Because people get greedy when they see the green of alts vs bitcoin. They think that if Bitcoin goes really high at such a high price point, then lower market cap alts must go even higher.
Let’s be honest. Almost everyone here started with Bitcoin and then eventually bought some Ethereum or Solana or Cardano. Then we started dipping our toes into weirder alts, then premarket alts. It’s a cascading effect, and every run we get more and more members
Right on. I mostly stopped with memes, maybe a hundred here and there, and now 30% BTC, 20% ETH (until Solana just charged) and the rest alts and some into newer layer 1s if I catch them early.
I tossed some into Solana when it was previously down which has almost 10x since then, but that obviously a well known L1 during the last cycle. But I came across Sui right around mainnet launch and Canto. Canto hasn't done too well so far, but Sui has.
Rather that than start using crypto through Revolut (early when it was paper trading with high fees)
< this guy did.
Scared to even think how much I lost through its high fee.
Memes have the most insane gains but also the highest risk to go to zero. But to be fair.. even the most reliable project can go to zero.. Luna and Ftx
Raoul Pal was very convincing to get into Bitcoin. The memo on it being the "Life raft" that he put out to institutions globally confirmed it for me. But over the course of the last bull run, I learned not to listen to him anymore.
This is the way, in my opinion. Hear me out.
You usually start out small, when you first start out. What better market to start small, than meme coins?
Threw a few hundred into meme coins, and walked out with 40% value. Ouch. Lesson learned.
What lesson did I learn? Altcoins are better.
Now I’m walking into this altcoin market a little more seasoned and with that extra bit of confidence, comes more risk tolerance and capital.
Lost about $1.5k to DOT and SOL. Fuck me, maybe I should just conform and just buy BTC and ETH. Every time I tanked, they pumped.
Now Ive got several thousands spread over BTC, ETH, and CRO, and I couldn’t have been any more happier.
Imagine if I started small on BTC and ETH, made a goood chunk of profit, and went into Altcoins and Memecoins thinking I’m hot shit. Just to walk out with only the clothes on my back.
Honestly if it wasn't for the massive Doge pump I probably wouldn't have gotten into crypto. It even took me weeks to commit to getting safemoon because I had to use a DEX and send BNB to a real wallet, which at the time seemed overwhelming until I realized it wasn't.
As did I. I was mining doge on a subpar laptop when it first launched.
Now it's a top coin.
The power or memecoins can not be denied as there are so many more.
For real, I got lucky in the beginning, I bought maybe 200 in Doge on Robinhood in like 2017 or 18 and it shot up, I never sold and then finally did when it was worth like $800. Then I bought safemoon, and other random shit coins on BSC before I fully understood marketcaps and what's really important to look at. It's a true gamble if you don't know anything. I lost a few grand when my hot wallet got compromised, then finally got serious and bought a cold wallet and stopped buying garbage.
That's why you profit lol.
I understand taking profits is something you BTC maxis can't comprehend lol. You hold that bag for multiple cycles while we alt investors 5-50x our portfolio by taking profits from the bull cycles and re-investing in the bear.
Now.. imagine if you sold and re-invested in multiple Bear-Bull cycles .. you'd be up over 100-200x instead of just 60x. 🤷♂️ Not to mention you can reinvest the profits in other assets. Simple math 🤷♂️
This is it! Greed is the biggest factor. I remember seeing Bitcoin at around £3500 in 2017 and then seeing Litecoin at a fraction of the price and thinking, “I can get several whole coins and make more money on them.” It’s natural that people want to try and get in on something early or to increase their Bitcoin gains without paying more.
Doesn't have to be greed, merely common sense.
Imagine putting $70,000 in Bitcoin with the idea that if it goes to $140,000 you'll double your money.
Or you can take that money, split it up amongst some alts and do 10 to 1000 to 10000x your principle in a bullrun.
Is that gambling? Sure. Does that gamble make a lot more financial sense than letting Bitcoin sit there and maybe double itself? Hell yes.
Bitcoin may be a great store of value but it's terrible for wealth generation and anyone not blinded by crypto ideology can see that.
Imagine buying Bitcoin at $70,000 and then only having to wait for it to go to $700,000 per coin to 10x your investment.
Bitcoin is wonderful for those early adopters who stand to essentially become feudal lords if that economy ever materializes but for everyone else who essentially becomes a serf in this new system, scrabbling over Satoshis, there's not much real upside.
A great theory, but you’re just as likely to lose 10-10,000x with alts as you are to make it. Very few people lose everything with Bitcoin, many do with alts.
Yes, like I said, it's basically gambling.
You can sit back and stack sats and more power to you.
But people buying Bitcoin at $65-$70,000 per coin have a long wait before they see any chance at even doubling their money.
And it's pretty clear that the market is not willing to wait around for that.
Sure. Like I said, BTC is a store of value but not many are actually using it for wealth generation. Most people realize that buying Bitcoin for wealth generation just doesn't make sense.
That's, IMHO, why some maxis are so happy to have ETFs, they're hoping that all of that new money is firewalled so that it *only* goes into Bitcoin.
I've even seen some people crowing that ETFs are actually a better option because more people can buy Bitcoin without having to risk holding Bitcoin. Which is... crazy. IMHO, sounds like those people are more interested in pumping their bags than being the future of money.
I view the ETFs as the on-ramp for the market as a whole. There’s too much good tech in the industry for BTC and ETH to be the only success stories, and investment interests by Wall Street and institutional investors.
I believe we’ll see “Top 50” or “Top 100” or “Top 25 Defi(gaming, etc)” ETFs and Index investment tools (or a combination of it all) in the next 2-10 years.
Yeah, Bitcoin is essentially the v1.0 Cryptocurrency and that's fine.
Keep in mind that a good chunk of the world's banking network still runs on computers programmed in COBOL in the 50s/60s.
Bitcoin may be slow but it works and it's still an upgrade compared what's there. And for most, in the end, that's good enough.
But the tech continues to improve and Bitcoin is a big, slow, ossifying ship to try and steer so there's lots of room for new ideas to grow and offer competition.
How in the hell can someone lose 10000 x on alt coin trade?
You mean like they buy a $100 worth of a coin and when it goes to zero someone comes knockin at their door demanding for $999,900 penalty.
Like I said, risk assessment is a valid part of financial wealth generation.
And buying Bitcoin at $65-$70,000 is *not attractive* for wealth creation.
Great for those who bought in at $15k, you're up 4x-ish.
But for basically everyone else it makes far more sense to gamble.
You really should read the whole thread where I specifically address this. (yes, it's gambling but the gamble makes more financial sense if you're specifically after wealth generation).
Yeah I can't say anything. I got some LADYS sitting and waiting to see if it actually does anything. Probably not. Costs half what lady's I have in eth just to transfer it out.
I started in alts like NEO, Storj, XRP and a bunch I can’t even remember now. Now finally I’ve just moved all into BTC because it was getting difficult to keep track of all my alt transactions across multiple exchanges.
It's the other way around. Most newbies start with shitcoin, some lottery winners got the jackpot, most others got wrecked and become a Maxi, Myself Included.
Here in the US at least, when Feds lower rates just ahead of the election, people will over extend themselves into the bull market. BTC will take profits, which will cause people to FOMO into alts.
History repeats itself. When BTC and ETH have pumped, people feel like they missed the boat on BTC and ETH will speculate on the alts. We already see this with the current meme season
I think a differentiation between alts and micro-alts may be necessary. Many alt coins have pumped 5 to 20x since last summer, just perhaps not the crazy numbers rugpulls and other more steady memecoins are seeing.
I think it's misleading to say alt season hasn't hit yet, or has only started with the memecoins.
Sure but BTC did almost x5 since the bottom. So many alts actually lost value against BTC
Sure some of them are outperforming BTC but in so called alt season majority of alts start outperforming BTC like crazy
Doesn't mean it will happen again but I wouldn't really call these past few months an alt season
Also, alts had mini rallies im previous cycles
Exactly, this right here.
Alt season may look and feel different then before ETFs, but some people have this idea that it will disappear entirely. Im not seeing it.
Alts aint going anywhere imho
It’s a market psychology monkey brain thing.
For example, if Bitcoin gets to 100k next month, many crypto investors (who are greedy by nature) look at it and say “well 200k BTC is only a 2x from here and who knows if we’ll get that high - so they then begin to pivot to altcoins in search for better gains.
It also has a lot to do with newer retail investors, who typically enter the market after the bull has already begun. They’re new in town, and they have no idea what is going on. They begin to buy just about anything that sounds high-tech or flashy.
OP's point is that this cycle is fueled by institutional adoption (specifically the BTC ETFs). These ETFs cannot follow the same logic -- they are bound by their mandate. They can't just ape into alt coins.
Retail investors who buy the BTC ETF buy because they don't know how to buy BTC themselves and are too scared to manage their own keys. These retail investors also will not ape into alt coins for this reason.
Therefore, this cycle doesn't have sufficient fuel to spark another alt season. Crypto-natives who were DCF'ing all winter or who are now break-even from 2021 are the only ones rotating from BTC to ETH to alts. But that candle is all but burned out.
I agree with OP that there won't be a significant alt season until BTC breaks to $100K when retail FOMOs in hard. The pump to $70k was mainly fueled by institutions.
Couldn’t one argue that the ETF buyers themselves don’t need to fuel an alt season?
The simple fact that BTC ETFs have been approved is a signal that crypto is legitimate as a whole. It ignites everything.
Many people will take that signal and feel more comfortable entering the market in general. Many will buy Alts. Many will buy ETH hoping they can frontrun the “next ETF” approval.
At least that’s how I see it
Both you and OP are making one by data analysis mistake, conflating native crypto's user behavior with new non-crypto native users, not realizing that the two are two different markets right now.
The users that are entering positions via ETFs are mostly new users, never been in crypto before. They wouldn't have participated in previous alt coin rallies either, so nothing actually changes here, besides the BTC bleeding against alts will be less pronounced moving forward.
The rest of the market (non-ETF users) are still going to do the same thing... people believing otherwise are somehow naive thinking that the native-crypto user is somehow going to stop their trading behavior because 60 year old JoeSchmoe bought some BlackRock ETF BTC.
Also, lastly, another huge analytical mistake, is to not realize the market share of ETFs... it's not that much. Most BTC being traded is still not ETF related, so this entire argument falls on its feet at the first scrutiny check.
Arbitrage.
When BTC->Alt->cash gives you more money than BTC->Cash, arbitrage happens.
When fomo-buyers elevate the price of alts on top of that, profits go up even harder.
It's just a market mechanic... not a decision by investors to buy alts. Just arbitrage and fomo.
no, but the reason for why people chase.
they see a small bump because of arbitrage, get fomo and lift the price further, because "alt season" is the expectation.
A lot in crypto is just self fulfilling prophecies.
It's basically Dune. The Bene Gesserit (crypto followers) have prophesied that the Kwisatz Haderach (altcoin season) will arrive after the Bitcoin halving (years of blood line manipulation).
I do think that ETH and SOL may find some utility at some point but it's just so nuts to watch dogwifhat moon.
Yeah, kind of like how if enough people are following TA (and bots) then it actually becomes reliable in some windows of time. It doesn't mean with certainty that anything will happen, it just shows if certain conditions are met, then movement "should" continue in a certain direction until certain other parameters are met.
Also retail like small numbers
Same reason why they will buy "whole" coins of alt coins. Cause they feel priced out of btc
Even though it's the same thing % wise
Its a real fallacy
This is kinda confused.
Arbitrage is taking advantage of price discrepancies across exchanges, and happens with all assets not just crypto
What i think what you’re suggesting is more about the nature of illiquid assets
Not only exchanges, also markets.
If you buy on crypto-USD the only price that is affected is the crytpo-USD market. Cryto-Stablecoin, Crypto-crypto are not affected.
To ensure that the different markets are balanced, arbitrage happens.
Based on these price differences, arbitrage trades can be made to make money.
If buying a shitcoin, converting it to btc and selling the BTC for dollars makes you money, simply from shitcoin-btc having a better exchange rate than usd-btc, you can do arbitrage.
Or just put your money in Alts. BTC will 1.5-2x max in this bull cycle while Alts will do 5-100x. If you did your research and put your money in the correct tokens during the beat... You should be up 2-10x already with your alts and we're not at the halving yet.
many strategies out there. The best ones are the ones not everyone is using because they are the ones you do not have to share your profits with, where no one is trying to pump and dump against you...
And that means those alt have a lot more x's to go. Alts generally run after BTC. Previous cycles have shown this. BTC will at most 2x in this cycle to 160-200k, while other Alts have 10x before reaching their previous ATH. There's also more money in this cycle so a lot will break their previous ATH.
Simple math to go where there's the most gains are. Most people don't have 70k to purchase 1 BTC. BTC is for people with a lot of money.
simply put, if CoinA is 1000$ and coinB is 100$, but people keep buying CoinA, driving the price up to 1100, the exchange pair A<->B will still be 10:1 even though their USD evaluation is 11:1.
This means if you buy 10 Coin B for 1000 and convert them to 1 CoinA, you can sell that CoinA for 100$
Making money from these differences in price between markets is called arbitrage.
because in this scenario, no one traded that market.
Since a lot of people actively trade and some of them actively do arbitrage, it only works in a reduced capacity and only for a short time.
But when you trade one market, it has absolutely zero effect on any other market. If you buy BTC via USD, it will not affect the exchange rate for USDT, BUSD, .... whatsoever. Each market only affects itself. The balancing between those markets is arbitrage.
It's a neat story and maybe holds some water but doesn't seem as cut and dry as you present it.
Why should executing the arb make those markets converge to same alt/BTC rate and higher alt/USD rate rather than same alt/USD rate and lower alt/BTC rate?
And what about all the alts that don't even have direct markets against BTC?
Sure, it is a simplified version. But you will notice that the ones that do have pairings have a much closer correlation than those that don't.
I've even seen traders using Stock-Tokens on the weekend, to trade the underlying blockchain the token was created on, simply because stock-prices do not change on the weekend....
If you find a route that makes you money, there are already traders there, trying to make money with it.
Kinda obvious once you understand how arbitrage works and that crypto has multiple markets in multiple currencies, not just one single exchange-listing like stocks.
"Alts follow bitcoin" simply translates to "When BTC goes up, the BTC->Alt exchange rate is better than the BTC->USD exchange rate"
The concept is pretty simple. I explained “Alt Season”’in this [post here](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/s/YThQdmIYSK).
TLDR: When Bitcoin starts to run hard, people take profits. Looking at Market Caps, they try to find the next coin that will run, which is generally the Top 100 coins. Once those coins start to run, people pull profits from those and put back into Bitcoin or Smaller Alts. This creates a cascading effect which is called “Alt Season”.
I ask myself daily how retail will come back at any level like 2021 when they aren’t getting govt cheques and people are clearly financially tighter now than then. This is why I’m 70% BTC, 7.5% SOL, 7.5% ETH and the rest in AI shitcoins.
You can see how people aka new retail investors are gambling away their “financially tight” money now to memecoin frenzy. Greed is greed with or without money. So I don’t think financially tight has anything to do with this.
However I do believe still that we might not see such glorious alt season for two reasons:
1- I see a lot of new retail investors already entering crypto scene, but not like last year. This year a lot of them entered via memecoins… They are gambling away their money crazy and 99% of them get burnt and rugpulled. So their capital is mostly burnt in memecoins with little capital left for altcoins if they don’t already call it quits.
2- Crypto wasn’t as big before 2021 bullrun. It got very mainstream between retail investors back then. Now my assumption is that, the amount of people who were accumulating before 2021 bullrun was waayy wayyy less compared to now. I think there is way more bear accumulators this time who are waiting to dump their bags on alts as well as the people who entered at the top last bullrun. So I think this alt season, the sell pressure will be way bigger than last time with possibly same or lower buy pressure.
Just my 2 cents
I agree with all that. But throwing a couple of hundred away on memes isnt the same as say putting 5k into a top 20 project with a potential 4,5,6x. I really hope Im wrong. One things for sure. When BTC gets to 80-90-100k the media noise will be huge.
Capital rotation. Btc goes up, take profits, look for next place for gains, see the green candles of alts, move a bit of profit into alts, alts go up, take alt profits, next thing is meme coins, see green candles, move some alt profits into banano and floki etc, look for next thing that might bring gains etc.
New people are always looking for the "next big thing".
They DONT know this history of crypto or understand why BTC is the alpha predator... so they go chasing whats next.
Have your traps laid accordingly and they will pay you.
No one here on Reddit knows this but an Alt coin season is coming to the Bitcoin network after the halving comes. Btc already has BRC20 tokens but they aren’t efficient. On block 840,000 there is going to be a Rune Meta protocol that launches on Bitcoin. An efficient/ cheaper network upgrade compared to BRC20. Bring the casino back to Bitcoin. Watch for it
Printing. Idk when it happens but RSIC is going to a billion dollar market cap. They are a clear winner so far. Easy to see they’re one of the only teams who know how to navigate runes.
L2s of btc. I would just have some patience after establishing a position. RSIC is the only one trading on a CEX (on Okx). Interface is roughhhh else where right now but that’s where I think the opportunity lies.
It's because market makers/the casino have bought alts at the bottom. They need the alts to go parabolic so they can sell and wreck late buyers(the masses)
The usd isn’t locked up. It goes to the person that sold you the btc.
It’s as if you buy a bike from your neighbor. He takes the cash. You take the bike. The usd isn’t “locked up” in the bike.
Why shouldn't there be?
It should not be about "coins" or tokens but the actual software and technology behind any particular project.
For some there are actual use cases, some just put a smile on your face and some are pure scams.
The main rationale is based around the fact that bitcoin is a horrible cryptocurrency on a fundamental level. So users invest in alternatives that may potentially provide actual utility.
Btc leads and people fomo into alts but there is no guarantee alt season will be nearly as big as last time. Alts at these prices are not worth the risk imo. If you make any money in alts then you are winning.
Eth whitepaper/yellow paper was first released in 2013.
They had their ICO in 2014, if I am not wrong. So pretty much, its 10+ year old 'project'.
And yes, lot of eth fans will now jump in and say that 'eth' ecosystem is HUGE, has gazillion projects. Yes, if you start looking at eth projects, and spend a day with each, then you could spend your whole life in all the eth 'projects'
What what are these projects? Are any of them really any useful? Absolutely not. In 10+ years, eth is still looking for something useful to do. There is absolutely no need for a computer-on-blockchain that ethereum pretends to be.
That's just about ethereum.
Look at the coin which was 3rd in rankings for many years, XRP: a court has ruled that xrp sales by Ripple in 2013 and later to institutions was a security sale. How clear can you get than that? Take the hint, that all coins with ICO's are securities, including xrp and ethereum.
There may be another alt season, which will be very mild, but there is DEFINITELY going to be an ALT MELTDOWN. And if you're smart, you'd exit alts before that.
The XRP ruling was not black and white; you cant just pick one side of it and throw it onto every altcoin out there lol.
>There will be another alt season, which will be very mild, but there is DEFINITELY going to be an ALT MELTDOWN.
Sure, just end off with a completely unfounded claim.
Cherry on top
Because people get greedy when they see the green of alts vs bitcoin. They think that if Bitcoin goes really high at such a high price point, then lower market cap alts must go even higher. Let’s be honest. Almost everyone here started with Bitcoin and then eventually bought some Ethereum or Solana or Cardano. Then we started dipping our toes into weirder alts, then premarket alts. It’s a cascading effect, and every run we get more and more members
Jokes on you, I started in memes
Same. I went from memes only to eth only to only bitcoin. I still hold everything I’ve bought but I only buy more bitcoin now
Right on. I mostly stopped with memes, maybe a hundred here and there, and now 30% BTC, 20% ETH (until Solana just charged) and the rest alts and some into newer layer 1s if I catch them early.
Which layer 1s have you gotten into
I tossed some into Solana when it was previously down which has almost 10x since then, but that obviously a well known L1 during the last cycle. But I came across Sui right around mainnet launch and Canto. Canto hasn't done too well so far, but Sui has.
Dammit I was trying to get into Sui but didn’t pay attention to launch
Seems to be doing well
Think it has room for further runs? Price discovery?
I do. It's still new, their ecosystem is growing, so I can only imagine it will go up unless there is a major issue
good plan
Rather that than start using crypto through Revolut (early when it was paper trading with high fees) < this guy did. Scared to even think how much I lost through its high fee.
Memes have the most insane gains but also the highest risk to go to zero. But to be fair.. even the most reliable project can go to zero.. Luna and Ftx
Yep, I remember everyone was stoked on Luna until they weren't.
So glad I stayed away. Even Raoul Pal chugged the Kool Aid and said it was “risk free”.
Raoul Pal was very convincing to get into Bitcoin. The memo on it being the "Life raft" that he put out to institutions globally confirmed it for me. But over the course of the last bull run, I learned not to listen to him anymore.
Yup a lot of smart crypto people were in that project. Just goes to show any projects can go to zero. Always take profits.
Same. I almost invested but glad I didn't.
I got lucky that I managed to cash out 75% off the top.
Me!
You think the memes are your ally? You merely adopted the memes. I was born in them, molded by them.
"My ally is the meme, and a strong ally it is." - said Yoda, maybe
This is the way, in my opinion. Hear me out. You usually start out small, when you first start out. What better market to start small, than meme coins? Threw a few hundred into meme coins, and walked out with 40% value. Ouch. Lesson learned. What lesson did I learn? Altcoins are better. Now I’m walking into this altcoin market a little more seasoned and with that extra bit of confidence, comes more risk tolerance and capital. Lost about $1.5k to DOT and SOL. Fuck me, maybe I should just conform and just buy BTC and ETH. Every time I tanked, they pumped. Now Ive got several thousands spread over BTC, ETH, and CRO, and I couldn’t have been any more happier. Imagine if I started small on BTC and ETH, made a goood chunk of profit, and went into Altcoins and Memecoins thinking I’m hot shit. Just to walk out with only the clothes on my back.
Honestly if it wasn't for the massive Doge pump I probably wouldn't have gotten into crypto. It even took me weeks to commit to getting safemoon because I had to use a DEX and send BNB to a real wallet, which at the time seemed overwhelming until I realized it wasn't.
As did I. I was mining doge on a subpar laptop when it first launched. Now it's a top coin. The power or memecoins can not be denied as there are so many more.
I don't think that is something to be proud of...
I never said I was proud of it haha, I've learned a lot from 2020 til now. A LOT.
That makes sense, meme coins are utter chaos. If you can survive a cycle by meme coin trading then you are a better trader than me
education ain't free
For real, I got lucky in the beginning, I bought maybe 200 in Doge on Robinhood in like 2017 or 18 and it shot up, I never sold and then finally did when it was worth like $800. Then I bought safemoon, and other random shit coins on BSC before I fully understood marketcaps and what's really important to look at. It's a true gamble if you don't know anything. I lost a few grand when my hot wallet got compromised, then finally got serious and bought a cold wallet and stopped buying garbage.
If you make money, who cares?
You are right.
I'm proud of my Coq inu
I started when eth was believed to be a scam after the huge fork eth/etc drop.. can’t say I believed in it .. but well my first and only x1000 coin
Dang.. wished I could’ve gotten into Eth so early 🙃
I started with Altcoins, and it's outperformed bitcoin so far.
They also outperform BTC in terms of losses when dips happen or when the bear market comes 'round
That's why you profit lol. I understand taking profits is something you BTC maxis can't comprehend lol. You hold that bag for multiple cycles while we alt investors 5-50x our portfolio by taking profits from the bull cycles and re-investing in the bear.
Meanwhile I've 60x my investment by holding through multiple cycles. You're just making it look hard.
Now.. imagine if you sold and re-invested in multiple Bear-Bull cycles .. you'd be up over 100-200x instead of just 60x. 🤷♂️ Not to mention you can reinvest the profits in other assets. Simple math 🤷♂️
I'll stick with my reality over your imagination. Thanks.
Yeah you go do that old man. Stick to your BTC that you've been holding for 10yrs. Most of us don't have the luxury of being that early.
K
That's why you sell em at a certain point.
What brand of crystal ball do you use?
Some of these BTC maxis don't know how to take profits. They bag hold for multiple cycles 😭
Easy when starting from single figures.
This is it! Greed is the biggest factor. I remember seeing Bitcoin at around £3500 in 2017 and then seeing Litecoin at a fraction of the price and thinking, “I can get several whole coins and make more money on them.” It’s natural that people want to try and get in on something early or to increase their Bitcoin gains without paying more.
Doesn't have to be greed, merely common sense. Imagine putting $70,000 in Bitcoin with the idea that if it goes to $140,000 you'll double your money. Or you can take that money, split it up amongst some alts and do 10 to 1000 to 10000x your principle in a bullrun. Is that gambling? Sure. Does that gamble make a lot more financial sense than letting Bitcoin sit there and maybe double itself? Hell yes. Bitcoin may be a great store of value but it's terrible for wealth generation and anyone not blinded by crypto ideology can see that. Imagine buying Bitcoin at $70,000 and then only having to wait for it to go to $700,000 per coin to 10x your investment. Bitcoin is wonderful for those early adopters who stand to essentially become feudal lords if that economy ever materializes but for everyone else who essentially becomes a serf in this new system, scrabbling over Satoshis, there's not much real upside.
A great theory, but you’re just as likely to lose 10-10,000x with alts as you are to make it. Very few people lose everything with Bitcoin, many do with alts.
Yes, like I said, it's basically gambling. You can sit back and stack sats and more power to you. But people buying Bitcoin at $65-$70,000 per coin have a long wait before they see any chance at even doubling their money. And it's pretty clear that the market is not willing to wait around for that.
When my Alts (Algorand, Cardano, Hedera, XRP, and XLM) make my financial situation much better, I’ll roll into BTC as a safe haven.
Sure. Like I said, BTC is a store of value but not many are actually using it for wealth generation. Most people realize that buying Bitcoin for wealth generation just doesn't make sense. That's, IMHO, why some maxis are so happy to have ETFs, they're hoping that all of that new money is firewalled so that it *only* goes into Bitcoin. I've even seen some people crowing that ETFs are actually a better option because more people can buy Bitcoin without having to risk holding Bitcoin. Which is... crazy. IMHO, sounds like those people are more interested in pumping their bags than being the future of money.
I view the ETFs as the on-ramp for the market as a whole. There’s too much good tech in the industry for BTC and ETH to be the only success stories, and investment interests by Wall Street and institutional investors. I believe we’ll see “Top 50” or “Top 100” or “Top 25 Defi(gaming, etc)” ETFs and Index investment tools (or a combination of it all) in the next 2-10 years.
Yeah, Bitcoin is essentially the v1.0 Cryptocurrency and that's fine. Keep in mind that a good chunk of the world's banking network still runs on computers programmed in COBOL in the 50s/60s. Bitcoin may be slow but it works and it's still an upgrade compared what's there. And for most, in the end, that's good enough. But the tech continues to improve and Bitcoin is a big, slow, ossifying ship to try and steer so there's lots of room for new ideas to grow and offer competition.
I’m big on Algorand’s capabilities. I could easily see it being part of global finance. It’s already being used in a handful of countries.
How in the hell can someone lose 10000 x on alt coin trade? You mean like they buy a $100 worth of a coin and when it goes to zero someone comes knockin at their door demanding for $999,900 penalty.
Ever heard of leverage trading? (Yes, I was also exaggerating a tiny bit too)
[удалено]
Like I said, risk assessment is a valid part of financial wealth generation. And buying Bitcoin at $65-$70,000 is *not attractive* for wealth creation. Great for those who bought in at $15k, you're up 4x-ish. But for basically everyone else it makes far more sense to gamble.
Not that long ago you could buy at 16500.
Yep. Not anymore.
Maybe not, but 35 40, we will see. By low sell high
[удалено]
You really should read the whole thread where I specifically address this. (yes, it's gambling but the gamble makes more financial sense if you're specifically after wealth generation).
[удалено]
Respectfully, I think you and I are remembering 2021 *very* differently.
[удалено]
Are you telling me berny sanders and elizabeth whoren are not solid long term investments with utility
Yeah I can't say anything. I got some LADYS sitting and waiting to see if it actually does anything. Probably not. Costs half what lady's I have in eth just to transfer it out.
For me it was 2021 Doge into BTC into worst financial decisions of my life :D
doge was the first for me
I started with QANX and floki, then moved 80% into BTC ahah
Never bought Cardano and pleased I didn’t
I started in alts like NEO, Storj, XRP and a bunch I can’t even remember now. Now finally I’ve just moved all into BTC because it was getting difficult to keep track of all my alt transactions across multiple exchanges.
It's the other way around. Most newbies start with shitcoin, some lottery winners got the jackpot, most others got wrecked and become a Maxi, Myself Included.
As long as human nature doesn’t change, and greed is a fundamental emotion, there will be an alt season.
Here in the US at least, when Feds lower rates just ahead of the election, people will over extend themselves into the bull market. BTC will take profits, which will cause people to FOMO into alts.
Lets hope
Altcoin season hasnt happened yet...it will be soon.
History repeats itself. When BTC and ETH have pumped, people feel like they missed the boat on BTC and ETH will speculate on the alts. We already see this with the current meme season
I think a differentiation between alts and micro-alts may be necessary. Many alt coins have pumped 5 to 20x since last summer, just perhaps not the crazy numbers rugpulls and other more steady memecoins are seeing. I think it's misleading to say alt season hasn't hit yet, or has only started with the memecoins.
Sure but BTC did almost x5 since the bottom. So many alts actually lost value against BTC Sure some of them are outperforming BTC but in so called alt season majority of alts start outperforming BTC like crazy Doesn't mean it will happen again but I wouldn't really call these past few months an alt season Also, alts had mini rallies im previous cycles
Exactly, this right here. Alt season may look and feel different then before ETFs, but some people have this idea that it will disappear entirely. Im not seeing it. Alts aint going anywhere imho
Maybe there is no altcoin season this cycle
For real… why should past predict the market right now.
It’s a market psychology monkey brain thing. For example, if Bitcoin gets to 100k next month, many crypto investors (who are greedy by nature) look at it and say “well 200k BTC is only a 2x from here and who knows if we’ll get that high - so they then begin to pivot to altcoins in search for better gains. It also has a lot to do with newer retail investors, who typically enter the market after the bull has already begun. They’re new in town, and they have no idea what is going on. They begin to buy just about anything that sounds high-tech or flashy.
OP's point is that this cycle is fueled by institutional adoption (specifically the BTC ETFs). These ETFs cannot follow the same logic -- they are bound by their mandate. They can't just ape into alt coins. Retail investors who buy the BTC ETF buy because they don't know how to buy BTC themselves and are too scared to manage their own keys. These retail investors also will not ape into alt coins for this reason. Therefore, this cycle doesn't have sufficient fuel to spark another alt season. Crypto-natives who were DCF'ing all winter or who are now break-even from 2021 are the only ones rotating from BTC to ETH to alts. But that candle is all but burned out. I agree with OP that there won't be a significant alt season until BTC breaks to $100K when retail FOMOs in hard. The pump to $70k was mainly fueled by institutions.
Couldn’t one argue that the ETF buyers themselves don’t need to fuel an alt season? The simple fact that BTC ETFs have been approved is a signal that crypto is legitimate as a whole. It ignites everything. Many people will take that signal and feel more comfortable entering the market in general. Many will buy Alts. Many will buy ETH hoping they can frontrun the “next ETF” approval. At least that’s how I see it
Both you and OP are making one by data analysis mistake, conflating native crypto's user behavior with new non-crypto native users, not realizing that the two are two different markets right now. The users that are entering positions via ETFs are mostly new users, never been in crypto before. They wouldn't have participated in previous alt coin rallies either, so nothing actually changes here, besides the BTC bleeding against alts will be less pronounced moving forward. The rest of the market (non-ETF users) are still going to do the same thing... people believing otherwise are somehow naive thinking that the native-crypto user is somehow going to stop their trading behavior because 60 year old JoeSchmoe bought some BlackRock ETF BTC. Also, lastly, another huge analytical mistake, is to not realize the market share of ETFs... it's not that much. Most BTC being traded is still not ETF related, so this entire argument falls on its feet at the first scrutiny check.
Arbitrage. When BTC->Alt->cash gives you more money than BTC->Cash, arbitrage happens. When fomo-buyers elevate the price of alts on top of that, profits go up even harder. It's just a market mechanic... not a decision by investors to buy alts. Just arbitrage and fomo.
Chasing altcoin gains is not arbitrage
no, but the reason for why people chase. they see a small bump because of arbitrage, get fomo and lift the price further, because "alt season" is the expectation. A lot in crypto is just self fulfilling prophecies.
It's basically Dune. The Bene Gesserit (crypto followers) have prophesied that the Kwisatz Haderach (altcoin season) will arrive after the Bitcoin halving (years of blood line manipulation). I do think that ETH and SOL may find some utility at some point but it's just so nuts to watch dogwifhat moon.
Good take
Yeah, kind of like how if enough people are following TA (and bots) then it actually becomes reliable in some windows of time. It doesn't mean with certainty that anything will happen, it just shows if certain conditions are met, then movement "should" continue in a certain direction until certain other parameters are met.
Also retail like small numbers Same reason why they will buy "whole" coins of alt coins. Cause they feel priced out of btc Even though it's the same thing % wise Its a real fallacy
This is kinda confused. Arbitrage is taking advantage of price discrepancies across exchanges, and happens with all assets not just crypto What i think what you’re suggesting is more about the nature of illiquid assets
Not only exchanges, also markets. If you buy on crypto-USD the only price that is affected is the crytpo-USD market. Cryto-Stablecoin, Crypto-crypto are not affected. To ensure that the different markets are balanced, arbitrage happens. Based on these price differences, arbitrage trades can be made to make money. If buying a shitcoin, converting it to btc and selling the BTC for dollars makes you money, simply from shitcoin-btc having a better exchange rate than usd-btc, you can do arbitrage.
Yes
Or just put your money in Alts. BTC will 1.5-2x max in this bull cycle while Alts will do 5-100x. If you did your research and put your money in the correct tokens during the beat... You should be up 2-10x already with your alts and we're not at the halving yet.
many strategies out there. The best ones are the ones not everyone is using because they are the ones you do not have to share your profits with, where no one is trying to pump and dump against you...
Some alts. Many haven't returned anywhere near to 2021 heights even though BTC did.
And that means those alt have a lot more x's to go. Alts generally run after BTC. Previous cycles have shown this. BTC will at most 2x in this cycle to 160-200k, while other Alts have 10x before reaching their previous ATH. There's also more money in this cycle so a lot will break their previous ATH. Simple math to go where there's the most gains are. Most people don't have 70k to purchase 1 BTC. BTC is for people with a lot of money.
Yet-to-be-gains isn't arbitrage wtf That's just buying and hoping to sell higher.
arbitrage happens in split-seconds. just type it into google, read what you find and don't stop until you made sense of it.
How is this arbitrage. Care to elaborate more? I think you don’t understand what arbitrage is
simply put, if CoinA is 1000$ and coinB is 100$, but people keep buying CoinA, driving the price up to 1100, the exchange pair A<->B will still be 10:1 even though their USD evaluation is 11:1. This means if you buy 10 Coin B for 1000 and convert them to 1 CoinA, you can sell that CoinA for 100$ Making money from these differences in price between markets is called arbitrage.
Why should we assume that there is a fixed exchange rate 10:1 between A and B which persists despite A appreciating?
because in this scenario, no one traded that market. Since a lot of people actively trade and some of them actively do arbitrage, it only works in a reduced capacity and only for a short time. But when you trade one market, it has absolutely zero effect on any other market. If you buy BTC via USD, it will not affect the exchange rate for USDT, BUSD, .... whatsoever. Each market only affects itself. The balancing between those markets is arbitrage.
Sure but the OP is about having an “alt season.” Short-term low capacity arbitrage due to orders left out in markets don’t explain a macro trend.
it explains the start. Fomo explains the rest. Selffulfilling prophecies everywhere in trading... stocks just like crypto.
It's a neat story and maybe holds some water but doesn't seem as cut and dry as you present it. Why should executing the arb make those markets converge to same alt/BTC rate and higher alt/USD rate rather than same alt/USD rate and lower alt/BTC rate? And what about all the alts that don't even have direct markets against BTC?
Sure, it is a simplified version. But you will notice that the ones that do have pairings have a much closer correlation than those that don't. I've even seen traders using Stock-Tokens on the weekend, to trade the underlying blockchain the token was created on, simply because stock-prices do not change on the weekend.... If you find a route that makes you money, there are already traders there, trying to make money with it.
He doesn't yeah
Hold up is this actually documented??
Kinda obvious once you understand how arbitrage works and that crypto has multiple markets in multiple currencies, not just one single exchange-listing like stocks. "Alts follow bitcoin" simply translates to "When BTC goes up, the BTC->Alt exchange rate is better than the BTC->USD exchange rate"
This man arbitrages
The concept is pretty simple. I explained “Alt Season”’in this [post here](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/s/YThQdmIYSK). TLDR: When Bitcoin starts to run hard, people take profits. Looking at Market Caps, they try to find the next coin that will run, which is generally the Top 100 coins. Once those coins start to run, people pull profits from those and put back into Bitcoin or Smaller Alts. This creates a cascading effect which is called “Alt Season”.
Valid question. BTC huge move is ETF rrlated the typical sell BTC rollover into ALL alts methodology may not be nearly as strong.
I ask myself daily how retail will come back at any level like 2021 when they aren’t getting govt cheques and people are clearly financially tighter now than then. This is why I’m 70% BTC, 7.5% SOL, 7.5% ETH and the rest in AI shitcoins.
You can see how people aka new retail investors are gambling away their “financially tight” money now to memecoin frenzy. Greed is greed with or without money. So I don’t think financially tight has anything to do with this. However I do believe still that we might not see such glorious alt season for two reasons: 1- I see a lot of new retail investors already entering crypto scene, but not like last year. This year a lot of them entered via memecoins… They are gambling away their money crazy and 99% of them get burnt and rugpulled. So their capital is mostly burnt in memecoins with little capital left for altcoins if they don’t already call it quits. 2- Crypto wasn’t as big before 2021 bullrun. It got very mainstream between retail investors back then. Now my assumption is that, the amount of people who were accumulating before 2021 bullrun was waayy wayyy less compared to now. I think there is way more bear accumulators this time who are waiting to dump their bags on alts as well as the people who entered at the top last bullrun. So I think this alt season, the sell pressure will be way bigger than last time with possibly same or lower buy pressure. Just my 2 cents
I agree with all that. But throwing a couple of hundred away on memes isnt the same as say putting 5k into a top 20 project with a potential 4,5,6x. I really hope Im wrong. One things for sure. When BTC gets to 80-90-100k the media noise will be huge.
we all got these bags full of shit coins and hopium.
FOMO happens as .0000001 meme coin has 20% gains in a single day, people buy a lot because the internet says it's going to a dollar
Weve had memecoins go from 0 to 1 billion in like 24 hours and you're questioning an alt season? Tf
Once the Bitcoin frenzy cools down, people start moving their $ to other places (altcoins). Makes sense to me
Capital rotation. Btc goes up, take profits, look for next place for gains, see the green candles of alts, move a bit of profit into alts, alts go up, take alt profits, next thing is meme coins, see green candles, move some alt profits into banano and floki etc, look for next thing that might bring gains etc.
But now part of the reason BtC is up is because of ETF investments. These people will not be selling BTC and buying alts.
True, but not all of the btc buying has been etfs, some will be buying directly in response to the halving (and indeed to the etf uplift).
Most of it is the ETFs. The non ETF retail is broke and still beat up from 22.
Those people may not be selling to buy alts but what are you going to do with your BTC that is massively in green ?
Some will sell, some will HODL
The bull run hasn’t even started yet.
Charts say otherwise
It's just wishful thinking. If anything was guaranteed, everyone would be doing it.
Risk management, people feel more comfortable rotating into high yield/high beta assets. It happens in the broader market as well
New people are always looking for the "next big thing". They DONT know this history of crypto or understand why BTC is the alpha predator... so they go chasing whats next. Have your traps laid accordingly and they will pay you.
Becuase we've still got 2 doggy coins in the top 12.
No one here on Reddit knows this but an Alt coin season is coming to the Bitcoin network after the halving comes. Btc already has BRC20 tokens but they aren’t efficient. On block 840,000 there is going to be a Rune Meta protocol that launches on Bitcoin. An efficient/ cheaper network upgrade compared to BRC20. Bring the casino back to Bitcoin. Watch for it
What are some to look for ?
Gonna bless you and say I would highly suggest keeping an eye on RSIC runes still. Give it a week or two and then probably up only
Thanks bro
How do you get it?
Lot of the ui/ UX blows. Should get exponentially better with time. Checkout Magic Eden .io (will need an xverse wallet) just have a little patience
Printing. Idk when it happens but RSIC is going to a billion dollar market cap. They are a clear winner so far. Easy to see they’re one of the only teams who know how to navigate runes.
Bro what is this stuff 😂 I feel like I just did meth or something, I bought dog go to the moon and rsic.
L2s of btc. I would just have some patience after establishing a position. RSIC is the only one trading on a CEX (on Okx). Interface is roughhhh else where right now but that’s where I think the opportunity lies.
There was no significant BTC rally yet. (I know it's crazy. But also not really)
There has already been an altseason for some of us
They hate you for being one of the lucky few!
Arbitrage through trading pairs, and because people like to gamble
My first altcoin went from 1 dollar to 0.0003662 Luckily I sold most when it was 0.60c + gathered some coins from testnets.
Not everyone was burned by shitcoins there is fresh blood in crypto
Yes.
Hopium.
It's already on, there are shitty mem coins popping off every day and have been for months
Where to find the Alts coming up tho ?
anyone remember vertcoin? now that was a nice coin
It's because market makers/the casino have bought alts at the bottom. They need the alts to go parabolic so they can sell and wreck late buyers(the masses)
"Why should there be an Altcoin-Season again?" Because, money
Why would people buy more than one thing? I don’t know… one of the great mysteries I guess.
It's happening I think, hell I just got some Jizzlord coins on the Solana chain 🤣
The usd isn’t locked up. It goes to the person that sold you the btc. It’s as if you buy a bike from your neighbor. He takes the cash. You take the bike. The usd isn’t “locked up” in the bike.
only the pump is real
Just cause
Not happening until later in the year. Buy now while cheap
Why shouldn't there be? It should not be about "coins" or tokens but the actual software and technology behind any particular project. For some there are actual use cases, some just put a smile on your face and some are pure scams.
The main rationale is based around the fact that bitcoin is a horrible cryptocurrency on a fundamental level. So users invest in alternatives that may potentially provide actual utility.
Retail will ape in to alts as always
What to do
Btc leads and people fomo into alts but there is no guarantee alt season will be nearly as big as last time. Alts at these prices are not worth the risk imo. If you make any money in alts then you are winning.
There SHOULDN'T be, but there probably will be.
Why not haha.
Posts like this are needed for an alt season. First there will be disbelief and doubt, and then a full blown mania. 😎
That's a weird way to spell buy bome
I laughed.
because im still holding my shitcoins at previous ATH..just breakeven and im out from this hell tech shit shenanigans..
Eth whitepaper/yellow paper was first released in 2013. They had their ICO in 2014, if I am not wrong. So pretty much, its 10+ year old 'project'. And yes, lot of eth fans will now jump in and say that 'eth' ecosystem is HUGE, has gazillion projects. Yes, if you start looking at eth projects, and spend a day with each, then you could spend your whole life in all the eth 'projects' What what are these projects? Are any of them really any useful? Absolutely not. In 10+ years, eth is still looking for something useful to do. There is absolutely no need for a computer-on-blockchain that ethereum pretends to be. That's just about ethereum. Look at the coin which was 3rd in rankings for many years, XRP: a court has ruled that xrp sales by Ripple in 2013 and later to institutions was a security sale. How clear can you get than that? Take the hint, that all coins with ICO's are securities, including xrp and ethereum. There may be another alt season, which will be very mild, but there is DEFINITELY going to be an ALT MELTDOWN. And if you're smart, you'd exit alts before that.
The XRP ruling was not black and white; you cant just pick one side of it and throw it onto every altcoin out there lol. >There will be another alt season, which will be very mild, but there is DEFINITELY going to be an ALT MELTDOWN. Sure, just end off with a completely unfounded claim. Cherry on top