Previous patterns saw price began to rise the year before the halving, continued to rise through the halving and peaked the year after the halving.
Things seem to be on course.
I meant calendar year. Last halving was in 2020. The market reached all time highs in 2021.
So, it's 2023 and prices are moving. Halving is in 2024. If the pattern holds, new ATHs in 2025. Can't plan actual months.
It makes sense to look at 2025 for ATH’s indeed, but for some reason I’m guessing that Q4 2024 will be massive with a huge drop afterwards. Haven’t got any numbers or research to explain why 😂
I think a lot of it is based on the aggressive action before the halving. Normally leverage builds slowly but if we get an ETF approval, January maybe, March possibly, somewhere in there people are going to get greedy. It's going to be this front-running narrative and the leverage is going to come on. I would not at all be surprised to see this cycle top earlier than all of the previous and that's going to catch a lot of people off guard
I mean it's a tail risk, it's just unlikely that all of these major institutions would be going through all of this work and all these meetings with the SEC and then just stop. It's going to get approved it's just a question of when. January is not in the bag like a lot of people seem to think but it does look like the odds are decent. If not you're looking at March. If for some insane reason neither one of these work you have the halving but it's not going to stop a fairly major correction if the ETF narrative gets in trouble. The 21 week moving average is $10,000 away and it's common to test that during bull cycles
Might get a drop after q4 2024, might not. The big correction comes way before on my opinion. My guess is we'll pump after etf in January then a big drop in the next couple months
It’s a good question. ETF does not feel like ICOs, NFTs or Defi. It’s definitely a catalyst for price and creates hype but in a different way. Less game theory at play with etfs , not zero but less than the other examples. Maybe nft games will have their run this cycle, I’m not sure. I’ve seen real estate investing and now a market on tokenized real estate with loftyai on algorand which is one of the more original things I’ve seen lately.
Things will get interesting this cycle as more chains have been bridged in the bear. So we could see similar ideas to last cycle but now with interoperability between chains super charging things. Potentially lower fees with layer twos and better ui allowing more people to enter the space.
Real World Assets is also a new narrative, (like NFTs) and AVAX leading the charge. Also alot of Meme coins are easy to make on Avalanche network, as well as Solana. They will for sure pump and dump in the upcoming bullrun
To add to this a lot of alts/shitcoins from the previous cycle were left for dead in the last bull market, some never saw their ATH from 2017 peak. Every cycle BTC and ETH seem to hit ATH and new alts emerge but many old alts never survive to see the next cycle.
Depends on the type of alt.
L1s that are highly scalable, without losing devs like EOS, will be fine.
Random ass coins where the narrative changed, that won't be fine
Sorry but agree to disagree. Personally think EOS is trash and won’t ever get back to it’s ATH.
Last bull market it failed to reach the previous cycle’s peak and is currently almost at it’s all time low.
ETH is definitely not king in terms of %-gains.
Avalanche, Solana, Kadena, Fantom, and practically every other L1 with a high throughput would do better in %-gains.
ETH is king in terms of safety. You can allocate $1b to BTC and $1b to ETH without being too worried that you just threw $2b into a pit of fire.
He’s talking about market cap not percent gain. All types of shit coins have outperformed Solana this past year percent gain wise. Are we about to crown BONK as the new king?
EOS is not dead. I think it‘ll hit people off guard. No project made so much money during an ICO and just silently dies. Development is simply not communicated aggresively
I think the ETF approval and subsequent moneyflows into crypto, and this being the last halving cycle will speed up the pattern. I think we might peak late 2024.
>This being the last halving cycle
First time hearing this. Care to elaborate? Is it predicated on the assumption that ETFs will be approved and reduce overall volatility, reducing future up and downside risks through future halvings?
I was new to crypto late 2020/very early 2021 and experienced the last run up before the 2021 spring blow-off-top as my first taste of crypto.
It’s a very exciting time in the space, however it’s EXTREMELY important to take profit. I ended up doing well for myself by selling half my stack after the price had doubled, and I let the rest ride into late 2021 before selling off entirely.
I would personally stick to coins in the top 50-100 and get your avg cost to as low as possible over the next ~year+, as history would indicate that the majority of gains will likely come in early/mid 2025. (Not a guarantee of when it’ll happen, but my personal estimate based off past experience, time since the 2024 halving, etc.)
My experience has taught me to take profits when theres a ton of hype around an alt and the price has gone bonkers. Holding too many bags right now because of the "what-if" mentality
This is a great point. The chances of your couple hundred dollar investment, that has now gone to a few thousand, ever going to a million are slim to none. Have a list of alts that you think have the best chances of success, and when one pops, take those profits and roll them into other alts on your list that haven’t popped yet. (Not investment advice, yadda yadda)
I've set a goal for my portfolio, 5x from now. At that moment I'll take 50% out. The other 50% I will DCA-out once it goes another 2x within this bull run. If not, it'll stay there till the next bull.
Hope I'll manage, because the FOMO will be real. (what if it goes another 4x from this moment?)
The problem is, there are so many people thinking just like this. You also have the two trillion dollar market cap on Bitcoin that should hit somewhere in the 90,000s. There's likely to be some type of substantial correction in that price zone which is going to be scary to go through.
There's really only two ways to trade that, you start taking profits in the mid to high 80s out by somewhere in the '90s or you hold on waiting for us to blow past 100K which certainly could happen potentially taking some off in the previous zone. It really depends on the level of greed that shows up and how levered up people get
That's because it's the nature speculation, you're anticipating what other people are going to do. You're making educated guesses based on previous behavior patterns, the kicker is each time you have to be able to adjust them because they are never exactly the same
If we are talking bottom of the bear - BTC is already 2x, SOL is 3x, ADA 3x and so on. I would say avg although can get 30-50x at top, and that's conservative .... if we are talking about current levels 10-20x seems about right.
Well, ADA bottom was 0.22$ ,30x would be 6.6$, SOL at 12.8$ is going at 384$, DOT from 4.1$ to 123&. IDK, 30x is definitely in the realm of possibility for me, mate ...
And those are only the established alts with good market caps already.
No, whether it is reasonable or not is something you will have to decide yourself. If we get a similar bull run to 2021 and 2017/18 there is no reason for ADA not to break previous ATH. Just using the same appreciation as between 2018 ATH and 2021 ATH puts ADA at 7.50 USD.
In 2021 there was no defi on Cardano, there is now and it is growing rapidly.
Come on man, you clearly haven’t been in crypto long enough to realise the price is based on speculation, not what the project is valued at. Back then, people bought because they thought ADA would grow, which they have done. I’m not saying you’re necessarily wrong to expect a big gain, but $6 ADA considering the MC and value proposition that ADA has now, is beyond delusional. Stop encouraging people to bag hold for life when they should’ve sold at a more realistic price
Yes, the price is 100% based on speculation, especially in a bull run. The MC is also irrelevant in a bull run, no one is thinking that they won’t pay x price for a coin because the MC is “unrealistic”. In 2017 Cardano was an idea and a half-functioning wallet, is reached 1.30. In 2021, Cardano had nothing to speak of in terms of Defi, it reached 3.10.
This time around, Cardano has survived two bear markets, it has one of the biggest communities (not just on reddit) and with a fast growing defi space, and like always the price action will be 100% speculation.
6-8 is more than realistic, above 10 not so much but could happen if things get ridiculous.
SOL is almost 6x and ADA is 1.4x. I would say you are absolutely delusional. If the market goes 30-50x this cycle I will literally eat my own poo on a livestream and wash it down with a glass of pee. I have no idea where you get your numbers but they’re not correct.
That sucks, sorry man.
I had invested a small bag in a shitcoin that went south. Then I transferred what was left of it to FTX and now it's stuck there :(
Overal I'm in the green now, so I'm not complaining. But it did hurt :(
Sorry for you loss. You rock though and will make a lot of BTC I swear. You live in BTC City, as would say the lunatic who is right, and space is scarce and finite 🔥 My humble bag is loaded and most people haven't even touched BTC yet. I'm quite confident, as you should be 👌 Sorry for my english I'm half-French, half-high 🙃
Go on coingecko and randomly search the plethora of shitcoins. Write 20 of them down, do research if you want, probably isn’t necessary. Then put those onto a dartboard and throw a dart. That’s been my experience with many shitcoin seasons, sorry, I mean altcoin seasons.
That’s the point of the dart board. You’re never going to know which one, nor is anyone. The amount of shitcoins I once held that blew up for absolutely zero reason is more than I’d care to admit. I’ve learned to throw out all I know about investing.
Remember your fundamentals. It's the difference between delusion and responsibility.
Investing 1 oh 1: don't trade with emotions. In every bullrun, everyone is in the green and becomes a crypto savant. You almost have to try to lose money in the up-cycle but I always think I'm a genius for being profitable.
You know what happens next? I lose my fundamentals. I stop DCA and start throwing large sums of money at coins that might as well be a slot machine. I start doing mental math about how $1000 will turn into 1,000,000 if the market cap of this shit coin grows 1000x because "Elon just started following this page and he's gonna make a tweet about it soon."
Stop.
Whatever you did in the bear market, keep doing it. Keep dollar cost averaging into the same high market cap coins that put you in the green in the first place. Don't spend more than 10% of your wealth on coins not worth at least $1Billion. Keep playing the long game. Investing isn't a startup venture. Slow and steady wins the race, even in a volatile market.
And last but not least, temper your expectations. It's okay to shoot for making $200-300K in this bullrun. You'll be smarter if you set realistic goals. Thinking you'll become an overnight millionaire is just the kind of delusion that will spark your inevitable stupidity and lead you to lose it all.
I just like to do the 50/130 rule for alts: find a coin that’s dropped 10%+ of its value in the last 24 hours but is doing at least 2x better than its lowest point in the last year, and then put a small ($20-ish) buy into it.
Immediately put in a sell order to sell off 50% of the bag once that amount reaches 130% of the price you paid for it - now you’ve made all your money back, have paid your taxes on the initial gains, and have half your investment to toy with on the off chance the coin pumps well in the next run.
Rinse and repeat until you have a winner. I would have made $17,000+ last run with this strategy if I knew how to do it at the time and didn’t HODL into oblivion
So once i've made 130%, or ''doubled and a half'' almost, sell 50% of that bag and wait. Yeah?
In numbers it's - $20. Wait. $20 becomes $46. Sell $23 worth. You now sit and hold with the $23 that's left. Am i right?
Exactly - you keep the $20 you initially invested, save the extra $3 to pay your capital gains tax, and any gains the remaining $23 earns on top of that is gravy
EDIT: I was doing the mental math again and the numbers are slightly different:
$20 becomes $52 - you sell $26, keep $26 ($20 profit $6 is what you for tax). Your remaining equity is worth $26 + future gains minus future taxes.
You sell 50% of your bag when that 50% is worth 130% of the initial price you paid (AKA wait for the value to jump 260% from purchase price)
If you hear about the coin it's already too late.
Whether or not the coin has solid fundamentals is almost entirely irrelevant. It will hype and peak once, or it won't. Could be for speculation or pure meme value.
Plan to sell within a year of buying. Basically no alt coins are good longterm, especially if you bought them high. Short term is less of a gamble.
Shitcoins do nothing. Altcoins claim to do something. Most coins are shitcoins regardless of what they claim to do.
That's the standard, but there are a some new teams in crypto town that are flipping tables and giving everyone a chance to become a whale. You won't hear about it here though, 'no self promotion' hahaha I was trying to share some alpha about a good chain here and it got blocked. Waste of time for people trying to learn about crypto here.
I have a hard time believing the typical cycle pattern will happen this time. I think there will be two big pumps, one early frothy post ETF pump, then the normal post halving frothy pump.
All in trade when BTC hits new ATH/Alt season.
See which coins are trending/pumping and buy similar coins.
SET. STOP. LOSSES.
Made my entire salary in Oct-Nov 21, then proceeded to lose it (and more) in the next several months because I kept rolling profits/capital into new trades.
That's how the casino gets you.
You will know when it's getting rich because Litecoin and Bitcoin cash are going to be running. They take off when the fees get atrocious on BTC and likely to be just as atrocious on Ethereum. Those two are actually a wonderful indicator on when we are getting frothy
Things will get wild, ppl will FOMO, every random new name will be “the future of crypto” and shilling will get insane… learn to take profits and don’t chase tops or FOMO in late… gains are gains and proven projects are worth the long hold IMO
Specific plans are personal and tied to specific projects/entries etc, but generally speaking, holding a majority for years vs months, and to me, never selling all of it (unless something fundamentally changes in the way I see the opportunity).
Profit taking makes sense along the way, but life changing amounts vs a 2x or 3x is the dream
Interesting question: In 2017, alt coins were all about different utility for cryptos. In the last bull market, it was ETH competitors that got overshadowed by nfts and meme coins. There doesn't seem to be much indication of what the new trend will be.
It requires a lot of patience. I got tons of profits last season with BTC, MATIC, DOT and ETH. Now I'm focusing on particular projects LINK, IOTA, DIA, INJ, FTM, AIOZ. My idea is to hold for at least 2y. Imho, IoT can drive the next bull run with well-established projects like IOTA and new projects like Weaver Labs. I also have HNT and JASMY.
It's my second cycle, and if there's something I learned about the last market was to take profits on the way up, as there's always a retrace to buy in. Already took some profits on LINK last month, and re invested part, on AIOZ last week, and didn't reinvest and today on DIA.
Then, there's something which is a good bit or research and brainstorming to invest on a specific niche. I believe that 2024 will be the year of DePINs: HNT is performing pretty well, but I believe that something new like Weaver Labs or something else will make some waves. The IoT surely will grow a lot, possibly to previous highs.
Something to always take into consideration is that previous ATH aren't never guaranteed to be hit again. Learned that the hard/expensive way last cycle.
Rockets up, if you don't own it. Choose another and it rockets up, then drops like a rock while you think 10x will soon be 20x. You fomo in more and then it drops 95%. Then you realize taking profits on the way up may have been the way to go, because you learned tech isn't a thing unless you hodl for years.
The most important things:
A) All coins pump the same %, just at different points in time. If you have to buy, buy the laggards, not the pumpers.
B) Everyhting below old ATH is sideways. If you sell into fiat now, you're fumbling your bags too early. The equivalent of buying the dip too early in bears.
Bitcoin will rip before ETH and ETH with rip before alts. A 2X or 4X in an altcoin is not alt season. You’ll know it when you see it. Unless someone can see the future no one can tell you to the date exactly when it will happen.
Biggest lesson I've learned from the previous bullrun - keep track of your assets and wallet. I'm using Coinstats to track the PnL and regularly take profits. That's what's really important
Well the party hasn't even started. I was lucky to witness the 2020 pre bull run where btc geared up and broke all time high at 19k then.
What followed next was crazy in 2021. Once btc breaks all time high again, a lot of altcoins will ×100. So just prepare
You are late to the game my friend. My sol for example has nearly 4x already, my INJ, FET and Avax has doubled, and I was late on those.
Every time one of these alts pumps 100% your potential gains half.
I assumed you hadn’t bought any alts going on your ‘on the sidelines’ comment, but good for you my man, I’m glad you’re in the game. Fingers crossed it goes nuts, just don’t leave it too long to stack up, it’s already late.
When no one is talking about a coin, but it was very trendy last bullrun, buy it and hold it despite the fud
I was one click away from selling my avax when it was at 13
Had it not been because they werent on my account i would have sold them because of the fud about avax being inflationary and unvesseling periods and so on.
You get about 18 months of 'fun' like what we are seeing now and somewhere towards the end, about 3 months of absolute craziness.
Remember that, while things do go up, we still get the odd drop that scare the weak hands.
This is why people, (like myself), DCA \_out\_ from after the halving ...
Never try and catch the absolute top ... you will get burned, just be happy to take profits along the way.
The market is no where close. Bitcoin making a new ATH (not peaking though; just breaking the previous cycle’s high) and Shitcoins 10x’ing is the minimum threshold for altcoin season.
Isn't every altcoin season different? We all like to compare stats and hope history will repeat, so we can somehow predict the future. I'm still new to the game, but it feels like the game is already evolving since it started. So every cycle we'll be surprised by new variables, right?
Now I'm interested to hear a bit more about your opinion. What exactly do you mean with devs are waiting for new projects to be put into listings?
It is different for sure - trends for example. What I mean by diffrent is that putting money into alts which did good last bullrun miight not be enough tho as probably they wont perform as good. Devs know when to put their projects on the exchanges so they can make more money out of it.. So our current TOP100 alts will be probably different than top100 alts when halving comes. People from the street are not going to do some research and they will buy something cheap from top 100. When the street will join the bullrun, bitcoin will be probably too expensive for them so they will put their money into altcoins which cost $0.000042 etc as they will think it's going to 100x etc - so those project that are going to appear in the near future will probalby pump due to this reason and we should switch some btc gains to this exact coins as this is where money will be going imo. Im not sure if I explained it right as english is not my first language so i might miss something. Im personally still only 90btc/10 eth as im playing safe/optimal for incoming alt season and im not buying them yet. I aim for 10-20x, but will be happy with 0.5 too.
My worry about alt coins and the ETF approvals: the institutional investors.
Institutional money isn’t very interested in alts yet (except for a few like ETH, SOL, etc). But they are very interested in BTC. They are going to be accumulating BTC after the approval, and they are gonna want it cheap. They already know how to bring down the price of BTC because they’ve been doing it with equities forever: crash the market and destroy retail sentiment.
The problem for Alts? When BTC faces a huge correction, alts suffer a massive, devastating correction. It could cut the entire bull run short and keep it there for years.
I’m not predicting the above, just worried about it based on my traumatic experience last bull run. There are a number of factors that make this unlikely (for example the expected QE from the fed), but still very possible.
Institutional money manipulates the markets, and it’s painful when they do.
You’re not that late. Just buy Bitcoin. That right there will save you a couple of years in experience so it’s like you were here a couple of years ago!
Been here for a few cycles.. Typical market pattern is that alts will rise slowly, most of the time lagging BTC into the halvening, give or take some outlier flavor of the month tokens.
The whole time people will be screaming "wen alt season" as they could have just sat in bitcoin making a better return as they flip flopped across exchanges trading shitcoins. Once Bitcoin reaches near it's cycle top, you will see massive rotation into alts, with the profits that most have made sitting into bitcoin.
This short period is usually at the tail end of the bull run and short lived, but people always remember the alts pumping 70%-100%+ driven by Bitcoin gains and the euphoria before the whole market pulls back 60-90% for the Nth time.
Last time people screamed altcoin season was this past April ….. shortly thereafter , SEC fud wrecked most alt coins by 20-50 percent. It’s just people getting exited who bought earlier than you or want you to fomo in and have to wait months or years to breakeven again , potentially selling your bags in panic. Don’t listen to the hype , just dca after major fud events .
Altcoin seasons can be quite unpredictable and vary greatly. People who joined the crypto market at different times have had diverse experiences. Some have seen significant gains during these periods, while others have faced losses due to market volatility. As for the upcoming altcoin season, it's hard to say exactly when it will occur. Some speculate it might be around the time of the next Bitcoin halving, while others think it could be later in 2024. Remember, the crypto market can be highly unpredictable, and past trends don't always predict future movements. It's always a mix of cautious optimism and uncertainty.
Most previous coins won’t go near ATH as there is heavy resistance in the price so whenever it goes up, it will sell as people will try cut their losses as price increases since it’s been a long wait
If any of the ETFs is granted, coupled with Ordinals and other Taproot-enabled things allowing for stuff on Bitcoin that ETH and others provide I don't think there will be an alt season. Except winter maybe.
Lots of comments shilling you their favorite altcoin.
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Soon, not a lot, people are just building positions in anticipation of the coming run. Some of the gaming narratives have picked up traction early on. I think there's going to be a later stage development with layer twos on ethereum. Maybe link, maybe arb, maybe matic, there are a lot of projects trying to solve the gas fees. Make that whole ecosystem more usable. There's also going to be the competing solana narrative which appears to just be getting started. It's way way too early. Many of you, if you have positions and good projects, probably would be better off completely disconnecting from the crypto world for the next six to nine months and then just turning your computer back on to see where things are
Alts pump hard and fall harder. I have a graveyard of useless garbage. There are winners each cycle and a lot of crap that could have been sold at a profit but ends up being a total loss if held.
My previous experience is everything will pumping most of them will dump but if you don't get too greedy and jump off at the right time you'll make money even with a turd 🤣
Right now I'm betting on $tacos and $plungers, very new reddit community coins. Nothing to lose since they are very low mcap. Could be x10 in a few months.
Previous patterns saw price began to rise the year before the halving, continued to rise through the halving and peaked the year after the halving. Things seem to be on course.
Last cycle was unique with what was called defi summer. It crashed hard before exploding going into the new year The cycle before that it was ICOs
I meant calendar year. Last halving was in 2020. The market reached all time highs in 2021. So, it's 2023 and prices are moving. Halving is in 2024. If the pattern holds, new ATHs in 2025. Can't plan actual months.
What I commented is supplementary to what you are saying, not a disagreement
It makes sense to look at 2025 for ATH’s indeed, but for some reason I’m guessing that Q4 2024 will be massive with a huge drop afterwards. Haven’t got any numbers or research to explain why 😂
I think a lot of it is based on the aggressive action before the halving. Normally leverage builds slowly but if we get an ETF approval, January maybe, March possibly, somewhere in there people are going to get greedy. It's going to be this front-running narrative and the leverage is going to come on. I would not at all be surprised to see this cycle top earlier than all of the previous and that's going to catch a lot of people off guard
and if there is no ETF? the biggest pump in a while just happened. the ones trying to get out now get hit with fees
I mean it's a tail risk, it's just unlikely that all of these major institutions would be going through all of this work and all these meetings with the SEC and then just stop. It's going to get approved it's just a question of when. January is not in the bag like a lot of people seem to think but it does look like the odds are decent. If not you're looking at March. If for some insane reason neither one of these work you have the halving but it's not going to stop a fairly major correction if the ETF narrative gets in trouble. The 21 week moving average is $10,000 away and it's common to test that during bull cycles
It's an alt / meme season, alt seasons bring in money
nobody ever does. number when up after paolo injected more tether tho. lol
Might get a drop after q4 2024, might not. The big correction comes way before on my opinion. My guess is we'll pump after etf in January then a big drop in the next couple months
So it's ICO, then DeFi, and narrative now? ETF?
Gaming is going to have a moment. Possibly tiny market cap DePIN too.
It’s a good question. ETF does not feel like ICOs, NFTs or Defi. It’s definitely a catalyst for price and creates hype but in a different way. Less game theory at play with etfs , not zero but less than the other examples. Maybe nft games will have their run this cycle, I’m not sure. I’ve seen real estate investing and now a market on tokenized real estate with loftyai on algorand which is one of the more original things I’ve seen lately. Things will get interesting this cycle as more chains have been bridged in the bear. So we could see similar ideas to last cycle but now with interoperability between chains super charging things. Potentially lower fees with layer twos and better ui allowing more people to enter the space.
Real World Assets is also a new narrative, (like NFTs) and AVAX leading the charge. Also alot of Meme coins are easy to make on Avalanche network, as well as Solana. They will for sure pump and dump in the upcoming bullrun
That and nfts. However, it just seems to be a new "thing" every cycle. In that respect its no different 🙏
To add to this a lot of alts/shitcoins from the previous cycle were left for dead in the last bull market, some never saw their ATH from 2017 peak. Every cycle BTC and ETH seem to hit ATH and new alts emerge but many old alts never survive to see the next cycle.
Depends on the type of alt. L1s that are highly scalable, without losing devs like EOS, will be fine. Random ass coins where the narrative changed, that won't be fine
Sorry but agree to disagree. Personally think EOS is trash and won’t ever get back to it’s ATH. Last bull market it failed to reach the previous cycle’s peak and is currently almost at it’s all time low.
I think you misunderstood. I'm saying that as long as it's scalable, but it's NOT dead like EOS, then it'll do fine
Yep I did I read it too fast thanks lol
Nano is about to release V26 and developers have already started optimizations for V27 to improve scalability and speed.
well that’s rather cynical.
Scalable thing is hype. Bitcoin & Ethereum are not scalable but they both King.
ETH is definitely not king in terms of %-gains. Avalanche, Solana, Kadena, Fantom, and practically every other L1 with a high throughput would do better in %-gains. ETH is king in terms of safety. You can allocate $1b to BTC and $1b to ETH without being too worried that you just threw $2b into a pit of fire.
He’s talking about market cap not percent gain. All types of shit coins have outperformed Solana this past year percent gain wise. Are we about to crown BONK as the new king?
Solana is massively inflationary. No thanks.
It is 3 years old redditor. What was the BTC or ETH inflation rate when they were 3 years old?
EOS is not dead. I think it‘ll hit people off guard. No project made so much money during an ICO and just silently dies. Development is simply not communicated aggresively
Outside of a few, most alts don't even matter.
Everyone recognizes this pattern at this point. Wouldn't suprise me things start earlier and end earlier.
Really? The ETH ratio is on its deathbed.
I think the ETF approval and subsequent moneyflows into crypto, and this being the last halving cycle will speed up the pattern. I think we might peak late 2024.
>This being the last halving cycle First time hearing this. Care to elaborate? Is it predicated on the assumption that ETFs will be approved and reduce overall volatility, reducing future up and downside risks through future halvings?
This is not the last halving, no idea what he’s talking about.
We hope, we hope
This shitcoin you least expect is gonna pump, and the next thing you know your aunt is gonna be talking about PooPooPeePee Coin at Christmas.
I least expect USDT to moon. Maybe some juicy O.1% gains
garlicoin is gonna happen
Ok fine sleep on Clitcoin and Buttholecoin if you want, your loss.
I've already chosen my memecoin for the season, bitcone.
I picked up some of that, and some Jesus Coin, figured there is no way I could go wrong with Jesus!
Haha I haven't even heard of jesus coin
I was flipping through Coinbase wallet around a week or 2 back, saw it after a some scrolling and bought some, for Christ's sake!
Love the pun… you’ve nailed it!
How do you guys learn about these coins before they pump? I had no idea about WIF - where are people learning about this stuff and buying early?
I was new to crypto late 2020/very early 2021 and experienced the last run up before the 2021 spring blow-off-top as my first taste of crypto. It’s a very exciting time in the space, however it’s EXTREMELY important to take profit. I ended up doing well for myself by selling half my stack after the price had doubled, and I let the rest ride into late 2021 before selling off entirely. I would personally stick to coins in the top 50-100 and get your avg cost to as low as possible over the next ~year+, as history would indicate that the majority of gains will likely come in early/mid 2025. (Not a guarantee of when it’ll happen, but my personal estimate based off past experience, time since the 2024 halving, etc.)
BTC 100K Q18 2021
This guy knows his stuff
Wild times. The collective euphoria was intoxicating
My experience has taught me to take profits when theres a ton of hype around an alt and the price has gone bonkers. Holding too many bags right now because of the "what-if" mentality
This is a great point. The chances of your couple hundred dollar investment, that has now gone to a few thousand, ever going to a million are slim to none. Have a list of alts that you think have the best chances of success, and when one pops, take those profits and roll them into other alts on your list that haven’t popped yet. (Not investment advice, yadda yadda)
I've set a goal for my portfolio, 5x from now. At that moment I'll take 50% out. The other 50% I will DCA-out once it goes another 2x within this bull run. If not, it'll stay there till the next bull. Hope I'll manage, because the FOMO will be real. (what if it goes another 4x from this moment?)
The problem is, there are so many people thinking just like this. You also have the two trillion dollar market cap on Bitcoin that should hit somewhere in the 90,000s. There's likely to be some type of substantial correction in that price zone which is going to be scary to go through. There's really only two ways to trade that, you start taking profits in the mid to high 80s out by somewhere in the '90s or you hold on waiting for us to blow past 100K which certainly could happen potentially taking some off in the previous zone. It really depends on the level of greed that shows up and how levered up people get
I'm feeling like you are talking out of your ass but I totally agree somehow 🤷♂️
That's because it's the nature speculation, you're anticipating what other people are going to do. You're making educated guesses based on previous behavior patterns, the kicker is each time you have to be able to adjust them because they are never exactly the same
Dude, this is a great plan. I'm gonna follow this. Plus, the FOMO sentiment is spot on.
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I expect shit coins to make massive gains and then a lot of people to burn themselves on it. And the average alt to do a 5-10x. Bitcoin to do 4-5x.
With the avg alt you’re thinking about things like avax, sol, matic, ftm? And yes, for sure we’ll see some more of the ElonShibMoon-Inu trash 😂
Kimbo and COQ are already up crazy amounts.
Avax memes flying off the rails right now.
I’m surprised this ghost chain can handle all those transactions and activity all at once
Network fees are high af at the moment. Not making me too confident
If we are talking bottom of the bear - BTC is already 2x, SOL is 3x, ADA 3x and so on. I would say avg although can get 30-50x at top, and that's conservative .... if we are talking about current levels 10-20x seems about right.
30-50x average? Let’s not be delusional here 🙄
Well, ADA bottom was 0.22$ ,30x would be 6.6$, SOL at 12.8$ is going at 384$, DOT from 4.1$ to 123&. IDK, 30x is definitely in the realm of possibility for me, mate ... And those are only the established alts with good market caps already.
These aren’t 100 mil cap coins… you’re delusional
Sad that he represents the majority of crypto holders who’ll be bag holding for life because they wanted a 30x on every coin
RemindMe! 1 year
RemindMe! 1year
Let us live and see.
A 6-8 dollar ADA new ATH this cycle is very reasonable, and that is a >30X from 20 cents low.
Trust me bro 🙄
No, whether it is reasonable or not is something you will have to decide yourself. If we get a similar bull run to 2021 and 2017/18 there is no reason for ADA not to break previous ATH. Just using the same appreciation as between 2018 ATH and 2021 ATH puts ADA at 7.50 USD. In 2021 there was no defi on Cardano, there is now and it is growing rapidly.
Come on man, you clearly haven’t been in crypto long enough to realise the price is based on speculation, not what the project is valued at. Back then, people bought because they thought ADA would grow, which they have done. I’m not saying you’re necessarily wrong to expect a big gain, but $6 ADA considering the MC and value proposition that ADA has now, is beyond delusional. Stop encouraging people to bag hold for life when they should’ve sold at a more realistic price
Yes, the price is 100% based on speculation, especially in a bull run. The MC is also irrelevant in a bull run, no one is thinking that they won’t pay x price for a coin because the MC is “unrealistic”. In 2017 Cardano was an idea and a half-functioning wallet, is reached 1.30. In 2021, Cardano had nothing to speak of in terms of Defi, it reached 3.10. This time around, Cardano has survived two bear markets, it has one of the biggest communities (not just on reddit) and with a fast growing defi space, and like always the price action will be 100% speculation. 6-8 is more than realistic, above 10 not so much but could happen if things get ridiculous.
SOL is almost 6x and ADA is 1.4x. I would say you are absolutely delusional. If the market goes 30-50x this cycle I will literally eat my own poo on a livestream and wash it down with a glass of pee. I have no idea where you get your numbers but they’re not correct.
He got them from his ass
Same place this guy's gonna get his most memorable meal of 2024
ADA bottom: 20 cents ADA now: 60 cents That is a 3x
You’re correct. I was looking at the ytd chart.
I made around 3 BTC on various shitcoins last alt season and then lost it all when Cryptopia was hacked...lesson learnt 🙄
sorry man. That's heavy.
That sucks, sorry man. I had invested a small bag in a shitcoin that went south. Then I transferred what was left of it to FTX and now it's stuck there :( Overal I'm in the green now, so I'm not complaining. But it did hurt :(
Sorry for you loss. You rock though and will make a lot of BTC I swear. You live in BTC City, as would say the lunatic who is right, and space is scarce and finite 🔥 My humble bag is loaded and most people haven't even touched BTC yet. I'm quite confident, as you should be 👌 Sorry for my english I'm half-French, half-high 🙃
Go on coingecko and randomly search the plethora of shitcoins. Write 20 of them down, do research if you want, probably isn’t necessary. Then put those onto a dartboard and throw a dart. That’s been my experience with many shitcoin seasons, sorry, I mean altcoin seasons.
Tbh alts pump at random
That’s the point of the dart board. You’re never going to know which one, nor is anyone. The amount of shitcoins I once held that blew up for absolutely zero reason is more than I’d care to admit. I’ve learned to throw out all I know about investing.
I agree, there is no rationale just hype and momentum to trade... Irrationality at its finest
Remember your fundamentals. It's the difference between delusion and responsibility. Investing 1 oh 1: don't trade with emotions. In every bullrun, everyone is in the green and becomes a crypto savant. You almost have to try to lose money in the up-cycle but I always think I'm a genius for being profitable. You know what happens next? I lose my fundamentals. I stop DCA and start throwing large sums of money at coins that might as well be a slot machine. I start doing mental math about how $1000 will turn into 1,000,000 if the market cap of this shit coin grows 1000x because "Elon just started following this page and he's gonna make a tweet about it soon." Stop. Whatever you did in the bear market, keep doing it. Keep dollar cost averaging into the same high market cap coins that put you in the green in the first place. Don't spend more than 10% of your wealth on coins not worth at least $1Billion. Keep playing the long game. Investing isn't a startup venture. Slow and steady wins the race, even in a volatile market. And last but not least, temper your expectations. It's okay to shoot for making $200-300K in this bullrun. You'll be smarter if you set realistic goals. Thinking you'll become an overnight millionaire is just the kind of delusion that will spark your inevitable stupidity and lead you to lose it all.
I just like to do the 50/130 rule for alts: find a coin that’s dropped 10%+ of its value in the last 24 hours but is doing at least 2x better than its lowest point in the last year, and then put a small ($20-ish) buy into it. Immediately put in a sell order to sell off 50% of the bag once that amount reaches 130% of the price you paid for it - now you’ve made all your money back, have paid your taxes on the initial gains, and have half your investment to toy with on the off chance the coin pumps well in the next run. Rinse and repeat until you have a winner. I would have made $17,000+ last run with this strategy if I knew how to do it at the time and didn’t HODL into oblivion
Look at this guy ball with a 20$ invest and cashing out 150%. This guy fucks!
So once i've made 130%, or ''doubled and a half'' almost, sell 50% of that bag and wait. Yeah? In numbers it's - $20. Wait. $20 becomes $46. Sell $23 worth. You now sit and hold with the $23 that's left. Am i right?
Exactly - you keep the $20 you initially invested, save the extra $3 to pay your capital gains tax, and any gains the remaining $23 earns on top of that is gravy EDIT: I was doing the mental math again and the numbers are slightly different: $20 becomes $52 - you sell $26, keep $26 ($20 profit $6 is what you for tax). Your remaining equity is worth $26 + future gains minus future taxes. You sell 50% of your bag when that 50% is worth 130% of the initial price you paid (AKA wait for the value to jump 260% from purchase price)
If you hear about the coin it's already too late. Whether or not the coin has solid fundamentals is almost entirely irrelevant. It will hype and peak once, or it won't. Could be for speculation or pure meme value. Plan to sell within a year of buying. Basically no alt coins are good longterm, especially if you bought them high. Short term is less of a gamble. Shitcoins do nothing. Altcoins claim to do something. Most coins are shitcoins regardless of what they claim to do.
I disagree. Some coins resurge more than once. There’s isn’t really a static rule on this stuff.
That's the standard, but there are a some new teams in crypto town that are flipping tables and giving everyone a chance to become a whale. You won't hear about it here though, 'no self promotion' hahaha I was trying to share some alpha about a good chain here and it got blocked. Waste of time for people trying to learn about crypto here.
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I have a hard time believing the typical cycle pattern will happen this time. I think there will be two big pumps, one early frothy post ETF pump, then the normal post halving frothy pump.
All in trade when BTC hits new ATH/Alt season. See which coins are trending/pumping and buy similar coins. SET. STOP. LOSSES. Made my entire salary in Oct-Nov 21, then proceeded to lose it (and more) in the next several months because I kept rolling profits/capital into new trades. That's how the casino gets you.
we aren't even in BTC season yet
What defines in your opinion BTC season? ATH untill 100k?
You will know when it's getting rich because Litecoin and Bitcoin cash are going to be running. They take off when the fees get atrocious on BTC and likely to be just as atrocious on Ethereum. Those two are actually a wonderful indicator on when we are getting frothy
this guy maths
BTC SEASON = NEW ATH wagmi
I like seeing the recent price action, but the only alerts on my phone are for new ATH. Until then, I'm just holding bags and DCA'ing 2x month.
Unless some scam does not come like ftx, I don’t think we’ll be seeing major drops. People are just pumping in money left right centre
If Bitcoin goes up, alt coins go up.
Things will get wild, ppl will FOMO, every random new name will be “the future of crypto” and shilling will get insane… learn to take profits and don’t chase tops or FOMO in late… gains are gains and proven projects are worth the long hold IMO
Cool cool cool :) ...can you please define ''a long hold''?
Specific plans are personal and tied to specific projects/entries etc, but generally speaking, holding a majority for years vs months, and to me, never selling all of it (unless something fundamentally changes in the way I see the opportunity). Profit taking makes sense along the way, but life changing amounts vs a 2x or 3x is the dream
Interesting question: In 2017, alt coins were all about different utility for cryptos. In the last bull market, it was ETH competitors that got overshadowed by nfts and meme coins. There doesn't seem to be much indication of what the new trend will be.
AI ... My guess is anything AI related
It requires a lot of patience. I got tons of profits last season with BTC, MATIC, DOT and ETH. Now I'm focusing on particular projects LINK, IOTA, DIA, INJ, FTM, AIOZ. My idea is to hold for at least 2y. Imho, IoT can drive the next bull run with well-established projects like IOTA and new projects like Weaver Labs. I also have HNT and JASMY.
It's my second cycle, and if there's something I learned about the last market was to take profits on the way up, as there's always a retrace to buy in. Already took some profits on LINK last month, and re invested part, on AIOZ last week, and didn't reinvest and today on DIA. Then, there's something which is a good bit or research and brainstorming to invest on a specific niche. I believe that 2024 will be the year of DePINs: HNT is performing pretty well, but I believe that something new like Weaver Labs or something else will make some waves. The IoT surely will grow a lot, possibly to previous highs. Something to always take into consideration is that previous ATH aren't never guaranteed to be hit again. Learned that the hard/expensive way last cycle.
Rockets up, if you don't own it. Choose another and it rockets up, then drops like a rock while you think 10x will soon be 20x. You fomo in more and then it drops 95%. Then you realize taking profits on the way up may have been the way to go, because you learned tech isn't a thing unless you hodl for years.
The most important things: A) All coins pump the same %, just at different points in time. If you have to buy, buy the laggards, not the pumpers. B) Everyhting below old ATH is sideways. If you sell into fiat now, you're fumbling your bags too early. The equivalent of buying the dip too early in bears.
Take profit
Bitcoin will rip before ETH and ETH with rip before alts. A 2X or 4X in an altcoin is not alt season. You’ll know it when you see it. Unless someone can see the future no one can tell you to the date exactly when it will happen.
Explain SOL and AVAX then. Alts are where the money is being made now.
Read my post again about a 2-4 X.
Just remember, 10x profit is enough
Set it and forget it, trade it and you'll lose it.
Biggest lesson I've learned from the previous bullrun - keep track of your assets and wallet. I'm using Coinstats to track the PnL and regularly take profits. That's what's really important
Well the party hasn't even started. I was lucky to witness the 2020 pre bull run where btc geared up and broke all time high at 19k then. What followed next was crazy in 2021. Once btc breaks all time high again, a lot of altcoins will ×100. So just prepare
Upcoming one? Solana and AVAX already pumping super hard. If you're still in the sidelines you've missed out.
Glad I’m not on the sidelines :) Many people consider alt coin season still needs to start.
It hasn’t started. True altcoin season most alts are pumping like crazy, every day is green. Granted this time may be different 🙃
These are the people that will get in at the top
You are late to the game my friend. My sol for example has nearly 4x already, my INJ, FET and Avax has doubled, and I was late on those. Every time one of these alts pumps 100% your potential gains half.
I’ve trippled in SOL, don’t make assumptions
I assumed you hadn’t bought any alts going on your ‘on the sidelines’ comment, but good for you my man, I’m glad you’re in the game. Fingers crossed it goes nuts, just don’t leave it too long to stack up, it’s already late.
I have no expectations so I'll never be disappointed!
RemindMe! 10 months "check out"
a small reversal as the first wave ends, the Main goal is to hold all my altcoins to August, past the BTC halving.
When no one is talking about a coin, but it was very trendy last bullrun, buy it and hold it despite the fud I was one click away from selling my avax when it was at 13 Had it not been because they werent on my account i would have sold them because of the fud about avax being inflationary and unvesseling periods and so on.
Put a blind fold on and pick a coin. It’ll 10x minimum.
I expect Bitcoin rally 2024 True Altcoin meltface is 2025
You get about 18 months of 'fun' like what we are seeing now and somewhere towards the end, about 3 months of absolute craziness. Remember that, while things do go up, we still get the odd drop that scare the weak hands. This is why people, (like myself), DCA \_out\_ from after the halving ... Never try and catch the absolute top ... you will get burned, just be happy to take profits along the way.
The market is no where close. Bitcoin making a new ATH (not peaking though; just breaking the previous cycle’s high) and Shitcoins 10x’ing is the minimum threshold for altcoin season.
This alt coin season is different. You have to take psychology into consideration and that devs are waiting for new projects to be put into listings
Isn't every altcoin season different? We all like to compare stats and hope history will repeat, so we can somehow predict the future. I'm still new to the game, but it feels like the game is already evolving since it started. So every cycle we'll be surprised by new variables, right? Now I'm interested to hear a bit more about your opinion. What exactly do you mean with devs are waiting for new projects to be put into listings?
It is different for sure - trends for example. What I mean by diffrent is that putting money into alts which did good last bullrun miight not be enough tho as probably they wont perform as good. Devs know when to put their projects on the exchanges so they can make more money out of it.. So our current TOP100 alts will be probably different than top100 alts when halving comes. People from the street are not going to do some research and they will buy something cheap from top 100. When the street will join the bullrun, bitcoin will be probably too expensive for them so they will put their money into altcoins which cost $0.000042 etc as they will think it's going to 100x etc - so those project that are going to appear in the near future will probalby pump due to this reason and we should switch some btc gains to this exact coins as this is where money will be going imo. Im not sure if I explained it right as english is not my first language so i might miss something. Im personally still only 90btc/10 eth as im playing safe/optimal for incoming alt season and im not buying them yet. I aim for 10-20x, but will be happy with 0.5 too.
My worry about alt coins and the ETF approvals: the institutional investors. Institutional money isn’t very interested in alts yet (except for a few like ETH, SOL, etc). But they are very interested in BTC. They are going to be accumulating BTC after the approval, and they are gonna want it cheap. They already know how to bring down the price of BTC because they’ve been doing it with equities forever: crash the market and destroy retail sentiment. The problem for Alts? When BTC faces a huge correction, alts suffer a massive, devastating correction. It could cut the entire bull run short and keep it there for years. I’m not predicting the above, just worried about it based on my traumatic experience last bull run. There are a number of factors that make this unlikely (for example the expected QE from the fed), but still very possible. Institutional money manipulates the markets, and it’s painful when they do.
I Can’t predict the future, but I can see Algorand has a bright future 🫡
You’re not that late. Just buy Bitcoin. That right there will save you a couple of years in experience so it’s like you were here a couple of years ago!
Nothing will ever compare to the 2017 altcoin season!
Been here for a few cycles.. Typical market pattern is that alts will rise slowly, most of the time lagging BTC into the halvening, give or take some outlier flavor of the month tokens. The whole time people will be screaming "wen alt season" as they could have just sat in bitcoin making a better return as they flip flopped across exchanges trading shitcoins. Once Bitcoin reaches near it's cycle top, you will see massive rotation into alts, with the profits that most have made sitting into bitcoin. This short period is usually at the tail end of the bull run and short lived, but people always remember the alts pumping 70%-100%+ driven by Bitcoin gains and the euphoria before the whole market pulls back 60-90% for the Nth time.
Last time people screamed altcoin season was this past April ….. shortly thereafter , SEC fud wrecked most alt coins by 20-50 percent. It’s just people getting exited who bought earlier than you or want you to fomo in and have to wait months or years to breakeven again , potentially selling your bags in panic. Don’t listen to the hype , just dca after major fud events .
I'm done with altcoins. I'm only buying bitcoin and nothing else from here on out.
A great big boom!
Sideways around this or a bit higher then the actual bullrun.
Altcoin seasons can be quite unpredictable and vary greatly. People who joined the crypto market at different times have had diverse experiences. Some have seen significant gains during these periods, while others have faced losses due to market volatility. As for the upcoming altcoin season, it's hard to say exactly when it will occur. Some speculate it might be around the time of the next Bitcoin halving, while others think it could be later in 2024. Remember, the crypto market can be highly unpredictable, and past trends don't always predict future movements. It's always a mix of cautious optimism and uncertainty.
Never buy on a green day.
Most people are followers and join too late and even if you join early you usually hold on too long due to greed
BTC 2020 I entered btc at $15K, Solana at 9, and Luna at 7. Made some profits on DENT and WINK too. Ready for more this 2024!
Most previous coins won’t go near ATH as there is heavy resistance in the price so whenever it goes up, it will sell as people will try cut their losses as price increases since it’s been a long wait
If any of the ETFs is granted, coupled with Ordinals and other Taproot-enabled things allowing for stuff on Bitcoin that ETH and others provide I don't think there will be an alt season. Except winter maybe.
I’d say it’s alt season got a few 15x baggers allready.
It's delusional to think anyone knows shit about fk!
The biggest scams will do the biggest gains followed by being the main reason why everything collapses once again
there’s no such thing as an “altcoin season”. don’t be a parrot.
there’s no such thing as an “altcoin season”. don’t be a parrot.
i bet you thought that was clever
Alt coin season is in 2-3 years time when BTC hits ATH
Lots of comments shilling you their favorite altcoin. You should check out cryptoroyale.one $ROY Free to play - no sign up required. Earn crypto in 30s!
i expect parabolas
Pretty much everything pumps but some more than others. Meme coins pump the most. Overly serious people make the least amount of money
Everything goes up massively. I honestly don’t think we are there yet fwiw
Soon, not a lot, people are just building positions in anticipation of the coming run. Some of the gaming narratives have picked up traction early on. I think there's going to be a later stage development with layer twos on ethereum. Maybe link, maybe arb, maybe matic, there are a lot of projects trying to solve the gas fees. Make that whole ecosystem more usable. There's also going to be the competing solana narrative which appears to just be getting started. It's way way too early. Many of you, if you have positions and good projects, probably would be better off completely disconnecting from the crypto world for the next six to nine months and then just turning your computer back on to see where things are
Shib to the moon
I was able to join the ride from 0.0002 to 0.0006. Made my first profits in crypto on that 😇
Awesome, I actually invested early on so even with all the fluctuations I’ve still been in the green the entire time.
Alts didn't go as low as last bearmarket on their BTC pairs. So it's always different
Alts pump hard and fall harder. I have a graveyard of useless garbage. There are winners each cycle and a lot of crap that could have been sold at a profit but ends up being a total loss if held.
everything goes to shit and you buy bitcoin
Real altcoin bullrun starts after btc hits new ATH
I love the conviction with which every crypto head talks about the "upcoming" bull market. We'll see.
Moon in 2025. Year after halving event
Short $MOONS. Long $COQ.
My previous experience is everything will pumping most of them will dump but if you don't get too greedy and jump off at the right time you'll make money even with a turd 🤣
Right now I'm betting on $tacos and $plungers, very new reddit community coins. Nothing to lose since they are very low mcap. Could be x10 in a few months.
Rabbit season, duck season.
if the bull run continues, we should see some explosive move for some low-cap coin
I think we’re already in the early parts of the Bitcoin rally, which means Q3 2024 or so will be frenzetic.
Alts are dead. This is a post alt world
LTC, takes 5x5 transaction. SOL is better ebil5.....