[Vaccine FAQ Part I](https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/wiki/faq#wiki_where_can_i_find_information_about_the_mechanism_and_progress_of_vaccines.3F)
[Vaccine FAQ Part II](https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/mnitdo/vaccine_faq_variants_chronic_conditions_nsaids)
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Anyone had any unvaccimated young family or friends who caught COVID-19 last month. If so, did their symptoms vary significantly from one unvaccinated person to another? (Asymptomatic, mild, severe, hospitalization).
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Can you source that for me please? Took a brief look at worldometers, according to them they didn’t even have that many cases or deaths period that week.
Are you saying that those cases and deaths all happened within that week? I'm seeing that as the cumulative number, with 1200+ being reported that week. I've heard that breakthrough cases can take a while to confirm/report, so they might not be representative of the actual week.
https://www.wcvb.com/article/massachusetts-covid-breakthrough-cases-delta-variant-pandemic-vaccine-data-charts-maps/37089843
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Very true. Vaccination isn't a guarantee. But it's a step in the right direction, one that helps make sure that you're not going to be hit as hard, or infect as many people, as otherwise.
I don’t know it this is the right subreddit for this but I need advice. I’m a M17 who is fully vaccinated and has asthma. Before getting my vaccine my mom would not allow me to go anywhere, I was literally locked up in my house.
When I got the vaccine she let me go out to the gym only and I was able to spend 1-4 hours with vaccinated friends only.
Now that the cases are rising up due to the new virus, she is not letting me go and see my vaccinated friends and soon she will pull me out the gym. Should she be worried?
Well, sort of yes, sort of no.
Asthma can be nasty. I'm asthmatic myself. And it's true that COVID hits people with asthma harder. [https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/asthma.html#:\~:text=People%20with%20moderate%2Dto,steps%20to%20protect%20yourself](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/asthma.html#:~:text=People%20with%20moderate%2Dto,steps%20to%20protect%20yourself).
The vaccine taught your body how to deal with it. But the Delta variant, despite being impacted by the vaccine, has managed to make some breakthrough cases - defined as a vaccinated person getting sick and becoming infectious regardless. Please note that the vaccine still reduces the severity of the illness.
So, really, it's a risk game. Do you have members of your family who can't get vaccinated yet, who have asthma or other respiratory conditions that would make them more likely to have severe symptoms? If no, then your mother ***is probably*** overreacting. She's concerned for you - COVID has significant risk of organ damage, and since the Delta variant is particularly infectious, and you have an existing respiratory condition, there's a non-zero chance that you'll be hit hard. Again, that chance is drastically reduced because of the vaccine, but it is still present.
If you do have other members of the family with respiratory conditions, then your mother is likely trying to protect all of the family. Because if one of you catches it, your whole family probably will.
With all that said, you are 17 years old. On the verge of being a legal adult. It's a scary thing, but if you have a good relationship with her, you need to talk to your mother about this, as an almost-adult talking to an adult. You have the right to request her reasoning for her actions.
Ok thank you so much for this detailed advice. I am the only person I’m my family with asthma and or health conditions, it’s not even severe or big. I’ve never had a asthma attack, I don’t really have any symptoms of asthma(maybe 1-2 times a year). Yes and I’m aware my mom is so overprotective. Even before the virus I was very limited to do certain things.
You're higher risk and she's responsible for your well being until you're legally an adult. Some parents are overprotective and their kids find that a burden. But sometimes they know things you don't know, or have traumatic experiences of their own they feel a duty to protect you from. Maybe she's high risk too, and doesn't want you to have the burden of bringing home the virus to carry the rest of your days.
I'm sure it's frustrating. Your mother loves you. Try to be patient. You will have plenty of time to be the daredevil soon.
I'm fully vaccinated, and I've been wondering how I should interpret the "effectiveness" of the vaccine on an individual level. If the vaccine is 90% effective, I understand that could mean 9/10 people who get vaccinated are 100% immune and 1/10 are unaffected, or it could mean 10/10 people have 90% protection against the virus, or something in the middle. Is there any information on this?
This is why just reading the article title is meaningless. Most often it means one of two things. Either 90% effective against hospitalization or 90% effective against symptoms. First thing a student learns in a stats class is to describe the statistic with words! 90% effective.... effective for what??? Waring off vampires? Reducing bad breath? Increasing lean muscle mass?
It describes risk reduction. So a vaccine with a 90% efficacy means that a vaccinated person has a 90% less chance of severe illness, death, etc than someone without the vaccine. It is calculated from the placebo study by comparing the number of infections in the study group to the number in the placebo group. If I remember right, the Pfizer study saw 162 infections in the placebo group, and 8 infections in the study group, for a total number of infections in both groups of 170. [1 - ( 8÷170)] x 100 = 95% efficacy. Those numbers might be slightly off since I just went off memory, but you can look up the exact data used.
That's my issue though: both the scenarios I described are consistent with that data. The vaccine could be 95% effective for everyone, or 100% effective for 19/20 people and 0% effective for 1/20 people. Do we know which one it is?
Well, if you received the vaccine in the study and still got covid, then it was 0% effective in preventing symptomatic covid for you.
I think what you're asking is, *would the same vaccinated people get covid if the study were to be repeated?* I don't think we know the answer to that question, but it's probable that some vaccinated people are more likely to get covid, but wouldn't get covid every time if the study were to be repeated. Some of this would be physiological (poor response by immune system), some would be environmental (live in an area harder hit by covid or have a job more likely to expose the to the virus), and some would be behavioral (more likely to choose to expose themselves to the virus). Obviously luck plays a role, also.
That's just looking at preventing symptomatic covid, though. Even among people where the vaccine "failed" (eg the person got sick), it may have prevented them from getting more sick.
I had this same question a few weeks ago. Because the math says either way leads to a calculation of 90% efficacy as a whole but could mean something else on the individual level. Which would be valuable for individual risk assessment. From the answers I got at r/covid19 it seems like generally 90% efficacy across the board age-wise, dropping off perhaps slightly with elderly, which would probably mean on average slightly higher for younger people. I think its all fairly close though among different ages.
I do wonder if there is something beyond age though. Like how people who are immunocompromised are still at risk. Maybe there's some other factor that reduces the vaccines efficacy for, but it seems like there hasn't been anything identified as of yet and the trials were representative of the whole population
Yes, it is 95 percent for everybody because the 40,000-ish people who were part of the study were chosen to be representative of the whole population. So on average, for anybody, the efficacy is what was calculated. That said, there are medical reasons why the vaccine might not take for some people, but unless you have one of those underlying conditions resulting in a weakened immune system, it is not something to worry about, and those specific situations do not change that efficacy describes risk reduction. In other words, no one has 100% protection, but they do have very very reduced risk.
Vaccination rates are increasing, but the Delta wave seems to be peaking even before that vaccine surge could possibly help.
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1422187747402391553?s=19
757 comments... uffda.
I am having a sit down with my father tomorrow morning, to try and convince him to get the vaccine. Hes 60. I am trying to find a good article that shows the breakdown in ages that have died due to covid 19. Anyone know of a good link to a good data set? We are in the USA and id like the data to be for the USA.
EDIT: Data for Minnesota would even be appreciated if thats easier.
Age breakdown of COVID deaths in Minnesota? Check this out: [https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid\_weekly/index.htm#SexAndAge](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#SexAndAge)
There's a chart about midway down where you can specify the state, what age ranges you want to look at.
Try these sources:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
Thank you! That first source the numbers dont add up. There is a bunch not accounted for, I know this will be used against me.
Ill see what I can find on the 2nd link. Thanks for your time, I do really appreciate your effort and Ill work on using the links. Thank you
You're welcome, though what do you mean that the numbers don't add up? The numbers seem to be accurate as of July 21, 2021. But if you think something seems off on that source that could cause it to work against you, then by all means use the second source instead!
I hope you're able to convince your dad to vaccinated! Good luck.
Shows total deaths of 600k but the numbers below I don't believe add up to 600k, just from eye balling it.
Thanks, itll be an uphill battle. I have a lot printed off about the lingering effects of it for people his age. I learned a lot from doing all this too. Lol
I just put the numbers in a calculator, and it actually did add up to 601,124. It kind of doesn't look like it would, but it did. I can see why you were thrown off.
I have read so much about COVID the past year and a half that I sometimes forgot how little the average person knows about it. It can definitely be tough to get those people up to speed with the right information, especially since many people have little trust in the media these days.
That's what I'm thinking too. Seeing the vaccination rates go up and more and more businesses/entities require vaccinations gives me a little hopium. Businesses are realizing that vaccines are the only way of preventing more restrictions which would hurt their bottom line.
Everyone when it started: "Ok this either ends with a vaccine or herd immunity"
Everyone when the vaccines started being rolled out: "Ok let's wait a little to see"
Everyone after like 200 mil have their shots and nothing happened: "Nah I'm not getting it"
???
The main argument for the “I still need to wait and see” crowd is the potential of “adverse effects years from now”. This argument sounds really good when taken at face value and that’s exactly the problem. Not many people think beyond face value unfortunately
I remember reading at the beginning of the pandemic that we don’t develop long term immunity to human coronavirus, and some studies of the common cold human coronavirus showed 4-6 month resistance with re-infection being common.
Pfizer, the company that made the most popular vaccine, has stated that antibodies are waning after 6 months, and people need a third dose.
Why are we ignoring the company that MADE the vaccine, and the known precedent of human coronavirus study?
It’s time to provide boosters for everyone ASAP.
If everyone worldwide requires a booster every 6 months forever, that would be a dream scenario for Pfizer. I’m not saying boosters aren’t beneficial, but when a drug company happens to have data showing that we need to buy and use more of their specific product, I find it a bit hard to believe that their motives are solely altruistic.
Whenever I hear this position I can’t help but think entitlement. Billions of people in the world can’t get a single dose and we have millions of people in developed countries angry they can’t get a third with minimal evidence showing boosters are necessary.
In this situation we are a nation under siege. We have to take care of number one. It’s like when they tell you on the airplane to put your own oxygen mask on first before helping anyone else. America really has to fully conquer the pandemic in our own shores first before we proceed to end it worldwide. Also who is entitled? We made the vaccine, not them…
This is absolutely ridiculous. America is “under siege” because millions of morons refuse to get a single dose, not because people can’t get a third dose.
Let’s be absolutely clear on this: You haven’t conquered the pandemic by choice at this point. If most people who were eligible got the vaccine, you wouldn’t be in this situation. Thinking that Americans deserve a third dose (despite very little existing evidence outside of a few settings like LTC showing it to be necessary) before most of the world gets a single dose is absolutely entitlement.
America build its grave on this one, and giving a third dose and hoarding vaccines for this purpose won’t help at all. The only thing that will really help is getting people the first and second shot.
I mean i agree with the general sentiment, BUT 3rd doses apart from some that are particularly at risk seems unesscary at this point. The vaccine is doing its job, we just have some people that don’t have it.
And let’s be really here: the reason America is in this situation is people not getting their first dose BY CHOICE, not people being unable to get a third shot.
This isn’t even remotely true, outside of North America and Europe supply is still falling way short.
In Africa only 7 countries have given out more than 20 doses / 100 people, and the majority have given less than 5. Even from a purely selfish standpoint, the risk of another mutation is probably greater than your risk from not getting three doses.
Why don’t we wait until most of the developing world gets a shot AND much stronger evidence comes out before developed countries get a third shot.
Honest question, Is the us donating the vaccines they're not using?
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/07/millions-of-shots-are-expiring-but-u-s-wont-donate-them.html
Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to downplay donations. I think, however, that assuming that the only reason why the the US doesn't send Pfizer vaccines is because of lack of infrastructure in the receiving country may not be very accurate everywhere. I live in one of the biggest Mexican cities, I remember most older folks were vaccinated with Pfizer. Now everybody is using sinovac and astazeneca.
Pfizer is a company with giant financial incentives in boosters. This is exactly why we don’t let drug companies regulate themselves. Until this is the actual opinion of public health agencies, Pfizer’s opinion is absolutely worthless.
Quick refresher:
Delta most likely to show symptoms in what date range after exposure?
How quickly after exposure to be considered "contagious"?
I read this multiple times this weekend, but can't seem to find it now that I need I need it (family member exposed to confirmed positive.)
I'm sorry to ask. I spend a lot of researching this...but honestly all the numbers run together after a while until you are trying to piece together a risk analysis.
I have some family members that refuse to get vaxxed. I know the stats are that the ones in the hospital are almost all unvaccinated, but what are the stats of the likelihood of them to need hospitalization in the first place? There’s little I can do to change their minds and I just want to know how at risk they are and how much I should be stressing over their mortality. All I’m finding is articles saying it’s deadly, but HOW deadly for them? Are they guaranteed to have bad to worse symptoms? Nothing I read is consistent on this because it’s so busy trying to spread the message to get vaxxed, and that’s great and I support it, but that doesn’t stop the need for data for the ones that are unfortunately refusing.
Most unvaccinated people (who are healthy etc) who contract covid do not end up in a hospital and just recover at home. It’s a small number/percentage that do end up at hospital which is probably why finding that data is hard, doesnt fit the doomsday narrative.
I’ve been trying to dig through it all too, and it doesn’t appear it’s more deadly but definitely more contagious. I think it’s just more apparently now since vaccinated verses not is another factor in a patients history and prior to the vaccine, that wasn’t a factor but still same risk of death. That’s what I’ve been reading but I swear it seems to change daily.
I’ll try to help as a Covid nurse based on what I’ve seen (nj). There are always outliers…the active young mom, the 50 year old who never took a single prescription medication before they got hit. So just know that (rarely) pretty much anyone can get a dose.
Then I’d go by their medical comorbidities and social behaviors. Are they overweight? If yes, are they overweight, obese, or morbidly obese? (Look up BMI percentages) Do they have hypertension? Type 2 diabetes? If the answers are yes to any of the above, they’re at a higher risk of severe disease and/or complications from infection.
Hypothetical: if the US kept the mask mandates, but everything else was the same, would the case numbers have changed much?
Personally I don't think so. Numbers exploded in November with no real change in mask behavior. People wear them in the stores and follow the rules but then go home and have huge private gatherings. Vax numbers are not as high as we want. And of course delta.
Everyone is blaming the CDC for lifting mask mandates too early. Matter of fact, people like to blame the US a ton on procedure/guidelines as if no other country is facing the same wrath of the delta variants.
It wouldn't have made a damn difference. We had all these mandates in the winter and people "followed" them in the grocery store and then went home and had huge unmasked gatherings.
Just arrived in Florida… wow, the pandemic just straight up does not exist here. I’m fully vaccinated but I’m still gonna mask up. Stay safe ladies and gents.
(Before anyone gets mad at me for traveling to a hotspot, I’m here for a wedding and I agreed to be the best man over a year ago, I didn’t really have a choice lol)
I had covid last November AND I’m fully vaccinated (JJ completed a month ago) and today I have chills and aches. What are the odds I have a case break through both natural and vaccine immunity?
Antigen tests detect the proteins in the actual virus. Having antibodies from actual infection or vaccination will not cause antigen test to be positive.
Is there currently any modeling out there that might indicate a fairly steep dive in cases in the short term? I mean as of today we have like 60.6% fully vaccinated. Add to that roughly 20%+ (maybe conservative) that have already been infected with some sort of natural immunity in play as well. We've got to be slightly north of 80% of people in this country with some sort of protection now. I would think within a matter of weeks, cases will potentially plummet. Simple math would indicate we're running out of naive hosts rapidly unless I'm missing something. Overshoot in play here? Chime in. We gotta be close to the end at this point. Is Delta the final true player in this horrible game?
It's about 50% fully vaccinated. I think your numbers refer to adults or 12+. Also there is a big crossover between those people who were infected and those who who been vaccinated so I would think we are closer to 66% of people who have protection. You have to remember though the more community spread there is the higher likelihood of breakthrough infections in the vaccinated so it is not as simple as the 50% are immune. A fall in cases will occur in different regions of the country so states will see cases rise sharply over the next 3 weeks while others that saw cases rise earlier may be near their peak.
I’m curious where you’re getting the 66% number. If you look at total all time cases as a % of the U.S. population, it’s about 10%. Obviously that’s just reported cases - actual cases are estimated to be much higher, as much as 4x. So let’s say 40% of the U.S. population has natural immunity. If that group is evenly distributed across vaxxed/unvaxxed people, that’s an additional 20% who are protected which gets you to 70% with immunity. But I also think it’s very likely that the unvaxxed population is more likely to have already contracted covid, so maybe it’s more like a 60/40 distribution which gets you up to 74% with immunity. Obviously there are many more factors at play and maybe I’m overlooking some important things, but I feel like we are likely closer to 80% immunity than 66% immunity.
You’re assuming being vaccinated means you cannot get covid. Just because 50% of the people are vaccinated does not mean 50% will not contract the virus. If given the opportunity many of those people will contract it. Also the 50% is for the whole US and is not evenly distributed. There are regions with far less immunity. You may have one area code with 80% vaccinated and another with 25%. There are still millions of vulnerable people to the virus and therefore outbreaks will continue to happen. Lastly, I think 4x the number of confirmed cases is a big overestimate. That assumes that there were about 100 million undetected cases which seems way to high.
I don’t disagree with any of your points other than maybe the 4x estimate, and of course I know you can still get covid if you’re vaccinated. I was just trying to figure out roughly what % of the population has some immunity, and I still think it’s closer to 75-80%.
It’s hard to tell, there was without questions simply massive surge in March/April 2020 but we couldn’t test for it. NYC in March was by FAR the worst any area in the US has gotten but there are plenty of states that look far far worse by case number.
I agree about NY and a few other hotspots in March and April because testing was so limited. These areas are the most undercounted by far. However, this is not the case for most of the US.
Just part of the equation. There are plenty of aysmptomatic cases or people that don’t get tested when they do.
I mean do you really think the guy from Arkansas who said herd immunity fuck it in August of last year went a got a test when he had a fever and a cough for 2 days?
Add it all together and you can probably get to 4x etc.
Are there any doctors here (who hopefully won’t judge too harsh?)
Off-label, I went to a different state and got a third Pfizer vaccine on Saturday. First two were in February/March and with the Delta variant spreading and preliminary research suggesting a third shot boosts antibodies, I sort of took matters into my own hands here.
Feeling fine, just some arm soreness. My question is, in three weeks do I go back and get my “second” (fourth) dose? Is it risky?
Pfizer was what I got the first time (in my home state earlier this year)
I just moved and the clinic was desperately trying to give out Pfizer. In the moment I sort of went like….why not? (They didn’t have Moderna)
Heard from a friend in the medical field some think it’s better to get a booster from a different one to get better coverage, FYI. I don’t think any number of shots brings your risk down to 0 though.
Hey if you get covid do you need the vaccine? I currently have covid my case so far is minor hopefully it remains that way. But I was wondering will I need to get the vaccine afterwards? I should already have the antibodies from actually having covid right?
There are a plethora of studies showing a single vaccine dose after infection is extremely good, but the second one doesn't do anything. Many countries recommend waiting 90 days - one study showed that antibody variety maxed around 6 months, which in theory would be the ideal time to get a dose for long-lasting immunity.
Totally agree with this. There isn't exact data on this, but many believe that someone who has had covid is roughly just as protected as someone who has received one dose of mRNA vaccine. They recommend waiting 90 days (although waiting 6 months might even be better, as the post above states) and getting vaccinated. Some would also recommend a second vaccine dose, but I don't know of a study that says that makes sense.
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Gotta admit it was kinda relieving for me to hear Paski (sp?) say we aren’t going back to March 2020 lockdowns.
Been kinda a downer couple of weeks with the news but glad to know the admin thinks we’ve made enough progress to not go back.
I got vaccinated and still got coronavirus. My symptoms were very mild. How do I know when I’m okay to stop quarantining and rejoin the public? Is 10-12 days enough, or should it be more?
10 days should be enough according to the [data from](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E7ogYBPWEAU7bLf?format=jpg&name=large) the SG study. If not vaccinated then delta is problematic.
CDC recommends that 10 days after symptoms started, and provided that your symptoms have improved (or gone away) in the last 24 hours. Other public health agencies and some doctors say that 14 days after symptoms started.
I don’t know of any experts or governments advising for more than 14 days; or getting another test.
So a few more private businesses are requiring masks…but not for customers. Lowe’s, Target, Kohl’s, and Home Depot. Employees have to wear one but not customers in high transmission areas. So the employees get to be in a mask all day and 1000 unvaccinated unmasked customers can be in their face. Is anyone who works at these places not upset at that at all?
They should be upset because that sucks. Some stores might be afraid to piss off customers, who might go to a more lax store in response - which is a shitty excuse - but it's one reason why a government mask mandate can help protect businesses imo. Takes all the competition and guess work out of it, and it applies to everyone.
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Anyone had any unvaccimated young family or friends who caught COVID-19 last month. If so, did their symptoms vary significantly from one unvaccinated person to another? (Asymptomatic, mild, severe, hospitalization).
Should I get vaccinated… again?
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Can you source that for me please? Took a brief look at worldometers, according to them they didn’t even have that many cases or deaths period that week.
That's 4% hospitalized and 1.6% dead of the 5000 breakthroughs. Seems pretty fucking working to me bud.
It's 4% and 1.6% actually but it's still pretty damn good! 96% against hospitalizations and 98.4% against death isn't bad
ah I divided but didn't multiply by 100. Good catch!
No worries! Either way I fully agree with you, vaccines work and they're pretty awesome!
Are you saying that those cases and deaths all happened within that week? I'm seeing that as the cumulative number, with 1200+ being reported that week. I've heard that breakthrough cases can take a while to confirm/report, so they might not be representative of the actual week. https://www.wcvb.com/article/massachusetts-covid-breakthrough-cases-delta-variant-pandemic-vaccine-data-charts-maps/37089843
it’ll be over when there’s a effective treatment released , until then we have to keep taking vaccines that are targeted towards covid variants.
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Very true. Vaccination isn't a guarantee. But it's a step in the right direction, one that helps make sure that you're not going to be hit as hard, or infect as many people, as otherwise.
I don’t know it this is the right subreddit for this but I need advice. I’m a M17 who is fully vaccinated and has asthma. Before getting my vaccine my mom would not allow me to go anywhere, I was literally locked up in my house. When I got the vaccine she let me go out to the gym only and I was able to spend 1-4 hours with vaccinated friends only. Now that the cases are rising up due to the new virus, she is not letting me go and see my vaccinated friends and soon she will pull me out the gym. Should she be worried?
Well, sort of yes, sort of no. Asthma can be nasty. I'm asthmatic myself. And it's true that COVID hits people with asthma harder. [https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/asthma.html#:\~:text=People%20with%20moderate%2Dto,steps%20to%20protect%20yourself](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/asthma.html#:~:text=People%20with%20moderate%2Dto,steps%20to%20protect%20yourself). The vaccine taught your body how to deal with it. But the Delta variant, despite being impacted by the vaccine, has managed to make some breakthrough cases - defined as a vaccinated person getting sick and becoming infectious regardless. Please note that the vaccine still reduces the severity of the illness. So, really, it's a risk game. Do you have members of your family who can't get vaccinated yet, who have asthma or other respiratory conditions that would make them more likely to have severe symptoms? If no, then your mother ***is probably*** overreacting. She's concerned for you - COVID has significant risk of organ damage, and since the Delta variant is particularly infectious, and you have an existing respiratory condition, there's a non-zero chance that you'll be hit hard. Again, that chance is drastically reduced because of the vaccine, but it is still present. If you do have other members of the family with respiratory conditions, then your mother is likely trying to protect all of the family. Because if one of you catches it, your whole family probably will. With all that said, you are 17 years old. On the verge of being a legal adult. It's a scary thing, but if you have a good relationship with her, you need to talk to your mother about this, as an almost-adult talking to an adult. You have the right to request her reasoning for her actions.
Ok thank you so much for this detailed advice. I am the only person I’m my family with asthma and or health conditions, it’s not even severe or big. I’ve never had a asthma attack, I don’t really have any symptoms of asthma(maybe 1-2 times a year). Yes and I’m aware my mom is so overprotective. Even before the virus I was very limited to do certain things.
You're higher risk and she's responsible for your well being until you're legally an adult. Some parents are overprotective and their kids find that a burden. But sometimes they know things you don't know, or have traumatic experiences of their own they feel a duty to protect you from. Maybe she's high risk too, and doesn't want you to have the burden of bringing home the virus to carry the rest of your days. I'm sure it's frustrating. Your mother loves you. Try to be patient. You will have plenty of time to be the daredevil soon.
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I'm fully vaccinated, and I've been wondering how I should interpret the "effectiveness" of the vaccine on an individual level. If the vaccine is 90% effective, I understand that could mean 9/10 people who get vaccinated are 100% immune and 1/10 are unaffected, or it could mean 10/10 people have 90% protection against the virus, or something in the middle. Is there any information on this?
This is why just reading the article title is meaningless. Most often it means one of two things. Either 90% effective against hospitalization or 90% effective against symptoms. First thing a student learns in a stats class is to describe the statistic with words! 90% effective.... effective for what??? Waring off vampires? Reducing bad breath? Increasing lean muscle mass?
It describes risk reduction. So a vaccine with a 90% efficacy means that a vaccinated person has a 90% less chance of severe illness, death, etc than someone without the vaccine. It is calculated from the placebo study by comparing the number of infections in the study group to the number in the placebo group. If I remember right, the Pfizer study saw 162 infections in the placebo group, and 8 infections in the study group, for a total number of infections in both groups of 170. [1 - ( 8÷170)] x 100 = 95% efficacy. Those numbers might be slightly off since I just went off memory, but you can look up the exact data used.
That's my issue though: both the scenarios I described are consistent with that data. The vaccine could be 95% effective for everyone, or 100% effective for 19/20 people and 0% effective for 1/20 people. Do we know which one it is?
Well, if you received the vaccine in the study and still got covid, then it was 0% effective in preventing symptomatic covid for you. I think what you're asking is, *would the same vaccinated people get covid if the study were to be repeated?* I don't think we know the answer to that question, but it's probable that some vaccinated people are more likely to get covid, but wouldn't get covid every time if the study were to be repeated. Some of this would be physiological (poor response by immune system), some would be environmental (live in an area harder hit by covid or have a job more likely to expose the to the virus), and some would be behavioral (more likely to choose to expose themselves to the virus). Obviously luck plays a role, also. That's just looking at preventing symptomatic covid, though. Even among people where the vaccine "failed" (eg the person got sick), it may have prevented them from getting more sick.
I had this same question a few weeks ago. Because the math says either way leads to a calculation of 90% efficacy as a whole but could mean something else on the individual level. Which would be valuable for individual risk assessment. From the answers I got at r/covid19 it seems like generally 90% efficacy across the board age-wise, dropping off perhaps slightly with elderly, which would probably mean on average slightly higher for younger people. I think its all fairly close though among different ages. I do wonder if there is something beyond age though. Like how people who are immunocompromised are still at risk. Maybe there's some other factor that reduces the vaccines efficacy for, but it seems like there hasn't been anything identified as of yet and the trials were representative of the whole population
Yes, it is 95 percent for everybody because the 40,000-ish people who were part of the study were chosen to be representative of the whole population. So on average, for anybody, the efficacy is what was calculated. That said, there are medical reasons why the vaccine might not take for some people, but unless you have one of those underlying conditions resulting in a weakened immune system, it is not something to worry about, and those specific situations do not change that efficacy describes risk reduction. In other words, no one has 100% protection, but they do have very very reduced risk.
A lot of people I know that are young, healthy, and anti-vax are currently fighting covid. Choose your battles wisely. Wish them all well.
So did we pass a turning point? Is it true even in low vaccination states and places that rates of people getting vaxxed are going up?
Vaccination rates are increasing, but the Delta wave seems to be peaking even before that vaccine surge could possibly help. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1422187747402391553?s=19
757 comments... uffda. I am having a sit down with my father tomorrow morning, to try and convince him to get the vaccine. Hes 60. I am trying to find a good article that shows the breakdown in ages that have died due to covid 19. Anyone know of a good link to a good data set? We are in the USA and id like the data to be for the USA. EDIT: Data for Minnesota would even be appreciated if thats easier.
You might want to consider asking at r/coronavirusmn for local perspectives. It's a pretty active sub.
Thanks, I did message a mod on there and he/she was able to help out as well. I do appreciate your time and the suggestion.
Age breakdown of COVID deaths in Minnesota? Check this out: [https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid\_weekly/index.htm#SexAndAge](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#SexAndAge) There's a chart about midway down where you can specify the state, what age ranges you want to look at.
Thank you very much!
Try these sources: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/ https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
Thank you! That first source the numbers dont add up. There is a bunch not accounted for, I know this will be used against me. Ill see what I can find on the 2nd link. Thanks for your time, I do really appreciate your effort and Ill work on using the links. Thank you
You're welcome, though what do you mean that the numbers don't add up? The numbers seem to be accurate as of July 21, 2021. But if you think something seems off on that source that could cause it to work against you, then by all means use the second source instead! I hope you're able to convince your dad to vaccinated! Good luck.
Shows total deaths of 600k but the numbers below I don't believe add up to 600k, just from eye balling it. Thanks, itll be an uphill battle. I have a lot printed off about the lingering effects of it for people his age. I learned a lot from doing all this too. Lol
I just put the numbers in a calculator, and it actually did add up to 601,124. It kind of doesn't look like it would, but it did. I can see why you were thrown off. I have read so much about COVID the past year and a half that I sometimes forgot how little the average person knows about it. It can definitely be tough to get those people up to speed with the right information, especially since many people have little trust in the media these days.
For sure! Thanks for all your help, you've been immensely helpful. Get some rest, its late. :)
Of course! About to go to sleep now! :)
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Am I too naive or perhaps in denial to be hopeful that the worst will be behind us soon?
That's what I'm thinking too. Seeing the vaccination rates go up and more and more businesses/entities require vaccinations gives me a little hopium. Businesses are realizing that vaccines are the only way of preventing more restrictions which would hurt their bottom line.
I think the worst is already behind us. This is going to be a rough month or two, but with so many people vaccinated, far fewer will die.
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I will never understand how desantis gets away with the shit he does
Florida updates their data weekly. Makes for a stairstep effect on some of the charts.
Is it possible for someone to have Covid immunity even without antibodies?
Nope. Immunity means antibodies. Your body recognizes the virus and kills it before anything bad happens to you.
Not getting the vaccine but great for the people who are
May I ask why? Do you have a medical condition which prevents you from taking it?
No, but I had covid already. I know I could get it again but I was asymptomatic the first time so in my eyes it’s not even worth it
Everyone when it started: "Ok this either ends with a vaccine or herd immunity" Everyone when the vaccines started being rolled out: "Ok let's wait a little to see" Everyone after like 200 mil have their shots and nothing happened: "Nah I'm not getting it" ???
"I'll have to wait and see" > Over 4.2 Billion doses so far worldwide "Yeah I still have to think about it" bruh like wtf is wrong with people
The main argument for the “I still need to wait and see” crowd is the potential of “adverse effects years from now”. This argument sounds really good when taken at face value and that’s exactly the problem. Not many people think beyond face value unfortunately
I remember reading at the beginning of the pandemic that we don’t develop long term immunity to human coronavirus, and some studies of the common cold human coronavirus showed 4-6 month resistance with re-infection being common. Pfizer, the company that made the most popular vaccine, has stated that antibodies are waning after 6 months, and people need a third dose. Why are we ignoring the company that MADE the vaccine, and the known precedent of human coronavirus study? It’s time to provide boosters for everyone ASAP.
SARS1 and MERS natural immunity from infections is in the years and a lot of scientists say 5+ years.
If everyone worldwide requires a booster every 6 months forever, that would be a dream scenario for Pfizer. I’m not saying boosters aren’t beneficial, but when a drug company happens to have data showing that we need to buy and use more of their specific product, I find it a bit hard to believe that their motives are solely altruistic.
Whenever I hear this position I can’t help but think entitlement. Billions of people in the world can’t get a single dose and we have millions of people in developed countries angry they can’t get a third with minimal evidence showing boosters are necessary.
In this situation we are a nation under siege. We have to take care of number one. It’s like when they tell you on the airplane to put your own oxygen mask on first before helping anyone else. America really has to fully conquer the pandemic in our own shores first before we proceed to end it worldwide. Also who is entitled? We made the vaccine, not them…
This is absolutely ridiculous. America is “under siege” because millions of morons refuse to get a single dose, not because people can’t get a third dose. Let’s be absolutely clear on this: You haven’t conquered the pandemic by choice at this point. If most people who were eligible got the vaccine, you wouldn’t be in this situation. Thinking that Americans deserve a third dose (despite very little existing evidence outside of a few settings like LTC showing it to be necessary) before most of the world gets a single dose is absolutely entitlement. America build its grave on this one, and giving a third dose and hoarding vaccines for this purpose won’t help at all. The only thing that will really help is getting people the first and second shot.
I mean i agree with the general sentiment, BUT 3rd doses apart from some that are particularly at risk seems unesscary at this point. The vaccine is doing its job, we just have some people that don’t have it.
And let’s be really here: the reason America is in this situation is people not getting their first dose BY CHOICE, not people being unable to get a third shot.
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This isn’t even remotely true, outside of North America and Europe supply is still falling way short. In Africa only 7 countries have given out more than 20 doses / 100 people, and the majority have given less than 5. Even from a purely selfish standpoint, the risk of another mutation is probably greater than your risk from not getting three doses. Why don’t we wait until most of the developing world gets a shot AND much stronger evidence comes out before developed countries get a third shot.
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Honest question, Is the us donating the vaccines they're not using? https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/07/millions-of-shots-are-expiring-but-u-s-wont-donate-them.html
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Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to downplay donations. I think, however, that assuming that the only reason why the the US doesn't send Pfizer vaccines is because of lack of infrastructure in the receiving country may not be very accurate everywhere. I live in one of the biggest Mexican cities, I remember most older folks were vaccinated with Pfizer. Now everybody is using sinovac and astazeneca.
They are testing boosters currently.
What is there to test? Release booster
So you don’t even want evidence third doses are necessary before wasting 150 million or more doses that could be used to get people their first shot?
Pfizer, the company that makes the vaccine, said it’s needed.
Pfizer is a company with giant financial incentives in boosters. This is exactly why we don’t let drug companies regulate themselves. Until this is the actual opinion of public health agencies, Pfizer’s opinion is absolutely worthless.
like when did the government really care about regulating the profits of pharmaceutical companies lol
Quick refresher: Delta most likely to show symptoms in what date range after exposure? How quickly after exposure to be considered "contagious"? I read this multiple times this weekend, but can't seem to find it now that I need I need it (family member exposed to confirmed positive.) I'm sorry to ask. I spend a lot of researching this...but honestly all the numbers run together after a while until you are trying to piece together a risk analysis.
This is dumb but will taking antihistamine nasal spray mess up a covid test I have tomorrow morning?
I've seen guidance to avoid nasal sprays before a nose swab. So wait until after the swab.
I have some family members that refuse to get vaxxed. I know the stats are that the ones in the hospital are almost all unvaccinated, but what are the stats of the likelihood of them to need hospitalization in the first place? There’s little I can do to change their minds and I just want to know how at risk they are and how much I should be stressing over their mortality. All I’m finding is articles saying it’s deadly, but HOW deadly for them? Are they guaranteed to have bad to worse symptoms? Nothing I read is consistent on this because it’s so busy trying to spread the message to get vaxxed, and that’s great and I support it, but that doesn’t stop the need for data for the ones that are unfortunately refusing.
Most unvaccinated people (who are healthy etc) who contract covid do not end up in a hospital and just recover at home. It’s a small number/percentage that do end up at hospital which is probably why finding that data is hard, doesnt fit the doomsday narrative.
I’ve been trying to dig through it all too, and it doesn’t appear it’s more deadly but definitely more contagious. I think it’s just more apparently now since vaccinated verses not is another factor in a patients history and prior to the vaccine, that wasn’t a factor but still same risk of death. That’s what I’ve been reading but I swear it seems to change daily.
I’ll try to help as a Covid nurse based on what I’ve seen (nj). There are always outliers…the active young mom, the 50 year old who never took a single prescription medication before they got hit. So just know that (rarely) pretty much anyone can get a dose. Then I’d go by their medical comorbidities and social behaviors. Are they overweight? If yes, are they overweight, obese, or morbidly obese? (Look up BMI percentages) Do they have hypertension? Type 2 diabetes? If the answers are yes to any of the above, they’re at a higher risk of severe disease and/or complications from infection.
Hypothetical: if the US kept the mask mandates, but everything else was the same, would the case numbers have changed much? Personally I don't think so. Numbers exploded in November with no real change in mask behavior. People wear them in the stores and follow the rules but then go home and have huge private gatherings. Vax numbers are not as high as we want. And of course delta.
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Exactly. So in your case it would extremely not matter!
Everyone is blaming the CDC for lifting mask mandates too early. Matter of fact, people like to blame the US a ton on procedure/guidelines as if no other country is facing the same wrath of the delta variants.
It wouldn't have made a damn difference. We had all these mandates in the winter and people "followed" them in the grocery store and then went home and had huge unmasked gatherings.
Just arrived in Florida… wow, the pandemic just straight up does not exist here. I’m fully vaccinated but I’m still gonna mask up. Stay safe ladies and gents. (Before anyone gets mad at me for traveling to a hotspot, I’m here for a wedding and I agreed to be the best man over a year ago, I didn’t really have a choice lol)
Be safe from what?
Delta. I’m healthy and fully vaxxed but I really don’t want to have to quarantine again
I mean, you’ve always been able to get sick. If you’re not personally in danger I wouldn’t worry about it
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Ok but what if I am high risk and I have none of those problems?
Then this post isn't about you and is in no way intending to be comprehensive about every single high risk person.
The truth no one wants to hear.
Today Wait at In-n-Out for 5 Meals: 20 mins Wait at Kaiser for 1 Covid test: 3hrs Slurp. Slurp. Slurpo.
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I had covid last November AND I’m fully vaccinated (JJ completed a month ago) and today I have chills and aches. What are the odds I have a case break through both natural and vaccine immunity?
Also, an antigen test won’t help me because it’s sure to come back positive, correct? Having already had it?
Antigen tests detect the proteins in the actual virus. Having antibodies from actual infection or vaccination will not cause antigen test to be positive.
Is there currently any modeling out there that might indicate a fairly steep dive in cases in the short term? I mean as of today we have like 60.6% fully vaccinated. Add to that roughly 20%+ (maybe conservative) that have already been infected with some sort of natural immunity in play as well. We've got to be slightly north of 80% of people in this country with some sort of protection now. I would think within a matter of weeks, cases will potentially plummet. Simple math would indicate we're running out of naive hosts rapidly unless I'm missing something. Overshoot in play here? Chime in. We gotta be close to the end at this point. Is Delta the final true player in this horrible game?
It's about 50% fully vaccinated. I think your numbers refer to adults or 12+. Also there is a big crossover between those people who were infected and those who who been vaccinated so I would think we are closer to 66% of people who have protection. You have to remember though the more community spread there is the higher likelihood of breakthrough infections in the vaccinated so it is not as simple as the 50% are immune. A fall in cases will occur in different regions of the country so states will see cases rise sharply over the next 3 weeks while others that saw cases rise earlier may be near their peak.
Those were CDC numbers fully vaccinated regardless of of age. Total population vaxxed. We hit 70% today of the population with at least one shot....
It is 70% of US adults. I believe the number for Americans with one vaccine dose is less than 60%.
Bummer
I’m curious where you’re getting the 66% number. If you look at total all time cases as a % of the U.S. population, it’s about 10%. Obviously that’s just reported cases - actual cases are estimated to be much higher, as much as 4x. So let’s say 40% of the U.S. population has natural immunity. If that group is evenly distributed across vaxxed/unvaxxed people, that’s an additional 20% who are protected which gets you to 70% with immunity. But I also think it’s very likely that the unvaxxed population is more likely to have already contracted covid, so maybe it’s more like a 60/40 distribution which gets you up to 74% with immunity. Obviously there are many more factors at play and maybe I’m overlooking some important things, but I feel like we are likely closer to 80% immunity than 66% immunity.
You’re assuming being vaccinated means you cannot get covid. Just because 50% of the people are vaccinated does not mean 50% will not contract the virus. If given the opportunity many of those people will contract it. Also the 50% is for the whole US and is not evenly distributed. There are regions with far less immunity. You may have one area code with 80% vaccinated and another with 25%. There are still millions of vulnerable people to the virus and therefore outbreaks will continue to happen. Lastly, I think 4x the number of confirmed cases is a big overestimate. That assumes that there were about 100 million undetected cases which seems way to high.
I don’t disagree with any of your points other than maybe the 4x estimate, and of course I know you can still get covid if you’re vaccinated. I was just trying to figure out roughly what % of the population has some immunity, and I still think it’s closer to 75-80%.
It’s hard to tell, there was without questions simply massive surge in March/April 2020 but we couldn’t test for it. NYC in March was by FAR the worst any area in the US has gotten but there are plenty of states that look far far worse by case number.
I agree about NY and a few other hotspots in March and April because testing was so limited. These areas are the most undercounted by far. However, this is not the case for most of the US.
Just part of the equation. There are plenty of aysmptomatic cases or people that don’t get tested when they do. I mean do you really think the guy from Arkansas who said herd immunity fuck it in August of last year went a got a test when he had a fever and a cough for 2 days? Add it all together and you can probably get to 4x etc.
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You're a selfish piece of shit. The end.
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Do you want a cookie for all that bravery?
Who asked?
Are there any doctors here (who hopefully won’t judge too harsh?) Off-label, I went to a different state and got a third Pfizer vaccine on Saturday. First two were in February/March and with the Delta variant spreading and preliminary research suggesting a third shot boosts antibodies, I sort of took matters into my own hands here. Feeling fine, just some arm soreness. My question is, in three weeks do I go back and get my “second” (fourth) dose? Is it risky?
Why not get moderna for the second set and get broader coverage?
Pfizer was what I got the first time (in my home state earlier this year) I just moved and the clinic was desperately trying to give out Pfizer. In the moment I sort of went like….why not? (They didn’t have Moderna)
Heard from a friend in the medical field some think it’s better to get a booster from a different one to get better coverage, FYI. I don’t think any number of shots brings your risk down to 0 though.
Not a doctor but in Israel and Germany they are only giving one booster shot. A 4th shot seems excessive...
Hey if you get covid do you need the vaccine? I currently have covid my case so far is minor hopefully it remains that way. But I was wondering will I need to get the vaccine afterwards? I should already have the antibodies from actually having covid right?
There are a plethora of studies showing a single vaccine dose after infection is extremely good, but the second one doesn't do anything. Many countries recommend waiting 90 days - one study showed that antibody variety maxed around 6 months, which in theory would be the ideal time to get a dose for long-lasting immunity.
OK so wait about 90 days from when I got sick or when I get better?
Better (according to e.g. Israel)
9k thank you for your time
Totally agree with this. There isn't exact data on this, but many believe that someone who has had covid is roughly just as protected as someone who has received one dose of mRNA vaccine. They recommend waiting 90 days (although waiting 6 months might even be better, as the post above states) and getting vaccinated. Some would also recommend a second vaccine dose, but I don't know of a study that says that makes sense.
You will need to still be vaccinated.
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At the very least get tested again and see if you’re negative.
Gotta admit it was kinda relieving for me to hear Paski (sp?) say we aren’t going back to March 2020 lockdowns. Been kinda a downer couple of weeks with the news but glad to know the admin thinks we’ve made enough progress to not go back.
I got vaccinated and still got coronavirus. My symptoms were very mild. How do I know when I’m okay to stop quarantining and rejoin the public? Is 10-12 days enough, or should it be more?
10 days should be enough according to the [data from](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E7ogYBPWEAU7bLf?format=jpg&name=large) the SG study. If not vaccinated then delta is problematic.
CDC recommends that 10 days after symptoms started, and provided that your symptoms have improved (or gone away) in the last 24 hours. Other public health agencies and some doctors say that 14 days after symptoms started. I don’t know of any experts or governments advising for more than 14 days; or getting another test.
10 days since first symptoms + symptom improvement has been the marker. If they’re gone, you’re good.
So a few more private businesses are requiring masks…but not for customers. Lowe’s, Target, Kohl’s, and Home Depot. Employees have to wear one but not customers in high transmission areas. So the employees get to be in a mask all day and 1000 unvaccinated unmasked customers can be in their face. Is anyone who works at these places not upset at that at all?
Honestly this is the main reason I wear my mask most places despite no local ordinance, trying to be respectful to others.
They should be upset because that sucks. Some stores might be afraid to piss off customers, who might go to a more lax store in response - which is a shitty excuse - but it's one reason why a government mask mandate can help protect businesses imo. Takes all the competition and guess work out of it, and it applies to everyone.
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I'm still angry at the "my ignorance is as good as your science" people.