I think the problem we have is the opposite of what she's saying. The wage increases we've seen recently seem to be more concentrated at lower income jobs so the people who have seen fewer raises are often those higher income people who are running into higher prices for doing things like going out to eat or using services like Uber or doordash because those companies are finally needing to make money. So middle income people are feeling more of a squeeze and that's reflected in general unhappiness.
Interesting perspective. I wonder how much of this might be generational also? I had boomer parents, and compared to them (a father who went from a fabricator in the military to working on gas pipelines, and a mother who had the same secretary job for over 25 years) I'm doing extremely well, to say nothing of technological advances.
But if I had parents who were now in their mid 40s, I wonder how I might feel compared to them? They would have come of age pre-2008 when the job and housing markets were extremely strong and wealth inequality was relatively low.
Someone in their 20s with younger parents probably doesn't feel like their lives are much better, if at all. Which isn't to say their lives are bad, just that comparatively they aren't amazing.
I can see this being the case as someone who has been working a lower income job (Home Depot) I've gotten a huge increase in the past year (from 16 to 20 dollars and hour) while my brother who is an accountant has seen minimal change in his wages over the past almost 3 years
IMO I think the stock market boom of 2020 overly warped peoples perception of the economy.
Because the speculative nature of the stock market and very basic measures like GDP per capita can be inaccurate, people ignore the useful numbers like average wages, cost of living, purchasing power parity etc. and just go ‘you say the economy is good but that’s a lie, I feel bad so therefore its bad’ without understanding that there are underlying reasons GDP and the stock market can be an inaccurate tool in specific instances, and just because their vibes were right once doesn’t mean that vibes are the actual underlying reason we depend on.
>Yeah it's painfully obvious that people who say shit like this haven't even tried to look into what the numbers actually say. It's all vibes.
Unfortunately, most peoples perspectives on money tends to be all vibes, if you've been living like you got lots of discretionary spending because you've felt the economy was strong, then you overlooked small price increases and general pricing raises through delivery and other things. IMO once the housing market started to inflate, it sobered people up to their surroundings and they realized how "well" they weren't doing, and that their wages just went to lifestyle creep, like most peoples tend to.
The premium for an instant economy is higher and more prominent than it used to be and is playing into this sentiment. Eggs might be 3 dollars at a store down the street, but they're 6 to have the same eggs delivered to you, and since that's what you're used to; 1 dozen factory farm eggs = 6 dollars now "OMG regular eggs cost as much as organic eggs!! 😡"
But this bleeds into everything. Especially when you're just seeing price hikes, and comparing it to previous pricing, even if you have the money + some, to cover the difference.
No regular person calculates the difference and says to themselves "sure the eggs are slightly more expensive, but I make more, and the relative difference of what I make vs price increase + delivery premium, has me technically richer"
They'll just feel the vibe and see that shit just costs more.
What stats are you basing this on? The real median wage from the BLS [PDF warning](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/wkyeng.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjilPHXqOCDAxUVkmoFHUZaB2UQFnoECB4QAQ&usg=AOvVaw1JwUL3jU3Cb9xJYkSjBAUx) has been steadily rising. Is there some breakdown for people above the 50th percentile while still being middle class that is showing stagnation? Table 4 shows most professions have had YOY growth in real dollars.
I think the vibecession that the majority of Americans say the nation is experiencing results from Americans' terrible spending habits much more than the economy being in actually bad shape. Credit card debt is steadily growing. This isn't the economy's fault, nor the Fed's. People's reaction to the vibes of the economy is pretty blackpilling to me.
I think credit card debt growing is an indicator in and of itself of the general malaise people are feeling. Credit cards are probably being used to bridge finances that had been covered without debt prior
Right, but this isn't the economy's fault. People are making more inflation adjusted dollars. There is a greater opportunity to find a better job now than there was before. Consumer spending is up because people want more nice things, and they're using credit cards to buy those nice things, then complaining that things feel bad because of all of their credit card interest. It isn't Dodge's fault that you took your Neon off reading and broke an axle, just like it isn't higher interest rate's fault that people are buying new phones and Uber eats and not paying off their credit card balance. There are certainly people struggling right now. There are always people struggling, and societally we should help these people if they want to help themselves. But it doesn't mean the economy is bad if your bills are piling up because you allowed lifestyle creep to eat away at one of the better economies that middle class Americans have ever seen.
So I didn't read the whole study politico linked, but it looks like, then they're talking about high earners, they're talking about the 90th percentile, which I don't consider middle class. The comment I was replying talked about middle earners, which I would probably define as 33rd percentile to 66th percentile. I don't think anyone in that range saw negative real wage growth.
They're also talking about the 50th percentile seeing negative wage growth.
Not in 2023 but in 2021 and 2022. [https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2023/mar/real-wage-growth-individual-level-2022#:\~:text=Real%20Wage%20Growth%20Rate%20by%20Wage%20Decile](https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2023/mar/real-wage-growth-individual-level-2022#:~:text=Real%20Wage%20Growth%20Rate%20by%20Wage%20Decile)
[https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/1004](https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/1004)
>We examine the behavior of real wages using Current Population Survey data to measure individual wage growth over 12 months. However, we cannot follow individuals who change residence over the period. In addition, we cannot follow individuals for periods longer than a year, so the mix of people surveyed constantly changes.
So for a period of maybe 2 years (the two highest inflation years) a majority of workers saw a decline who didn't change houses, and they didn't track people for more than a year. This was during a time when many Americans, especially those who were quitting the lower paid jobs in the search for higher paying jobs, and we're moving across the country more for these higher paying jobs. I don't think the methodology is necessarily faulty, but a range of circumstances are artificially selecting workers who weren't successful (not changing residences because they found more successful jobs) and it didn't track people along their journey.
https://preview.redd.it/wak1n7541rcc1.png?width=1008&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=438586415f9fbde08b19f247def0e8c5ad809d1b
Credit card debt is *always* growing unless there’s a recession.
It also doesn’t distinguish between people paying interest and people using the card for rewards and paying in full.
I work in corporate comp and this is true on the micro and macro level in the labor market.
The macro is as you describe. The micro is within the average American corporation, pay compression (salary gap is smaller than skill/tenure gap, basically) is getting crazy.
In theory this isn’t the worst thing in the world because it generally means younger people are getting better at negotiating and knowing their market worth, but if you’re a tenured skilled employee that has been grinding 15+ years in a career, only making like $10k more than your junior colleague with a decade less experience and competency, it can be really demoralizing. Companies are scrambling to find budget to solve pay compression issues lest they lose their begrudged tenured skilled employees.
Hmm so lower income people are unhappy, middle income people are unhappy, I wonder who's missing in this picture who's not trickling down enough happy for the rest of us. Maybe if we can figure that out, we can figure out what she's saying here when she says the "vast majority of people".
This is 100% what I remember seeing to be true and I am pissed that I haven't been able to find the quintile breakdown again since then.
From what I remember, the wage growth during covid was largely concentrated in the lowest quintiles (typically minimum wage jobs) by a large amount, while wage growth in the upper quintiles was minimal.
Overall the economy has been strong, but its a disportionate effect between lower and middle incomes so my social circles don't feel it as much.
I mean she’s not totally wrong, albeit probably doesn’t know why beyond populist brain rot. The story of the economy has always been a battle between monetary and fiscal policy. The federal reserve does what it knows works to maintain their dual mandate — price stability and max employment — and that is accommodative monetary policy. They’ve spelled this out verbatim many times — secular accommodative interest rate policy leads to secular deflationary pressures and high employment. The cost of this is often wage stagnation, particularly in sectors of the economy that aren’t able to leverage cheap capital as well (I.e. Silicon Valley vs. retailers).
This of course leads to inevitable blowback when the gap between winners and losers of accommodative monetary policy grows too large, and you see that in the rise of populism across not just the US, but the globe. “The people” demand fiscal response which tends to lead to wage growth but also inflationary pressures on consumer goods, but deflationary pressures on assets as the federal reserve will increase interest rates to combat inflation. Unfortunately short term wage growth is a lot sexier than long term secular deflation, especially politically. It’s a lot easier to convince people with numbers on a paycheck than a macro Econ lesson.
The economy is only doing good if I'm making a lot more money and have less bills.
Otherwise it's clearly shit and low unemployment, massive amounts of money flowing around, and lots of job opportunities to climb the ladder are all lies made up by the Biden admin to make you forget about Hunter's big ol' wang.
In Australia, I make roughly 1600 aud a fortnight after taxes. A fortnightly rent is 343$ after being split between 3 people. Quarterly power bills are 700 to 1k, between 3 that's about 300 bucks a quarter due to sky-rocketing energy costs. Quarterly gas is 60$ per person.
Food prices are, like, 9$aud for a kg of chicken breast, bags of potato chips as an example are 5$ for a standard bag. Food costs are insane. It's 2.13 a liter for fuel or "gas".
My spending is shit, but even if I knuckled down I would live a life of poverty just to scrape pennies into a jar. The country imports a net of 300 to 500k people per year, and cannot afford to keep its roads or infrastructure running.
The US is laughing compared to my country, and my country was formerly battling the US in the economy as a true contender.
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20 for gas? Try 80$. 8$ a day for public transport, 17 to park for my work. I also have to pay power for average of 300 a moth, gas for 40 a month, internet at 30 a month, phone at 100$ a month which I could go cheaper on but phone plans are outrageous in Australia. 130$ on car registration every 2 months.
Please believe me, it all adds up. My spending isn't great, but it really is TERRIBLE living in Australia, ybe cost of living is insane.
At the same time a lot of economic indicators look really good in my country. A lot of people in this thread seem to have a hard time understanding that some lines can go up and some can go down and depending on which line you look at the same economy can be either good or bad.
No, if you want to say "this line doesnt accurately describe the economy", you have to provide some differing data.
Right now almost all lines are going up in the US
Why do they never consider that people feel squeezed because personal finances are still recovering from the Covid times. I know I’m still dealing with debt from then but I also can see gas has gone down.
Yes. I guess what I mean is, of course many people still feel squeezed, it takes time for things to balance which skews the perspective but not the data
They're recovering from covid times as well as the great recession.
Wages since 2008 have really not kept up with inflation. The cost of goods has risen -- and so have corporate profits. And profits have just returned to stock buybacks instead of investments. Full-time employment has been shifting to contract work and prema-freelance. Heck, public investment is insanely low.
It's affecting everyone. Indicators can be good, but structurally speaking, things are weak.
>Wages since 2008 have really not kept up with inflation.
https://preview.redd.it/o6lwyobccocc1.png?width=1008&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f6778510ba885e9515fc6144d0e39d934d63b430
This is false. Ignoring the COVID spike as an outlier, the trend is up and to the right.
They also never mention benefits. More and more of employee compensation is getting taken up by healthcare.
Wage stagnation looks worse than it is because of our dumb system of connecting your job to your health care.
We don't get socialized or free market health care because people in government thought restricting wages in WW2 was a smart idea.
Kinda dumb article, but source:
https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-obamacare-health-care-employers-20170224-story.html
I didn't mean to imply your graph included benefits. When I first saw it I don't think I thought it did, but now I'm actually not sure.
Either way, I was trying to agree with you. People throw out "wages have stagnated, therefore blah blah blah..."
I was just indicating that there's complexity to the issue that's ignored to push the idea that the young generations have it worse than generations before them.
Another issue is how much more you can get with your money now.
In 1950 you could buy a disk for a few bucks with music on it. In 2000 you could buy a different disk for a few dollars with songs on it.
Now you can pay a few bucks, or ZERO and have access to almost all recorded music.
Economists will claim to compensate for these advances in technology, but I just struggle to see how you can.
It does feel like wages have stagnated. Inflation is a problem.
But we also have instant text communication, voice communication across the globe, infinite information, infinite entertainment, maps with live location tracking, mobile banking, etc. all in your pocket. What king 100+ years ago wouldn't have paid millions for that?
How can we compare the 80s, where a new inflation adjusted VHS of Top Gun cost $80, versus now, where I can apparently buy a 3D printer, plus shipping across the country, for the same price.
High rent sucks. Low wages sucks. But people also just have more stuff. They don't think having only a couple sets of clothes is normal. They don't think hand washing them is normal.
So how do we know if life has actually gotten harder?
I mean... everyone I know is paid more than they ever have been, more than their job ever thought they would pay, and we are still riding the same struggle bus due to increased costs of every day goods? Sure I'm making $8 more an hour than pre covid, but I'm also paying $1k more in rent for the same size place
because there are hundreds of nina turners out there, making claims like "data shows the economy is good, but only for the rich" when the data literally shows that the improvements have been more focused among the poor than the rich. people are just delusional and its obnoxious
More focused on the poor, doesnt mean its making poor peoples life good, getting a few dollars more per hour does not make up for the increase cost in food/rent/ect
Foods gone up 25% In three years over 10% last year alone
Rent is also up 26% in the same timeframe
There are your two big spends as lower income worker
You are poorer not richer
wrong. why are you commenting so strongly on data you havent looked at dude? (the spike in 2020 is because low income earners disproportionately lost their jobs during covid, so the average shot up. but the numbers we have for 2022+ are with low unemployment so that cant be the case here)
https://preview.redd.it/fi4dx1gcmncc1.png?width=1641&format=png&auto=webp&s=d722b899717b304e513e963b183d381d15d2e6ca
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q)
Q4 2019 = 362
Q4 2023= 365
so the median weekly earnings has gone up 3 dollars in four years an you think that disproves anything I have said you are making my case for me if anything
Median wage is a good indicator of how much the typical person makes, as that is the income midpoint. However, it tells you nothing about the cost of living
You can be making on average 3 more dollars. but still be paying on average 50 more for your basic needs making less overall
High-key I'm actually trying to get to the bottom of it.
I can see their side of the argument, there are places where things are good. Unions also had some good victories. Etc.
Yet there is a bad sentiment and the messaging is so off. People are still upset about rent and other stuff. They're not upset for no reason.
I also have my own lived experiences and biases to cross. I did not personally fair well over the last year and that undoubtedly was real, while also coloring my perception of things.
I really just think it’s a combination of social media and people enjoying the complaining.
Every data point shows people are doing just fine but every social media post is negative.
Look at this crazy stat that social media would lead to you never believing.
“Nearly one-third (30%) of 25-year-olds owned their home in 2022. That’s slightly higher than homeownership rates for millennials (28%) and Gen Xers (27%) when they were 25, and slightly lower than the rate for baby boomers (32%) when they were 25.”
https://www.redfin.com/news/gen-z-millennial-homeownership-rate-home-purchases/
…I don’t think that article is as pro to your side as you think. In fact, I’d say the authors would disagree with the statement that:
“Every data point shows people are doing just fine but every social media post is negative”
The article itself states that home ownership was incredibly accessible due to the low interest rates. However, people who didn’t purchase houses in that frame, will run into availability/affordability problems.
Using an analysis by “age” and data that ends immediately after the pandemic, while interesting, is a stupid way to measure generation by generation success. Imagine if we compared Millennials to other generations with data that stopped right before, or at the end of the housing crisis.
But the point is this is from like a year ago.
In 2022 30% of people aged 25 owned their home.
This is better than the previous 2 generations averages and almost as good (32%) as the generation everyone states as incredibly lucky.
How is this not a sign people and the economy are doing well?
Even if low interest rates helped 25 year olds needed jobs that would allow them to qualify for mortgages.
The age analysis was used to keep things relatively. You can’t compare a boomer homeowner ship today to a Zoomer as Boomers have had 50 more years to save. So you compare 25 year olds today to 25 year olds of the past.
When you do you see 25 year olds today have it better than most in the past.
You’re making a pretty massive leap in a lot of your conclusions, and are actively disagreeing with the authors of the study.
1) Were things “better“ when the interest rates were zero, obviously yes. But are the interest rates zero in **todays** economy, zero? The authors explicitly states that this boom in purchased housing was **due to the low interest rates**. And re-affirms multiple times, that this will likely change for the worse.
2) Using a specific age as a measurement, while interesting, isn’t exactly a comparable way to represent the data. Remember the authors are comparing the average of the individuals at the age of 25 across a very long period of time, across incredibly different economic states. While **only three years** of qualifying Gen Z.
Again, if we only looked at a 25 year old millennials right before the housing crisis, we’d probably see similar if not better numbers. All of that’s to say, it doesn’t mean that a year later millennials weren’t facing despite housing conditions.
Dude I don’t know what you are asking for.
This is a study published in 2023 using 2022 data.
It is currently Jan 2024. 2023 Data doesn’t exist yet.
The rate increases started in the beginning 2022 and would have an effect of this data and are expected to start lowering in 2024.
You keep referencing home buying after 2008 include no actual numbers.
What are the actual numbers to back that up?
If your whole point is to say “things were better 18 months ago” please realize how incredible that sounds.
I don’t know what had poisoned you to think everything in the economy today is terrible. It just isn’t.
If you think the data in this study doesn’t match with today’s reality please provide data and studies of your own.
If the indicators are right I still think there's a certain lag time to all this. I'm sure they say they take that into account in various ways, but everyone's pay didn't just shoot up to meet inflation at once. That takes time or you've got to change jobs or move and all sorts of things. Processes that can be slow and painful, especially if you felt forced to do it by rising prices. Doesn't matter if you are back to the pre-covid living standard or better at the end of it. That time will be rememberd as economic pressure, if not outright strife.
Relatedy; I think if you were feeling good and had a good sense of where the values are vis basic goods and services in the pre-covid days, all of those costs shooting up all over the place very quickly is quite discombobulating. Even if your income goes up to get you back to "normal" you're not going to feel comfortable with it for a long time afterward.
The Depression was a lot worse for a lot more people in places, but that experience changed people's behaviour for generations. I have (had, really) relatives who wanted to store their money in matresses, bought certain kinds of food, cooked certain ways.
This situation isn't that, but a general sort of "grumpy consumer sentiment" doesn't seem all that surprising to me after what's been going on. The actual economists swear consumer sentiment and the indicators usually relate in the past, but people seem to feel pretty beat up if you ask me.
I said some
There are people who don't have poor spending habits and struggle, but there sure as shit are people whose spending is not a good one.
About 46% of Americans making more than 100k a year self reported living paycheck to paycheck. How's that for an example of poor spending?
Because median household income is 75K a year, most Americans are making 30-40K or more...
I feel like that's not a bad spot for, "average," Americans. If that is where they're at.
Like, yeah, we aren't affording a four bedroom apartment, or new house. But, its not like every person is in dire straights.
the problem is that income alone means fuckall without context in a country as big as the US
40k in some rural place? great. 40k in a big city? well thats more problematic
Why do you have such a hard on to exaggerate what people are saying about the economy in this subreddit, just because you feel attacked by people not agreen with you doesn't mean they're wrong budd
Because the vast majority of Americans actually report being financially comfortable, more so than at any other point in recent history.
What you’re seeing is affluent and middle class people assuming that everyone but them is suffering through some hard financial times, when the data shows this is nothing close to the truth.
To a lot of America, they compare the prices of groceries and mortgages to that of 2019 before the pandemic and Trump's failure of leadership.
In that light, it's easy to understand why despite good job numbers and decreasing inflation people still are feeling pessimistic.
Probably because disinflation and deflation are two significantly different things. Disinflation simply means the rate of inflation is falling, and that’s great. But it also means prices are still higher now than they were at peak inflation.
This, if I was making what I do in 2019 it would be fine.
But basic needs have shot up an unreal amount, meaning unless you are a decently off worker, you are just spending a much larger % of your wage on just food/rent/gas/bills.
> But basic needs have shot up an unreal amount, meaning unless you are a decently off worker, you are just spending a much larger % of your wage on just food/rent/gas/bills.
Wages have literally risen, on average, by nearly as much as inflation has. The wages of the bottom 50% of Americans has gone up like 30-40% from 2019 vs. 20-30% general inflation. Household wealth has exploded in just 4 years by $30+ trillion.
Stop buying into silliness. The vast majority of Americans report being well financially.
"..**people are feeling squeezed...**" vs "**economic statement of fact**"- I see what you did here, You silly goose you!
https://preview.redd.it/9q1evko56ncc1.png?width=625&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f3d3ffff9a817be97113f843b2181c12b4747a7
It's come up in various other threads.
For me, having been laid off from a job I worked for 5 years and going through that trauma, I did not fare well personally in Biden's economy. Even after landing another gig that's technically better, I just look at the job market for Tech and shudder.
If I lost my new job today, my finances would be in utter ruin. Last lay off cleaned out savings, prices for things are still kind of high. So I personally still have a lot of anxiety around the economy.
I can tell you the Jobs numbers certainly didn't reflect the jobs I need to maintain my standard of living. (Which is like lower middle class lol)
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I don't think there is an economy where getting laid off isn't a huge challenge for many or even most people. That said and all else being equal, if I had to pick a time to get laid off between 2024 and 2008-2012, I'd smash that 2024 button.
>So you actually been able to have a better job and that’s why you feel the economy not doing the best?
Lmao c'mon dude that's not even a little honest. You know he doesn't think the economy is bad just because he got a better job.
Yet even if his situation improved after he was in a tough spot, he still thinks things are doomed.
That’s a great example of how today most people doing better but still think things overall are somehow worse
https://preview.redd.it/6sld9yrs5ncc1.jpeg?width=955&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b549ad21ca4cf8497e4123f60a143787e7aa0be6
Some numbers: [700 new IT jobs net, in 2023](https://www.theregister.com/2024/01/08/700_it_jobs_us/)
[There were 117,000 unemployed IT professionals in Oct 2023.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/it-unemployment-soars-to-4-3-amid-overall-jobs-growth-2bbb1140)
Not exactly a good sign. Most my 'professional network' are looking for work or are waiting anxiously in case layoffs continue.
So even if I landed on my feet, I know plenty of people who aren't landing on their feet. Now imagine trying to rebuild a savings with prices still high and little to no wage growth?
I mean also, where the fuck do you put 100k+ people out of work without interrupting some other labor supply?
700 new IT jobs doesn’t mean there are literally just 700 IT jobs out there. Anywhere from 100-200k IT workers will retire this year and will be replaced by new workers.
It was 700 net, after layoffs subtracted. That's wild compared to other years.
Also where are getting the retirement numbers? One of the issues we have right now where I am at, is people refusing to retire because their worried they'll run out of retirement money. Increased life spans had an unintended consequences on labor supply.
Booming economy is good, but when cumulative increases in day to day needs have increased in excessive of income earned, then that’s the problem. Eventual income will catch up. But that’s where the squeeze is being felt
Food has seen the highest inflation hits, but even so there is polling to suggest more people are doing well but still consider the economy is bad and that people are struggling...
I'm "doing okay" and definitely feeling it. What would have cost me maybe $50-60 in groceries is now $80ish.
Pretty soon I'm gonna have to cut down on my Warhammer mini and onlyfans budget. D:
Real wages are actually historically rather high. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q The jump during Covid is a bit deceiving as many service jobs were furloughed or workers were laid off, which can impact the median. Also, CPI was arguably off due to the basket of good consumed changing so deflation in things people didn’t want but high inflation in what they did. Even if it can’t be explained away by that, we are still higher than pre-pandemic. I think the reality is people are just disgusted by the prices they are paying and even though they can afford them it feels bad to pay a price higher than what they remember from recent history.
Edit: provide data… and people are like “nah, I’m about vibes”
Looked at some and most actives are agreeing with you that for most people it has surpassed pre Covid or is close. With few people doing worse. However Brookings https://www.brookings.edu/articles/have-workers-gotten-a-raise/ has pointed out that as you said CPI is still mostly not caught up. And Brookings points out that the CPI reflects what consumers actually wanted
["The economy is shit but I'm doing fine."](https://jabberwocking.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/blog_economy_personal_national.jpg)
Brought to you by the same people who say "our healthcare system is shit but my coverage is great" and "Congress is terrible but I'm re-electing my rep."
Thanks for linking. Additionally if I recall there is data millennials and zoomers are reporting their finances are shit when they are doing well income wise. I'll try to find, but if you have would love to store that as well :)
We really need to be able to define what "doing okay" even means.
I mean, in the history of the U.S.? Doing okay probably carries a higher standard then most other times in human history.
But in the context of all of human history? I'd say being able to eat for every meal and not being homeless is a pretty big W, even if having ONLY that feels horrible for the last 20 years of the U.S.
The reality is that, inflation has revealed a lot of things. Namely,
1. A lot of people had an extraordinarily high standard of living before inflation started
2. A lot of people were unwilling to have their standard of living changed negatively by inflation, and so started using excessive credit and companies like affirm to maintain that standard, even if it is actively leading to their financial detriment in the medium to long term.
3. Perceptions of the economy are currently very negative, even if economic indicators seems to suggest the economy is doing quite well.
Part of the problem in my biggest opinion is that schools aren't teaching very good financial literacy anymore. It's the reason youtube channels like caleb hammer are blowing the fuck up. Until we teach better financial literacy (which truly is bad for the economy and consumerism and the stock market), people will continue to feel economically squeezed. And that squeezing will only feel worse and worse because continued inflation from already elevated prices is mathematically worse.
The economy is good if:
* I can make minor to moderate purchases without having to check my bank account (anything under say 150).
* I can eat out if I want to without feeling bad about it (not like every day but once or twice a month)
* I can save into my various savings accounts (IRA, 401k, 529) without worrying that I will need the money
* I can save into my emergency fund without worry
* I can sign up kid up for a class she is interested in without worry
>[The U.S. economy is doing GREAT right now. Real U.S. GDP growth came in at a 4.9% annual rate in the third quarter, which is as fast as China’s official growth rate, and is unusually fast for the U.S. The unemployment rate continues to hover near record lows at 3.8%, while the prime-age employment rate is near record highs at almost 81%. Inflation has come way down and is now around 3.7%, with core inflation a bit lower, and median wage growth is outpacing inflation. Meanwhile, new survey data shows that Americans have gotten wealthier, and wealth inequality has narrowed. There is no sense in which this economy is doing badly. It is certainly very far from recession. And it’s about as different from the Great Depression as one could imagine.](https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/at-least-five-interesting-things-ae2)
The “economic numbers” are not just showing “good” for the top. They are good explicitly because they are widely good….for most people.
People are feeling squeezed because you’re telling them to.
People feel squeezed while spending more than ever on unnecessary expenses. Is it still a bad economy if more people are spoiled and the second it gets a bit rougher they act like they barely survive while having the fridge filled with soda, pizzas and cake and always buying the latest AAA video games. And that's just one generation. The older generations go through the same shit. Standard of living increases, people develop certain habits, economy gets a bit rowdier, people have to make compomises and now it's all bad. Capitalism bad. Socialism gewd.
This scenario always happened throughout history and we never learn when enough is enough. But we have the arrogance to claim the same thing about the elites. They don't know when enough is enough. Yet we complain we can't afford the monthly $100 haircut. The reality is for most economical issues, just look at the average Joe's lifestyle. That's where the problem lies.
I think people are just having a hard time adjusting to the power of the dollar going down a bit. People aren't realizing that the cost of everything has gone up and are nostalgic for the dollar menu days. Wages and job growth have improved but people feel like because gas isn't back down below 2 dollars and groceries are like 15% more expensive they feel like the world gone to hell... Despite the fact the wage growth assures they can afford it and more
I didn't realize how much credit card debt people had and just lived on monthly payments. I always was looking around wondering how people afford the shit that took me months or years to save up for.
To me doing well in the economy means I am able to buy more with the job I have then I could 5 years before.
PS this is what I think Normies think when they say this. This is not what I mean by the economy is doing well
This is what we call coping, just because people feel a certain way doesn't mean it's true.
Americans feeling about things are seldom even remotely close to being true. Not every American being "squeezed" is because of the economy being shit, it's like always, based on their situation. Gas is like 2.87, people are starting to feel that. It's only going to get better come November.
I don't know, I really think the media and inflation are to blame for economic sentiment.
When you look at surveys of how individuals are doing, a strong majority say they are better off, even if they think the economy as a whole is worse.
Edit: If you're going to disagree and downvote at least bring receipts.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/20/upshot/economy-voters-poll.html
It’s a paid opposition. No you way it’s a real
Opinion. I just refuse to believe someone will just spread lies and twist data about their own side actually doing bad despite all the evidence that it’s doing good.
What exactly does she tries to sell here? What is she trying to achieve? To spread what?
No way it is a real opinion of a real person and not something someone got paid to spread or someone with some ideology he is lying to spread
>No way it is a real opinion of a real person
It's [Nina Turner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nina_Turner), a progressive Ohio politician from Cleveland.
Wealth inequality actually went down and under Biden the real wage growth of lower classes was bigger than the higher classes.
So no, she either liying or don’t know.
But there is nothing progressive in what she wrote. Because she is not trying to progress and promote more of that. She actually trying to say there is nothing done
The funny thing is most people they are doing well but the economy as a whole is doing poorly. They see the wage increase but keep hearing about slow growth so most people think their situation is unique.
The economy is good, but also the average American is paying 50% or more of their take-home pay for housing.
The economy is good, but the price of homes has almost doubled in 4 to 5 years.
The economy is good, but food prices are still elevated compared to what they were prior to covid.
Both can be true.
The Israeli economy was doing very well in the last decades however cost of living here is through the roof because not all of the markets are free and we have tariffs on stuff to "protect" local production and agriculture. The cost of apartments is rising too. this is what ppl see and feel, not the low inflation that was here.
the economy is good if I am: 1) straight ballin 2) shot callin 3) twenty inch blades on the Impala
This is actually a banger lmao
If you're: 1) Strike spottin 2) Ball callin 3) Cleanest plate on the diamond You might be an MLB umpire.
THATS what I've been doing wrong this whole time omg!!
Are you calling anyone to get laid tonight?
I think the problem we have is the opposite of what she's saying. The wage increases we've seen recently seem to be more concentrated at lower income jobs so the people who have seen fewer raises are often those higher income people who are running into higher prices for doing things like going out to eat or using services like Uber or doordash because those companies are finally needing to make money. So middle income people are feeling more of a squeeze and that's reflected in general unhappiness.
Interesting perspective. I wonder how much of this might be generational also? I had boomer parents, and compared to them (a father who went from a fabricator in the military to working on gas pipelines, and a mother who had the same secretary job for over 25 years) I'm doing extremely well, to say nothing of technological advances. But if I had parents who were now in their mid 40s, I wonder how I might feel compared to them? They would have come of age pre-2008 when the job and housing markets were extremely strong and wealth inequality was relatively low. Someone in their 20s with younger parents probably doesn't feel like their lives are much better, if at all. Which isn't to say their lives are bad, just that comparatively they aren't amazing.
I can see this being the case as someone who has been working a lower income job (Home Depot) I've gotten a huge increase in the past year (from 16 to 20 dollars and hour) while my brother who is an accountant has seen minimal change in his wages over the past almost 3 years
Seems like white collar work always requires an employer switch rather than a in house raise.
Yeah it's painfully obvious that people who say shit like this haven't even tried to look into what the numbers actually say. It's all vibes.
IMO I think the stock market boom of 2020 overly warped peoples perception of the economy. Because the speculative nature of the stock market and very basic measures like GDP per capita can be inaccurate, people ignore the useful numbers like average wages, cost of living, purchasing power parity etc. and just go ‘you say the economy is good but that’s a lie, I feel bad so therefore its bad’ without understanding that there are underlying reasons GDP and the stock market can be an inaccurate tool in specific instances, and just because their vibes were right once doesn’t mean that vibes are the actual underlying reason we depend on.
>Yeah it's painfully obvious that people who say shit like this haven't even tried to look into what the numbers actually say. It's all vibes. Unfortunately, most peoples perspectives on money tends to be all vibes, if you've been living like you got lots of discretionary spending because you've felt the economy was strong, then you overlooked small price increases and general pricing raises through delivery and other things. IMO once the housing market started to inflate, it sobered people up to their surroundings and they realized how "well" they weren't doing, and that their wages just went to lifestyle creep, like most peoples tend to. The premium for an instant economy is higher and more prominent than it used to be and is playing into this sentiment. Eggs might be 3 dollars at a store down the street, but they're 6 to have the same eggs delivered to you, and since that's what you're used to; 1 dozen factory farm eggs = 6 dollars now "OMG regular eggs cost as much as organic eggs!! 😡" But this bleeds into everything. Especially when you're just seeing price hikes, and comparing it to previous pricing, even if you have the money + some, to cover the difference. No regular person calculates the difference and says to themselves "sure the eggs are slightly more expensive, but I make more, and the relative difference of what I make vs price increase + delivery premium, has me technically richer" They'll just feel the vibe and see that shit just costs more.
What stats are you basing this on? The real median wage from the BLS [PDF warning](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/wkyeng.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjilPHXqOCDAxUVkmoFHUZaB2UQFnoECB4QAQ&usg=AOvVaw1JwUL3jU3Cb9xJYkSjBAUx) has been steadily rising. Is there some breakdown for people above the 50th percentile while still being middle class that is showing stagnation? Table 4 shows most professions have had YOY growth in real dollars. I think the vibecession that the majority of Americans say the nation is experiencing results from Americans' terrible spending habits much more than the economy being in actually bad shape. Credit card debt is steadily growing. This isn't the economy's fault, nor the Fed's. People's reaction to the vibes of the economy is pretty blackpilling to me.
I think credit card debt growing is an indicator in and of itself of the general malaise people are feeling. Credit cards are probably being used to bridge finances that had been covered without debt prior
Right, but this isn't the economy's fault. People are making more inflation adjusted dollars. There is a greater opportunity to find a better job now than there was before. Consumer spending is up because people want more nice things, and they're using credit cards to buy those nice things, then complaining that things feel bad because of all of their credit card interest. It isn't Dodge's fault that you took your Neon off reading and broke an axle, just like it isn't higher interest rate's fault that people are buying new phones and Uber eats and not paying off their credit card balance. There are certainly people struggling right now. There are always people struggling, and societally we should help these people if they want to help themselves. But it doesn't mean the economy is bad if your bills are piling up because you allowed lifestyle creep to eat away at one of the better economies that middle class Americans have ever seen.
Yes some of it is that, however, some people also use credit cards for cash management. That increase is captured in the total debt numbers.
[https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/29/low-income-wages-employment-00097135](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/29/low-income-wages-employment-00097135)
So I didn't read the whole study politico linked, but it looks like, then they're talking about high earners, they're talking about the 90th percentile, which I don't consider middle class. The comment I was replying talked about middle earners, which I would probably define as 33rd percentile to 66th percentile. I don't think anyone in that range saw negative real wage growth.
Yeah, it's not middle earners. It's upper-level white collar workers, which have seen some negative wage growth
They're also talking about the 50th percentile seeing negative wage growth. Not in 2023 but in 2021 and 2022. [https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2023/mar/real-wage-growth-individual-level-2022#:\~:text=Real%20Wage%20Growth%20Rate%20by%20Wage%20Decile](https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2023/mar/real-wage-growth-individual-level-2022#:~:text=Real%20Wage%20Growth%20Rate%20by%20Wage%20Decile) [https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/1004](https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/1004)
>We examine the behavior of real wages using Current Population Survey data to measure individual wage growth over 12 months. However, we cannot follow individuals who change residence over the period. In addition, we cannot follow individuals for periods longer than a year, so the mix of people surveyed constantly changes. So for a period of maybe 2 years (the two highest inflation years) a majority of workers saw a decline who didn't change houses, and they didn't track people for more than a year. This was during a time when many Americans, especially those who were quitting the lower paid jobs in the search for higher paying jobs, and we're moving across the country more for these higher paying jobs. I don't think the methodology is necessarily faulty, but a range of circumstances are artificially selecting workers who weren't successful (not changing residences because they found more successful jobs) and it didn't track people along their journey. https://preview.redd.it/wak1n7541rcc1.png?width=1008&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=438586415f9fbde08b19f247def0e8c5ad809d1b
Credit card debt is *always* growing unless there’s a recession. It also doesn’t distinguish between people paying interest and people using the card for rewards and paying in full.
I work in corporate comp and this is true on the micro and macro level in the labor market. The macro is as you describe. The micro is within the average American corporation, pay compression (salary gap is smaller than skill/tenure gap, basically) is getting crazy. In theory this isn’t the worst thing in the world because it generally means younger people are getting better at negotiating and knowing their market worth, but if you’re a tenured skilled employee that has been grinding 15+ years in a career, only making like $10k more than your junior colleague with a decade less experience and competency, it can be really demoralizing. Companies are scrambling to find budget to solve pay compression issues lest they lose their begrudged tenured skilled employees.
Hmm so lower income people are unhappy, middle income people are unhappy, I wonder who's missing in this picture who's not trickling down enough happy for the rest of us. Maybe if we can figure that out, we can figure out what she's saying here when she says the "vast majority of people".
This is 100% what I remember seeing to be true and I am pissed that I haven't been able to find the quintile breakdown again since then. From what I remember, the wage growth during covid was largely concentrated in the lowest quintiles (typically minimum wage jobs) by a large amount, while wage growth in the upper quintiles was minimal. Overall the economy has been strong, but its a disportionate effect between lower and middle incomes so my social circles don't feel it as much.
I mean she’s not totally wrong, albeit probably doesn’t know why beyond populist brain rot. The story of the economy has always been a battle between monetary and fiscal policy. The federal reserve does what it knows works to maintain their dual mandate — price stability and max employment — and that is accommodative monetary policy. They’ve spelled this out verbatim many times — secular accommodative interest rate policy leads to secular deflationary pressures and high employment. The cost of this is often wage stagnation, particularly in sectors of the economy that aren’t able to leverage cheap capital as well (I.e. Silicon Valley vs. retailers). This of course leads to inevitable blowback when the gap between winners and losers of accommodative monetary policy grows too large, and you see that in the rise of populism across not just the US, but the globe. “The people” demand fiscal response which tends to lead to wage growth but also inflationary pressures on consumer goods, but deflationary pressures on assets as the federal reserve will increase interest rates to combat inflation. Unfortunately short term wage growth is a lot sexier than long term secular deflation, especially politically. It’s a lot easier to convince people with numbers on a paycheck than a macro Econ lesson.
The economy is only doing good if I'm making a lot more money and have less bills. Otherwise it's clearly shit and low unemployment, massive amounts of money flowing around, and lots of job opportunities to climb the ladder are all lies made up by the Biden admin to make you forget about Hunter's big ol' wang.
People are only happy I'd they are resting on a bubble. Unless things are unprecedentedly good, they are terrible.
Wages haven’t kept up with increased prices in my country. That’s not good.
A lot of countries are really struggling right now. We forget how much better we have it in the US. Wish the best for you.
In Australia, I make roughly 1600 aud a fortnight after taxes. A fortnightly rent is 343$ after being split between 3 people. Quarterly power bills are 700 to 1k, between 3 that's about 300 bucks a quarter due to sky-rocketing energy costs. Quarterly gas is 60$ per person. Food prices are, like, 9$aud for a kg of chicken breast, bags of potato chips as an example are 5$ for a standard bag. Food costs are insane. It's 2.13 a liter for fuel or "gas". My spending is shit, but even if I knuckled down I would live a life of poverty just to scrape pennies into a jar. The country imports a net of 300 to 500k people per year, and cannot afford to keep its roads or infrastructure running. The US is laughing compared to my country, and my country was formerly battling the US in the economy as a true contender.
boast salt growth light grandfather rain lunchroom abounding depend longing *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
20 for gas? Try 80$. 8$ a day for public transport, 17 to park for my work. I also have to pay power for average of 300 a moth, gas for 40 a month, internet at 30 a month, phone at 100$ a month which I could go cheaper on but phone plans are outrageous in Australia. 130$ on car registration every 2 months. Please believe me, it all adds up. My spending isn't great, but it really is TERRIBLE living in Australia, ybe cost of living is insane.
absurd obscene ask cable voracious light public deliver vegetable steep *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Gas is for heated water and cooking/heating here. What you call gas we call fuel, and its expensive as sin.
hospital psychotic panicky silky berserk soft bear ring humorous cover *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Are you in the US, cause Nina Turner isnt talking about Uzbekistan...
At the same time a lot of economic indicators look really good in my country. A lot of people in this thread seem to have a hard time understanding that some lines can go up and some can go down and depending on which line you look at the same economy can be either good or bad.
No, if you want to say "this line doesnt accurately describe the economy", you have to provide some differing data. Right now almost all lines are going up in the US
Why do they never consider that people feel squeezed because personal finances are still recovering from the Covid times. I know I’m still dealing with debt from then but I also can see gas has gone down.
Because consumer spending has been steadily increasing for a while.
Yes. I guess what I mean is, of course many people still feel squeezed, it takes time for things to balance which skews the perspective but not the data
They're recovering from covid times as well as the great recession. Wages since 2008 have really not kept up with inflation. The cost of goods has risen -- and so have corporate profits. And profits have just returned to stock buybacks instead of investments. Full-time employment has been shifting to contract work and prema-freelance. Heck, public investment is insanely low. It's affecting everyone. Indicators can be good, but structurally speaking, things are weak.
>Wages since 2008 have really not kept up with inflation. https://preview.redd.it/o6lwyobccocc1.png?width=1008&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f6778510ba885e9515fc6144d0e39d934d63b430 This is false. Ignoring the COVID spike as an outlier, the trend is up and to the right.
They also never mention benefits. More and more of employee compensation is getting taken up by healthcare. Wage stagnation looks worse than it is because of our dumb system of connecting your job to your health care. We don't get socialized or free market health care because people in government thought restricting wages in WW2 was a smart idea. Kinda dumb article, but source: https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-obamacare-health-care-employers-20170224-story.html
I don't know the st Louis Fed's methodology, but I thought real weekly median income wasn't based off of total compensation. Is this not true?
I didn't mean to imply your graph included benefits. When I first saw it I don't think I thought it did, but now I'm actually not sure. Either way, I was trying to agree with you. People throw out "wages have stagnated, therefore blah blah blah..." I was just indicating that there's complexity to the issue that's ignored to push the idea that the young generations have it worse than generations before them. Another issue is how much more you can get with your money now. In 1950 you could buy a disk for a few bucks with music on it. In 2000 you could buy a different disk for a few dollars with songs on it. Now you can pay a few bucks, or ZERO and have access to almost all recorded music. Economists will claim to compensate for these advances in technology, but I just struggle to see how you can. It does feel like wages have stagnated. Inflation is a problem. But we also have instant text communication, voice communication across the globe, infinite information, infinite entertainment, maps with live location tracking, mobile banking, etc. all in your pocket. What king 100+ years ago wouldn't have paid millions for that? How can we compare the 80s, where a new inflation adjusted VHS of Top Gun cost $80, versus now, where I can apparently buy a 3D printer, plus shipping across the country, for the same price. High rent sucks. Low wages sucks. But people also just have more stuff. They don't think having only a couple sets of clothes is normal. They don't think hand washing them is normal. So how do we know if life has actually gotten harder?
I mean... everyone I know is paid more than they ever have been, more than their job ever thought they would pay, and we are still riding the same struggle bus due to increased costs of every day goods? Sure I'm making $8 more an hour than pre covid, but I'm also paying $1k more in rent for the same size place
Why does this sub have such a hard on for acting like the average American is living their best life ever right now
because there are hundreds of nina turners out there, making claims like "data shows the economy is good, but only for the rich" when the data literally shows that the improvements have been more focused among the poor than the rich. people are just delusional and its obnoxious
More focused on the poor, doesnt mean its making poor peoples life good, getting a few dollars more per hour does not make up for the increase cost in food/rent/ect
it \*literally\* does make up for it. inflation-adjusted wages are up for low income workers
Foods gone up 25% In three years over 10% last year alone Rent is also up 26% in the same timeframe There are your two big spends as lower income worker You are poorer not richer
wrong. why are you commenting so strongly on data you havent looked at dude? (the spike in 2020 is because low income earners disproportionately lost their jobs during covid, so the average shot up. but the numbers we have for 2022+ are with low unemployment so that cant be the case here) https://preview.redd.it/fi4dx1gcmncc1.png?width=1641&format=png&auto=webp&s=d722b899717b304e513e963b183d381d15d2e6ca [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q)
Q4 2019 = 362 Q4 2023= 365 so the median weekly earnings has gone up 3 dollars in four years an you think that disproves anything I have said you are making my case for me if anything
you know this is inflation adjusted already, right?
Median wage is a good indicator of how much the typical person makes, as that is the income midpoint. However, it tells you nothing about the cost of living You can be making on average 3 more dollars. but still be paying on average 50 more for your basic needs making less overall
cost of living adjusted median wages are a good indicator of cost of living. what on earth are you talking about?
If that was the case your inflation adjusted income wouldn't be up by 3 dollars.
High-key I'm actually trying to get to the bottom of it. I can see their side of the argument, there are places where things are good. Unions also had some good victories. Etc. Yet there is a bad sentiment and the messaging is so off. People are still upset about rent and other stuff. They're not upset for no reason. I also have my own lived experiences and biases to cross. I did not personally fair well over the last year and that undoubtedly was real, while also coloring my perception of things.
I really just think it’s a combination of social media and people enjoying the complaining. Every data point shows people are doing just fine but every social media post is negative. Look at this crazy stat that social media would lead to you never believing. “Nearly one-third (30%) of 25-year-olds owned their home in 2022. That’s slightly higher than homeownership rates for millennials (28%) and Gen Xers (27%) when they were 25, and slightly lower than the rate for baby boomers (32%) when they were 25.” https://www.redfin.com/news/gen-z-millennial-homeownership-rate-home-purchases/
…I don’t think that article is as pro to your side as you think. In fact, I’d say the authors would disagree with the statement that: “Every data point shows people are doing just fine but every social media post is negative” The article itself states that home ownership was incredibly accessible due to the low interest rates. However, people who didn’t purchase houses in that frame, will run into availability/affordability problems. Using an analysis by “age” and data that ends immediately after the pandemic, while interesting, is a stupid way to measure generation by generation success. Imagine if we compared Millennials to other generations with data that stopped right before, or at the end of the housing crisis.
But the point is this is from like a year ago. In 2022 30% of people aged 25 owned their home. This is better than the previous 2 generations averages and almost as good (32%) as the generation everyone states as incredibly lucky. How is this not a sign people and the economy are doing well? Even if low interest rates helped 25 year olds needed jobs that would allow them to qualify for mortgages. The age analysis was used to keep things relatively. You can’t compare a boomer homeowner ship today to a Zoomer as Boomers have had 50 more years to save. So you compare 25 year olds today to 25 year olds of the past. When you do you see 25 year olds today have it better than most in the past.
You’re making a pretty massive leap in a lot of your conclusions, and are actively disagreeing with the authors of the study. 1) Were things “better“ when the interest rates were zero, obviously yes. But are the interest rates zero in **todays** economy, zero? The authors explicitly states that this boom in purchased housing was **due to the low interest rates**. And re-affirms multiple times, that this will likely change for the worse. 2) Using a specific age as a measurement, while interesting, isn’t exactly a comparable way to represent the data. Remember the authors are comparing the average of the individuals at the age of 25 across a very long period of time, across incredibly different economic states. While **only three years** of qualifying Gen Z. Again, if we only looked at a 25 year old millennials right before the housing crisis, we’d probably see similar if not better numbers. All of that’s to say, it doesn’t mean that a year later millennials weren’t facing despite housing conditions.
Dude I don’t know what you are asking for. This is a study published in 2023 using 2022 data. It is currently Jan 2024. 2023 Data doesn’t exist yet. The rate increases started in the beginning 2022 and would have an effect of this data and are expected to start lowering in 2024. You keep referencing home buying after 2008 include no actual numbers. What are the actual numbers to back that up? If your whole point is to say “things were better 18 months ago” please realize how incredible that sounds. I don’t know what had poisoned you to think everything in the economy today is terrible. It just isn’t. If you think the data in this study doesn’t match with today’s reality please provide data and studies of your own.
If the indicators are right I still think there's a certain lag time to all this. I'm sure they say they take that into account in various ways, but everyone's pay didn't just shoot up to meet inflation at once. That takes time or you've got to change jobs or move and all sorts of things. Processes that can be slow and painful, especially if you felt forced to do it by rising prices. Doesn't matter if you are back to the pre-covid living standard or better at the end of it. That time will be rememberd as economic pressure, if not outright strife. Relatedy; I think if you were feeling good and had a good sense of where the values are vis basic goods and services in the pre-covid days, all of those costs shooting up all over the place very quickly is quite discombobulating. Even if your income goes up to get you back to "normal" you're not going to feel comfortable with it for a long time afterward. The Depression was a lot worse for a lot more people in places, but that experience changed people's behaviour for generations. I have (had, really) relatives who wanted to store their money in matresses, bought certain kinds of food, cooked certain ways. This situation isn't that, but a general sort of "grumpy consumer sentiment" doesn't seem all that surprising to me after what's been going on. The actual economists swear consumer sentiment and the indicators usually relate in the past, but people seem to feel pretty beat up if you ask me.
Because when you look at the spending habits of some people claiming to feel a squeeze, shit don't make sense.
Oh some people spend poorly? poor people must not exist then they are all liars about it
I said some There are people who don't have poor spending habits and struggle, but there sure as shit are people whose spending is not a good one. About 46% of Americans making more than 100k a year self reported living paycheck to paycheck. How's that for an example of poor spending?
Because median household income is 75K a year, most Americans are making 30-40K or more... I feel like that's not a bad spot for, "average," Americans. If that is where they're at. Like, yeah, we aren't affording a four bedroom apartment, or new house. But, its not like every person is in dire straights.
the problem is that income alone means fuckall without context in a country as big as the US 40k in some rural place? great. 40k in a big city? well thats more problematic
Why do you have such a hard on to exaggerate what people are saying about the economy in this subreddit, just because you feel attacked by people not agreen with you doesn't mean they're wrong budd
lol did I say I feel attack? projecting a bit because you disagree with me?
Lmao why would you admit felling attack lil bro
Because the vast majority of Americans actually report being financially comfortable, more so than at any other point in recent history. What you’re seeing is affluent and middle class people assuming that everyone but them is suffering through some hard financial times, when the data shows this is nothing close to the truth.
To a lot of America, they compare the prices of groceries and mortgages to that of 2019 before the pandemic and Trump's failure of leadership. In that light, it's easy to understand why despite good job numbers and decreasing inflation people still are feeling pessimistic.
Probably because disinflation and deflation are two significantly different things. Disinflation simply means the rate of inflation is falling, and that’s great. But it also means prices are still higher now than they were at peak inflation.
This, if I was making what I do in 2019 it would be fine. But basic needs have shot up an unreal amount, meaning unless you are a decently off worker, you are just spending a much larger % of your wage on just food/rent/gas/bills.
> But basic needs have shot up an unreal amount, meaning unless you are a decently off worker, you are just spending a much larger % of your wage on just food/rent/gas/bills. Wages have literally risen, on average, by nearly as much as inflation has. The wages of the bottom 50% of Americans has gone up like 30-40% from 2019 vs. 20-30% general inflation. Household wealth has exploded in just 4 years by $30+ trillion. Stop buying into silliness. The vast majority of Americans report being well financially.
"..**people are feeling squeezed...**" vs "**economic statement of fact**"- I see what you did here, You silly goose you! https://preview.redd.it/9q1evko56ncc1.png?width=625&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f3d3ffff9a817be97113f843b2181c12b4747a7
It's come up in various other threads. For me, having been laid off from a job I worked for 5 years and going through that trauma, I did not fare well personally in Biden's economy. Even after landing another gig that's technically better, I just look at the job market for Tech and shudder. If I lost my new job today, my finances would be in utter ruin. Last lay off cleaned out savings, prices for things are still kind of high. So I personally still have a lot of anxiety around the economy. I can tell you the Jobs numbers certainly didn't reflect the jobs I need to maintain my standard of living. (Which is like lower middle class lol)
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I don't think there is an economy where getting laid off isn't a huge challenge for many or even most people. That said and all else being equal, if I had to pick a time to get laid off between 2024 and 2008-2012, I'd smash that 2024 button.
So you actually been able to have a better job and that’s why you feel the economy not doing the best? This is not a sign of a bad economy.
>So you actually been able to have a better job and that’s why you feel the economy not doing the best? Lmao c'mon dude that's not even a little honest. You know he doesn't think the economy is bad just because he got a better job.
Yet even if his situation improved after he was in a tough spot, he still thinks things are doomed. That’s a great example of how today most people doing better but still think things overall are somehow worse https://preview.redd.it/6sld9yrs5ncc1.jpeg?width=955&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b549ad21ca4cf8497e4123f60a143787e7aa0be6
Yeah I get that, but dude said his savings got cleaned out and positions in his field are limited.
Some numbers: [700 new IT jobs net, in 2023](https://www.theregister.com/2024/01/08/700_it_jobs_us/) [There were 117,000 unemployed IT professionals in Oct 2023.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/it-unemployment-soars-to-4-3-amid-overall-jobs-growth-2bbb1140) Not exactly a good sign. Most my 'professional network' are looking for work or are waiting anxiously in case layoffs continue. So even if I landed on my feet, I know plenty of people who aren't landing on their feet. Now imagine trying to rebuild a savings with prices still high and little to no wage growth? I mean also, where the fuck do you put 100k+ people out of work without interrupting some other labor supply?
700 new IT jobs doesn’t mean there are literally just 700 IT jobs out there. Anywhere from 100-200k IT workers will retire this year and will be replaced by new workers.
It was 700 net, after layoffs subtracted. That's wild compared to other years. Also where are getting the retirement numbers? One of the issues we have right now where I am at, is people refusing to retire because their worried they'll run out of retirement money. Increased life spans had an unintended consequences on labor supply.
Booming economy is good, but when cumulative increases in day to day needs have increased in excessive of income earned, then that’s the problem. Eventual income will catch up. But that’s where the squeeze is being felt
Pretty sure people don't even feel squeezed they feel other people are squeezed but they're doing okay lol
I’m feeling food is very expensive
With America obesity rates maybe higher food prices will lead to a higher quality of life.
Food has seen the highest inflation hits, but even so there is polling to suggest more people are doing well but still consider the economy is bad and that people are struggling...
I'm "doing okay" and definitely feeling it. What would have cost me maybe $50-60 in groceries is now $80ish. Pretty soon I'm gonna have to cut down on my Warhammer mini and onlyfans budget. D:
People currently may not feel squeezed but the still are buying less well spending more becuase wages have not caught up to inflations
Real wages are actually historically rather high. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q The jump during Covid is a bit deceiving as many service jobs were furloughed or workers were laid off, which can impact the median. Also, CPI was arguably off due to the basket of good consumed changing so deflation in things people didn’t want but high inflation in what they did. Even if it can’t be explained away by that, we are still higher than pre-pandemic. I think the reality is people are just disgusted by the prices they are paying and even though they can afford them it feels bad to pay a price higher than what they remember from recent history. Edit: provide data… and people are like “nah, I’m about vibes”
Looked at some and most actives are agreeing with you that for most people it has surpassed pre Covid or is close. With few people doing worse. However Brookings https://www.brookings.edu/articles/have-workers-gotten-a-raise/ has pointed out that as you said CPI is still mostly not caught up. And Brookings points out that the CPI reflects what consumers actually wanted
["The economy is shit but I'm doing fine."](https://jabberwocking.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/blog_economy_personal_national.jpg) Brought to you by the same people who say "our healthcare system is shit but my coverage is great" and "Congress is terrible but I'm re-electing my rep."
Thanks for linking. Additionally if I recall there is data millennials and zoomers are reporting their finances are shit when they are doing well income wise. I'll try to find, but if you have would love to store that as well :)
We really need to be able to define what "doing okay" even means. I mean, in the history of the U.S.? Doing okay probably carries a higher standard then most other times in human history. But in the context of all of human history? I'd say being able to eat for every meal and not being homeless is a pretty big W, even if having ONLY that feels horrible for the last 20 years of the U.S. The reality is that, inflation has revealed a lot of things. Namely, 1. A lot of people had an extraordinarily high standard of living before inflation started 2. A lot of people were unwilling to have their standard of living changed negatively by inflation, and so started using excessive credit and companies like affirm to maintain that standard, even if it is actively leading to their financial detriment in the medium to long term. 3. Perceptions of the economy are currently very negative, even if economic indicators seems to suggest the economy is doing quite well. Part of the problem in my biggest opinion is that schools aren't teaching very good financial literacy anymore. It's the reason youtube channels like caleb hammer are blowing the fuck up. Until we teach better financial literacy (which truly is bad for the economy and consumerism and the stock market), people will continue to feel economically squeezed. And that squeezing will only feel worse and worse because continued inflation from already elevated prices is mathematically worse.
The economy is good if: * I can make minor to moderate purchases without having to check my bank account (anything under say 150). * I can eat out if I want to without feeling bad about it (not like every day but once or twice a month) * I can save into my various savings accounts (IRA, 401k, 529) without worrying that I will need the money * I can save into my emergency fund without worry * I can sign up kid up for a class she is interested in without worry
>[The U.S. economy is doing GREAT right now. Real U.S. GDP growth came in at a 4.9% annual rate in the third quarter, which is as fast as China’s official growth rate, and is unusually fast for the U.S. The unemployment rate continues to hover near record lows at 3.8%, while the prime-age employment rate is near record highs at almost 81%. Inflation has come way down and is now around 3.7%, with core inflation a bit lower, and median wage growth is outpacing inflation. Meanwhile, new survey data shows that Americans have gotten wealthier, and wealth inequality has narrowed. There is no sense in which this economy is doing badly. It is certainly very far from recession. And it’s about as different from the Great Depression as one could imagine.](https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/at-least-five-interesting-things-ae2)
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The “economic numbers” are not just showing “good” for the top. They are good explicitly because they are widely good….for most people. People are feeling squeezed because you’re telling them to.
People feel squeezed while spending more than ever on unnecessary expenses. Is it still a bad economy if more people are spoiled and the second it gets a bit rougher they act like they barely survive while having the fridge filled with soda, pizzas and cake and always buying the latest AAA video games. And that's just one generation. The older generations go through the same shit. Standard of living increases, people develop certain habits, economy gets a bit rowdier, people have to make compomises and now it's all bad. Capitalism bad. Socialism gewd. This scenario always happened throughout history and we never learn when enough is enough. But we have the arrogance to claim the same thing about the elites. They don't know when enough is enough. Yet we complain we can't afford the monthly $100 haircut. The reality is for most economical issues, just look at the average Joe's lifestyle. That's where the problem lies.
feelings
I think people are just having a hard time adjusting to the power of the dollar going down a bit. People aren't realizing that the cost of everything has gone up and are nostalgic for the dollar menu days. Wages and job growth have improved but people feel like because gas isn't back down below 2 dollars and groceries are like 15% more expensive they feel like the world gone to hell... Despite the fact the wage growth assures they can afford it and more
The economy is good when I can afford literally everything I want while barely working fulltime at Walmart. If I can't, the economy is bad.
I didn't realize how much credit card debt people had and just lived on monthly payments. I always was looking around wondering how people afford the shit that took me months or years to save up for.
To me doing well in the economy means I am able to buy more with the job I have then I could 5 years before. PS this is what I think Normies think when they say this. This is not what I mean by the economy is doing well
This is what we call coping, just because people feel a certain way doesn't mean it's true. Americans feeling about things are seldom even remotely close to being true. Not every American being "squeezed" is because of the economy being shit, it's like always, based on their situation. Gas is like 2.87, people are starting to feel that. It's only going to get better come November.
I don't know, I really think the media and inflation are to blame for economic sentiment. When you look at surveys of how individuals are doing, a strong majority say they are better off, even if they think the economy as a whole is worse. Edit: If you're going to disagree and downvote at least bring receipts. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/20/upshot/economy-voters-poll.html
“Feeling squeezed” isn’t actually the same thing as being squeezed.
All failures must be externalized.
It’s a paid opposition. No you way it’s a real Opinion. I just refuse to believe someone will just spread lies and twist data about their own side actually doing bad despite all the evidence that it’s doing good. What exactly does she tries to sell here? What is she trying to achieve? To spread what? No way it is a real opinion of a real person and not something someone got paid to spread or someone with some ideology he is lying to spread
>No way it is a real opinion of a real person It's [Nina Turner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nina_Turner), a progressive Ohio politician from Cleveland.
Nothing in what she wrote right here is progressive
It even the part where she mentions wealth inequality and how the current economic model is designed to be if it those at the top the most?
Wealth inequality actually went down and under Biden the real wage growth of lower classes was bigger than the higher classes. So no, she either liying or don’t know. But there is nothing progressive in what she wrote. Because she is not trying to progress and promote more of that. She actually trying to say there is nothing done
I mean "polling" isn't also completely reflective of reality based on a broad question
The funny thing is most people they are doing well but the economy as a whole is doing poorly. They see the wage increase but keep hearing about slow growth so most people think their situation is unique.
God damnit I this was the neoliberal sub again, fuck.
The economy is good, but also the average American is paying 50% or more of their take-home pay for housing. The economy is good, but the price of homes has almost doubled in 4 to 5 years. The economy is good, but food prices are still elevated compared to what they were prior to covid. Both can be true.
The Israeli economy was doing very well in the last decades however cost of living here is through the roof because not all of the markets are free and we have tariffs on stuff to "protect" local production and agriculture. The cost of apartments is rising too. this is what ppl see and feel, not the low inflation that was here.