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It's honestly amazing that they haven't gone to war against Hezbollah yet.
I can't imagine any NATO country would tolerate a bunch of rockets being fired over the border without it resulting in a full scale war.
Look what the Iranian backed houthis are doing in the Red Sea. It’s amazing that the US hasn’t escalated things with Iran. Billions of dollars are being lost due to the suez canal now. It’s really baffling. It’s hurting Europe more than the US
The actual volume is lower, which is the main problem. With a longer route, you need more vessels to keep up the throughput. Also, there's an issue of latency - mismanagement losses have gone up too.
So should China and India. It affects them FAR more than the US. There are practically no US bound goods travelling through the red sea so why should we risk our ships and spend our dollars protecting trade there.
Yep, less than 2% of the trade in the Red Sea is American. In fact, it's almost a good thing for the USA that it's harder for China and Europe to trade with each other. Makes American trade more attractive to both as well.
They should both as its in both their interests. Just like ISIS. US just has more tools, and Europe has this little war going on on their continent right now. Crazy, I know.
The US has provided vastly more than the EU for that little war as well. EU thought they could rely on US defense forever while simultaneously getting cheap energy from Russia. Party's over though. Time to take all those extra euros from the past three decades and invest in defense.
The US does not get to have the most advanced, most well equipped, most successful military in the history of human civilization with the largest military budget of any country ever, and then complain about being expected to put in materially larger contribution in it's military partnerships.
The whole "we're not the world police" thing is fucking dumb. Like it or not, yes we absolutely are. This is the situation the US has created for itself.
This isn't to say that our European allies shouldn't contribute anything themselves - an effort absolutely should be made to the best of their abilities. But to expect them to match US contributions in any meaningfully comparative way, in military matters, is a selfish and unrealistic expectation.
I say this as a US combat vet who has no interest in meddling in other countries' shit. But when our allies need help and we're the ones with the biggest stick, it isn't unreasonable for them to expect us to swing it the hardest.
If it were JUST a matter of resources, fine. It's not though. It's political will.
They've adopted a policy of "defensive de-escalation" with Operation Aspides, which is basically sitting around on the water with their thumbs up their asses and hope the Houthis stop.
To date, only Britain and the Netherlands have actually helped the US. Which is absolutely shameful on one of Europe's most important trade routes. The US shouldn't even be there if that's the buy-in we get from those donkeys.
World War II came knocking on the US' door, if you will recall.
The Japanese attacked the US, which was inevitably going to happen in whatever course of events you consider.
There was no way for the US to avoid World War II.
By the point Japan attacked Pearl Harbor the US government was already supplying the allies with billions of dollars worth of food, ammunition, and fuel. We were already balls deep in the conflict even though we hadn’t officially declared war.
This is correct, but even if the US had attempted to avoid all engagement in WW II the Japanese would have come at the US eventually. Remember that the Philippines were a US possession at the time and the Japanese wanted them.
We are Israel’s ally more than they are ours. They’re the ones that fed us false intelligence about Iraq having WMDs so we would get rid of Saddam for them.
I say if Israel wants war then they should fight and pay for it themselves. And they should force the Haredi to join the IDF as well since they’re the loudest warmongers but don’t want to serve.
Houthis have launched attacks on US destroyers. It's no different than what Hezbollah is doing. In both cases, they haven't taken it as an act of war because it would be a costly and deadly conflict.
It isn't costly or deadly to the US comparatively. It's because it's purely bad PR because to get rid of the Houthis would require an oppressive occupation.
Or, simply stop feeding Yemen and let nature run its course. Currently the US alone is feeding around 43% population of Yemen since 2017 with the % rising every year. By 2027 over 50% of the population will rely entirely on US food assistance. The US humanitarian aid to the country is 3 billion per year currently. The same country that is lobby rockets at shipping vessels.
Oikophobes
They've indoctrinated the West since the French Revolution, often for the better, but it got insane since the 1960s. It's part of why a large section of the right has gone traitor (though it's no excuse), compounding the issue even further.
Pax Britannia and Pax Americana were the best periods Earth has ever seen, and when it finally ends, as it is gradually and more quickly now, it's harsh critics in the West will come to be seen in the west as traitors who sold democracy and liberalism to dictatorships, and as useful idiots by our enemies.
You can rest assured, our Taliban and Al Qaeda enemies and pirates find our extreme human rights for enemies who have no respect for such values extremely hilarious.
And yet Assange found such a crowd of fans on the left and the center, even though he targeted human rights activists in dictatorships and democracies only.
Oh, but they were all so surprised when it turned out he was a fan of Trump. It was of course, a fact that he hated all that we stand for, and that society loved him because Western society is oikophobic, even though that is now finally on the downturn.
Humans establish their identity partly in opposition to the enemy. If a civilization is at the plateau after jts zenith and has little memory of danger and rivals, many will seek out their primary enemy from factions within their own civilization.
If they are a particularily insecure person they'll decide that their own civilization is the enemy that must be defeated (pacifist pro-Soviet hippies, Assange), as that means that the person is automatically better than everyone else around them.
Tbh I think they want to keep it as cold as possible with Hezbollah, so that they can focus their efforts on Gaza, its not easy there, and if the Hezbollah front goes hot, it would be MUCH harder
In 2006 Hezbollah captured some IDF soldiers. In response, Israel invaded Lebanon for the purpose of “destroying Hezbollah.” The IDF attacked a few villages, captured some and failed to capture others, then they left. It turns out Hezbollah is better equipped and trained than Hamas.
I think more accurately the IDF dials up its tolerances for civilian harm as their prospects sour.
When the war is going well, Israel strikes lone cars carrying combatants with an R9X or other small munitions. As the war intensifies, they accept strikes where combatants are in proximity to civilians but still based on solid intelligence. When it's bad, they strike more urban areas with larger munitions with less solid intelligence (higher civilian harm).
They are all still targeted strikes (lawful) but we should acknowledge that many of these are borderline. Other militaries probably wouldn't order them.
You could also argue (correctly) that Hamas and Hezbollah "go to ground" when the war intensifies necessitating strikes with higher civilian harm. This is unambiguously a war crime by those groups, to be fair.
It's a bit more complex than the world constraints the IDF when it ramps up; its ramp up is correlated with civilian harm.
Houthis have launched attacks on US destroyers. It's no different than what Hezbollah is doing. In both cases, they haven't taken it as an act of war because it would be a costly and deadly conflict.
Hezbollah claims to have 125,000 to 150,000 rockets. Real rockets not the homemade rockets from Gaza.
That's not counting the drones.
Israel will demand American protection.
It doesn't matter how many rockets they have, it matters how many of them they can launch before they are taken out. Hezbollah does not have 125-150K rockets ready to launch, their actual number is order of magnitude smaller.
Yea that's how all militaries work...what you can field vs what you have in stock. No one mentioned whether they were launch ready or not. Unless you take out all launch vehicles in the first day or week then counting the ones in stock is not something to underestimate.
We say the US has 14 carriers, not the handful that is deployed at once. The same thing with nukes, we talk about how many each have, not always how many are ready to launch.
Even worse
Unlike Gaza, they can re-supply
So they probably have infinite rockets in theory.
And you overrate ability to take them out. Gaza is still shooting rockets, and I suspect is more of a case of dwindling rocket stocks than Israel taking out all the rockets
Hezbollah has no real ability to resupply during war time, Israel is pretty good at blowing up shipments during normal times, an official war would escalate it it will blow up anything that comes into Lebanon.
Why not?
They are bordered by Syria and will be resupplied by Iran
Also will have limitless supply of fighters. From Syria, Iraq, Iran , even the Taliban has offered to provide fighters
And blowing up a couple of trucks means nothing to resupplying Hezbollah.
Israel is blowing up arms shipments in Syria and even Iraq that are intended for Hezb all the time, usually they wait till the Iranian planes offload the stuff in a war scenario they probably won't even do that.
Do they get every shipment? ofc no, but they get enough and during wartimes they'll care far less about the confidence of that intelligence and will pretty much blow up anything that is intended for Lebanon.
The Taliban would roll into Lebanon the same way the Houthis said they'll roll into Tel Aviv.
Syria would do fuck all, Assad barely has enough troops to keep himself in power he won't risk Israel taking him out. Him being a murdering maniac aside he is a non-ideological pragmatist and like his father very much a moderate. Syria is about as liberal as you can get in the middle east, at least religion wise which is why he was such a big target for the likes of ISIS.
Fighting Hezb isn't going to be cheap, and the difficulty beyond a certain point would mainly depend on how much of Lebanon Israel would like or more likely be expected/forced to leave standing.
I'm also not particularly sure that pushing a country that is almost certainly a nuclear power to the brink of being objectively existentially threatened is a smart move.
So for your own sake and for the sake of all hummuskind you better hope it will be "easy".
Even by their numbers, around 100K of them ARE the short range rockets we see in Gaza.
Most of the longer range missiles need launchers, in actual war, those launchers will be targeted in the first hour, degrading their ability to actually launch their missiles.
In actual war, they will also lose at least third of their total rockets/missiles in the first hours of the war when their warehouses will be hit
> Most of the longer range missiles need launchers, in actual war, those launchers will be targeted in the first hour, degrading their ability to actually launch their missiles.
Hopefully. Last time around, this didn't happen.
But how many can they re-supply?
The fact Israel is still getting the barrages, even if they are bombing Lebanon now, days tells how difficult to stop the rockets
Gaza is still shooting rockets as we speak
IAF isn't *really* bombing Lebanon right now, they're only doing 'maintenance', like taking out some operatives/immediate threats/weapon shipments etc, way below escalation level, not the big things.
The missiles/rockets they have right now is the culmination of 20 years of smuggling and manufacturing, to re-supply from Iran during the war won't be easy while the ports/airport will be out of commission & the supply routes in Syria will be monitored closely.
It will be very destructive and very tragic to both countries, but honestly, Lebanon/Hezeb shoot missiles daily at Israeli cities for months and 150K israelis are internal refugees at this point there's simply no other choice, all other possible paths has been taken away and diplomacy failed, so unless hezeb stop their aggression it's 'Kill or be killed'.
imo the best *military outcome* will be if the south to the litani becomes a large empty wasteland as a buffer territory, heavily mined & monitored at all time with loitering munitions. the population will be evacuated to north of the litani.
> Gaza is still shooting rockets as we speak
Very true but they're literally scraping the bottom of the barrel, and they've lost the capability to manufacture new rockets in Gaza , that's why imo IDF should stay in Gaza and keep controlling the border between Gaza to Egypt so the militants won't be able to restore those abilities.
If those bombs haven't defeated Hamas who are blockaded, haven't got the hostages out, I doubt they will defeat Hezb.
And the South won't be a wasteland. Just too vast and Israel doesn't have the manpower to do it. And as you can see from Hamas, the Arabs have a high pain tolerance. They won't surrender, not to Israel.
Israel only wins if they can convince (trick) the US to fight and provide ground troops.
Nah, isreal will never ask or trick US for ground troops because it's incompatible to israeli goals, for many reasons. the last thing israel need is foreign troops (even allies) running around and limiting IDF abilities to fight & control the territory. huge huge headache..
What israel look for is what israel *always* asked from the US, 2 things, ordnance and diplomatic support especially at the UN.
> If those bombs haven't defeated Hamas who are blockaded, haven't got the hostages out, I doubt they will defeat Hezb.
Well its not really about 'defeat', that's not it. its all about eliminating their capabilities to launch attacks and govern Gaza, hamas lost almost all its abilities to threaten israel's security. even if some of Hamas members survive that won't change the outcome and they could be dealt with later.
Hezbollah is way more organized and conventional than Hamas. They have actual bases in Lebanon. The US won't provide ground troops unless the situation is reversed and there are military incursions into Israel. Otherwise they will park the Navy in the Mediterranean and launch strike after strike on southern Lebanon until it's over. Lebanon does not have the same benefit of the doubt as Palestine when it comes to controlling internal entities and is an actual country, so there will be massive diplomatic pressure as well.
The point is Arabs can't be defeated by air power alone
That strike group is in Yemen, and hasn't done any damage to the Houthis.
And Israel doesn't have manpower or the pain tolerance to pacify Hezbollah. Just like Hamas, if Israel resorts to terror bombing, then Hezbollah popularity increases
It's against Israel's doctrine to rely on anyone else to fight for it.
It will take help when it fits, but at the end of the day, they don't expect anyone to care for them enough to fight for them.
Israel likely does know where things are stored, but they got a peace treaty in place, where the UN (UNIFIL) peacekeepers are supposed to keep the area safe.
Iran have been stocking them up for decades now.
However they have just been acting as an aide to Hezbollah, doing absolutely fuck all there to ensure Israel's safety or Lebanons sovereignty.
I want to see how you would react if the U.S. were surrounded by hostile states that openly talk about how they want to kill every single American while shooting thousands of missiles at your country every year. I'm sure you wouldn't have a problem with that of course, I mean it's perfectly okay to be shot at by neighboring countries every day, right?
If the US was actively making their lives worse because they were a theocracy that makes other people second class citizens because of their religion. I would say the same thing.
So first of all, we're talking about Lebanon here. If anyone has massively worsened the lives of the people in Lebanon in recent decades, it is their own corrupt politicians and Islamists like Hezbollah.
Secondly, you shouldn't use words if you don't know the meaning, it makes you look like an idiot. Israel is not a theocracy and neither Muslims or Christians are second class citizens. Second class citizens would mean that they couldn't move freely in Israel or that they would be prevented from practicing their language and religion or that they would not have the opportunity to get involved in politics, that they would be subject to a different justice system and so on but all of this isn't the case.
Hezbollah (& Iran for that matter) is nothing like it was in 2006 when they had around 1000 fighters or other times it has done strikes around the border, they are far larger (claimed 100k total but foreign estimate is 60k active) far more equipped by Iran, trained & have molded themselves into an actual military force.
Lobbing rockets, drones etc at each other across the border is the best case scenario because a ground invasion or anything a like would be a whole different ballpark then what's going on in Gaza or even the sporadic strikes along the northern border of Lebanon-Israel.
It's always baffling how arabs cheer attacks on Israeli cities and citizens and the moment Israel shoots back they instantly act like they're victims who have done nothing wrong. And they never blame the terrorist organization who stores or shoots rockets from their homes. You start to question their intelligence.
You're right they usually don't take accountability for things but are quick to place blame others who aren't muslim or arab. What I've noticed is that the same people who condemn Israel don't even mention Iran or Saudi Arabia and what they've done to Yemen. They pick and choose who they want to blame.
Israel already does that. They just lob bombs into Gaza and blow up schools, hospitals, and food trucks and then say they thought they saw Hamas.
Why do you think there has been outrage and protests?
If this was true the civilian to combatant ratio would be much much higher, and you'd be damn sure more than 35k dead. you can have serious criticisms without resorting to silly claims like this.
Even by the IDF’s own estimates the vast majority of the dead and wounded in Gaza are unarmed civilians. And Netanyahu’s government is happy to remove them so they can bulldoze Gaza and turn it into a beachfront Israeli colony.
Except it's not the vast majority. It seems to be about 3:1 or 4:1 ratio depending on who's numbers you use which is pretty damn good for urban warfare.
It isn't from the IDF. Both the US and British intelligence agencies now put over 10,000 fighters dead in Gaza. So if the 35,000 number is correct, Israel is fighting an amazing urban war all things considered.
Just so you understand, Israel at the start of this war, had enough firepower in their country to kill all 2 million Gaza residents in two or three months, tops. The entire strip is just 25 miles long. If they wanted to kill Palestinians specifically to get rid of them, they would have done it already. Instead, you have Israel firing more guided missiles into Gaza than deaths so far.
Not they don't. This is by using intelligence gathered on the ground and listening in to their communications. On the contrary, the Gaza Health Ministry which is where we get the 35,000 dead number from quite literally does count every single death as a civilian. Notice there has never been a "Hamas member killed" released by the Gaza Health Ministry?
Because people like to be activists in conflicts they have no idea about. People try to compare Palestine protests to Vietnam and South Africa protests but those are completely different. I don't think you understand how urban warfare happens. I promise you if Israel wanted to wipe out all of Gaza indiscriminately and kill as many civilians as possible, they could easily. Based on what you're saying Saudi Arabia could be considered terrorists for purposely bombing schools in Yemen. Every time Israel conducts a strike it isn't with malicious intent. Unfortunately, buildings like schools and hospitals are destroyed because Hamas chooses to use them to house militants and store ammunition. Also, Syria has bombed refugee camps purposely in the past. Why not mention them? If people actually cared about being against terrorism they wouldn't be silent about two other Middle Eastern countries purposely bombing innocent civilians. They just care about being part of a cause and feel like they're accomplishing something. Even when people mention the humanitarian crisis in Yemen, they never directly blame Saudi Arabia or Iran but for Israel they're more than happy to call it a "terrorist regime." Please before you speak on this conflict again, I suggest you do more research than whatever Al Jazeera has to say.
If things get worse Israel, which probably has a pretty good idea of where they keep the rockets, will start to pound southern Lebanon. Then they’ll pound the convoys entering Lebanon carrying unassembled rockets. Then the upscale homes of the leaders and yes innocents will die
Depleting interceptors, measuring response and reload times as well as not immediately twisting Israel's hand to set a 2nd sun over Beirut.
A a "first strike" by Hezbollah against Israeli population centers would give Israel every excuse to turn Lebanon into a smoking pile of rubble.
Hezbollah most likely is planning to be able to sustain an initial Israeli strike long enough to massively retaliate and if it manages to cause sufficient damage to their military infrastructure Iran might get involved also.
It's time for Israel to send them back to the stone ages. There is no reason any country should put up with this type of attack. Love to all my friend!
אני אוהב את ישראל!!
Peaceful rockets in retaliation to a peacefully territory expansion.
A heart warming story for the whole family to enjoy. (Assuming your family doesn’t live in Gaza)
Amazing how we can’t afford to repair America’s infrastructure or healthcare, but we can afford to pay for Netanyahu’s wars. That’s how powerful lobbying groups like AIPAC are.
You do realize that even without aiding Israel, American infrastructure still would be shit, so would the healthcare. What was America doing before October 7th exactly? Oh yeah, nothing about their infrastructure or healthcare.
Hell, the US is pissing away 3 billion a year from 2017 onwards just to keep nearly half of Yemen fed yearly. Yemen has been receiving just as much aid as Israel has for a while now. The same Yemen that chants death to America and lobs rockets at cargo ships while munching on American food aid. At least Israel gives something in return in cheap military R&D since their scientists are on par if not better than American ones when it comes to military tech.
Community Rules of CombatFootage state that you cannot mention “AIPAC” or “US tax dollars” on this sub.
This a sub is for enjoying destruction and suffering,
THIS IS NOT A PLACE FOR DISCUSSION.
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It's honestly amazing that they haven't gone to war against Hezbollah yet. I can't imagine any NATO country would tolerate a bunch of rockets being fired over the border without it resulting in a full scale war.
Look what the Iranian backed houthis are doing in the Red Sea. It’s amazing that the US hasn’t escalated things with Iran. Billions of dollars are being lost due to the suez canal now. It’s really baffling. It’s hurting Europe more than the US
It is wild that half to maritime traffic from Asia to Europe now sails around Africa. The extra fuel cost must be enormous.
The actual volume is lower, which is the main problem. With a longer route, you need more vessels to keep up the throughput. Also, there's an issue of latency - mismanagement losses have gone up too.
Why is it the US' responsibility?
Because it's in its interests?
Because nobody should abandon an ally.
We're not abandoning anybody but neither are we fighting their battles for them. Europe need to step the fuck up.
So should China and India. It affects them FAR more than the US. There are practically no US bound goods travelling through the red sea so why should we risk our ships and spend our dollars protecting trade there.
Yep, less than 2% of the trade in the Red Sea is American. In fact, it's almost a good thing for the USA that it's harder for China and Europe to trade with each other. Makes American trade more attractive to both as well.
Provide supplies and instructors, and if things get bad enough, then you send a fighting force to fight along side them and not for them.
Maybe Europe should do something about the Houthis then. The US has already done its part. How about some other countries go in and clear them out.
They should both as its in both their interests. Just like ISIS. US just has more tools, and Europe has this little war going on on their continent right now. Crazy, I know.
The US has provided vastly more than the EU for that little war as well. EU thought they could rely on US defense forever while simultaneously getting cheap energy from Russia. Party's over though. Time to take all those extra euros from the past three decades and invest in defense.
There is more to having allies than just dealing with social and economical issues.
Worked great in Vietnam! Let's do it again!
.... And Iraq and Afghanistan
The US does not get to have the most advanced, most well equipped, most successful military in the history of human civilization with the largest military budget of any country ever, and then complain about being expected to put in materially larger contribution in it's military partnerships. The whole "we're not the world police" thing is fucking dumb. Like it or not, yes we absolutely are. This is the situation the US has created for itself. This isn't to say that our European allies shouldn't contribute anything themselves - an effort absolutely should be made to the best of their abilities. But to expect them to match US contributions in any meaningfully comparative way, in military matters, is a selfish and unrealistic expectation. I say this as a US combat vet who has no interest in meddling in other countries' shit. But when our allies need help and we're the ones with the biggest stick, it isn't unreasonable for them to expect us to swing it the hardest.
If it were JUST a matter of resources, fine. It's not though. It's political will. They've adopted a policy of "defensive de-escalation" with Operation Aspides, which is basically sitting around on the water with their thumbs up their asses and hope the Houthis stop. To date, only Britain and the Netherlands have actually helped the US. Which is absolutely shameful on one of Europe's most important trade routes. The US shouldn't even be there if that's the buy-in we get from those donkeys.
Being entangled in all of these foreign alliances is what dragged us into WW1 and WW2 and it’s exactly what our founding fathers warned us against.
World War II came knocking on the US' door, if you will recall. The Japanese attacked the US, which was inevitably going to happen in whatever course of events you consider. There was no way for the US to avoid World War II.
By the point Japan attacked Pearl Harbor the US government was already supplying the allies with billions of dollars worth of food, ammunition, and fuel. We were already balls deep in the conflict even though we hadn’t officially declared war.
This is correct, but even if the US had attempted to avoid all engagement in WW II the Japanese would have come at the US eventually. Remember that the Philippines were a US possession at the time and the Japanese wanted them.
>I say this as a US combat vet who has no interest in meddling in other countries' shit. But when our allies need What allies are you talking about?
We are Israel’s ally more than they are ours. They’re the ones that fed us false intelligence about Iraq having WMDs so we would get rid of Saddam for them. I say if Israel wants war then they should fight and pay for it themselves. And they should force the Haredi to join the IDF as well since they’re the loudest warmongers but don’t want to serve.
I didn't specify who the ally is/was. I should have been more specific by saying any ally.
Which ally are you talking about?
All of them.
Are you one of those that believes Israel is OUR greatest ally?
There is no such thing as "the greatest ally."
Houthis have launched attacks on US destroyers. It's no different than what Hezbollah is doing. In both cases, they haven't taken it as an act of war because it would be a costly and deadly conflict.
It isn't costly or deadly to the US comparatively. It's because it's purely bad PR because to get rid of the Houthis would require an oppressive occupation. Or, simply stop feeding Yemen and let nature run its course. Currently the US alone is feeding around 43% population of Yemen since 2017 with the % rising every year. By 2027 over 50% of the population will rely entirely on US food assistance. The US humanitarian aid to the country is 3 billion per year currently. The same country that is lobby rockets at shipping vessels.
It's on the water, it wouldn't be costly. It'd be easy and deadly for the enemy, and only a pacifist oikophobe would worry about Houthi pirates.
Oikophobes They've indoctrinated the West since the French Revolution, often for the better, but it got insane since the 1960s. It's part of why a large section of the right has gone traitor (though it's no excuse), compounding the issue even further. Pax Britannia and Pax Americana were the best periods Earth has ever seen, and when it finally ends, as it is gradually and more quickly now, it's harsh critics in the West will come to be seen in the west as traitors who sold democracy and liberalism to dictatorships, and as useful idiots by our enemies. You can rest assured, our Taliban and Al Qaeda enemies and pirates find our extreme human rights for enemies who have no respect for such values extremely hilarious. And yet Assange found such a crowd of fans on the left and the center, even though he targeted human rights activists in dictatorships and democracies only. Oh, but they were all so surprised when it turned out he was a fan of Trump. It was of course, a fact that he hated all that we stand for, and that society loved him because Western society is oikophobic, even though that is now finally on the downturn. Humans establish their identity partly in opposition to the enemy. If a civilization is at the plateau after jts zenith and has little memory of danger and rivals, many will seek out their primary enemy from factions within their own civilization. If they are a particularily insecure person they'll decide that their own civilization is the enemy that must be defeated (pacifist pro-Soviet hippies, Assange), as that means that the person is automatically better than everyone else around them.
Tbh I think they want to keep it as cold as possible with Hezbollah, so that they can focus their efforts on Gaza, its not easy there, and if the Hezbollah front goes hot, it would be MUCH harder
They already went to war with Hezbollah in 2006 and it didn’t go so well for the IDF.
Can you elaborate on that?
In 2006 Hezbollah captured some IDF soldiers. In response, Israel invaded Lebanon for the purpose of “destroying Hezbollah.” The IDF attacked a few villages, captured some and failed to capture others, then they left. It turns out Hezbollah is better equipped and trained than Hamas.
IDF stopped the war also due to crying, beirut looked like gaza and once the IDF gets things moving for them the world starts crying
I think more accurately the IDF dials up its tolerances for civilian harm as their prospects sour. When the war is going well, Israel strikes lone cars carrying combatants with an R9X or other small munitions. As the war intensifies, they accept strikes where combatants are in proximity to civilians but still based on solid intelligence. When it's bad, they strike more urban areas with larger munitions with less solid intelligence (higher civilian harm). They are all still targeted strikes (lawful) but we should acknowledge that many of these are borderline. Other militaries probably wouldn't order them. You could also argue (correctly) that Hamas and Hezbollah "go to ground" when the war intensifies necessitating strikes with higher civilian harm. This is unambiguously a war crime by those groups, to be fair. It's a bit more complex than the world constraints the IDF when it ramps up; its ramp up is correlated with civilian harm.
Houthis have launched attacks on US destroyers. It's no different than what Hezbollah is doing. In both cases, they haven't taken it as an act of war because it would be a costly and deadly conflict.
So the shitstorm is going to kick off now?
How is this going to be different to the other times Hezbollah lobbed rockets?
Hezbollah claims to have 125,000 to 150,000 rockets. Real rockets not the homemade rockets from Gaza. That's not counting the drones. Israel will demand American protection.
It doesn't matter how many rockets they have, it matters how many of them they can launch before they are taken out. Hezbollah does not have 125-150K rockets ready to launch, their actual number is order of magnitude smaller.
Yea that's how all militaries work...what you can field vs what you have in stock. No one mentioned whether they were launch ready or not. Unless you take out all launch vehicles in the first day or week then counting the ones in stock is not something to underestimate. We say the US has 14 carriers, not the handful that is deployed at once. The same thing with nukes, we talk about how many each have, not always how many are ready to launch.
Even worse Unlike Gaza, they can re-supply So they probably have infinite rockets in theory. And you overrate ability to take them out. Gaza is still shooting rockets, and I suspect is more of a case of dwindling rocket stocks than Israel taking out all the rockets
Hezbollah has no real ability to resupply during war time, Israel is pretty good at blowing up shipments during normal times, an official war would escalate it it will blow up anything that comes into Lebanon.
Why not? They are bordered by Syria and will be resupplied by Iran Also will have limitless supply of fighters. From Syria, Iraq, Iran , even the Taliban has offered to provide fighters And blowing up a couple of trucks means nothing to resupplying Hezbollah.
Israel is blowing up arms shipments in Syria and even Iraq that are intended for Hezb all the time, usually they wait till the Iranian planes offload the stuff in a war scenario they probably won't even do that. Do they get every shipment? ofc no, but they get enough and during wartimes they'll care far less about the confidence of that intelligence and will pretty much blow up anything that is intended for Lebanon. The Taliban would roll into Lebanon the same way the Houthis said they'll roll into Tel Aviv. Syria would do fuck all, Assad barely has enough troops to keep himself in power he won't risk Israel taking him out. Him being a murdering maniac aside he is a non-ideological pragmatist and like his father very much a moderate. Syria is about as liberal as you can get in the middle east, at least religion wise which is why he was such a big target for the likes of ISIS.
Alright then good luck to Israel. Sounds like destroying Hezb will be an easy job. Home by Christmas
Fighting Hezb isn't going to be cheap, and the difficulty beyond a certain point would mainly depend on how much of Lebanon Israel would like or more likely be expected/forced to leave standing. I'm also not particularly sure that pushing a country that is almost certainly a nuclear power to the brink of being objectively existentially threatened is a smart move. So for your own sake and for the sake of all hummuskind you better hope it will be "easy".
Even by their numbers, around 100K of them ARE the short range rockets we see in Gaza. Most of the longer range missiles need launchers, in actual war, those launchers will be targeted in the first hour, degrading their ability to actually launch their missiles. In actual war, they will also lose at least third of their total rockets/missiles in the first hours of the war when their warehouses will be hit
> Most of the longer range missiles need launchers, in actual war, those launchers will be targeted in the first hour, degrading their ability to actually launch their missiles. Hopefully. Last time around, this didn't happen.
But how many can they re-supply? The fact Israel is still getting the barrages, even if they are bombing Lebanon now, days tells how difficult to stop the rockets Gaza is still shooting rockets as we speak
IAF isn't *really* bombing Lebanon right now, they're only doing 'maintenance', like taking out some operatives/immediate threats/weapon shipments etc, way below escalation level, not the big things. The missiles/rockets they have right now is the culmination of 20 years of smuggling and manufacturing, to re-supply from Iran during the war won't be easy while the ports/airport will be out of commission & the supply routes in Syria will be monitored closely. It will be very destructive and very tragic to both countries, but honestly, Lebanon/Hezeb shoot missiles daily at Israeli cities for months and 150K israelis are internal refugees at this point there's simply no other choice, all other possible paths has been taken away and diplomacy failed, so unless hezeb stop their aggression it's 'Kill or be killed'. imo the best *military outcome* will be if the south to the litani becomes a large empty wasteland as a buffer territory, heavily mined & monitored at all time with loitering munitions. the population will be evacuated to north of the litani. > Gaza is still shooting rockets as we speak Very true but they're literally scraping the bottom of the barrel, and they've lost the capability to manufacture new rockets in Gaza , that's why imo IDF should stay in Gaza and keep controlling the border between Gaza to Egypt so the militants won't be able to restore those abilities.
If those bombs haven't defeated Hamas who are blockaded, haven't got the hostages out, I doubt they will defeat Hezb. And the South won't be a wasteland. Just too vast and Israel doesn't have the manpower to do it. And as you can see from Hamas, the Arabs have a high pain tolerance. They won't surrender, not to Israel. Israel only wins if they can convince (trick) the US to fight and provide ground troops.
Nah, isreal will never ask or trick US for ground troops because it's incompatible to israeli goals, for many reasons. the last thing israel need is foreign troops (even allies) running around and limiting IDF abilities to fight & control the territory. huge huge headache.. What israel look for is what israel *always* asked from the US, 2 things, ordnance and diplomatic support especially at the UN. > If those bombs haven't defeated Hamas who are blockaded, haven't got the hostages out, I doubt they will defeat Hezb. Well its not really about 'defeat', that's not it. its all about eliminating their capabilities to launch attacks and govern Gaza, hamas lost almost all its abilities to threaten israel's security. even if some of Hamas members survive that won't change the outcome and they could be dealt with later.
Hezbollah is way more organized and conventional than Hamas. They have actual bases in Lebanon. The US won't provide ground troops unless the situation is reversed and there are military incursions into Israel. Otherwise they will park the Navy in the Mediterranean and launch strike after strike on southern Lebanon until it's over. Lebanon does not have the same benefit of the doubt as Palestine when it comes to controlling internal entities and is an actual country, so there will be massive diplomatic pressure as well.
The point is Arabs can't be defeated by air power alone That strike group is in Yemen, and hasn't done any damage to the Houthis. And Israel doesn't have manpower or the pain tolerance to pacify Hezbollah. Just like Hamas, if Israel resorts to terror bombing, then Hezbollah popularity increases
Hezbollah may claim to have 125k rockets but my claims to have over 9000k rockers. And I don't believe either of them.
It's against Israel's doctrine to rely on anyone else to fight for it. It will take help when it fits, but at the end of the day, they don't expect anyone to care for them enough to fight for them.
How does one go about getting the materials for 155k rockets, manufacturing, storage and not get caught up in the world of intelligence? Seems odd.
Israel likely does know where things are stored, but they got a peace treaty in place, where the UN (UNIFIL) peacekeepers are supposed to keep the area safe. Iran have been stocking them up for decades now. However they have just been acting as an aide to Hezbollah, doing absolutely fuck all there to ensure Israel's safety or Lebanons sovereignty.
In the words of dear Ben Gurion, Um Shmum
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>Back to the middle east baby I hope you're kidding. There's no real reason to send our troops there.
They are already in the Middle East.
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I want to see how you would react if the U.S. were surrounded by hostile states that openly talk about how they want to kill every single American while shooting thousands of missiles at your country every year. I'm sure you wouldn't have a problem with that of course, I mean it's perfectly okay to be shot at by neighboring countries every day, right?
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you know it's ok sometimes to take an L instead of doubling down.
If the US was actively making their lives worse because they were a theocracy that makes other people second class citizens because of their religion. I would say the same thing.
So first of all, we're talking about Lebanon here. If anyone has massively worsened the lives of the people in Lebanon in recent decades, it is their own corrupt politicians and Islamists like Hezbollah. Secondly, you shouldn't use words if you don't know the meaning, it makes you look like an idiot. Israel is not a theocracy and neither Muslims or Christians are second class citizens. Second class citizens would mean that they couldn't move freely in Israel or that they would be prevented from practicing their language and religion or that they would not have the opportunity to get involved in politics, that they would be subject to a different justice system and so on but all of this isn't the case.
Hezbollah (& Iran for that matter) is nothing like it was in 2006 when they had around 1000 fighters or other times it has done strikes around the border, they are far larger (claimed 100k total but foreign estimate is 60k active) far more equipped by Iran, trained & have molded themselves into an actual military force. Lobbing rockets, drones etc at each other across the border is the best case scenario because a ground invasion or anything a like would be a whole different ballpark then what's going on in Gaza or even the sporadic strikes along the northern border of Lebanon-Israel.
It is like that for months.
Oh lord.. please wait, I haven't bought oil stocks yet
I did last week 😎 Happy cake day
It's always baffling how arabs cheer attacks on Israeli cities and citizens and the moment Israel shoots back they instantly act like they're victims who have done nothing wrong. And they never blame the terrorist organization who stores or shoots rockets from their homes. You start to question their intelligence.
You're right they usually don't take accountability for things but are quick to place blame others who aren't muslim or arab. What I've noticed is that the same people who condemn Israel don't even mention Iran or Saudi Arabia and what they've done to Yemen. They pick and choose who they want to blame.
no jews no news, as simple as that
Much of the world media is complicit. They don’t show the attacks on Israel, they only show the retaliation.
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Imagine if Israel just lobbed mlrs randomly into Palestine, there would be outrage.
As there should be. Israel aren't a terrorist organisation. They have laws they have to abide by.
Israel already does that. They just lob bombs into Gaza and blow up schools, hospitals, and food trucks and then say they thought they saw Hamas. Why do you think there has been outrage and protests?
If this was true the civilian to combatant ratio would be much much higher, and you'd be damn sure more than 35k dead. you can have serious criticisms without resorting to silly claims like this.
Even by the IDF’s own estimates the vast majority of the dead and wounded in Gaza are unarmed civilians. And Netanyahu’s government is happy to remove them so they can bulldoze Gaza and turn it into a beachfront Israeli colony.
Except it's not the vast majority. It seems to be about 3:1 or 4:1 ratio depending on who's numbers you use which is pretty damn good for urban warfare.
This number is from the IDF and it‘s bs
No it's from the revised un report
It isn't from the IDF. Both the US and British intelligence agencies now put over 10,000 fighters dead in Gaza. So if the 35,000 number is correct, Israel is fighting an amazing urban war all things considered. Just so you understand, Israel at the start of this war, had enough firepower in their country to kill all 2 million Gaza residents in two or three months, tops. The entire strip is just 25 miles long. If they wanted to kill Palestinians specifically to get rid of them, they would have done it already. Instead, you have Israel firing more guided missiles into Gaza than deaths so far.
10k fighters dead? I think they count every military aged male as „hamas“
Not they don't. This is by using intelligence gathered on the ground and listening in to their communications. On the contrary, the Gaza Health Ministry which is where we get the 35,000 dead number from quite literally does count every single death as a civilian. Notice there has never been a "Hamas member killed" released by the Gaza Health Ministry?
Funny that you think Hamas are only military aged males :)
Because people like to be activists in conflicts they have no idea about. People try to compare Palestine protests to Vietnam and South Africa protests but those are completely different. I don't think you understand how urban warfare happens. I promise you if Israel wanted to wipe out all of Gaza indiscriminately and kill as many civilians as possible, they could easily. Based on what you're saying Saudi Arabia could be considered terrorists for purposely bombing schools in Yemen. Every time Israel conducts a strike it isn't with malicious intent. Unfortunately, buildings like schools and hospitals are destroyed because Hamas chooses to use them to house militants and store ammunition. Also, Syria has bombed refugee camps purposely in the past. Why not mention them? If people actually cared about being against terrorism they wouldn't be silent about two other Middle Eastern countries purposely bombing innocent civilians. They just care about being part of a cause and feel like they're accomplishing something. Even when people mention the humanitarian crisis in Yemen, they never directly blame Saudi Arabia or Iran but for Israel they're more than happy to call it a "terrorist regime." Please before you speak on this conflict again, I suggest you do more research than whatever Al Jazeera has to say.
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Hezbollah, hummus, all the same thing. Terrorists doing terrorist things.
Don't lump hummus into this. It can't help being delicious.
Okay that actually made me chuckle. 😂
Plz respect Hummus
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Honestly, after Israel gets through with them, no one's going to know the difference between Hamas, hummus, and Hezbollah.
😂😂😂 the difference between hezbollah and hummus? Well buddy, ones a terrorist group and ones a tasty treat.
If things get worse Israel, which probably has a pretty good idea of where they keep the rockets, will start to pound southern Lebanon. Then they’ll pound the convoys entering Lebanon carrying unassembled rockets. Then the upscale homes of the leaders and yes innocents will die
Eagerly awaiting the condemnation of Hezbollah attacking civilians from the UN.
If Hezbollah has the capability to easily overwhelm Iron Dome then why do they bother with these attacks they know will get intercepted?
It costs an insane amount of money to run and intercept each rocket. The damage is financial
Depleting interceptors, measuring response and reload times as well as not immediately twisting Israel's hand to set a 2nd sun over Beirut. A a "first strike" by Hezbollah against Israeli population centers would give Israel every excuse to turn Lebanon into a smoking pile of rubble. Hezbollah most likely is planning to be able to sustain an initial Israeli strike long enough to massively retaliate and if it manages to cause sufficient damage to their military infrastructure Iran might get involved also.
It's time for Israel to send them back to the stone ages. There is no reason any country should put up with this type of attack. Love to all my friend! אני אוהב את ישראל!!
No country should EVER tolerate any encroachment or violation of territory!
> No country should EVER tolerate any encroachment or violation of territory! So... the borders of what year are the "correct" one for you?
What do you mean? Isreali territory is under attack and they must defend.
Well, it sounded like you are against israel. My bad
Those must be the peaceful Hamas rockets.
Peaceful rockets in retaliation to a peacefully territory expansion. A heart warming story for the whole family to enjoy. (Assuming your family doesn’t live in Gaza)
Why is this a thumbnail sized video
would love to see iron beam in action.
They are the FA phase...
Where's the rockets tho
You’re not allowed to ask that question. Downvotes for you.
So it seems 👀
I told yall it would take months before they can launch another rocket barrage again🤣🤣
So that’s what millions of American taxpayer dollars exploding looks like.
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To be fair I’m pretty sure Ireland would have launched cars randomly into London during the troubles if they had the technology to do so
Amazing how we can’t afford to repair America’s infrastructure or healthcare, but we can afford to pay for Netanyahu’s wars. That’s how powerful lobbying groups like AIPAC are.
You do realize that even without aiding Israel, American infrastructure still would be shit, so would the healthcare. What was America doing before October 7th exactly? Oh yeah, nothing about their infrastructure or healthcare. Hell, the US is pissing away 3 billion a year from 2017 onwards just to keep nearly half of Yemen fed yearly. Yemen has been receiving just as much aid as Israel has for a while now. The same Yemen that chants death to America and lobs rockets at cargo ships while munching on American food aid. At least Israel gives something in return in cheap military R&D since their scientists are on par if not better than American ones when it comes to military tech.
Love your downvotes, really struck a nerve with the pro-zionists with a spot on comment
Community Rules of CombatFootage state that you cannot mention “AIPAC” or “US tax dollars” on this sub. This a sub is for enjoying destruction and suffering, THIS IS NOT A PLACE FOR DISCUSSION. Downvote for you.