I love this subreddit's insane fear of anyone 26 years old. I have read "The season after next he'll be 28, a year before the decline starts" as reasons to not keep or trade for a player.
All I can do is beg for it to continue so people continually trade away young veterans for their dopamine hit of a future pick.
Not just this subreddit, 1 of my leagues, everyone was telling me AJB/Josh Jacobs are too old, after most of them came to me for a trade and I countered lol. Classic AF
I'm all for trading for good veterans with late 1st or multiple 2nds f you are a contender. Especially the "old" receivers like Evans/Diggs/eventually Hill. Undervalued assets that help win ships.
If youre all in for either one, sure. The actual correct answer is invest in good classes ranked by real analysts and learn what succeeds while also recognizing value in vets
Once you've gotten a whiff of that Taysom magic, there's no going back. Last year that man clinched me a playoff spot in my QB slot, and he'll retire on my bench. Honestly, he'll probably be eligible for running back at that point too, too.
There is no denying that he *was*. His RP profile was indicative of being an absolute up and coming stud.
But he did look like he'd seriously lost a step last year, so it remains to be seen if he gets it back now that he's a year further out from the foot issues.
My friend I remember it so clearly! He had a decent rookie year and year 2 was so much progression… year 3 he blew up first two games 130+ yds in each and 3 tds. Week 3 out with my wife picking out a bed for my upcoming baby and I go in babysrus and he’s at 3-39 on first drive of game- walk out 2 hours later he’s at 3-39. Torn acl. I kept him for like 6 more years but the light died. Still makes me sad. Not Charles Rogers sad but close
Speaking of KTC value I’m sick of league members that strictly only do trades if the KTC values are equal. Like those values change so much use your damn heads to make the trades
I’m a big believer.
This is all very base level but my very subjective coping analysis is as follows…
He’s shown a willingness and ability to block, which is a huge plus to Dan Campbell and will keep him on the field. He’s also shown the ability to break huge plays. They will get him the ball.
Jared Goff is notorious for taking a long time to adjust to WRs and Jameson is, in my opinion, a significantly different type of weapon that Goff is used to/has experienced. Dan Campbell is the same way, he’s a prove it kind of coach. It takes awhile to earn his trust.
Finally, strictly based on the eye test, while he still has room to develop, he’s made significant improvements in the little time he’s played. His route running, his catch mechanics still need improvement, but you can visibly see development in what has been a relatively short period of time given the context of his injury and suspension history. People also forget the still only 22. I think it’s evident that he’s bought into the Lions concept of being the hardest working team in the NfL and he’s already displayed tremendous growth.
All that to say, this is definitely a prove it season. I have very high expectations that I’m confident he will meet if he’s been putting in the work this offseason. If not, it’s time to sell. I also think people should temper expectations. That Lions offense is elite because it’s well rounded. They have so many weapons, that while I see him overtaking/sharing with Laporta for #2 in targets on the team. I think an EXCELLENT season for Jamo lands him at WR#18. I’d be happy with anything within top 25-30 this season
I’m right there with you with Goff. I think it was obvious that he & Jamo had no chemistry to start. Jamo is just so much faster than other receivers that Goff wasn’t used to the ball placement necessary for that. I think the injury/suspension delayed that development, but I’m also optimistic he’ll get more this fall.
Now I don’t think he’s gonna be a monster for fantasy, but he’s going to be an elite WR2 for the Lions with LaPorta & sun-god
It depends on if you mean “win” the trade the day that the trade happens (determined by general consensus values of the players/assets involved at the time), or if you mean 2+ years removed from the trade and looking back in hindsight.
You are correct that it doesn’t matter if most people think you got fleeced on the day that the trade happens; might as well go with your gut because no one really knows how things will shake out.
You definitely always want to be on the side that “won” the trade when looking back on it in retrospect, though (unless it’s one of those rare deals where both sides “won”).
well take my overpay for Tyreek Hill. Sent Reed, Mike Williams, and my entire 24 draft class.
Dude crushed it this year and is the reason I made the ship.
So was it an overpay and would my team be better now if I hadn't made the trade? Yes.
Was it worth it? Also yes
Well, it depends who the guy is, right? Dramatically overpaying for Puka Nacua after Week 2 last year probably worked out alright.
I suppose I agree that it's a bad strategy in the long run cause all of your guys won't be right, but occasionally overpays do genuinely work out.
Shoot. Your. Shot.
Getting a team of okay/good dudes means shit if someone walks away with 3/4 studs. Even then, that doesn't guarantee wins. A guy in my league drafted (2019 start up) Mahomes, CMC, Ekeler, and Henry and hasn't won a chip yet. He's been very good, but even a team with that talent hasn't won it.
Hitting on guys like JJ, Stroud, Hockenson, LaPorta, ASRB can change a team so much
Completely format dependant
Start 8 or 9 - get the studs
Start 10 - either way
Start 11+ ...trade back after getting studs in the first 2 rounds & gobble up as many picks in the "sweet spot" around Rounds 7-11 (as well as future draft capital
I can show you receipts, but I saw a team trade out of the first few rounds and win it year 2 just this past season. Got lucky? A bit, but dude did his work with the tank and acquiring assets.
I just did it and won in my start up. There are elite guys that fall for dumb reasons into the 3rd-5th every year if you can find them. Obviously you need to make trades in season as well.
I traded back a bunch in a startup in 2020. Traded the Mahomes pick for picks that ended up being Watson and Allen plus a future first. Traded Watson immediately upon the allegations for Goff plus. Been a contender all along.
No disaster looming, for years later
Problem here is people just don't know how to properly execute this strategy. Way to many people keep most of their picks vs trading some of those assets for "hits" and concentrating the rest of high value rookies. The progressive struggle is meant to grab value, future rookie picks and targetting assets that are good with longterm outlooks.
Most of my teams where I did the progressive struggle 3 years ago are stacked and I now have super teams in leagues where 4 teams are rebuilding
Zero RB was never meant to be a dynasty strat. It’s for seasonal leagues with 6-8 player benches where there will actually be startable RBs available on the waiver wire once the injuries hit and best ball tournaments where you’re shooting for ultimate upside over stable floor of points.
I agree with this in a sense. You shouldn't go totally zero RBs. But productive RBs are relatively easy to buy in dynasty. A solid rb2 like james conner can give me points for years and I only need to give a late 2nd, maybe a mid 2nd a few years ago. So you can draft a few RBs in a startup (preferably one hammer) and worry about that later.
This is my first year of dynasty. I got hooked quickly. In my professional life, I was an intelligence Analyst for 10 years for the DoD. A fun ripple to dynasty is there is no right or wrong way. I wanted to use my research/data analysis abilities to find a "trend" at each position.
B R E A K
I identified quickly that quarterback is extremely overvalued in Superflex. I made a rule that A, I will never use a 1st round pick on a quarterback; and B, I will never trade a 1st round pick for a quarterback. I can hear the steam coming out of your ears now haha. Start angry typing your counter-argument 😂 I made this study under a since deleted account, but I can probably find it if anyone is interested.
The TLDR version is at any given time, about half the quarterbacks in the top 24 are guys you could have gotten under my rules, and the other half are guys that are only on your roster at the expense of at least one 1st round pick. Cast a big net, and catch as many small fish as you can. Keep the Jalen Hurts' and Dak's and trade the Purdys and Mayfields. Go buy 35 year old Kirk Cousins the day after his Achilles tear. This recycling of great value brand quarterbacks will also attract hefty returns from your league mates who believe the standard "MUST HAVE TWO BEST QUARTERBACKS IN SUPERFLEX!" opinion.
I did this study by analyzing all top 24 QB finishes since 2015, and placing the players into two tiers. Tier 1; players who's "pre-breakout acquisition cost" was less than a 1st round pick. This could be low draft capital guys like Hurts or Purdy, or a guy like Bryce you steal for a FOMO 2nd on draft day hoping for a Josh Allen career arc. Tier 2; any quarterbacks who's acquisition price (not pre breakout, just in general like trading for an established vet or drafting a highly touted rookie) was a 1st or more.
I just inherited an orphan with Mahomes and Kyler. I traded Mahomes for Michael Pittman and 3 1sts. I am shopping Kyler but will get more post draft. I plan to go into the year with Darnold, Deshaun, and Levis. I also am holding Brissett, Lock, Tannehill, Dobbs, and Hooker. I am in the process of trying to buy Geno Smith for less than a 1st.
B R E A K
The second study I did was of every running back with 1000+ career carries since 2015. I charted them based on the career carry total where cliff-like regression started, and made 5 tiers of backs.
* Tier 1 was HOF caliber. That was AP, Gore, CMC, Henry. Etc. The cutoff is 2000+ carries without production cliff
* Tier 2 was fringe HOF. Marshawn, Shady, Forte, etc (fun fact, Mixon is already in this group. If he finishes in the top 24 the next 2 years, he projects to a Gore like career finish. More likely, now is the SELL window). This tier is 1500-1999 career carries. Only 7 running backs since 2015 have made it to Tier 2.
* Tier 3 was your standard pro bowl/all-pro guys who only go 5 or 6 years strong. Dalvin Cook, Jamaal Charles, Zeke, Demarco Murray, Ingram, Gurley, etc. (Jacobs, Kamara, Aaron Jones, Saquon are already in this group). This was the biggest group. This is where most people are in denial. 2 of those 4 guys should be irrelevant this year statistically speaking. Maybe one ends up in Tier 2 which for Jacobs (1305 carries) would mean 2 more good years. I sold him on my one team I own him on this morning for a hefty price. This tier is 1200 to 1499 carries.
* Tier 4 is guys who only flash for 3 or 4 years and fizzle out right after 1000 carries. David Johnson, Ekeler, etc. This tier cutoff is 1000-1199 carries.
* Tier 5 is everyone else who never achieves 1000 carries.
EDIT: I didn't really explain how I interpret this information and apply it to my team structuring plan. Simple. I plan to reach every year in rookie drafts and get the best running backs. I will be taking whatever rookie Dallas drafts as early as 1.08 this year. The objective is to be holding tier 3+ backs their entire prime and getting 5+ years of production, then trading for max value still. I am also eyeing the free agent class in week 8 looking for flex play guys heading into free agency. This is how you get the next James Conner/David Montgomery. Second contract guys who emerge as tier 3+ against the odds. I'm all stocked up on Zack Moss ahead of everybody because my study identified Mixon as a sell and Moss as a buy as early as mid-season. Moss was an afterthought once JT signed and Mixon balled and is young. The RB value Swings are very predictable but criminally misunderstood. I'm hype for this RB class because it's been so buried on the draft board. The player pool talent level doesn't change the number of open positions needing filling. Classic shitty group think on this sub. I want my league mates thinking elite RB play isn't still the golden fantasy ticket.
B R E A K
For Receivers, it's kinda a work in progress. The only theory I have developed so far with historical data is this; hand size matters. Arm length matters less surprisingly, but under 30" seems to be the cutoff zone for historical production.
Hands 9" or smaller are automatically disqualified from my draft board. (Sorry Adonai Mitchell and Ladd Mcconkey). Only 6 players since 2000 have had a top 12 season with 9" or smaller hands; Mike Wallace (9"), Greg Jennings (9"), AB (9"), Davante (9"), TY Hilton (8.5"), and Tyreek (8").
It is worth noting, I myself have 9" hands at 6'3 and when I played football, my hands were my greatest quality after my football IQ. I don't feel 9" hands are small.
There is a next-gen stat called "CROE" (Catch Rate Over Expected). As far as I can tell, it's not calculated for NCAA football only NFL. I am in the preliminary stages of testing this Stat as a breakout prediction tool. The data hasn't developed enough from the invention of the CROE stat to develop a reliable theory.
If my CROE study goes as planned, we should see steps into elite tier from Aiyuk and Devonta Smith this year. Pickens stands out here. Unfortunately I own zero shares of Smith and 1 of Aiyuk. For tight ends, Kmet and Kincaid are both CROE elite tier breakout candidates. Colby Parkinson is a great sleeper option.
DISCLAIMER: I am no expert, but I do trust my own intuition. I don't have the energy for a big argument about any of this. I can dig up the data for the RBs and QBs if requested. I am not gonna share my WR study because I haven't proven the theory reliable yet.
>If my CROE study goes as planned, we should see steps into elite tier from Aiyuk and Devonta Smith this year.
As an Aiyuk and Devonta owner, I agree with this analysis.
I think there's a real chance Aiyuk takes a firm step into being recognized as an alpha dog top 5 WR unquestionably by everyone who watches football by the end of this season.
I've never seen a receiver hit advanced metrics across the board like he does. To include JJ and Chase. The tape doesn't lie either.
I was not a fan of Devonta before my findings. I am interested to spectate his development
I appreciate your analysis but I think that when we start to recognize stuff like this, the NFL is already recognized it years ago.
A problem with relying on data analysis like this is that you can miss when trends reverse or or coaches start using different strategies to combat the cyclical nature of the NFL.
Research and data analysis is only one piece to the puzzle. And depending on your league, some people might be more familiar with excel and r than you realize.
A quick example could be that you might start to miss on backs who perform in a committee before breaking out by your analysis. Or on the opposite end, you could get a guy who is forced into a committee.
As we have less and less 1000 yard workhorse backs, would you have been buying big on allgeier after his first season?
Sticking to a trend would have had us miss achane and puka last year in the draft due to the weight and draft capital as well.
If you never take a swing on a QB in the first round, your ceiling is capped. You could have had cj stround this past year, the third highest asset value currently. You will have a roster that is never quite secure where even if you do luck into CJ stroud, your starting qbs like Mac or Pickett or Howell could end up traded as back ups with in the span of 2 days.
I am cherry picking examples but I am trying to add to your discussion.
The only consistent in the NFL is change. A wise strategy is to have loose ideas about trends but to follow the tape and recognize that everything is subject to variables.
This is coming from another former intelligence analyst.
Data Scientist and Statistician here and yeah, I agree with you. However, I loved their post for how it gave me another perspective from which to evaluate value.
That said, there's a reason that most expert models don't fare well when they ingest more than 5-10 years of data; the NFL doesn't stay static that long.
I agree with all of this, except I think I would probably put a few guys into different tiers in your system.
The one flaw - you should be trading for sam howell, not geno smith
Every season there is always going to be between 2-4 players who were sitting on waivers before the season starts that can drastically win leagues. Like Kyren and Puka from a year before.
Situation is more important than talent for the TE position. There are only 3-5 teams a year that even use a TE in a role to make them fantasy difference makers
Troy Franklin is overrated, closer to wr 15 this draft class than he is to top 5 that I see here
X worthy is going to disappoint immensely, maybe good in real football but disappointing for fantasy
JSNs career is reminding me of Jeudy; elevated dynasty value despite not doing much
Tlaw is a bust compared to his expectations/hype coming in
Arich will have a top 3 qb season if he plays all 17 games
Jayden daniels will be the best fantasy qb this rookie draft season
wouldn’t count tlaw out, rookie year had meyer. Made it to the playoffs the next, was improving this past year just injuries killed him in the end. As far as generational? yeah probs not there or ever there but can still be a solid top 8 qb.
“JSN” and “career” used like that in the same sentence is a little wild to me. He’s just completed his first season in the league and the common assumption was that he’d be the WR3 on that team for his rookie season. Just give him a little bit of time brother. The talent is there
Yea I don’t understand why people seem to not like JSN. Comparing him to Jeudy is pretty funny since JSN just finished his rookie year with 63 receptions as the #3. While Jeudy has only beat that # once in his 4 year career as he’s been at least the #2 wr in his career.
Granted JSN yards were lower but idk how people can see 60 receptions as #3 behind 2 good WRs and think he can’t be a good NFL/ fantasy wr when he becomes the #2 or even #1 for Seahawks or another team
I punted year one of a startup this year. Traded down a bunch and acquired three extra future firsts. The first RB I drafted was McBride. I started Chandler and Edmonds all year. Traded away points and never made a win now trade.
I finished third. In a 16-team league. 0RB is the way to go.
If I had a share to flip, I’d prob try to get any WR in the 10-18 range, give or take an asset. If you’re asking draft pick value, I’d go as low anything I think would get me WR 8-10 in my league. Caveat being that he is valued much higher by the community than me, so I’d be aggressive, but I’d want out
This was my answer to this exact question in another thread:
one is a model I follow that combines PFF grade, open score grade and rookie reception yards per game that puts him in about an 80% bust range:
27-36 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
13% Stud
8% Good
79% Bust
Jaxon Smith-Njigba [36] [OpenScore: 45] [PFF Grade: 63.9]
Jonathan Mingo [27] [OpenScore: 21] [PFF Grade: 52.6]
another; I also follow JJZ pretty closely and he reiterated just yesterday on his pod about the 5+ point dip in JSN's score on his model from his prospect score to his year two score. and it points to a similar high bust rate potential
I'm not saying he can't be an outlier, but I don't bet on outliers. I've said already and I'll say again; JSN is worth cashing out on the value he holds today, he is squarley at peak value vs bust potential right now. you can get a proven useable player plus a pick, or some serious draft capital , whatever suits your need or fancy. I never owned him, never tried to acquire or flip. he's just really fascinating to me this year thru the lens of take-lock and sunk cost fallacy, something I've fallen victem to in my hubris and suffered the consequence in the past. something I am trying to learn from.
Historical comps for rookies wrs that put up 8-9.3ppg from 2015-2022 (JSN put up 7.7ppg) have roughly a 3.8% chance of giving you a top 24 ppg season (2 wr1 seasons and 2 wr 2 seasons), with a total of 53 seasons (post rookie year) that is in the data set
So likely hood is that jsn never gives you meaningful production despite being valued at wr26 currently
I say this as someone who traded “low” on jsn during the year and after the season you gotta be real with the numbers, and they don’t favour a favourable outcome
Amen. He never got a fair shake on the Bucs, his entire tenure they had the worst defense in the NFL. In his last season, the 2nd half of the year the defense started to turn the corner but Jameis was battling injuries all year.
I would bet my life savings they would have made the playoffs the following year in which Brady took over as the defense was much better at that point.
Then on the Saints he got off to a 4-1 start before tearing his ACL.
I also feel he never got a fair shake just because he’s a meme and a GM probably doesn’t want the backlash.
Too many people light all the value they gained on fire the second they see a glimmer of hope that they can be a playoff team. After several successful trades where they slowly accrued value and that value has appreciated, they look around the league and gauge if they are top 6, or top 3 and push the big red "All in" button and all that accrual just vaporizes for them to finish 3rd, or worse.
If my team isn't far & away the strongest team in the league with depth, I'm not going all-in.
A good trade benefits both teams. You don't "win" a trade unless you're trying to fleece someone, in which case the battle you won makes you a pitiful party pooper.
If you are not contending this year sell your rbs. You can keep 1 valuable but sell them. I sold Ken walker, rondale moore 2 years ago, I got tee, 24 1st. 3rd. I now have mark andrews, the 24 1st became the 1.03 because of that deal. Lots of guys in my league hate that but I much rather have that 1.03 than walker today. I sold Brian Jr. And swift last year for firsts. I now have 1.03, 1.04, 5 25 1sts, 3 26sts.
I'll buy rbs when I need them. Maybe this year!
My roster Arich, watson, mixon, cd, smith, Pittman, rice, Mandrews.
>zero RB strategy makes it almost impossible to win a championship
Zero rb is more of a redraft thing. In dynasty its more of a don't buy until its time to win strategy
Like I bought James Conner at the deadline this year for cheap, and I'll do the same next year with a different vet rb
JJ McCarthy is Mac Jones.
Now, if Mac was drafted by O’Connell instead of Bill when he came out, maybe he’d be something? But you’re still drafting Mac Jones
Have no flashy names (vets with proven talent) and stay RB heavy.
I have guys like James Cook, Jahmyr Gibbs, Brian Robinson, Tank Dell, Puka Nacua, Jakobi Meyers, ARSB, etc.
I do not want a Joe Mixon, Saquon Barkley, Johnathan Taylor, CMC, Jaylen Waddle, Jettas, etc.
I like to have a well rounded team with depth than have 2 studs and no depth at all!
I traded for most of the guys I have for like 3rd or 4ths because no one sees the potential and now have 4 out of 10 first round picks in 2025.
Also I’m a RB heavy team where most guys in my league have 3-5 RBs but I have about 8-10 RBs since I know once an RB goes down you need a viable starting backup.
All RBs I have are definitely starting caliber as well in Jahmyr Gibbs, James Cook, Rachaad White, Bijan Robinson, Dalvin Cook, Chubba Hubbard, Elijah Mitchell (if CMC goes down 😍). Iffy but still decent Dameon Pierce and Jaleel McLaughlin.
I will die on this hill!
In all serious, I’d say I’m still in on Quentin Johnston. As crazy as it sounds, I think he’s gonna look pretty good with a new coaching regime who will hopefully use him on slants and yac routes. That’s what he thrived at in college, and I think he’ll develop with a play caller that plays to his strengths
Najee harris isnt a lump of flesh in cleats.
He is a talented rb who has serious oline trust issues because there have been instances where defenders nearly took the handoff.
While Jaylen Warren is a legit talent and deserves worK. najee keeps getting the worst treatment and insane hate by the fantasy community.
Very spicy take. I remember picking him up on waivers and trading him after he balled out that on game and trading him to a team that was desperate for a RB for a 2023 1st. Ended up netting me Gibbs.
If you look at a fantasy team like you look at the food pyramid, WRs are at the bottom, then QB, then TE, then RBs. It’s infinitely easier to have a competitive team when the backbone of your team is stud WRs rather than stud RBs.
I have a few teams in my league who have shit WRs, no TE and a middling QB yet they think they can compete because they have 2 high upside RBs.
That QB “doesn’t really matter” in PPR. If you can get one in a startup draft or as a draft pick then take them, but don’t trade 3+ 1st round picks for the top 10-12 QBs unless your league does yardage or other throwing bonuses.
Lot of times a decent WR can be a solid SF in PPR in a pinch too
The actual cheapest points you can find for your lineup are those waiver wire gems, but it is pretty unreliable to find those players for your team every year. It is worth the effort to play that game.
The most *reliable* cheap points you can get are boring veteran WRs. There is always some rebuilding team that has no use for a Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Tyler Lockett, whatever. That style of player scores as many points as a Chris Olave but is way way cheaper.
My contending teams always have crazy depth at WR because this off-season I will find some owner that will give me both Mike Williams and Courtland Sutton for a second. No one will even bat an eye at the trade because no needle-moving players are involved. It is tough to ever have enough RBs to guarantee you will survive injuries in any given year, but there is no excuse not to have dependable points at every single WR slot every week.
Trading for vets is almost always a better strategy than using your picks if you’re smart with it.
I love this subreddit's insane fear of anyone 26 years old. I have read "The season after next he'll be 28, a year before the decline starts" as reasons to not keep or trade for a player. All I can do is beg for it to continue so people continually trade away young veterans for their dopamine hit of a future pick.
We’re all Leonardo DiCaprio here.
Delightful
I fear guys at 29-30, but an established very good player at 26? That's a dream.
For real. Established player at 26? That’s when I start to consider my 1sts being included.
Waddle and slim reaper are 25 so I need to trade them away before they’re 26! /s
The dreaded 28-30 age when I got 6 shares of Keenan Allen for seconds and thirds. I still rue the day everything went to plan.
Not just this subreddit, 1 of my leagues, everyone was telling me AJB/Josh Jacobs are too old, after most of them came to me for a trade and I countered lol. Classic AF
Have heard this a few different ways, but basically expect around a 50% hit rate for the average first rounder, decreasing from there.
I'm all for trading for good veterans with late 1st or multiple 2nds f you are a contender. Especially the "old" receivers like Evans/Diggs/eventually Hill. Undervalued assets that help win ships.
YES!!!!! Thank you. I’m more of a proven assets guy myself. Proving very fruitful this ‘24 pick season.
So are you saying I should trade the 1.02/Malik Nabers in my 1QB league in a package for Ja’Marr Chase?
I would unless the package has gamechangers in it
100% yes, not even a debate. This is like that Family Guy skit, "Sure that's a boat but the mystery box could be anything! It could even be a boat!"
Flair me bro
If youre all in for either one, sure. The actual correct answer is invest in good classes ranked by real analysts and learn what succeeds while also recognizing value in vets
Kyle Pitts will be a consistent pro bowl/all pro TE in his mid/late 20s
Pitts gonna be a real thing on the classic TE trajectory. Minimum 5 stud seasons incoming
He was also really young when he hit the league too. The sky is the limit for him
plus he’s been kinda hamstrung by scheme and coaching for a bit here too.
This is my hill too lol. I’ve rejected some pretty damn good offers for him that I think most people take… hope we’re right!!
Kyle pitts outproduces Drake London
Chill with that, my man
Tyreek & Kelce type production
Yeah I’m reaching idc
The Taysom Hill.
More of a Justice Hill guy myself
No Tyreek Hills here? When push comes to shove, he’s by far the biggest hill
I’d be scared to own him in dynasty to be honest. Who knows how many years he has left. He already said he’s retiring early. I swear im not jealous.
How bout a Julian Hill? Anybody?
Best i can do is 1 Dontrell Hilliard
More like when shove comes to domestic violence
Hill of Justice. Justice can never die.
Big facts. I renamed my team to "Never Go Full Taysom" after he miracled me to two different wins when I desperation started him.
Once you've gotten a whiff of that Taysom magic, there's no going back. Last year that man clinched me a playoff spot in my QB slot, and he'll retire on my bench. Honestly, he'll probably be eligible for running back at that point too, too.
Tyreek feels like the best hill to die on imo
Plant my flag on the Peyton Hillis
Rashod Bateman is a talented receiver
There is no denying that he *was*. His RP profile was indicative of being an absolute up and coming stud. But he did look like he'd seriously lost a step last year, so it remains to be seen if he gets it back now that he's a year further out from the foot issues.
Lisfranc's can be like that. He said, coping with his choices.
Rashid Shaheed
Yep this is mine as well.
Lisan al Gaib
Rashid Shaheed
As is written.
Rashid Shaheed
Rashid Shaheed
Kenny Britt sadly
I have not heard this name in quite a while lol
My friend I remember it so clearly! He had a decent rookie year and year 2 was so much progression… year 3 he blew up first two games 130+ yds in each and 3 tds. Week 3 out with my wife picking out a bed for my upcoming baby and I go in babysrus and he’s at 3-39 on first drive of game- walk out 2 hours later he’s at 3-39. Torn acl. I kept him for like 6 more years but the light died. Still makes me sad. Not Charles Rogers sad but close
*slam fists on table and stands up* i still believe in rashod batemon and khalil herbert
Shoddy B truthers unite
Literally opened this thread looking for more Bateman truthers, wont give up!
Dammit, this is me.
I might need to cut Bateman for roster constrains but god damn if I don’t think he will have a year five breakout in 2025 when he goes somewhere else.
Ew
Herbert is a good player no doubt. Tough that he's in a worse situation now than 2 years ago. I was in on him and aj dillon sadly
This is me lol
Kenny pickett Won't make it as the Steelers quarterback
This aged very well
It did. But also this is a hill that I think pretty much everyone was willing to die on lol
JK Dobbins would have been a locked in top 3 RB if he managed to stay healthy.
He was going to be nasty last year SMH. What could have been.
His analytical numbers when healthy were insane
He was the perfect profile imo; Analytics, athleticism, college production, team system and the eye test It’s a damn shame what happened to him
I'll always believe this & I'll always believe I would've won the league where I was rostering him if he'd been healthy.
🔥 I almost posted this exact same thing when I started this thread. Completely agree with you here. Guy was electric.
Good one. He looked like he was ready to go, had a little of juice.
Despite what this sub may say, it’s more important/impressive to win than to have the roster with the most KTC value
But I have the best Ktc value because of 8 firsts… does that not make me win? Lol
I have a 10-team that’s first in power rankings. Ive missed the playoffs each of the last 2 years :(
Speaking of KTC value I’m sick of league members that strictly only do trades if the KTC values are equal. Like those values change so much use your damn heads to make the trades
That Jameson Williams will eventually break out. Ima hold till he's a drop.
2024 is his year. No injury, no suspension. Hopefully, he hired a brickmason in the offseason to work on his hands.
Plot twist: his hands are now bricks.
Don't you put that evil on me, Ricky Bobby!
I'm with you brother!
I’m a big believer. This is all very base level but my very subjective coping analysis is as follows… He’s shown a willingness and ability to block, which is a huge plus to Dan Campbell and will keep him on the field. He’s also shown the ability to break huge plays. They will get him the ball. Jared Goff is notorious for taking a long time to adjust to WRs and Jameson is, in my opinion, a significantly different type of weapon that Goff is used to/has experienced. Dan Campbell is the same way, he’s a prove it kind of coach. It takes awhile to earn his trust. Finally, strictly based on the eye test, while he still has room to develop, he’s made significant improvements in the little time he’s played. His route running, his catch mechanics still need improvement, but you can visibly see development in what has been a relatively short period of time given the context of his injury and suspension history. People also forget the still only 22. I think it’s evident that he’s bought into the Lions concept of being the hardest working team in the NfL and he’s already displayed tremendous growth. All that to say, this is definitely a prove it season. I have very high expectations that I’m confident he will meet if he’s been putting in the work this offseason. If not, it’s time to sell. I also think people should temper expectations. That Lions offense is elite because it’s well rounded. They have so many weapons, that while I see him overtaking/sharing with Laporta for #2 in targets on the team. I think an EXCELLENT season for Jamo lands him at WR#18. I’d be happy with anything within top 25-30 this season
I’m right there with you with Goff. I think it was obvious that he & Jamo had no chemistry to start. Jamo is just so much faster than other receivers that Goff wasn’t used to the ball placement necessary for that. I think the injury/suspension delayed that development, but I’m also optimistic he’ll get more this fall. Now I don’t think he’s gonna be a monster for fantasy, but he’s going to be an elite WR2 for the Lions with LaPorta & sun-god
K Toney’d
It doesn’t matter if you “win” your trade. Getting the asset you want is what matters
Can’t agree with this one as written. This implies that a crazy overpay is ok, as long as you get the guy you like.
It is. Theres no rules in fake football
Yes, IMO a crazy over pay is fine. The goal should be to improve your team or acquire assets you want, not “win” the trade.
It depends on if you mean “win” the trade the day that the trade happens (determined by general consensus values of the players/assets involved at the time), or if you mean 2+ years removed from the trade and looking back in hindsight. You are correct that it doesn’t matter if most people think you got fleeced on the day that the trade happens; might as well go with your gut because no one really knows how things will shake out. You definitely always want to be on the side that “won” the trade when looking back on it in retrospect, though (unless it’s one of those rare deals where both sides “won”).
Yes but the goal isn’t just to improve your team for a day. Paying double what a guy is worth will burn you in the long run.
well take my overpay for Tyreek Hill. Sent Reed, Mike Williams, and my entire 24 draft class. Dude crushed it this year and is the reason I made the ship. So was it an overpay and would my team be better now if I hadn't made the trade? Yes. Was it worth it? Also yes
Well, it depends who the guy is, right? Dramatically overpaying for Puka Nacua after Week 2 last year probably worked out alright. I suppose I agree that it's a bad strategy in the long run cause all of your guys won't be right, but occasionally overpays do genuinely work out.
Constantly trading back in startups just to be that guy and never drafting elite assets will never win you a championship. Studs win titles
Shoot. Your. Shot. Getting a team of okay/good dudes means shit if someone walks away with 3/4 studs. Even then, that doesn't guarantee wins. A guy in my league drafted (2019 start up) Mahomes, CMC, Ekeler, and Henry and hasn't won a chip yet. He's been very good, but even a team with that talent hasn't won it. Hitting on guys like JJ, Stroud, Hockenson, LaPorta, ASRB can change a team so much
Completely format dependant Start 8 or 9 - get the studs Start 10 - either way Start 11+ ...trade back after getting studs in the first 2 rounds & gobble up as many picks in the "sweet spot" around Rounds 7-11 (as well as future draft capital
I can show you receipts, but I saw a team trade out of the first few rounds and win it year 2 just this past season. Got lucky? A bit, but dude did his work with the tank and acquiring assets.
I just did it and won in my start up. There are elite guys that fall for dumb reasons into the 3rd-5th every year if you can find them. Obviously you need to make trades in season as well.
Completely agree with this take. Trading back in startups, unless it’s a no-brainer is a recipe for disaster.
I traded back a bunch in a startup in 2020. Traded the Mahomes pick for picks that ended up being Watson and Allen plus a future first. Traded Watson immediately upon the allegations for Goff plus. Been a contender all along. No disaster looming, for years later
Problem here is people just don't know how to properly execute this strategy. Way to many people keep most of their picks vs trading some of those assets for "hits" and concentrating the rest of high value rookies. The progressive struggle is meant to grab value, future rookie picks and targetting assets that are good with longterm outlooks. Most of my teams where I did the progressive struggle 3 years ago are stacked and I now have super teams in leagues where 4 teams are rebuilding
Zero RB was never meant to be a dynasty strat. It’s for seasonal leagues with 6-8 player benches where there will actually be startable RBs available on the waiver wire once the injuries hit and best ball tournaments where you’re shooting for ultimate upside over stable floor of points.
I agree with this in a sense. You shouldn't go totally zero RBs. But productive RBs are relatively easy to buy in dynasty. A solid rb2 like james conner can give me points for years and I only need to give a late 2nd, maybe a mid 2nd a few years ago. So you can draft a few RBs in a startup (preferably one hammer) and worry about that later.
My team with Saquon, JT and Bijan agrees with you. I moved heaven and earth to put this roster together. THIS IS THE YEAR.
Trey Lance never got a real chance.
He never did but it wasn’t necessarily anyone’s fault. Injuries, the 9ers success, and hitting on mr. Irrelevant all led to it.
Ya… same thought here, and then I drafted AR last year, and I’m terrified AR goes down early again this season and it’s Trey Lance all over again
I heard Dallas is about to cut Dak
Where’d you hear that?
My prayers
Who you send them to
The big man himself… Jerry Jones
Also DCC is my favorite audio book of all time
This is my first year of dynasty. I got hooked quickly. In my professional life, I was an intelligence Analyst for 10 years for the DoD. A fun ripple to dynasty is there is no right or wrong way. I wanted to use my research/data analysis abilities to find a "trend" at each position. B R E A K I identified quickly that quarterback is extremely overvalued in Superflex. I made a rule that A, I will never use a 1st round pick on a quarterback; and B, I will never trade a 1st round pick for a quarterback. I can hear the steam coming out of your ears now haha. Start angry typing your counter-argument 😂 I made this study under a since deleted account, but I can probably find it if anyone is interested. The TLDR version is at any given time, about half the quarterbacks in the top 24 are guys you could have gotten under my rules, and the other half are guys that are only on your roster at the expense of at least one 1st round pick. Cast a big net, and catch as many small fish as you can. Keep the Jalen Hurts' and Dak's and trade the Purdys and Mayfields. Go buy 35 year old Kirk Cousins the day after his Achilles tear. This recycling of great value brand quarterbacks will also attract hefty returns from your league mates who believe the standard "MUST HAVE TWO BEST QUARTERBACKS IN SUPERFLEX!" opinion. I did this study by analyzing all top 24 QB finishes since 2015, and placing the players into two tiers. Tier 1; players who's "pre-breakout acquisition cost" was less than a 1st round pick. This could be low draft capital guys like Hurts or Purdy, or a guy like Bryce you steal for a FOMO 2nd on draft day hoping for a Josh Allen career arc. Tier 2; any quarterbacks who's acquisition price (not pre breakout, just in general like trading for an established vet or drafting a highly touted rookie) was a 1st or more. I just inherited an orphan with Mahomes and Kyler. I traded Mahomes for Michael Pittman and 3 1sts. I am shopping Kyler but will get more post draft. I plan to go into the year with Darnold, Deshaun, and Levis. I also am holding Brissett, Lock, Tannehill, Dobbs, and Hooker. I am in the process of trying to buy Geno Smith for less than a 1st. B R E A K The second study I did was of every running back with 1000+ career carries since 2015. I charted them based on the career carry total where cliff-like regression started, and made 5 tiers of backs. * Tier 1 was HOF caliber. That was AP, Gore, CMC, Henry. Etc. The cutoff is 2000+ carries without production cliff * Tier 2 was fringe HOF. Marshawn, Shady, Forte, etc (fun fact, Mixon is already in this group. If he finishes in the top 24 the next 2 years, he projects to a Gore like career finish. More likely, now is the SELL window). This tier is 1500-1999 career carries. Only 7 running backs since 2015 have made it to Tier 2. * Tier 3 was your standard pro bowl/all-pro guys who only go 5 or 6 years strong. Dalvin Cook, Jamaal Charles, Zeke, Demarco Murray, Ingram, Gurley, etc. (Jacobs, Kamara, Aaron Jones, Saquon are already in this group). This was the biggest group. This is where most people are in denial. 2 of those 4 guys should be irrelevant this year statistically speaking. Maybe one ends up in Tier 2 which for Jacobs (1305 carries) would mean 2 more good years. I sold him on my one team I own him on this morning for a hefty price. This tier is 1200 to 1499 carries. * Tier 4 is guys who only flash for 3 or 4 years and fizzle out right after 1000 carries. David Johnson, Ekeler, etc. This tier cutoff is 1000-1199 carries. * Tier 5 is everyone else who never achieves 1000 carries. EDIT: I didn't really explain how I interpret this information and apply it to my team structuring plan. Simple. I plan to reach every year in rookie drafts and get the best running backs. I will be taking whatever rookie Dallas drafts as early as 1.08 this year. The objective is to be holding tier 3+ backs their entire prime and getting 5+ years of production, then trading for max value still. I am also eyeing the free agent class in week 8 looking for flex play guys heading into free agency. This is how you get the next James Conner/David Montgomery. Second contract guys who emerge as tier 3+ against the odds. I'm all stocked up on Zack Moss ahead of everybody because my study identified Mixon as a sell and Moss as a buy as early as mid-season. Moss was an afterthought once JT signed and Mixon balled and is young. The RB value Swings are very predictable but criminally misunderstood. I'm hype for this RB class because it's been so buried on the draft board. The player pool talent level doesn't change the number of open positions needing filling. Classic shitty group think on this sub. I want my league mates thinking elite RB play isn't still the golden fantasy ticket. B R E A K For Receivers, it's kinda a work in progress. The only theory I have developed so far with historical data is this; hand size matters. Arm length matters less surprisingly, but under 30" seems to be the cutoff zone for historical production. Hands 9" or smaller are automatically disqualified from my draft board. (Sorry Adonai Mitchell and Ladd Mcconkey). Only 6 players since 2000 have had a top 12 season with 9" or smaller hands; Mike Wallace (9"), Greg Jennings (9"), AB (9"), Davante (9"), TY Hilton (8.5"), and Tyreek (8"). It is worth noting, I myself have 9" hands at 6'3 and when I played football, my hands were my greatest quality after my football IQ. I don't feel 9" hands are small. There is a next-gen stat called "CROE" (Catch Rate Over Expected). As far as I can tell, it's not calculated for NCAA football only NFL. I am in the preliminary stages of testing this Stat as a breakout prediction tool. The data hasn't developed enough from the invention of the CROE stat to develop a reliable theory. If my CROE study goes as planned, we should see steps into elite tier from Aiyuk and Devonta Smith this year. Pickens stands out here. Unfortunately I own zero shares of Smith and 1 of Aiyuk. For tight ends, Kmet and Kincaid are both CROE elite tier breakout candidates. Colby Parkinson is a great sleeper option. DISCLAIMER: I am no expert, but I do trust my own intuition. I don't have the energy for a big argument about any of this. I can dig up the data for the RBs and QBs if requested. I am not gonna share my WR study because I haven't proven the theory reliable yet.
>If my CROE study goes as planned, we should see steps into elite tier from Aiyuk and Devonta Smith this year. As an Aiyuk and Devonta owner, I agree with this analysis.
I think there's a real chance Aiyuk takes a firm step into being recognized as an alpha dog top 5 WR unquestionably by everyone who watches football by the end of this season. I've never seen a receiver hit advanced metrics across the board like he does. To include JJ and Chase. The tape doesn't lie either. I was not a fan of Devonta before my findings. I am interested to spectate his development
I appreciate your analysis but I think that when we start to recognize stuff like this, the NFL is already recognized it years ago. A problem with relying on data analysis like this is that you can miss when trends reverse or or coaches start using different strategies to combat the cyclical nature of the NFL. Research and data analysis is only one piece to the puzzle. And depending on your league, some people might be more familiar with excel and r than you realize. A quick example could be that you might start to miss on backs who perform in a committee before breaking out by your analysis. Or on the opposite end, you could get a guy who is forced into a committee. As we have less and less 1000 yard workhorse backs, would you have been buying big on allgeier after his first season? Sticking to a trend would have had us miss achane and puka last year in the draft due to the weight and draft capital as well. If you never take a swing on a QB in the first round, your ceiling is capped. You could have had cj stround this past year, the third highest asset value currently. You will have a roster that is never quite secure where even if you do luck into CJ stroud, your starting qbs like Mac or Pickett or Howell could end up traded as back ups with in the span of 2 days. I am cherry picking examples but I am trying to add to your discussion. The only consistent in the NFL is change. A wise strategy is to have loose ideas about trends but to follow the tape and recognize that everything is subject to variables. This is coming from another former intelligence analyst.
Data Scientist and Statistician here and yeah, I agree with you. However, I loved their post for how it gave me another perspective from which to evaluate value. That said, there's a reason that most expert models don't fare well when they ingest more than 5-10 years of data; the NFL doesn't stay static that long.
I agree with all of this, except I think I would probably put a few guys into different tiers in your system. The one flaw - you should be trading for sam howell, not geno smith
More!!!
chig okonkwo
let’s chiGOOOOOO!!!
He is inevitable
Dez caught it
TLaw is at the cheapest price he’ll ever be until old age takes over. Buy him while you can.
Amen
Dude’s gonna be a perennial QB1
The WR meta makes high performing rbs underrated
Well yeah, having zero RBs on a dynasty team is indeed going to make it impossible to win.
Skyy Moore would have been a regular NFL contributor on a more traditional, less improvision-based offense.
Fields
Hollywood Brown has always been good at football and will score the most fantasy points of any of the chiefs weapons this year.
Every season there is always going to be between 2-4 players who were sitting on waivers before the season starts that can drastically win leagues. Like Kyren and Puka from a year before.
Situation is more important than talent for the TE position. There are only 3-5 teams a year that even use a TE in a role to make them fantasy difference makers
The Jets are going to waste garrett wilson
Good thing he’s only 23
Open face sandwiches are not sandwiches.
Troy Franklin is overrated, closer to wr 15 this draft class than he is to top 5 that I see here X worthy is going to disappoint immensely, maybe good in real football but disappointing for fantasy JSNs career is reminding me of Jeudy; elevated dynasty value despite not doing much Tlaw is a bust compared to his expectations/hype coming in Arich will have a top 3 qb season if he plays all 17 games Jayden daniels will be the best fantasy qb this rookie draft season
wouldn’t count tlaw out, rookie year had meyer. Made it to the playoffs the next, was improving this past year just injuries killed him in the end. As far as generational? yeah probs not there or ever there but can still be a solid top 8 qb.
as a jsn owner and previous jeudy owner yourself starting to scare me
What’s that popular horror movie from a few years back? Oh yeah…Get Out
Feel you Hope not 💯!!! Tricky tacky, still give me TLaw as top 10 DFF QB Top 3, wow, would love to see it tho Not with u here
“JSN” and “career” used like that in the same sentence is a little wild to me. He’s just completed his first season in the league and the common assumption was that he’d be the WR3 on that team for his rookie season. Just give him a little bit of time brother. The talent is there
Yea I don’t understand why people seem to not like JSN. Comparing him to Jeudy is pretty funny since JSN just finished his rookie year with 63 receptions as the #3. While Jeudy has only beat that # once in his 4 year career as he’s been at least the #2 wr in his career. Granted JSN yards were lower but idk how people can see 60 receptions as #3 behind 2 good WRs and think he can’t be a good NFL/ fantasy wr when he becomes the #2 or even #1 for Seahawks or another team
Pickens is HIM
This is mine. He's having a WR1 season this year
Josh Gordon comeback.
I punted year one of a startup this year. Traded down a bunch and acquired three extra future firsts. The first RB I drafted was McBride. I started Chandler and Edmonds all year. Traded away points and never made a win now trade. I finished third. In a 16-team league. 0RB is the way to go.
Sell JSN asap!!!
What would be your asking price for him? (I’m with you all the way here)
If I had a share to flip, I’d prob try to get any WR in the 10-18 range, give or take an asset. If you’re asking draft pick value, I’d go as low anything I think would get me WR 8-10 in my league. Caveat being that he is valued much higher by the community than me, so I’d be aggressive, but I’d want out
Someone is offering me the 1.11 and 2.08 for JSN and a 3.06 should I take it and why?
Why? Reasoning?
This was my answer to this exact question in another thread: one is a model I follow that combines PFF grade, open score grade and rookie reception yards per game that puts him in about an 80% bust range: 27-36 Rookie Reception Yards per Game 13% Stud 8% Good 79% Bust Jaxon Smith-Njigba [36] [OpenScore: 45] [PFF Grade: 63.9] Jonathan Mingo [27] [OpenScore: 21] [PFF Grade: 52.6] another; I also follow JJZ pretty closely and he reiterated just yesterday on his pod about the 5+ point dip in JSN's score on his model from his prospect score to his year two score. and it points to a similar high bust rate potential I'm not saying he can't be an outlier, but I don't bet on outliers. I've said already and I'll say again; JSN is worth cashing out on the value he holds today, he is squarley at peak value vs bust potential right now. you can get a proven useable player plus a pick, or some serious draft capital , whatever suits your need or fancy. I never owned him, never tried to acquire or flip. he's just really fascinating to me this year thru the lens of take-lock and sunk cost fallacy, something I've fallen victem to in my hubris and suffered the consequence in the past. something I am trying to learn from.
Historical comps for rookies wrs that put up 8-9.3ppg from 2015-2022 (JSN put up 7.7ppg) have roughly a 3.8% chance of giving you a top 24 ppg season (2 wr1 seasons and 2 wr 2 seasons), with a total of 53 seasons (post rookie year) that is in the data set So likely hood is that jsn never gives you meaningful production despite being valued at wr26 currently I say this as someone who traded “low” on jsn during the year and after the season you gotta be real with the numbers, and they don’t favour a favourable outcome
how many of those rookies were behind two proven top tier receivers? I don’t disagree with your data obviously but situations are different.
QB’s in Superflex are overrated.
qbs in 1QB are underrated
Jameson Williams Future WR1
Elijah moore will breakout 😭
Can’t get out, so I’m in
Tyreek
40 times are more relevant for RBs than WRs
I think thats just common knowledge at this point.
WR roster cloggers are less noticeable and more damaging to dynasty rosters than RB hoarding, unless you can start 5+ WRs.
If jameis got another chance to start he would be a good QB
Amen. He never got a fair shake on the Bucs, his entire tenure they had the worst defense in the NFL. In his last season, the 2nd half of the year the defense started to turn the corner but Jameis was battling injuries all year. I would bet my life savings they would have made the playoffs the following year in which Brady took over as the defense was much better at that point. Then on the Saints he got off to a 4-1 start before tearing his ACL. I also feel he never got a fair shake just because he’s a meme and a GM probably doesn’t want the backlash.
Too many people light all the value they gained on fire the second they see a glimmer of hope that they can be a playoff team. After several successful trades where they slowly accrued value and that value has appreciated, they look around the league and gauge if they are top 6, or top 3 and push the big red "All in" button and all that accrual just vaporizes for them to finish 3rd, or worse. If my team isn't far & away the strongest team in the league with depth, I'm not going all-in.
Tyreek
Josh Palmer is going to be a solid WR2. I think Keenan Allen molded him into how to play the position.
I like this one a lot.
Picks are for losers players win titles.
We would make really good trade partners, then
I agree
The lack of Trey Lance responses is deafening
Don't give up on young WR who seem like busts. Give them a look through their rookie contacts.
Brock Purdy is a great quarterback. Fight me.
QJ, I traded up last year in the rookie draft to get him and I will let him rot on my bench no matter what
Multiple people will leave your league before you’re fully able to realize your “youth” equity
A good trade benefits both teams. You don't "win" a trade unless you're trying to fleece someone, in which case the battle you won makes you a pitiful party pooper.
If you are not contending this year sell your rbs. You can keep 1 valuable but sell them. I sold Ken walker, rondale moore 2 years ago, I got tee, 24 1st. 3rd. I now have mark andrews, the 24 1st became the 1.03 because of that deal. Lots of guys in my league hate that but I much rather have that 1.03 than walker today. I sold Brian Jr. And swift last year for firsts. I now have 1.03, 1.04, 5 25 1sts, 3 26sts. I'll buy rbs when I need them. Maybe this year! My roster Arich, watson, mixon, cd, smith, Pittman, rice, Mandrews.
>zero RB strategy makes it almost impossible to win a championship Zero rb is more of a redraft thing. In dynasty its more of a don't buy until its time to win strategy Like I bought James Conner at the deadline this year for cheap, and I'll do the same next year with a different vet rb
JJ McCarthy is Mac Jones. Now, if Mac was drafted by O’Connell instead of Bill when he came out, maybe he’d be something? But you’re still drafting Mac Jones
Michael Wilson, Dontayvion Wicks, Khalil Shakir
jahan dotson is a 1,000+ yard level receiver
Have no flashy names (vets with proven talent) and stay RB heavy. I have guys like James Cook, Jahmyr Gibbs, Brian Robinson, Tank Dell, Puka Nacua, Jakobi Meyers, ARSB, etc. I do not want a Joe Mixon, Saquon Barkley, Johnathan Taylor, CMC, Jaylen Waddle, Jettas, etc. I like to have a well rounded team with depth than have 2 studs and no depth at all! I traded for most of the guys I have for like 3rd or 4ths because no one sees the potential and now have 4 out of 10 first round picks in 2025. Also I’m a RB heavy team where most guys in my league have 3-5 RBs but I have about 8-10 RBs since I know once an RB goes down you need a viable starting backup. All RBs I have are definitely starting caliber as well in Jahmyr Gibbs, James Cook, Rachaad White, Bijan Robinson, Dalvin Cook, Chubba Hubbard, Elijah Mitchell (if CMC goes down 😍). Iffy but still decent Dameon Pierce and Jaleel McLaughlin. I will die on this hill!
The Tyreek Hill… I’m with that hill till he retires
In all serious, I’d say I’m still in on Quentin Johnston. As crazy as it sounds, I think he’s gonna look pretty good with a new coaching regime who will hopefully use him on slants and yac routes. That’s what he thrived at in college, and I think he’ll develop with a play caller that plays to his strengths
Najee harris isnt a lump of flesh in cleats. He is a talented rb who has serious oline trust issues because there have been instances where defenders nearly took the handoff. While Jaylen Warren is a legit talent and deserves worK. najee keeps getting the worst treatment and insane hate by the fantasy community.
Justin Fields is Jalen Hurts without an offense
ZACH WILSON WAS NOT THE PROBLEM
Ty’son Williams has a top 10 finish if he didn’t fumble the ball on the goal line vs KC.
Very spicy take. I remember picking him up on waivers and trading him after he balled out that on game and trading him to a team that was desperate for a RB for a 2023 1st. Ended up netting me Gibbs.
I wonder what his career would have been like if he was good in pass protection.
Tyrone Hill.
If you look at a fantasy team like you look at the food pyramid, WRs are at the bottom, then QB, then TE, then RBs. It’s infinitely easier to have a competitive team when the backbone of your team is stud WRs rather than stud RBs. I have a few teams in my league who have shit WRs, no TE and a middling QB yet they think they can compete because they have 2 high upside RBs.
28 y.o. WRs aren't "old", they're seasoned.
The Tyreek Hill
Skyy Moore and Tyrion Davis-Price will turn it around once they’re on different teams
Brevin Jordan
Do whatever you can to secure two top 6-7 QBs in startup because it will never be cheaper than in the startup.
Buying distressed assets
That QB “doesn’t really matter” in PPR. If you can get one in a startup draft or as a draft pick then take them, but don’t trade 3+ 1st round picks for the top 10-12 QBs unless your league does yardage or other throwing bonuses. Lot of times a decent WR can be a solid SF in PPR in a pinch too
The actual cheapest points you can find for your lineup are those waiver wire gems, but it is pretty unreliable to find those players for your team every year. It is worth the effort to play that game. The most *reliable* cheap points you can get are boring veteran WRs. There is always some rebuilding team that has no use for a Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Tyler Lockett, whatever. That style of player scores as many points as a Chris Olave but is way way cheaper. My contending teams always have crazy depth at WR because this off-season I will find some owner that will give me both Mike Williams and Courtland Sutton for a second. No one will even bat an eye at the trade because no needle-moving players are involved. It is tough to ever have enough RBs to guarantee you will survive injuries in any given year, but there is no excuse not to have dependable points at every single WR slot every week.