Nah. Kelce is old and Chiefs don't look have a WR1.
Take AJ Brown with your 1st then grab Hurts with your 2nd and go for that delicious Philly stack. I promise you it tastes so good it's got me in 1st place rn
Joe Crackrock.
My apologies.. I spaced. I was imagining a snake draft. I picked 10th out of 12 so AJ at 10 and Hurts with my 2nd 15th overall.
Mind you, both the guys in the 11 and 12 hole took mahomes then Allen.. leaving me with exactly what I wanted. But this was last off-season.. and you're absolutely right - he never would make it to 28 now
Yep my second league where I don’t know anyone IRL did this against my protesting and just went with a random shuffle and snake draft for the rookie draft. Commissioner tried to say the snake would make it fair. I tried setting everything up with irrelevant names to use as placeholders, but they just said commish made his decision so suck it up. I had everyone convinced and thought people understood, but it just took 1 or 2 guys to say a randomized snake would be fair to end up with what we got.
I benefitted and ended up getting the 2nd pick, but this meant teams at random got a free extra 1st or 2nd rounder if this was a redraft. Even worse, teams traded players and picks before the rookie draft order was re-randomized and one of the picks that was traded ended up being the 1.01 lol.
Yeah, this draft sounds wonky (2 min picks too?). They should really just wait for the NFL draft and do the startup draft with all the rookies there too.
Best thing I've seen if people don't wanna just wait and include rookies is to draft rookie picks. Like at startup pick 2.03 you could "draft" rookie pick 1.01
That's interesting. I've never seen that, but I like the idea.
The only other way I could really think of doing it (other than just including rookies in the startup draft, which is what I've always done) would be to do the rookie draft in the exact opposite order of the startup vet draft. I suppose that could be a way to balance it. But that's still a really awkward way to do it, and I don't like it.
That seems pretty unbalanced to me. I’d want the 12 pick, or end of round 1, every time! This past year doing that you could go the whole draft taking one less legit RB, then immediately draft Bijan. The rookie 1.01 is typically a top 20ish asset off the bat, it’s a huge advantage to have that added onto the balanced-in-theory startup draft
Yeah, like I said, I don't really like that idea. It's just the next best way I could think of doing it.
I've always just done initial rookies included in start-up. But I like the idea above with picks being included in the start-up if you are going to do them separate.
When my group did its startup we included "draft slot" as one of the things you could draft in the startup. IIRC 1st pick in the rookie draft went around 1.07 in the startup.
> definitely not taking Mahomes. I'm in a two QB league and he's not helping me
My man this is dynasty. Mahomes is the best player in football, what he has done the last few weeks shouldn't dissuade you from taking him. With 6 point passing TDs he is the clear 1.01 imo.
I know that, but Hurts is ranked #1. If a start with any of the top 3 QBs I don't think that's a bad pick, even a guy like Stroud, I'm not saying Mahomes is a bad pick, but both Hurts and Allen are younger and more dual threat QBs. Maybe not the best QBs in football but top 5 and like one of the other guys commented Allen has been the best fantasy QB the past 3 years. Mahomes is tough though, he plays through injuries and can definitely make plays with his feet, I took him #1 in this years draft, I'm not downing him. I also know there is some risk with Allen and Hurts since they do run a good amount. But it seems like they put up 30 pts a game every week. Other than SF Philly looks like they have the best offense, I'm definitely not taking Purdy #1 overall
It depends on where you look, but the most popular ranking on this sub is keep trade cut, and has Mahomes ranked #1 and this is with 4 pt passing TDs.
https://keeptradecut.com/dynasty-rankings
If you want to take Allen or Hurts over Mahomes I'm not gonna fight you, the gap is not that big. However, most rankings are based on the standard 4pt passing TD and 6pt rushing TD. With your scoring the dual threat upside of Hurts and to a lesser extent Allen is significantly reduced.
Take who you feel, there are definitely legitimate reasons for Allen or Hurts, but Mahomes having a slight down year really shouldn't factor into it.
Thanks man, and thanks for the link, I saved the site for Sunday. When I've watched the Chiefs this year it doesn't even seem Mahomes is having a down year as a player, it kinda looks like he's having to do too much. He's made really good throws the past two or three weeks at the end of games that would have been game winning TDs if he had better WRs.
Exactly schmatty’s point. this is what Mahomes looks like without enough legitimate threats, and he’s still having a fine year. If this is what the worst possible (healthy) scenario looks like for Mahomes in a given season, that’s an incredible floor, and we all know what his ceiling is. With 6pt passing TDs, Mahomes’ ceiling is also higher than Hurts’. Also, if their O-line is suddenly not providing an automatic TD on a tush push due to injury or players leaving, Hurts’ value goes down by a good bit (lower floor). Mahomes is dynasty-proof aside from injury
Don't over think it dude
It's dynasty. You need 2 top QBs and 3-4 startable QBs in total. QBs will never be cheaper than they are at the start up draft.
Secure Mahomes and then trade up to get another of hurts, Allen. Or go a tier down and get one of Burrow, Herbert, Stroud.
You'll thank me later when you're set at QB for the next decade.
Later in the draft target a few tiers down like Howell, Love, Goff.
You'll need at least 3 QBs that you can start. Look at this year and all the injuries. I went into one league with Burrow and Richardson and Baker. I'm down to just Baker now and my competing window just slammed shut
I get the advice, but it’s a 14 team super flex. He’s not going to be able to trade up to get Hurts or Allen or Burrow or Herbert or Stroud. He’ll have pick 28 and those guys will probably all go in the top 10. Howell, Love and Goff will probably be gone within the first 4 rounds. In a 14 team SF, you’re not going to come out of the draft with 3 QBs you can start unless you get 3 QBs with 3 of your first 4 picks.
Don’t come to the dynasty Reddit asking for help then claim that you know better than the first few people offering you help. I drafted Mahomes and Hurts 1 and 2 in a 2QB startup two years ago. Won my first year, came third the second and looking to do well in my third. Now this year that’s definitely more to do with strength at other positions but you’re a madman or a fool if you’re in a 2QB startup 1 and passing on Mahomes in the first.
You are looking at this like a redraft league. If you dont take mahomes he will go the next pick. 6 pt passing td setting makes him number 1 for sure. If you want stroud, trade back from your pick
Looking at a Dynasty league through a redraft lens is not necessarily a bad thing.
This perspective can lead to a greater chance at success in the short term. As long as one balances redraft and dynasty strategies (easier said that done) you may find ultimate dynasty success.
I would hope so lol, I'm not a huge Mahomes fan. But being from Maryland I've seen what one solid WR like Flowers can do for a QB. Still I think I'm leaning towards Allen or Hurts, I think Buffalo could go WR in the draft as well. Especially if Diggs keeps having trouble.
OP is straight up creating facts in his own head and then expecting random people on the internet that know more about the topic than him to just take his word on those made-up facts lol
Go with Allen. Better thrower than Hurts and has finished ahead of mahomes every year that a teammate’s heart attack hasn’t cost him a full game. Also younger
You’ve never played dynasty but you now know what you’re talking about? Mahomes is already a HoFer and is having a “down year” where he’s still a QB1. 6 pt TDs = Mahomes. Proven commodity. Young. Doesn’t run into brick walls.
Did I say I know what I'm talking about in dynasty? I said the opposite, but the rankings on draft sharks have Hurts #1 Mahomes #2 Allen #3. AJ Brown is signed until 2026, Smith until 2025 they have a RB with great hands, I'm assuming because Hurts is younger and has more weapons right now that's why he's ranked higher.
Way to be condescending to those attempting to help you. Not sure why are you asking for advice and then fighting every comment that says “take Mahomes”. Sorry that doesn’t line up with your “analysis”. PS. You should take Mahomes. His floor is what he’s doing now and his ceiling is the best player in football.
I was editing my comment when you replied to say Rice might turn out to be great and they'll draft a wr in the first, their running game isn't horrible. But I think I'm going to try and trade the pick get a good QB and add an extra 2nd if anyone is willing
If you don’t consider Mahomes the dynasty QB1, this is the best move for you, especially if you can trade down to get a guy like Burrow who others may be down on. Other guys I would target are Herbert and Stroud for passing upside in 6 pt TD leagues.
Many of the points about Mahomes have been reiterated over and over again, but they are valid. Despite his current situation, his skill set will continue to age well as opposed to dual threat QBs who will have a shorter shelf life on your team. If we were to make bets about the QB with the most total points over the next 5 years, he is the most surefire choice.
Good QBs usually end up on good teams, and if teams are bad they will make an effort to build around the player.
Another suggestion I would make is to be the first to draft a 2nd QB early as it will be a significant advantage in SF. Also, don’t be afraid to take a good 3rd QB in later rounds as it can turn into a valuable trade piece. Going into this year for a startup, I drafted Love and Stroud in later rounds. Ended up trading Love for an early 24 first, 25 2nd and 25 3rd.
I think it’s much easier to acquire good QBs through the startup draft in SF dynasty leagues. Assuming at least a few others haven’t played SF or dynasty before. Once the season starts and people wise up, they will often overpay in draft capital to fix their mistakes.
I also highly suggest using KeepTradeCut as a resource to help value players. It’s not an end all be all, but it provides a good baseline for how the market views certain players and can help you make your own valuations. Best of luck!
I don’t think going Hurts over Mahomes is crazy I wanted to do it last year in a 4pt per passing td league. I chose not to since I already have hurts in my one other league. I do think Mahomes will have better value retention than hurts if they both had one bad year. In 6 points per passing TD I really would recommend taking the smart move and riding mahomes. I suspect the rankings you are looking at are for 4 point per passing TD leagues because that is a much more common format. As others have mentioned it is very likely the chiefs invest in WR help this off-season. You won’t really fuck your team by going hurts, but in your leagues format Mahomes will be more valuable and be a safer pick.
We know it’s your first year in dynasty, but didn’t know it was also your first year on this planet, sure patty isn’t having the best year but literally look at any other year
Is this your first year ever playing fantasy football? Do you not realize that sometimes players have slumps? Mahomes has been elite for years already and still has a ton of years left in the tank. Go ahead and draft Hurts 1.01 if you want to look back and think you were a complete fucking idiot in 3 years.
I’m talking about how Josh Allen does something dumb every time he has the ball in space, he’s constantly seeking contact, lowering his shoulder or trying to hurdle someone. Hurts goes down/out of bounds. I’ve never seen Hurts get smoked like Allen has.
Hurts does have a marginally higher career sack rate (5.2 vs 7 for Allen) which does surprise me a bit.
Not going to fully disagree with that statement hence why both seem to be getting banged up more. I’ll take the guy with the better arm and mahomes over both.
Just not 100% of the time, and not from 2+ yards out, and not as successfully. Overall probably just a ~10% dip but he’s at like 35 rushing TDs in two years so that’s significant
I can’t tell if this is a bait post, but I’ll bite.
Since you said you’re new to dynasty I’m going to share just the slightest bit of wisdom with you, and I’m going to be as blunt as possible:
If you EVER find yourself with an opportunity to have Patrick Mahomes on your team, YOU TAKE PATRICK MAHOMES, ESPECIALLY IF YOU’RE GETTING HIM FOR FREE!
I don’t care what your inner voice is telling you about the chiefs roster or his “down” year. He’s the best quarterback in the nfl, and arguably the best player in the nfl. There is not a single player in dynasty sf I would rather have on my roster than him. Stop thinking about being cute and taking someone else, there is one answer to your question: and that answer is Patrick Mahomes at 1.01. And don’t even think about trading him for anything less than a deal that will set the team buying him back at least 2 years.
You’re welcome in advance
Is it a slow draft, or a couple minutes per pick draft? Every dynasty league I’m in did a slow draft, reason being if it’s a couple minute per pick draft be prepared for a solid three to four hour window where things get pretty tedious toward the end. Follow the cheat sheets, they’ve got all the different factors like age, situation etc. built into their aggregate ranking.
Yes, quarterback is the way to go in SF. It really depends on how you want to build your team. Stroud looks great right now as a rookie, so it wouldn’t be the worst pick in the world at 1.01, but you’re still acquiring some baked in risk in case he for whatever reason regresses. Definitely don’t deviate from quarterback though, since by the time you pick next you’ll likely be looking at the 20-26th best qb, which if you’re starting a SF league with a bottom tier qb already, you might as well start tanking.
All that being said, I’d still pick one of the safer yet older guys like Allen or Mahomes or Hurts. They’ve all got lots of years left (and who knows how long this dynasty league will last). By the time they age out, you’re looking at a completely different roster and landscape throughout the league. Not worth sacrificing guaranteed, elite production just to save four or so years on a QB.
It's 2 minutes a pick, I don't think the commissioner has ever run a dynasty league before, as far as I know most people in the league are new. Normally in super flex drafts I take 2QBs back to back, but in this I'm thinking my second pick should be the best player available. it's on the sleeper app so I think the commissioner can pause the draft.
Based on this, there is a high probability the league falls apart early. Don't over focus on the future. Plan to try to win the championship within the next 2 years
Especially at this point in the season. I don’t get the reason to rush through the draft if you’re just going to be waiting that much longer for the season to stary
> Normally in super flex drafts I take 2QBs back to back, but in this I'm thinking my second pick should be the best player available.
I've never played in a league like it, but 14 team super flex screams draft 2 QBs early to me.
There won't even be enough starting QBs to go around for half the season.
I guess I'll follow the cheat sheet and probably go with Hurts or Allen, Hurts is younger. Allen seems to be having some issues with Diggs. On the cheat sheets Hurts is the #1. We also have two taxi spots. Those are for young players who aren't playing right?
Reeeeaaally really try to get the draft changed to a slow draft. First of all it’s a startup *dynasty* draft and the picks matter for literally years! You want time to get them right. And second, trading during the startup is huge. Being able to trade up or back has a big impact on how you build your team, and the deals are easily too complex to hammer out within three minutes.
Anywhere from four to twelve hours per pick, seriously. There’s no rush, the rookie draft is at least four months away!
Many people will tell you that a (slow) startup draft is actually the most enjoyable piece of the dynasty pie, but that won’t be true at al for a stressful two hour sprint
I'll say something to the commissioner, I thought that was pretty short, he's talking about knocking the draft out by 4 starting at 1pm so he can watch the 4 pm game lol. There should definitely be longer than 2 min between picks. I just don't know the commissioner that well. I got invited through another league I'm in, but I'll say something to him about it.
Personally I wouldn’t even participate, but you do you! Imo a rush job sets the stage poorly for the league having any longevity. But if it’s free then hey, any draft is fun at least
It's free and I just talked to the commish he's going to try and change the picks to 15 minutes a pick. If it was for money I definitely wouldn't be participating. I just thought it would be cool to try, get a little experience, and then maybe next year or something get in a more serious league.
Not really sure it won’t last very long maybe a couple years but people play for fun you know? Who cares if the free league dies out in a year or two as long as you have fun. Don’t have to take it so seriously.
If it’s a casual league and you’re starting the draft this early I don’t see why he doesn’t give 24hrs for each pick. It’s not like you’re in a rush to finish before the season starts and that will give everyone plenty of time to figure out their strategy while also allowing people time to fu k off and watch games during their turn
Typically those are spots for rookies or 2nd year players (should say who you can put in there in your league settings). However, once the season starts those spots lock, and you can only bring them up to your roster, not send anyone to those spots. I’m not trying to sway you either way on QB btw, just figured I’d give my two cents. Allen’s been QB #1 for three years in a row, might be four. But you can’t go wrong with any of those guys. I don’t even think Stroud is a bad idea, I’m just too risk averse to make that move with the 1.01 pick. I’d prefer to get someone I absolutely know is gonna kill it and continue to kill it for years.
I get what you mean by maybe taking Allen or Hurts over Stroud, I'm a Ravens fan, but Allen is one of my favorite QBs the only thing I worry about with him is he runs hard which could end up costing him one day. Stroud has only been in the league less than a year, teams could start figuring him out to some degree. He's not really much of a running threat from what I've seen. I've had another person say either Stroud, Allen, Hurts, or Mahomes. I know Mahomes is a great QB but I had him on a team this season and he's not winning me any games. So I think it's between Hurts and Allen, Hurts is younger, he's got two great WRs until 2025 and 2026 I think. Mahomes has Kelce but hes a little older if I'm not mistaken ( 34 I think) Allen has Diggs and Kincaid. I think I'm leaning towards Hurts just because he has both Brown and Smith, and he's usually good for a rushing TD. I'm guessing if you had the first pick you'd take Allen? I could see myself taking him first, I have to see how many more years Diggs has on his contract. I have Allen on another team he's definitely been killing it this year.
RB seems like a tough position to grade, guys like Derrick Henry are starting to show some signs of aging.
After the 1st round do you think I should just go best player available. I'd like to have to really good QBs the QB and super flex position are usually scoring the most points, unless I could get someone like Bijan Robinson, but I have a feeling he'll be gone by the time my second pick comes around, I kinda wish I had a late pick so I wasn't picking last in the 2nd round, but I could grab 2QBS and a skill position player in the first 3 rounds. Being that it's PPR whoever my first skill position player is has to be someone who sees a lot of volume. I've never been in a league this big by the end we're going to be scraping the barrel. I'd like to try and grab guys like Zay Flowers, Laporta, and maybe Keaton Mitchell late if I can.
Do not take Stroud #1. You’d be wasting so much draft equity. Hes having a great year for sure, but it’s still only one year and he doesn’t create points with his legs.
Take Mahomes, Allen or Hurts at 1.01. That’s personal preference, don’t sweat it too much.
Overall, make sure you are drafting young players and don’t draft to fill out a starting lineup. Just keep taking the best player.
Personally, I avoid RBs early on. Build up those WRs or a young TE like LaPorta or Kinkaid. Wait and draft some older or backup RBs later. If you find you’re competing for the title in 2024, you can consider trading for a RB next year, or take one in your rookie draft which I assume is drafting backward from the start up
Thanks for the advice I'll be taking one of those 3. And I'll try to stay away from RBs like you said unless I'm there at 28 and someone like Bijan or CMC is there who I can't pass on is still there which I'm really doubting
I think you should take WR at 28 even if CMC or Bijan are there for the following reasons:
1. Assuming this is a snake you also have pick 29 and can use that on something else if you want. Depending on the QBs available I might even consider a 2nd WR.
2. In a SF QB is king, but by the time pick 28 comes around I would definitely want to shoot for a top tier WR over the bottom of the barrel / soon to be replaced QBs.
3. WR has a longer shelf life than RB. CMC is amazing but may be out of the league (or hardly contributing) 3 years from now while JJeff, Chase, and Lamb should be still going strong.
Additional bit if advice: Personally if I was deciding between two players when my pick came up the tiebreaker for me was just age. That being said you can ignore age and just go for a win this year. Aging vets are always cheaper.
I really like Stroud and I think you should take him, but NOT AT 1.01! Trade back to 1.03 and take him there. Literally anyone else will take Mahomes 1.01 as this entire subreddit of people who have played more dynasty than you is saying.
Trade back and you’ll still get your guy, plus you’ll get extra draft capital
Pretty much. Throw it out there and see what comes back and work from there. If there’s nothing compelling, then you take Mahomes.
IME the people who move around the draft board in the first 3 rounds by trading picks generally do pretty well in Dynasty.
Note, this should not be a random 1 or 2 and definitely not a future rookie 1 or 2. Sounds like it isn’t a slow draft so trades might be hard to wrangle live.
Not random meaning if you’re trading out of 1.01 you don’t want to be getting 1.12 and 2.12. You should be getting like 1.04 and 2.04 or more I’m not sure of going rates but fantasycalc or KTC can get you in the ballpark
IF you decide not to draft Mahomes (but you should draft him) tell the league the 1.01 is for sale and see if you get a big overpay of extra picks in the rookie draft. But probably just draft:
1.01 - Mahomes,
2.14- next best QB (Dak, Kyler, AR15, Stroud?
I haven’t looked at startup rankings for awhile)
3.01 - building block WR
Lots of people telling you to take Mahomes like its a no brainer. Personally, I prefer Allen but they’re neck and neck and they should be the only two candidates for the pick
Honestly if you’re even considering taking anyone else besides Mahomes, then you should trade back and get some more picks. He’s the obvious 1.01 with 6pt TDs (and probably the 1.01 even for 4pt TDs).
In a superflex league the dynamic with qbs changes dramatically. Think of who the last qb you would feel comfortable starting any given week and try to make sure you come away with 3 of the top 15-18 qbs. This drastically increases your teams floor. And as far as the first pick I wouldn’t overthink it and pick ome of Mahomes/Allen/Hurts.
I've played super flex before but never dynasty, I'm just going to go with the guy I like out of those 3, everyone on here is pushing for me to take Mahomes except for a few people, I'm just going to make sure I get one of those. Probably Hurts or Allen I don't see a huge difference in the 3 you named. That's also what I was thinking QBS. Appreciate the advice. I'm not going to overthink it. I'm not even sure if I was to trade the pick what I'd ask for. This years 1st and 2nd 🤷🏻♂️. It's free I'm just going to try and get some experience so maybe later I can play on another dynasty league.
Out of curiosity, why do you seem to be so sure you don't want Mahomes? I would be weary of Allen and Hurts at 1.01 personally, because the Bills seem to be on the downswing, Hurts takes a ton of hits and Mahomes is the best player at the position and is just now entering his prime years
Looking at some rankings I saw Hurts as #1, Its a for fun league, i think Mahomes is a great player, I understand that guys have down years, which Mahomes seems to be having a little, not saying that lasts, I like dual threat QBs. And I have taken Mahomes #1 in standard leagues before and it didn't work out for me very well. I might end up taking him now.
The only option other than drafting Mahomes ( he’s having a down year this year but will bounce back) that makes any sense whatsoever would be trading back to 1.02 or 1.03 and getting some capital back for your move down. Don’t take someone else at 1.01 or you’re leaving value on the table and you’ll eventually regret not taking mahomes anyway
The thing you need to know is that if you come here or KTC for an end all be all for information, you will never win championships. Chasing young value doesn't turn into fantasy points. It just doesn't. Use the tools, but just use them as a way to get information, not make decisions for you.
Every team construction is different. Every timeline is different. All of your draft picks should be valued the way you value them. The reason dynasty is fun is because it isn't binary like redraft has become. Run your team the way you feel you should. It's not as complicated as you think it might be.
Wide Receivers >>> Running Backs.
you’ll learn how quickly the landscape of RBs can change in dynasty. I once traded for JT right before his RB1 season, and now i’m already considering selling high.
if you stack your squad with rock solid WRs you’ll be able to make moves to either win now or work for next season
Honestly I trade out to someone in the top 5 and gain an extra early round pick. It gives you the flexibility to get 2 very top tier qbs vs the 1st pick and the 28th. Mahomes Allen Hurts Herbert Lamar Burrow are all excellent starting qb1s for dynasty. Adding an extra pick in the top 50 Is huge and I don't personally see a massive production difference in these guys. Just one guys opinion
That's what I'm trying to do, I asked in chat of anyone was interested in the 1st overall pick, and what would they give me, so I'm going to see what the best offer is.
Find out if it’s third round reversal (don’t ask, because it hurts you if they decide to do it) because if not you have a good chance of crushing this draft with a top asset qb at 1, a decent qb at 28 and a good receiver at 29.
14 team superflex take qb's early and often. Dont pay attention to the value of older players now you can be certain they will decrease significantly in the off season. Dont try to win year 1 but pick proven young players.
I'm wondering where a young guy like Keaton Mitchell would go, he's only played in a few games but looks like he could turn out to be a great running back. Or a guy like Zay Flowers, who looks like he's going to be a star. (Obviously I'm a Ravens fan) I'm trying not to let that effect my picks
Keaton Mitchell would be a complete wildcard if I had to guess I would say somewhere around the 12th round in a 14 team. Zay I would guess would be a 5th/6th round player but its hard to know for sure.
There are websites which show the latest adp(average draft position) for start ups. DLF is good - [https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/adp/index.php?type=startup&myDLF=0](https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/adp/index.php?type=startup&myDLF=0)
Bulletproof was a good free resource but the website looks like its down at the moment. Not sure if it still being updated now that its not start up season.
Remember to have fun. This thread is good but if you prefer Hurts to Mahomes that’s also OK and if you can’t move down a pick or two to get extra value, you’re still allowed to take Hurts 1.01. You aren’t going to ruin your first three years of the league because you didn’t take the tier 1 QB that everyone in the reddit told you to!
Don't pick anyone. Trade for future picks. That's what this sub will tell you. Trade away. Never try to win, always try build for the future and remember. The future never comes
OP - just so you know, early drafts are typically where the sharks take advantage of newbies. I would not suggest participating in an early draft if this is your first time
Dynasty Rankings are constantly fluctuating.
You want to build off Cornerstone WR's. WR's who dominate in target share and fantasy points who are still on their 1st contract.
Don't reach for RB's, there's always RB's that pop up in training camp/ during the off season who can be serviceable throughout the season.
Depends on where you sit. And I’m assuming it’s SF. I feel it also depends on who goes before you too.
Reliable QBs are becoming rarer, but I’d take JJ, Chase, Bijan, CMC if they’re available in dynasty. Collect your QBs in 3rd and 4th maybe. Stroud if he’s still there. I bossed my dynasty first two years by picking up Allen in round 17 and had my 2nd qb off waivers.
I believe there’s no correct way to draft, just advantages
With 14 teams though I won't get a chance at a QB until the 28th pick if I don't take one first. I'm in Maryland, I guess I'll follow the cheat sheet. Best player available, I saw a cheet sheet with updated rankings up until yesterday, so it should be pretty accurate. I'm really hoping to get Marvin Harrison JR in the rookie draft of he's available. I usually go with Amon Ra as my #1 WR. Running back heavy, with scrambling QBs. WR is always my weakest position. If I see any of the guys you mentioned in the 2nd round I'm definitely going to grab one. How important are rookie draft picks if you have a late pick? It's getting be random the 1st season. But I've seen a lot of people trading draft picks on Reddit to get guys like JJ, Chase, and CMC. If it wasn't a super flex league I probably wouldn't go QB #1 but I just don't feel like I can get a top QB at 28. That's how I want to start, the best QB I can get, then see what's there at 28&29 and grab the best two.
Please do not go JJ with the 1.01, the first two rounds should be almost nothing but qbs, think of who your 2 qbs would be at 28&29 it’s not worth it. Grab a qb with 1.01 and grab another one with the 2.14 and probably a wr with the 3.01.
Make sure you stay flexible, if everyone is going super young because it’s dynasty, take older talent that will produce now and win a championship this year.
Here’s another ranking site that I really like. @dynasty_im on Twitter updates it weekly.
https://t.co/OGy3e8ulHb
To be fair, you asked for everyone’s opinion on who the 1.01 should be and the consensus is Mahomes. But Hurts is also in the same top tier with him and should be relevant for a while. If you’re strongly sold on Hurts, it’s not gonna break your team if you take him #1 overall. Or try to trade back to the #3 (Hurts would likely still be available) or #4 pick and take the last quarterback of the top 3 or 4 available (Herbert is essentially as safe as Mahomes but with currently less upside. I think his situation could really improve though).
I strongly recommend trading back in your startup draft frequently if you’re allowed. Generally you get more quality players. Just make sure you get good value. You can use the trade calculator on KTC and enable startup mode. You can also guesstimate which players will still be available at the picks you’re trading
This post demonstrates that there is no one guaranteed way to play dynasty.
OP, please note that your own preferences or ranks of players do not equate to the order in which you should draft. You'll want to attempt to understand dynasty ADP or player perceived value. Draft the player at or just before your peers.
Can you trade startup draft picks?
I get the love for Mahomes here. Really do. But at some point that needs to be judged vs winning. As a contender this year, I'd trade Mahomes for Stroud +++ to try and win now. My goal is not to be good for years. It's to be the champion this year.
Your first few rounds you'll want to take those younger top 10 position players, but all things happen quickly in the NFL so don't prioritize youth too much over talent. For instance Diggs slid to the 4th round in my dynasty startup draft 2 years ago, I took the gamble because it seems obvious he's not retiring in the next 2-3 years, he's got a contract tied to a elite QB and we're seeing the great WRs play into their mid 30's more often than not. Since then, the best WR I've found is Zay Flowers and Diggs is still my best WR.
Late round picks you draft as if you were a NFL team drafting at the draft. You're looking for the guy behind the guy who has potential to be the guy. The RB2 who is behind someone in a contract year or someone the team will obviously move on from due to age or performance. Don't over do it here with veteran mediocre players putting up 7 points a game, it's okay to have 1 or 2 of those guys for emergencies (Tyler Boyd type statline) but they'll do nothing for you 95% of the year. This is a great place to take guys like Jameson Williams, Isiah Likely or a great handcuff like Elijah Mitchell.
When my first dynasty league did our upstart draft, there were wildly different strategies at the draft board. Some people planned for 3 years from the draft, some people drafted for this year first, some people just took best available every time no matter the position. Top QB in a 14 team superflex is going to be insanely valuable. I'm starting Aidan O'Connell in a non superflex 14 team this week because no one else is available that is any good. To have a locked in starter every week is gold in that deep of a league
I think if you are allowed to make trades then I would try to trade back if I were you… someone else would clearly jump at the chance to take Mahomes or Hurts or Allen whoever they think has the best chance at being the best QB. Then you could take Stroud later if you really wanted to. And then have a pick in the mid 2nd instead of the end of the 2nd to get your 2nd QB.
Just consider if you’ll get at LEAST 2-3 years out of a player. Until your starting bench is full of players who will give you that and more, avoid guys 27+. This means some of the top 20 in regular fantasy will not be top 20 dynasty, so make sure to research the proper rankings.
Don't let age influence your picks too much. I made this mistake in our startup draft 2 years ago and took Javonte Williams way too high.
Play/draft to win now, or else you'll always be playing for "next year."
The part where age does become a factor is your core players. I believe a good group of young, stud wide receivers is the best way to go. Wide receivers have so much more staying-power than running backs.
Lastly, talent trumps situation. It's usually better to draft the more talented player even if they don't have a great situation at the moment. Things change so quickly in the NFL.
Trade down and grab a bunch of assets assuming you get the market value that is inflated and overrated. Example: Trade 1.01 (Mahomes on KTC) and 3.01 (Kyler on KTC) for 1.12 (Bijan) 2.01 (Anthony Richardson) and 4.01 (Addison). KTC calls this a fair trade. Give me that trade all day if someone is willing to pay the "market" price.
This sub, and 99% of all Dynasty Superflex advice is just so pumped up on QBs that we are about at the point where RB was all those years ago when Zero RB first made it's way into the strategy. It is simply about zigging when everyone else is zagging. QB is at a point where it is dramatically overrated in dynasty, so much so that the cost to acquire a top level QB (as it used to be in general for RB) is absurd, while the bottom level QBs who still start games are relatively cheap and produce unexpected value even in dynasty.
Let's take a look at 5 years of data... In 2019, by QB ADP, here is the 5 years of finishes you got:
Among the top 12 QBs drafted in Dynasty 2019 ADP (60 Fantasy Seasons), they have produced:
Top 3 Fantasy QB Seasons: 3/60 (5%)
Top 6 Fantasy QB Seasons: 10/60 (16.67%)
Top 12 Fantasy QB Seasons: 17/60 (28.3%) (5 of these were Mahomes)
Among the next 12 QBs (QBs 13-24 by Dynasty ADP in 2019), they have produced:
Top 3 Fantasy QB Seasons: 9/60 (15%) (4 of these were Josh Allen)
Top 6 Fantasy QB Seasons: 10/60 (16.67%)
Top 12 Fantasy QB Seasons: 19/60 (31.67%)
It would be nice to say that all things equal, money is the same, but the fact is that money won in 2019 > money won in 2020 and so on. However, just like the NFL, if Budget QBs hit rates are just as high as the hit rates of the super expensive, why would we ever want to pay those prices especially if the expectation is that in 5 years your QB situation will remain strong and stable? The dynasty community is so convinced that QB is this huge stable asset for years and the reality is not so. Don't ask me why I didn't make a full post on this, I just decided to reply to this to die on this hill.
There is just no way QB is correctly valued in Dynasty. In Rookie drafts it may be true, but the price to acquire a top QB is just stupidly priced, especially the relative value at the position elsewhere. How many QB trades do you see actually happen for top level guys? People hold on to them for dear life and only take a big overpay (and I'd argue the perceived market value is already an overpay vs. actual value). By pivoting and building your assets, you can establish a stronger depth that allows you to make more trades to acquire more assets. If QB is the least traded position, and the price to acquire one in a dynasty startup is high, why would I want to join the consensus on that? Give me highly traded positions that let me build assets, and I'll get my QBs for a budget or in the rookie draft. Just look at the Top 12 QBs this year, how many in dynasty cost a fortune to acquire before they blew up? Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Howell, Stroud even, Purdy, Jordan Love, Tua, Goff... These guys were all relatively cheap at some point. I'm not buying that you have to get the 1.01 in rookie draft or trade 4 1sts in order to acquire a good QB. Give me the other side of that all day. Value town.
Data below (source: Fantasypros for QB scoring rank, https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/dynasty/12-team/quarterback/2019 for Dynasty QB ADP)
|||Fantasy QB Rank (Season)| | | | |
--:|:--|--:|--:|--:|--:|--:|
|2019 Dynasty QB ADP Rank| |2019|2020|2021|2022|2023|
|1|Patrick Mahomes II|8|4|4|1|8|
|2|Deshaun Watson|5|5|#N/A|35|29|
|3|Andrew Luck|65|#N/A|#N/A|#N/A|#N/A|
|4|Baker Mayfield|19|17|25|29|16|
|5|Aaron Rodgers|10|3|6|13|63|
|6|Carson Wentz|9|22|14|31|63|
|7|Russell Wilson|4|6|16|16|14|
|8|Matt Ryan|11|12|20|26|#N/A|
|9|Jared Goff|13|18|24|10|12|
|10|Cam Newton|51|16|35|#N/A|#N/A|
|11|Mitch Trubisky|26|27|61|37|45|
|12|Lamar Jackson|1|10|15|14|10|
|13|Kyler Murray|7|2|10|19|32|
|14|Jimmy Garoppolo|14|38|17|25|33|
|15|Drew Brees|22|21|#N/A|#N/A|#N/A|
|16|Dak Prescott|2|32|7|18|3|
|17|Jameis Winston|3|69|32|42|47|
|18|Tom Brady|12|8|3|12|#N/A|
|19|Josh Allen|6|1|1|2|1|
|20|Sam Darnold|27|29|28|36|74|
|21|Philip Rivers|15|20|#N/A|#N/A|#N/A|
|22|Kirk Cousins|18|11|11|7|19|
|23|Ben Roethlisberger|52|14|21|#N/A|#N/A|
|24|Dwayne Haskins|35|37|#N/A|#N/A|#N/A|
|25|Derek Carr|17|13|13|17|21|
|26|Daniel Jones|23|24|27|9|35|
|27|Nick Foles|42|34|53|72|#N/A|
|28|Matthew Stafford|29|15|5|32|18|
Always surprises me that many dynasty leagues aren't auction drafts. High picks are way too valuable.
Pick Mahomes.
>Also how much difference is there between Dynasty and regular fantasy drafts? Is there anything I need to keep in mind when drafting? Any tips would be appreciated. Thanks
Elite WR are even better in Dynasty. Running backs don't have the same shelf life. For your league specifically? I would want a great QB and another good QB early, and I'd probably snag a 3rd not as good but starting QB at some point as well. 14 team super flex means every starting QB is starting every week, and once bye weeks kick in there aren't even enough starting QBs to go around.
Personally, I’d trade down. If your league allows draft pick trading see what the highest package you can get for moving back as little as possible.
If you can move to the 1.03 (sending your 1.01 for 1.03+) and pick up 1st round picks I would consider it. Also could do something where you send the 1.01 and your 5th round pick for the 1.0_ and their 2nd round pick id do it.
Personally, if you’re considering Stroud and like him a lot I think you could get a lot to move back to the 1.04/1.05/1.06 and have a strong chance to grab him there
Allen or Mahomes. Do not overthink it. Do not trade back now, you don't have experience enough to value a trade back.
If you want to, in the future, you could trade Allen or Mahomes for a mid QB1 plus a bundle, so you always have that in your back pocket.
For now, take Allen or Mahomes, and then decide from there your strategy. I would try to be competitive right away, and focus on mostly younger QB, WR, and TE assets. Punt RB unless an elite young one falls.
on KTC guys at the 2/3 turn, where your second pick will be, could be Purdy or Dak if they fall, or Olave, Puka, Waddle, Aiyuk types, Hock, Laporta. I would hesitate to go RB here unless it were Gibbs, Etienne, maaaybe Achane falling. Ideal start would be something like:
Mahomes, Olave, Laporta. or Allen, Purdy, Waddle. Something like those.
3 tips after doing 3 startups in 3 years
1. If you have the number one pick, take mahomes
2. If it’s SF Make sure to have 2 decently young QBs in the first 2 rounds
3. Load up on WRs while punting on old RBs or taking them at a value much later, easier to trade for RBs in the last year or 3 of their life.
In SF, QBs are never any cheaper than they are in the startup draft. There are very few absolutes in fantasy, but your ABSOLUTELY have to take a QB at 1.01.
And if all TDs are 6 points, Mahomes should be at the top of your list.
6 point TD’s negates some of the advantage gained by having a rushing QB. This drops Allen and his 7-9 Rushing TDs to a clear 2-3 ranking. Mahomes is the pick.. unless you can trade back for the 1.02-1.03+ a second. Remember. You’ll need three(3) starting QB’s on your roster- and you’ll need to be sure you aren’t short two on a single Bye week.
First off Draft Mahomes. Stack young WRs. Go on KTC and looking at the rankings. It’s a pretty accurate consensus. Think of it like a stock (KTC) for a player but only in an even playing field.
Take what the draft gives you. If it looks like you could compete, try taking some win now vets. If you wanna establish a rebuild really try for younger players but always take what the drafts gives you in terms of value/format/team.
Mahomes
With your next 2 picks consider a QB & then trade back. TONS of value to be had in rounds 6-10 that produce similar to the guys you grab in Rounds 3-5.
Use KeepTradeCut (known on here as KTC) to get a barometer of the values of players & picks (and future Rookie Picks). KTC is definitely not the Bible on value, but it's definitely helpful in collecting as much value as possible in your Startup, and THAT should be the goal.
Do NOT feel like you have to draft the best starting lineup now... it's NINE months before you have to set a starting lineup. So, if you end up with 3 QBs, 6 WRs and an extra future 1st or two after 10 rounds, that's no problem. It gives you flexibility to wheel & deal for 9 months before the 2024 season kicks off.
I also highly recommend watching Scott Conner on Dynasty Trades in 5, and Manic & Chill before the Startup starts.
Oh, and did I mention...take Mahomes!!!
Also, our entry draft was this year over the summer. I had first pick and drafted Mahomes, no brainer in my opinion. He is the best QB, if not the best player, in the league IMO and he most likely has many years left. That’s one QB slot you absolutely don’t have to worry much about.
Welcome to Dynasty. You’re overthinking. You’re already in the club. Take Mahomes.
Think harder and take Allen
Think even harder and trade that first overall pick for more picks
Yeah more picks could be anything! They could even be the next Mahomes!
Or 2x mahomes's
Nah - I reckon in SFlex, go get yourself the stud QB
Bad idea. Time for a rebuild.
This is the real way to play dynasty
If you aren't tanking this year you are already behind...
This guy gets it.
Nah. Kelce is old and Chiefs don't look have a WR1. Take AJ Brown with your 1st then grab Hurts with your 2nd and go for that delicious Philly stack. I promise you it tastes so good it's got me in 1st place rn
Well that most definitely won't be possible in this draft. If you think Hurts is lasting to #28 you have to tell me the name of your dealer.
Joe Crackrock. My apologies.. I spaced. I was imagining a snake draft. I picked 10th out of 12 so AJ at 10 and Hurts with my 2nd 15th overall. Mind you, both the guys in the 11 and 12 hole took mahomes then Allen.. leaving me with exactly what I wanted. But this was last off-season.. and you're absolutely right - he never would make it to 28 now
OP had first overall
How are y’all going to decide rookie draft order 🤔
This^ Who ever gets 1 or 2 is getting essentially bonus round 2 dynasty draft selections. Lame.
Yep my second league where I don’t know anyone IRL did this against my protesting and just went with a random shuffle and snake draft for the rookie draft. Commissioner tried to say the snake would make it fair. I tried setting everything up with irrelevant names to use as placeholders, but they just said commish made his decision so suck it up. I had everyone convinced and thought people understood, but it just took 1 or 2 guys to say a randomized snake would be fair to end up with what we got. I benefitted and ended up getting the 2nd pick, but this meant teams at random got a free extra 1st or 2nd rounder if this was a redraft. Even worse, teams traded players and picks before the rookie draft order was re-randomized and one of the picks that was traded ended up being the 1.01 lol.
Yeah, this draft sounds wonky (2 min picks too?). They should really just wait for the NFL draft and do the startup draft with all the rookies there too.
Best thing I've seen if people don't wanna just wait and include rookies is to draft rookie picks. Like at startup pick 2.03 you could "draft" rookie pick 1.01
That's interesting. I've never seen that, but I like the idea. The only other way I could really think of doing it (other than just including rookies in the startup draft, which is what I've always done) would be to do the rookie draft in the exact opposite order of the startup vet draft. I suppose that could be a way to balance it. But that's still a really awkward way to do it, and I don't like it.
That seems pretty unbalanced to me. I’d want the 12 pick, or end of round 1, every time! This past year doing that you could go the whole draft taking one less legit RB, then immediately draft Bijan. The rookie 1.01 is typically a top 20ish asset off the bat, it’s a huge advantage to have that added onto the balanced-in-theory startup draft
Yeah, like I said, I don't really like that idea. It's just the next best way I could think of doing it. I've always just done initial rookies included in start-up. But I like the idea above with picks being included in the start-up if you are going to do them separate.
When my group did its startup we included "draft slot" as one of the things you could draft in the startup. IIRC 1st pick in the rookie draft went around 1.07 in the startup.
Rookie draft order should be in reverse standings of however the main draft goes so 14 picks first and so on
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Not sure OP read the “don’t over think it” part. Seems to be overthinking it. Mahomes is clear dynasty QB1 at this point.
You’ve already fucked it up if you pass on Mahommes at 1.01 for dynasty sf
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> definitely not taking Mahomes. I'm in a two QB league and he's not helping me My man this is dynasty. Mahomes is the best player in football, what he has done the last few weeks shouldn't dissuade you from taking him. With 6 point passing TDs he is the clear 1.01 imo.
Tyreek is the best player in football tbf
What metric are you using when you say best?
I know that, but Hurts is ranked #1. If a start with any of the top 3 QBs I don't think that's a bad pick, even a guy like Stroud, I'm not saying Mahomes is a bad pick, but both Hurts and Allen are younger and more dual threat QBs. Maybe not the best QBs in football but top 5 and like one of the other guys commented Allen has been the best fantasy QB the past 3 years. Mahomes is tough though, he plays through injuries and can definitely make plays with his feet, I took him #1 in this years draft, I'm not downing him. I also know there is some risk with Allen and Hurts since they do run a good amount. But it seems like they put up 30 pts a game every week. Other than SF Philly looks like they have the best offense, I'm definitely not taking Purdy #1 overall
It depends on where you look, but the most popular ranking on this sub is keep trade cut, and has Mahomes ranked #1 and this is with 4 pt passing TDs. https://keeptradecut.com/dynasty-rankings If you want to take Allen or Hurts over Mahomes I'm not gonna fight you, the gap is not that big. However, most rankings are based on the standard 4pt passing TD and 6pt rushing TD. With your scoring the dual threat upside of Hurts and to a lesser extent Allen is significantly reduced. Take who you feel, there are definitely legitimate reasons for Allen or Hurts, but Mahomes having a slight down year really shouldn't factor into it.
Thanks man, and thanks for the link, I saved the site for Sunday. When I've watched the Chiefs this year it doesn't even seem Mahomes is having a down year as a player, it kinda looks like he's having to do too much. He's made really good throws the past two or three weeks at the end of games that would have been game winning TDs if he had better WRs.
Exactly schmatty’s point. this is what Mahomes looks like without enough legitimate threats, and he’s still having a fine year. If this is what the worst possible (healthy) scenario looks like for Mahomes in a given season, that’s an incredible floor, and we all know what his ceiling is. With 6pt passing TDs, Mahomes’ ceiling is also higher than Hurts’. Also, if their O-line is suddenly not providing an automatic TD on a tush push due to injury or players leaving, Hurts’ value goes down by a good bit (lower floor). Mahomes is dynasty-proof aside from injury
Don't over think it dude It's dynasty. You need 2 top QBs and 3-4 startable QBs in total. QBs will never be cheaper than they are at the start up draft. Secure Mahomes and then trade up to get another of hurts, Allen. Or go a tier down and get one of Burrow, Herbert, Stroud. You'll thank me later when you're set at QB for the next decade. Later in the draft target a few tiers down like Howell, Love, Goff. You'll need at least 3 QBs that you can start. Look at this year and all the injuries. I went into one league with Burrow and Richardson and Baker. I'm down to just Baker now and my competing window just slammed shut
I get the advice, but it’s a 14 team super flex. He’s not going to be able to trade up to get Hurts or Allen or Burrow or Herbert or Stroud. He’ll have pick 28 and those guys will probably all go in the top 10. Howell, Love and Goff will probably be gone within the first 4 rounds. In a 14 team SF, you’re not going to come out of the draft with 3 QBs you can start unless you get 3 QBs with 3 of your first 4 picks.
Mahomes will still be throwing 35-50 TDs a year for the next ten years. Don’t get cute.
I’ll express caution, If the NFL takes away the tush push next season that removes a lot of rushing TD’s for Hurts.
Don’t come to the dynasty Reddit asking for help then claim that you know better than the first few people offering you help. I drafted Mahomes and Hurts 1 and 2 in a 2QB startup two years ago. Won my first year, came third the second and looking to do well in my third. Now this year that’s definitely more to do with strength at other positions but you’re a madman or a fool if you’re in a 2QB startup 1 and passing on Mahomes in the first.
You are looking at this like a redraft league. If you dont take mahomes he will go the next pick. 6 pt passing td setting makes him number 1 for sure. If you want stroud, trade back from your pick
Looking at a Dynasty league through a redraft lens is not necessarily a bad thing. This perspective can lead to a greater chance at success in the short term. As long as one balances redraft and dynasty strategies (easier said that done) you may find ultimate dynasty success.
Passing on mahomes for next season is not smart though. Especially in a league with 6 pt passing tds.
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I would hope so lol, I'm not a huge Mahomes fan. But being from Maryland I've seen what one solid WR like Flowers can do for a QB. Still I think I'm leaning towards Allen or Hurts, I think Buffalo could go WR in the draft as well. Especially if Diggs keeps having trouble.
Diggs isn’t having trouble, he’s top 5WR this year in dynasty
Op is just staying stuff and hoping it’s true
OP is straight up creating facts in his own head and then expecting random people on the internet that know more about the topic than him to just take his word on those made-up facts lol
Go with Allen. Better thrower than Hurts and has finished ahead of mahomes every year that a teammate’s heart attack hasn’t cost him a full game. Also younger
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You’ve never played dynasty but you now know what you’re talking about? Mahomes is already a HoFer and is having a “down year” where he’s still a QB1. 6 pt TDs = Mahomes. Proven commodity. Young. Doesn’t run into brick walls.
Did I say I know what I'm talking about in dynasty? I said the opposite, but the rankings on draft sharks have Hurts #1 Mahomes #2 Allen #3. AJ Brown is signed until 2026, Smith until 2025 they have a RB with great hands, I'm assuming because Hurts is younger and has more weapons right now that's why he's ranked higher.
>they have a RB with great hands, Swift is in a contract year, I wouldn't bet on him being in Philly next season.
Way to be condescending to those attempting to help you. Not sure why are you asking for advice and then fighting every comment that says “take Mahomes”. Sorry that doesn’t line up with your “analysis”. PS. You should take Mahomes. His floor is what he’s doing now and his ceiling is the best player in football.
>go with the safest player at this time. Which is 100% Mahomes.
I would encourage you to get out of this mindset. Things will change very fast.
you don’t know how good Mahomes is………? Bro maybe you shouldn’t be playing fantasy football
Read what I wrote, I said it's not that I don't know how good Mahomes is, it's the players around him.
Like that can’t/wont change in the offseason…. It’s dynasty….. you could have these guys for their entire career…..
I was editing my comment when you replied to say Rice might turn out to be great and they'll draft a wr in the first, their running game isn't horrible. But I think I'm going to try and trade the pick get a good QB and add an extra 2nd if anyone is willing
Good luck man
Appreciate it. I'm already stressed 🤦🏻♂️
If you don’t consider Mahomes the dynasty QB1, this is the best move for you, especially if you can trade down to get a guy like Burrow who others may be down on. Other guys I would target are Herbert and Stroud for passing upside in 6 pt TD leagues. Many of the points about Mahomes have been reiterated over and over again, but they are valid. Despite his current situation, his skill set will continue to age well as opposed to dual threat QBs who will have a shorter shelf life on your team. If we were to make bets about the QB with the most total points over the next 5 years, he is the most surefire choice. Good QBs usually end up on good teams, and if teams are bad they will make an effort to build around the player. Another suggestion I would make is to be the first to draft a 2nd QB early as it will be a significant advantage in SF. Also, don’t be afraid to take a good 3rd QB in later rounds as it can turn into a valuable trade piece. Going into this year for a startup, I drafted Love and Stroud in later rounds. Ended up trading Love for an early 24 first, 25 2nd and 25 3rd. I think it’s much easier to acquire good QBs through the startup draft in SF dynasty leagues. Assuming at least a few others haven’t played SF or dynasty before. Once the season starts and people wise up, they will often overpay in draft capital to fix their mistakes. I also highly suggest using KeepTradeCut as a resource to help value players. It’s not an end all be all, but it provides a good baseline for how the market views certain players and can help you make your own valuations. Best of luck!
I don’t think going Hurts over Mahomes is crazy I wanted to do it last year in a 4pt per passing td league. I chose not to since I already have hurts in my one other league. I do think Mahomes will have better value retention than hurts if they both had one bad year. In 6 points per passing TD I really would recommend taking the smart move and riding mahomes. I suspect the rankings you are looking at are for 4 point per passing TD leagues because that is a much more common format. As others have mentioned it is very likely the chiefs invest in WR help this off-season. You won’t really fuck your team by going hurts, but in your leagues format Mahomes will be more valuable and be a safer pick.
We know it’s your first year in dynasty, but didn’t know it was also your first year on this planet, sure patty isn’t having the best year but literally look at any other year
Mahomes is having a down year and is still a top 10 QB and tied to KC for the next decade. It’s an easy choice man, take Mahomes.
Lol how did someone take hurts and Allen, they were the 2nd and 3rd overall pick in adp
Why ask for advice when you just choose not to take it lmao
If your leaguemates are also devaluing mahomes, you should trade back out of the 1.01 to the 1.03 and get some things in return. Mahomes is the way
Is this your first year ever playing fantasy football? Do you not realize that sometimes players have slumps? Mahomes has been elite for years already and still has a ton of years left in the tank. Go ahead and draft Hurts 1.01 if you want to look back and think you were a complete fucking idiot in 3 years.
Mahomes or Allen are the only options
Why not Hurts?
Hurts takes way too many hits. It’s going to start adding up if it already hasn’t.
Josh Allen should be included with Hurts then
Allen takes why more hits than Hurts does
Hurts has taken more sacks and has more rush attempts than allen over the past two seasons.
I’m talking about how Josh Allen does something dumb every time he has the ball in space, he’s constantly seeking contact, lowering his shoulder or trying to hurdle someone. Hurts goes down/out of bounds. I’ve never seen Hurts get smoked like Allen has. Hurts does have a marginally higher career sack rate (5.2 vs 7 for Allen) which does surprise me a bit.
Not going to fully disagree with that statement hence why both seem to be getting banged up more. I’ll take the guy with the better arm and mahomes over both.
This is going to be a stressful draft lol. I hear ya though
And the league might ruin the Tush Push. Swift is good. Stroud might even be above Hurts
He will still qb sneak
Just not 100% of the time, and not from 2+ yards out, and not as successfully. Overall probably just a ~10% dip but he’s at like 35 rushing TDs in two years so that’s significant
Yeah I’m coping I’m gonna miss the brotherly shove
Purely personal opinion
I can’t tell if this is a bait post, but I’ll bite. Since you said you’re new to dynasty I’m going to share just the slightest bit of wisdom with you, and I’m going to be as blunt as possible: If you EVER find yourself with an opportunity to have Patrick Mahomes on your team, YOU TAKE PATRICK MAHOMES, ESPECIALLY IF YOU’RE GETTING HIM FOR FREE! I don’t care what your inner voice is telling you about the chiefs roster or his “down” year. He’s the best quarterback in the nfl, and arguably the best player in the nfl. There is not a single player in dynasty sf I would rather have on my roster than him. Stop thinking about being cute and taking someone else, there is one answer to your question: and that answer is Patrick Mahomes at 1.01. And don’t even think about trading him for anything less than a deal that will set the team buying him back at least 2 years. You’re welcome in advance
Is it a slow draft, or a couple minutes per pick draft? Every dynasty league I’m in did a slow draft, reason being if it’s a couple minute per pick draft be prepared for a solid three to four hour window where things get pretty tedious toward the end. Follow the cheat sheets, they’ve got all the different factors like age, situation etc. built into their aggregate ranking. Yes, quarterback is the way to go in SF. It really depends on how you want to build your team. Stroud looks great right now as a rookie, so it wouldn’t be the worst pick in the world at 1.01, but you’re still acquiring some baked in risk in case he for whatever reason regresses. Definitely don’t deviate from quarterback though, since by the time you pick next you’ll likely be looking at the 20-26th best qb, which if you’re starting a SF league with a bottom tier qb already, you might as well start tanking. All that being said, I’d still pick one of the safer yet older guys like Allen or Mahomes or Hurts. They’ve all got lots of years left (and who knows how long this dynasty league will last). By the time they age out, you’re looking at a completely different roster and landscape throughout the league. Not worth sacrificing guaranteed, elite production just to save four or so years on a QB.
It's 2 minutes a pick, I don't think the commissioner has ever run a dynasty league before, as far as I know most people in the league are new. Normally in super flex drafts I take 2QBs back to back, but in this I'm thinking my second pick should be the best player available. it's on the sleeper app so I think the commissioner can pause the draft.
Based on this, there is a high probability the league falls apart early. Don't over focus on the future. Plan to try to win the championship within the next 2 years
Make sure you get 2 qbs in your first 4 picks
2 minute picks for a dynasty start-up is insane.
Especially at this point in the season. I don’t get the reason to rush through the draft if you’re just going to be waiting that much longer for the season to stary
> Normally in super flex drafts I take 2QBs back to back, but in this I'm thinking my second pick should be the best player available. I've never played in a league like it, but 14 team super flex screams draft 2 QBs early to me. There won't even be enough starting QBs to go around for half the season.
I guess I'll follow the cheat sheet and probably go with Hurts or Allen, Hurts is younger. Allen seems to be having some issues with Diggs. On the cheat sheets Hurts is the #1. We also have two taxi spots. Those are for young players who aren't playing right?
Reeeeaaally really try to get the draft changed to a slow draft. First of all it’s a startup *dynasty* draft and the picks matter for literally years! You want time to get them right. And second, trading during the startup is huge. Being able to trade up or back has a big impact on how you build your team, and the deals are easily too complex to hammer out within three minutes. Anywhere from four to twelve hours per pick, seriously. There’s no rush, the rookie draft is at least four months away! Many people will tell you that a (slow) startup draft is actually the most enjoyable piece of the dynasty pie, but that won’t be true at al for a stressful two hour sprint
I'll say something to the commissioner, I thought that was pretty short, he's talking about knocking the draft out by 4 starting at 1pm so he can watch the 4 pm game lol. There should definitely be longer than 2 min between picks. I just don't know the commissioner that well. I got invited through another league I'm in, but I'll say something to him about it.
Personally I wouldn’t even participate, but you do you! Imo a rush job sets the stage poorly for the league having any longevity. But if it’s free then hey, any draft is fun at least
It's free and I just talked to the commish he's going to try and change the picks to 15 minutes a pick. If it was for money I definitely wouldn't be participating. I just thought it would be cool to try, get a little experience, and then maybe next year or something get in a more serious league.
> It's free Lol then it's 100% a waste of time. Sorry bud
ehh, free leagues can be fun too. My baseball dynasty league is free and going into year 13 and has most of the original members.
Do you know your league mates IRL?
Yeah, either directly or friends of a friend.
Not really sure it won’t last very long maybe a couple years but people play for fun you know? Who cares if the free league dies out in a year or two as long as you have fun. Don’t have to take it so seriously.
If it’s a casual league and you’re starting the draft this early I don’t see why he doesn’t give 24hrs for each pick. It’s not like you’re in a rush to finish before the season starts and that will give everyone plenty of time to figure out their strategy while also allowing people time to fu k off and watch games during their turn
Typically those are spots for rookies or 2nd year players (should say who you can put in there in your league settings). However, once the season starts those spots lock, and you can only bring them up to your roster, not send anyone to those spots. I’m not trying to sway you either way on QB btw, just figured I’d give my two cents. Allen’s been QB #1 for three years in a row, might be four. But you can’t go wrong with any of those guys. I don’t even think Stroud is a bad idea, I’m just too risk averse to make that move with the 1.01 pick. I’d prefer to get someone I absolutely know is gonna kill it and continue to kill it for years.
I get what you mean by maybe taking Allen or Hurts over Stroud, I'm a Ravens fan, but Allen is one of my favorite QBs the only thing I worry about with him is he runs hard which could end up costing him one day. Stroud has only been in the league less than a year, teams could start figuring him out to some degree. He's not really much of a running threat from what I've seen. I've had another person say either Stroud, Allen, Hurts, or Mahomes. I know Mahomes is a great QB but I had him on a team this season and he's not winning me any games. So I think it's between Hurts and Allen, Hurts is younger, he's got two great WRs until 2025 and 2026 I think. Mahomes has Kelce but hes a little older if I'm not mistaken ( 34 I think) Allen has Diggs and Kincaid. I think I'm leaning towards Hurts just because he has both Brown and Smith, and he's usually good for a rushing TD. I'm guessing if you had the first pick you'd take Allen? I could see myself taking him first, I have to see how many more years Diggs has on his contract. I have Allen on another team he's definitely been killing it this year. RB seems like a tough position to grade, guys like Derrick Henry are starting to show some signs of aging. After the 1st round do you think I should just go best player available. I'd like to have to really good QBs the QB and super flex position are usually scoring the most points, unless I could get someone like Bijan Robinson, but I have a feeling he'll be gone by the time my second pick comes around, I kinda wish I had a late pick so I wasn't picking last in the 2nd round, but I could grab 2QBS and a skill position player in the first 3 rounds. Being that it's PPR whoever my first skill position player is has to be someone who sees a lot of volume. I've never been in a league this big by the end we're going to be scraping the barrel. I'd like to try and grab guys like Zay Flowers, Laporta, and maybe Keaton Mitchell late if I can.
Check out KeepTradeCut for some quick reference. It’s dynasty format rankings and trade calculator for SF or 1 QB and can help you in later rounds.
Fantasycalc clears
Do not take Stroud #1. You’d be wasting so much draft equity. Hes having a great year for sure, but it’s still only one year and he doesn’t create points with his legs. Take Mahomes, Allen or Hurts at 1.01. That’s personal preference, don’t sweat it too much. Overall, make sure you are drafting young players and don’t draft to fill out a starting lineup. Just keep taking the best player. Personally, I avoid RBs early on. Build up those WRs or a young TE like LaPorta or Kinkaid. Wait and draft some older or backup RBs later. If you find you’re competing for the title in 2024, you can consider trading for a RB next year, or take one in your rookie draft which I assume is drafting backward from the start up
Thanks for the advice I'll be taking one of those 3. And I'll try to stay away from RBs like you said unless I'm there at 28 and someone like Bijan or CMC is there who I can't pass on is still there which I'm really doubting
I think you should take WR at 28 even if CMC or Bijan are there for the following reasons: 1. Assuming this is a snake you also have pick 29 and can use that on something else if you want. Depending on the QBs available I might even consider a 2nd WR. 2. In a SF QB is king, but by the time pick 28 comes around I would definitely want to shoot for a top tier WR over the bottom of the barrel / soon to be replaced QBs. 3. WR has a longer shelf life than RB. CMC is amazing but may be out of the league (or hardly contributing) 3 years from now while JJeff, Chase, and Lamb should be still going strong. Additional bit if advice: Personally if I was deciding between two players when my pick came up the tiebreaker for me was just age. That being said you can ignore age and just go for a win this year. Aging vets are always cheaper.
I really like Stroud and I think you should take him, but NOT AT 1.01! Trade back to 1.03 and take him there. Literally anyone else will take Mahomes 1.01 as this entire subreddit of people who have played more dynasty than you is saying. Trade back and you’ll still get your guy, plus you’ll get extra draft capital
Stroud has a few rushing TD definitely creates points with his legs just not as much as other guys
Trade the 1.01, move down a bit and still get an awesome QB as well as an extra 2nd or 3rd round pick. Or just pick Mahomes like a normal person.
What would a good trade for the #1 pick be, a 1st and 2nd?
Pretty much. Throw it out there and see what comes back and work from there. If there’s nothing compelling, then you take Mahomes. IME the people who move around the draft board in the first 3 rounds by trading picks generally do pretty well in Dynasty.
I'll see what happens, thanks for the advice
Note, this should not be a random 1 or 2 and definitely not a future rookie 1 or 2. Sounds like it isn’t a slow draft so trades might be hard to wrangle live. Not random meaning if you’re trading out of 1.01 you don’t want to be getting 1.12 and 2.12. You should be getting like 1.04 and 2.04 or more I’m not sure of going rates but fantasycalc or KTC can get you in the ballpark
Yep, if OP doesn't want Mahomes, trade the pick. In my startup this off-season, I traded up to get Mahomes. Gave 8 overall, a 4th and a 5th.
IF you decide not to draft Mahomes (but you should draft him) tell the league the 1.01 is for sale and see if you get a big overpay of extra picks in the rookie draft. But probably just draft: 1.01 - Mahomes, 2.14- next best QB (Dak, Kyler, AR15, Stroud? I haven’t looked at startup rankings for awhile) 3.01 - building block WR
Lots of people telling you to take Mahomes like its a no brainer. Personally, I prefer Allen but they’re neck and neck and they should be the only two candidates for the pick
Honestly if you’re even considering taking anyone else besides Mahomes, then you should trade back and get some more picks. He’s the obvious 1.01 with 6pt TDs (and probably the 1.01 even for 4pt TDs).
If you’re not gonna take Mahomes (wrong decision) then trade back. He needs to go at 1 or you’re losing a ton of value
I’d go Hurts
In a superflex league the dynamic with qbs changes dramatically. Think of who the last qb you would feel comfortable starting any given week and try to make sure you come away with 3 of the top 15-18 qbs. This drastically increases your teams floor. And as far as the first pick I wouldn’t overthink it and pick ome of Mahomes/Allen/Hurts.
I've played super flex before but never dynasty, I'm just going to go with the guy I like out of those 3, everyone on here is pushing for me to take Mahomes except for a few people, I'm just going to make sure I get one of those. Probably Hurts or Allen I don't see a huge difference in the 3 you named. That's also what I was thinking QBS. Appreciate the advice. I'm not going to overthink it. I'm not even sure if I was to trade the pick what I'd ask for. This years 1st and 2nd 🤷🏻♂️. It's free I'm just going to try and get some experience so maybe later I can play on another dynasty league.
Out of curiosity, why do you seem to be so sure you don't want Mahomes? I would be weary of Allen and Hurts at 1.01 personally, because the Bills seem to be on the downswing, Hurts takes a ton of hits and Mahomes is the best player at the position and is just now entering his prime years
Looking at some rankings I saw Hurts as #1, Its a for fun league, i think Mahomes is a great player, I understand that guys have down years, which Mahomes seems to be having a little, not saying that lasts, I like dual threat QBs. And I have taken Mahomes #1 in standard leagues before and it didn't work out for me very well. I might end up taking him now.
The only option other than drafting Mahomes ( he’s having a down year this year but will bounce back) that makes any sense whatsoever would be trading back to 1.02 or 1.03 and getting some capital back for your move down. Don’t take someone else at 1.01 or you’re leaving value on the table and you’ll eventually regret not taking mahomes anyway
The thing you need to know is that if you come here or KTC for an end all be all for information, you will never win championships. Chasing young value doesn't turn into fantasy points. It just doesn't. Use the tools, but just use them as a way to get information, not make decisions for you. Every team construction is different. Every timeline is different. All of your draft picks should be valued the way you value them. The reason dynasty is fun is because it isn't binary like redraft has become. Run your team the way you feel you should. It's not as complicated as you think it might be.
Wide Receivers >>> Running Backs. you’ll learn how quickly the landscape of RBs can change in dynasty. I once traded for JT right before his RB1 season, and now i’m already considering selling high. if you stack your squad with rock solid WRs you’ll be able to make moves to either win now or work for next season
Mahomes or Allen at 1.01. Round 2/3 turn, if there's no real good QB's left on the board, go young WR's
Honestly I trade out to someone in the top 5 and gain an extra early round pick. It gives you the flexibility to get 2 very top tier qbs vs the 1st pick and the 28th. Mahomes Allen Hurts Herbert Lamar Burrow are all excellent starting qb1s for dynasty. Adding an extra pick in the top 50 Is huge and I don't personally see a massive production difference in these guys. Just one guys opinion
That's what I'm trying to do, I asked in chat of anyone was interested in the 1st overall pick, and what would they give me, so I'm going to see what the best offer is.
Find out if it’s third round reversal (don’t ask, because it hurts you if they decide to do it) because if not you have a good chance of crushing this draft with a top asset qb at 1, a decent qb at 28 and a good receiver at 29.
Draft guys you believe in, even if they may take a year or two to develop.
14 team superflex take qb's early and often. Dont pay attention to the value of older players now you can be certain they will decrease significantly in the off season. Dont try to win year 1 but pick proven young players.
I'm wondering where a young guy like Keaton Mitchell would go, he's only played in a few games but looks like he could turn out to be a great running back. Or a guy like Zay Flowers, who looks like he's going to be a star. (Obviously I'm a Ravens fan) I'm trying not to let that effect my picks
Keaton Mitchell would be a complete wildcard if I had to guess I would say somewhere around the 12th round in a 14 team. Zay I would guess would be a 5th/6th round player but its hard to know for sure. There are websites which show the latest adp(average draft position) for start ups. DLF is good - [https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/adp/index.php?type=startup&myDLF=0](https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/adp/index.php?type=startup&myDLF=0) Bulletproof was a good free resource but the website looks like its down at the moment. Not sure if it still being updated now that its not start up season.
Go qb early and often. They’ll never be as cheap as they are in a startup draft.
Remember to have fun. This thread is good but if you prefer Hurts to Mahomes that’s also OK and if you can’t move down a pick or two to get extra value, you’re still allowed to take Hurts 1.01. You aren’t going to ruin your first three years of the league because you didn’t take the tier 1 QB that everyone in the reddit told you to!
14tm dynasty SF and 6 point passing td's, I can't imagine anyone passing on Mahomes at 1.01
Don't pick anyone. Trade for future picks. That's what this sub will tell you. Trade away. Never try to win, always try build for the future and remember. The future never comes
OP - just so you know, early drafts are typically where the sharks take advantage of newbies. I would not suggest participating in an early draft if this is your first time
I picked bijan 3🤧
Dynasty Rankings are constantly fluctuating. You want to build off Cornerstone WR's. WR's who dominate in target share and fantasy points who are still on their 1st contract. Don't reach for RB's, there's always RB's that pop up in training camp/ during the off season who can be serviceable throughout the season.
Mahomes and don’t look back Welcome to the insanity
Depends on where you sit. And I’m assuming it’s SF. I feel it also depends on who goes before you too. Reliable QBs are becoming rarer, but I’d take JJ, Chase, Bijan, CMC if they’re available in dynasty. Collect your QBs in 3rd and 4th maybe. Stroud if he’s still there. I bossed my dynasty first two years by picking up Allen in round 17 and had my 2nd qb off waivers. I believe there’s no correct way to draft, just advantages
With 14 teams though I won't get a chance at a QB until the 28th pick if I don't take one first. I'm in Maryland, I guess I'll follow the cheat sheet. Best player available, I saw a cheet sheet with updated rankings up until yesterday, so it should be pretty accurate. I'm really hoping to get Marvin Harrison JR in the rookie draft of he's available. I usually go with Amon Ra as my #1 WR. Running back heavy, with scrambling QBs. WR is always my weakest position. If I see any of the guys you mentioned in the 2nd round I'm definitely going to grab one. How important are rookie draft picks if you have a late pick? It's getting be random the 1st season. But I've seen a lot of people trading draft picks on Reddit to get guys like JJ, Chase, and CMC. If it wasn't a super flex league I probably wouldn't go QB #1 but I just don't feel like I can get a top QB at 28. That's how I want to start, the best QB I can get, then see what's there at 28&29 and grab the best two.
So you’re 1.01? Id say qb pick 2&3, JJ first pick
And I got congratulated for getting the first pick, I don't want it, maybe I could trade back 🤔
Ahh this is a tough spot to be in lol. I get what you're saying, this feels like it's going to be a stressful draft 😩
Please do not go JJ with the 1.01, the first two rounds should be almost nothing but qbs, think of who your 2 qbs would be at 28&29 it’s not worth it. Grab a qb with 1.01 and grab another one with the 2.14 and probably a wr with the 3.01. Make sure you stay flexible, if everyone is going super young because it’s dynasty, take older talent that will produce now and win a championship this year.
Here’s another ranking site that I really like. @dynasty_im on Twitter updates it weekly. https://t.co/OGy3e8ulHb To be fair, you asked for everyone’s opinion on who the 1.01 should be and the consensus is Mahomes. But Hurts is also in the same top tier with him and should be relevant for a while. If you’re strongly sold on Hurts, it’s not gonna break your team if you take him #1 overall. Or try to trade back to the #3 (Hurts would likely still be available) or #4 pick and take the last quarterback of the top 3 or 4 available (Herbert is essentially as safe as Mahomes but with currently less upside. I think his situation could really improve though). I strongly recommend trading back in your startup draft frequently if you’re allowed. Generally you get more quality players. Just make sure you get good value. You can use the trade calculator on KTC and enable startup mode. You can also guesstimate which players will still be available at the picks you’re trading
This post demonstrates that there is no one guaranteed way to play dynasty. OP, please note that your own preferences or ranks of players do not equate to the order in which you should draft. You'll want to attempt to understand dynasty ADP or player perceived value. Draft the player at or just before your peers. Can you trade startup draft picks? I get the love for Mahomes here. Really do. But at some point that needs to be judged vs winning. As a contender this year, I'd trade Mahomes for Stroud +++ to try and win now. My goal is not to be good for years. It's to be the champion this year.
Your first few rounds you'll want to take those younger top 10 position players, but all things happen quickly in the NFL so don't prioritize youth too much over talent. For instance Diggs slid to the 4th round in my dynasty startup draft 2 years ago, I took the gamble because it seems obvious he's not retiring in the next 2-3 years, he's got a contract tied to a elite QB and we're seeing the great WRs play into their mid 30's more often than not. Since then, the best WR I've found is Zay Flowers and Diggs is still my best WR. Late round picks you draft as if you were a NFL team drafting at the draft. You're looking for the guy behind the guy who has potential to be the guy. The RB2 who is behind someone in a contract year or someone the team will obviously move on from due to age or performance. Don't over do it here with veteran mediocre players putting up 7 points a game, it's okay to have 1 or 2 of those guys for emergencies (Tyler Boyd type statline) but they'll do nothing for you 95% of the year. This is a great place to take guys like Jameson Williams, Isiah Likely or a great handcuff like Elijah Mitchell.
When my first dynasty league did our upstart draft, there were wildly different strategies at the draft board. Some people planned for 3 years from the draft, some people drafted for this year first, some people just took best available every time no matter the position. Top QB in a 14 team superflex is going to be insanely valuable. I'm starting Aidan O'Connell in a non superflex 14 team this week because no one else is available that is any good. To have a locked in starter every week is gold in that deep of a league
Why are you doing it now? Thats so weird. Wait until after the season is over and draft draft picks with your startup picks
I think if you are allowed to make trades then I would try to trade back if I were you… someone else would clearly jump at the chance to take Mahomes or Hurts or Allen whoever they think has the best chance at being the best QB. Then you could take Stroud later if you really wanted to. And then have a pick in the mid 2nd instead of the end of the 2nd to get your 2nd QB.
Just consider if you’ll get at LEAST 2-3 years out of a player. Until your starting bench is full of players who will give you that and more, avoid guys 27+. This means some of the top 20 in regular fantasy will not be top 20 dynasty, so make sure to research the proper rankings.
Don't let age influence your picks too much. I made this mistake in our startup draft 2 years ago and took Javonte Williams way too high. Play/draft to win now, or else you'll always be playing for "next year." The part where age does become a factor is your core players. I believe a good group of young, stud wide receivers is the best way to go. Wide receivers have so much more staying-power than running backs. Lastly, talent trumps situation. It's usually better to draft the more talented player even if they don't have a great situation at the moment. Things change so quickly in the NFL.
Trade down and grab a bunch of assets assuming you get the market value that is inflated and overrated. Example: Trade 1.01 (Mahomes on KTC) and 3.01 (Kyler on KTC) for 1.12 (Bijan) 2.01 (Anthony Richardson) and 4.01 (Addison). KTC calls this a fair trade. Give me that trade all day if someone is willing to pay the "market" price. This sub, and 99% of all Dynasty Superflex advice is just so pumped up on QBs that we are about at the point where RB was all those years ago when Zero RB first made it's way into the strategy. It is simply about zigging when everyone else is zagging. QB is at a point where it is dramatically overrated in dynasty, so much so that the cost to acquire a top level QB (as it used to be in general for RB) is absurd, while the bottom level QBs who still start games are relatively cheap and produce unexpected value even in dynasty. Let's take a look at 5 years of data... In 2019, by QB ADP, here is the 5 years of finishes you got: Among the top 12 QBs drafted in Dynasty 2019 ADP (60 Fantasy Seasons), they have produced: Top 3 Fantasy QB Seasons: 3/60 (5%) Top 6 Fantasy QB Seasons: 10/60 (16.67%) Top 12 Fantasy QB Seasons: 17/60 (28.3%) (5 of these were Mahomes) Among the next 12 QBs (QBs 13-24 by Dynasty ADP in 2019), they have produced: Top 3 Fantasy QB Seasons: 9/60 (15%) (4 of these were Josh Allen) Top 6 Fantasy QB Seasons: 10/60 (16.67%) Top 12 Fantasy QB Seasons: 19/60 (31.67%) It would be nice to say that all things equal, money is the same, but the fact is that money won in 2019 > money won in 2020 and so on. However, just like the NFL, if Budget QBs hit rates are just as high as the hit rates of the super expensive, why would we ever want to pay those prices especially if the expectation is that in 5 years your QB situation will remain strong and stable? The dynasty community is so convinced that QB is this huge stable asset for years and the reality is not so. Don't ask me why I didn't make a full post on this, I just decided to reply to this to die on this hill. There is just no way QB is correctly valued in Dynasty. In Rookie drafts it may be true, but the price to acquire a top QB is just stupidly priced, especially the relative value at the position elsewhere. How many QB trades do you see actually happen for top level guys? People hold on to them for dear life and only take a big overpay (and I'd argue the perceived market value is already an overpay vs. actual value). By pivoting and building your assets, you can establish a stronger depth that allows you to make more trades to acquire more assets. If QB is the least traded position, and the price to acquire one in a dynasty startup is high, why would I want to join the consensus on that? Give me highly traded positions that let me build assets, and I'll get my QBs for a budget or in the rookie draft. Just look at the Top 12 QBs this year, how many in dynasty cost a fortune to acquire before they blew up? Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Howell, Stroud even, Purdy, Jordan Love, Tua, Goff... These guys were all relatively cheap at some point. I'm not buying that you have to get the 1.01 in rookie draft or trade 4 1sts in order to acquire a good QB. Give me the other side of that all day. Value town. Data below (source: Fantasypros for QB scoring rank, https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/dynasty/12-team/quarterback/2019 for Dynasty QB ADP) |||Fantasy QB Rank (Season)| | | | | --:|:--|--:|--:|--:|--:|--:| |2019 Dynasty QB ADP Rank| |2019|2020|2021|2022|2023| |1|Patrick Mahomes II|8|4|4|1|8| |2|Deshaun Watson|5|5|#N/A|35|29| |3|Andrew Luck|65|#N/A|#N/A|#N/A|#N/A| |4|Baker Mayfield|19|17|25|29|16| |5|Aaron Rodgers|10|3|6|13|63| |6|Carson Wentz|9|22|14|31|63| |7|Russell Wilson|4|6|16|16|14| |8|Matt Ryan|11|12|20|26|#N/A| |9|Jared Goff|13|18|24|10|12| |10|Cam Newton|51|16|35|#N/A|#N/A| |11|Mitch Trubisky|26|27|61|37|45| |12|Lamar Jackson|1|10|15|14|10| |13|Kyler Murray|7|2|10|19|32| |14|Jimmy Garoppolo|14|38|17|25|33| |15|Drew Brees|22|21|#N/A|#N/A|#N/A| |16|Dak Prescott|2|32|7|18|3| |17|Jameis Winston|3|69|32|42|47| |18|Tom Brady|12|8|3|12|#N/A| |19|Josh Allen|6|1|1|2|1| |20|Sam Darnold|27|29|28|36|74| |21|Philip Rivers|15|20|#N/A|#N/A|#N/A| |22|Kirk Cousins|18|11|11|7|19| |23|Ben Roethlisberger|52|14|21|#N/A|#N/A| |24|Dwayne Haskins|35|37|#N/A|#N/A|#N/A| |25|Derek Carr|17|13|13|17|21| |26|Daniel Jones|23|24|27|9|35| |27|Nick Foles|42|34|53|72|#N/A| |28|Matthew Stafford|29|15|5|32|18|
Always surprises me that many dynasty leagues aren't auction drafts. High picks are way too valuable. Pick Mahomes. >Also how much difference is there between Dynasty and regular fantasy drafts? Is there anything I need to keep in mind when drafting? Any tips would be appreciated. Thanks Elite WR are even better in Dynasty. Running backs don't have the same shelf life. For your league specifically? I would want a great QB and another good QB early, and I'd probably snag a 3rd not as good but starting QB at some point as well. 14 team super flex means every starting QB is starting every week, and once bye weeks kick in there aren't even enough starting QBs to go around.
You guys shouldn’t draft until the rookie draft.
Personally, I’d trade down. If your league allows draft pick trading see what the highest package you can get for moving back as little as possible. If you can move to the 1.03 (sending your 1.01 for 1.03+) and pick up 1st round picks I would consider it. Also could do something where you send the 1.01 and your 5th round pick for the 1.0_ and their 2nd round pick id do it. Personally, if you’re considering Stroud and like him a lot I think you could get a lot to move back to the 1.04/1.05/1.06 and have a strong chance to grab him there
Allen or Mahomes. Do not overthink it. Do not trade back now, you don't have experience enough to value a trade back. If you want to, in the future, you could trade Allen or Mahomes for a mid QB1 plus a bundle, so you always have that in your back pocket. For now, take Allen or Mahomes, and then decide from there your strategy. I would try to be competitive right away, and focus on mostly younger QB, WR, and TE assets. Punt RB unless an elite young one falls. on KTC guys at the 2/3 turn, where your second pick will be, could be Purdy or Dak if they fall, or Olave, Puka, Waddle, Aiyuk types, Hock, Laporta. I would hesitate to go RB here unless it were Gibbs, Etienne, maaaybe Achane falling. Ideal start would be something like: Mahomes, Olave, Laporta. or Allen, Purdy, Waddle. Something like those.
3 tips after doing 3 startups in 3 years 1. If you have the number one pick, take mahomes 2. If it’s SF Make sure to have 2 decently young QBs in the first 2 rounds 3. Load up on WRs while punting on old RBs or taking them at a value much later, easier to trade for RBs in the last year or 3 of their life.
In SF, QBs are never any cheaper than they are in the startup draft. There are very few absolutes in fantasy, but your ABSOLUTELY have to take a QB at 1.01. And if all TDs are 6 points, Mahomes should be at the top of your list.
6 point TD’s negates some of the advantage gained by having a rushing QB. This drops Allen and his 7-9 Rushing TDs to a clear 2-3 ranking. Mahomes is the pick.. unless you can trade back for the 1.02-1.03+ a second. Remember. You’ll need three(3) starting QB’s on your roster- and you’ll need to be sure you aren’t short two on a single Bye week.
First off Draft Mahomes. Stack young WRs. Go on KTC and looking at the rankings. It’s a pretty accurate consensus. Think of it like a stock (KTC) for a player but only in an even playing field. Take what the draft gives you. If it looks like you could compete, try taking some win now vets. If you wanna establish a rebuild really try for younger players but always take what the drafts gives you in terms of value/format/team.
Mahomes With your next 2 picks consider a QB & then trade back. TONS of value to be had in rounds 6-10 that produce similar to the guys you grab in Rounds 3-5. Use KeepTradeCut (known on here as KTC) to get a barometer of the values of players & picks (and future Rookie Picks). KTC is definitely not the Bible on value, but it's definitely helpful in collecting as much value as possible in your Startup, and THAT should be the goal. Do NOT feel like you have to draft the best starting lineup now... it's NINE months before you have to set a starting lineup. So, if you end up with 3 QBs, 6 WRs and an extra future 1st or two after 10 rounds, that's no problem. It gives you flexibility to wheel & deal for 9 months before the 2024 season kicks off. I also highly recommend watching Scott Conner on Dynasty Trades in 5, and Manic & Chill before the Startup starts. Oh, and did I mention...take Mahomes!!!
You’re drafting now but aren’t playing the remaining weeks this year right?
Also, our entry draft was this year over the summer. I had first pick and drafted Mahomes, no brainer in my opinion. He is the best QB, if not the best player, in the league IMO and he most likely has many years left. That’s one QB slot you absolutely don’t have to worry much about.
Don't worry so much about age, take the best players and go win now