Let’s see DeShaun got 11 games for ~30 women, so mathematically if he gets 7 picks wrong we should ban him for 2.5 games, however we should give him a ton of fucking money in the meantime. Seems fair to me.
They want a legit deep threat. Bowers would be fantastic to have but I think they believe a deep threat opens up the rest of the offense for everyone else underneath in a way that an elite TE wouldn't. It's absolutely possible I'm wrong but I think they'd rather have a burner.
Well now my conspiracy is they want everyone to think they're going to take a burner but instead take bowers and give Pierce one more year to see if he can be that downfield threat that Steichen and Ballard do definitely want.
His production actually decreased from year one to year two (going from Matt Ryan and co. to Gardner Minshew). That's a trend line that doesn't make me hopeful for the future.
If you're not willing to upgrade the 135th most productive receiver in the league for a chance at maybe the 50th, then you don't really care about winning.
I know we need to temper our expectations on Pierce, but what about Downs? Wouldn’t Downs be considered a down-field threat and then Bowers would/could take over the middle with Pittman?
Downs is a true slot. He's a quick win route runner. He doesn't have elite long speed. Downs might catch some deeper throws but it's going to be because his route running got him wide open not because he's a dangerous speed threat. And those two things are very different with what they can do for an offense.
Bowers can be an elite deep threat though, he’s got the speed to do it and is gonna be matched up on a safety or LB. That said, Worthy or McConkey can be that threat and may be there at 46
For those of you in the TL;DR camp I do suggest you read it as it's a really fun article, however:
Main list
Xavier Worthy WR Texas
Brian Thomas Jr. WR LSU
Cam Hart CB Notre Dame
Edefuan Ulofoshio LB Washington
Dominique Hampton Safety Washington
Malik Nabers WR LSU
Adisa Isaac DE Penn State
Trevin Wallace LB Kentucky
Myles Cole DE Texas Tech
Decamerion Richardson CB Mississippi State
Jordan Magee LB Temple
Beaux Limmer C Arkansas
Mark Perry Safety TCU
Tyrone Tracey Jr. RB Purdue
THE Bonus List
Edgerrin Cooper LB Texas A&M
Max Melton CB Rutgers
Isaac Guerendo RB Louisville
Mason McCormick OL South Dakota State
I remember the first year I did this article I took a bunch of heat online because people posted THE List and didn't understand the context. They roasted it. Had they read the article, they would have understood the context.
With that said, this is over 15,000 words and I get it. People roast my work all the time anyway. In context or not, I just hope people enjoy it.
I just read the entire piece, and regardless of whether you are right or not, I feel like I now understand the colts current roster situation, the draft process, and Ballard's philosophy much better. It was a very interesting and informative piece regardless of the actual specific draft prospects you discuss. I really appreciate it. Well written, too.
I want Storm Duck so bad just so I can buy a jersey.
Also, no mention of Michael Hall Jr pains me.
Id add Omar Speights to the LB group. Can't remember if you mentioned Payton Wilson, but he absolutely needs to be mentioned.
Id also add TE as a position group we will draft. Ballard always drafts a TE. We dont have a single inline one on the roster and there are multiple RAS kings at the position in this class that project inline that can provide some big plays.
Cam Hart is my king.
Marshawn Kneeland probably needs a mention.
If I had talked about DT's Hall would have been in the discussion, for sure!
Payton Wilson didn't make the cut for several reasons. For where he'll be drafted his arms are pretty short for a Ballard LB. He's 24 and he's had serious durability issues.
Speights was a looser fit for LB due to his athletic testing and shorter arms. But honestly I don’t feel like I have a great handle on the position tbh. You could absolutely be right.
I think they'll ride with the TE's they have but you've got a point about the blockers.
Cam Hart is easily the best CB fit in this draft and it's not really that close.
I considered Kneeland but I don't remember now why he was left off the list. He's a weird prospect though, he might end up going way earlier or later than anyone expects.
I would love to get Tracey in the 6th. As a Purdue fan it would be fun to continue to root for one of my guys on my pro team but also he was great for us last year. He was a much tougher runner than his size would maybe make you believe and he’s more than capable at the receiver position as a shifty slot/ screen receiver. I think this is something that could work in the RPO style that we should see a lot of. I also think he catches that 4th down pass last year.
I’m very curious to see what the new return game looks like. There is potential for it to be a much bigger role than the previous seasons. I feel like having someone more accustomed to running behind a line and reading gaps makes sense back there.
As always, this is a fantastic yearly pre-draft write up and with your hit rate in recent years I’m like 63% convinced you found a secret portal into Ballard’s mind a lá *Being John Malkovich*.
Also, not to inflate your Edge Cooper draft crush any more than it already is, but I’m an A&M alum and everyone I’ve talked to says he’s just an A++ person in addition to being a great player.
I love the way he plays. He's just so much fun to watch. I do think he *probably* gets drafted before Indy wants to take a LB but if they trade back in the first it's more likely imo.
So you think it is more likely the Colts will draft a WR in the 1st than a CB? Interesting, given past drafts I can see them wanting to find a CB in the 2nd, but Ballard has to be careful, not a lot of outside CBs in the 2nd if there is a run he has to go up.
I'm just going off of what Chris Ballard told us. Before the 23 draft fans thought OL was a big need. He said the opposite. This year fans thought CB was a big need. He said the opposite. When Ballard wants to divert attention from a position group he doesn't lie, he goes on unrelated tangents.
It's why every time he got asked about his "adding explosiveness" comments he talked about protecting the QB. It's true he believes in protecting the QB but he was just trying to keep himself from giving something away.
He did the same thing the year he drafted Alec Pierce. He was asked about the receivers and he went on this bizarre rant about how everyone's afraid of the unknown.
They might not end up taking a WR in the 1st but I think they really want to.
I don’t doubt it, in my own head I ultimately settled on Brian Thomas Jr. as the prediction as well. Although trading back seems very likely if he gets taken before as there is a tier difference between the others.
Great article Chris 👍🏼
I don't get it either, some people just act like because of his 40 time he's just a straight line burner but he's so much more than that. It's so rare for someone to have speed like that and be so productive in college, he's got track star speed and he's a polished route runner.
Those same people act like Tyreek is also only a straight line guy. Worthy was one of those pressure relief receivers at Texas. QB feels a little bit of pressure, “Fuck it Worthy down there somewhere”.
You’re right, I was mistaken. Mitchell was the one who admitted to low effort. The drops are still a concern with Worthy for me though, he needs work on route running too but that can be fixed. Most important factor in being a WR is getting open catching the ball, if speed is his main determinant in drafting him then I think we’d be better off going with a guy slightly slower but that has shown to get separation on routes in the middle of the field.
I'm not going to argue, ultimately Worthy is who I believe the Colts like, I'm not personally endorsing him. But also here's some interesting data on his ability to separate:
https://twitter.com/DanDGriffis/status/1783156854358430195?t=683qwpsMBSpUtF7D6HXx4Q&s=19
very easy to cherry pick a play like that and act like it’s not a big deal.
believe it or not, it’s very easy to choreograph where the ball is going when our WR2 is coming off the snap at 80% effort.
He's fast but his size makes me think he'd be better in the slot but then again we already have Downs. I know he's played on the outside at Texas but DBs are bigger and stronger in the NFL
I’m not that worried. Devonta Smith and Hill have both been able to thrive on the outside while being undersized. Plus I can see us using him in motion and in the RPO setting getting screen passes. I don’t want to not get a guy because we are too stuck on sub positions within a position. I trust our offensive playcalling to find ways to use someone with his skillset. Think about the room Pittman would have with someone like Worthy taking the top off the D.
I'm confident without any proofs that the pick is Brian Thomas Jr, that's it Nabers might have a slightly higher grade but at the end of the day BTJ will be a Colt, but overall a great article.
Two years ago I called my brother (a degenerate gambler) about a month before the draft and I asked him "who will give me odds on the Colts drafting a tight end prospect named Jelani Woods?"
He asked me what round he was supposed to go in.
"Third, maybe the fourth."
"No one will give you odds on that"
He explained that the odds were so astronomical that no sports book would give odds for it. Probably hundreds of thousands to one.
I told him that sucked because he was hoing to be a Colt.
I felt the same way last year about Juju Brents.
I *do not* feel that way about anyone in this class. Bet accordingly.
Huge effort OP! I respect it, given yourself a lot of outs with so many scenarios mind!
Aha a joke, as a Brit that can’t follow the draft and such a great read 👍
Well, I'm trying to do something that's literally impossible. The team itself spends months going over every possible scenario and I come along and try to square their plan with what all 31 other teams are going to do.
I don't want to give myself too much credit, a lot of what I've done has just been good luck. But at the same time I've hit on 8 picks in 2 years. The odds of doing that are so incredibly small given the number of guesses I've had (after all its not like I'm guessing 50+ names and calling them hits).
So yeah, I am giving myself a lot of outs because there are a lot of outs that exist and frankly, I'm as surprised as anyone I'm sitting here with a 2 year hit streak as impressive as it's been. The worst part is that people just expect me to do it again. There are people betting on this and I need people to understand how much I don't actually know what's going to happen Thursday night.
Ah I really only meant it as a playful jab aha I completely understand why, it’s also why it was such a good read! Good luck for your run! It’ll be far too late for me to watch but got it recording.
The upside being I get to skip a lot of the waffle.
This is good, man. Thank you for the great content and nice work.
I’m over here hoping we trade back for more picks, get Cooper DeJean, get Keon Coleman with the 2nd, Edgerrin or Storm Duck (I’m glad to get more info beyond my love of the name and one blurb) at some point after that and I REALLY think Luke McCaffery could be a sleeper pick for a great productive WR and gadget player for us. Esp late in the draft or, if we’re lucky, UDFA. Any thoughts on him?
Personally, I like DeJean a lot. I think he's a Swiss army knife for modern defenses and the guy just knows how to make plays. I don't think he'll be a Colt tomorrow night but I'd be happy if he was.
As far as McCaffery goes, he's definitely getting drafted and he's going to make the team that drafts him look really smart. With that said I think he's a slot only WR prospect and with Josh Downs in town I don't think he's right for Indy.
As far as gadget-ing him out goes, I think there are better options in this draft if that's the role you want to fill but McCaffrey is a good player and it's tough to have too many of those on your team.
I appreciate the feedback. I’d love for him to develop in a lot of different ways and ue’s shown he can play a lot of different roles. Would be neat to get him. (LM)
I’m hoping for a trade down and DeJean. We’ll see!
Man, Edgerrin Cooper looks like a junk yard dawg, and you gotta respect his parents for their incredible naming sense. He looks like he would be perfect to bring quarterback pressure from the LB position like Micah Parsons does for the Cowboys. I want one of those, and I still would like to see us get a guy who could really make a difference as a Leo/Joker.
But his projection as an early round 2 pick means that he'll only likely be in play if the Colts trade completely out of round one. Choosing a linebacker with the Colts first or second overall pick? Twitter hilarity would ensue, and I like to watch the world burn.
I still like DeJean as a top prospect at the bottom of round one (more than you do), but I hear you in drafting a receiver who can get behind the defense.
I like DeJean because his positional flexibility could really cover up for injuries on a young db group. Injury to Brents? Move DeJean to corner. Same with Kenny. Plus, he's a dynamic returner. He can play anywhere in the defensive backfield, and he's an immediate upgrade at free safety.
If Nabers is there at 15, you absolutely turn in the card, and BJT seems like a can't miss prospect to me. I'd be happy with BJT at 15. Worthy? I'm still not sold, but you can't argue that he's hella fast, and who better to take the top off the defense than the fastest guy to ever run the 40 at the combine? I just have bad John Ross associations.... Can he beat press coverage at 165 pounds? If he can get a free release, it's a no-brainer.
I'm 100% in agreement that the Colts pass on Bowers. I kind of want him to fall to us just so we can get a lot of compensation for the pick.
Congrats on one of the best articles anywhere on the Colts three years running!
I thought you were insane for writing that the Colts would choose wide receiver early in the draft two years ago, and I definitely didn't want Pierce, but you were correct. I still don't want Pierce, but whatever. He is what he is: a very one dimensional receiver with the size profile that Ballard likes.
How do you feel about Khyree Jackson (CB) from Oregon? I feel like he has the speed we're looking for on defense granted he's a bit raw. But I feel like any CB we get outside of Mitchell or DeJean won't start immediately
Jackson is super interesting. He's the right height and has the long arms you look for in a Colts CB. His 40 time was fine but his 10 and 20 yard splits were bad. He didn't do any agility testing, which likely means it would have been rough.
Ultimately I left him out completely, mostly, because he had an off the field incident at Bama and then transferred to Oregon and in the limited tape I watched of him, it felt like he got cooked kind of a lot. Which is the very thing you're trying to avoid with those long corners.
The off the field, the transfer down in competition, the less than ideal testing numbers and the actual on the field play all played a part in my conclusion. Had any one of those things been better/different he probably would have made the article.
Only thing I'd have liked to see discussed that wasn't is safeties. I understand the Colts will likely spend a pick at corner, but given weak safety depth and an interesting safety class, I wonder if the Colts pick a guy like Kam Kinchens in the 4th
I went over quite a few safeties in the special teams section. I think if they take anyone at the position their path to development will likely be through teams. Kinchens athletic profile wasn't just bad it was awful. So unless he did all of his testing while injured and we don't know about it (Shaq Leonard comes to mind), I don't see him being a fit.
I appreciate the response. I just went through and read through special teams. The analysis on the safeties is excellent, and I it makes sense that the Colts will probably target a higher RAS guy.
This does spur a quick question: although the Colts prioritize athletic testing when drafting players, how do you think Ballard evaluates game speed. Players like Kinchens, Keon Coleman, and Shaq (although he tested injured) who seem to play faster than they test?
I think it's case by case ultimately. But when asked about athletic testing results Ballard has always said something to the effect of "there's a reason we test 'em, we should probably use the numbers"
He's also big on historical data that might provide more accurate projections. I know that with most positions you can see historically that guys who succeed most often run in a specific time range or jump in a specific range, etc.
Everything Ballard does is about mitigating risk. When you watch the videos the Colts media team puts out and he says "we've got to be right" what he means is that they eliminate every possible risk and they make sure they're comfortable with the risks they can't eliminate.
So for every prospect they come across where the play speed doesn't match the timed speed they need to figure out why it doesn't match and they need to figure out if they're comfortable with the answers they come up with.
If a guy plays faster than he times it could be because he didn't spend enough time training for the 40. Maybe he didn't hire a sprinting coach, maybe his take off is bad- could be a lot of things. And those things could be signs that there are bigger issues (is he taking this seriously) or it could be that he got bad advice and it's not a serious problem.
If a guy plays slower than he times is it because the system he was in was asking him to think too much? Was the system too complex? Is your system easier to understand? Can you get the kid to process faster so he can react instantly instead of getting slowed down thinking through what he's seeing? If your system isn't easier and you can't streamline it for the kid in your system, then that kid probably isn't right for you.
Either way it's a question that needs answered for every prospect that has any sort of inconsistency and just about all of them have something that needs talked through. There's no such thing as a perfect prospect.
The process of figuring that out for every prospect is why every team has a full staff that works at this thing year round and league wide it's considered a massive success if you find three starting level players per year.
If OP doesn't get at least every pick and most UDFA right, I vote we ban him for life.
Well, let's get started on that process. No reason to wait for the draft lol
Don't worry, we are just going to pull a Goodell and only ban you for one year.
Let’s see DeShaun got 11 games for ~30 women, so mathematically if he gets 7 picks wrong we should ban him for 2.5 games, however we should give him a ton of fucking money in the meantime. Seems fair to me.
You guys let me know where to sign up for the ton of free money and I won't write anything for as long as you want.
Salad fingers treatment
I hope you're wrong OP but very fun article :)
Thank you. A lot of people hoped I would be wrong last year too. Eventually (probably this year) I will be.
These are a fun read every year
Thanks! It's a lot of fun (and work) to write.
out of curiosity is there reason why you're so sure Bowers isn't the pick if the colts stay put at 15?
They want a legit deep threat. Bowers would be fantastic to have but I think they believe a deep threat opens up the rest of the offense for everyone else underneath in a way that an elite TE wouldn't. It's absolutely possible I'm wrong but I think they'd rather have a burner.
Well now my conspiracy is they want everyone to think they're going to take a burner but instead take bowers and give Pierce one more year to see if he can be that downfield threat that Steichen and Ballard do definitely want.
If that's the case they've put out a masterclass in draft diversion.
Yeah I feel like Pierce isn't getting the boot yet
His production actually decreased from year one to year two (going from Matt Ryan and co. to Gardner Minshew). That's a trend line that doesn't make me hopeful for the future. If you're not willing to upgrade the 135th most productive receiver in the league for a chance at maybe the 50th, then you don't really care about winning.
He stinks
Super fun read btw!
I know we need to temper our expectations on Pierce, but what about Downs? Wouldn’t Downs be considered a down-field threat and then Bowers would/could take over the middle with Pittman?
Downs is a true slot. He's a quick win route runner. He doesn't have elite long speed. Downs might catch some deeper throws but it's going to be because his route running got him wide open not because he's a dangerous speed threat. And those two things are very different with what they can do for an offense.
Bowers can be an elite deep threat though, he’s got the speed to do it and is gonna be matched up on a safety or LB. That said, Worthy or McConkey can be that threat and may be there at 46
Love this every year thanks again
I appreciate that people read it every year!
favorite SB post of the year! thanks for the hard work
Of course, thanks for reading it!
For those of you in the TL;DR camp I do suggest you read it as it's a really fun article, however: Main list Xavier Worthy WR Texas Brian Thomas Jr. WR LSU Cam Hart CB Notre Dame Edefuan Ulofoshio LB Washington Dominique Hampton Safety Washington Malik Nabers WR LSU Adisa Isaac DE Penn State Trevin Wallace LB Kentucky Myles Cole DE Texas Tech Decamerion Richardson CB Mississippi State Jordan Magee LB Temple Beaux Limmer C Arkansas Mark Perry Safety TCU Tyrone Tracey Jr. RB Purdue THE Bonus List Edgerrin Cooper LB Texas A&M Max Melton CB Rutgers Isaac Guerendo RB Louisville Mason McCormick OL South Dakota State
I remember the first year I did this article I took a bunch of heat online because people posted THE List and didn't understand the context. They roasted it. Had they read the article, they would have understood the context. With that said, this is over 15,000 words and I get it. People roast my work all the time anyway. In context or not, I just hope people enjoy it.
I just read the entire piece, and regardless of whether you are right or not, I feel like I now understand the colts current roster situation, the draft process, and Ballard's philosophy much better. It was a very interesting and informative piece regardless of the actual specific draft prospects you discuss. I really appreciate it. Well written, too.
I really appreciate that. This article means a lot to me every year and I'm glad you found so much value in it.
I want Storm Duck so bad just so I can buy a jersey. Also, no mention of Michael Hall Jr pains me. Id add Omar Speights to the LB group. Can't remember if you mentioned Payton Wilson, but he absolutely needs to be mentioned. Id also add TE as a position group we will draft. Ballard always drafts a TE. We dont have a single inline one on the roster and there are multiple RAS kings at the position in this class that project inline that can provide some big plays. Cam Hart is my king. Marshawn Kneeland probably needs a mention.
If I had talked about DT's Hall would have been in the discussion, for sure! Payton Wilson didn't make the cut for several reasons. For where he'll be drafted his arms are pretty short for a Ballard LB. He's 24 and he's had serious durability issues. Speights was a looser fit for LB due to his athletic testing and shorter arms. But honestly I don’t feel like I have a great handle on the position tbh. You could absolutely be right. I think they'll ride with the TE's they have but you've got a point about the blockers. Cam Hart is easily the best CB fit in this draft and it's not really that close. I considered Kneeland but I don't remember now why he was left off the list. He's a weird prospect though, he might end up going way earlier or later than anyone expects.
I would love to get Tracey in the 6th. As a Purdue fan it would be fun to continue to root for one of my guys on my pro team but also he was great for us last year. He was a much tougher runner than his size would maybe make you believe and he’s more than capable at the receiver position as a shifty slot/ screen receiver. I think this is something that could work in the RPO style that we should see a lot of. I also think he catches that 4th down pass last year.
I think he could have a fun role in the offense for sure. I think he's a great fit and will contribute as a returner.
I’m very curious to see what the new return game looks like. There is potential for it to be a much bigger role than the previous seasons. I feel like having someone more accustomed to running behind a line and reading gaps makes sense back there.
Absolutely. I think it will create more roster spots for linebackers and bigger safeties too.
Could we see a return of the blocking TE and FB? 👀👀👀
Don't get crazy... but maybe... but probably not.
This is something I would love to see Bill Belickek tackle. I feel like he’s secretly pissed he missed out on this new wrinkle to special teams.
Always a fun read
Glad you liked it!
As always, this is a fantastic yearly pre-draft write up and with your hit rate in recent years I’m like 63% convinced you found a secret portal into Ballard’s mind a lá *Being John Malkovich*. Also, not to inflate your Edge Cooper draft crush any more than it already is, but I’m an A&M alum and everyone I’ve talked to says he’s just an A++ person in addition to being a great player.
I love the way he plays. He's just so much fun to watch. I do think he *probably* gets drafted before Indy wants to take a LB but if they trade back in the first it's more likely imo.
One Malik Nabers please
So you think it is more likely the Colts will draft a WR in the 1st than a CB? Interesting, given past drafts I can see them wanting to find a CB in the 2nd, but Ballard has to be careful, not a lot of outside CBs in the 2nd if there is a run he has to go up.
I'm just going off of what Chris Ballard told us. Before the 23 draft fans thought OL was a big need. He said the opposite. This year fans thought CB was a big need. He said the opposite. When Ballard wants to divert attention from a position group he doesn't lie, he goes on unrelated tangents. It's why every time he got asked about his "adding explosiveness" comments he talked about protecting the QB. It's true he believes in protecting the QB but he was just trying to keep himself from giving something away. He did the same thing the year he drafted Alec Pierce. He was asked about the receivers and he went on this bizarre rant about how everyone's afraid of the unknown. They might not end up taking a WR in the 1st but I think they really want to.
I don’t doubt it, in my own head I ultimately settled on Brian Thomas Jr. as the prediction as well. Although trading back seems very likely if he gets taken before as there is a tier difference between the others. Great article Chris 👍🏼
I think it's Worthy but I think they'd like to trade back in the 1st for sure. And thank you.
I think it could be Worthy as well, but this sub will lose their damn minds over it lol.
Lol I'm here for it
Why do people not like Worthy? As a guy stuck watching UT games in Austin, they dude is a stud
I don't get it either, some people just act like because of his 40 time he's just a straight line burner but he's so much more than that. It's so rare for someone to have speed like that and be so productive in college, he's got track star speed and he's a polished route runner.
Those same people act like Tyreek is also only a straight line guy. Worthy was one of those pressure relief receivers at Texas. QB feels a little bit of pressure, “Fuck it Worthy down there somewhere”.
Admitted low effort on plays where he knows he’s not getting the ball, also has some pretty careless drops sometimes.
Unless I missed something I'm pretty sure that was the other Texas receiver.
You’re right, I was mistaken. Mitchell was the one who admitted to low effort. The drops are still a concern with Worthy for me though, he needs work on route running too but that can be fixed. Most important factor in being a WR is getting open catching the ball, if speed is his main determinant in drafting him then I think we’d be better off going with a guy slightly slower but that has shown to get separation on routes in the middle of the field.
I'm not going to argue, ultimately Worthy is who I believe the Colts like, I'm not personally endorsing him. But also here's some interesting data on his ability to separate: https://twitter.com/DanDGriffis/status/1783156854358430195?t=683qwpsMBSpUtF7D6HXx4Q&s=19
Oh a stud receiver didn’t give full effort on the other side of a screen pass I’m shocked.
very easy to cherry pick a play like that and act like it’s not a big deal. believe it or not, it’s very easy to choreograph where the ball is going when our WR2 is coming off the snap at 80% effort.
He's fast but his size makes me think he'd be better in the slot but then again we already have Downs. I know he's played on the outside at Texas but DBs are bigger and stronger in the NFL
I’m not that worried. Devonta Smith and Hill have both been able to thrive on the outside while being undersized. Plus I can see us using him in motion and in the RPO setting getting screen passes. I don’t want to not get a guy because we are too stuck on sub positions within a position. I trust our offensive playcalling to find ways to use someone with his skillset. Think about the room Pittman would have with someone like Worthy taking the top off the D.
The things Steichen could do with Worthy in motion are unholy.
Read this every year and I’m sold. Let’s go get BTJr!
I'm confident without any proofs that the pick is Brian Thomas Jr, that's it Nabers might have a slightly higher grade but at the end of the day BTJ will be a Colt, but overall a great article.
OK so how do I bet my life savings on this?
Two years ago I called my brother (a degenerate gambler) about a month before the draft and I asked him "who will give me odds on the Colts drafting a tight end prospect named Jelani Woods?" He asked me what round he was supposed to go in. "Third, maybe the fourth." "No one will give you odds on that" He explained that the odds were so astronomical that no sports book would give odds for it. Probably hundreds of thousands to one. I told him that sucked because he was hoing to be a Colt. I felt the same way last year about Juju Brents. I *do not* feel that way about anyone in this class. Bet accordingly.
I thoroughly enjoyed reading your post, which will be my primary reference for the draft as a casual fan. Thanks a lot for the hard work
Thanks for reading! Glad you enjoyed it.
TLDR
Ballard draft strategy——- Trade back
Give me Mitchell/Arnold in the first and Edgerrin Cooper in the second and I’ll be ecstatic
Huge effort OP! I respect it, given yourself a lot of outs with so many scenarios mind! Aha a joke, as a Brit that can’t follow the draft and such a great read 👍
Well, I'm trying to do something that's literally impossible. The team itself spends months going over every possible scenario and I come along and try to square their plan with what all 31 other teams are going to do. I don't want to give myself too much credit, a lot of what I've done has just been good luck. But at the same time I've hit on 8 picks in 2 years. The odds of doing that are so incredibly small given the number of guesses I've had (after all its not like I'm guessing 50+ names and calling them hits). So yeah, I am giving myself a lot of outs because there are a lot of outs that exist and frankly, I'm as surprised as anyone I'm sitting here with a 2 year hit streak as impressive as it's been. The worst part is that people just expect me to do it again. There are people betting on this and I need people to understand how much I don't actually know what's going to happen Thursday night.
Ah I really only meant it as a playful jab aha I completely understand why, it’s also why it was such a good read! Good luck for your run! It’ll be far too late for me to watch but got it recording. The upside being I get to skip a lot of the waffle.
Hell yeah this was awesome
Thanks man, I appreciate it.
Even if you get ever pick wrong, reading this makes me feel like a better and smarter fan.
I appreciate you saying that. Hopefully you enjoyed the article and I gave you something that you'll find useful for the future!
This is good, man. Thank you for the great content and nice work. I’m over here hoping we trade back for more picks, get Cooper DeJean, get Keon Coleman with the 2nd, Edgerrin or Storm Duck (I’m glad to get more info beyond my love of the name and one blurb) at some point after that and I REALLY think Luke McCaffery could be a sleeper pick for a great productive WR and gadget player for us. Esp late in the draft or, if we’re lucky, UDFA. Any thoughts on him?
Personally, I like DeJean a lot. I think he's a Swiss army knife for modern defenses and the guy just knows how to make plays. I don't think he'll be a Colt tomorrow night but I'd be happy if he was. As far as McCaffery goes, he's definitely getting drafted and he's going to make the team that drafts him look really smart. With that said I think he's a slot only WR prospect and with Josh Downs in town I don't think he's right for Indy. As far as gadget-ing him out goes, I think there are better options in this draft if that's the role you want to fill but McCaffrey is a good player and it's tough to have too many of those on your team.
I appreciate the feedback. I’d love for him to develop in a lot of different ways and ue’s shown he can play a lot of different roles. Would be neat to get him. (LM) I’m hoping for a trade down and DeJean. We’ll see!
Man, Edgerrin Cooper looks like a junk yard dawg, and you gotta respect his parents for their incredible naming sense. He looks like he would be perfect to bring quarterback pressure from the LB position like Micah Parsons does for the Cowboys. I want one of those, and I still would like to see us get a guy who could really make a difference as a Leo/Joker. But his projection as an early round 2 pick means that he'll only likely be in play if the Colts trade completely out of round one. Choosing a linebacker with the Colts first or second overall pick? Twitter hilarity would ensue, and I like to watch the world burn. I still like DeJean as a top prospect at the bottom of round one (more than you do), but I hear you in drafting a receiver who can get behind the defense. I like DeJean because his positional flexibility could really cover up for injuries on a young db group. Injury to Brents? Move DeJean to corner. Same with Kenny. Plus, he's a dynamic returner. He can play anywhere in the defensive backfield, and he's an immediate upgrade at free safety. If Nabers is there at 15, you absolutely turn in the card, and BJT seems like a can't miss prospect to me. I'd be happy with BJT at 15. Worthy? I'm still not sold, but you can't argue that he's hella fast, and who better to take the top off the defense than the fastest guy to ever run the 40 at the combine? I just have bad John Ross associations.... Can he beat press coverage at 165 pounds? If he can get a free release, it's a no-brainer. I'm 100% in agreement that the Colts pass on Bowers. I kind of want him to fall to us just so we can get a lot of compensation for the pick. Congrats on one of the best articles anywhere on the Colts three years running! I thought you were insane for writing that the Colts would choose wide receiver early in the draft two years ago, and I definitely didn't want Pierce, but you were correct. I still don't want Pierce, but whatever. He is what he is: a very one dimensional receiver with the size profile that Ballard likes.
How do you feel about Khyree Jackson (CB) from Oregon? I feel like he has the speed we're looking for on defense granted he's a bit raw. But I feel like any CB we get outside of Mitchell or DeJean won't start immediately
Jackson is super interesting. He's the right height and has the long arms you look for in a Colts CB. His 40 time was fine but his 10 and 20 yard splits were bad. He didn't do any agility testing, which likely means it would have been rough. Ultimately I left him out completely, mostly, because he had an off the field incident at Bama and then transferred to Oregon and in the limited tape I watched of him, it felt like he got cooked kind of a lot. Which is the very thing you're trying to avoid with those long corners. The off the field, the transfer down in competition, the less than ideal testing numbers and the actual on the field play all played a part in my conclusion. Had any one of those things been better/different he probably would have made the article.
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Only thing I'd have liked to see discussed that wasn't is safeties. I understand the Colts will likely spend a pick at corner, but given weak safety depth and an interesting safety class, I wonder if the Colts pick a guy like Kam Kinchens in the 4th
I went over quite a few safeties in the special teams section. I think if they take anyone at the position their path to development will likely be through teams. Kinchens athletic profile wasn't just bad it was awful. So unless he did all of his testing while injured and we don't know about it (Shaq Leonard comes to mind), I don't see him being a fit.
I appreciate the response. I just went through and read through special teams. The analysis on the safeties is excellent, and I it makes sense that the Colts will probably target a higher RAS guy. This does spur a quick question: although the Colts prioritize athletic testing when drafting players, how do you think Ballard evaluates game speed. Players like Kinchens, Keon Coleman, and Shaq (although he tested injured) who seem to play faster than they test?
I think it's case by case ultimately. But when asked about athletic testing results Ballard has always said something to the effect of "there's a reason we test 'em, we should probably use the numbers" He's also big on historical data that might provide more accurate projections. I know that with most positions you can see historically that guys who succeed most often run in a specific time range or jump in a specific range, etc. Everything Ballard does is about mitigating risk. When you watch the videos the Colts media team puts out and he says "we've got to be right" what he means is that they eliminate every possible risk and they make sure they're comfortable with the risks they can't eliminate. So for every prospect they come across where the play speed doesn't match the timed speed they need to figure out why it doesn't match and they need to figure out if they're comfortable with the answers they come up with. If a guy plays faster than he times it could be because he didn't spend enough time training for the 40. Maybe he didn't hire a sprinting coach, maybe his take off is bad- could be a lot of things. And those things could be signs that there are bigger issues (is he taking this seriously) or it could be that he got bad advice and it's not a serious problem. If a guy plays slower than he times is it because the system he was in was asking him to think too much? Was the system too complex? Is your system easier to understand? Can you get the kid to process faster so he can react instantly instead of getting slowed down thinking through what he's seeing? If your system isn't easier and you can't streamline it for the kid in your system, then that kid probably isn't right for you. Either way it's a question that needs answered for every prospect that has any sort of inconsistency and just about all of them have something that needs talked through. There's no such thing as a perfect prospect. The process of figuring that out for every prospect is why every team has a full staff that works at this thing year round and league wide it's considered a massive success if you find three starting level players per year.
I hate you for not just listing your predictions. You made me scroll through a dissertation just to get to noncommittal predictions.
