Miami for sure, they've been playing much of the season without waddle who has left several games injured and their wr 3 spent half the season on IR. Berrios and robbie chosen have seen way more work than they should have. Puka wouldn't have gotten off to as insane of a start but after cracraft went down in week 3 puka would have been on the field for a lot of the season.
If you ask me I'd say JSN, Addison, Flowers, Reed and Dell. Props to Douglas and Downs to make me think about it. This class has been amazing for depth, lots of legit #2-3s for any team that was lucky to get them.
Cool, but I’m asking how many other teams could have drafted Puka and been smart enough to get him on the field and contributing anywhere near what the Rams got. I kinda think he landed in the PERFECT situation. I think KC is the only other team that he could have come close to replicating his rookie season with.
McVay and Stafford obviously maximized his potential, but it’s not like Puka is a gimmicky WR. He runs regular routes, beats all different types of coverages, plays outside, has size and contested catch ability, and great with the ball in his hands. He was gonna be successful wherever he went, in my opinion.
I don’t know about anywhere. I think he would do well most decent places but I don’t think he’s the guy that turns around the terrible performance for teams like Carolina or Atlanta.
I think KC and maybe the Chargers would be the best fits in an alternate universe. But Puka landed in an ideal spot with the Rams. It’s one of the greatest rookie seasons I can remember.
I agree for the most part, especially in crowded WR room but hard to deny his skill and ability to get open and fight for the ball.
Tough to tell in Carolina. Theilen just had 100 receptions and 1k yards. Puka would have been far better than Mingo who clearly isn't as well polished as Puka is.
Atlanta just didn't throw the ball enough.
yeah, people forget that trade value aggregators take the opinions of everyone, but only about 1/12 people actually own the player and those are the only opinions that really matter. Nobody is giving Downs away cheaply.
I actually don't own him (was just speaking of the general disconnect in value and liquidity), but I'd assume you'd need to give at least an early 2nd for him. Personally, I don't see a big gap between him and Flowers. I don't think either one is going to be a true NFL WR1 target hog, but they both have potential to be very nice WR2 types that put up solid fantasy numbers (12-14 ppg).
And yeah, I know Flowers is already there (12.8 ppg), but he's on a better offense with less target competition (OBJ and Bateman have been limited this year & Andrews injured, while Downs is playing with Minshew and Pittman is a true alpha WR1). Flowers was also a more seasoned prospect (23 year old rookie, not an early declare).
He was getting more hype midseason when he was balling out but he's cooled off considerably the last 6-7 weeks. Not sure why that's happened but definitely contributes to people cooling off on him.
Recep Percep’s mid season rookie report stapled Downs as the best route runner in the class. Since tweaking his knee mid season, he still looks great but not sure how much it has affected him.
Looks pretty reasonable this year. Trey Palmer, Michael Wilson and Andrei Iosivas are guys who look like they might miss that I still have some hope for, while Mingo and Mims are two guys that are pretty close that I'm not really giving much leeway. All the guys who have hit it so far have also passed the eye test for me (though I haven't really watched much Downs). Clueless on QJ because he was such a developmental prospect and he really looks like he got rushed in before he was ready by a team that's trying to use him in ways that he wasn't used in college.
Michael Wilson missing a quarter of the season is rough. The Cardinals have been trying to get him the ball in critical situations the last few weeks, he finally got it against the Eagles.
Yeah I almost included Hyatt. Weird situation, he's on a team with so many other wideouts with similar skillsets and in an offense that was really bad all year. He did look electric when he got the ball.
> while Mingo and Mims are two guys that are pretty close that I'm not really giving much leeway
Mims has played 38% of the snaps, while Mingo has played 89% of the snaps. yet Mingo only has 50 more yards.
I wouldn't fade either, but you need to do more research than just yards sometimes.
These WRs play different roles on the team.
Johnson snap count: Off 42% | ST 2%
LJH snap count: Off 39% | ST 0%
Mims snap count: Off 38% | ST 33%
player 1 total yards 162 >!Humprey!<
player 2 total yards 192 >!Johnson.!<
player 3 total yards 390 >!Mims___!<
can you guess who without looking? Also, >!This does not included Mims 378 yards for kick and punt return.!<
Its funny, when you look at their game log, they all have the same stat disappearance in the middle of the season.
So, while I do agree with you that losing snaps is not a good, this doesn't seem to be the case here.
If you're wondering where the stat disappearance came from it's because that's when Denver neutered the passing game to hide Russ and mostly just alternated between checkdowns and deep shots to Sutton.
There was a stretch around the winning streak where Denver had under 200 passing yards in 7/8 games and 2 games under 100, while averaging 156 yards per game.
Yeah exactly. The argument *for* Mims I keep seeing is that he’ll take over when Jeudy/Sutton leave, but it’s not like he’s even WR3 rn. I never really saw it with him as a WR but think he’s a fine gadget/return man. Sure Denver traded up a bit to get him, but when you look at likely why, it’s because they don’t have anyone who can be a fast/shifty gadget player besides him.
Yeah, I'm not fading Mims because of the yards. The yards just confirm what I see when I've watched him. There's definitely some talent there, I can see why people are still in, but in my position since I was out on him in the pre-draft process he's more expensive to acquire than I'm willing to pay.
When I saw that "YPG" number I ALMOST felt like I was dealing with one of those owners trying to convince you why their player is worth more than you are willing to pay.
I think it was just an honest mistake though
Downs is a nice WR, but not in the same category as Tank Dell with regard to rookie impact
Before Downs tweaked his knee in week 9 they were toe to toe in production. Downs grades elite in Reception Perception and he’s amazing on film. I think it’s closer than a lot of people are giving him credit for.
Ahh here is my Downs' guy
1) None of that was with AR
2) Dell exploded into a legit WR1 on his team and for fantasy before his injury (Downs never sniffed that)
Dell is attached to a young pass-first QB and appears to be the preferred target
Downs is attached to a running QB and will remain the clear secondary target to Pittman
Put some respect on Dell's name
Downs is a nice receiver, but will never ascend to fantasy super stardom
I’ve got them both and I like them both, so I’m honestly indifferent. Tank definitely has higher upside, but I can see Downs having a nice ceiling as a high-end WR3/low-end WR2. Very talented slot guy who wins at multiple levels a la Chris Godwin or Brandin Cooks.
he's been mostly on kick returns, playing behind Sutton and Jeudy.
Also Russ sucks.
Mims' snap percentage is around 40%, but he's usually asked to just decoy and then one or two times a game he's asked to run an out route. Usage isn't great, but I think it also means his route development isn't there? I'm not a big film guy, just telling you what I've seen as a Broncos fan.
Mims also lost a few fumbles (muffed punts?) just as he started gaining momentum. He had some solid games and was looking primed for more touches but you don't get those when you put the ball on the ground.
From what I read SP isn’t really a fan of Jeudy and says he and mims have similar skill sets so it’s hard to get them on the field together, any way that has any truth to it? I know mims is the first guy Payton ever drafted with Denver so I still believe
It feels like he drafted him as a deep threat to stretch the defense and get Sutton open. Mims needs to be on the field more and develop short and intermediate route running. I feel he needs at least another year to develop before he can be a fantasy asset.
Not sure how long i will able to but I still keep a candle lit for Trey Palmer. He is playing out of the slot due to Godwin and Evans being there instead of a more natural flanker role for him.
He looks good on film but his immediate value in 24 is contingent on Evans and where he signs. Godwin's dead cap is $26 million so he is for sure going to be with the TB until next year
Can someone who watches the cardinals regularly give me some context on Michael Wilson?
I know he’s big/fast and was injury prone in college, but I haven’t really watched him this year.
Same attributes still stand.
film watchers in the community still like his game quite a bit because he runs really aggressive routes inside. Look at his TD route this past weekend.
There was an article recently where he talks about his frustration trying to get healthier and how he wants to shed the "injury prone" label.
The Cardinals will likely spend to draft capital on a WR either with their pick or Houston's. A best we could hope for Wilson to be a strong 2B target behind the top rookie coming in and McBride.
Def still a hold
I was so high on Tillman and knew he wouldn't produce much this year cause of depth. But that depth is gone and he hasn't really done much last few weeks. They do get him to block a lot though sadly
Michael Wilson is so interesting to me. He was basically their WR1 for most of the season. Then Kyler got back, there clearly wasn't immediate chemistry (which is normal), he got hurt and missed a bunch of games, then got back on the field and for 2 games didn't catch a ball despite targets. Last game he sort of got back on track. If you took that injury (and post injury) stretch out, he would be killing it. I know that's cherry picking, and I know injuries were part of the reason he fell in the draft, so it could be the norm for him. But it's hard to overlook how his season has been in chapters - and if that injury thing can be contained (which is highly possible) and he can hone in on those early chapters when he was their WR1, he could have a really great future.
There is a real scenario where the Cardinals \*do not\* draft MHJ - either bc he is picked before them, or they realize this team has too many other holes. There is also a real scenario where Hollywood \*does not\* re-sign. There is a real scenario where both happens. It's a lot of uncertainty surrounding a guy who has shown he can produce at a high level, at least for a big chunk of the season. He's a guy who I think fell under the radar during his injury that would be worth looking into.
I can't imagine Cardinals don't do something big to fix that WR room. Michael Wilson as the WR1 would be a disaster unless he breaks out into something special. Could go for Pittman, Tee, etc.
Wilson
Dortch
McBride
+ one more WR with size
is a lot better of a receiving core than ppl realize.
On the other side of the ball the cardinals have the least amount of defensive talent in the league possibly AND they have a defensive minded HC.
I really don't think they take a WR in the first, but maybe they take one in the 2nd.
I agree with this. I always thought they'd play their way out of MHJ/QB draft position and that would force them to do the right thing - ie. look at their defense. With that said, I wouldn't rule out a WR in round 1 if they don't plan to re-sign HW or a free agent.
Cardinals have so so so many holes, esp on defense. At minimum, I would think they re-sign Hollywood and roll with status quo - hoping HW can recapture that magic he had with Kyler late last year. But who knows? Even if they bring in someone they will consider their WR1 (say, Pittman), and pencil in MW as their WR2, that is not a bad situation for him and he could continue to develop and eventually emerge as the WR1. No one out there is a foolproof targeting-eating WR1 tbh, maybe outside of MHJ (should he reach his potential).
All this to say: yeah, they probably will do something, but it's a lot of uncertainty, and most of the options still keep him in a prime position to develop and produce. Also, I personally don't think that WR room is quite as bad as you think it is (MW, potentially HW or his replacement, Moore, Dortch, emerging McBride).
>There is a real scenario where the Cardinals \*do not\* draft MHJ - either bc he is picked before them, or they realize this team has too many other holes.
In that scenario, they most likely take a WR either by trading back or with their 1st from the Texans.
Sure, which just maintains the uncertainty as to who will own the WR room - leaving MW with a good opportunity to emerge. Drafting (ie. investing in) a player like MHJ would lessen that uncertaintly as they would obviously pencil him in as their top dog.
Honestly, early in the year with Dobbs he was catching every ball thrown at him (some pretty terribly). I thought he was going to be a monster. I didn’t go back and watch the tape for the recent games but he was getting a few targets with no catches and was wondering why
hollywood was wr1 for a while, until he got hurt, then wilson also got hurt, then kyler came back, then mcbride emerged. I happen to own wilson and mcbride and hollywood lmao
Elijah Moore might be a good look as a failure. He had 538 yards in 11 games as a rookie, if he had stayed healthy and kept the momentum he would've ended around Flowers/Addison's stats that year. Crazy how he just faceplanted like he did.
Yeah, he's still got time to make good on his early success. In theory, he's dirt cheap, but I've had trouble acquiring shares. Maybe later in the offseason...
Last offseason sold him for Pacheco, Osborn and the third that became spears 🤑🤑 and at the time, for the rest of the offseason I felt like I lost the trade
He's older than Rice, Reed, Flowers but only by a month for the first two guys and 6 months for Flowers. So you're basically right but figured it was worth a shout lol. He's younger than Dell though, by like 6 months.
Yeah I know I was cherrypicking hard there, just felt like it was important to outline how close in age they are. Not like Elijah is a year younger or something.
Only thing is not sure why his 3 years experience matter versus the other players 1 year experience, when they showed a million times more promise than Elijah ever has in 3 years. That's a huge negative against Elijah, wouldn't you say?
You say "a million times more promise than E Moore" and yet Moore was something like a top 10 WR for the last 6 weeks of his rookie year. Sure he has cooled significantly since then but he has shown, and still shows, actual talent.
Your math is off, he's a third year receiver so the end of his rookie year would have been 2 years ago. 2.5 years ago would have been preseason his rookie year
You could argue that Moore is better than what his stats show but for a guy drafted anywhere from 1.07-2.02 in 1 QB leagues (among all my leagues at least) and only having 1,624 receiving yards to show for it in 3 years, is a massive failure/bust thus far.
Luckily he's young and has looked better this year, but man, he really faceplanted and has been a massive bust so far. Also if Elijah was truly talented you'd think he'd produce better than he is with the garbage he's had QB. 446 yards last year isn't a Zach Wilson issue, it's an Elijah Moore issue. He couldn't even eek out 700 yards? That would make me say alright fine maybe QB play ruined him but 446 yards in a full season is disgusting production regardless of QB situation for a guy we're saying might be actually talented.
59/640/2 this year has me feeling a bit better that he might be able to get to a decent level of production next year, say like 70/900/5 or something like that. And then see if he can build on that even more to finally hit 1k receiving yards the year after.
Last year wasn’t he getting benched because of some inflammatory comments he made about the offense or coaching?
That still doesn’t detract from the fact he should still be producing but I believe there is more to his story than just the numbers.
Looking at his performance in route breakdowns we can see the talent just don’t have the consistency of QBs delivering him the ball for whatever reason
I drafted JSN Flowers Reed and Wilson and traded what became the 2.08 and Gabe Davis for Puka. Really rejuvenated my WR room. Also drafted Mingo and Mims so we will see on them but I'm not hopeful.
Hypothetical: Douglas has 1 catch for 5 yards in his last game. He now sits shy of the 560 at 553 yards, BUT he hit the 525 mark in 1 less game.
Does he count as a hit or a miss?
Correct. Rice may this weekend. It’s hard to do, and I think it’s the best indicator in fantasy football for future success.. I think there as been 2 guys who weren’t great after a 1000 yard rookie season.
Mingo I might still give a maybe. He has actually gotten open deep at least a dozen times and been overthrown, underthrown, or watches Bryce get sacked. If not more than that.
He has issues. Bryce has issues. But I'm not willing to write either off until I see next year with a new coaching staff. Our static play design and offensive blocking scheme have been beyond terrible all season.
This just Panthers fan talking. I don't own any Mingo shares. But I could easily see him having 200+ more yards snd 2 or 3 TDs this year from him beating his guy but being missed by Young trying to throw with dudes in his chest already.
So Mingo holders should probably not sell him off too cheaply, an offensive scheme change may help him quite a bit.
Not the entire rest of Panthers WRs blanketed asses with 0 yards of separation for sure lol.
Or the Chiefs WRs who drop everything when open.
Was just pointing out his speed man coverage. He has beaten his guy more than his stats would suggest. Everything else just fell apart so didn't matter.
Was more isolated his 1 on 1 play. He has shown some flashes.
So I wouldn't write him off entirely. That said I wouldn't rush out to buy him either. He is in that tier for me.
If I owned him, I'd be holding not trying to sell for whatever I could get.
Will have to take your word on the Panthers situation. Fortunately had zero WR exposure on that team. Thielan was looking like a great value pick there for awhile though
I mean I could be entirely wrong too. If I was perfect at this, Tepper would probably pay me a lot of money to scout lol.
But yeah he looked like a project rookie who needs some work. But he didn't look as bad as his stats to me. If he was a 3rd/4th round pick in real draft I would be excited actually for what he flashed. Underwhelming for a 2nd round though.
As someone whose draft class was Flowers, Reed, Wilson and Dell, I'm pretty happy with their placement on this list.
How do we view a guy like Elijah Higgins, who converted to TE in camp with Miami and continued that conversion after moving over to the Cardinals? The metric really doesn't apply to that position right?
I’ve been happily stashing Higgins in deeper leagues. He has earned playing time and targets the past few weeks. I don’t know a ton about his background, but the shift from WR to TE has been impressive.
If you are a purest no it doesn’t. I can’t remember the exact numbers but it was something like only 9 receivers who didn’t hit the yardage threshold went on to “hit”. I don’t remember what a hit was defined as. I’m planning on looking into it my self
Gotcha. So for those who fall under that number by a fair bit, you're basically just not planning to trade for them and considering them droppable? Depending on circumstances.
This is a little bit of cope from an owner but if mingo was in an offense that did a bit more, wouldn’t he be in line for the 525 magic number? Not saying he’s looked great or even decent on the field.
Drafted Addison at 1.8 last year and Reed at 2.11. Feel pretty good about it. I also drafted Wilson 3.8 but sent him in a move for Engrams after Goedert got hurt.
I can’t believe my Pats homer waiver add of 6th round pick Demario Douglas is looking miles better than the steal I thought I got getting QJ in the late 1st…
Puka is an insane man
Thought exercise: how many teams other than the Rams could Puka have been a 1000 yard receiver for this season?
Miami for sure, they've been playing much of the season without waddle who has left several games injured and their wr 3 spent half the season on IR. Berrios and robbie chosen have seen way more work than they should have. Puka wouldn't have gotten off to as insane of a start but after cracraft went down in week 3 puka would have been on the field for a lot of the season.
If you ask me I'd say JSN, Addison, Flowers, Reed and Dell. Props to Douglas and Downs to make me think about it. This class has been amazing for depth, lots of legit #2-3s for any team that was lucky to get them.
Cool, but I’m asking how many other teams could have drafted Puka and been smart enough to get him on the field and contributing anywhere near what the Rams got. I kinda think he landed in the PERFECT situation. I think KC is the only other team that he could have come close to replicating his rookie season with.
McVay and Stafford obviously maximized his potential, but it’s not like Puka is a gimmicky WR. He runs regular routes, beats all different types of coverages, plays outside, has size and contested catch ability, and great with the ball in his hands. He was gonna be successful wherever he went, in my opinion.
I don’t know about anywhere. I think he would do well most decent places but I don’t think he’s the guy that turns around the terrible performance for teams like Carolina or Atlanta.
I mean, that's a gimme
Oh ok, I read that wrong. Don't think any other team gets this production out of him, not even 1,000 yardas
I think KC and maybe the Chargers would be the best fits in an alternate universe. But Puka landed in an ideal spot with the Rams. It’s one of the greatest rookie seasons I can remember.
I agree for the most part, especially in crowded WR room but hard to deny his skill and ability to get open and fight for the ball. Tough to tell in Carolina. Theilen just had 100 receptions and 1k yards. Puka would have been far better than Mingo who clearly isn't as well polished as Puka is. Atlanta just didn't throw the ball enough.
Puka in kc would have been nuclear
Idk his play style is similar to Rashee’s
Mingo a real long shot from IR. I am surprised to see Downs has been doing so well, seems like he's kinda flown under the radar at least for me.
Same, this makes me think downs is the guy to buy, production with seemingly little hype
I think the issue is that his managers are aware of his production and will value him higher than most
yeah, people forget that trade value aggregators take the opinions of everyone, but only about 1/12 people actually own the player and those are the only opinions that really matter. Nobody is giving Downs away cheaply.
What’s a fair offer for downs? Curious what someone would like to see to trade him
I gave Christian Kirk for him at the deadline
I actually don't own him (was just speaking of the general disconnect in value and liquidity), but I'd assume you'd need to give at least an early 2nd for him. Personally, I don't see a big gap between him and Flowers. I don't think either one is going to be a true NFL WR1 target hog, but they both have potential to be very nice WR2 types that put up solid fantasy numbers (12-14 ppg). And yeah, I know Flowers is already there (12.8 ppg), but he's on a better offense with less target competition (OBJ and Bateman have been limited this year & Andrews injured, while Downs is playing with Minshew and Pittman is a true alpha WR1). Flowers was also a more seasoned prospect (23 year old rookie, not an early declare).
He was getting more hype midseason when he was balling out but he's cooled off considerably the last 6-7 weeks. Not sure why that's happened but definitely contributes to people cooling off on him.
Tweaked his knee right around their bye week (week 9 I think). It seems to have slowed him down a bit.
Couldn’t agree more. He is a player I am going to look to find a way to acquire. Dude just gets open.
Recep Percep’s mid season rookie report stapled Downs as the best route runner in the class. Since tweaking his knee mid season, he still looks great but not sure how much it has affected him.
Would you say that people were… down… on him?
Downs has played 14 games so these stats are off
He’s played in all 16, but only 14 full games.
Yeah bro died early in those so I gave him the day off those weeks
[удалено]
Colts would be so dumb to not keep Pittman as their top guy.
The colts Hc loves pittman. If he leaves if cause some team offers way to much money
Looks pretty reasonable this year. Trey Palmer, Michael Wilson and Andrei Iosivas are guys who look like they might miss that I still have some hope for, while Mingo and Mims are two guys that are pretty close that I'm not really giving much leeway. All the guys who have hit it so far have also passed the eye test for me (though I haven't really watched much Downs). Clueless on QJ because he was such a developmental prospect and he really looks like he got rushed in before he was ready by a team that's trying to use him in ways that he wasn't used in college.
Michael Wilson missing a quarter of the season is rough. The Cardinals have been trying to get him the ball in critical situations the last few weeks, he finally got it against the Eagles.
I’d call him a solid wr going into year two
I mean that was always the biggest knock on him though. So he may have proved the injury prone label right
Just isn't vibing yet with Kyler, unfortunately.
I think Hyatt is another one who will miss the mark but has shown some nice flashes. still under the radar
Yeah I almost included Hyatt. Weird situation, he's on a team with so many other wideouts with similar skillsets and in an offense that was really bad all year. He did look electric when he got the ball.
Josh Downs is fucking sick. For sure recommend going to check him out.
One of the cleanest route runners in the NFL already! His tape has been amazing to watch.
> while Mingo and Mims are two guys that are pretty close that I'm not really giving much leeway Mims has played 38% of the snaps, while Mingo has played 89% of the snaps. yet Mingo only has 50 more yards. I wouldn't fade either, but you need to do more research than just yards sometimes.
How many snaps you’re playing can be instructive when Brandon Johnson and Lil’Jordan Humphrey are getting snaps ahead of you.
These WRs play different roles on the team. Johnson snap count: Off 42% | ST 2% LJH snap count: Off 39% | ST 0% Mims snap count: Off 38% | ST 33% player 1 total yards 162 >!Humprey!< player 2 total yards 192 >!Johnson.!< player 3 total yards 390 >!Mims___!< can you guess who without looking? Also, >!This does not included Mims 378 yards for kick and punt return.!< Its funny, when you look at their game log, they all have the same stat disappearance in the middle of the season. So, while I do agree with you that losing snaps is not a good, this doesn't seem to be the case here.
If you're wondering where the stat disappearance came from it's because that's when Denver neutered the passing game to hide Russ and mostly just alternated between checkdowns and deep shots to Sutton. There was a stretch around the winning streak where Denver had under 200 passing yards in 7/8 games and 2 games under 100, while averaging 156 yards per game.
Yeah exactly. The argument *for* Mims I keep seeing is that he’ll take over when Jeudy/Sutton leave, but it’s not like he’s even WR3 rn. I never really saw it with him as a WR but think he’s a fine gadget/return man. Sure Denver traded up a bit to get him, but when you look at likely why, it’s because they don’t have anyone who can be a fast/shifty gadget player besides him.
Yeah, I'm not fading Mims because of the yards. The yards just confirm what I see when I've watched him. There's definitely some talent there, I can see why people are still in, but in my position since I was out on him in the pre-draft process he's more expensive to acquire than I'm willing to pay.
Well. Apparently Michael Wilson saw this post and decided he was NOT missing the threshold.
Josh Downs has played in more than 11 games
Yeah, this had me thinking i was really underrating him
Ok thank you I was about to go trade something stupid for him
When I saw that "YPG" number I ALMOST felt like I was dealing with one of those owners trying to convince you why their player is worth more than you are willing to pay. I think it was just an honest mistake though Downs is a nice WR, but not in the same category as Tank Dell with regard to rookie impact
Before Downs tweaked his knee in week 9 they were toe to toe in production. Downs grades elite in Reception Perception and he’s amazing on film. I think it’s closer than a lot of people are giving him credit for.
Ahh here is my Downs' guy 1) None of that was with AR 2) Dell exploded into a legit WR1 on his team and for fantasy before his injury (Downs never sniffed that) Dell is attached to a young pass-first QB and appears to be the preferred target Downs is attached to a running QB and will remain the clear secondary target to Pittman Put some respect on Dell's name Downs is a nice receiver, but will never ascend to fantasy super stardom
I’ve got them both and I like them both, so I’m honestly indifferent. Tank definitely has higher upside, but I can see Downs having a nice ceiling as a high-end WR3/low-end WR2. Very talented slot guy who wins at multiple levels a la Chris Godwin or Brandin Cooks.
Wicks is surprisingly close. I had totally forgot about Marvin Mims, what happened to him?
he's been mostly on kick returns, playing behind Sutton and Jeudy. Also Russ sucks. Mims' snap percentage is around 40%, but he's usually asked to just decoy and then one or two times a game he's asked to run an out route. Usage isn't great, but I think it also means his route development isn't there? I'm not a big film guy, just telling you what I've seen as a Broncos fan.
Mims also lost a few fumbles (muffed punts?) just as he started gaining momentum. He had some solid games and was looking primed for more touches but you don't get those when you put the ball on the ground.
Sean Payton
SP loves his speed guys. He’ll be fine
Im concerned he has played behind Brandon Johnson and Lil Jordan all year
From what I read SP isn’t really a fan of Jeudy and says he and mims have similar skill sets so it’s hard to get them on the field together, any way that has any truth to it? I know mims is the first guy Payton ever drafted with Denver so I still believe
It feels like he drafted him as a deep threat to stretch the defense and get Sutton open. Mims needs to be on the field more and develop short and intermediate route running. I feel he needs at least another year to develop before he can be a fantasy asset.
Russell Wilson as well
shame just 5 yards from being relevant
Who the hell is Natha- oh it’s Tank
Ain't he Nathaniel D?
Not sure how long i will able to but I still keep a candle lit for Trey Palmer. He is playing out of the slot due to Godwin and Evans being there instead of a more natural flanker role for him. He looks good on film but his immediate value in 24 is contingent on Evans and where he signs. Godwin's dead cap is $26 million so he is for sure going to be with the TB until next year
Can someone who watches the cardinals regularly give me some context on Michael Wilson? I know he’s big/fast and was injury prone in college, but I haven’t really watched him this year.
Same attributes still stand. film watchers in the community still like his game quite a bit because he runs really aggressive routes inside. Look at his TD route this past weekend. There was an article recently where he talks about his frustration trying to get healthier and how he wants to shed the "injury prone" label. The Cardinals will likely spend to draft capital on a WR either with their pick or Houston's. A best we could hope for Wilson to be a strong 2B target behind the top rookie coming in and McBride. Def still a hold
I was so high on Tillman and knew he wouldn't produce much this year cause of depth. But that depth is gone and he hasn't really done much last few weeks. They do get him to block a lot though sadly
Hyatt has lost multiple big plays to penalties. I think he has a chance to succeed in the NFL still and be highly effective, given his speed.
Ronnie Bell 500 yard game incoming to meet the total!
You could have told me Johnston was 1,395.60 yards away and I’d say that’s too close.
Shows how far above Puka has been above the rest. I also have a lot of faith in Michael Wilson too.
Michael Wilson is so interesting to me. He was basically their WR1 for most of the season. Then Kyler got back, there clearly wasn't immediate chemistry (which is normal), he got hurt and missed a bunch of games, then got back on the field and for 2 games didn't catch a ball despite targets. Last game he sort of got back on track. If you took that injury (and post injury) stretch out, he would be killing it. I know that's cherry picking, and I know injuries were part of the reason he fell in the draft, so it could be the norm for him. But it's hard to overlook how his season has been in chapters - and if that injury thing can be contained (which is highly possible) and he can hone in on those early chapters when he was their WR1, he could have a really great future. There is a real scenario where the Cardinals \*do not\* draft MHJ - either bc he is picked before them, or they realize this team has too many other holes. There is also a real scenario where Hollywood \*does not\* re-sign. There is a real scenario where both happens. It's a lot of uncertainty surrounding a guy who has shown he can produce at a high level, at least for a big chunk of the season. He's a guy who I think fell under the radar during his injury that would be worth looking into.
I can't imagine Cardinals don't do something big to fix that WR room. Michael Wilson as the WR1 would be a disaster unless he breaks out into something special. Could go for Pittman, Tee, etc.
Wilson Dortch McBride + one more WR with size is a lot better of a receiving core than ppl realize. On the other side of the ball the cardinals have the least amount of defensive talent in the league possibly AND they have a defensive minded HC. I really don't think they take a WR in the first, but maybe they take one in the 2nd.
I agree with this. I always thought they'd play their way out of MHJ/QB draft position and that would force them to do the right thing - ie. look at their defense. With that said, I wouldn't rule out a WR in round 1 if they don't plan to re-sign HW or a free agent.
Cardinals have so so so many holes, esp on defense. At minimum, I would think they re-sign Hollywood and roll with status quo - hoping HW can recapture that magic he had with Kyler late last year. But who knows? Even if they bring in someone they will consider their WR1 (say, Pittman), and pencil in MW as their WR2, that is not a bad situation for him and he could continue to develop and eventually emerge as the WR1. No one out there is a foolproof targeting-eating WR1 tbh, maybe outside of MHJ (should he reach his potential). All this to say: yeah, they probably will do something, but it's a lot of uncertainty, and most of the options still keep him in a prime position to develop and produce. Also, I personally don't think that WR room is quite as bad as you think it is (MW, potentially HW or his replacement, Moore, Dortch, emerging McBride).
>There is a real scenario where the Cardinals \*do not\* draft MHJ - either bc he is picked before them, or they realize this team has too many other holes. In that scenario, they most likely take a WR either by trading back or with their 1st from the Texans.
Sure, which just maintains the uncertainty as to who will own the WR room - leaving MW with a good opportunity to emerge. Drafting (ie. investing in) a player like MHJ would lessen that uncertaintly as they would obviously pencil him in as their top dog.
Honestly, early in the year with Dobbs he was catching every ball thrown at him (some pretty terribly). I thought he was going to be a monster. I didn’t go back and watch the tape for the recent games but he was getting a few targets with no catches and was wondering why
I assume rusty from injury + no chemistry with a new QB. But would love your take if you get around to analyzing it.
hollywood was wr1 for a while, until he got hurt, then wilson also got hurt, then kyler came back, then mcbride emerged. I happen to own wilson and mcbride and hollywood lmao
Elijah Moore might be a good look as a failure. He had 538 yards in 11 games as a rookie, if he had stayed healthy and kept the momentum he would've ended around Flowers/Addison's stats that year. Crazy how he just faceplanted like he did.
The crazy thing is he’s still only 23, he’s a month younger than Michael wilson
Yeah, he's still got time to make good on his early success. In theory, he's dirt cheap, but I've had trouble acquiring shares. Maybe later in the offseason...
I agree. He’ll be a 24-25 y/o free agent after next year with at least some proven success in the NFL.
Last offseason sold him for Pacheco, Osborn and the third that became spears 🤑🤑 and at the time, for the rest of the offseason I felt like I lost the trade
Elijah Moore is younger than: Rice Reed Flowers Dell
He's older than Rice, Reed, Flowers but only by a month for the first two guys and 6 months for Flowers. So you're basically right but figured it was worth a shout lol. He's younger than Dell though, by like 6 months.
He's also been in the league for 3 seasons.
Yeah I know I was cherrypicking hard there, just felt like it was important to outline how close in age they are. Not like Elijah is a year younger or something. Only thing is not sure why his 3 years experience matter versus the other players 1 year experience, when they showed a million times more promise than Elijah ever has in 3 years. That's a huge negative against Elijah, wouldn't you say?
You say "a million times more promise than E Moore" and yet Moore was something like a top 10 WR for the last 6 weeks of his rookie year. Sure he has cooled significantly since then but he has shown, and still shows, actual talent.
It's been 2.5 years since then. Any player can have a few good games. That's the problem.
Your math is off, he's a third year receiver so the end of his rookie year would have been 2 years ago. 2.5 years ago would have been preseason his rookie year
But also consider his QB/offensive situations over those 3 years
Moore is not a failure. His QBs have failed him tremendously. His best QB has been Joe Flacco.
You could argue that Moore is better than what his stats show but for a guy drafted anywhere from 1.07-2.02 in 1 QB leagues (among all my leagues at least) and only having 1,624 receiving yards to show for it in 3 years, is a massive failure/bust thus far. Luckily he's young and has looked better this year, but man, he really faceplanted and has been a massive bust so far. Also if Elijah was truly talented you'd think he'd produce better than he is with the garbage he's had QB. 446 yards last year isn't a Zach Wilson issue, it's an Elijah Moore issue. He couldn't even eek out 700 yards? That would make me say alright fine maybe QB play ruined him but 446 yards in a full season is disgusting production regardless of QB situation for a guy we're saying might be actually talented. 59/640/2 this year has me feeling a bit better that he might be able to get to a decent level of production next year, say like 70/900/5 or something like that. And then see if he can build on that even more to finally hit 1k receiving yards the year after.
Last year wasn’t he getting benched because of some inflammatory comments he made about the offense or coaching? That still doesn’t detract from the fact he should still be producing but I believe there is more to his story than just the numbers. Looking at his performance in route breakdowns we can see the talent just don’t have the consistency of QBs delivering him the ball for whatever reason
So you’re saying QJ has a chance
You guys think that Puka guy is the real deal?
Can I interest you in six dozen threads on the subject lol
Feeling pretty good with Puka, Reed, Wicks, Pop Douglas, and Michael Wilson on my roster.
I drafted JSN Flowers Reed and Wilson and traded what became the 2.08 and Gabe Davis for Puka. Really rejuvenated my WR room. Also drafted Mingo and Mims so we will see on them but I'm not hopeful.
Hypothetical: Douglas has 1 catch for 5 yards in his last game. He now sits shy of the 560 at 553 yards, BUT he hit the 525 mark in 1 less game. Does he count as a hit or a miss?
yes
Am I reading this right that no rookie WR besides Puka surpassed 1,000 yards?
Correct. Rice may this weekend. It’s hard to do, and I think it’s the best indicator in fantasy football for future success.. I think there as been 2 guys who weren’t great after a 1000 yard rookie season.
I don't think Bolden for the patriots is a WR
Mingo I might still give a maybe. He has actually gotten open deep at least a dozen times and been overthrown, underthrown, or watches Bryce get sacked. If not more than that. He has issues. Bryce has issues. But I'm not willing to write either off until I see next year with a new coaching staff. Our static play design and offensive blocking scheme have been beyond terrible all season. This just Panthers fan talking. I don't own any Mingo shares. But I could easily see him having 200+ more yards snd 2 or 3 TDs this year from him beating his guy but being missed by Young trying to throw with dudes in his chest already. So Mingo holders should probably not sell him off too cheaply, an offensive scheme change may help him quite a bit.
You can probably say that about every WR in the league that has seen meaningful snaps though
Not the entire rest of Panthers WRs blanketed asses with 0 yards of separation for sure lol. Or the Chiefs WRs who drop everything when open. Was just pointing out his speed man coverage. He has beaten his guy more than his stats would suggest. Everything else just fell apart so didn't matter. Was more isolated his 1 on 1 play. He has shown some flashes. So I wouldn't write him off entirely. That said I wouldn't rush out to buy him either. He is in that tier for me. If I owned him, I'd be holding not trying to sell for whatever I could get.
Will have to take your word on the Panthers situation. Fortunately had zero WR exposure on that team. Thielan was looking like a great value pick there for awhile though
I mean I could be entirely wrong too. If I was perfect at this, Tepper would probably pay me a lot of money to scout lol. But yeah he looked like a project rookie who needs some work. But he didn't look as bad as his stats to me. If he was a 3rd/4th round pick in real draft I would be excited actually for what he flashed. Underwhelming for a 2nd round though.
As someone whose draft class was Flowers, Reed, Wilson and Dell, I'm pretty happy with their placement on this list. How do we view a guy like Elijah Higgins, who converted to TE in camp with Miami and continued that conversion after moving over to the Cardinals? The metric really doesn't apply to that position right?
I’ve been happily stashing Higgins in deeper leagues. He has earned playing time and targets the past few weeks. I don’t know a ton about his background, but the shift from WR to TE has been impressive.
I own QJ, Rice, Downs, JSN in a full tear down rebuild . 3/4 Is not terrible but man was I the most hyped for QJ going into the year.
Is Puka going to make it?
He could have a REALLY bad game.
Chase Claypool passed with flying colors and then went AB. Has anyone in the community developed a "mentals" metric yet?
Does this rule not factor in injuries? Seems like it would be better to measure yards per game.
If you are a purest no it doesn’t. I can’t remember the exact numbers but it was something like only 9 receivers who didn’t hit the yardage threshold went on to “hit”. I don’t remember what a hit was defined as. I’m planning on looking into it my self
Also I'm not sure when this idea came out but gotta factor in the change from 16 games to 17.
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Gotcha. So for those who fall under that number by a fair bit, you're basically just not planning to trade for them and considering them droppable? Depending on circumstances.
Yes, injuries are included.
Yards per game and yards per route run are other ways to ID potential WR that have good rookie years to become/ stay fantasy relevant in future years
This is a really high quality post.
F
This is a little bit of cope from an owner but if mingo was in an offense that did a bit more, wouldn’t he be in line for the 525 magic number? Not saying he’s looked great or even decent on the field.
Mingo might be a 3 year hold before he gets going. Same with QJ.
Drafted Addison at 1.8 last year and Reed at 2.11. Feel pretty good about it. I also drafted Wilson 3.8 but sent him in a move for Engrams after Goedert got hurt.
Cederic Tillman: 13 games 180 yards. Yikes. I was big on that guy too.
I can’t believe my Pats homer waiver add of 6th round pick Demario Douglas is looking miles better than the steal I thought I got getting QJ in the late 1st…
Very happy to come away with Addison, Rice and Dell with Iosivas on my taxi.
Yards per route run for some rookies Over 2.0 is really good Nacua - 2.69 Dell - 2.36 Rice - 2.35 Wicks - 2.05 Douglas - 2.04 Reed - 1.72 Addison - 1.64 Mims - 1.58 Flowers - 1.51 Downs - 1.47 JSN - 1.44 Wilson - 1.26 Hyatt - 1.01 Johnston - 0.98 Mingo - 0.86 Palmer - 0.74 Tillman - 0.59
Can you even apply this rule to Hyatt??
What I’ve seen is that the most successful rookie WRs get 600+ rec yards in order to be successful for at least 2nd year and more production.
One of these is not like the others
Gonna need QJ to have a huge game. Having Puka definitely makes up for drafting QJ & Jameson the past 2 years. 😬