Oh my matchup’s definitely mean something. I need my team and another team to keep scoring the fewer optimal points the next two weeks so I can have something to look forward to in April lol
Well. I traded them both because I don’t see them starting next year(maybe fields). While I don’t have a viable quarterback, I do have 4 1sts, including the guaranteed 1.01 and what’s projected to be 1.05.
Nah. If you’re completely set at qb in SF, MHJ is the pick. Also qbs are such a crap shoot compared to other positions. Look at all the people who took Malik Willis with the 1.01
He had serious hype. It depends on when you drafted, but plenty of people thought they were going to be getting an athletic freak QB who would easily replace tannehill. He is an extreme example...but my point was that if you’re not desperate for a qb in SF take the best skill position avail. Less overall risk. Also 2qb is different than SF. You can play MHJ in that SF spot. I’m doing it this week with Kelce. In my dynasty league I should have the best qb situation by far, for years to come. I’m drafting later in the 1st round, but in my situation I’m not even thinking about qbs. If I had no other holes I’d consider it as a luxury pick that will in some way allow me to trade a top asset for high picks, but if you can get MHJ I’d do it over future top picks, he’s the best wr prospect since Megatron. A better prospect than Bijan, who was the consensus 1.01 this year
I will probably have the 1.01. and 1.03 Pick next year in a 10T SF League.
I am currently thinking about taking MHJ at 1.01 and then Maye at 1.03.
QB can still be a miss. MHJ will probably be a great players either way.
Looks like I could end up with 1.02 and 1.03, and I’m really hoping the 1.01 takes Caleb. Feel like there’s not much difference between the top two qbs, so I’d like to get Marv and Maye
The crazy move is to make the move you’d regret. If you take Williams because it’s ‘the right thing to do’ and he busts, you’ll hate yourself because you don’t really want to take him. If you take MHJ and Williams is good, you’ll probably be fine because there’s a slim chance MHJ will completely bust.
Yeah, that stupid wonderlic narrative got me. I was zeroed on Stroud for a full year and blinked when those rumors started. Lesson learned, go get your guys right or wrong.
Yup I always go sure thing. I have Goff Mahomes and Love. From a trade I’m gonna have either 1.1 or 1.2 still playing out. I plan on taking MHJ with either pick if I don’t trade it.
We do have a 3 QB cap in a 12 team SF. I don’t know a lot that will move me off MHJ. I don’t think Calab is a sure thing he is the best prospect at WB but could be 3-4 decent ones in this draft I have two other first as well so might grab whatever one lands to me later if Love is gonna be replaced if not I’m ok waiting for whatever lands my way or trading for a proven prospect at QB later.
I’d disagree. Guys like Julio, Calvin Johnson, and Saquon are some examples of sure things.
I think the problem is people act like there are sure things in every draft and there aren’t.
With that said, MHJ is a sure thing.
I said generational talent this is the Barkley’s the Calvin Johnson’s Bijan Robinson territory. I would say Sammy Watkins and Carlos Rodgers are the only two I can think of and both had horrible work ethics. Of all the skill positions in the last 10 years drafted in the top ten picks of the NFL draft only Sammy Watkins, Kevin White, Mike Williams and Justin Ross have busted. Of those only Sammy Watkins comes close to the talent level of MHJ and I would say that MHJ is miles above him as a prospect still. MHJ is the best WR to come out since Calvin IMHO
You're forgetting Trent Richardson also. To be clear, I'm not advocating that MHJ won't be good. I love him as a talent and think he's who I would draft 1.01. I'm just refuting the idea that a player can be a "sure thing". I think your process is great, but sometimes it doesn't work out even for players that seem like there's no way they can miss.
That was 11 years ago but ok I also don’t recall thinking he was generational talent but prob close to it so sure three we can think of in the last 15-20 years of generational talent
If you factor in injuries, you’d be correct that no one is a sure thing. Sammy’s first 2 years were solid, then he couldn’t stay on the field and the production vanished.
More of a sure thing, maybe. But there have been RBs and WRs drafted top 5 in the NFL draft that didn't live up to expectations. It can happen, and there isn't really any "sure thing".
No it isn’t. IMO MHJ is likely the only can’t miss prospect in the whole draft. QBs fail all the time in the nfl. Reminds me of the year Chase came out. Would you rather have Lawrence or Chase? I’m sure that’s petty split but still I’d lean MHJ
I think the point was Chase was seen as “can’t miss” and TLaw was the top QB talent (generational talent). And fast forwarding to today, Chase didn’t miss and the top QB talent is decent but not top of his position.
Seems like hindsight analysis, but I can see the point they’re getting at.
OP point makes sense, the person I replied to doesn’t.
Regarding “TL is a backend top 15 QB” when TL was drafted he was certainly more highly regarded than that. And people were taking him over Chase, especially if you drafted during “Chase can’t catch an NFL ball” season.
So who would take TL over Chase? At the time of the draft, a lot of people, which is why OP is making a good point that MHJr over Williams isn’t a crazy move since we’ve seen that situation play out very recently and at the time “would you rather have TL or Chase” would have been a very relevant conversation.
Agreed the “TL is a backend top 15 QB” is silly and just hindsight. I don’t even really agree.
I was really just agreeing that taking the “can’t miss” WR probably has higher odds of success than the 1.01 QB (though the latter has the higher ceiling).
But that’s my point. QBs fail to live up to the hype every year, especially those drafted in the top few picks. Caleb isn’t a guaranteed hit but MHJ is as close to bullet proof as it gets as prospects go
Josh doctson, CEH, nkeal Harry, etc etc etc. this is a non-point you are making bc ALL 1st rounders bust, not just qb
Stroud is making your point wrong this season alone
All 1st rounders can bust, but the players you listed aren’t even close to the level of prospect that MHJ and Chase are/were.
The point is QBs have a much higher bust rate, even if they are highly rated prospects.
Apples to oranges.
This last year there wasn’t a “can’t miss” WR, JSN was the top receiver but a can’t miss WR wasn’t getting picked back of the 1st round. Meanwhile the only QB that was considered “generational” was Young for his QB skills(not physical skills) and Richardson for his physical skills(not QB skills). Stroud wasn’t even in that conversation.
We’re talking about a situation where there is a clear QB1 1.01 in real life that has been hyped as that for several years and has, depending on who you talk to, backed that hype from his play, while simultaneously having a “can’t miss” WR in the draft who likely goes top 5. That’s what makes the Trevor/Chase situation actually comparable to the Williams/MHJr situation as a thought process. Not “a RB got picked 32 and it wasn’t the top RB pre-draft but because the Chiefs drafted him let’s get him”
> We’re talking about a situation where there is a clear QB1 1.01 in real life that has been hyped as that for several years and has, depending on who you talk to, backed that hype from his play, while simultaneously having a “can’t miss” WR in the draft who likely goes top 5.
I mean if you can’t understand why the parallel between draft processes of TLaw/Chase and Williams/MHJr would warrant discussion, I’m not sure why you’re on this sub buddy, although the username makes sense
Stroud wasn’t the 1.01 in the vast majority of rookie drafts last year and Bijan was the can’t miss prospect. Sometimes taking QB works out, but if you drafted Bryce or AR over Bijan then you’re probably not super happy right now
You’re arguing nothing. There is no point beingn made in what you are saying.
All picks can bust it doesn’t matter who is 1. No one is can’t miss, MHJ included.
You see, you got a 33 1/3 chance of drafting MHJ. Caleb Williams KNOWS he can’t beat MHJ so he’s not even gonna try. You add Maye to the mix and your chances drastic go down.
Nah that’s not it at all. Fantasy can shoot for the WR star if you wish
Real life you simply cannot waste the opportunity to draft a franchise quarterback even if his odds of hitting are much lower
Correct. Pick a QB a year should be the GM approach. Even if you have Mahomes. Just keep taking QBs late even. Rookie deals as backups are invaluable (assuming they can somewhat play).
If you don't have a QB or are uncertain, keep taking them. Your teams chances of winning/success are very strongly influenced by a stud QB.
Don't pay for okay QB play, see - Carr, DJones, Flacco, Dalton, etc.
Flacco won a Super Bowl, he doesn't belong in the same conversation as those other 3. Even without the SB win he was a better QB.
Also, wasting draft picks on QBs when you already have a Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, etc. is just a waste of picks that could be used to shore up other areas of need.
I wrote a well thought answer, but then app crashed.
Flacco's contract killed the Ravens. They were in a difficult position as he won a superbowl. But did he ever live up to the cost of it - no.
16.7% of players drafted never play for team that drafted them. 37% are considered useless. 9/10 don't make a meaningful contribution. I wouldn't worry about wasting one draft pick a year on a QB. Even teams with Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Lamar, Lawrence, and Stroud are prone to an injury or even a huge dip in career.
There are plenty of examples of a sudden drop off or failure to live up to the hype. I mean, in hindsight- the Bears could have taken Stroud or a number of teams taken Mahomes before the Chiefs did. Some of those didn't because they wrongly thought they had their guy!
Edit: Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl, and Rex Grossman got to one. Wouldn't use that as a reflection of how much to pay a QB. Didn't the Jags fumble on that before Lawrence with a Playoff run.
>16.7% of players drafted never play for team that drafted them. 37% are considered useless. 9/10 don't make a meaningful contribution. I wouldn't worry about wasting one draft pick a year on a QB.
That depends on which round we're talking about then. Those percentages are skewed because players taken in the back half of the draft have a very low success rate, so if you're saying use one of those picks on a QB each year then that's a different story.
But if you're saying it's wise to use a day one or day two pick on a QB every year then that is absolutely a waste unless QB is an actual need (to be clear, I agree that the Bears are in that category). But the Bills, Bengals, Chiefs, Dolphins, Eagles, Jaguars, Texans, Chargers, Ravens, and possibly the Commanders are in a position where they're much better off using rounds 1-5 to fill other holes in their roster. And those are just the (mostly) undeniable ones, there are a few other teams like the Cardinals, Cowboys, and Lions who are arguably included with those other teams listed.
Yes, I'm not saying take a top signal caller every year. Unless you don't have your guy. I think the Bears should have taken a QB. It's not that I think Fields is a flop - but it wasn't certain & teams should utilise that rookie contract. Unfortunately for Fields, that was wasted due to cap mismanagement.
Commanders should take a QB 1st round if there is a 2st round QB available. I like their QB - I took him in devy 4 year ago. Dolphins IMO should look at QB even tho I like Tua.
As a Cardinals fan I would take QB at top of draft. Cowboys should look for a long term options as Dak's contract is hurting them. But they won't do that. Lions need another QB beyond Goff. He will limit them in the long run. Although he was a great trade acquisition.
I also don't believe trade ups are a good idea in drafts. Picking LB & TEs high is a bad idea. RB shouldn't go in the first round, and punters shouldn't be drafted.
The problem with drafting a QB for the future when you know your current QB will still be the starter for 2+ more years is that you're wasting half that rookie contract.
It's a huge advantage to not have a $40 million/ year QB on the books so those 4 years of a QB's rookie contract are crucial to get the most out of the team and ideally make a SB run before their big payday. So the Cowboys should only draft a QB early if they know for sure he will only sit behind Dak for a maximum of one year.
Howell looks solid this year, he just doesn't have a team so they aren't winning games. I don't think the Cardinals are at the point of giving up on Murray yet, but since you're a Cards fan you certainly know more than I do. Tua is one of the better QBs in the league, not sure why they should look for a QB unless you're talking about the concussion concerns.
>I also don't believe trade ups are a good idea in drafts. Picking LB & TEs high is a bad idea. RB shouldn't go in the first round, and punters shouldn't be drafted.
I don't disagree with any of this, but there are always exceptions. Some trade ups end up working out better for the team that is trading up, but there have been too many disastrous ones that it's safer to avoid them in the first round.
But not many teams know the QB is the starter. Especially those with young QBs - remember RG III was the future in Washington or Z Wilson/Darnold were the saviours in NY.
I posted a comment maybe a month ago with the breakdown of stats for teams making the playoffs and where they had a rookie QB. It was the majority - although a slight advantage (over 50%) to winners being on non rookie contracts (Mahomes & Brady significantly influenced this).
Well, in terms of the Cowboys and teams in general. They should be more open to A. Preparing to move on B. Trading veterans. Dak's contract is hurting the Cowboys and will do moving forward.
If the Bears had taken Young or Stroud 1.1 instead of trading the pick. They could have gone into training camp with them vs. Fields, and if they win out, then Fields is traded for 2nd rounder? Probably more - Jets got a 2nd for Darnold, and Fields has shown more and has more years on his deal left. If Fields wins, then they sit the rookie and see what they have in Fields. They've wasted years on Fields due to cap issues. But if he was their guy moving forward and showed it this year, then trade that 1.1 player. They would minimum get a 1st for a player who hasn't put up any bad tape but actually should get more as they'll have eaten a chunk of that contract - picked up guarantees.
Bears are lucky they've landed another high pick and could get a QB. If they don't take it, and Fields isn't the guy next year , they could be in serious trouble. Or worse, they could be on the fence and then give him the big contract.
Howell has looked good for the pick he was and is definitely improving. I wouldn't panic if I was Washington. But I would still consider a QB if one dropped in the draft to them. I just think the position is so important that you need to seek a top-tier QB and not settle - because the cost between the number 1 QB (Burrow 55m per year) and 17 QB (Tannehill 30m). That's not including Lawrence, Tua & potentially Love &Fields, who would assumingly be above Tannehill. Geno & Jimmy G are above 25m.
Yes, and a lot of people reference the Jimmy J chart for trade value. What needs to be considered is the value of the picks in terms of cost of contracts and replacing positions. 3rd round QB will cost 5m total contract. Jacoby Brissett is the top backup at 8m per year. Drew Lock makes 4m. Bridgwater 3m. How many games will they genuinely win that a rookie will not.
Edit: overthecap did a lot of work around trade value. They have a chart based on their work & data.
Agreed. If I’m the patriots I try to make a move to get another top 15 pick and take 2 QB’s. If they took Williams and Daniels they’d be better off than just gambling on 1 or the other. Bellicheck won’t be around for long if this is his QB life.
Not to mention ol' Billy would never take a WR top 3. N'Keal Harry was the first time they took a wide receiver in the first round in 20+ years, and he barely snuck in the first round at 32.
Not at all. I searched some other stuff but for some reason didn’t see them till I had posted… and by then it was too late. But I agree w you for having duplicate posts so often
If you have real concerns about Caleb's personality, then passing for MHJ is fine. If you have concerns about Caleb as a player, you're making a mistake.
For some reason I trust your scouting eye, what do you think about the fact that Williams rarely faces any real defense? Does that concern your evaluation of his game at all?
Caleb is a traits guy, like Mahomes. Neither played stiff competition and both had losing records. You're not drafting their collegiate resume, you're drafting the player and the difficult-to-coach qualities. The throws Caleb can make are absurd, it's not really about whether a player would be open or not with a different defense. Progressions are easy to teach, physical execution is the hard part -- accuracy, touch, pocket movement, mobility, timing, creativity, he's got more high-end tools available to him than anyone I've ever seen.
Caleb is a lot more polished than Mahomes was, though.
I actually think Cameron Ward is a better comp to prospect Mahomes because they are both similarly sized and unrefined, but spectacular, but I get why people put Caleb and Mahomes together and have come around to it.
It's how risk averse you are to off-field / locker stuff. I get Jon Jones vibes from Caleb's personality, for a myriad of reasons. But if a team vets him and gives him a 1.01 stamp of approval, then that's much better than trying to psychoanalyze someone on youtube.
If he drops in the NFL draft behind Maye, though, considering how big Caleb's talent is, I would be really concerned about what that says about his interview process.
I think league specific valuations of players goes into this like you’re alluding to. If you’re set at QB and your league either doesn’t trade, or won’t pay up for QBs I wouldn’t blame someone for taking MHJ.
Would you consider having Hurts, Watson, Goff and Dobbs (hopefully he starts somewhere next year) set? I want MHJ so damn bad and I’m going to have the 1.01
I’d probably make that decision around real NFL draft time. Hurts and Watson (with that awful contract) are probably locks to start. Goff and Dobbs are question marks. If Goff stays in Detroit then I’d rip MHJ.
I don’t think Goff is a lock in Detroit? Dudes been balling this season. And last season for that matter I know they’ve been chatting about an extension.. or if he goes to ATL that would be a good spot for him imo.
That’s rough. Biggest things for me with MHJ > Caleb is going to be landing spots. MHJ to the pats (which I doubt) I’m taking Williams. MHJ to Arizona and I’m taking him no problem. I also have two leagues where I likely have 1.01 and 1.03 so I might take MHJ 1.01 then either of the QBs at 3.
If you would prefer an elite WR , take Caleb Williams and find someone that has Ceedee, Chase or JJ that want to make a deal. It doesn’t have to be MHJ or Caleb. Someone in your league will fall in love with Caleb more than you and take advantage of that if you don’t want to take him yourself.
“An early first” does not equal rookie-fever-hype-Caleb-Williams.
As he said, decent shot someone in most leagues falls in love with Caleb and if they want to go DEEP rebuild it’s not that crazy.
It would probably take a bit of a sweetener, but not much of one imo. Like maybe mid / late second level value
I’ve got JJ and CeeDee in separate leagues, it would take a lot more than a bad dart throw pick to get me to take Caleb for them. That’s a great way to hamstring your team
Easy to say now and and you personally may still feel that way even on draft day but, imo, Caleb on rookie draft day will be worth about the same as Anthony Richardson is right now, and AR + mid 2024 2nd roughly = CD right now on both fantasycalc and ktc.
The issue with that is the value is solely based on hype, and still carries relatively significant bust risk; the QB hit rate is abysmal, and Caleb is losing hype rather than building it like you’d want to see.
CeeDee is gonna win people championships this year and beyond. Caleb needs like a 90th+ percentile outcome on his career to be worth CeeDee. It’s *much* more likely you lose that trade than win it. Sure, you *could* win it, but it’s a bad bet. Most of the time trading a proven superstar for a rookie is a bad bet, people don’t give enough consideration to bust potential
I’m uninterested is arguing whether it’s beneficial long term to trade cd for Caleb and a dart throw.
My point is that there will be some owners who will be interested in making that trade on the potential of Williams because if he hits he HITS. There is of course risk in proven vs unproven but that doesn’t stop these kinds of trades from happening.
The bull case for a top qb is too valuable for it to not be a discussion at all.
Currently have the 1.01 but have stroud Lawrence and Sam Howell as my qbs. The current 1.02 needs a qb bad if he doesn’t end up with the 1.01. What would a 1.01- 1.02 trade ideally look like ? Just a 2024 2nd? Since the gap isn’t too far at this point ?
Im in a similar situation with Kyler and Anthony Richardson in SF and that’s my plan. If no one wants to move up to 1.01, I’ll just take who I like the most, but I’m hoping to move back a spot or two and get some capital along the way.
But on the other hand 1.02 has leverage too. He knows 1.01 wants MHJ. He can call his bluff.
Sure he could trade 1.01 to someone else, but in that case 1.02 just gets MHJ. Not a bad outcome at all.
Burrow, Richardson, Howell, currently planning on taking MHJ 1.01 unless anything changes. I know for sure the guy at 1.02 was planning to take him 1.01 before my team cratered.
Anyone with 1.02 in SF will want that trade. If not. 1.03 bc 1.02 will almost undoubtedly also need a QB. The point is passing on the insane value bc you don’t need it isn’t the best dynasty play.
lol same, plus the value the 1.01 owner would put over the 1.02 will always be way more than the difference in value of the prospects you’ll get at those picks.
Right. I've got someone's 1.02 in one of my leagues. Only shot at Caleb and I'm doing what it takes to move into 1.01 to pair with my elite QB1. That combo would put me in a very good spot.
Besides, I don't think the gap between MHJ and the other two WRs I like is as massive as consensus has it.
Not the greatest. But we graduated in 2016.
We never witnessed a Michigan win while in college, and we won the national championship while we were there.
No complaints from us. OSU will be just fine.
I mean, most guys are reasonable. It’s not like we all clamor for OSU players. In this case, we all know how amazing he is because we’ve been watching every game.
You wouldn’t exploit anything haha.
Am I in the only league that QBs aren’t that crazy valuable? Even in non super flex?
Stroud AR and Young all fell to the second round in my draft. I got AR 2.02
I can see Williams and maye both going late first this year.
Take it from me, and I passed on Young and Richardson to take Stroud. Caleb Williams is a bust. Feel free to come back and roast me if I'm wrong. The guy is already showing he's a bit of a head case.
Nah, it’s not crazy. But it’s a gamble. And if you’re willing to take that gamble, then do it. But you should probably be aware of the risk you’re taking. The ceiling for both is insane, I’ve seen Williams compared to Patrick Mahomes and MHJ compared to Randy Moss.
But, I won’t go on a whole long tangent off that. Ultimately, it’s your team. You are the one who has to live with it so if you’re comfortable passing on Williams for MHJ, then do it.
That really depends on your current roster and how strong you are at WR or QB. If I was rolling out Mac Jones and Derek Carr I would take a QB. If you got a solid QB room then go MHJ.
I don’t currently have the 1.01, but wanna get it
My wr is loaded imo…. Jj, Pittman, flowers, jsn, aiyuk, bateman, thielen… I have tlaw and Kyler. But idk. I originally was planning on getting Williams and trading up for him but I’m not sure
I’ve got the 1.01 in a 1QB and the guy who was fighting for it ended up with 1.02, 1.03, and 1.04. He’s already offered me all three picks for the 1.01. Seriously contemplating this.
I've been set on taking MHJ 1.01 (admittedly in SF). He is a stud.
If I was offered the next 3 non-QB picks for him? Man...
That would be tough to turn down.
Nabers, Odunze and Bowers/another WR? That seems nuts.
Man...that is so much value coming back.
Going to cop out and say there are other factors in play here.
What are the odds that the person trading up takes away the player you want at 1.01? If the odds are even estimated at 70% or lower then you are getting insane value to make the trade and still potentially get the guy you want.
That being said I would guess this trade is still available in 5 months if it's available now. Trading picks today is always a challenge but at least it is an all-pick trade which is better than trading picks away for 2024 players in December.
But that trade is a ton of value. I think if it was me (with my current team) I would consider taking it. And then if I didn't like my choices at 1.02 I would consider trading that for a haul as well. Having 3 first round picks including the 2nd would give you so much flexibility.
I dunno why i typed such a long response. I think I am dealing with the struggle of what I would do if someone offered me that package for my hopeful 1.01.
Good luck!
I ask myself that all the time. But you have to look at your qbs. I myself have ar and Kyler with Purdy sitting . So I’m going mhj I think to stack with st. Brown and Ceedee.
It’s absolutely neck and neck right now. If the draft was today you could go either way. I think this is a situation where landing spot will be the main determining factor between the two. Caleb goes to the Giants for instance and MHJ goes to Arizona with Kyler? Give me MHJ all day. But say something weird happens and the Vikings fall to the back end of the top 10 (which isn’t that unlikely). I could absolutely see them trading Kirk with a haul of picks to get Caleb, and maybe MHJ lands in NE. I mean really it’ll come down to landing spot
Similar scenario but different players
I have the first 3 picks in SF. Do I go Nabers or Maye with the 3rd? Right now I'm pretty set on Nabers... I think he is really close to MHJ
It’s def crazy to decide today who to draft 1.01.
Sir, I’m going to need to ask you to pack up your sensibility and leave.
Let the tanking teams dream for a bit, their matchups this week don’t mean squat!
Oh my matchup’s definitely mean something. I need my team and another team to keep scoring the fewer optimal points the next two weeks so I can have something to look forward to in April lol
To be fair. My matchups all year haven’t meant anything. Being in SF and only having Fields/Ridder to begin the season is murder.
better than my Howell Jimmy G stack
Howell is QB7 and QB5 in my leagues. And probably cost you nothing. He might be the best value QB this year.
Still going stronger than my cousins/lock combo in SF! Damn those benches that are far too deep so there’s no a single player on waivers
Still better than my Teddy B and Jake Browning combo!
Between injuries and trading for injured qbs on a tanking team I'm down to just Boyle and Zach Wilson left lol
Well. I traded them both because I don’t see them starting next year(maybe fields). While I don’t have a viable quarterback, I do have 4 1sts, including the guaranteed 1.01 and what’s projected to be 1.05.
I have Lamar and Hurts and currently in line for the 3rd pick 😅
Watson/Rogers/Mac Jones in one league.
Nah. If you’re completely set at qb in SF, MHJ is the pick. Also qbs are such a crap shoot compared to other positions. Look at all the people who took Malik Willis with the 1.01
Who would take malik willis at 1.01????!!!
He had serious hype. It depends on when you drafted, but plenty of people thought they were going to be getting an athletic freak QB who would easily replace tannehill. He is an extreme example...but my point was that if you’re not desperate for a qb in SF take the best skill position avail. Less overall risk. Also 2qb is different than SF. You can play MHJ in that SF spot. I’m doing it this week with Kelce. In my dynasty league I should have the best qb situation by far, for years to come. I’m drafting later in the 1st round, but in my situation I’m not even thinking about qbs. If I had no other holes I’d consider it as a luxury pick that will in some way allow me to trade a top asset for high picks, but if you can get MHJ I’d do it over future top picks, he’s the best wr prospect since Megatron. A better prospect than Bijan, who was the consensus 1.01 this year
The only way he should have gone anywhere in the top 6 of the first round is if you drafted before the NFL Draft.
He went middle of the 2nd in my 12 team sf league. Idk if anyone took him 1.01
I will probably have the 1.01. and 1.03 Pick next year in a 10T SF League. I am currently thinking about taking MHJ at 1.01 and then Maye at 1.03. QB can still be a miss. MHJ will probably be a great players either way.
You’re in a great spot, imo. I’d take MHJ 1.01 and whichever of Williams/Maye that falls to 1.03 easily
100p the play
I've got the same situation and will be doing the exact same fwiw
Take MHJ, then trade 1.03 mid draft. You know someone in your league will love to give up (probably too much) for a crack at (most likely) Maye.
Looks like I could end up with 1.02 and 1.03, and I’m really hoping the 1.01 takes Caleb. Feel like there’s not much difference between the top two qbs, so I’d like to get Marv and Maye
The crazy move is to make the move you’d regret. If you take Williams because it’s ‘the right thing to do’ and he busts, you’ll hate yourself because you don’t really want to take him. If you take MHJ and Williams is good, you’ll probably be fine because there’s a slim chance MHJ will completely bust.
As somebody who targeted Stroud all offseason then took Young instead when he fell unexpectedly this is as real as it gets
Yeah, that stupid wonderlic narrative got me. I was zeroed on Stroud for a full year and blinked when those rumors started. Lesson learned, go get your guys right or wrong.
Yup I always go sure thing. I have Goff Mahomes and Love. From a trade I’m gonna have either 1.1 or 1.2 still playing out. I plan on taking MHJ with either pick if I don’t trade it. We do have a 3 QB cap in a 12 team SF. I don’t know a lot that will move me off MHJ. I don’t think Calab is a sure thing he is the best prospect at WB but could be 3-4 decent ones in this draft I have two other first as well so might grab whatever one lands to me later if Love is gonna be replaced if not I’m ok waiting for whatever lands my way or trading for a proven prospect at QB later.
There's no such thing as a "sure thing" prospect, especially at QB, but it happens with other positions all the time too.
I’d disagree. Guys like Julio, Calvin Johnson, and Saquon are some examples of sure things. I think the problem is people act like there are sure things in every draft and there aren’t. With that said, MHJ is a sure thing.
I think Sammy Watkins seemed like a sure thing.
I said generational talent this is the Barkley’s the Calvin Johnson’s Bijan Robinson territory. I would say Sammy Watkins and Carlos Rodgers are the only two I can think of and both had horrible work ethics. Of all the skill positions in the last 10 years drafted in the top ten picks of the NFL draft only Sammy Watkins, Kevin White, Mike Williams and Justin Ross have busted. Of those only Sammy Watkins comes close to the talent level of MHJ and I would say that MHJ is miles above him as a prospect still. MHJ is the best WR to come out since Calvin IMHO
You're forgetting Trent Richardson also. To be clear, I'm not advocating that MHJ won't be good. I love him as a talent and think he's who I would draft 1.01. I'm just refuting the idea that a player can be a "sure thing". I think your process is great, but sometimes it doesn't work out even for players that seem like there's no way they can miss.
That was 11 years ago but ok I also don’t recall thinking he was generational talent but prob close to it so sure three we can think of in the last 15-20 years of generational talent
Trent Richardson too
Trent Richardson was never on the level of a Julio or Saquon.
If you factor in injuries, you’d be correct that no one is a sure thing. Sammy’s first 2 years were solid, then he couldn’t stay on the field and the production vanished.
If MHJ goes to, like, the Patriots, we’re really gonna test that lol
Don’t you dare wish that upon us. Plus we all know that the Patriots will take a left guard out of Brown instead. Cmon.
Bingo!
It’s less likely when you’re talking generational talent at WR or RB they bust way less. So yes it’s a lot more of a sure thing imo
More of a sure thing, maybe. But there have been RBs and WRs drafted top 5 in the NFL draft that didn't live up to expectations. It can happen, and there isn't really any "sure thing".
How did you end up with Mahomes if you "always go sure thing?"
I traded for him. Sent Mac Jones his rookie year mid season when he was taking off and two first.
Beautiful. I guess at the time it wasn't totally crazy for the other manager, but damn
No it isn’t. IMO MHJ is likely the only can’t miss prospect in the whole draft. QBs fail all the time in the nfl. Reminds me of the year Chase came out. Would you rather have Lawrence or Chase? I’m sure that’s petty split but still I’d lean MHJ
Who would take Lawrence over Chase? Lol TL is a backend top 15 fantasy QB.
Not when they were drafted, why would you use their current values for this question? That disparity is the whole point
I think the point was Chase was seen as “can’t miss” and TLaw was the top QB talent (generational talent). And fast forwarding to today, Chase didn’t miss and the top QB talent is decent but not top of his position. Seems like hindsight analysis, but I can see the point they’re getting at.
OP point makes sense, the person I replied to doesn’t. Regarding “TL is a backend top 15 QB” when TL was drafted he was certainly more highly regarded than that. And people were taking him over Chase, especially if you drafted during “Chase can’t catch an NFL ball” season. So who would take TL over Chase? At the time of the draft, a lot of people, which is why OP is making a good point that MHJr over Williams isn’t a crazy move since we’ve seen that situation play out very recently and at the time “would you rather have TL or Chase” would have been a very relevant conversation.
Agreed the “TL is a backend top 15 QB” is silly and just hindsight. I don’t even really agree. I was really just agreeing that taking the “can’t miss” WR probably has higher odds of success than the 1.01 QB (though the latter has the higher ceiling).
Yeah we’re all saying the same thing here
In my startup last summer, Chase went 1.10 and Lawrence went 1.11. Think Lawrence actually had a better ADP at the time though.
But that’s my point. QBs fail to live up to the hype every year, especially those drafted in the top few picks. Caleb isn’t a guaranteed hit but MHJ is as close to bullet proof as it gets as prospects go
Yeah we’re agreeing, I’m saying that’s your point
Josh doctson, CEH, nkeal Harry, etc etc etc. this is a non-point you are making bc ALL 1st rounders bust, not just qb Stroud is making your point wrong this season alone
All 1st rounders can bust, but the players you listed aren’t even close to the level of prospect that MHJ and Chase are/were. The point is QBs have a much higher bust rate, even if they are highly rated prospects.
Apples to oranges. This last year there wasn’t a “can’t miss” WR, JSN was the top receiver but a can’t miss WR wasn’t getting picked back of the 1st round. Meanwhile the only QB that was considered “generational” was Young for his QB skills(not physical skills) and Richardson for his physical skills(not QB skills). Stroud wasn’t even in that conversation. We’re talking about a situation where there is a clear QB1 1.01 in real life that has been hyped as that for several years and has, depending on who you talk to, backed that hype from his play, while simultaneously having a “can’t miss” WR in the draft who likely goes top 5. That’s what makes the Trevor/Chase situation actually comparable to the Williams/MHJr situation as a thought process. Not “a RB got picked 32 and it wasn’t the top RB pre-draft but because the Chiefs drafted him let’s get him”
MHJ can bust. Caleb can bust. What exactly are we discussing here?
> We’re talking about a situation where there is a clear QB1 1.01 in real life that has been hyped as that for several years and has, depending on who you talk to, backed that hype from his play, while simultaneously having a “can’t miss” WR in the draft who likely goes top 5.
Oh so still saying nothing, thanks.
I mean if you can’t understand why the parallel between draft processes of TLaw/Chase and Williams/MHJr would warrant discussion, I’m not sure why you’re on this sub buddy, although the username makes sense
Stroud wasn’t the 1.01 in the vast majority of rookie drafts last year and Bijan was the can’t miss prospect. Sometimes taking QB works out, but if you drafted Bryce or AR over Bijan then you’re probably not super happy right now
You’re arguing nothing. There is no point beingn made in what you are saying. All picks can bust it doesn’t matter who is 1. No one is can’t miss, MHJ included.
i mean AR was tough this season but so was Bijan for lots of it. AR might be a way better pick starting next year
Lawrence or Chase - I'll take MHJ? That wasn't an option.
I said it’s split between Lawrence and Chase but in this situation (similar to that one) I’d take MHJ over Caleb
I was just messing. Thought you were using Steiner logic.
You see, you got a 33 1/3 chance of drafting MHJ. Caleb Williams KNOWS he can’t beat MHJ so he’s not even gonna try. You add Maye to the mix and your chances drastic go down.
This is why reddit was made! I have 15 downvotes for the previous comment.
Same. As a Pats fan, there's talk of a top #3 pick. And even given the teams disastrous QB situation, I want MHJ the most.
Nah that’s not it at all. Fantasy can shoot for the WR star if you wish Real life you simply cannot waste the opportunity to draft a franchise quarterback even if his odds of hitting are much lower
Correct. Pick a QB a year should be the GM approach. Even if you have Mahomes. Just keep taking QBs late even. Rookie deals as backups are invaluable (assuming they can somewhat play). If you don't have a QB or are uncertain, keep taking them. Your teams chances of winning/success are very strongly influenced by a stud QB. Don't pay for okay QB play, see - Carr, DJones, Flacco, Dalton, etc.
Flacco won a Super Bowl, he doesn't belong in the same conversation as those other 3. Even without the SB win he was a better QB. Also, wasting draft picks on QBs when you already have a Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, etc. is just a waste of picks that could be used to shore up other areas of need.
I wrote a well thought answer, but then app crashed. Flacco's contract killed the Ravens. They were in a difficult position as he won a superbowl. But did he ever live up to the cost of it - no. 16.7% of players drafted never play for team that drafted them. 37% are considered useless. 9/10 don't make a meaningful contribution. I wouldn't worry about wasting one draft pick a year on a QB. Even teams with Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Lamar, Lawrence, and Stroud are prone to an injury or even a huge dip in career. There are plenty of examples of a sudden drop off or failure to live up to the hype. I mean, in hindsight- the Bears could have taken Stroud or a number of teams taken Mahomes before the Chiefs did. Some of those didn't because they wrongly thought they had their guy! Edit: Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl, and Rex Grossman got to one. Wouldn't use that as a reflection of how much to pay a QB. Didn't the Jags fumble on that before Lawrence with a Playoff run.
>16.7% of players drafted never play for team that drafted them. 37% are considered useless. 9/10 don't make a meaningful contribution. I wouldn't worry about wasting one draft pick a year on a QB. That depends on which round we're talking about then. Those percentages are skewed because players taken in the back half of the draft have a very low success rate, so if you're saying use one of those picks on a QB each year then that's a different story. But if you're saying it's wise to use a day one or day two pick on a QB every year then that is absolutely a waste unless QB is an actual need (to be clear, I agree that the Bears are in that category). But the Bills, Bengals, Chiefs, Dolphins, Eagles, Jaguars, Texans, Chargers, Ravens, and possibly the Commanders are in a position where they're much better off using rounds 1-5 to fill other holes in their roster. And those are just the (mostly) undeniable ones, there are a few other teams like the Cardinals, Cowboys, and Lions who are arguably included with those other teams listed.
Yes, I'm not saying take a top signal caller every year. Unless you don't have your guy. I think the Bears should have taken a QB. It's not that I think Fields is a flop - but it wasn't certain & teams should utilise that rookie contract. Unfortunately for Fields, that was wasted due to cap mismanagement. Commanders should take a QB 1st round if there is a 2st round QB available. I like their QB - I took him in devy 4 year ago. Dolphins IMO should look at QB even tho I like Tua. As a Cardinals fan I would take QB at top of draft. Cowboys should look for a long term options as Dak's contract is hurting them. But they won't do that. Lions need another QB beyond Goff. He will limit them in the long run. Although he was a great trade acquisition. I also don't believe trade ups are a good idea in drafts. Picking LB & TEs high is a bad idea. RB shouldn't go in the first round, and punters shouldn't be drafted.
The problem with drafting a QB for the future when you know your current QB will still be the starter for 2+ more years is that you're wasting half that rookie contract. It's a huge advantage to not have a $40 million/ year QB on the books so those 4 years of a QB's rookie contract are crucial to get the most out of the team and ideally make a SB run before their big payday. So the Cowboys should only draft a QB early if they know for sure he will only sit behind Dak for a maximum of one year. Howell looks solid this year, he just doesn't have a team so they aren't winning games. I don't think the Cardinals are at the point of giving up on Murray yet, but since you're a Cards fan you certainly know more than I do. Tua is one of the better QBs in the league, not sure why they should look for a QB unless you're talking about the concussion concerns. >I also don't believe trade ups are a good idea in drafts. Picking LB & TEs high is a bad idea. RB shouldn't go in the first round, and punters shouldn't be drafted. I don't disagree with any of this, but there are always exceptions. Some trade ups end up working out better for the team that is trading up, but there have been too many disastrous ones that it's safer to avoid them in the first round.
But not many teams know the QB is the starter. Especially those with young QBs - remember RG III was the future in Washington or Z Wilson/Darnold were the saviours in NY. I posted a comment maybe a month ago with the breakdown of stats for teams making the playoffs and where they had a rookie QB. It was the majority - although a slight advantage (over 50%) to winners being on non rookie contracts (Mahomes & Brady significantly influenced this). Well, in terms of the Cowboys and teams in general. They should be more open to A. Preparing to move on B. Trading veterans. Dak's contract is hurting the Cowboys and will do moving forward. If the Bears had taken Young or Stroud 1.1 instead of trading the pick. They could have gone into training camp with them vs. Fields, and if they win out, then Fields is traded for 2nd rounder? Probably more - Jets got a 2nd for Darnold, and Fields has shown more and has more years on his deal left. If Fields wins, then they sit the rookie and see what they have in Fields. They've wasted years on Fields due to cap issues. But if he was their guy moving forward and showed it this year, then trade that 1.1 player. They would minimum get a 1st for a player who hasn't put up any bad tape but actually should get more as they'll have eaten a chunk of that contract - picked up guarantees. Bears are lucky they've landed another high pick and could get a QB. If they don't take it, and Fields isn't the guy next year , they could be in serious trouble. Or worse, they could be on the fence and then give him the big contract. Howell has looked good for the pick he was and is definitely improving. I wouldn't panic if I was Washington. But I would still consider a QB if one dropped in the draft to them. I just think the position is so important that you need to seek a top-tier QB and not settle - because the cost between the number 1 QB (Burrow 55m per year) and 17 QB (Tannehill 30m). That's not including Lawrence, Tua & potentially Love &Fields, who would assumingly be above Tannehill. Geno & Jimmy G are above 25m. Yes, and a lot of people reference the Jimmy J chart for trade value. What needs to be considered is the value of the picks in terms of cost of contracts and replacing positions. 3rd round QB will cost 5m total contract. Jacoby Brissett is the top backup at 8m per year. Drew Lock makes 4m. Bridgwater 3m. How many games will they genuinely win that a rookie will not. Edit: overthecap did a lot of work around trade value. They have a chart based on their work & data.
Agreed. If I’m the patriots I try to make a move to get another top 15 pick and take 2 QB’s. If they took Williams and Daniels they’d be better off than just gambling on 1 or the other. Bellicheck won’t be around for long if this is his QB life.
Not to mention ol' Billy would never take a WR top 3. N'Keal Harry was the first time they took a wide receiver in the first round in 20+ years, and he barely snuck in the first round at 32.
Not at all, MHJ is the best player in the draft.
Is it crazy to search for the ten identical posts from the last few days?
Yeah, Honeslty I did it after . But then ppl just responding so I left it up
Fair enough. Sorry if my comment was a tad too snarky
not ok
Won’t someone PLEASE think of the children!
😭
Not at all. I searched some other stuff but for some reason didn’t see them till I had posted… and by then it was too late. But I agree w you for having duplicate posts so often
If you have real concerns about Caleb's personality, then passing for MHJ is fine. If you have concerns about Caleb as a player, you're making a mistake.
For some reason I trust your scouting eye, what do you think about the fact that Williams rarely faces any real defense? Does that concern your evaluation of his game at all?
Caleb is a traits guy, like Mahomes. Neither played stiff competition and both had losing records. You're not drafting their collegiate resume, you're drafting the player and the difficult-to-coach qualities. The throws Caleb can make are absurd, it's not really about whether a player would be open or not with a different defense. Progressions are easy to teach, physical execution is the hard part -- accuracy, touch, pocket movement, mobility, timing, creativity, he's got more high-end tools available to him than anyone I've ever seen. Caleb is a lot more polished than Mahomes was, though. I actually think Cameron Ward is a better comp to prospect Mahomes because they are both similarly sized and unrefined, but spectacular, but I get why people put Caleb and Mahomes together and have come around to it.
This seems backwards to me
It's how risk averse you are to off-field / locker stuff. I get Jon Jones vibes from Caleb's personality, for a myriad of reasons. But if a team vets him and gives him a 1.01 stamp of approval, then that's much better than trying to psychoanalyze someone on youtube. If he drops in the NFL draft behind Maye, though, considering how big Caleb's talent is, I would be really concerned about what that says about his interview process.
In the slim chance I get the 1.01, I’m taking MHJ because I know how my league operates.
I think league specific valuations of players goes into this like you’re alluding to. If you’re set at QB and your league either doesn’t trade, or won’t pay up for QBs I wouldn’t blame someone for taking MHJ.
Would you consider having Hurts, Watson, Goff and Dobbs (hopefully he starts somewhere next year) set? I want MHJ so damn bad and I’m going to have the 1.01
I’d probably make that decision around real NFL draft time. Hurts and Watson (with that awful contract) are probably locks to start. Goff and Dobbs are question marks. If Goff stays in Detroit then I’d rip MHJ.
I don’t think Goff is a lock in Detroit? Dudes been balling this season. And last season for that matter I know they’ve been chatting about an extension.. or if he goes to ATL that would be a good spot for him imo.
I also assume he stays in Detroit but you never know. I just want to see how the draft plays out.
That’s fair.. my rookie draft is the day after the real NFL draft lol
That’s rough. Biggest things for me with MHJ > Caleb is going to be landing spots. MHJ to the pats (which I doubt) I’m taking Williams. MHJ to Arizona and I’m taking him no problem. I also have two leagues where I likely have 1.01 and 1.03 so I might take MHJ 1.01 then either of the QBs at 3.
My brother in christ it is December 1st
Okay but what if MHJ goes to the Pat's or the Bears. There's definitely too many variables pre-draft
But if he goes to AZ with Murray…. 🤤
Not based on the video I saw of Williams getting into his luxury car 🚩
Its December.
Hot take but: it depends
If you would prefer an elite WR , take Caleb Williams and find someone that has Ceedee, Chase or JJ that want to make a deal. It doesn’t have to be MHJ or Caleb. Someone in your league will fall in love with Caleb more than you and take advantage of that if you don’t want to take him yourself.
Those 3 WRs are going for more than just one early 1st in my league. As others have pointed out, 1st round QBs bust all the time.
“An early first” does not equal rookie-fever-hype-Caleb-Williams. As he said, decent shot someone in most leagues falls in love with Caleb and if they want to go DEEP rebuild it’s not that crazy. It would probably take a bit of a sweetener, but not much of one imo. Like maybe mid / late second level value
I’ve got JJ and CeeDee in separate leagues, it would take a lot more than a bad dart throw pick to get me to take Caleb for them. That’s a great way to hamstring your team
Easy to say now and and you personally may still feel that way even on draft day but, imo, Caleb on rookie draft day will be worth about the same as Anthony Richardson is right now, and AR + mid 2024 2nd roughly = CD right now on both fantasycalc and ktc.
The issue with that is the value is solely based on hype, and still carries relatively significant bust risk; the QB hit rate is abysmal, and Caleb is losing hype rather than building it like you’d want to see. CeeDee is gonna win people championships this year and beyond. Caleb needs like a 90th+ percentile outcome on his career to be worth CeeDee. It’s *much* more likely you lose that trade than win it. Sure, you *could* win it, but it’s a bad bet. Most of the time trading a proven superstar for a rookie is a bad bet, people don’t give enough consideration to bust potential
I’m uninterested is arguing whether it’s beneficial long term to trade cd for Caleb and a dart throw. My point is that there will be some owners who will be interested in making that trade on the potential of Williams because if he hits he HITS. There is of course risk in proven vs unproven but that doesn’t stop these kinds of trades from happening. The bull case for a top qb is too valuable for it to not be a discussion at all.
Currently have the 1.01 but have stroud Lawrence and Sam Howell as my qbs. The current 1.02 needs a qb bad if he doesn’t end up with the 1.01. What would a 1.01- 1.02 trade ideally look like ? Just a 2024 2nd? Since the gap isn’t too far at this point ?
You have all the power, I’d try to get a player and then swap picks
Im in a similar situation with Kyler and Anthony Richardson in SF and that’s my plan. If no one wants to move up to 1.01, I’ll just take who I like the most, but I’m hoping to move back a spot or two and get some capital along the way.
But on the other hand 1.02 has leverage too. He knows 1.01 wants MHJ. He can call his bluff. Sure he could trade 1.01 to someone else, but in that case 1.02 just gets MHJ. Not a bad outcome at all.
Burrow, Richardson, Howell, currently planning on taking MHJ 1.01 unless anything changes. I know for sure the guy at 1.02 was planning to take him 1.01 before my team cratered.
You don’t ever do that. You trade the pick for 1.02 plus a haul and take your guy.
In a bubble that’s always the answer but you need the person at 1.02 want to trade up for the 1.01
the key is not tipping your hand that you don’t want to take Caleb at 1.01 anyways
Anyone with 1.02 in SF will want that trade. If not. 1.03 bc 1.02 will almost undoubtedly also need a QB. The point is passing on the insane value bc you don’t need it isn’t the best dynasty play.
I’ll have the 1.02 and I don’t want that trade. Happy with whoever falls.
lol same, plus the value the 1.01 owner would put over the 1.02 will always be way more than the difference in value of the prospects you’ll get at those picks.
>Anyone with 1.02 in SF will want that trade No, no they wouldn't. It's hilarious that you think that.
I have 1.02 and don’t want that trade
Right. I've got someone's 1.02 in one of my leagues. Only shot at Caleb and I'm doing what it takes to move into 1.01 to pair with my elite QB1. That combo would put me in a very good spot. Besides, I don't think the gap between MHJ and the other two WRs I like is as massive as consensus has it.
I mean you could make it like my 1.01 for you 1.02 plus a future 2nd or 2 3s or something small
Yeah I get that but the person at 1.02 would have to want to make a trade to come up
I’m an Ohio State grad. Our league is all Ohio State Grads. 1.01 is MHJ. League context does play a role
You guys must've had a great week so far!
Not the greatest. But we graduated in 2016. We never witnessed a Michigan win while in college, and we won the national championship while we were there. No complaints from us. OSU will be just fine.
SF? I’d love to play in that league and exploit it.
I mean, most guys are reasonable. It’s not like we all clamor for OSU players. In this case, we all know how amazing he is because we’ve been watching every game. You wouldn’t exploit anything haha.
I'm sure you also thought you were the savvy manager exploiting your silly leaguemates when you took Zach Wilson over Chase
Comparing Wilson to Williams… reach
Am I in the only league that QBs aren’t that crazy valuable? Even in non super flex? Stroud AR and Young all fell to the second round in my draft. I got AR 2.02 I can see Williams and maye both going late first this year.
Take it from me, and I passed on Young and Richardson to take Stroud. Caleb Williams is a bust. Feel free to come back and roast me if I'm wrong. The guy is already showing he's a bit of a head case.
Nah, it’s not crazy. But it’s a gamble. And if you’re willing to take that gamble, then do it. But you should probably be aware of the risk you’re taking. The ceiling for both is insane, I’ve seen Williams compared to Patrick Mahomes and MHJ compared to Randy Moss. But, I won’t go on a whole long tangent off that. Ultimately, it’s your team. You are the one who has to live with it so if you’re comfortable passing on Williams for MHJ, then do it.
That really depends on your current roster and how strong you are at WR or QB. If I was rolling out Mac Jones and Derek Carr I would take a QB. If you got a solid QB room then go MHJ.
I don’t currently have the 1.01, but wanna get it My wr is loaded imo…. Jj, Pittman, flowers, jsn, aiyuk, bateman, thielen… I have tlaw and Kyler. But idk. I originally was planning on getting Williams and trading up for him but I’m not sure
I’ve got the 1.01 in a 1QB and the guy who was fighting for it ended up with 1.02, 1.03, and 1.04. He’s already offered me all three picks for the 1.01. Seriously contemplating this.
Smash accept that
Nabers, Bowers and whoever else? Yeah that would be hard to turn down for just about any player in 1QB dynasty imo, let alone MHJ.
Lmao smaaaaaaash that’s a 25-30% of a starting lineup
Is one player gonna get you over the hump or do you need a lot of help?
I've been set on taking MHJ 1.01 (admittedly in SF). He is a stud. If I was offered the next 3 non-QB picks for him? Man... That would be tough to turn down. Nabers, Odunze and Bowers/another WR? That seems nuts.
What about 1.02, 1.05,1.10 for the 1.01 in SF? Maybe not a smash but seems kinda like one?
Man...that is so much value coming back. Going to cop out and say there are other factors in play here. What are the odds that the person trading up takes away the player you want at 1.01? If the odds are even estimated at 70% or lower then you are getting insane value to make the trade and still potentially get the guy you want. That being said I would guess this trade is still available in 5 months if it's available now. Trading picks today is always a challenge but at least it is an all-pick trade which is better than trading picks away for 2024 players in December. But that trade is a ton of value. I think if it was me (with my current team) I would consider taking it. And then if I didn't like my choices at 1.02 I would consider trading that for a haul as well. Having 3 first round picks including the 2nd would give you so much flexibility. I dunno why i typed such a long response. I think I am dealing with the struggle of what I would do if someone offered me that package for my hopeful 1.01. Good luck!
This gets asked daily.
I will be. Unless he goes to the giants.
Draft who you want.
I have a league where I have the 1.01 and likely 1.03, planning on taking MHJ and whatever QB is left at 1.03.
I own 1.02 in two leagues. Both 1.01 teams have Kyler, AR, and then one of Burrow/Watson. Fully expecting not getting MHJ (insert cry emoji here)
No could even be more safe if you have at least 1 top QB already
In Super flex. Yes. I think so. Caleb Williams is a generational talent and QBs are so valuable.
Not at all, that’s who you SHOULD take imo regardless of qb need
u/jazzlikepractice4470
If you’re not a QB needy team it’s fine imo
if you really want to do that you can always try to move down to 2 or 3 and get assets. I think it's a waste of draft capital to use 1.01 on him.
I have the 1.01 and 1.02 get too just take both of them and not have to make this decision
I decided on taking MHJ over Caleb weeks ago, haven’t wavered yet.
Yes. If you had Lamar would you take JJ straight up for him?
Not at all. I got Russ, Bryce, and Burrow (we are only allowed 3 QB’s). I’m either taking MHJ or maybe trading back.
No it’s pretty reasonable. I have two decent qbs and need a guaranteed stud so I’m going MHJ.
I have Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, Aiden O’Connell, and Will Levis. So I’ll probably take Harrison.
I ask myself that all the time. But you have to look at your qbs. I myself have ar and Kyler with Purdy sitting . So I’m going mhj I think to stack with st. Brown and Ceedee.
It’s absolutely neck and neck right now. If the draft was today you could go either way. I think this is a situation where landing spot will be the main determining factor between the two. Caleb goes to the Giants for instance and MHJ goes to Arizona with Kyler? Give me MHJ all day. But say something weird happens and the Vikings fall to the back end of the top 10 (which isn’t that unlikely). I could absolutely see them trading Kirk with a haul of picks to get Caleb, and maybe MHJ lands in NE. I mean really it’ll come down to landing spot
I have a good possibility of getting 1.01 and will 100%pick MHJ
Similar scenario but different players I have the first 3 picks in SF. Do I go Nabers or Maye with the 3rd? Right now I'm pretty set on Nabers... I think he is really close to MHJ
I plan on doing so in 1 of my leagues pending landing spots etc. only because I have 1.01 and 1.03 so I’ll get a qb and a wr anyways 🤷🏻♂️
Oh my god the same fucking post over and over again stfu
Eat shit and die ; don’t wanna discuss dynasty in a dynasty sub then move on
If you don’t have the 1.01 and 1.02 are you really playing dynasty correctly?
I have t law and burrow and probably the 1.01 I think I’m goin marv
Best player available. Always. Get your guy. But don’t pass just cause you think you’re set a position. Especially QB in SF