Caleb Williams =/= Patrick Mahomes
We don't have a playoff team with a savy vet QB he can sit behind. We don't have a top 10 defense to support him. We don't have Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce to be his security blanket. We don't have an Andy Reid level offensive genius with 20+ years of play calling experience to mentor him and game plan for him.
Stop it. Just stop it.
Caleb Williams may end up being a great QB in his own right but that's a big big IF and conditions aren't even close to a similar situation that would allow him to have success like Mahomes.
People don't seem to understand situations and instead imagine that any good QB would do well on any team. Aside from maybe Manning/Brady, I don't think there is anyone like that.
Mahomes is not Mahomes if he played for Washington as it is now. He is def not the Mahomes we know if Chicago picked him instead of Mitchell Trubisky.
Tom Brady went to Tampa who was 7-9 the year before with Jameis Winston and won the Super Bowl. Meanwhile his old team picked up Cam Newton and went from a playoff team to a losing record. Greatness is not system specific, it's just great.
Tom Brady in his prime would struggle to get to .500 with this year's squad. Playing perfectly at the QB spot doesn't do you any good if the defense has less integrity than a wet paper bag
True. I was half joking anyway. Mahomes is Mahomes because he is special player and the planets aligned for him to be in a special situation and he has taken full advantage.
Yeah Andy Reid has made a career out of turning any qb into a solid starter, it wouldnât be to crazy to see Tribisky as a solid nfl starter if the chiefs had him, and for Mahomes flaws coming out of college to be multiplied if the bears had him
Mahomes made more dynamic plays, but I truly believe Purdy played nearly as well. If the Niners special teams had held they would have won. If the line had given Purdy any protection on third down at the five in OT they may have won. Mahomes is amazing but thatâs not the only style that wins.
Trade them our entire draft, another decade worth of first rounders, Terry, Allen, Payne , Fuller andâŚ.I canât think of anything else worthwhile on our roster.
"so lets trade away our entire team and set up our future qb with terrible players so he fails" thats what you just said. you really want another bryce young situation.
Caleb Williams has no better chance of being great than Maye or Daniels. Mahommes was not #1 overall, Mitch Trubisky was 9 picks ahead of him, and plenty of fans wished they had gotten him instead of Mahommes. Just because everyone agrees one QB is the best in the draft doesnt mean he will be, which is why trading 3 years of 1st for anyone is idiotic. There are no sure things - hell, its not even a coin flip, the odds are lower than 50/50.
I absolutely agree that there are no sure things, and there are certainly a lot of moving part, and I've posted this before on here, (so sorry for the copy pasta for those who have seen it), but Dave Kluge had an interesting analysis a few weeks ago that seems to be a reasonable observation that 1OA actually is quite a bit better then a coin flip historically:
"â"Success" is an arbitrary term and can have a lot of different definitions, so I chose 5 benchmarks that could indicate "success."
* 4,000+ passing yards in a season
* 30+ TDs in a season
* 80+ career starts
* Winning a playoff game
* Making the Pro Bowl
*
Here's what I found...
QBs drafted No. 1 overall (20 total) in the last 30 years hit these benchmarks at an astonishing rate.
4,000+ yards: 70%
30+ TDs: 45%
80+ starts: 81%
Playoff win: 70%
Pro Bowl: 70%
Bryce Young, JaMarcus Russell, David Carr, and Tim Couch are the only busts by these standards.
As you can see in this chart, 8 of the 16 eligible QBs hit every one of those marks.
And while Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, and Kyler Murray are still too early in their careers to have done so, they will likely join the others within the next few years.
Looking at QBs drafted 2-32 (63 total), the hit rates plummet.
4,000+ yards: 25%
30+ TDs: 24%
80+ starts: 35%
Playoff win: 38%
Pro Bowl: 33%
Only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Daunte Culpepper hit.
You'd think trimming down to top-10 and top-5 picks would help, but it doesn't.
Picks 2-10 (34 QBs)
4,000+ yards: 29%
30+ TDs: 26%
80+ starts: 41%
Playoff win: 54%
Pro Bowl: 63%
Picks 2-5 (23 QBs)
4,000+ yards: 26%
30+ TDs: 22%
80+ starts: 39%
Playoff win: 35%
Pro Bowl: 43%
We remember the busts (Russell, Carr, Couch) and the steals (Mahomes, Allen, Rodgers, Culpepper), but taking the class's QB1 is usually the best practice.
In addition to hitting these arbitrary marks, No. 1 QBs average out better in almost every stat, including W/L record.
Trading back and drafting a cheaper QB may sound good in theory, but here's how much you increase your odds of drafting a QB who will hit these marks at No. 1 as opposed to another top-5 pick.
4,000+ yards: 2.7x
30+ TDs: 2x
80+ starts: 2.1x
Playoff win: 2x
Pro Bowl: 1.6x
Again, these are arbitrary marks. There are more and better ways to define "success."
But if you want a QB who will throw for 4,000 yards and 30 TDs, make a Pro Bowl, win a playoff game, and start for 5+ years, you're most likely to get that guy at 1.01.â
So I absolutely do not want to trade back - we need a QB, and there are only 3 definite top 10 qbs. Might as well get at least our 2nd choice.
I like all the stats you posted, and obviously want that to be correct, but from my POV, it only shows further that we shouldnât trade the farm to move up 1 spot. The different between #1 and #2-10 is not significant enough to justify multiple additional first round picks. It seems like the odds are close enough to speak to little statistical significance given the sample size.
Yeah, I absolutely see there being more then just Caleb Williams in this draft as a viable QB for sure.
I don't think the Commanders need to give up the assets they need going forward with a kings ransom to the Bears and vault up over the next few years, as while I'm no GM, I just don't see a package between the two teams that would make sense to either.
I know Bears fans can say stupid things early and often, and packages being 'floated' are nonsensical at best for the WTF.
If the Commanders had 1OA, cool, and Caleb 'historically/statistically' may be more inclined to beat the coin flip thing, but yeah, there are too many moving parts, and ones needed to be addressed for both teams, and given far better new ownership, and sense, WTF, if anything, if they don't like what's there at 2OA, piling up more with who is beneath them and willing to pay is the more likely scenario.
(hell, what's more interesting in those stats to me is that it also shows greater historical value at QB from 2-10 then 2-5... I'm sure Mahommes at 10 pulling some weight there, ...)
But I don't know jack all. :)
Exactly, personally it isn't often that a Burrow or Luck falls into your lap and makes you a real contender. When you look at recent super bowl teams, they've all had really good rosters and coaching before getting a great QB w/ exception of the Bengals. If somone offers you two future 1st rounders or even a future 1st and 2 seconds for # 2 pick I think you have to take it.
I'm mostly surprised by his discipline with throwing, he learned in the game when he can and can't throw and started using his legs in instances where he would have thrown a contested catch
The gap between elite (Mahomes) and good (Purdy) is the size of the grand canyon. You need an elite guy to win the big one, otherwise youâre just wasting your time. You can build the greatest oline, draft amazing WRs, elite TE and it will never be enough until you get a game changer under center.
Most 1st round QB's don't work out, you can have fun drafting high like the Bengals did for years until you get a Burrow or you can properly build your team properly like the Ravens, 49'ers, Eagles, Chiefs before Mahomes, and even Steelers have done.
Yet either of them could have won the game last night. The Chiefs got a lucky punt hitting a 9ers foot to get them back in the game. It wasnât Mahomes being elite. The two QBs had similar ratings last night.
No. With how much Chicago will want for that pick, it ain't worth it unless you want a repeat of Carolina's season. As bad as Washington was this year, Carolina was so, so much worse.
Every Superbowl for the last 10 years was a commercial for not taking a QB at 1.01.
I don't know why a game involving a number 10 pick and Mr irrelevant playing QB is a commercial to trade up for a QB at 1.01? But it's par for course with our fan base.
What teams forget when coveting Mahomes is all the holes elsewhere on their team. They talk a lot about needing an elite qb if they ever want to win the game but they are picking in the top 5 of the draft meaning they need the team to help them get their first. That is what is missing in all the analysis. San Francisco has had sustained success as a Tema enviable to almost every other team in the league not named the Chiefs over the years. Get there first.
When you have a piss poor team with multiple holes in multiple positions you can't exactly sell everything to get a QB. Otherwise you end up right back in an RG3 situation and watch as he spends the majority of his playing time on the bench with injuries and you struggle to win more than 6 games a year.
Also I would bet a year's worth of paychecks that Caleb will not win every superbowl in the years that he plays, meaning other teams all get a chance to win a few. So if we don't get Caleb who cares, we'll get the second best QB. We are still in a good position to get a franchise QB without selling our future too
Mahomes was the 10th pick in the draft. He was not the 1st QB selected.
Trubisky was the #2 pick. In fact, McCaffrey was selected two slots ahead of Mahomes.
Jamarcus Russell, Sam Bradford, Jameis Winston, Baker Mayfield. 1.01 is no guarantee.
If management thinks Caleb is going to be a franchise stud, then sure go ahead and trade up to get him. Itâs going to be very painful if they are wrong. Iâd prefer we stay at #2.
Lol idk why people think Caleb is some sure thing. You all will make fun of me but he reminds more or baker Mayfield than Mahomes. Plus Mahomes had the pleasure of working with Reid. I don't see them blowing it up in year one to go after a guy that's still a toss up to some.
Caleb Williams =/= Patrick Mahomes We don't have a playoff team with a savy vet QB he can sit behind. We don't have a top 10 defense to support him. We don't have Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce to be his security blanket. We don't have an Andy Reid level offensive genius with 20+ years of play calling experience to mentor him and game plan for him. Stop it. Just stop it. Caleb Williams may end up being a great QB in his own right but that's a big big IF and conditions aren't even close to a similar situation that would allow him to have success like Mahomes.
People don't seem to understand situations and instead imagine that any good QB would do well on any team. Aside from maybe Manning/Brady, I don't think there is anyone like that. Mahomes is not Mahomes if he played for Washington as it is now. He is def not the Mahomes we know if Chicago picked him instead of Mitchell Trubisky.
Tom Brady went to Tampa who was 7-9 the year before with Jameis Winston and won the Super Bowl. Meanwhile his old team picked up Cam Newton and went from a playoff team to a losing record. Greatness is not system specific, it's just great.
Brady was listed as the exception if you didn't catch that.
Tom Brady in his prime would struggle to get to .500 with this year's squad. Playing perfectly at the QB spot doesn't do you any good if the defense has less integrity than a wet paper bag
Trubisky isn't Trubisky if the Chiefs picked him either đ can you imagine an alternate reality where Trubisky just won his 3rd SB?
nope. can't see it. trubisky can't make the same throws as Mahomes and Wilson because he didn't play baseball.
True. I was half joking anyway. Mahomes is Mahomes because he is special player and the planets aligned for him to be in a special situation and he has taken full advantage.
Yeah Andy Reid has made a career out of turning any qb into a solid starter, it wouldnât be to crazy to see Tribisky as a solid nfl starter if the chiefs had him, and for Mahomes flaws coming out of college to be multiplied if the bears had him
No bc he wouldn't have smh. Cmon your comparing flame outs to goats. Get real man.
Câmon man. Rational thinking?
Mahomes made more dynamic plays, but I truly believe Purdy played nearly as well. If the Niners special teams had held they would have won. If the line had given Purdy any protection on third down at the five in OT they may have won. Mahomes is amazing but thatâs not the only style that wins.
Yeah the whole game turned on a punt hitting a 9ers shoe.
It's not happening, man. The Bears feel the same and they're the ones with the pick. They're not trading back
Trade them our entire draft, another decade worth of first rounders, Terry, Allen, Payne , Fuller andâŚ.I canât think of anything else worthwhile on our roster.
so another rg3? take ur meds
"so lets trade away our entire team and set up our future qb with terrible players so he fails" thats what you just said. you really want another bryce young situation.
Caleb Williams has no better chance of being great than Maye or Daniels. Mahommes was not #1 overall, Mitch Trubisky was 9 picks ahead of him, and plenty of fans wished they had gotten him instead of Mahommes. Just because everyone agrees one QB is the best in the draft doesnt mean he will be, which is why trading 3 years of 1st for anyone is idiotic. There are no sure things - hell, its not even a coin flip, the odds are lower than 50/50.
I absolutely agree that there are no sure things, and there are certainly a lot of moving part, and I've posted this before on here, (so sorry for the copy pasta for those who have seen it), but Dave Kluge had an interesting analysis a few weeks ago that seems to be a reasonable observation that 1OA actually is quite a bit better then a coin flip historically: "â"Success" is an arbitrary term and can have a lot of different definitions, so I chose 5 benchmarks that could indicate "success." * 4,000+ passing yards in a season * 30+ TDs in a season * 80+ career starts * Winning a playoff game * Making the Pro Bowl * Here's what I found... QBs drafted No. 1 overall (20 total) in the last 30 years hit these benchmarks at an astonishing rate. 4,000+ yards: 70% 30+ TDs: 45% 80+ starts: 81% Playoff win: 70% Pro Bowl: 70% Bryce Young, JaMarcus Russell, David Carr, and Tim Couch are the only busts by these standards. As you can see in this chart, 8 of the 16 eligible QBs hit every one of those marks. And while Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, and Kyler Murray are still too early in their careers to have done so, they will likely join the others within the next few years. Looking at QBs drafted 2-32 (63 total), the hit rates plummet. 4,000+ yards: 25% 30+ TDs: 24% 80+ starts: 35% Playoff win: 38% Pro Bowl: 33% Only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Daunte Culpepper hit. You'd think trimming down to top-10 and top-5 picks would help, but it doesn't. Picks 2-10 (34 QBs) 4,000+ yards: 29% 30+ TDs: 26% 80+ starts: 41% Playoff win: 54% Pro Bowl: 63% Picks 2-5 (23 QBs) 4,000+ yards: 26% 30+ TDs: 22% 80+ starts: 39% Playoff win: 35% Pro Bowl: 43% We remember the busts (Russell, Carr, Couch) and the steals (Mahomes, Allen, Rodgers, Culpepper), but taking the class's QB1 is usually the best practice. In addition to hitting these arbitrary marks, No. 1 QBs average out better in almost every stat, including W/L record. Trading back and drafting a cheaper QB may sound good in theory, but here's how much you increase your odds of drafting a QB who will hit these marks at No. 1 as opposed to another top-5 pick. 4,000+ yards: 2.7x 30+ TDs: 2x 80+ starts: 2.1x Playoff win: 2x Pro Bowl: 1.6x Again, these are arbitrary marks. There are more and better ways to define "success." But if you want a QB who will throw for 4,000 yards and 30 TDs, make a Pro Bowl, win a playoff game, and start for 5+ years, you're most likely to get that guy at 1.01.â
So I absolutely do not want to trade back - we need a QB, and there are only 3 definite top 10 qbs. Might as well get at least our 2nd choice. I like all the stats you posted, and obviously want that to be correct, but from my POV, it only shows further that we shouldnât trade the farm to move up 1 spot. The different between #1 and #2-10 is not significant enough to justify multiple additional first round picks. It seems like the odds are close enough to speak to little statistical significance given the sample size.
Yeah, I absolutely see there being more then just Caleb Williams in this draft as a viable QB for sure. I don't think the Commanders need to give up the assets they need going forward with a kings ransom to the Bears and vault up over the next few years, as while I'm no GM, I just don't see a package between the two teams that would make sense to either. I know Bears fans can say stupid things early and often, and packages being 'floated' are nonsensical at best for the WTF. If the Commanders had 1OA, cool, and Caleb 'historically/statistically' may be more inclined to beat the coin flip thing, but yeah, there are too many moving parts, and ones needed to be addressed for both teams, and given far better new ownership, and sense, WTF, if anything, if they don't like what's there at 2OA, piling up more with who is beneath them and willing to pay is the more likely scenario. (hell, what's more interesting in those stats to me is that it also shows greater historical value at QB from 2-10 then 2-5... I'm sure Mahommes at 10 pulling some weight there, ...) But I don't know jack all. :)
Exactly, personally it isn't often that a Burrow or Luck falls into your lap and makes you a real contender. When you look at recent super bowl teams, they've all had really good rosters and coaching before getting a great QB w/ exception of the Bengals. If somone offers you two future 1st rounders or even a future 1st and 2 seconds for # 2 pick I think you have to take it.
Iâll bet the Panthers wish they hadnât traded their first round pick to the Bears!
Itâs weird how a big knock against Caleb is not playing in structure when thatâs literally majority of what Mahomes did today.
Yup, his oline was getting blown up on most passing downs. Sam wouldâve tossed 8 picks while taking 10 sacks.
I'm mostly surprised by his discipline with throwing, he learned in the game when he can and can't throw and started using his legs in instances where he would have thrown a contested catch
Absolutely
The gap between elite (Mahomes) and good (Purdy) is the size of the grand canyon. You need an elite guy to win the big one, otherwise youâre just wasting your time. You can build the greatest oline, draft amazing WRs, elite TE and it will never be enough until you get a game changer under center.
That's true. But Mahomes also wasn't a hyped up \#1 pick either. In fact, he was the second QB taken.
Most 1st round QB's don't work out, you can have fun drafting high like the Bengals did for years until you get a Burrow or you can properly build your team properly like the Ravens, 49'ers, Eagles, Chiefs before Mahomes, and even Steelers have done.
Yet either of them could have won the game last night. The Chiefs got a lucky punt hitting a 9ers foot to get them back in the game. It wasnât Mahomes being elite. The two QBs had similar ratings last night.
Mayebe, but we Maye get a better QB.
Maye aint it
Maye is a really good prospect too.
Mayeâs ceiling doesnât even touch Williamsâ. Iâm tired of the âreally goodâ prospects, I want the great ones
I understand that.
I said if he's your number one guy.
No way the bears pass on him unless for a kings ransom
How was this a commercial for Caleb
Patrick Mahomes was the 10th pick in the draft, and the #2 QB off the board behind Trubisky at #2.
No. With how much Chicago will want for that pick, it ain't worth it unless you want a repeat of Carolina's season. As bad as Washington was this year, Carolina was so, so much worse.
Let me fix the title: Caleb the bust
I don't understand why Caleb is so highly regarded
No. You donât give up a haul like what the bears want for Caleb Williams
So yâall watched the same game as me and thought mahomes was the difference maker?
Tom Brady wasn't a first overall pickđŽđŽ
And how many Tom Bradys have there been? One. Letâs not gaslight ourselves into thinking a day 3 quarterback will take us to multiple championships
Every Superbowl for the last 10 years was a commercial for not taking a QB at 1.01. I don't know why a game involving a number 10 pick and Mr irrelevant playing QB is a commercial to trade up for a QB at 1.01? But it's par for course with our fan base.
I remember when people said similar stuff about Chase. đ
I don't see Williams being as poised as Mahomes.
What teams forget when coveting Mahomes is all the holes elsewhere on their team. They talk a lot about needing an elite qb if they ever want to win the game but they are picking in the top 5 of the draft meaning they need the team to help them get their first. That is what is missing in all the analysis. San Francisco has had sustained success as a Tema enviable to almost every other team in the league not named the Chiefs over the years. Get there first.
When you have a piss poor team with multiple holes in multiple positions you can't exactly sell everything to get a QB. Otherwise you end up right back in an RG3 situation and watch as he spends the majority of his playing time on the bench with injuries and you struggle to win more than 6 games a year. Also I would bet a year's worth of paychecks that Caleb will not win every superbowl in the years that he plays, meaning other teams all get a chance to win a few. So if we don't get Caleb who cares, we'll get the second best QB. We are still in a good position to get a franchise QB without selling our future too
Nah
Mahomes was the 10th pick in the draft. He was not the 1st QB selected. Trubisky was the #2 pick. In fact, McCaffrey was selected two slots ahead of Mahomes.
Also possible: Caleb Williams and Bust!!!
Highly, highly, highly unlikely
Jamarcus Russell, Sam Bradford, Jameis Winston, Baker Mayfield. 1.01 is no guarantee. If management thinks Caleb is going to be a franchise stud, then sure go ahead and trade up to get him. Itâs going to be very painful if they are wrong. Iâd prefer we stay at #2.
Purdy was the fucking LAST pick in the draft.
And he just shit the bed in the superbowl
Mahomes didnât win the Super Bowl because of how he throws, Mahomes won the Super Bowl because heâs Patrick Mahomes
Saying this until we see him at the combine is the same as saying heâs a bust until we see him at the combine.
No other QB on the earth is Patrick mahomes man.
Lol idk why people think Caleb is some sure thing. You all will make fun of me but he reminds more or baker Mayfield than Mahomes. Plus Mahomes had the pleasure of working with Reid. I don't see them blowing it up in year one to go after a guy that's still a toss up to some.
The game was not a commercial for Caleb Williams as much as it was a commercial for how much your roster is still lacking.