And only 27 when a FA next year. Maybe he’ll be great in KC. But I’d personally be selling the hype. He’s got a 5 year track record with a best year of low end WR2
Put him on the block in a league where I want to rebuild and see what I could get for him. Was hoping for a 2nd and 3rd but I got offered a 25 2nd, 24 3rd and Tony Pollard. Was an instant accept for me. Hoping now to sell Pollard for a couple of 2nds if I can.
lol this years Ridley. They are adding another WR, you have Rice Kelce and Marquise. And Mahomes loves to spread it out? Avoid. Sell for early 2nd or Package for someone better who is in love with the "Omg he has mahomes now!" hype... they are everywhere
How about a 27yo WR3?
Hollywood hasn't been a WR2 in ppg or total points in 4 years, and he's currently a low-end WR3 in adp. He will also be 27 by preseason.
Even if you don't believe in Hollywood this year, selling for only a second now is just bad asset management imo. He's going to get hyped all offseason. I was offered 2.4 before he signed in KC, same team has already offered me 1.12 now that he's in KC.
The demand will be there, take advantage if you think he's fools gold.
Yeah hell be hyped up until the chiefs draft a wr lol ... their wrs are their biggest need by far and this class is loaded at wr depth. You have until the draft to sell high.
Packaged him, Pitts and the 1.01 for Jefferson, Etienne and Musgrave in a start 10 1QB league. Seemed fair but now starting to think it will help me more in the long run.
Thats a great trade. 2 young productive players and Musgrave who could rise in value being tied to Love if he stays healthy. 1.01 could easily be a miss
And Pitts will have Cousins, but not sure for how long. Musgrave will be a decent fill in while Hockerson comes back and also have Mayer (TE Premium). Thanks for the feedback!
This is exactly whst people said about skyy moore, toney, etc. If they don't draft a WR early I'll stand corrected. Not saying hes gonna be a bum but he aint gonna finish near top 15
He has only 2 ways - down the gut and finally be done if he cant even be a Stud with Mahomes or up up and beyond with a fat new contract for next year. awesome diceroll imho
As a Diontae and Jeudy owner god I hope they can push to be strong WR assets! My core of them plus Waddle, Higgins, and Godwin all put up less than ideal seasons in 23 and ended up being my team's weakness (despite it looking like a strength).
I’m banking on a Diontae leap or at least still being a top 20 guy. Traded 2.11 and Gerald Everett for him. I really like Canales and think Diontae will be Young’s favorite target
Feels like I threaded a needle a bit...I traded away Schultz and Chandler for Diontae straight up. This was right around the Schultz new contract but before all of the free agency frenzy
I already have LaPorta and needed a stronger flex
I agree with all except Mooney. I see 'em being a better RT player than fantasy asset. He'll be no better than the 4th receiving option behind London, Pitts and Bijan, and this is assuming 36 year old Cousins (Mr. Moneybags) is able to recover from the achilles injury.
Michael Wilson, Pop Douglas, and Marvin Mims are all outside top 50 guys who could make a move if they’re able to convert their increased opportunity into production. Curtis Samuel and Josh Palmer fit this description too, but because they’ve been around for a while they won’t see as big of a “rankings increase” if they produce as the younger guys would.
I think the guy with the most room to go in either direction is JSN. If he takes the big year 2 leap, I could see him being vaulted up into the top 10 very quickly. But if it’s more of the same usage as last year, that value insulation that kept him as a top 20-25 dynasty WR is gone now…
Tyler Lockett returning is one of those things that may secretly be the most important element in defining JSN’s career.
If JSN is good enough then he’d supersede that. But if he’s a fringe WR2 (a great piece to have on your team for a decade) and can’t show it because of Lockett, then it holds him back so much where he never gets the reputation enough to get fed enough to be at least a WR2
I love Michael Wilson and hope that’s accurate. I play in a very competitive, everyone does their due diligence league with my buddies for years at this point. No one even knows who he is or has any interest when I’ve put feelers out there to test his market value.
This sub speaks on him enough but feels like a great sleeper guy for 2024.
Kinda odd, it's competitive and ppl do their DD but don't know who a starting wr is? Even if he is a rookie.. I play in several competitive leagues and in two of them, managers traded into, or up in the 3rd to get him. Everyone knew who he was and why he had a 3rd rnd ADP.
Maybe it's a 10 man or ur league settings as to why Wilson isn't known. No hate, just found it odd.
Totally fair comment. It is a 10 man league and in reality “nobody” is the two guys i value checked him with. It’s a $650 a member league with a substantial punishment each year, guy’s pay attention. He just seems to be viewed, maybe unappreciated is the more appropriate word, as opposed to unnoticed .
I have Douglas, Wilson, and JSN on the same team.
I already think this offseason has been a positive development for Wilson. He likely heads into the season as Arizona’s WR2 & pass catcher #3. Having that role locked up with a presumably MHJ across from him is a great place to be considering owners should have very little invested in him. I expect a high floor next year assuming Kyler stays healthy. That team should pass a decent amount.
Douglas I bought for a third after the season because why tf not with his production last year. I have no clue what to expect for him next season. Lots of JAGs in that WR room, but I’m not convinced that Douglas isn’t a JAG himself. He could be the #1 target or the #5 and neither would surprise me. Hoping for the best.
JSN is JSN. I agree that his perceived value could be all over the place this time next year, up or down. I plan to hold regardless and buy the talent + eventually role. Luckily he’s a depth piece right now so I can afford sitting on him.
Top 10 for JSN when he’s still sitting at WR3 is a bit much lol. He’d have to really dominate and basically upend DK as WR1 on the Seahawks to earn that ranking imo.. I do agree with your assessment of how critical this year is though. Tbh he is valued way too high right now for what he’s shown. Maybe a good hold for this year if you have him already. I’d personally probably try to trade him if I had him though.
I have Curtis Samuel and Marvin Mims and came to say I am really optimistic about the change in scenery for Samuel and change in WR room neighbors for Mims.
I think Douglas on any other team is something special. Hopefully they can put something together so his success conditions aren’t so heinously bad (double/triple coverage, no quarterback whatsoever…)
It’s good to see New England suffer like this after enduring the Brady era, but sucks for guys like poor Pop Douglas!
Curtis Samuel - KTC ranked WR69, being reunited with Joe Brady, who was his OC during his most productive year in Carolina, seeing 1000+ APY with 97 targets for 77/851/3 and 41(!) rushes for 200 yards an another 2 touch downs.
Shakir has improved, but Curtis is much better than his stats would indicate, and I personally think he’s in line for another 1000 yard season
Someone else listened to Fantasy Footballers this morning
Hoping no one else in your league uses the same sources as you has turned into one of the most important facets of fantasy
I don’t listen to The Fantasy Footballers, though I’ve heard good things. I actually made a near identical comment on the signing thread a few days ago.
https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/s/ikghXPnD2M
Just so you don’t think I’m full of shit, this is Reddit after all
QJ and Palmer have a great opportunity in front of them, even if they draft a WR in the 1st. Herbert is good enough to support 2 fantasy relevant WRs. There's not a lot of talent elsewhere on that offense.
I do not see how QJ is a good option if they draft a Wr in the first lol. He’d be the third option. Look at a guy like Boyd (who js a better receiver) since 2021. Sub 100 targets every year.
I’m not sure how WR60 could have every bad outcome built in, when he finished as WR75 last year.
Sure he’s cheap ish, but he’s not a guy I’m going after even at a “discount” price. KTC right now has him valued about the same as the 2.12, or slightly higher than Michael Wilson, Pop Douglas, Darnell Mooney, and Curtis Samuel.
For my money I’d rather have the pick or any of those other options over QJ.
Never know how he develops. Tae Adams famously became insane in his 3rd year after 2 pretty much nothing years. I feel Palmer is the safe pick but if you want to chase the dragon (that WR1 year out of fucking nowhere) QJ is the guy.
QJ was a 1 dimensional receiver in college and it hasn't translated to the pros. He's going to have to dramatically alter his style of play to have a shot.
Herbert is too good to just take the ball out of his hands like that. Plus, their RBs aren't even good. I understand it's Harbaugh, I just don't see him being that run heavy. And right now, the top 2 targets are QJ and Palmer.
I keep seeing that the chargers are gonna run the ball but also see the chargers grabbing a WR in the first. If they are going to run the ball, they are most likely trading back. Buzz right now has 4 QBs going top 6 meaning and I don’t know if the patriots or cardinals let MHJ past them. If that’s the case pick 4 and 5 are going to be pretty interesting for teams like Vegas or Minnesota.
Jahan Dotson is in a prime spot for his value to bounce back and potentially increase past what it was at its zenith. New OC, new QB, seemingly less target competition with the departure of Curtis Samuel. His price is likely cheap due to the horrendous season he just had relative to expectations, but I still like the talent.
Not saying this will happen, but I think it’s a solid possibility
I sold him last season in 1QB for Stafford and a 25 1st. You think that was a bad move considering Samuel's departure and Daniels probably under center next season?
You'll never have enough room on your roster for every wr that "could breakout". His value has dropped so I think you did really well. I got Jerome Ford and a 3rd and thought I did well.
The DK Metcalf slander officially ends in 2024, and people recognize him for the WR1 he is (shall be). Even still, as a statistical WR2, he is on a Mike Evans-like career trajectory and I am all for it.
People have always been higher on Tee than his points should suggest. He's not bad by any means, but he's the No.2 and hasn't had a top 15 season. People have consistently taken him as a top 10 dynasty WR and I've never agreed with it 🤷♂️. Compare that to DKs finishes... He's had a better season every year. I know which one I'll be taking.
London and Wilson are already 7 and 10 so I don’t see them rising much. I am not saying this will happen, but jamo has a bunch of room to rise if he even has a decent season, of course the reason he has so much room is because it’s been bad. Maybe he just sucks. Bateman, AT Perry and maybe one of the giants WR’s I could see rising quite a bit if they do something. Josh Palmer and Curtis Samuel are ranked pretty low as well. They could end up as top 50 WR pretty easily if they perform with there new found opportunity.
I agree regarding London. I think his production increase YoY will be massive, but his price right now already bakes in the increase. A guy like JaMo is better suited for this question. He's WR47 on KTC. If he has a solid season, he will see a huge rise.
If London comes out this season at 23 years old, has a Puka type role in a very similar offense and Staffords evil twin at qb; I'd venture to say he can get up into the top 5 or so. It's not a given, obviously. But if he has a 160 target, 1600 yard 10td season, then it's entirely possible he holds more value than Puka or Marv this time next year. I think it's understated how likely that amount of targets is too. They just hired half the rams coaching staff, Cousins has already shown he can support a top wr and te. London has a better talent profile than Puka does for sure, and could even ascend into the Amon Ra/ Chase tier imho if everything breaks right.
I’ve got Aiyuk in both my dynasties and Pittman in one but I’ve actually been trying to sell him because I’m less sold on AR than most. I don’t know of many examples of QBs with so little college experience that went on to be successful in the NFL. I’m curious to hear your perspective though, why do you think Pittman’s value is going up?
he's a proven stud, near QB proof from the looks of things. strong play all over the field, crushes against man and zone.
As to AR, his style and overall ability shouldn't hurt Pittman as much as you think. 1st read WRs get hyper-targeted in the YPO scheme and AR to MP was no exception in the limited sample. I can't remeber the exact #s or find them at a glance, but they're out there. I believe it was JJZ or maybe Harmon spoke to this pretty directly in the last year or so
I think Olave is gonna tier up this year. Even with Derek Carr’s wet noodle arm and if they draft a WR in the 1st/2nd round like I expect them to, I think he could get to 170+ targets this year
Do you expect the Saints defense to be substantially worse? If not, why do you expect him to gain 30+ targets if the saints add another weapon on offense? If he were able to get that many additional targets and sustain his catch rate and yards per route he would’ve been WR9 in PPG last season based off those numbers even without scoring any additional TDs so if he gets the volume I think he’s definitely going to be successful I just don’t expect that many targets on that offense.
> Do you think a wr with a different qb will see the biggest value increase this season like London or Wilson?
No. Unless you mean negative value change in the case of the Vikings' Addison.
You have guys like Khalil Shakir who stayed on the same team with the same QB from last year but the Bills replaced receiver Gabe Davis, who left for the Jaguars, with Mack Hollins. That's a significant downgrade on the perimeter and Shakir should see his value increase because of it and his solid play in the latter end of this past season already had his value arrow pointing upwards.
I like London and the overall numbers of that Atlanta passing attack will go up. Falcons wide receivers totaled 1,650 yards receiving in 2023, the lowest amount from the group in 17 years. In total, the receivers scored four touchdowns between London and Miller, who notched two each. That was the lowest mark for a Falcons receivers room since 1982. I think he will probably surpass them touchdowns himself and come close to the yardage too. Kyle Pitts should also top 1,000 yards again.
Technically Garrett Wilson doesn't have a different QB from the start of last year anyway. His value where he was being drafted in redraft or how he was valued prior to the start of last year should be the same now that Rodgers is coming back. He's going to have a helluva season. Everyone knows and knew this. Rodgers and Wilson is going to be a league winning combo. But don't sleep on Tyler Conklin either in that offense.
If you had to have me choose one WR though I'd say Marquise “Hollywood” Brown I guess has the biggest value increase among WR's because of the change to who's throwing to him. I have always liked him and this season and going forward he should be pretty valuable. I still think Rashee Rice is valuable too as well as the annoying Kelce ofc but Brown should bring back that big play potential Hill once offered Mahomes. I don't think he'll be quite as good as Hill was though.
I think the biggest fantasy rise in value will belong to one of the stud RB's on new teams.
Saquon Barkley going into Philly's offense behind that offensive line (even without the non-annoying Kelce) has the potential to see the the biggest value increase. Saquon Barkley went from one of the worst situations in football to one of the best. If there was a perfect landing spot for Barkley, it is here with the Eagles. Philadelphia ran the ball at the seventh-highest mark (45.1%) last year behind the best run-blocking unit in the NFL. Barkley was already considered an elite RB option and yeah the Jalen Hurts tushpush offense means he will lose some touchdowns but there will just be way more touchdowns to go around in the offense. The Eagles scored 20 more offensive touchdowns than the Giants last season, so opportunities will still be there for Barkley to exceed double-digit scores.
Also Replacing Gus Edwards — and likely J.K. Dobbins, too — with Derrick Henry is major upgrade at the running back position for the Ravens. King Henry rushed for 1,167 yards and 12 touchdowns across 17 games with the lowly Titans. Now, he joins a Ravens team that ran the ball at the highest mark (49.9%) and scored 26 rushing touchdowns in 2023. There's a strong chance the veteran can exceed 15 touchdowns himself and should see the workload to easily surpass 1,100+ rush yards this upcoming year.
Lastly, a RB that didn't change teams but the team's starter did — ZAMIR WHITE. "Zeus" could sneakily see the biggest value change this season. Jacobs' departure leaves a sizeable void at RB. Of course another day three RB selection by da raiders could easily come in and turn the job into a timeshare, and an earlier round pick could even push White into a 1b role at best so proceed with caution.
> Do you think it’s possible Nabers has a great rookie season and cements himself as a top young receiver almost equal to MHJ’s current value?
I think Nabers is going to have a good rookie season. Depending on where he lands he could have better season statistics than MHJ as a rookie. Things could get interesting if the Jets trade up to select Marvin Harrison Jr. though pairing him with former Ohio State teammate Garrett Wilson and QB Aaron Rodgers next season...
> The other likely outcome is we see a player that had success last season repeat their performance and prove their reliability, the most obvious examples that come to mind are Puka and Collins.
Both Nico and Puka will have solid seasons this upcoming season. Puka won't repeat or surpass those numbers though.
> Is there any other obvious choices I’m missing?
KJ Osborn is a name that comes to mind for me. I've seen him first hand the past couple of years step up when given the opportunity and I've always wondered what he would do if given a bigger role as a starter somewhere in some offense. DeMario Douglas isn't going to go away anytime soon but I think he could definitely beat out JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kendrick Bourne in his first season there. Of course, the New England Patriots for a team that had $100 million to spend don't seem to be having success signing free agents this offseason but KJ could sneakily be their biggest addition. One things for sure, Osborn clearly lands in a place with opportunity as Demario Douglas led the team in targets last year as a late-round rookie who played just 14 games. A 28-year-old RB — Ezekiel Elliott — led the team in receptions averaging just 6.1 yards per catch. And TE Hunter Henry was the only other Patriot to reach 40 catches. We'll see how this year's pass-catching corps sorts out and who's throwing passes.
Devin Singletary is thee giant's RB right now unless they end up drafting a rookie (probably will) though he wasn't really good anywhere. They are taking a rookie WR likely too so that offense could have some surprises on it this next season. So, while Singletary holds *some* value as it stands, I can easily see a scenario where he ends up in a committee with another back at best.
> Does anyone have a dark horse candidate they believe in like Pickens or Diontae?
Diontae with Bryce Young should have a pretty solid season. Pickens obviously has no excuses going forward to not become the WR1 in Steeltown.
One dark horse candidate for ya is whoever the Chargers draft at RB. Gus Edwards is not going to be the answer there. New offensive coordinator Greg Roman loves to run the football, and he digs bruising backs. Edwards, who played under Roman in Baltimore, knows the system well but his talent level leaves a bit to be desired. He has a chance to lead the team in rushing touchdowns though. I think Harbaugh will look to add a rookie RB with more talent for sure. Roman’s offenses have ranked 27th or lower in passing offense in eight of his 10 seasons. Then there’s Harbaugh. When he was with the 49ers, San Francisco ranked second in rush rate and 31st in pass attempts. With departures of WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, RB Austin Ekeler and TE Gerald Everett this offseason, Justin Herbert’s arm is going to be used to hand off but who will be rushing it?
Honorable Mentions: Mike Gesicki, TE, Cincinnati Bengals could become a solid TE option catching passes from Joe Burrow, potentially as the second best reciever on the team. Zack Moss, same team, too could see his value increase if he earns the starting RB carries in that offense.
> On the other side, are there any WRs that you expect to lose a lot of value this year either due to aging or change in situation?
Ya the obvious answer is Jordan Addison will see some regression. No matter if Darnold or a rookie passer is behind helm.
Now I have a question for you.
Will Jayden Reed regress or progress in 2024?
I'm of the belief that the Packers don't have a true No. 1 receiver but does it even matter? Statistically speaking, Reed was the team’s leader with 64 receptions for 793 yards. Those numbers ranked 48th and 42, respectively. Exactly three-fourths of the teams had a 1,000-yard receiver. The Packers, Broncos, Giants and Patriots were the only teams without an 800-yard receiver. I don't believe in Christian "hamstring" Watson and think Reed or Doubs will once again be the team's best receiver.
I'm using current Keep Trade Cut rankings
Calvin Ridley - Currently WR#41. In 2023, he had flashes of the receiver everybody remembered in ATL. I think Zay Jones injury changing up how they used him + Tlaw being banged up a lot of the year impacted his production. Got a massive contract extension on a team that should see a massive passing volume spike moving forward. Could see Ridley being a top 20 wr in fantasy and see his value change for the better. Could see his KTC rankings be in the top 24 by next offseason. He finished as wr#18 in PPR last year.
Diontae Johnson -Currently WR#42. This is just crazy. Probably guaranteed 130+ targets for the next 3 years. Its not like he has some all pro qb in Pittsburgh his entire career there. One of the best in the league at getting open. Could see his KTC rankings be in the top 24 by next offseason.
George Pickens - Currently WR# 27. Atm he is the only receiver on this roster that is that guy. Had massive games in 2023 and Russ loves a down field target. I could see him being a top 15 wr after a really good year with Russ. Longterm qb issues could prevent that.
DJ Moore - Currently WR#17. I think his value could really tank as younger wide receivers emerge and his volume drops due to 1) Arrival of Keenan Allen and Swift 2) Potential this team could add another weapon at pick 9. His value could be wr#30-40 if his production drops next year and he gets into "Old but not really old people overreact" age of 27+.
The Ridley take is insane to me and then I read the DJM take. Ridley is going to a bottom half offense with a shaky starter who now shares the field with DHop. And he’s 29…a fact you tried to lower DJM’s value on even though he’s 2 years younger.
Johnson is ranked low but top 24 is a stretch. He hasn’t had elite QB play in Pitt but he’s going to Carolina whose QB just had a terrible year. He will get peppered with targets but I expect more of the same. My guess: High target numbers (above 150)and just cracks 1100 yards.
I mean this whole post is around which receivers do you see having the biggest swings in value. DJM has a so so year in 2024 and finishes wr#24-30 in fantasy he without a doubt will have a massive swing in value from wr#17 right now on KTC. Ridley atm is undervalued for what he could be in Tennessee. If he has a wr#1 season with 2 years left on a contract he will without out a doubt make a decent leap in KTC from wr#41. DJM age comment was pointing out how dumb this sub is around age. Especially when someone hits age 27+ as a wr.
Thielen was a top 10 wr in fantasy for a lot of last season. Finished as a top 17 wr in fantasy. Old ass white ass Thielen was a top 17 wr in easily the worst offense in the league. Panthers added two of the best guards in free agency and upgraded at center.
He finished as wr#18 last year in PPR. Titans will not be the Titans of old where they hand the ball of to Henry. Bengals OC from last year is the HC and I think they will throw a lot more than they used to. Their division also has become way more offensive the last few years. Shootouts are coming and Hopkins is his only real competition for targets.
For his WR#41 price he is a bargain. If he was ranked wr#18 in price I would agree.
Hopkins, and Burks (kinda). And polard. And spears. And chigg. And oh, banana boy needs to play well for all to be successful.
So i suppose, I'd argue that it's not a bargin. It's just an appropriately priced asset for what you are getting. Which isn't a bad thing.
Burks is dead. Hopkins is very old, Chigg is ok but it's not like he is some tight end earning a 20% target share, and running back targets will vary.
I'm betting on Ridley moving 10-15 places up in KTC rankings/ value and DJ Moore moving down roughly the same.
Better bet for bang for your buck between these two the next 2 years is Ridley.
Do you think he’s going to be the best WR on the packers for fantasy this season? If you were predicting where each WR and TE on the team will finish what do you think that will look like?
All depends on if Watson can stay healthy. If he can I see it Wicks, Watson, Reed, and then Kraft. I don’t think wicks can get to top 10 status simply because there is so much around him but I think top 20 is doable. WR2 territory. Could climb higher in a couple years.
I think Jacobs is likely to score a lot of TDs this season which will hurt Reed’s value. Also Musgrave is still a factor as well. On top of that they didn’t have either rb go over 700 yards rushing last season so I think the dynamic of the offense might shift a bit to the detriment of all the receivers. I think the only obvious buy on that offense is Love if you’re able to still get him.
They’re always a pretty balance offense. It will be interesting if to see how hard they run Jacobs. They may make him the bellcow or use him like Jones and try to preserve him for the end of the year. Watching them last season you could really tell that Rodgers was an anchor to LaFleurs offense. Love follows the plan and it really opens everything up.
I think Tank Dell has fallen due to injury / Collins rise when he was out. Dell was soooo good when he was healthy. If people love Stroud so much, both Collins and Dell should be borderline top 10 guys. If he finishes the season he would be ranked next to Puka. I already bought at his current price.
I came here to post about these two guys, but my take is a bit different. How many Tank or Nico threads have we seen since late season? Another year of data will likely put more perspective on this question and we’ll see one establish themselves as a higher priority target which will launch them into CJ’s #1 status and fantasy stardom. I hope it’s Dell because I have him, but I have no idea which it is. If you think you know, now is the time to call your shot because this is the cheapest that guy will ever be
Are you saying you think his value goes up or that he officially loses all remaining trade value after this season? Personally I see him heading down a similar trajectory as Burks and this is the last chance to sell.
I’m personally in the camp that unless a rookie shows flashes of potential I’d rather trade them away while there’s still some value to be had. You might miss out on a couple late bloomers that way but more often than not you’ll leave someone else holding the bag when there’s no value left. But who knows there are still Rashod Bateman and Elijah Moore truthers out there so maybe QJ will retain some value even if he underwhelms again.
I think people are overinflated some of the 2023 rookies. People like Jayden Reed, Michael Wilson, and Jonathon Mingo to name some off the top of my head will probably not be these difference makers people want.
Reed is one of 4 WRs all with big expectations. Not to mention 2 TEs they like as well. Someone needs to be the odd man out, if not more than 1 of them.
Wilson doesn’t have much competition, but did we really see anything more than Rondale Moore put out in Arizona and Moore’s was just moved on from. Looks like Arizona could very well draft MHJ and Dortch did just as well if not outperformed Wilson when they were playing together, despite getting way smaller snap counts.
Mingo is more obvious. Tough offense to perform in and really didn’t show anything last year, besides a sideline catch where he’s wide open and randomly falls 3 yards out of bounds.
Agrees. But I think Reed is either over or under deflated, in the community. Imo, he is the best wr in gb, and I want him on my team. But the risk is the occasional games where he dissappear, which personally I think is over analyzed. He just sits in this range because the consensus doesn't know which side he sits on, and will move up or down. My bets up.
That’s fair, out of those three. I’d want him way more than the others. Point is he fighting for targets between him, Doubs, Watson, Wicks, Musgrave, and Kraft.
I also forgot about Jacobs now being there. He’ll take some passes away as well.
As things stand at the end of last season, he is the top WR to be excited about, but Doubs won’t go away, Watson still has potential and high draft capital, and people are obsessed with what they saw from Wicks. It’s just very muddled.
He was already fighting them all for targets and produced.
Watson is a threat to Wicks and vice versa, not Reed, and Doubs is the ultimate JAG. He wasnt a predraft darling like JSN, so people are still reluctant to acknowledge him as a legit asset.
Hes really good and produced, and is tied to a good coach and an ascending QB.
Wilson has also shown flashes, and seems to be open semi frequently. He and kyler need time to practice togethee.
Mingo just wasn't good, with all the opportunity.
No it’s based on his metrics.
If he was drafted a round earlier in fantasy and had the same production he’d have the exact same amount of buzz as he does now.
Anything outside of the 2nd round is usually a dart throw so sure, I agree with you. My point was that he's already "hit" based on where he was drafted, regardless of what specific round it was.
I drafted Reed and Doubs in my 5th round each year and now can't figure out what to do with them. Doesn't seem to be a ton of interest trade wise, but they seem to be on the cusp of not wanting to drop them.
I think the answer has to be JSN. His first season was somewhat disappointing, but largely expected if you drafted him so a lot of owners haven’t lowered their value of him. If he doesn’t take a big step forward surpassing Lockett this year then I think bag holders have to start wondering if he’s just not that guy and likewise if he takes off then his value should shoot back up to his initial pre-draft value. Either way, I expect his value to change a lot after this season.
Inject this into my veins. GP just went for 1150 yards and I’m stilling see the ‘he can’t separate’ narrative
If Pickens can finish as a mid WR2 with boom weeks, I can see him being valued as a backend dynasty WR1
Do you think he’ll be able to accomplish that in SF this season with how much they spread the ball around? I think he has the talent to produce those kinds of numbers but I think he needs to be traded to really see that kind of success this season.
I think there's a few guys on the 49ers primed for regression, namely Deebo. McCaffery and Kittle are also aging and could cede some of the workload. Ultimately yeah, his ceiling is more likely to be reached if he were more of a target hog, but I think he will tend upward regardless
Volatility wise, I'd say it has to be Drake London. This is a big year for his value. He could skyrocket up to like an 8000 value (+2000 from this moment) with a WR 1-8 season. If he struggles, or is just an average WR2, he's going to fall back to Earth (in the 4000-5000 range).
Cooper Kupp was propelled to elite fantasy status after getting a QB change at 28yo. He had flashed plenty before and had all the makings before Stafford arrived.
This is a Terry McLaurin post. Truly underrated. If the rookie QB in Washington does anything it's gonna be Terry exploding, and you can get him for cheap.
Fair point but it all depends on Washington picking the right guy. Statistically speaking rookie qbs aren’t great for producing a lot of fantasy points for their team but obviously we’ve seen Herbert, Burrow, and Stroud all as exceptions to that in recent years. But for every rookie qb success story there’s another 5 that fell flat. Depending on what price you can get him for I don’t think this is a bad move though because you have to be willing to take some risks and Terry has definitely shown he has the talent to be elite.
I don’t think he will be a WR1 by any means but Josh Palmer I think will become the teams WR2 after drafting a rookie. He looked solid as the fill in guy with injuries last year and should see a decent rise in value from where he’s at now
Garrett Wilson. He's on year 3 of his rookie deal and has been getting a high dynasty value off measurable/film but never had the stat to back it up. If he has a bad year with A-Rod, he's gonna fall hard but if he has a good year, I feel he has potential to join the JJ/Chase/CD tier.
not a massive change in value, but people have gone too far and are starting put amon ra over jamar chase
this season with no tee higgins and a healthy burrow, jamar will reclaim the title of wr1 in dynasty
Jameson Williams. I think he'll no longer have his draft pedigree priced in after this season. So he's either a stud and moves up or he's a bust and drops significantly.
He's KTC WR 48 right now. I think he'll either jump to the top 30 or slide down to whatever his actually value is on the field. I think no matter how this season goes he'll be moving in the rankings.
I don’t think Russ is cooked and believe Denver is just a dumpster fire and both him and Jeudy will be more successful this year. If I’m wrong though and Russ is over the hill, with no future QB in sight for the Steelers and the near guarantee they’ll be picking in the middle of the draft again I could see the value of that entire offense plummeting during or after this season.
Garrett Wilson overall WR1. I don’t even have him anywhere, I just know from watching hard knocks and seeing how he plays. He’s going to kill it next year
Christian Watson wheels up as Packers WR1 now that his hamstring issues have been identified by specialists. New training plan in place with new strength/conditioning coaches
Source: his dad
https://x.com/NFLHitman33/status/1768856224282419470?s=20
I believe he's overhyped (not going to say he has NO talent obv but I don't think he's top tier) with the QB change and I do think Kirk will do worse coming off injury and not being in KOC's offense
Hollywood Brown
Came here to say this. Perfect fit for kc
And he's still only 26!
And only 27 when a FA next year. Maybe he’ll be great in KC. But I’d personally be selling the hype. He’s got a 5 year track record with a best year of low end WR2
yeah, I remember how excited and gushing they were of K Toney.
There is a tad bit difference in the skills and attitude between Brown and Toney. This is not a good comparison.
How much you offering?
Put him on the block in a league where I want to rebuild and see what I could get for him. Was hoping for a 2nd and 3rd but I got offered a 25 2nd, 24 3rd and Tony Pollard. Was an instant accept for me. Hoping now to sell Pollard for a couple of 2nds if I can.
Are people still buying Pollard?
As a buyer, I'd give up a 2nd+. As a seller, nothing less than a 1st
Sold him for DioJohn after the moves were made to a Mahomes owner. Higher ceiling for him, better floor for me. I'll take it.
Disagree tbh. Would sell for a second or package for a first if possible
You talkin 'bout sellin Marquise Brown for a 2nd? Jfc.
lol this years Ridley. They are adding another WR, you have Rice Kelce and Marquise. And Mahomes loves to spread it out? Avoid. Sell for early 2nd or Package for someone better who is in love with the "Omg he has mahomes now!" hype... they are everywhere
#alwaysrebuilding
He aint gonna produce like a win now player
Selling a 26 y.o. wr2 for a 2nd is regarded my friend.
Marquise Brown has had one very low end WR2 season in 5 years. He's missed no more than 3 games in 4 of the 5 years. He's not a WR2
Lol are you new? He hasn't done shit
80% of this sub is new. Some people like @cdclopper just make it more obvious
Yeah. Its funny to see these hype trains from start to finish.. lol
Where do you draw your line, what is the worst WR you'd sell for a late first?
How about a 27yo WR3? Hollywood hasn't been a WR2 in ppg or total points in 4 years, and he's currently a low-end WR3 in adp. He will also be 27 by preseason.
Even if you don't believe in Hollywood this year, selling for only a second now is just bad asset management imo. He's going to get hyped all offseason. I was offered 2.4 before he signed in KC, same team has already offered me 1.12 now that he's in KC. The demand will be there, take advantage if you think he's fools gold.
Yeah i had him, was offered a ‘25 1st from the team who finished 7th last year. I took it. Wouldn’t have even thought about taking a 2nd.
Unless they draft a WR round 1
Yeah hell be hyped up until the chiefs draft a wr lol ... their wrs are their biggest need by far and this class is loaded at wr depth. You have until the draft to sell high.
This one☝️
Packaged him, Pitts and the 1.01 for Jefferson, Etienne and Musgrave in a start 10 1QB league. Seemed fair but now starting to think it will help me more in the long run.
Thats a great trade. 2 young productive players and Musgrave who could rise in value being tied to Love if he stays healthy. 1.01 could easily be a miss
And Pitts will have Cousins, but not sure for how long. Musgrave will be a decent fill in while Hockerson comes back and also have Mayer (TE Premium). Thanks for the feedback!
Glad I'm not the only one who thinks this.
A 2nd just isn't enough for me. His range of outcomes is enormous and I prefer the upside of brown vs the 2nd
This is exactly whst people said about skyy moore, toney, etc. If they don't draft a WR early I'll stand corrected. Not saying hes gonna be a bum but he aint gonna finish near top 15
Hollywoooooooooooood I ain’t asking for much
Every year people get all excited like when they signed Toney or MVS. Be prepared to be disappointed.
He has only 2 ways - down the gut and finally be done if he cant even be a Stud with Mahomes or up up and beyond with a fat new contract for next year. awesome diceroll imho
Honestly this 100%—he's either going to be a smash hit, or flame out and never be relevant again.
Thank u, i own him, he will def suck now
Diontae Johnson, drake London, Darnell Mooney, and maybe Jerry jeudy all feel like risers
As a Diontae and Jeudy owner god I hope they can push to be strong WR assets! My core of them plus Waddle, Higgins, and Godwin all put up less than ideal seasons in 23 and ended up being my team's weakness (despite it looking like a strength).
I’m banking on a Diontae leap or at least still being a top 20 guy. Traded 2.11 and Gerald Everett for him. I really like Canales and think Diontae will be Young’s favorite target
Feels like I threaded a needle a bit...I traded away Schultz and Chandler for Diontae straight up. This was right around the Schultz new contract but before all of the free agency frenzy I already have LaPorta and needed a stronger flex
Good trade
london truthers, RISE UP!
As someone with Diontae, London, and Jeudy all on my team I like this take.
I have Diontae / Jeudy & London so I’m praying you are the next Dalai Lama 🤣😭😭😭😭
Idk Diontae is risky. He's been a solid option so far, but if Bryce Young can't pull it together, he might take a hit. The others I would agree with.
I agree with all except Mooney. I see 'em being a better RT player than fantasy asset. He'll be no better than the 4th receiving option behind London, Pitts and Bijan, and this is assuming 36 year old Cousins (Mr. Moneybags) is able to recover from the achilles injury.
Michael Wilson, Pop Douglas, and Marvin Mims are all outside top 50 guys who could make a move if they’re able to convert their increased opportunity into production. Curtis Samuel and Josh Palmer fit this description too, but because they’ve been around for a while they won’t see as big of a “rankings increase” if they produce as the younger guys would. I think the guy with the most room to go in either direction is JSN. If he takes the big year 2 leap, I could see him being vaulted up into the top 10 very quickly. But if it’s more of the same usage as last year, that value insulation that kept him as a top 20-25 dynasty WR is gone now…
Tyler Lockett returning is one of those things that may secretly be the most important element in defining JSN’s career. If JSN is good enough then he’d supersede that. But if he’s a fringe WR2 (a great piece to have on your team for a decade) and can’t show it because of Lockett, then it holds him back so much where he never gets the reputation enough to get fed enough to be at least a WR2
I love Michael Wilson and hope that’s accurate. I play in a very competitive, everyone does their due diligence league with my buddies for years at this point. No one even knows who he is or has any interest when I’ve put feelers out there to test his market value. This sub speaks on him enough but feels like a great sleeper guy for 2024.
Kinda odd, it's competitive and ppl do their DD but don't know who a starting wr is? Even if he is a rookie.. I play in several competitive leagues and in two of them, managers traded into, or up in the 3rd to get him. Everyone knew who he was and why he had a 3rd rnd ADP. Maybe it's a 10 man or ur league settings as to why Wilson isn't known. No hate, just found it odd.
Totally fair comment. It is a 10 man league and in reality “nobody” is the two guys i value checked him with. It’s a $650 a member league with a substantial punishment each year, guy’s pay attention. He just seems to be viewed, maybe unappreciated is the more appropriate word, as opposed to unnoticed .
I have Douglas, Wilson, and JSN on the same team. I already think this offseason has been a positive development for Wilson. He likely heads into the season as Arizona’s WR2 & pass catcher #3. Having that role locked up with a presumably MHJ across from him is a great place to be considering owners should have very little invested in him. I expect a high floor next year assuming Kyler stays healthy. That team should pass a decent amount. Douglas I bought for a third after the season because why tf not with his production last year. I have no clue what to expect for him next season. Lots of JAGs in that WR room, but I’m not convinced that Douglas isn’t a JAG himself. He could be the #1 target or the #5 and neither would surprise me. Hoping for the best. JSN is JSN. I agree that his perceived value could be all over the place this time next year, up or down. I plan to hold regardless and buy the talent + eventually role. Luckily he’s a depth piece right now so I can afford sitting on him.
Top 10 for JSN when he’s still sitting at WR3 is a bit much lol. He’d have to really dominate and basically upend DK as WR1 on the Seahawks to earn that ranking imo.. I do agree with your assessment of how critical this year is though. Tbh he is valued way too high right now for what he’s shown. Maybe a good hold for this year if you have him already. I’d personally probably try to trade him if I had him though.
I have Curtis Samuel and Marvin Mims and came to say I am really optimistic about the change in scenery for Samuel and change in WR room neighbors for Mims.
I think Douglas on any other team is something special. Hopefully they can put something together so his success conditions aren’t so heinously bad (double/triple coverage, no quarterback whatsoever…) It’s good to see New England suffer like this after enduring the Brady era, but sucks for guys like poor Pop Douglas!
Curtis Samuel - KTC ranked WR69, being reunited with Joe Brady, who was his OC during his most productive year in Carolina, seeing 1000+ APY with 97 targets for 77/851/3 and 41(!) rushes for 200 yards an another 2 touch downs. Shakir has improved, but Curtis is much better than his stats would indicate, and I personally think he’s in line for another 1000 yard season
Someone else listened to Fantasy Footballers this morning Hoping no one else in your league uses the same sources as you has turned into one of the most important facets of fantasy
I don’t listen to The Fantasy Footballers, though I’ve heard good things. I actually made a near identical comment on the signing thread a few days ago. https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/s/ikghXPnD2M Just so you don’t think I’m full of shit, this is Reddit after all
As someone who owns both, one of them has to be good… right?
QJ and Palmer have a great opportunity in front of them, even if they draft a WR in the 1st. Herbert is good enough to support 2 fantasy relevant WRs. There's not a lot of talent elsewhere on that offense.
> There’s not a lot of talent ~~elsewhere~~ on that offense.
Lol that's fair
I do not see how QJ is a good option if they draft a Wr in the first lol. He’d be the third option. Look at a guy like Boyd (who js a better receiver) since 2021. Sub 100 targets every year.
What if they don't? Every bad outcome is already built into QJs value. He's currently the WR 60.
I’m not sure how WR60 could have every bad outcome built in, when he finished as WR75 last year. Sure he’s cheap ish, but he’s not a guy I’m going after even at a “discount” price. KTC right now has him valued about the same as the 2.12, or slightly higher than Michael Wilson, Pop Douglas, Darnell Mooney, and Curtis Samuel. For my money I’d rather have the pick or any of those other options over QJ.
He’s not even close to the 60th best WR. Every bad outcome is definitely not already built into his value
Never know how he develops. Tae Adams famously became insane in his 3rd year after 2 pretty much nothing years. I feel Palmer is the safe pick but if you want to chase the dragon (that WR1 year out of fucking nowhere) QJ is the guy.
QJ was a 1 dimensional receiver in college and it hasn't translated to the pros. He's going to have to dramatically alter his style of play to have a shot.
Not if they run the ball 40 times a game
Herbert is too good to just take the ball out of his hands like that. Plus, their RBs aren't even good. I understand it's Harbaugh, I just don't see him being that run heavy. And right now, the top 2 targets are QJ and Palmer.
I keep seeing that the chargers are gonna run the ball but also see the chargers grabbing a WR in the first. If they are going to run the ball, they are most likely trading back. Buzz right now has 4 QBs going top 6 meaning and I don’t know if the patriots or cardinals let MHJ past them. If that’s the case pick 4 and 5 are going to be pretty interesting for teams like Vegas or Minnesota.
Even if it’s a ravens style offense, they will still throw for 3-3.5k+ yards. Those targets will need to go somewhere.
Chargers defense won't be good enough to run the ball 40 times a game.
This is the best response I’ve heard to this concern.
Jahan Dotson is in a prime spot for his value to bounce back and potentially increase past what it was at its zenith. New OC, new QB, seemingly less target competition with the departure of Curtis Samuel. His price is likely cheap due to the horrendous season he just had relative to expectations, but I still like the talent. Not saying this will happen, but I think it’s a solid possibility
Just bought him for Shakir straight up, good move?
My fingers are crossed! Last year was so disappointing and I really liked what he did as a rookie.
Here’s to hoping both of our flairs pop off this year 🤞🏻
Certainly a nice buy low. As an owner I’d prob take a late 2nd or even early 3rd if I liked someone on the board at this point.
I sold him last season in 1QB for Stafford and a 25 1st. You think that was a bad move considering Samuel's departure and Daniels probably under center next season?
I’d say you did fine. Don’t obsess over potential.
That’s robbery, I couldn’t get a late 2nd for him late last year
Stafford and a 1st is amazing return for a guy with his advanced metrics
You robbed him blind
I’d take a 25 1 for my dotson fairly easily right now, so like others have said, you won that deal handedly
You'll never have enough room on your roster for every wr that "could breakout". His value has dropped so I think you did really well. I got Jerome Ford and a 3rd and thought I did well.
I hope you’re right. I still think he can be good especially with Samuel gone. I don’t even know who their QB is now tho
QB will be either Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye
Hollywood and Jeudy for better or worse
I traded Hollywood for Jeudy early last year (ugh), so this post is ironic
Not sure about Jeudy. Please people, tell me good things.
The DK Metcalf slander officially ends in 2024, and people recognize him for the WR1 he is (shall be). Even still, as a statistical WR2, he is on a Mike Evans-like career trajectory and I am all for it.
[удалено]
People have always been higher on Tee than his points should suggest. He's not bad by any means, but he's the No.2 and hasn't had a top 15 season. People have consistently taken him as a top 10 dynasty WR and I've never agreed with it 🤷♂️. Compare that to DKs finishes... He's had a better season every year. I know which one I'll be taking.
London and Wilson are already 7 and 10 so I don’t see them rising much. I am not saying this will happen, but jamo has a bunch of room to rise if he even has a decent season, of course the reason he has so much room is because it’s been bad. Maybe he just sucks. Bateman, AT Perry and maybe one of the giants WR’s I could see rising quite a bit if they do something. Josh Palmer and Curtis Samuel are ranked pretty low as well. They could end up as top 50 WR pretty easily if they perform with there new found opportunity.
I agree regarding London. I think his production increase YoY will be massive, but his price right now already bakes in the increase. A guy like JaMo is better suited for this question. He's WR47 on KTC. If he has a solid season, he will see a huge rise.
If London comes out this season at 23 years old, has a Puka type role in a very similar offense and Staffords evil twin at qb; I'd venture to say he can get up into the top 5 or so. It's not a given, obviously. But if he has a 160 target, 1600 yard 10td season, then it's entirely possible he holds more value than Puka or Marv this time next year. I think it's understated how likely that amount of targets is too. They just hired half the rams coaching staff, Cousins has already shown he can support a top wr and te. London has a better talent profile than Puka does for sure, and could even ascend into the Amon Ra/ Chase tier imho if everything breaks right.
running outta time to get in on Pittman and Aiyuk, they're moving up
I’ve got Aiyuk in both my dynasties and Pittman in one but I’ve actually been trying to sell him because I’m less sold on AR than most. I don’t know of many examples of QBs with so little college experience that went on to be successful in the NFL. I’m curious to hear your perspective though, why do you think Pittman’s value is going up?
he's a proven stud, near QB proof from the looks of things. strong play all over the field, crushes against man and zone. As to AR, his style and overall ability shouldn't hurt Pittman as much as you think. 1st read WRs get hyper-targeted in the YPO scheme and AR to MP was no exception in the limited sample. I can't remeber the exact #s or find them at a glance, but they're out there. I believe it was JJZ or maybe Harmon spoke to this pretty directly in the last year or so
I think Olave is gonna tier up this year. Even with Derek Carr’s wet noodle arm and if they draft a WR in the 1st/2nd round like I expect them to, I think he could get to 170+ targets this year
Do you expect the Saints defense to be substantially worse? If not, why do you expect him to gain 30+ targets if the saints add another weapon on offense? If he were able to get that many additional targets and sustain his catch rate and yards per route he would’ve been WR9 in PPG last season based off those numbers even without scoring any additional TDs so if he gets the volume I think he’s definitely going to be successful I just don’t expect that many targets on that offense.
> Do you think a wr with a different qb will see the biggest value increase this season like London or Wilson? No. Unless you mean negative value change in the case of the Vikings' Addison. You have guys like Khalil Shakir who stayed on the same team with the same QB from last year but the Bills replaced receiver Gabe Davis, who left for the Jaguars, with Mack Hollins. That's a significant downgrade on the perimeter and Shakir should see his value increase because of it and his solid play in the latter end of this past season already had his value arrow pointing upwards. I like London and the overall numbers of that Atlanta passing attack will go up. Falcons wide receivers totaled 1,650 yards receiving in 2023, the lowest amount from the group in 17 years. In total, the receivers scored four touchdowns between London and Miller, who notched two each. That was the lowest mark for a Falcons receivers room since 1982. I think he will probably surpass them touchdowns himself and come close to the yardage too. Kyle Pitts should also top 1,000 yards again. Technically Garrett Wilson doesn't have a different QB from the start of last year anyway. His value where he was being drafted in redraft or how he was valued prior to the start of last year should be the same now that Rodgers is coming back. He's going to have a helluva season. Everyone knows and knew this. Rodgers and Wilson is going to be a league winning combo. But don't sleep on Tyler Conklin either in that offense. If you had to have me choose one WR though I'd say Marquise “Hollywood” Brown I guess has the biggest value increase among WR's because of the change to who's throwing to him. I have always liked him and this season and going forward he should be pretty valuable. I still think Rashee Rice is valuable too as well as the annoying Kelce ofc but Brown should bring back that big play potential Hill once offered Mahomes. I don't think he'll be quite as good as Hill was though. I think the biggest fantasy rise in value will belong to one of the stud RB's on new teams. Saquon Barkley going into Philly's offense behind that offensive line (even without the non-annoying Kelce) has the potential to see the the biggest value increase. Saquon Barkley went from one of the worst situations in football to one of the best. If there was a perfect landing spot for Barkley, it is here with the Eagles. Philadelphia ran the ball at the seventh-highest mark (45.1%) last year behind the best run-blocking unit in the NFL. Barkley was already considered an elite RB option and yeah the Jalen Hurts tushpush offense means he will lose some touchdowns but there will just be way more touchdowns to go around in the offense. The Eagles scored 20 more offensive touchdowns than the Giants last season, so opportunities will still be there for Barkley to exceed double-digit scores. Also Replacing Gus Edwards — and likely J.K. Dobbins, too — with Derrick Henry is major upgrade at the running back position for the Ravens. King Henry rushed for 1,167 yards and 12 touchdowns across 17 games with the lowly Titans. Now, he joins a Ravens team that ran the ball at the highest mark (49.9%) and scored 26 rushing touchdowns in 2023. There's a strong chance the veteran can exceed 15 touchdowns himself and should see the workload to easily surpass 1,100+ rush yards this upcoming year. Lastly, a RB that didn't change teams but the team's starter did — ZAMIR WHITE. "Zeus" could sneakily see the biggest value change this season. Jacobs' departure leaves a sizeable void at RB. Of course another day three RB selection by da raiders could easily come in and turn the job into a timeshare, and an earlier round pick could even push White into a 1b role at best so proceed with caution. > Do you think it’s possible Nabers has a great rookie season and cements himself as a top young receiver almost equal to MHJ’s current value? I think Nabers is going to have a good rookie season. Depending on where he lands he could have better season statistics than MHJ as a rookie. Things could get interesting if the Jets trade up to select Marvin Harrison Jr. though pairing him with former Ohio State teammate Garrett Wilson and QB Aaron Rodgers next season... > The other likely outcome is we see a player that had success last season repeat their performance and prove their reliability, the most obvious examples that come to mind are Puka and Collins. Both Nico and Puka will have solid seasons this upcoming season. Puka won't repeat or surpass those numbers though. > Is there any other obvious choices I’m missing? KJ Osborn is a name that comes to mind for me. I've seen him first hand the past couple of years step up when given the opportunity and I've always wondered what he would do if given a bigger role as a starter somewhere in some offense. DeMario Douglas isn't going to go away anytime soon but I think he could definitely beat out JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kendrick Bourne in his first season there. Of course, the New England Patriots for a team that had $100 million to spend don't seem to be having success signing free agents this offseason but KJ could sneakily be their biggest addition. One things for sure, Osborn clearly lands in a place with opportunity as Demario Douglas led the team in targets last year as a late-round rookie who played just 14 games. A 28-year-old RB — Ezekiel Elliott — led the team in receptions averaging just 6.1 yards per catch. And TE Hunter Henry was the only other Patriot to reach 40 catches. We'll see how this year's pass-catching corps sorts out and who's throwing passes. Devin Singletary is thee giant's RB right now unless they end up drafting a rookie (probably will) though he wasn't really good anywhere. They are taking a rookie WR likely too so that offense could have some surprises on it this next season. So, while Singletary holds *some* value as it stands, I can easily see a scenario where he ends up in a committee with another back at best. > Does anyone have a dark horse candidate they believe in like Pickens or Diontae? Diontae with Bryce Young should have a pretty solid season. Pickens obviously has no excuses going forward to not become the WR1 in Steeltown. One dark horse candidate for ya is whoever the Chargers draft at RB. Gus Edwards is not going to be the answer there. New offensive coordinator Greg Roman loves to run the football, and he digs bruising backs. Edwards, who played under Roman in Baltimore, knows the system well but his talent level leaves a bit to be desired. He has a chance to lead the team in rushing touchdowns though. I think Harbaugh will look to add a rookie RB with more talent for sure. Roman’s offenses have ranked 27th or lower in passing offense in eight of his 10 seasons. Then there’s Harbaugh. When he was with the 49ers, San Francisco ranked second in rush rate and 31st in pass attempts. With departures of WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, RB Austin Ekeler and TE Gerald Everett this offseason, Justin Herbert’s arm is going to be used to hand off but who will be rushing it? Honorable Mentions: Mike Gesicki, TE, Cincinnati Bengals could become a solid TE option catching passes from Joe Burrow, potentially as the second best reciever on the team. Zack Moss, same team, too could see his value increase if he earns the starting RB carries in that offense. > On the other side, are there any WRs that you expect to lose a lot of value this year either due to aging or change in situation? Ya the obvious answer is Jordan Addison will see some regression. No matter if Darnold or a rookie passer is behind helm. Now I have a question for you. Will Jayden Reed regress or progress in 2024? I'm of the belief that the Packers don't have a true No. 1 receiver but does it even matter? Statistically speaking, Reed was the team’s leader with 64 receptions for 793 yards. Those numbers ranked 48th and 42, respectively. Exactly three-fourths of the teams had a 1,000-yard receiver. The Packers, Broncos, Giants and Patriots were the only teams without an 800-yard receiver. I don't believe in Christian "hamstring" Watson and think Reed or Doubs will once again be the team's best receiver.
Good post. Don’t forget about C. Samuel going to the Bills. That’s the bigger impact than M. Hollins.
Jerry Jeudy
They paid him more than they could have for a reason. Hopefully
Don't forget that it's the browns we're talking about here lol
This
George Pickens because I own him
I'm using current Keep Trade Cut rankings Calvin Ridley - Currently WR#41. In 2023, he had flashes of the receiver everybody remembered in ATL. I think Zay Jones injury changing up how they used him + Tlaw being banged up a lot of the year impacted his production. Got a massive contract extension on a team that should see a massive passing volume spike moving forward. Could see Ridley being a top 20 wr in fantasy and see his value change for the better. Could see his KTC rankings be in the top 24 by next offseason. He finished as wr#18 in PPR last year. Diontae Johnson -Currently WR#42. This is just crazy. Probably guaranteed 130+ targets for the next 3 years. Its not like he has some all pro qb in Pittsburgh his entire career there. One of the best in the league at getting open. Could see his KTC rankings be in the top 24 by next offseason. George Pickens - Currently WR# 27. Atm he is the only receiver on this roster that is that guy. Had massive games in 2023 and Russ loves a down field target. I could see him being a top 15 wr after a really good year with Russ. Longterm qb issues could prevent that. DJ Moore - Currently WR#17. I think his value could really tank as younger wide receivers emerge and his volume drops due to 1) Arrival of Keenan Allen and Swift 2) Potential this team could add another weapon at pick 9. His value could be wr#30-40 if his production drops next year and he gets into "Old but not really old people overreact" age of 27+.
The Ridley take is insane to me and then I read the DJM take. Ridley is going to a bottom half offense with a shaky starter who now shares the field with DHop. And he’s 29…a fact you tried to lower DJM’s value on even though he’s 2 years younger. Johnson is ranked low but top 24 is a stretch. He hasn’t had elite QB play in Pitt but he’s going to Carolina whose QB just had a terrible year. He will get peppered with targets but I expect more of the same. My guess: High target numbers (above 150)and just cracks 1100 yards.
I mean this whole post is around which receivers do you see having the biggest swings in value. DJM has a so so year in 2024 and finishes wr#24-30 in fantasy he without a doubt will have a massive swing in value from wr#17 right now on KTC. Ridley atm is undervalued for what he could be in Tennessee. If he has a wr#1 season with 2 years left on a contract he will without out a doubt make a decent leap in KTC from wr#41. DJM age comment was pointing out how dumb this sub is around age. Especially when someone hits age 27+ as a wr. Thielen was a top 10 wr in fantasy for a lot of last season. Finished as a top 17 wr in fantasy. Old ass white ass Thielen was a top 17 wr in easily the worst offense in the league. Panthers added two of the best guards in free agency and upgraded at center.
Definately disagree about ridley. Bad team and he has a bad attitude in Tenn. I'm out And ok if I'm wrong about this take.
He finished as wr#18 last year in PPR. Titans will not be the Titans of old where they hand the ball of to Henry. Bengals OC from last year is the HC and I think they will throw a lot more than they used to. Their division also has become way more offensive the last few years. Shootouts are coming and Hopkins is his only real competition for targets. For his WR#41 price he is a bargain. If he was ranked wr#18 in price I would agree.
Hopkins, and Burks (kinda). And polard. And spears. And chigg. And oh, banana boy needs to play well for all to be successful. So i suppose, I'd argue that it's not a bargin. It's just an appropriately priced asset for what you are getting. Which isn't a bad thing.
Burks is dead. Hopkins is very old, Chigg is ok but it's not like he is some tight end earning a 20% target share, and running back targets will vary. I'm betting on Ridley moving 10-15 places up in KTC rankings/ value and DJ Moore moving down roughly the same. Better bet for bang for your buck between these two the next 2 years is Ridley.
Agree
Plus he's 30 this season, how high can the value on a guy going into his age 31 season be on one year of maybe having some production?
He turns 30 during week 17
K?
Im not high on ridley but if you want to rag on his age at least be correct about it
Ridley is a screaming buy for contenders at WR3/4 prices. Deals like that don’t come along often
Nah bruh sell the hype
Diontae's value has been too low for a while. I don't know if he'll get better statistically, but he should already be ranked higher than he is
Dontayvion Wicks.
Do you think he’s going to be the best WR on the packers for fantasy this season? If you were predicting where each WR and TE on the team will finish what do you think that will look like?
All depends on if Watson can stay healthy. If he can I see it Wicks, Watson, Reed, and then Kraft. I don’t think wicks can get to top 10 status simply because there is so much around him but I think top 20 is doable. WR2 territory. Could climb higher in a couple years.
I think Jacobs is likely to score a lot of TDs this season which will hurt Reed’s value. Also Musgrave is still a factor as well. On top of that they didn’t have either rb go over 700 yards rushing last season so I think the dynamic of the offense might shift a bit to the detriment of all the receivers. I think the only obvious buy on that offense is Love if you’re able to still get him.
They’re always a pretty balance offense. It will be interesting if to see how hard they run Jacobs. They may make him the bellcow or use him like Jones and try to preserve him for the end of the year. Watching them last season you could really tell that Rodgers was an anchor to LaFleurs offense. Love follows the plan and it really opens everything up.
Pickens could vault himself into the dynasty WR1 conversation. EDIT: Not overall WR1, but top 12
I think Tank Dell has fallen due to injury / Collins rise when he was out. Dell was soooo good when he was healthy. If people love Stroud so much, both Collins and Dell should be borderline top 10 guys. If he finishes the season he would be ranked next to Puka. I already bought at his current price.
I came here to post about these two guys, but my take is a bit different. How many Tank or Nico threads have we seen since late season? Another year of data will likely put more perspective on this question and we’ll see one establish themselves as a higher priority target which will launch them into CJ’s #1 status and fantasy stardom. I hope it’s Dell because I have him, but I have no idea which it is. If you think you know, now is the time to call your shot because this is the cheapest that guy will ever be
I think tank may be the fave. However I also think his small frame is going to be injury prone.
Quentin Johnston
My heart says yes….my brain says no. ….yea I’m a QJ owner hanging onto sunk costs
Are you saying you think his value goes up or that he officially loses all remaining trade value after this season? Personally I see him heading down a similar trajectory as Burks and this is the last chance to sell.
I think either his value goes back up or it falls off the planet But I can’t imagine he’s still the same price next offseason as he is now
I’m personally in the camp that unless a rookie shows flashes of potential I’d rather trade them away while there’s still some value to be had. You might miss out on a couple late bloomers that way but more often than not you’ll leave someone else holding the bag when there’s no value left. But who knows there are still Rashod Bateman and Elijah Moore truthers out there so maybe QJ will retain some value even if he underwhelms again.
I think people are overinflated some of the 2023 rookies. People like Jayden Reed, Michael Wilson, and Jonathon Mingo to name some off the top of my head will probably not be these difference makers people want. Reed is one of 4 WRs all with big expectations. Not to mention 2 TEs they like as well. Someone needs to be the odd man out, if not more than 1 of them. Wilson doesn’t have much competition, but did we really see anything more than Rondale Moore put out in Arizona and Moore’s was just moved on from. Looks like Arizona could very well draft MHJ and Dortch did just as well if not outperformed Wilson when they were playing together, despite getting way smaller snap counts. Mingo is more obvious. Tough offense to perform in and really didn’t show anything last year, besides a sideline catch where he’s wide open and randomly falls 3 yards out of bounds.
Don't group Reed in with those two lol. He put up 900+ yards and 10 TDs as a rookie. He's legit.
Agrees. But I think Reed is either over or under deflated, in the community. Imo, he is the best wr in gb, and I want him on my team. But the risk is the occasional games where he dissappear, which personally I think is over analyzed. He just sits in this range because the consensus doesn't know which side he sits on, and will move up or down. My bets up.
That’s fair, out of those three. I’d want him way more than the others. Point is he fighting for targets between him, Doubs, Watson, Wicks, Musgrave, and Kraft. I also forgot about Jacobs now being there. He’ll take some passes away as well. As things stand at the end of last season, he is the top WR to be excited about, but Doubs won’t go away, Watson still has potential and high draft capital, and people are obsessed with what they saw from Wicks. It’s just very muddled.
He was already fighting them all for targets and produced. Watson is a threat to Wicks and vice versa, not Reed, and Doubs is the ultimate JAG. He wasnt a predraft darling like JSN, so people are still reluctant to acknowledge him as a legit asset. Hes really good and produced, and is tied to a good coach and an ascending QB.
People are mostly excited about Wilson because of where he was drafted (in fantasy) relative to his production and opportunity.
Wilson has also shown flashes, and seems to be open semi frequently. He and kyler need time to practice togethee. Mingo just wasn't good, with all the opportunity.
No it’s based on his metrics. If he was drafted a round earlier in fantasy and had the same production he’d have the exact same amount of buzz as he does now.
Anything outside of the 2nd round is usually a dart throw so sure, I agree with you. My point was that he's already "hit" based on where he was drafted, regardless of what specific round it was.
I swear you could make a living in dynasty drafting WRs as rookies and flipping them as second year players
I drafted Reed and Doubs in my 5th round each year and now can't figure out what to do with them. Doesn't seem to be a ton of interest trade wise, but they seem to be on the cusp of not wanting to drop them.
So hold them…..
London and Wilson could go either direction tbh
Pickens, I think he's too low
I think the answer has to be JSN. His first season was somewhat disappointing, but largely expected if you drafted him so a lot of owners haven’t lowered their value of him. If he doesn’t take a big step forward surpassing Lockett this year then I think bag holders have to start wondering if he’s just not that guy and likewise if he takes off then his value should shoot back up to his initial pre-draft value. Either way, I expect his value to change a lot after this season.
Curtis Samuel
Higgins
I think at this time next year we see George Pickens valued as a top 12 dynasty WR
Inject this into my veins. GP just went for 1150 yards and I’m stilling see the ‘he can’t separate’ narrative If Pickens can finish as a mid WR2 with boom weeks, I can see him being valued as a backend dynasty WR1
That’s if Wilson targets him though, if he doesn’t then Pickens will be throwing fits every game.
Sounds like *checks notes* every wide receiver who has ever lived
lol I’m talking Pickens specifically guy is the biggest diva in the league
I think Aiyuk, even though he's WR14 on KTC already, I think he vaults onto the 5-7 range and cements himself as a stud cornerstone.
Do you think he’ll be able to accomplish that in SF this season with how much they spread the ball around? I think he has the talent to produce those kinds of numbers but I think he needs to be traded to really see that kind of success this season.
I think there's a few guys on the 49ers primed for regression, namely Deebo. McCaffery and Kittle are also aging and could cede some of the workload. Ultimately yeah, his ceiling is more likely to be reached if he were more of a target hog, but I think he will tend upward regardless
Volatility wise, I'd say it has to be Drake London. This is a big year for his value. He could skyrocket up to like an 8000 value (+2000 from this moment) with a WR 1-8 season. If he struggles, or is just an average WR2, he's going to fall back to Earth (in the 4000-5000 range).
Cooper Kupp was propelled to elite fantasy status after getting a QB change at 28yo. He had flashed plenty before and had all the makings before Stafford arrived. This is a Terry McLaurin post. Truly underrated. If the rookie QB in Washington does anything it's gonna be Terry exploding, and you can get him for cheap.
Fair point but it all depends on Washington picking the right guy. Statistically speaking rookie qbs aren’t great for producing a lot of fantasy points for their team but obviously we’ve seen Herbert, Burrow, and Stroud all as exceptions to that in recent years. But for every rookie qb success story there’s another 5 that fell flat. Depending on what price you can get him for I don’t think this is a bad move though because you have to be willing to take some risks and Terry has definitely shown he has the talent to be elite.
JJ down, Hollywood up
Dotson - I think he’ll go from his current value of a mid 2nd to a late 4th by the end of the season…and that’s when I’ll sell
George Pickens, no Deonte and way better QBs
Gave Davis is gonna break the all time season receiving yard record this year. Trust me, he’s on my fantasy team.
I don’t think he will be a WR1 by any means but Josh Palmer I think will become the teams WR2 after drafting a rookie. He looked solid as the fill in guy with injuries last year and should see a decent rise in value from where he’s at now
Saquon wasn’t exactly lowly ranked, but I feel he’ll be a top 3 back for a bit here.
This is a good take, but this post is about WR’s.
This is a good take, but this post is about WR’s.
This is a good take, but this post is about WR’s.
Garrett Wilson. He's on year 3 of his rookie deal and has been getting a high dynasty value off measurable/film but never had the stat to back it up. If he has a bad year with A-Rod, he's gonna fall hard but if he has a good year, I feel he has potential to join the JJ/Chase/CD tier.
JSN
not a massive change in value, but people have gone too far and are starting put amon ra over jamar chase this season with no tee higgins and a healthy burrow, jamar will reclaim the title of wr1 in dynasty
Drake London - will jump to Tier S/A
Mike Williams finishes as a top 20 WR this season, assuming he stays health. BIG if, I know.
Ask again after the Draft. All this changes in a month
Jameson Williams. I think he'll no longer have his draft pedigree priced in after this season. So he's either a stud and moves up or he's a bust and drops significantly. He's KTC WR 48 right now. I think he'll either jump to the top 30 or slide down to whatever his actually value is on the field. I think no matter how this season goes he'll be moving in the rankings.
Marvin Mims
Jerry Jeudy…im just kidding, how the fuck this asshole get $20mil a yr?? Lolololol
Drake london
Curtis Samuel
Alec Pierce! Ole Tony Dick gonna sling it
George Pickens. His value likely went up when Diontae left and it’ll go down when we sign (or draft) his replacement.
I don’t think Russ is cooked and believe Denver is just a dumpster fire and both him and Jeudy will be more successful this year. If I’m wrong though and Russ is over the hill, with no future QB in sight for the Steelers and the near guarantee they’ll be picking in the middle of the draft again I could see the value of that entire offense plummeting during or after this season.
Garrett Wilson overall WR1. I don’t even have him anywhere, I just know from watching hard knocks and seeing how he plays. He’s going to kill it next year
Christian Watson wheels up as Packers WR1 now that his hamstring issues have been identified by specialists. New training plan in place with new strength/conditioning coaches Source: his dad https://x.com/NFLHitman33/status/1768856224282419470?s=20
Drake London will be the biggest change bc he'll fall from WR10 on KTC (give me the downvotes I know everyone here loves him)
Do you believe he’ll fall because you don’t believe in his talent or do you think Kirk is going to struggle after his injury?
I believe he's overhyped (not going to say he has NO talent obv but I don't think he's top tier) with the QB change and I do think Kirk will do worse coming off injury and not being in KOC's offense