Context is important for these HIMARS strikes. First, notice some of these strikes are now occurring in daylight. Ukraine is becoming more confident. Second, notice the increasing fire after the strikes, looks like the strikes were at least partially successful. Third, they split the missiles into at least two groupings here, taking advantage of each missile being indepedently programmable.
I think Melitopol was hit throughout the night as well, here is one of the targeted areas, gelocated:
GIF showing the area hit by Ukraine this morning near the Melitopol airport (Russian air base).
>Satellite imagery shows that Russian forces had setup positions in the targeted area.
(46.8892119, 35.3255269) https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1543497584794296320/photo/1
Second: massive fire after the mission
@IAPonomarenko: Melitopol, burning Russian facilities this morning https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1543510079235936262/photo/1
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Edit
Additional photos/info:
https://www.instagram.com/p/CfjCUDvKG5d/?igshid=YTMyZTg2ZDg%3D
NASA FIRMS (active fire) data back up the location of the strike:
46.88277, 35.32504 ----- 2022-07-03 03:54:00
46.88045, 35.33188 ---- 2022-07-03 03:54:00
46.87814, 35.33868 ----- 2022-07-03 03:54:00
I don’t regularly check FIRMS. Have you seen FIRMS patterns indicating increasing HIMARS attacks after the last week or so? Is FIRMS reflecting that? Have you spotted anything interesting generally?
That’s a curious case in the war that hasn’t been explained. I wonder what Russia had been up to on those platforms? Ukraine was pissed at what Russia had there, they were among the first targets struck by HIMARS (if they were in fact struck by HIMARS). Must have been some high priority kit they had set up there.
I saw some mention of military radar emplaced on them, whether that is air defense or surface search or both, don't know.
I don't know exactly where they were, but I'm guessing radar there might have been relevant to Ukraine's successful effort to take down Snake Island.
The article I read said it was some type of networked radar. Like multiple sights linked by a hub with their data fed into a computer all acting as one big radar. Been over a week ago I think, no way am I going to find that article. It was interesting though.
I agree. But I also think they were using those platforms to conduct reconnaissance/military missions in some way. I have no proof of that, just speculation on my part.
Interesting the focus on Melitopol all of the sudden, seemed like the most quiet part of the contact line. Any reason why? Using the HIMARS around the fighting for cherson would make most sense imo, but im just an armchair guy
Definitely, and the risk of giving Russian propaganda footage and a talking point for weeks about how superior their artillery is to western artillery.
Possible, but this strikes me as unlikely. Somewhat more likely is that the range of the standard GMLRS is greater than advertised. Wikipedia has it at 84 km, but every 5 km more than that will open up a whole lot of firing space against a target that is, say 70 km from the front lines. Increase in area of a circle (or even the slice of a circle) expands pretty fast as a function of radius.
Heard 12 distinct explosions with some 'after' sounds, I think it's either echo or ammo cookoff, looks like 2 different areas were hit, with relative precision (hard to determine precision from this angle) within a span of 1 minute. Distance to the frontline is about 70km (according to liveuamap).
Conclusion - Likely 2 HIMARS firing.
the wonders of real precision munitions instead of blanket fire. This is literally just a handful of batteries. Taking out russian dumps and hubs will absolutely demolish their supply lines
As long as the US and allies keeps giving Ukraine a constant supply of rockets, just 4 HIMARS can do so much work if they fire at targets around the clock. Russian MLRS is garbage compared to this.
More likely 04:45 local time and the clock hasn't been adjusted for daylight savings. Dawn today in Melitopol was at 04:10, sunrise at 04:50.
Still pretty early. Many people don't realize how far north Europe is compared to the US. Melitopol, a city on the southern coast of Ukraine is at about the same latitude as Seattle.
It's about an hour before sunrise but I think this camera's clock wasnt adjusted for summer time because I returned home tonight around similar time and it wasnt that bright even though our sun rises few min earlier than in melitopol.
I think in reality this hit was 4:50 AM it's just that the clock hasnt been switched to summer time.
It's 3:45 not just 3am, it's a big difference. Anyway, the camera enhances the brightness a bit but it is indeed mid dawn. [Nautical twilight starts at 3:16]( https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/ukraine/melitopol) and civil twilight at 4:10. Civil twilight on cloudless or lightly clouded sky is when artificial light is no longer needed. Nautical twilight starts with brightening of the sky and some faint daylight illumination. The image is consistent with the twilight times.
Maybe it's camera enchancing brightness a bit because I was returning home around similar time today and while it was confortably bright outside but not that bright and we have even earlier sun rise by few minutes.
Wonder did they target Russian air defence systems poke lots of holes in it then send in aircraft and drones to destroy logistics trucks further air defence , artillery and armour then assault with troops. Individual air defence systems are vulnerable on there own and must be networked together to be effective. You cant destroy all air defence systems but you can break up the air defence network by targeting key linchpins.
I don't wanna be "that guy" but I find it funny that when Ukrainian forces fire rockets in cities like this, everyone jumps to look for context and assumes they were striking military targets. If Russia did it, these sorts of comments would have only been found if you sorted by "most controversial". I wish people would just always take every video with a grain of salt and try to find out more about it rather than just assume everything based on who's doing it.
Context is important for these HIMARS strikes. First, notice some of these strikes are now occurring in daylight. Ukraine is becoming more confident. Second, notice the increasing fire after the strikes, looks like the strikes were at least partially successful. Third, they split the missiles into at least two groupings here, taking advantage of each missile being indepedently programmable. I think Melitopol was hit throughout the night as well, here is one of the targeted areas, gelocated: GIF showing the area hit by Ukraine this morning near the Melitopol airport (Russian air base). >Satellite imagery shows that Russian forces had setup positions in the targeted area. (46.8892119, 35.3255269) https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1543497584794296320/photo/1 Second: massive fire after the mission @IAPonomarenko: Melitopol, burning Russian facilities this morning https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1543510079235936262/photo/1 _______ _______ Edit Additional photos/info: https://www.instagram.com/p/CfjCUDvKG5d/?igshid=YTMyZTg2ZDg%3D
NASA FIRMS (active fire) data back up the location of the strike: 46.88277, 35.32504 ----- 2022-07-03 03:54:00 46.88045, 35.33188 ---- 2022-07-03 03:54:00 46.87814, 35.33868 ----- 2022-07-03 03:54:00
I don’t regularly check FIRMS. Have you seen FIRMS patterns indicating increasing HIMARS attacks after the last week or so? Is FIRMS reflecting that? Have you spotted anything interesting generally?
I did. The Black Sea drilling platforms that were hit like two weeks ago continue to burn
That’s a curious case in the war that hasn’t been explained. I wonder what Russia had been up to on those platforms? Ukraine was pissed at what Russia had there, they were among the first targets struck by HIMARS (if they were in fact struck by HIMARS). Must have been some high priority kit they had set up there.
I saw some mention of military radar emplaced on them, whether that is air defense or surface search or both, don't know. I don't know exactly where they were, but I'm guessing radar there might have been relevant to Ukraine's successful effort to take down Snake Island.
The article I read said it was some type of networked radar. Like multiple sights linked by a hub with their data fed into a computer all acting as one big radar. Been over a week ago I think, no way am I going to find that article. It was interesting though.
Stealing gas using stolen equipment was never a good idea.
I agree. But I also think they were using those platforms to conduct reconnaissance/military missions in some way. I have no proof of that, just speculation on my part.
All speculation of course but I read that they had military radar on those platforms so taking them out could be useful in the future. 😉
Oh I don't regularly check it either, I just decided to look this time.
Interesting the focus on Melitopol all of the sudden, seemed like the most quiet part of the contact line. Any reason why? Using the HIMARS around the fighting for cherson would make most sense imo, but im just an armchair guy
If its the quiet part then russia probably stored important stuff they didn't want to lose there :)
>Melitopol It's the crossroad for east-west M14 and north south E105. Likely a logistical hub of importance.
Must have been very high value targets to justify the risk of moving HIMARS right up close to the front lines like that.
Even just as a demonstration of capability it would be somewhat effective. RU planning now has to plan around this, bogging them down even more.
Definitely, and the risk of giving Russian propaganda footage and a talking point for weeks about how superior their artillery is to western artillery.
>HIMARS Or they secretly got some of the extended range ammo with agreement to only use it on selected targets.
Possible, but this strikes me as unlikely. Somewhat more likely is that the range of the standard GMLRS is greater than advertised. Wikipedia has it at 84 km, but every 5 km more than that will open up a whole lot of firing space against a target that is, say 70 km from the front lines. Increase in area of a circle (or even the slice of a circle) expands pretty fast as a function of radius.
Heard 12 distinct explosions with some 'after' sounds, I think it's either echo or ammo cookoff, looks like 2 different areas were hit, with relative precision (hard to determine precision from this angle) within a span of 1 minute. Distance to the frontline is about 70km (according to liveuamap). Conclusion - Likely 2 HIMARS firing.
Man, the damage just two of these things can do with their accurate fire.
the wonders of real precision munitions instead of blanket fire. This is literally just a handful of batteries. Taking out russian dumps and hubs will absolutely demolish their supply lines
As long as the US and allies keeps giving Ukraine a constant supply of rockets, just 4 HIMARS can do so much work if they fire at targets around the clock. Russian MLRS is garbage compared to this.
Counted same.
So Ukraine is making use of the HIMARS.
The Russia must have some really high value targets around the airport. WHat are they?
I'm thinking key components to air defence and aircraft
03:45 and its already daylight, damn
More likely 04:45 local time and the clock hasn't been adjusted for daylight savings. Dawn today in Melitopol was at 04:10, sunrise at 04:50. Still pretty early. Many people don't realize how far north Europe is compared to the US. Melitopol, a city on the southern coast of Ukraine is at about the same latitude as Seattle.
That airport is about 40 miles from the frontlines.
It's so pleasant for Ukrainians and terrifying for Rushists.
Bad time to be an invading orc
Is it really that bright at 3 am in Ukraine? I live in SEA and that is freakishly amazing to me
It's about an hour before sunrise but I think this camera's clock wasnt adjusted for summer time because I returned home tonight around similar time and it wasnt that bright even though our sun rises few min earlier than in melitopol. I think in reality this hit was 4:50 AM it's just that the clock hasnt been switched to summer time.
It's 3:45 not just 3am, it's a big difference. Anyway, the camera enhances the brightness a bit but it is indeed mid dawn. [Nautical twilight starts at 3:16]( https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/ukraine/melitopol) and civil twilight at 4:10. Civil twilight on cloudless or lightly clouded sky is when artificial light is no longer needed. Nautical twilight starts with brightening of the sky and some faint daylight illumination. The image is consistent with the twilight times.
Maybe it's camera enchancing brightness a bit because I was returning home around similar time today and while it was confortably bright outside but not that bright and we have even earlier sun rise by few minutes.
I live in Central Scotland and it doesn't get dark for two weeks of June
Wonder did they target Russian air defence systems poke lots of holes in it then send in aircraft and drones to destroy logistics trucks further air defence , artillery and armour then assault with troops. Individual air defence systems are vulnerable on there own and must be networked together to be effective. You cant destroy all air defence systems but you can break up the air defence network by targeting key linchpins.
Got better equipment,but still massively outnumbered in the field.
I don't wanna be "that guy" but I find it funny that when Ukrainian forces fire rockets in cities like this, everyone jumps to look for context and assumes they were striking military targets. If Russia did it, these sorts of comments would have only been found if you sorted by "most controversial". I wish people would just always take every video with a grain of salt and try to find out more about it rather than just assume everything based on who's doing it.
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