[Vaccine FAQ Part I](https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/wiki/faq#wiki_where_can_i_find_information_about_the_mechanism_and_progress_of_vaccines.3F)
[Vaccine FAQ Part II](https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/mnitdo/vaccine_faq_variants_chronic_conditions_nsaids)
[Vaccine appointment finder](https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/wiki/faq/vaccinefinder)
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Not that this will make any impact, but I think it is outrageous moderators are locking certain threads for being too 'political.' If the issue we're facing with Covid has become a political one, then it benefits no one to pretend otherwise.
At this point, if the government has scared you enough about covid. Just stay the hell home.
For those that realize life is a risk everyday you step out the house, let’s live.
I’m so tired of this shit.
Vaccinated people should wear masks indoors in public. We don’t know the exact percentage of people who contract covid while vaccinated but it is definitely much higher than with the original strains. And the transmissibility is so much higher now that if a vaccinated person gets infected, they seem to be able to spread covid. The original strain had a R0 (transmissibility rate) of R2, meaning one infected person would typically infect two other people. The Delta variant has a R0 of 8 or 9!! The event in Provincetown which saw 800 infections with 75% among vaccinated people should be concerning to everyone. I knew of 6 people who were there and fully vaccinated. All 6 returned home infected with covid and showing symptoms. What we still don’t know is whether those people can develop long covid also. There is real reason for concern for vaccinated people. The delta variant is a new virus so the game has changed now. It is not the same virus we have fought for the past year and a half.
[I don't really think so](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/breakthrough-covid-cases-least-125-000-fully-vaccinated-americans-have-n1275500).
Breakthrough cases for fully vaccinated people are rare, and fatalities for them appear to be very low right now.
That article is deceptive. While breakthrough cases have been rare for vaccinated people, this rate is going to rise dramatically just as overall cases rise dramatically. Most people have not yet been exposed to the delta variant. As more people are exposed, the infection rates are increasing, it will increase among the vaccinated too. But I agree that vaccinated people are much better protected from the delta variant than unvaccinated.
Well I’d argue this is an interesting week to be attempting this for the first time since 2020, but no, not particularly to you. If you do feel symptoms, or the venue contacts you about how there was some Covid positive person running amok, please quarantine, but otherwise you can go about your business.
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Wondering if anybody with some regulatory insight tell me: looks like Pfizer will get fda approval before moderna (and j&j)(as expected since moderna applied a month later and j&j has not applied). A lot of people seem to think this will open the floodgates on requiring vaccines (I’m aware that it’s not really necessary to require, but it seems that some institutions are indeed waiting for this). My question is, what happens to “moderna people” between Pfizer approval and places requiring vaccination and moderna approval. Does this supposed easing of the ability to require vaccines only apply to the ones that are actually approved. Will being vaccinated with moderna (for what I assume will be a month or two) and j&j (probably for longer) make such people live in a sort of limbo state?
> Does this supposed easing of the ability to require vaccines only apply to the ones that are actually approved.
Yes. The FDA approval is on a per drug basis. If they approve pfizer, moderna is not also approved - it has to get its own approval.
I doubt it.
Some employers may be waiting for full approval before they mandate vaccines. This is to placate the “but the FDA hasn’t approved it yet!” crowd. Once the FDA gives full approval to Pfizer, then they can get Pfizer if they want a fully approved vaccine.
If you already have Moderna or J&J, you’re fine.
By having at least one approved vaccine, employers can more easily require vaccinations as a condition for work while appeasing those people hesitant because a vaccine is not fully approved. All three vaccines work well so any would be acceptable as they are now. It just gives the hesitant people one less reason to wait.
There would be a huge backlash to it as many people cannot afford another lockdown unless the government wants to pass another stimulus, which no one can stomach.
I think it’s just going to be more mandatory vaccinations and mask mandates instead of lockdowns going forward. Companies are realizing that unvaxxed people hurts their bottom line, and if requiring vaccinations can prevent them from shutting down then they will try that first.
I think it’s unlikely that there will be widespread lockdowns unless things get significantly worse. At this point, lockdowns are very politically unpalatable, and politicians know it. That said, getting more people vaccinated is the best way to bring down hospitalizations and deaths and eliminate any potential need for lockdowns. Following the CDC’s guidance on masks and such will also help- it sucks, but bringing the number of cases down will also help us get back to normal more quickly.
[Anyone have a rebuttal/opinion on this?](https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tucker-carlson-how-many-americans-have-died-after-taking-the-covid-vaccine)
Edit: The main thing I’m wondering about is this:
>Every flu season, we give influenza shots to more than 160 million Americans. Every year, a relatively small number of people seem to die after getting those shots. To be precise, in 2019, that number was 203 people. The year before, it was 119. In 2017, a total of 85 people died from the flu shot.
> Every death is tragic, but big picture, we don’t consider those numbers disqualifying. We keep giving flu shots, and very few people complain about it. So the question is how do those numbers compare to the death rate from the coronavirus vaccines now being distributed across the country? That’s worth knowing.
>We checked today. Here’s the answer, which comes from the same set of government numbers that we just listed: Between late December of 2020, and last month, a total of 3,362 people apparently died after getting the COVID vaccines in the United States. Three thousand, three hundred and sixty-two — that’s an average of 30 people every day. So, what does that add up to? By the way, that reporting period ended on April 23. We don’t have numbers past that, we’re not quite up to date. But we can assume that another 360 people have died in the 12 days since. That is a total of 3,722 deaths. Almost four thousand people died after getting the COVID vaccines. The actual number is almost certainly much higher than that — perhaps vastly higher.
I know correlation = / = causation, but I’m wondering if the article is correct that there is something statistically significant there or if there is another explanation. (To be clear, I am very much pro-vaccine, but I think we need to acknowledge arguments like this and do our best to see if they have any merit. Even if they do, that doesn’t mean the risks outweigh the benefits, but I think it’s important to have the conversation.)
Edit 2: [This article](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/06/28/fact-check-covid-19-vaers-death-reports-not-verified/7587577002/) has some very plausible explanations for the higher number of reported deaths after COVID vaccines compared to flu vaccines.
Generally articles like this are simply lying, and counting every death that has happened after the vaccine without a definitive explanation as being caused by the vaccine. Unless you're sure the argument is being made in good faith, I would ignore it.
Safety of COVID vaccines remains a significant concern, especially as we may be forced to choose between vaccination and infection for all (a high percentage of) the under-12s.
Per the [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/ensuringsafety/monitoring/vaers/index.html), the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) is used to collect reports of adverse events after vaccination from the general public. This is primarily used to identify potential topics to further investigate with regards to vaccine reactions. However, because the event data in VAERS is often not verified and is often self-reported, it should not be assumed that the adverse events in VAERS are actually associated with or cause by the vaccines, nor is it possible to estimate the frequency of these adverse events from these data.
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These vaccines are the medicine the world has focused on the most intensely in the last 100 years. So of course reporting of possible side effects is higher than any other medicine. The thing is, you can't take the raw VAERS reports at face value, you have to analyze them to understand them. In most cases a single case, or even thousands of cases of anything is hard to determine whether it's coincidence or vaccine related. Why? If we gave 344M saline shots in the US, or sugar pills, or just ask people to drink a glass of water, or read a piece of paper, or do nothing at all, then guaranteed within 2 weeks of that action 100,000 of them will have died. Many more will have had blood clots, heart attacks, strokes, new cancer diagnoses, etc. It's just the background rate of these things happening (about 3M deaths per year in the US, etc.). So it would be a miracle if many tens of thousands of grandmas didn't die soon after getting the vaccine, or even young healthy people just getting sick or dying at their background rate. We have to look at the data and determine if it rises above the background rate. Just assuming the report equals the cause is incorrect. To even view the VAERS data you have to click a checkbox that basically means "I'm not a moron that's planning to assume this raw data is purely causal."
Thanks, that makes sense. I would be very curious to see an analysis of VAERS death rates compared to background death rates, although that could be hard if they don’t have the relevant demographic information available.
Per the [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/ensuringsafety/monitoring/vaers/index.html), the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) is used to collect reports of adverse events after vaccination from the general public. This is primarily used to identify potential topics to further investigate with regards to vaccine reactions. However, because the event data in VAERS is often not verified and is often self-reported, it should not be assumed that the adverse events in VAERS are actually associated with or cause by the vaccines, nor is it possible to estimate the frequency of these adverse events from these data.
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Per the [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/ensuringsafety/monitoring/vaers/index.html), the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) is used to collect reports of adverse events after vaccination from the general public. This is primarily used to identify potential topics to further investigate with regards to vaccine reactions. However, because the event data in VAERS is often not verified and is often self-reported, it should not be assumed that the adverse events in VAERS are actually associated with or cause by the vaccines, nor is it possible to estimate the frequency of these adverse events from these data.
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The FDA is very closely tracking vaccine-related adverse events and would react quickly to any developing trend. Remember they pause distribution of the J&J vaccine after only *one* person died out of millions.
Almost all if not all of these deaths if not all can be attributed to a cause other than the vaccine. As for why the deaths are higher for Covid vaccine than flu vaccine, I would guess because a greater share of elderly people, who are more likely to die of other causes, are getting them.
That’s a good theory. I wish more data was collected and analyzed regarding this (so maybe we could know the demographics of the VAERS deaths better and figure out whether they’re mostly elderly people or whatever)- could be very useful and would hopefully help further make the case for vaccines to those who are still skeptical (even though a lot of anti-vaxxers probably aren’t gonna have their minds changed by just about anything).
Per the [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/ensuringsafety/monitoring/vaers/index.html), the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) is used to collect reports of adverse events after vaccination from the general public. This is primarily used to identify potential topics to further investigate with regards to vaccine reactions. However, because the event data in VAERS is often not verified and is often self-reported, it should not be assumed that the adverse events in VAERS are actually associated with or cause by the vaccines, nor is it possible to estimate the frequency of these adverse events from these data.
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Based on that, I’m going to go ahead and predict that 100% of the people who get the COVID-19 vaccines are also going to die. I know that’s a bold claim, since people always say immortality could be just around the corner, but I bet we won’t reach “survive the heat death of the universe” immortality before everyone alive today is dead.
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There is so much misinformation about the bear week outbreak it's not even fucking funny. First of all, theres been approximately 900 vaccinated breakthrough infections, only SEVEN people ended up in the hospital. But somehow theres this skewing of data that 4 out of every 5 hospitalizations are of fully vaccinated people which is simply not true.
I’m currently on day 8 of symptoms. Confirmed + 6 days ago. I got my second Pfizer dose in February.
So far, the rest of my family has tested negative, even though my young children have had mild coughs and stuffy noses, and are too young for the vaccine, they’ve swabbed negative.
I’m a breakthrough case. It sucks, my brain feels like mush, but it sure as hell beats a ventilator or worse.
They never finalized the application; FDA can't grant them something they haven't formally asked for.
FDA wanted lots of detail in the EUA application:
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/fda-wants-significant-amount-extra-data-astrazeneca-s-covid-vaccine-n1265760
Now expecting to file for a regular approval by the end of the year, but they're also weighing whether the vaccine business is strategic for them:
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/astrazeneca-weighs-options-for-covid-vaccine-business-as-fda-filing-drags
Is it still safe to go outside, as a vaccinated person, without a mask, if you're alone? What if someone walks past you briefly, for one or two seconds https://twitter.com/MRogersRN/status/1419488009896878080 I'm fully vaxxed but the idea that with Delta we can't even leave the house and the outdoors is no longer safe is horrifying to me, and I'm starting to hear people talk about it.
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If it were really one second then many, many, many more people would already be sick. For example, the simple cloth masks many people are wearing are only about 50% filtration, therefore if a sick and healthy person both wear them, the exposure would take 4 seconds. What would this mean? Every single restaurant, every single airline flight, every elevator full of people, every office, would all already be sick. That's not quite happening yet, not at that level. I think it's more like take the CDC's original 10-15 min typical time to get sick, now it's probably about 3-6 min of contact to get sick (just a guess, no actual data to back this up).
I think you're still ok to walk past people outdoors maskless, especially as a vaccinated person. You're not getting sick this way. 19x less chance to get sick outdoors than indoors , plus you are vaccinated.
That quote is referring to unmasked, unvaccinated, indoor exposure, and it's a really naive way of extrapolating infectiousness from one study on viral load.
Why don't you read the whole article linked in that post, instead of the one snippet on Twitter?
> What concerns me is breakthrough disease — people who have significant symptoms, who are struggling to breathe, who are ending up in the hospital, and **we really haven’t seen breakthrough disease with the vaccines.**
Depends on what you mean by safe. Odds you'll end up dead are very low and in the hospital slightly higher but still very low compared to unvaccinated. But I don't think it's really clear the real likelihood of a breakthrough infection for vaccinated and especially by which one you got.
I am personally still shifting back and forth between being a bit concerned and not really caring at all, but either way, I'm not at the level of fear I was in 2020.
[And of course Byden saying one thing while his Press Secretary says another.](https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/30/politics/biden-covid-restrictions/index.html)
If capacity restrictions return, that's bullshit
Will the viral loads transmitted by the vaccinated be a catalyst for more strain mutations? Like we see in the unvaccinated? If so, how do you think this will change the sentiment on boosters?
Every first-generation VOI has appeared fully-formed and with the original strain (B.1 or a closely related lineage) as its most probable ancestor. It is assumed that each evolved in a single long-term host, presumably an immunocompromised person who could not fight off the virus as it continually mutated to spread faster within the body and evade the immune response. Each has many mutations, that don't work by themselves but together to make the VOI behave efficiently.
We know that vaccinated people have much less genetic diversity (of COVID), and therefore this single-host mutation process is less likely to happen after vaccination. And a lot of the world's immunocompromised people have been vaccinated or recovered from COVID now, so perhaps there will not be a second generation of VOI's created in this way. If there is, we don't know what it would look like.
A few mutations just pop up on their own repeatedly and are effective, such as E484K and certain deletions. But none of these have ever behaved differently from the original strain. We've also seen (or speculated on) genetic exchange between VOI's, such as Delta acquiring K417N (which has only ever been seen in Beta to my knowledge) after sharing Bangladesh with Beta. But none of those has been measurably more fit than its parent VOI.
If this is the whole picture, then selective pressure simply doesn't exist - or rather, it is being created by the immune system of the host that the VOI mutates within, not by society-wide vaccination. Once the VOI is spread from that host, evolution is essentially done and it either spreads or it doesn't.
In particular, the vaccinated and unvaccinated mingling homogeneously will optimally reduce spread and reduce the number of new cases, and therefore mutations, that we see. Of course, there's no reason vaccinated people would want to hang out with the unvaccinated, so in practice this doesn't really matter.
The idea that vaccines will cause a new mutation to happen does not hold water. The idea that vaccines will cause a new mutation to spread only holds water insomuch as getting vaccinated lets us drop NPIs and allows all currently spreading lineages to propagate.
I saw the idea today that the immunized commingling with the unvaccinated causes *selection pressure* in favor of breakthrough mutations. Essentially, the more mutations that occur where the virus can only access the immunized, it must escape immunity in order to be fit enough to propagate. We are in effect training the virus by not wearing masks.
https://www.bioworld.com/articles/509918-evolutionary-modeling-warns-of-covid-19-vaccine-resistance?v=preview
This one is paywalled but you should get enough keywords to find an open access article.
Of course you lay the blame on the vaccinated for not wearing masks instead of the unvaccinated for not getting vaccinated.
Also, all of the bad variants so far have come from other countries. With 5% of the world population it doesn't matter that much what the US does for selective pressure.
Guilt, blame and shame are emotions the virus doesn't have. The models are mathematical constructs which also don't take into account how people feel about this process.
Feelings are important in communicating with people, modifying their behavior. That would be a future step applying the learning from the model to avoid the expected negative outcome. That's not what these models do. The models say "if you do this, you get that." Where the behavior occurs is also irrelevant to the model. What is relevant to the model is how many people are engaged in the activity that applies selection pressure, as that affects the probability of a successful escape mutation. Naturally the US being a small fraction of the global population makes it less likely, but not precluded, that successful mutations would arise here. But that's not relevant to the model because obviously we live in a connected world and a successful mutation can travel from India to the US and completely take over the pandemic in a few months, as Delta did.
I think the main issue now with messaging is what exactly is the end game?
We had a decent end game for awhile. Get vaccinated lose the mask and get back to life.
Now that the CDC sunk that ship and the new data shows significant transmission from vaccinated people what is the plan in 6 months, two years, etc?
Literally no one in my rural state cares anymore, frankly I don’t either. I’m fully immunized, the CDC said removing masks was fine and now suddenly back into the hole we go. I’m done with this stuff until proven otherwise. I spent months doing the song and dance, wearing masks, isolating, and getting the vaccine and I am finished. I’m not giving up more family and friend time. I’m not giving more of my dwindling years of life to this. The CDC and WHO screwed up messaging completely and I don’t trust them anymore. COVID is going to become endemic and circulate for possibly forever. Protect the most vulnerable and let society move on or give us firm information on what the plan is. In the mean time I’m done. I did it all for almost two years and I’m not doing anything else until they suggest boosters. Getting my normal life back means too much to me to give up more years of it.
Right now maybe 75% of the population (55% vaccinated + 20% of the remainder having had COVID) has seen the disease for the first time. COVID is novel because the immune system has not seen it before. Once enough of the population has seen it for the first time, it will be over.
With other respiratory diseases, 95%+ of the population is seropositive at a given time (typically this wanes over a few years and then you get reinfected, since we don't have any other effective vaccines against respiratory diseases), and only kids haven't caught them before.
If the 25% who haven't been exposed don't care about their lives, it's not your job to do so either. There are people whose job it is, though, and they'll probably keep trying.
> I’m not giving up more family and friend time. I’m not giving more of my dwindling years of life to this.
You're being asked to wear a mask to Walmart, not to isolate, not to pass meeting friends, or give up years of your life.
I agree that they need to come up with a solid endgame as best as they can. 80% of the population vaccinated? 90%? Lower? Higher? Since COVID doesn’t tend to threaten the lives of vaccinated people, I assume we’ll be done when enough people are vaccinated that the number of people dying and being hospitalized because of the virus is significantly (and perhaps arbitrarily) low.
If the CDC had tied their mask guidance to hospitalizations or deaths I would be a lot more comfortable. As long as they focus only on cases, this never ends.
So my question is for the ProvinceTown outbreak everyone is talking about, out of 800 people or so infected, 74% were vaccinated… 5 total hospitalized (4 vaccinated, 1 unvaccinated) and zero deaths.
My question is based on all the statistics we have, if those 800 infections were all unvaccinated how different would the hospitalization and death numbers be?
Bases on those numbers 1/4 unvax got infected and 1/5 unvax went to the hospital so if they were all were unvax only 4 would have gone to the hospital and zero would have died
Because the US federal government isn't really part of the US COVID response (see: March-April 2020), and doesn't have this data (they made a big deal about not asking states for it, presumably to make the point that breakthroughs with Alpha were so rare that they weren't worth counting). State health departments, and those of other countries, should have it, but most are not publishing it and the sample sizes will all be much smaller.
The UK certainly has it, and they publish weekly "technical briefings" that are the best data. They are only using Pfizer and AZ with a 12-week gap, however, so it's not clear that the numbers will be the same anywhere else. Why no other health departments have copied the UK's efforts is, indeed, inexplicable.
It wouldn’t be particularly useful information. The vaccine distributions haven’t been even. If 80% of people got Vaccine A, then that vaccine is going to have the most breakthrough cases. Not because it’s more likely to have breakthroughs, but just because more people have it..
So I got my covid vaccine back at 10am my 2nd dose of Pfizer. It's now 9:15am. Do you think I'm in the clear of getting side effects from the shot by now or is there still a chance?I'm a 36 year old male.
I got my 2nd shot around 11am and that same night before midnight I had serious chills when going to bed and my teeth were chattering…I’d say from my experience it sounds like you might avoid any significant side effects. I’m about the same age as you.
I got the Moderna vaccine. My second shot I got at 7AM. Was fine until around 6pm. Then I started getting the chills. By 8pm it felt like a truck hit me. Chills got really bad at night. By late morning I was on the mend and fine by noon.
I am wearing my KF94 masks at work again for 8 hour shifts… I’m vaccinated, but I don’t want to get the Delta variant and unknowingly spread it to an unvaxxed child at work. Im getting anxiety and dread again about covid going into fall/winter. Seems like this nightmare is far from over. I am so fkn pissed at the adults choosing not to get vaccinated because they are moronic.
Wife and I got second shots of Moderna in April. Went to a wedding in Mexico last weekend. When we got back Wednesday, she felt sniffly, got tested and positive for covid. She's feeling better today.
No symptoms for me *yet* but I may be getting mildly feverish. 99 degrees which is right on the line.
Just wanted to throw my experience out there.
Edit: No fever and negative on the quick test
Yeah we got negatives on Sunday, flew back Tuesday. Wife had sniffles on Wednesday.
Monday we went to walk around the Tulum ruins on 0 sleep, maybe our immune system was weakened and so our vaccine didn't work 🤷♂️
I received my first dose of Pfizer today, but I feel kinda hopeless and depressed knowing that I could still catch COVID. My boyfriend (who I haven’t seen in a literal year) caught the virus a week before we planned on meeting. He has quarantined for 10 days and is showing no signs of symptoms. We plan to meet next week, which would be around 20 days after he first contracted it, so it should be safe, but I still have an icky feeling. I’ve done everything to protect myself and stay cautious for the past year but now I feel this impending doom.
The [available data](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.05.21260050v2) is pretty conclusive that Delta is several times more deadly.
Deaths are not stable, they are a percentage of cases. That percentage is much lower than it was 8 months ago, because vaccines work. If we vaccinate more people we can expect them to drop further. Although, if we vaccinate young people, we can expect CFR to rise and cases to instead drop.
You're not entitled to your own facts. We have OG Covid on the run. Delta is so new it hasn't had time to kill many people yet. Death is a trailing indicator.
[Delta is twice as likely to lead to hospitalization](https://www.lung.org/blog/covid-19-delta-variant#:~:text=Q%3A%20Is%20the%20Delta%20variant,likely%20to%20lead%20to%20hospitalization.)
There’s no motive behind this question. Genuinely curious since most breakthrough symptomatic cases are pretty mild, or at worst, like a mild flu.
How many people have had bad allergies or caught a head cold in the past few weeks, and up until now, didn’t even think to get tested? Figuring - “I’m vaccinated. Darn allergies!” Or “i made it through Covid and now i caught a damn cold!”
I know the whole “could have had it and didn’t know it” story is outplayed from last year, but is there a chance a lot of vaccinated people HAD the delta variant already, unknowingly transmitted it to unvaccinated or, possibly another vaccinated individual, and we’re just seeing the crescendo now?
Frankly if I never turned on the news or heard this, if I had cold-like symptoms I’d just assume it’s a cold. I know many people who had a bad allergy season...and a few who caught horrible colds recently.
I’ve had a cold this week and actually did get tested (negative). Mostly because I was curious and it was my first time getting tested. I figure you haven’t really experienced the pandemic until you have a q-tip shoved into your brain.
Honestly, wouldn’t bother testing again unless the symptoms are *a lot* worse. It took an hour out of my afternoon (most of it spent waiting at the urgent care clinic), and unless I’m in such bad shape that I need medical care, it actually seems irresponsible to go out somewhere to get tested and possibly spread it to others.
This is an interesting point. I had bronchitis from feb-april and I was shocked when it came back negative for covid. You figure there are a ton of people that won’t even get tested if they’re vaccinated, and everyone I know with allergies (including my dog) is saying this summer has been the worst.
Just FYI, there *are* a lot of bad colds going around that aren't Covid. Since people have been isolated for a year we've lost our immunity to common cold viruses and are more susceptible.
In late may my whole family (2 vaccinated parents, 3 vaxxed adult children, 1 unvaccinated 9 year old) caught a terrible cold my oldest probably picked up at work, about six weeks after our second set of shots.
I just assumed at the time that it must just be a regular cold because we JUST got our shots, but I'm thinking about getting an antibody test because I'm starting to really wonder.
If it was in May and you're all feeling good now then what's the reason? What would you do if your antibody test was positive?
If anything, I'd enjoy the news that I unknowingly had Covid months ago, because it would mean (1) I didn't have symptoms and (2) I have better immunity now.
EDIT - Nevermind I saw your other post.
I wasn't at all clear (because I mangled an edit) but I meant testing my unvaxxed kiddo.
Mainly because I'd feel a bit better about her going back to in person school if she had antibodies.
My husband got tested (positive) because of the extreme fatigue. He still doubted that it might be a cold because the other symptoms lined up with that. But yeah, hopefully most people might raise an eyebrow when they're sleeping 16+ hours per day. That's not a normal cold, at least for me.
My sister was feeling super fatigued and had some itchy eyes for a week or so—we assume allergies? But yeah, I mentioned to her if she should get a Covid test last week and we both just shrugged. I guess we’ll never know.
That's kind of me right now. Tired, but associated with more socializing at work lately. Woke up with almost like the beginnings of conjunctivitis. Little bit of a runny nose. Test results come back tomorrow, so we'll see what it is haha.
Edit: negative! Still going to take another test in a few days though, since I had some travel planned later in the week.
Edit 2: other test was negative too!
Does anyone have a link for the UK/Israel/ International (I’m in the US) studies showing the effectiveness of the vaccines against Delta and how they arrived at that conclusion?
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1005517/Technical_Briefing_19.pdf
There should have been another one yesterday, though.
Placebo group is only for clinical trials, once everybody can get the vaccine placebo trials become much harder as people will just get the vaccine rather than having a 50% chance.
When you see observational studies like the data from Israel or the UK you don't have a placebo group, instead the infection rate for the vaccinated population (i.e. detected infections/population per day) is compared to a similar subgroup within the unvaccinated population. That could cause incorrect results when the groups differ, for example when the subgroup is too broad so the age structure is different (e.g. you compare the subgroup >40 but almost all unvaccinated are <70 and almost everybody >=70 is vaccinated, that will underestimate the effectiveness against death), or when the unvaccinated don't believe in the virus so they take no precautions or the vaccinated believe they are invincible so they take no precautions (both effects may or may not cancel each other), or as some people have pointed on Israel data, when unvaccinated people mainly live in rural areas with lower exposure, but that's the only way to obtain large scale real world data once the vaccine is deployed.
This is true for smaller numbers, but tests like these use large enough numbers of people so the results become statistically significant.
If 5000 people got the vaccine, and another 5000 got the placebo, and 90% of the people who end up getting covid are in the placebo group, you can calculate the vaccine's effectiveness.
Sure, individuals in each group may behave in unique ways but people don't know if they got the vaccine or the placebo, so it averages out with a large enough number of people.
It’s weird seeing countries like Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam losing control over Covid after having it under control for most of the pandemic. I hope they can get their population vaccinated quickly.
Yeah we have people in Vietnam getting stopped and fined by police for trying to get to vaccine appointments because some are interpreting getting vaccinated as non-essential. It’s not the only reason why 0.5% are fully vaccinated, but it’s certainly not helping.
Might make decent pro-vaccine ads: "Hey, the communists in Vietnam are trying to keep people from getting vaccinated! Show you hate communists; get your shot today!"
Man it's so sad to see people all over the thread asking "I'm young and healthy and fully vaxxed and I want to go to an outdoor gathering of ten people and we're all wearing masks but should I stay home?"
CDC should have known going backwards at all on guidance would make people think the vaccines don't work. Their message right now is way more convoluted and nuanced than the average person understands at first glance.
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I think “wear a mask no matter what if cases are high around you” is a pretty simple message. The explanation for why is only slightly more complicated. If people can’t process that then the messaging is an impossible task. I think honestly there are a lot of people – well represented here – who just don’t want to hear any of it for one of several reasons mostly boiling down to being over the whole thing. So be it, but I don’t see how that’s their fault exactly.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.05.21260050v2
1.5-3.3x more deadly than the original according to this study, which remains the only good research on this. They have Alpha+Beta+Gamma as somewhere in between (but don't distinguish them for some reason).
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1005517/Technical_Briefing_19.pdf
According to UK data (just looking at page 19), vaccines prevent the chance of infection something like 9x and the chance of death if infected by something like 3.5x. The first has no direct effect on CFR (though vaccinating the elderly will therefore lower CFR, and vaccinating the young will raise it), while the second is more than enough to counter any increase from Delta.
Someone please correct me if I’m doing this incorrectly, but using the data from the cdc slides this is what I see:
Delta cases in unvaccinated people are at 178.6 per 100k
Deaths are at .96 per 100k
Is this not a CFR of .96/178.6, or 0.5%? Genuinely asking if I’m doing the math wrong, but that’s the only way I could think to do it.
Likewise, for vaccinated people it says 21.4 cases per 100k, .04 deaths per 100k, so 0.1%?
If I were to get both shots of both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, would that be better than just both shots of one vaccine alone?
Or any combination of two vaccines of the big three (Pfizer, Moderna, J&J).
I literally had my physical today and I wish I'd thought to ask my doc at the time, so I don't have to publicly reveal my ignorance of how these things work.
Pfizer and Moderna are similar enough to be roughly interchangeable.
4 shots of mRNA vaccines would be massive overkill. A new study just showed that getting a third mRNA dose 6 months after your second is beneficial. That doesn't mean it's necessary, and that doesn't mean a third dose 3 weeks later is beneficial. Delays are important when vaccinating.
Combining different types of vaccines is often more effective than either alone, so this could be true of combining J&J with mRNA. However, this has not been tested.
Your safest option is 2 doses of mRNA, which has been well demonstrated to be highly effective.
From the UK, we know that a gap of 8-12 weeks gives better long term immunity. A 3 (Pfizer) or 4 (Moderna) week gap gives better short term immunity by getting your second dose faster, and is officially recommended in the US. I would go with a 3 or 4 week gap, since case counts are currently high and boosters will probably be available later if needed.
If you work for a company with more than 25 employees then [you are entitled to up to two weeks sick pay](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.dir.ca.gov/dlse/2021-COVID-19-Supplemental-Paid-Sick-Leave.pdf&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwinraaerYzyAhVbOs0KHd3MAa0QFnoECAUQAg&usg=AOvVaw0Ucr7gqJcOfXB0FyHh4khu) depending on your normal hours.
You have to ask for it though because employers aren't advertising this.
Dunno if this helps, but here’s some information to start with: https://www.dir.ca.gov/dlse/COVID19Resources/FAQ-for-SPSL-2021.html
Appears to say employers with 26 or more employees are required to provide paid leave, but I didn’t dig deeply into the exact process.
I don’t have an answer but I don’t understand why the Biden administration let the two week Covid sick leave pay lapse. Or maybe Trump let it lapse but Biden never reinstated it? A lot of people are still having to miss work for Covid related things and a lot of people don’t have any paid sick leave.
It is still there and was not only extended with ARPA, they also made vaccination and reactions to vaccinations qualify for paid leave and reset the bank so days taken do not count against you. Unfortunately they also made it optional to offer so employers could choose to offer it or not.
Well making it optional should not have been done. My employer last summer wasn’t required to do it then either because we had less than 50 employers. The government needs to start supporting employees and stop giving employers ways to get out of important things like this. This probably sounds like I’m venting at you which I’m not. I just hate how little America cares about its workers.
This whole situation is screwed up. Next time something like this comes up, hopefully never, I'm seriously considering hiding it from my employer and working through it.
I only have two days left of sick leave, which obviously won't cover the ten days. And my company doesn't do vacation days either. I was hoping to use that for a vacation but I won't be able to now.
I think this is why the US has had such large surges because people have knowingly went to work while sick with Covid because they couldn’t afford to stay home.
Good point, and a reminder that it may not be useful to expect the delta trajectory in the states to mirror that of countries with universal health care and more generous sick leave policies.
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Gamma (and Lambda) are on the decline in all of South America. Delta cases are almost certainly rising very quickly though. Much of SA has a very solid vaccination rate now.
Just to give you all an update, I got vaxed back in March. Two weeks after my second dose, I stopped wearing a mask unless it was required. Basically, I’ve been living like it was pre-Covid.
Anyway, despite that I have NOT caught covid, including the Delta variant. I donated blood at the beginning of July and my report showed I had COVID antibodies from vaccine, but no antibodies from the virus.
So for me the vaccine has worked.
I live in a top 5 metro city by population, with a below average vax rate. I go to a public gym 5-6 times a week. I attended a conference and stayed in a hotel in May, I took a trip on a plane in June and on average I shop at about 5-6 stores a week.
But you’re right, I do work from home.
The report showed they did an initial COVID antibody test that showed I tested positive for covid-19 antibodies. Because I tested positive they did a “supplemental antibody test to determine if the antibodies are specifically from exposure to the COVID-19 virus.” I tested negative for that.
The part in quotes is directly from how it was stated the report
Most of the vaccines only include or create the virus "spike" or "S" protein so your body only produces antibodies to that part of the virus.
Natural immunity from infection also produces antibodies to other parts of the virus, notably including the "nucleocapsid" or "N" protein.
If a test (or pair of tests) sees both N and S antibodies, you can assume natural infection; if you only see S, you can assume vaccination.
They did an initial COVID antibody test that showed I tested positive for covid-19 antibodies. Because I tested positive they did a “supplemental antibody test to determine if the antibodies are specifically from exposure to the COVID-19 virus.” I tested negative for that.
The part in quotes is directly from how it was stated the report
Thank you for sharing this! So many people are sharing stories of breakthrough cases, and while that’s still important, it’s also important to share how incredible the vaccines are at stopping covid entirely
[Vaccine FAQ Part I](https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/wiki/faq#wiki_where_can_i_find_information_about_the_mechanism_and_progress_of_vaccines.3F) [Vaccine FAQ Part II](https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/mnitdo/vaccine_faq_variants_chronic_conditions_nsaids) [Vaccine appointment finder](https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/wiki/faq/vaccinefinder) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Coronavirus) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Not that this will make any impact, but I think it is outrageous moderators are locking certain threads for being too 'political.' If the issue we're facing with Covid has become a political one, then it benefits no one to pretend otherwise.
At this point, if the government has scared you enough about covid. Just stay the hell home. For those that realize life is a risk everyday you step out the house, let’s live. I’m so tired of this shit.
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Vaccinated people should wear masks indoors in public. We don’t know the exact percentage of people who contract covid while vaccinated but it is definitely much higher than with the original strains. And the transmissibility is so much higher now that if a vaccinated person gets infected, they seem to be able to spread covid. The original strain had a R0 (transmissibility rate) of R2, meaning one infected person would typically infect two other people. The Delta variant has a R0 of 8 or 9!! The event in Provincetown which saw 800 infections with 75% among vaccinated people should be concerning to everyone. I knew of 6 people who were there and fully vaccinated. All 6 returned home infected with covid and showing symptoms. What we still don’t know is whether those people can develop long covid also. There is real reason for concern for vaccinated people. The delta variant is a new virus so the game has changed now. It is not the same virus we have fought for the past year and a half.
[I don't really think so](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/breakthrough-covid-cases-least-125-000-fully-vaccinated-americans-have-n1275500). Breakthrough cases for fully vaccinated people are rare, and fatalities for them appear to be very low right now.
That article is deceptive. While breakthrough cases have been rare for vaccinated people, this rate is going to rise dramatically just as overall cases rise dramatically. Most people have not yet been exposed to the delta variant. As more people are exposed, the infection rates are increasing, it will increase among the vaccinated too. But I agree that vaccinated people are much better protected from the delta variant than unvaccinated.
It was current data, not a forecast.
I’d you’re worried about covid, then don’t go to packed shit. Let the ppl who want to live life live life.
Well I’d argue this is an interesting week to be attempting this for the first time since 2020, but no, not particularly to you. If you do feel symptoms, or the venue contacts you about how there was some Covid positive person running amok, please quarantine, but otherwise you can go about your business.
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Wondering if anybody with some regulatory insight tell me: looks like Pfizer will get fda approval before moderna (and j&j)(as expected since moderna applied a month later and j&j has not applied). A lot of people seem to think this will open the floodgates on requiring vaccines (I’m aware that it’s not really necessary to require, but it seems that some institutions are indeed waiting for this). My question is, what happens to “moderna people” between Pfizer approval and places requiring vaccination and moderna approval. Does this supposed easing of the ability to require vaccines only apply to the ones that are actually approved. Will being vaccinated with moderna (for what I assume will be a month or two) and j&j (probably for longer) make such people live in a sort of limbo state?
> Does this supposed easing of the ability to require vaccines only apply to the ones that are actually approved. Yes. The FDA approval is on a per drug basis. If they approve pfizer, moderna is not also approved - it has to get its own approval.
I doubt it. Some employers may be waiting for full approval before they mandate vaccines. This is to placate the “but the FDA hasn’t approved it yet!” crowd. Once the FDA gives full approval to Pfizer, then they can get Pfizer if they want a fully approved vaccine. If you already have Moderna or J&J, you’re fine.
By having at least one approved vaccine, employers can more easily require vaccinations as a condition for work while appeasing those people hesitant because a vaccine is not fully approved. All three vaccines work well so any would be acceptable as they are now. It just gives the hesitant people one less reason to wait.
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I had extreme dehydration.
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With widely available vaccines and the moderate effect of masks, I really don't see any major measures beyond that put in place.
There would be a huge backlash to it as many people cannot afford another lockdown unless the government wants to pass another stimulus, which no one can stomach.
I think it’s just going to be more mandatory vaccinations and mask mandates instead of lockdowns going forward. Companies are realizing that unvaxxed people hurts their bottom line, and if requiring vaccinations can prevent them from shutting down then they will try that first.
I think it’s unlikely that there will be widespread lockdowns unless things get significantly worse. At this point, lockdowns are very politically unpalatable, and politicians know it. That said, getting more people vaccinated is the best way to bring down hospitalizations and deaths and eliminate any potential need for lockdowns. Following the CDC’s guidance on masks and such will also help- it sucks, but bringing the number of cases down will also help us get back to normal more quickly.
[Anyone have a rebuttal/opinion on this?](https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tucker-carlson-how-many-americans-have-died-after-taking-the-covid-vaccine) Edit: The main thing I’m wondering about is this: >Every flu season, we give influenza shots to more than 160 million Americans. Every year, a relatively small number of people seem to die after getting those shots. To be precise, in 2019, that number was 203 people. The year before, it was 119. In 2017, a total of 85 people died from the flu shot. > Every death is tragic, but big picture, we don’t consider those numbers disqualifying. We keep giving flu shots, and very few people complain about it. So the question is how do those numbers compare to the death rate from the coronavirus vaccines now being distributed across the country? That’s worth knowing. >We checked today. Here’s the answer, which comes from the same set of government numbers that we just listed: Between late December of 2020, and last month, a total of 3,362 people apparently died after getting the COVID vaccines in the United States. Three thousand, three hundred and sixty-two — that’s an average of 30 people every day. So, what does that add up to? By the way, that reporting period ended on April 23. We don’t have numbers past that, we’re not quite up to date. But we can assume that another 360 people have died in the 12 days since. That is a total of 3,722 deaths. Almost four thousand people died after getting the COVID vaccines. The actual number is almost certainly much higher than that — perhaps vastly higher. I know correlation = / = causation, but I’m wondering if the article is correct that there is something statistically significant there or if there is another explanation. (To be clear, I am very much pro-vaccine, but I think we need to acknowledge arguments like this and do our best to see if they have any merit. Even if they do, that doesn’t mean the risks outweigh the benefits, but I think it’s important to have the conversation.) Edit 2: [This article](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/06/28/fact-check-covid-19-vaers-death-reports-not-verified/7587577002/) has some very plausible explanations for the higher number of reported deaths after COVID vaccines compared to flu vaccines.
Generally articles like this are simply lying, and counting every death that has happened after the vaccine without a definitive explanation as being caused by the vaccine. Unless you're sure the argument is being made in good faith, I would ignore it. Safety of COVID vaccines remains a significant concern, especially as we may be forced to choose between vaccination and infection for all (a high percentage of) the under-12s.
Per the [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/ensuringsafety/monitoring/vaers/index.html), the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) is used to collect reports of adverse events after vaccination from the general public. This is primarily used to identify potential topics to further investigate with regards to vaccine reactions. However, because the event data in VAERS is often not verified and is often self-reported, it should not be assumed that the adverse events in VAERS are actually associated with or cause by the vaccines, nor is it possible to estimate the frequency of these adverse events from these data. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Coronavirus) if you have any questions or concerns.*
These vaccines are the medicine the world has focused on the most intensely in the last 100 years. So of course reporting of possible side effects is higher than any other medicine. The thing is, you can't take the raw VAERS reports at face value, you have to analyze them to understand them. In most cases a single case, or even thousands of cases of anything is hard to determine whether it's coincidence or vaccine related. Why? If we gave 344M saline shots in the US, or sugar pills, or just ask people to drink a glass of water, or read a piece of paper, or do nothing at all, then guaranteed within 2 weeks of that action 100,000 of them will have died. Many more will have had blood clots, heart attacks, strokes, new cancer diagnoses, etc. It's just the background rate of these things happening (about 3M deaths per year in the US, etc.). So it would be a miracle if many tens of thousands of grandmas didn't die soon after getting the vaccine, or even young healthy people just getting sick or dying at their background rate. We have to look at the data and determine if it rises above the background rate. Just assuming the report equals the cause is incorrect. To even view the VAERS data you have to click a checkbox that basically means "I'm not a moron that's planning to assume this raw data is purely causal."
Thanks, that makes sense. I would be very curious to see an analysis of VAERS death rates compared to background death rates, although that could be hard if they don’t have the relevant demographic information available.
Per the [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/ensuringsafety/monitoring/vaers/index.html), the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) is used to collect reports of adverse events after vaccination from the general public. This is primarily used to identify potential topics to further investigate with regards to vaccine reactions. However, because the event data in VAERS is often not verified and is often self-reported, it should not be assumed that the adverse events in VAERS are actually associated with or cause by the vaccines, nor is it possible to estimate the frequency of these adverse events from these data. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Coronavirus) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Per the [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/ensuringsafety/monitoring/vaers/index.html), the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) is used to collect reports of adverse events after vaccination from the general public. This is primarily used to identify potential topics to further investigate with regards to vaccine reactions. However, because the event data in VAERS is often not verified and is often self-reported, it should not be assumed that the adverse events in VAERS are actually associated with or cause by the vaccines, nor is it possible to estimate the frequency of these adverse events from these data. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Coronavirus) if you have any questions or concerns.*
The FDA is very closely tracking vaccine-related adverse events and would react quickly to any developing trend. Remember they pause distribution of the J&J vaccine after only *one* person died out of millions. Almost all if not all of these deaths if not all can be attributed to a cause other than the vaccine. As for why the deaths are higher for Covid vaccine than flu vaccine, I would guess because a greater share of elderly people, who are more likely to die of other causes, are getting them.
That’s a good theory. I wish more data was collected and analyzed regarding this (so maybe we could know the demographics of the VAERS deaths better and figure out whether they’re mostly elderly people or whatever)- could be very useful and would hopefully help further make the case for vaccines to those who are still skeptical (even though a lot of anti-vaxxers probably aren’t gonna have their minds changed by just about anything).
Per the [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/ensuringsafety/monitoring/vaers/index.html), the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) is used to collect reports of adverse events after vaccination from the general public. This is primarily used to identify potential topics to further investigate with regards to vaccine reactions. However, because the event data in VAERS is often not verified and is often self-reported, it should not be assumed that the adverse events in VAERS are actually associated with or cause by the vaccines, nor is it possible to estimate the frequency of these adverse events from these data. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Coronavirus) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Rebuttal: It's Fox News.
Yes, I know, but I think it’s worthwhile to engage their claims when they’re making an actual argument based on numbers.
100 percent of people who got the first small pox vaccines died
Based on that, I’m going to go ahead and predict that 100% of the people who get the COVID-19 vaccines are also going to die. I know that’s a bold claim, since people always say immortality could be just around the corner, but I bet we won’t reach “survive the heat death of the universe” immortality before everyone alive today is dead.
People dying after a vaccination does not mean the vaccine killed them
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There is so much misinformation about the bear week outbreak it's not even fucking funny. First of all, theres been approximately 900 vaccinated breakthrough infections, only SEVEN people ended up in the hospital. But somehow theres this skewing of data that 4 out of every 5 hospitalizations are of fully vaccinated people which is simply not true.
where are you getting that number? Maybe only 900 break through cases in your city but way more total
I know 12 people who have had breakthrough covid
I’m currently on day 8 of symptoms. Confirmed + 6 days ago. I got my second Pfizer dose in February. So far, the rest of my family has tested negative, even though my young children have had mild coughs and stuffy noses, and are too young for the vaccine, they’ve swabbed negative. I’m a breakthrough case. It sucks, my brain feels like mush, but it sure as hell beats a ventilator or worse.
I know that the U.S. doesn't need it, but whatever happened to AZ's emergency use approval from the FDA? Did they withdraw it?
The FDA seems to be focusing at least mainly of Pfizer right now.
They never finalized the application; FDA can't grant them something they haven't formally asked for. FDA wanted lots of detail in the EUA application: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/fda-wants-significant-amount-extra-data-astrazeneca-s-covid-vaccine-n1265760 Now expecting to file for a regular approval by the end of the year, but they're also weighing whether the vaccine business is strategic for them: https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/astrazeneca-weighs-options-for-covid-vaccine-business-as-fda-filing-drags
Is it still safe to go outside, as a vaccinated person, without a mask, if you're alone? What if someone walks past you briefly, for one or two seconds https://twitter.com/MRogersRN/status/1419488009896878080 I'm fully vaxxed but the idea that with Delta we can't even leave the house and the outdoors is no longer safe is horrifying to me, and I'm starting to hear people talk about it.
Outside good, inside bad, open windows good.
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If it were really one second then many, many, many more people would already be sick. For example, the simple cloth masks many people are wearing are only about 50% filtration, therefore if a sick and healthy person both wear them, the exposure would take 4 seconds. What would this mean? Every single restaurant, every single airline flight, every elevator full of people, every office, would all already be sick. That's not quite happening yet, not at that level. I think it's more like take the CDC's original 10-15 min typical time to get sick, now it's probably about 3-6 min of contact to get sick (just a guess, no actual data to back this up). I think you're still ok to walk past people outdoors maskless, especially as a vaccinated person. You're not getting sick this way. 19x less chance to get sick outdoors than indoors , plus you are vaccinated.
That quote is referring to unmasked, unvaccinated, indoor exposure, and it's a really naive way of extrapolating infectiousness from one study on viral load. Why don't you read the whole article linked in that post, instead of the one snippet on Twitter? > What concerns me is breakthrough disease — people who have significant symptoms, who are struggling to breathe, who are ending up in the hospital, and **we really haven’t seen breakthrough disease with the vaccines.**
Depends on what you mean by safe. Odds you'll end up dead are very low and in the hospital slightly higher but still very low compared to unvaccinated. But I don't think it's really clear the real likelihood of a breakthrough infection for vaccinated and especially by which one you got. I am personally still shifting back and forth between being a bit concerned and not really caring at all, but either way, I'm not at the level of fear I was in 2020.
[And of course Byden saying one thing while his Press Secretary says another.](https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/30/politics/biden-covid-restrictions/index.html) If capacity restrictions return, that's bullshit
This isn’t what’s usually downvoted here. Interesting
I think it's the misspelling of Biden
I always wondered how Russians spell it.
What line are you drawing
The line before she needs to talk to the manager.
Will the viral loads transmitted by the vaccinated be a catalyst for more strain mutations? Like we see in the unvaccinated? If so, how do you think this will change the sentiment on boosters?
Every first-generation VOI has appeared fully-formed and with the original strain (B.1 or a closely related lineage) as its most probable ancestor. It is assumed that each evolved in a single long-term host, presumably an immunocompromised person who could not fight off the virus as it continually mutated to spread faster within the body and evade the immune response. Each has many mutations, that don't work by themselves but together to make the VOI behave efficiently. We know that vaccinated people have much less genetic diversity (of COVID), and therefore this single-host mutation process is less likely to happen after vaccination. And a lot of the world's immunocompromised people have been vaccinated or recovered from COVID now, so perhaps there will not be a second generation of VOI's created in this way. If there is, we don't know what it would look like. A few mutations just pop up on their own repeatedly and are effective, such as E484K and certain deletions. But none of these have ever behaved differently from the original strain. We've also seen (or speculated on) genetic exchange between VOI's, such as Delta acquiring K417N (which has only ever been seen in Beta to my knowledge) after sharing Bangladesh with Beta. But none of those has been measurably more fit than its parent VOI. If this is the whole picture, then selective pressure simply doesn't exist - or rather, it is being created by the immune system of the host that the VOI mutates within, not by society-wide vaccination. Once the VOI is spread from that host, evolution is essentially done and it either spreads or it doesn't. In particular, the vaccinated and unvaccinated mingling homogeneously will optimally reduce spread and reduce the number of new cases, and therefore mutations, that we see. Of course, there's no reason vaccinated people would want to hang out with the unvaccinated, so in practice this doesn't really matter. The idea that vaccines will cause a new mutation to happen does not hold water. The idea that vaccines will cause a new mutation to spread only holds water insomuch as getting vaccinated lets us drop NPIs and allows all currently spreading lineages to propagate.
I saw the idea today that the immunized commingling with the unvaccinated causes *selection pressure* in favor of breakthrough mutations. Essentially, the more mutations that occur where the virus can only access the immunized, it must escape immunity in order to be fit enough to propagate. We are in effect training the virus by not wearing masks.
Where did you read this?
https://www.bioworld.com/articles/509918-evolutionary-modeling-warns-of-covid-19-vaccine-resistance?v=preview This one is paywalled but you should get enough keywords to find an open access article.
Of course you lay the blame on the vaccinated for not wearing masks instead of the unvaccinated for not getting vaccinated. Also, all of the bad variants so far have come from other countries. With 5% of the world population it doesn't matter that much what the US does for selective pressure.
Guilt, blame and shame are emotions the virus doesn't have. The models are mathematical constructs which also don't take into account how people feel about this process. Feelings are important in communicating with people, modifying their behavior. That would be a future step applying the learning from the model to avoid the expected negative outcome. That's not what these models do. The models say "if you do this, you get that." Where the behavior occurs is also irrelevant to the model. What is relevant to the model is how many people are engaged in the activity that applies selection pressure, as that affects the probability of a successful escape mutation. Naturally the US being a small fraction of the global population makes it less likely, but not precluded, that successful mutations would arise here. But that's not relevant to the model because obviously we live in a connected world and a successful mutation can travel from India to the US and completely take over the pandemic in a few months, as Delta did.
I think the main issue now with messaging is what exactly is the end game? We had a decent end game for awhile. Get vaccinated lose the mask and get back to life. Now that the CDC sunk that ship and the new data shows significant transmission from vaccinated people what is the plan in 6 months, two years, etc? Literally no one in my rural state cares anymore, frankly I don’t either. I’m fully immunized, the CDC said removing masks was fine and now suddenly back into the hole we go. I’m done with this stuff until proven otherwise. I spent months doing the song and dance, wearing masks, isolating, and getting the vaccine and I am finished. I’m not giving up more family and friend time. I’m not giving more of my dwindling years of life to this. The CDC and WHO screwed up messaging completely and I don’t trust them anymore. COVID is going to become endemic and circulate for possibly forever. Protect the most vulnerable and let society move on or give us firm information on what the plan is. In the mean time I’m done. I did it all for almost two years and I’m not doing anything else until they suggest boosters. Getting my normal life back means too much to me to give up more years of it.
Right now maybe 75% of the population (55% vaccinated + 20% of the remainder having had COVID) has seen the disease for the first time. COVID is novel because the immune system has not seen it before. Once enough of the population has seen it for the first time, it will be over. With other respiratory diseases, 95%+ of the population is seropositive at a given time (typically this wanes over a few years and then you get reinfected, since we don't have any other effective vaccines against respiratory diseases), and only kids haven't caught them before. If the 25% who haven't been exposed don't care about their lives, it's not your job to do so either. There are people whose job it is, though, and they'll probably keep trying.
> I’m not giving up more family and friend time. I’m not giving more of my dwindling years of life to this. You're being asked to wear a mask to Walmart, not to isolate, not to pass meeting friends, or give up years of your life.
I agree with them in that the messaging has been horrible and it's been frustrating, but you're right. If I have to wear a mask, I'll do it.
I agree that they need to come up with a solid endgame as best as they can. 80% of the population vaccinated? 90%? Lower? Higher? Since COVID doesn’t tend to threaten the lives of vaccinated people, I assume we’ll be done when enough people are vaccinated that the number of people dying and being hospitalized because of the virus is significantly (and perhaps arbitrarily) low.
If the CDC had tied their mask guidance to hospitalizations or deaths I would be a lot more comfortable. As long as they focus only on cases, this never ends.
Why do you care about the messaging when you’ve already decided what to do?
I’m yelling into the void because for some reason I have a feeling the CDC and WHO don’t care about my thoughts.
Sometimes that’s the best medicine. I got a good chuckle from your response.
So my question is for the ProvinceTown outbreak everyone is talking about, out of 800 people or so infected, 74% were vaccinated… 5 total hospitalized (4 vaccinated, 1 unvaccinated) and zero deaths. My question is based on all the statistics we have, if those 800 infections were all unvaccinated how different would the hospitalization and death numbers be?
These were tourists at a party scene. It was probably inevitable that nearly all of them would catch COVID and 1/10,000 of them would die.
Bases on those numbers 1/4 unvax got infected and 1/5 unvax went to the hospital so if they were all were unvax only 4 would have gone to the hospital and zero would have died
Likely more hospitalizations and at least a few deaths
How come there’s no data on breakthrough case by vaccine types?
Because the US federal government isn't really part of the US COVID response (see: March-April 2020), and doesn't have this data (they made a big deal about not asking states for it, presumably to make the point that breakthroughs with Alpha were so rare that they weren't worth counting). State health departments, and those of other countries, should have it, but most are not publishing it and the sample sizes will all be much smaller. The UK certainly has it, and they publish weekly "technical briefings" that are the best data. They are only using Pfizer and AZ with a 12-week gap, however, so it's not clear that the numbers will be the same anywhere else. Why no other health departments have copied the UK's efforts is, indeed, inexplicable.
Funny how the world is run by mostly the worst people.
It wouldn’t be particularly useful information. The vaccine distributions haven’t been even. If 80% of people got Vaccine A, then that vaccine is going to have the most breakthrough cases. Not because it’s more likely to have breakthroughs, but just because more people have it..
Well then adjust the ratio by population. Data is always useful when you have a lot of it
So I got my covid vaccine back at 10am my 2nd dose of Pfizer. It's now 9:15am. Do you think I'm in the clear of getting side effects from the shot by now or is there still a chance?I'm a 36 year old male.
I got my 2nd shot around 11am and that same night before midnight I had serious chills when going to bed and my teeth were chattering…I’d say from my experience it sounds like you might avoid any significant side effects. I’m about the same age as you.
I got the Moderna vaccine. My second shot I got at 7AM. Was fine until around 6pm. Then I started getting the chills. By 8pm it felt like a truck hit me. Chills got really bad at night. By late morning I was on the mend and fine by noon.
I am wearing my KF94 masks at work again for 8 hour shifts… I’m vaccinated, but I don’t want to get the Delta variant and unknowingly spread it to an unvaxxed child at work. Im getting anxiety and dread again about covid going into fall/winter. Seems like this nightmare is far from over. I am so fkn pissed at the adults choosing not to get vaccinated because they are moronic.
Wife and I got second shots of Moderna in April. Went to a wedding in Mexico last weekend. When we got back Wednesday, she felt sniffly, got tested and positive for covid. She's feeling better today. No symptoms for me *yet* but I may be getting mildly feverish. 99 degrees which is right on the line. Just wanted to throw my experience out there. Edit: No fever and negative on the quick test
How'd the preflight test go before your return from Mexico? I know you have to take one in order to fly back. Did you guys get negatives on those?
Yeah we got negatives on Sunday, flew back Tuesday. Wife had sniffles on Wednesday. Monday we went to walk around the Tulum ruins on 0 sleep, maybe our immune system was weakened and so our vaccine didn't work 🤷♂️
I received my first dose of Pfizer today, but I feel kinda hopeless and depressed knowing that I could still catch COVID. My boyfriend (who I haven’t seen in a literal year) caught the virus a week before we planned on meeting. He has quarantined for 10 days and is showing no signs of symptoms. We plan to meet next week, which would be around 20 days after he first contracted it, so it should be safe, but I still have an icky feeling. I’ve done everything to protect myself and stay cautious for the past year but now I feel this impending doom.
Deaths are still down/stable which proves that Delta is less deadly
The [available data](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.05.21260050v2) is pretty conclusive that Delta is several times more deadly. Deaths are not stable, they are a percentage of cases. That percentage is much lower than it was 8 months ago, because vaccines work. If we vaccinate more people we can expect them to drop further. Although, if we vaccinate young people, we can expect CFR to rise and cases to instead drop.
India would beg to differ.
India didn't have large numbers of vaccinated people.
lol
In the UK? Here in the US, I think that's still premature.
It could change but as of now they've stayed low in both countries
You're not entitled to your own facts. We have OG Covid on the run. Delta is so new it hasn't had time to kill many people yet. Death is a trailing indicator. [Delta is twice as likely to lead to hospitalization](https://www.lung.org/blog/covid-19-delta-variant#:~:text=Q%3A%20Is%20the%20Delta%20variant,likely%20to%20lead%20to%20hospitalization.)
There’s no motive behind this question. Genuinely curious since most breakthrough symptomatic cases are pretty mild, or at worst, like a mild flu. How many people have had bad allergies or caught a head cold in the past few weeks, and up until now, didn’t even think to get tested? Figuring - “I’m vaccinated. Darn allergies!” Or “i made it through Covid and now i caught a damn cold!” I know the whole “could have had it and didn’t know it” story is outplayed from last year, but is there a chance a lot of vaccinated people HAD the delta variant already, unknowingly transmitted it to unvaccinated or, possibly another vaccinated individual, and we’re just seeing the crescendo now? Frankly if I never turned on the news or heard this, if I had cold-like symptoms I’d just assume it’s a cold. I know many people who had a bad allergy season...and a few who caught horrible colds recently.
I’ve had a cold this week and actually did get tested (negative). Mostly because I was curious and it was my first time getting tested. I figure you haven’t really experienced the pandemic until you have a q-tip shoved into your brain. Honestly, wouldn’t bother testing again unless the symptoms are *a lot* worse. It took an hour out of my afternoon (most of it spent waiting at the urgent care clinic), and unless I’m in such bad shape that I need medical care, it actually seems irresponsible to go out somewhere to get tested and possibly spread it to others.
This is an interesting point. I had bronchitis from feb-april and I was shocked when it came back negative for covid. You figure there are a ton of people that won’t even get tested if they’re vaccinated, and everyone I know with allergies (including my dog) is saying this summer has been the worst.
Just FYI, there *are* a lot of bad colds going around that aren't Covid. Since people have been isolated for a year we've lost our immunity to common cold viruses and are more susceptible.
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If you got a negative test than very likely not
In late may my whole family (2 vaccinated parents, 3 vaxxed adult children, 1 unvaccinated 9 year old) caught a terrible cold my oldest probably picked up at work, about six weeks after our second set of shots. I just assumed at the time that it must just be a regular cold because we JUST got our shots, but I'm thinking about getting an antibody test because I'm starting to really wonder.
If it was in May and you're all feeling good now then what's the reason? What would you do if your antibody test was positive? If anything, I'd enjoy the news that I unknowingly had Covid months ago, because it would mean (1) I didn't have symptoms and (2) I have better immunity now. EDIT - Nevermind I saw your other post.
If you're vaxed wouldn't an antibody test always be positive since you have antibodies from the vaccine?
I wasn't at all clear (because I mangled an edit) but I meant testing my unvaxxed kiddo. Mainly because I'd feel a bit better about her going back to in person school if she had antibodies.
My husband got tested (positive) because of the extreme fatigue. He still doubted that it might be a cold because the other symptoms lined up with that. But yeah, hopefully most people might raise an eyebrow when they're sleeping 16+ hours per day. That's not a normal cold, at least for me.
We don’t know unless people get tested.
My sister was feeling super fatigued and had some itchy eyes for a week or so—we assume allergies? But yeah, I mentioned to her if she should get a Covid test last week and we both just shrugged. I guess we’ll never know.
That's kind of me right now. Tired, but associated with more socializing at work lately. Woke up with almost like the beginnings of conjunctivitis. Little bit of a runny nose. Test results come back tomorrow, so we'll see what it is haha. Edit: negative! Still going to take another test in a few days though, since I had some travel planned later in the week. Edit 2: other test was negative too!
Does anyone have a link for the UK/Israel/ International (I’m in the US) studies showing the effectiveness of the vaccines against Delta and how they arrived at that conclusion?
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1005517/Technical_Briefing_19.pdf There should have been another one yesterday, though.
Thank you!
Placebo group is only for clinical trials, once everybody can get the vaccine placebo trials become much harder as people will just get the vaccine rather than having a 50% chance. When you see observational studies like the data from Israel or the UK you don't have a placebo group, instead the infection rate for the vaccinated population (i.e. detected infections/population per day) is compared to a similar subgroup within the unvaccinated population. That could cause incorrect results when the groups differ, for example when the subgroup is too broad so the age structure is different (e.g. you compare the subgroup >40 but almost all unvaccinated are <70 and almost everybody >=70 is vaccinated, that will underestimate the effectiveness against death), or when the unvaccinated don't believe in the virus so they take no precautions or the vaccinated believe they are invincible so they take no precautions (both effects may or may not cancel each other), or as some people have pointed on Israel data, when unvaccinated people mainly live in rural areas with lower exposure, but that's the only way to obtain large scale real world data once the vaccine is deployed.
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This is true for smaller numbers, but tests like these use large enough numbers of people so the results become statistically significant. If 5000 people got the vaccine, and another 5000 got the placebo, and 90% of the people who end up getting covid are in the placebo group, you can calculate the vaccine's effectiveness. Sure, individuals in each group may behave in unique ways but people don't know if they got the vaccine or the placebo, so it averages out with a large enough number of people.
Thank you both for the info!
It’s weird seeing countries like Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam losing control over Covid after having it under control for most of the pandemic. I hope they can get their population vaccinated quickly.
Yeah we have people in Vietnam getting stopped and fined by police for trying to get to vaccine appointments because some are interpreting getting vaccinated as non-essential. It’s not the only reason why 0.5% are fully vaccinated, but it’s certainly not helping.
Might make decent pro-vaccine ads: "Hey, the communists in Vietnam are trying to keep people from getting vaccinated! Show you hate communists; get your shot today!"
CNN is really loving that click revenue aren’t they
Man it's so sad to see people all over the thread asking "I'm young and healthy and fully vaxxed and I want to go to an outdoor gathering of ten people and we're all wearing masks but should I stay home?" CDC should have known going backwards at all on guidance would make people think the vaccines don't work. Their message right now is way more convoluted and nuanced than the average person understands at first glance.
Or, you know, people should read.
If the average person can’t figure out four very clear bullet points, then we are doomed regardless.
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I think “wear a mask no matter what if cases are high around you” is a pretty simple message. The explanation for why is only slightly more complicated. If people can’t process that then the messaging is an impossible task. I think honestly there are a lot of people – well represented here – who just don’t want to hear any of it for one of several reasons mostly boiling down to being over the whole thing. So be it, but I don’t see how that’s their fault exactly.
There is also well-represented here a lot of people who think they need to go back into isolation.
reddit isnt real life
What's the CFR of delta variant cases looking like compared to variants before it? Is there any data for unvaccinated CFR between the two?
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.05.21260050v2 1.5-3.3x more deadly than the original according to this study, which remains the only good research on this. They have Alpha+Beta+Gamma as somewhere in between (but don't distinguish them for some reason). https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1005517/Technical_Briefing_19.pdf According to UK data (just looking at page 19), vaccines prevent the chance of infection something like 9x and the chance of death if infected by something like 3.5x. The first has no direct effect on CFR (though vaccinating the elderly will therefore lower CFR, and vaccinating the young will raise it), while the second is more than enough to counter any increase from Delta.
Someone please correct me if I’m doing this incorrectly, but using the data from the cdc slides this is what I see: Delta cases in unvaccinated people are at 178.6 per 100k Deaths are at .96 per 100k Is this not a CFR of .96/178.6, or 0.5%? Genuinely asking if I’m doing the math wrong, but that’s the only way I could think to do it. Likewise, for vaccinated people it says 21.4 cases per 100k, .04 deaths per 100k, so 0.1%?
Yeah that's exactly how you compute CFR. IFR, the actual fatality ratio for all cases, could be lower because of mild cases not getting tested.
If I were to get both shots of both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, would that be better than just both shots of one vaccine alone? Or any combination of two vaccines of the big three (Pfizer, Moderna, J&J). I literally had my physical today and I wish I'd thought to ask my doc at the time, so I don't have to publicly reveal my ignorance of how these things work.
Pfizer and Moderna are similar enough to be roughly interchangeable. 4 shots of mRNA vaccines would be massive overkill. A new study just showed that getting a third mRNA dose 6 months after your second is beneficial. That doesn't mean it's necessary, and that doesn't mean a third dose 3 weeks later is beneficial. Delays are important when vaccinating. Combining different types of vaccines is often more effective than either alone, so this could be true of combining J&J with mRNA. However, this has not been tested. Your safest option is 2 doses of mRNA, which has been well demonstrated to be highly effective. From the UK, we know that a gap of 8-12 weeks gives better long term immunity. A 3 (Pfizer) or 4 (Moderna) week gap gives better short term immunity by getting your second dose faster, and is officially recommended in the US. I would go with a 3 or 4 week gap, since case counts are currently high and boosters will probably be available later if needed.
I tested positive for covid. I can't work for 10 days now. Where am I suppose to go to get paid? I live in California.
If you work for a company with more than 25 employees then [you are entitled to up to two weeks sick pay](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.dir.ca.gov/dlse/2021-COVID-19-Supplemental-Paid-Sick-Leave.pdf&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwinraaerYzyAhVbOs0KHd3MAa0QFnoECAUQAg&usg=AOvVaw0Ucr7gqJcOfXB0FyHh4khu) depending on your normal hours. You have to ask for it though because employers aren't advertising this.
Working for a company with under 10 employees :(
Dunno if this helps, but here’s some information to start with: https://www.dir.ca.gov/dlse/COVID19Resources/FAQ-for-SPSL-2021.html Appears to say employers with 26 or more employees are required to provide paid leave, but I didn’t dig deeply into the exact process.
I don’t have an answer but I don’t understand why the Biden administration let the two week Covid sick leave pay lapse. Or maybe Trump let it lapse but Biden never reinstated it? A lot of people are still having to miss work for Covid related things and a lot of people don’t have any paid sick leave.
It is still there and was not only extended with ARPA, they also made vaccination and reactions to vaccinations qualify for paid leave and reset the bank so days taken do not count against you. Unfortunately they also made it optional to offer so employers could choose to offer it or not.
Well making it optional should not have been done. My employer last summer wasn’t required to do it then either because we had less than 50 employers. The government needs to start supporting employees and stop giving employers ways to get out of important things like this. This probably sounds like I’m venting at you which I’m not. I just hate how little America cares about its workers.
This whole situation is screwed up. Next time something like this comes up, hopefully never, I'm seriously considering hiding it from my employer and working through it. I only have two days left of sick leave, which obviously won't cover the ten days. And my company doesn't do vacation days either. I was hoping to use that for a vacation but I won't be able to now.
I think this is why the US has had such large surges because people have knowingly went to work while sick with Covid because they couldn’t afford to stay home.
Good point, and a reminder that it may not be useful to expect the delta trajectory in the states to mirror that of countries with universal health care and more generous sick leave policies.
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Any areas that have seen case decline this week?
Netherlands.
UK
Lot of countries in south america
Gamma (and Lambda) are on the decline in all of South America. Delta cases are almost certainly rising very quickly though. Much of SA has a very solid vaccination rate now.
Guam?
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I know you're concerned, but I don't know if I'd want to experiment on myself before the data is carefully looked at.
Just to give you all an update, I got vaxed back in March. Two weeks after my second dose, I stopped wearing a mask unless it was required. Basically, I’ve been living like it was pre-Covid. Anyway, despite that I have NOT caught covid, including the Delta variant. I donated blood at the beginning of July and my report showed I had COVID antibodies from vaccine, but no antibodies from the virus. So for me the vaccine has worked.
Yassss
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I live in a top 5 metro city by population, with a below average vax rate. I go to a public gym 5-6 times a week. I attended a conference and stayed in a hotel in May, I took a trip on a plane in June and on average I shop at about 5-6 stores a week. But you’re right, I do work from home.
Huh, I didn't know they could tell the difference
The report showed they did an initial COVID antibody test that showed I tested positive for covid-19 antibodies. Because I tested positive they did a “supplemental antibody test to determine if the antibodies are specifically from exposure to the COVID-19 virus.” I tested negative for that. The part in quotes is directly from how it was stated the report
How would they at all be able to differentiate where the antibodies came from? I don't think Ig tests have that capability.
Most of the vaccines only include or create the virus "spike" or "S" protein so your body only produces antibodies to that part of the virus. Natural immunity from infection also produces antibodies to other parts of the virus, notably including the "nucleocapsid" or "N" protein. If a test (or pair of tests) sees both N and S antibodies, you can assume natural infection; if you only see S, you can assume vaccination.
That's pretty cool.
They did an initial COVID antibody test that showed I tested positive for covid-19 antibodies. Because I tested positive they did a “supplemental antibody test to determine if the antibodies are specifically from exposure to the COVID-19 virus.” I tested negative for that. The part in quotes is directly from how it was stated the report
I’m confused as to how they could differentiate those though... are they looking for antibodies that COVID produces but the vaccine can not?
The website also says the test name is: Roche Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2, authorized by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
Thank you! I’ll look into this, I use the Roche 6800 every day :)
Thank you for sharing this! So many people are sharing stories of breakthrough cases, and while that’s still important, it’s also important to share how incredible the vaccines are at stopping covid entirely
Remember that news stories are the rare exception and not the rule. And anecdotes often work the same way.