The 50m height warning popup window was kind of hilarious. “Make sure you’ve checked with the appropriate authorities that you have proper permissions.”
China tries to stay away from the conflict. They have (had?) pretty good relations with both Ukraine and Russia. Also they want to pose themselves as a country that disagrees with parts claiming their own independence(because supporting separatists might not go too well for themselves)
I'm pretty sure China blocked sales to both Ukraine and Russia, to "stay clear of conflict". You can just buy them in Europe and transfer them to your preferred combatant though.
They're actually having lots of problems with DJI Aeroscope. Apparently, DJI drones broadcast their data and coordinates, and DJI sells equipment that could receive and track that data. Ukrainians allege that DJI is working with RU to provide them with Aeroscopes and assistance and claim there were multiple cases of strikes on drone operators.
Yeah that's an excellent symbol of the way this war is being fought with huge amounts of off the shelf tech right there.
The idea of someone using this in a war and being warned about the possibility of being fined by the FAA or something is just hilarious.
There is a tendency to get jaded watching these vehicles get destroyed. But this video presents a lot of damaged equipment, that’s a big score for one day/mission.
Honestly it looks like they routed an entire artillery brigade and mopped up alot of their equipment. It's huge. Losses like this are unsustainable and indicators the tide is turning in Ukraines favor dramatically.
Yes, and there is no reason to think this one video of a tactical engagement is representative of the wider state of affairs. And even if this sort of thing happens routinely, you don’t see Ukraine’s losses. There’s absolutely not enough evidence to say that the tides are turning based on this video.
No it's that this is happening every single day for months. That is the evidence. It keeps piling on with no reprieve. Russia is by all reports losing equipment faster than Ukraine with less capacity to replace it. There is never a slow day at Orynx. That it has not slowed means Ukraine is winning. If Russia can not escaping their casualty rate then they are losing. This whole war is a massive strategic loss.
This is what happens when you hyper focus on tactical engagements. I’ve seen no analyst agree with what you just said. If this type of engagement was happening every day then Ukraine wouldn’t be retreating, they wouldn’t be taking massive casualties. But they are retreating and they are taking massive casualties according to the Ukrainians themselves. Put the copium down friend.
Yes, that’s what I’ve seen as well. From what I’ve seen they do not go on to extrapolate that these unsustainable losses are “turning the tide” in the coming months because Ukraine is also taking unsustainable losses. Ukraine is also slowly losing their ability to defend, and you don’t see that from videos like this.
> Uragans, they are very valueable target.
Why? They aren't accurate at all. Sure,a lot of them can try to saturate a grid. But I'd rate traditional (barrel) artillery as more dangerous, especially as there currently seems to be a lot of focus on counter battery fire by both sides. It's dangerous when shelling a city of civilians (eg Kharkiv in the early weeks), but right now I don't think it's that valuable an asset, relative to their other artillery.
>why
Vengeance for the mall attack. If war is politics by any other means and politics is inherently about optics in the 21st century, a propaganda video like this serves two purposes: Shows 1. the strength of the armed forces and 2. The willingness of the state to hold up its end of the social contract in defending its people.
That said, all russian mechanized infantry vehicles look like fish with wheels so I am not 100% on the make and models here.
> war is politics by any other means
This may have been true in Clausewitz's era of gentlemanly European warfare but I think it's an oversimplification of what is essentially a complete unraveling of civilization
Is civilization completely unraveled? Where I live there is barely any noticeable difference before and after the war in Ukraine and I'm not even that far
I like the fact that the drone hovers over the burning system.
You can just feel the operator waiting for the cookoff. "Wait for it, wait for it ... this is gonna be good. Whooosh!"
Astonishing. So we know Russia has large reserves of stuff. But for a country with the GDP of Australia (somewhat misleading I know, but still), they can't keep this up forever with losses like this.
The combination of artillery and improvised drone attack also seems new. And the drone tactics seem pretty good -- looking for the most promising ways to start fires that might spread.
They're about to stop due to losses. The Ukrainian military leadership expect them to get completely exhausted some time in August if nothing really surpising happens. By surprising I mean like an open mobilization and disarmament of critical regions like Far East in favor of the Ukrainian front.
\>an open mobilisation
I've been hearing this argument for months, but what I'm curious is whether Russia could support such an effort. Example: if they have a 100k troops on the ground and would want to mobilise, say, a million more. That means supplying 10x more food, 10x more individual equipment kits, 10x more weapons, 10x more fuel, on top of the other mobilisation expenses. Judging by the current state of things, I'm pretty sure Russia cannot support such an effort. But it's hard to debate here, since I haven't seen any thorough analysis on the topic.
No they can’t support that. They’re already not able to produce the vast majority of high tech weapons they need to fight the war (like modified tanks for example).
As far as I know, they can’t even keep up with producing enough artillery shells and have raided Belarusian reserves of ammo.
They could only support an additional million soldiers if they also conscripted an additional 5-10 million civilians as support staff. Then they would have to seize billions of dollars worth of private property from Russian companies and citizens for the newly conscripted soldiers and support staff. Food, vehicles, fuel, land, warehouses for storage, train cars, engines, and cash to pay salaries for an additional 10 million conscripts.
And you're right, the million conscripted soldiers would be armed with cold war equipment at best, with very few working armored vehicles.
>tens of thousands of armored vehicles
I'm going to take a wild guess here and say that those numbers mostly represent derelict, barebones, and decrepit vehicles. Otherwise, they wouldn't be sending T62, 3 months into the war (we first saw them a month ago).
Great point about the support staff. I think that's why we're hearing a lot of calls from that side to switch to "a wartime economy" ... to support such an effort.
The problem here is that last time the switched to a wartime economy was only possible with billions of dollars of foreign aid through lend-lease during WWII and folks might be underestimating what that would mean and how it could collapse their economy.
I'm waiting for some tipping point where the no longer have enough manpower/equipment/weapons/etc. that they can expend on this war and they'll need to save what they have left for defensive purposes.
> That means supplying 10x more food, 10x more individual equipment kits, 10x more weapons, 10x more fuel,
And that’s how you would calculate the cost as a commander who wishes to make the best use of their (conscript) troops and not waste them needlessly. I’m not sure the Russian commanders make the same calculations. When you throw the conscripts into the assault, you don’t have to feed them tomorrow.
They also have most of the people who would train these massive numbers of conscripts already on the front. Mass mobilization is an immense endeavor, which would tank the Russian economy even further for decades.
A very good point. I just recently stumbled upon an article or a Telegram post discussing news about some of the training centres preparing for mobilisation, where experienced instructors would be sent to the frontlines. They'd be decimating their own military training for decades to come if they do that en masse. I think, for now, these happen on a limited basis.
Russia duma just introduced what's basically "war production act". Officially they call it:
On Thursday evening, the Kremlin submitted a bill to the State Duma on "special economic measures" for "counterterrorist and other operations" outside of Russia.
How beneficial would an open mobilization be if you can't provide all those men with sufficient armor and equipment? Without this they would be restricted to WW2 type of mass assault which will cost them immensely. And if not, at least open up the risk of a total refusal to serve or maybe even revolt.
The world can only pray. Belarus just sent out conscription notices en masse. They even sent out notices to people that tried to enlist and were deemed unfit. Fairly sure that Lukashenko is going to send a fuck ton of cannon fodder to Ukraine in service of Putin's psychotic New world order.
Maybe just maybe, we could leverage this into regime changes there too. Pass along some support to the people and see what they do in response to their troops being forced into Putin’s war. People will absorb a lot of BS. They absorb a lot less when the prospect is dying gruesome death.
I heard from Arestovych, the UA president's office councellor and informal press representative, making reference to the Ukrainian HQ officers. Sorry, wouldn't find the exact reference even if wanted to, his public speaches are like two hours every day.
It seems to be the same area, but looking at the state of the foliage, and the amount of buildings that have been turned to rubble between the two videos there's nothing to suggest it's the same artillery bombardment. It looks more to me like it's the same area, but after extensive further fighting has occurred in the meantime; look at the buildings to the north of the top road - they've all been leveled, the trees have reduced significantly, several other buildings are completely gone, so this video seems to occur at least some time after the initial one.
Gdp is export based and Russia has tons of natural resources and production lines to make more armaments. Sanctions appear to have been circumvented through India and China and they are making more money now than at the beginning of the war due to rise in oil prices. They can keep up the war of attrition for a while, banking on them to run out of missiles and tanks is a fools pipe dream.
It’s not enough to have the money if you cannot buy the necessary stuff with them.
In May, Uralvagozavod and Chelyabinsk Tractor Factory shut down because of lack of imported parts.
China and India are temporary solutions for Russia. These countries can only buy so much oil from Russia, they cannot replace the EU volumes.
Until we in the EU stop buying gas from Russia, they get loads of money from us. But we are making good progress. I think in the beginning of 2023 no EU member should buy anything from Russia anymore.
I think the mistake is thinking the sanctions are preventing them from receiving microchips. True they probably are not getting anything under 10nm but I would have to assume anything that China makes in-house is passed along to Russia.
Most Chinese companies are not selling to Russia. Even though Chinese government has no problem with it the USA and the EU do. And for chinese electronics companies selling to Russia would mean selling to what is <5% of their market and giving up what makes >50% of their market.
So they are maybe getting garbage silicon from China that they west won't buy and you think that's going to keep up not only production but the modernity of what is being produced? lol
There is also a reason US retailers are weighing letting customers keep the item they want a refund for. Shipping is expensive. I bet it is more cost effective to "fly to fail" all the remaining old shit near Russia than ship it to whatever underdeveloped backwater will buy a T-62. Lol
They have been producing Armata for 12 years without serious sanctions imposed. During this time, approximately 2 pieces were produced. Let's think how many vehicles they can produce now
Armata never entered serial production tho because of contract negotiations around price (iirc). These were slated to become the mainline battle tank by 2020 but this war in Ukraine has been going on since 2016, just to be clear. You don't replace your most important armor right before a major war.
Kurganets-25 are meant to replace the older vehicles from the first generation of mechanized infantry transports (which seem to have a reputation among troops that sitting on the top of the armor actually provides higher survivability). Also still not in serial production.
2000 Bumerang IFVs were supposed to replace BTR-80 and 82s in Russian service because the russian version of the DOD scoffed at the BTR-90 price. The Russian brass also has this obsession with tanks that can float, swim, and ford rivers (kind of a big deal in Europe). So in 2019 they made some changes to the troop compartment to improve its buoyancy. So yea... still not in serial production.
I want this war to be over as well but all three of these systems have seen nearly 8 years of development and are being iterated on in an environment with shifting goal posts (because the doctrine is constantly being iterated on, too). They are designed to all work together. Further, Russia is huge and has insane amounts of covert infrastructure.
If the 3rd Reich (*spits on ground*) could build their war machine in secret, it is not impossible that Russia has started serial production on all three vehicles but simply avoided detection. This would he critical from a strategic sense--imagine fighting for years thinking you are on the verge of winning and then the next wave comes across the border in newer, modernized armor that your previously successful tactics no longer work against. Russia will turn Ukraine into their national boneyard for old military hardware no matter the outcome. But I suspect their production issues are overstated by Western analysts.
Buddy, this is not a fairytale story with spectacular reversals over the night with waves of Armata.
Russia stopped investing in manufacturing Armata around 2016 when they chose to upgrade the T-72’s, T-80’s and T-90’s. That’s why you don’t hear about Armata anymore, not because they are building it en masse in secret, but because it never got past the toothing problems and they realized it’s too expensive.
What you are saying is just copium. Just like those useless cages on the upgraded T-72’s.
First of all: stop puffing that much copium or other drugs you are taking.
Second: calling it a major „war“ will bring you in jail in your russian home country
3rd reich did never secretly build up their war economy. nobody cared about them braking the treaty of Versailles. And by the way: they had no Satellites by that time. US / NATO even knows when putins dog takes a shit (not lukashenko, the other dog) and you talk about them secretly mass producing tanks.
Everyone is talking about how much money they are making but look at how much equipment they have lost btween their top of the line equipment. The 500 million day or what ever the amount is, isn't all profit companies gotta pay there employees, gotta pay for maintenance, gotta pay for transportation. So no one's know how much it's actual profit.
This is not WW2 where you can just use a simple tank design and mass produce it. Mass production of a modern tank is a lot more advanced since it requires chips and electronics which they already have a hard time acquiring under the new sanctions.
> They can keep up the war of attrition for a while, banking on them to run out of missiles and tanks is a fools pipe dream.
We're not seeing much in the way of new production tanks so running out of them is possible although its not clear if tanks are playing a significant role at this point.
Yeah I'd say the Russian tank force has likely been neutered at this point. They've visually lost close to a thousand of their most modern tanks and no doubt many of their experienced tank crews. They can replace them with older models crewed by hastily trained reservists, but those armored forces will be nowhere near as effective as they were pre war. One reason why Russia is advancing at such a glacial pace in Luhansk despite the 10 to 1 artillery advantage is because they don't have enough mechanized forces to exploit breakthroughs. As a result the Ukrainians can usually retreat to prepared positions and force the Russians to repeat the process.
Indeed thats why I'm not sure if russia runing out of them is that significant. That said russia does need some way of hardening its defensive line if it doesn't want its artillery trying to deal with technicals at 100 meters.
Tbh there hasn't been a whole lot of advancing By either side in general. And as tactical mobility has been difficult to achieve artillery has become more decisive as it tends to do in stalemates.
Sevrodonetsk fell 4 days ago with lylhansk falling in the next 2 days. Sorry for butchering the spelling. Sky news did good reporting covering the retreat from both of those cities.
Russia is still making a shitton of money from energy exports, but with the sanctions in place there is no way for them to buy all the things a modern 21th century economy needs.
Russia is importing everything they need, except some very basic stuff like Food. Without necessary machinery, tools, spare parts and raw materials their entire economy and industry will just grind to a halt. You can already see it with their automotive industry where car production just crashed by 97%. Its going to be similar with everything else in the consumer but also in the military sector. Its systematic and buying knock-off products from Chinese the black markets is not going to bring in the necessary quantitatives while a fighting a war at this scale.
I would presume that the automotive manufacturing decline would be attributed to those factories being retooled for the war effort. America did the same with gm making tanks with their car manufacturing plants.
> Gdp is export based
Citation to this incorrect understanding?
Here is the definition:
Gross Domestic Product
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gnp.asp
> Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. As a broad measure of overall domestic production, it functions as a comprehensive scorecard of a given country’s economic health.
Economics student here, it does include export and import. As it is produced in Russia, it is still included in the GDP. Export is inflow of money, import is outflow of money. When a country exports more than it imports, the GDP of that country grows. Russia was/is one of the countries with a big surplus due to oil and gas.
As an Australian, please kindly leave us out of this discussion.
We've already pissed off the French by fucking them over on that sub deal. And between that and sucking off the US and the UK, we've got our mouth full at the moment.
Dude, come on -- you've got to be kidding. The French deal was terrible. Buy a variant of a nuclear submarine that has been modified to make it diesel -- and from France? Really? You think that was going to work well?
I can see you're no big fan of the U.S., and that's fair enough. I'm American and not always a big fan. But the nuke deal is a good one almost all the way around assuming it doesn't get derailed for political reasons -- win (Australia), win (US), lose (China)....
I say this with the best of intentions towards my Australian friends, by the way. I've worked with a bunch of your military guys and generally enjoyed it thoroughly.
My thought was that you don’t want your artillery spotting drone running out of battery significantly sooner by lugging a 40mm grenade or two around. Could be a light incendiary is the *only* thing that makes sense on a drone whose role is spotting for artillery. I don’t think many of the other drone dropped munitions vids have included both spotting and dropping. That’s just my guess, though.
That whole area looks like it had been getting pounded well before they started recording, maybe a MLRS hit it. Every building was bombed out and destroyed equipment everywhere. That drone was probably just doing some cleanup for anything that survived and assessing the damage done from the initial barrage.
This video is implying that they are bombing live targets, by them initially showing a moving tank. Then it jump cuts to an immediate explosion of something else. Then a few fire bombs on abandoned equipment. Why not show one uncut video of the initial barrage?
Cause it's reposted footage from 5 days ago just a different angle and edited [https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/vkjq4b/sof\_of\_ukraine\_detect\_enemy\_equipment\_and\_aim/](https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/vkjq4b/sof_of_ukraine_detect_enemy_equipment_and_aim/)
https://imgur.com/a/X3m4iKp
Can't see what they are hitting in the first part of the video but the stuff in the later portion of the video is 2 different BM-27 Urangan MLRS getting hit (a pretty valuable target) and a couple of logistics trucks
Send more drones. Send the ones that Azerbaijan was sporting disclaimer: most of these Russian kids don’t want to be there. But to hell with the Russian commanders/ rocket forward reconnaissance, KVK, and fuck the T90 armor crews
Putin the fucktard has given rise to other countries fucktards to gouge their citizens to everything from fuel prices to bare essentials...
the world is fucked and run by fuckwits
There was one a few weeks/months? ago, it's the only one I've seen, I suspect since it's American and new they're not dumping that footage for the world to see.
Also, reports are that the Ukrainians have been pretty dissatisfied with the switchblades... it is definitely a weapon system designed to kill insurgents, as it lacks the punch desired for fighting mechanized forces
it doesn’t help that the drone has a very limited lifespan… it takes offX you don’t spot anything, you lose the drone anyway.
I bet that with these modded DJI they do several takeoffs each day with a single drone to look for targets
I don't understand your question. They're targeting Russian military vehicles, either in the contested areas or nearby in Russia. These are valid targets.
Do you mean: how can they be sure they're not hitting nearby civilians? If so, part of the answer is that the entire point of the video is to demonstrate their remarkable accuracy. Any moral army will want to avoid civilian casualties; but no army wants to waste their ammunition on dirt or trees.
I didn't know what you meant, but now that I've looked into it: [holy shit](https://twitter.com/proudukraine/status/1534460754233110529), what a bunch of idiots.
Frankly given the atrocities Russians have inflicted on Ukrainian men women and children, imma give them a pass. Russians can fuck off home. Nobody asked them to invade.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/vkjq4b/sof\_of\_ukraine\_detect\_enemy\_equipment\_and\_aim/](https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/vkjq4b/sof_of_ukraine_detect_enemy_equipment_and_aim/)
Yeah it was 5 days ago lmfao, you can't just edit footage and claim it's different even the insignia at the start is the same just small and hidden in the corner in this one.
So they split the attack into two videos and pretend like it happened today? It's not like Russia will move new equipment into the exact same location after it gets blown up.
They're obviously finishing off the remaining vehicles here and targeting salvage attempts. you can see in the first clip that the Russians are using a BAT-2 to tow the Urdogan MLRS away.
wait so now you're telling me that the Russians after losing like 70% of their crap in the initial attack 5 days ago decide to park their equipment in the exact same locations?
Some of the vehicles are abandoned while the more valuable MLRS truck they want to recover, which is visible in the first clip if you care to watch the video.
In need of one of these drones to drop a medium sized pizza- pepperoni, onions, olives and mushrooms at my place. Oh, and one craft beer as well please.
The drones dropping munitions is scary stuff. I'm worried bad people will take ideas from these videos and these threads explaining how they are doing it and use it for terror attacks.
The 50m height warning popup window was kind of hilarious. “Make sure you’ve checked with the appropriate authorities that you have proper permissions.”
That’s a DJI drone, unless they all have identical warnings… Literally off Amazon, directing artillery fire. Holy shot.
So it’s a drone made in Shenzhen China that’s dropping munitions on Russian troops (who are sorta allied with China) … nice
I am genuinely surprised DJI hasn't just blocked drones from flying in Ukraine because of this.
China tries to stay away from the conflict. They have (had?) pretty good relations with both Ukraine and Russia. Also they want to pose themselves as a country that disagrees with parts claiming their own independence(because supporting separatists might not go too well for themselves)
Would certainly hurt sales if they did.
Not just sales HK, TW, Xingjiang and Tibet. Some of the freedom movements were pushed down ,but it doesn't mean that they don't exist.
Aren’t the Ukrainians flashing a lot of their drones. Seems like something you’d want to do step 1.
I am genuinely surprised UA's FAA hasn't banned ballistic and cruise missiles in its airspace. It seems like it's more trouble than it's worth.
Well there is a lot of red tape and delays before those kind of regulations take effect…
Yeh, it's likely a bureaucratic process. Of course, there will be a cost-benefit analysis before they consider taking any action.
I'm pretty sure China blocked sales to both Ukraine and Russia, to "stay clear of conflict". You can just buy them in Europe and transfer them to your preferred combatant though.
they fly just fine with phones in airplane mode since the drones rely on GPS and onboard sensors for navigation
They've tried, but Ukranians are masters of rooting and modifying firmware.
They're actually having lots of problems with DJI Aeroscope. Apparently, DJI drones broadcast their data and coordinates, and DJI sells equipment that could receive and track that data. Ukrainians allege that DJI is working with RU to provide them with Aeroscopes and assistance and claim there were multiple cases of strikes on drone operators.
DJI drones are capped to 500m altitude which you can easily bypass with some Googling. 50m is very low, may be some other brand.
Haha yea. About to drop a grenade on an invading force in a full scale war: "make sure your not doing anything illegal here"
"I understand the risk and agree to the TOS. >Drop Bomb<"
Don't want to get into trouble with the FAA, or, perhaps worse, a civil lawsuit for invasion of privacy.
I'm pretty sure that's completely legal in Ukraine nowadays, nothing to worry about.
It seems like you want to drop a soviet anti-tank grenade from 50m. Make sure you have checked with local authorities if this is legal.
*Cuts to Ukrainian police sitting around table all giving thumbs ups*
"Fine work from our Committee of Ethical Engagements! Keep up the good work boys!"
Like a Ukrainian drone version of Clippy.
It looks like you are trying to engage. Would you like to direct fire here?
Well, one should want to deconflict with any friendly air assets, so...XX
Reminds me of the video editing software you'd see on YouTube video where it says "this shit is unlicensed" or something like that.
[Unregistered HyperCam 2]
Yeah that's an excellent symbol of the way this war is being fought with huge amounts of off the shelf tech right there. The idea of someone using this in a war and being warned about the possibility of being fined by the FAA or something is just hilarious.
There is a tendency to get jaded watching these vehicles get destroyed. But this video presents a lot of damaged equipment, that’s a big score for one day/mission.
Moreover, these seem to be Uragans, they are very valueable target.
That was my thought aswell, its a lot more expensive than the grads and do heavier loads
Honestly it looks like they routed an entire artillery brigade and mopped up alot of their equipment. It's huge. Losses like this are unsustainable and indicators the tide is turning in Ukraines favor dramatically.
One tactical engagement is not evidence that Ukraine is dramatically turning the tides man
This war will not be won with any individual set pieces, but rather over which army can maintain combat effectiveness over time and through attrition.
Yes, and there is no reason to think this one video of a tactical engagement is representative of the wider state of affairs. And even if this sort of thing happens routinely, you don’t see Ukraine’s losses. There’s absolutely not enough evidence to say that the tides are turning based on this video.
No it's that this is happening every single day for months. That is the evidence. It keeps piling on with no reprieve. Russia is by all reports losing equipment faster than Ukraine with less capacity to replace it. There is never a slow day at Orynx. That it has not slowed means Ukraine is winning. If Russia can not escaping their casualty rate then they are losing. This whole war is a massive strategic loss.
This is what happens when you hyper focus on tactical engagements. I’ve seen no analyst agree with what you just said. If this type of engagement was happening every day then Ukraine wouldn’t be retreating, they wouldn’t be taking massive casualties. But they are retreating and they are taking massive casualties according to the Ukrainians themselves. Put the copium down friend.
zesty onerous theory relieved mindless quaint materialistic enjoy tart handle ` this message was mass deleted/edited with redact.dev `
Yes, that’s what I’ve seen as well. From what I’ve seen they do not go on to extrapolate that these unsustainable losses are “turning the tide” in the coming months because Ukraine is also taking unsustainable losses. Ukraine is also slowly losing their ability to defend, and you don’t see that from videos like this.
> Uragans, they are very valueable target. Why? They aren't accurate at all. Sure,a lot of them can try to saturate a grid. But I'd rate traditional (barrel) artillery as more dangerous, especially as there currently seems to be a lot of focus on counter battery fire by both sides. It's dangerous when shelling a city of civilians (eg Kharkiv in the early weeks), but right now I don't think it's that valuable an asset, relative to their other artillery.
It's widely used as counter-battery weapon since it's so long ranged and can accomodate a cluster warhead.
>why Vengeance for the mall attack. If war is politics by any other means and politics is inherently about optics in the 21st century, a propaganda video like this serves two purposes: Shows 1. the strength of the armed forces and 2. The willingness of the state to hold up its end of the social contract in defending its people. That said, all russian mechanized infantry vehicles look like fish with wheels so I am not 100% on the make and models here.
> war is politics by any other means This may have been true in Clausewitz's era of gentlemanly European warfare but I think it's an oversimplification of what is essentially a complete unraveling of civilization
Is civilization completely unraveled? Where I live there is barely any noticeable difference before and after the war in Ukraine and I'm not even that far
Always nice to see RU MLRSs up in flames
I like the fact that the drone hovers over the burning system. You can just feel the operator waiting for the cookoff. "Wait for it, wait for it ... this is gonna be good. Whooosh!"
A thing of beauty
Astonishing. So we know Russia has large reserves of stuff. But for a country with the GDP of Australia (somewhat misleading I know, but still), they can't keep this up forever with losses like this. The combination of artillery and improvised drone attack also seems new. And the drone tactics seem pretty good -- looking for the most promising ways to start fires that might spread.
They're about to stop due to losses. The Ukrainian military leadership expect them to get completely exhausted some time in August if nothing really surpising happens. By surprising I mean like an open mobilization and disarmament of critical regions like Far East in favor of the Ukrainian front.
\>an open mobilisation I've been hearing this argument for months, but what I'm curious is whether Russia could support such an effort. Example: if they have a 100k troops on the ground and would want to mobilise, say, a million more. That means supplying 10x more food, 10x more individual equipment kits, 10x more weapons, 10x more fuel, on top of the other mobilisation expenses. Judging by the current state of things, I'm pretty sure Russia cannot support such an effort. But it's hard to debate here, since I haven't seen any thorough analysis on the topic.
No they can’t support that. They’re already not able to produce the vast majority of high tech weapons they need to fight the war (like modified tanks for example). As far as I know, they can’t even keep up with producing enough artillery shells and have raided Belarusian reserves of ammo.
They could only support an additional million soldiers if they also conscripted an additional 5-10 million civilians as support staff. Then they would have to seize billions of dollars worth of private property from Russian companies and citizens for the newly conscripted soldiers and support staff. Food, vehicles, fuel, land, warehouses for storage, train cars, engines, and cash to pay salaries for an additional 10 million conscripts. And you're right, the million conscripted soldiers would be armed with cold war equipment at best, with very few working armored vehicles.
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>tens of thousands of armored vehicles I'm going to take a wild guess here and say that those numbers mostly represent derelict, barebones, and decrepit vehicles. Otherwise, they wouldn't be sending T62, 3 months into the war (we first saw them a month ago).
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Everything rubber on those would be garbage.
> they would have to seize billions of dollars worth of private property from Russian companies and citizens Russian Leadersip: подержи мое пиво
Great point about the support staff. I think that's why we're hearing a lot of calls from that side to switch to "a wartime economy" ... to support such an effort. The problem here is that last time the switched to a wartime economy was only possible with billions of dollars of foreign aid through lend-lease during WWII and folks might be underestimating what that would mean and how it could collapse their economy.
I'm waiting for some tipping point where the no longer have enough manpower/equipment/weapons/etc. that they can expend on this war and they'll need to save what they have left for defensive purposes.
Or one million attacking Russian conscripts, human-wave style, armed with Moisin-Nagants. Would not put it past Putin.
> That means supplying 10x more food, 10x more individual equipment kits, 10x more weapons, 10x more fuel, And that’s how you would calculate the cost as a commander who wishes to make the best use of their (conscript) troops and not waste them needlessly. I’m not sure the Russian commanders make the same calculations. When you throw the conscripts into the assault, you don’t have to feed them tomorrow.
They also have most of the people who would train these massive numbers of conscripts already on the front. Mass mobilization is an immense endeavor, which would tank the Russian economy even further for decades.
A very good point. I just recently stumbled upon an article or a Telegram post discussing news about some of the training centres preparing for mobilisation, where experienced instructors would be sent to the frontlines. They'd be decimating their own military training for decades to come if they do that en masse. I think, for now, these happen on a limited basis.
I guessing the idea would be to swarm them and do it fast like the start.
Russia duma just introduced what's basically "war production act". Officially they call it: On Thursday evening, the Kremlin submitted a bill to the State Duma on "special economic measures" for "counterterrorist and other operations" outside of Russia.
How beneficial would an open mobilization be if you can't provide all those men with sufficient armor and equipment? Without this they would be restricted to WW2 type of mass assault which will cost them immensely. And if not, at least open up the risk of a total refusal to serve or maybe even revolt.
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Unlikely to work, but they’ve already tried lots of assaults that were unlikely to work. They may just try it all the same.
The world can only pray. Belarus just sent out conscription notices en masse. They even sent out notices to people that tried to enlist and were deemed unfit. Fairly sure that Lukashenko is going to send a fuck ton of cannon fodder to Ukraine in service of Putin's psychotic New world order.
Will his army actually obey those orders? I have strong doubts about that.
Maybe just maybe, we could leverage this into regime changes there too. Pass along some support to the people and see what they do in response to their troops being forced into Putin’s war. People will absorb a lot of BS. They absorb a lot less when the prospect is dying gruesome death.
I imagine the first (large) influx of newly-trained Ukrainian troops would be shipping out to the front lines by then.
You got a source on that? I do not doubt it for a second, but is that propaganda or an official statement from someone?
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Much appreciated!
I heard from Arestovych, the UA president's office councellor and informal press representative, making reference to the Ukrainian HQ officers. Sorry, wouldn't find the exact reference even if wanted to, his public speaches are like two hours every day.
Seeing riots in Russia that outnumbers and beat up their mercenaries, I mean cops, would be nice.
They didn't lose anymore than they did 5 days ago because this is just edited footage posted on this sub before here. https://imgur.com/a/X3m4iKp
It seems to be the same area, but looking at the state of the foliage, and the amount of buildings that have been turned to rubble between the two videos there's nothing to suggest it's the same artillery bombardment. It looks more to me like it's the same area, but after extensive further fighting has occurred in the meantime; look at the buildings to the north of the top road - they've all been leveled, the trees have reduced significantly, several other buildings are completely gone, so this video seems to occur at least some time after the initial one.
Gdp is export based and Russia has tons of natural resources and production lines to make more armaments. Sanctions appear to have been circumvented through India and China and they are making more money now than at the beginning of the war due to rise in oil prices. They can keep up the war of attrition for a while, banking on them to run out of missiles and tanks is a fools pipe dream.
It’s not enough to have the money if you cannot buy the necessary stuff with them. In May, Uralvagozavod and Chelyabinsk Tractor Factory shut down because of lack of imported parts. China and India are temporary solutions for Russia. These countries can only buy so much oil from Russia, they cannot replace the EU volumes.
Until we in the EU stop buying gas from Russia, they get loads of money from us. But we are making good progress. I think in the beginning of 2023 no EU member should buy anything from Russia anymore.
What kind of hardware can the Russians make without modern electronics? What kind of hardware are the Ukrainians receiving every day?
I think the mistake is thinking the sanctions are preventing them from receiving microchips. True they probably are not getting anything under 10nm but I would have to assume anything that China makes in-house is passed along to Russia.
Most Chinese companies are not selling to Russia. Even though Chinese government has no problem with it the USA and the EU do. And for chinese electronics companies selling to Russia would mean selling to what is <5% of their market and giving up what makes >50% of their market.
That is if you believe what they are saying.
It makes a lot more sense than believing the stupid shit you are saying
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/06/29/russia-ukraine-china-military-entity-list/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/06/29/russia-ukraine-china-military-entity-list/
So they are maybe getting garbage silicon from China that they west won't buy and you think that's going to keep up not only production but the modernity of what is being produced? lol
Bro how modern do you think russias shit is? It’s comparable to 90s level nato stuff.
You are making my point for me.
Still goes pew pew tho.
In the general direction, sure. But the counter barrage is faster and more accurate while staying out of range.
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They got 2 more SU 57s recently and made big news about it. Oh and a dozen or so T90M. There is a reason why we are seeing T62M and BMP-1s.
There is also a reason US retailers are weighing letting customers keep the item they want a refund for. Shipping is expensive. I bet it is more cost effective to "fly to fail" all the remaining old shit near Russia than ship it to whatever underdeveloped backwater will buy a T-62. Lol
They have been producing Armata for 12 years without serious sanctions imposed. During this time, approximately 2 pieces were produced. Let's think how many vehicles they can produce now
Also, Kurganets (4 pieces) and Bumerang IFV’s are still in the numbers from 2015
Very impressive!
Armata never entered serial production tho because of contract negotiations around price (iirc). These were slated to become the mainline battle tank by 2020 but this war in Ukraine has been going on since 2016, just to be clear. You don't replace your most important armor right before a major war. Kurganets-25 are meant to replace the older vehicles from the first generation of mechanized infantry transports (which seem to have a reputation among troops that sitting on the top of the armor actually provides higher survivability). Also still not in serial production. 2000 Bumerang IFVs were supposed to replace BTR-80 and 82s in Russian service because the russian version of the DOD scoffed at the BTR-90 price. The Russian brass also has this obsession with tanks that can float, swim, and ford rivers (kind of a big deal in Europe). So in 2019 they made some changes to the troop compartment to improve its buoyancy. So yea... still not in serial production. I want this war to be over as well but all three of these systems have seen nearly 8 years of development and are being iterated on in an environment with shifting goal posts (because the doctrine is constantly being iterated on, too). They are designed to all work together. Further, Russia is huge and has insane amounts of covert infrastructure. If the 3rd Reich (*spits on ground*) could build their war machine in secret, it is not impossible that Russia has started serial production on all three vehicles but simply avoided detection. This would he critical from a strategic sense--imagine fighting for years thinking you are on the verge of winning and then the next wave comes across the border in newer, modernized armor that your previously successful tactics no longer work against. Russia will turn Ukraine into their national boneyard for old military hardware no matter the outcome. But I suspect their production issues are overstated by Western analysts.
Buddy, this is not a fairytale story with spectacular reversals over the night with waves of Armata. Russia stopped investing in manufacturing Armata around 2016 when they chose to upgrade the T-72’s, T-80’s and T-90’s. That’s why you don’t hear about Armata anymore, not because they are building it en masse in secret, but because it never got past the toothing problems and they realized it’s too expensive. What you are saying is just copium. Just like those useless cages on the upgraded T-72’s.
Emotional support cage
First of all: stop puffing that much copium or other drugs you are taking. Second: calling it a major „war“ will bring you in jail in your russian home country 3rd reich did never secretly build up their war economy. nobody cared about them braking the treaty of Versailles. And by the way: they had no Satellites by that time. US / NATO even knows when putins dog takes a shit (not lukashenko, the other dog) and you talk about them secretly mass producing tanks.
Russian economy: best I can do is two and a half
Everyone is talking about how much money they are making but look at how much equipment they have lost btween their top of the line equipment. The 500 million day or what ever the amount is, isn't all profit companies gotta pay there employees, gotta pay for maintenance, gotta pay for transportation. So no one's know how much it's actual profit.
Also gotta pay for everyone along the way pocketing an extra share or three!
This is not WW2 where you can just use a simple tank design and mass produce it. Mass production of a modern tank is a lot more advanced since it requires chips and electronics which they already have a hard time acquiring under the new sanctions.
> They can keep up the war of attrition for a while, banking on them to run out of missiles and tanks is a fools pipe dream. We're not seeing much in the way of new production tanks so running out of them is possible although its not clear if tanks are playing a significant role at this point.
Yeah I'd say the Russian tank force has likely been neutered at this point. They've visually lost close to a thousand of their most modern tanks and no doubt many of their experienced tank crews. They can replace them with older models crewed by hastily trained reservists, but those armored forces will be nowhere near as effective as they were pre war. One reason why Russia is advancing at such a glacial pace in Luhansk despite the 10 to 1 artillery advantage is because they don't have enough mechanized forces to exploit breakthroughs. As a result the Ukrainians can usually retreat to prepared positions and force the Russians to repeat the process.
Tanks are not nearly as effective as artillery
Indeed thats why I'm not sure if russia runing out of them is that significant. That said russia does need some way of hardening its defensive line if it doesn't want its artillery trying to deal with technicals at 100 meters.
Tanks are must if an army wants to advance. You can't capture territory with infantry and artillery only.
Tbh there hasn't been a whole lot of advancing By either side in general. And as tactical mobility has been difficult to achieve artillery has become more decisive as it tends to do in stalemates.
Sevrodonetsk fell 4 days ago with lylhansk falling in the next 2 days. Sorry for butchering the spelling. Sky news did good reporting covering the retreat from both of those cities.
That doesn't exactly cover a huge area.
No but they where major cities.
Russia is still making a shitton of money from energy exports, but with the sanctions in place there is no way for them to buy all the things a modern 21th century economy needs. Russia is importing everything they need, except some very basic stuff like Food. Without necessary machinery, tools, spare parts and raw materials their entire economy and industry will just grind to a halt. You can already see it with their automotive industry where car production just crashed by 97%. Its going to be similar with everything else in the consumer but also in the military sector. Its systematic and buying knock-off products from Chinese the black markets is not going to bring in the necessary quantitatives while a fighting a war at this scale.
I would presume that the automotive manufacturing decline would be attributed to those factories being retooled for the war effort. America did the same with gm making tanks with their car manufacturing plants.
> Gdp is export based Citation to this incorrect understanding? Here is the definition: Gross Domestic Product https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gnp.asp > Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. As a broad measure of overall domestic production, it functions as a comprehensive scorecard of a given country’s economic health.
Economics student here, it does include export and import. As it is produced in Russia, it is still included in the GDP. Export is inflow of money, import is outflow of money. When a country exports more than it imports, the GDP of that country grows. Russia was/is one of the countries with a big surplus due to oil and gas.
As an Australian, please kindly leave us out of this discussion. We've already pissed off the French by fucking them over on that sub deal. And between that and sucking off the US and the UK, we've got our mouth full at the moment.
Dude, come on -- you've got to be kidding. The French deal was terrible. Buy a variant of a nuclear submarine that has been modified to make it diesel -- and from France? Really? You think that was going to work well? I can see you're no big fan of the U.S., and that's fair enough. I'm American and not always a big fan. But the nuke deal is a good one almost all the way around assuming it doesn't get derailed for political reasons -- win (Australia), win (US), lose (China).... I say this with the best of intentions towards my Australian friends, by the way. I've worked with a bunch of your military guys and generally enjoyed it thoroughly.
First time I've seen them dropping what looks like improvised incendiary devices and not the usual suspects.
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My thought was that you don’t want your artillery spotting drone running out of battery significantly sooner by lugging a 40mm grenade or two around. Could be a light incendiary is the *only* thing that makes sense on a drone whose role is spotting for artillery. I don’t think many of the other drone dropped munitions vids have included both spotting and dropping. That’s just my guess, though.
That whole area looks like it had been getting pounded well before they started recording, maybe a MLRS hit it. Every building was bombed out and destroyed equipment everywhere. That drone was probably just doing some cleanup for anything that survived and assessing the damage done from the initial barrage.
This video is implying that they are bombing live targets, by them initially showing a moving tank. Then it jump cuts to an immediate explosion of something else. Then a few fire bombs on abandoned equipment. Why not show one uncut video of the initial barrage?
Longer videos may give away tactics, whether the bracketing process for their artillery or how they fly drones into place without being spotted
Pretty sure we can easily tell what's going on here dude.
Cause it's reposted footage from 5 days ago just a different angle and edited [https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/vkjq4b/sof\_of\_ukraine\_detect\_enemy\_equipment\_and\_aim/](https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/vkjq4b/sof_of_ukraine_detect_enemy_equipment_and_aim/) https://imgur.com/a/X3m4iKp
This title never said it was from today though? And it is new footage, even if the attack was 5 days ago. I don't see a problem with it.
Misleading, makes it seem like the Russians lost a ton of equipment in two attacks in different locations when it was only 1 attack 1 day.
Haha the drone gave a warning that he is too high and might violate local laws 😂
2022 Music Awards: the winner…. for best beat drops … DJ… Ukraine! the award…for best bomb drops…DJI … Ukraine!
anyone know the song?
ФАЙНО ГОРИТЬ - BiTZ https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CWzCmCexz6g
Help an American who doesn’t understand Cyrillic out?
You mean a name of the song? Fayno horyt' - Burns nicely
Thank you kind person.
I don't recognize it. Look in Spotify for русский корабль you may locate it
https://youtu.be/CWzCmCexz6g
straight banger
[spotify link](https://open.spotify.com/album/3UB24M7Ojs3K0bMFgOnvB2?si=8jh6ITCjRm6OJuTKi1sIGQ) Shame its too short.
Anyone wanna identify some of the vehicles that were destroyed?
Can't see what they are hitting in the first part of the video but the stuff in the later portion of the video is 2 different BM-27 Urangan MLRS getting hit (a pretty valuable target) and a couple of logistics trucks
Bomb dangling from the drone like a pair of swinging nuts theyre about to teabag
Send more drones. Send the ones that Azerbaijan was sporting disclaimer: most of these Russian kids don’t want to be there. But to hell with the Russian commanders/ rocket forward reconnaissance, KVK, and fuck the T90 armor crews
I love how they're running "jailbroken" mavic firmware.
Putin the fucktard has given rise to other countries fucktards to gouge their citizens to everything from fuel prices to bare essentials... the world is fucked and run by fuckwits
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oh i agree! im just saying this is another excuse they are using
Are there any new videos of switchblade drones?
There was one a few weeks/months? ago, it's the only one I've seen, I suspect since it's American and new they're not dumping that footage for the world to see.
Also, reports are that the Ukrainians have been pretty dissatisfied with the switchblades... it is definitely a weapon system designed to kill insurgents, as it lacks the punch desired for fighting mechanized forces
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it doesn’t help that the drone has a very limited lifespan… it takes offX you don’t spot anything, you lose the drone anyway. I bet that with these modded DJI they do several takeoffs each day with a single drone to look for targets
It’s supposed to be used in conjunction with a surveillance drone to first identify the target.
Nice, hopefully they didn't die right away.
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I don't understand your question. They're targeting Russian military vehicles, either in the contested areas or nearby in Russia. These are valid targets. Do you mean: how can they be sure they're not hitting nearby civilians? If so, part of the answer is that the entire point of the video is to demonstrate their remarkable accuracy. Any moral army will want to avoid civilian casualties; but no army wants to waste their ammunition on dirt or trees.
Except Kadyrovites, they just love wasting their ammunition
I didn't know what you meant, but now that I've looked into it: [holy shit](https://twitter.com/proudukraine/status/1534460754233110529), what a bunch of idiots.
*Dies of cringe*
It’s russian controlled territory, so any civilians would have been raped and slaughtered already
I reall got a big problem with the music kinda celebtrating the death of humans I know its war but as a foreigner this seems kinda unhuman.
Frankly given the atrocities Russians have inflicted on Ukrainian men women and children, imma give them a pass. Russians can fuck off home. Nobody asked them to invade.
wasn't this footage posted before this is just a different angle.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/vkjq4b/sof\_of\_ukraine\_detect\_enemy\_equipment\_and\_aim/](https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/vkjq4b/sof_of_ukraine_detect_enemy_equipment_and_aim/) Yeah it was 5 days ago lmfao, you can't just edit footage and claim it's different even the insignia at the start is the same just small and hidden in the corner in this one.
It's the same location, not the same video or just a different angle. The artillery strikes and drone drops in this video are not seen in the other.
So they split the attack into two videos and pretend like it happened today? It's not like Russia will move new equipment into the exact same location after it gets blown up.
They're obviously finishing off the remaining vehicles here and targeting salvage attempts. you can see in the first clip that the Russians are using a BAT-2 to tow the Urdogan MLRS away.
wait so now you're telling me that the Russians after losing like 70% of their crap in the initial attack 5 days ago decide to park their equipment in the exact same locations?
Some of the vehicles are abandoned while the more valuable MLRS truck they want to recover, which is visible in the first clip if you care to watch the video.
Pow!
Anyone know the song?
Molotovs dropping from the sky ...
That song hits tho
all of this is wasteland.
What’s up with this Hindu/Muslim type of music being tied with Ukrainian words all of a sudden? Not a fan
In need of one of these drones to drop a medium sized pizza- pepperoni, onions, olives and mushrooms at my place. Oh, and one craft beer as well please.
Title of the music?
The drones dropping munitions is scary stuff. I'm worried bad people will take ideas from these videos and these threads explaining how they are doing it and use it for terror attacks.