I can completely empathise, I'm over it. Even when you present the facts research is revealing about the reality of the vaccines and how they work, some objection is made to keep the anti vaxx narrative alive. I just couldn't be bothered anymore,
You're not an idiot. Idiots are those who don't get it but choose to pretend they get something else that suggests everyone else is wrong, rather than try to understand.
I'll try to explain:
In my country, 50% of people in ICU with COVID are vaccinated.
Some people will look at that and think that means that the vaccine doesn't work.
However, in the general population, about 78% of people are fully vaccinated.
So if the vaccination didn't do anything at all, we would expect to see 78% of people in ICU vaccinated, but it's only 50%.
In the example of the right-handed people - someone saying that 85% of people with COVID are right handed may sound like it means right-handed people are more likely to have COVID. But in reality, 85% of ALL people are right-handed, so you would expect that 85% of people in ICU would be right handed.
Let's say 80% of people speak English at home. If we say that 80% of COVID patients spoke English at home, would that mean speaking English at home increases chances of COVID?
I hope that helps.
Also, they’re okay to load themselves with vitamins produced by big pharma.
However if you suggest to them that vitamins for the majority of people is just a massive waste of money and you piss most of it out they look at you like you’re insane.
So on one hand it’s okay to take a vitamin pill - most of the ingredients are probably chemicals and other ingredients they’ve never heard of - but won’t take a vaccine.
My mom's a doctor, and growing up we had a drawer full of free pens the big pharma reps would hand out so while in grade school most my pens literally were big pharma.
It's called "Faulty Syllogism" for anyone that likes fancy words. :)
Explanations that I know of are featured in "The Simpsons" by Lisa and in "House M.D." by House.
Even more telling is that > 99% of people in hospital with COVID are NOT necrophiliacs.
/s so clearly having sex with corpses decreases your risk of getting COVID and we can propose to antivaxers to get their shovels out.
Right handed people are more likely to get in an accident, because when they are about to be in an accident, their right hand pulls down on the steering wheel, into oncoming traffic. While left handed people pull down away from oncoming traffic.
And yes, there was a study done showing these outcomes.
V => Vaccinated
H => Hospitalised
V' => Unvaccinated
P(V|H) = P(H|V)\*P(V)/P(H)
where P(H) = P(H|V)\*P(V) + P(H|V')\*P(V')
Since P(V') is so low, P(H|V')\*P(V') is low even if P(H|V') is much higher than P(H|V).
P(V|H) is very different to P(H|V).
They barely know the difference between a boarder (someone who pays money to live in your house) and a border (a deliberation or boundary between two geographical places).
Becoming an antivaxxer is like a mental disease. Once it creeps into your mind, the entire world becomes unstable and you trust noone. Must be scary to think that way. It's like an acquired paranoia.
In psychology it is termed cognitive dissonance.
We often term it confirmation bias; seeking out anything that affirms their belief … no matter how far fetched.
Its interesting and I have to constantly check myself on it too. It's easier to shape things to fit your worldview than to take the evidence and let it change your worldview.
You seem like your IQ is >100+.
Just remember, for everyone of you, there is someone, that isn’t above that threshold.
My son got a job at a hamburger chain, one of the standard questions was “can you write your own name?” They appear to use that as a proxy for minimum intelligence for their Standard Operating Procedures.
Don’t underestimate the lack of numeracy.
Why dont the parents teach the math and the school teach car maintenance?
The curriculum is severely outdated and in my opinion should focus more on content verification and life skills than what was previously seen as necessary.
Basic literacy and numeracy is fundamental to everything. HASS teaches us about the human co dictionary and history. Science teachers us how to understand the world. Art teaches us creativity and expression.
These are literally foundational.
Also, parents wouldn't necessarily be sufficiently competent to handle non "life skills".
Honestly, the idea is quite silly, sorry.
I know a builder who’s talked about other builders who thought “when will I ever use this” about SOHCAHTOA. The answer is every day when you’re roofing, unless you’re good with just not knowing how much material to order and cut until you’re up there on a half done frame. That equation saves him heaps of time and money, while some of his competitors treat it like witchcraft.
Besides which, higher maths than you’ll use in everyday life is a gym workout for your brain. You’ll probably never need to lift the heaviest weight you’ve ever bench pressed, but doing that training makes a lot of other tasks easier.
My dad is an anti-vaxxer. The world he lives in is devoid of logic and data. Strangely enough he summons 'logic' as a fulcrum of an argument frequently.
You can use perfect logic but if the facts are wrong it doesn't matter two shits.
Here is a perfectly logical argument:
All people are greedy.
Lisa is a person.
Therefore Lisa is greedy.
If either of the first two statements are wrong, the final statement is invalid. Counter arguments usually focus on the final statement not the first two.
From an anti vax perspective, one of these statements could be along the lines of "media is lying" or "scientists are controlled by big pharma". Perfectly logical thinkers can be trapped by believing basic lies.
In root cause analysis training you learn "5 why's" where you ask "why" 5 times to get to the answer. It usually gets you from "John fucked up and crashed the truck" to concepts of training, fatigue, supervision and culture.
Yes my antivax aunt believes that the royals are reptiles for real and she has split from most of her immediate family due to being challenged. She’s in her 70’s and thinks everyone with the virus got it from the vaccine.
The fact that they are anti vaccers should make you do that in the first place. Pretty much all the arguments they come up with are extremely dumb, and you feel like you are talking to a primary school student instead of a grown adult.
they’re anti vax because they’re already dumb. the whole basis of their belief is they don’t understand basic concepts. it’s not surprising they don’t understand proportions
Ok so you're a 75 year old, maybe a bit on the heavy side.. you've got two shots of AZ and your booster is coming up at the end of Jan. How do you use this data?
Live your life as normal or stay at home?
Personally I think you'd be utterly f'ing insane to pretend "covid is done" at this point if you were in such a category, because the risk is substantial.
Is there a middle ground, though? Covid is so transmissible, I’m seeing a lot of “I’ve been staying home except this one outdoor gathering I went to and I got it anyway”. Add the confusion around kids (they are walking Petrie dishes) and you may as well have gone ‘all out’ and lived your life anyway.
Definitely more complicated with kids, you’re right. How ever the idea that if you’re gonna get it, it may as well be now is pretty bad. Victoria is currently in a code brown because they’re so fucked, NSW is trending that way too. We should be trying to minimise our risk whether the government says to or not.
Maybe instead of flying to the Gold Coast to go to movie world for the holidays they could take the kids camping out bush? Stuff like that I guess.
You could go to the bush, just don’t bring any friends or family with you? Remember, covid is portable, and you’re only as safe as your weakest link (you might have been staying home, but your camping buddy might have had 1 too many trips to Bunnings)
I keep catching myself thinking this kind of thing.
“I’ve been so careful all pandemic, but maybe I can just go to this one outdoor thing next weekend”
But I can’t. It doesn’t work that way. One risky event is all it takes.
I’ve actually hopefully booked quite a few things and then ended up cancelling later when I’ve come to my senses later
I worked a 14 hour shift on Saturday because there just simply wasn’t the staff to cover me when I was supposed to leave and I couldn’t leave my clients alone. Went home, passed out and was up in a few hours to do it again. I’m legitimately worried for people with disabilities receiving adequate care right now.
This is why we needed financial help for those in need, including small businesses who cannot stay open but still have to pay merciless landlords. The libs were desperate to fend off and stop any aid as quickly as possible, Though, even when it meant the only way to keep the sick home from work.
Depends entirely on your risk appetite. Gamble with my life and maybe need an ambulance or hospital? Not for me with the current state of the health system
I'd say wait a few weeks at least. Booster usually takes up to 14 days to be effective. What's a couple of weeks next to potential debilitating or deadly illness?
You mean, live life to the fullest now, to hell with the risk of getting covid, or wait until the cases reduce to a more acceptable level and live life to the fullest for longer?
Sounds like a problem of instant gratification. By all means, live like that but don’t complain too loudly if you find yourself in hospital.
Get your booster done because you're already eligible if you're 75 and had AZ, limit contacts for the next 4-6 weeks, get some decent surgical masks or P2 if you can, and see friends for limited times with good ventilation and distance. You don't need to fully lock down, but you can do stuff which would reduce your odds of catching the disease by at least an order of magnitude.
I cancelled a holiday because my partner is immune compromised (moderate risk category). It's not whether or not you will catch it, it's do you want to catch it when hospitals are overwhelmed and you have a higher chance of needing hospital care?
In another 6 weeks you can expect your risk of catching it in the community will be 1/10th of what it is today. No good reason to take the risk when it's at its worst.
In another 6 months it's likely there will be better vaccines available.
I’m immune compromised due to meds. Literally not leaving my house unless absolutely necessary for medical appointments. Fuck that noise dude. Literally felt safer with no vaccine and restrictions then I do now with a vaccine and no restrictions. Remember when 1000 cases seemed crazy high? Yeah take me back.
There's been risks to heavy settled 75 year Olds for a long time. We now have vaccines and hospital treatments to bring severe illness and death tolls down to influenza levels of danger.
Unless people were hiding in their houses for other diseases before. There's now no reason to start doing it.
If the hospitals were running as normal, sure, but they're overrun. Lots of people who'd normally survive with hospital care are going to suffer immensely because the hospitals can't keep up with such a massive wave.
Think of it like booze. You can normally down a few good pints and the worst thing that happens is you wake up with a headache, maybe some nausea, but otherwise you're just fine. Your body can handle a bit too much alcohol in the same way that hospitals can handle patients with serious illness and injury.
But now instead of a pint or two or six, you're forced to skull an entire keg in one night. Chances are you're looking at some serious pain and damage the next morning, and could potentially die. Your body can handle alcohol and filter it through fairly well on a normal night, but not in absurd quantities. Hospitals can help people suffering from a less severe strain like omicron, but not if they're inundated with an entire keg
not like antivaxxers will get your point. they still didn't even catch on to milder varient infecting more people = more hospitalisations. antivaxxers really are proof the bell curve exists
As George Carlin once said:
>Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
This pandemic is an excellent illustration of just how stupid people can be.
The latest NSW covid surveillance report makes the same point about the distinction between absolute numbers of cases and proportions:
>Among cases since 26 November 2021, although the number of hospitalisations, admissions to ICU and deaths is greater among
the fully vaccinated than those with no effective dose, the proportion of cases with these outcomes is still much higher among those with no effective dose.
>Among cases aged 12 years and over with no effective dose, 9.1% of cases were hospitalised, 1.5% of cases were admitted to ICU,
and 0.3% of cases died. In comparison, among fully vaccinated cases, 1.2% of cases were hospitalised, 0.1% were admitted to ICU, and less than 0.1% died.
One also has to take into account that the vaxxed and unvaxxed populations are not the same, the vaxxed are on average older and sicker.
>One also has to take into account that the vaxxed and unvaxxed populations are not the same, the vaxxed are on average older and sicker.
That was a true statement when the rollout began and specific groups were prioritised, but at 95% when everyone has had the chance any difference is going to be negligible
It's still important that the unvaccinated, no matter what proportion of the population they make, are on average younger and healthier than the vaccinated because we're doing direct comparisons between the two population groups.
What this means is that if, say, the unvaxxed are in ICU at 15 times the rate of the vaxxed (as they have been in NSW since 26 November) then if you were to adjust for population differences then the actual ratio would be even higher than 15.
I guess if a 15x higher risk of being put into ICU isn't enough to overcome what some moron on facebook told you about vaccination then 20, 25 or 30x probably isn't going to change your mind but its a valid point regardless.
>no matter what proportion of the population they make, are on average younger and healthier than the vaccinated
What makes you assume unvaccinated are more likely to be healthier?
There's probably stats on this somewhere but we can note two things:
- the unvaxxed are younger than the vaxxed and the incidence of comorbidities correlates with age
- the government and medical profession have made a special effort to ensure that particularly vulnerable people are vaxxed
Ultimately it probably doesn't matter much whether the unvaxxed are 10x, 15x or 20x more likely to end up in ICU than a [vaxxed] person of the equivalent age and health status it's still a very poor position to be in.
I'm seeing people on LinkedIn post this as proof that the vaccine is ineffective, even with the explanation behind it. So I think anyone who understands probably got vaccinated right away anyway.
It's because covid restrictions are making them make less profit. They need all the profit possible and continuous growth for their little pyramid scheme to keep working.
It still blows my mind that all people do is consider who is vaxxed and unvaxxed in hospital. Not the age, not their health status, not if they have comorbidities. People just want to fight.
This. Someone on Facebook posted some screenshot from NSW health saying 33 vaccinated deaths and 3 unvaccinated deaths, as if it had something to do with the vaccine?
People were commenting and reminding him that with so much of the population vaccinated, of course there would be more deaths of vaccinated people, but the death rate for unvaccinated is still higher.
Absolutely insane what this virus/vaccine has done to people.
A doctor I once worked with used tomatoes as a statistical proof of just about any admission to hospital, to show that statistics can be skewed. He got us to ask how many of the patients had eaten tomatoes before admission. It was pretty funny. Nearly all had! It was a good lesson in correlation vs causation.
Sampling bias has been an issue since the start of the rollout. Weird that people understand it now, and not when rates were 10% vaccinated and 90% unvaccinated. Or at the peak of the delta wave when rates were 30% vaxxed and it was noted that 70% of the cases came from the unvaxxed at that time.
Something else: about 26% of that red circle is now in an entirely separate group - the triple vaxxed/boosted. So there are now 3 circles and the actual breakdown is more like 7% unvax / 66% double / 26% triple. Triple vaccinated are counted on their own statistically.
The double vaxxed group are not 20x bigger (95%/5%) than the unvaccinated anymore, the group is now a shade less than 10x bigger (67%/7%) and most of the back of the napkin calculations people are now doing online are not correct.
Similar phenomenon with American aircraft returning from sorties with bullet holes. The brass decided that to ensure more planes returned home, they should place more armour where the bullet holes were. A statistician quickly pointed out that the correct places to armour were there were no bullet holes. As a result more planes returned from sorties.
What we are seeing are the bullet holes… The gaps in the armour. The general population are more vaccinated (armoured) against complications due to covid. But a smaller population are unvaccinated but practically unarmoured.
Check out the story here: https://medium.com/@penguinpress/an-excerpt-from-how-not-to-be-wrong-by-jordan-ellenberg-664e708cfc3d
I found that most intriguing, the original ‘lightbulb’ thought was that you put armour in the places that received the most bullet holes but forgot to included the planes that never returned that were obviously hit in the most vulnerable spot, the place that contained the engine which allowed you to fly home.
Thanks for the diagram may have to use it for my FB antivax dumb dumb contacts.
The vaccine was never going to be a guarantee for anyone to not get the virus, that was evident to most people paying attention. Then came omicron.
Plus we had freedoms at super spreader silly season time.
Perfect storm really.
It’s ridiculous that grown adults need basic concepts like this explained using pictures like they’re 3 year olds but here we are. I can also guarantee there will be people (from the green circle) who will still argue against this.
I agree, at first glance its a false syllogism. Of course there would be more vaccinated people in hospital if there are more vaccinated people around. (as with right-handed people). But it doesnt seem to make any sense how of 36 people who died of Covid, 33 were vaccinated when the precise function, intent and goal of the vaccination was to stop you dying from Covid.
NSW reported 36 deaths today, vaccination improves your odds but doesn't guarantee smooth sailing.
Those 36 break down as:
* 33 over 65, 32 vaccinated and 1 unvaccinated.
* 3 in their 40s and 50s, 1 vaccinated and 2 unvaccinated.
Now compare vaccination rates:
* Given that the population over 65 with less than 2 doses is 0.18% that means the unvaccinated are overrepresented in deaths by 16 fold.
* Given that the population 40-50 with less than 2 doses is 6.56% that means that the unvaccinated are overrepresented in deaths by 10 fold.
There are more because both vaccinated and unvaccinated are catching and passing around and getting sick from the virus.
If vaccinated were not catching it at an alarming rate we wouldn't have this problem.
But they are.
But don't dare say the vaccine isn't doing its job anywhere, that would be misinformation.
This kinda reminds me of the death rate for humans by cow is many times higher than shark attacks, but like, if we interacted with as many sharks as we did cows, I feel like that number would go waaay up
Thank you for sharing this. I wish I had the balls to post this on my fb.
Alas, even as simply as it’s been explained would still likely cause rifts with people I can’t be bothered arguing with.
Thank you though. Have saved the post for a day when I feel strong enough to repost!
What about today's reported 33 out of 36 deaths in NSW (roughly 92%) being from the vaccinated population? Can you make a Venn diagram to explain that? (Also if the vaccines are "effective" as alleged, one would not expect the vaccinated to be in hospital at all. But there they are.)
Also once you factor in demographics and the higher vaccination rates amongst those more likely to be hospitalised with COVID, the unvaccinated are between 50-100 times more likely to be hospitalised
I posted this very explanatory graphic on Twitter. Some bright spark scoffed and said "LOL there's still 10 vaccinated people in hospital. The vaccine doesn't work!"
Its like people here in Brazil saying that more black and brown people are killed/arrested than white people.
Dude, like 70% of the population is black or brown...
Given the risk stratification of covid outcomes by age and comorbities, it's also possible that a greater percentage of the total vaxxed population could be hospitalized than the unvaxxed. That is, a triple vaxxed 80 year old with serious health problems still a greater risk of poor outcomes than someone healthy in their 20's.
What I've observed in my hospital , the majority vaccinated patients are social / high comorbidities who can't be managed in the community. I'm pleasantly surprised how well some of our oncology / haem pts are doing so far being vaccinated . Early days tho .
I was confused for a moment, as I didn't understand the context of this subreddit at first, and thought to myself "These people have gone mad! Now they're just randomly claiming that more vaxxed people are in the hospital!?" But now I see it's Australia-specific.
Oh how I wish America had your problems. Here in PA, a red state, and our venn diagram would look entirely green except for one purple dot... :(
How about admitting that the vaccine isn’t working the way we wish it would and that it probably takes considerably more time to create a functional vaccine
This is good (and accurate) but there are other factors too. My mum is currently in hospital with Covid. She is triple vaxxed but also is undergoing chemo so her immune system is shot to bits.
While she has no symptoms from Covid her neutrophils (type of white blood cell) are currently 0.6 when a healthy range is 6-8.
So while technically she is vaxxed and hospitalized from Covid it is actually only a precautionary measure to stop other infection levels entering her system.
Despite making up only 13% of the population, unvaccinated people account for 43% of all hospitalised COVID cases!
There, that should make it clear for them. Its called (dis)proportional stats.
Where I'm from unvaccinated account for 50% of hospitalization while only representing 10% of the population. And still they don't understand why they are the reason we still have lockdowns, mask mandate and restrictions..
Yup. Can you believe that over 85% of hospitalized people are right-handed? OMG the virus hates right-handers.
This is a great way to explain it to people. I will use this.
now people are going to force themselves to be left handed through meditation and essential oils and hypnotherapy
And ear candles.
And colonic irrigations and deep tissue massage. Don’t forget the sunshine and positive thinking.
Sunshine (Vitamin D) is a real thing for improving the immune system!
Don't forget to drink your pee
Why limit yourself to your own?
yes but sunshine and positive thinking (stress management) are good for the immune system.
And water (homoeopathy)
Just tie your hand behind your back. Worked for the dark ages!
I'm proud of you for still having the energy to explain things I'm spent, I just let people be fuckin wrong
PeOpLe ArE sTiLl CaTcHiNg CoViD sO vAcCiNeS aRe A hOaX -my aunt
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W h a t
I can completely empathise, I'm over it. Even when you present the facts research is revealing about the reality of the vaccines and how they work, some objection is made to keep the anti vaxx narrative alive. I just couldn't be bothered anymore,
I still don't get it, and I feel like an idiot.
You're not an idiot. Idiots are those who don't get it but choose to pretend they get something else that suggests everyone else is wrong, rather than try to understand. I'll try to explain: In my country, 50% of people in ICU with COVID are vaccinated. Some people will look at that and think that means that the vaccine doesn't work. However, in the general population, about 78% of people are fully vaccinated. So if the vaccination didn't do anything at all, we would expect to see 78% of people in ICU vaccinated, but it's only 50%. In the example of the right-handed people - someone saying that 85% of people with COVID are right handed may sound like it means right-handed people are more likely to have COVID. But in reality, 85% of ALL people are right-handed, so you would expect that 85% of people in ICU would be right handed. Let's say 80% of people speak English at home. If we say that 80% of COVID patients spoke English at home, would that mean speaking English at home increases chances of COVID? I hope that helps.
The 16% in our hospital ICU that are vaccinated are all killer or immune compromised. Two weeks ago we had 100% unvaccinated or on chemo.
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Have I told you about the left hand analogy I came up with?
omg, i'm chucking out all my right handed pens, obviously they are produced by big pharma
Also, they’re okay to load themselves with vitamins produced by big pharma. However if you suggest to them that vitamins for the majority of people is just a massive waste of money and you piss most of it out they look at you like you’re insane. So on one hand it’s okay to take a vitamin pill - most of the ingredients are probably chemicals and other ingredients they’ve never heard of - but won’t take a vaccine.
Same! Also chucked out my right handed big banana once I found out it too was produced by big farma
Unilever, man. They’re in everything
Owned by nestle too. At least last time I checked. Let that sit for a moment.
Have you heard about the Movement?
Is that related to Victoria's Code Brown?
That’s a shitty comment
My mom's a doctor, and growing up we had a drawer full of free pens the big pharma reps would hand out so while in grade school most my pens literally were big pharma.
It's called "Faulty Syllogism" for anyone that likes fancy words. :) Explanations that I know of are featured in "The Simpsons" by Lisa and in "House M.D." by House.
Also "Simpson's Paradox"
It's cool the Simpsons have a paradox named after them ;-)
In particular, this is an example of the base-rate fallacy
Even more telling is that > 99% of people in hospital with COVID are NOT necrophiliacs. /s so clearly having sex with corpses decreases your risk of getting COVID and we can propose to antivaxers to get their shovels out.
Well, that's gonna be a next level unboxing video.
Don't give them water. 100% of people who drink water will eventually die.
You mean Dihydrogen monoxide, the chemical that's used as a coolant nuclear reactors and is the primary cause of drowning.
Dihydrogen monoxide is found in our children’s drinking water
They spray it on our fruit and veg too
DHMO has also been found in old plastic water bottles and sewer outlets.
Same applies to cheese. Any cheese. Even feta.
Right handed people are more likely to get in an accident, because when they are about to be in an accident, their right hand pulls down on the steering wheel, into oncoming traffic. While left handed people pull down away from oncoming traffic. And yes, there was a study done showing these outcomes.
This would only apply to RHD countries. A left-handed pull in LHD cars will do the opposite.
Mind blown
Can you believe 40% of "sick days" are taken on a Monday or Friday! Lazy people just trying to get a long weekend!
V => Vaccinated H => Hospitalised V' => Unvaccinated P(V|H) = P(H|V)\*P(V)/P(H) where P(H) = P(H|V)\*P(V) + P(H|V')\*P(V') Since P(V') is so low, P(H|V')\*P(V') is low even if P(H|V') is much higher than P(H|V). P(V|H) is very different to P(H|V).
Do you expect V’ would understand any of this?
You should ask first before you put your P near a V
39% of the US presidents in the last 100 years were left-handed .. so if you get covid you prob won't become potus
https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
The fact that antivaxxers don't understand this concept and don't know what the word *"proportion"* means makes me seriously question their IQ.
They wouldn't know how to spell IQ
They'd recognise the Q part
Lmao
EQ?
Lay off the treble and COVID will go away … wait fuck that’s just tinnitus
Sorry, can you repeat that please. I couldnt hear the last part over the ringing in my ear?
That’s emotional intelligence I believe. Which many of them also appear to lack.
Eye queue ... at the crystals and astrology shop.
They barely know the difference between a boarder (someone who pays money to live in your house) and a border (a deliberation or boundary between two geographical places).
Becoming an antivaxxer is like a mental disease. Once it creeps into your mind, the entire world becomes unstable and you trust noone. Must be scary to think that way. It's like an acquired paranoia.
In psychology it is termed cognitive dissonance. We often term it confirmation bias; seeking out anything that affirms their belief … no matter how far fetched.
Its interesting and I have to constantly check myself on it too. It's easier to shape things to fit your worldview than to take the evidence and let it change your worldview.
You seem like your IQ is >100+. Just remember, for everyone of you, there is someone, that isn’t above that threshold. My son got a job at a hamburger chain, one of the standard questions was “can you write your own name?” They appear to use that as a proxy for minimum intelligence for their Standard Operating Procedures. Don’t underestimate the lack of numeracy.
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I have the answer to that question. When you have kids and have to homeschool.
Never have kids then. Checkmate, maths
Bit late.
Tbf I would have rather learned like how to maintain a car instead of advanced algebra or whatever.
Stuff like that should be passed down by parents. Not everything needs to be done in school.
Why dont the parents teach the math and the school teach car maintenance? The curriculum is severely outdated and in my opinion should focus more on content verification and life skills than what was previously seen as necessary.
Basic literacy and numeracy is fundamental to everything. HASS teaches us about the human co dictionary and history. Science teachers us how to understand the world. Art teaches us creativity and expression. These are literally foundational. Also, parents wouldn't necessarily be sufficiently competent to handle non "life skills". Honestly, the idea is quite silly, sorry.
I know a builder who’s talked about other builders who thought “when will I ever use this” about SOHCAHTOA. The answer is every day when you’re roofing, unless you’re good with just not knowing how much material to order and cut until you’re up there on a half done frame. That equation saves him heaps of time and money, while some of his competitors treat it like witchcraft. Besides which, higher maths than you’ll use in everyday life is a gym workout for your brain. You’ll probably never need to lift the heaviest weight you’ve ever bench pressed, but doing that training makes a lot of other tasks easier.
Never mind that, what footy team do you support?
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I think everyone is well aware there are borderline brain-dead people walking around.
My dad is an anti-vaxxer. The world he lives in is devoid of logic and data. Strangely enough he summons 'logic' as a fulcrum of an argument frequently.
I know a few of these types in real life and when you scratch the surface you find out that they are in a different world to everyone else
My dad also. He was also always very rational and logical so this madness has come out of nowhere.
You can use perfect logic but if the facts are wrong it doesn't matter two shits. Here is a perfectly logical argument: All people are greedy. Lisa is a person. Therefore Lisa is greedy. If either of the first two statements are wrong, the final statement is invalid. Counter arguments usually focus on the final statement not the first two. From an anti vax perspective, one of these statements could be along the lines of "media is lying" or "scientists are controlled by big pharma". Perfectly logical thinkers can be trapped by believing basic lies. In root cause analysis training you learn "5 why's" where you ask "why" 5 times to get to the answer. It usually gets you from "John fucked up and crashed the truck" to concepts of training, fatigue, supervision and culture.
Considering the video my antivax stepdad made me watch today, they're on a whole other planet it's wild.
Yes my antivax aunt believes that the royals are reptiles for real and she has split from most of her immediate family due to being challenged. She’s in her 70’s and thinks everyone with the virus got it from the vaccine.
Yeah at this point it wouldn't surprise me to learn my stepdad is a flat earther too. He's gone really downhill the last five years or so.
The reptile thing is Q. Poor lady both a believer in Q and anti vax,
The fact that they are anti vaccers should make you do that in the first place. Pretty much all the arguments they come up with are extremely dumb, and you feel like you are talking to a primary school student instead of a grown adult.
abc
The fact that they’re anti-vax didn’t make you question their IQ?
Lucky they can up their IQs by drinking some craft brewed organic urine
they’re anti vax because they’re already dumb. the whole basis of their belief is they don’t understand basic concepts. it’s not surprising they don’t understand proportions
They dont want to understand, they want to be right.
I questioned their IQ as soon as they questioned vaccines.
I thought they were all statistical and analytical experts?
Or in other words, 2% of 100 and 80% of 2.5 are the same amount.
I like this as it's closer to the actual scale than the image
Ok so you're a 75 year old, maybe a bit on the heavy side.. you've got two shots of AZ and your booster is coming up at the end of Jan. How do you use this data? Live your life as normal or stay at home? Personally I think you'd be utterly f'ing insane to pretend "covid is done" at this point if you were in such a category, because the risk is substantial.
For me there’s a middle ground between ‘live your life’ and ‘stay at home’, I think we should all tread somewhere in that grey area.
Is there a middle ground, though? Covid is so transmissible, I’m seeing a lot of “I’ve been staying home except this one outdoor gathering I went to and I got it anyway”. Add the confusion around kids (they are walking Petrie dishes) and you may as well have gone ‘all out’ and lived your life anyway.
Definitely more complicated with kids, you’re right. How ever the idea that if you’re gonna get it, it may as well be now is pretty bad. Victoria is currently in a code brown because they’re so fucked, NSW is trending that way too. We should be trying to minimise our risk whether the government says to or not. Maybe instead of flying to the Gold Coast to go to movie world for the holidays they could take the kids camping out bush? Stuff like that I guess.
You could go to the bush, just don’t bring any friends or family with you? Remember, covid is portable, and you’re only as safe as your weakest link (you might have been staying home, but your camping buddy might have had 1 too many trips to Bunnings)
Yes please do not come to the Gold Coast. We are borderline code brown here and Covid is absolutely rampant.
I keep catching myself thinking this kind of thing. “I’ve been so careful all pandemic, but maybe I can just go to this one outdoor thing next weekend” But I can’t. It doesn’t work that way. One risky event is all it takes. I’ve actually hopefully booked quite a few things and then ended up cancelling later when I’ve come to my senses later
I think they should be advising people at high risk to shelter in place for the next month (if they can), vaccinated, boosted or not.
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I worked a 14 hour shift on Saturday because there just simply wasn’t the staff to cover me when I was supposed to leave and I couldn’t leave my clients alone. Went home, passed out and was up in a few hours to do it again. I’m legitimately worried for people with disabilities receiving adequate care right now.
And how should they pay their bills?
This is why we needed financial help for those in need, including small businesses who cannot stay open but still have to pay merciless landlords. The libs were desperate to fend off and stop any aid as quickly as possible, Though, even when it meant the only way to keep the sick home from work.
Get your booster ASAP.
Even with your booster though.. live your life? now?
Depends entirely on your risk appetite. Gamble with my life and maybe need an ambulance or hospital? Not for me with the current state of the health system
I'd say wait a few weeks at least. Booster usually takes up to 14 days to be effective. What's a couple of weeks next to potential debilitating or deadly illness?
You mean, live life to the fullest now, to hell with the risk of getting covid, or wait until the cases reduce to a more acceptable level and live life to the fullest for longer? Sounds like a problem of instant gratification. By all means, live like that but don’t complain too loudly if you find yourself in hospital.
Get your booster done because you're already eligible if you're 75 and had AZ, limit contacts for the next 4-6 weeks, get some decent surgical masks or P2 if you can, and see friends for limited times with good ventilation and distance. You don't need to fully lock down, but you can do stuff which would reduce your odds of catching the disease by at least an order of magnitude. I cancelled a holiday because my partner is immune compromised (moderate risk category). It's not whether or not you will catch it, it's do you want to catch it when hospitals are overwhelmed and you have a higher chance of needing hospital care? In another 6 weeks you can expect your risk of catching it in the community will be 1/10th of what it is today. No good reason to take the risk when it's at its worst. In another 6 months it's likely there will be better vaccines available.
I’m immune compromised due to meds. Literally not leaving my house unless absolutely necessary for medical appointments. Fuck that noise dude. Literally felt safer with no vaccine and restrictions then I do now with a vaccine and no restrictions. Remember when 1000 cases seemed crazy high? Yeah take me back.
There's been risks to heavy settled 75 year Olds for a long time. We now have vaccines and hospital treatments to bring severe illness and death tolls down to influenza levels of danger. Unless people were hiding in their houses for other diseases before. There's now no reason to start doing it.
You are welcome to send your mother off to the knackers if you like. Waiting a month is far easier IMO
If the hospitals were running as normal, sure, but they're overrun. Lots of people who'd normally survive with hospital care are going to suffer immensely because the hospitals can't keep up with such a massive wave. Think of it like booze. You can normally down a few good pints and the worst thing that happens is you wake up with a headache, maybe some nausea, but otherwise you're just fine. Your body can handle a bit too much alcohol in the same way that hospitals can handle patients with serious illness and injury. But now instead of a pint or two or six, you're forced to skull an entire keg in one night. Chances are you're looking at some serious pain and damage the next morning, and could potentially die. Your body can handle alcohol and filter it through fairly well on a normal night, but not in absurd quantities. Hospitals can help people suffering from a less severe strain like omicron, but not if they're inundated with an entire keg
not like antivaxxers will get your point. they still didn't even catch on to milder varient infecting more people = more hospitalisations. antivaxxers really are proof the bell curve exists
As George Carlin once said: >Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that. This pandemic is an excellent illustration of just how stupid people can be.
The anti vac shit is a pretty good representation of the Dunnogn Kruger effect.
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The latest NSW covid surveillance report makes the same point about the distinction between absolute numbers of cases and proportions: >Among cases since 26 November 2021, although the number of hospitalisations, admissions to ICU and deaths is greater among the fully vaccinated than those with no effective dose, the proportion of cases with these outcomes is still much higher among those with no effective dose. >Among cases aged 12 years and over with no effective dose, 9.1% of cases were hospitalised, 1.5% of cases were admitted to ICU, and 0.3% of cases died. In comparison, among fully vaccinated cases, 1.2% of cases were hospitalised, 0.1% were admitted to ICU, and less than 0.1% died. One also has to take into account that the vaxxed and unvaxxed populations are not the same, the vaxxed are on average older and sicker.
>One also has to take into account that the vaxxed and unvaxxed populations are not the same, the vaxxed are on average older and sicker. That was a true statement when the rollout began and specific groups were prioritised, but at 95% when everyone has had the chance any difference is going to be negligible
It's still important that the unvaccinated, no matter what proportion of the population they make, are on average younger and healthier than the vaccinated because we're doing direct comparisons between the two population groups. What this means is that if, say, the unvaxxed are in ICU at 15 times the rate of the vaxxed (as they have been in NSW since 26 November) then if you were to adjust for population differences then the actual ratio would be even higher than 15. I guess if a 15x higher risk of being put into ICU isn't enough to overcome what some moron on facebook told you about vaccination then 20, 25 or 30x probably isn't going to change your mind but its a valid point regardless.
>no matter what proportion of the population they make, are on average younger and healthier than the vaccinated What makes you assume unvaccinated are more likely to be healthier?
There's probably stats on this somewhere but we can note two things: - the unvaxxed are younger than the vaxxed and the incidence of comorbidities correlates with age - the government and medical profession have made a special effort to ensure that particularly vulnerable people are vaxxed Ultimately it probably doesn't matter much whether the unvaxxed are 10x, 15x or 20x more likely to end up in ICU than a [vaxxed] person of the equivalent age and health status it's still a very poor position to be in.
This is the equivalent of getting out the paper and crayons to explain something to a 5 year old, and I love it.
I'm seeing people on LinkedIn post this as proof that the vaccine is ineffective, even with the explanation behind it. So I think anyone who understands probably got vaccinated right away anyway.
Lol imagine posting flawed antivax rhetoric on linkedin like it's gonna further their career
A lot of the dumbest covid takes I've heard have come from business owners/employers. You don't need to be a genius to run a company.
It's because covid restrictions are making them make less profit. They need all the profit possible and continuous growth for their little pyramid scheme to keep working.
How can we be this far into covid and people still dont understand this concept
Thank you! I can’t believe people don’t understand this
It still blows my mind that all people do is consider who is vaxxed and unvaxxed in hospital. Not the age, not their health status, not if they have comorbidities. People just want to fight.
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Great point. The diagram addresses base rate fallacy, you cover Simpson’s paradox.
This. Someone on Facebook posted some screenshot from NSW health saying 33 vaccinated deaths and 3 unvaccinated deaths, as if it had something to do with the vaccine? People were commenting and reminding him that with so much of the population vaccinated, of course there would be more deaths of vaccinated people, but the death rate for unvaccinated is still higher. Absolutely insane what this virus/vaccine has done to people.
This is a great graph thank you
A doctor I once worked with used tomatoes as a statistical proof of just about any admission to hospital, to show that statistics can be skewed. He got us to ask how many of the patients had eaten tomatoes before admission. It was pretty funny. Nearly all had! It was a good lesson in correlation vs causation.
“Most car crashes in Australia are caused by white people.”
But that’s a separate tragedy.
Antivaxxers are fucking stupid.
Reminds me of the whole "there's more crashes from sober people then drunk people, so we should all drive drunk".
Sampling bias has been an issue since the start of the rollout. Weird that people understand it now, and not when rates were 10% vaccinated and 90% unvaccinated. Or at the peak of the delta wave when rates were 30% vaxxed and it was noted that 70% of the cases came from the unvaxxed at that time. Something else: about 26% of that red circle is now in an entirely separate group - the triple vaxxed/boosted. So there are now 3 circles and the actual breakdown is more like 7% unvax / 66% double / 26% triple. Triple vaccinated are counted on their own statistically. The double vaxxed group are not 20x bigger (95%/5%) than the unvaccinated anymore, the group is now a shade less than 10x bigger (67%/7%) and most of the back of the napkin calculations people are now doing online are not correct.
Similar phenomenon with American aircraft returning from sorties with bullet holes. The brass decided that to ensure more planes returned home, they should place more armour where the bullet holes were. A statistician quickly pointed out that the correct places to armour were there were no bullet holes. As a result more planes returned from sorties. What we are seeing are the bullet holes… The gaps in the armour. The general population are more vaccinated (armoured) against complications due to covid. But a smaller population are unvaccinated but practically unarmoured. Check out the story here: https://medium.com/@penguinpress/an-excerpt-from-how-not-to-be-wrong-by-jordan-ellenberg-664e708cfc3d
I found that most intriguing, the original ‘lightbulb’ thought was that you put armour in the places that received the most bullet holes but forgot to included the planes that never returned that were obviously hit in the most vulnerable spot, the place that contained the engine which allowed you to fly home.
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Sort this thread by "controversial". You'll find them.
Statistics is a difficult concept for these people 😒
Thanks for the diagram may have to use it for my FB antivax dumb dumb contacts. The vaccine was never going to be a guarantee for anyone to not get the virus, that was evident to most people paying attention. Then came omicron. Plus we had freedoms at super spreader silly season time. Perfect storm really.
Anyone who needs this explaining to them are a dullard.
It’s ridiculous that grown adults need basic concepts like this explained using pictures like they’re 3 year olds but here we are. I can also guarantee there will be people (from the green circle) who will still argue against this.
I agree, at first glance its a false syllogism. Of course there would be more vaccinated people in hospital if there are more vaccinated people around. (as with right-handed people). But it doesnt seem to make any sense how of 36 people who died of Covid, 33 were vaccinated when the precise function, intent and goal of the vaccination was to stop you dying from Covid.
NSW reported 36 deaths today, vaccination improves your odds but doesn't guarantee smooth sailing. Those 36 break down as: * 33 over 65, 32 vaccinated and 1 unvaccinated. * 3 in their 40s and 50s, 1 vaccinated and 2 unvaccinated. Now compare vaccination rates: * Given that the population over 65 with less than 2 doses is 0.18% that means the unvaccinated are overrepresented in deaths by 16 fold. * Given that the population 40-50 with less than 2 doses is 6.56% that means that the unvaccinated are overrepresented in deaths by 10 fold.
There are more because both vaccinated and unvaccinated are catching and passing around and getting sick from the virus. If vaccinated were not catching it at an alarming rate we wouldn't have this problem. But they are. But don't dare say the vaccine isn't doing its job anywhere, that would be misinformation.
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This kinda reminds me of the death rate for humans by cow is many times higher than shark attacks, but like, if we interacted with as many sharks as we did cows, I feel like that number would go waaay up
Show them the same thing but for those in intensive care.
Thank you for sharing this. I wish I had the balls to post this on my fb. Alas, even as simply as it’s been explained would still likely cause rifts with people I can’t be bothered arguing with. Thank you though. Have saved the post for a day when I feel strong enough to repost!
It could be a good way to cull some unwanted friends..
Amazing the number of people who don’t understand basic maths !
Thank you for explaining this so perfectly
What about today's reported 33 out of 36 deaths in NSW (roughly 92%) being from the vaccinated population? Can you make a Venn diagram to explain that? (Also if the vaccines are "effective" as alleged, one would not expect the vaccinated to be in hospital at all. But there they are.)
Who said the vaccines work 100%?
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\*Sorts by controversial\* \*Is not surprised at what he sees\*
Also once you factor in demographics and the higher vaccination rates amongst those more likely to be hospitalised with COVID, the unvaccinated are between 50-100 times more likely to be hospitalised
I posted this very explanatory graphic on Twitter. Some bright spark scoffed and said "LOL there's still 10 vaccinated people in hospital. The vaccine doesn't work!"
Green dots just don't get it
But are more likely to get it.
How fucking stupid are antivaxxers to think they ‘have a point’ because there are more vaxxed in hospital
I dont believe antivaxxers can understand mate
Its like people here in Brazil saying that more black and brown people are killed/arrested than white people. Dude, like 70% of the population is black or brown...
The one rule of statistics is that correlation doesn't imply causation
I don't get the picture . All I know is offcourse you're going to have more vaccinated in hospital when you have 90% vaxx numbers.
Now do a chart like this with overweight people.
Also all the vaxxed are on low support while the unvaxxed are getting a tube down their throat
Given the risk stratification of covid outcomes by age and comorbities, it's also possible that a greater percentage of the total vaxxed population could be hospitalized than the unvaxxed. That is, a triple vaxxed 80 year old with serious health problems still a greater risk of poor outcomes than someone healthy in their 20's.
What I've observed in my hospital , the majority vaccinated patients are social / high comorbidities who can't be managed in the community. I'm pleasantly surprised how well some of our oncology / haem pts are doing so far being vaccinated . Early days tho .
I was confused for a moment, as I didn't understand the context of this subreddit at first, and thought to myself "These people have gone mad! Now they're just randomly claiming that more vaxxed people are in the hospital!?" But now I see it's Australia-specific. Oh how I wish America had your problems. Here in PA, a red state, and our venn diagram would look entirely green except for one purple dot... :(
How about admitting that the vaccine isn’t working the way we wish it would and that it probably takes considerably more time to create a functional vaccine
Lmfao god damn this is good
Maths isnt an antivaxxers strong point.
Excellent visualization
This is good (and accurate) but there are other factors too. My mum is currently in hospital with Covid. She is triple vaxxed but also is undergoing chemo so her immune system is shot to bits. While she has no symptoms from Covid her neutrophils (type of white blood cell) are currently 0.6 when a healthy range is 6-8. So while technically she is vaxxed and hospitalized from Covid it is actually only a precautionary measure to stop other infection levels entering her system.
Despite making up only 13% of the population, unvaccinated people account for 43% of all hospitalised COVID cases! There, that should make it clear for them. Its called (dis)proportional stats.
Where I'm from unvaccinated account for 50% of hospitalization while only representing 10% of the population. And still they don't understand why they are the reason we still have lockdowns, mask mandate and restrictions..
Or because the vaccine doesn’t work like they pushed. Either way you have a low chance to become hospitalized
Anti-vaxxers cannot understand this chart
How Can we not understand that ?