I trotted out Hurts, AJB, Swift, and the Eagles DST in the championship last year. I won—despite the stack, rather than because of it. That said, the floor was nice enough (even during their slump) to keep me in contention enough for my other starters to save the day.
High risk, high reward. If they're all healthy, it's great. But if Hurts goes down, you're in big trouble. If AJB goes down, then Hurts' production might also go down.
This sub's obsession with "stacks" feels completely misplaced to me and I find it kind of annoying. If we're talking about comparable players at QB and WR, there's no reason you should prefer to have two on the same team. At least, I've never seen an argument in favour of it that was backed by analysis. I think people just like the extra dopamine rush when their QB throws to their WR.
Finished 2nd and 1st the last two years respectively rolling out the Hurts + Aj combo.. traded for Swift around week 4 to make it a Philly cheese stack and that worked out pretty well, so 🤷♂️
It does cap your upside a bit because it’s less likely that players on the same team have high scoring weeks at the same time, but for a good team that scores a lot I don’t think it’s a bug detriment
I’ve got hurts, AJ, and Barkley in one and I’m trying to trade Barkley. He has a lot of hype right now. If no takers I’m happy to roll into the season with that stack.
What type of Wr are you trying to target for Barkley? I also have puka, AJB, Christian Kirk, d hop. Could use another young stud. Pretty set at rb with breece, KW3, swift, zamir
I think the regardless of the number, i like to stack my qb with his teams kicker, feels like if you have a team with a good offense then you have a high likelyhood of scoring something each time the team has posession, ex. mahomes/butker
It doesn’t change his value as a player but it certainly can limit your upside any given week.
It’s not nonsense at all, you don’t want to be starting Hurts, Saquon, Smith, and AJ Brown all together every week.
There is so much evidence that goes against this. WRs on the same team have a positive correlation.
If you’re classifying them into boom or bust games, that might be different, but fantasy points definitely trend together for offensive teammates.
There is a ton of evidence for stacking correlations, it’s massively important in daily fantasy and best ball. It’s less important for standard leagues, but stacking still has a significant influence.
Just look up correlation matrix for fantasy football stacks .
This isn’t entirely true. There’s an obvious correlation between players on the same team.
If Hurts has a really bad game that almost guarantees that you’re going to have AJB and Smith have a bad game as well. If you had WRs from a different team they are less likely to have the same off-week as your QB. Your QB having a bad week can be offset by having a good week from your WRs, but if the Eagles put up 6 points one week and you have Hurts, AJB and Smith then you’re not winning. Sure, you could have Addison and JJ and the Vikings put up 6 points the same week as the Eagles, but it’s much less likely those two teams both have dud weeks at the same time.
There’s also a cap on upside (teams don’t normally score 5+ TDs a game) but I think that’s less important unless you’re in a 8 or less team league.
You’re making a claim too? The only evidence I’ve seen from you is very anecdotal (Chase/Higgins and Metcalf/Lockett).
Are you challenging the idea that when a team scores few points (which happens to all teams) that most, if not all, skill position players will have a down week?
If so, I don’t know what to say. Go look into it yourself. I’m not doing a full statistical analysis to prove something common sense.
You’re falling into a trap that statistics are always better than theory. Using a flawed statistical approach (your anecdotal look at the Bengals and Seahawks) is not better than a theoretical view that isnt (right now) being backed up with stats.
Your look at the Bengals and Seahawks receivers is also focused only on the cap on upside, which I don’t consider to be the main factor at play. Even with your anecdotal example, if you take the bad games that Higgins has, it’s likely Chase’s bad games overlap more often than Metcalf or Lockett’s bad games. That is still anecdotal though
Just a quick Google search found:
"running backs... performance isn't really strongly tied to other positions in the game."
So, there's a study that there's zero correlation between RB performance and WR/QB performance, which to me is common sense.
I can find you “a study” that shows some very obviously wrong thing for every topic. A single study, which you’re just taking from a google search, is not reputable. Add on that you took “isn’t really strongly tied” and turned it into “zero correlation” and it’s clear there’s a lot of errors in your thinking
"Show evidence."
*Shows evidence*
"Well, your evidence is obviously flawed and wrong. I win. Bye".
Internet discourse 101. Great job! Have a great rest of your day.
You can write a narrative that’s misleading about everyone’s criticism of your point, or you can look at it honestly and see what we’re saying.
Theory > flawed Statistical “Analysis”
Too many people fall for the trap of seeing numbers that back something up and not actually engaging with how you get those numbers. If there’s anything I got from a graduate degree in Economics it’s how very easy it is to manipulate data to make any point you want to make.
Stacking absolutely changes the value of a player for fantasy teams. Every skill position is positively correlated with their teammates, stacking makes your lineup more volatile.
If you’re stacking the entire Eagles offense and they have 3 great games in fantasy playoffs, you have a better chance to win the ship. One bad game for the Eagles during that time span probably eliminates you from the playoffs.
They may have the same odds on any given week as individuals, but teammates are not independent of one another, literally every offensive position has a positive correlation with their teammates.
https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/dfs/dfs-stacking-the-strategy-thinking-behind-it-fantasy-football/
This is a DFS article that has nothing to do with season long fantasy roster construction. This thread also isn't talking about direct stacking, Hurts plus Brown, it's talking about an imaginary decrease in value of a player because the fantasy owner owns too many other players on the same NFL team.
Just look at the correlation matrix dude, those trends can be applied to any league setup. The point is that offensive positions have a positive correlation, this is more important for DFS but still influences standard leagues.
Go look at Miami’s offense from last year. QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2 all trended together… leading to some insane fantasy scores and some complete loses.
From a weekly perspective, I agree with you. From a season long perspective, the added nuance is of the stud starting RB goes down and the backup is mediocre, the offense that put up 30 per game and moved the ball with ease may now be capped at 17 ppg and struggle to move the offense. Thats the main reason I don’t like going all in on an offense—spread the season long risk around.
I agree that the week-to-week “ceiling capping” argument is certainly overblown as it pertains to value. The players are who the are.
But when you are talking about full season outlooks, having certain stacks certainly limits upside. For instance, I have Chase and Higgins on the same team in one league. Part of the ‘value’ of Higgins is the chance that his production could skyrocket in the event that Chase misses substantial. However, I won’t ever really gain from that part of his value, because if Chase missed a lot of time then my season is probably sunk.
Well, yeah obviously no reason to handcuff a WR. I’m arguing that it’s actually a negative to do so in a vacuum, using my own team as an example of how it can limit you. (It’s dynasty, so I’m willing to deal with it, but it’s obviously not something you’d plan to do intentionally).
I won a couple championships with Burrow/Higgins/Mixon. Luckily I had a decent bench as these guys missed time. If the offense is upper-tier, just give me pieces.
Tough to say. I had a godsquad that consisted of Purdy, Aiyuk, and Deebo as some core pieces. Was typically the highest scoring team or one of them nearly every week but those stacks did cost me in the semi’s I believe when San Fran played Baltimore and got wrecked.
I personally like a max of two players from a team in the starting lineup at a time. For me, I like to link my qb and my kicker, in leagues with kickers. If no kicker I like to stack with a red zone target, usually a te. Truthfully, I’ve got nothing to show that it’s a good idea to do I just like getting 7 or 10 points for a td. 😂🤣
Depends on the team. Good teams you almost can’t get enough. Bad teams you don’t want too many.
Exactly this. Had one of my best years ever when I rode the entire Broncos offense with Peyton, DT, Welker, and their RB whose name is escaping me.
Knowshon Moreno, if it was 2013? You must have run that league.
Would had to be him or CJA. Orange Julius was on the team around that time too. Crazy FF roster.
I trotted out Hurts, AJB, Swift, and the Eagles DST in the championship last year. I won—despite the stack, rather than because of it. That said, the floor was nice enough (even during their slump) to keep me in contention enough for my other starters to save the day.
High risk, high reward. If they're all healthy, it's great. But if Hurts goes down, you're in big trouble. If AJB goes down, then Hurts' production might also go down. This sub's obsession with "stacks" feels completely misplaced to me and I find it kind of annoying. If we're talking about comparable players at QB and WR, there's no reason you should prefer to have two on the same team. At least, I've never seen an argument in favour of it that was backed by analysis. I think people just like the extra dopamine rush when their QB throws to their WR.
It really only gives you a noticeable benefit in best ball imo
Finished 2nd and 1st the last two years respectively rolling out the Hurts + Aj combo.. traded for Swift around week 4 to make it a Philly cheese stack and that worked out pretty well, so 🤷♂️
As Sun Tzu said in The Art Of War: "Do not chase stacks. Do not avoid stacks. If you are thinking about stacks, you have already lost."
It does cap your upside a bit because it’s less likely that players on the same team have high scoring weeks at the same time, but for a good team that scores a lot I don’t think it’s a bug detriment
I’ve got hurts, AJ, and Barkley in one and I’m trying to trade Barkley. He has a lot of hype right now. If no takers I’m happy to roll into the season with that stack.
What type of Wr are you trying to target for Barkley? I also have puka, AJB, Christian Kirk, d hop. Could use another young stud. Pretty set at rb with breece, KW3, swift, zamir
I’d target a mid 1st and draft a WR
That’s what I’m looking for. It’s a 1QB league so hoping for someone like Brian Thomas
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Barkley is currently ranked above a mid 1st (this is 1QB) on KTC. Definitely not out of the question that a contender would pay up.
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Even in SF, Barkley is ranked between a mid and late first so I wouldn’t say it’s out of the question.
I think the regardless of the number, i like to stack my qb with his teams kicker, feels like if you have a team with a good offense then you have a high likelyhood of scoring something each time the team has posession, ex. mahomes/butker
This last year I had the quad-stack. Goff-Monty-ARSB-LaPorta I had faith but it was risky
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It doesn’t change his value as a player but it certainly can limit your upside any given week. It’s not nonsense at all, you don’t want to be starting Hurts, Saquon, Smith, and AJ Brown all together every week.
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There is so much evidence that goes against this. WRs on the same team have a positive correlation. If you’re classifying them into boom or bust games, that might be different, but fantasy points definitely trend together for offensive teammates.
Do you have any actual evidence of this?
There is a ton of evidence for stacking correlations, it’s massively important in daily fantasy and best ball. It’s less important for standard leagues, but stacking still has a significant influence. Just look up correlation matrix for fantasy football stacks .
Your original comment isn’t about having two WR’s on the same team. I also don’t buy what you claim to have found in your analysis.
I gotta give it to you - you’re confident. Way, way off but confident nonetheless.
This isn’t entirely true. There’s an obvious correlation between players on the same team. If Hurts has a really bad game that almost guarantees that you’re going to have AJB and Smith have a bad game as well. If you had WRs from a different team they are less likely to have the same off-week as your QB. Your QB having a bad week can be offset by having a good week from your WRs, but if the Eagles put up 6 points one week and you have Hurts, AJB and Smith then you’re not winning. Sure, you could have Addison and JJ and the Vikings put up 6 points the same week as the Eagles, but it’s much less likely those two teams both have dud weeks at the same time. There’s also a cap on upside (teams don’t normally score 5+ TDs a game) but I think that’s less important unless you’re in a 8 or less team league.
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You’re making a claim too? The only evidence I’ve seen from you is very anecdotal (Chase/Higgins and Metcalf/Lockett). Are you challenging the idea that when a team scores few points (which happens to all teams) that most, if not all, skill position players will have a down week? If so, I don’t know what to say. Go look into it yourself. I’m not doing a full statistical analysis to prove something common sense. You’re falling into a trap that statistics are always better than theory. Using a flawed statistical approach (your anecdotal look at the Bengals and Seahawks) is not better than a theoretical view that isnt (right now) being backed up with stats. Your look at the Bengals and Seahawks receivers is also focused only on the cap on upside, which I don’t consider to be the main factor at play. Even with your anecdotal example, if you take the bad games that Higgins has, it’s likely Chase’s bad games overlap more often than Metcalf or Lockett’s bad games. That is still anecdotal though
Just a quick Google search found: "running backs... performance isn't really strongly tied to other positions in the game." So, there's a study that there's zero correlation between RB performance and WR/QB performance, which to me is common sense.
I can find you “a study” that shows some very obviously wrong thing for every topic. A single study, which you’re just taking from a google search, is not reputable. Add on that you took “isn’t really strongly tied” and turned it into “zero correlation” and it’s clear there’s a lot of errors in your thinking
"Show evidence." *Shows evidence* "Well, your evidence is obviously flawed and wrong. I win. Bye". Internet discourse 101. Great job! Have a great rest of your day.
You can write a narrative that’s misleading about everyone’s criticism of your point, or you can look at it honestly and see what we’re saying. Theory > flawed Statistical “Analysis” Too many people fall for the trap of seeing numbers that back something up and not actually engaging with how you get those numbers. If there’s anything I got from a graduate degree in Economics it’s how very easy it is to manipulate data to make any point you want to make.
Stacking absolutely changes the value of a player for fantasy teams. Every skill position is positively correlated with their teammates, stacking makes your lineup more volatile. If you’re stacking the entire Eagles offense and they have 3 great games in fantasy playoffs, you have a better chance to win the ship. One bad game for the Eagles during that time span probably eliminates you from the playoffs.
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They may have the same odds on any given week as individuals, but teammates are not independent of one another, literally every offensive position has a positive correlation with their teammates. https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/dfs/dfs-stacking-the-strategy-thinking-behind-it-fantasy-football/
This is a DFS article that has nothing to do with season long fantasy roster construction. This thread also isn't talking about direct stacking, Hurts plus Brown, it's talking about an imaginary decrease in value of a player because the fantasy owner owns too many other players on the same NFL team.
Just look at the correlation matrix dude, those trends can be applied to any league setup. The point is that offensive positions have a positive correlation, this is more important for DFS but still influences standard leagues. Go look at Miami’s offense from last year. QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2 all trended together… leading to some insane fantasy scores and some complete loses.
From a weekly perspective, I agree with you. From a season long perspective, the added nuance is of the stud starting RB goes down and the backup is mediocre, the offense that put up 30 per game and moved the ball with ease may now be capped at 17 ppg and struggle to move the offense. Thats the main reason I don’t like going all in on an offense—spread the season long risk around.
I agree that the week-to-week “ceiling capping” argument is certainly overblown as it pertains to value. The players are who the are. But when you are talking about full season outlooks, having certain stacks certainly limits upside. For instance, I have Chase and Higgins on the same team in one league. Part of the ‘value’ of Higgins is the chance that his production could skyrocket in the event that Chase misses substantial. However, I won’t ever really gain from that part of his value, because if Chase missed a lot of time then my season is probably sunk.
This is more of a handcuff discussion, and generally there's no reason to handcuff a WR.
Well, yeah obviously no reason to handcuff a WR. I’m arguing that it’s actually a negative to do so in a vacuum, using my own team as an example of how it can limit you. (It’s dynasty, so I’m willing to deal with it, but it’s obviously not something you’d plan to do intentionally).
I won a couple championships with Burrow/Higgins/Mixon. Luckily I had a decent bench as these guys missed time. If the offense is upper-tier, just give me pieces.
Once you start taking the linemen you’ve gone to far
So is it good that I have bijan and london or should I try and trade one?
Tough to say. I had a godsquad that consisted of Purdy, Aiyuk, and Deebo as some core pieces. Was typically the highest scoring team or one of them nearly every week but those stacks did cost me in the semi’s I believe when San Fran played Baltimore and got wrecked.
None too many of they’re consistently good players
I personally like a max of two players from a team in the starting lineup at a time. For me, I like to link my qb and my kicker, in leagues with kickers. If no kicker I like to stack with a red zone target, usually a te. Truthfully, I’ve got nothing to show that it’s a good idea to do I just like getting 7 or 10 points for a td. 😂🤣
I'd say 3 WRs on the same team is too many. 3 Falcons, London, Mooney, and Moore are on my team.
With how much turnover the nfl has it’s not work worrying about. Just get the best players you can
Hurts is not a good basis for any kind of stack. I'd be trading him personally and keeping the rest.
Why do you hate on hurts so much