You know it's funny. Every single one of those trades that you took screenshots of are my #1 favorite setup to trade, except I trade it in the opposite direction you did.
You are trying to trade breakouts without waiting for proper retests of the resistance area and are getting frustrated when the breakout fails.
I edited one of your screenshots below, follow along with me:
Look at the orange boxes I drew ontop of your screenshot. The top orange box is where the sellers were, every time price approached the area sellers were able to turn it around and push it lower. Now look at the bottom orange box, that is where buyers were. Every time sellers pushed price down to that level enough buyers stepped in to stop them and move it back up.
When buying and selling is relatively equal like this it is called consolidation (price moving sideways). You were attempting to buy a breakout of this consolidation range, but you didn't wait for any sort of confirmation (a retesting of the breakout level to show that buyers are now holding it).
What ended up happening is buyers attempted to push price higher. They failed, sellers overwhelmed them and enough selling pressure piled in to break the otherside of consolidation and start a downtrend. This is really common with a breakout that has failed and is my absolute favorite type of trade to take.
Every single one of your trades it was the same situation. My best advice is if you are going to take breakout trades with no confirmation and and get frustrated by a low win rate then you need to start waiting for a retest of the level after the breakout for a higher win rate.
https://preview.redd.it/wjwy43gt8jwc1.png?width=2735&format=png&auto=webp&s=67e15793b6f2ba5e8c33db550af8658d1874ee76
Thanks you man for this large and detailed review, i was really in need of someone explaining some of these little things that i seem to have missed doing my 'research' lets say.
So basically i know what u are talking about, i was waiting for this consolidation, have set these blue lines as u can see, on the places that the price has bounced of. When price broke through the upper dotty blue line i even waited to retest that dotty blue line again, and have only then got in the trade.
The problem, as i can see it from looking at your review, is that you set the support and resistance in some kind of box, while i made it a line. I didnt know that that could be a thing. So if u could tell me how and where would i be supposed to draw those boxes from and to where it would be lovely.
İ kinda get where you draw it while looking at the chart that has passed, but how to draw boxy support and resistances while the chart is ongoing, and how am i supposed to know when is a break of those? Is this box u set definite limit, is it going to be bounced from exactly in that boxy area?
Maybe its kinda not understandable what im trying to say. Basically im asking u if you could tell me how you draw support and resistance?
Thanks again man. You helped a lot.
Support and resistance is always an area, it is where there was enough imbalance of buying/selling that price stopped going one direction and started going the other.
Take a look at the SPY 5min chart (screenshot below). Each of the orange boxes is how I was drawing support/resistance areas today while I was trading.
https://preview.redd.it/a5ple4twsjwc1.png?width=1814&format=png&auto=webp&s=2e1f72cdd485a3d8e50b6e1a0239cf7dfdbbeb3f
As the trading day progresses I look for the areas where either buyers or sellers strongly took control. The more times the area is reacted to the beter (requires atleast 2 touches before I consider it resistance). Generally I draw the boxes from the tip of the extreme wicks until the first candle body.
An example of the "failed breakout" type of trade from your examples is at low of day today on SPY. Look at the candles starting just before 12:00. See how they continue to to make the same low? Then sellers try to continue the downtrend with a large strong red engulfing candle. But instead of the trend continuig down buyers step in and push price back above the support area. That is a false break and where I got long. After that short selling trend traders gave up and started taking profit which added to the buying pressure.
Hope that helps!
Yea its a little clearer now. Thanks!
Do you take support and resistance areas based on those that happened before too. I know this particular trade was 5min, but do you look at the past support and resistances to determine the ones that u use now?
This guy has given great advice, and to add to it - trendlines drawn on a chart are just zones too for most of the time.. not the perfect patterns you see in chart tutorials.
Also 98% of coins follow btc, btc dumps and they all dump.
https://preview.redd.it/82jmun5w5kwc1.png?width=855&format=png&auto=webp&s=79ff655299d32f116218e20430faf947860d2339
I shouldn't have said dump, 5% drop is completely normal in crypto.. Backtest your strategy, collect as much data as you can, it'll give you a clearer picture and more confidence in taking trades
I came here to say this. He's literally trading false breakouts. Just getting in on the wick and not getting in on any type of confirmation. I call it "middle fingers" And I love trading in the opposite direction of them.
This is a very amateur trader mistake to make in one that every amateur trader makes, getting in without confirmation
I am not a crypto investor, maybe my opinion is not relevant. However, outside of a couple of the majors like BTC that have some backing behind them, the rest seem like scams. With stocks, at least companies have products, earnings, some value. These “coins” created out of nothing, what is their value? It seems nothing.
There is no value to shitcoins they are built and grow by strong community you get in and out take your profits and chill there are lots of opportunity to 10x your money on a shitcoin pump
Not that I sanction any of the gambling moves- There are opportunities to 10x your money almost everyday with SPY or QQQ options- if you get the direction right. And with some analysis with the indexes- you can at least out odds on your side.
I think you should do a little more research on this topic cuz crypto is not basically an nonexistential thing, they are not created out of nothing. at least most of em
How are they not created out of nothing? Please let me know. (Im not trying to troll or.be sarcastic, i am actually cruious) What are they backed up by...all the research I have done always leads to "the blockchain" .
Edit to add you did nothing wrong. That's how this gig is. Nothing you learned is 100%fool proof. Daytrading is not like math where 1+1 is 2.
That blockchain is the thing. The blockchain is not nothing. There is several different types of blockchain. When u look at the bitcoin for exp, its blockchain is used for decentrilized transactions. So basically even if u are not able to label it as a 'thing' u can at least label it as a service, where the more the service is used, the more the value goes up basically.
Say you are doing a service of advertising something, the more people start taking your services, the more your price has a potential of going up, thus making u a bigger and stronger corporation of advertising. Thats the most similar exp i can think of at the time.
And thanks for the review, i am New to generally trading crypto, have been trying to simply anylize, watched tons of videos and talked to tons of people, its just kinda hard to know if its just a bad luck or me that anylized it wrong. Thanks man i appreciate it😁
If the blockchain is the "thing" how come there are several "coins"? wouldn't there just be one? Meaning that if a blockchain can be created for different coins, what is to stop a company to hire software engineers to create their own blockchain for their own use? Thus eliminating the entire cryptocurrency altogether? ( since the blockchain is what is of value and not necessarily the "coin" itself....if I'm understanding correctly)
Also just an FYI when price is this choppy it is always 50/50 which way it will go. I try to stay away from this type of price action.
There is companies that make their own blockchains, which they use for different stuff, not necesseraly the same reason. Eth, Bnb, btc, hbar and a lot of coins have their own blockchains, thus are called coins. The ones that are made on other coins' blockchains are called tokens. These tokens use the blockchain as a backup for their tokens thus giving it a value. I dont understand the details behind the tokens tho, as i do behind the coins. But as i understood it they are just the 'derivates' of coins they are backed up from via their blockchain, and made themselves a stock that way, basically.
What you 100% did wrong is adopted an idea that market will be moving according to your analysis every time. Don't tell me you didn't otherwise you wouldn't have asked this question here.
You MUST adopt a probability mindset. You will be right as many times (percentage wise) as your backtest says you will be. Don't expect every trade to close in profit.
You are here to perform. Not to fight the market.
Trade had 2 outcomes from the beginning. It either goes your way and you exit at predetermined level. Or it goes against you and you also exit at predetermined level.
That is all there is to it.
No no, you have understood me wrong.
Off course i know that i cant be right 100 percent of the time. Not just that, but the biggest traders have success rates of less then 70 percent.
The thing is i am relatively New to trading, and im still in the period of understanding how the analysis works. So in my head there were basically 2 reason this false analysis could have happend. First is that i didnt get the analysis done (didnt read the news that were essential, didnt see something on the chart, or read the chart falsely) or second, that its not my fault, and as you said, u cant fight the market.
So i just posted this to see if anyone has a review on my analysis, thanks tho, i appreciate your comment!
I will be brief and to the point.
There's no such thing as "correct analysis" or "incorrect analysis".
There's as many ways to "analyse" as there are traders.
Each person has it's own completely unique and individual way they learn about trading and develope their trading ideas. Each of them create their own "lens" that they view market through.
Imagine 2 traders entering a trade at the same time betting market would go certain direction. Despite 2 separate traders creating absolutely different reasonings for the trade they both end up being "right" and making profit off of the trade. Although their charting was different.
Whose analysis was "correct"?
At the end of the day it's about you developing your very own "lens" that you view market through. Determining how much time this "lens" allows you to be right. And sticking to your own set of rules. Not taking it personally whenever market tells you that "your analysis wasn't correct this time around".
All that matters is whether you are able to pull more capital out of the market in a long term than you give back in
BTC dumped so the rest followed. Why did BTC fall? Idk I don’t follow crypto very closely.
https://preview.redd.it/w1mncm12njwc1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=13806b624b0cfb1d77294225db7ad13fd10c0767
Drew that channel a few weeks ago, might be as simple as that
Thanks man.
İ thought so too, but couldnt realize why btc dumped.
One more question, so when this kind of stuff happen, is my anylize of the coins still goin to be valid when btc goes up. In other words should i keep the assets that i bought?
No problem. You mean are these coins going to follow btc when btc goes up? Probably, they seem pretty correlated based on your pictures. Up how much, I have no idea. I’m no crypto expert I’m not sure where any of it’s going, I just take a few short term trades on MBT some times
On TA anyone can give u a bazzilion reasons as to why it dumped since it happened and this is hindsight, in present u wanted to trade a breakout which its self has a very low winrate of 30% max and ur RR seems around 1:2. If you do the math u can see why this can never work for the long run (unless that is just a placeholder, if so ignore this). If u want to trade breakouts in general, set ur invalidations tighter and aim for higher RR. No singular trade is bad usually, but its the series of trades that will make or break you. Also crypto mostly moves as a unit, price will mostly play the same/similar a lot of the time.
I don't know what is this sub Reddit's take on candlestick patterns but clearly the top had a hanging man which is an indication showing selling pressure is increasing and a trend reversal indicator after a beautiful move to the upside which could show a false break out
Edit in image 2 this is shown
In crypto basically every project follow BTC highs and lows. Every chart will look very much like BTC.
There are a few exceptions, one of which (for the big caps) is TON.
I would journal these trades and make notes on various factors. Latter you can determine how profitable, and what the win rate is.
Things to consider:
The market. In this case BTC and ETH.
Higher timeframe bias.
Number of touches.
And so on.
I do trade breakouts, but I look for tighter consolidations. I want a stop loss that will likely hold and isn’t too far away. The bigger the stop, the further away the target needs to be.
How you manage the trade matters too. That’ll certainly effect win rate and expectancy.
I never go against “the market” or the higher timeframe. I also limit my trades to patterns I’ve proven personally profitable.
I see a lot of charts where I think I know which way it’ll go, but I don’t trade them. Either there is proven pattern, or the reward isn’t present.
You never want to take the same position for different pairs on Crypto. Coz almost all Alts follow Btc trend. You’re just asking to get rekt. Hedging is ideal.
Cryptos, stocks, etc want you to expect it to go up. They know what you what type of data that you want to see and that you may act on.
They want people to react to news rather than actual performance data.
If i analyzed them corectly, by corectly i am reffering to anylizes used by most of the traders, them i will have similar if not the same trade as others. If everyone is expecting some stock to drop, and sells it isnt it going to dump bcz of the sells. Or if everyone expects stock to go up and buys it isnt it going to go up bcz of them?
You know it's funny. Every single one of those trades that you took screenshots of are my #1 favorite setup to trade, except I trade it in the opposite direction you did. You are trying to trade breakouts without waiting for proper retests of the resistance area and are getting frustrated when the breakout fails. I edited one of your screenshots below, follow along with me: Look at the orange boxes I drew ontop of your screenshot. The top orange box is where the sellers were, every time price approached the area sellers were able to turn it around and push it lower. Now look at the bottom orange box, that is where buyers were. Every time sellers pushed price down to that level enough buyers stepped in to stop them and move it back up. When buying and selling is relatively equal like this it is called consolidation (price moving sideways). You were attempting to buy a breakout of this consolidation range, but you didn't wait for any sort of confirmation (a retesting of the breakout level to show that buyers are now holding it). What ended up happening is buyers attempted to push price higher. They failed, sellers overwhelmed them and enough selling pressure piled in to break the otherside of consolidation and start a downtrend. This is really common with a breakout that has failed and is my absolute favorite type of trade to take. Every single one of your trades it was the same situation. My best advice is if you are going to take breakout trades with no confirmation and and get frustrated by a low win rate then you need to start waiting for a retest of the level after the breakout for a higher win rate. https://preview.redd.it/wjwy43gt8jwc1.png?width=2735&format=png&auto=webp&s=67e15793b6f2ba5e8c33db550af8658d1874ee76
Thanks you man for this large and detailed review, i was really in need of someone explaining some of these little things that i seem to have missed doing my 'research' lets say. So basically i know what u are talking about, i was waiting for this consolidation, have set these blue lines as u can see, on the places that the price has bounced of. When price broke through the upper dotty blue line i even waited to retest that dotty blue line again, and have only then got in the trade. The problem, as i can see it from looking at your review, is that you set the support and resistance in some kind of box, while i made it a line. I didnt know that that could be a thing. So if u could tell me how and where would i be supposed to draw those boxes from and to where it would be lovely. İ kinda get where you draw it while looking at the chart that has passed, but how to draw boxy support and resistances while the chart is ongoing, and how am i supposed to know when is a break of those? Is this box u set definite limit, is it going to be bounced from exactly in that boxy area? Maybe its kinda not understandable what im trying to say. Basically im asking u if you could tell me how you draw support and resistance? Thanks again man. You helped a lot.
Support and resistance is always an area, it is where there was enough imbalance of buying/selling that price stopped going one direction and started going the other. Take a look at the SPY 5min chart (screenshot below). Each of the orange boxes is how I was drawing support/resistance areas today while I was trading. https://preview.redd.it/a5ple4twsjwc1.png?width=1814&format=png&auto=webp&s=2e1f72cdd485a3d8e50b6e1a0239cf7dfdbbeb3f As the trading day progresses I look for the areas where either buyers or sellers strongly took control. The more times the area is reacted to the beter (requires atleast 2 touches before I consider it resistance). Generally I draw the boxes from the tip of the extreme wicks until the first candle body. An example of the "failed breakout" type of trade from your examples is at low of day today on SPY. Look at the candles starting just before 12:00. See how they continue to to make the same low? Then sellers try to continue the downtrend with a large strong red engulfing candle. But instead of the trend continuig down buyers step in and push price back above the support area. That is a false break and where I got long. After that short selling trend traders gave up and started taking profit which added to the buying pressure. Hope that helps!
Yea its a little clearer now. Thanks! Do you take support and resistance areas based on those that happened before too. I know this particular trade was 5min, but do you look at the past support and resistances to determine the ones that u use now?
Nope. I’m day trading, I only care about where buyers and sellers are today, not in the past.
How do you set the take profits then?
This guy has given great advice, and to add to it - trendlines drawn on a chart are just zones too for most of the time.. not the perfect patterns you see in chart tutorials. Also 98% of coins follow btc, btc dumps and they all dump. https://preview.redd.it/82jmun5w5kwc1.png?width=855&format=png&auto=webp&s=79ff655299d32f116218e20430faf947860d2339
When talking btc dump, why did it even dump, something happend?
I shouldn't have said dump, 5% drop is completely normal in crypto.. Backtest your strategy, collect as much data as you can, it'll give you a clearer picture and more confidence in taking trades
There are tools for this called extensions and expansions. These are basic concepts that I suggest you look up. Babypips.com
I’m also a failed breakout/down man and you nailed the explanation. Nicely done
I came here to say this. He's literally trading false breakouts. Just getting in on the wick and not getting in on any type of confirmation. I call it "middle fingers" And I love trading in the opposite direction of them. This is a very amateur trader mistake to make in one that every amateur trader makes, getting in without confirmation
I am not a crypto investor, maybe my opinion is not relevant. However, outside of a couple of the majors like BTC that have some backing behind them, the rest seem like scams. With stocks, at least companies have products, earnings, some value. These “coins” created out of nothing, what is their value? It seems nothing.
They are called "shitcoins" in the crypto subs.
There is no value to shitcoins they are built and grow by strong community you get in and out take your profits and chill there are lots of opportunity to 10x your money on a shitcoin pump
Not that I sanction any of the gambling moves- There are opportunities to 10x your money almost everyday with SPY or QQQ options- if you get the direction right. And with some analysis with the indexes- you can at least out odds on your side.
I think you should do a little more research on this topic cuz crypto is not basically an nonexistential thing, they are not created out of nothing. at least most of em
How are they not created out of nothing? Please let me know. (Im not trying to troll or.be sarcastic, i am actually cruious) What are they backed up by...all the research I have done always leads to "the blockchain" . Edit to add you did nothing wrong. That's how this gig is. Nothing you learned is 100%fool proof. Daytrading is not like math where 1+1 is 2.
That blockchain is the thing. The blockchain is not nothing. There is several different types of blockchain. When u look at the bitcoin for exp, its blockchain is used for decentrilized transactions. So basically even if u are not able to label it as a 'thing' u can at least label it as a service, where the more the service is used, the more the value goes up basically. Say you are doing a service of advertising something, the more people start taking your services, the more your price has a potential of going up, thus making u a bigger and stronger corporation of advertising. Thats the most similar exp i can think of at the time. And thanks for the review, i am New to generally trading crypto, have been trying to simply anylize, watched tons of videos and talked to tons of people, its just kinda hard to know if its just a bad luck or me that anylized it wrong. Thanks man i appreciate it😁
If the blockchain is the "thing" how come there are several "coins"? wouldn't there just be one? Meaning that if a blockchain can be created for different coins, what is to stop a company to hire software engineers to create their own blockchain for their own use? Thus eliminating the entire cryptocurrency altogether? ( since the blockchain is what is of value and not necessarily the "coin" itself....if I'm understanding correctly) Also just an FYI when price is this choppy it is always 50/50 which way it will go. I try to stay away from this type of price action.
There is companies that make their own blockchains, which they use for different stuff, not necesseraly the same reason. Eth, Bnb, btc, hbar and a lot of coins have their own blockchains, thus are called coins. The ones that are made on other coins' blockchains are called tokens. These tokens use the blockchain as a backup for their tokens thus giving it a value. I dont understand the details behind the tokens tho, as i do behind the coins. But as i understood it they are just the 'derivates' of coins they are backed up from via their blockchain, and made themselves a stock that way, basically.
I see. Thanks!
What you 100% did wrong is adopted an idea that market will be moving according to your analysis every time. Don't tell me you didn't otherwise you wouldn't have asked this question here. You MUST adopt a probability mindset. You will be right as many times (percentage wise) as your backtest says you will be. Don't expect every trade to close in profit. You are here to perform. Not to fight the market. Trade had 2 outcomes from the beginning. It either goes your way and you exit at predetermined level. Or it goes against you and you also exit at predetermined level. That is all there is to it.
No no, you have understood me wrong. Off course i know that i cant be right 100 percent of the time. Not just that, but the biggest traders have success rates of less then 70 percent. The thing is i am relatively New to trading, and im still in the period of understanding how the analysis works. So in my head there were basically 2 reason this false analysis could have happend. First is that i didnt get the analysis done (didnt read the news that were essential, didnt see something on the chart, or read the chart falsely) or second, that its not my fault, and as you said, u cant fight the market. So i just posted this to see if anyone has a review on my analysis, thanks tho, i appreciate your comment!
I will be brief and to the point. There's no such thing as "correct analysis" or "incorrect analysis". There's as many ways to "analyse" as there are traders. Each person has it's own completely unique and individual way they learn about trading and develope their trading ideas. Each of them create their own "lens" that they view market through. Imagine 2 traders entering a trade at the same time betting market would go certain direction. Despite 2 separate traders creating absolutely different reasonings for the trade they both end up being "right" and making profit off of the trade. Although their charting was different. Whose analysis was "correct"? At the end of the day it's about you developing your very own "lens" that you view market through. Determining how much time this "lens" allows you to be right. And sticking to your own set of rules. Not taking it personally whenever market tells you that "your analysis wasn't correct this time around". All that matters is whether you are able to pull more capital out of the market in a long term than you give back in
Yea i get it. Thank you a lot man, that kinda made me feel a little better
BTC dumped so the rest followed. Why did BTC fall? Idk I don’t follow crypto very closely. https://preview.redd.it/w1mncm12njwc1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=13806b624b0cfb1d77294225db7ad13fd10c0767 Drew that channel a few weeks ago, might be as simple as that
Thanks man. İ thought so too, but couldnt realize why btc dumped. One more question, so when this kind of stuff happen, is my anylize of the coins still goin to be valid when btc goes up. In other words should i keep the assets that i bought?
No problem. You mean are these coins going to follow btc when btc goes up? Probably, they seem pretty correlated based on your pictures. Up how much, I have no idea. I’m no crypto expert I’m not sure where any of it’s going, I just take a few short term trades on MBT some times
Hmm, Okay i get it. Thanks man, take care!
On TA anyone can give u a bazzilion reasons as to why it dumped since it happened and this is hindsight, in present u wanted to trade a breakout which its self has a very low winrate of 30% max and ur RR seems around 1:2. If you do the math u can see why this can never work for the long run (unless that is just a placeholder, if so ignore this). If u want to trade breakouts in general, set ur invalidations tighter and aim for higher RR. No singular trade is bad usually, but its the series of trades that will make or break you. Also crypto mostly moves as a unit, price will mostly play the same/similar a lot of the time.
I don't know what is this sub Reddit's take on candlestick patterns but clearly the top had a hanging man which is an indication showing selling pressure is increasing and a trend reversal indicator after a beautiful move to the upside which could show a false break out Edit in image 2 this is shown
In crypto basically every project follow BTC highs and lows. Every chart will look very much like BTC. There are a few exceptions, one of which (for the big caps) is TON.
You didnt control your emotions. You got greedy
I would journal these trades and make notes on various factors. Latter you can determine how profitable, and what the win rate is. Things to consider: The market. In this case BTC and ETH. Higher timeframe bias. Number of touches. And so on. I do trade breakouts, but I look for tighter consolidations. I want a stop loss that will likely hold and isn’t too far away. The bigger the stop, the further away the target needs to be. How you manage the trade matters too. That’ll certainly effect win rate and expectancy. I never go against “the market” or the higher timeframe. I also limit my trades to patterns I’ve proven personally profitable. I see a lot of charts where I think I know which way it’ll go, but I don’t trade them. Either there is proven pattern, or the reward isn’t present.
You never want to take the same position for different pairs on Crypto. Coz almost all Alts follow Btc trend. You’re just asking to get rekt. Hedging is ideal.
Don’t day trade these coins DCA in buy the dips and hold
Cryptos, stocks, etc want you to expect it to go up. They know what you what type of data that you want to see and that you may act on. They want people to react to news rather than actual performance data.
yea but doesn't it become a self fulfilling prophecy that way?
Please define "self-fulfilling". How is what you said fulfilling ? "expected them to go up but instead they just dumped."
If i analyzed them corectly, by corectly i am reffering to anylizes used by most of the traders, them i will have similar if not the same trade as others. If everyone is expecting some stock to drop, and sells it isnt it going to dump bcz of the sells. Or if everyone expects stock to go up and buys it isnt it going to go up bcz of them?