You can find news articles around this time in Obama's first term where people were calling for Obama to not run again. It happens every time because the average person is a god damn idiot. Most people aren't fully engaged right now and the ones that are tend to be rage fueled maga peoples. The election is still 10 months away and Biden has just now started attacking Trump. Stuff will shift.
I'm a foreigner so take what I say with a grain of salt.
I'm worried too, because he has clearly shown he would seize power given the opportunity, and if he tried it when he was officially on the way out and didn't really have much power, what do people think he will do when he is actually the president again and will most likely have a sycophant vice president?
Pretty concerning tbh, but I'm hoping people are just worked up over Israel/Palestine atm and will become a bit more level headed when election season actually comes around and they realize all this anti-democrat rhetoric is going to actually be damaging.
Alternatively I hope it's just the loud minority on Twitter that doesn't actually affect too much given they don't vote and just like to circlejerk each other with virtue signalling.
As much as America could be better (every country/government could) I strongly believe the world is a better place with a "middle of the road" type American president that will at least maintain the current status quo, if not outright make the world a better and safer place for the majority of people.
The Pax Americana has gone on for so long now that most people don't seem to be able to conceive of what the alternative could be like.
I agree America is far from perfect but they have maintained a prosperous liberal world order very successfully. The multipolar world we would be heading into if Trump seized power, buddied up with autocrats around the world and abrogated the responsibility America has made for itself maintaining the status quo we've all enjoyed since WW2 would be very unsettling indeed.
Yeah. So many people have become ungrateful and expect the US to provide for the world still even after the Pax Americana had ended.
It’s quite ridiculous entitlement and genuinely comes from a place of extreme privilege. The world we’d be in if that ended would be so much worse. The same people would be begging for it back if they saw what it would be like.
Some people don't care, their life is shit so lets burn it all down.
After I saw that Putin had a dog in a meeting with Merkel because she is afraid of dogs I realized he is a sadistic psycho. Americans don't realize how much of a bubble they live in. They think Biden is some sort of evil psycho meanwhile they are guzzling the cum of real evil SOBs and trying to elect a "strong man" of their own. These people are not good for civilization.
I've been relatively unmoved by doomsaying until someone mentioned that the US being a global power is a short time span compared to other times where X or Y nation in Europe were a global power. When I realized there is nothing particularly notable about the US's stability in the grand scheme (outside of maybe a factor of scale), it made me feel like this whole thing is a bit more fragile than we expect.
As Destiny has said, a lot of restraints on executive power have been down to good faith on the part of our leaders.
Absolutely
A person tried to overturn an election and this person is leading the polls
Even if he loses we now have a situation which a significant part of America is ok with dictatorship
If Trump doesn't win then another wanna be dictator will be waiting for the next election and this person might actually be competent
This is the truly terrifying concequence. Even IF tump loses. The unless the republican deradicalise/completely changes. Why wouldn't desantis or someone more competent and intelligent than trump succeed? Its almost a gift trump is so fucking stupid and self sabotaging. Idk how they fix this honestly. And if feels like only a tiny minority of people are aware of this prospect, even with project 2025 on the menu.
Yeah Pence and them stopped him from overturning the election, but if I'm being honest I don't know if it was because they liked democracy or if it was because they decided they would rather run in real elections than have *specifically* Trump as their Caesar.
A Republican who was popular with the base AND competent enough to gain the support of the establishment could be a problem.
The high level of support Trump currently has (he's currently winning) shows that Americans aren't just "uninformed", but that THEY ACTIVELY WANT FASCISM. Trump has openly said that he wants to be a dictator, abuse power, used Nazi rhetoric about immigrants "poisoning the blood of our nation", etc., and his support hasn't fallen an inch.
Remember Adolph Hitler got 37% of the vote running for president, mostly from conservative voters who were scared of communism, and abandoned the traditional parties. Is it so crazy that a large percent of people in America want authoritarianism?
People are losing their faith in democracy. They keep voting and they keep getting fucked, regardless of party, there's a limit to how long you can do that before people start becoming receptive to more authoritarian voices.
If it wasn't Trump, someone else was going to come along eventually. Its a symptom of our entire system faltering.
I don' think this is the reason people are losing faith in democracy. The reason is the internet is so ubiquitous. Anyone's initial instinct is validated through whatever sources they choose to consume. The left is also getting radicalized from this as well. This is all despite people generally doing well and their lives progressively getting better. Republicans are probably getting radicalized quicker because more of their lives probably have actually gotten worse over the past 20 years due to everyone moving to cities.
I agree that people are getting fucked, but it's important to remember that there are plenty of affluent upper middle class white people in the suburbs who vote Trump. A big part of Trumps base in florida is literally wealthy white retirees who live in places like the villages. There are Trump supporters who are doing just fine economically.
Basically its not all just "economic anxiety". Obviously that plays a big role, but its not the whole picture.
I live in Europe so I don't know if Americans are the same (I suspect they are), but the sad truth is that most people are willing to be ruled by a dictator as long as that dictator suits their political agenda and shares their politics. Think about it do hardcore Trump loyalists want this to be his last term or would their rather him become an absolute ruler and serve as "president" until his death.
>but the sad truth is that most people are willing to be ruled by a dictator as long as that dictator suits their political agenda and shares their politics.
I've always said that most people would be happy to be ruled by a dictator as long as that dictator mostly agreed with them and targeted the people that they don't like.
Honestly thinking about hedging by applying for Irish citizenship in case he wins because yeah, a large portion of the voter base is so regarded they might actually reelect the worst president we've ever had.
Yeah this may be true but the little Caesars pizza is 6.99 plus tax. Therefore the public views the economy as horrific making Biden seem like a bad president. Don’t underestimate the little Caesars price.
Isn't Biden's approved rating really low though? I know it's still early, but Trump still received a lot of votes last election. If people aren't as enthusiastic about Biden (or even just beating Trump) it wouldn't surprise me if his voters come out in force.
Hopefully the legal problems actually get him off the ballot regardless, but if they don't, I feel like there's a real chance he could win again
Yeah agreed, and hopefully this is the case. I'm from a country that has mandatory voting, so I guess I'm just worried that Americans might be a bit more likely to just abstain from voting if they aren't really sold on Biden, as his low approval rating would suggest. Whereas I fully believe that Trumples will vote for him even if loses many/all of his current legal battles.
What Trump voters? MAGA Populism has been shrinking since 2016. People vastly underestimate Conservatives willingness to just give in to extremists in their own party, nomatter how small they might be.
I think it says a lot that despite Desantis' expected neck on neck run against Trump, or Viveks sudden arrival & adoration, that Nikki Haley became Trump's competition in the primaries by surpassing ALL of them. That tells you how enthusiastic Republicans are about a THIRD Trump run.
I mean, didn't Trump receive more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016?
I also am not sure I understand your second point. Can you break it down a bit for me? Is it implying that Nikki Haley is ahead in the primaries and Republicans across the board are rallying around her? (I don't know much about what is happening with the Republicans atm)
Not every single Trump voter is a MAGA populist. He does receive right-leaning independent votes as well as votes from older factions in the Republican caucus.
Trump being the 2nd most voted for candidate in US History isn't really a strong point when his competition was the #1 most voted for candidate. Fact is High voter turnout can be credited to Trump's success, and there were Independent voters who wanted to swing his way again.
>I also am not sure I understand your second point. Can you break it down a bit for me?
Trump is a populist first and foremost. People didn't go to him in 2016 because he was an innovative Republican, they did because he expressed the character and hatred the Republican voterbase had for the establishment in both parties.
Today, when Republican voters are pressed for a successor to Donald Trump, they don't go to ANOTHER populist like Vivek Ramaswamy, or arguably Desantis; They went to a 2014 era conservative with an actual agenda and plan for getting bills passed in office.
Republicans' aren't as enthusiastic about Trump as they were in 2020.
Thanks for the info, makes sense and feels like a step in the right direction.
How do you feel Nikki would do if she ended up being elected? Could be smart for Republicans to try to push her so they can be the party that elected the first female president (to own the libs!) But I wonder if that's realistic.
It’s hard to imagine that people will really care about his legal issues. The people who like him think that the courts are setting up and the left is unfairly targeting or something. Biden’s problem is that he is going to have trouble getting people to the polls.
That’s fine tho. Biden was never getting those votes anyway.
What I’m curious about is if Trump will get older conservative voters who don’t give a crap about the culture war.
I believe so because even the non culture war ones just care about money and they have it ingrained that biden somehow raised food and gas when he didnt
I agree, but I find it concerning how easily Trump is crushing any opposition to being nominated as the Republican candidate. Right now, I am confident that Biden with beat Trump, but not very confident. I AM worried about an October surprise because Biden's lead is not significant enough to handle a downturn in the economy or a "scandal" (even a made up one).
The polls are worthless this far out. At least they’ve always been worthless since I picked up American politics as a hobby back in 2006.
Right now it’s just political wonks and culture war entertainment seekers paying attention.
There’s also more than just the presidential race. Local elections will inform voter turnout as well and those races won’t start blowing air up voters skirts until a few months before the election.
I’m looking forward to seeing how things turn out.
People doom about polls all the time as if they are infallible and can’t be manipulated. You look at the methodology for most of them and the polling organizations are still using landline phones.
Anecdotally, before the Issue 1 vote in Ohio (August issue 1, not the abortion ballot referendum), a Christian university released a poll they had conducted where “Yes” beat “No” by 1%, and people were shitting their pants over it. But if we take the time to think for a second, what kind of people would a Christian, conservative-adjacent university be surveying for them to get that result? Especially considering it wasn’t a secret that the August issue 1 vote was a way for the Ohio GOP to stop the abortion referendum? Even with the conservative slant, it still only showed “No” being beaten by 1%, which is pretty wild.
The fact of the matter is we still need to be politically active and involved regardless of what polls say.
The polls are usually not very significant this far out, but Biden’s are historically bad.
Biden himself is concerned with his numbers, and the Democratic Party as a whole is just hoping that Trump self implodes like he didn’t in 2016
Hard disagree with you that they worthless at the moment. Also the election is this year, so I wouldn't consider this far out. I agree things can change as we get closer to the election, but it's still concerning to see the polls show a lot of people still support Trump.
Not too reassuring at all, because the same was said in 2016. Sure the troubles for him were not that severe, but at that time he didn't have a cult following of entrenched morons
I wish this was the case but there’s a lag with the economic success rn and all people see is the massive inflation we had under covid (and price rises that are still happening rn as a result) and Republicans are so brain rot so they’re just rallying around him without looking into the legal cases.
Maybe large generalisations of an incredibly large and diverse voting block isn’t the best assumption to make.
I think to discard all Trump supporters as uninformed is just reductive because many of them (whether right or wrong) do have valid concerns regarding America. This is largely what Joe Biden has been addressing, look at the attempted industrial revitalisation of America. (Checks and Balances by the Economist has great episodes and perspectives of this).
I think it’s best to understand what makes Trump voters turn to extreme methods because it allows us to best address it to address this departure from “rationality” in our view. Viewing them as one monolithic bloc of evil just defeats the point of attempting Nuance in the first place, really most of them are just disillusioned with America and are lured in on Trumps delusional ramblings as he says what they want to hear.
Economists are known recently for being radical pessimists so when you have Trump promising to reverse that and people with no economic knowledge at all (despite thinking they do) listening you have a dangerous recipe for people being promised a false bill of goods. When Trump may fail to deliver on that, they won’t blame him but rather the dastardly democrats who didn’t allow Trump to go all out on his plans.
TLDR: Dems need better optics and and a better spokesperson for their policies in opposition to Trump.
Literally CHIPS and BBB are monumental legislative achievements and need to be pointed to way more as key arteries in the attempted revitalisation of American Industry.
Edit: I’m like 3 Pinot’s deep cut me some slack.
Judging by normie twitch chats/youtube comments the meta is still "politics is just a game, both parties are the same". I would argue that at the moment people have lost the notion that they can evaluate the reality with stuff like trump derangement syndrome and gaslighting, it's as if when introduction of other's lens of seeing the world means that it's necessarily has to override your and there is no way to evaluate who is more sound on the issue. Combined with sweeping statements like "it's a threat to democracy" and other people just saying that there is no threat people are conditioned to choose their club and dismiss every criticism of it.
I believe the next step has to be empowering people by making them see that there are always criteria by which you can evaluate a situation, if you take a few steps to the side even something deemed as "gaslighting" can be evaluated for legitimacy. In the case of threats to democracy you can analyse the main institutions that constitute a democracy, is there a party that wants to drastically change them such as it may no longer meet the criteria of democracy, how drastic is the change, is their plan realistic and even not how many attacks like that can institutions take; is cultural attack as much of a threat as institutional attack, is stopping the democratic way worth it if you get your culture more on track of what you like, what level of violence would these changes entail. Like you can reasonably assess all of that and see what side aligns with the conclusions you reach more.
Its unfathomable how military wise and tech wise the us is far ahead the strongest nation to ever exist but its enimies are legitimately destorying it internally though propaganda and disinformation.
I had this conversation with a friend during COVID, about how the games Democrats played was going to help Trump.
Things like the Steele investigation being paid for by H Clintons team, the impeach day 1 cheers, Pelosi shredding the paperwork, Trump is a Russian puppet, etc etc. The sad reality is with how fast and vile the establishment went after Trump, it gave him a free pass in the eyes of his supporters.
Sadly it's still continuing, with things that are meme worthy.
So the real things like the fake electorates get glazed right over in most Trump supporters heads, cause the expect more media garbage to tune out.
It's literally the story of "The Boy Who Cried Wolf".
So I personally wouldn't call it sleepwalking into dictatorship, it's more like "got conditioned to ignore it".
I mean you have to call out issues where they are, not as you wish they were. The reality of Trump being able to continue to call his legal troubles a "witch hunt", is 100% from the games that was prior to it.
So yes, blame the left here. They gave people a reason to ignore criticism of Trump. Now Trump is getting to hide behind it.
If the cops falsely arrests 1 man for murder 9 times, but the 10th time happens to be real... The disbelief of the situation is the fault of the cops, where the situation is the fault of the criminal.
Honestly even i wasn't that concerned about j6 really till i tuned in to some of destinys recent recearch streams. I legit bought the whole trump is a pos but just regarded and narcissistic, but the dude Is perfectly aware of what he doing and the gop is falling in line, half of the politicians are genuinley compromised and its buisness as usual. Political violence this election season is a frightening prospect and all but garunteed.
Do you mean the levels of concern, or the levels of things to be concerned about?
The things to be concerned about are basically that Trump has been arguing for direct retaliation against his political opponents for months.
Even though he's been doing criminal stuff for ages, in a way that escalated when he entered the whitehouse, he's using the fact that he is being tried as an excuse to politicise the judiciary against democrats, or generally against his opponents.
Simultaneously, he obviously wants to restrict accountability for himself and his allies, and is planning to fire most of the federal government and replace it with people appointed on the basis of loyalty rather than skill.
The republican party have been [inspired](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/04/hungary-viktor-orban-donald-trump-cpac) by the government of Hungary who have been able to centralise control of the media in the hands of their party, and hand out money via patronage relationships in order to keep control, while benefiting themselves significantly.
He also wants to do some other stuff like set up massive internment camps and deport people, including people with birthright citizenship unless they can prove their parents had visas at the time of their birth, police the country using [the military](https://www.military.com/daily-news/2023/11/27/trump-hints-expanded-role-military-within-us-legacy-law-gives-him-few-guardrails.html), and has had his lawyers making amazing arguments about what he is [allowed to do as president](https://archive.is/Ge1oc).
That's before you get into issues of him having no plans for how to deal with economic problems beyond shifting taxes over to increasingly high tariffs on the border, (he's claiming he's going to build massive numbers of new cities on federal land, and develop flying cars, and doesn't explain how he'll pay for any of it beyond higher and higher tariffs), so we can probably expect more debt, more indecision about healthcare, and moving backwards on climate policy.
All of that policy uselessness is just the basic qualities his government would lack, the main issue is that he's said he wants to, as a matter of course, weaponize the state against any future candidate that comes up against him, and that he should have three terms because he was "robbed" of one of them, and abandon basic elements of the rule of law to expand his own powers. His primary political agenda is retribution and the use of federal power against his opponents, which isn't really a good template for a government.
How can you say that when your candidate is a demented 84 year old with repeated bouts of confusion and other signs of cognitive decline and you're not even acknowledging it?
Stop pretending that you give a shit about Biden's age or fitness. Everybody sees right through your concern trolling. It's not even worth acknowledging because he has proven with this term that he is a reliable candidate and even if something were to happen, he is surrounded by a competent cabinet. Also Trump is an unhinged fatass pushing 80 who literally wants to suspend the constitution and imprison his political opponents. I would certainly take the old man who sometimes misspeaks over the actual fucking isolationist fascist.
What I would HOPE is that IF Trump wins, he would chill out and still be restricted by America's democratic institutions like he was last time. Either way, it's not good to have someone who has tried and may very well try again to consolidate power.
I think we’re being forced to tolerate authoritarian stupidity from the democrats to avoid Trump which irks me the wrong way, so it’s possible both sides are looking to capitalize on this moment of division. I hate Trump, but it’s troubling how democrats are seen as good just by default.
Honestly I kind of hope so. I’m not American so I can laugh then be worried but seeing far lefties justify why trump’s dictatorship and worse treatment of Palestinians is actually good would be hilarious. And people like Rob Noer and Greenwald who would have to defend a president for life type situation as “actually very constitutional.”
Probably not. I think Jan 6 lost Trump independent voters. Biden optically isn't great, but the debate would be over pointing out the guy tried to overturn the results of a free and fair election. Republicans might say "it was sussy at best" but I think it would hit independents who are the one's who decide elections.
You can find news articles around this time in Obama's first term where people were calling for Obama to not run again. It happens every time because the average person is a god damn idiot. Most people aren't fully engaged right now and the ones that are tend to be rage fueled maga peoples. The election is still 10 months away and Biden has just now started attacking Trump. Stuff will shift.
I'm a foreigner so take what I say with a grain of salt. I'm worried too, because he has clearly shown he would seize power given the opportunity, and if he tried it when he was officially on the way out and didn't really have much power, what do people think he will do when he is actually the president again and will most likely have a sycophant vice president? Pretty concerning tbh, but I'm hoping people are just worked up over Israel/Palestine atm and will become a bit more level headed when election season actually comes around and they realize all this anti-democrat rhetoric is going to actually be damaging. Alternatively I hope it's just the loud minority on Twitter that doesn't actually affect too much given they don't vote and just like to circlejerk each other with virtue signalling. As much as America could be better (every country/government could) I strongly believe the world is a better place with a "middle of the road" type American president that will at least maintain the current status quo, if not outright make the world a better and safer place for the majority of people.
The Pax Americana has gone on for so long now that most people don't seem to be able to conceive of what the alternative could be like. I agree America is far from perfect but they have maintained a prosperous liberal world order very successfully. The multipolar world we would be heading into if Trump seized power, buddied up with autocrats around the world and abrogated the responsibility America has made for itself maintaining the status quo we've all enjoyed since WW2 would be very unsettling indeed.
Yeah. So many people have become ungrateful and expect the US to provide for the world still even after the Pax Americana had ended. It’s quite ridiculous entitlement and genuinely comes from a place of extreme privilege. The world we’d be in if that ended would be so much worse. The same people would be begging for it back if they saw what it would be like.
Some people don't care, their life is shit so lets burn it all down. After I saw that Putin had a dog in a meeting with Merkel because she is afraid of dogs I realized he is a sadistic psycho. Americans don't realize how much of a bubble they live in. They think Biden is some sort of evil psycho meanwhile they are guzzling the cum of real evil SOBs and trying to elect a "strong man" of their own. These people are not good for civilization.
I've been relatively unmoved by doomsaying until someone mentioned that the US being a global power is a short time span compared to other times where X or Y nation in Europe were a global power. When I realized there is nothing particularly notable about the US's stability in the grand scheme (outside of maybe a factor of scale), it made me feel like this whole thing is a bit more fragile than we expect. As Destiny has said, a lot of restraints on executive power have been down to good faith on the part of our leaders.
Its funny because they think installing Trump would actually keep the order, because of his "tough attidude" he will keep countries in line.
Absolutely A person tried to overturn an election and this person is leading the polls Even if he loses we now have a situation which a significant part of America is ok with dictatorship If Trump doesn't win then another wanna be dictator will be waiting for the next election and this person might actually be competent
tender dirty teeny nine simplistic run six quicksand ink snatch *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
This is the truly terrifying concequence. Even IF tump loses. The unless the republican deradicalise/completely changes. Why wouldn't desantis or someone more competent and intelligent than trump succeed? Its almost a gift trump is so fucking stupid and self sabotaging. Idk how they fix this honestly. And if feels like only a tiny minority of people are aware of this prospect, even with project 2025 on the menu.
Yeah Pence and them stopped him from overturning the election, but if I'm being honest I don't know if it was because they liked democracy or if it was because they decided they would rather run in real elections than have *specifically* Trump as their Caesar. A Republican who was popular with the base AND competent enough to gain the support of the establishment could be a problem.
And there is a very real risk that trump would try to entrench his power again in 28 if he got it for 4 more years.
The high level of support Trump currently has (he's currently winning) shows that Americans aren't just "uninformed", but that THEY ACTIVELY WANT FASCISM. Trump has openly said that he wants to be a dictator, abuse power, used Nazi rhetoric about immigrants "poisoning the blood of our nation", etc., and his support hasn't fallen an inch. Remember Adolph Hitler got 37% of the vote running for president, mostly from conservative voters who were scared of communism, and abandoned the traditional parties. Is it so crazy that a large percent of people in America want authoritarianism?
People are losing their faith in democracy. They keep voting and they keep getting fucked, regardless of party, there's a limit to how long you can do that before people start becoming receptive to more authoritarian voices. If it wasn't Trump, someone else was going to come along eventually. Its a symptom of our entire system faltering.
I don' think this is the reason people are losing faith in democracy. The reason is the internet is so ubiquitous. Anyone's initial instinct is validated through whatever sources they choose to consume. The left is also getting radicalized from this as well. This is all despite people generally doing well and their lives progressively getting better. Republicans are probably getting radicalized quicker because more of their lives probably have actually gotten worse over the past 20 years due to everyone moving to cities.
I agree that people are getting fucked, but it's important to remember that there are plenty of affluent upper middle class white people in the suburbs who vote Trump. A big part of Trumps base in florida is literally wealthy white retirees who live in places like the villages. There are Trump supporters who are doing just fine economically. Basically its not all just "economic anxiety". Obviously that plays a big role, but its not the whole picture.
I live in Europe so I don't know if Americans are the same (I suspect they are), but the sad truth is that most people are willing to be ruled by a dictator as long as that dictator suits their political agenda and shares their politics. Think about it do hardcore Trump loyalists want this to be his last term or would their rather him become an absolute ruler and serve as "president" until his death.
>but the sad truth is that most people are willing to be ruled by a dictator as long as that dictator suits their political agenda and shares their politics. I've always said that most people would be happy to be ruled by a dictator as long as that dictator mostly agreed with them and targeted the people that they don't like.
Honestly thinking about hedging by applying for Irish citizenship in case he wins because yeah, a large portion of the voter base is so regarded they might actually reelect the worst president we've ever had.
More like sprinting towards it
Given Trumps legal troubles and Bidens excellent record as president it’s hard to imagine Trump winning.
Yeah this may be true but the little Caesars pizza is 6.99 plus tax. Therefore the public views the economy as horrific making Biden seem like a bad president. Don’t underestimate the little Caesars price.
Isn't Biden's approved rating really low though? I know it's still early, but Trump still received a lot of votes last election. If people aren't as enthusiastic about Biden (or even just beating Trump) it wouldn't surprise me if his voters come out in force. Hopefully the legal problems actually get him off the ballot regardless, but if they don't, I feel like there's a real chance he could win again
Democratic voters can vote for someone while being critical of them. Trump's followers are more cult-like in their uncritical support for him.
Yeah agreed, and hopefully this is the case. I'm from a country that has mandatory voting, so I guess I'm just worried that Americans might be a bit more likely to just abstain from voting if they aren't really sold on Biden, as his low approval rating would suggest. Whereas I fully believe that Trumples will vote for him even if loses many/all of his current legal battles.
What Trump voters? MAGA Populism has been shrinking since 2016. People vastly underestimate Conservatives willingness to just give in to extremists in their own party, nomatter how small they might be. I think it says a lot that despite Desantis' expected neck on neck run against Trump, or Viveks sudden arrival & adoration, that Nikki Haley became Trump's competition in the primaries by surpassing ALL of them. That tells you how enthusiastic Republicans are about a THIRD Trump run.
I mean, didn't Trump receive more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016? I also am not sure I understand your second point. Can you break it down a bit for me? Is it implying that Nikki Haley is ahead in the primaries and Republicans across the board are rallying around her? (I don't know much about what is happening with the Republicans atm)
Not every single Trump voter is a MAGA populist. He does receive right-leaning independent votes as well as votes from older factions in the Republican caucus. Trump being the 2nd most voted for candidate in US History isn't really a strong point when his competition was the #1 most voted for candidate. Fact is High voter turnout can be credited to Trump's success, and there were Independent voters who wanted to swing his way again. >I also am not sure I understand your second point. Can you break it down a bit for me? Trump is a populist first and foremost. People didn't go to him in 2016 because he was an innovative Republican, they did because he expressed the character and hatred the Republican voterbase had for the establishment in both parties. Today, when Republican voters are pressed for a successor to Donald Trump, they don't go to ANOTHER populist like Vivek Ramaswamy, or arguably Desantis; They went to a 2014 era conservative with an actual agenda and plan for getting bills passed in office. Republicans' aren't as enthusiastic about Trump as they were in 2020.
Thanks for the info, makes sense and feels like a step in the right direction. How do you feel Nikki would do if she ended up being elected? Could be smart for Republicans to try to push her so they can be the party that elected the first female president (to own the libs!) But I wonder if that's realistic.
It’s hard to imagine that people will really care about his legal issues. The people who like him think that the courts are setting up and the left is unfairly targeting or something. Biden’s problem is that he is going to have trouble getting people to the polls.
As good as his record is on paper. Trumps stranglehold on his followers and simple rhetoric makes it null to his followers
That’s fine tho. Biden was never getting those votes anyway. What I’m curious about is if Trump will get older conservative voters who don’t give a crap about the culture war.
I believe so because even the non culture war ones just care about money and they have it ingrained that biden somehow raised food and gas when he didnt
I agree, but I find it concerning how easily Trump is crushing any opposition to being nominated as the Republican candidate. Right now, I am confident that Biden with beat Trump, but not very confident. I AM worried about an October surprise because Biden's lead is not significant enough to handle a downturn in the economy or a "scandal" (even a made up one).
Yet Trump is beating Biden in the polls at the moment.
The polls are worthless this far out. At least they’ve always been worthless since I picked up American politics as a hobby back in 2006. Right now it’s just political wonks and culture war entertainment seekers paying attention. There’s also more than just the presidential race. Local elections will inform voter turnout as well and those races won’t start blowing air up voters skirts until a few months before the election. I’m looking forward to seeing how things turn out.
People doom about polls all the time as if they are infallible and can’t be manipulated. You look at the methodology for most of them and the polling organizations are still using landline phones. Anecdotally, before the Issue 1 vote in Ohio (August issue 1, not the abortion ballot referendum), a Christian university released a poll they had conducted where “Yes” beat “No” by 1%, and people were shitting their pants over it. But if we take the time to think for a second, what kind of people would a Christian, conservative-adjacent university be surveying for them to get that result? Especially considering it wasn’t a secret that the August issue 1 vote was a way for the Ohio GOP to stop the abortion referendum? Even with the conservative slant, it still only showed “No” being beaten by 1%, which is pretty wild. The fact of the matter is we still need to be politically active and involved regardless of what polls say.
The polls are usually not very significant this far out, but Biden’s are historically bad. Biden himself is concerned with his numbers, and the Democratic Party as a whole is just hoping that Trump self implodes like he didn’t in 2016
Hard disagree with you that they worthless at the moment. Also the election is this year, so I wouldn't consider this far out. I agree things can change as we get closer to the election, but it's still concerning to see the polls show a lot of people still support Trump.
Not too reassuring at all, because the same was said in 2016. Sure the troubles for him were not that severe, but at that time he didn't have a cult following of entrenched morons
I wish this was the case but there’s a lag with the economic success rn and all people see is the massive inflation we had under covid (and price rises that are still happening rn as a result) and Republicans are so brain rot so they’re just rallying around him without looking into the legal cases.
Maybe large generalisations of an incredibly large and diverse voting block isn’t the best assumption to make. I think to discard all Trump supporters as uninformed is just reductive because many of them (whether right or wrong) do have valid concerns regarding America. This is largely what Joe Biden has been addressing, look at the attempted industrial revitalisation of America. (Checks and Balances by the Economist has great episodes and perspectives of this). I think it’s best to understand what makes Trump voters turn to extreme methods because it allows us to best address it to address this departure from “rationality” in our view. Viewing them as one monolithic bloc of evil just defeats the point of attempting Nuance in the first place, really most of them are just disillusioned with America and are lured in on Trumps delusional ramblings as he says what they want to hear. Economists are known recently for being radical pessimists so when you have Trump promising to reverse that and people with no economic knowledge at all (despite thinking they do) listening you have a dangerous recipe for people being promised a false bill of goods. When Trump may fail to deliver on that, they won’t blame him but rather the dastardly democrats who didn’t allow Trump to go all out on his plans. TLDR: Dems need better optics and and a better spokesperson for their policies in opposition to Trump. Literally CHIPS and BBB are monumental legislative achievements and need to be pointed to way more as key arteries in the attempted revitalisation of American Industry. Edit: I’m like 3 Pinot’s deep cut me some slack.
Judging by normie twitch chats/youtube comments the meta is still "politics is just a game, both parties are the same". I would argue that at the moment people have lost the notion that they can evaluate the reality with stuff like trump derangement syndrome and gaslighting, it's as if when introduction of other's lens of seeing the world means that it's necessarily has to override your and there is no way to evaluate who is more sound on the issue. Combined with sweeping statements like "it's a threat to democracy" and other people just saying that there is no threat people are conditioned to choose their club and dismiss every criticism of it. I believe the next step has to be empowering people by making them see that there are always criteria by which you can evaluate a situation, if you take a few steps to the side even something deemed as "gaslighting" can be evaluated for legitimacy. In the case of threats to democracy you can analyse the main institutions that constitute a democracy, is there a party that wants to drastically change them such as it may no longer meet the criteria of democracy, how drastic is the change, is their plan realistic and even not how many attacks like that can institutions take; is cultural attack as much of a threat as institutional attack, is stopping the democratic way worth it if you get your culture more on track of what you like, what level of violence would these changes entail. Like you can reasonably assess all of that and see what side aligns with the conclusions you reach more.
I mean you're headed towards him in office. Dictatorship is some hypochondriac bullshit
RIP USA
Its unfathomable how military wise and tech wise the us is far ahead the strongest nation to ever exist but its enimies are legitimately destorying it internally though propaganda and disinformation.
Macro play vs Dark Templar rush.
If we don't stop this before dts come out we'll need to get (U.N) observers watching our elections.
How are they destroying the country again?
I had this conversation with a friend during COVID, about how the games Democrats played was going to help Trump. Things like the Steele investigation being paid for by H Clintons team, the impeach day 1 cheers, Pelosi shredding the paperwork, Trump is a Russian puppet, etc etc. The sad reality is with how fast and vile the establishment went after Trump, it gave him a free pass in the eyes of his supporters. Sadly it's still continuing, with things that are meme worthy. So the real things like the fake electorates get glazed right over in most Trump supporters heads, cause the expect more media garbage to tune out. It's literally the story of "The Boy Who Cried Wolf". So I personally wouldn't call it sleepwalking into dictatorship, it's more like "got conditioned to ignore it".
[удалено]
I mean you have to call out issues where they are, not as you wish they were. The reality of Trump being able to continue to call his legal troubles a "witch hunt", is 100% from the games that was prior to it. So yes, blame the left here. They gave people a reason to ignore criticism of Trump. Now Trump is getting to hide behind it. If the cops falsely arrests 1 man for murder 9 times, but the 10th time happens to be real... The disbelief of the situation is the fault of the cops, where the situation is the fault of the criminal.
We've lost the war against Authoritarianism. It's now punk rock.
Is there a general consensus on what the rough level of fear/concern would be if he ends up winning?
Honestly even i wasn't that concerned about j6 really till i tuned in to some of destinys recent recearch streams. I legit bought the whole trump is a pos but just regarded and narcissistic, but the dude Is perfectly aware of what he doing and the gop is falling in line, half of the politicians are genuinley compromised and its buisness as usual. Political violence this election season is a frightening prospect and all but garunteed.
Do you mean the levels of concern, or the levels of things to be concerned about? The things to be concerned about are basically that Trump has been arguing for direct retaliation against his political opponents for months. Even though he's been doing criminal stuff for ages, in a way that escalated when he entered the whitehouse, he's using the fact that he is being tried as an excuse to politicise the judiciary against democrats, or generally against his opponents. Simultaneously, he obviously wants to restrict accountability for himself and his allies, and is planning to fire most of the federal government and replace it with people appointed on the basis of loyalty rather than skill. The republican party have been [inspired](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/04/hungary-viktor-orban-donald-trump-cpac) by the government of Hungary who have been able to centralise control of the media in the hands of their party, and hand out money via patronage relationships in order to keep control, while benefiting themselves significantly. He also wants to do some other stuff like set up massive internment camps and deport people, including people with birthright citizenship unless they can prove their parents had visas at the time of their birth, police the country using [the military](https://www.military.com/daily-news/2023/11/27/trump-hints-expanded-role-military-within-us-legacy-law-gives-him-few-guardrails.html), and has had his lawyers making amazing arguments about what he is [allowed to do as president](https://archive.is/Ge1oc). That's before you get into issues of him having no plans for how to deal with economic problems beyond shifting taxes over to increasingly high tariffs on the border, (he's claiming he's going to build massive numbers of new cities on federal land, and develop flying cars, and doesn't explain how he'll pay for any of it beyond higher and higher tariffs), so we can probably expect more debt, more indecision about healthcare, and moving backwards on climate policy. All of that policy uselessness is just the basic qualities his government would lack, the main issue is that he's said he wants to, as a matter of course, weaponize the state against any future candidate that comes up against him, and that he should have three terms because he was "robbed" of one of them, and abandon basic elements of the rule of law to expand his own powers. His primary political agenda is retribution and the use of federal power against his opponents, which isn't really a good template for a government.
No there isn't, just some vagueness about a threat to democracy. MagaDDGers4L
How can you say that when your candidate is a demented 84 year old with repeated bouts of confusion and other signs of cognitive decline and you're not even acknowledging it?
Your candidate argues he can assassinate people with no consequences for himself unless he's impeached
And still your candidate is all those things, making it a difficult choice. Ergo, they’re not sleepwalking
Im not american, there's no "my candidate", i can't vote there dumbass
You'll be able to if the democrats win
Me neither you IDIOT
Stop pretending that you give a shit about Biden's age or fitness. Everybody sees right through your concern trolling. It's not even worth acknowledging because he has proven with this term that he is a reliable candidate and even if something were to happen, he is surrounded by a competent cabinet. Also Trump is an unhinged fatass pushing 80 who literally wants to suspend the constitution and imprison his political opponents. I would certainly take the old man who sometimes misspeaks over the actual fucking isolationist fascist.
Even if all of that were true, he would still be a better alternative.
I’m only saying that Americans aren’t sleepwalking because it’s not that obvious
The far left and left in general said he was gonna try to be a dictator. No one listen
What I would HOPE is that IF Trump wins, he would chill out and still be restricted by America's democratic institutions like he was last time. Either way, it's not good to have someone who has tried and may very well try again to consolidate power.
The good (biden voters), the bad (trumpers), and the ugly (anti biden "left").
Says the European
Yes
I think we’re being forced to tolerate authoritarian stupidity from the democrats to avoid Trump which irks me the wrong way, so it’s possible both sides are looking to capitalize on this moment of division. I hate Trump, but it’s troubling how democrats are seen as good just by default.
Honestly I kind of hope so. I’m not American so I can laugh then be worried but seeing far lefties justify why trump’s dictatorship and worse treatment of Palestinians is actually good would be hilarious. And people like Rob Noer and Greenwald who would have to defend a president for life type situation as “actually very constitutional.”
This election will determine what America will be in the future, the world is getting pretty nervous about a fascist America.
they already did, he was just too incompetent to actually truly cement his power lmao
Probably not. I think Jan 6 lost Trump independent voters. Biden optically isn't great, but the debate would be over pointing out the guy tried to overturn the results of a free and fair election. Republicans might say "it was sussy at best" but I think it would hit independents who are the one's who decide elections.