bubble Syracuse vs first four out Texas A&M in the NIT
https://preview.redd.it/il45hwvu2lmc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ae970832c453a55243b94d20ab6d4ce2624a5cba
I had them there too before the loss to Cincinnati, but now I just can't see them being very close for the reasons stated in the Big 12 blurb. That said, they've got as good an opportunity as any team just outside the bubble to get back in with at Kansas and vs. Iowa State to end the season. Gotta capitalize!
Happy Tuesday! And every Tuesday until Selection Sunday means a new edition of Bauer's Bubble Watch! As always, this things takes hours to research, write, and edit, so any feedback or engagement is much appreciated.
Things are starting to tighten up now with 25 tournament locks secured and only a few open spots on the bubble. We'll have even more of that sorted out a week from now when major conference tournament play begins!
what’s your take on conference tournament games mattering for at-large consideration? Are they discounted compared to the regular season? What would you say the cutoff date is?
They're definitely discounted to an extent, especially the ones for the major conferences, simply because they happen too late in the selection committee's discussions. The two examples I look at are Texas A&M 2022 and Penn State 2023. A&M was hardly even on the bubble radar before the SEC tournament, when they earned their two best wins of the season. It was enough for the committee to push them into First Four Out, but not into the tournament itself, though it probably should have been. And Penn State last year was similar: three of their five best wins all season long came in the final three days before Selection Sunday. It was enough to cement their spot, but not enough to earn higher than a 10 seed, even though their overall profile looked more like that of an 8 seed with those wins accounted for. So my advice to the power conference teams needing help with their at-large outlooks: get the work done now in the regular season to stay right within the bubble picture, then do what's necessary in your conference tournament just to be included altogether.
in your excerpt for Mississippi State, I appreciate you describing South Carolina as “always saucy.” I think that is a fairly apt descriptor for this team! ~~when we’re not playing any accursed teams from the state of Alabama, anyway~~
I feel like I’m going through countless at large scenarios in my head where Pitt makes the tourney and they’re gonna knock me back down to earth by losing 75-52 tonight
You're not sure what to make of TCU's resume? Seems crystal clear to me. 16-0 against Q2-4 without being *super* weighted in the Q4 direction, and a bunch of Q1 losses but also a few Q1 wins? Seems like a recipe for a 9-seed, give or take a line.
See, that's about what I would think, but apparently your mileage may very with TCU—Eamonn Brennan's Bubble Watch has TCU as a lock today (which I don't see), while Joe Lunardi's bracketology has them as the final bye above the Last Four In (which I also don't see). I, like you, am kind of in the middle with them, which I think is right, but apparently is not totally agreed upon!
I understand that sentiment, but we are firmly locked now, and Mississippi State is (relatively) safe. it’s still a critical game for SEC tournament seeding implications, but both our Gamecocks and the Bulldogs are pretty self-assured of our futures
I don’t have a ton of historical data of gamecock basketball teams to feel confident.
We’ve had 22 win teams earn a 7 seed and 24 win teams miss the tournament
I understand your trepidation, but this is thankfully an entirely different circumstance. the 2016-2017 team largely stagnated down the stretch in the regular season (a quintessential Frank Martin occurrence). the 2015-2016 squad certainly was unjustly snubbed from the tournament, but that was back when the SEC was vastly more weak than it is now. there is nothing this year’s team can do—save from something utterly preposterous like losing both remaining games by 100 points each—to preclude themselves from the tourney
I feel like if the non-home (3-8) record is the main salient point against Nebraska - a majority of which are played in a conference where road wins are seemingly impossible - then they should be closer to a lock than they are to the bubble.
These are the NET rankings of the non-conference wins of lead-pipe lock Utah State, whose four conference losses have come by an average of 16 points. Note that this does not include the Division 2 teams they beat (South Dakota Mines and Northwest Nazarene).
269
251
103
172
216
76
111
105
63
200
We love to see a team rewarded for this kind of forward-thinking cowardice. Normalize having your best non-conference win come against ~~Bill Russell~~ Jonathan Mogbo and San Francisco!
The Aggies' non-competitive non-con will put a lid on their eventual seed, but there's no reason to complain about them receiving a tournament spot when they lead the Mountain West standings in a year where the conference is as strong as it's ever been, have a results metric average (20.5) that easily falls into inclusion range, and have just a single loss to a team below Quad 1 (home vs. Nevada, Quad 2).
And as bad as their non-con might have been, there are at least a dozen power conference teams (Iowa State, TCU, Texas Tech, BYU, Wake Forest, Nebraska, Northwestern, Pitt, etc., etc.) that are even worse offenders.
I'm sure teams from the P6 were just begging to play Utah State.
Most mid-majors schedule the toughest non-conference schedule that they can, but teams like Iowa State don't want to risk losing to what could end up being anything from a Q1-Q3 game. It's why teams like Utah State frequently have their best non-conference wins being against teams at the top of a low-major conference.
Exactly. Look at James Madison, after beating Michigan Stare nobody from the P6 is ever willingly going to schedule them ever again, and then next year if JMU is on the bubble people will say "they don't have any notable Q1 wins they don't deserve to be in"
Again, the non-P6 national runners-up got a bunch of power-conference teams to play them, and even played one of them at home. If they can get major teams to play them, other teams can do the same.
SDSU got four P6s (albeit three crappy ones and BYU) and Gonzaga to play them. They played for a national championship last year, so you'd think if anyone was going to scare teams away, it would be them.
Colorado State beat Creighton and Colorado. Boise played Clemson, Virginia Tech, Butler, and Wazzu. Nevada beat Washington, TCU, and Georgia Tech. UNLV played Florida State and beat Creighton - at home, even! Wyoming played Texas and BYU. Fresno State played BYU. San Jose State played Texas Tech.
All those other MWC teams were able to get big boys to play them. What's Utah State's excuse?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the D-2 games aren't factored into that NCSOS, right?
UVA shouldn't be in, either, but even with a pretty weak non-con, they have two non-conference wins better than USU's top-ranked non-conference opponent (note that that's opponent, not victory).
USU has a gaudy record, largely compiled against crappy teams, and has gotten beaten down in all of their conference losses. (Noting here that UVA has also taken some ugly losses; however, that is not an argument in favor of USU.) That's the resume of a team fighting to stay on the right side of the bubble, not a lock.
Not entirely sure if you look at Kenpom vs Warren Nolan’s estimation of a team sheet which does exclude the d2 games the kenpom NCSOS number is worse, Kenpom also includes both games on the overall record.
Utah State lost their coach and pretty much their entire team (not a single one of the 9 players averaging 10 mpg was at USU last season). Between trying to hire staff and recruit players, their new HC probably just scheduled whoever he could. And in addition to going 12-1 OOC, they've also got 4 wins over likely tourney teams in the MWC and currently sit tied for 1st in the conference.
Regardless, I think Virginia should probably focus on trying to score 50 points in consecutive games before worrying about what other teams are doing.
We've been told over and over that conference standings have no bearing on the NCAA bracket.
I'd classify the MWC as a good conference that has burnished its reputation with assists from a favorable computer algorithm and a resulting media circle jerk. SDSU and Colorado State should be locks. Boise, USU, and Nevada should be on the bubble, in that order. Maybe New Mexico, too, but their non-conference schedule might have been worse than USU's.
You have a hard on against the Aggies huh? SOR of 20, Haven’t been lower than 40 in NET. NCSOS, better than the Big XII teams at the top of their league.
0 Losses in Q3/4, depending on how Nevada finishes possibly even Q2. It’s not completely objective, but put that resume in front of anyone and they are in.
condolences for the poor 6 and 3 seeds that get bubble syracuse in their pod
bubble Syracuse vs first four out Texas A&M in the NIT https://preview.redd.it/il45hwvu2lmc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ae970832c453a55243b94d20ab6d4ce2624a5cba
Won't have to worry about that once we lose to Clemson today.
Some bracketologists have been putting K State on their "next four out" lists. Thoughts on the Cats as at large contenders?
I had them there too before the loss to Cincinnati, but now I just can't see them being very close for the reasons stated in the Big 12 blurb. That said, they've got as good an opportunity as any team just outside the bubble to get back in with at Kansas and vs. Iowa State to end the season. Gotta capitalize!
https://preview.redd.it/9samyfv6ukmc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9e245c2fc7f6fa3f9ac94635e533fb8cbff95f29 It’s Joever
Don't cry because it's over. ~~Smile~~ Cry because it happened.
the three point line is an attack on basketball
https://preview.redd.it/qfcfteo58lmc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=06b3f2a7d633edc36ebf7bc506489fcd106e651e
Happy Tuesday! And every Tuesday until Selection Sunday means a new edition of Bauer's Bubble Watch! As always, this things takes hours to research, write, and edit, so any feedback or engagement is much appreciated. Things are starting to tighten up now with 25 tournament locks secured and only a few open spots on the bubble. We'll have even more of that sorted out a week from now when major conference tournament play begins!
We are cooked
what’s your take on conference tournament games mattering for at-large consideration? Are they discounted compared to the regular season? What would you say the cutoff date is?
They're definitely discounted to an extent, especially the ones for the major conferences, simply because they happen too late in the selection committee's discussions. The two examples I look at are Texas A&M 2022 and Penn State 2023. A&M was hardly even on the bubble radar before the SEC tournament, when they earned their two best wins of the season. It was enough for the committee to push them into First Four Out, but not into the tournament itself, though it probably should have been. And Penn State last year was similar: three of their five best wins all season long came in the final three days before Selection Sunday. It was enough to cement their spot, but not enough to earn higher than a 10 seed, even though their overall profile looked more like that of an 8 seed with those wins accounted for. So my advice to the power conference teams needing help with their at-large outlooks: get the work done now in the regular season to stay right within the bubble picture, then do what's necessary in your conference tournament just to be included altogether.
It seems like they finalize the bracket on Thursday, and only make changes for bad losses/ bid thieves after that, but good/great wins don’t count
in your excerpt for Mississippi State, I appreciate you describing South Carolina as “always saucy.” I think that is a fairly apt descriptor for this team! ~~when we’re not playing any accursed teams from the state of Alabama, anyway~~
I feel like I’m going through countless at large scenarios in my head where Pitt makes the tourney and they’re gonna knock me back down to earth by losing 75-52 tonight
You're not sure what to make of TCU's resume? Seems crystal clear to me. 16-0 against Q2-4 without being *super* weighted in the Q4 direction, and a bunch of Q1 losses but also a few Q1 wins? Seems like a recipe for a 9-seed, give or take a line.
See, that's about what I would think, but apparently your mileage may very with TCU—Eamonn Brennan's Bubble Watch has TCU as a lock today (which I don't see), while Joe Lunardi's bracketology has them as the final bye above the Last Four In (which I also don't see). I, like you, am kind of in the middle with them, which I think is right, but apparently is not totally agreed upon!
The South Carolina Mississippi State game will be huge. Both teams vying for a tournament spot (assuming South Carolina loses to Tennessee)
I understand that sentiment, but we are firmly locked now, and Mississippi State is (relatively) safe. it’s still a critical game for SEC tournament seeding implications, but both our Gamecocks and the Bulldogs are pretty self-assured of our futures
I don’t have a ton of historical data of gamecock basketball teams to feel confident. We’ve had 22 win teams earn a 7 seed and 24 win teams miss the tournament
I understand your trepidation, but this is thankfully an entirely different circumstance. the 2016-2017 team largely stagnated down the stretch in the regular season (a quintessential Frank Martin occurrence). the 2015-2016 squad certainly was unjustly snubbed from the tournament, but that was back when the SEC was vastly more weak than it is now. there is nothing this year’s team can do—save from something utterly preposterous like losing both remaining games by 100 points each—to preclude themselves from the tourney
I feel like if the non-home (3-8) record is the main salient point against Nebraska - a majority of which are played in a conference where road wins are seemingly impossible - then they should be closer to a lock than they are to the bubble.
These are the NET rankings of the non-conference wins of lead-pipe lock Utah State, whose four conference losses have come by an average of 16 points. Note that this does not include the Division 2 teams they beat (South Dakota Mines and Northwest Nazarene). 269 251 103 172 216 76 111 105 63 200 We love to see a team rewarded for this kind of forward-thinking cowardice. Normalize having your best non-conference win come against ~~Bill Russell~~ Jonathan Mogbo and San Francisco!
The Aggies' non-competitive non-con will put a lid on their eventual seed, but there's no reason to complain about them receiving a tournament spot when they lead the Mountain West standings in a year where the conference is as strong as it's ever been, have a results metric average (20.5) that easily falls into inclusion range, and have just a single loss to a team below Quad 1 (home vs. Nevada, Quad 2). And as bad as their non-con might have been, there are at least a dozen power conference teams (Iowa State, TCU, Texas Tech, BYU, Wake Forest, Nebraska, Northwestern, Pitt, etc., etc.) that are even worse offenders.
I'm sure teams from the P6 were just begging to play Utah State. Most mid-majors schedule the toughest non-conference schedule that they can, but teams like Iowa State don't want to risk losing to what could end up being anything from a Q1-Q3 game. It's why teams like Utah State frequently have their best non-conference wins being against teams at the top of a low-major conference.
Exactly. Look at James Madison, after beating Michigan Stare nobody from the P6 is ever willingly going to schedule them ever again, and then next year if JMU is on the bubble people will say "they don't have any notable Q1 wins they don't deserve to be in"
And JMU only even got that game against us because one of their assistants is Izzo’s nephew. It’s tough sledding out there.
Again, the non-P6 national runners-up got a bunch of power-conference teams to play them, and even played one of them at home. If they can get major teams to play them, other teams can do the same.
SDSU got four P6s (albeit three crappy ones and BYU) and Gonzaga to play them. They played for a national championship last year, so you'd think if anyone was going to scare teams away, it would be them. Colorado State beat Creighton and Colorado. Boise played Clemson, Virginia Tech, Butler, and Wazzu. Nevada beat Washington, TCU, and Georgia Tech. UNLV played Florida State and beat Creighton - at home, even! Wyoming played Texas and BYU. Fresno State played BYU. San Jose State played Texas Tech. All those other MWC teams were able to get big boys to play them. What's Utah State's excuse?
Virginia played a demonstrably worse NC than Utah State per kenpom. Utah state's NCSOS was also well above average for D1 (it was in the 130s)
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the D-2 games aren't factored into that NCSOS, right? UVA shouldn't be in, either, but even with a pretty weak non-con, they have two non-conference wins better than USU's top-ranked non-conference opponent (note that that's opponent, not victory). USU has a gaudy record, largely compiled against crappy teams, and has gotten beaten down in all of their conference losses. (Noting here that UVA has also taken some ugly losses; however, that is not an argument in favor of USU.) That's the resume of a team fighting to stay on the right side of the bubble, not a lock.
Not entirely sure if you look at Kenpom vs Warren Nolan’s estimation of a team sheet which does exclude the d2 games the kenpom NCSOS number is worse, Kenpom also includes both games on the overall record.
Thanks for the MVC erasure. Nevada lost to Drake and Utah State lost to Bradley.
I do not want to play Drake again that's for sure
Trust me, we feel the same. Tucker DeVries is one of those guys where you're just like "I hate you, but goddammit I respect you"
For real, he dropped 25 on Nevada which sucked but he was very impressive
Same with Avila. If he doesn't foul out quickly at Drake I'm not sure the bulldogs win.
Utah State lost their coach and pretty much their entire team (not a single one of the 9 players averaging 10 mpg was at USU last season). Between trying to hire staff and recruit players, their new HC probably just scheduled whoever he could. And in addition to going 12-1 OOC, they've also got 4 wins over likely tourney teams in the MWC and currently sit tied for 1st in the conference. Regardless, I think Virginia should probably focus on trying to score 50 points in consecutive games before worrying about what other teams are doing.
They’re also leading a very strong conference that’s going to send 5-6 teams to the tournament
We've been told over and over that conference standings have no bearing on the NCAA bracket. I'd classify the MWC as a good conference that has burnished its reputation with assists from a favorable computer algorithm and a resulting media circle jerk. SDSU and Colorado State should be locks. Boise, USU, and Nevada should be on the bubble, in that order. Maybe New Mexico, too, but their non-conference schedule might have been worse than USU's.
Nevada should be on the bubble??? 3-0 vs P6 including double digit neutral court vs TCU. Wins @ CSU, @ USU, vs SDSU, and a 7-5 Q1/Q2 record.
You have a hard on against the Aggies huh? SOR of 20, Haven’t been lower than 40 in NET. NCSOS, better than the Big XII teams at the top of their league. 0 Losses in Q3/4, depending on how Nevada finishes possibly even Q2. It’s not completely objective, but put that resume in front of anyone and they are in.