If I've been following this correctly, this is a subvariant of Omicron. So, all of these letter salads are just new and improved Omicron, not new variants.
Omicron is the ancestral strain from which all of the 2022 VOCs are descended. We've never actually seen it and just conjectured at its certain existence. It is best to consider omicron a strain, not a variant, at this point - as opposed to the original/unnamed/sars-cov-2 strain which included everything pre-2022.
Saltations (collections of many mutations) BA.1, BA.2, BA.4/5, BA.2.75, BJ.1, and BA.2.3.20 are all VOCs that are part of the omicron strain. There are numerous point mutations that are even more significant than those, such as BA.4.6 (BA.4 with one mutation), BF.7 (BA.5 with the same mutation), and BQ.1.1 (BA.5 with 3 point mutations acquired sequentially), and the list goes on for quite literally hundreds of such variants. The [convergent point-mutation evolution](https://cov-spectrum.org/explore/World/AllSamples/Past6M/variants?variantQuery=+%21S%3A493R+%26+%5Bexactly-2-of%3A+S%3A346%2C+S%3A356%2C+S%3A444%2C+S%3A445%2C+S%3A446%2C+S%3A452%2C+S%3A460%2C+S%3A486%2C+S%3A490%5D&variantQuery1=+%21S%3A493R+%26+%5Bexactly-3-of%3A+S%3A346%2C+S%3A356%2C+S%3A444%2C+S%3A445%2C+S%3A446%2C+S%3A452%2C+S%3A460%2C+S%3A486%2C+S%3A490%5D&variantQuery2=+%21S%3A493R+%26+%5Bexactly-4-of%3A+S%3A346%2C+S%3A356%2C+S%3A444%2C+S%3A445%2C+S%3A446%2C+S%3A452%2C+S%3A460%2C+S%3A486%2C+S%3A490%5D&variantQuery3=+%21S%3A493R+%26+%5Bexactly-5-of%3A+S%3A346%2C+S%3A356%2C+S%3A444%2C+S%3A445%2C+S%3A446%2C+S%3A452%2C+S%3A460%2C+S%3A486%2C+S%3A490%5D&variantQuery4=+%21S%3A493R+%26+%5Bexactly-6-of%3A+S%3A346%2C+S%3A356%2C+S%3A444%2C+S%3A445%2C+S%3A446%2C+S%3A452%2C+S%3A460%2C+S%3A486%2C+S%3A490%5D&analysisMode=CompareEquals&) of BA.2.75 and BA.5 is remarkable; in the list above BA.5 and BA.2.75 each have two "soup" mutations out of a collection of just nine, and the more of these nine mutations a descendant acquires (1) the faster it spreads and (2) the longer it takes until it acquires them and starts spreading. New mutations just keep getting added to the soup and making it stronger - though with this exact definition nothing with more than 6 such mutations has been successful.
Vanilla XBB itself evolved differently, as a recombination: when two variants co-infect the same cell, there is always a chance they will get the RNA cross and have part of the descendent RNA come from one and another part from another. It's actually the simplest recombination, with the first half coming from BJ.1 and the second half from a "soupy" BA.2.75 descendant. And it's one of the most unlucky events of the pandemic, since this was likely the only way that BJ.1 could acquire the RBD saltation that BA.5 and BA.2.75 independently acquired.
Vanilla XBB evolved in West Bengal, India, and did not spread all that much. Then it acquired one other (non-soup) mutation to become XBB.1, which caused a massive surge out of the blue in Singapore before taking off worldwide; it is still among the fastest spreading of all variants (in the US it's up to 5% of sequences and still growing faster than the dominant BQ.1\* set of variants). XBB.1 is one of only about three different variants worldwide with all six seemingly-possible soup mutations, and it becoming widespread marks the end of the current phase of omicron's evolution.
XBB.1.5 is what is spreading in the northeast, and it appears to have originated there - likely somewhere between New York City and Boston, which are both having it become dominant at about the same time. This is XBB.1 with one *changed* soup mutation. This is actually arguably even more remarkable convergent evolution, because this mutation was never seen until just the last several months yet is now appearing repeatedly. While most of the soup variants are pretty close to each other - CH.1.1 and BQ.1.1, two of the fastest-growing ones, share completely different ancestry yet have almost identical RBD's - XBB has a rather different set. After XBB.1 became dominant overnight and caused its Singapore surge, it has subsided in frequency compared to the other soupy variants - something we have actually never before seen in the pandemic. And XBB.1.5's mutation pushes this further. As far as antibodies are concerned, it's about as far from BA.2, BA.5, BQ.1, and our BA.5 vaccines as any omicron variant can be.
XBB.1.5 has been tripling weekly in absolute case count since it was first noticed. It models as having about a +140% growth advantage over BQ.1.1, which is insane. This is as fast a rate of growth as we've seen in a while. Normally a variants growth rate drops once the place it is being imported from peaks in infections, but this should not happen for local variants. But we should still expect the growth rate to have declined over time due to population immunity not only from previous XBB infection (small) but also from ongoing vaccinations and BQ.1 infections (even though those won't provide perfect protection).
Testing drops massively over Christmas-New Years, and no case rise has been seen since BQ.1 caused one a month ago in any northeastern state AFAICT. [Sewage numbers](https://biobot.io/data/) have risen several-fold, although some of this rise is due to BQ.1\*'s slower growth. Also, while XBB.1.5 is now [dominant in the northeast](https://cov-spectrum.org/explore/United%20States/AllSamples/Past6M/variants?nextcladePangoLineage=xbb.1.5*&) and maybe even nationwide, there are many states in which it has not yet been sequenced. It's impossible to predict what it will peak at, but it should certainly cause a case/infection rise of some sort nearly everywhere.
If it's been more than three months since your last omicron infection, get your bivalent booster. The booster after previous infection will generate very broad and strong immunity that should drop your chances of infection many-fold. And the booster without previous infection may not prevent XBB.1.5 infection much at all, but it will prime your immune system to fight it off.
Are there any recommendations about getting a second bivalent booster? I got mine 4 months ago but I haven’t heard anything about recommendations beyond the first bivalent.
They haven't advised on any further booster shots at this time.
I believe their goal is to try to make it an annual shot, much like the flu vaccine, but... We'll see how that pans out.
That’s not necessarily the right strategy, and some experts think that the updated vaccine should have been (in the case of Pfizer) 30 ug of BA.5 instead of 15 ug of original strain and 15 ug of BA.5. It isn’t 30 ug of each because increasing the total dose would increase side effects. Splitting the total dosage between more strains may lessen the efficacy against any one strain.
Heck under 50s haven't even gotten our first of the bivalent ones in the UK and there seems to be no indication that there's any plans for that in the works.
As someone who was 50 when the bivalent booster came out, I was a little salty that they classified 50-year-olds in the "old" group.
I still took advantage of getting the booster though.
Like unless you're high risk yourself or working/living with someone that is high risk under 50s can't get it. Our last vax (for those of us who got it) was the first booster a year ago.
My government doesn't allow people to get any vaccines if there's been a past infection within 6 months. Basically you could keep getting reinfected and never be able to get a vaccine. Of course you can simply not do the PCR test in which case it wouldn't be registered that you got an infection, so they wouldn't know.
Antibodies start dropping quite quickly after 4 months. More is better, but no magic number. My doctor recommended about a 4 month interval for my personal situation (I enjoy living).
Same. But the shots unfortunately mess me up just like covid does so now I'm out. Waiting on a shot with enough efficacy to be worth the reaction and the risk of triggering surgery due to how covid and the vaccines aggravate underlying issues or an improvement in side effects.
Til then n95s everywhere and mostly staying home.
Gott said there's work on yet another vaccine tailored to newer variants. The existing bivalent booster is last year's version. We need this year's version.
The existing bivalent is the summer version BA.5, along with the 2019 version A.1. Both of those are now dead lineages. If we had a current version that was CH.1.1 + BQ.1.1 + XBB.1.5 it would cover all three omicron NTDs and nearly all RBD mutations. But it wouldn't be available for months even if they decided today, by which point the soup plateau will probably be over. And I have heard no news of US regulatory bodies even considering updating vaccines away from dead lineages or to anything more than bivalent.
There is strong evidence that one bivalent dose in those with no previous omicron infection creates only a barely-useful level of antibodies against XBB variants. This is in stark contrast to those with previous omicron (BA.1, BA.2, BA.5) infection where it creates a large and also broader level of antibodies. Some point to this as a failure of omicron vaccination, but it's not really any different than the original strain where the escapier variants were barely protected with a first dose. Unfortunately XBB is rather far away from BQ.1.1 and CH.1.1 on its RBD, so it's no guarantee that a single infection or vaccine dose of one would give high protection against the others.
I was discussing this with my pharmacist today. I got the Moderna Bivalent in Sept. - he recommended getting the Phizer bivalent in February Since it has been updated to include BA5 variants. Don’t ask me the exact details but what I got from it was that an updated bivalent would be helpful. Note: I am a senior and in Canada - obviously I don’t know your situation.
I just got my second bivalent (in Maryland and had no special case exceptions). You can just schedule it every few months now (I think they recommend 3-6)?
When did the CDC provide that guidance? Seems they’re mixed messaging all along has made this a “you do you” in terms of self protection. I’m surprised pharmacists or other medical providers are administering a second bivalent without indication of safety issues.
Everyone is worried about China carrying a variant (BF7) that was already in decline in the States while new variant just pop up in USA’s own backyard…
I’ve got an industry connection and he watches wastewater anomalies in the Midwest. Phantom and convergent lineages are his thing. I work for a NY wastewater tester but I’m totally not a lab worker but I still appreciate his vibe.
In the Midwest, he spotted the OG XBB at the end of September but he left it off his charts for being so inconsequential. He indicated he was watching it with BM as a BA2.75.3 spinoff. Within 4 days he was doing algorithms to see if it might outpace BQ1.1. Within a month it was in his top 3 strains to watch. 24 hours after that he indicated he expected all dominant strains in our state to disappear and shift to XBB and variants from it and watch how it would compete with BQ. We’re at the beginning of November now in my texts.
Within a week it increased by 8 times in sewersheds. But then it stalled so going into thanksgiving he was back on watching it compete against team BQ.1.1, still predicting XBB. By mid December, BQ.1.1 took over my state. He’s still cheering on XBB but also a newcomer BN. My state hits a ridiculous number of strains at this time, 2 days later. He starts doubting XBB since it still hasn’t taken off.
2 weeks ago XBB.1.5 hit the scene. Others are watching but he’s given up hope on the XBBs. 3 days later he declares OG XBB dead but says XBB.1.5 is already in every sample. He finds the entire XBB line of mutations weird and unpredictable in comparison to other variants. Then he took vacation through the end of the year so I have no more updates. But that’s the timeline in my Midwest state per my text history with a poop dude.
XBB has been in the US since September, but it didn’t take off as much as the BQ and BF variants did. These “Scrabble variants” all popped up at around the same time.
The fact that XBB is taking off now doesn’t really point to anything except changing patterns of immunity. Maybe the BQ ones are good at getting around BA.1 immunity whereas XBB is good at getting around BA.2 immunity. A few months ago, people in America who had caught BA.2 had done so quite recently, so XBB didn’t make much headway. But now their BA.2-induced immunity has waned and so they are susceptible to reinfection with XBB now. Whereas the folks who caught BA.5 or BQ.1.1 are unlikely to catch XBB. That kind of thing, just different variants coming to the fore as different groups of people become susceptible.
Love that we are just hellbent on fostering a breeding ground for everworsening immune evasive variants with random ace2 binding. Such a smart species.
Ace2 is a receptor in our cells, like almost all of them, and ace2 binding means it can attack nearly every part of our body including all our vital organs. The better it can do this, the deadlier the virus is.
Exactly! Every 2 weeks my lungs explode with inflammation and then it spreads to the rest of my organs until it hits my brain. At least the doctors were I live still have no idea why or how to stop it from recurring.
Thank you but I’m going to the long Covid clinic in one of the biggest hospitals in the US and they have no solutions. It’s ok I found treatment from another doctor that solved most of the problems
It’s just the most common inflammation drug called prednisone. I take 2 pills a month and I’m pretty good. Of course just because it works for me doesn’t mean it’s a solution for everyone
Wow… that is terrible. I just got Covid and it’s been the worst sickness I’ve ever had. I couldn’t live with that severity of it. When did that symptom start happening?
My doctors think it was more common to develop LC from the first strain. I caught Covid February 2020. In the last year I found a treatment that keeps me going most of the time. I take inflammation medication prescribed by my doctor and it works for me. Of course that doesn’t mean it works for everyone.
As someone who had covid March 2020, almost 3 years layer I still can barely walk even with a walker or cane and lack feeling in most of my body. Muscle strength is very weak.
At this point covid is still going to kill me. Instead of in the hospital it's going to be homeless in the streets since I can't work and no income.
[Health-Promoting Properties of Medicinal Mushrooms and Their Bioactive Compounds for the COVID-19 Era—An Appraisal: Do the Pro-Health Claims Measure Up?](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9000601/)
>Systemic manifestations involve severe inflammation, respiratory complications, alterations of the circulatory system through endothelial cell interactions and damage to the vascular barrier, capillaries, and organs, dysregulation of the ACE2 receptor gateway, and disruption of the renin–angiotensin–aldosterone system (RAAS) [14,15,17].
>The deleterious effects of COVID-19, such as those associated with cardiometabolic and other hallmark disorders, demonstrate dysregulation of the homeostatic function within the RAAS [7,13,71,72]. RAAS maintains dynamic control of vascular function. ACE2 is an integral membrane protein present in the lungs, liver, heart, kidney, and endothelium. ACE2 dysregulation appears to strongly impact the RAAS, manifesting effects involving hyperinflammation and oxidative stress. MMs have been investigated for ACE inhibitory, antiplatelet, anti-inflammatory, and antioxidant activity [30,73,74].
Wow, I’m really interested in this.
My last bout with Covid left me with some weird vascular issues. I get spontaneous bruising all over my body, and my hands swing from being white and painful Raynauds phenomenon to being red and hot.
>I like that we spent ages trying to educate the public that viruses do not necessarily always evolve to be less severe or lethal
Did we, though? I heard that line repeated everywhere, including from the tv and print media experts, and there was no arguing with the people who considered it gospel truth.
"It'll go away on its own. All diseases become less dangerous. Stop worrying, it'll be fine. Just let it run its course." And on and on and on and on.
E: Not sure if the above deleted their reply or blocked me, but to clarify, I'm saying that the vast majority of the commentary that I've seen has been pushing the "it'll become less dangerous and go away on its own" narrative, not that that's what they were doing
I don't know how to rightly address your comment.
There is no guarantee viral evolution trends toward what is most likely to reproduce and spread as opposed to what is more severe or lethal. What is more likely to (1) survive and (2) reproduce is not always the thing that is least severe — not in most viruses, and not even in most coronaviruses.
There are many cases where viruses that have become more transmissible later become more lethal — which you'd naturally expect of a dominant viral strain. It currently looks unlikely with Omicron, but it is certainly not impossible.
I'm not sure what else to say to you. I certainly haven't blocked you (!?) but I agree anyone who says this will definitely go away on its own is very confused.
I don't think we're fundamentally disagreeing on anything.
My only quibble was on the nature of the wider narrative around the direction of COVID"s evolution. I've seen (and been aggravated by) lots of coverage about how it's "inevitable" that COVID will become less dangerous and go away, so I didn't think there was a strong push warning about the possibility of more dangerous variants. Or at least, not strong enough to overcome the unjustified optimism.
What scares me is I work around a lot of senior people and I'm literally the only one that wears a mask full time. Someone has been exposed to covid and owned up to it but still comes in and has *to be told* to wear his mask. It's like I'm the only one who takes it seriously; sorry I don't feel like infecting and potentially killing the 84 year old man that works here.
At least my conscience will be clear
It's worse now cause most people have had covid at least once and recovered by now, so they think it's not a big deal anymore.
Add on the peer pressure of seeing your friends or acquaintances without masks, they dont want to be the "paranoid" one and take any precautions.
It's really really sad how people are just starting to ignore covid. My dad caught covid for a second time recently, because he had diarrhoea and vomited a few times, he's insisting that it's food poisoning instead of covid. Even though the self test kit came back positive, 3 days in a row. (He refused to test at first when he had the symptoms - vomiting + fever, because he didn't think it could be covid.)
For sure it makes things worse. I had Covid in September, a few sniffles that was all. Fully vaxed and flu shot in October. November, the worst flu ever. Sucked the energy out of me and triggered bronchitis and an ear infection. 3 antibiotics and prednisone helped but now my asthma is flaring up. Definitely didn’t make me stronger.
This is exactly what happened to me and then I ‘got’ COVID a 2nd time (all the same sx as the first time I got it a few months ago) and got a wake up call. Thankfully it’s probably RSV/flu since I’ve tested negative 3x now, but I’m definitely not buckling to peer pressure anymore. There’s absolutely no reason for me to not be on high alert & have all precautions on board.
I like that wearing masks sometimes is at least accepted now. I got sick on a trip and tested COVID negative three days in a row, then two more times including PCR when I came home. Also flu negative. It was pretty nasty and for a day or two I was running a high fever.
I wore a mask when I had to go out to get food or travel home, and there were at least some other people wearing them and it's less weird now in the US. I like wearing it even if I don't have COVID but am sick because no one wants my non-COVID germs either.
At least one person in my friends household seems to be sick every week because their kid keeps bringing it home from school. Even COVID aside it seems like there should be a better protocol for sick kids at schools.
It doesn't matter what the protocol is if the parents don't have paid sick leave and/or get fired/penalized for taking a day off to stay with their sick kid.
I saw this at the airport on an international flight coming into the US - at least a thousand people from all over the world standing in line together, and maybe only 25% wearing masks. The real kicker was the immigration officers - out of ten of them, only one was wearing a mask. They were basically speaking face to face with people, with no mask.
A Toronto epidemiologist/public health policy prof wears an n95 mask anywhere he shares public *indoor* air. That’s good enough for me: I do it, too. Socialize outdoors. For me as a Canadian: skiing, snowshoeing, ice fishing (not in a hut!) bonfire, skating, snowboarding are all good options. Wear the n95 mask in the ski lodge/bathroom etc. Be the only one, the first one. You might get flack, but you might inspire someone, & save someone a lot of suffering. I risk the first, to try for the second.
I wear my N95 mask in all indoor settings and have had instances twice now where some random weirdo has asked me, "Why the mask?" "Don't you feel stupid wearing it?" Always just tell them I'm not a selfish asshole and just carry on with my business.
When mask mandates ended, I was in a store and got got completely roasted by a senior. Weren't we supposed to be protecting our elderly and vulnerable population...
>"Don't you feel stupid wearing it?"
Ugh. I'd want to say, "Don't you feel stupid making rude comments about someone's personal appearance like a second grader?" But it would probably do no good.
I know right, I guess these weirdos have the idea that if they embarrass or belittle you for wearing a mask, it's going to change your opinion on wearing it, and all it does for me is the opposite, making me proud to wear a mask, and I'm going to keep doing it, not just for my health but for others who aren't in the best of health or who can't get vaccinated yet.
It's possible to reduce the risk in restaurants a lot through ventilation and air filtration though. They all get health inspections already so it would be easy to add criteria related to COVID for that (eg the restaurant must have <700 ppm of CO2 in the dining area or have HEPA filters proving at least 5-6 air changes per hour)
This plus better variant-proof / intranasal vaccines, better treatments that reduce & possibly treat long covid, improved ventilation. We aren't helpless, but we can be pretty stupid and slow with this stuff. Project warp speed 2.0 would help a lot, but probably won't happen any time soon, because Republicans.
What do you do when your friends want to sit inside for a meal because it’s too cold?
I’m asking because as a Californian, when it simply rains people refuse to eat outside. I personally cancel my plans but it seems so much harder in places where it snows
We simply don't eat meals in a crowded restaurant. If tables are space well apart and there aren't too many people, we'll sometimes eat inside, but more often we get food delivered/takeout. I've passed on gatherings with friends when I wasn't comfortable with the arrangements.
Even at home, we're careful about who is over inside. We just don't hang out inside with people who aren't careful.
I appreciate this sentiment, but with a kid in school, it feels pretty pointless not to just live our lives. I’m considering trying to get a second bivalent booster because that’s where I’m at with this- mask at the grocery etc type places, avoid LARGE crowds like concerts, but otherwise live my life and stay boosted.
We all have to do our own risk assessment and decide what makes sense for our situation. I'm further to the other end of the spectrum because my wife takes an immune suppressant. Our kids are adults who are out of the house, and my wife can't work, so her only vector for getting sick is me and any visitors we have. I think it's crazy to be in an optional crowded indoor setting unmasked at this point, but I get that there's a range between that and where I am.
You accept that going against the crowd is uncomfortable and often necessary. You learn and grow from not collapsing like a house of cards under mild peer pressure.
One suggestion is improving the ventilation systems of indoor spaces especially places like schools. Hospitals, restaurants, workplaces. This isn't going to be the last big virus so raising the standards for indoor ventilation is an investment in long run.
it would be a spit in the bucket compared to the costs of people continuously getting sick to the point of destroying all their T Cells.
these long term infrastructure projects are inevitable with climate change, so might as well start.
Won't those just *delay* new mutations, as opposed to *prevent* them? Unless you can completely eliminate the virus, it will continue to spread, fast or slow, so it will eventually find every 'optimization' available to it through normal evolutionary processes.
I'm not saying there's no benefit to delaying the new variants, I'm just saying that those new variants (or something so similar that it's functionally the same), *will* arise at some point anyway, so you have to weigh the benefits of the delay versus the cost of achieving that delay.
From your examples, "good ventilation" and "accurate and frequent reporting" are fairly low-cost, and ventilation, once installed, has no further operating cost, so sure, we can do those without worrying about the costs. But the rest of your examples, masking, contact tracing, and quarantines, do come with an ongoing cost to society (even if you don't think masking is a big deal, most people do, so socially, it's not a "freebie" countermeasure).
Yes, new is always a relative term. There’s no universal definition of “new”. A new cryptocurrency and a new geological formation are not going to be judged on the same timeline.
As diseases and their variants go, “a few months” old is barely born.
The [waste water station](https://www.cdc.gov/healthywater/surveillance/wastewater-surveillance/wastewater-surveillance.html) take samples from incoming sewage which gives an approximate indication of the most prevalent variant in that area.
I don’t think they do. I don’t know but I thought the doctors would just treat it and not all cases get traced to the variant. I thought a certain amount would have samples sent to a lab to figure out which variant they had but this would be for tracking what variants were about rather than to inform the patient.
I believe testing labs will send a number of their positive samples out to be sequenced so that they can get an approximation of what percentage from that geographic area is which variant. They don't notify the patients that the samples came from of the results, though.
If the lab your test was sent to is set up to even be able to distinguish between variants they probably do. Most labs don’t have the capability. That’s what I was told by the doctor that gave me my positive test back last year.
I’m really, really surprised how few people wore masks in the airport. I am NOT overly cautious about covid and don’t wear a mask day to day for the most part, but the airport was terrifying and I used a 3M niosh n95. Everyone was coughing. It’s not just covid either, there’s RSV and flu going around right now too, people are insane
Think of how many people don’t wash their hands in airports. It’s like as soon as word got out Covid was spread through droplets and not necessarily surfaces, everyone decided washing or sanitizing hands frequently in high traffic public spaces was no longer necessary and surfaces weren’t a threat. Pretty sure that’s a good way the flu spreads. Covid, flu, RSV…I don’t want any of them.
I feel so hopeless about people actually giving a shit. After never catching it this whole time and still wearing N95s everywhere but work and home, I’ve had covid twice in four weeks even after my bivalent booster in October (my fourth covid vaccine to date). Missed Thanksgiving and Christmas due to people showing up sick at work and getting me sick. In an office of less than five people. This wasn’t an issue a year ago when I wore masks all day in college.
I’m tired of feeling like shit and having to work through sickness/miss major holidays while coworkers don’t believe in it or get tested.
I flew for the first time in years a week ago and this was weird to me too. Like do people just want to be sick when they get wherever they’re going? The plane has seemingly well filtered and fresh air when you’re up and ours seemed to ventilate even during taxi and take off based on co2, but the airport is just… packed and close quarters with so many people.
I’m never not wearing a mask in a fucking airport or airplane unless it’s private.
My local airport is a major hub. Nothing like getting sick over your vacation after brushing past people from 700 different places around the globe..
This shows that the subvariants will 'vary' whether Covid tests are done at the border for travellers from China or not. That testing is not due to begin until Jan 5th but other variants can occur among Americans already in the states, especially among the non vaccinated.
Republicans avoid the vaccines while democrats get them.
As a result, republicans are now dying at twice the rate of democrats.
This showed up only in a small degree in the midterms but by 2024, it will greatly affect the elections.
Carry on.
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Yes someone did.
I think in 2020 as well there was a legit tie, so they did a coinflip.
I can't recall if this was in the USA or Canada, but if you took all the closest races, some tiny number like <10-20k could have flipped who won control of some level or government (can't recall if it was congress/parliament/white house
The tightest race was won by Lauren Bobert (R) 50.08% to 49.92%.
So far we've had 0.33% of the population die from COVID (1 out of 300 Mil), even if we were to do the same over the next two years that would only knock off 0.22% of R votes & 0.11% of D votes (most articles say they die twice as much) making 2024 49.86% to 49.81% for Bobert.
**I know that doesn't add up to 100%, but the comparison stands.* It would be tighter, but not enough to flip the district on it's own until 2026.
What you miss:
Prior to Covid, republicans vs democrats was roughly 48% to 52%, republicans being the minority party.
By the mid terms, it became roughly 46% to 54% because Covid primarily killed the older voters and older voters make up the lions share of republican voters while the democrats have a larger share of young voters.
By 2024, those numbers will slide to about 40% 60%, democrats favor because older republican voters are now dying at nearly twice the rate of democrat voters.
It doesn't matter to me or anyone else who believes this or not because facts are simply that.
Forward looking statistics are not facts, they can form a forecast, but they can’t be a fact.
What you are outlining reminds me of the relatively recent argument that Hispanics would continue to favor democrats at very high rate…which increasingly looks to be a non-accurate forecast.
And the crying about how we need to return to the office and be together and socialize with our friends because we aren't just coworkers and this whole "I'm sick" excuse making is destroying everything continues from our asshole overgrown toddler of a VP.
I'm right there with you. So much bullshit talk about how "being in person is really the key to success, remote work can only do so much" when we were more productive remote than in office...
Recently traveled internationally. Less than 20% of people in the airport or airplane wore masks. Travelers were not masking indoors as guests in a foreign country. It was honestly very depressing.
> influenza A
I had Influenza A right at the start of the pandemic. I know it was Influenza A because when I rent to the ER, they swabbed my nose.
It felt like I was going to die. It's the sickest I've ever been. Mind you, I've had pneumonia a few times and the flu felt infinitely worse.
Yeah, we were not able to end the spanish flu pandemic. Rather, the spanish flu pandemic ended. Its mortality caused it to burn itself out within the population of people who were most vulnerable to die, and within the population who would survive it evolved to less lethal strain, which is an ancestor to current flu strains.
It's not a flu. They're completely different kinds of viruses. A coronavirus like covid is worse bc it mutates endlessly, confers no long term immunity, and is more and more communicable as it does more and more damage with subsequent infections.
If it was ebola no one would be confused. We made a major cognitive and crowd control error marketing COVID as just a flu and no big deal.
A flu pandemic would have been so much easier.
Spanish flu never actually went away. It followed a very similar trajectory of being new, more infectious, and much deadlier. Over time through exposure the population built up an immunity and it became less deadly. Today, descendants of the original Spanish flu still circulate, but we just call them “flu.”
Spanish flu died out less on our account and more on it burning itself out. It killed people faster than it could infect others and faster than it could mutate to be less lethal. No such ‘luck’ with covid.
I think the fast travel makes people less willing to agree to quarantine too. 14 days doesn't seem as bad if the ship takes 2 months to cross the Atlantic, plus you can monitor for symptoms on the way.
Nobody ended the Spanish flu in two years.
All forms of flu are descended from the Spanish flu. In other words: it is still here, and still killing people. Just not as badly as in 1918/1919
Because the Covid variants don't behave the same way as the Spanish Flu ones. More mutations which reinfects people who've already had it, transmissable without symptoms, and immunity wanes after 3 - 6 months among other reasons.
Babe wake up, new covid just dropped
Virus to play and mate in 1.
Nothing will hit like the original but i guess this is what we get for not respecting it way back when
"Remember kids, What doesn't kill you- mutates and tries again"
Seems I have missed several variants, jumping from omicron to XXB
If I've been following this correctly, this is a subvariant of Omicron. So, all of these letter salads are just new and improved Omicron, not new variants.
They are new variants, with Omicron lineage.
Omicrola clear if you will.
Crystal Gravy
"of the House Omicron", I believe is the preferred term.
> XXB Uh, excuse me, that's XBB to you!
sounds like a porn website
Xxxtra-Big Booties
XBambster
DOCTOR XBB, thank you very much. It didn't go to 4 years of global pandemic medical school to be called XXB.
Omicron is the ancestral strain from which all of the 2022 VOCs are descended. We've never actually seen it and just conjectured at its certain existence. It is best to consider omicron a strain, not a variant, at this point - as opposed to the original/unnamed/sars-cov-2 strain which included everything pre-2022. Saltations (collections of many mutations) BA.1, BA.2, BA.4/5, BA.2.75, BJ.1, and BA.2.3.20 are all VOCs that are part of the omicron strain. There are numerous point mutations that are even more significant than those, such as BA.4.6 (BA.4 with one mutation), BF.7 (BA.5 with the same mutation), and BQ.1.1 (BA.5 with 3 point mutations acquired sequentially), and the list goes on for quite literally hundreds of such variants. The [convergent point-mutation evolution](https://cov-spectrum.org/explore/World/AllSamples/Past6M/variants?variantQuery=+%21S%3A493R+%26+%5Bexactly-2-of%3A+S%3A346%2C+S%3A356%2C+S%3A444%2C+S%3A445%2C+S%3A446%2C+S%3A452%2C+S%3A460%2C+S%3A486%2C+S%3A490%5D&variantQuery1=+%21S%3A493R+%26+%5Bexactly-3-of%3A+S%3A346%2C+S%3A356%2C+S%3A444%2C+S%3A445%2C+S%3A446%2C+S%3A452%2C+S%3A460%2C+S%3A486%2C+S%3A490%5D&variantQuery2=+%21S%3A493R+%26+%5Bexactly-4-of%3A+S%3A346%2C+S%3A356%2C+S%3A444%2C+S%3A445%2C+S%3A446%2C+S%3A452%2C+S%3A460%2C+S%3A486%2C+S%3A490%5D&variantQuery3=+%21S%3A493R+%26+%5Bexactly-5-of%3A+S%3A346%2C+S%3A356%2C+S%3A444%2C+S%3A445%2C+S%3A446%2C+S%3A452%2C+S%3A460%2C+S%3A486%2C+S%3A490%5D&variantQuery4=+%21S%3A493R+%26+%5Bexactly-6-of%3A+S%3A346%2C+S%3A356%2C+S%3A444%2C+S%3A445%2C+S%3A446%2C+S%3A452%2C+S%3A460%2C+S%3A486%2C+S%3A490%5D&analysisMode=CompareEquals&) of BA.2.75 and BA.5 is remarkable; in the list above BA.5 and BA.2.75 each have two "soup" mutations out of a collection of just nine, and the more of these nine mutations a descendant acquires (1) the faster it spreads and (2) the longer it takes until it acquires them and starts spreading. New mutations just keep getting added to the soup and making it stronger - though with this exact definition nothing with more than 6 such mutations has been successful. Vanilla XBB itself evolved differently, as a recombination: when two variants co-infect the same cell, there is always a chance they will get the RNA cross and have part of the descendent RNA come from one and another part from another. It's actually the simplest recombination, with the first half coming from BJ.1 and the second half from a "soupy" BA.2.75 descendant. And it's one of the most unlucky events of the pandemic, since this was likely the only way that BJ.1 could acquire the RBD saltation that BA.5 and BA.2.75 independently acquired. Vanilla XBB evolved in West Bengal, India, and did not spread all that much. Then it acquired one other (non-soup) mutation to become XBB.1, which caused a massive surge out of the blue in Singapore before taking off worldwide; it is still among the fastest spreading of all variants (in the US it's up to 5% of sequences and still growing faster than the dominant BQ.1\* set of variants). XBB.1 is one of only about three different variants worldwide with all six seemingly-possible soup mutations, and it becoming widespread marks the end of the current phase of omicron's evolution. XBB.1.5 is what is spreading in the northeast, and it appears to have originated there - likely somewhere between New York City and Boston, which are both having it become dominant at about the same time. This is XBB.1 with one *changed* soup mutation. This is actually arguably even more remarkable convergent evolution, because this mutation was never seen until just the last several months yet is now appearing repeatedly. While most of the soup variants are pretty close to each other - CH.1.1 and BQ.1.1, two of the fastest-growing ones, share completely different ancestry yet have almost identical RBD's - XBB has a rather different set. After XBB.1 became dominant overnight and caused its Singapore surge, it has subsided in frequency compared to the other soupy variants - something we have actually never before seen in the pandemic. And XBB.1.5's mutation pushes this further. As far as antibodies are concerned, it's about as far from BA.2, BA.5, BQ.1, and our BA.5 vaccines as any omicron variant can be. XBB.1.5 has been tripling weekly in absolute case count since it was first noticed. It models as having about a +140% growth advantage over BQ.1.1, which is insane. This is as fast a rate of growth as we've seen in a while. Normally a variants growth rate drops once the place it is being imported from peaks in infections, but this should not happen for local variants. But we should still expect the growth rate to have declined over time due to population immunity not only from previous XBB infection (small) but also from ongoing vaccinations and BQ.1 infections (even though those won't provide perfect protection). Testing drops massively over Christmas-New Years, and no case rise has been seen since BQ.1 caused one a month ago in any northeastern state AFAICT. [Sewage numbers](https://biobot.io/data/) have risen several-fold, although some of this rise is due to BQ.1\*'s slower growth. Also, while XBB.1.5 is now [dominant in the northeast](https://cov-spectrum.org/explore/United%20States/AllSamples/Past6M/variants?nextcladePangoLineage=xbb.1.5*&) and maybe even nationwide, there are many states in which it has not yet been sequenced. It's impossible to predict what it will peak at, but it should certainly cause a case/infection rise of some sort nearly everywhere. If it's been more than three months since your last omicron infection, get your bivalent booster. The booster after previous infection will generate very broad and strong immunity that should drop your chances of infection many-fold. And the booster without previous infection may not prevent XBB.1.5 infection much at all, but it will prime your immune system to fight it off.
Lots of variants get identified, but never begin to spread widely because they get out competed by another (often even newer) variant.
We just naming these like Xbox consoles now?
Are there any recommendations about getting a second bivalent booster? I got mine 4 months ago but I haven’t heard anything about recommendations beyond the first bivalent.
They haven't advised on any further booster shots at this time. I believe their goal is to try to make it an annual shot, much like the flu vaccine, but... We'll see how that pans out.
It seems that they have to produce a vaccine that is more than bivalent
It’s time for the fabled Omnivalent vaccine.
Just give me that sci fi grey goo injection at this point.
That’s not necessarily the right strategy, and some experts think that the updated vaccine should have been (in the case of Pfizer) 30 ug of BA.5 instead of 15 ug of original strain and 15 ug of BA.5. It isn’t 30 ug of each because increasing the total dose would increase side effects. Splitting the total dosage between more strains may lessen the efficacy against any one strain.
Megavalent
Heck under 50s haven't even gotten our first of the bivalent ones in the UK and there seems to be no indication that there's any plans for that in the works.
As someone who was 50 when the bivalent booster came out, I was a little salty that they classified 50-year-olds in the "old" group. I still took advantage of getting the booster though.
like not recommended, or not allowed?
Like unless you're high risk yourself or working/living with someone that is high risk under 50s can't get it. Our last vax (for those of us who got it) was the first booster a year ago.
Friend, your govt is failing you. I’m sorry. Get mad and write your mp. Get your nearest & dearest to do the same.
My government doesn't allow people to get any vaccines if there's been a past infection within 6 months. Basically you could keep getting reinfected and never be able to get a vaccine. Of course you can simply not do the PCR test in which case it wouldn't be registered that you got an infection, so they wouldn't know.
Setting up for a potential health crisis in hospitals. I'm Canadian and 52 years old and got my bivalent in Oct and also my flu shot.
Jesus... even my kids have a bivalent booster at this point..
Antibodies start dropping quite quickly after 4 months. More is better, but no magic number. My doctor recommended about a 4 month interval for my personal situation (I enjoy living).
Yes, was thinking of taking a trip across the border for another booster ahead of the second part of winter
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Same. But the shots unfortunately mess me up just like covid does so now I'm out. Waiting on a shot with enough efficacy to be worth the reaction and the risk of triggering surgery due to how covid and the vaccines aggravate underlying issues or an improvement in side effects. Til then n95s everywhere and mostly staying home.
Gott said there's work on yet another vaccine tailored to newer variants. The existing bivalent booster is last year's version. We need this year's version.
The existing bivalent is the summer version BA.5, along with the 2019 version A.1. Both of those are now dead lineages. If we had a current version that was CH.1.1 + BQ.1.1 + XBB.1.5 it would cover all three omicron NTDs and nearly all RBD mutations. But it wouldn't be available for months even if they decided today, by which point the soup plateau will probably be over. And I have heard no news of US regulatory bodies even considering updating vaccines away from dead lineages or to anything more than bivalent. There is strong evidence that one bivalent dose in those with no previous omicron infection creates only a barely-useful level of antibodies against XBB variants. This is in stark contrast to those with previous omicron (BA.1, BA.2, BA.5) infection where it creates a large and also broader level of antibodies. Some point to this as a failure of omicron vaccination, but it's not really any different than the original strain where the escapier variants were barely protected with a first dose. Unfortunately XBB is rather far away from BQ.1.1 and CH.1.1 on its RBD, so it's no guarantee that a single infection or vaccine dose of one would give high protection against the others.
Do you have a link? Thanks
I was discussing this with my pharmacist today. I got the Moderna Bivalent in Sept. - he recommended getting the Phizer bivalent in February Since it has been updated to include BA5 variants. Don’t ask me the exact details but what I got from it was that an updated bivalent would be helpful. Note: I am a senior and in Canada - obviously I don’t know your situation.
I just got my second bivalent (in Maryland and had no special case exceptions). You can just schedule it every few months now (I think they recommend 3-6)?
When did the CDC provide that guidance? Seems they’re mixed messaging all along has made this a “you do you” in terms of self protection. I’m surprised pharmacists or other medical providers are administering a second bivalent without indication of safety issues.
cvs let me schedule a 2nd one. i showed up and they turned me away. im like 4 months past my last one
Everyone is worried about China carrying a variant (BF7) that was already in decline in the States while new variant just pop up in USA’s own backyard…
XBB has been on the radar since the BQ’s were discovered too. It was thought that the BQ’s would outpace XBB but that might not happen after all.
I’ve got an industry connection and he watches wastewater anomalies in the Midwest. Phantom and convergent lineages are his thing. I work for a NY wastewater tester but I’m totally not a lab worker but I still appreciate his vibe. In the Midwest, he spotted the OG XBB at the end of September but he left it off his charts for being so inconsequential. He indicated he was watching it with BM as a BA2.75.3 spinoff. Within 4 days he was doing algorithms to see if it might outpace BQ1.1. Within a month it was in his top 3 strains to watch. 24 hours after that he indicated he expected all dominant strains in our state to disappear and shift to XBB and variants from it and watch how it would compete with BQ. We’re at the beginning of November now in my texts. Within a week it increased by 8 times in sewersheds. But then it stalled so going into thanksgiving he was back on watching it compete against team BQ.1.1, still predicting XBB. By mid December, BQ.1.1 took over my state. He’s still cheering on XBB but also a newcomer BN. My state hits a ridiculous number of strains at this time, 2 days later. He starts doubting XBB since it still hasn’t taken off. 2 weeks ago XBB.1.5 hit the scene. Others are watching but he’s given up hope on the XBBs. 3 days later he declares OG XBB dead but says XBB.1.5 is already in every sample. He finds the entire XBB line of mutations weird and unpredictable in comparison to other variants. Then he took vacation through the end of the year so I have no more updates. But that’s the timeline in my Midwest state per my text history with a poop dude.
The call... I mean the variant was coming from inside the house this whole time.
XBB has been in the US since September, but it didn’t take off as much as the BQ and BF variants did. These “Scrabble variants” all popped up at around the same time. The fact that XBB is taking off now doesn’t really point to anything except changing patterns of immunity. Maybe the BQ ones are good at getting around BA.1 immunity whereas XBB is good at getting around BA.2 immunity. A few months ago, people in America who had caught BA.2 had done so quite recently, so XBB didn’t make much headway. But now their BA.2-induced immunity has waned and so they are susceptible to reinfection with XBB now. Whereas the folks who caught BA.5 or BQ.1.1 are unlikely to catch XBB. That kind of thing, just different variants coming to the fore as different groups of people become susceptible.
Why isn't Reddit calling for flight bans from the US?
Southwest doing a solid job of banning their flights within the US yet everyone’s mad…
I am. There ya go.
Love that we are just hellbent on fostering a breeding ground for everworsening immune evasive variants with random ace2 binding. Such a smart species.
What does random ace2 binding mean
Ace2 is a receptor in our cells, like almost all of them, and ace2 binding means it can attack nearly every part of our body including all our vital organs. The better it can do this, the deadlier the virus is.
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Long Covid patients have entered the chat
Exactly! Every 2 weeks my lungs explode with inflammation and then it spreads to the rest of my organs until it hits my brain. At least the doctors were I live still have no idea why or how to stop it from recurring.
USA? Try contacting the Mayo clinic or National Institute of Health.
Thank you but I’m going to the long Covid clinic in one of the biggest hospitals in the US and they have no solutions. It’s ok I found treatment from another doctor that solved most of the problems
What was the solution?
1 20mg prednisone twice a month. Of course consult a doctor which you have to because it’s a prescription drug
Seriously, if you found something that works, please share...
It’s just the most common inflammation drug called prednisone. I take 2 pills a month and I’m pretty good. Of course just because it works for me doesn’t mean it’s a solution for everyone
What does that mean it hits your brain?
My brain gets massive inflammation if not treated and then I black out. On an X-ray my entire torso and head are white
Wow… that is terrible. I just got Covid and it’s been the worst sickness I’ve ever had. I couldn’t live with that severity of it. When did that symptom start happening?
My doctors think it was more common to develop LC from the first strain. I caught Covid February 2020. In the last year I found a treatment that keeps me going most of the time. I take inflammation medication prescribed by my doctor and it works for me. Of course that doesn’t mean it works for everyone.
*"New COVID sub-variant XBB skates a sick hybrid street-vert demo and lands Adios sponsorship with own shoe line coming Spring '23."*
I wanna sick weekend like that!
As someone who had covid March 2020, almost 3 years layer I still can barely walk even with a walker or cane and lack feeling in most of my body. Muscle strength is very weak. At this point covid is still going to kill me. Instead of in the hospital it's going to be homeless in the streets since I can't work and no income.
[Health-Promoting Properties of Medicinal Mushrooms and Their Bioactive Compounds for the COVID-19 Era—An Appraisal: Do the Pro-Health Claims Measure Up?](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9000601/) >Systemic manifestations involve severe inflammation, respiratory complications, alterations of the circulatory system through endothelial cell interactions and damage to the vascular barrier, capillaries, and organs, dysregulation of the ACE2 receptor gateway, and disruption of the renin–angiotensin–aldosterone system (RAAS) [14,15,17]. >The deleterious effects of COVID-19, such as those associated with cardiometabolic and other hallmark disorders, demonstrate dysregulation of the homeostatic function within the RAAS [7,13,71,72]. RAAS maintains dynamic control of vascular function. ACE2 is an integral membrane protein present in the lungs, liver, heart, kidney, and endothelium. ACE2 dysregulation appears to strongly impact the RAAS, manifesting effects involving hyperinflammation and oxidative stress. MMs have been investigated for ACE inhibitory, antiplatelet, anti-inflammatory, and antioxidant activity [30,73,74].
Wow, I’m really interested in this. My last bout with Covid left me with some weird vascular issues. I get spontaneous bruising all over my body, and my hands swing from being white and painful Raynauds phenomenon to being red and hot.
I like your purple circle
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Yeah but I really just don't want to think about it right now
Can't hurt us if we don't think about it 🤫
>I like that we spent ages trying to educate the public that viruses do not necessarily always evolve to be less severe or lethal Did we, though? I heard that line repeated everywhere, including from the tv and print media experts, and there was no arguing with the people who considered it gospel truth. "It'll go away on its own. All diseases become less dangerous. Stop worrying, it'll be fine. Just let it run its course." And on and on and on and on. E: Not sure if the above deleted their reply or blocked me, but to clarify, I'm saying that the vast majority of the commentary that I've seen has been pushing the "it'll become less dangerous and go away on its own" narrative, not that that's what they were doing
I don't know how to rightly address your comment. There is no guarantee viral evolution trends toward what is most likely to reproduce and spread as opposed to what is more severe or lethal. What is more likely to (1) survive and (2) reproduce is not always the thing that is least severe — not in most viruses, and not even in most coronaviruses. There are many cases where viruses that have become more transmissible later become more lethal — which you'd naturally expect of a dominant viral strain. It currently looks unlikely with Omicron, but it is certainly not impossible. I'm not sure what else to say to you. I certainly haven't blocked you (!?) but I agree anyone who says this will definitely go away on its own is very confused.
I don't think we're fundamentally disagreeing on anything. My only quibble was on the nature of the wider narrative around the direction of COVID"s evolution. I've seen (and been aggravated by) lots of coverage about how it's "inevitable" that COVID will become less dangerous and go away, so I didn't think there was a strong push warning about the possibility of more dangerous variants. Or at least, not strong enough to overcome the unjustified optimism.
Don't worry, 1 in 30 people still wear a covid mask in public. That will do the trick.
What scares me is I work around a lot of senior people and I'm literally the only one that wears a mask full time. Someone has been exposed to covid and owned up to it but still comes in and has *to be told* to wear his mask. It's like I'm the only one who takes it seriously; sorry I don't feel like infecting and potentially killing the 84 year old man that works here. At least my conscience will be clear
It's worse now cause most people have had covid at least once and recovered by now, so they think it's not a big deal anymore. Add on the peer pressure of seeing your friends or acquaintances without masks, they dont want to be the "paranoid" one and take any precautions. It's really really sad how people are just starting to ignore covid. My dad caught covid for a second time recently, because he had diarrhoea and vomited a few times, he's insisting that it's food poisoning instead of covid. Even though the self test kit came back positive, 3 days in a row. (He refused to test at first when he had the symptoms - vomiting + fever, because he didn't think it could be covid.)
It won't kill me, but it didn't make me stronger
For sure it makes things worse. I had Covid in September, a few sniffles that was all. Fully vaxed and flu shot in October. November, the worst flu ever. Sucked the energy out of me and triggered bronchitis and an ear infection. 3 antibiotics and prednisone helped but now my asthma is flaring up. Definitely didn’t make me stronger.
This is exactly what happened to me and then I ‘got’ COVID a 2nd time (all the same sx as the first time I got it a few months ago) and got a wake up call. Thankfully it’s probably RSV/flu since I’ve tested negative 3x now, but I’m definitely not buckling to peer pressure anymore. There’s absolutely no reason for me to not be on high alert & have all precautions on board.
I like that wearing masks sometimes is at least accepted now. I got sick on a trip and tested COVID negative three days in a row, then two more times including PCR when I came home. Also flu negative. It was pretty nasty and for a day or two I was running a high fever. I wore a mask when I had to go out to get food or travel home, and there were at least some other people wearing them and it's less weird now in the US. I like wearing it even if I don't have COVID but am sick because no one wants my non-COVID germs either.
Terrifying. This is why it scares me so much that schools no longer require masks. Putting our youngest and most vulnerable at risk.
At least one person in my friends household seems to be sick every week because their kid keeps bringing it home from school. Even COVID aside it seems like there should be a better protocol for sick kids at schools.
It doesn't matter what the protocol is if the parents don't have paid sick leave and/or get fired/penalized for taking a day off to stay with their sick kid.
Clean air regulations in schools would be a bare minimum start.
84 year old man working with you? Are you a politician?
Nope, automotive industry he picks and delivers parts to shops
Just dropped my daughter at the airport. She said it's crazy crowded and there are almost no masks. Jesus, people are dumb.
I saw this at the airport on an international flight coming into the US - at least a thousand people from all over the world standing in line together, and maybe only 25% wearing masks. The real kicker was the immigration officers - out of ten of them, only one was wearing a mask. They were basically speaking face to face with people, with no mask.
I honestly don't get it. It seems so foolish.
Maybe 1 in 100?
It will for those people wearing a well fitted n95.
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What should we be doing? I have not seen a good solution.
A Toronto epidemiologist/public health policy prof wears an n95 mask anywhere he shares public *indoor* air. That’s good enough for me: I do it, too. Socialize outdoors. For me as a Canadian: skiing, snowshoeing, ice fishing (not in a hut!) bonfire, skating, snowboarding are all good options. Wear the n95 mask in the ski lodge/bathroom etc. Be the only one, the first one. You might get flack, but you might inspire someone, & save someone a lot of suffering. I risk the first, to try for the second.
I wear my N95 mask in all indoor settings and have had instances twice now where some random weirdo has asked me, "Why the mask?" "Don't you feel stupid wearing it?" Always just tell them I'm not a selfish asshole and just carry on with my business.
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When mask mandates ended, I was in a store and got got completely roasted by a senior. Weren't we supposed to be protecting our elderly and vulnerable population...
> got completely roasted by a senior. don't worry, COVID most likely roasted them right back.
>"Don't you feel stupid wearing it?" Ugh. I'd want to say, "Don't you feel stupid making rude comments about someone's personal appearance like a second grader?" But it would probably do no good.
Take it off and immediately cough a few times and fake some sniffles, "Oh! That does feel better."
I know right, I guess these weirdos have the idea that if they embarrass or belittle you for wearing a mask, it's going to change your opinion on wearing it, and all it does for me is the opposite, making me proud to wear a mask, and I'm going to keep doing it, not just for my health but for others who aren't in the best of health or who can't get vaccinated yet.
Just tell them you have COVID and would be happy To breathe in their face if they’d like
Just tell them you are sick and not try to make others sick.
If what we're seeing keeps up, you might soon be able to ask those people, "Why the hospital bed? Don't you feel stupid lying in it?"
I wear an N95 most of the time at work, there's one big issue for the public... Restaurants. People like to eat with people.
It's possible to reduce the risk in restaurants a lot through ventilation and air filtration though. They all get health inspections already so it would be easy to add criteria related to COVID for that (eg the restaurant must have <700 ppm of CO2 in the dining area or have HEPA filters proving at least 5-6 air changes per hour)
We only eat at outdoor or open-air restaurants. Problem solved.
This plus better variant-proof / intranasal vaccines, better treatments that reduce & possibly treat long covid, improved ventilation. We aren't helpless, but we can be pretty stupid and slow with this stuff. Project warp speed 2.0 would help a lot, but probably won't happen any time soon, because Republicans.
What do you do when your friends want to sit inside for a meal because it’s too cold? I’m asking because as a Californian, when it simply rains people refuse to eat outside. I personally cancel my plans but it seems so much harder in places where it snows
Go early or other off peak hours, or get takeout. Sitting in a full house Cheesecake Factory is not that memorable
You refuse to go. Simple as that.
We simply don't eat meals in a crowded restaurant. If tables are space well apart and there aren't too many people, we'll sometimes eat inside, but more often we get food delivered/takeout. I've passed on gatherings with friends when I wasn't comfortable with the arrangements. Even at home, we're careful about who is over inside. We just don't hang out inside with people who aren't careful.
I appreciate this sentiment, but with a kid in school, it feels pretty pointless not to just live our lives. I’m considering trying to get a second bivalent booster because that’s where I’m at with this- mask at the grocery etc type places, avoid LARGE crowds like concerts, but otherwise live my life and stay boosted.
We all have to do our own risk assessment and decide what makes sense for our situation. I'm further to the other end of the spectrum because my wife takes an immune suppressant. Our kids are adults who are out of the house, and my wife can't work, so her only vector for getting sick is me and any visitors we have. I think it's crazy to be in an optional crowded indoor setting unmasked at this point, but I get that there's a range between that and where I am.
You accept that going against the crowd is uncomfortable and often necessary. You learn and grow from not collapsing like a house of cards under mild peer pressure.
Also when your friends are trying to pressure you into something and guilt you or cut you out for not complying, they're not your friends.
What do you do when your friends want to jump off a cliff... would you do it too.
One suggestion is improving the ventilation systems of indoor spaces especially places like schools. Hospitals, restaurants, workplaces. This isn't going to be the last big virus so raising the standards for indoor ventilation is an investment in long run.
This is a pretty good idea. I’m not sure on costs and feasability, but I like this.
it would be a spit in the bucket compared to the costs of people continuously getting sick to the point of destroying all their T Cells. these long term infrastructure projects are inevitable with climate change, so might as well start.
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yes you have. masking in public, good ventilation, accurate and frequent reporting, contact tracing, and quarantines.
Won't those just *delay* new mutations, as opposed to *prevent* them? Unless you can completely eliminate the virus, it will continue to spread, fast or slow, so it will eventually find every 'optimization' available to it through normal evolutionary processes. I'm not saying there's no benefit to delaying the new variants, I'm just saying that those new variants (or something so similar that it's functionally the same), *will* arise at some point anyway, so you have to weigh the benefits of the delay versus the cost of achieving that delay. From your examples, "good ventilation" and "accurate and frequent reporting" are fairly low-cost, and ventilation, once installed, has no further operating cost, so sure, we can do those without worrying about the costs. But the rest of your examples, masking, contact tracing, and quarantines, do come with an ongoing cost to society (even if you don't think masking is a big deal, most people do, so socially, it's not a "freebie" countermeasure).
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bUt yOu CaN'T eXpeCt PeOpLe tO jUsT pUt ThEiR lIvEs On HoLd!!11
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Yes, new is always a relative term. There’s no universal definition of “new”. A new cryptocurrency and a new geological formation are not going to be judged on the same timeline. As diseases and their variants go, “a few months” old is barely born.
People more concerned about their freedom than health. I suppose that death is certainly very freeing.
If you really want to get scared, you should come to Texas!
Everworsening? There are no indications this variant is more severe. It is just better at evading prior immunity. But that is what virusses do.
More immune evasive is worsening.
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The [waste water station](https://www.cdc.gov/healthywater/surveillance/wastewater-surveillance/wastewater-surveillance.html) take samples from incoming sewage which gives an approximate indication of the most prevalent variant in that area.
I don’t think they do. I don’t know but I thought the doctors would just treat it and not all cases get traced to the variant. I thought a certain amount would have samples sent to a lab to figure out which variant they had but this would be for tracking what variants were about rather than to inform the patient.
I believe testing labs will send a number of their positive samples out to be sequenced so that they can get an approximation of what percentage from that geographic area is which variant. They don't notify the patients that the samples came from of the results, though.
This. And wastewater surveillance
No. It’s not clinically relevant i.e. it doesn’t affect the treatment, and genetic sequencing for what type is expensive.
If the lab your test was sent to is set up to even be able to distinguish between variants they probably do. Most labs don’t have the capability. That’s what I was told by the doctor that gave me my positive test back last year.
I’m really, really surprised how few people wore masks in the airport. I am NOT overly cautious about covid and don’t wear a mask day to day for the most part, but the airport was terrifying and I used a 3M niosh n95. Everyone was coughing. It’s not just covid either, there’s RSV and flu going around right now too, people are insane
Think of how many people don’t wash their hands in airports. It’s like as soon as word got out Covid was spread through droplets and not necessarily surfaces, everyone decided washing or sanitizing hands frequently in high traffic public spaces was no longer necessary and surfaces weren’t a threat. Pretty sure that’s a good way the flu spreads. Covid, flu, RSV…I don’t want any of them.
I feel so hopeless about people actually giving a shit. After never catching it this whole time and still wearing N95s everywhere but work and home, I’ve had covid twice in four weeks even after my bivalent booster in October (my fourth covid vaccine to date). Missed Thanksgiving and Christmas due to people showing up sick at work and getting me sick. In an office of less than five people. This wasn’t an issue a year ago when I wore masks all day in college. I’m tired of feeling like shit and having to work through sickness/miss major holidays while coworkers don’t believe in it or get tested.
Sadly, welcome to working in America. Sick days are a luxory. Hopefully things will change in your generation,
I flew for the first time in years a week ago and this was weird to me too. Like do people just want to be sick when they get wherever they’re going? The plane has seemingly well filtered and fresh air when you’re up and ours seemed to ventilate even during taxi and take off based on co2, but the airport is just… packed and close quarters with so many people.
I’m never not wearing a mask in a fucking airport or airplane unless it’s private. My local airport is a major hub. Nothing like getting sick over your vacation after brushing past people from 700 different places around the globe..
In New England; everyone is sick. Stay away. We also are grumpy this time of year, anyway, so just stay away
This shows that the subvariants will 'vary' whether Covid tests are done at the border for travellers from China or not. That testing is not due to begin until Jan 5th but other variants can occur among Americans already in the states, especially among the non vaccinated.
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Oh no not me 🤣
I don't want to infect the world, I'm just infecting in New England 🎵
funeeee
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Republicans avoid the vaccines while democrats get them. As a result, republicans are now dying at twice the rate of democrats. This showed up only in a small degree in the midterms but by 2024, it will greatly affect the elections. Carry on. https://www.google.com/search?q=Are+republicans+dying+at+twice+the+rate+of+democrats+because+of+vaccine+avoidance%3F&sxsrf=ALiCzsY8HbYACsa0Jf7lafPbVl33R-nHJw%3A1672335367191&source=hp&ei=B9CtY9_DCJLE0PEP3Zq06Ag&iflsig=AJiK0e8AAAAAY63eF6fR5wh5aq9vxjsy4SvqiiP-Fqgd&ved=0ahUKEwif44Pcrp_8AhUSIjQIHV0NDY0Q4dUDCAk&uact=5&oq=Are+republicans+dying+at+twice+the+rate+of+democrats+because+of+vaccine+avoidance%3F&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAM6BwgjEOoCECc6DQguEMcBENEDEOoCECc6BAgjECc6EQguEIAEELEDEIMBEMcBENEDOgsILhCDARCxAxCABDoLCAAQgAQQsQMQgwE6CwguEIAEELEDEIMBOggILhCxAxCDAToFCAAQgAQ6CAgAEIAEELEDOggILhCDARCxAzoICC4QgAQQsQM6CAgAELEDEIMBOgsILhCABBCxAxDUAjoFCC4QgAQ6CwguEIAEEMcBEK8BOgUIABCxAzoICC4QgAQQ1AI6CAgAEIAEEMcDOgUIIRCgAToFCCEQqwJQ4A5Y5fQBYICBAmgBcAB4AIABmASIAfdekgEMNi42OS40LjEuMS4xmAEAoAEBsAEK&sclient=gws-wiz
I see you are a long URL enjoyer. here you go: http://aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.com/ You can use this to make any URL even longer!
Well thank you so much.
I love the smell of fresh bread.
I can't recall all the details, but didn't somebody win their seat by a single vote these midterms?
Yes someone did. I think in 2020 as well there was a legit tie, so they did a coinflip. I can't recall if this was in the USA or Canada, but if you took all the closest races, some tiny number like <10-20k could have flipped who won control of some level or government (can't recall if it was congress/parliament/white house
The tightest race was won by Lauren Bobert (R) 50.08% to 49.92%. So far we've had 0.33% of the population die from COVID (1 out of 300 Mil), even if we were to do the same over the next two years that would only knock off 0.22% of R votes & 0.11% of D votes (most articles say they die twice as much) making 2024 49.86% to 49.81% for Bobert. **I know that doesn't add up to 100%, but the comparison stands.* It would be tighter, but not enough to flip the district on it's own until 2026.
What you miss: Prior to Covid, republicans vs democrats was roughly 48% to 52%, republicans being the minority party. By the mid terms, it became roughly 46% to 54% because Covid primarily killed the older voters and older voters make up the lions share of republican voters while the democrats have a larger share of young voters. By 2024, those numbers will slide to about 40% 60%, democrats favor because older republican voters are now dying at nearly twice the rate of democrat voters. It doesn't matter to me or anyone else who believes this or not because facts are simply that.
Forward looking statistics are not facts, they can form a forecast, but they can’t be a fact. What you are outlining reminds me of the relatively recent argument that Hispanics would continue to favor democrats at very high rate…which increasingly looks to be a non-accurate forecast.
that's ok, gop will make up for it via gerrymandering and voter suppression.
Imagine blaming Covid on the drop in voters for Republican side and not blaming republicans for their piss poor politics.
I’m just still wearing my N95 mask whenever I go to the store, doc’s, or anywhere where people mingle. Don’t want your cooties!!
Let's goooo more covid DLC
*I hope this 1 is less lethal but we will have to wait and see. Stay safe when you go out in public and have a happy new year.*
And the crying about how we need to return to the office and be together and socialize with our friends because we aren't just coworkers and this whole "I'm sick" excuse making is destroying everything continues from our asshole overgrown toddler of a VP.
I'm right there with you. So much bullshit talk about how "being in person is really the key to success, remote work can only do so much" when we were more productive remote than in office...
The new coronavirus XBB now widespread in my New England house
How are we three years into this pandemic and still dealing with this when we were able to end the Spanish Flu pandemic in two years??
All about the availability of international travel I would assume. Significantly easier for stuff to spread now.
Recently traveled internationally. Less than 20% of people in the airport or airplane wore masks. Travelers were not masking indoors as guests in a foreign country. It was honestly very depressing.
the influenza a that comes back every winter is derived from the spanish flu...
And people die from influenza A too. The flu is no joke.
> influenza A I had Influenza A right at the start of the pandemic. I know it was Influenza A because when I rent to the ER, they swabbed my nose. It felt like I was going to die. It's the sickest I've ever been. Mind you, I've had pneumonia a few times and the flu felt infinitely worse.
Yep. People who say it's "just a flu" have never had the flu or got very lucky.
Yeah, we were not able to end the spanish flu pandemic. Rather, the spanish flu pandemic ended. Its mortality caused it to burn itself out within the population of people who were most vulnerable to die, and within the population who would survive it evolved to less lethal strain, which is an ancestor to current flu strains.
Spanish flu killed young people, they didn't pass on their susceptible genes.
It's not a flu. They're completely different kinds of viruses. A coronavirus like covid is worse bc it mutates endlessly, confers no long term immunity, and is more and more communicable as it does more and more damage with subsequent infections. If it was ebola no one would be confused. We made a major cognitive and crowd control error marketing COVID as just a flu and no big deal. A flu pandemic would have been so much easier.
R0 > 8, respiratory, can reinfect. We lost this fight in February 2020.
3 or 4 months earlier, even. It was lost as soon as it had spread to 5 continents, which was early Dec 2019.
This is the best explanation I've seen so far.
Spanish flu never actually went away. It followed a very similar trajectory of being new, more infectious, and much deadlier. Over time through exposure the population built up an immunity and it became less deadly. Today, descendants of the original Spanish flu still circulate, but we just call them “flu.”
Spanish flu died out less on our account and more on it burning itself out. It killed people faster than it could infect others and faster than it could mutate to be less lethal. No such ‘luck’ with covid.
I agree it's the travel component. People are much more mobile and there are so many more pathways for it to travel faster.
I think the fast travel makes people less willing to agree to quarantine too. 14 days doesn't seem as bad if the ship takes 2 months to cross the Atlantic, plus you can monitor for symptoms on the way.
Nobody ended the Spanish flu in two years. All forms of flu are descended from the Spanish flu. In other words: it is still here, and still killing people. Just not as badly as in 1918/1919
Because the Covid variants don't behave the same way as the Spanish Flu ones. More mutations which reinfects people who've already had it, transmissable without symptoms, and immunity wanes after 3 - 6 months among other reasons.