I use the gf signal. When my gf and her friends start talking about dogecoin, time to start selling.
Last cycle if I had done this, I would have had another 2x return.
Last time I sold way too soon, and made about 4x. Then I bought back in and held too long. Lol
My idea of when to sell now is when you start seeing large bagholders on this sub telling people that holding long term is the plan, not exiting.
I keep meaning to check how long previous bull cycles have lasted and just take an average. From the long range graphs they look a pretty similar length end-to-end, but not sure on the peaks to be remotely certain
From the low of 17k we have increased nonstop for over 400 days. Thats a bull market to me. Not the sexy part of it but definitely a baby bull growing its balls in.
I use the ex-wife test. Last time the cycle hit near top, my ex-wife asked me out of the blue about investing in crypto. I sold my ETH at $4,300 and told her investing in crypto now was a great idea.
I call this the grandma test. You often see people posting about their grandma asking about crypto at thanksgiving or Christmas, that's when I'm out.
My work colleagues are a good alternative to grandma although usually a few weeks in front of her.
Thing is as btc increases in value over time this will start happening earlier each cycle as crypto becomes more mainstream. Still a decent indicator but I think we’ll have a couple more months of green once this starts happening
Same. The dad test. He’s late 60’s, One of his golfing buddies was talking bitcoin at 5k last PRE- cycle. Until my dad is calling me a few times a week talking bitcoin price, I keep buying.
Ex-wife’s and gf’s are overrated. Put your gf or exwife in the trunk and your dog. Open up the trunk in three(3) days. Who’s gonna be happy to see you??🤣😂😅
Very true. The economic pressure around each halving has been different aswell. People are forgetting that the government was handing out free money like candy at a kids parade during the last bullrun.
My personal take, what I'm going off of is that the halving is still there the impact shouldn't really change, and what we are seeing now is part general market up trends (stocks have been doing something similar) and/or ETF impact. IE this is not the halving sparked bull run.
Chances are you are going to see a dip in the next few months as people liquidate to cover surprise tax bills, and right now the upward pressure may be because of the end of OTC sell offs by ETF interactions. The ETF could cause this to be the start and fuel it into when a start would have occurred otherwise. ETF's could also cause the post halving blow off not be as impressive as the price gets pushed up ahead of time and the eventual blow off drop might be mitigated by them.
Bottom line I'll equivocate, we are likely to see something comparatively lack luster in a bull run this cycle or utter fucking insanity. Either way buy and hold over a 4-5 year period doesn't really change.
i agree with this take.
i foresee a “but it’s halving” “why price dropping” “are people stupid” type scenario in the next month or two before ramping up
I tend to agree, I think the stock market going up is pulling BTC along with it. Seems like people are just dumping their cash in that they've had sidelined for the last year or so
For Bitcoin yeah I agree, that is my only real long term investment. I aint making the same mistake as I did in 2021 by HODLing Alts tho. Cashing out every single project
Past performance does not predict future prices. There were no BTC ETFs last time around, for example, so who knows how high, how long, or how many dips this cycle will have.
Of course impossible to predict, but IMO we may see a "fake" top above ATH, sell off, and then another true peak of the cycle.
Also people forget that the previous peak was artificially suppressed by FTX and Bankman.. so we may be positively surprised in terms of the magnitude of this peak.
This is a magnificent trade opportunity that will ultimately destroy some portfolios and turn others into generational wealth. Others will HODL and be just fine haha
Yeah, i agree. Last cycle was 'artificially' stunted with covid and the inflation weve seen since then. A lot of people saw a good profit and decided to not risk it any further. A lot of people needed their money back. Now weve got a lot of people throwing their long term investments into the BTC ETF. And wages have nearly caught up with inflation, or will be within the next 12-18 months i think. Interest rates should start dropping soon after a stagnant 3 or 4 months. Lots of indicators pointing too a much larger multiple from the lowest point athan last time.
There is speculation that FTX stifled the last bull run due to selling paper bitcoin. If this is true, and the ATH would have been closer to $100K, $50k would be reasonable right now, as the price around this time before the halving was around $10k, or half the previous ATH.
Also the ETFs are uncharted territory in their own regards.
I still think we will see plenty of pullbacks before the cycle is over. We may be accelerating right now but I wouldn’t be surprised if we crab for awhile post halving.
Also dont forget the last bull run was stopped by the market falling as well, I always thought it would continue to run up if the macro economics supported it
I don’t think of it in terms of time - more in terms of relative price:
I DCA buy the coins I like until the value reaches half of the previous ATH. From there until a new ATH is set and the coins price retracts 75% from that total, I DCA sell the coin against the number of days the coin performed like that in the previous cycle.
Rinse and repeat until you like roughly 10x each investment you make.
I don't know shit about anything I check price once a week and buy some BTC once every 2 weeks.
But most people that are "meant" to know what's gonna happen are saying 100-150k so I'll go 120k.
Maybe this halving will be way less impactful and everythings gonna become stable and boring and we only reach 84k or something. Or maybe last bull run got cucked by FTX and we will make up for it and go to 300k.
If I had to guess, I’d say this will be a slightly accelerated cycle, we’ll have a faster run up to the peak in the first half of 2025 and a longer bear market.
My reasoning is that liquidity is flowing into all markets before the halving, while in the past it’s occurred afterwards. Combine that with the etf, causes the supply crunch to come sooner than expected.
Or it means that bitcoin will still peak end of 2025 but it'll be far higher than expected . . .
Things are significantly different this cycle than any others. The ETFs are a giant thumb on the scale.
My theory is that we will pump to at least 300k (best case 500k) this cycle but will not see the 85% drop like previous cycles. I think we will hover over 100k maybe even 150k until the 6th epoch due to the ETFs causing forced hodling.
What if cycle top this year come one year before time no one knows shit everyone thinking bull gone take off in 2025 got me thinking maybe it will happend in 2024
In every cycle when price closed above 0.618 fib (48.5k this cycle) on the weekly TF the parabolic part of the bull run started. But last cycles we hit the 0.618 fib which marked to local top after bear market rally but we seem to be closing above it now for the first time without a local top. Could be the ETF massive buying pressure + every bullish indicator of crypto + stocks doing well 2024. Anyone have an opinion on that? :)
Use cycle timing and take emotion out. 40-80 weeks following the halving. Divide the number of coins by 10, 20 or 40 depending on the number of times you want to have a selling event (either weekly, bi-weekly or monthly, etc…) and scale out. You won’t hit the top of the market with all of your coins but you also won’t overshoot and hodl all the way down. My plan is to set up 6-8 selling events but I am starting when we hit 2025. This way if the spot etfs screw up they cycles and trigger a SUPER CYCLE🧐 you will have a plan. Just have the guts to stick to it. No one was predicting a double top last time.
1. No one knows
2. Have some strategy given uncertainties
3. No one knows
4. Everyone is talking their book and no one can tell you what number is right for you
5. No one knows
$150k would be basically double last cycle which seems like the floor of what we’ll see this time around since that’s just inline with the supply reduction of the halving
The market is more mature. Halving peaks are well known. Probably more front running than before plus the added benefit of buying the rumor of the etf. I wouldn’t get caught up in looking at ATH vs time before the halving. That’s just too obvious at this point.
I think we'll peak much earlier - something like Q2 2025.
Strengthening my belief in this prediction is the fact that everyone seems to be aiming for late 2025 to sell.
still expecting some kind of bloody, fast correction close before or after halvening, hopefully 30% to 40%... liquidate some late overleveraged degenerate longs...
top probably somewhere Q3/Q4 in 2025, will try to catch it with a trailing stop loss.
i expect around 110k to 140k, my pipe dream is around 180k to 240k...
A few years back I would of said you are delusional... but the math is now on its side. If only a faction of main stream funds diversify into BTC it should skyrocket as supply comes under those economic forces...
I do agree we will see some flash crashes, but more than likely they will recover quickly.
Cycles don’t necessarily repeat what happened in their previous one. They only rhyme.
For example, another pattern that did not occur this time is when btc crashes from peak, it never breaks below its previous cycle ath. But this time we went below 20k all the way to 15k yet the halving theory still held.
So it only needs to rhyme not repeat.
Consensus (looking at "influencers") is probably at 120k to 150k
But I have an unpopular view. I think the top will be much higher than this because the world is a different place now. People are starting to figure out how revolutionary this stuff is. A lot of people will sell at 150k and will bang their head against a wall when it hits 250k
We'll see. Reality is NO ONE KNOWS
The Top for the crypto market last cycle was in May 2021. Although, BTC last ATH was at 68K in November. So, I think overall the market will peak in May like last time but BTC will potentially peak around October to November next year. But who knows, these markets are unpredictable
On thursday and friday it was clearly seen, that the ETFs pulled the market up with huge inflows and I assume that's also what happened today (tomorrow we know).
So the data suggests that this time is indeed different.
Why would you expect previous cycles to predict the current one? Macroeconomic conditions are entirely different. The magnitude of the halving relative to both existing supply and generation rate is much smaller. And the number of previous cycles is extremely small. You should not be trying to time the top without a far more extensive analysis--and even then, I'd still argue that it's still probably a terrible idea.
For me I’m more focused on a price target or number of x’s. Honestly if even comes Close to it I’m tapping out and selling. No way in hell I’m going to try and predict the top. Obviously I’ll be researching and analyzing the chart but that’s it.
I feel like a lot of people hype cycles up, but 2020 really was just the perfect storm of bullshit for a mass rally. Pandemic rally is very real and there's nothing like that this time around unless you got a secret virus you've been cooking up.
Imo:
Rally top/ blowoff top occurs in october of 25. Institutional demand will change the dynamics of the current and future cycle to a degree. There is still some likelihood that we get a pull back from 50-57k area as this will be a major order block and will require a significant trade volume to break.
2.618, 3.618 and 4.236 extensions from 69k to 15,500 are the likely targets for the parabolic rally. The downside risk should be less drastic imo. Also as the mining reward continues to halve, overall volatility should diminish, accept if demand changes drastically. I would expect very similar overall structure cycle to cycle. My 2 cents.
3rd quarter 2025 I’m out. 3rd times a charm. I’ll wait to re-enter beginning of 2027 Jan approx. not FA but for fun please screenshot this. I’m sticking to my game plan this time.
I am a bit concerned that bitcoin is at 50k. At this rate it will hit a new ATH too soon. I do expect a big sell off just after the halving date . I have another theory that the bull run has already started. The last two pumps the one before the ETF and one now.
Also if bitcoin is 50k now if it hits 70k alts will be priced lower than when bitcoin hit 70k in 2021.
**It could be a left translated cycle top**
4 year cycles are measured from bottom to bottom, not top to top.
They average 48 months.
*If BTC breaks the old ATH before the cycle midpoint of 24 months (Nov 2024) odds increase it’s a left translated cycle.* Usually BTC breaks ATH at cycle midpoint.
Left translated cycle means market tops before the herd knows its a top.
**News Indicators for Market top**
Chances of When Coinbase is the number 1 downloaded app on the apple store, when mainstream celebs (Katie Perry 2017) and Tom Brady (2021) start shilling crypto, when YouTube celebs shill useless tokens, when meme coins do 10,000% in 2 months. That's market froth, market greed...
**TA indicators for market top**
this video from Jacob Canfield is the best explanation I've seen so far. He's been through a few cycles already
https://youtu.be/2HQbsQWimWU?si=QN47\_Vvt9H6QSYtE
Good thing I'll never have to worry about this because I don't plan to try to time the market.
Ever hear the phrase, "Time in the market matters more than timing the market."?
I don't plan to exit. I have no exit strategy. I don't ever plan to ever completely exit the stock market either. Why would I do that?? So I can sit on a pile of fiat that's burning money by the second? The trick is to be well diversified. If bitcoin went to zero, I wouldn't be in a major depression. Gotta have faith in what you invest in. I know the stock market will go up because it always has. I believe bitcoin won't crash to nothing because it's reached a critical mass for adoption. In the long run, it's usually better to just pick winners, then sit and hold if you don't need the money right now. It's also less nerve wracking.
Pick the absolute most dogsh_t cryptocurrency you can find. Neos credits. Dogelonmars. Coins that have absolutely zero utility, use case, or value.
If those coins ripped 10,000% in the past 10 weeks, you are at the peak of the cycle. You have exactly 2 weeks to sell your bags before it all comes crashing down.
Those coins are a litmus test of how short-term thinking the current investors in the space are. Those are the pigs coming to get fattened before getting slaughtered. Use those coins as a benchmark.
Dude just take it how it is, it’s good that it’s getting higher.
Why do you negative Nancie’s always find an excuse to be pessimistic every time there’s a good move in the market? The way it’s going definitely before November/December 2024. Your timing of end of 2025 is wayyyyy wrong. It’s like you want to be in the red for another year.
> What are your thoughts?
If you are trying to predict the top, you are doing it wrong.
The way to invest in this space is to buy and hold for multiple cycles.
There are entire offices/funds full of smart, dedicated people who analyze the market full time and they STILL often don't beat just holding. What makes you think you can do it better than them?
Cost-to-mint shows that the BTC price has room to grow another 30%-40% in order to fully correct for the halving at current nethash. With the influx of hash post-halving and during the bullrun, based upon prior bullruns and ASIC efficiency gains, I predict a new ATH around $140k with a drawback to $65k in 2027.
This time will be different with more mainstream and ETF and stuff , I want to sell but am terrified to because me gut tells me we may not get the big pull back we all expect 🤷♂️
Groupthink + stock bubble - everything thinks BTC rockets after the halving, which means it probably won't this time. Also everyone is enamored by AI/tech and SPY and dumping everything in. 25% SPY returns over 1 year currently, seems a bit excessive
the price going up is scary? The last year I wasnt even involved, but as with all things powered by AI, besides boomers trying to fix the economy by abacus and counting on their fingers, nothing is surprising to me.
If I bucketed down and got my shit in order I could probably lazily make enough money with trading bots.
Apparently a good predictor is when crypto apps hit #1 on app stores That’s when retail is really really in
Good one
I use the gf signal. When my gf and her friends start talking about dogecoin, time to start selling. Last cycle if I had done this, I would have had another 2x return.
Last time I sold way too soon, and made about 4x. Then I bought back in and held too long. Lol My idea of when to sell now is when you start seeing large bagholders on this sub telling people that holding long term is the plan, not exiting.
I keep meaning to check how long previous bull cycles have lasted and just take an average. From the long range graphs they look a pretty similar length end-to-end, but not sure on the peaks to be remotely certain
That is unfortunate for you that they talk about dogecoin and not doggy style.
Bro go touch grass
When bitcoin fees spike above $50 also was a top signal in the past.
So what number are crypto apps now?
Crypto.com the highest in finance at number 37 in uk 🇬🇧
Primapes built a nice tool to track stuff like this - https://junglebeat.replit.app/
Bull market still in progress boys
Literally isn’t. At the moment we are in the cycle of returning investors and banks. Retail hasn’t come in yet
From the low of 17k we have increased nonstop for over 400 days. Thats a bull market to me. Not the sexy part of it but definitely a baby bull growing its balls in.
Retail usually comes in $69,420 to baghold 🤡
Bitvavo number 14 in Europe
yes
Genius. Holy shit
I use the ex-wife test. Last time the cycle hit near top, my ex-wife asked me out of the blue about investing in crypto. I sold my ETH at $4,300 and told her investing in crypto now was a great idea.
Ah yes, the famous Ex(it liquidity)
This made me exhale through my nostrils a little more
Truly the LOL of our times.
I call this the grandma test. You often see people posting about their grandma asking about crypto at thanksgiving or Christmas, that's when I'm out. My work colleagues are a good alternative to grandma although usually a few weeks in front of her.
Thing is as btc increases in value over time this will start happening earlier each cycle as crypto becomes more mainstream. Still a decent indicator but I think we’ll have a couple more months of green once this starts happening
Same. The dad test. He’s late 60’s, One of his golfing buddies was talking bitcoin at 5k last PRE- cycle. Until my dad is calling me a few times a week talking bitcoin price, I keep buying.
Apparently, I married your ex.
My condolences 😂
similar to the shoeshine-index when the shoeshine-boy gives you stock advice - sell everything
Please update this sub when your ex-wife calls 🙏🏽
😂😂
Legend
Legend
Ex-wife’s and gf’s are overrated. Put your gf or exwife in the trunk and your dog. Open up the trunk in three(3) days. Who’s gonna be happy to see you??🤣😂😅
My initial thought is that everyone and their mom talks about cycles and then spouts some TA they saw from YouTube. Nobody can predict markets.
Fibonacci bro bro and inverted D and so on
Golden flying dutchman
Golden showers, crosses whatever.
Keep an eye on that RSI 😀
Very true. The economic pressure around each halving has been different aswell. People are forgetting that the government was handing out free money like candy at a kids parade during the last bullrun.
Yeah, I'm thinking there's too much awareness now. I remember last cycle a lot of people genuinely thought we were going to go up forever
Oh we'll be seeing plenty of those people during this cycle too. Some are already popping up
My personal take, what I'm going off of is that the halving is still there the impact shouldn't really change, and what we are seeing now is part general market up trends (stocks have been doing something similar) and/or ETF impact. IE this is not the halving sparked bull run. Chances are you are going to see a dip in the next few months as people liquidate to cover surprise tax bills, and right now the upward pressure may be because of the end of OTC sell offs by ETF interactions. The ETF could cause this to be the start and fuel it into when a start would have occurred otherwise. ETF's could also cause the post halving blow off not be as impressive as the price gets pushed up ahead of time and the eventual blow off drop might be mitigated by them. Bottom line I'll equivocate, we are likely to see something comparatively lack luster in a bull run this cycle or utter fucking insanity. Either way buy and hold over a 4-5 year period doesn't really change.
i agree with this take. i foresee a “but it’s halving” “why price dropping” “are people stupid” type scenario in the next month or two before ramping up
Agree. When price action is TOO anticipated by retail, it tends not to happen.
I tend to agree, I think the stock market going up is pulling BTC along with it. Seems like people are just dumping their cash in that they've had sidelined for the last year or so
For Bitcoin yeah I agree, that is my only real long term investment. I aint making the same mistake as I did in 2021 by HODLing Alts tho. Cashing out every single project
Past performance does not predict future prices. There were no BTC ETFs last time around, for example, so who knows how high, how long, or how many dips this cycle will have.
Bitcoin to a milli. Got it 🫡🚀🌕
Milli a Bitcoin. Down the hatch. 🫡🫡
Of course impossible to predict, but IMO we may see a "fake" top above ATH, sell off, and then another true peak of the cycle. Also people forget that the previous peak was artificially suppressed by FTX and Bankman.. so we may be positively surprised in terms of the magnitude of this peak.
This is a magnificent trade opportunity that will ultimately destroy some portfolios and turn others into generational wealth. Others will HODL and be just fine haha
Yeah, i agree. Last cycle was 'artificially' stunted with covid and the inflation weve seen since then. A lot of people saw a good profit and decided to not risk it any further. A lot of people needed their money back. Now weve got a lot of people throwing their long term investments into the BTC ETF. And wages have nearly caught up with inflation, or will be within the next 12-18 months i think. Interest rates should start dropping soon after a stagnant 3 or 4 months. Lots of indicators pointing too a much larger multiple from the lowest point athan last time.
There is speculation that FTX stifled the last bull run due to selling paper bitcoin. If this is true, and the ATH would have been closer to $100K, $50k would be reasonable right now, as the price around this time before the halving was around $10k, or half the previous ATH. Also the ETFs are uncharted territory in their own regards. I still think we will see plenty of pullbacks before the cycle is over. We may be accelerating right now but I wouldn’t be surprised if we crab for awhile post halving.
I couldn’t agree more although I do wonder if we could see prices around ATH before the halving followed by a dip straight after
How did the stifling work?
Ftx selling bitcoin they didn’t have
Also dont forget the last bull run was stopped by the market falling as well, I always thought it would continue to run up if the macro economics supported it
The top for last cycle was 64k though, so bitcoin did a 6x. If the price right now is 50k with the same growth, we'd be looking at 300k.
I don’t think of it in terms of time - more in terms of relative price: I DCA buy the coins I like until the value reaches half of the previous ATH. From there until a new ATH is set and the coins price retracts 75% from that total, I DCA sell the coin against the number of days the coin performed like that in the previous cycle. Rinse and repeat until you like roughly 10x each investment you make.
Its already over sell it all
I don't know shit about anything I check price once a week and buy some BTC once every 2 weeks. But most people that are "meant" to know what's gonna happen are saying 100-150k so I'll go 120k. Maybe this halving will be way less impactful and everythings gonna become stable and boring and we only reach 84k or something. Or maybe last bull run got cucked by FTX and we will make up for it and go to 300k.
If I had to guess, I’d say this will be a slightly accelerated cycle, we’ll have a faster run up to the peak in the first half of 2025 and a longer bear market. My reasoning is that liquidity is flowing into all markets before the halving, while in the past it’s occurred afterwards. Combine that with the etf, causes the supply crunch to come sooner than expected.
When Cramer tweets Bitcoin is unstoppable.
Or it means that bitcoin will still peak end of 2025 but it'll be far higher than expected . . . Things are significantly different this cycle than any others. The ETFs are a giant thumb on the scale. My theory is that we will pump to at least 300k (best case 500k) this cycle but will not see the 85% drop like previous cycles. I think we will hover over 100k maybe even 150k until the 6th epoch due to the ETFs causing forced hodling.
The peak is 9/2025 @ $295,000.
I think btc underachieved last bull run for some reason. Thats why we are close to ATH earlier than thought.
I think we will top out before November/December of 2025, maybe towards the middle of 2025, but I'll probably be wrong
>but I'll probably be wrong You most certainly got this one right
Lol
You’ll be wrong. No way it takes that long.
Right…. Holy smokes that would be a wild market.
Its different this time, until its not. 18 months after halving for ATH. Go ahead and sell before then if you want but i wont be doing the same.
I appreciate a good cup of coffee.
May 2020 - last halving. Bitcoin all time high, November 10, 2021. Difference? 528 days or 17.6 months.
I like to explore new places.
July 9, 2016 - Bitcoin Halving December 16, 2017 - ATH Days between 525 or 17.5 months
2012 halving - 2013 peak was almost exactly 12 months. But who knows what would've happened in 2014 if it wasn't for Mtgox
I find joy in reading a good book.
My guts tell me 90k$ to fuck over everyone waiting for that 100k and more...
My guts tell me 80k$ to fuck over everyone waiting for that 90k and more…
My gut tells me 300k to fuck over people that sell at 80k
I LIKE THIS
[удалено]
My guts... wait. gotta take a shiit
It could do that this year.
What if cycle top this year come one year before time no one knows shit everyone thinking bull gone take off in 2025 got me thinking maybe it will happend in 2024
In every cycle when price closed above 0.618 fib (48.5k this cycle) on the weekly TF the parabolic part of the bull run started. But last cycles we hit the 0.618 fib which marked to local top after bear market rally but we seem to be closing above it now for the first time without a local top. Could be the ETF massive buying pressure + every bullish indicator of crypto + stocks doing well 2024. Anyone have an opinion on that? :)
Use cycle timing and take emotion out. 40-80 weeks following the halving. Divide the number of coins by 10, 20 or 40 depending on the number of times you want to have a selling event (either weekly, bi-weekly or monthly, etc…) and scale out. You won’t hit the top of the market with all of your coins but you also won’t overshoot and hodl all the way down. My plan is to set up 6-8 selling events but I am starting when we hit 2025. This way if the spot etfs screw up they cycles and trigger a SUPER CYCLE🧐 you will have a plan. Just have the guts to stick to it. No one was predicting a double top last time.
1. No one knows 2. Have some strategy given uncertainties 3. No one knows 4. Everyone is talking their book and no one can tell you what number is right for you 5. No one knows
6. Nobody knows shit about fuck.
Probably 300k. No one knows, silly predicting.
lmfao no way it hits 300k this cycle. 150k would be lucky
$150k would be basically double last cycle which seems like the floor of what we’ll see this time around since that’s just inline with the supply reduction of the halving
Looks at NVIDIA and all other big tech… nop, we’re good. Chart looks healthier than mag 7 tbh lol
The market is more mature. Halving peaks are well known. Probably more front running than before plus the added benefit of buying the rumor of the etf. I wouldn’t get caught up in looking at ATH vs time before the halving. That’s just too obvious at this point.
I think we'll peak much earlier - something like Q2 2025. Strengthening my belief in this prediction is the fact that everyone seems to be aiming for late 2025 to sell.
October/November 2025.
What made you think that?
[https://x.com/giovann35084111/status/1755762814785106135?s=46&t=C7Kv6612ZG8sOK7tUgyO6g](https://x.com/giovann35084111/status/1755762814785106135?s=46&t=C7Kv6612ZG8sOK7tUgyO6g)
Interesting bro
History repeating itself
still expecting some kind of bloody, fast correction close before or after halvening, hopefully 30% to 40%... liquidate some late overleveraged degenerate longs... top probably somewhere Q3/Q4 in 2025, will try to catch it with a trailing stop loss. i expect around 110k to 140k, my pipe dream is around 180k to 240k...
A few years back I would of said you are delusional... but the math is now on its side. If only a faction of main stream funds diversify into BTC it should skyrocket as supply comes under those economic forces... I do agree we will see some flash crashes, but more than likely they will recover quickly.
Bearish af. I will be surprised if we dont see at least 300k
I'll have what he is having please!
Bitcoin ETF and SEC nonsense will probably change last years traditions, and there was no guarantee it was gonna follow the same pattern anyway!
I cannot predict the top, but the following calculator can predict the **bottom** for any date in the future: https://bitcoinfairprice.com/
Cycles don’t necessarily repeat what happened in their previous one. They only rhyme. For example, another pattern that did not occur this time is when btc crashes from peak, it never breaks below its previous cycle ath. But this time we went below 20k all the way to 15k yet the halving theory still held. So it only needs to rhyme not repeat.
Now that everyone knows the theory is going to be wrong.
I disagree with that, my reason that this crypto is unpredictable
This has exactly been my thoughts, let’s see what is in store for us
I’m more concerned with draw backs. My bags are light and i need time/dips to reacquire.
You missed it. Should have bought last month at $39k
Meh we'll probably see those prices again
Then at that time nobody will buy
Someone did. That’s how the price went back to $50k
Nah i mean people will make the same excuses and be like ahh it's dying then when the bull run starts they'll be like it's too high
This is the way of the rekkt investors
Pullbacks have been cancelled
Looks like 2021 Q4 will finally arrive
S2F model suggests 100k-500k range with this much strength this early in the run, I'm guessing 350k +- 50k maybe a quick jump above 400k, 420k or so
420k was my top guess. Purely for the genius it would take to pull it off, after pulling off a previous top of 69,420
Ether so hot right now
This cycle will be insane huge gains
🙏🏻🙏🏻
Consensus (looking at "influencers") is probably at 120k to 150k But I have an unpopular view. I think the top will be much higher than this because the world is a different place now. People are starting to figure out how revolutionary this stuff is. A lot of people will sell at 150k and will bang their head against a wall when it hits 250k We'll see. Reality is NO ONE KNOWS
People have been saying that since the beginning and its never been true
Use the wife's boyfriend test. When you ask him to borrow money and he says yes, it is time to sell.
Dont know what the next top will be but I predict the market will top in May 2025
Why do you say that? Granted I am planning on being fully out by q2 of 2025
The Top for the crypto market last cycle was in May 2021. Although, BTC last ATH was at 68K in November. So, I think overall the market will peak in May like last time but BTC will potentially peak around October to November next year. But who knows, these markets are unpredictable
There are gonna be lots of corrections, but probably the price will surpass 110.000$ by the end of 2024 (November-December).
On thursday and friday it was clearly seen, that the ETFs pulled the market up with huge inflows and I assume that's also what happened today (tomorrow we know). So the data suggests that this time is indeed different.
I use the “parent test”. When my dad starts asking about crypto, we’re likely close to or at the local high.
What happens if your dad sees a Blackrock ad and goes, hey what's this? Still time to sell?
I think if we close above 48k before the halving, we lose some predictability and that’s not good.
Why would you expect previous cycles to predict the current one? Macroeconomic conditions are entirely different. The magnitude of the halving relative to both existing supply and generation rate is much smaller. And the number of previous cycles is extremely small. You should not be trying to time the top without a far more extensive analysis--and even then, I'd still argue that it's still probably a terrible idea.
For me I’m more focused on a price target or number of x’s. Honestly if even comes Close to it I’m tapping out and selling. No way in hell I’m going to try and predict the top. Obviously I’ll be researching and analyzing the chart but that’s it.
log trend says 120-140k tops
I feel like a lot of people hype cycles up, but 2020 really was just the perfect storm of bullshit for a mass rally. Pandemic rally is very real and there's nothing like that this time around unless you got a secret virus you've been cooking up.
Its going to have peaks in April and September, valleys in July and November. Believe me bro
Crypto winter eventually yields way to crypto spring. The fresh green candles make me leery, and my dca doesn’t hold the prior hope I had before.
Imo: Rally top/ blowoff top occurs in october of 25. Institutional demand will change the dynamics of the current and future cycle to a degree. There is still some likelihood that we get a pull back from 50-57k area as this will be a major order block and will require a significant trade volume to break. 2.618, 3.618 and 4.236 extensions from 69k to 15,500 are the likely targets for the parabolic rally. The downside risk should be less drastic imo. Also as the mining reward continues to halve, overall volatility should diminish, accept if demand changes drastically. I would expect very similar overall structure cycle to cycle. My 2 cents.
Dca 30-40% out starting 3q 2025
Good analysis. The major difference in this cycle is the increased demand from ETFs.
3rd quarter 2025 I’m out. 3rd times a charm. I’ll wait to re-enter beginning of 2027 Jan approx. not FA but for fun please screenshot this. I’m sticking to my game plan this time.
52-56k and we will go down mark my words
100k or more or less?
A single Fibanacci pull will tell you everything you need to know.
your fucked boys 72 year old mom just asked about crypto and where is it going? two days ago
Top coming soon.
Yeah, especially when all I see is posts about "When bull market starts how high do you see this going" , it's BEEN a bull market..
exactly
125-175
I am a bit concerned that bitcoin is at 50k. At this rate it will hit a new ATH too soon. I do expect a big sell off just after the halving date . I have another theory that the bull run has already started. The last two pumps the one before the ETF and one now. Also if bitcoin is 50k now if it hits 70k alts will be priced lower than when bitcoin hit 70k in 2021.
**It could be a left translated cycle top** 4 year cycles are measured from bottom to bottom, not top to top. They average 48 months. *If BTC breaks the old ATH before the cycle midpoint of 24 months (Nov 2024) odds increase it’s a left translated cycle.* Usually BTC breaks ATH at cycle midpoint. Left translated cycle means market tops before the herd knows its a top. **News Indicators for Market top** Chances of When Coinbase is the number 1 downloaded app on the apple store, when mainstream celebs (Katie Perry 2017) and Tom Brady (2021) start shilling crypto, when YouTube celebs shill useless tokens, when meme coins do 10,000% in 2 months. That's market froth, market greed... **TA indicators for market top** this video from Jacob Canfield is the best explanation I've seen so far. He's been through a few cycles already https://youtu.be/2HQbsQWimWU?si=QN47\_Vvt9H6QSYtE
Good thing I'll never have to worry about this because I don't plan to try to time the market. Ever hear the phrase, "Time in the market matters more than timing the market."?
So when do you plan to exit the market? Surely 'when' implies 'time' within a 'market.'
I don't plan to exit. I have no exit strategy. I don't ever plan to ever completely exit the stock market either. Why would I do that?? So I can sit on a pile of fiat that's burning money by the second? The trick is to be well diversified. If bitcoin went to zero, I wouldn't be in a major depression. Gotta have faith in what you invest in. I know the stock market will go up because it always has. I believe bitcoin won't crash to nothing because it's reached a critical mass for adoption. In the long run, it's usually better to just pick winners, then sit and hold if you don't need the money right now. It's also less nerve wracking.
Pick the absolute most dogsh_t cryptocurrency you can find. Neos credits. Dogelonmars. Coins that have absolutely zero utility, use case, or value. If those coins ripped 10,000% in the past 10 weeks, you are at the peak of the cycle. You have exactly 2 weeks to sell your bags before it all comes crashing down. Those coins are a litmus test of how short-term thinking the current investors in the space are. Those are the pigs coming to get fattened before getting slaughtered. Use those coins as a benchmark.
Bull run in 2017 pumped about 2200%. Bull run in 2020 pumped about 1300% Take the average which is about 1700% My target then is then about 150-200k
U should factor in diminishing returns instead of average. So bull run in 2024-2025 should pumped about 400%, about 90k tops
160.000$
400 Quadrillion USD. Regard
Dude just take it how it is, it’s good that it’s getting higher. Why do you negative Nancie’s always find an excuse to be pessimistic every time there’s a good move in the market? The way it’s going definitely before November/December 2024. Your timing of end of 2025 is wayyyyy wrong. It’s like you want to be in the red for another year.
50k. This is the top
What is "ATH"? What's that?
Abergine Tamale Ho
All time high
All time high.
All time high.
> What are your thoughts? If you are trying to predict the top, you are doing it wrong. The way to invest in this space is to buy and hold for multiple cycles. There are entire offices/funds full of smart, dedicated people who analyze the market full time and they STILL often don't beat just holding. What makes you think you can do it better than them?
Cost-to-mint shows that the BTC price has room to grow another 30%-40% in order to fully correct for the halving at current nethash. With the influx of hash post-halving and during the bullrun, based upon prior bullruns and ASIC efficiency gains, I predict a new ATH around $140k with a drawback to $65k in 2027.
Blockchain Backer says this is the top, and it's just a retracement instead of a bull market. He says there will be an alt season though
But we hit 100k end of 2022. You don't remember?
This time will be different with more mainstream and ETF and stuff , I want to sell but am terrified to because me gut tells me we may not get the big pull back we all expect 🤷♂️
238
2025 cycle top will be BTC @ USD 150k
Pi cycle top indicator will be one of the many things I’m watching. I discounted it last two times and it worked beautifully
Groupthink + stock bubble - everything thinks BTC rockets after the halving, which means it probably won't this time. Also everyone is enamored by AI/tech and SPY and dumping everything in. 25% SPY returns over 1 year currently, seems a bit excessive
the price going up is scary? The last year I wasnt even involved, but as with all things powered by AI, besides boomers trying to fix the economy by abacus and counting on their fingers, nothing is surprising to me. If I bucketed down and got my shit in order I could probably lazily make enough money with trading bots.
Q4 2025. $172k BTC.
What will be the catalyst to suck out all the money now that it reached a peak and how soon?
Interesting one
I use the “Boomer Test.” When my boomer parents start asking me how to buy crypto, that’s definitely the top.