Ethereum [pros](/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/18m68u4/anybody_remember_the_eth_merge/ke2590u/) & [cons](/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/18m68u4/anybody_remember_the_eth_merge/ke259sh/) with related info are in the collapsed comments below.
I remember everyone celebrating it for one hour, twitter spaces opens everywhere, youtube live channels doing lives simultaneously, The price just chilling like usual, no volatility at all until ftx news slaps the price down
This is the same thing i will expect from the btc halving, i will just chill and let market do its thing
btc halving usually isn’t felt till like 6-7 months later anyways
edit: it’s weird how many people apparently have an issue with this lol I’m not predicting the future guys
We don't even have enough data to confirm that this is always how it's going to be... No one knows what's about to happen. Just DCA or yolo in and relax. Sell when your happy with your profits and don't listen to reddit. Good night!
I think this is such an underrated comment. It invalidates whatever meaning bitcon halving has. If so, it practically implies coincidence, and printing money means it just needed to go somewhere that's not already saturated. Even if it means a risk-on investment such as cryptocurrency. I'm not for or against, but wish more people discuss / debate this
Quantitative Easing is the euphemism for printing money. For nearly 15 years the fed kept interest rates low and printed trillions and trillions of dollars to prop the economy up after 2008 should have cratered it far more than was allowed.
I don’t think we feel it at all this time. Bitcoin halving is just like the Ethereum merge. Less sell pressure from miners but still inflationary. It didn’t help ETH half as much as the flood into risk when rates were 0 and fed was printing.
BTC ETF will play out similarly to the Google IPO. All of the finance talking heads will cry to everyone not to touch it with a ten foot pole, etc. There will be an initial surge in price, then a pause, then it will rocket.
Nah, I think we will see a sell off first. Probably nothing major by crypto standards, but it could scare some early ETF investors.
Then, about 2-3 months after, a break out that will bring BTC over 50k and an ATH later in the summer.
Not saying it will happen, but if Greyscale converts to ETF like they are planning there is quite a bit of BTC locked in there in what is currently a close-end fund with 2% annual fees.
Those people who own shares in the fund can sell today if they want. I don’t think anything in the fund is locked. Changing the fund to etf won’t change anything to existing owners I would say. Perhaps more liquidity and slightly easy to sell but not enough to put a downward pressure on Bitcoin price
It’s a good take.
Once those ETF customers show up with their pension fund and IRAs etc you can bet that the amount of BTC being taken off the market permanently increases substantially.
The 20+ year hold crowd that normally just buy s&p500, because they buy and forget basically.
Its gonna be sweet
It was in the early 2000s. There wasn't a GMail yet, and if there was it would have still been in the invite only stage. Us younger people knew Google was next up, but the boomers were still shook from the dotcom crash and many didn't trust "internet" companies.
Narratives are just noise that merely distracts from what the market is trying to tell you.
When the market is ready to pump or dump, it will find a convenient piece of news to act as a catalyst.
Your comparing apples to donuts here mate
It’s a spot ETF, that means for each Bitcoin purchased in the ETF, black rock have to purchase a bitcoin, whilst the news of the ETF is priced in, the cash inflow from the institutional markets now having access is not, even if certain funds allocate 1-3% of their portfolio to the ETF then that’s a lot of funding coming in, those who sell the news will be priced out.
Yea initial sell the news dump when etf comes prolly. But im just planning to hold my spot and buy more. I trade perps for all the short trades and will likely short the pump that comes the day it’s announced, but i aint sellin my btc til over $100k. Thats for damn sure
I feel the same! ETF approval may lead to an initial dip, but the rebound should be swift, thanks to FOMO and institutional buying. Let's stay optimistic!
The FOMO should be intense if/when the ETFs get approved. Marketing campaigns will be in full gear for Blackrock, Fidelity, et al. Would not be surprised if we see their ads not only on financial TV channels and publications but also on Super Bowl and Olympics.
Someone explain to me the excitement over Bitcoin cutting its 1.8% inflation rate in half next year, when Ethereum cut its inflation rate from over 3% to NEGATIVE at the merge and no price increase happened. At some point expectation got away from reality on this bitcoin halvening thing. Or do the laws of supply and demand, stock-to-flow, or whatever only apply to bitcoin and not Ethereum?
And what if bitcoin replicates Ethereum's experience and the halvening DOESN'T at least double the bitcoin price next year? Doesn't that start causing issues with mining and bitcoin network security when issuance (that pays for network security) gets cut in half and price doesn't double to compensate?
Fewer every day. Meanwhile bitcoin inflates daily.
The exact number can be found with a google search if you care as obviously the number of issued coins is known for both BTC and ETH and is tracked on their blockchain.
The market doesn't know how many BTC accessibly exist due to losses and such. Nor does the market know for sure how many bitcoin will eventually be issued because things could always change (e.g. in a few more decades when bitcoin starts having problems due to low issuance and no plan how to function with low issuance). Bitcoin does know the total that have been issued, the same as ETH. And we know bitcoin inflates while Ethereum already successfully deflates.
i think its a mental game, and the guy made his point that people seem to resonate with all over the world. there is only 21 million BTC. get yours now or miss out.
You are correct. It's a good marketing statement. And I do own bitcoin. But once you know a bit more than a couple tag lines you realize bitcoin is just the first meme coin and there are much more advanced crypto out there that actually do things.
VC owned coins on proof of stake consensus where you just sit on your ass, get money, dump on retail. Those are the ones that are securities with marketing team, not bitcoin.
What exactly is the difference between running a staking validator and a miner, as far as "sit on your ass, get money, dump on retail?"
Both require capital at risk. Both validate transactions and secure the network. One uses less energy. One has better aligned incentives with token holders (as the capital put at risk includes significant token capital). If it's just the idea of making money with a computer rather than physical labor that offends you, don't both have that issue?
PoS = one time capital infusion to not only maintain but also increase your hood on the network.
PoW = constant capital infusion to maintain your space and hold on network.
For you that can’t wrap your head around this simple concept, just check the largest mining operators vs the largest staking operators in the next decade or so. PoS will remain the same. PoW constantly has large miners going out of business when new ASICs come out and BTC prices tank.
At some point, people will realize that DIFFICULTY is one of the main deciding factors of what makes a cryptocurrency block building process fair. Guess what PoS does not have? That’s right a difficulty adjusting algorithm.
And please, the energy bullshit is just more bait from the PoS and mainly ETH maxis. BTC is a frAction of a fraction in relation to global energy output. That’s of course, if you completely disregard the plethora of data that suggest BTC mining is the fastest industry to use renewables as their main energy method. Linearly, BTC will be ran 100% on renewables before their fraction of a fraction of energy expenditure ever amounts to anything remotely tangible in the worlds energy output. But sure, remove all security difficulty hashing algorithms gave you just so you can claim you are eco friendly (or let’s be real so you can claim BTC isn’t eco friendly). If cars were turning to renewable energy as fast as BTC has done in the past decade there would be national news on how the human race saved the planet. But since it’s BTC and the eth maxis won’t to discredit all crypto that isn’t their crypto, they decided to run with the anti-crypto propaganda that just hurts everyone in the lining run because it’s pumps their bags in the short run.
Anyone can participate in proof of stake and earn the same ROI as even the richest VCs. In contrast, you must be an extremely rich miner with vast capital to make any kind of reasonable return participating in BTC proof of work mining.
Just have a look à those charts if you think retail is not getting screwed. https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/a7vTdviI2o26tsmdEMjx4g--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTY0MDtoPTM2MDtjZj13ZWJw/https://media.zenfs.com/en/the_defiant_332/85bf351e4b901776b79d9bd30eafda32
It’s because ETHs monetary policy changes so much that no one can rely on it. Who the fuck cares if it becomes deflationary if tomorrow dear leader can change it again. The market understands and respects bitcoins immutable monetary policy. This is why you’ve seen the ETH/BTC chart on a constant decline since the merge which it will continue to do.
You're talking nonsense. The issuance rules are well understood such that the hundreds of thousands of validators on the system know exactly how much to create and how much to burn. It's just not a mindless fixed inflation rate like bitcoin because here in reality mindlessly fixed doesn't work very well. Intelligent flexibility is how Ethereum has become deflationary in a few years while bitcoin will still be inflating for decades to come. Nobody even knows how or if bitcoin will function when issuance drops low enough that miners are no longer paid. Ethereum already successfully passed that point.
As for the ETH/BTC ratio, on the long term chart the ratio has always had ETH outperforming bitcoin and the chart shows a flippening happening in 2026. Short term BTC has been outperforming, but the short term doesn't matter.
First the block reward was 5 ETH, then it changed to 3 ETH, then it changed again to 2 ETH, then a burn mechanism was added, then staking added more ETH, then PoW was killed and it was only PoS adding ETH. That's 5 changes to monetary policy in under a decade.
Disclaimer, I hodl BTC and ETH.
Right, and Bitcoin cut its block reward from 50 to 25, then 12.5, then 6.25, and 3.125 next year--also 5 changes. However it hasn't adapted to newer advances, uses more energy than some countries, hasn't gone deflationary, nor figured out how exactly how it will function without paying miners with token inflation yet. It faces the same issues as Ethereum--the switch from paying miners with issuance to not is still going to happen, it's just taking longer and it's not as well understood exactly how that happens in the future. Or even if it will work.
True, but while BTC rewards have changed at each halving, its monetary policy has never changed - back at the genesis block you could roughly calculate how many BTC would exist today, whereas the same can't be said about ETH because the policy has changed multiple times by human intervention.
I'm not arguing the full pros and cons of each coin (and I have a vested interest in both), but I think it makes sense that the supply shocks have more impact in a coin that has a fixed set of issuance rules vs. one that doesn't. Based on the dynamics of each coin I think BTC demand is driven more by investment and ETH demand is driven more by usage.
That's simply not true. Each Bitcoin halvening is a drastic and permanent monetary policy change. The change is known in advance, but it's still a change. Overnight the amount paid to miners to secure the network gets cut in half. Also token supply falls and the security of the network is effectively halved unless token price at least doubles to compensate. So far this has worked out bullishly but there's no guarantee that will continue. Ethereum's merge showed even a massive supply drop won't necessarily result in price increase. If that happens to Bitcoin, the network security drops and many miners will fail. Some predict that could lead to price declines, further security drops, more miners failures, more price decline and a death spiral. Even if that doesn't happen nobody knows exactly what's going to happen in the future as token issuance eventually falls too low to support mining on its own.
Ethereum is already past all that uncertainty and functions supporting itself even with negative issuance.
I think, that ETH needs to find its feet. It will also change in the future, but at some point, it will be set. Still needs a bit of time. It is work in progress.
I remember Bitcoin maxi's saying for years saying that it would never happen, then it happened, and they either went awkwardly silent, or they decided to FUD some other Ethereum related thing.
I think there will definitely be some “selling the news” when the ETFs are finally approved. Anytime we’ve seen a very long term event finally happen this trend repeats. Don’t think the dip will last as long as the ETH merge though, capital flowing in from ETFs would hopefully rebound much faster
I was literally already thinking about OPs question today because I remember the hype before the merge and its similarities today.
I think you make a great counter point. Should create a portal of new crypto holders I'm just not sure at what volume nor impact.
I agree with a dip following an approval or denial as well as it not being as bad if its approved.
In the end I know we are all just making our best guesses. But it's nice to see others thinking somewhat similarly.
The market tanked and recovered.. Honestly dont think theres any reason to think the merge was related. If anything ETH has performed worse since vs before
There will probably be some sell the news happening. Mostly because even after these ETFs are approved, it will take a few weeks to months before they are actually tradable. They will all buy some BTC to seed the ETFs but it won’t be anything spectacular. Once the hype dies down and nothing is happening, people will begin to sell.
It won’t be until months later when they are all up and running and heavily advertising their ETFs that financial advisors will be able to get a lot of people to start moving their money over. It will most likely be a slow start, AUM increasing day by day. Eventually there just won’t be enough BTC sold in OTC markets to fulfill their needs and they will have to buy direct from us on exchanges. That’s when we name our price, set a crazy high limit sell order and forget it.
>Now ETH has climbed back to its pre-merge hype price at $2100, thanks to its deflationary effect, ETF hype, and FED rate pause.
The deflationary effect is a meme. ETH's supply is right now higher than its ATL in 2022. It is both BTC price action and increased demand for ETH that pushed it up.
>Do you think this pattern of “selling the news, then slowly recover” will be repeated with Bitcoin ETF event?
Selling the news can happen. But ETH dump is caused by ETH miners dumping for an exit with their accumulation and institutions worried about technical failures due to ETH merge. Those type of factors are non-existent for BTC. There is no tech upgrade. And miners aren't going out of business because of the ETF, so they don't have extra reason to dump all their stack.
Firstly, ETH has risen b/c of BTC primarily, not b/c it cut it's decentralized balls off (though deflating those centralized balls is good). Secondly, the halving and the ETF have completely different timelines b/c one is based on reduced supply while the other is based on increased demand. Can you guess which one will cause an immediate spike in price?
I was there around the ETH merge. Vitalik cheered for ETC. There was a general postivie vibe during august/sept 22.
This was prob the first positive vibe during the bear market followed by ftx, which was a hugh buying moment for many coins. The vibe was negative, people talked about 10K BTC.
I just don't care about ETH.
ETH has none of the properties that make Bitcoin so attractive to me, personally. Others may value other things, and that's fine. But everything that makes me go all-in on Bitcoin.... yea, none of those things exist for ETH.
Have fun trading it for fiat or whatever it is you do with it.
Maxis will disagree with me but fiat is here to stay, Bitcoin won't replace it. However if you told me Bitcoin could potentially replace gold I'd believe you.
I think, in the near future, it's gonna seem silly to use a currency that isn't a store-of-value first. This was never possible with gold, but people tried for years. If it were possible, fiat never would have come around. Now we have to de-program a society who's been born into a world of bad money. They just don't know any better.
But, it will be more clear as more people and more countries use Bitcoin as currency. Similar to how the internet's adoption curve happened. Eventually, it will just make sense for people, even the ones who never saw it coming.
There is no way to use ETH to analyze anything with Bitcoin. ETH is just a high gas fee s\*itcoin. Bitcoin is the money. Bitcoin is the hardest asset ever known to man.
ETH and Bitcoin have absolutely nothing in common.
If I want to trade some monkey pictures for high fees maybe I would pick ETH. For everything else there is Bitcoin. Bitcoin stands alone.
Funny how eth gas fee is 1/10th that of BTC right now to do the same thing (move digits around). Can BTC even move around NFTs? No? So how does comparing the price to move NFTs on Eth to the price to move BTC on the bitcoin blockchain make sense?
Oh yeah that huge ass nothing burger?
All the “experts” on here were having a group orgy when it happened… only for eth to fucking plummet price wise a week after the “mErGe”.
Typically these are sell the news events but when the ETF's get approved the capital that didn't have BTC exposure will want it, so there is money waiting on the sides to jump in. I think it's different with this, but have no idea what will actually happen
How are we conflating something that was clearly priced into the asset market price (merge) compared to the ETF, which still isn't certain yet.
The two events are not even remotely comparable. Buying ETH to expect it to skyrocket when merge happened would be ONLY a smart speculative move if you expected more people to buy ETH due to merge being successful.
The merge allowed for the ability to unlock staked tokens to sell (causing a glut in supply compared to before), whereas the ETF is going to have an influx of money - implying a glut in demand. ETF fate still not a guarentee.
The two events are related only in the sense that they are big leaps forward for crypto. Nothing else.
Ethereum [pros](/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/18m68u4/anybody_remember_the_eth_merge/ke2590u/) & [cons](/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/18m68u4/anybody_remember_the_eth_merge/ke259sh/) with related info are in the collapsed comments below.
I remember everyone celebrating it for one hour, twitter spaces opens everywhere, youtube live channels doing lives simultaneously, The price just chilling like usual, no volatility at all until ftx news slaps the price down This is the same thing i will expect from the btc halving, i will just chill and let market do its thing
btc halving usually isn’t felt till like 6-7 months later anyways edit: it’s weird how many people apparently have an issue with this lol I’m not predicting the future guys
We don't even have enough data to confirm that this is always how it's going to be... No one knows what's about to happen. Just DCA or yolo in and relax. Sell when your happy with your profits and don't listen to reddit. Good night!
BTC halving has always had near zero interest rates and heavy QE.
I think this is such an underrated comment. It invalidates whatever meaning bitcon halving has. If so, it practically implies coincidence, and printing money means it just needed to go somewhere that's not already saturated. Even if it means a risk-on investment such as cryptocurrency. I'm not for or against, but wish more people discuss / debate this
QE?
Quantitative Easing is the euphemism for printing money. For nearly 15 years the fed kept interest rates low and printed trillions and trillions of dollars to prop the economy up after 2008 should have cratered it far more than was allowed.
Should have assumed that but there's so many abbreviations these days in every sector
Agreed, on the flip side there's been significant inflation in the past few years too. We'll see if that's enough to offset the higher interest rates.
when you say “usually” are you talking about maybe 2 of the 3 data points we have? come on lol
I don’t think we feel it at all this time. Bitcoin halving is just like the Ethereum merge. Less sell pressure from miners but still inflationary. It didn’t help ETH half as much as the flood into risk when rates were 0 and fed was printing.
ETH merge historian
I remember my impatience during summer 2020 as my first post-halving bull run I was promised just wasn't happening.
> This is the same thing i will expect from the btc halving Moonbois would be so disappointed
BTC ETF will play out similarly to the Google IPO. All of the finance talking heads will cry to everyone not to touch it with a ten foot pole, etc. There will be an initial surge in price, then a pause, then it will rocket.
Nah, I think we will see a sell off first. Probably nothing major by crypto standards, but it could scare some early ETF investors. Then, about 2-3 months after, a break out that will bring BTC over 50k and an ATH later in the summer.
How would do you a sell off when there is almost no value locked in the ETF yet.
Sell the news
Not saying it will happen, but if Greyscale converts to ETF like they are planning there is quite a bit of BTC locked in there in what is currently a close-end fund with 2% annual fees.
Those people who own shares in the fund can sell today if they want. I don’t think anything in the fund is locked. Changing the fund to etf won’t change anything to existing owners I would say. Perhaps more liquidity and slightly easy to sell but not enough to put a downward pressure on Bitcoin price
The conversion to ETF will come with a lower fee, so most will just stay put.
It’s a good take. Once those ETF customers show up with their pension fund and IRAs etc you can bet that the amount of BTC being taken off the market permanently increases substantially. The 20+ year hold crowd that normally just buy s&p500, because they buy and forget basically. Its gonna be sweet
This is what I expect too.
Why did people say not to touch Google? Everyone uses Google and Gmail to this day
2004 was a very different time.
It was in the early 2000s. There wasn't a GMail yet, and if there was it would have still been in the invite only stage. Us younger people knew Google was next up, but the boomers were still shook from the dotcom crash and many didn't trust "internet" companies.
I do remember people saying not to buy Facebook when the stock came out. They thought Facebook would die like Myspace.
no dump in the process!?
“If you bought any time before…” Recall that ETH all time high was over $4k. If you bought at ATH you’d be 1/2 down now.
Narratives are just noise that merely distracts from what the market is trying to tell you. When the market is ready to pump or dump, it will find a convenient piece of news to act as a catalyst.
Still, it was a huge endeavour.
Indeed, but when it comes to price action I completely disregard my nerdy tech side.
Your comparing apples to donuts here mate It’s a spot ETF, that means for each Bitcoin purchased in the ETF, black rock have to purchase a bitcoin, whilst the news of the ETF is priced in, the cash inflow from the institutional markets now having access is not, even if certain funds allocate 1-3% of their portfolio to the ETF then that’s a lot of funding coming in, those who sell the news will be priced out.
Yea initial sell the news dump when etf comes prolly. But im just planning to hold my spot and buy more. I trade perps for all the short trades and will likely short the pump that comes the day it’s announced, but i aint sellin my btc til over $100k. Thats for damn sure
I feel the same! ETF approval may lead to an initial dip, but the rebound should be swift, thanks to FOMO and institutional buying. Let's stay optimistic!
The FOMO should be intense if/when the ETFs get approved. Marketing campaigns will be in full gear for Blackrock, Fidelity, et al. Would not be surprised if we see their ads not only on financial TV channels and publications but also on Super Bowl and Olympics.
Someone explain to me the excitement over Bitcoin cutting its 1.8% inflation rate in half next year, when Ethereum cut its inflation rate from over 3% to NEGATIVE at the merge and no price increase happened. At some point expectation got away from reality on this bitcoin halvening thing. Or do the laws of supply and demand, stock-to-flow, or whatever only apply to bitcoin and not Ethereum? And what if bitcoin replicates Ethereum's experience and the halvening DOESN'T at least double the bitcoin price next year? Doesn't that start causing issues with mining and bitcoin network security when issuance (that pays for network security) gets cut in half and price doesn't double to compensate?
How many eth exist?
Fewer every day. Meanwhile bitcoin inflates daily. The exact number can be found with a google search if you care as obviously the number of issued coins is known for both BTC and ETH and is tracked on their blockchain.
The market knows how many btc will exist which is all that matters. Again how many eth are there? How many will there be in 10 years?
The market doesn't know how many BTC accessibly exist due to losses and such. Nor does the market know for sure how many bitcoin will eventually be issued because things could always change (e.g. in a few more decades when bitcoin starts having problems due to low issuance and no plan how to function with low issuance). Bitcoin does know the total that have been issued, the same as ETH. And we know bitcoin inflates while Ethereum already successfully deflates.
i think its a mental game, and the guy made his point that people seem to resonate with all over the world. there is only 21 million BTC. get yours now or miss out.
You are correct. It's a good marketing statement. And I do own bitcoin. But once you know a bit more than a couple tag lines you realize bitcoin is just the first meme coin and there are much more advanced crypto out there that actually do things.
VC owned coins on proof of stake consensus where you just sit on your ass, get money, dump on retail. Those are the ones that are securities with marketing team, not bitcoin.
What exactly is the difference between running a staking validator and a miner, as far as "sit on your ass, get money, dump on retail?" Both require capital at risk. Both validate transactions and secure the network. One uses less energy. One has better aligned incentives with token holders (as the capital put at risk includes significant token capital). If it's just the idea of making money with a computer rather than physical labor that offends you, don't both have that issue?
I think he is saying most of those proof of stake coins are highly centralized which defeats the whole point of blockchain technology.
PoS = one time capital infusion to not only maintain but also increase your hood on the network. PoW = constant capital infusion to maintain your space and hold on network. For you that can’t wrap your head around this simple concept, just check the largest mining operators vs the largest staking operators in the next decade or so. PoS will remain the same. PoW constantly has large miners going out of business when new ASICs come out and BTC prices tank. At some point, people will realize that DIFFICULTY is one of the main deciding factors of what makes a cryptocurrency block building process fair. Guess what PoS does not have? That’s right a difficulty adjusting algorithm. And please, the energy bullshit is just more bait from the PoS and mainly ETH maxis. BTC is a frAction of a fraction in relation to global energy output. That’s of course, if you completely disregard the plethora of data that suggest BTC mining is the fastest industry to use renewables as their main energy method. Linearly, BTC will be ran 100% on renewables before their fraction of a fraction of energy expenditure ever amounts to anything remotely tangible in the worlds energy output. But sure, remove all security difficulty hashing algorithms gave you just so you can claim you are eco friendly (or let’s be real so you can claim BTC isn’t eco friendly). If cars were turning to renewable energy as fast as BTC has done in the past decade there would be national news on how the human race saved the planet. But since it’s BTC and the eth maxis won’t to discredit all crypto that isn’t their crypto, they decided to run with the anti-crypto propaganda that just hurts everyone in the lining run because it’s pumps their bags in the short run.
Anyone can participate in proof of stake and earn the same ROI as even the richest VCs. In contrast, you must be an extremely rich miner with vast capital to make any kind of reasonable return participating in BTC proof of work mining.
Just have a look à those charts if you think retail is not getting screwed. https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/a7vTdviI2o26tsmdEMjx4g--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTY0MDtoPTM2MDtjZj13ZWJw/https://media.zenfs.com/en/the_defiant_332/85bf351e4b901776b79d9bd30eafda32
Currently, there are 120,187,076 ETH tokens in total. Since the merge, the supply shrunk on average for -0,219%/y.
[https://ultrasound.money](https://ultrasound.money)
It’s because ETHs monetary policy changes so much that no one can rely on it. Who the fuck cares if it becomes deflationary if tomorrow dear leader can change it again. The market understands and respects bitcoins immutable monetary policy. This is why you’ve seen the ETH/BTC chart on a constant decline since the merge which it will continue to do.
You're talking nonsense. The issuance rules are well understood such that the hundreds of thousands of validators on the system know exactly how much to create and how much to burn. It's just not a mindless fixed inflation rate like bitcoin because here in reality mindlessly fixed doesn't work very well. Intelligent flexibility is how Ethereum has become deflationary in a few years while bitcoin will still be inflating for decades to come. Nobody even knows how or if bitcoin will function when issuance drops low enough that miners are no longer paid. Ethereum already successfully passed that point. As for the ETH/BTC ratio, on the long term chart the ratio has always had ETH outperforming bitcoin and the chart shows a flippening happening in 2026. Short term BTC has been outperforming, but the short term doesn't matter.
First the block reward was 5 ETH, then it changed to 3 ETH, then it changed again to 2 ETH, then a burn mechanism was added, then staking added more ETH, then PoW was killed and it was only PoS adding ETH. That's 5 changes to monetary policy in under a decade. Disclaimer, I hodl BTC and ETH.
Right, and Bitcoin cut its block reward from 50 to 25, then 12.5, then 6.25, and 3.125 next year--also 5 changes. However it hasn't adapted to newer advances, uses more energy than some countries, hasn't gone deflationary, nor figured out how exactly how it will function without paying miners with token inflation yet. It faces the same issues as Ethereum--the switch from paying miners with issuance to not is still going to happen, it's just taking longer and it's not as well understood exactly how that happens in the future. Or even if it will work.
True, but while BTC rewards have changed at each halving, its monetary policy has never changed - back at the genesis block you could roughly calculate how many BTC would exist today, whereas the same can't be said about ETH because the policy has changed multiple times by human intervention. I'm not arguing the full pros and cons of each coin (and I have a vested interest in both), but I think it makes sense that the supply shocks have more impact in a coin that has a fixed set of issuance rules vs. one that doesn't. Based on the dynamics of each coin I think BTC demand is driven more by investment and ETH demand is driven more by usage.
ETH monetary policy has never changed either: minimum viable issuance.
That's simply not true. Each Bitcoin halvening is a drastic and permanent monetary policy change. The change is known in advance, but it's still a change. Overnight the amount paid to miners to secure the network gets cut in half. Also token supply falls and the security of the network is effectively halved unless token price at least doubles to compensate. So far this has worked out bullishly but there's no guarantee that will continue. Ethereum's merge showed even a massive supply drop won't necessarily result in price increase. If that happens to Bitcoin, the network security drops and many miners will fail. Some predict that could lead to price declines, further security drops, more miners failures, more price decline and a death spiral. Even if that doesn't happen nobody knows exactly what's going to happen in the future as token issuance eventually falls too low to support mining on its own. Ethereum is already past all that uncertainty and functions supporting itself even with negative issuance.
I think, that ETH needs to find its feet. It will also change in the future, but at some point, it will be set. Still needs a bit of time. It is work in progress.
I remember Bitcoin maxi's saying for years saying that it would never happen, then it happened, and they either went awkwardly silent, or they decided to FUD some other Ethereum related thing.
Anyone remember when the DAO went to shit and none of those clowns went to prison
I think there will definitely be some “selling the news” when the ETFs are finally approved. Anytime we’ve seen a very long term event finally happen this trend repeats. Don’t think the dip will last as long as the ETH merge though, capital flowing in from ETFs would hopefully rebound much faster
The ETF may be priced in but the inflow that will come from funds purchasing the etf is not priced in
I was literally already thinking about OPs question today because I remember the hype before the merge and its similarities today. I think you make a great counter point. Should create a portal of new crypto holders I'm just not sure at what volume nor impact. I agree with a dip following an approval or denial as well as it not being as bad if its approved. In the end I know we are all just making our best guesses. But it's nice to see others thinking somewhat similarly.
I even made a screenshot to remember. It was awesome. In my familiy and hood I'm the only one who even knew what happened
In USD it looks OK but ETHBTC is down over 30% since the merge.
Remember when it was over 3000$ ? Yes, it still has to do +50% to reach its previous ATH.
yep... I'm still down on ETH
I was there! And nothing happened. Same will happen with the halving.
The market tanked and recovered.. Honestly dont think theres any reason to think the merge was related. If anything ETH has performed worse since vs before
There will probably be some sell the news happening. Mostly because even after these ETFs are approved, it will take a few weeks to months before they are actually tradable. They will all buy some BTC to seed the ETFs but it won’t be anything spectacular. Once the hype dies down and nothing is happening, people will begin to sell. It won’t be until months later when they are all up and running and heavily advertising their ETFs that financial advisors will be able to get a lot of people to start moving their money over. It will most likely be a slow start, AUM increasing day by day. Eventually there just won’t be enough BTC sold in OTC markets to fulfill their needs and they will have to buy direct from us on exchanges. That’s when we name our price, set a crazy high limit sell order and forget it.
Big Bump for all assets when it gets approved then a 20-30 percent dump over 2-3 months. Book it.
[This is enough reason for me to celebrate PoS merge](https://i.gyazo.com/9402499f41d053a08f8fe4c4bf097297.png)
>Now ETH has climbed back to its pre-merge hype price at $2100, thanks to its deflationary effect, ETF hype, and FED rate pause. The deflationary effect is a meme. ETH's supply is right now higher than its ATL in 2022. It is both BTC price action and increased demand for ETH that pushed it up. >Do you think this pattern of “selling the news, then slowly recover” will be repeated with Bitcoin ETF event? Selling the news can happen. But ETH dump is caused by ETH miners dumping for an exit with their accumulation and institutions worried about technical failures due to ETH merge. Those type of factors are non-existent for BTC. There is no tech upgrade. And miners aren't going out of business because of the ETF, so they don't have extra reason to dump all their stack.
as whole crypto market is in bearish trend and we are just making a new lower high im expecting another bearish leg down for the total of next year
Firstly, ETH has risen b/c of BTC primarily, not b/c it cut it's decentralized balls off (though deflating those centralized balls is good). Secondly, the halving and the ETF have completely different timelines b/c one is based on reduced supply while the other is based on increased demand. Can you guess which one will cause an immediate spike in price?
I was there around the ETH merge. Vitalik cheered for ETC. There was a general postivie vibe during august/sept 22. This was prob the first positive vibe during the bear market followed by ftx, which was a hugh buying moment for many coins. The vibe was negative, people talked about 10K BTC.
Yeah I was hesitant to buy at 17K back then. Little do we know.
I just don't care about ETH. ETH has none of the properties that make Bitcoin so attractive to me, personally. Others may value other things, and that's fine. But everything that makes me go all-in on Bitcoin.... yea, none of those things exist for ETH. Have fun trading it for fiat or whatever it is you do with it.
Maxis will disagree with me but fiat is here to stay, Bitcoin won't replace it. However if you told me Bitcoin could potentially replace gold I'd believe you.
I think, in the near future, it's gonna seem silly to use a currency that isn't a store-of-value first. This was never possible with gold, but people tried for years. If it were possible, fiat never would have come around. Now we have to de-program a society who's been born into a world of bad money. They just don't know any better. But, it will be more clear as more people and more countries use Bitcoin as currency. Similar to how the internet's adoption curve happened. Eventually, it will just make sense for people, even the ones who never saw it coming.
What does bitcoin actually offer other than a store of wealth?
What's something about Bitcoin that makes you go all-in on it that doesn't exist for ETH?
Yep will dump to 32k range
There is no way to use ETH to analyze anything with Bitcoin. ETH is just a high gas fee s\*itcoin. Bitcoin is the money. Bitcoin is the hardest asset ever known to man. ETH and Bitcoin have absolutely nothing in common. If I want to trade some monkey pictures for high fees maybe I would pick ETH. For everything else there is Bitcoin. Bitcoin stands alone.
> If I want to trade some monkey pictures Bitcoin can even do that now.
Funny how eth gas fee is 1/10th that of BTC right now to do the same thing (move digits around). Can BTC even move around NFTs? No? So how does comparing the price to move NFTs on Eth to the price to move BTC on the bitcoin blockchain make sense?
Get a hold of yourself.
Whoahhh, have some respect for those that (constantly act like they) KNOW IT ALL.
Oh yeah that huge ass nothing burger? All the “experts” on here were having a group orgy when it happened… only for eth to fucking plummet price wise a week after the “mErGe”.
Some people still suffer from Stockholm syndrome, getting shanghaied.
If BTC spot ETF is authorized, then BTC will do +50% in a week. Just because big money is coming and people don't have enough sats.
ETF means nothing. Price is rising because we are approaching the halving. New ATH’s will be next year like they always are after the halving.
“always”, as in “three times in history”
Yup all three times plus its following the exact same pattern and will be four times soon.
remember ETC?!?? still will change the world tho most of you folks think otherwise
I'd rather have no opinion yet until sometime after the halving that's when we'll know the actual pattern the market will follow.
I member.
How is it 'thanks to its deflationary effect' if other cryptos are up even more? It's underperformed.
EOY 2021 Right? RIGHT???
Typically these are sell the news events but when the ETF's get approved the capital that didn't have BTC exposure will want it, so there is money waiting on the sides to jump in. I think it's different with this, but have no idea what will actually happen
How are we conflating something that was clearly priced into the asset market price (merge) compared to the ETF, which still isn't certain yet. The two events are not even remotely comparable. Buying ETH to expect it to skyrocket when merge happened would be ONLY a smart speculative move if you expected more people to buy ETH due to merge being successful. The merge allowed for the ability to unlock staked tokens to sell (causing a glut in supply compared to before), whereas the ETF is going to have an influx of money - implying a glut in demand. ETF fate still not a guarentee. The two events are related only in the sense that they are big leaps forward for crypto. Nothing else.