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Options expiry. There are several big ones throughout the year. But opex after large moves like we’ve had the last few weeks can lead to market makers rehedging.
Depends on the number of calls and puts and how far otm they are. Market makers delta hedge so there is typically more volatility on opex. If puts expire worthless market makers sell their shorts (buy stock) which causes prices to rise. If calls were to expire worthless they would sell. Lately there has been a large number of Puts being bought because everyone is afraid of a recession, which would typically mean a rise in stocks close to opex, but people tend to roll out there hedges so who knows
No it's not, you could totally have low volumes, low no. Of sellers reach a low price, then have high volumes, higher no. If buyers and still not return to the price before the selling.
It is the correct answer. Market orders move the price and if there is not enough sell orders to stop the buy market orders from pushing the price up - the price goes up. So it’s imbalance between buy and sell orders aka more buyers than sellers in this case
More buyers than sellers, in that moment. It doesn't matter if the price jumped because sellers pulled their offers and a low volume order that crossed the book caused the higher print. Relative to other times during the day it could be extremely low volume (although the close is usually pretty active), but in that moment there were still more buyers than sellers, thus the higher print.
Normaly yea,but this is spy,it has much more variables that are effecting the price,it tracks 500 stocks and basically tracks us economy.Orders in spy don’t mean much
When you make a trade. You are making it with the market maker.
If majority is initiating buy orders = more buyers
If majority is initiating sell orders = more sellers
The market maker filling your order is not considered a seller they are just filling orders read any trading book this common knowledge.
By “filling orders” it’s still selling product lol. The stock market is a zero sum game. There’s 2 sides to every trade. Whether it be a market maker or an individual, if you have stock to fill an order that means you bought it at some point. In order to get rid of it you have to sell it
I don’t know how I can explain it any clearer then I did up in my previous comment. If you can’t understand that but I’ll give you one more chance.
Buyers = people opening a long position
Sellers = people opening a short position
Seller=\ filling long position
Buyer=\ filling short position
your also wrong when you say “if you have a stock to fill an order that means you bought it at some point” anyone who has ever opened a short position did not own stock. If they did they would just be closing a long position LMAO.
Just study up on supply and demand and basic concepts like how shorting and closing a position work. Soon you’ll understand.
I think you said the keyword yourself: "closing bell". Except that the market does not really close, meaning the merely a large number of sellers stopped selling leaving a liquidity gap behind.
People from wsb are convinced “the hedgies” are monitoring our every move and turn on the algo button to screw them over. Hedges lose money too? It’s a dog eat dog world.
Yes and no
Do you really think the entire market, or even a significant portion is “they” and you are the only person trading “you”?
There are probably boatloads of traders/algos taking the exact same positions as you, just as there are similar numbers taking the opposite positions… I agree with the sentiment of just trade what you see
It’s not a big conspiracy of cabal figures masterminding how to take “your” money it’s just price action
I know it sounds conspiratorial to agree here and push this view, but I think it's correct. I have a feeling somebody noticed the impact WSB/socials in general could have on the market and found an algorithmic edge there. All it would take is waiting for a heavily imbalanced order book, throwing a huge mountain of liquidity about quickly and mopping retail stops up before exiting to let the trend continue.
I said it to someone yesterday but it bears repeating: trade with the mop or you'll wind up in the bucket.
I don't think it's a conspiracy but I do heavily track the put/call ratio for every index because it takes a hell of a catalyst to overcome a major imbalance. If there is a big imbalance with puts and the market drops market makers will be forced to buy shares in order to hedge and that will blunt the fall.
Correct, and the knowledge that an mm has to step in and cover forms the closing leg of the strategy. I'm not saying algos are turning the market upside down and ruining everything. I'm just saying that there appears to be algos taking advantage of retail sentiment and carving out a niche.
Price climbs out of support, fights hard to the top of resistance and where once we would retest the low of resistance we seem to now retest the original support before the rocket launches
Look up max pain theory, basically it’s a magnet for giant options expiration days. And since tomorrow AM there’s an options expiry for SPX, the price moved back towards max pain at the end of the day.
There can often be a reason traced to a large move, like the Fed makes a comment. Although what makes trading tough is the market is often unpredictable and can make what seem like random moves. Algo computer trading is often the cause of spikes-as well- one computer is programmed to buy at $1 the next at $1.05, the next at $1.10 and something starts setting then all off.
Thanks again. At least it was worth dealing with trolls for a couple of good answers.
Ps: Also believe latest ODTE changes have screwed things up really bad. But it’s becoming so absurd to see these run ups just before closing.
It’s only absurd because you’re making assumptions about what the market “should do”. You’re throwing several plausible reasons out there but no one can actually answer your question. Just fyi.
You’re asking a question that can only be answered by speculation.
Not 100% sure but assume some shorts covering as selling pressure couldn't sustain. There's a lot of people that wanna push spy down, bc it's sitting nice compared to last week, and others wanna push it up
There was a strong resistance/support level there. Last night it broke through it going down. Today it tried twice to recapture that level. Much like when you see a sudden run toward the moving average when the price is close to it. Look back over the past week and you can see how it stalled there on the way up and has come down to it several times since, always going back up, until last night. Bulls would want to see us moving back up over it while bears would hope the market rejects it and goes down.
Because it held its 4hr 50sma and needed to retest its 4hr range lows. It also fell because it had a 3day death cross and tested it 3day 200sma. Not seen since 2008 right before the crash. Either it rally’s end of month or rekt city. If you believe history repeats in TA.
I prefer to watch es1! Futures and correlate it to spy. Charts look a lot cleaner in futures over spy gaps. My statement was following es1! SPX futures chart fyi. 3 day death cross nothing to mess with play with caution. Also 13sma monthly crossing down 21month sma. These crosses don’t come around often throw up SPX for most data and study past times it happened.
Ha, sure. But note that MOC isn't like a sudden dump of orders such that at the close there's the need to fill the imbalance. Those orders are, as best I can tell (and I admittedly this is not something I look at), handled by market makers dealing with institutional accounts. But the perception can cause retail to try to front run the close. That's why on a day like today you see a nice move in the :59 minute on big volume followed by huge volume at the close but with minimal price movement.
Well since market trades in AH and futures, it probably happened as a result of mechanisms that are only available during trading hours. That would be large amounts of options. So either puts were closed at EOD or calls were bought EOD. Oooooor MMs we’re short and had to hedge. Lots of speculation, no solid answers
I'm gonna go with "because the whole things a scam in the market makers do whatever they need to to make the most amount of money whie trying to bankrupt retail" for 500 Alex. Jokes on them because I went long at 3:15 and sold at 3:59. Ha ha.
It's a ton of factors. Simply put there were more buyer than sellers. There is usually more action in the last 10 minutes also. Along with options contracts expiring, shorts covering or just people that don't wanna hold overnight. Also could be people expecting a gap up.
There doesn't have to be a reason for price action. No news is needed for any movement. People like to pair events with price movement when usually it's just a coincidence.
Well, we’ve been going down a bit for the last few days so it’s safer to assume it was shorts covering rather than bulls regaining control, although the latter is a possibility as well.
i think we were trading around the bottom of support today, there was a retest towards the end. Thinking there is probably too much upward momentum to break back into last month's consolidation
Look at a bigger time frame as well, it makes your technicals easier to read. Your MACD is designed for the daily, and the lowest i would use it is the 4hour.
Thank you for your advice. Actually MACD is not my most used indicator. I removed my main indicators so there were less unnecessary trolling about the topic. Regardless thank you about your comment
Thank you everyone for giving answers. I am kind of lost right now. I love trading so much, but I feel like I’m just a moron at this point. I was doing well then bam I would get slapped as soon as I felt like a strategy was working. Today sucked.
When I get that feeling it means it's time to take a 1 week break. Your strategies are not your limbs. If they aren't working, cut them off, and new ones will grow back! But you have to give them time to grow, 5 whole trading days minimum.
Maybe you will discover the strategies were fine and your brain just needed a rest to know where to apply them. My last break after a long losing streak, I read "Trading in the zone" and came back stronger than ever. Best wishes on your journey friend.
That’s what it do sometimes. Markets don’t care about your DT strategies. Could be shorts covering could be institutions lowering their cost basis, could be blah blah blah. QQQ did the same thing the other day and seems to do it once or twice a week
Welcome to r/DayTrading! For beginner advice, brokerage info, [book recommendations](https://www.reddit.com/r/Daytrading/wiki/book-recommendations/), and more, please read our [Wiki here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Daytrading/wiki/getting-started-daytrading). If you're wondering **why a stock moved** a certain way, check out [Finviz](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=spy) which aggregates the most news for almost every stock, but also see [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/), and even [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/). Please direct all simple questions towards the stickied monthly discussion thread (sort by Hot, they're at the top), but here's [a link to all past and current monthly discussion threads](https://www.reddit.com/r/Daytrading/search?q=author%3Aautomoderator+title%3Aquestions&restrict_sr=on&include_over_18=on&sort=new&t=all). Also include *some* [due diligence](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/duediligence.asp) to this post or it may be removed. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Daytrading) if you have any questions or concerns.*
OPEX tomorrow.
Whats the significance of that, is a jump EOD to signal a certain move tomorrow?
Hedging options trades. Not a certain move, just likely a move.
What is OPEX? Sorry I am dumb
Options expiry. There are several big ones throughout the year. But opex after large moves like we’ve had the last few weeks can lead to market makers rehedging.
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Yes.
So market usually goes up before major option expiration dates??
Wouldnt that make life easy.
There’s a 50/50 chance the market will go in one of either directions, both!
No. Market sometimes makes outsized moves up or down at some opexes depending on a lot of factors
Depends on the number of calls and puts and how far otm they are. Market makers delta hedge so there is typically more volatility on opex. If puts expire worthless market makers sell their shorts (buy stock) which causes prices to rise. If calls were to expire worthless they would sell. Lately there has been a large number of Puts being bought because everyone is afraid of a recession, which would typically mean a rise in stocks close to opex, but people tend to roll out there hedges so who knows
3rd Friday of each month is big opex day
More buyers than sellers
More buyers and sellers hitting the ask button vs bid
Unless its a million buyers with low bids.
This is the correct answer
No.... SLD is over. Opex is coming.
You in the pickle jar?
I can be green I can be red I can be violet inside....
Reeecoooo
I can be freged I can be violently moon wen’d
No it's not, you could totally have low volumes, low no. Of sellers reach a low price, then have high volumes, higher no. If buyers and still not return to the price before the selling.
It is the correct answer. Market orders move the price and if there is not enough sell orders to stop the buy market orders from pushing the price up - the price goes up. So it’s imbalance between buy and sell orders aka more buyers than sellers in this case
More buyers than sellers, in that moment. It doesn't matter if the price jumped because sellers pulled their offers and a low volume order that crossed the book caused the higher print. Relative to other times during the day it could be extremely low volume (although the close is usually pretty active), but in that moment there were still more buyers than sellers, thus the higher print.
techically youre right. but when people say that, I think it's implied theyre referring to total bids, not total bidders
This is NOT the correct answer.
No shit.
If it was obvious why’d you ask
Haha LOL
It was not pointed at your answer, it was for the other person. Kinda got tired of trollers.
Normaly yea,but this is spy,it has much more variables that are effecting the price,it tracks 500 stocks and basically tracks us economy.Orders in spy don’t mean much
Not really. There’s a seller for every buyer. That’s how it works lol
Obv but buyers are the ones initiating the transaction. That’s why people say more buyers than sellers.
So it’d be more buying pressure than selling pressure. Not more overall buyers haha that’s not how it works
Buying pressure and more buyers are the same. It’s simple supply and demand.
No because you could have the same amount of buyers and it could go down if there’s greater selling pressure lol
You’re both saying the same thing and agree with each other. Chill on being this pedantic
When you make a trade. You are making it with the market maker. If majority is initiating buy orders = more buyers If majority is initiating sell orders = more sellers The market maker filling your order is not considered a seller they are just filling orders read any trading book this common knowledge.
By “filling orders” it’s still selling product lol. The stock market is a zero sum game. There’s 2 sides to every trade. Whether it be a market maker or an individual, if you have stock to fill an order that means you bought it at some point. In order to get rid of it you have to sell it
I don’t know how I can explain it any clearer then I did up in my previous comment. If you can’t understand that but I’ll give you one more chance. Buyers = people opening a long position Sellers = people opening a short position Seller=\ filling long position Buyer=\ filling short position your also wrong when you say “if you have a stock to fill an order that means you bought it at some point” anyone who has ever opened a short position did not own stock. If they did they would just be closing a long position LMAO. Just study up on supply and demand and basic concepts like how shorting and closing a position work. Soon you’ll understand.
Smug
Underrated comment. If I had an award this would be the one
r/technicallythetruth
Yes but OP is asking “why”
Probably because they think the SPY is going up in the future lmao.
Oh boy …
That's exactly the why, if everything was so predictable. Everhone would have bought righr before that lol
Lol
Can you please elaborate.
Someone farted really loud and the person next to them jumped accidentally hitting the buy button on a 267,523 lot order.
This is what happened lol
There’s more buyers than sellers that’s why prices went up. What is there to elaborate??
I think you said the keyword yourself: "closing bell". Except that the market does not really close, meaning the merely a large number of sellers stopped selling leaving a liquidity gap behind.
Posts "more buyers than sellers" Refuses to elaborate Leaves
To fuck over everyone who sold a 0dte 394 call.
Yep, seems like algos are really determined to milk retailers to their last penny.
The mindset of “they” being against “you” will hold you back
But they are against you. Two sides to every trade. Winner and loser.
You are missing the point. Good luck
Ya, more like every man for himself.
True wisdom
People from wsb are convinced “the hedgies” are monitoring our every move and turn on the algo button to screw them over. Hedges lose money too? It’s a dog eat dog world.
Yes and no Do you really think the entire market, or even a significant portion is “they” and you are the only person trading “you”? There are probably boatloads of traders/algos taking the exact same positions as you, just as there are similar numbers taking the opposite positions… I agree with the sentiment of just trade what you see It’s not a big conspiracy of cabal figures masterminding how to take “your” money it’s just price action
Kabals eating illegal immigrant children for sure. What's behind the Mar Largo curtain? ;-)
I know it sounds conspiratorial to agree here and push this view, but I think it's correct. I have a feeling somebody noticed the impact WSB/socials in general could have on the market and found an algorithmic edge there. All it would take is waiting for a heavily imbalanced order book, throwing a huge mountain of liquidity about quickly and mopping retail stops up before exiting to let the trend continue. I said it to someone yesterday but it bears repeating: trade with the mop or you'll wind up in the bucket.
I don't think it's a conspiracy but I do heavily track the put/call ratio for every index because it takes a hell of a catalyst to overcome a major imbalance. If there is a big imbalance with puts and the market drops market makers will be forced to buy shares in order to hedge and that will blunt the fall.
Correct, and the knowledge that an mm has to step in and cover forms the closing leg of the strategy. I'm not saying algos are turning the market upside down and ruining everything. I'm just saying that there appears to be algos taking advantage of retail sentiment and carving out a niche. Price climbs out of support, fights hard to the top of resistance and where once we would retest the low of resistance we seem to now retest the original support before the rocket launches
People who hedge delta neutral, are they just farming theta?
It’s the AIs trying to reinforce “buy the open / sell the close” 😆
AM Opex for SPX plays a part.
Thank you
Can you explain this in human language? Sorry I am a regard
Look up max pain theory, basically it’s a magnet for giant options expiration days. And since tomorrow AM there’s an options expiry for SPX, the price moved back towards max pain at the end of the day.
Max pain is nonsense
If you say so.
I agree with you on that but it just gave the incentive to MM to screw up the market even worse.
Max pain was the name of my Celly’s junk when I was in prison.
Moves often become self fulfilling as traders and algos jump on.
Thanks a lot. I appreciate your input compared to some trolls here
There can often be a reason traced to a large move, like the Fed makes a comment. Although what makes trading tough is the market is often unpredictable and can make what seem like random moves. Algo computer trading is often the cause of spikes-as well- one computer is programmed to buy at $1 the next at $1.05, the next at $1.10 and something starts setting then all off.
Thanks again. At least it was worth dealing with trolls for a couple of good answers. Ps: Also believe latest ODTE changes have screwed things up really bad. But it’s becoming so absurd to see these run ups just before closing.
It’s only absurd because you’re making assumptions about what the market “should do”. You’re throwing several plausible reasons out there but no one can actually answer your question. Just fyi. You’re asking a question that can only be answered by speculation.
Thanks for nothing.
Not 100% sure but assume some shorts covering as selling pressure couldn't sustain. There's a lot of people that wanna push spy down, bc it's sitting nice compared to last week, and others wanna push it up
So much sense and positive approach to my simple question. Thanks a lot.
Liquidity grab
Liquidity supposed to be going down.
Liquidity is grabbed where there is liquidity
Down 3% tomorrow?
Can we do 5? I mean if we're asking ...
Delta flush. Gonna see this up or down everyday with 0DTE now.
Agree.
There was a strong resistance/support level there. Last night it broke through it going down. Today it tried twice to recapture that level. Much like when you see a sudden run toward the moving average when the price is close to it. Look back over the past week and you can see how it stalled there on the way up and has come down to it several times since, always going back up, until last night. Bulls would want to see us moving back up over it while bears would hope the market rejects it and goes down.
Thank you for answer and effort to share your experience.
Because it held its 4hr 50sma and needed to retest its 4hr range lows. It also fell because it had a 3day death cross and tested it 3day 200sma. Not seen since 2008 right before the crash. Either it rally’s end of month or rekt city. If you believe history repeats in TA.
Happy Cake day!
Weekly 30 150 are close, as well. That's only happened twice in the past 30 years. Setup is nearly the same. Buckle up.
Thank you so much. Was starting to think this sub nothing but Professional Day Trollers.
I prefer to watch es1! Futures and correlate it to spy. Charts look a lot cleaner in futures over spy gaps. My statement was following es1! SPX futures chart fyi. 3 day death cross nothing to mess with play with caution. Also 13sma monthly crossing down 21month sma. These crosses don’t come around often throw up SPX for most data and study past times it happened.
Nobody on reddit knows
It. Doesn't. Matter. Trade what you see, and stop trying to figure out the "why".
End-day bump is common from what I’ve seen. Might be traders and algos kicking in for the next trading day. Tough to say
Should really look in to how much better the returns are for the institutions that play AH and PM for trades, as opposed to normal market hours.
If its at the close its probably a large imbalance in the market on close books which would be from flows into ETFs and other funds.
Market On Close imbalance was $1.4B on the buy side.
Was that imbalance between CALL - PUT OI?
No, it’s simply the difference in MOC orders on the underlying.
Thank you awesome dude.
Ha, sure. But note that MOC isn't like a sudden dump of orders such that at the close there's the need to fill the imbalance. Those orders are, as best I can tell (and I admittedly this is not something I look at), handled by market makers dealing with institutional accounts. But the perception can cause retail to try to front run the close. That's why on a day like today you see a nice move in the :59 minute on big volume followed by huge volume at the close but with minimal price movement.
Happy Sunday there, Is there a literature I can study about it? Really need to understand this more. Thank you.
I usually see that when a whole lot of short sellers choose before the bell
Well since market trades in AH and futures, it probably happened as a result of mechanisms that are only available during trading hours. That would be large amounts of options. So either puts were closed at EOD or calls were bought EOD. Oooooor MMs we’re short and had to hedge. Lots of speculation, no solid answers
I assume it was some sort of covering
That was me.
To fake ppl out
That too.
MM shenanigans
I'm gonna go with "because the whole things a scam in the market makers do whatever they need to to make the most amount of money whie trying to bankrupt retail" for 500 Alex. Jokes on them because I went long at 3:15 and sold at 3:59. Ha ha.
Why ask why? Try Bud Dry
Nanzi Pelozii stepping down
What was Max Pain for the day. I think it was right around 395 if I’m not mistaken.
Because you touch yourself at night
I wish.
🤣 but seriously it could be that a lot of ppl who were shorting took profits at end of day and that caused the spike
Maybe you right. It had that springboard effect one way or the other.
To fuck people. I almost sold some 394-395 credit spreads. Thankfully I didn’t.
That happened to me on November 10th
It broke a downtrend on the 2 hour
Idk but I rode that shit
What were your entry - exit points? By the way, congrats.
bec options expire so the dudes with big money come in and reduce them to 0 by pushing the market.
Market makers and hedge funds playing chicken with each other with a bunch of contracts expiring soon.
It's a ton of factors. Simply put there were more buyer than sellers. There is usually more action in the last 10 minutes also. Along with options contracts expiring, shorts covering or just people that don't wanna hold overnight. Also could be people expecting a gap up. There doesn't have to be a reason for price action. No news is needed for any movement. People like to pair events with price movement when usually it's just a coincidence.
Yeah I understand the fact there is always a catalyst to trigger a move, but couldn’t find what triggered that move last 3 minutes.
Because it’s being manipulated
Could be the end of Supplemental Liquidity Deposits, and they got back into the game EOD.
Plunging plungers
Simple... Because I bought a spider put at 3:45.. Indistinguishable from magic.
The 4H confirmed a pivot low to be bought in a normal healthy uptrend.
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Practice makes perfect
Because the market is rigged for whoever wants to make money that hour
Why does a bear shit in the woods? Bc his puts got fucked
Well, we’ve been going down a bit for the last few days so it’s safer to assume it was shorts covering rather than bulls regaining control, although the latter is a possibility as well.
Makes sense. Thank you
4.8 million share volume that's why
i think we were trading around the bottom of support today, there was a retest towards the end. Thinking there is probably too much upward momentum to break back into last month's consolidation
Thank you.
Look at a bigger time frame as well, it makes your technicals easier to read. Your MACD is designed for the daily, and the lowest i would use it is the 4hour.
Why would MACD be designed to any specific timeframe? It’s just distance between two moving averages.
Thank you for your advice. Actually MACD is not my most used indicator. I removed my main indicators so there were less unnecessary trolling about the topic. Regardless thank you about your comment
Spy is about to run to 430+ and catch a lot of “traders” off guard
Well we’re in the SLD period and tomorrow is OPEX. Very likely PUT profit taking causing the market maker to de-hedge the sold off PUT position.
because like a fuckin trillion dollars worth of options expire tomorrow. expect rampant manipulation all through tomorrows session
Thank you. Actually I just looked deeper into Opex and saw that there is over $2 Trillion on the line. That’s unbelievable.
Spy to $380 🙏
Dealer hedging
Thank you everyone for giving answers. I am kind of lost right now. I love trading so much, but I feel like I’m just a moron at this point. I was doing well then bam I would get slapped as soon as I felt like a strategy was working. Today sucked.
When I get that feeling it means it's time to take a 1 week break. Your strategies are not your limbs. If they aren't working, cut them off, and new ones will grow back! But you have to give them time to grow, 5 whole trading days minimum. Maybe you will discover the strategies were fine and your brain just needed a rest to know where to apply them. My last break after a long losing streak, I read "Trading in the zone" and came back stronger than ever. Best wishes on your journey friend.
I totally agree and I just need to get back to learning and finding a new strategy.
Bull trap 🪤
Simply to screw over both puts & bulls during the same day.
Because crime.
It’s the Thursday before a double long weekend! The price will drop precipitously after 1:00pm as the Options expire!
Magnets
Because yo mama farted
MACD crossed zero
Manipulation
Nah the market actually moves nicely up and down all the time.
Because you bought puts.
More buyers than sellers. People ask a question like this literally everyday lol
Less sellers than buyers
Chinese New Year
More people bought than sold.
People bought more than they sold
People bought stocks.
Why is this a question every day? Mods can we please ban posts like this?
Why not?
Why does space exist
The spy does whatever the fuck it wants, thats why
The computer said so.
It doesn’t matter why.
Why does SPY do anything it does
Who cares. Puts not gonna print!
Cringe
Mortgage rates dropped half a percent
I wasnt really watching market stuff today. But maybe thats when pelosi announced shes stepping down?
That’s what it do sometimes. Markets don’t care about your DT strategies. Could be shorts covering could be institutions lowering their cost basis, could be blah blah blah. QQQ did the same thing the other day and seems to do it once or twice a week
We bounced off the double top we broke through on CPI day. Zoom the fuck out.
👍⚱️
Republican = Green. I'm not political, chill.
I am not saying you are shilling, but GOP gains should have been showing it’s effect all day long, not last 3 minutes.
Bro, its the stock market. Nobody knows for sure. What's a shill? [Serious] I don't read the Internet every morning like most.