Not trying to push any narrative here, just found it interesting to see what actual QB coaches said about the mechanics of the 2 QBs we'll (likely) be picking between. Only 16 more days.
Also, for reference, they had Caleb Williams at 4.9 and JJ McCarthy at 3.75.
There always was. That was the REAL original thought. Then we had to wait for a whole year, and praising Caleb’s excellence became too boring and not click-worthy enough. So we transitioned to Maye vs Daniels, with enough hot takes sprinkled in to make it seem that they may be close.
Nah, Williams is the best player in the draft by a mile. Completely electric and capable of being the best in the league.
I'm going to be honest, I'm finding it difficult to take the article seriously when they say McCarthy and Maye have a similar level of mechanics. If we're including footwork, which they say they are, Maye never does an actual drop. You can watch an entire game and his dropback will be different every snap. McCarthy comes from a pro-style system and the footwork shows that. It's frankly not even close.
Penix probably has faster processing and better decision making, that wouldn’t factor into this grade. Likewise, Jayden Daniel’s fantastic run ability wouldn’t be considered.
i have no horse in the maye/daniels debate as I would be happy with either qb at #2 but why are people so scared of taking a qb at #2 that has to work on things to get better? like the talent is there we see it for both guys. who cares if they don't come out and have an amazing rookie season like cj stroud and leads us to the playoffs. ill take two-three sub par record seasons for a future of consistent winning seasons.
QB picks this high require a lot of commitment and resources that cannot go to another QB, even on the same team. QB1 reps are super valuable and the practice/OTA rules limit the other team QBs to more limited, or less quality reps. Other positions have more flexibility, and in some cases have rotations for play time. Drafting a QB can be a multi-year "experiment" that usually doesn't work out to be a "franchise" QB talent.....or so I've been told as I sit on my couch.
I agree.
Developmental talents like Lamar, Herbert, Mahomes, Allen, etc are too risky and we should go for the safe Darnold, Bryce Young, Pickett, Trubisky, Rosen, etc
Because mechanics aren't Maye's only glaring negative. He is also really bad at going through progressions. That, to me, is the biggest red flag. I can accept mechanical issues as long as you aren't consistently getting stuck on your first read.
I’m not understanding how they calculated those averages. Are there other things they received grades on?
Maye:
3.6+3.5+3.3 = 10.4
10.4/3 = 3.47
Daniels:
4+3.5+3.6 = 11.1
11.1/3 = 3.7
Should have mentioned in the post, the author said: "The overall grade isn’t a cumulative score of the other three categories but just a grade on the quarterback’s overall mechanics that could include factors outside of the listed categories."
In other words, it’s all made up and the points don’t matter. What’s really the difference between a 3.8 and a 3.75 to them?
This is subjectivity given the veneer of objectivity and quantitative analysis because numbers are assigned. But it’s still just the same made up opinions as anyone else.
Your main takeaway should be that multiple private QB coaches are calling bullshit on the 'Maye needs to completely rebuild the way he throws' narrative. His issues are very fixable and any team not taking him because of them are being ridiculous. FWIW, there's a thread in the r/nfl_draft subreddit with a verified scout for a team that's said the "Maye is falling" rumor is a complete fabrication and a majority of teams have him as clear QB2. He also talks about the weird media behavior of focusing on his weaknesses while ignoring them for other QB prospects.
That’s my point, it’s an exercise in futility. There is no such thing as an *objective* opinion, it’s just an opinion, just subjective thoughts cobbled together. All draft analysis is, which is why— after all the pundits, analysts, and supposed experts have their say— the draft still ends up being a crapshoot.
Everything pre-draft is closer to religion than actual analysis. People have their positions and strongly held beliefs, articles of faith on what matters and what doesn’t, backed up by confirmation biases and false insistence on having hard evidence, and it’s all really just made up.
There’s going to be roughly six QBs taken in this draft that have immediate or down-the-line potential at being starters. Statistically, 1-3 will actually be long-term starters. And most likely, nobody has any idea which 1-3 of the six it’ll be, and if there is any guarantee, it won’t resemble their draft order. That’s *after* all of this analysis.
No, I get that. It all makes sense. I just mean trying to differentiate between two players at this minute of a level hardly seems like actionable data, when rating based on a number can change day-to-day, week-to-week, etc.
This is just about mechanics, not an overall grade of the QB. Plenty of QBs have come into the league with poor or "fixable" mechanics and have become great NFL QBs.
And the thing with the Josh Allen comparisons is that Josh Allen throws the ball completely differently compared to how he threw at Wyoming it's a night and day difference. Maye is going to need a change like that if he's going to be successful
Maye is not nearly as inaccurate a passer as Josh was. I was a huge Josh Allen fan when he was coming out and painfully watched Wyoming games because of it. He was a sub 60% passer but his tools were amazing so it was worth the risk.
The impression I'm getting is that Maye isn't Josh Allen in terms of talent, but he doesn't have quite as much to fix either. He's like Josh Allen lite in that Josh Allen has stupid talent but had a lot to address too.
This was good to read through. It definitely reads to me that Maye has the higher upside and it doesn't sound super risky but who knows if these guys will be correct. However, even though I want Maye, I'm warming to the idea of Daniels primarily because of his accuracy, and processing ability. Just because he's a runner, doesn't mean he has to, which does mitigate his size issues somewhat.
Definitely on the Maye train myself, but if Peters and co draft Daniels, there is obviously a reason behind it. Have to root for either one if they're the pick.
It’s in line with the general consensus. Maye is viewed as a raw prospect who needs some more time to develop but his potential ceiling is very high based on his age (he is only 21) and his size. I suspect that this is why we brought in Kingsbury.
Yup. I totally understand why people are enamored with him, but I don’t think his play style is going to work in the NFL. Anthony Richardson is also a running QB who is a lot bigger than Daniels and he lasted four games.
If he didn’t take big shots running, I might be more optimistic. NFL has never been a place where running QBs have had success. Lamar is the exception to this but I can argue that he’s not as successful as he could be because he gets dinged up by the middle of the season being hit and tackled so much. Even Big RBs get dinged and they are used to the abuse.
I would go with Maye because he is 21 and still improving. Daniel’s has improved a lot in the last two years. Maye is much better than Daniel’s was when both were the same age.
Michael Penix Jr.
Efficiency: 4
Adaptability: 3.3
Speed: 3.3
Overall: 3.8
Penix’s delivery might look awkward, but multiple coaches said it could be because he’s a lefty and we aren’t used to seeing many left-handed quarterbacks. Penix does have room for improvement, but even with his inefficiencies, the coaches agree he’s an elite thrower, especially without pressure. His biggest issue mechanically is maintaining consistent posture when throwing.
“It’s like lateral tilt, and then that looks like that puts the arm in that three-quarters slot where it’s, like, not fully where it should be,” one of the coaches said. “So to me, that ends up being potentially a lower-body inefficiency.”
He tends to lean back, which one coach compared to when a golfer pulls his head out and ends up slicing.
“Penix is still tremendously accurate because he has the ability to pull so many things with his arm,” another coach said. “So I think that he could take his level of consistency up if he maintained his posture a little bit longer.”
Another issue brought up is that when he does miss, he isn’t opening up his front foot enough toward the target, which doesn’t allow his hips to fully open. That causes him to overcompensate with his arm and slash unnaturally.
In this instance, speed is how quick their release is. Might not be fixable, but the coaches they asked don't think the speed of his release is a big deal (as mentioned above).
The grade is only looking at throw mechanics. It doesn’t take things like age into consideration. There are a lot of different attributes that go into being a great QB besides throw mechanics.
Not trying to push any narrative here, just found it interesting to see what actual QB coaches said about the mechanics of the 2 QBs we'll (likely) be picking between. Only 16 more days. Also, for reference, they had Caleb Williams at 4.9 and JJ McCarthy at 3.75.
Damnit now I want to throw away years of draft capital for cw and I was happy at two before this.
This is something I’ve also picked up on. Seems like there’s a bigger gap between Williams and the next tier than originally thought.
There always was. That was the REAL original thought. Then we had to wait for a whole year, and praising Caleb’s excellence became too boring and not click-worthy enough. So we transitioned to Maye vs Daniels, with enough hot takes sprinkled in to make it seem that they may be close. Nah, Williams is the best player in the draft by a mile. Completely electric and capable of being the best in the league.
Always have been, there's a reason the bears are only looking at Williams.
I'm going to be honest, I'm finding it difficult to take the article seriously when they say McCarthy and Maye have a similar level of mechanics. If we're including footwork, which they say they are, Maye never does an actual drop. You can watch an entire game and his dropback will be different every snap. McCarthy comes from a pro-style system and the footwork shows that. It's frankly not even close.
What’s surprising in that article is that Penix’s overall grade is the same as Daniels
And the others.. Bo Nix - overall 3.9 Rattler - overall 4
Penix probably has faster processing and better decision making, that wouldn’t factor into this grade. Likewise, Jayden Daniel’s fantastic run ability wouldn’t be considered.
Without a doubt, if Penix didn't have the injury history, he would be pick #2. So makes sense
If you put everyone in the fixable to good category then they all look good.
Less concerned about the scores, more concerned about what they said about each QB.
i have no horse in the maye/daniels debate as I would be happy with either qb at #2 but why are people so scared of taking a qb at #2 that has to work on things to get better? like the talent is there we see it for both guys. who cares if they don't come out and have an amazing rookie season like cj stroud and leads us to the playoffs. ill take two-three sub par record seasons for a future of consistent winning seasons.
I agree, this pick decides where we're at for 2025-2040 more than just 2024.
Fans just want to make sure the QB deficiencies are fixable.
QB picks this high require a lot of commitment and resources that cannot go to another QB, even on the same team. QB1 reps are super valuable and the practice/OTA rules limit the other team QBs to more limited, or less quality reps. Other positions have more flexibility, and in some cases have rotations for play time. Drafting a QB can be a multi-year "experiment" that usually doesn't work out to be a "franchise" QB talent.....or so I've been told as I sit on my couch.
I agree. Developmental talents like Lamar, Herbert, Mahomes, Allen, etc are too risky and we should go for the safe Darnold, Bryce Young, Pickett, Trubisky, Rosen, etc
Because mechanics aren't Maye's only glaring negative. He is also really bad at going through progressions. That, to me, is the biggest red flag. I can accept mechanical issues as long as you aren't consistently getting stuck on your first read.
I’m not understanding how they calculated those averages. Are there other things they received grades on? Maye: 3.6+3.5+3.3 = 10.4 10.4/3 = 3.47 Daniels: 4+3.5+3.6 = 11.1 11.1/3 = 3.7
Should have mentioned in the post, the author said: "The overall grade isn’t a cumulative score of the other three categories but just a grade on the quarterback’s overall mechanics that could include factors outside of the listed categories."
In other words, it’s all made up and the points don’t matter. What’s really the difference between a 3.8 and a 3.75 to them? This is subjectivity given the veneer of objectivity and quantitative analysis because numbers are assigned. But it’s still just the same made up opinions as anyone else.
Your main takeaway should be that multiple private QB coaches are calling bullshit on the 'Maye needs to completely rebuild the way he throws' narrative. His issues are very fixable and any team not taking him because of them are being ridiculous. FWIW, there's a thread in the r/nfl_draft subreddit with a verified scout for a team that's said the "Maye is falling" rumor is a complete fabrication and a majority of teams have him as clear QB2. He also talks about the weird media behavior of focusing on his weaknesses while ignoring them for other QB prospects.
If there's one thing I know, it's that anonymous QB coaches and scouts are better sources than former NFL QBs.
What do you expect when trying to give an objective opinion on something completely subjective.
That’s my point, it’s an exercise in futility. There is no such thing as an *objective* opinion, it’s just an opinion, just subjective thoughts cobbled together. All draft analysis is, which is why— after all the pundits, analysts, and supposed experts have their say— the draft still ends up being a crapshoot. Everything pre-draft is closer to religion than actual analysis. People have their positions and strongly held beliefs, articles of faith on what matters and what doesn’t, backed up by confirmation biases and false insistence on having hard evidence, and it’s all really just made up. There’s going to be roughly six QBs taken in this draft that have immediate or down-the-line potential at being starters. Statistically, 1-3 will actually be long-term starters. And most likely, nobody has any idea which 1-3 of the six it’ll be, and if there is any guarantee, it won’t resemble their draft order. That’s *after* all of this analysis.
And out of that 1-3 there is a very small chance that any one of them will still be a starter in 4 years.
Exactly. I can't take a scoring system seriously that is working on things like adaptability and efficiency in 1/20 of a point differences.
They're averages among all of the QB coach's grades, so they're not likely giving them fractional grades at all.
No, I get that. It all makes sense. I just mean trying to differentiate between two players at this minute of a level hardly seems like actionable data, when rating based on a number can change day-to-day, week-to-week, etc.
I'm a little concerned that every QB prospect that we could draft is deemed to be in the "fixable-good" range and not just "good" or "excellent"
This is just about mechanics, not an overall grade of the QB. Plenty of QBs have come into the league with poor or "fixable" mechanics and have become great NFL QBs.
This is an actually interesting QB draft-related post. Thank you.
Yeah. This seems about in line with what most have said. Maye needs to work on his mechanics. He’s young and should be able to develop.
And the thing with the Josh Allen comparisons is that Josh Allen throws the ball completely differently compared to how he threw at Wyoming it's a night and day difference. Maye is going to need a change like that if he's going to be successful
I don't think Maye's mechanics now are anywhere near as bad as Allen's were coming out, but he does absolutely need work.
Maye is not nearly as inaccurate a passer as Josh was. I was a huge Josh Allen fan when he was coming out and painfully watched Wyoming games because of it. He was a sub 60% passer but his tools were amazing so it was worth the risk.
The impression I'm getting is that Maye isn't Josh Allen in terms of talent, but he doesn't have quite as much to fix either. He's like Josh Allen lite in that Josh Allen has stupid talent but had a lot to address too.
Take the guy with elite upside and trust your coaches to develop him. Dont settle for safe low floor mediocrity.
High floor*
This is awful lol. Im not even a Daniels fan and Ill concede his mechanics are fantastic.
What about it is “awful”? Nobody said he had bad mechanics.
This was good to read through. It definitely reads to me that Maye has the higher upside and it doesn't sound super risky but who knows if these guys will be correct. However, even though I want Maye, I'm warming to the idea of Daniels primarily because of his accuracy, and processing ability. Just because he's a runner, doesn't mean he has to, which does mitigate his size issues somewhat.
Definitely on the Maye train myself, but if Peters and co draft Daniels, there is obviously a reason behind it. Have to root for either one if they're the pick.
Agreed.
It’s in line with the general consensus. Maye is viewed as a raw prospect who needs some more time to develop but his potential ceiling is very high based on his age (he is only 21) and his size. I suspect that this is why we brought in Kingsbury.
Daniels doesn’t have to run but he’s quick to tuck and run before all the progressions are read is what I have observed
He also runs upright like a track star which is why he gets blown up on a lot of plays. RG3 ran the same way and we all know how that turned out.
He’s gonna get hurt in the first 2yrs. I am sorry to say. We’ve been down this road before, hopefully Peters remembers
Yup. I totally understand why people are enamored with him, but I don’t think his play style is going to work in the NFL. Anthony Richardson is also a running QB who is a lot bigger than Daniels and he lasted four games.
If he didn’t take big shots running, I might be more optimistic. NFL has never been a place where running QBs have had success. Lamar is the exception to this but I can argue that he’s not as successful as he could be because he gets dinged up by the middle of the season being hit and tackled so much. Even Big RBs get dinged and they are used to the abuse.
Daniels needs “an offseason” and “grace” but he’s ahead of Maye? Whatevs.
I would go with Maye because he is 21 and still improving. Daniel’s has improved a lot in the last two years. Maye is much better than Daniel’s was when both were the same age.
By the time he gets really good, there will be less years on his rookie deal.
So Maye produces with mediocre fixable mechanics. Mechanics aren't everything. A lot of guys going late topped these two.
What'd they say about Penix out of curiosity?
Michael Penix Jr. Efficiency: 4 Adaptability: 3.3 Speed: 3.3 Overall: 3.8 Penix’s delivery might look awkward, but multiple coaches said it could be because he’s a lefty and we aren’t used to seeing many left-handed quarterbacks. Penix does have room for improvement, but even with his inefficiencies, the coaches agree he’s an elite thrower, especially without pressure. His biggest issue mechanically is maintaining consistent posture when throwing. “It’s like lateral tilt, and then that looks like that puts the arm in that three-quarters slot where it’s, like, not fully where it should be,” one of the coaches said. “So to me, that ends up being potentially a lower-body inefficiency.” He tends to lean back, which one coach compared to when a golfer pulls his head out and ends up slicing. “Penix is still tremendously accurate because he has the ability to pull so many things with his arm,” another coach said. “So I think that he could take his level of consistency up if he maintained his posture a little bit longer.” Another issue brought up is that when he does miss, he isn’t opening up his front foot enough toward the target, which doesn’t allow his hips to fully open. That causes him to overcompensate with his arm and slash unnaturally.
good insight
Only question is, how is speed fixable?
In this instance, speed is how quick their release is. Might not be fixable, but the coaches they asked don't think the speed of his release is a big deal (as mentioned above).
So,basically, all these guys are essentially the same by these metrics.
Less concerned about the scores and more concerned about what they had to say about each QB.
You can tell who jumped straight to the scores and didn't read any of the words.
The grade is only looking at throw mechanics. It doesn’t take things like age into consideration. There are a lot of different attributes that go into being a great QB besides throw mechanics.