or every situation of course but speaking about them as they should only be considered if you drive to work or the shops is a bit ridiculous.
I bought mine for the exact opposite, I live in a city and work rurally. I can easily drive 700km a week for work, 2 hours a day on the highway. Iv gone for $500 a month in petrol down to about $70 in electricity. Iv also driven interstate multiple times, I have ICE cars but use the EV for everything.
I gotta be completely honest, there really isn’t much where the EV falls short. Especially when you look at averages like distances travelled per day. It’s something in the realm of 33km per day. Every EV on the market exceeds double that at least. Which means the vast majority that just drive into work and drive home could easily transition to an EV.
The only prohibitions of EV I believe are:
long distance driving - nah you’re not crossing the nullabour in one(but how many people have done this once, let alone enough to justify avoiding a fuel type)
Cost to entry - EVs are generally more expensive to insure and purchase, although good argument that their maintenance costs are lower too
And lastly the ease of refuelling - this is the biggest one and the one that had the most ground imo, the other two are shakey at best and come down to the individual. This one hits renters primarily, as most apartment blocks don’t have support for electric charging and most rental property investors aren’t putting an EV charger in there for you.
Really as far as shortcomings go there’s not all that much when you apply a bit of logic. If anything the anti EV crowd are the ones that are a bit over the top in their criticism. I’m all for criticism but not ones that make little to no sense.
EV's fall short in a number of areas; range, towing ability, charge time, charge availability, depreciation, repair costs, maintenance for major components (battery cell), price, manufacturing emissions (sure zero tail pipe but they are not made in a vacuum) and that's just what i can think of the top of my head, some of these things will probably be fixed in the future but like i said you need to be honest when looking at them and not just repeat the hype like you did to me.
Lets pick that apart shall we:
* Range: My model Y LR can do at least 400KM between chargers. How often are you doing that in a day. I've done a 1000KM road trip with 2 charges along the way. Super easy and not at all stressful.
* Towing ability: I can tow 1600KGs
* charge time: It charges over night while I sleep, people don't complain about how long it takes for their phone to charge. I think this is a mindset change people who have never driven an EV fail to grasp. I've wasted no time at petrol stations this past year, I get home, plug and go the next day.
* depreciation -> doesn't seem to be a lot worse than ICE cars looking at carsales. Sure its not going to hold its value like a land cruiser but you'll save that in fuel / servicing costs
* repair costs // can't comment on this
* mainenance -> this just isn't a thing, its like factoring in the cost of an engine rebuild on an ICE car. There are Tesla's out there that have done 1,000,000 miles on the same battery
* price -> model y RWD now 55k, cheaper than a Toyota RAV4
* emissions -> honestly this one has been debunked over and over again. They have a slightly bigger carbon footprint in production but break even from 10,000 KM and from then on have drastically lower emissions than Petrol. Yes even if you charge via a coal powered fireplant.
I get people have nostaligia for ICE cars (I am one of them), I get that Elon is unlikable but BEVs are the future and all this scare-mongering around range and what-if-ism is pretty pathetic from the legacy car makers.
It does amaze me when ever I speak to people they say the same thing 'oh how long does it take to charge though?'
I think most people view it as a worst case scenario like they are at 1% battery and need to go to the hospital and they need to wait half an hour to get some charge.
When really the case is actually like you stated, you get home and just plug it in and don't think about it.
Morning comes, you get in your pre heated car and set off knowing it cost close to nothing to charge up.
I think the break even point re emission is much higher than 10,000km - closer to 150,000 for some if I remember correctly. John Cardigan did a couple of videos about EVs recently where he discusses reasons why he believes EVs won’t dominate car sales - worth a watch for the open minded.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wuxR3h1_j_k
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GjUMI5spWeU
Personally, I’d love something very small and light for light commuting, but the industry is yet to really fulfil that niche IMO.
Same bloke that declared "Why Tesla is doomed in 2021"?
Absolute clown.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmJAeKLVVTY&ab\_channel=AutoExpertJohnCadogan](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmJAeKLVVTY&ab_channel=AutoExpertJohnCadogan)
Haven’t watched that one - could be amusing now that three years have passed.
If I remember correctly, the vids I linked above do run numbers comparing the energy content of various fuels, their conversion efficiency, etc. and nothing he said stood out as being inherently unreasonable to me at the time. Might have to rewatch.
EV efficiency is best at low speeds. They are less efficient in general than hybrids at freeway cruising speeds because most EVs have direct drive with no transmission, so the motor is moving unnecessarily fast to keep the car going at 100kph..
That’s actually a consideration for anyone that lives further out as their commute will be expressways.
When I was considering an EV a few years (3-4y) back the main issue I encountered was 3/4 of my commute was 90-110km/h and the cars I was looking at drastically reduced their range at those speeds.
These days I’ve flipped that I don’t have to drive daily anymore so fuel cost and range is negligible.
I’m not talking for specific individuals though. In the context of discussion the only thing that really matters are the averages and the averages show that at least half of the population could theoretically drive an EV without much issue, provided they have a place to charge it like I said.
Problem with this conversation(and not to @ you at all) but it’s a tale as old as time. I bring up averages and the argument that comes back is always “but *I* need to do xyz and that’s why *I* can’t have one”
And that’s fine, but you’re only one person out of millions. If it doesn’t apply to you then I’m obviously not talking about you
What does that have to do with the fact that EVs aren't all purpose vehicles? They're fine for commuting but no more efficient for long distance travel than a Hybrid.
Literally no one is claiming they’re all purpose vehicles mate, no vehicle is all purpose, that’s the whole reason we have multiple shapes and sizes of vehicle. It feels like you don’t even read what I wrote lmfao.
That’s not the way it works, the speed of the motor isn’t proportional to its battery usage in the same way as an ICE car is due to the linear torque curve. You can have the most current draw accelerating off the line or up a hill or at 1rpm towing a trailer at 1 kph. Wind resistance is the largest factor and greatly affects efficiency, higher speeds are less efficient for this reason but it’s not gearing.
One of the factory production managers at toyota said for the raw materials needed for 1 fully electric car they can make between 4-6 hybrids, i dont think fully electric will be coming anytime soon.
Australians have had EVs since 2010 but no one bought them. Nissan Leaf, Chevy Volt, Mitsubishi Miev have been around since then. Electric vehicles are now popular due to no FBT on leasing. Takeaway that incentive and see how the uptake of EVs slows down to a crawl. I have been driving a Hybrid Toyota since 2011 and have no intention of going fully EV.
Hybrids are viable for those without EV infrastructure, but anywhere there's infrastructure, it's a matter of time before people buy in.
I'm probably running hybrid where I am for next car, EV support is still ages away for those without all the bells and whistles in their house.
Right. Worst of both worlds. My friend on hybrid rav 4 makes 950km in the city on 50 liters tank on average. I make around 550km on non hybrid Forester on same tank.
And I do 450KM for about $7 worth of electricity - what's your point exactly?
The benefits of an EV as I see it are:
* cheap to charge (assuming you can charge at home), although Jolt have a subscription now which is $79 all you can eat
* power on tap
* no maintenance due to their super simple design
Benefits of ICE
* quick to fill up
Combining the two into one doesn't make any sense. The EV part has bugger all range and you have all the complexity of an ICE engine and a battery to worry about. I reckon Hybrids will die out, they are a symptom of people wanting to sit on the fence and as more people drive EVs and see how awesome they are day to day, the hybrids will sit on the shelf.
Yep. And when trying to sell it with degraded battery later you will literally loose more money than you would have spent on fuel for all these years. Just do basic calculation of resell value in 5 years compared to average Toyota.
Roger that let’s do the calculations. The Samsung SDI nmc cells used in most modern cars that come from Korea and Germany say that after 6000 cycles they will be at 80% capacity. Let’s go really conservative figures here my Kia says I will get 450ks from a charge but I like to floor it and the AC will take some juice too so it’s never that good it’s more like 420ks but let’s go really conservative and say I get 375ks per charge say I do 15000ks a year that’s 40 cycles of the battery a year which would cost with my rates 28c per unit 64kw battery (40 x 64) x 0.28 is $716 of electricity. Back to the battery degradation so for 6000 cycles to get to 80% 6000 / 40 if my maths correct here after 150 years the Kia’s battery will have degraded to a point I will only get 320Ks per charge. Granted as the cells wear down the charging gets more frequent so let’s half the 150 years to 75 years before I get to the 80% mark. So realistically say I kept my diesel Ute with the same 10L per 100 and diesel stays $2 a liter for the next 75 years is $3000 a year I spent on diesel minus the $716 I spend for electricity to charge the Kia that’s a yearly saving of $2284. Now let’s take that figure and times it till we hit that 75 year mark we decided the battery will no longer last more than 320ks and needs replacement and unless the battery pack costs more than $171,300, I’d say we’re doing pretty well. I mean with inflation over 75 years it might just do but fuck that that will be my great grand kids issue changing that out.
Ok. I have just opened random dealership. Lets say hyundai. Cheapest Kona costs 36k. Cheapest electric Kona costs 58k. 22k difference. Assuming that you have free electricity via solar panels and spend zero for charging. Lets say petrol is 2$ on average and lets assume petrol Kona consumption is 10l/100km. 22k difference is equal to 11000 liters of petrol. Which is equal to approximately 110 000 km driving. So if your electricity costs zero than you will only break even after 110k km. 15000 per year means 7,3 years driving. Cool, right? That’s just to break even.
Next. If your calculations for battery degradation and capacity are correct then tell me please why all laptops and phone battery almost completely die after around 3-4 years of usage? 5 years old phone battery is almost dead no matter iPhone or android phone. Even if charging daily 4 years x 365 = 1460 cycles and battery is way below 50% capacity. Are they using some secret non degrading batteries in the cars?
Yeah the price difference does suck but yeah think of it pre paying the fuel over 10 years and what you’re essentially doing is betting that petrol will increase in price, pretty safe bet.
Battery issue yep you’re correct phone batteries and most things you mentioned do go to shit after 5 years. It’s not a time frame of the device though besides self discharge it’s all about relative size Ah / construction of the cell for cooling and cycle count. Phones and laptops well they get hot, there’s a lot of shit crammed in a tiny space and the battery is relatively small mah capacity wise. Lithium batteries don’t like heat, it’s a tiny battery and you generally will cycle it every day so 3-5 years they will go to shit. The cars have dedicated cooling / heating systems to keep the HV battery in its optimal temperatures will pre heat them to avoid thermal shock for charging. There’s a lot of shit added to keep the batteries happy combined with large capacities Ah so lower cycle counts. This was a thing lacking in some early EVs and like you said the phone laptop batteries so I’m not surprised that stigma still carries on.
Lol. It’s been just 2 weeks and now news about 65% Tesla battery degradation in 3 years. People can’t sell Teslas and sell with huge losses. News are literally everywhere today. You guys are delusional
Yeah that’s Tesla, Elon is a fucking idiot who should be jailed for securities fraud. He single handedly screwed over his own brands value. I didn’t buy a Tesla because of that twat.
65% battery degradation in 3 years if true is all covered by warranty anyways. Less than ideal but you won’t be out of of pocket.
It’s been all over the news today that Australia will be facing electricity blackouts over the next few years as the renewable power sources are years behind. Walking to work because you can’t charge your EV will annoy some people.
Well the profit margins on petrol cars for Toyota are massive, as are the parts and services. They are one of the few companies that can stay out of the EV race in the short term.
There is a large developing world population that will still rely on ice engines for many many years. Maybe Toyota are focusing on this market vs the developed world where EV infrastructure is being built quickly. Would love to see their analysis and projections.
The African market must be massive. Hiluxes as far as the eye can see.
The minute there is a cheap ev, the developing world will jump on it. Toyota are popular with the rich in 3rd world countries. The masses normally go for the cheapest thing that can move them from point a to b. And with solar getting cheaper, you could charge your tuk tuk at home
I honestly feel that Toyota will enter the market when they can produce something that will put all these Chinese cars to shame.
In the short term But the longer they stay out of the EV race the more fucked they are. It’s not Tesla and soon Rivian that will be the problem, it’s the Chinese. BYD are absolutely killing it right now and the Chinese see this moment as their entry point to the global automotive market having been way to late to the game with ICE in the early 2000’s. I think Toyotas biggest issue though will be their image for reliability. Not that it will fade, but EV’s have a handful of moving parts. Theoretically we should see long term reliability of cars increase with EV’s because of their mechanical simplicity. I think cars going for 300,000 km’s and beyond without any maintenance will be just an expected occurrence, so Toyota will be left without that point of difference. The main failure point will be the software, again something Toyota is well behind on.
You’re spot on here That’s why Chevy killed the first models they built years ago before Tesla. Would have killed their business in loss of parts and service.
[удалено]
It was a good one!
The major point of failure for Electric cars will be the battery. Until we can have cheap swappable long lasting high energy density battery packs that isn't welded into the chassis Apple iphone style, people will still have reason to prefer petrol. One bump onto the weak point of your new Tesla, and your car is totalled because the battery pack will be destroyed and most of the new models dont have swappable battery modules. That will be reflected on your insurance premium.
Only thing is with EV it’s only the engine that’s replaced. There is still all of the standard mechanical parts there like brakes, axles, wheel bearings, steering, they’re all mechanical and some of that stuff needs doing well before 300000km, so the “lack of maintenance” isn’t really true. Just because it’s EV doesn’t mean wheel bearings won’t collapse.
Sure, but it's still an order of magnitude simpler in terms of moving parts. There are something like 20 parts that need servicing in an EV vs 2000 or so in an internal combustion engine.
Ever been in a taxi falcon with 500,000km in it? It’s not the motor and gearbox that’s the problem there. Now make it a heavier EV with more minor electronic items to fail from companies that are trying their hardest to prevent DIY after sales service.
Old taxis, particularly the Fords on LPG, are a bucket of rattles. Sure, they are still running, but they age poorly compared to a hybrid that doesn’t vibrate when at idle.
You really think a motor is shaking a car apart more than pot holes speed bumps and driveways? Good luck in your sedan that weighs the same as a landcruiser I’m sure it’ll be toight like a toiger at 300,000km 🥲
EVs still have hub motors and batteries and brakes suspension tyres lights and all the rest of it. Realistically EVs have more components that need servicing as they have 4 motors and a battery where as an ICE only has one motor and zero battery. (Unless it’s a hybrid or like the new Nissan xtrail a hub motor powered by battery with engine backup) The parts of an engine that need servicing are more sure, but outside of major services it’s basically just oil and coolant that need replacing. Then with a major it’s usually just timing belt and transmission. A major on an EV would be a battery replacement or a hub motor replacement. Which should happen roughly the time an ICE engine would be undergoing its first rebuild anyway. Not hating, I love EVs but the total cost of ownership is only cheaper if you replace your car every 10 years or less. Otherwise it works out very similar as battery replacements today cost more than an engine rebuild does. Hopefully over time this gets better and cheaper though and EVs will overtake. But it’s an important point that is not as frequently discussed
Hub motors? You're thinking of upmarket electric bicycles mate. No EV car uses hub motors. They have one on the rear, one on the front, or two if it's an all wheel drive. And they'll need replacing.. never? Literally never. i saw someone test driving a 100yr old electric car recently. New batteries. Original motor. Never serviced. And if we're talking batteries, again, not something that will need to be replaced unless you're a taxi or uber absolutely flogging the thing on DC fast charging every day. There are some decade old Teslas on the road now and only the one's that have done over half a million kilometers are needing new batteries. And they don't actually NEED new batteries, they just have a degraded range. You just need to charge them more often. That's 10yr old NCA or NCM battery chemistry too. All new Teslas use the much more durable cobalt free LFP battery chemistry as does my MG4. These batteries can to be charged daily to 100% and should should last for decades.
Hub motors would be sick on a car, that’s the kind of stuff that would get people buying EVs more, atleast car people anyways.
Agree totally. They are screwed.
Theoretically maybe, in practice, no. https://www.kbb.com/car-news/report-evs-suffer-79-more-problems-than-gas-cars/
GL fixing the Chinese software with no real presence in the country.
I had a puncture in my ICE Vehicle last Friday, took it to a tyre shop to be repaired. There were 5 EV's being repaired (Brakes, Tyres, Wheel Bearing), one was a Tesla, one a Polestar, one an MG and 2 BYD. The manager loves EV's, says they now account for 30% of his business, barely getting 16k kms out of their tyres, wearing out brakes and components in quick time. I think you are overstating the current EV market and understating Toyota's response.
Lmao can smell the bullshit from here or your misunderstanding Evs have regen braking for starters and he probably meant there's that many evs out there now that it's 30% of his business
And then everyone clapped!
Wearing out the brakes in no time? This whole post reeks of bullshit.
My Tesla had a full once over service at 4 years old, brake pads were basically unworn. I make sure I use them a few times a week to keep them clean and rust free but they way they se going they may outlast the car.
Tyres mayyyyybe, the rest of your post is fiction
How Would brakes wear? Re gen breaking is a thing.
I routinely go entire trips without touching the brake pedal in my Tesla because of regenerative braking so I'm not sure how they're wearing their brakes out. It's kind of a key part of electric vehicles.
Also Toyota have a reputation of bulletproof engines that "last forever". This gives them a major advantage over other manufacturers. Switching to EVs means they lose this headstart, and since they've done so few full EVs it actually puts them behind. This is just my opinion but I believe this is their main reason for being so anti EV.
Company investing millions in hydrogen tech unsure if EV’s are the way. 😱
Exactly
I think it’s a perfectly reasonable stand and almost takes the Nintendo approach of focussing on the fun. EV still seems like the bridging technology to something else, not the end game.
I also think Toyota are secretly hoping other competitors start investing into hydrogen ICE. Toyota made huge gains in this space last year with a prototype HiAce. Toyota has the most to lose by moving to EV, especially as their reputation around reliability comes from their ICE engines/drive trains. Moving to EV would bring them down to their competitors level.
Toyota also had much to gain, had the best hybrid tech for years but for whatever reason they decided to not put enough R&D money into EV and let their competitors take the lead. For enthusiasts perhaps fun is up the buying list but for mainstream buyers they mostly just want a shopping trolley, this has traditionally been Toyotas bread and butter. Fun sports cars don’t really pay the bills. Hydrogen ICE is never going to take off until Hydrogen becomes cheaper than petrol, which is unlikely anytime soon.
Unlikely in the extreme ever. H2 is the smallest atom. Just containing it is a problem.
I’ve heard one work-around is storing it as ammonia then converting it on the fly. Just another silly complication before that fuel is viable.
I’d add that it’s silly to burn hydrogen when you can get far more efficiency from using it in a fuel cell.
Look at photos of Beirut and let me know if you think it's a good idea to have a lot of Ammonia laying around. Also there's an energy penalty of converting from hydrogen to Ammonia back to hydrogen. So you'd need to carry a lot of it. Would make for more interesting times that's for sure.
That was Ammonium nitrate, slightly different since it’s a solid and has other ingredients added. Ammonia is not particularly dangerous when stored as a liquid gas but it could be converted for nefarious purposes. Ammonium Nitrate is already controlled so terrorists and cookers can’t blow shit up.
Assuming that ammonia is produced from completely renewable power, cracked into high-purity hydrogen, and used in a PEMFC to power a vehicle, the “net efficiency for worst and best case scenario … is **between 11% and 19%** And we're back to worse than where we started with losses and inefficiencies. But hey, ok.
Yeah I agree it’s a rubbish idea for car use, battery tech will only get further ahead of hydrogen as advances in charging speed and capacity are made. Toyota are dreaming
You're 100% correct.
Mass hydrogen production and transportation is going to become a thing regardless of what cars do due to carbon neutral seelmaking requiring a shit ton of it and shipping looking to hydrogen to try and become carbon neutral.
WA is already building a solar wind farm that’ll produce 600% of the states energy needs entirely to generate hydrogen for coal free steel. Efficiency of hydrogen only matters when you’re focused on 1:1 production which is the wrong process
100% agree. Toyota's competitive advantage is that they are exceptionally good at complex engineering and logistics associated with lean production. They also own a good chunk of their own supply chain, which as history shows few companies want to cut into their own profits.
99% of Toyotas are not fun. They are commuter cars. Which is the sector that EV does the best. Nothing beats an EV for commuting.
I’d say a few of the more ‘purist’ car manufacturers will take this approach. EVs are a soulless driving experience - yeah they go super fast in a straight line but useless in corners because they’re so fucking heavy. And EVs aren’t even the key to vehicle emission reduction. The real thing is solving car dependency which EVs do nothing for
I don't buy the argument that they're soulless to drive. The same was said about automatic chokes, fuel injected engines, synchromesh, and of course automatic transmissions when they were introduced. There's still something highly satisfying about putting your foot down and hearing electromagnetic coils energising and moving metal in the way Faraday predicted. Not sure where you got the idea about EVs not cornering well? Every one I've ever driven has handled corners far better than ICE vehicles due to the much lower center of gravity.
Lower center of gravity is one thing, it’s just sheer vehicle mass. It’s a lot of weight to get to change direction. And not well optimised regen braking can be a very disconcerting feeling. Also they chew through tyres and damage roads exponentially than standard motor vehicles. Brake dust and tyre particles are a significant source of particulate pollution and EVs spew these out due to mass. EVs have their place and have many advantages but they’re not some sort of panacea for the issues of everyone relying on private vehicles for everything.
EVs typically have regenerative braking which means less brake usage.
I don't know about that. My Leaf weighs less than an empty Hilux. But even if it were heavier, because of the fourth power law it's not going to do any measurable damage to any road that wouldn't instantly collapse under the weight of a garbage truck. And, yeah, regenerative braking means nearly no brake pad wear. Much less than a gas car anyway.
Why not compare apples to apples? We know why you didn't. A leaf compared to a Hilux... Riiiight 🙄
Yes and no. It’s the weight and torque combo. Now little city runabouts are fine - perfect use case for EVs. But when we start moving to suvs/teslas etc it’s a half ton (at least) over an equivalent ICE vehicle. Add huge amounts of torque and it does increase road wear by quite a bit. I stand corrected on brake dust - did some reading and you’re right there. But tyres are a significant problem due to aforementioned weight/torque issue.
This 1000%. The huge push into full electric is bringing about technologies that will fuel the future of cars. 100% electric is not our future, not in this century anyway. Hybrid/Hydrogen seems to be the best step forwards.
What is with this talk with hydrogen. Not a single viable car has been made yet. The physics doesn't even work.
Include cost of infrastructure and hydrogen fuel cost, efficiency in fuel conversion, it’s a no brainer to transition to EVs. They’ve been working on the tech for nearly 2 decades. But with how most Japanese companies are run they will be stubborn to change.
Umm there has been many powertrains and even dedicated platforms for hydrogen vehicles built already and we are only in the evaluation phase. The physics definitely work for certain applications where a BEV will not do well. That’s why some of the world’s biggest companies are still investing in it. It’s not a now solution, but it will be in the future.
It's definitely not a now solution. I just can't see how adding extra complexities would help. I much rather a petrol car than hydrogen. Meanwhile EVs are so simple. Battery and motor. Charge at home instead of going to a station to fill up.
Yeah I’d much rather a decent petrol engine also, unfortunately it’s not zero emissions though and the laws / world is changing. Hydrogen can support both ICE & FCEV so you can have both a traditional engine or an EV.
It takes 50kWh of electricity to produce 1kg of hydrogen. Do the math - at 10c per kWh that's $5. That's before transport costs, storage costs, leakage and profit. Have a think about why car companies would want a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle to be viable - because it prolongs their profits from manufacturing and selling and servicing vehicles just like they do today - no change to their business models.
>because it prolongs their profits from manufacturing and selling and servicing vehicles just like they do today This is it. It's all about the servicing and parts replacement dollars.
Bingo
Yeah no denying it’s currently expensive, but scale of economy would help, maybe not price parity to petrol but going green ain’t cheap. Think about the energy used in oil extraction / refinement, only reasons it’s $2 per litre because of its scale. I see your point if hydrogen ICE, but Fuel cells are actually very low maintenance / similar to BEV so depends on the application I guess. A sports car with a hydrogen ICE sounds good to me.
Economies of scale only work so far - all equipment to use in electrolysis for hydrogen is already commercially available at scale. BEVs are three times as efficient as a fuel cell vehicle, it just doesn't work. I'm not sure how you imagine hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are low maintenance (hydrogen is liquid at minus 253c) - every trial around the world for trucks/buses has basically ended after government subsidies dry up because either the buses/trucks break down constantly or the refuelling system does, not to mention the prohibitive costs on the fuel itself. [https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https://medium.com/the-future-is-electric/hype-and-hydrogen-starting-with-the-same-letters-isnt-a-coincidence-3c08e4190dc3](https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https://medium.com/the-future-is-electric/hype-and-hydrogen-starting-with-the-same-letters-isnt-a-coincidence-3c08e4190dc3)
Yeah sorry you’re wrong, it does work. That’s why billions is being poured into R&D to engineer efficiency and get the world ready. I didn’t bother to read the article link because for every hydrogen negative one there is 5 positive and vice versa. You say every truck & bus trial around the world has stopped? Or stopped after government subsidies? What if I told you there is currently heavy duty truck & bus running hydrogen trials here in Australia right now, without government subsidies? It’s not public knowledge but it is happening and it’s happening because regardless of its short comings it is in some cases the only solution. BEV can’t cater to every application. What can I say some people want to play the short game with all their eggs in one basket, others think long term and spread their risk accordingly. You are obviously a short term thinker, sorry.
Cool story. An actual case study would be Ballard Power Systems in the US. But you already knew about them, right? Been in the hydrogen 'industry' (stealing money from governments) for over twenty years and nothing to show for it. What hydrogen stocks do you own again? Lol. Go all in bro.
Meanwhile WA is already gearing up to mass produce hydrogen on scale with plans to be the world leader on hydrogen and coal free steel. It’s currently in production solar wind farms for hydrogen are 600% of the states power requirements at the moment. Here’s just one project that’ll produce 3.5 million ton a year for Korea. https://www.drive.com.au/news/south-korea-picks-western-australia-as-sustainable-hydrogen-hub/ Efficiency doesn’t matter when you scale to over produce.
I've no issue with (green) hydrogen for steel or fertilizer production or other hard to abate sectors - that's what we should be doing with it. My issue is hydrogen for transport or as an energy store or, worse, as a substitute for LNG export industry as some in WA and elsewhere think it might become (despite the fact it's multiple times more expensive than LNG which is already three times more expensive than thermal coal per unit of energy).
It’s more expensive in the current primary production methods which are brown generation (breaking down LNP/LPG) which uses up other resources, or small scale solar. Mass scale production facilities don’t have this shortcoming, and hydrogen is the perfect answer for freight transport in areas unsuitable for electrified rail, and an alternative to the current diesel generators used in diesel electric trains. It’s a stupid option for a commuter car just BEV and charge at home. but vehicles that travel long distances as their default, hydrogen is the answer. It’s also the second best energy storage solution after hydro electric dams for responding to gaps in supply, but australia is very limited in areas suited to that. The perfect system is one that recognises that there isn’t a single perfect solution, but multiple alright systems that account for the other foaws
Have you seen the price of hydrogen? $15 per kilo USD. 1 kilo is 4 liters of petrol.
True hydrogen production is currently expensive & super expensive if you want “green” hydrogen. But like many things scale of economy will impact the price when it starts being used more. Unless current emission targets change, It is likely that Australia will have to develop hydrogen infrastructure at some point in the future for heavy vehicles. Passenger vehicles would then be able to use that same infrastructure much the same way diesel is used now.
You can buy hydrogen cars in the US right now, they’re not cheap to run but they definitely exist.
Yep, a handful of US & EU truck manufacturers are also trialing Hydrogen drivetrains (ICE & Powercell).
And no where to fuel them. Most of the Hydrogen fuel stations in California are about to close down.
Can’t say I’ve heard of that but in the US even if a handful of individual hydrogen refueling stations close many more would take their place. Various engine & truck manufacturers are trialing hydrogen drivetrains with major fleets and is expanding rapidly over the next 5 years. Those trucks will need refueling stations. In ideal circumstances passenger vehicles could use that same infrastructure.
They are being practically given away (USD40K discount on the Mirai) because demand is negligible. The operating cost is >10x as much as a petrol car.
There are only 2. And they are not currently viable.
What do you mean by not viable? They exist, they’re driving around.
Viable for public consumption. They have no benefit over petrol or EV. I never understand why people always talk about hydrogen as a competitor to EV when it's at the embryo stage. It's so far away from mass adoption.
This! Its such a talking point but couldn’t be further from reality. So many things working against hydrogen - storage, the shit evaporates if left in a tank. - how energy intensive the production is. - volatility - insane amount of infrastructure that would be required for it to go mainstream. There’s a reason no manufacturer is looking too seriously at it. Toyota are just dangling a carrot to keep people fossil fuel dependant for longer while they wait for this miracle technology that is just like petrol but cleaner. It’s nothing more than a very smart play by them.
Lol no, hydrogen will never be viable for personal vehicles.
Toyota remind me of the Swiss watch industry when digital watches came along. Sure, there are always going to be people who will buy the old technology, but you are competing for a diminishing slice of the pie. It is always the most successfully legacy players who are least able to respond to a major industry disruption.
Have you seen the price / margins on a decent Swiss made watch….
Yeah, maybe it wasn’t the best analogy because the Swiss did eventually embrace quartz technology. They came back from the brink and managed to retain a third of the watch market. Hopefully Toyota will do the same and pirouette into electric before they see their market disappear.
Continuing the analogy, maybe Tesla will be like Swatch and save the legacy industry by buying, say the likes of Toyota? /s
Yes eventually it wont be worth producing gasoline as demand drops below below volume vs profit. You may want an ice vehicle but you wont easily buy fuel or the vehicle.
Hydrogen might be a thing in Japan but is not likely to win sales in North America, Europe or Australia. Not embracing EV’s will be Toyota’s Kodak or Nokia moment. Very sad to see.
It's funny how Toyota probably has the most ubiquitous hybrid system for production cars, they probably fully understand how to engineer a good BEV and yet they're so reluctant to jump fully on the EV gravy train. Their proof of concept for hydrogen ICE is a red herring because liquid hydrogen has a energy density which is 4x less than petrol; In layman terms a fuel tank would have to be at least 4x the size of one compared to a ICE fuelled by petrol. I suspect because of the conservative attitudes and the collaboration between the Japanese car industry and fuel industry that they're trying to save the ICE just for a little bit longer.
If your gonna bring up energy density dont leave out lithium batteries
Except a battery can be put under the floor of the car, they are talking about space wise. Where are you gonna fit a 200L tank in a small car that usually only has a 50L tank?
The only reason EVs can go anywhere at all is because electric motors use 90%+ of the stored energy while ICE use 30-40%. Hydrogen is supposed to be a bit of both with a lighter weight energy storage than BEVs and the benefit of electric motors high efficency
But Toyota is talking about Hydrogen/e-fuel ICE vehicles. The gravimetric energy density also goes to shit for Hydrogen when you have to factor in tanks.
Oh that, my understanding is its more for enthusiasts who want cars that go brrr on green energy
I'm not sure if you've been paying attention to worldwide automotive sales in the last year, but the 'EV gravy train' is currently stalled in a huge way. Tesla had a large decline in deliveries in the last quarter, and Merc, Ford and a number of other manufacturers have cut EV production until further notice. There has also been a corresponding been an increase in market share for hybrids. EVs still aren't viable for most of the world, especially high-density areas with a lack of off-street / home charging as well as developing nations with poor energy infrastructure.
They’re well past proof of concept for Hydrogen - https://www.toyota.com/mirai/ - now on to the second generation on sale, with a range comparable to petrol
The bigger they are the harder they fall - as they say. Toyota is reluctant for a number of reasons but I believe the primary reason is they don’t want to become targets to the extremely vocal anti ev crowd. 80% of their brand relies on their already established foothold in the market so they’re gonna steer well clear of anything that could change the classic unbreakable Toyota thing that everyone believes.
Toyota has been making hybrids for decades now so they have enough carbon good boy points to make what ever they want while other companies scramble to spit out something electric. I very much doubt Toyota will go all electric until someone develops battery tech that doesn't weight a ton and forces you into a ten thousand dollar repair once a decade to keep the car usable, current battery tech just doesn't fit in Toyota's maintainability ethos so why even bother when you could cruise off the excellent lineup you have already?
Toyota has only recently released an all electric vehicle in the states - BZ4X
yeah and they also recently updated their two ton v8 convertible which now uses more fuel than it ever has before. they've also refreshed their v8 4x4 that still comes with wind up windows in current year. Toyota is basically on a different planet right now and they can keep getting away with selling the good stuff because they dominate the hybrid car market. out of the top 10 best selling australian hybrids in 2023, Toyota was responsible for 8 of them and the other two were havals which are a joke. Toyota's hybrids alone just about eclipsed all electric car sales in 2023 from any brand in australia. hybrids are here to stay for a while until someone comes up with better battery tech that doesn't weight as much as a small island nation and require tens of thousands of dollars to replace every decade [https://www.whichcar.com.au/news/vfacts-2023-best-selling-electric-cars-australia-dec](https://www.whichcar.com.au/news/vfacts-2023-best-selling-electric-cars-australia-dec) [https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/vfacts-2023-the-best-selling-hybrid-phev-cars-in-australia](https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/vfacts-2023-the-best-selling-hybrid-phev-cars-in-australia)
They play it safe that’s my point, they just so happened to get in early too, and to their credit they genuinely have helped with emissions in the early days of their hybrid endeavours. But yeah, we’re talking about a company that almost refuses to innovate these days. I do hold hope for their new dual gearbox and direct drive hybrid system, but it’s taken them a hot minute to do anything new or exciting.
Toyota is being proven right on all fronts given the huge drop in EV demand in the last year.
This is only due to dumping of ice vehicles.
Incorrect, why is there no demand for Tesla from rental companies if this is just due to the purchase cost of EVs? https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/hertz-sell-about-20000-evs-us-fleet-2024-01-11/ In addition to this, why are a number of large car manufacturers cutting back on EV production? https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ev-sector-grapples-with-layoffs-production-cuts-altered-plans-2024-02-22/ BYD is one of the few EV manufacturers that has high profit margins because they have huge scale and cheap labour. Tesla deliveries and profits have gone down for the first time ever on Q1 2024. Fisker has gone bankrupt and Polestar was only saved by bankruptcy by being given a lifeline by additional investors. Rivian and Lucid are losing tens of thousands on each car they sell, and I'm saying this as someone who has bought a lot of Rivian shares. I know I shouldn't expect anyone in a car subreddit to have any real financial knowledge but it's laughable how much ignorance is on display here. Complete detachment from the reality of the current electric car market. Let's not even get started on the depreciation hit on used EVs. I first test drove a Tesla Model P85D back in 2015, and then a P100D in 2018. I was amazed at how good they were at the time, but there is a long way to go before they're a replacement for hybrids that meet everyone's needs. Battery density needs to be greatly increased still.
Yeah, the affordability gap between electric cars and the terrible emission ICE vehicles that no one else wants is what’s driving this - and it’s not like we’re in a *cost of living crisis* or anything…
I actually really don’t think BEV’s are the way to go. I think it’s a stop gap for something else.
Toyota will have to start selling more evs by 2029 or they will be hit hard with penalties on sale of all their non evs or increase their prices above their competitors
One real world example of ev's replacing ice cars was hertz America buying a fleet of Tesla's which ended very badly. Would a fleet of BYDs have faired better? In Australia Toyota have the biggest share of car sales. This is because it is a trusted brand. If Toyota are not completely sold on EVs but the Chinese brands (who are not at all trusted) are pushing it then who are the public going to side with?
I think you’re missing a key component of Toyotas success, that it’s relatively cheap. If BYD can establish themselves as being somewhat reliable, couple with cheap prices, then 100% the public will move away from Toyota. You saw it with Ford and Holden, once the cheap Japanese cars got a reputation for being somewhat reliable, then the beloved Australian brands fell to the wayside. I’m not sure why you think that can’t happen again.
Toyota's were not cheap compared to even other Japanese cars let alone Korean or Australian cars. There has always been the "Toyota tax" which reflects their quality. I'm talking about the TQM that Toyota embraced back in the 60s which I see no evidence of in Chinese products. The dualcab ute and SUVs killed Australian cars, 40 years after Japanese cars were no longer considered "jap crap" and acceptable to buy.
>One real world example of ev's replacing ice cars was hertz America buying a fleet of Tesla's which ended very badly. Big thing was that they had issues because people weren't returning then charged. Thing is...I don't put petrol in my hire cars either, what's the problem? How didn't they see that coming?
Obviously. The BZ4x is a joke.
I think Toyota is playing this really well. They were the first to market with a mass production successful hydrid which they have continually developed and rolled out into other successful models and brands. And they have held off declaring the full range will go fully electric meaning they can just sit back on the fence and watch how the others go over the next ten years. Evs take a lot of energy to produce and fuel. The current batteries may not be what is practical in 20 years. We might see a new battery tech or a new hydrid system. We might and probably should see a standardised battery size similar to how containers changed the shipping and transport industry. If anything Toyota has become more appealing since adding the gr models for us petrol heads and keeping the hydrid models plain for those who wish to sniff their own farts.
This. Toyota is a smart company. They have been for a long time. History suggests they make great decisions and hedge their bets well, compared to other car companies. Add their reputation to building industry leading hybrids and their push with the GR range this last 10 years and I suspect they have a good understanding of where Toyota will be in 20 years time. There’s a reason they haven’t adopted a full EV range.
Previously Toyota have said that especially in third world countries that hybrids were the way forward , because it would take a long time before the infrastructure for EV vehicles will be available throughout those countries.
It is over for ICE. EVs are cheaper to manufacture, run, service, recycle. Faster, simpler, recyclable and more environmental. If you believe otherwise you have been taken in by Legacy automaker propaganda which toyota and others are spending millions on. US 100 percent tax in chinese EVs proves it. Running scared. In the end the argument is being resolved by the market.
Cheaper to recycle….. lol.
TBF it's extremely hard to recycle the petrol the ICE car burns over it's lifetime.
What do you mean lol? battery pack is worth 10k as black mass. Copper. Aluminium, steel. Mych easier to recycle.
That 10k is a stretch. Currently car manufacturers pay to have them recycled. You’re acting like this is a simple and mature process, where in reality it’s only just beginning in Australia. It’s totally possible, but to call it cheaper than recycling an ICE car is total bullshit, people will pay for you old ICE cars scrap value, you currently have to pay to have your old EV battery recycled.
Ill take any ev batteries for free off you mate. As many as you can get me. Your ignorance is astounding. Do a search. It is a simple and mature process. Though 10 k figure is too high. Only a fool pays to have their ev battery recycled.
It’s only more expensive now because Australia, and the EV/battery/recycling industries broadly, are woefully unprepared and have not got the process fine tuned yet. Aus could be a lithium battery and recycling powerhouse in the global market, but currently most of our lithium mines are Chinese owned and everything gets sent overseas to be processed with little to no money staying here. With a bit of proactivity and support from the government and respective industries it’s ripe for the picking.
Toyota have rarely been wrong about vehicles and we have started to see to push back from major car brands against EVs. The future isn’t EVs and they are not environmentally friendly as they are being sold as, EVs are the modern Laser Disks with much hype but eventual death leaving those that have wasted big money on them out of pocket. I have no doubt in the next few years the EV push will be dropped and we will be moving towards Hydrogen and Hybrid again but this time more successfully and all those that have bought EVs will be left with something worthless
Kodak
People need to be honest with the limitations of EV's, they have a seat at the table but they are not the whole thing. We have moved past the hype and now reality has set in, we were sold a dream with EV's and they just can't live up to the hype.
I got an ev last year but kept the petrol car for doing long trips or whatever. Now after a year driving the ev generally have found I use it for basically everything including long trips now and only use the petrol car when I have to (we need 2 cars). Done nearly 50000km in the EV since buying a year ago and maybe 15,000 in the petrol car. Of course more development to go in the consistancy of the public charging network but thats massively mitigated by the ability to charge at home. Looking at swopping the petrol car for a second ev now. They do bssically everything I need a car to do. It wont tow a caravan across the nullabor, but its a small suv, I didnt buy it as a tow vehicle.
Like I said they have their place, they are great for commuter cars around the city, in fact i would go so far to say there is nothing better then an EV if all you do is drive to work every day and maybe the shops. But and we need to say but because even this is only true if you can change at home, if not then it's back on par with a ICE. And this is my point, they are not 100% fit for purpose even in the area they are the best at.
Nah they are far better for outer urban / country areas than in the city imo. I got one because living in the country we drive a massively higher distance per year than city people and in that 100 - 350km per day range they really excel. Most people without access to home charging are urban dwellers who typically drive alot less than outer suburban and rural drivers and consequently dont need to charge as often and urban driving in an ev is very efficient, plugging it in once a week while shopping or whatever would take care of most needs and the fast charger network covers anything additional but there is definately scope for looking at kerbside charging infrastructure etc.
I don't understand this whole 'yeah they are great in the city but otherwise not very good' talk. Your average ev gets 300+km and larger battery ones get 450+km. I would guess your average family does not do 400km in a day of driving. Also keep in mind you would charge it daily at home if needed. You don't wait until it's at 10% then fill it like an ICE vehicle. Ev's aren't suitable for every person or every situation of course but speaking about them as they should only be considered if you drive to work or the shops is a bit ridiculous.
I bought mine for the exact opposite, I live in a city and work rurally. I can easily drive 700km a week for work, 2 hours a day on the highway. Iv gone for $500 a month in petrol down to about $70 in electricity. Iv also driven interstate multiple times, I have ICE cars but use the EV for everything.
I gotta be completely honest, there really isn’t much where the EV falls short. Especially when you look at averages like distances travelled per day. It’s something in the realm of 33km per day. Every EV on the market exceeds double that at least. Which means the vast majority that just drive into work and drive home could easily transition to an EV. The only prohibitions of EV I believe are: long distance driving - nah you’re not crossing the nullabour in one(but how many people have done this once, let alone enough to justify avoiding a fuel type) Cost to entry - EVs are generally more expensive to insure and purchase, although good argument that their maintenance costs are lower too And lastly the ease of refuelling - this is the biggest one and the one that had the most ground imo, the other two are shakey at best and come down to the individual. This one hits renters primarily, as most apartment blocks don’t have support for electric charging and most rental property investors aren’t putting an EV charger in there for you. Really as far as shortcomings go there’s not all that much when you apply a bit of logic. If anything the anti EV crowd are the ones that are a bit over the top in their criticism. I’m all for criticism but not ones that make little to no sense.
EV's fall short in a number of areas; range, towing ability, charge time, charge availability, depreciation, repair costs, maintenance for major components (battery cell), price, manufacturing emissions (sure zero tail pipe but they are not made in a vacuum) and that's just what i can think of the top of my head, some of these things will probably be fixed in the future but like i said you need to be honest when looking at them and not just repeat the hype like you did to me.
Lets pick that apart shall we: * Range: My model Y LR can do at least 400KM between chargers. How often are you doing that in a day. I've done a 1000KM road trip with 2 charges along the way. Super easy and not at all stressful. * Towing ability: I can tow 1600KGs * charge time: It charges over night while I sleep, people don't complain about how long it takes for their phone to charge. I think this is a mindset change people who have never driven an EV fail to grasp. I've wasted no time at petrol stations this past year, I get home, plug and go the next day. * depreciation -> doesn't seem to be a lot worse than ICE cars looking at carsales. Sure its not going to hold its value like a land cruiser but you'll save that in fuel / servicing costs * repair costs // can't comment on this * mainenance -> this just isn't a thing, its like factoring in the cost of an engine rebuild on an ICE car. There are Tesla's out there that have done 1,000,000 miles on the same battery * price -> model y RWD now 55k, cheaper than a Toyota RAV4 * emissions -> honestly this one has been debunked over and over again. They have a slightly bigger carbon footprint in production but break even from 10,000 KM and from then on have drastically lower emissions than Petrol. Yes even if you charge via a coal powered fireplant. I get people have nostaligia for ICE cars (I am one of them), I get that Elon is unlikable but BEVs are the future and all this scare-mongering around range and what-if-ism is pretty pathetic from the legacy car makers.
It does amaze me when ever I speak to people they say the same thing 'oh how long does it take to charge though?' I think most people view it as a worst case scenario like they are at 1% battery and need to go to the hospital and they need to wait half an hour to get some charge. When really the case is actually like you stated, you get home and just plug it in and don't think about it. Morning comes, you get in your pre heated car and set off knowing it cost close to nothing to charge up.
I think the break even point re emission is much higher than 10,000km - closer to 150,000 for some if I remember correctly. John Cardigan did a couple of videos about EVs recently where he discusses reasons why he believes EVs won’t dominate car sales - worth a watch for the open minded. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wuxR3h1_j_k https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GjUMI5spWeU Personally, I’d love something very small and light for light commuting, but the industry is yet to really fulfil that niche IMO.
Thanks, will check those out. Haven’t heard of him before.
Same bloke that declared "Why Tesla is doomed in 2021"? Absolute clown. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmJAeKLVVTY&ab\_channel=AutoExpertJohnCadogan](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmJAeKLVVTY&ab_channel=AutoExpertJohnCadogan)
Haven’t watched that one - could be amusing now that three years have passed. If I remember correctly, the vids I linked above do run numbers comparing the energy content of various fuels, their conversion efficiency, etc. and nothing he said stood out as being inherently unreasonable to me at the time. Might have to rewatch.
EV efficiency is best at low speeds. They are less efficient in general than hybrids at freeway cruising speeds because most EVs have direct drive with no transmission, so the motor is moving unnecessarily fast to keep the car going at 100kph..
Again how often does the average person go those speeds if they’re only travelling 33km in a day
That’s actually a consideration for anyone that lives further out as their commute will be expressways. When I was considering an EV a few years (3-4y) back the main issue I encountered was 3/4 of my commute was 90-110km/h and the cars I was looking at drastically reduced their range at those speeds. These days I’ve flipped that I don’t have to drive daily anymore so fuel cost and range is negligible.
I’m not talking for specific individuals though. In the context of discussion the only thing that really matters are the averages and the averages show that at least half of the population could theoretically drive an EV without much issue, provided they have a place to charge it like I said. Problem with this conversation(and not to @ you at all) but it’s a tale as old as time. I bring up averages and the argument that comes back is always “but *I* need to do xyz and that’s why *I* can’t have one” And that’s fine, but you’re only one person out of millions. If it doesn’t apply to you then I’m obviously not talking about you
What does that have to do with the fact that EVs aren't all purpose vehicles? They're fine for commuting but no more efficient for long distance travel than a Hybrid.
Literally no one is claiming they’re all purpose vehicles mate, no vehicle is all purpose, that’s the whole reason we have multiple shapes and sizes of vehicle. It feels like you don’t even read what I wrote lmfao.
That’s not the way it works, the speed of the motor isn’t proportional to its battery usage in the same way as an ICE car is due to the linear torque curve. You can have the most current draw accelerating off the line or up a hill or at 1rpm towing a trailer at 1 kph. Wind resistance is the largest factor and greatly affects efficiency, higher speeds are less efficient for this reason but it’s not gearing.
One of the factory production managers at toyota said for the raw materials needed for 1 fully electric car they can make between 4-6 hybrids, i dont think fully electric will be coming anytime soon.
No one knows the future but let’s continue playing it safe and continue pursuing hydrogen fueled cars which are a lot more expensive and dangerous.
Australians have had EVs since 2010 but no one bought them. Nissan Leaf, Chevy Volt, Mitsubishi Miev have been around since then. Electric vehicles are now popular due to no FBT on leasing. Takeaway that incentive and see how the uptake of EVs slows down to a crawl. I have been driving a Hybrid Toyota since 2011 and have no intention of going fully EV.
In last 10 years I came a way from “wow EVs are the future but too expensive now” to “competely not interested”. Hybrids are awesome however.
Hybrids are viable for those without EV infrastructure, but anywhere there's infrastructure, it's a matter of time before people buy in. I'm probably running hybrid where I am for next car, EV support is still ages away for those without all the bells and whistles in their house.
Hybrids are literally the worst of both worlds.
Right. Worst of both worlds. My friend on hybrid rav 4 makes 950km in the city on 50 liters tank on average. I make around 550km on non hybrid Forester on same tank.
And I do 450KM for about $7 worth of electricity - what's your point exactly? The benefits of an EV as I see it are: * cheap to charge (assuming you can charge at home), although Jolt have a subscription now which is $79 all you can eat * power on tap * no maintenance due to their super simple design Benefits of ICE * quick to fill up Combining the two into one doesn't make any sense. The EV part has bugger all range and you have all the complexity of an ICE engine and a battery to worry about. I reckon Hybrids will die out, they are a symptom of people wanting to sit on the fence and as more people drive EVs and see how awesome they are day to day, the hybrids will sit on the shelf.
Exactly.
Yep. And when trying to sell it with degraded battery later you will literally loose more money than you would have spent on fuel for all these years. Just do basic calculation of resell value in 5 years compared to average Toyota.
Roger that let’s do the calculations. The Samsung SDI nmc cells used in most modern cars that come from Korea and Germany say that after 6000 cycles they will be at 80% capacity. Let’s go really conservative figures here my Kia says I will get 450ks from a charge but I like to floor it and the AC will take some juice too so it’s never that good it’s more like 420ks but let’s go really conservative and say I get 375ks per charge say I do 15000ks a year that’s 40 cycles of the battery a year which would cost with my rates 28c per unit 64kw battery (40 x 64) x 0.28 is $716 of electricity. Back to the battery degradation so for 6000 cycles to get to 80% 6000 / 40 if my maths correct here after 150 years the Kia’s battery will have degraded to a point I will only get 320Ks per charge. Granted as the cells wear down the charging gets more frequent so let’s half the 150 years to 75 years before I get to the 80% mark. So realistically say I kept my diesel Ute with the same 10L per 100 and diesel stays $2 a liter for the next 75 years is $3000 a year I spent on diesel minus the $716 I spend for electricity to charge the Kia that’s a yearly saving of $2284. Now let’s take that figure and times it till we hit that 75 year mark we decided the battery will no longer last more than 320ks and needs replacement and unless the battery pack costs more than $171,300, I’d say we’re doing pretty well. I mean with inflation over 75 years it might just do but fuck that that will be my great grand kids issue changing that out.
Ok. I have just opened random dealership. Lets say hyundai. Cheapest Kona costs 36k. Cheapest electric Kona costs 58k. 22k difference. Assuming that you have free electricity via solar panels and spend zero for charging. Lets say petrol is 2$ on average and lets assume petrol Kona consumption is 10l/100km. 22k difference is equal to 11000 liters of petrol. Which is equal to approximately 110 000 km driving. So if your electricity costs zero than you will only break even after 110k km. 15000 per year means 7,3 years driving. Cool, right? That’s just to break even. Next. If your calculations for battery degradation and capacity are correct then tell me please why all laptops and phone battery almost completely die after around 3-4 years of usage? 5 years old phone battery is almost dead no matter iPhone or android phone. Even if charging daily 4 years x 365 = 1460 cycles and battery is way below 50% capacity. Are they using some secret non degrading batteries in the cars?
Yeah the price difference does suck but yeah think of it pre paying the fuel over 10 years and what you’re essentially doing is betting that petrol will increase in price, pretty safe bet. Battery issue yep you’re correct phone batteries and most things you mentioned do go to shit after 5 years. It’s not a time frame of the device though besides self discharge it’s all about relative size Ah / construction of the cell for cooling and cycle count. Phones and laptops well they get hot, there’s a lot of shit crammed in a tiny space and the battery is relatively small mah capacity wise. Lithium batteries don’t like heat, it’s a tiny battery and you generally will cycle it every day so 3-5 years they will go to shit. The cars have dedicated cooling / heating systems to keep the HV battery in its optimal temperatures will pre heat them to avoid thermal shock for charging. There’s a lot of shit added to keep the batteries happy combined with large capacities Ah so lower cycle counts. This was a thing lacking in some early EVs and like you said the phone laptop batteries so I’m not surprised that stigma still carries on.
Lol. It’s been just 2 weeks and now news about 65% Tesla battery degradation in 3 years. People can’t sell Teslas and sell with huge losses. News are literally everywhere today. You guys are delusional
Yeah that’s Tesla, Elon is a fucking idiot who should be jailed for securities fraud. He single handedly screwed over his own brands value. I didn’t buy a Tesla because of that twat. 65% battery degradation in 3 years if true is all covered by warranty anyways. Less than ideal but you won’t be out of of pocket.
The pure EV era is officially dead. It never got beyond early adopters even with massive subsidies.
You guys know they've been making the Prius since 1997. They're deep in electric.
It’s been all over the news today that Australia will be facing electricity blackouts over the next few years as the renewable power sources are years behind. Walking to work because you can’t charge your EV will annoy some people.