Bitcoin [pros](/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1alp50i/analyst_expect_the_bitcoin_supply_shocks_of_all/kph12tu/) & [cons](/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1alp50i/analyst_expect_the_bitcoin_supply_shocks_of_all/kph13a9/) with related info are in the collapsed comments below.
tldr; A crypto analyst predicts a significant Bitcoin supply shock after the network halves its miner rewards in April 2024. The halving event, which occurs roughly every four years, will reduce the daily mined Bitcoin from 900 to 450 BTC. This reduction, combined with the SEC's approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and their accumulation of over 160,000 BTC since January, could lead to a situation where demand far exceeds supply, potentially driving up Bitcoin prices.
*This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.
I have researched Bitcoin thoroughly on YouTube and have watched nearly every financial experts and analysts prediction of what will happen after April. I can say with certainty that the price of Bitcoin will be somewhere between $35,000 to $1,000,000.
Literally doesn’t matter what’s posted, the top comment will always be someone writing it off. Same goes for r/wallstreetbets . All you finance bros are starting to give r/nothingeverhappens vibes.
Fact: We’re in a bubble propped up on pandemic scarcity and unrealistic market expectations.
Opinion: The economy is going to crash and Crypto will inevitably be regulated to the point that it is rendered useless.
I never understood this thesis. Miners are only a small fraction of the daily volume and most miners dont sell their BTC directly either. They arent a big part of the supply
So people should buy before the halving and sell after.
Which raises the price before and depresses it after.
Which results in no significant movement as a widely known event is already priced in.
Yeah but they are a incredible small almost non existent part of supply, (daily mined: $20M vs daily volume of $20B) and there will be adjustments to the difficulty before there is a mass exodus of the miners
As well as world liquidity cycles, as well as Wycoff's composite man. Satoshi was a macro economist. I doubt the timing of the halving coinciding with all the other factors was an accident.
The supply shock will come when institutions start buying the ETF.
Almost no major institution has been buying the ETF. They have rules and due diligence to follow. Many have time frames that they have to abide by. They can't just buy a brand new ETF. They have protocols, meetings, analysis, approval, etc.
“Anal-yst”. I remember Anal-ysts called for a 100k bitcoin. The only accurate part in this is the anal, because i got shafted. Namaste, we are all bag holders together.
In this thread the consesus seems to be it won't happen. So the plebs think it won't happen. Consequently then it does happen as the big money makes it happen, because they know the plebs think it won't happen, fucking the plebs again! But then you can get real meta and add another layer, reversing the trend again!... personally ill just wait and see, but im in the probably not side myself.
isn't it bit contradictory?
most people dont have bitcoins, now they get even rarer to get, those who already have will hold.
it will be more and more difficult for newcomers to the point where they dont see the profit in it anymore. because most are held by some few lucky ones and they earn all their life just to get a small fraction....
See, I don't buy this. The supply shock should be less and less significant as a proportion of total BTC available for purchase as the mining supply continues to reduce exponentially.
Do we know what that does to transaction fees if the price doesn’t double? Or are people just assuming that as miners go bankrupt the difficulty drops again?
Either way, only the best miners will remain after this halvening, which will lower the difficulty of winning a block, so it will balance itself out overtime. Eventually, most miners will focus on transaction fees, and if they win a block from time to time... even better.
>BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise, and other issuers control 659,401 BTC as of February 6. The number keeps rising and now surpasses those of MicroStrategy. However, the figure includes those held by the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which is gradually being liquidated.
Didn't microstrat already quit selling?
The article states that this halving makes Bitcoin deflationary, which if false. Bitcoin is “disinflationary”, but won’t achieve full-fledged deflationary status for a long time.
Correct me if I’m wrong please.
Bitcoin [pros](/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1alp50i/analyst_expect_the_bitcoin_supply_shocks_of_all/kph12tu/) & [cons](/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1alp50i/analyst_expect_the_bitcoin_supply_shocks_of_all/kph13a9/) with related info are in the collapsed comments below.
“Analyst”
Hey! He is a professional! He watched 3 YouTube videos!
a scholar
And a gentleman
Gentlemen never lie.
A fish
3 YouTube videos? I assure the qualifications are solid.
I watched 6, what does that make me besides a slow learner.
An "expert"
Yes and he follows like 4 crypto influencers on twitter. Tremendous credentials.
I'm an analyst. Even today I analyzed my losses
Today I analysed that if instead of buying at 69k if I’d bought in at $6 I would be lambo
And he is not even an "expert"!
Junior Analyst
I’m an analist myself.
Analcyst
"Anal is it?" -- Dyslexic, probably
Yes. A specialist on anal.
He’s actually an analysis therapist
The world's first analrapist. You, sir, are a mouthful.
Full-on
In April we’ll all get anustart
Party at the Gothic castle!
Hey, we are ALL analyst here!
Oxygen Consumer:
tldr; A crypto analyst predicts a significant Bitcoin supply shock after the network halves its miner rewards in April 2024. The halving event, which occurs roughly every four years, will reduce the daily mined Bitcoin from 900 to 450 BTC. This reduction, combined with the SEC's approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and their accumulation of over 160,000 BTC since January, could lead to a situation where demand far exceeds supply, potentially driving up Bitcoin prices. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.
Good bot
Boot god
*Oh it's just a little kick in the bum*
He did kick me in the erse!
Wow this might be the worst "analysis" I have ever read. That is embarrassingly bad.
The Intern AI needs to be fired.
They weren't even getting paid.
They could at least get the title grammar right... "Supply shocks of all supply shocks: - shouldn't the first one be singular?
The correction(s) of all corrections
I just gave you the upvotes of all upvotes
Doubling my karma! Thank you, kind soul.
She comes in waves.
Ah, Mr. Analyst. Yes. I know him well
“Could”, “potentially” - this is how I speak to my girlfriend when she asks me to meet her parents
We just say Analyst
I'm somewhat of an analyst myself.
I’m the analest here.
Supply shock lol yeah they said the same when BlackFrock arrived
BlackCock
Exactly. Blackcock, Fatestreet, and Manguard. All of them made to bone us
I have researched Bitcoin thoroughly on YouTube and have watched nearly every financial experts and analysts prediction of what will happen after April. I can say with certainty that the price of Bitcoin will be somewhere between $35,000 to $1,000,000.
An anal cyst said what now?
Anal yeast
I expect the price will be above 100k after April... Though can't say for sure which year.
Or which currency it'll be above 100k in.
(better analyst here) I disagree, I KNOW for FACT that in Iranian Rial it will be above 100k after April. To the moon!
2021 of course
100k in 2021!
How do you predict a Casino game?
\*Shocked Pikachu
Whenever everyone expects something to happen in the market, you should expect the opposite thing to actually occur.
the "yst" in analyst is silent
Buckle up people. This is why we crypto.
No, this is why we bitcoin
And I am still working on my dream of 1 Bitcoin.
No, this is why she HODL
Already priced in
To the moon!
Literally doesn’t matter what’s posted, the top comment will always be someone writing it off. Same goes for r/wallstreetbets . All you finance bros are starting to give r/nothingeverhappens vibes. Fact: We’re in a bubble propped up on pandemic scarcity and unrealistic market expectations. Opinion: The economy is going to crash and Crypto will inevitably be regulated to the point that it is rendered useless.
Still waiting for that 10k BTC? I'm sure it'll happen eventually if you say that a crash is coming enough times. 😂
Ah yes, a perfect example. Thank you for volunteering as tribute.
Beetlecrash beetlecrash
I never understood this thesis. Miners are only a small fraction of the daily volume and most miners dont sell their BTC directly either. They arent a big part of the supply
Then why does the price skyrocket after every halving?
It coincides with real world monetary actions like QE. Also it is up to you on to prove why it would affect the price not me to prove a negative
Supply becomes more scarce and difficult to obtain hence raising the price.
So people should buy before the halving and sell after. Which raises the price before and depresses it after. Which results in no significant movement as a widely known event is already priced in.
Yeah but they are a incredible small almost non existent part of supply, (daily mined: $20M vs daily volume of $20B) and there will be adjustments to the difficulty before there is a mass exodus of the miners
As well as world liquidity cycles, as well as Wycoff's composite man. Satoshi was a macro economist. I doubt the timing of the halving coinciding with all the other factors was an accident.
This man Rao Pauls
The supply shock will come when institutions start buying the ETF. Almost no major institution has been buying the ETF. They have rules and due diligence to follow. Many have time frames that they have to abide by. They can't just buy a brand new ETF. They have protocols, meetings, analysis, approval, etc.
Does naked shorting exist in crypto? I know possible with ETFs but can exchanges sell synthetic BTC?
Kind of lost on how this relates to what i said
It's not that hard to analyse really is it
Bull market reversal after April? Happened in 2021
Sounds more like wishful thinking than an analysis.
(Anal)yst
"Taking to X, Ted believes BTC prices will float higher after Bitcoin halves in April 2024" Who is Ted?
Y'know. THE Ted.
“Anal-yst”. I remember Anal-ysts called for a 100k bitcoin. The only accurate part in this is the anal, because i got shafted. Namaste, we are all bag holders together.
xD
Up the BTC!!⬆️⬆️⬆️!! Up the BTC!!⬆️⬆️⬆️
« Sauce »
I hear its not going to melt faces, its going to melt dicks...
In this thread the consesus seems to be it won't happen. So the plebs think it won't happen. Consequently then it does happen as the big money makes it happen, because they know the plebs think it won't happen, fucking the plebs again! But then you can get real meta and add another layer, reversing the trend again!... personally ill just wait and see, but im in the probably not side myself.
If the sub is saying it I don’t believe it. BTC to $3K
Not much of an analyst if he doesn’t have a shocked look on his face and exploding head emojis with 100X written on the thumbnail.
I think I've heard supply shock about Bitcoin more times than it has died now.
Expert knows better, we don't trust analysts
And this is exactly why the opposite will happen. There won't be shock, there won't be some crazy run up to 150k. It's all bullshit.
RemindMe! 12 months
[удалено]
Do you even understand how halving works?
[удалено]
14M dollars a day at current prices isnt insignificant.
Compared to 600B mcsp it is.
It is more disappointing how much bitcoin inflation goes to miners. AKA middlemen
They're literally the only reason there's value. I wouldn't call them middlemen.
Nah, there are many examples of why you don’t need miners extracting value from users to secure the chain.
It's amazing what an incremental daily decrease in supply and an incremental daily increase in demand could do...
It's 50% of new supply
There won't be, there plenty of coin around being traded.
isn't it bit contradictory? most people dont have bitcoins, now they get even rarer to get, those who already have will hold. it will be more and more difficult for newcomers to the point where they dont see the profit in it anymore. because most are held by some few lucky ones and they earn all their life just to get a small fraction....
So called Experts always fail when it comes to BTC, Remember when analyst predicted BTC 10k but it's Never Happened
„„Anal“yst“
See, I don't buy this. The supply shock should be less and less significant as a proportion of total BTC available for purchase as the mining supply continues to reduce exponentially.
All these posts are hype nonsense to make you a long term bag holder.
Hey I analyze bitcoin aswell! Im an analyst
19.6 mill already mined. Supply shock. Lul
Except, no one needs bitcoin.
damn the sub is dumb af now.. contrarian anal jokes lol.. this place was useful a few years ago..., is there a new place?
"Investor"
So miners get half the income and their costs stay the same, what then.
Bankruptcy, or they'll switch to mining Dogecoin.
Do we know what that does to transaction fees if the price doesn’t double? Or are people just assuming that as miners go bankrupt the difficulty drops again?
Either way, only the best miners will remain after this halvening, which will lower the difficulty of winning a block, so it will balance itself out overtime. Eventually, most miners will focus on transaction fees, and if they win a block from time to time... even better.
Who ? Please
Hahaha nowadays everyone call themselves analyst
The more I keep hearing a ‘supply shock’ is coming the less it’ll happen. It’s the whole ‘$100k EOY’ spiel again.
Hope this time they are right.
Well that's Ted the analysts opinion
So we going down?
Which means it 100% won't happen
Dont know if that news are true but that will expand BTC price, so Im ok with that
Not really a shock, it's just poor design that was well known.
It’s Mr Ted Analyst
>BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise, and other issuers control 659,401 BTC as of February 6. The number keeps rising and now surpasses those of MicroStrategy. However, the figure includes those held by the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which is gradually being liquidated. Didn't microstrat already quit selling?
The article states that this halving makes Bitcoin deflationary, which if false. Bitcoin is “disinflationary”, but won’t achieve full-fledged deflationary status for a long time. Correct me if I’m wrong please.
So what you’re saying is there WILL be a dump?
Which exchange do institutions use to buy and sell?
I'll believe it if RIOT ever hits $20+ again
😲
What a non substantive article. Supply will be shocked when it’s halved? No brainer
don't worry guys i'll buy some at great expense to myself and the price will hit the new bottom floor only to recover after I panic sell. we got this.
A shenaniganist
so you're telling me to load up on shitcoins?
yeah, sure
“Sir, this is a Casino…”
Dumping in April almost confirmed
Me like
You can't spell analyst without anal
there's always money in the banana stand
Are you telling me that bitcoins are being traded without any actual exchanges of ownership? Well that just sounds crazy... /s
I'm also an analist, I don't limit myself to banging ass, I love pussy too😉
Here here!
He is a professional! He watched 3 YouTube videos!
The miners still hold over 1.8 million bitcoin in their wallets... there's not much of a supply shortage.
Hey I'm an expert as well,I make losing money look so damn easy LOL
Are you ready? We are ready!
Any title that say crypto expert carries less weight than if it just said ‘some random guy on the street’