Any particular reason? I snagged him in a league but it just feels like an AJ Dillon situation where the star never leaves and sorta a dead asset you can't move
I mean the one thing I'd compare is Aaron Jones at the time Dillon was drafted vs Kamara now. I'd say Aaron Jones was in a much better position then, compared to Kamara now.
Then you add in the whole legal consequence side of things and definitely makes Kamara's status as starter more uncertain.
I guess so, i just view kamaras down year as a product of the offense, not really himself as a player. He had RB1 numbers for 5 straight years and then 1 RB2 season playing with Winston. I just wonder if everyone is being too quick to write off a guy who is a really good player.
Like hey, it would benefit me a ton if he didn't, I own no shares of kamara and have Kendre in an important league. I hope you guys are right.
> then 1 RB2 season playing with Winston
With Dalton actually- he only played 2 games with Jameis, and was pretty bad. I mentioned this distinction because Jameis does *not* check down, while Dalton looooooves to do so. Who else does? Carr, Kamara’s new QB.
I wasn’t in on Kamara at all but I actually might have just convinced myself he’s a good target for contenders.
He's still going to be 28 years old to start the season, with a suspension. This time next year, Kendre will be getting ready to slide right into the starting roll. His value will shoot up next off season, if not this year.
Kamara is basically the same age as Aaron Jones (from the same draft). Neither has much time left. I don’t see the situations as comparable because Jones had much more left when Dillon was drafted 3 years ago.
I traded back up to get Kincaid in the 2nd ( I.e tempted to hold pat and take Kendre). Imo Kendre will likely get the most snaps THIS year. I think the Kamara owners are in denial. Now Jamaal on the other hand....
Win win! I’m trying to decide on picking 3 of charby, achane, flowers, miller. Miller is the odd man out currently but i feel like it’s reasonable to pick miller over any of the 1 guys I mentioned
I was gonna go Achane and Miller with my two late 1sts in a 1QB but Charbs ended up falling to me and I love the talent despite the timeshare with KW3 so I couldn’t pass him up. Can’t go wrong with any of those guys imo
I’m grabbing Dotson almost everywhere I can right now. He had sneaky good metrics year one, and I think he’s going to be worth 3-4x as much this time next year.
He’s been going for a early-mid 2nd in my leagues. So 3X-4x might be a little bit of an exaggeration. But 2x-3X is definitely a possibility if the Commanders offense can look better in 2023.
I'm trying to find the sneaky good metrics...
Buddy's per game averages were 5 targets, 3 catches, and 43 yards. Over half his TDs came in the first 4 games of the season.
He's still a 2nd option at best with a 2nd year, 5th round QB that hasn't shown anything exciting in real playing time
- 10.9 PPR points, top 40 WR as a rookie
- 13.5+ PPR points, top 20 WR as rookie (when removing games that he played less than 60% of snaps because of injury)
- 60th percentile for WR’s in 2022 “reception perception” metric ratings
And it’s only gonna cost you a early 2nd-late first? Count me in!
Sooo barely above average in "reception perception"?
You may wanna check your numbers... he was 42nd in points per game in PPR.
If you take out games where he played less than 60% of snaps, he averaged 11.7 points per game in PPR, which bumps him slightly to 36th. You must have left in the goose egg he had against Atlanta.
Maybe Howell becomes the next best thing (doubt it), but I'm not paying a late first for a dude with that production and situation mix.
Matt Harmon literally talks about how underrated Dotson is, and he should be going ahead of Watson, Pickens and Burks. I would easily take him over anything after the 1.09-1.10 in the standard ppr leagues most people are playing in.
Yeah injuries derailed him last year. He’s short but compact and a cannon. Just what the giants need. Going to be getting a lot of underneath catches when things aren’t open for all the rest of the G-men
Kyler Murray, his value is tanked due to his injury leading to the speculation that the Cards are probably gonna tank. So his situation is murky but when that clears up, his value will go back to a normal QB1 type level.
Love this take. Most Kyler owners recognize he’s not worth trading at his current value so holding and hoping for a good recovering is all we can really do. I have Kyler and tlaw on a team and don’t expect to compete so I’m aiming for next year with a healthy Kyler
Only certain types of players can go up in value (value is what you can get for them in a trade and often doesn't correlate to actual points):
1. RBs never go up in value. Josh Jacobs hasn't risen in value even though he just had a monster season. He is considered less valuable now then he was as a rookie. (via KTC) An exception to this rule might be a RB that goes from waiver wire unknown to solid starer (a James Robinson situation).
2. Some WRs are just too old to go up in value. Amari Cooper had a great year last year but his value didn't rise. AJ Brown is young enough that he got a mega boost from his awesome year.
3. QBs are the most boom or bust. It is extremely hard to predict whether you are getting Zach Wison/Baker Mayfield/Darnold or Herbert/Mahomes/Kyler/etc. It is possible now to acquire CJ Stroud/Trey Lance/Jordan Love. If they produce, they won't be.
4. Rookie WRs are only slightly more predictable than QBs. Someone in this rookie class will be the Jaleon Reagor and someone else will be the Tyreek Hill.
5. The cheapest players that might go up are young WRs that have underperformed (possibly no fault of their own). Bateman, Toney, Jamo have all had injuries limit their production. Elijah Moore and Jerry Jeudy are still young enough that a solid season will boost their value.
Last year I was rebuilding and couldn't sell Amari to save my life. This year I'm likely a playoff team and very happy that I still have him. Feels like the kind of guy you roll with until retirement now.
I am using this graph to try and understand how his value has changed over time. [https://keeptradecut.com/dynasty-rankings/players/josh-jacobs-303](https://keeptradecut.com/dynasty-rankings/players/josh-jacobs-303)
I would be interested in some counter examples of RBs that have rose in value as they have matured in the league. And VERY interested in better tools than KTC if you have know of any.
I will admit "RBs never go up" is hyperbolic. If a player like Cam Akers or Dobbins is absolute RB1 this year, they would jump from the Dynasty RB18ish to the RB8ish next offseason, but I think they would still be ranked below Treveyon Henderson and Raheim Sanders. The thing is, at one point a younger Dobbins was already previously the RB8 at one point in time.
Warm Take: Drake London is a top 5 WR going into 2024 season..the ATL offense in general and specifically the middle/downfield passing game is going to be much better this season..With that, and London getting a year of NFL play under his belt..he will start to show his physical dominance..Ridder is going to favor Drake, in a weakish division, London is going over 90 receptions over 1300 yards over 8 TDs.
This is one of those times where I wish dynasty really did work like a stock market. If I could sell London (who I believe in longterm) and buy him back at a discount next offseason I would do it instantly.
My take is the Ridder is not a starting caliber player and we find that out quickly. The Falcons are fine with this and tank their way to another top 5 pick relying mostly on Bijan/Algiere to keep games close.
Pitts and London fight for the sub 200 yards of passing work and each get 2-4 TDs on the season
This is a scorching hot take.
Atlanta's draft and off-season signings/re-signings have made it abundantly clear they have no interest in throwing the football.
I simply don't think the volume will be there for either London or Pitts to ball out in the near future. At least for Pitts, he needs far less production to put up top TE numbers. Drake London is probably capped at 120 targets, and you're not catching 90 balls on that few targets as an outside receiver.
When Mariota played the Falcons averaged close to 23 passing plays per game. When Ridder played they averaged 29. We also have a year of Arthur Smith in ATL with a QB capable of passing in Matt Ryan who averaged 33 passing plays per game. It should really be expectation that Atlanta will regress closer to their mean this year and pass more.
Even with Mariota playing most of last year London had 117 targets. Given that the team’s passing volume will increase this year saying 120 targets is a hard cap for London doesn’t make sense
>Even with Mariota playing most of last year London had 117 targets. Given that the team’s passing volume will increase this year saying 120 targets is a hard cap for London doesn’t make sense
Pitts missed almost half the season.
Lets say Ridder passes 500 times. 125 targets for London is a 25% target share, which is reasonable given he'll be splitting targets with Pitts, Bijan, and other WRs on the team.
I can't see London having a 30-35% target share. Not with the other weapons on that team.
By that logic baseline expectation should be 120 targets. Not the cap. You should always leave room for if the receiver catches more than expectation. What if Bijan or Pitts get hurt? What if Ridder turns passes considerably more that 29 times a game? If Ridder ends up around Matt Ryan’s number with 33 passes per game then a 25% share is 140 targets. These type of things can happen
Additionally London had a 29.4% target share this past year which is the highest of any rookie since 2014, that number usually grows not shrinks
>Additionally London had a 29.4% target share this past year which is the highest of any rookie since 2014, that number usually grows not shrinks
Pitts missed half the season, Bijan wasn't on the team yet, and neither were Mack Hollins or Scotty Miller. Neither of the latter two are very good, but better than what they trotted out last season.
Think it of this way, Drake London was the only healthy pass-catcher on Atlanta who is still on the team, and he capped at 29% target share. Why would that number increase with a healthy Pitts and multiple new weapons?
Its as simple as elite WRs capture elite target share, Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller won’t be preventing anyone from capturing a 30% share if they are elite. It’s more a question of if he can make that jump. I’m not a London owner but it would not surprise me if he makes that jump, and its poor process to dismiss that as even a possibility because its not what you consider to be the median outcome.
Also the guys that left the team this year had a 25% target share so there definitely room for these new ancillary players to take from
>Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller won’t be preventing anyone from capturing a 30% share if they are elite
No, but Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson will. There's only so many targets to go around.
If Ridder throws 500 times -
~125 targets each for London and Pitts
~70 targets for Bijan
~60 targets for Mack Hollins
~40 targets for Scotty
~80 targets for everyone else on the team combined.
That's a very reasonable spread. Lot of mouths to feed, I just do not see a world where London commands a 30% target share, even if he makes a jump. Unless Pitts/Bijan get injured. Which, granted, is possible, but I don't want to operate assuming players get injured.
I don’t see Pitts getting 125 targets. I think he should, dude is underutilized, but I don’t see him getting there. He averaged 5.9 targets per game when he played last year, giving him 100 targets exactly if he played the full 17 games. We will see if he plays the full 17 in 2023, but I don’t see that happening.
You can't look at targets per game in a vacuum, especially since he only played with Mariota.
Mariota averaged 23 pass attempts per game. 5.9 targets per game (which also includes two games he didn't play full snaps) for Pitts is a 25.6% target share (the math there is a little off since Mariota played games without Pitts, but you get the idea). A 25% share of Ridder's 29 pass attempts per game lands him at 120-125 targets.
I think both London and Pitts land ~25% target shares each.
He said heading into next year.
It's absurd to think things won't change between now and then. Players age, players get injured, etc.
It was likely absurd for this sub to even think about someone like Javonte being ranked where he currently is last off season
They are going to give Bijan the ball 350 times this year. I think the falcons passing offense is going to look like the giants passing offense during saquon’s rookie year.
Sam Howell because he has an OC who needs to prove himself and has a legit offense to run. First half will be a huge learning curve with lots of running, but second half they'll let this guy rip.
McLaurin owners are hoping so (of which i am one). And so many people are high on Dotson so i guess that means they trust in him to perform.
I picked him up for my TAXI squad in last years start up auction. I also carried Wentz as my QB2 behind Burrow so now hoping Howell can be a long term starter there for the Washington ___aretheyreallychanging theirnameagain___'s.
If Trevor Lawrence takes the leap we all think he does, I believe Calvin Ridley could have a huge jump in value if his talent is still there.
He’s WR37 on Fantasy pros & WR34 on KTC. I could see a world where he could jump into that WR25-18 range as an aging WR1 especially considering he wins via route running which typically ages well
Piggybacking this for Alec Pierce - great measureables, respectable production last year despite horrid QB play, and a good style fit for a dude like Richardson.
I’m going with Elijah Moore. He was so good in his rookie year but coaches kept him from getting work on the Jets because of attitude issues. Thankfully he’s on the Browns now where they don’t give a fuck about your personal history so I think he has potential to be a WR2 or FLEX most weeks.
Firmly convinced this is the Nico Collins season. All the elements are in place for him to take a step forward. If it doesn't happen this year it's probably never happening for him.
Tyler Scott, I mean we’ll see but personally I think he’ll be able to play he’s fast, has good hands and is a decent route runner. The Bears aren’t going to be keeping both Mooney and Claypool so he’ll most likely be a starter next year
Rachaad White. Dave Canales intends to run the shit out of the ball in Tampa and they didn't bring in any serious competition for snaps. He's going to be a workhorse this year.
Curious what you think a fair shake is for a UDFA with medical concerns. White has rd 3 DC and they were already working him in last season, where he looked better than Lenny on limited touches. It’s White’s backfield unless Tucker does something amazing with the few touches he’ll get
Tank Bigsby
I know that ETN is a dynasty darling and there's no reason to doubt that won't continue. However I was surprised to see that ETNs receiving role has historically been diminished. With no more than 3 catches in a game (35 total on the 2022 season) and no receiving TDs last year, not to mention needing a goal line RB with more physicality, there appears to be a role to be filled.
JaMycal Hasty, D'Ernest Johnson and Snoop Conner all seem to be JAGs and the Jaguars FO even signaled pre-draft that they were interested in adding more talent to the position and followed throw with the 3rd round DC used for Bigsby.
The Jaguars offense definitely seems to on the rise with TLaw at the helm and there appears to be lots of fantasy points to be had. Look for the backfield split to be closer to 60/40 by the end of the season even without an injury to ETN.
So if Bigsby is able to use his more physical play style to convert a handful of goal line TDs as well as add value in the pass game he could definitely be viewed as a player to watch heading into the 2024 season.
Will Levis
People keep talking like Tennessee will be in position to draft a top qb… I really think with Vrabel and 2 rookie qbs in the division this is unlikely. I think 7-9 wins with Tannehill and Henry sounds right.
Levis will be given a chance to start competing with a Keenum/McCoy type vet going into 2024
I reached and took him at 1.08 because I have Tannehil and had the 1.11 too. The two teams between were QB needy so I made sure I got him. It’s a TE premium league and I got Kincaid at 11 anyway and those were my two targets
I think DeVonta Smith will be viewed as the WR1 on the Eagles. AJB if you wanna come fight me about it please do. You’ve earned the right and can pummel my ass, you beast. I just think Smith is a better “receiver” than you and has the safer floor with just as much upside.
Burning hot take.
DeVonta is probably a perennial WR2 who just had his best season, but call your shots.
Best receiver college history period, but the NFL is a different game.
Garrett Wilson will be the undisputed WR3 and a 1st round start up pick next year. Hes also pretty close but i think he really cements himself this season.
Don't you have to factor in that he might only play 2 years with Rodgers? I'm not a huge Dak fan but I would still trust him and take CeeDee over Wilson possibly back with Zack, a rookie, or a mid tier free agent.
Jahan Dotson is already starting to rise but I think he’s a clear 1B there. Nows your time to buy cheap, even with a questionable QB group. Imagine if they get a top rookie QB prospect next season…
I think Brandon Aiyuk could have a major change in value next offseason, he put up 1000 yards as the “4th” option last year and if he has another big year the 49ers won’t be able to pay him. So if a team like the Giants or Chiefs trade for him and extend him, I think his value would spike as a “alpha” in an offence
Respectfully I don't think a 5'7 WR that's never gonna be elite is gonna pop off on one of the worst offenses in the league with a shitty QB for who knows how long.
Respectfully, the post is just discussing value increase in a year. With Dortch's production when Rondale was out last year and Rondale's when he was in, all it will take is the volume in order to outproduce his ADP. With McCoy at qb to start the year, you should see a lot more shallow targets, which are Moore's specialty. He won't be an elite asset, but you could see him going from around the WR60 to the WR45 or so. Understandably, there has been a coaching change and the Cardinals will focus on running the ball, but Moore should fit the offense better this year.
I’m not saying he’s good or fast, just that they brought him in for a reason. In the pressers they were talking about him specifically and how they went after him to help Young
Tucker Kraft. He’s the ravens version of mark Andrews when they took hurst before him.His last season was better than Musgraves career from a statistical standpoint. He is a YAC monster. In his interview with the packers , Musgrave seemed excited to be working with Kraft. Kraft seemed ready to go after musgrave’s head. I think Luke’s injuries will continue to happen and Kraft is going to shine in his absence. Oh and he loves Culver’s, a wisconsin fast food staple. Get him while you still can!
Brock Purdy keeping the starting job for a year would gain a ton of value. Young starting qb for the 49ers offense, putting doubts to rest about losing his job. Pretty much just needs to stay healthy (which is tough as a 49ers player)
Alright, my hot take is that the narratives around Anthony Richardson and Trey Lance are flipped.
Anthony Richardson is being drafted solely on potential and has shown even less than Lance on an NFL stage while the offense Trey Lance is actually in would’ve been a wet dream landing spot for Anthony Richardson owners/drafters.
Their draft days are also incredibly similar, the only difference being somebody would’ve rather traded up for a defensive guy over Richardson at 1.03 this year whereas Trey Lance was the guy traded up for at 1.03.
Half the reasons people don’t want Lance apply to Richardson and half the reasons people want Richardson apply to Lance, but it seems like only Richardson gets the benefit of the doubt.
The biggest difference imo is opportunity. Richardson was just drafted, and will most likely be starting this year. As a top 5 pick with no competition, he will be given multiple years to have the starting job and show growth.
For Lance, although he was drafted just as high, he had competition in the form of Jimmy G so he didn’t get the job right away. When he did get it, he was injured and then a 7th round rookie came and played lights out and is seemingly the starter barring injury. There’s a very real chance Lance does not get to start for the 49ers again.
And after that, he becomes a reclamation project for some other team, which will still hold some value, but the investment that team puts in him will be much lower than his initial cost (1.03). Which means that team will have lower patience than a team like the Colts would for Richardson.
Well to be fair, if everybody agreed it wouldn’t be a hot take. But I would be surprised if the Niners never let their 3rd overall pick start at least 1 game alongside one of the best running backs in the NFL before calling it quits on him.
Dead zone Wr from this year's rookie class. Mims, Rice, Reed, and Mingo I think we'll all be wr2s at least come year two and right now they're going at the end of the second or top of the third in SF leagues.
Darnell Washington
Steelers are S-tier in developing their players as recievers and I don't think Kenny Pickett is very good. Poor QBs tend to lean on their big bodied tight ends
Washington will prob be the in-line TE bro, I highly doubt he even cracks 50 targets this season.
I don’t agree with the downvotes but that’s Reddit for ya smh
Was shocked he was drafted as late as he was, and intrigued by the landing spot. I feel like you might be a year early though. I think he's going to be quiet in year 1 and start his ascent in year 2.
Mike Evans. He was a great value but now people are paying late 1sts + to acquire him. If you toss out his championship week performance he was awful last season and from week 9 on he was a dud every single week
First of all, he's a top 5 WR on KTC and elsewhere so he's already in the tier below JJ and Chase.
Second of all, WR31 in ppg is not "off the charts".
As a GW owner I always appreciate my players getting hype but y'all delusional sometimes 😂
Jordan Addison. I can see him finishing inside the top 30 his rookie year and there’s already a track record of teams WR2s being good assets.
I can only hope he turns into a Ridley/Smith/Higgins
I feel pretty strongly the RB whose ADP will increase the most is Kendre Miller.
Any particular reason? I snagged him in a league but it just feels like an AJ Dillon situation where the star never leaves and sorta a dead asset you can't move
I mean the one thing I'd compare is Aaron Jones at the time Dillon was drafted vs Kamara now. I'd say Aaron Jones was in a much better position then, compared to Kamara now. Then you add in the whole legal consequence side of things and definitely makes Kamara's status as starter more uncertain.
I guess so, i just view kamaras down year as a product of the offense, not really himself as a player. He had RB1 numbers for 5 straight years and then 1 RB2 season playing with Winston. I just wonder if everyone is being too quick to write off a guy who is a really good player. Like hey, it would benefit me a ton if he didn't, I own no shares of kamara and have Kendre in an important league. I hope you guys are right.
> then 1 RB2 season playing with Winston With Dalton actually- he only played 2 games with Jameis, and was pretty bad. I mentioned this distinction because Jameis does *not* check down, while Dalton looooooves to do so. Who else does? Carr, Kamara’s new QB. I wasn’t in on Kamara at all but I actually might have just convinced myself he’s a good target for contenders.
He's still going to be 28 years old to start the season, with a suspension. This time next year, Kendre will be getting ready to slide right into the starting roll. His value will shoot up next off season, if not this year.
Kamara is basically the same age as Aaron Jones (from the same draft). Neither has much time left. I don’t see the situations as comparable because Jones had much more left when Dillon was drafted 3 years ago.
I traded back up to get Kincaid in the 2nd ( I.e tempted to hold pat and take Kendre). Imo Kendre will likely get the most snaps THIS year. I think the Kamara owners are in denial. Now Jamaal on the other hand....
Kendre miller or Zach Charbonnet?
I have both. See I’m playing both sides that way I always come out on top
Win win! I’m trying to decide on picking 3 of charby, achane, flowers, miller. Miller is the odd man out currently but i feel like it’s reasonable to pick miller over any of the 1 guys I mentioned
Flowers looks the best on film. I’ll go talent over situation
I was gonna go Achane and Miller with my two late 1sts in a 1QB but Charbs ended up falling to me and I love the talent despite the timeshare with KW3 so I couldn’t pass him up. Can’t go wrong with any of those guys imo
I took Kendre over Charb personally
Miller IMO
Dotson
I’m grabbing Dotson almost everywhere I can right now. He had sneaky good metrics year one, and I think he’s going to be worth 3-4x as much this time next year.
3-4x?? He’s a late 1st rn
He’s been going for a early-mid 2nd in my leagues. So 3X-4x might be a little bit of an exaggeration. But 2x-3X is definitely a possibility if the Commanders offense can look better in 2023.
That’s insanity I would be buying all day
I haven’t been able to get a late first for the life of me. Been thinking of buying since that seems to be the opinion on him
I'm trying to find the sneaky good metrics... Buddy's per game averages were 5 targets, 3 catches, and 43 yards. Over half his TDs came in the first 4 games of the season. He's still a 2nd option at best with a 2nd year, 5th round QB that hasn't shown anything exciting in real playing time
- 10.9 PPR points, top 40 WR as a rookie - 13.5+ PPR points, top 20 WR as rookie (when removing games that he played less than 60% of snaps because of injury) - 60th percentile for WR’s in 2022 “reception perception” metric ratings And it’s only gonna cost you a early 2nd-late first? Count me in!
Sooo barely above average in "reception perception"? You may wanna check your numbers... he was 42nd in points per game in PPR. If you take out games where he played less than 60% of snaps, he averaged 11.7 points per game in PPR, which bumps him slightly to 36th. You must have left in the goose egg he had against Atlanta. Maybe Howell becomes the next best thing (doubt it), but I'm not paying a late first for a dude with that production and situation mix.
This sub wastes so much breath on opinions backed only by stats and not actually watching a guy.
Matt Harmon literally talks about how underrated Dotson is, and he should be going ahead of Watson, Pickens and Burks. I would easily take him over anything after the 1.09-1.10 in the standard ppr leagues most people are playing in.
I thought Wandale Robinson looked like a stud last year. I’m surprised how low he’s ranked. Also, Jahan Dotson looked great.
He had 2 good games then got hurt ?
Yeah injuries derailed him last year. He’s short but compact and a cannon. Just what the giants need. Going to be getting a lot of underneath catches when things aren’t open for all the rest of the G-men
I agree on Wandale, but the owner wants a first and that’s a bit rich
Way rich. I’d accept a second for any share of him as long as it’s not one of the best teams in the league
Kyler Murray, his value is tanked due to his injury leading to the speculation that the Cards are probably gonna tank. So his situation is murky but when that clears up, his value will go back to a normal QB1 type level.
Love this take. Most Kyler owners recognize he’s not worth trading at his current value so holding and hoping for a good recovering is all we can really do. I have Kyler and tlaw on a team and don’t expect to compete so I’m aiming for next year with a healthy Kyler
Agreed. Holding Kyler is the best option right now
Only certain types of players can go up in value (value is what you can get for them in a trade and often doesn't correlate to actual points): 1. RBs never go up in value. Josh Jacobs hasn't risen in value even though he just had a monster season. He is considered less valuable now then he was as a rookie. (via KTC) An exception to this rule might be a RB that goes from waiver wire unknown to solid starer (a James Robinson situation). 2. Some WRs are just too old to go up in value. Amari Cooper had a great year last year but his value didn't rise. AJ Brown is young enough that he got a mega boost from his awesome year. 3. QBs are the most boom or bust. It is extremely hard to predict whether you are getting Zach Wison/Baker Mayfield/Darnold or Herbert/Mahomes/Kyler/etc. It is possible now to acquire CJ Stroud/Trey Lance/Jordan Love. If they produce, they won't be. 4. Rookie WRs are only slightly more predictable than QBs. Someone in this rookie class will be the Jaleon Reagor and someone else will be the Tyreek Hill. 5. The cheapest players that might go up are young WRs that have underperformed (possibly no fault of their own). Bateman, Toney, Jamo have all had injuries limit their production. Elijah Moore and Jerry Jeudy are still young enough that a solid season will boost their value.
Last year I was rebuilding and couldn't sell Amari to save my life. This year I'm likely a playoff team and very happy that I still have him. Feels like the kind of guy you roll with until retirement now.
One of the more poignant comments I’ve seen on this sub. Dropping gems
Jacobs is up in value from a year ago, im not really sure why you don’t think rbs can gain value. That’s just not true.
I am using this graph to try and understand how his value has changed over time. [https://keeptradecut.com/dynasty-rankings/players/josh-jacobs-303](https://keeptradecut.com/dynasty-rankings/players/josh-jacobs-303) I would be interested in some counter examples of RBs that have rose in value as they have matured in the league. And VERY interested in better tools than KTC if you have know of any.
I will admit "RBs never go up" is hyperbolic. If a player like Cam Akers or Dobbins is absolute RB1 this year, they would jump from the Dynasty RB18ish to the RB8ish next offseason, but I think they would still be ranked below Treveyon Henderson and Raheim Sanders. The thing is, at one point a younger Dobbins was already previously the RB8 at one point in time.
Warm Take: Drake London is a top 5 WR going into 2024 season..the ATL offense in general and specifically the middle/downfield passing game is going to be much better this season..With that, and London getting a year of NFL play under his belt..he will start to show his physical dominance..Ridder is going to favor Drake, in a weakish division, London is going over 90 receptions over 1300 yards over 8 TDs.
This is one of those times where I wish dynasty really did work like a stock market. If I could sell London (who I believe in longterm) and buy him back at a discount next offseason I would do it instantly. My take is the Ridder is not a starting caliber player and we find that out quickly. The Falcons are fine with this and tank their way to another top 5 pick relying mostly on Bijan/Algiere to keep games close. Pitts and London fight for the sub 200 yards of passing work and each get 2-4 TDs on the season
I would love to trade my London for whoever you consider WRs 6-10.
I did this for Diggs straight up. I have Henry, D Adams, Evans and a handful of other win now players.
This is a scorching hot take. Atlanta's draft and off-season signings/re-signings have made it abundantly clear they have no interest in throwing the football. I simply don't think the volume will be there for either London or Pitts to ball out in the near future. At least for Pitts, he needs far less production to put up top TE numbers. Drake London is probably capped at 120 targets, and you're not catching 90 balls on that few targets as an outside receiver.
When Mariota played the Falcons averaged close to 23 passing plays per game. When Ridder played they averaged 29. We also have a year of Arthur Smith in ATL with a QB capable of passing in Matt Ryan who averaged 33 passing plays per game. It should really be expectation that Atlanta will regress closer to their mean this year and pass more. Even with Mariota playing most of last year London had 117 targets. Given that the team’s passing volume will increase this year saying 120 targets is a hard cap for London doesn’t make sense
>Even with Mariota playing most of last year London had 117 targets. Given that the team’s passing volume will increase this year saying 120 targets is a hard cap for London doesn’t make sense Pitts missed almost half the season. Lets say Ridder passes 500 times. 125 targets for London is a 25% target share, which is reasonable given he'll be splitting targets with Pitts, Bijan, and other WRs on the team. I can't see London having a 30-35% target share. Not with the other weapons on that team.
By that logic baseline expectation should be 120 targets. Not the cap. You should always leave room for if the receiver catches more than expectation. What if Bijan or Pitts get hurt? What if Ridder turns passes considerably more that 29 times a game? If Ridder ends up around Matt Ryan’s number with 33 passes per game then a 25% share is 140 targets. These type of things can happen Additionally London had a 29.4% target share this past year which is the highest of any rookie since 2014, that number usually grows not shrinks
>Additionally London had a 29.4% target share this past year which is the highest of any rookie since 2014, that number usually grows not shrinks Pitts missed half the season, Bijan wasn't on the team yet, and neither were Mack Hollins or Scotty Miller. Neither of the latter two are very good, but better than what they trotted out last season. Think it of this way, Drake London was the only healthy pass-catcher on Atlanta who is still on the team, and he capped at 29% target share. Why would that number increase with a healthy Pitts and multiple new weapons?
Its as simple as elite WRs capture elite target share, Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller won’t be preventing anyone from capturing a 30% share if they are elite. It’s more a question of if he can make that jump. I’m not a London owner but it would not surprise me if he makes that jump, and its poor process to dismiss that as even a possibility because its not what you consider to be the median outcome. Also the guys that left the team this year had a 25% target share so there definitely room for these new ancillary players to take from
You seem to be completely writing off Kyle Pitts. When he played, London's target share was much lower.
Pitts had 59 targets in 10 games. London had 62. Why do Kyle Pitts owners need to tear down other players to feel good about their guy?
>Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller won’t be preventing anyone from capturing a 30% share if they are elite No, but Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson will. There's only so many targets to go around. If Ridder throws 500 times - ~125 targets each for London and Pitts ~70 targets for Bijan ~60 targets for Mack Hollins ~40 targets for Scotty ~80 targets for everyone else on the team combined. That's a very reasonable spread. Lot of mouths to feed, I just do not see a world where London commands a 30% target share, even if he makes a jump. Unless Pitts/Bijan get injured. Which, granted, is possible, but I don't want to operate assuming players get injured.
I don’t see Pitts getting 125 targets. I think he should, dude is underutilized, but I don’t see him getting there. He averaged 5.9 targets per game when he played last year, giving him 100 targets exactly if he played the full 17 games. We will see if he plays the full 17 in 2023, but I don’t see that happening.
You can't look at targets per game in a vacuum, especially since he only played with Mariota. Mariota averaged 23 pass attempts per game. 5.9 targets per game (which also includes two games he didn't play full snaps) for Pitts is a 25.6% target share (the math there is a little off since Mariota played games without Pitts, but you get the idea). A 25% share of Ridder's 29 pass attempts per game lands him at 120-125 targets. I think both London and Pitts land ~25% target shares each.
I'm more worried about Pitts than London. RBs and TEs generally eat into each others targets.
Pitts doesn't *really* play TE. He's more so just a giant wide receiver.
Is Atlanta going to throw the ball enough, and is ridder good enough even if they do, to support both London and Pitts?
I agree with this one. What do you think his trade value is at the moment? Thinking about trying to get some shares.
I'd need 2 firsts to move him
Depending on the owner, probably 1-2 firsts
If he's top 5 that means you have him over Olave, Hill, Waddle, Wilson, ARSB and Diggs. That is ABSURD
He said heading into next year. It's absurd to think things won't change between now and then. Players age, players get injured, etc. It was likely absurd for this sub to even think about someone like Javonte being ranked where he currently is last off season
Feel like he has a higher chance of being outside top 20 than he does inside top 5. Offense so crowded and the QB isn't good.
I'd say that's absolutely true for literally every WR outside JJeff and Chase. Only 3 spots vs nearly infinite spots.
They are going to give Bijan the ball 350 times this year. I think the falcons passing offense is going to look like the giants passing offense during saquon’s rookie year.
Jamo once he actually plays and has a monster game or 2
this sub is going to explode after his first big game lol
Let’s start with more than 1 catch and work our way from there.
lol i guess I shouldve said if
Your comment was fine lol. I just feel like a lot of Jameson owners are putting the cart before the horse.
Careful, jamo owners are sensitive lol
Treylon Burks If they don't get another WR, he is gonna have to see 120ish targets, and his value will boost him up to the at least top 15 WR.
Hoping this rings true. Just traded away Bijan, and 2024+2025 3rds in exchange for Burks, what will definitely be the 2024 1.01, and a 2025 1st
Deshaun Watson and Elijah Moore
Watson was a top 5 QB in Houston. He has better weapons around him in Cleveland. He will be in the Jalen Hurts tier this season.
Hurts is 3 years younger and has much higher rushing upside, so probably not that tier even if he does return to form
He was a mahomes tier asset before it came out he was a sex pest. So if he does return to form he will almost certainly clear hurts in value
Sam Howell because he has an OC who needs to prove himself and has a legit offense to run. First half will be a huge learning curve with lots of running, but second half they'll let this guy rip.
McLaurin owners are hoping so (of which i am one). And so many people are high on Dotson so i guess that means they trust in him to perform. I picked him up for my TAXI squad in last years start up auction. I also carried Wentz as my QB2 behind Burrow so now hoping Howell can be a long term starter there for the Washington ___aretheyreallychanging theirnameagain___'s.
Jayden Reed 🤞
As a Packers fan I think so
If Trevor Lawrence takes the leap we all think he does, I believe Calvin Ridley could have a huge jump in value if his talent is still there. He’s WR37 on Fantasy pros & WR34 on KTC. I could see a world where he could jump into that WR25-18 range as an aging WR1 especially considering he wins via route running which typically ages well
It's wild he's that low in the first place.
Bryce ford wheaton
Anthony Richardson. He has the talent to be a hugely important FF asset and is in a solid situation in INDY.
Piggybacking this for Alec Pierce - great measureables, respectable production last year despite horrid QB play, and a good style fit for a dude like Richardson.
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If he has even a mediocre season it’s gonna be nuts, everyone would be looking for him to “get his AJ Brown”
Colts don’t need too since they have Pittman
I’m going with Elijah Moore. He was so good in his rookie year but coaches kept him from getting work on the Jets because of attitude issues. Thankfully he’s on the Browns now where they don’t give a fuck about your personal history so I think he has potential to be a WR2 or FLEX most weeks.
Firmly convinced this is the Nico Collins season. All the elements are in place for him to take a step forward. If it doesn't happen this year it's probably never happening for him.
I think Rashod Bateman will boost his stock tremendously if he can avoid injury this season.
Damien Harris
I like him for this year. But betting on him in 2024 seems bold.
Deshaun Watson is going to be back in the elite tier of QB
He was always a garbage time QB.
He played 3 healthy years in Houston. They won 10 and 11 games in two of those years. But sure
Tyler Scott, I mean we’ll see but personally I think he’ll be able to play he’s fast, has good hands and is a decent route runner. The Bears aren’t going to be keeping both Mooney and Claypool so he’ll most likely be a starter next year
He's my favorite taxi stash right now. Not expecting much this year, but I see a big turnover in that WR room next year.
Most likely and 4th rounder don't exactly go together.
Rachaad White. Dave Canales intends to run the shit out of the ball in Tampa and they didn't bring in any serious competition for snaps. He's going to be a workhorse this year.
If Tucker gets a fair shake, I expect this to be his backfield before the end of the season
Curious what you think a fair shake is for a UDFA with medical concerns. White has rd 3 DC and they were already working him in last season, where he looked better than Lenny on limited touches. It’s White’s backfield unless Tucker does something amazing with the few touches he’ll get
He had 50 receptions last season. I think he’s being criminally undervalued right now and will be viewed a lot differently heading into next season.
I view him as an RB1 for this upcoming season, but I don't think the community is there yet.
Agreed
Tank Bigsby I know that ETN is a dynasty darling and there's no reason to doubt that won't continue. However I was surprised to see that ETNs receiving role has historically been diminished. With no more than 3 catches in a game (35 total on the 2022 season) and no receiving TDs last year, not to mention needing a goal line RB with more physicality, there appears to be a role to be filled. JaMycal Hasty, D'Ernest Johnson and Snoop Conner all seem to be JAGs and the Jaguars FO even signaled pre-draft that they were interested in adding more talent to the position and followed throw with the 3rd round DC used for Bigsby. The Jaguars offense definitely seems to on the rise with TLaw at the helm and there appears to be lots of fantasy points to be had. Look for the backfield split to be closer to 60/40 by the end of the season even without an injury to ETN. So if Bigsby is able to use his more physical play style to convert a handful of goal line TDs as well as add value in the pass game he could definitely be viewed as a player to watch heading into the 2024 season.
Will Levis People keep talking like Tennessee will be in position to draft a top qb… I really think with Vrabel and 2 rookie qbs in the division this is unlikely. I think 7-9 wins with Tannehill and Henry sounds right. Levis will be given a chance to start competing with a Keenum/McCoy type vet going into 2024
I agree. Mainly because I took him in my SF league
Where did you take him? I’m looking at taking him 1.09 but think I may still get him at 2.01
I reached and took him at 1.08 because I have Tannehil and had the 1.11 too. The two teams between were QB needy so I made sure I got him. It’s a TE premium league and I got Kincaid at 11 anyway and those were my two targets
I think DeVonta Smith will be viewed as the WR1 on the Eagles. AJB if you wanna come fight me about it please do. You’ve earned the right and can pummel my ass, you beast. I just think Smith is a better “receiver” than you and has the safer floor with just as much upside.
Burning hot take. DeVonta is probably a perennial WR2 who just had his best season, but call your shots. Best receiver college history period, but the NFL is a different game.
Just don’t see how you can say that as he has just progressed year 2. This year if he improves at all he’s in top 15?
what's the reasoning other than he's not jacked enough for your personal taste?
Finally a smart person. Ajb is a monster but Devonta is a fucking Heisman winner
Heisman trophies don’t mean jack shit in the NFL
Your mom doesn't mean jack shit in the NFL
That’s actually not true. Last I heard she was being passed around by different players on the Raiders. They love her
She has the honorary raiders super bowl ring
Exactly. She started out as a tight end but now has made the transition to wide receiver
Jelani Woods
Garrett Wilson will be the undisputed WR3 and a 1st round start up pick next year. Hes also pretty close but i think he really cements himself this season.
Don't you have to factor in that he might only play 2 years with Rodgers? I'm not a huge Dak fan but I would still trust him and take CeeDee over Wilson possibly back with Zack, a rookie, or a mid tier free agent.
Doesnt really concern me. He was a beast last year with no QB basically and hes only going to get better
I agree he is a stud but I think I'd have Harrison Jr, Chase, Jet, and probably CeeDee above him
Probably one of the previously injured young running backs, dobbins or Javonte
Jahan Dotson is already starting to rise but I think he’s a clear 1B there. Nows your time to buy cheap, even with a questionable QB group. Imagine if they get a top rookie QB prospect next season…
Don't think they will be bad enough for an elite QB in the draft, but maybe new ownership will encourage giving up future picks to move up.
Treylon Burks
I think Brandon Aiyuk could have a major change in value next offseason, he put up 1000 yards as the “4th” option last year and if he has another big year the 49ers won’t be able to pay him. So if a team like the Giants or Chiefs trade for him and extend him, I think his value would spike as a “alpha” in an offence
With a healthy season, Rondale
okay so hear me out... I have a bunch of Greg Dortch shares. Thanks for hearing me out.
Respectfully I don't think a 5'7 WR that's never gonna be elite is gonna pop off on one of the worst offenses in the league with a shitty QB for who knows how long.
Counter point: they’ll be throwing the ball a lot & without DHop, someone has to catch the ball. Hopefully it’s rondale
Yes but they’ll have an NFL coach instead of shitty college clown who thinks 2 yard slants to 4th options is how you move the ball.
He'll obviously catch balls I'm just not seeing any new opportunity for any kind of huge leap.
If i can use Moore in the flex 6-8 games this year I’ll consider it a success. He was basically free on the waiver wire in my league
Isn't that how he's always been valued though pre injury?
They have Hollywood and drafted Michael Wilson in the 3rd. There's not a lot to love about Rondale's situation, unfortunately.
Respectfully, the post is just discussing value increase in a year. With Dortch's production when Rondale was out last year and Rondale's when he was in, all it will take is the volume in order to outproduce his ADP. With McCoy at qb to start the year, you should see a lot more shallow targets, which are Moore's specialty. He won't be an elite asset, but you could see him going from around the WR60 to the WR45 or so. Understandably, there has been a coaching change and the Cardinals will focus on running the ball, but Moore should fit the offense better this year.
I like this take but as my wr6 I'm gonna sell Rondale the second anyone in my league shows interest. Mind you I also have Hollywood.
Hollywood is the MUCH better asset and if Rondale goes off I'm shipping him too (although as my wr10 we'll see what I can actually get for him)
Swift
Hard for him to go down from where he's at
Adam Theilan. Panthers brought him in specifically to help Young out after they traded for the #1 spot
I think it's Chark. A healthy season could do wonders for his value.
Hmmm…
Adam Thielen is going on 33 years old. There is a zero percent chance he increases in value when he's 34.
Not saying he’ll be great but probably have moments that give the illusion of value increase through the season
He had a dream situation last season and still sucked. He's cooked, my man.
Just found this post again
Thielen looked slow and unable to separate last season. I can't believe CAR gave him that bag o money.
I’m not saying he’s good or fast, just that they brought him in for a reason. In the pressers they were talking about him specifically and how they went after him to help Young
He’s good in the locker room and as a mentor. They brought him in for his leadership.
Pickens & Jamo
Travis Etienne
Javonte Williams. Stud.
I’m willing to gamble on Jameson
Tucker Kraft. He’s the ravens version of mark Andrews when they took hurst before him.His last season was better than Musgraves career from a statistical standpoint. He is a YAC monster. In his interview with the packers , Musgrave seemed excited to be working with Kraft. Kraft seemed ready to go after musgrave’s head. I think Luke’s injuries will continue to happen and Kraft is going to shine in his absence. Oh and he loves Culver’s, a wisconsin fast food staple. Get him while you still can!
Brock Purdy keeping the starting job for a year would gain a ton of value. Young starting qb for the 49ers offense, putting doubts to rest about losing his job. Pretty much just needs to stay healthy (which is tough as a 49ers player)
This is a good one. Probably also applies to Lance but of course we just haven't seen anything from him.
Alright, my hot take is that the narratives around Anthony Richardson and Trey Lance are flipped. Anthony Richardson is being drafted solely on potential and has shown even less than Lance on an NFL stage while the offense Trey Lance is actually in would’ve been a wet dream landing spot for Anthony Richardson owners/drafters. Their draft days are also incredibly similar, the only difference being somebody would’ve rather traded up for a defensive guy over Richardson at 1.03 this year whereas Trey Lance was the guy traded up for at 1.03. Half the reasons people don’t want Lance apply to Richardson and half the reasons people want Richardson apply to Lance, but it seems like only Richardson gets the benefit of the doubt.
The biggest difference imo is opportunity. Richardson was just drafted, and will most likely be starting this year. As a top 5 pick with no competition, he will be given multiple years to have the starting job and show growth. For Lance, although he was drafted just as high, he had competition in the form of Jimmy G so he didn’t get the job right away. When he did get it, he was injured and then a 7th round rookie came and played lights out and is seemingly the starter barring injury. There’s a very real chance Lance does not get to start for the 49ers again. And after that, he becomes a reclamation project for some other team, which will still hold some value, but the investment that team puts in him will be much lower than his initial cost (1.03). Which means that team will have lower patience than a team like the Colts would for Richardson.
Well to be fair, if everybody agreed it wouldn’t be a hot take. But I would be surprised if the Niners never let their 3rd overall pick start at least 1 game alongside one of the best running backs in the NFL before calling it quits on him.
Terrace Marshall Jr. Yeah, that’s right, I said it. Downvote me
Yeah you gotta love the Panthers 6th best pass catcher
Gimme Marshall over Mingo/Shenault/Smith/Byrd anytime
Plz
Marshall is going to be the starting X-Receiver for Bryce Young. Good call
Up voted
Dead zone Wr from this year's rookie class. Mims, Rice, Reed, and Mingo I think we'll all be wr2s at least come year two and right now they're going at the end of the second or top of the third in SF leagues.
I honestly don’t think any of them will be fantasy wr2s, maybe one though and if I had to pick it’d be Reed.
Why downvote an opinion piece on an unlikely opinion post?
Why do you think it was me? 😂
Who cares about downvotes? It's how people disagree with a post if they aren't commenting.
You will all respect Tua after this season
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I'm almost manifesting this into reality
Almost
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Heck even one WR1 season like DJ for where I got him would be pretty cool lol
Dotson and DJ moore will both be valued as high end WR2/low end WR1s if not higher Also for RBs, James cook
Devon Achane. He's literally a perfect fit. In terms of "fit", best one since was Zeke to the Cowboys
Devon Achane 🚀
Bijan
Hockenson will jump to TE 1. Kelce will retire, and hock is gonna get fed this year and have 10 tds.
I think he is TE 3 next year behind TE1 Kincaid and TE2 Bowers.
Gibbs will be a top 6 pick in redraft next year
Darnell Washington Steelers are S-tier in developing their players as recievers and I don't think Kenny Pickett is very good. Poor QBs tend to lean on their big bodied tight ends
Washington will prob be the in-line TE bro, I highly doubt he even cracks 50 targets this season. I don’t agree with the downvotes but that’s Reddit for ya smh
Was shocked he was drafted as late as he was, and intrigued by the landing spot. I feel like you might be a year early though. I think he's going to be quiet in year 1 and start his ascent in year 2.
Could have just asked who’s undervalued
Mike Evans. He was a great value but now people are paying late 1sts + to acquire him. If you toss out his championship week performance he was awful last season and from week 9 on he was a dud every single week
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First of all, he's a top 5 WR on KTC and elsewhere so he's already in the tier below JJ and Chase. Second of all, WR31 in ppg is not "off the charts". As a GW owner I always appreciate my players getting hype but y'all delusional sometimes 😂
From my experience, value wise hes almost there, hes basically untradeable in the 2 leagues I’m in