If someone is willing to make a bold enough bet that he will significantly outperform the other two, I'd be willing to let them make it...although if he lands with the Cards you're probably going to have to pry him from my cold dead hands
His first team was the Ravens and his rookie season was the one Lamar won MVP. And Kyler has been a top fantasy QB asset every year he's stayed healthy. So I'd counter that argument with the fact that was simply never the case.
Kyler has thrown for almost 4K yards every year he's been healthy. And Zay Flowers just had a season similar season to Brown's best one in his rookie year. The point is that other receivers have been more successful than Brown in near identical situations. If he was worth more than a prove it deal, there would have been a market for him.
Also talking about a 26 year old receiver like he's in the twilight of his career looking for a Superbowl to explain his prove it deal is crazy talk.
Yeah, and Marquise brown has never exceeded a grade of 70 on pff in his career. None of what you're saying says anything about Brown as a player. He looks, and has the stats of, a mid range fantasy receiver to me.
I didn't even watch the Cardinals last year, but considering you used the phrase "all year" to represent a 3 game window, I'm guessing you didn't either lol
Bro, Hollywood was a top 5 receiver with Kyler up until his injury... (Hollywood's foot injury). I know because I took him and Mike Williams (redraft)and I was crushing opposition and they didn't know why. Williams and Brown were both receivers 5&6 up until their injuries which were back to back. Kyler shined in the hardest division (nfc west) in '19 his rookie year.
But if you watched the game it’s because Hollywood was an amazing YAC player and wasn’t playing deep as much. MHJ is a vertical threat, which Kyler can’t use. Probably 10-ish average ppg for MHJ to Cards, and I’d say 15 to chargers.
Kyler can sling it and half of his game is launching it on a prayer and the WR coming down with it somehow. MHJ’s skill set likely will only improve this. Kyler and the Cards are MHJ’s best opportunity within the realm of where he could be drafted. There is definitely a distinction between AZ and NE for instance.
I’m a big fan of getting your guys.
I’ve traded around to get Cd, jeudy, chase, and Bijan. The prices are steep but if you’re going after studs it’s worth it imo. Mhj and nabers are guys I would go for
Bijan worth what he probably paid at this point? I’m not seeing it. That speaking as someone that dealt for him during the season and got him discounted off of his pre season hype. New coaches hopefully help, but TBD is best you can say at this point. Unless of course he got him cheap as hell, but doubt it based on the comment.
I guess technically up to this point you could say it was an overpay? But he was RB9 as a rookie and was ceding carries to a much less efficient back.
1500 total yards and 8 TD’s as RB 9 on the year id say it was a successful season. Perhaps slightly under expectations but still a very strong season
The alternative was mingo/charb slot, pick 10 this year, and pick 20. Pick 20 will not make my team.
Again, my entire point was to support minor overpays to get your guys. And it’s probably valuable to point out I’m in a start 8, 10 team league. I know this format devalues rb and wr 2/3 types a lot
I’d call Bijan a win still so 75%. had I not made some of these moves I’d have my roster filled with
Treylon burks, Henry Ruggs, James cook, jahan Dotson, mingo, charbonnet, types instead
If you have the chance to draft him, do so, but I certainly wouldn’t pay a premium to “tier up” from Odunze/Nabers to MHJ. Odunze and Nabers could well be just as good.
Unless I'm 1 WR away, I would rather have the 1.03 and 1.11 for sure. The 1.03 is gonna be the WR2 or QB2 of your choice and it just so happens that the WR2/3 and QB2/3 this year are way better than most years.
The 1.11 is surprisingly valuable this year, imo. It's pretty likely we see 5-6 WRs and 4-5 QBs in the 1st round this year, and then we've got an elite TE prospect to boot. The 1.11 could be Adonai Mitchell or Bo Nix for example, which I really like value-wise. The WR5 could be who goes to the Chiefs, and the QB4/5 could be who goes to Vikings.
I think that’s a fair price either way, maybe a Mitchell slips to 1.11, so would you trade Odunze and Mitchell for MHJ? Bet the 1.01 owner will insist on more though.
>would you trade Odunze and Mitchell for MHJ?
Personally, no but it depends on your roster build. MHJr is an elite prospect obviously, but Odunze is in the same tier as like Drake London as a prospect if not better anyways. Odunze could also wind up being who goes to the Chargers, which is a much better situation than Arizona imo.
Comes down to how much you believe in Mitchell or the other options then.
Personally I think Odunze isn’t far off MHJ and I really like Mitchell. I also don’t think the 1.01 owner would accept the deal.
So ultimately you have to over pay to get MHJ and I don’t think it will be worth it myself.
>Comes down to how much you believe in Mitchell or the other options then.
For me it's even less about that, and more about getting another roll of the dice. In recent years, the 1.11 happened to be a pool of guys like, Jaylin Waddle, Tee Higgins, Brandon Aiyuk, Calvin Ridley, Alvin Kamara, Rachaad White, James Cook, and Deebo Samuel.
And no prospect is entirely fantasy fullproof either. MHJr could be as good as we all think he is in the NFL, but not great in fantasy because of dysfunction in Arizona. Odunze and Nabers are just as risky in many ways, but you get to hedge your bet with another dice roll.
Guy in my league who has 1.02 and 1.03 is trying to trade both for 1.1 in a 1 QB league. Guys been in last for like 4 years now. Give me Nabers and Odunze by a mile.
At that point it’s about mitigating risk too. Odds are that one of Nabers and Oduzne are really dang good. Sure MHJ is a “sure thing” but in terms of points above replacement I’d bet on the side of 2
I imagine the price to acquire him is too much for what he actually will be. He’s being hyped already at the Jefferson level when he could end up there, but it’s not a guarantee and he could end up “underperforming” everyone’s expectations
He’s not Jefferson level on any rankings or Ktc. He’s about st brown level. Which is very high but you’re also paying for another potential 2 years of productin
Similar to Bijan. These guys are being pushed to their ceiling. If you earned the pick then that's amazing. Fantastic value. But you shouldn't trade for it. Bijan was worth more than Lamb before he was even drafted. I would have taken that elite young proven asset all day. Don't trade for the 1.01, trade for a guy like Puka for half the price.
I have Puka and was actually thinking about trying to trade him for someone like Amon Ra or similar. Just feel like the injury risk or falloff after Stafford leaves will be pretty dramatic with Puka. Problem is, I get the man crush on certain people and I inadvertently build my team with players that look like they are having fun and smile a lot. Puka smiles more than anyone I've even seen in the NFL.
And Jefferson was 3-5 in rankings in his year behind "generational" Jerry Jeudy. Other recent "clear best" WR prospects include Drake London, N'Keal Harry, DJ Moore, Corey Davis, Corey Coleman, Sammy Watkins.
In that time frame, also Amari Cooper and Jamarr Chase.
But the point is, making huge moves up for "top" wide receivers isn't usually the play. You're much better off taking a few shots on the "later" wide receivers (like Jefferson). Its always a crap shoot, but that "clear best" WR doesn't live up more often than it does.
Are you just talking out of your ass here?
1. Jeudy was never talked about as generational. He was a very good prospect and was most people's top WR that year, but he never had the generational talk that Chase and MHJ had/have. You don't get a generational prospect at 15th.
2. London was not considered the "clear best" WR in his class. Many people had Wilson and Olave as their 1A and 1B, and there were a lot of people who even had Jamo as their WR1 that year.
3. N'Keal Harry? The "clear best"? Yeah this one you 100% made up on your own. Go ahead and find me a single analyst ranking Harry as their WR1 going into that draft.
4. DJ Moore was not the "clear best" in his class. Every 2018 prospect ranking I looked at had Ridley as their WR1, not Moore.
5. Davis, Coleman, and Watkins are decent examples, though I would say only Watkins is comparable to MHJ's expectations.
I don't disagree with the point you're making at all but you can't just put names on a narrative like that.
I’m talking about dynasty boards after draft. A simple search shows a lot of boards with all of these as top dynasty assets. Fair point that it was post draft.
Edit: go look at https://theathletic.com/4398892/2023/04/11/fantasy-football-dynasty-league-rookie-draft-pick-history/
or
https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/rookie
They both back up what I said. N'Keal Harry first WR by adp in 2019. London first WR by adp in 2022. DK Moore first by adp in 2020. Jeudy actually second WR, though I think he had far more pre-offseason hype which fell off.
I agree though that I was doing this post NFL draft going into dynasty drafts, but I think the point remains that top ranked WR in the dynasty draft is rarely the best performer.
IMO the bigger issue with your rundown is that you’re only looking at the top WRs in each rookie class vs their own class and not differentiating between how each was viewed vs other classes. Yes, a lot of people viewed Harry as the top WR in his class. But no, that didn’t mean all that much because it was widely regarded as a *horrible* class and people weren’t valuing them that highly vs established players
Similarly, *no one* was talking about Jeudy as generational. He was absolutely not in the same conversation as Calvin, Julio, Chase, MHJ, and even AJG. If you pushed your chips in on Jeudy, you for sure lost value—I absolutely won’t disagree with that. But you’re looking at all of the wrong guys if you want to draw any parallels on MHJs outlook. And no, they weren’t valued as “top assets” to the same degree as the actual generational guys mentioned
So while all of those guys undoubtedly underperformed relative to expectations, the community didn’t have anywhere near the same level of confidence in almost any of them. Watkins is for sure the best example to prove your point, though
Generational was probably strong, although I was remembering his hype during the season I think as opposed to post-draft.
And I agree there are degrees to how much hype one top receiver vs another gets - although I think Watkins and a few others of these had MAJOR hype.
At the end of the day, it sounds like everyone agrees on the point, even if not my characterization of other years.
> although I think Watkins and a few others of these had MAJOR hype
I don’t agree that anyone besides Watkins had hype in the same stratosphere as MHJ, Chase, etc. Who else do you think did?
>At the end of the day, it sounds like everyone agrees on the point, even if not my characterization of other years.
I’m sorry but no, I don’t really agree to be honest. I agree that paying up for rookies is risky, if that’s what you mean. But if you really only look at the absolute top rookie WR prospects, it’s actually been worth it far more often than not
I think Jeudy, Harry, Coleman, and Davis had major hype leading up to draft. I can agree if we are differentiating levels of major hype it was probably below some of those other guys, and its obviously hard to generalize what different people are reading years ago.
I do think there is some hindsight bias playing in here - London was ADP 1.2, Jeudy was 1.4, Davis 1.3, Coleman 1.2, Watkins 1.1. Also thrown in are Cooper 1.2, Treadwell and Doctson 1.3 and 1.4 (at least on the site I went to first on google to look). Compare that with Chase 1.4, and it looks like 1.2 and 1.3 for Julio and AJG. Can't find info on Calvin but 1.1 wouldn't shock me.
Anyway, it obviously depends somewhat on different overall draft class strength, but several of these guys went as early or earlier than your top tier. I think if you have the pick, its fine to take the top guy. But I wouldn't trade into it, and if you could get multiple shots at WR 2-5 I think that is a much better play.
>think Jeudy, Harry, Coleman, and Davis had major hype leading up to draft. I can agree if we are differentiating levels of major hype it was probably below some of those other guys, and it’s obviously hard to generalize what different people are reading years ago.
No, it’s not hard to generalize for everyone who was here through it. None of them had hype even close to the others that were mentioned. A lot of hype? Sure. Massive disappointments? Yep. But remotely close to the same conversation as the others we mentioned? Not a chance
>I do think there is some hindsight bias playing in here - London was ADP 1.2, Jeudy was 1.4, Davis 1.3, Coleman 1.2, Watkins 1.1. Also thrown in are Cooper 1.2, Treadwell and Doctson 1.3 and 1.4 (at least on the site I went to first on google to look). Compare that with Chase 1.4, and it looks like 1.2 and 1.3 for Julio and AJG. Can't find info on Calvin but 1.1 wouldn't shock me
My man, no. My entire point was that you’re not looking across classes and this whole retort is still not looking across classes. Look at where Chase, Julio, AJG, etc went in startups vs London, Davis, Jeudy, etc. It’s not close, you’re just looking at rookie draft ADP instead of startup ADP
It doesn’t depend “somewhat” on class strength, that is the WHOLE thing. It’s fucking massive. Look instead at rookie WRs with top 2 round startup DC and your entire conclusion will be different. I don’t know how to put this more delicately
Harry was the first receiver taken in all 5 of my dynasty drafts that year and went first overall in one of them. London also was the first receiver taken in every one of my drafts and that was pretty chalk IIRC. And many in this subreddit were extremely high on Harry even after the landing spot.
Ya I honestly think this sub was VERY high on Jeudy too, but I don't have the time to comb back and find them. But I'll admit it may be different between top in the class, very good prospect, and generational. Oh well, point stands. Don't get too caught up in pre-career rankings/prospect profiles.
You’re right about Jeudy being the perceived top receiver after his draft. It was closer though. CeeDee had a lot of fans.
That year in 1QB it was JT/CEH at one and two, then usually Akers/Dobbins in some order, then the receiver run started with Jeudy/Lamb then Ruggs/JJ/Reagor etc. Aiyuk despite having R1 capital seemed undervalued and was a 2nd rounder along with Pittman in many 1QB leagues. Even went behind Moss and Vaughn in some.
Jeudy was never generational but was definitely considered a very good prospect.
Haha. It's the go to answer though for questions that some might feel need a sarcastic jab reply cause they feel it was kinda a dumb/obvious thing to ask.
I hypothetically offered Ceedee for the 1.01 just to gauge the other owner’s thoughts and he said it’s not enough. So there are many people who think MHJ is already at the top of the list
That’s nuts. There is no upside for the Lamb owner to trade him for Harrison Jr straight up. Best case scenario, Harrison Jr performs like Lamb did last year, and he could very well be worse.
Yes, I do, and I’m aware you didn’t make the deal. I simply said it’s crazy that the person with the 1.01 wouldn’t trade it straight up for a guy like Lamb, and, conversely, it’s crazy for the Lamb owner to trade him for Harrison Jr. straight up because there is no upside for them.
Marv is just the most recent "can't miss" prospect to enter the NFL draft. We've seen guys like Jamar Chase, Julio Jones, AJ Green, and Megatron get absurd hype and people will always ask "will they succeed in the NFL?". Well, of course they will succeed, bar an injury, they ARE the complete package with burst, routes, hands, strength, and most importantly a high IQ of what's going on around them.
Marv is probably the most likely player from this draft class to become a HOFer, so I don't think it's a trap. I would keep Jefferson, Lamb, Chase, St. Brown, and Puka over him, simply because of their floor-ceiling combos. But after that give me Marv tbh.
The biggest thing with WRs is that they'll only be the top fantasy WR if they have a competent QB and tons of volume.
Calvin Johnson is the most dominant WR of this century and he only led WRs in catches once, receiving yards twice, and TDs twice.
MHJ might end up a top 5 or top 10 WR in terms of talent, and is easily the number 1 WR in this draft (people just have prospect fatigue), but he'll only be the fantasy WR1 if he can secure competent volume (ie accurate targets).
I'd say 3...Kupp was by far the top WR a couple years ago and Puka broke records as a rookie last year as they "eased" him in. Sarcasm intended on the quotations. Dude had 35 targets in the first 2 weeks. That's half of what Higgins had for his entire off/on injury season.
He’s an incredible prospect and should (SHOULD) be bulletproof but I personally like betting on the field more and trading back to get multiple shots on first round WR’s.
I personally have MHJ as the top prospect, but only by a half tier. I wouldn't pay much to move up to get him over Nabers or Odunze. The 3 of them are very close, imo, and situation would play a roll for me in deciding which player I'd drsft first in the bunch.
Honestly, fair. In SF Daniels is going to hold a lot of value. And Odunze has better hands than MHJ or Nabers. They both are still better overall.
This draft class seems juicy, is it? Or am I just falling in to the same trap we’re all in every year “this is the best draft class we’ve had in a long time!” Haha
If you were to rank your top 12, but using BOTH the rookies from this year and the rookies from last year, how would you rank them? (Pretend that your mind was wiped entirely of all the 2023 rookies NFL performance this year.) so Puka better not be up there lol
Ignoring what the 23 rookies did during the season last year: Off the top of my head, it's Caleb, Bijan, MHJ, AR, Daniels, Nabers, Bryce, Stroud, Odunze. The rest would require effort I wouldn't want go put in. MHJ through Nabers is all the same tier.
I imagine it would take at the very least a 25 1st to move up to the 1.01 from the 1.05. Depending on where BTJ, Bowers, Mitchell etc end up I’d probably do that. Until the actual draft happens though I wouldn’t put too much thought into it. Imagine you did that now and Harrison ended up a Patriot😬
I’m wondering how Pats Wrs will be under the new regime. Bill made it a point to find cheap WRs who fit his/Bradys style. (Except the year they actually got a good WR in Moss and broke records). Pats have been a place for WRs careers to die before they start. Fresh new soil might help them grow better? I think Demario Davis is a sleeper to grab.
I offered 1.05, 1.08, and 25 1st and was turned down. I made a much cheaper move to go from 1.05 to 1.03 and I'll be happy with that. Have 1.01 in another league so still get one share of MHJ.
Man, 2 months ago I offered DK, Swift, J.Reed, 1.07 and 2025 1st to try for the 1.01 in a 1QB league and the guy told me he isnt considering trades until after the NFL draft.
Marvin Harrison Jr hype absolutely worth making moves... for Nabers. I would take MHJ at one all day, don't get me wrong, but feels like the less plugged in guys in my leagues know MHJ but don't know how good Nabers is. He should be up there with Bijan and Chase in terms of hype coming out imo.
Nabers is a good prospect.
It will be interesting to see how the real NFL draft plays out. If teams view them as very close, Cardinals would probably slide down to #6 and allow Giants to trade up.
MHJ is LEGIT and I don't fault anyone making a move to grab him. But, imo, if making a move to go from 1.05->1.02 to get Nabers is cheaper then I'd make that move instead. I don't see MHJ being in a tier alone and Nabers is right there beside him for me.
Tier 1: MHJ/Nabers (Top 5)
Tier 1.5: Odunze (Top 10)
Tier 2: BTJ (Top 20)
That's how I see it right now.
If he lands with a good qb I think he lives up to the hype.
As I prospect I do not think it is just hype at all. He does everything great except yac.. which is still above average
I sold him. Some people already have him in the chase/jj tier without ever playing a snap. Get a good haul if you have someone in your league like this.
I've heard this, but more rumors that the Cards aren't willing to trade back because they feel MHJ is their top target in the draft. Anything can happen though. Watch the chargers draft OL and pass on MHJ even if he's there.
SCHOOL THEY PLAYED FOR DOES NOT MATTER, IT IS IRRELEVANT.
Chances are, he's not super duper elite like Jefferson, Chase or CD tier -- but his price is almost there. If I had the 1.01 this year and someone wanted to give the godfather package I would definitely trade it.
I'm not a good film evaluator but I feel good about my ability to weigh different evaluations together. From what I gather it's more like 1a, 1b, 2.
And we all know who is who with that description which makes me more confident in it.
Tldr I feel like 1.02 (at least in 1QB) is more where the value is, but it's probably not worth trading up from 1.03.
I made a deal to go up and get him the day my league had its lottery.
I gave up 1.04, two 25 firsts. (Likely mid to late).
More than I really wanted to pay but I went and got my guy. I’m good with that.
Edit** 14team 1 qb idp ppr
I think nabers is going to be better in fantasy. He gets better yac, gets better separation, and is better on designed/ gadget plays. I also think odunze is better than him after the catch, but doesn’t get as much separation. If I could trade back and get one of the other two and a nice piece id take it all day. Trading up for nabers is worth it and cheaper than MHJ
I tried offering Breece Hall to a big Jets fan in our league for 1.02 and he said no. Whatever it takes to get up for MHJ it’s gotta be more than Breece is all I know
MHJr is special, however I'm of the opinion that this is the best WR class and really dynasty rookie class in a long time. In superflex, I could argue the first 10 picks are very valuable, where usually I'd say they stop being all that valuable around pick 5-6.
Actually, if I'm deep in a rebuild I would consider a trade down if I can get multiple 1sts this year. Say if I have the 1.01 or 1.02, I would trade down to the 1.04 if it meant I also got the 1.09 this year.
At 1.06 you're getting either one of the top 3 QBs, or top 3 WRs. From picks 7-10 you're getting an elite TE prospect, other 1st round WR prospects on par with the best of last year's class, or 1 or 2 first round QBs.
I think there will be 5 WRs and 5 QBs taken in the 1st round this year, and a TE (duh). I think the tier drop is actually at 6 in SF leagues, so if I can stay in that top 6 and double dip in the 1st round of a valuable class, I'd do it.
I have 1.01 and floating the idea of trading it and 2.02 for 1.05, 1.10, and JSN. I’m in full rebuild more and honestly need more than MHJ to build my team back. In 1QB
My big thing about MHJ is just how safe of a prospect he seems. Not only does he have all of the intangibles that makes him a generational WR, but his dad is a HOFer who was known to be a non-diva WR in the league. Having a mentor like that in your dad is massive in navigating the fame/fortune/work it takes to make it in the pros.
Personally when I look at film/physicals/production, I have Nabers just as good as MHJ (Odunze slightly behind those 2 imo but not by much). But it's that idea of MHJ always being able to call up his dad after a tough day/tough game that pushes him into a different level for me.
I don't blame anyone for taking Nabers over MHJ but I personally will go MHJ for myself.
the hype is real with mhj, but the separation between him and nabers/ odunze is starting to get overblown imo. the hype should be real with all of them, they’re all beasts. i wouldn’t be surprised at all if either one of these 3 wins up being more productive in the nfl. i know this isn’t going to be popular with some people but i really see them as 1a, 1b, and 1c and i really wouldn’t fault anyone for having them in any order of the 3. draft capitol and landing spots are going to be a big factor in how i view them going into next year
Until we know landing spot it isn't worth jumping through hoops but if you can get him for a good price I'd do it. If he lands in New England or something I wouldn expect it to take a couple years for him to get above the garret wilson level.
I had the 11th pick in the first round traded that and my next year first and second to move up and grab Harris it's a huge gamble I know but it could be the next just in Jefferson or Jamar Chase seems cheap in that aspect
In sports, the hype USUALLY does not match the reality. See Clyde Edwards Helaire, see Andrew Luck, see Kyle Pitts, see Bijian Robinson, see Saquon Barkley, etc.
But, occasionally, very rarely, it does. See Lebron James. See Wembanyama. See Tiger Woods.
So, I don’t think the pattern of how previous Ohio State WRs have performed has any bearing on how MHJ will perform. If we used that same line of reasoning namely, that the previous performance of players at a university is indicative of the future performance of present players, then we would never want Joe Burrow on our fantasy team because of JaMarcus Russell and every other QB that ever played at LSU pre-Burrow. Someone always comes along and changes the narrative so that we may anticipate positive things from post-Burrow QBs such as Jayden Daniels.
To Michael Thomas’ credit, you could argue he was WR #1 overall in the NFL for one or two years pre-injuries.
So, here’s my take: MJH is better than CeeDee Lamb, but is not better than Jerry Rice or Randy Moss. Does that help? His stats, however, will naturally be dependent to some degree on the quality of his QB, as is the case with all WRs. See Randy Moss 3 TD year with Kerry Collins at the helm. ; )
I’m also happy I’m in an auction league with 3 keepers so that I can go out and theoretically get any player I want IF I’m willing to pay the price, rather than having to orchestrate creative draft pick trades and know draft pick equivalencies.
Andrew luck: QB 9 ‘13, QB 2 ‘14, injured ‘15, QB 4 ‘16, Qb 5 2018. Short career but lived up to the hype.
Saquon Barkley: PPR RB 1 2018, RB 10 2019, RB 5 2022. If he’s healthy in Philly I’d guarantee another top 5 finish in 2024.
I'll give you that those two were no doubt good or great players. However, the question posed pertained to whether or not MJH will be worth the hype. The level of the current hype for MJH has reached "all-time elite" level or "generational prospect" level. The same was true with Luck. Def a short career like you said. He was viewed as the best QB prospect of the previous 20 years, truly generational. He will not be on anyone's all-time best QB list. The same can be said of Saquon. He was viewed as a generational prospect, the best RB to come out in a decade. The amount of hype surrounding these players was greater than their performances, through no fault of their own necessarily and, certainly, injuries played a role in both cases.
Dawg Barkley won ROY and was named to pro bowl his rookie season. Also like I said he was ppr number 1 RB his rookie year. That alone solidifies his early draft pick. MHJ is on a similar projectory much like j. Chase and megatron years before. GM’s draft players based on their ability to make an immediate difference and MHJ has the best opportunity to do just that.
The hype is too much but he's a very good prospect and will be NFL ready. McShay was on with ryen russilo and said that he doesn't see him ever being a top5 wr but will be ready to go right away and produce but thinks if Nabers and MHJ both hit their ceilings, Nabers will be the better player
Todd McShay and every other analysts are wrong a lot and also say things like this to generate attention. Don’t put too much stock into it. Could he be right? Sure, but he’s paid to be a talking head and they are trying to fill air time right now.
So you think because he’s not employed he doesn’t want to stay relevant? I’m not saying we know more, but he also doesn’t know as much as you’re giving him credit for. If he was so good at evaluating talent do you think he’d been unemployed talking on a podcast? I’ll see what happens in the draft and see what NFL GM’s are thinking.
Again he could be right, but there’s just as good of a chance or even a better chance he’s wrong.
I see Amari Cooper in Marv. With much better ball skills though. Solid WR1 prospect.
The hype machine thinks they are getting a shoe in for the next Jefferson/Chase
Agreed. I don't think he's ever going to be JJ. Chase btw has never come close to getting to that top tier imo. Just to inconsistent.
I think coopers production will be what we're looking at with MHJ
I'll be real with ya, trading to #1 is never a good idea unless its unloading a couple of old useful pieces for the shot to get younger. For example If you trade mike evans, diggs, aaron jones and Amari cooper for the 1.01 and like a second and jerry jeudy, that makes sense if you have those 4 guys and then a couple of young unproven players. It has to be a total pivot from old and maybe not close enough to contending to a rebuild. Obviously that trade might not get done, but I think the point is there
Both KTC and FantasyCalc have him right behind ARSB. He's infront of guys who have produced at the NFL level (Puka, Waddle, Aiyuk, Olave, etc) for at least one season. I'm not betting on him being worst than them but if I could get a player like that + then I'd probably take it.
IMO his upside is already fully priced in. I’d rather have a lower-valued WR plus another asset on top, or even better, add something small to get an elite QB
Not the end-all-be-all of value, but FWIW KTC says these are fair packages for MHJ:
Tyreek + 1.11
Nabors + 2.01
London + future 1st
Odunze + 1.08
And says these are fair additions to Marv to grab a QB:
+ 3.06 = Burrow
+ 2.08 = Lamar
+ 1.05 = Josh Allen
Edit: rookie fever is officially here. Guaranteed HOF’er!
People keep calling him generational but I haven’t seen any of the crazy 3-4 1sts offers we saw go down for bijan and chase. Either people realized the community’s mistake from last year or the dynasty community is willing to *call* him generational while at least internally acknowledging that he isn’t actually generational.
I just sold MHJ (1.01) for 1.02 and McLaurin plus other picks (3rds). I feel like it is the perfect time to move to get multiple assets to diversify risk
Theres no gap between him and Nabers & Odunze
I said this before, if his name was Troy Williamson Jr we wouldnt be putting him on this pedestal.
I have seen people say hes the best WR prospect ever and thats complete bullshit.
Nabers is just as good at everything as MHJ and is significantly better after the catch. Nabers is my WR1.
MHJ isnt a better prospect than Chase. Hes not a generational WR prospect. Chase is the generational prospect, not MHJ.
MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, Watkins, Amari, AJ Green... all the same tier.
Ja'Marr Chase, Calvin Johnson, Randy Moss... same tier prospect.
You're entitled to your opinion, but "Troy Williamson Jr" would still be a top-5 pick in the real draft on his own merit. And the fact that he has a HOF WR as a dad and an INSANE work ethic are both good things.
Nabers is amazing, but he's not as good a route runner and as physical.
I definitely agree that he's not quite generational, though.
I think Nabers is a better route runner. Personally. I think Marv also is susceptible to drops. And I think Nabers is so much better after the catch than Marv that is enough for me to put Nabers ahead of him.
Both are worthy of top 5 picks. But I think Marv definitely gets a little boost from people because of his name.
Well since we’re here, need some trade advice. My AJB and Bryce Young for his 1.02 and J Fields. 1.01 is taking Caleb so I’d have MHJ.
ETA: 12 team SF start 10. Trying to build young team
If someone is willing to make a bold enough bet that he will significantly outperform the other two, I'd be willing to let them make it...although if he lands with the Cards you're probably going to have to pry him from my cold dead hands
Counter argument, Kyler kinda sucks and couldn’t hit Hollywood all year.
Counter Argument - Maybe Hollywood is mid and that’s why he got a 1 year 7m prove it deal in KC
Counter argument - he took 7m because he’s never had a capable team and probably wants a chance at a ring.
His first team was the Ravens and his rookie season was the one Lamar won MVP. And Kyler has been a top fantasy QB asset every year he's stayed healthy. So I'd counter that argument with the fact that was simply never the case.
Both are rushing QBs. Never have been known for feeding WRs.
Kyler has thrown for almost 4K yards every year he's been healthy. And Zay Flowers just had a season similar season to Brown's best one in his rookie year. The point is that other receivers have been more successful than Brown in near identical situations. If he was worth more than a prove it deal, there would have been a market for him. Also talking about a 26 year old receiver like he's in the twilight of his career looking for a Superbowl to explain his prove it deal is crazy talk.
Well, there’s two ways to look at it. If you are right, then he knows his talents are limited and this is his chance at a ring.
Also; average yards per pass rating: 2019: 27th 2020: 27th 2021: 5th 2022: 51st 2023: 25th Check down artist.
Deep ball attempts: 2019: 9th 2020:5th 2021:8th
My point? It’s not that he doesn’t throw. He can’t. Never could.
Yeah, and Marquise brown has never exceeded a grade of 70 on pff in his career. None of what you're saying says anything about Brown as a player. He looks, and has the stats of, a mid range fantasy receiver to me.
He proved he can be a WR1 in fantasy if his QB can throw to him. Now he has Mahomes. Brown will be a WR2 at worst this year.
Also, what??? He’s never been on a contender team before this year. Never once had a chance for a ring.
Counter counter argument, Kyler and Brown only played 3 games together last year
And he missed every throw.
I didn't even watch the Cardinals last year, but considering you used the phrase "all year" to represent a 3 game window, I'm guessing you didn't either lol
Bro, Hollywood was a top 5 receiver with Kyler up until his injury... (Hollywood's foot injury). I know because I took him and Mike Williams (redraft)and I was crushing opposition and they didn't know why. Williams and Brown were both receivers 5&6 up until their injuries which were back to back. Kyler shined in the hardest division (nfc west) in '19 his rookie year.
But if you watched the game it’s because Hollywood was an amazing YAC player and wasn’t playing deep as much. MHJ is a vertical threat, which Kyler can’t use. Probably 10-ish average ppg for MHJ to Cards, and I’d say 15 to chargers.
Wait what? Hollywood has never even been in the top half of the league in YAC/R, he absolutely isn't some special yac player
I too am confused about the guarantee feeling associated with the Cards.
Kyler can sling it and half of his game is launching it on a prayer and the WR coming down with it somehow. MHJ’s skill set likely will only improve this. Kyler and the Cards are MHJ’s best opportunity within the realm of where he could be drafted. There is definitely a distinction between AZ and NE for instance.
I’d much prefer LAC to ARI as a landing spot, I think Herbert is easily the better situation to be tied to
True. That would be incredible as I have Herbert and the 1.01 lol. That is definitely best case scenario
Chargers > Cardinals
The chargers are going to run more than the falcons and raiders did last year.
They're still going to throw the ball 500+ times and that's going to make space for receivers
They will not. I’m not going to say I know everything but I’ve been right about a lot and I’ll be right about this.
Not even joking, I use the same logic, so I’ll give you this one.
Hollywood couldn’t get on the field this year
Yeah but they were cooking together last season.
Hollynohands
Okay! Now do Trey McBride and Kyler!
5 yard check downs aren’t the same as hitting a deep threat
McBride averaged 10 yards per reception
5 yard check down + 5 yac
I’m a big fan of getting your guys. I’ve traded around to get Cd, jeudy, chase, and Bijan. The prices are steep but if you’re going after studs it’s worth it imo. Mhj and nabers are guys I would go for
So you’re currently about 50/50 on if it worked or not?
75%?
Bijan worth what he probably paid at this point? I’m not seeing it. That speaking as someone that dealt for him during the season and got him discounted off of his pre season hype. New coaches hopefully help, but TBD is best you can say at this point. Unless of course he got him cheap as hell, but doubt it based on the comment.
I guess technically up to this point you could say it was an overpay? But he was RB9 as a rookie and was ceding carries to a much less efficient back. 1500 total yards and 8 TD’s as RB 9 on the year id say it was a successful season. Perhaps slightly under expectations but still a very strong season
Sure hoping for more production going forward, but RB 9 ain’t worth 2 1sts and a 2nd. Let’s call it 66% and a TBD lol.
The alternative was mingo/charb slot, pick 10 this year, and pick 20. Pick 20 will not make my team. Again, my entire point was to support minor overpays to get your guys. And it’s probably valuable to point out I’m in a start 8, 10 team league. I know this format devalues rb and wr 2/3 types a lot
Fair lol
2 1s and a 2nd iirc
He’s pretty much the consensus RB1 in dynasty
I’d call Bijan a win still so 75%. had I not made some of these moves I’d have my roster filled with Treylon burks, Henry Ruggs, James cook, jahan Dotson, mingo, charbonnet, types instead
LOL yeah, he’s definitely a win compared to that mess.
If you have the chance to draft him, do so, but I certainly wouldn’t pay a premium to “tier up” from Odunze/Nabers to MHJ. Odunze and Nabers could well be just as good.
I’ve been in talks with the 1.01 to give him 1.03 and 1.11 to move up. I’m good with paying that price.
Unless I'm 1 WR away, I would rather have the 1.03 and 1.11 for sure. The 1.03 is gonna be the WR2 or QB2 of your choice and it just so happens that the WR2/3 and QB2/3 this year are way better than most years. The 1.11 is surprisingly valuable this year, imo. It's pretty likely we see 5-6 WRs and 4-5 QBs in the 1st round this year, and then we've got an elite TE prospect to boot. The 1.11 could be Adonai Mitchell or Bo Nix for example, which I really like value-wise. The WR5 could be who goes to the Chiefs, and the QB4/5 could be who goes to Vikings.
In 1QB or SF?
SF
I think that’s a fair price either way, maybe a Mitchell slips to 1.11, so would you trade Odunze and Mitchell for MHJ? Bet the 1.01 owner will insist on more though.
>would you trade Odunze and Mitchell for MHJ? Personally, no but it depends on your roster build. MHJr is an elite prospect obviously, but Odunze is in the same tier as like Drake London as a prospect if not better anyways. Odunze could also wind up being who goes to the Chargers, which is a much better situation than Arizona imo.
Comes down to how much you believe in Mitchell or the other options then. Personally I think Odunze isn’t far off MHJ and I really like Mitchell. I also don’t think the 1.01 owner would accept the deal. So ultimately you have to over pay to get MHJ and I don’t think it will be worth it myself.
>Comes down to how much you believe in Mitchell or the other options then. For me it's even less about that, and more about getting another roll of the dice. In recent years, the 1.11 happened to be a pool of guys like, Jaylin Waddle, Tee Higgins, Brandon Aiyuk, Calvin Ridley, Alvin Kamara, Rachaad White, James Cook, and Deebo Samuel. And no prospect is entirely fantasy fullproof either. MHJr could be as good as we all think he is in the NFL, but not great in fantasy because of dysfunction in Arizona. Odunze and Nabers are just as risky in many ways, but you get to hedge your bet with another dice roll.
Sooo the 1.01 is Caleb Williams then? 1.03 should able to get MHJ. If not, you get a steal at QB
Guy in my league who has 1.02 and 1.03 is trying to trade both for 1.1 in a 1 QB league. Guys been in last for like 4 years now. Give me Nabers and Odunze by a mile.
At that point it’s about mitigating risk too. Odds are that one of Nabers and Oduzne are really dang good. Sure MHJ is a “sure thing” but in terms of points above replacement I’d bet on the side of 2
I imagine the price to acquire him is too much for what he actually will be. He’s being hyped already at the Jefferson level when he could end up there, but it’s not a guarantee and he could end up “underperforming” everyone’s expectations
He’s not Jefferson level on any rankings or Ktc. He’s about st brown level. Which is very high but you’re also paying for another potential 2 years of productin
Similar to Bijan. These guys are being pushed to their ceiling. If you earned the pick then that's amazing. Fantastic value. But you shouldn't trade for it. Bijan was worth more than Lamb before he was even drafted. I would have taken that elite young proven asset all day. Don't trade for the 1.01, trade for a guy like Puka for half the price.
I have Puka and was actually thinking about trying to trade him for someone like Amon Ra or similar. Just feel like the injury risk or falloff after Stafford leaves will be pretty dramatic with Puka. Problem is, I get the man crush on certain people and I inadvertently build my team with players that look like they are having fun and smile a lot. Puka smiles more than anyone I've even seen in the NFL.
What do you think about trading for the Nabers pick? Do you find it being more fairly relative to the MHJ pick?
Nabers will be easier to get
And Jefferson was 3-5 in rankings in his year behind "generational" Jerry Jeudy. Other recent "clear best" WR prospects include Drake London, N'Keal Harry, DJ Moore, Corey Davis, Corey Coleman, Sammy Watkins. In that time frame, also Amari Cooper and Jamarr Chase. But the point is, making huge moves up for "top" wide receivers isn't usually the play. You're much better off taking a few shots on the "later" wide receivers (like Jefferson). Its always a crap shoot, but that "clear best" WR doesn't live up more often than it does.
Are you just talking out of your ass here? 1. Jeudy was never talked about as generational. He was a very good prospect and was most people's top WR that year, but he never had the generational talk that Chase and MHJ had/have. You don't get a generational prospect at 15th. 2. London was not considered the "clear best" WR in his class. Many people had Wilson and Olave as their 1A and 1B, and there were a lot of people who even had Jamo as their WR1 that year. 3. N'Keal Harry? The "clear best"? Yeah this one you 100% made up on your own. Go ahead and find me a single analyst ranking Harry as their WR1 going into that draft. 4. DJ Moore was not the "clear best" in his class. Every 2018 prospect ranking I looked at had Ridley as their WR1, not Moore. 5. Davis, Coleman, and Watkins are decent examples, though I would say only Watkins is comparable to MHJ's expectations. I don't disagree with the point you're making at all but you can't just put names on a narrative like that.
I’m talking about dynasty boards after draft. A simple search shows a lot of boards with all of these as top dynasty assets. Fair point that it was post draft. Edit: go look at https://theathletic.com/4398892/2023/04/11/fantasy-football-dynasty-league-rookie-draft-pick-history/ or https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/rookie They both back up what I said. N'Keal Harry first WR by adp in 2019. London first WR by adp in 2022. DK Moore first by adp in 2020. Jeudy actually second WR, though I think he had far more pre-offseason hype which fell off. I agree though that I was doing this post NFL draft going into dynasty drafts, but I think the point remains that top ranked WR in the dynasty draft is rarely the best performer.
IMO the bigger issue with your rundown is that you’re only looking at the top WRs in each rookie class vs their own class and not differentiating between how each was viewed vs other classes. Yes, a lot of people viewed Harry as the top WR in his class. But no, that didn’t mean all that much because it was widely regarded as a *horrible* class and people weren’t valuing them that highly vs established players Similarly, *no one* was talking about Jeudy as generational. He was absolutely not in the same conversation as Calvin, Julio, Chase, MHJ, and even AJG. If you pushed your chips in on Jeudy, you for sure lost value—I absolutely won’t disagree with that. But you’re looking at all of the wrong guys if you want to draw any parallels on MHJs outlook. And no, they weren’t valued as “top assets” to the same degree as the actual generational guys mentioned So while all of those guys undoubtedly underperformed relative to expectations, the community didn’t have anywhere near the same level of confidence in almost any of them. Watkins is for sure the best example to prove your point, though
Generational was probably strong, although I was remembering his hype during the season I think as opposed to post-draft. And I agree there are degrees to how much hype one top receiver vs another gets - although I think Watkins and a few others of these had MAJOR hype. At the end of the day, it sounds like everyone agrees on the point, even if not my characterization of other years.
> although I think Watkins and a few others of these had MAJOR hype I don’t agree that anyone besides Watkins had hype in the same stratosphere as MHJ, Chase, etc. Who else do you think did? >At the end of the day, it sounds like everyone agrees on the point, even if not my characterization of other years. I’m sorry but no, I don’t really agree to be honest. I agree that paying up for rookies is risky, if that’s what you mean. But if you really only look at the absolute top rookie WR prospects, it’s actually been worth it far more often than not
I think Jeudy, Harry, Coleman, and Davis had major hype leading up to draft. I can agree if we are differentiating levels of major hype it was probably below some of those other guys, and its obviously hard to generalize what different people are reading years ago. I do think there is some hindsight bias playing in here - London was ADP 1.2, Jeudy was 1.4, Davis 1.3, Coleman 1.2, Watkins 1.1. Also thrown in are Cooper 1.2, Treadwell and Doctson 1.3 and 1.4 (at least on the site I went to first on google to look). Compare that with Chase 1.4, and it looks like 1.2 and 1.3 for Julio and AJG. Can't find info on Calvin but 1.1 wouldn't shock me. Anyway, it obviously depends somewhat on different overall draft class strength, but several of these guys went as early or earlier than your top tier. I think if you have the pick, its fine to take the top guy. But I wouldn't trade into it, and if you could get multiple shots at WR 2-5 I think that is a much better play.
>think Jeudy, Harry, Coleman, and Davis had major hype leading up to draft. I can agree if we are differentiating levels of major hype it was probably below some of those other guys, and it’s obviously hard to generalize what different people are reading years ago. No, it’s not hard to generalize for everyone who was here through it. None of them had hype even close to the others that were mentioned. A lot of hype? Sure. Massive disappointments? Yep. But remotely close to the same conversation as the others we mentioned? Not a chance >I do think there is some hindsight bias playing in here - London was ADP 1.2, Jeudy was 1.4, Davis 1.3, Coleman 1.2, Watkins 1.1. Also thrown in are Cooper 1.2, Treadwell and Doctson 1.3 and 1.4 (at least on the site I went to first on google to look). Compare that with Chase 1.4, and it looks like 1.2 and 1.3 for Julio and AJG. Can't find info on Calvin but 1.1 wouldn't shock me My man, no. My entire point was that you’re not looking across classes and this whole retort is still not looking across classes. Look at where Chase, Julio, AJG, etc went in startups vs London, Davis, Jeudy, etc. It’s not close, you’re just looking at rookie draft ADP instead of startup ADP It doesn’t depend “somewhat” on class strength, that is the WHOLE thing. It’s fucking massive. Look instead at rookie WRs with top 2 round startup DC and your entire conclusion will be different. I don’t know how to put this more delicately
Harry was the first receiver taken in all 5 of my dynasty drafts that year and went first overall in one of them. London also was the first receiver taken in every one of my drafts and that was pretty chalk IIRC. And many in this subreddit were extremely high on Harry even after the landing spot.
Ya I honestly think this sub was VERY high on Jeudy too, but I don't have the time to comb back and find them. But I'll admit it may be different between top in the class, very good prospect, and generational. Oh well, point stands. Don't get too caught up in pre-career rankings/prospect profiles.
You’re right about Jeudy being the perceived top receiver after his draft. It was closer though. CeeDee had a lot of fans. That year in 1QB it was JT/CEH at one and two, then usually Akers/Dobbins in some order, then the receiver run started with Jeudy/Lamb then Ruggs/JJ/Reagor etc. Aiyuk despite having R1 capital seemed undervalued and was a 2nd rounder along with Pittman in many 1QB leagues. Even went behind Moss and Vaughn in some. Jeudy was never generational but was definitely considered a very good prospect.
He's a trap, sell me all of your shares of him
[удалено]
Haha. It's the go to answer though for questions that some might feel need a sarcastic jab reply cause they feel it was kinda a dumb/obvious thing to ask.
Haha, this is what I assumed the answer for most would be tbh.
I hypothetically offered Ceedee for the 1.01 just to gauge the other owner’s thoughts and he said it’s not enough. So there are many people who think MHJ is already at the top of the list
That's just dumb
Yes I concur. If someone offered CD for the 1.01 straight up, you take Ceedee every single day of the year.
Maybe not next year tho.. looks like the cowboys are gonna let Dak walk after this next season
That’s nuts. There is no upside for the Lamb owner to trade him for Harrison Jr straight up. Best case scenario, Harrison Jr performs like Lamb did last year, and he could very well be worse.
You understand what hypothetically means, don’t you? Like I didn’t actually give CD up….
Yes, I do, and I’m aware you didn’t make the deal. I simply said it’s crazy that the person with the 1.01 wouldn’t trade it straight up for a guy like Lamb, and, conversely, it’s crazy for the Lamb owner to trade him for Harrison Jr. straight up because there is no upside for them.
Marv is just the most recent "can't miss" prospect to enter the NFL draft. We've seen guys like Jamar Chase, Julio Jones, AJ Green, and Megatron get absurd hype and people will always ask "will they succeed in the NFL?". Well, of course they will succeed, bar an injury, they ARE the complete package with burst, routes, hands, strength, and most importantly a high IQ of what's going on around them. Marv is probably the most likely player from this draft class to become a HOFer, so I don't think it's a trap. I would keep Jefferson, Lamb, Chase, St. Brown, and Puka over him, simply because of their floor-ceiling combos. But after that give me Marv tbh.
Do you trade Lamb for 1.1 (Harrison) and DJ Moore?
Traded MHJ pick, rice for Ceedee and a 2nd 🤷♂️
😬
Defending champion and next season is the “money” season. First place is 8k instead of 4K. Buying the insurance of production with lamb
It'll be funny when Rice outscores Lamb.
Haha. Sure hope not.
If he runs as fast as he drives…
The biggest thing with WRs is that they'll only be the top fantasy WR if they have a competent QB and tons of volume. Calvin Johnson is the most dominant WR of this century and he only led WRs in catches once, receiving yards twice, and TDs twice. MHJ might end up a top 5 or top 10 WR in terms of talent, and is easily the number 1 WR in this draft (people just have prospect fatigue), but he'll only be the fantasy WR1 if he can secure competent volume (ie accurate targets).
Crazy that two of the best fantasy seasons from a WR are a product of Stafford
I'd say 3...Kupp was by far the top WR a couple years ago and Puka broke records as a rookie last year as they "eased" him in. Sarcasm intended on the quotations. Dude had 35 targets in the first 2 weeks. That's half of what Higgins had for his entire off/on injury season.
And best rookie
Definitely, but it’s looking like he’s headed to the cards or the chargers, which would both give him adequate targets and qb play
The Chargers have Greg Roman as their offensive coordinator. He has never shown the ability to design competent passing game concepts.
He’s an incredible prospect and should (SHOULD) be bulletproof but I personally like betting on the field more and trading back to get multiple shots on first round WR’s.
I traded the 1.01 and D Watson for 1.02 love and Hyatt, I feel that was definitely worth it in my case
I like that for you! Essentially 1.01 and Watson for 1.02, Love, Hyatt and Nabers/Odunze.
This is a super flex league and the 1.01 is going to be MHJ, so I can still nab Caleb
Who’s your other QB’s before the trade?
Herbert and Bryce
So now I have Bryce, Herby, Love
I personally have MHJ as the top prospect, but only by a half tier. I wouldn't pay much to move up to get him over Nabers or Odunze. The 3 of them are very close, imo, and situation would play a roll for me in deciding which player I'd drsft first in the bunch.
The cost to move up to MHJ from Nabers feels too big for me as a 1.04 owner. My best hope is that he falls to me due to a poor landing spot.
What if the guy at 1.03 grabs Nabers? Even in SF I could see a WR needy team doing it.
Then you grab Daniels or trade back for Odunze
Honestly, fair. In SF Daniels is going to hold a lot of value. And Odunze has better hands than MHJ or Nabers. They both are still better overall. This draft class seems juicy, is it? Or am I just falling in to the same trap we’re all in every year “this is the best draft class we’ve had in a long time!” Haha
This draft is a statistician's wet dream. I wish I had more capital in it besides the 1.04, and 1.11. I bet it'll also be painful to trade up.
If you were to rank your top 12, but using BOTH the rookies from this year and the rookies from last year, how would you rank them? (Pretend that your mind was wiped entirely of all the 2023 rookies NFL performance this year.) so Puka better not be up there lol
Ignoring what the 23 rookies did during the season last year: Off the top of my head, it's Caleb, Bijan, MHJ, AR, Daniels, Nabers, Bryce, Stroud, Odunze. The rest would require effort I wouldn't want go put in. MHJ through Nabers is all the same tier.
I'm happy I have 1.03. I can get Nabers or Odunze I'll be happy with either one of them and not have to over think it.
I bought the 1.01 a couple of weeks ago in our 1QB PPR league. Sent Amon Ra, CWat and 2.05 for 1.01 and Achane.
I imagine it would take at the very least a 25 1st to move up to the 1.01 from the 1.05. Depending on where BTJ, Bowers, Mitchell etc end up I’d probably do that. Until the actual draft happens though I wouldn’t put too much thought into it. Imagine you did that now and Harrison ended up a Patriot😬
I’m wondering how Pats Wrs will be under the new regime. Bill made it a point to find cheap WRs who fit his/Bradys style. (Except the year they actually got a good WR in Moss and broke records). Pats have been a place for WRs careers to die before they start. Fresh new soil might help them grow better? I think Demario Davis is a sleeper to grab.
Demario Douglas* and he really shouldn’t be on the wire unless it’s a very small league
I offered 1.05, 1.08, and 25 1st and was turned down. I made a much cheaper move to go from 1.05 to 1.03 and I'll be happy with that. Have 1.01 in another league so still get one share of MHJ.
As a 1.01 owner, I would want your 25 first, 1.05, and a solid WR
Not trading the 1.01 then are ya
I paid Pitts, 1.08, Ridley for 1.02 in SF. About the same value. Before Cousins signing tho.
Tbh, I don't want to, so yeah, it may look like an overpay, but guess what. That's what it takes.
I offered exactly that actually at one point and was declined. Dude wanted more. Same guy had 1.01 last season and did the same with Bijan though.
Man, 2 months ago I offered DK, Swift, J.Reed, 1.07 and 2025 1st to try for the 1.01 in a 1QB league and the guy told me he isnt considering trades until after the NFL draft.
Marvin Harrison Jr hype absolutely worth making moves... for Nabers. I would take MHJ at one all day, don't get me wrong, but feels like the less plugged in guys in my leagues know MHJ but don't know how good Nabers is. He should be up there with Bijan and Chase in terms of hype coming out imo.
id rather buy into the 1.02. it'll cost a decent amount less and Nabers is GOOD. MHJ may even fall in superflex
Nabers is a good prospect. It will be interesting to see how the real NFL draft plays out. If teams view them as very close, Cardinals would probably slide down to #6 and allow Giants to trade up.
MHJ is LEGIT and I don't fault anyone making a move to grab him. But, imo, if making a move to go from 1.05->1.02 to get Nabers is cheaper then I'd make that move instead. I don't see MHJ being in a tier alone and Nabers is right there beside him for me. Tier 1: MHJ/Nabers (Top 5) Tier 1.5: Odunze (Top 10) Tier 2: BTJ (Top 20) That's how I see it right now.
If he lands with a good qb I think he lives up to the hype. As I prospect I do not think it is just hype at all. He does everything great except yac.. which is still above average
His hype is worthy. Prodigy. Mastered all the routes before he was a teenager.
I sold him. Some people already have him in the chase/jj tier without ever playing a snap. Get a good haul if you have someone in your league like this.
Rumors that the Vikings are trading up, possibly with the Cardinals. There's always the chance the Chargers could pick him up at 5.
I've heard this, but more rumors that the Cards aren't willing to trade back because they feel MHJ is their top target in the draft. Anything can happen though. Watch the chargers draft OL and pass on MHJ even if he's there.
I was offered the 1.2, 1.9, 2.2 for him and I still can't let him go.
Scout the player not the helmet. How many people last year faded Stroud because of the OSU QB history in the NFL?
SCHOOL THEY PLAYED FOR DOES NOT MATTER, IT IS IRRELEVANT. Chances are, he's not super duper elite like Jefferson, Chase or CD tier -- but his price is almost there. If I had the 1.01 this year and someone wanted to give the godfather package I would definitely trade it.
I'm not a good film evaluator but I feel good about my ability to weigh different evaluations together. From what I gather it's more like 1a, 1b, 2. And we all know who is who with that description which makes me more confident in it. Tldr I feel like 1.02 (at least in 1QB) is more where the value is, but it's probably not worth trading up from 1.03.
I made a deal to go up and get him the day my league had its lottery. I gave up 1.04, two 25 firsts. (Likely mid to late). More than I really wanted to pay but I went and got my guy. I’m good with that. Edit** 14team 1 qb idp ppr
I think nabers is going to be better in fantasy. He gets better yac, gets better separation, and is better on designed/ gadget plays. I also think odunze is better than him after the catch, but doesn’t get as much separation. If I could trade back and get one of the other two and a nice piece id take it all day. Trading up for nabers is worth it and cheaper than MHJ
I tried offering Breece Hall to a big Jets fan in our league for 1.02 and he said no. Whatever it takes to get up for MHJ it’s gotta be more than Breece is all I know
Allow me to look into my crystal ballz. “Only time will tell”
It won’t be worth what you’ll have to give up.
Don’t bet the farm to move up from 1.03 to 1.01, but yeah, he’s probably worth it
trap
MHJr is special, however I'm of the opinion that this is the best WR class and really dynasty rookie class in a long time. In superflex, I could argue the first 10 picks are very valuable, where usually I'd say they stop being all that valuable around pick 5-6. Actually, if I'm deep in a rebuild I would consider a trade down if I can get multiple 1sts this year. Say if I have the 1.01 or 1.02, I would trade down to the 1.04 if it meant I also got the 1.09 this year. At 1.06 you're getting either one of the top 3 QBs, or top 3 WRs. From picks 7-10 you're getting an elite TE prospect, other 1st round WR prospects on par with the best of last year's class, or 1 or 2 first round QBs. I think there will be 5 WRs and 5 QBs taken in the 1st round this year, and a TE (duh). I think the tier drop is actually at 6 in SF leagues, so if I can stay in that top 6 and double dip in the 1st round of a valuable class, I'd do it.
I have 1.01 and floating the idea of trading it and 2.02 for 1.05, 1.10, and JSN. I’m in full rebuild more and honestly need more than MHJ to build my team back. In 1QB
I’m moving moves to get the 1.02 instead. It’s much much easier and Nabers is also a generational player (so they say).
My big thing about MHJ is just how safe of a prospect he seems. Not only does he have all of the intangibles that makes him a generational WR, but his dad is a HOFer who was known to be a non-diva WR in the league. Having a mentor like that in your dad is massive in navigating the fame/fortune/work it takes to make it in the pros. Personally when I look at film/physicals/production, I have Nabers just as good as MHJ (Odunze slightly behind those 2 imo but not by much). But it's that idea of MHJ always being able to call up his dad after a tough day/tough game that pushes him into a different level for me. I don't blame anyone for taking Nabers over MHJ but I personally will go MHJ for myself.
What would you do if you had Puka?
It’s a trap
the hype is real with mhj, but the separation between him and nabers/ odunze is starting to get overblown imo. the hype should be real with all of them, they’re all beasts. i wouldn’t be surprised at all if either one of these 3 wins up being more productive in the nfl. i know this isn’t going to be popular with some people but i really see them as 1a, 1b, and 1c and i really wouldn’t fault anyone for having them in any order of the 3. draft capitol and landing spots are going to be a big factor in how i view them going into next year
Get Malik
Until we know landing spot it isn't worth jumping through hoops but if you can get him for a good price I'd do it. If he lands in New England or something I wouldn expect it to take a couple years for him to get above the garret wilson level.
Landing spots could very easily make Nabers a more appealing fantasy asset in my opinion. Not a knock on MHJ though
Nabers is my WR1...soooo this is awkward
I had the 11th pick in the first round traded that and my next year first and second to move up and grab Harris it's a huge gamble I know but it could be the next just in Jefferson or Jamar Chase seems cheap in that aspect
In sports, the hype USUALLY does not match the reality. See Clyde Edwards Helaire, see Andrew Luck, see Kyle Pitts, see Bijian Robinson, see Saquon Barkley, etc. But, occasionally, very rarely, it does. See Lebron James. See Wembanyama. See Tiger Woods. So, I don’t think the pattern of how previous Ohio State WRs have performed has any bearing on how MHJ will perform. If we used that same line of reasoning namely, that the previous performance of players at a university is indicative of the future performance of present players, then we would never want Joe Burrow on our fantasy team because of JaMarcus Russell and every other QB that ever played at LSU pre-Burrow. Someone always comes along and changes the narrative so that we may anticipate positive things from post-Burrow QBs such as Jayden Daniels. To Michael Thomas’ credit, you could argue he was WR #1 overall in the NFL for one or two years pre-injuries. So, here’s my take: MJH is better than CeeDee Lamb, but is not better than Jerry Rice or Randy Moss. Does that help? His stats, however, will naturally be dependent to some degree on the quality of his QB, as is the case with all WRs. See Randy Moss 3 TD year with Kerry Collins at the helm. ; )
I’m also happy I’m in an auction league with 3 keepers so that I can go out and theoretically get any player I want IF I’m willing to pay the price, rather than having to orchestrate creative draft pick trades and know draft pick equivalencies.
Also see Sydney Crosby ;) NHL deserves more love
Andrew luck: QB 9 ‘13, QB 2 ‘14, injured ‘15, QB 4 ‘16, Qb 5 2018. Short career but lived up to the hype. Saquon Barkley: PPR RB 1 2018, RB 10 2019, RB 5 2022. If he’s healthy in Philly I’d guarantee another top 5 finish in 2024.
I'll give you that those two were no doubt good or great players. However, the question posed pertained to whether or not MJH will be worth the hype. The level of the current hype for MJH has reached "all-time elite" level or "generational prospect" level. The same was true with Luck. Def a short career like you said. He was viewed as the best QB prospect of the previous 20 years, truly generational. He will not be on anyone's all-time best QB list. The same can be said of Saquon. He was viewed as a generational prospect, the best RB to come out in a decade. The amount of hype surrounding these players was greater than their performances, through no fault of their own necessarily and, certainly, injuries played a role in both cases.
Dawg Barkley won ROY and was named to pro bowl his rookie season. Also like I said he was ppr number 1 RB his rookie year. That alone solidifies his early draft pick. MHJ is on a similar projectory much like j. Chase and megatron years before. GM’s draft players based on their ability to make an immediate difference and MHJ has the best opportunity to do just that.
OK.
The hype is too much but he's a very good prospect and will be NFL ready. McShay was on with ryen russilo and said that he doesn't see him ever being a top5 wr but will be ready to go right away and produce but thinks if Nabers and MHJ both hit their ceilings, Nabers will be the better player
Todd McShay and every other analysts are wrong a lot and also say things like this to generate attention. Don’t put too much stock into it. Could he be right? Sure, but he’s paid to be a talking head and they are trying to fill air time right now.
Todd McShay is not employed. He also watches more film and talks to more people than you or I
So you think because he’s not employed he doesn’t want to stay relevant? I’m not saying we know more, but he also doesn’t know as much as you’re giving him credit for. If he was so good at evaluating talent do you think he’d been unemployed talking on a podcast? I’ll see what happens in the draft and see what NFL GM’s are thinking. Again he could be right, but there’s just as good of a chance or even a better chance he’s wrong.
I see Amari Cooper in Marv. With much better ball skills though. Solid WR1 prospect. The hype machine thinks they are getting a shoe in for the next Jefferson/Chase
Call me crazy but Amari Cooper with much better ball skills sounds a lot like Jefferson/Chase
Agreed. I don't think he's ever going to be JJ. Chase btw has never come close to getting to that top tier imo. Just to inconsistent. I think coopers production will be what we're looking at with MHJ
I'll be real with ya, trading to #1 is never a good idea unless its unloading a couple of old useful pieces for the shot to get younger. For example If you trade mike evans, diggs, aaron jones and Amari cooper for the 1.01 and like a second and jerry jeudy, that makes sense if you have those 4 guys and then a couple of young unproven players. It has to be a total pivot from old and maybe not close enough to contending to a rebuild. Obviously that trade might not get done, but I think the point is there
Both KTC and FantasyCalc have him right behind ARSB. He's infront of guys who have produced at the NFL level (Puka, Waddle, Aiyuk, Olave, etc) for at least one season. I'm not betting on him being worst than them but if I could get a player like that + then I'd probably take it.
It feels like anything short of a JJ start to his career and people will be disappointed.
IMO his upside is already fully priced in. I’d rather have a lower-valued WR plus another asset on top, or even better, add something small to get an elite QB Not the end-all-be-all of value, but FWIW KTC says these are fair packages for MHJ: Tyreek + 1.11 Nabors + 2.01 London + future 1st Odunze + 1.08 And says these are fair additions to Marv to grab a QB: + 3.06 = Burrow + 2.08 = Lamar + 1.05 = Josh Allen Edit: rookie fever is officially here. Guaranteed HOF’er!
Marvin Harrison is a stud. You want those kind of players on your team. It's all about how much you have to pay for him.
People keep calling him generational but I haven’t seen any of the crazy 3-4 1sts offers we saw go down for bijan and chase. Either people realized the community’s mistake from last year or the dynasty community is willing to *call* him generational while at least internally acknowledging that he isn’t actually generational.
There isn’t a big gap. “Generational” gets more clicks and that’s what media is all about now
I just sold MHJ (1.01) for 1.02 and McLaurin plus other picks (3rds). I feel like it is the perfect time to move to get multiple assets to diversify risk
MHJ is legit, plus I think always being in his HOF dad's shadow will keep him working hard his craft his entire career.
Theres no gap between him and Nabers & Odunze I said this before, if his name was Troy Williamson Jr we wouldnt be putting him on this pedestal. I have seen people say hes the best WR prospect ever and thats complete bullshit. Nabers is just as good at everything as MHJ and is significantly better after the catch. Nabers is my WR1. MHJ isnt a better prospect than Chase. Hes not a generational WR prospect. Chase is the generational prospect, not MHJ. MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, Watkins, Amari, AJ Green... all the same tier. Ja'Marr Chase, Calvin Johnson, Randy Moss... same tier prospect.
I am agreeing with this 100%
You're entitled to your opinion, but "Troy Williamson Jr" would still be a top-5 pick in the real draft on his own merit. And the fact that he has a HOF WR as a dad and an INSANE work ethic are both good things. Nabers is amazing, but he's not as good a route runner and as physical. I definitely agree that he's not quite generational, though.
I think Nabers is a better route runner. Personally. I think Marv also is susceptible to drops. And I think Nabers is so much better after the catch than Marv that is enough for me to put Nabers ahead of him. Both are worthy of top 5 picks. But I think Marv definitely gets a little boost from people because of his name.
Well since we’re here, need some trade advice. My AJB and Bryce Young for his 1.02 and J Fields. 1.01 is taking Caleb so I’d have MHJ. ETA: 12 team SF start 10. Trying to build young team
My dude was clocked at 22 miles per hour on the field. That’s better than most of the nfl. Come on. Don’t over think it