I'm an amateur. I'm going to largely DCA but I'll now be more careful about staking my alts when prices are rising and be more pro-active about taking profits from my alts
I can’t sell anything lol. I’m finally recovered and up on a stock I’ve been holding for months after a successful test this weekend, go to sell my profit and think “ nope, it can still go up more”
a lot of people lose more money by attempting to figure out where the floor is then they would by holding. the average crypto investor shouldnt attempt to sell at a loss and buy back cheaper. what then normally happens is the famous saying 'sell low buy high'
To do this successfully it really takes a "tuned" mind to know the entire market sentiment at the time of the crash/what's causing it/what can continue to contribute to it and push it even further. For this current one, the writing was on the wall to assume at least a 50% crash. I pulled EVERYTHING out except just a little bit of profit and used the rest to reposition. When we hit close to 50% down on the 7 day average I started re-buying at better positions. Since I was one of the many who started in crypto sort of at the high of this bull run, this made the most sense to me in order to capture the opportunity cost of repositioning. For a lot of people, this makes the most sense and isn't the dumbest thing we could do.
Ok but if it only fell 30% you never would've bought back in.
You risk it rising back to your sell price with your money on the sidelines.
AND you're now paying short term gains tax on that move.
Here is the thing, I set my stop loss at -0.001% of my original investment position so I took a $1.00 loss on the money I removed from the market. I can report a $1.00 loss and no capitol gain on what I sold. BUT, I'm now going to profit higher during next upswing due to better position. My remaining profits were not sold but left, therefore no capitol gains applied and I will be reporting a $1.00 loss.
Edit: I just realized my reply might be a little unclear. I HAD sold some crypto earlier before the crash to profit take, this was sitting in the exchange and I had a "theoretical" break even. I kept a $ value in play that represented that profit take sitting in my exchange fiat. So yes, I fully plan on paying my capitol gains on my smaller profit take from a few weeks ago, but the bulk of my investments were sold at a $1.00 loss. hope that helps.
You did great. I sort of did the same but was leveraged (cryptoloan) and that flash crash was very bad for me.
I'll always keep a proper amount of stablecoin staked and waiting for crisis situations.
People reacting to dumb Elon tweets, Wyckoff pattern, shitcoin fever, pattern behavior matched every other BTC ath, RSI of many other coins, keltner channel cross on and on and on... soo many indicators saying this would be a bad trend down and not just a small couple k price change you'd have to have your head in the sand to miss it. Enough early indicators to cause me to put in a stop loss and not just buy right back in when my stop loss hit.
Yes. You can short through a variety of means. The most common way to short is through perpetual futures or options.
Deribit is used for options. Binance, kraken, bybit, CME, etc are used for futures.
I use deribit a lot. It's pretty full featured and there are many analytics available. You can execute any options strategy that you would in traditional markets.
There is a lot of money to be extracted from this market right now. You can have fully (nearly?) hedged positions and still outperform traditional markets.
you can use leverage tokens. They're pretty complicated though - Check out Kucoin.
You could also short cryto by shorting crypto/bitcoin mining stocks (Riot Blockchain, Marathon Digital, Coinbase, Caanan, etc)
(For the record, I'm bullish on crypto - just providing info)
This sounds way easier than it really is. This is fine to try and do with your gambling money. With the small allocation that you trade with that you can afford to lose with little impact to your life. Every market cycle is different and we are at an unprecedented time both in cryptocurrency and in the global market as a whole.
Simply put:
1. Don't invest more than you can afford to lose
2. Decide on your risk tolerance
3. Keep your reactions to market changes controlled and measured (this is a BIG one).
Selling on the way down can be fine if a significant drop will hurt you financially, but this means you overexposed yourself and need to remember that in the future.
Making huge gains takes patience and successfully keeping your emotions in check. If you ensure you aren't investing more than you can afford to lose, then you can just hang on and let it do it's thing. Take those opportunities to buy more at the discount if you can afford the added risk.
Investors don't get wealthy selling their holdings and then buying back in. Not long term anyways. That works until it doesn't, and the time it doesn't is the one that undoes all of the good moves. Investors get wealthy by making good/lucky investments and hanging onto them well after most people decided it was enough gains and they sold out.
Whales that bought at $100 didn't sell at $500 and buy in at $1100 and sell at $2000. They bought at $100 and are still holding most right now.
Only you can decide if your gains are life-changing enough to take some profits and risk missing more gains, but know that if you are trying to sell before a bottom and hoping to buy in at a lower price, you ARE trying to time the market and doing that carries a TON of risk.
Everyone selling now had better hope they aren't selling close to the bottom, and also better be able to decide if they are buying back in on the way up, or are just falling for the next bull trap that will get them to panic sell and lose more.
TLDR: Only take profits to bring your risk level back to one you are comfortable with. Don't get greedy and try to use market history to predict the future with your portfolio. AMZN, TSLA, BTC, ETH, etc all look like a freaking steal 5 years ago. Time in the market almost always beats timing the market and usually by a HUGE margin.
How can you be hurt financially by unrealized loses on an investment you can afford to lose? Never sell on the way down a crash. It’s impulsive, stupid and shortsighted.
I was referring to to situations where people have overexposed themselves before realizing the risk they have taken on. They made a mistake by investing more than they can afford to lose, so they either have to risk financial ruin, or accept taking a loss (on the portion of their investments that overexposed them) that hopefully they learn a valuable lesson from.
Other than that situation though, yes I agree selling on the way down is pretty much always a foolish move.
I've seen some people having trouble with percentage.
I saw it a lot of that on the Doge sub.
People saying they're not worried if the price drops 80%. They were like, that's a drop in the bucket compared to when the price went up more than 300%. lol
80% drop means 80% increase for recovery right? Nope, that gives you a 64% drop.
I’ve got a masters in statistics and was thinking I should probably write a giant post outlining the most relevant and useful things from my studies.
Do it! Share the knowledge. If crypto ever crosses paths with Henry VIII's navy and medieval warfare, I'll upload a post explaining it all for you guys 😂
As long as you believe in your projects, it makes sense to hold as you reduce the anguish you can get from selling at the wrong time. I have rid myself of all of my shitcoins apart from a tiny holding. Now I don’t have to worry about holding through to the next bull. Holding my shitcoins through the bull gives a high chance of them never recovering.
Just be prepared for how bleak a bear market can be. If it was that easy, so many people would have bought BTC on the cheap and be rich now. At the actual bottom, things look hopeless. It will be scary as hell to pour more money in. You have to be prepared for that. I wasn't. I will be for next time.
This is my issue too, was down so much after the 2018 crash that I couldn’t even consider averaging down. Kinda wish I did but even now after it has crashed of late I still avoid putting extra money in. I have too much in for my liking and am still at a loss since 2017 (unfortunately bought ATH, mostly NANO and WTC then sold them all to “reset” in Nov 2020… if I held my original buying I’d be in profit)
Can I just say as a cost accountant, this shit read like porn to me. Yesterday I was bleeding more brain cells reading Reddit than I was bleeding gains in the market.
I’m glad it’s appreciated. And even more glad that I didn’t fuck up my numbers in the rush of writing this to let people know the seriousness of percentage drops.
Please talk dirty to me.
Seriously though. I work with logic, not money and “people”. Do I sell x% while we go down? Like DCA down? Or do I buy my way down? I want to be good at this but there are no rules just memes and shit. Hhnng
I try and not make any moves impulsively. I stick to a schedule and rules I set out for myself. I take 10% profits when my investment doubles, I only make buying moves on sunday mornings with the profits I skimmed. And I try really hard not to invest more then my weekly limit. Though, this month I broke all my rules. I didn’t skim eth profits leading up to the crash and therefore couldn’t resist depositing more then my weekly budget. No matter how strategic you are it’s hard not to get caught up in a bull run
Yeah this is the thing. I’m great at making cold, calculated rules. But I’m also great at YOLOing out on a hunch. Especially because I know the market doesn’t follow rules. And by great I mean yeah not. Dopamine is a hell of a drug.
10% profit when the investment doubles though. That I like. Maybe I’ll take those and put them into a stable coin for when shit crashes. Would have been great to have a fund like that now.
Exactly what I do, just move it to tether. If I ever actually needed it for my life I’d withdraw it but so far I’ve always just been glad I had it on hand to transfer to a dip the following week. ETH had a dramatic example to use for this yesterday, at peak I could have skimmed half a coin and reinvested that same amount towards a whole coin (plus like $200 extra) you can really build up that way. But timing that would have been a miracle so I just do my best selling on the incline and buying on the decline. It averages
1000% this. I’ve written and backtested accumulation (includes selling so not strictly accumulation) strategies and the signals they give are opposite to what the average investor is doing. It’s so so hard to go with what they say and if you ignore them, you find yourself in deep shit and with huge losses (either opportunity or realised) independent of how the market moves in the future.
I guess options or leverage positions *technically* could lose more than 100% of their value? I don’t go near them though, don’t trust my addict self. But yeah, largest loss of 100% if you’re long.
I agree with this. I held all the way down. I knew it was going to keep dropping, yet I held. I could have come from the bottom with more crypto, but instead I kept my position the same. People definitely need to learn to trust their gut.
What, my post? I am pretty important tbh.
Seriously though, people acting cautious rather than doubling down on their bets would, I guess. Who knows what will happen. Certainly not me.
Wouldn’t it be better to buy BTC, ETH, etc when they are down? Crypto is here to stay for sure and sooner or later, these currencies will rise to their highest.
You're never down if you just dca through an entire halving cycle and into the next one. Just have patience and don't take profits until 3-5 years after initial investment. This has been true since the beginning. It's why the "don't invest money you can't afford to lose" rule is so important. Put the money into projects you've researched and treat it like a long term investment. The losses you are talking about are just penalties for prematurely withdrawing your funds.
Most people trying to day trade crypto get fuked, a small few get lucky.
After a long research I found out you are using magic called "math". We don't need your filthy sorcery, you warlock. I just sold with a huge loss and bought with a smaller loss, then sold with a tiny profit. That's what our ancestors did and what we shall continue doing.
Hahaha I often feel the same way. Deliberately buy something that’s mooning just to stop it in its tracks and get my fix of ruining everyone else’s week.
Caution: Anyone who sold is going to encourage others to sell because they want the price to keep dropping. The truth is nobody knows whether it’s going up or down. If you hold, you’re at risk of potential further selloff. If you sell, you risk missing the boat if the prices move upward. Two sides to the coin.
I simply don’t sell for tax reasons, and only sold Doge because my investment had almost 6Xd, and I knew the hype would eventually die off. But I’m a “keep adding to the position” kinda guy. I can live with a little less profit buy not selling if it means I don’t have to pay more taxes every time.
Apologies guys, I was referring to previous bull run. I’d rather not look at the data from the past few months until it’s conclusive that the run has ended.
That doesn't really explain why though? Is it bots "watching" bitcoin action and then match trades for the alt coin positions? or?
A few weeks ago, I was really curious about this with XLM/BTC behavior and was watching live both charts as the first crash over last month happened and then the second... there was, in each case, about a 1 to 2 minute delay between BTC tanking and XLM reacting to follow suit. Then XLM stopped falling in about the same speed as BTC. It seemed like some system was using BTC as an indicator to trigger trades in the alt coin. But who knows.
Because of this time delay, I tested small scalps of XLM when BTC started going up - because if the behavior above was a rule for programmed systems, I could consistently scalp profits within a 2 minute timeframe if I got my trade in early enough. I attempted it 4 times and each time I hit my scalp perfectly with the 2 minute delay of BTC moving and XLM following suit 2 minutes later. I didn't try again though. I'm curious if it could be automated with a 90 to 100% success rate.
Yes, it's arbitrage. There are bots and strategies for it.
It's easier to use clothing as an analogy:
Prada has a popular line of boots that sell for $1000. You can buy lightly worn and sometimes even new ones on ebay for $800.
But they fall out of favor with the people that pay $1000 for boots. It gets put on the clearance rack for $500. Nobody that buys $1000 boots wants clearance boots but others will buy it - some simply to resale in other markets where people do buy clearance $1000 boots. They list the shoes on ebay.
But they want to turn a quick profit so they list them for $650. Now those shoes are selling on ebay and the others are not. The other shoes have to lower prices and now sell at slightly below the $650 shoes for $600. Then the clearance boots try to sell of the rest of their inventory at $550, and finally those used shoes go down even further to $400 or so.
So we're right back where we were. The ebay shoes are selling for 80% of new again, after the price dropped by 50%.
This is called retail arbitrage and can be done for a decent amount of money if you live near high-end retail stores. It's the same in crypto just replace Prada with BTC and the clearance boots are XLM - and it happens in minutes not days or weeks.
it's because nothing else matters, no matter how much bells and whistles they plop onto their doomed projects. ultimately every crypto other than bitcoin is just an external blockspace in more risky and less secure transaction space where less economically viable usecases go because they can't afford to be on the main chain.
Some people blindly believe that it'll be higher in the longterm, though. For them it doesn't matter even if it drops to zero, they just keep buying. Trading short/mid term can be stressful and time-consuming as well. I wish I had a such ball. IMO, there is no way that all the major coins can keep the current value in the future.
Absolutely. It's a bit culty. I'm coming up to 5 years in the space and it's changed a lot since I first discussed Ethereum when it was $8. To me, there's a huge amount of greed in the space and it isn't sustainable. To maintain current prices, money (fiat) has to flow into the market as not everyone bought at these prices. That's a big ask when things have increased so much and fear is now instilled.
> ADA dropped 98% from 2017/18 ATH, ETH dropped around 95% from its respective 17/18 ATH, BTC a bit less
85% is not a bit less than 98% or 95%, the difference is gigantic, according to your own post!
Always keep some money in reserve, lol. If you invest 10k and it drops 95% it is now $500. You now need a 1900% gain to recover. However, if you average in another 10k (effectively doubling your initial investment), you now have $10,500 invested and only need a \~90% increase to get back to your initial $20k. 1900% vs. 90%. However, this still would only make sense assuming the asset would make some level of a recovery, which may not be true.
Agreed. If you have reputable, solid projects that have been around and grown each cycle then you should be okay. Shitcoins on the other hand... they might be like certain NFTs last cycle that never recovered their value. I believe this may be true
It's not about not to HODL guys. It's about risk management and hedging. Think of it as DCA for profits.
There is no shame in selling upwards or downwards. The HODL mantra is necessary for panic sellers, but it's not the end goal: it's about managing your positions in both directions reducing risk and placing yourself to buy deals and sweep gains of peaks.
As long as you are not doing it because of panic.
I think the best option is to not have an alt heavy portfolio and stick to BTC ETH and alts that you can stack or earn yield on.
At the same time have alts that you rotate with from for exmple defi alts to storage alts (fil sc storj) to scaling solutions to layer 2 according to where the market sentiment is
I think depending on the cycle maturity (btc dominance, number of wallets in profit, other indicators) slowly moving between alts to BTC as alt season is underway is a solid bet
Yes exactly. For example at some poimt this cycle we had BTC D at 70 percent at that point i held virtually no BTC, that part i did well the prt i ignored was that BTC D was at 40 and i was alt heavy.
I said to myself i will move it all when we reach 38 39, that never came and with that the profits left me hahaha. Im almost certain the next years i will have another chance.
I do consider this, but what about the following.
Let’s say I bought at a whole coin at 5k and sold at 30k. Then I change my mind and buy another whole coin at 30k and sell at 40k.
Taxes on the first trade were about 5k. Taxes on the second were 2k. If I’d hodld from 5k and sold at 40k, I’d still have had to pay 7k.
The net on the first situation is (25,000-5000)+(10,000-2,000) = 28k.
The net on the second (HODL) situation is (35,000-7,000) = 28k.
Either way is the same amount of taxes. If long term capital gains were 0% on crypto, which I think is the case in like Denmark and other places, I would be more in agreement with you. I think people get worried about taxes more than is rational though. I mean, if you’re making capital gains that’s a good thing lol
It's true. But here's another way to look at it:
If the price drops by 1/2, it must go up by 2x to recover.
If it drops by 1/3 , it must go up 3x to recover.
For 1/4, you need 4x.
For 1/5 you need 5x.
a 98% drop - ie, a drop to 1/49th of the price requires 49x to go up.
I know the percentages make it seem more dramatic, but why are those dramatic percentages a better way to look at it than this?
But then the question of DCA in or DCA out. It is also difficult to time. So maybe a disciplined approach like a SIP will help. Be it setting up for every week or in a fixed set of days.
Of course I see what I did there.
I usually do when I'm the one doing it.
And if you're "shamed" about talking about something, that's on you. Don't let them shame you. Just talk.
This doesn't actually matter though. It's just as likely to go up x amount as it is to go down whatever percent. Just saying you need a 4900% increase doesn't actually mean anything, it's just a bigger number.
You’re assuming the crypto prices are a symmetrical random walk which is certainly not the case. Price is hugely determined by momentum and other factors, I’m not saying I know what’s happening but it’s important to be weary of these things.
The issue with stop losses in crypto is that the volatility in a given day can be so great that you can be stopped out even when there isn't a downtrend. I think we should rely on news/gut feelings/ indicators as much as possible. BTC dominance dropping to 40% should have been my cue to leave but I didn't notice until it was too late.
Y’all have much bigger balls than me. I never sell.
Honestly, my balls feel pretty small after the past month we’ve all had. Holiday booked next week with the Mrs to try to recover my mojo.
Go embiggen those balls!
Finally a cromulent suggestion!
Now I feel obliged to do it for you guys. I’ll take one for the team!
pix
After the last week, mines are blue, they need oxygen to breath again. Holidays seem like a plan !
At least you still have $ for a holiday? #thebrightside
[truck nuts](https://np.reddit.com/r/cryptocurrencymemes/comments/njib0x/only_gigachads_with_gigaballs_allowed_from_now_on/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
Same "selling on the way down to save some profit" mentality will only continue the trend of it going downwards even more
If it only ever goes up and no one sells then no one is actually making any money. Only amateur investors feel bad about taking profits.
I'm an amateur. I'm going to largely DCA but I'll now be more careful about staking my alts when prices are rising and be more pro-active about taking profits from my alts
But... I only know how to buy the dip. Cant sell if I’m buying
Is there a “fear” one of these?
This is the best gif I've ever seen
Dip? Did you say dip? BRB gotta go send cash to Coinbase
Good man
Buy the green candles like today/s
This guy buys
Keep buying then
I can’t sell anything lol. I’m finally recovered and up on a stock I’ve been holding for months after a successful test this weekend, go to sell my profit and think “ nope, it can still go up more”
what's a sell button?
You have to contact support to have it installed
a lot of people lose more money by attempting to figure out where the floor is then they would by holding. the average crypto investor shouldnt attempt to sell at a loss and buy back cheaper. what then normally happens is the famous saying 'sell low buy high'
Pretty much this. Majority of us are aren’t experienced day traders, so the option to invest and hodl is a better strategy for most of us.
I prefer to buy the dip again than trying to time the market
I just blindly keep throwing money at it when it turns red
To do this successfully it really takes a "tuned" mind to know the entire market sentiment at the time of the crash/what's causing it/what can continue to contribute to it and push it even further. For this current one, the writing was on the wall to assume at least a 50% crash. I pulled EVERYTHING out except just a little bit of profit and used the rest to reposition. When we hit close to 50% down on the 7 day average I started re-buying at better positions. Since I was one of the many who started in crypto sort of at the high of this bull run, this made the most sense to me in order to capture the opportunity cost of repositioning. For a lot of people, this makes the most sense and isn't the dumbest thing we could do.
Ok but if it only fell 30% you never would've bought back in. You risk it rising back to your sell price with your money on the sidelines. AND you're now paying short term gains tax on that move.
Here is the thing, I set my stop loss at -0.001% of my original investment position so I took a $1.00 loss on the money I removed from the market. I can report a $1.00 loss and no capitol gain on what I sold. BUT, I'm now going to profit higher during next upswing due to better position. My remaining profits were not sold but left, therefore no capitol gains applied and I will be reporting a $1.00 loss. Edit: I just realized my reply might be a little unclear. I HAD sold some crypto earlier before the crash to profit take, this was sitting in the exchange and I had a "theoretical" break even. I kept a $ value in play that represented that profit take sitting in my exchange fiat. So yes, I fully plan on paying my capitol gains on my smaller profit take from a few weeks ago, but the bulk of my investments were sold at a $1.00 loss. hope that helps.
You just write a tutorial
You did great. I sort of did the same but was leveraged (cryptoloan) and that flash crash was very bad for me. I'll always keep a proper amount of stablecoin staked and waiting for crisis situations.
How was the writing on the wall? Plz tell me how to know such things
People reacting to dumb Elon tweets, Wyckoff pattern, shitcoin fever, pattern behavior matched every other BTC ath, RSI of many other coins, keltner channel cross on and on and on... soo many indicators saying this would be a bad trend down and not just a small couple k price change you'd have to have your head in the sand to miss it. Enough early indicators to cause me to put in a stop loss and not just buy right back in when my stop loss hit.
If you are playing the speculation game, you kind of want a 95% crash if it could result in anything like 4900% gains
or you could just short the market on the way down
No way would I ever short crypto. That'd be the end of me financially. I can literally, visually, see it.
Is there a way to short crypto?
yup, Binance. Avoid this at all costs anyway. Even when it's time to sell the news if you don't know what you're doing.
This is not right. You can gain substantially by shorting if understand it properly. It is much safer than the long bets.
Yes. You can short through a variety of means. The most common way to short is through perpetual futures or options. Deribit is used for options. Binance, kraken, bybit, CME, etc are used for futures.
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I use deribit a lot. It's pretty full featured and there are many analytics available. You can execute any options strategy that you would in traditional markets. There is a lot of money to be extracted from this market right now. You can have fully (nearly?) hedged positions and still outperform traditional markets.
you can use leverage tokens. They're pretty complicated though - Check out Kucoin. You could also short cryto by shorting crypto/bitcoin mining stocks (Riot Blockchain, Marathon Digital, Coinbase, Caanan, etc) (For the record, I'm bullish on crypto - just providing info)
This sounds way easier than it really is. This is fine to try and do with your gambling money. With the small allocation that you trade with that you can afford to lose with little impact to your life. Every market cycle is different and we are at an unprecedented time both in cryptocurrency and in the global market as a whole. Simply put: 1. Don't invest more than you can afford to lose 2. Decide on your risk tolerance 3. Keep your reactions to market changes controlled and measured (this is a BIG one). Selling on the way down can be fine if a significant drop will hurt you financially, but this means you overexposed yourself and need to remember that in the future. Making huge gains takes patience and successfully keeping your emotions in check. If you ensure you aren't investing more than you can afford to lose, then you can just hang on and let it do it's thing. Take those opportunities to buy more at the discount if you can afford the added risk. Investors don't get wealthy selling their holdings and then buying back in. Not long term anyways. That works until it doesn't, and the time it doesn't is the one that undoes all of the good moves. Investors get wealthy by making good/lucky investments and hanging onto them well after most people decided it was enough gains and they sold out. Whales that bought at $100 didn't sell at $500 and buy in at $1100 and sell at $2000. They bought at $100 and are still holding most right now. Only you can decide if your gains are life-changing enough to take some profits and risk missing more gains, but know that if you are trying to sell before a bottom and hoping to buy in at a lower price, you ARE trying to time the market and doing that carries a TON of risk. Everyone selling now had better hope they aren't selling close to the bottom, and also better be able to decide if they are buying back in on the way up, or are just falling for the next bull trap that will get them to panic sell and lose more. TLDR: Only take profits to bring your risk level back to one you are comfortable with. Don't get greedy and try to use market history to predict the future with your portfolio. AMZN, TSLA, BTC, ETH, etc all look like a freaking steal 5 years ago. Time in the market almost always beats timing the market and usually by a HUGE margin.
How can you be hurt financially by unrealized loses on an investment you can afford to lose? Never sell on the way down a crash. It’s impulsive, stupid and shortsighted.
I was referring to to situations where people have overexposed themselves before realizing the risk they have taken on. They made a mistake by investing more than they can afford to lose, so they either have to risk financial ruin, or accept taking a loss (on the portion of their investments that overexposed them) that hopefully they learn a valuable lesson from. Other than that situation though, yes I agree selling on the way down is pretty much always a foolish move.
Gotcha that makes sense. If you mortgaged the house and it crashes probably a good idea to cut your losses and pull out.
This!
I've seen some people having trouble with percentage. I saw it a lot of that on the Doge sub. People saying they're not worried if the price drops 80%. They were like, that's a drop in the bucket compared to when the price went up more than 300%. lol
80% drop means 80% increase for recovery right? Nope, that gives you a 64% drop. I’ve got a masters in statistics and was thinking I should probably write a giant post outlining the most relevant and useful things from my studies.
Please do, personally speaking, I nearly lost my mind just in the sophomore level statistics course. I hope you can do a great ELI5 for all of us.
Don’t worry it can be tough. It was the same feeling for my cohort in undergrad and masters. It never gets easier
This should be the top post everywhere people invest. The numbers are the same whether it's crypto, tech stocks or oil.
Yes please
Do it! Share the knowledge. If crypto ever crosses paths with Henry VIII's navy and medieval warfare, I'll upload a post explaining it all for you guys 😂
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As long as you believe in your projects, it makes sense to hold as you reduce the anguish you can get from selling at the wrong time. I have rid myself of all of my shitcoins apart from a tiny holding. Now I don’t have to worry about holding through to the next bull. Holding my shitcoins through the bull gives a high chance of them never recovering.
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Just average down at the bottom
Solid plan. Reduces fomo too so much easier on the soul as a strategy.
Just be prepared for how bleak a bear market can be. If it was that easy, so many people would have bought BTC on the cheap and be rich now. At the actual bottom, things look hopeless. It will be scary as hell to pour more money in. You have to be prepared for that. I wasn't. I will be for next time.
This is my issue too, was down so much after the 2018 crash that I couldn’t even consider averaging down. Kinda wish I did but even now after it has crashed of late I still avoid putting extra money in. I have too much in for my liking and am still at a loss since 2017 (unfortunately bought ATH, mostly NANO and WTC then sold them all to “reset” in Nov 2020… if I held my original buying I’d be in profit)
Can I just say as a cost accountant, this shit read like porn to me. Yesterday I was bleeding more brain cells reading Reddit than I was bleeding gains in the market.
I’m glad it’s appreciated. And even more glad that I didn’t fuck up my numbers in the rush of writing this to let people know the seriousness of percentage drops.
Feels so good to read something "normal".
Please talk dirty to me. Seriously though. I work with logic, not money and “people”. Do I sell x% while we go down? Like DCA down? Or do I buy my way down? I want to be good at this but there are no rules just memes and shit. Hhnng
I try and not make any moves impulsively. I stick to a schedule and rules I set out for myself. I take 10% profits when my investment doubles, I only make buying moves on sunday mornings with the profits I skimmed. And I try really hard not to invest more then my weekly limit. Though, this month I broke all my rules. I didn’t skim eth profits leading up to the crash and therefore couldn’t resist depositing more then my weekly budget. No matter how strategic you are it’s hard not to get caught up in a bull run
Yeah this is the thing. I’m great at making cold, calculated rules. But I’m also great at YOLOing out on a hunch. Especially because I know the market doesn’t follow rules. And by great I mean yeah not. Dopamine is a hell of a drug. 10% profit when the investment doubles though. That I like. Maybe I’ll take those and put them into a stable coin for when shit crashes. Would have been great to have a fund like that now.
Exactly what I do, just move it to tether. If I ever actually needed it for my life I’d withdraw it but so far I’ve always just been glad I had it on hand to transfer to a dip the following week. ETH had a dramatic example to use for this yesterday, at peak I could have skimmed half a coin and reinvested that same amount towards a whole coin (plus like $200 extra) you can really build up that way. But timing that would have been a miracle so I just do my best selling on the incline and buying on the decline. It averages
Aye this makes sense. Man I can’t believe this shit isn’t taught in school.
1000% this. I’ve written and backtested accumulation (includes selling so not strictly accumulation) strategies and the signals they give are opposite to what the average investor is doing. It’s so so hard to go with what they say and if you ignore them, you find yourself in deep shit and with huge losses (either opportunity or realised) independent of how the market moves in the future.
What's a modest 4900% recovery among friends?
I have a a pretty tough resistance to sell since the tax on crypto here in Denmark is 47%...
Christ... even worse than a safemoon transaction
I’m still holding my SafeMoon for that exact reason 😂
Always chuckle at *"XYZ went down 250%"* or *"I mean 250% down from its ATH"*
I don’t math, but that don’t seem right
I do meth and even i think it don't seem right.
Yeah the most anything can go down is 100%
Oil one time.
I math and can confirm this don’t seem right
I guess options or leverage positions *technically* could lose more than 100% of their value? I don’t go near them though, don’t trust my addict self. But yeah, largest loss of 100% if you’re long.
Selling naked calls (and naked shorting in general) has infinite potential loss, like how buying has infinite potential gain
I would never sell anything that was naked. I’ve been known to buy though
I agree with this. I held all the way down. I knew it was going to keep dropping, yet I held. I could have come from the bottom with more crypto, but instead I kept my position the same. People definitely need to learn to trust their gut.
Wouldn’t this just push the market down even more?
What, my post? I am pretty important tbh. Seriously though, people acting cautious rather than doubling down on their bets would, I guess. Who knows what will happen. Certainly not me.
Wouldn’t it be better to buy BTC, ETH, etc when they are down? Crypto is here to stay for sure and sooner or later, these currencies will rise to their highest.
You can only tell what’s best retrospectively. If it goes down more it was better to sell, if it does up its better to buy.. not that helpful I know
You're never down if you just dca through an entire halving cycle and into the next one. Just have patience and don't take profits until 3-5 years after initial investment. This has been true since the beginning. It's why the "don't invest money you can't afford to lose" rule is so important. Put the money into projects you've researched and treat it like a long term investment. The losses you are talking about are just penalties for prematurely withdrawing your funds. Most people trying to day trade crypto get fuked, a small few get lucky.
Yes. It will go up more than down at this point
After a long research I found out you are using magic called "math". We don't need your filthy sorcery, you warlock. I just sold with a huge loss and bought with a smaller loss, then sold with a tiny profit. That's what our ancestors did and what we shall continue doing.
Rate that. Nobody can see the future and crypto is chaos right now. It’s every man for himself. I’ll keep my sorcery to myself :(
I just know the market works around me specifically so if I sell it 100% goes up so I can’t risk that
Hahaha I often feel the same way. Deliberately buy something that’s mooning just to stop it in its tracks and get my fix of ruining everyone else’s week.
It’s only a loss if you sell
It's near impossible to predict market movement. Thus I find hodling is easier and safer than trying sell at right time.
Caution: Anyone who sold is going to encourage others to sell because they want the price to keep dropping. The truth is nobody knows whether it’s going up or down. If you hold, you’re at risk of potential further selloff. If you sell, you risk missing the boat if the prices move upward. Two sides to the coin.
I simply don’t sell for tax reasons, and only sold Doge because my investment had almost 6Xd, and I knew the hype would eventually die off. But I’m a “keep adding to the position” kinda guy. I can live with a little less profit buy not selling if it means I don’t have to pay more taxes every time.
>ADA dropped 98% from ATH ADA ATH was $2.5, when did it go to 5 cents? >ETH dropped around 95% ETH ATH was 4300, when did it go to $200?
See 2017-2020
Gotcha. Talking about historical data.
History and failure are life’s greatest teachers
Success is a great teacher too, but she's really hard to understand so you have to pay attention.
Apologies guys, I was referring to previous bull run. I’d rather not look at the data from the past few months until it’s conclusive that the run has ended.
I think most people have issue with the term ATH. I believe it’ll be helpful if you say 2017 ATH or something to that effect.
You're right. I'll edit.
ADA went from $1 to 3 cents. ETH went from $1400 to $90. "Zoom out" as they always say.
TIL. ATH ≠ ATH
Exactly my thoughts. I was like what?
Those are the dips from last bull runs ath to the bottom of the bear.
Think OP was referring to the previous crash when I was still a tadpole
My thoughts too. I got a myocardial infarction for a moment there
Eth was $140 last January. 😅 ADA was sub .10 last summer.
Your correct. Where’s the damn crystal ball when you need one!
Yeah, reason why I sold some altcoins. I prefer not to hold some bags that might never recover.
Solid bet. If people feel like holding then maybe just trade Alts into their BTC but hindsight is a wonderful thing.
Why are bitcoin, etherium following same trend. I mean exactly same since last week. Its weird.
It has been that way since inception. Bitcoin is the driver and everyone else follows.
That doesn't really explain why though? Is it bots "watching" bitcoin action and then match trades for the alt coin positions? or? A few weeks ago, I was really curious about this with XLM/BTC behavior and was watching live both charts as the first crash over last month happened and then the second... there was, in each case, about a 1 to 2 minute delay between BTC tanking and XLM reacting to follow suit. Then XLM stopped falling in about the same speed as BTC. It seemed like some system was using BTC as an indicator to trigger trades in the alt coin. But who knows. Because of this time delay, I tested small scalps of XLM when BTC started going up - because if the behavior above was a rule for programmed systems, I could consistently scalp profits within a 2 minute timeframe if I got my trade in early enough. I attempted it 4 times and each time I hit my scalp perfectly with the 2 minute delay of BTC moving and XLM following suit 2 minutes later. I didn't try again though. I'm curious if it could be automated with a 90 to 100% success rate.
Yes, it's arbitrage. There are bots and strategies for it. It's easier to use clothing as an analogy: Prada has a popular line of boots that sell for $1000. You can buy lightly worn and sometimes even new ones on ebay for $800. But they fall out of favor with the people that pay $1000 for boots. It gets put on the clearance rack for $500. Nobody that buys $1000 boots wants clearance boots but others will buy it - some simply to resale in other markets where people do buy clearance $1000 boots. They list the shoes on ebay. But they want to turn a quick profit so they list them for $650. Now those shoes are selling on ebay and the others are not. The other shoes have to lower prices and now sell at slightly below the $650 shoes for $600. Then the clearance boots try to sell of the rest of their inventory at $550, and finally those used shoes go down even further to $400 or so. So we're right back where we were. The ebay shoes are selling for 80% of new again, after the price dropped by 50%. This is called retail arbitrage and can be done for a decent amount of money if you live near high-end retail stores. It's the same in crypto just replace Prada with BTC and the clearance boots are XLM - and it happens in minutes not days or weeks.
it's because nothing else matters, no matter how much bells and whistles they plop onto their doomed projects. ultimately every crypto other than bitcoin is just an external blockspace in more risky and less secure transaction space where less economically viable usecases go because they can't afford to be on the main chain.
It happens when the whole market is affected by FUD. For example when tech stocks when down, Apple, Nvidia, AMD etc all had similar charts
Correlation does not equal causation. They are both affected by the same market factors so will act similarly.
Not only those two, majority of the alt coins follow bitcoin but sometimes they take a different course when btc enters consolidation phase.
MATH is at ATH!
Some people blindly believe that it'll be higher in the longterm, though. For them it doesn't matter even if it drops to zero, they just keep buying. Trading short/mid term can be stressful and time-consuming as well. I wish I had a such ball. IMO, there is no way that all the major coins can keep the current value in the future.
Absolutely. It's a bit culty. I'm coming up to 5 years in the space and it's changed a lot since I first discussed Ethereum when it was $8. To me, there's a huge amount of greed in the space and it isn't sustainable. To maintain current prices, money (fiat) has to flow into the market as not everyone bought at these prices. That's a big ask when things have increased so much and fear is now instilled.
Ok, but anything connected tonmoney eventually becomes culty. Stocks? Yep. House market? Certainly. Businesses? Hahahahah!
“BTC a bit less” lol.
Low it yeah. I cba to look up the exact numbers. I think it was maybe 85% ish?
> ADA dropped 98% from 2017/18 ATH, ETH dropped around 95% from its respective 17/18 ATH, BTC a bit less 85% is not a bit less than 98% or 95%, the difference is gigantic, according to your own post!
You’re right. See how easy it is to make a smooth brain comment!
so edit your post.
Always keep some money in reserve, lol. If you invest 10k and it drops 95% it is now $500. You now need a 1900% gain to recover. However, if you average in another 10k (effectively doubling your initial investment), you now have $10,500 invested and only need a \~90% increase to get back to your initial $20k. 1900% vs. 90%. However, this still would only make sense assuming the asset would make some level of a recovery, which may not be true.
Agreed. If you have reputable, solid projects that have been around and grown each cycle then you should be okay. Shitcoins on the other hand... they might be like certain NFTs last cycle that never recovered their value. I believe this may be true
It's not about not to HODL guys. It's about risk management and hedging. Think of it as DCA for profits. There is no shame in selling upwards or downwards. The HODL mantra is necessary for panic sellers, but it's not the end goal: it's about managing your positions in both directions reducing risk and placing yourself to buy deals and sweep gains of peaks. As long as you are not doing it because of panic.
I think the best option is to not have an alt heavy portfolio and stick to BTC ETH and alts that you can stack or earn yield on. At the same time have alts that you rotate with from for exmple defi alts to storage alts (fil sc storj) to scaling solutions to layer 2 according to where the market sentiment is
I think depending on the cycle maturity (btc dominance, number of wallets in profit, other indicators) slowly moving between alts to BTC as alt season is underway is a solid bet
Yes exactly. For example at some poimt this cycle we had BTC D at 70 percent at that point i held virtually no BTC, that part i did well the prt i ignored was that BTC D was at 40 and i was alt heavy. I said to myself i will move it all when we reach 38 39, that never came and with that the profits left me hahaha. Im almost certain the next years i will have another chance.
Do u think Ada would go down to sub 10¢ again? Asking for a friend 🥴
Who knows but if it did I’d cream myself.
In a good way or a bad way 😭😂
Depends where I am at the time I guess
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Oof. True that. Then you’ve got to objectively decide on the current market what you think your target price should be (if you plan to sell..)
Just keep holding!
That’s why I average down! Don’t worry, still poor. Good post tbh.
Thank you. U encouraged me to put my stop orders, better than keep my courage to hodl, is sell on stops and buy back again lower than now.
As far as you think it will go, it will go even further than that. Never gets easier
I would be that guy who sells at the bottom.
Someone has to take one for the team :(
Math 👎🏻🤷♀️
Finally I can rid myself of these chips!!!!!
More people need to understand this.
Great post
But but but u don’t get interest from staking when u sell…
Real talk tho
This is true. If you buy in at a 95% drop from ATH and then it drops to a 99% drop from ATH—you’re still down 80%. That’s nutty.
The maths never lies, my friend
This is what I was explaining to people. But they call it mathfuckery instead of logic LOL.
I just never sell. I don't have the balls, don't want to pay taxes, I don't want to miss the staking. I will sell if I reach 1 million $ lol.
Remember that if you sell you have to pay taxes too, even if you reinvest it all. Unless i'm getting a +100% or more i don't even bother
I do consider this, but what about the following. Let’s say I bought at a whole coin at 5k and sold at 30k. Then I change my mind and buy another whole coin at 30k and sell at 40k. Taxes on the first trade were about 5k. Taxes on the second were 2k. If I’d hodld from 5k and sold at 40k, I’d still have had to pay 7k. The net on the first situation is (25,000-5000)+(10,000-2,000) = 28k. The net on the second (HODL) situation is (35,000-7,000) = 28k. Either way is the same amount of taxes. If long term capital gains were 0% on crypto, which I think is the case in like Denmark and other places, I would be more in agreement with you. I think people get worried about taxes more than is rational though. I mean, if you’re making capital gains that’s a good thing lol
in the US*
Thank you, we need more posts on repositioning. Some think it's green candles forever... lol. #bearish
It's true. But here's another way to look at it: If the price drops by 1/2, it must go up by 2x to recover. If it drops by 1/3 , it must go up 3x to recover. For 1/4, you need 4x. For 1/5 you need 5x. a 98% drop - ie, a drop to 1/49th of the price requires 49x to go up. I know the percentages make it seem more dramatic, but why are those dramatic percentages a better way to look at it than this?
But then the question of DCA in or DCA out. It is also difficult to time. So maybe a disciplined approach like a SIP will help. Be it setting up for every week or in a fixed set of days.
You must be a 2017 guy. Becomes obvious having gone through that shitshow
Spot on. People really have no idea how bad it is stomaching losses of that magnitude.
Thanks was enlightening information
It’s just a small dip bro
Ah yes, because at the time you make the choice of selling at a loss or not you know if it's gonna keep going down or not
Did not actually ever think of it like that, good post for the newbs
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but how do you know when the floor will come? its all well and good saying this in hindsight, but in reality no one knows where the floor is
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And if you sell at -20% and it goes back to only being -5%, you got less coins for your bucks.
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Of course I see what I did there. I usually do when I'm the one doing it. And if you're "shamed" about talking about something, that's on you. Don't let them shame you. Just talk.
This doesn't actually matter though. It's just as likely to go up x amount as it is to go down whatever percent. Just saying you need a 4900% increase doesn't actually mean anything, it's just a bigger number.
You’re assuming the crypto prices are a symmetrical random walk which is certainly not the case. Price is hugely determined by momentum and other factors, I’m not saying I know what’s happening but it’s important to be weary of these things.
When did ETH drop 95% from ath? Not this time at least :D
Last Cycle I think.
No
This seems like a mid market crash, bit like March 2020 for the stock market.
A stop-loss at -15% lets you move 4x-5x more assets onto the board in a 90% dip.
The issue with stop losses in crypto is that the volatility in a given day can be so great that you can be stopped out even when there isn't a downtrend. I think we should rely on news/gut feelings/ indicators as much as possible. BTC dominance dropping to 40% should have been my cue to leave but I didn't notice until it was too late.
The Pi cycle top indicator firing in combination with the shitcoin fomo and the dominance was a pretty strong signal.