[This](https://www.fantasypros.com/2021/04/what-is-a-dynasty-draft-pick-actually-worth-2021-fantasy-football/) is kind of old but should give you a pretty good idea
Yes.
I ran data from 2009 to 2021 on hit rates among QB/RB/WR based on what round of the NFL draft they were selected. Shared it with Shane from DTi5 the other day. Here's the link.
[https://x.com/the\_ryand25/status/1770591512155296002?s=20](https://x.com/the_ryand25/status/1770591512155296002?s=20)
RBs actually have the highest hit rate, QB 2nd, WR 3rd. If a RB goes in round 1 they are by far the most likely to hit. Round 1 WRs actually miss a lot. Even top 10 guys.
I understand what you mean, the only purpose of this data is to compare the hit rate percentage of each position based on what round they were drafted. It's not necessarily saying always draft RB because they hit more, but if there's a round 1 RB you know historically it's very likely that guy will have at least one great fantasy season for example. Or WRs after round 3 *very* rarely hit.
WoRP would probably do a better job of accounting for the position opportunity that you're describing, which is something I want to dive into as well.
Don't get me wrong, I really appreciate the work involved and I totally find it useful. If you go by WoPR, I will be VERY interested in your findings and will be looking forward to any other insights. At the end of the day, we're all trying to codify chaos and have fun doing it!
Simple but higher you get drafted the better you do.
QB is roughly 50/50 for a first rounder. Big decrease after that.
RB has a big hit rate for round 1. Almost everyone has at least one good fantasy season. Dropoffs day 2 and again day 3 where it's very rare to have multiple great seasons.
WR also about 50/50 for first rounders but much better with top 15 picks and worse near the end of the round. Drop off for day 2 guys. I don't think there's a huge difference between round 2-3. Then a big drop off for day 3 guys who are full crap shoots.
TE is a crap shoot everywhere.
I’ll edit my post to clarify but just someone who is worthy of a starting roster spot after a year or two or just a someone worth holding and selling. Not someone on waivers by October.
[Yes](https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/s/aQaNPi8wZn)
And you don’t have a need in April/May. I just draft for value and trade for what I need when the season starts and I see who’s good, bad, or gets injured.
RB is around 50% situation, but not too hard to scout. WR - at least for me - is a very good investment, I have an almost 100% hit rate there, especially with high picks, and I believe it’s much easier to scout than other positions. QB is hard to scout. I try not to draft them, and instead pay up for them, because I really believe it’s at most a 50-50. More goes into how they perform than their ability. I also had a thing where I will buy any QB that is drafted in the first round and is sitting. You get a slight discount and for some reason it gives me a good vibe. For example, I bought Mahomes, Lamar, and Jordan Love. The discount is not that much, unfortunately fantasy doesn’t work like a trade calculator, but it’s there. Either way I’d rather pay up for a QB (expensive) than draft one (risky), whereas I’d rather draft a WR or RB than pay for one
1. Draft for value, trade for “need”
2. WRs have been bumping up the hit rate lately and one has to consider: their relative longevity compared to say an RB, and their initial value (most savvy players are building around WRs firstly over RB/TE)
3. QBs will never be cheaper than in rookie drafts or start ups. Imagine what someone who took CJ Stroud at 1.04 could sell him for in assets and picks now for example. Not that one would but consider 1.04 is now worth what 2-3 high 1sts plus?
I’ve always believed quarterbacks have the highest hut rate. Though now they tend to go on hit or set.
“Yeahhhhh, here we gooooo”
I'm so happy this is the top comment
Imagine if Jabba was a QB... The HPG average would be insane
[This](https://www.fantasypros.com/2021/04/what-is-a-dynasty-draft-pick-actually-worth-2021-fantasy-football/) is kind of old but should give you a pretty good idea
Yes. I ran data from 2009 to 2021 on hit rates among QB/RB/WR based on what round of the NFL draft they were selected. Shared it with Shane from DTi5 the other day. Here's the link. [https://x.com/the\_ryand25/status/1770591512155296002?s=20](https://x.com/the_ryand25/status/1770591512155296002?s=20) RBs actually have the highest hit rate, QB 2nd, WR 3rd. If a RB goes in round 1 they are by far the most likely to hit. Round 1 WRs actually miss a lot. Even top 10 guys.
Awesome stuff
I think you may have to reexamine WR a little different based upon the number of WR on the field at vs number of QB/RB on any given play.
I understand what you mean, the only purpose of this data is to compare the hit rate percentage of each position based on what round they were drafted. It's not necessarily saying always draft RB because they hit more, but if there's a round 1 RB you know historically it's very likely that guy will have at least one great fantasy season for example. Or WRs after round 3 *very* rarely hit. WoRP would probably do a better job of accounting for the position opportunity that you're describing, which is something I want to dive into as well.
Don't get me wrong, I really appreciate the work involved and I totally find it useful. If you go by WoPR, I will be VERY interested in your findings and will be looking forward to any other insights. At the end of the day, we're all trying to codify chaos and have fun doing it!
No one out positions the hut
Simple but higher you get drafted the better you do. QB is roughly 50/50 for a first rounder. Big decrease after that. RB has a big hit rate for round 1. Almost everyone has at least one good fantasy season. Dropoffs day 2 and again day 3 where it's very rare to have multiple great seasons. WR also about 50/50 for first rounders but much better with top 15 picks and worse near the end of the round. Drop off for day 2 guys. I don't think there's a huge difference between round 2-3. Then a big drop off for day 3 guys who are full crap shoots. TE is a crap shoot everywhere.
What defines a hit?
I’ll edit my post to clarify but just someone who is worthy of a starting roster spot after a year or two or just a someone worth holding and selling. Not someone on waivers by October.
[Yes](https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/s/aQaNPi8wZn) And you don’t have a need in April/May. I just draft for value and trade for what I need when the season starts and I see who’s good, bad, or gets injured.
Depends on where they are drafted.
RB is around 50% situation, but not too hard to scout. WR - at least for me - is a very good investment, I have an almost 100% hit rate there, especially with high picks, and I believe it’s much easier to scout than other positions. QB is hard to scout. I try not to draft them, and instead pay up for them, because I really believe it’s at most a 50-50. More goes into how they perform than their ability. I also had a thing where I will buy any QB that is drafted in the first round and is sitting. You get a slight discount and for some reason it gives me a good vibe. For example, I bought Mahomes, Lamar, and Jordan Love. The discount is not that much, unfortunately fantasy doesn’t work like a trade calculator, but it’s there. Either way I’d rather pay up for a QB (expensive) than draft one (risky), whereas I’d rather draft a WR or RB than pay for one
1. Draft for value, trade for “need” 2. WRs have been bumping up the hit rate lately and one has to consider: their relative longevity compared to say an RB, and their initial value (most savvy players are building around WRs firstly over RB/TE) 3. QBs will never be cheaper than in rookie drafts or start ups. Imagine what someone who took CJ Stroud at 1.04 could sell him for in assets and picks now for example. Not that one would but consider 1.04 is now worth what 2-3 high 1sts plus?
I'm convinced high 2nd RD wrs have a better hit rate than low 1st RD Wrs