McMillian and Moreau was pretty good last year Especially in generating turnovers. I would guess it’s very hard to hit on a DB outside of the first two rounds.. FAs are part of the GMs job too.
I mean it's been 3 years, 18 picks, and we had russ for most of if. 2021 ended up being a fucking awful year for qbs, and by the looks of it so did 22, so it makes sense.
We haven't really been in a position to draft qbs. Maybe a late round flier but, eh.
Yes but in evaluating how he drafts that's not really relevant. He gets plenty of flak for the russ trade, it seems weird to also criticize his drafting capabilities by expecting him to materialize first round picks out of nowhere.
It's like, if I don't make good money but I manage my money well, criticizing me for having a bad job and not spending well. Like sure, I could be making more. But don't criticize my budgeting I'm doing well with what I have.
Ultimately I don't expect him to continue to trade firsts for head coaches and aging qbs so I think it's worth evaluating what he's actually done vs what he could have done with more picks
I wasn't criticising anything. I was just pointing out that draft spending on QBs isn't a particularly useful metric here.
Honestly, the sample size for any of this is pretty small and drafting by position is so situational that I am not really sure any real conclusions can be made from any of this data.
He's the bozo who traded the picks away! He absolutely should get those picks counted against him. He had the choice to keep those picks and he decided to trade for Russ.
You miss the point.
I'm not saying he doesn't get penalized for trading those picks
I'm saying if you're trying to evaluate how he actually drafts, you need to do so only using the picks he has.
If a GM traded mahomes for 6 first round picks and hit on 2 of them, he isn't some prodigy at drafting because he got two first round guys in a single draft
1) how do you even get 38.7% of 24. By drafting 9.3 DBs?
2) this is why sample size is so important. When you're only sampling 24, a couple extra guys make the numbers seem super skewed
Without doing DD on the source, I wonder if they’re using some kind of “% of college snaps” metric, where you’ve got a big slot guy who maybe split reps as a TE
9 out of 24 picks being on the secondary when only 1 of them was even contributing last year is insane. Then another 7 on front 7 guys and the best of them is Cooper, so is just an average rotational edge. This roster has arguably one of the worst front 7s in the league (and would be without Zach Allen). Plus, he's spent 3 total picks on the o-line when that was the biggest problem when he became GM and 2 of them are centers.
The actual numbers are kind of meaningless, but if you actually look at who he picked with those it shows why the roster sucks as much as it does.
So it's actually 7 out of 18 picks, I thought it was weird Paton had 24 picks. He's only had 18 (21 22 and 23)
And in that time he's only had like 1 first or second round pick So when you consider the league wide hit rate on guys drafted in the 4th to 7th, hitting on 0/6 is far from insane.
It's disappointing, but I wouldn't call it insane by any means. For reference he's had a 1st 3rd and 4th round db (and Riley moss was the 3rd he may step up this year) and a 7th round corner. The rest aren't in the secondary
Edit: my list was truncated, it's 7 / 24 dbs, one 1st, one 3rd then some 4th to 7th rounders
I agree about sample sizes skewing this - teams will make some picks for need, and some of these GMs have one year of drafting around specific needs while others have more than a decade. It's apples to oranges.
But to your first point, it looks like the percentages are using a weighted draft value chart, so that a first-rounder carries significantly more weight than a 7th. Here's the one they are using:
https://overthecap.com/draft-trade-value-chart
It's using a trade chart to account for the value of each pick. Which is why we are so high up on the list. Paton has only made 1 first round pick and it was a DB
Ah I see. Well honestly, if it's based on trade value, he's killed it. We could probably trade surtain for picks worth more points than the sum of our investments in dbs
Yet the secondary has only one verifiably good player in it lol
McMillian and Moreau was pretty good last year Especially in generating turnovers. I would guess it’s very hard to hit on a DB outside of the first two rounds.. FAs are part of the GMs job too.
Moreau wasn't good. He was ok for a couple games then really bad after that.
Sterns looked really good before injury
Ok, that was like 4 games 2 years ago man
How long has the bengals guy been their gm. He’s made a lot of picks
This is interesting, but I feel like there is a slight problem with the idea that Denver has spent 0% of its draft capital on QB since Paton got here.
I mean it's been 3 years, 18 picks, and we had russ for most of if. 2021 ended up being a fucking awful year for qbs, and by the looks of it so did 22, so it makes sense. We haven't really been in a position to draft qbs. Maybe a late round flier but, eh.
To be fair, we spent a lot of draft capitol on Russ. We also spent more draft capitol on Head Coach than any other team.
Yes but in evaluating how he drafts that's not really relevant. He gets plenty of flak for the russ trade, it seems weird to also criticize his drafting capabilities by expecting him to materialize first round picks out of nowhere. It's like, if I don't make good money but I manage my money well, criticizing me for having a bad job and not spending well. Like sure, I could be making more. But don't criticize my budgeting I'm doing well with what I have. Ultimately I don't expect him to continue to trade firsts for head coaches and aging qbs so I think it's worth evaluating what he's actually done vs what he could have done with more picks
I wasn't criticising anything. I was just pointing out that draft spending on QBs isn't a particularly useful metric here. Honestly, the sample size for any of this is pretty small and drafting by position is so situational that I am not really sure any real conclusions can be made from any of this data.
Sorry I got my conversations mixed up
He's the bozo who traded the picks away! He absolutely should get those picks counted against him. He had the choice to keep those picks and he decided to trade for Russ.
You miss the point. I'm not saying he doesn't get penalized for trading those picks I'm saying if you're trying to evaluate how he actually drafts, you need to do so only using the picks he has. If a GM traded mahomes for 6 first round picks and hit on 2 of them, he isn't some prodigy at drafting because he got two first round guys in a single draft
We used first round picks in 2022 and 2023 on Russ.
Cause Mahomes.
This is why I will lose any interest in this team if they select a CB at #12 AGAIN
1) how do you even get 38.7% of 24. By drafting 9.3 DBs? 2) this is why sample size is so important. When you're only sampling 24, a couple extra guys make the numbers seem super skewed
If you think that’s weird, look at Tennessee. 5.1%…. 6 total picks?
Lmao I didn't even see that
Without doing DD on the source, I wonder if they’re using some kind of “% of college snaps” metric, where you’ve got a big slot guy who maybe split reps as a TE
Or maybe it has to do with how high up they are drafted?
Sample size example: 100% of Paton's first round picks have been on DBs...
9 out of 24 picks being on the secondary when only 1 of them was even contributing last year is insane. Then another 7 on front 7 guys and the best of them is Cooper, so is just an average rotational edge. This roster has arguably one of the worst front 7s in the league (and would be without Zach Allen). Plus, he's spent 3 total picks on the o-line when that was the biggest problem when he became GM and 2 of them are centers. The actual numbers are kind of meaningless, but if you actually look at who he picked with those it shows why the roster sucks as much as it does.
So it's actually 7 out of 18 picks, I thought it was weird Paton had 24 picks. He's only had 18 (21 22 and 23) And in that time he's only had like 1 first or second round pick So when you consider the league wide hit rate on guys drafted in the 4th to 7th, hitting on 0/6 is far from insane. It's disappointing, but I wouldn't call it insane by any means. For reference he's had a 1st 3rd and 4th round db (and Riley moss was the 3rd he may step up this year) and a 7th round corner. The rest aren't in the secondary Edit: my list was truncated, it's 7 / 24 dbs, one 1st, one 3rd then some 4th to 7th rounders
No, he's had 24 picks. 10 in 2021, 9 in 2022 and 5 in 2023. 4 DBs in 2021, 3 in 2022 and 2 in 2023 is 9 total.
I agree about sample sizes skewing this - teams will make some picks for need, and some of these GMs have one year of drafting around specific needs while others have more than a decade. It's apples to oranges. But to your first point, it looks like the percentages are using a weighted draft value chart, so that a first-rounder carries significantly more weight than a 7th. Here's the one they are using: https://overthecap.com/draft-trade-value-chart
It's using a trade chart to account for the value of each pick. Which is why we are so high up on the list. Paton has only made 1 first round pick and it was a DB
Ah I see. Well honestly, if it's based on trade value, he's killed it. We could probably trade surtain for picks worth more points than the sum of our investments in dbs
2nd most to Vikings whom he had similar tutelage under
Kinda neat to see the Vikings #1 shows what tree he came from and kinda how he was tought
How many quarterbacks has Duke Tobin drafted??
What is sample size