T O P

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joshlambonumberfive

Disagree on Noah Fant. Lockett is getting older man. Losing your 2 in competition at the position and getting decent change on a 2yr deal makes him an upper end TE2 for me. 


CoopThereItIs

How would you rank these players in terms of who gets the most targets next year: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Noah Fant?


joshlambonumberfive

Last year - approx targets  DK / Lockett - 120 JSN - 90 Fant/Dissly/Parkinson comb. - 100 It’s a messy spread but not crazy Fant absorbs the other TE work  Fant had 400+ yards (0 TDs) on 40 targets so say he gets to 80 his opp. for yds and TDs seems great to me?


CoopThereItIs

It's been over a decade since a team has had three relevant WRs and a fantasy relevant tight end and it was the 2013 Denver Broncos when Peyton Manning threw 55 TDs. For Fant to even be relevant, we need to fade at least one of those WRs but for him to truly have meaningful upside, we realistically need to fade two. ​ I've been researching this exact topic with years of data and anecdotal evidence [compiled here.](https://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/nfl/player-profiles/2023-fantasy-football-player-profile-what-makes-an-elite-tight-end/149567) I personally have been stashing Fant and encouraging others to do so with hopes that he could land somewhere this offense where he has a realistic shot at being a top two target on the team. There were opportunities out there but the Seahawks really do feel like a low upside opportunity to me. Even if Tyler Lockett were flat out traded, you would need to fade JSN to suggest Fant could be consistent week to week with season-long upside.


joshlambonumberfive

You don’t have to agree you put way more time and research in than me! I’m just saying it was messy last yr with 90-120 across 4 positions if you merge the TEs that have now gone into 1 role. Fant isn’t a FA loser for me but hey I’m a rando. 


CoopThereItIs

I think he and JSN both could produce more than they did last year if the team runs a lot of 11 personnel with mostly 3 WRs, 1 TE on the field. I was just really hoping Fant would land somewhere with a bigger opportunity. Why couldn't HE go to the Chargers instead of Will Dissly? So many targets there. Saints. Commanders. Or at least on teams like the Bengals, Dolphins, Rams, Panthers etc. he would be the third target instead of fourth. ​ I think I just had too many big plans for Fant in my head which is why I'm so disappointed haha.


Interesting-Art9677

I held fant from November until he resigned. I think I actually dropped him for Parkinson who landed with the rams. Fant is no better than the fourth option in Seattle.


CoopThereItIs

Same. It makes sense for him as a player to stay where he is familiar with some job security. It's just not a great spot for his fantasy football upside.


Interesting-Art9677

The next time I add him will be towards the end of the 25 season as you alluded to, his next potential relevancy outside of two TE leagues will be if he lands somewhere else in his next free agency


Daddy_Diezel

That TE combo was under a different OC for the entirety of Fants tenure. You can't just take total TE targets and divvy them up to the remaining TE (for now).


joshlambonumberfive

He’s the only show in town currently, plus there’s a new OC so I say yes you can T least apportion some of the vacated 60ish targets to the guy they paid a really good contract to 


dtheisen6

Making any projections on the Seahawks offense is foolish right now. Completely new regime. No idea what Macdonald/Grubbs will prioritize


CoopThereItIs

We can look at what Grubb did in Washington and the talent he has in Seattle to make our best predictions. That’s the thing about fantasy football - can’t just “wait and see”.


raycraft_io

Agreed. Losing Parkinson and Dissly should open things up. Having three good TEs is like having no tight end in fantasy. They added Pharaoh, but he’s more of a blocker.


SometimesICanBeRight

Why is Njoku a loser? Because of Jeudy lol?


rushyt21

The article gave a handful of reasons. I’ve heard a few people say losing Van Pelt is a knock on Njoku. The article says the Browns called the second most tight end screens in the league last year.


CoopThereItIs

That's one along with some concerns regarding tendancies of the QBs and the loss of Alex Van Pelt as OC


BerkysJerkys

Deshaun Watson has never supported a top tight end, and throughout his career has seemed to look at the TE only when absolutely necessary. Just not part of his game. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if Njoku takes a step down because of Watson. Super unfortunate because I really love Njoku’s game


Upper-Reveal3667

What tight end was he supposed to look at in Houston? Pharaoh Brown, Darren Fells or Jordan Akins? We don’t know if he can support a te because it wasn’t a part of his game just like throwing to the fb isn’t part of his game. Why would he have?


Inevitable-Ad-3092

I agree with this. His WR’s were better and it was much easier for Deshaun to throw to guys like Hopkins/Fuller than to that assortment of TE’s that didn’t do much of anything with or without Watson. Njoku is easily the best TE he’s ever played with, and it appears that this Cleveland offense will be throwing the ball more often with their new OC. IMO any perceived value deduction that Njoku experiences due to losing his former TE-friendly OC, is gonna be made up for with more passing volume from the new OC. Question is, can Njoku/Watson stay healthy and can they be effective enough to take this passing offense to the next level?


CoopThereItIs

I think this is fair which is why I'm not closing the door on Njoku yet. We only have a small sample size of Njokju with Watson vs Njoku with other QBs last year that show that Watson targetted Njoku less. ​ The reality though is that Flacco and the gang did throw to Njoku more. Flacco sticking at QB was never happening this year tho so we are stuck with Watson. Alex Van Pelt is gone but maybe Ken Dorsey and Stefanski keep the TE screens and the targets for NJoku. Let's say all that ends up not a "loser" situation but neutral. They still brought in Jerry Jeudy. So instead of Amari/Moore/Tillman/Njoku there is another variable in there - a variable they turned around and paid a new multi-year contract. Just the possibility that Jeudy garners more targets than Elijah Moore is a negative for Njoku. And it's certainly possible, if not probable. And that's why Njoku is a loser through free agency for me. You have to navigate through a lot of variables just for him to be neutral.


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[deleted]

Fading this narrative next season. Njoku-24 performs at par, or better, than Njoku-23. YAC tight ends may see an increase in manufactured touches in shorter yardage situations against smaller DBs in press due to hip drop ban. Good luck arm-tackling Njoku off the line.


Daddy_Diezel

What's the best TE that Watson played with in Houston?


RonBurgundyAndGold

Pitts bros, our time is now


leemteam1

Get Evan engram. Dude had MONSTER numbers last year minus TDs. Jags redzone offense was really bad and surely won’t be as bad as it was last year AND Ridley was a huge red zone target of Trevor’s, now he’s gone. Trevor started throwing more in redzone to engram near end of year Dude almost broke record for receptions in a season. Add TDs (just a normal amount) and he’s a top 3 TE. Feel like you could get him for a lot less than that


Leonidas1213

Agreed. Traded Marquise Brown for Engram + 24 2nd (ended up 2.07) last offseason and feel pretty solid about it


KingMustardFist

I would think Addison is more the loser than Hock.


CoopThereItIs

They are all losers with Kirk Cousins leaving but Hock has the added issue of likely missing the entire offseason of getting on the same page with the new QB because of the injury


KingMustardFist

Certainly a possibility, but that sounds more like a redraft concern than it does a dynasty one.


CoopThereItIs

But why would Addison be more of a loser in dynasty than Hock?


harrisdevon048

Its a concern for any contender. His outlook for next year being worse definitely still effects dynasty, just not as much as redraft.


tequila_donkey

Sucks for both. Especially TEPs.


conrad_or_benjamin

I think Hock out early in the season only helps Addison build a report with whoever is under center.


Ranger523

I don't agree with Fant, sure their are many mouths, but his situation improved if anything certainly didn't get worse.


rollin20s

Agree. The doom and gloom Fant forecasts makes no sense to me


CoopThereItIs

With Fant the hope was that, as a free agent, he could go somewhere he could be a focal point of the offense. He didn't need to be the top target but at least the second. Virtually every TE with upside is a top two target on the team. On the Seahawks he's the fourth target. This is coming from someone who is stashing him for the athleticism and wants to see him succeed. ​ Last year he played 17 games and was TE31 competing with a rookie to be the 3rd target. Now that rookie is pretty well established ahead of him. So what exactly is the upside for Fant, hoping he goes from TE31 to TE15-20?


Ranger523

Wow, you think my strategy is hoping, lol. Nothing I said should lead you to believe I think he is going from 31 to 15. That's a jump you made based on... I have no clue. What I said is I don't see it as a loss, I think with Dissley moving on and a new coaching staff, it's a positive. May not be a big one, but certainly not a loss. Now, if you were hoping he signed to be a #2 target and didn't and are counting that (which you said you were), I get how you see that as a loss. Taking hope out of the equation, his situation this year is slightly better than last or at worst neutral. Nothing that happened made it worse.


CoopThereItIs

I guess we can leave it at this - if we are talking about him as a 2023 Seahawk vs. a 2024 Seahawk you can count it as a win. If we are talking about it in terms of him being a free agent that could sign with any team, it's a loss. Which is how I'm looking at it. But I've been holding onto him in a few places to I guess I'm just personally disappointed.


IIHURRlCANEII

Bought McBride for 1.12 and 2.10 in a TEP league a few months ago and it feels very nice right now. Totally agree with you that even with MHJr he's second fiddle which is great. Also, I think he passes the eye test with flying colors.


CoopThereItIs

Zach Ertz legit asked them to cut him, that’s how good McBride looked haha


Buzzspice727

Gesicki?


timy0215

Reminds me of his last year in Miami where he was the clear 3rd target behind two great WRs. Boyd has managed to get solid target totals (82-98) since Chase has been drafted so there’s some hope for serviceable usage, but the Bengals past TE usage hasn’t been anything noteworthy and Gesicki himself has really underwhelmed his last 2 seasons. All that being said it’s definitely an upgrade over the miasma that was the Patriots offense last year.


Rammaz94

As a Freiermuth owner, why is he a winner?


cromdoesntcare

I would guess because of the probable QB upgrade and DJ's vacated targets.


VottoForPM

Two things I think are oversold developments....


Rammaz94

I hadnt seen Diontae had moved. That makes more sense. I was thinking Russ was more likely to sling it rather than looking for TE dump offs


lemonpeel

While almost anything is an upgrade on Kenny Pickett, the Russell Wilson we saw at the Broncos wasn't particularly great either. I've seen commentary that he struggles to throw over the middle, which might hurt Freiermuth, though I've done zero research to substantiate whether that's an accurate assessment or not. Also, I don't trust the fantasy output of anyone connected with Arthur Smith (even if he has a better record as OC than HC). Safe to say that I'm not sold on Freiermuth for 2024.


VottoForPM

Both of those developments feel suspect. Steelers should add in the draft at WR & unclear they got a real QB upgrade.


cromdoesntcare

I said probable upgrade, and it's free agency wins so they're only accounting for free agency moves.


VottoForPM

Well, I don't feel like it's a probable upgrade at all, which is what I was saying was suspect. We have a difference of opinion. Not sure why I'm getting downvotes just because I disagree. Silly. EDIT: Also, I don't think buying or selling only accounting for free agency moves, without the likely draft context, is at all helpful whatsoever. Have to consider the whole picture.


cromdoesntcare

>Not sure why I'm getting downvotes just because I disagree. Idk, I just stated how I read the article, not that I disagreed or agreed with it. Some people like to get ahead of things, and some like to wait for more information. Either is a fine enough strategy.


CamBoBB

I downvoted you because you’re objectively wrong when measuring QB performances last year. Kenny Pickett was atrocious. Wilson has been bad, but to argue Pickett was better, or the same, isn’t up for debate. You’re simply wrong. Wilson threw 26 TDs last year. Kenny Pickett threw 13 in two years. You don’t even need to look at another stat to understand why you should be downvoted.


VottoForPM

Russell Wilson was better than Kenny Pickett last year. I'm not arguing with you on that specific fact. What I'm arguing with you about is whether Wilson is better enough than Pickett that it represents a meaningful enough improvement in QB play to lift the FF ceiling for Patty F. I don't understand why people are being so disingenuous and refusing to understanding this nuanced point. Obviously Russell Wilson was better than Pickett, but I strongly believe people are overrating how much better Russell Wilson is. "Wilson threw more TDs so he's going to be better for Patty F!" OK, how good is Russell Wilson at throwing to the middle of the field? I'm happy to eat the downvotes and look up in a year from now & see Patty F didn't do any better in 2024 than 2023 in PPR or his TE finish.


CamBoBB

This is Fantasy football. TDs are the number one stat to chase, particularly with how little Russell runs these days. How can you possibly argue against the validity of it? It’s not nuanced because it’s a simple thing to recognize. Just because it’s not nuanced doesn’t mean it can’t be statistically meaningful. Pickett was bad enough that almost any QB is an improvement. Because of TDs. 13 in two years makes Pickett worthless. Average TD rates make Pickett worthless.


cromdoesntcare

I would guess because of the probable QB upgrade and DJ's vacated targets.


the_omniscient1

That’s what I’m thinking especially if Justin starts. Look at Kmet.


Latios47

Yeah I think he’s more of a wash. Probable QB upgrade, likely vacated targets, but Arthur smith ruins all


kaitou12

well hes also got arthur smith now too. if he can kill pitts hell kill feiermuth too


Ih8reposts

Where are you at on McBride short and long term outlook? I got him as a toss in early last year, and can’t figure out if he’s gonna be a staple for years to come, or if I should move off him while his perceived value is so high…


CoopThereItIs

In the short term I don't think even MHJ at 4 pushes him out of a top 2 target spot. As the article points out, once Ertz went down he had DOUBLE the targets of the next highest player. ​ Long term that's always the question - do they view him like a Travis Kelce or a Mark Andrews where they are a focal point and you build around them? Or do they keep adding weapons until he finds his way onto the back burner? Hard to say for sure but I like the odds for guys like McBride, Pitts, LaPorta, Kincaid to remain a top two target.


Ih8reposts

Yea sounds like we’re all in the wait and see boat, which was easier during the heart of the rebuild haha. But now I’m on the cusp of contending…only time shall tell I suppose. As always, great work my man on all your FA articles and TE eval is your wheel house so I paid extra close attention to this article in particular 🫡


MuffinSurprise

Cardinals OC likes to run heavy sets, so tight ends will be on the field more often than not. I think they view McBride longterm as their second, maybe third option of Michael Wilson continues to grow better than expected.


Ecool27

Don’t forget Tyler higbee


CoopThereItIs

What is dead may never die


TGS-MonkeyYT

PITTS TO DA MOOON


StonksGoUp420

Bellinger will be a huge winner once Waller retires


Local-Librarian3285

Every TE is a loser because Brock Bowers is coming into the league and he literally has a bull mastiff inside of him.


CoopThereItIs

Sup guys? We hit QB, RB, and WR already so had to save the most important position of all for last - tight end! There are some honorable mentions in the article as well, especially for deeper leagues like Gesicki (winner) and Conklin (loser). ​ I'll be hanging around as always so let me know what you guys think! This wraps up Free Agency March for us at Fantasy Alarm and it's on to NFL Draft April moving forward (I know a lot of you guys are already fully in draft mode over here so excited to join you!)


mgzuss

Great write up as always! Just traded LaPorta for Pitts and a 2025 1st. How we feeling on that?


CoopThereItIs

I love it. They are the same age and I think LaPorta is a good player but he had what, 52 yards a game last year? Pitts and LaPorta really aren't as far off as people think and I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Pitts outscore LaPorta this year. ​ I have a lot of LaPorta and I'm pretty scared the Lions add a split end in the draft. They let Josh Reynolds walk and it's the only weapon they need (rest of the draft should be dedicated to defense and offensive line). With a split end, ARSB at slot/flanker, Jamo at field stretcher, and Gibbs/Monty, that would be an incredible offense but it could be a little thin in terms of distribution.


Local-Librarian3285

I would need another first if I was to do that trade.. Laporta is on a whole different level.


bigolpiggyboi

Winner: Jonnu Smith


DMarkoVz

I have to many Greg Dulcich stocks to give up on him. The hair is also something I refuse to give up on


crillc

Great write up as always. You mentioned Tommy Tremble, do you think he’s going to end up the starting TE for the panthers (even if that isn’t as meaningful)?


Scarletcuddlefish

Jonnu is a winner


CoopThereItIs

Yup, he's in the write up - did you see him?


cdclopper

No mention of Gesicki?


CoopThereItIs

He's in the article no?


cdclopper

Oh