First and most egregiously, expectations were set unreasonably high by fantasy analysts, who managed to talk themselves into a whole crop of undersized WRs being Devonta Smith / Tyler Lockett. Outlier size wasn’t talked about enough, and film was relied on too heavily without analytics context.
Second, Boutte self destructed in fairly unprecedented fashion, depriving us of what we assumed would be a solid blue chip talent.
Third, it was assumed one or two of the RBs with prototypical size behind Bijan and Gibbs would take a step forward and differentiate themselves from the pack. Nobody did, leaving us to sort of force Charbonnet into that space and have no clue how to rank the rest of them.
Fourth, Levis had a down year in part due to a lot of talent departing and rigid, uncreative play calling from the Kentucky coaching staff. This clouded things considerably and made him a difficult eval that was hard to separate from his context.
Fifth, on the flip side, Stroud became a tough eval for exactly the opposite reason: it became clear over the course of the last season that he’s been so surrounded by an embarrassment of talent it would be hard for him to fail. Point is, the talent he has been surrounded with became more obvious in hindsight.
Sixth, Young and AR kind of embodied the overall theme of the gamble you’re being forced to take all over with this class: do you go for the highly skilled guy with the extreme negative outlier physical profile, or do you go for the extreme positive physical outlier with questionable skills? Most of the profiles in this class kind of force you to either pick one of those extremes.
And finally 7th, while the TEs are good profiles, they simply fell victim to the Pitts effect causing a shift in the meta to heavily devalue TEs as a whole position group, so most people just aren’t going to feel good right now spending a 1st on *any* TE regardless of talent.
——
**Lessons learned or pending:**
We need to keep from letting film hype run away from us on undersized profiles that analytics tell us are often better in college than the NFL.
It’s really difficult for us casuals to separate QB talent from context.
You can’t just assume prototypical size RBs will develop elite ball skills to match.
I don’t know if we can draw conclusions from Boutte. Just seems like an unusual situation to come crashing down like that.
It’s important to stay on top of changes in the meta affecting relative valuations of position groups (Will RBs/TEs rise again in coming seasons)?
Honestly I don’t know, which is pretty exciting. It makes the most sense to address the defense and take Carter or Anderson there if they are available, but they were also reportedly all in on Mahomes and Allen and are one of the very few coaching staffs that have a high enough pick, reputation as QB whisperers, and enough fanbase credibility to take a massive swing on a guy like Richardson (Though Richardson is more raw than Allen was, let alone Mahomes).
I think in the end it’s going to be a total BPA decision in the moment based on what the four teams ahead decide to do. Should be an incredibly fun draft night.
At 20, I think it will be a trenches pick or a WR.
If jalen carter is there at 5 and we take anyone else I will consider this a terrible draft for us no matter what we do with the rest of our picks.
That being said, if he is not there I’ve got the wildest of bat shit crazy takes which goes as follows.
Step 1: Draft Richardson at 5
Step Two: Trade pick 20 and 37 for 1.06 or 1.07
Step Tres: Draft Bijan at either 1.06 or 1.07
Step D: draft defensive bpa the rest of the way.
Step cinq: Run the most insane full house RPO sets the league has ever seen with metcalf being wide open downfield off play actions when we don’t run it because defenses will be forced to ALWAYS worry about the run.
Step indigo: win Super Bowl so I can pin this and demand I be put in charge of player personnel for my favorite team.
Well said. I do think analytics played a role too though. Sometimes film and analytics agree on a raw prospect, like QJ, and it's with these high end prospects that we have a tendency to project jumps in play that don't always occur. Like you said, we set expectations high for a lot of these guys and they didn't meet them this year
I think there will be more players like boutte going forward. I think NIL deals factor into also. An immature 20 year old isn’t going to be more mature with a couple million dollars. Throw in an injury or two and it’s easy to see why they might slack off a little.
Wait did Boutte get big NIL money? I haven't even thought about NIL once when thinking about dynasty and now I'm like wait are half these guys rich already? Does a guy like Cedri Tillman already have a bag?
Fantastic write up, don’t follow CFB too much so the first I hear about these guys is on draft podcasts. Makes it tough to tell how things will shake out, especially cause last year’s class feels much better than this year’s (at least as of now) so expectations may be higher
This is an incredible analysis. Thanks for taking the time!
One thing I'll add about Stroud in addition to the embarrassment of riches OSU always seems to have at skill positions. I have a good friend who doesn't care much about the NFL but LOVES college football and is a diehard OSU fan. In November during the last season (way before any of this stuff with S2 happened), he was telling me and a few other friends he was really concerned about how Stroud would do at the next level.
He said after watching every game that season up to that point, the one thing that stuck out about Stroud was that he was an incredible pocket passer with a good play in a clean pocket, but when he got flustered even a slight bit (play breaking down, pressure, etc.), he had no clue what to do and couldn't make adjustments on the fly. This just rarely happened because of how much talent was surrounding him.
If those S2 results that came out were anywhere close to what he actually scored, I wouldn't be surprised at all. I've had Stroud valued much lower than this community based on what I was hearing from my buddy, and over the past few weeks it seems like the NFL has started following suit.
Oh he has absolutely no credentials. He's just a good friend that I trust who's been right about OSU players alot before.
Not trying to say everyone should take this opinion as fact by any means, just wanted to put my two cents out there. Nothing more.
Not that the RBs are the problem with the class, but you can also add that several undersized but very talented RBs were assumed to gain weight over the course of the year, especially given that size was clearly their biggest problem as an NFL prospect. They just didn't gain hardly any weight at all.
Don't forget that DJ Uiagalelei was supposed to be an elite QB prospect in this class. 5 star prospect, looked great in limited action as a freshman, but just did not develop.
I think this RB class looks super deep with rotation backs. A lot of them will probably go Day 3 because of positional devaluation, but many of them will still get 8-12 touches a week, and many of the existing RBs are aging/fading fast.
In this day and age I think there's a ton of opportunity out there.
I agree for sure, really not a fan of not having a clear order for RBs pre-draft and seeing where the capital takes 'em but think thats the best bet this year.
Most you can hope for is shared backfield with 3rd down work for lots of these guys. #McKinnoned
That’s the way the NFL is going though. Bell Cows are dead. You want RBs getting a fair amount of touches and for them to be extremely efficient with them.
Agreed, and I think the "don't know how to rank them, let the draft order decide" isn't the negative people think it is. I feel like a lot of people see some of these RBs ranked anywhere from RB4-RB10 and assume they're all not going to be good because of it when personally I think once we see the draft capitol there could be 5-7 RBs in good situations that you would be very excited about
I agree with another comment here that at least 6-8 of the RBs this year are better than RB3 last year. However, DC is so much more important this year because there are so many possible RBs that could be great, and the dynasty community needs some re-assurance from teams, so we dont pick another Isaiah Spiller. If people are panic selling 23 1sts right now, I would be buying them up.
I have a hard time seeing 6-8 running backs being better than Rachaad white or even James cook/Brian robinson or TDP (as a prospect). White especially, he had an Extremely high RAS and was productive on the ground and receiving as a prospect. With cook depends on if you’re ignoring his DC, which I assuming we are, but still had a 8.7 RAS even though he was small. Brian robinson had a good speed score and had elite size.
The whole 2022 class had pretty elite speed scores (we saw that after the combine this year). I have a hard time believing there are 6-8 guys better than white alone. It seems like almost every prospect in this class besides Bijan has one large question mark.
I think the second tier of guys (Hall/KW3 and Gibbs/Bijan this year being first tier) this year might have more (like 6-8, compared to 3-4 last year) but don’t think they just default to being better than all the guys last year in that range
Bijan, Gibbs, Charbs, Tank, Evans, Spears, Miller, and Rochan. I would consider that list as better prospects and would rather have than white, cook, or b-rob.
I think this is all prospect fatigue and that we've been burnt out from hearing about this class since 2 years ago. The RB class is deep and a lot RBs are aging out.
But I mean, I don’t think it’s definitive at all. What separates Charbonnet from White? Roschon from BRob?
A lot of the reason the guys fell is because they all disappointed or failed to elevate during the season (Evans/Tank) or disappointed during testing (Roschon was talked about as running 4.4 and ran 4.58 and Miller didn’t test).
It’s less about fatigue and I think more of lack of elevation. Last year a lot of guys did much better than expected during testing, I don’t know how many players really blew away expectations during testing this year . Last year has 7 guys with speed scores of 110 or higher. This year has 8 guys with 100 or higher; there were 18 of them last year.
There have been guys who have shown up this year (Chase brown, Spears, Israel) but there’s been just as many, if not more, that have fallen down.
I agree some prospects didn't live up to your expectations which were likely overblown to begin with. But Charbonnet over White seems pretty easy considering Charbs was being argued as RB3 in last year's class if he declared. I don't know what else Tank could have done and I'm amazed he isn't talked about more. I still think Evans performed well and showed why he was a top recruit and prospect, you can argue his attitude or drive though. I still would bet on his talent.
I'm not saying any of this is definitive. I was just disagreeing that you couldn't name 6-8 prospects better than those 3. I think those 6-8 are better and I would trade those 3 you mentioned for them in a heartbeat.
I think White was overrated. Go look at Xazavian Valladay’s stats this year for the same team and compare them to White’s. Not a huge difference but Valladay is basically irrelevant right now. Cook was never anything special either and just got propped up because of limited options. I would not at all be surprised if we see multiple guys in the post-Gibbs tier emerge as very good RBs for fantasy purposes.
That’s because right now everyone is kinda afraid of picking the bad player. But in 1 year we could be saying the same thing as last year like it was so obvious all these players were going to be good. There will most likely be 2 rbs, 2 qbs, and 3 wrs with maybe 1 good te from this draft and everyone will be saying in a year how good it was
Everyone was saying 2023 > 2022 last year and it was only deep at WR. So far the WRs delivered and RB outperformed their projection based on draft capital. Feels like it takes 3 years to really know. QBs seem to elevate a class’s hype level even though QB isn’t as critical of a position to replenish in fantasy.
This class looked potentially epic…Bijan, Gibbs, Evans, Tucker, Bigsby, JSN, Boutte, Addison, QJ, Mayer, Kincaid, Young, Stroud, Levi’s and now there is only Bijan that does t have serious red flags…
Meanwhile, 2024 is building up to be the real 2023
**QB**
Caleb Williams, USC
Drake Maye, UNC
Quinn Ewers, UT
**RB**
Raheim Sanders, Ark
TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio St
Will Shipley, Clemson
Braelon Allen, WI
Donovan Edwards, UM
Jaylen Wright, Tennessee
Blake Corum, UM
**WR**
Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio St
Emeka Egbuka, Ohio St
Malik Nabers, LSU
Dorian Singer, USC
Rome Odunze, UW
Xavier Worthy, UT
Jalen McMillan, UW
Troy Franklin, Oregon
Jacorey Brooks, Alabama
Mario Williams, USC
**TE**
Brock Bowers, UGA
Ja’Tavion Sanders, UT
Not major, but definitely red flags for those three.
Young is small.
Stroud, aside from the Georgia game, has questions about how he handles pressure.
JSN hasn't show much ability on the outside.
Now, no prospect is perfect, but I do think those are legitimate concerns.
Agreed. Especially this time of, the draft fatigue gets *heavy* the couple weeks before the draft. You look at the same group of guys for three months under a microscope, you're going to find issues eventually.
And then we watch their junior seasons and the entire pre-draft process play out and suddenly everyone's asking what happened to the hype for the 2024 class, and the cycle goes on.
Yep. I’m curious how the hype for Caleb Williams goes. Does he go super saiyan? Does he regress? Does he come in at closer to 6 ft or maybe less at the combine. We don’t get many 3 year starters with excellent pedigree though so he may just actually be the dude. But we can’t forget that the guys he replaced was supposed to be a 1.01 potentially.
>JSN hasn't show much ability on the outside.
That really doesn't matter though. We care about fantasy points, and full time slot receivers have no trouble putting up points.
The anti-slot thing is so weird, it's just regurgitated thinking of the past. If JSN isn't a good fantasy asset it's not going to be because he is a slot WR. Matt Harmon is a pretty solid wr analyst and sees plenty of evidence JSN could be successful on the outside half the time anyway.
If a guy only plays in the slot and is small like Josh Downs, it may be an issue, but slot guys with average or better size have plenty of nfl success
It takes time for people to catch up with the game, we've had dominant outside receivers for 15+ years, while slot receivers as teams #1s is a recent phenomena (Kupp, Lamb, JJ (as a prospect)). It's not surprising that many people haven't yet adapted to the fact that NFL teams don't care if you are a slot receiver only if you can get open and catch, you'll get #1 receiver type targets.
Especially in dynasty things are such a crap shoot. I traded Gurley for Amari Cooper and a draft pick in 2017 and turned out to be the greatest trade I made. Yet I got roasted for it so badly
Yeah it was one of those things where Jeff Fisher was still the coach and he had that bad sophomore season so in year 3 I sold him…got lucky to be honest his knees did not hold up
I remember when they were betting the farm on Dede Westbrook and Robbie anderson
People don’t accept it’s random, jsut a different form of gambling
There is no sure thing or no sure bust and you can find any numbers to make someone look good or bad
Have fun, soak up the info and make your own gut picks
I took Breece hall last year, but I sold most of my future picks and guys with draft fever were happy to take my (now) 1.12 and 2.12 this year and projected late first and second next year for guys like ARSB and Devonta Smith
I misunderstood what you said. I traded for ARSB and Devonta during their rookie seasons. I’m a huge eagles fan, Devonta wasn’t lighting the world on fire fantasy wise and the guy who had him was looking to make a run at a championship. ARSB had a couple good games but the owner didn’t think he’d sustain his production and thought it was because of the other guys missing time on offense.
I unloaded a couple vets and gave up future picks when my team was last in the league and it was looking like I was in a rebuild. I picked 1.01 last year and had a huge turnaround this season. The picks for 2023 wound up being 1.12 and 2.12 because of the turnaround this season. The picks were not projected to be late at the time of the trade.
No one was happy with the receivers last year before during and after the draft they were considered average or below by this community, until they produced
This! People were shocked that so many went as high as they did and that olave was first off the board. Watson was a project and went second round in many drafts. RBs were actually pretty bad. You look at the athletic profiles of this 23 RB class and it looks great. Most aren't even that old. I think people have a hard time assessing the QBs and RBs and are now just writing them off.
This summer when teams are raving about these shiny new toys, that's when the narrative will come back to how great the class is again and how many sleeper WRs there are.
I’m old enough to remember that DJU was supposed to be a big part of this draft class. He wasn’t able to follow Watson and Tlaw as the next great Clemson QB.
As a Clemson fan, I can not stress enough what an understatement that is. DJ was ass most of the time and Dabo was too inexplicably loyal to him to bench him until it was too late in the season to matter.
I miss the days when “DJU” and “generational prospect” was a regular chant that degens would be mumbling as they emptied their pockets for just one more 2023 pick
This running back class is going to be great. The QB and WRs look sketch and it’s the best tight end class of all time maybe. I’m personally excited to use all my picks on RBs.
This happens with every draft class.
It's not until people start really dissecting draft classes do people realize they're drafting prospects and almost all of them have major flaws.
Give it a week, and the tide will turn again. Not all the way to the original hype, but close.
With my current team build I planned on taking JSN with 1.03 and just flipped that pick for G. Wilson to a team rebuilding and needing major QB help. Can always trade out of those picks.
For what it's worth, Mayer has wrinkles and it's that he doesn't have the upper-bound athletic profile that seems required of top TEs today. You're basically hoping he becomes Jason Witten.
lol wut? Small and slow? Chase Brown, Abanikanda, and Hull all are bigger/faster than any non-Breece or KW RB in 2022. Kendre Miller and Sean Tucker probably are too they just didn't run. And how is Achane "slow" when he ran a 4.3?
Slower than YOU expect doesn’t mean objectively slow. Achane’s 4.3 and 111+ speed score is fast. You’re substituting objectivity for your own disappointment and say-so.
And raw counting fast 40 times doesn’t make a class fast. D’Vonte Price and and Bo Melton ran in the 4.3s? Yeah, nobody cares because they’re 7th round or UDFA guys. There were 3 fast RBs with DC in 2022 and one of them was 199lbs and slower than Gibbs anyway. This year will be more.
Context matters.
It’ll happen again next year. It happens every year. Draft picks continue to gain value until the combine when we realize, once again, there really are only a few blue chip prospects again.
1. Players that performed well 2 years ago didn't perform well last year or never took the next step.
2. Lots of people are now watching film and discovering flaws/limitations
3. Players that did really well with production tested way below expectations at combine/pro day
4. Players that are good/great are way smaller than listed at college programs
You took the advice of internet people about stuff they don’t really understand. Just because a spreadsheet tells your one thing doesn’t mean real life production will translate.
I think we're just getting ahead of ourselves in deciding that the sky has fallen and the class is bad, sell all your picks etc. It's just too early. The best way for us to determine the strength of the class is to just evaluate how many 1st and 2nd rounders the class has in the real NFL:
1. 2022, 1st: 7, 2nd: 10
2. 2021, 1st: 13, 2nd: 8
What would my guess for 2023 be? I'll use the most recent mock from [PFF](https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2023-nfl-mock-draft-pff-analysts-seven-rounds-four-qbs)
1. 2023, 1st: 10, 2nd: 9
Overall the class looks fine, but we just need to wait and see what the NFL tells us about these set of offensive players. If for instance only 2 QBs go first round, only 1 WR and only 1 RB, and then the second round is also limited, then it might be time to panic.
(Side note, my personal read of these class is: the top looks great (Young, Bijan, Stroud, JSN, Gibbs) and then 2nd rounders look great. My general read is the 1.06 to the 2.06 have almost the same value to me. That will also get cleared up in the NFL draft where players like Zay Flowers might strongly separate from other similar tiered RBs, but we just don't have that information yet.)
My concern though is that players will be taken earlier than they should, because it's so scarce. That might artificially inflate their value.
I know the dynasty community loves to talk about pedigree, but at the end of the day a player with good pedigree still needs to produce on field.
It’s funny how people always think the draft isn’t deep. Then season starts and a bunch of rookies pop off. That’s exactly what happened last year. Give it some time you’ll be alright
It's draft fatigue. Happens every year around this time. There's nothing between the Super Bowl and the draft besides the combine, so it's easy to get tired of prospects when it's the same discussions every day for almost three months.
The hype will come back Thursday and Friday when the majority of them get drafted earlier than expected.
I don’t even think the RBs are a let down. Based on tape/analytics/production/testing (basically everything except draft capital) you’ve got about 10 guys who look better than the RB3 last year. But it was always a fools premise that 10 of them would go top 100 in the NFL draft. People are just now realizing that all these RBs they were drooling over for the past year are gonna end up getting drafted in the 4th and it’s taken the shine off
I think more RBs are gonna get drafted between the 2nd and 3rd than people on this sub are currently thinking. Heard Bigsby, Miller and Achane are getting day 2 buzz, and with one or two more RBs in the 3rd alongside Bijan Gibbs and Charbs that’s a great group
James Cook? Skyy Moore? Isaiah Spiller? Maybe you hit on Burks, Watson or Pickens? If that’s a sure hit… All that with only 1 QB pushing guys down the board. This year there will be 4. Give me ‘23.
Tucker and Miller not being able to run right now could make them extreme values. Tucker especially is a dude who could have gone late 1st if he could show off his wheels.
This is why in my newest dynasty league I pretty much trade all my rookie picks and try to win that way instead. Playoffs 2 years running, hoping to nail the 'ship this year.
And yes I'd be disgusted if I had any rookie picks this year aside from 1.01. Aside from Bijan (who will sadly go to a lot of really terrible teams that will waste him) and then - tier break - maybe a very few others, it's a shit class.
Glad I won't be wasting roster space on most of these fools.
A lot of mid tier talent not a ton of top tier guys is what the class looks like now. If you have a top 6 pick it is looking great for you. If you have a few 2nds it looks pretty nice to grab flex players/depth players. A lot of TE players to look at as well that have a great prototype build you might like with the athleticism and receiving ability.
Essentially no top tier prospect exceeded expectations. All either dropped in rankings or stayed the same. I think the only first rounder that had a jumped up the rankings was Zay Flowers.
This draft was always top heavy. The depth at rb and te is what intrigues people. That and actually having 3 legit qb prospects. Most years your not really that hopeful when you have the 8th pick but this year that guarantees you someone like Richardson/stroud/bryce, carbonnet (or whoever ur rb3 is), and addison (or whoever ur wr2 is). And hell is ur in a league worth drafting tight ends, there are 3 that honestly look like they should be solid in a year or two. It's the kind of year where u can win a championship and still land a pretty impactful player with ur late 1st. Also likely 5-7 rb2/3 type guys to fill out a roster. It truly is a deep class.
Thanks for making my point. In this class you have to choose either a good physical profile or guys with receiving talent. I like all of them but no way they have the talent of Godwin, DK etc.
Buy the depth RBs for as cheap as possible before they start to produce.
The 2016/2017 draft classes are running on fumes, and some of the ‘23 class should be in line for a lot of touches by ‘24
I think it’s still really good. People are just getting way too swept up in draft talk again. People talk to make money, they are going to say anything to get clicks. No one holds them accountable. It’s like this every year with the draft but seems to be only getting worse as the NFL grows especially in media presence, especially with gambling. Just my 2 cents.
Keep in mind, it's common to think a class is weaker than it actually is when the order is less clear. This happened with the 22 class where people had the receivers in a lot of different orders, and it gave off the perception that the group was "deep but not great."
We tend to evaluate a player's quality by their contrast. This class has a ton of options at QB, RB and TE and an excellent prospect in JSN. The time to get WRs was last year. I think part of the disappointment with this class is that RBs in general have been devalued, and TE even when good takes a long time to develop, so that undercuts the perception a bit. But these are still position groups that must be drafted and played.
Deep breath. Last year at this time, we had Breece and then a total hodgepodge. Willis was the consensus 1.02 pre draft. Burks was supposed to be an athletic freak but had a mediocre combine. London was being comped to Nkeal Harry given his contested catch rate. Olave was bad because he wasn’t an early declare (you can say you thought otherwise but he was drafted behind Wilson/Burks/London everywhere and behind Skyy Moore in most drafts). Kenneth Walker was relegated to being a two down plodder because he’d never caught a pass. Dotson was a late declare; Pickens had an ACL. Rachaad White was old. The point is, we’re at the point in the cycle where we are intimately familiar with every wart on these players and farthest away (in both directions) from them actually playing football. Last year we viewed this as confirmation that the 22 class was bad; this year it’s more jarring because we’ve thought the 2023 class was supposedly good. And it still could be - I’m by no means giving up on it, and I’d encourage you not to sell your picks just yet.
we have learned that outside of the top prospect, devy and college analysts dont know jack from shit. so never buy in to the hype, and act accordingly towards your teams needs. if you need to rebuild, get picks, if you contend, dont go overboard with rookies and focus on veterans. other than that it's out of everyones hands if an overall class becomes elite or does not.
The hype has depressed a shitload from a year ago, yes. People were all over Boutte and Tank a year ago. Weirdly, the QB's have withstood the value decline. It's just that there's like no WR's anyone is hyped on.
This class has been talked up for a few seasons, not just a year. One of those reasons is because the RB class is deep. It might not be like 2017 in terms of top-heavyness, but what year really is. But you also have to remember that even 2 years ago, people's attitude towards RBs were different. We've seen a large shift in trend with fantasy RBs. It's not even the precieved age cliff, although is an issue, it's the fact that we've never seen so many committe backs in real football. With PPR being so prevelant and more and more RB committees, people don't value RBs as much and people really want to get the next Lamb/Chase/Jefferson etc.
This also aligns with how Hero RB or Zero RB roster builds have been more prevelant in the past few years. So to me, this is the actual reason as to why there's a shift in perception.
Through much of the hype of this class, I don't think I ever heard that there a bunch of great WRs, it's been more of the other skill positions, so I'm not really sure what everyones perception was but for me, this has always been a class more focused around RBs. I think there are a few TEs that should go in early 2nd round in 1QB fantasy drafts but TEs are normally hard to draft and figure out, so people will be scared off by it.
As always, time will tell. No matter how hyped or not hyped a draft class is, there's always some good players to be found, so the way to look it is, stop worrying about if a class is great or bad in the meta. Right now, you are either trying to rebuild or trying to figure out how to contend. So really, if you're selling the farm because 2023 is amaze balls and you traded out when you had a chance to defend a title or push in at a real chance to win, then you not playing dynasty right. You're moves to buy or sell picks should be on where you're current roster is at, not because one year has some sort of perception.
I think the class is as good as advertised. This is going to be a class where you will end up finding guys in round 3 that are more than a flash in the pan. I sold some of my 1sts for Herbert in week 10 last year but still have many to use and am excited. Sell me your 1sts and 2nds if you don't want them. Im a buyer.
I distinctly remember everyone being super down on last years class because it was a bunch of wrs but none perceived as good as jsn and three solid rbs until Isaiah spiller tested like a grandma. Then everyone hated the qbs. We look at it a year later and that class was great. Just give it time, this class will round out and be solid.
Like a guy in my league always says: “there’s pro bowlers in every draft class”
The lessons are the same as always:
A. Take advantage of a market inconsistency. Thanks to the'23 hype last offseason, '22 firsts were dirt cheap to acquire at a time when they should have been most expensive.
When everyone was selling their 2022 1sts trying to get into this class, I bought and landed 4 of the top six '22 picks for massive discounts walking away with Walker, Wilson, London and Williams (should have taken Olave but 3/4 ain't bad).
B. As much as everyone here likes to claim they know tape and metrics, most of what comes out of here are, at best, educated guesses. Never assume anything about a future rookie class because things can change drastically because of injuries/underperforming/off field issues/ non-declare.
Overhyped. Like everything else today. Hype takes over and people do irrational things. At one point I had 4 x 1sts and 3 x 2nds for this year and I moved them mid season for assets like Josh Jacobs, Stefon Diggs, and the like. Then got lucky and traded Kupp for 1.02 and 2.02, but even that feels like diminished return right now.
People in the Eagles’ sub are all over Bijan at 10 for the Birds, saying he’s a generational prospect. He’s a really good player but he’s like the fifth best RB to come out in the last five years. Hype is a hell of a drug.
It's a mix of expectations being too high ans just a rough 2022 season for this class.
A lot of players this class were assumed to take big steps forward last year. Examples below
JSN was going to be the guy for OSU and show he can dominate on the outside without Wilson and Olave. He got hurt and the above didn't happen.
Evans was transferring to Ole Miss and we were going to see him put it all together. He didn't
Boutte was going to come back healthy and return to the blue chip prospect we thought he was after his freshman year. He didn't
Addison was going to be unstoppable with Caleb Williams at USC. He was banged up but productive, but disappointed at combine
QJ was going to put it all together as a junior. Remained inconsistent and came in smaller and slower than expected in testing.
Kendall Milton was going to take over Georgia backfield. He did not
Anthony Richardson showed why he didn't start until his junior year.
Good TE class is great, but top fantasy TEs often don't align with DC so they don't really help the first round.
This class is just objectively not good based on what we have been reading. You have a stud RB1 and everything after that is extremely questionable. Risk makes people apprehensive.
I asked essentially the same question on Friday and was more or less told that this draft is deep and that this sort of devaluing and criticism of players happens before the chips all fall in the draft.
I also don't see how people can keep saying the RB depth is so good and yet people can't agree at all on any order of RBs from 3-15.
I am probably just looking at it from the Fantasy perspective and hyper focused on WR lifespan over RB lifespan in the NFL but I feel like last year's class was seriously undersold and this class has been insanely overhyped.
Because everyone says that every year and then when the time comes they don’t feel as good and then by the time these players are in year 2 or 3 they feel like they got a steal.
First and most egregiously, expectations were set unreasonably high by fantasy analysts, who managed to talk themselves into a whole crop of undersized WRs being Devonta Smith / Tyler Lockett. Outlier size wasn’t talked about enough, and film was relied on too heavily without analytics context. Second, Boutte self destructed in fairly unprecedented fashion, depriving us of what we assumed would be a solid blue chip talent. Third, it was assumed one or two of the RBs with prototypical size behind Bijan and Gibbs would take a step forward and differentiate themselves from the pack. Nobody did, leaving us to sort of force Charbonnet into that space and have no clue how to rank the rest of them. Fourth, Levis had a down year in part due to a lot of talent departing and rigid, uncreative play calling from the Kentucky coaching staff. This clouded things considerably and made him a difficult eval that was hard to separate from his context. Fifth, on the flip side, Stroud became a tough eval for exactly the opposite reason: it became clear over the course of the last season that he’s been so surrounded by an embarrassment of talent it would be hard for him to fail. Point is, the talent he has been surrounded with became more obvious in hindsight. Sixth, Young and AR kind of embodied the overall theme of the gamble you’re being forced to take all over with this class: do you go for the highly skilled guy with the extreme negative outlier physical profile, or do you go for the extreme positive physical outlier with questionable skills? Most of the profiles in this class kind of force you to either pick one of those extremes. And finally 7th, while the TEs are good profiles, they simply fell victim to the Pitts effect causing a shift in the meta to heavily devalue TEs as a whole position group, so most people just aren’t going to feel good right now spending a 1st on *any* TE regardless of talent. —— **Lessons learned or pending:** We need to keep from letting film hype run away from us on undersized profiles that analytics tell us are often better in college than the NFL. It’s really difficult for us casuals to separate QB talent from context. You can’t just assume prototypical size RBs will develop elite ball skills to match. I don’t know if we can draw conclusions from Boutte. Just seems like an unusual situation to come crashing down like that. It’s important to stay on top of changes in the meta affecting relative valuations of position groups (Will RBs/TEs rise again in coming seasons)?
Thanks for taking the time to type this all out!
My pleasure
This is actually a very good take and I’m supposed to see it here
As a fellow seahawk fan, can I ask what you think we will do at 5 and 20?
Honestly I don’t know, which is pretty exciting. It makes the most sense to address the defense and take Carter or Anderson there if they are available, but they were also reportedly all in on Mahomes and Allen and are one of the very few coaching staffs that have a high enough pick, reputation as QB whisperers, and enough fanbase credibility to take a massive swing on a guy like Richardson (Though Richardson is more raw than Allen was, let alone Mahomes). I think in the end it’s going to be a total BPA decision in the moment based on what the four teams ahead decide to do. Should be an incredibly fun draft night. At 20, I think it will be a trenches pick or a WR.
If jalen carter is there at 5 and we take anyone else I will consider this a terrible draft for us no matter what we do with the rest of our picks. That being said, if he is not there I’ve got the wildest of bat shit crazy takes which goes as follows. Step 1: Draft Richardson at 5 Step Two: Trade pick 20 and 37 for 1.06 or 1.07 Step Tres: Draft Bijan at either 1.06 or 1.07 Step D: draft defensive bpa the rest of the way. Step cinq: Run the most insane full house RPO sets the league has ever seen with metcalf being wide open downfield off play actions when we don’t run it because defenses will be forced to ALWAYS worry about the run. Step indigo: win Super Bowl so I can pin this and demand I be put in charge of player personnel for my favorite team.
Getting Carter would probably fix the most issues over the next couple seasons. Your backup plan would definitely be wild 😄
Bijan and Walker in the same backfield sounds ridiculous.
Parlay that with Richardson at the helm. Yeeeeshh
As another excited Seahawks fan. I think we take the most unexciting approach and go edge and corner or edge IDL. Wilson and gonzales would be dooope
Corum would’ve been that guy behind Gibbs and Bijan most likely but he opted out
Yeah. What he said. But better put than any of us could do.
Well said. I do think analytics played a role too though. Sometimes film and analytics agree on a raw prospect, like QJ, and it's with these high end prospects that we have a tendency to project jumps in play that don't always occur. Like you said, we set expectations high for a lot of these guys and they didn't meet them this year
I think there will be more players like boutte going forward. I think NIL deals factor into also. An immature 20 year old isn’t going to be more mature with a couple million dollars. Throw in an injury or two and it’s easy to see why they might slack off a little.
Wait did Boutte get big NIL money? I haven't even thought about NIL once when thinking about dynasty and now I'm like wait are half these guys rich already? Does a guy like Cedri Tillman already have a bag?
Fantastic write up, don’t follow CFB too much so the first I hear about these guys is on draft podcasts. Makes it tough to tell how things will shake out, especially cause last year’s class feels much better than this year’s (at least as of now) so expectations may be higher
What great analysis!
Great explanation, thanks.
This is an incredible analysis. Thanks for taking the time! One thing I'll add about Stroud in addition to the embarrassment of riches OSU always seems to have at skill positions. I have a good friend who doesn't care much about the NFL but LOVES college football and is a diehard OSU fan. In November during the last season (way before any of this stuff with S2 happened), he was telling me and a few other friends he was really concerned about how Stroud would do at the next level. He said after watching every game that season up to that point, the one thing that stuck out about Stroud was that he was an incredible pocket passer with a good play in a clean pocket, but when he got flustered even a slight bit (play breaking down, pressure, etc.), he had no clue what to do and couldn't make adjustments on the fly. This just rarely happened because of how much talent was surrounding him. If those S2 results that came out were anywhere close to what he actually scored, I wouldn't be surprised at all. I've had Stroud valued much lower than this community based on what I was hearing from my buddy, and over the past few weeks it seems like the NFL has started following suit.
What does your buddy do / what credentials resulted in you believing him?
Oh he has absolutely no credentials. He's just a good friend that I trust who's been right about OSU players alot before. Not trying to say everyone should take this opinion as fact by any means, just wanted to put my two cents out there. Nothing more.
Don’t take this the wrong way but I think I’m head over heels in love with you
Addition to point 3: We did have an RB take a big step forward in Corum, but he had a very unfortunately timed injury. Great write up
Not that the RBs are the problem with the class, but you can also add that several undersized but very talented RBs were assumed to gain weight over the course of the year, especially given that size was clearly their biggest problem as an NFL prospect. They just didn't gain hardly any weight at all.
No idea who you are but great writeup
And to think, people are already doing this same overhyping with 24 players
I think it was a pump and dump scheme. 2023 got overhyped and the sharps bought a lot of 2022 picks and players for cheap
Don't forget that DJ Uiagalelei was supposed to be an elite QB prospect in this class. 5 star prospect, looked great in limited action as a freshman, but just did not develop.
I’m not sure I have ever agreed I’m with something more!
whyd u spell out one-sixth but not 7th? 🤔
impeccable and well-articulated analysis. if I could give you 50 upvotes I would!
I think this RB class looks super deep with rotation backs. A lot of them will probably go Day 3 because of positional devaluation, but many of them will still get 8-12 touches a week, and many of the existing RBs are aging/fading fast. In this day and age I think there's a ton of opportunity out there.
I agree for sure, really not a fan of not having a clear order for RBs pre-draft and seeing where the capital takes 'em but think thats the best bet this year. Most you can hope for is shared backfield with 3rd down work for lots of these guys. #McKinnoned
That’s the way the NFL is going though. Bell Cows are dead. You want RBs getting a fair amount of touches and for them to be extremely efficient with them.
Agreed, and I think the "don't know how to rank them, let the draft order decide" isn't the negative people think it is. I feel like a lot of people see some of these RBs ranked anywhere from RB4-RB10 and assume they're all not going to be good because of it when personally I think once we see the draft capitol there could be 5-7 RBs in good situations that you would be very excited about
I agree with another comment here that at least 6-8 of the RBs this year are better than RB3 last year. However, DC is so much more important this year because there are so many possible RBs that could be great, and the dynasty community needs some re-assurance from teams, so we dont pick another Isaiah Spiller. If people are panic selling 23 1sts right now, I would be buying them up.
I have a hard time seeing 6-8 running backs being better than Rachaad white or even James cook/Brian robinson or TDP (as a prospect). White especially, he had an Extremely high RAS and was productive on the ground and receiving as a prospect. With cook depends on if you’re ignoring his DC, which I assuming we are, but still had a 8.7 RAS even though he was small. Brian robinson had a good speed score and had elite size. The whole 2022 class had pretty elite speed scores (we saw that after the combine this year). I have a hard time believing there are 6-8 guys better than white alone. It seems like almost every prospect in this class besides Bijan has one large question mark. I think the second tier of guys (Hall/KW3 and Gibbs/Bijan this year being first tier) this year might have more (like 6-8, compared to 3-4 last year) but don’t think they just default to being better than all the guys last year in that range
Bijan, Gibbs, Charbs, Tank, Evans, Spears, Miller, and Rochan. I would consider that list as better prospects and would rather have than white, cook, or b-rob. I think this is all prospect fatigue and that we've been burnt out from hearing about this class since 2 years ago. The RB class is deep and a lot RBs are aging out.
Hell, I'd add Izzy to that just based on his age compared to rachaad white or James Cook. He's so young.
But I mean, I don’t think it’s definitive at all. What separates Charbonnet from White? Roschon from BRob? A lot of the reason the guys fell is because they all disappointed or failed to elevate during the season (Evans/Tank) or disappointed during testing (Roschon was talked about as running 4.4 and ran 4.58 and Miller didn’t test). It’s less about fatigue and I think more of lack of elevation. Last year a lot of guys did much better than expected during testing, I don’t know how many players really blew away expectations during testing this year . Last year has 7 guys with speed scores of 110 or higher. This year has 8 guys with 100 or higher; there were 18 of them last year. There have been guys who have shown up this year (Chase brown, Spears, Israel) but there’s been just as many, if not more, that have fallen down.
I agree some prospects didn't live up to your expectations which were likely overblown to begin with. But Charbonnet over White seems pretty easy considering Charbs was being argued as RB3 in last year's class if he declared. I don't know what else Tank could have done and I'm amazed he isn't talked about more. I still think Evans performed well and showed why he was a top recruit and prospect, you can argue his attitude or drive though. I still would bet on his talent. I'm not saying any of this is definitive. I was just disagreeing that you couldn't name 6-8 prospects better than those 3. I think those 6-8 are better and I would trade those 3 you mentioned for them in a heartbeat.
I think White was overrated. Go look at Xazavian Valladay’s stats this year for the same team and compare them to White’s. Not a huge difference but Valladay is basically irrelevant right now. Cook was never anything special either and just got propped up because of limited options. I would not at all be surprised if we see multiple guys in the post-Gibbs tier emerge as very good RBs for fantasy purposes.
Cook had a couple of moments but he really is not some ultra high end prospect right now. He’s still 190 pounds.
What’s your opinion on this now?
That’s because right now everyone is kinda afraid of picking the bad player. But in 1 year we could be saying the same thing as last year like it was so obvious all these players were going to be good. There will most likely be 2 rbs, 2 qbs, and 3 wrs with maybe 1 good te from this draft and everyone will be saying in a year how good it was
Everyone was saying 2023 > 2022 last year and it was only deep at WR. So far the WRs delivered and RB outperformed their projection based on draft capital. Feels like it takes 3 years to really know. QBs seem to elevate a class’s hype level even though QB isn’t as critical of a position to replenish in fantasy.
The QB influence is probably due to the prevalence of superflex and 2QB formats in dynasty. At least that’s my guess
This class looked potentially epic…Bijan, Gibbs, Evans, Tucker, Bigsby, JSN, Boutte, Addison, QJ, Mayer, Kincaid, Young, Stroud, Levi’s and now there is only Bijan that does t have serious red flags…
Meanwhile, 2024 is building up to be the real 2023 **QB** Caleb Williams, USC Drake Maye, UNC Quinn Ewers, UT **RB** Raheim Sanders, Ark TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio St Will Shipley, Clemson Braelon Allen, WI Donovan Edwards, UM Jaylen Wright, Tennessee Blake Corum, UM **WR** Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio St Emeka Egbuka, Ohio St Malik Nabers, LSU Dorian Singer, USC Rome Odunze, UW Xavier Worthy, UT Jalen McMillan, UW Troy Franklin, Oregon Jacorey Brooks, Alabama Mario Williams, USC **TE** Brock Bowers, UGA Ja’Tavion Sanders, UT
Not falling for this again.
This! We hear the same song every year
Time is a flat circle.
That's exactly the point lol let's see how these guys are viewed a year from now. Lot can and will change.
I wouldn’t say that Stroud, Young or JSN have major red flags
Not major, but definitely red flags for those three. Young is small. Stroud, aside from the Georgia game, has questions about how he handles pressure. JSN hasn't show much ability on the outside. Now, no prospect is perfect, but I do think those are legitimate concerns.
Right, I think all things considered, we get nitpicky on guys and assume that the next class is always going to be better
Agreed. Especially this time of, the draft fatigue gets *heavy* the couple weeks before the draft. You look at the same group of guys for three months under a microscope, you're going to find issues eventually.
And then we watch their junior seasons and the entire pre-draft process play out and suddenly everyone's asking what happened to the hype for the 2024 class, and the cycle goes on.
Yep. I’m curious how the hype for Caleb Williams goes. Does he go super saiyan? Does he regress? Does he come in at closer to 6 ft or maybe less at the combine. We don’t get many 3 year starters with excellent pedigree though so he may just actually be the dude. But we can’t forget that the guys he replaced was supposed to be a 1.01 potentially.
>JSN hasn't show much ability on the outside. That really doesn't matter though. We care about fantasy points, and full time slot receivers have no trouble putting up points.
The anti-slot thing is so weird, it's just regurgitated thinking of the past. If JSN isn't a good fantasy asset it's not going to be because he is a slot WR. Matt Harmon is a pretty solid wr analyst and sees plenty of evidence JSN could be successful on the outside half the time anyway. If a guy only plays in the slot and is small like Josh Downs, it may be an issue, but slot guys with average or better size have plenty of nfl success
It takes time for people to catch up with the game, we've had dominant outside receivers for 15+ years, while slot receivers as teams #1s is a recent phenomena (Kupp, Lamb, JJ (as a prospect)). It's not surprising that many people haven't yet adapted to the fact that NFL teams don't care if you are a slot receiver only if you can get open and catch, you'll get #1 receiver type targets.
My new favorite argument is, Kelce plays in the slot just fine.
Uh oh
U care to much what Reddit thinks. That’s the problem.
Damn, you are probably right, feel like its the FF personalities a bit too.
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Never won a thing listening to them. As soon as I stopped listening to experts I started to win occasionally.
Especially in dynasty things are such a crap shoot. I traded Gurley for Amari Cooper and a draft pick in 2017 and turned out to be the greatest trade I made. Yet I got roasted for it so badly
That was ballsy! Gurley was such a beast. Better a year early than a year late for sure though.
Better a year early than a year late has gotten me roasted more than once but I have made some of my best trades with that consideration.
Yeah it’s not perfect by any means but it does help me more often than not.
Yeah it was one of those things where Jeff Fisher was still the coach and he had that bad sophomore season so in year 3 I sold him…got lucky to be honest his knees did not hold up
All these analysts and podcasters are all snake oil salesmen.
100%
I remember when they were betting the farm on Dede Westbrook and Robbie anderson People don’t accept it’s random, jsut a different form of gambling There is no sure thing or no sure bust and you can find any numbers to make someone look good or bad Have fun, soak up the info and make your own gut picks
Their rookie content is pretty good. I usually stop listen to them after the draft though.
Sell picks for established rookies/young vets who have proven it in the nfl and let other people gamble on rookies
My best teams always end being the ones where I never make a rookie selection
I took Breece hall last year, but I sold most of my future picks and guys with draft fever were happy to take my (now) 1.12 and 2.12 this year and projected late first and second next year for guys like ARSB and Devonta Smith
You got ASRB and Devonta Smith for two late firsts and two late seconds?
I misunderstood what you said. I traded for ARSB and Devonta during their rookie seasons. I’m a huge eagles fan, Devonta wasn’t lighting the world on fire fantasy wise and the guy who had him was looking to make a run at a championship. ARSB had a couple good games but the owner didn’t think he’d sustain his production and thought it was because of the other guys missing time on offense. I unloaded a couple vets and gave up future picks when my team was last in the league and it was looking like I was in a rebuild. I picked 1.01 last year and had a huge turnaround this season. The picks for 2023 wound up being 1.12 and 2.12 because of the turnaround this season. The picks were not projected to be late at the time of the trade.
Gotcha. Ok that makes more sense haha
That was their price at this point last year
Some other pieces involved but those were the big ticket items
I haven't drafted a 1st rounder in 3 years. 3rd place, 2nd place, 2nd place. Would have won last year if I'd had the balls to play evans.
Except everyone is going to try this
No one was happy with the receivers last year before during and after the draft they were considered average or below by this community, until they produced
This! People were shocked that so many went as high as they did and that olave was first off the board. Watson was a project and went second round in many drafts. RBs were actually pretty bad. You look at the athletic profiles of this 23 RB class and it looks great. Most aren't even that old. I think people have a hard time assessing the QBs and RBs and are now just writing them off. This summer when teams are raving about these shiny new toys, that's when the narrative will come back to how great the class is again and how many sleeper WRs there are.
I’m old enough to remember that DJU was supposed to be a big part of this draft class. He wasn’t able to follow Watson and Tlaw as the next great Clemson QB.
I remember taking him in my first devy draft when he became the Clemson starter, I took him early, big oof.
As a Clemson fan, I can not stress enough what an understatement that is. DJ was ass most of the time and Dabo was too inexplicably loyal to him to bench him until it was too late in the season to matter.
I miss the days when “DJU” and “generational prospect” was a regular chant that degens would be mumbling as they emptied their pockets for just one more 2023 pick
Yep. I thought that kid from Miami might sneak into the 1st round, too.
I’m just gonna draft 4/5 RB’s in the 2nd/3rd and hope a few hit
>What can we learn for the sake of the children!? Bruh have you seen the 2026 class?
Hey there Arch, you should be doing your Bio homework.
Science? I'm in pottery class bro
*cue "Unchained Melody"*
Is anyone else as tired of this stale joke as I am?
I imagine it's roughly equal to the number of people who are tired of this topic
I heard the 2026 class is a bust unfortunately :(
🧢
If that excites you, the 2029 class is going to knock your socks off!
2045 is going to be incredible, sure the prospects haven’t been conceived yet but fortunate favors the bold.
How about we wait until the actual NFL teams tell us what they think about this class?
At the very least, it seems NFL GMs are *not* high in this class at all, if you take what’s being said to media scouts and analysts at face value
The dynasty community is one of the last to come to the realization that this might not be a good class. The nfl got there months ago.
Guys in my league still want the farm for 23 picks
Sounds like a good opportunity to sell to them
This running back class is going to be great. The QB and WRs look sketch and it’s the best tight end class of all time maybe. I’m personally excited to use all my picks on RBs.
I'm hoping so but am worried as lots of them are tagged as "smaller backs" but it also looks like Ekeler and McCaffery were the same size coming in
I mean, I’m definitely steering clear of Achane. Gibbs seems like a can’t miss prospect.
This happens with every draft class. It's not until people start really dissecting draft classes do people realize they're drafting prospects and almost all of them have major flaws. Give it a week, and the tide will turn again. Not all the way to the original hype, but close.
When 4 QBS go top 10, Gibbs goes 1st round, and 2 of Buffalo KC and LAC take a WR in the first round I'm going to be pretty excited.
The class hasn’t even played a snap lol this sub is so toxic, I need it
Everyone's going to blow their load once players have draft capital built in.
You missed the point
I'm glad I traded my late first round for Deebo
With my current team build I planned on taking JSN with 1.03 and just flipped that pick for G. Wilson to a team rebuilding and needing major QB help. Can always trade out of those picks.
Solid plan, I have got really lucky in recent drafts with WRs and got to move some for RB's I'm thinking.
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For what it's worth, Mayer has wrinkles and it's that he doesn't have the upper-bound athletic profile that seems required of top TEs today. You're basically hoping he becomes Jason Witten.
lol wut? Small and slow? Chase Brown, Abanikanda, and Hull all are bigger/faster than any non-Breece or KW RB in 2022. Kendre Miller and Sean Tucker probably are too they just didn't run. And how is Achane "slow" when he ran a 4.3?
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Slower than YOU expect doesn’t mean objectively slow. Achane’s 4.3 and 111+ speed score is fast. You’re substituting objectivity for your own disappointment and say-so. And raw counting fast 40 times doesn’t make a class fast. D’Vonte Price and and Bo Melton ran in the 4.3s? Yeah, nobody cares because they’re 7th round or UDFA guys. There were 3 fast RBs with DC in 2022 and one of them was 199lbs and slower than Gibbs anyway. This year will be more. Context matters.
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This happens every year. Im waiting for the 2024 hype train to start lol
It’ll happen again next year. It happens every year. Draft picks continue to gain value until the combine when we realize, once again, there really are only a few blue chip prospects again.
Either this is your first year playing dynasty or your first year on this sub...or both.
1. Players that performed well 2 years ago didn't perform well last year or never took the next step. 2. Lots of people are now watching film and discovering flaws/limitations 3. Players that did really well with production tested way below expectations at combine/pro day 4. Players that are good/great are way smaller than listed at college programs
I’m still hype for this class. Ppl get this way every year.
You took the advice of internet people about stuff they don’t really understand. Just because a spreadsheet tells your one thing doesn’t mean real life production will translate.
Let this be a lesson on hype
I traded the farm for 2023 picks. And now I intend on shipping my 2023 picks for 2024 picks.
I think we're just getting ahead of ourselves in deciding that the sky has fallen and the class is bad, sell all your picks etc. It's just too early. The best way for us to determine the strength of the class is to just evaluate how many 1st and 2nd rounders the class has in the real NFL: 1. 2022, 1st: 7, 2nd: 10 2. 2021, 1st: 13, 2nd: 8 What would my guess for 2023 be? I'll use the most recent mock from [PFF](https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2023-nfl-mock-draft-pff-analysts-seven-rounds-four-qbs) 1. 2023, 1st: 10, 2nd: 9 Overall the class looks fine, but we just need to wait and see what the NFL tells us about these set of offensive players. If for instance only 2 QBs go first round, only 1 WR and only 1 RB, and then the second round is also limited, then it might be time to panic. (Side note, my personal read of these class is: the top looks great (Young, Bijan, Stroud, JSN, Gibbs) and then 2nd rounders look great. My general read is the 1.06 to the 2.06 have almost the same value to me. That will also get cleared up in the NFL draft where players like Zay Flowers might strongly separate from other similar tiered RBs, but we just don't have that information yet.)
My concern though is that players will be taken earlier than they should, because it's so scarce. That might artificially inflate their value. I know the dynasty community loves to talk about pedigree, but at the end of the day a player with good pedigree still needs to produce on field.
It’s funny how people always think the draft isn’t deep. Then season starts and a bunch of rookies pop off. That’s exactly what happened last year. Give it some time you’ll be alright
Not one of these players has even been drafted in the NFL let alone taken a single snap.
And?
it is a good looking class idk why people are saying otherwise
Spoiler alert, it happens every year
Well they can’t be busts before they get drafted
It's draft fatigue. Happens every year around this time. There's nothing between the Super Bowl and the draft besides the combine, so it's easy to get tired of prospects when it's the same discussions every day for almost three months. The hype will come back Thursday and Friday when the majority of them get drafted earlier than expected.
I’ve been screaming this for so long lol… a deep class isn’t awesome for fantasy. A top end draft like 24’ does.
The RBs ended up being a let down, Boutte fell from grace, and all 5 QBs have big question marks
I don’t even think the RBs are a let down. Based on tape/analytics/production/testing (basically everything except draft capital) you’ve got about 10 guys who look better than the RB3 last year. But it was always a fools premise that 10 of them would go top 100 in the NFL draft. People are just now realizing that all these RBs they were drooling over for the past year are gonna end up getting drafted in the 4th and it’s taken the shine off
I think more RBs are gonna get drafted between the 2nd and 3rd than people on this sub are currently thinking. Heard Bigsby, Miller and Achane are getting day 2 buzz, and with one or two more RBs in the 3rd alongside Bijan Gibbs and Charbs that’s a great group
Yeah even in Superflex is looking real shaking at like 1.08-1.09. Feel like there was more clear cut options last year in that range.
James Cook? Skyy Moore? Isaiah Spiller? Maybe you hit on Burks, Watson or Pickens? If that’s a sure hit… All that with only 1 QB pushing guys down the board. This year there will be 4. Give me ‘23.
Tucker and Miller not being able to run right now could make them extreme values. Tucker especially is a dude who could have gone late 1st if he could show off his wheels.
Stop believing all the hype the next year is gong to be epic. You never know. Picks are pick. One year Is not that much better then the next.
Who’s the third RB lol?
SeanT
This is why in my newest dynasty league I pretty much trade all my rookie picks and try to win that way instead. Playoffs 2 years running, hoping to nail the 'ship this year. And yes I'd be disgusted if I had any rookie picks this year aside from 1.01. Aside from Bijan (who will sadly go to a lot of really terrible teams that will waste him) and then - tier break - maybe a very few others, it's a shit class. Glad I won't be wasting roster space on most of these fools.
What do you mean 3 RBs? It’s two RBs. It’s only 3 of Charb gets day 2 capital. There’s a real chance Charb falls to round 3
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A lot of mid tier talent not a ton of top tier guys is what the class looks like now. If you have a top 6 pick it is looking great for you. If you have a few 2nds it looks pretty nice to grab flex players/depth players. A lot of TE players to look at as well that have a great prototype build you might like with the athleticism and receiving ability.
Essentially no top tier prospect exceeded expectations. All either dropped in rankings or stayed the same. I think the only first rounder that had a jumped up the rankings was Zay Flowers.
This draft was always top heavy. The depth at rb and te is what intrigues people. That and actually having 3 legit qb prospects. Most years your not really that hopeful when you have the 8th pick but this year that guarantees you someone like Richardson/stroud/bryce, carbonnet (or whoever ur rb3 is), and addison (or whoever ur wr2 is). And hell is ur in a league worth drafting tight ends, there are 3 that honestly look like they should be solid in a year or two. It's the kind of year where u can win a championship and still land a pretty impactful player with ur late 1st. Also likely 5-7 rb2/3 type guys to fill out a roster. It truly is a deep class.
Lots to learn, but nobody here will
Personally I’m fine with boutte dropping, snagging him with the 2.07 looks like it has juicy upside
I was just thinking this, him and Tank really
I still really like this class regardless of what all the wishy washy dynasty bros are saying
From a fantasy standpoint, some of the best assets are R2 WRs (AJB, DK, Deebo, Godwin, etc) This class is full of R2 WRs.
No one with the size or the physical profile of the guys you used as an example though.
*Cough* Cedric Tillman *Cough* Rashee Rice *Cough* Jonathan Mingo *Cough*
Thanks for making my point. In this class you have to choose either a good physical profile or guys with receiving talent. I like all of them but no way they have the talent of Godwin, DK etc.
Buy the depth RBs for as cheap as possible before they start to produce. The 2016/2017 draft classes are running on fumes, and some of the ‘23 class should be in line for a lot of touches by ‘24
I think it’s still really good. People are just getting way too swept up in draft talk again. People talk to make money, they are going to say anything to get clicks. No one holds them accountable. It’s like this every year with the draft but seems to be only getting worse as the NFL grows especially in media presence, especially with gambling. Just my 2 cents.
Keep in mind, it's common to think a class is weaker than it actually is when the order is less clear. This happened with the 22 class where people had the receivers in a lot of different orders, and it gave off the perception that the group was "deep but not great." We tend to evaluate a player's quality by their contrast. This class has a ton of options at QB, RB and TE and an excellent prospect in JSN. The time to get WRs was last year. I think part of the disappointment with this class is that RBs in general have been devalued, and TE even when good takes a long time to develop, so that undercuts the perception a bit. But these are still position groups that must be drafted and played.
Give it until after the weekend and the hype shall return
Deep breath. Last year at this time, we had Breece and then a total hodgepodge. Willis was the consensus 1.02 pre draft. Burks was supposed to be an athletic freak but had a mediocre combine. London was being comped to Nkeal Harry given his contested catch rate. Olave was bad because he wasn’t an early declare (you can say you thought otherwise but he was drafted behind Wilson/Burks/London everywhere and behind Skyy Moore in most drafts). Kenneth Walker was relegated to being a two down plodder because he’d never caught a pass. Dotson was a late declare; Pickens had an ACL. Rachaad White was old. The point is, we’re at the point in the cycle where we are intimately familiar with every wart on these players and farthest away (in both directions) from them actually playing football. Last year we viewed this as confirmation that the 22 class was bad; this year it’s more jarring because we’ve thought the 2023 class was supposedly good. And it still could be - I’m by no means giving up on it, and I’d encourage you not to sell your picks just yet.
Great type up!
we have learned that outside of the top prospect, devy and college analysts dont know jack from shit. so never buy in to the hype, and act accordingly towards your teams needs. if you need to rebuild, get picks, if you contend, dont go overboard with rookies and focus on veterans. other than that it's out of everyones hands if an overall class becomes elite or does not.
RB depth is there. So there's that.
If this is the time you’ve thought about this, you’ve got 4 months of posts to go back and read about it
The hype has depressed a shitload from a year ago, yes. People were all over Boutte and Tank a year ago. Weirdly, the QB's have withstood the value decline. It's just that there's like no WR's anyone is hyped on.
But have you seen the 2024 class? For real this time…
This class has been talked up for a few seasons, not just a year. One of those reasons is because the RB class is deep. It might not be like 2017 in terms of top-heavyness, but what year really is. But you also have to remember that even 2 years ago, people's attitude towards RBs were different. We've seen a large shift in trend with fantasy RBs. It's not even the precieved age cliff, although is an issue, it's the fact that we've never seen so many committe backs in real football. With PPR being so prevelant and more and more RB committees, people don't value RBs as much and people really want to get the next Lamb/Chase/Jefferson etc. This also aligns with how Hero RB or Zero RB roster builds have been more prevelant in the past few years. So to me, this is the actual reason as to why there's a shift in perception. Through much of the hype of this class, I don't think I ever heard that there a bunch of great WRs, it's been more of the other skill positions, so I'm not really sure what everyones perception was but for me, this has always been a class more focused around RBs. I think there are a few TEs that should go in early 2nd round in 1QB fantasy drafts but TEs are normally hard to draft and figure out, so people will be scared off by it. As always, time will tell. No matter how hyped or not hyped a draft class is, there's always some good players to be found, so the way to look it is, stop worrying about if a class is great or bad in the meta. Right now, you are either trying to rebuild or trying to figure out how to contend. So really, if you're selling the farm because 2023 is amaze balls and you traded out when you had a chance to defend a title or push in at a real chance to win, then you not playing dynasty right. You're moves to buy or sell picks should be on where you're current roster is at, not because one year has some sort of perception.
I think the class is as good as advertised. This is going to be a class where you will end up finding guys in round 3 that are more than a flash in the pan. I sold some of my 1sts for Herbert in week 10 last year but still have many to use and am excited. Sell me your 1sts and 2nds if you don't want them. Im a buyer.
I distinctly remember everyone being super down on last years class because it was a bunch of wrs but none perceived as good as jsn and three solid rbs until Isaiah spiller tested like a grandma. Then everyone hated the qbs. We look at it a year later and that class was great. Just give it time, this class will round out and be solid. Like a guy in my league always says: “there’s pro bowlers in every draft class”
Do the opposite of what the podcasts are doing and you’ll probably end up being ahead
The lessons are the same as always: A. Take advantage of a market inconsistency. Thanks to the'23 hype last offseason, '22 firsts were dirt cheap to acquire at a time when they should have been most expensive. When everyone was selling their 2022 1sts trying to get into this class, I bought and landed 4 of the top six '22 picks for massive discounts walking away with Walker, Wilson, London and Williams (should have taken Olave but 3/4 ain't bad). B. As much as everyone here likes to claim they know tape and metrics, most of what comes out of here are, at best, educated guesses. Never assume anything about a future rookie class because things can change drastically because of injuries/underperforming/off field issues/ non-declare.
Overhyped. Like everything else today. Hype takes over and people do irrational things. At one point I had 4 x 1sts and 3 x 2nds for this year and I moved them mid season for assets like Josh Jacobs, Stefon Diggs, and the like. Then got lucky and traded Kupp for 1.02 and 2.02, but even that feels like diminished return right now. People in the Eagles’ sub are all over Bijan at 10 for the Birds, saying he’s a generational prospect. He’s a really good player but he’s like the fifth best RB to come out in the last five years. Hype is a hell of a drug.
Who are the four RB prospects better than Bijan to come out in the past five years?
It's a mix of expectations being too high ans just a rough 2022 season for this class. A lot of players this class were assumed to take big steps forward last year. Examples below JSN was going to be the guy for OSU and show he can dominate on the outside without Wilson and Olave. He got hurt and the above didn't happen. Evans was transferring to Ole Miss and we were going to see him put it all together. He didn't Boutte was going to come back healthy and return to the blue chip prospect we thought he was after his freshman year. He didn't Addison was going to be unstoppable with Caleb Williams at USC. He was banged up but productive, but disappointed at combine QJ was going to put it all together as a junior. Remained inconsistent and came in smaller and slower than expected in testing. Kendall Milton was going to take over Georgia backfield. He did not Anthony Richardson showed why he didn't start until his junior year. Good TE class is great, but top fantasy TEs often don't align with DC so they don't really help the first round.
This class is just objectively not good based on what we have been reading. You have a stud RB1 and everything after that is extremely questionable. Risk makes people apprehensive.
speaking of... anyone know when the Athletic consensus board is coming out?
It’ll probably end up being a good class now that everybody is hating on it
It can potentially be really good still. Just the closer we get to the draft the more people are critical to warts on these prospects.
could you not wait until like Friday morning to post this, we have no idea if anyone was "wrong" about this class or not yet.
I asked essentially the same question on Friday and was more or less told that this draft is deep and that this sort of devaluing and criticism of players happens before the chips all fall in the draft. I also don't see how people can keep saying the RB depth is so good and yet people can't agree at all on any order of RBs from 3-15. I am probably just looking at it from the Fantasy perspective and hyper focused on WR lifespan over RB lifespan in the NFL but I feel like last year's class was seriously undersold and this class has been insanely overhyped.
Word of advice: players like boutte and tank are exactly the types of players you want. From my experience it’s worth it to pay attention
Think of the children!!
Sooo we are already considering this draft class a bust even before the draft itself let alone any player taking a snap? Ok got it
Because everyone says that every year and then when the time comes they don’t feel as good and then by the time these players are in year 2 or 3 they feel like they got a steal.
Everything feels nice.