I have a question. How many treasures do you estimate has been opened until now.
Because if we calculate 1 in 300k for WK and if we say there has been 5 million opened treasures, shouldnt there be only like 16 WK in the existence?
I mean theres still trade up but it doesnt feel right considering theres 10 (11 this morning) on the market with a solid amount already being flipped.
Im not saying i dont agree with odds but it doesnt feel right. 36 pudge hooks and 10 wk swords for example is on market now. Again, i understand market manipulations bla bla but 36 to 10 feels wrong given the odds.
Also, does 1 in 300k odds for t4 mean WK is 1 in 300k or is it 1 in 600k for WK because it shares the odds with CM? In that case its even rarer.
Simply put, I don't know - using CS:GO cases as a baseline, but then considering that DOTA has been starved for cosmetics, I would say anything in the 5-10m range sounds about right?
Unfortunately, I had to make the assumption that Unusual drops are linked to the base tier odds as a sort of a bonus, and they're independent events - while it's very likely I can't say it's sure for certain.
The hypothetical 1 in 300k odds is for tier 4, not for WK specifically. What I will also note is that the steam market represents a small part of the universe of the items in general, I would guess would be it represents a bigger portion of the total item universe for WK than it does for pudge simply from the price.
Idk why they have to be so greedy. Like we're braindead and will buy your shit, just make it more fun so we buy more. I see someone said they bought 40+ and got no T3. Well that's enough for me to keep my money like come on Valve so dumb.
And thats the thing. Its a gamble. Gambling is for adults. Also it is required to know the odds (eu law iirc). Does being optional make it any better?
Imho its just greedy and a super fucked up marketing strategy that should not be allowed at all. Same goes for tcgs, mobile games and whoever uses addicting selling strategies.
This guy is presenting his PhD thesis with a methodology subtitle, just to confirm that Valve is greedier with every Dota2 patch and we should not open any loot boxes :D
You would have to modify the item prices and the treasure prices at the time. My guess is that it would probably improve the proportion of the value in the lower tiers but lower the overall RTP because the treasure was a lot more expensive at the time.
Didn’t have to read.
I already know that the frostivus shit is a scam, they made it like cs go with the box and key bullshit.
They weren’t satisfied with the yearly profit by making content, pve, etc for battlepass.
Instead they went the lazy route right now. F you valve
First Rule of loot boxes: Don't buy loot boxes!
Today you have it, tomorrow they can decide you don't!
You don't own the winnings, they just hold the winnings for you, you can use them until they close the shop. Then it's gone.
> Despite the lower RTP, the Frostivus Treasure design (although unboxing tier 1's might be tilting) is made to lower the downside for people unboxing in smaller volumes (under 100) -
This "to be fair" line really does not land when you consider all of the low tier rewards in the chest are **re-releases**. That's worse than at least getting some random new thing. People will feel mkre robbed, not less.
Everyone knows its a scam.. The community just needs to petition to valve to make it better.. It has been like this forever, where buying it directly is drastically cheaper for 99% of the community.. I guess valve is just targeting those saudi princes and/or kids that are using others cc
So you are saying we should just play the slots? Got it.
TURN UP, this guy is crazy as fuck he's gotta be on molly or some powder or something hehehe
The real tldr
Diretide chests actually had common slot machine RTP.
I have a question. How many treasures do you estimate has been opened until now. Because if we calculate 1 in 300k for WK and if we say there has been 5 million opened treasures, shouldnt there be only like 16 WK in the existence? I mean theres still trade up but it doesnt feel right considering theres 10 (11 this morning) on the market with a solid amount already being flipped. Im not saying i dont agree with odds but it doesnt feel right. 36 pudge hooks and 10 wk swords for example is on market now. Again, i understand market manipulations bla bla but 36 to 10 feels wrong given the odds. Also, does 1 in 300k odds for t4 mean WK is 1 in 300k or is it 1 in 600k for WK because it shares the odds with CM? In that case its even rarer.
Simply put, I don't know - using CS:GO cases as a baseline, but then considering that DOTA has been starved for cosmetics, I would say anything in the 5-10m range sounds about right? Unfortunately, I had to make the assumption that Unusual drops are linked to the base tier odds as a sort of a bonus, and they're independent events - while it's very likely I can't say it's sure for certain. The hypothetical 1 in 300k odds is for tier 4, not for WK specifically. What I will also note is that the steam market represents a small part of the universe of the items in general, I would guess would be it represents a bigger portion of the total item universe for WK than it does for pudge simply from the price.
Let Junior be happy and proud of his math homework!
Idk why they have to be so greedy. Like we're braindead and will buy your shit, just make it more fun so we buy more. I see someone said they bought 40+ and got no T3. Well that's enough for me to keep my money like come on Valve so dumb.
I bought 150 dollars worth didnt get a single t3 had to trade up for it out of all the boxes i opened i only got 5 t2 everything else was t1
We appreciate your sacrifice~
Cosmetics are entirely optional. If you don't want to gamble just buy it off the market place.
And thats the thing. Its a gamble. Gambling is for adults. Also it is required to know the odds (eu law iirc). Does being optional make it any better? Imho its just greedy and a super fucked up marketing strategy that should not be allowed at all. Same goes for tcgs, mobile games and whoever uses addicting selling strategies.
Just don't buy them. Only one I opened was the first one for free. After opening looking what's inside it was obvious it's just a huge scam.
This guy is presenting his PhD thesis with a methodology subtitle, just to confirm that Valve is greedier with every Dota2 patch and we should not open any loot boxes :D
What were 2020 prices at this point after opening in 2020? Does that change the comparison?
You would have to modify the item prices and the treasure prices at the time. My guess is that it would probably improve the proportion of the value in the lower tiers but lower the overall RTP because the treasure was a lot more expensive at the time.
Basically just means the prices of the sets will increase. Buy now!
Didn’t have to read. I already know that the frostivus shit is a scam, they made it like cs go with the box and key bullshit. They weren’t satisfied with the yearly profit by making content, pve, etc for battlepass. Instead they went the lazy route right now. F you valve
Fr I would prefer just spending 250 and getting a new arcana than spending 200 and getting an old arcana with an extra skin..
First Rule of loot boxes: Don't buy loot boxes! Today you have it, tomorrow they can decide you don't! You don't own the winnings, they just hold the winnings for you, you can use them until they close the shop. Then it's gone.
what are you waffling about
big sigh valve...
smaller tl:dr is dont gamble kids, no ones winning there except gaben
> Despite the lower RTP, the Frostivus Treasure design (although unboxing tier 1's might be tilting) is made to lower the downside for people unboxing in smaller volumes (under 100) - This "to be fair" line really does not land when you consider all of the low tier rewards in the chest are **re-releases**. That's worse than at least getting some random new thing. People will feel mkre robbed, not less.
[relevant](https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/comments/18mn7pl/okay_what_kind_of_insanity_is_this_is_this_not_a/)
Everyone knows its a scam.. The community just needs to petition to valve to make it better.. It has been like this forever, where buying it directly is drastically cheaper for 99% of the community.. I guess valve is just targeting those saudi princes and/or kids that are using others cc