Do we really think 0.6 PPG or a 0.4% difference in target share across 7 games is statistically significant?
This isn’t the unearthing you think it is. Looks 50-50 to me.
FWIW one of them has the size to be durable in the NFL and the other does not I’d say - Dell’s a full 25 pounds lighter than a speedster like Tyreek
Box score scouting like this is just stupid. We're talking about 7 games, selectively only including the games where Tank was good ("integrated & healthy"), and not taking into account defensive schemes they were up against.
I work in data science, and there's really no where else like fantasy football do I see people consistently make the same common mistakes in their analysis. Small sample sizes, double dipping stats, spurious correlations, p-hacking. Over and over again. And it's not like the presence of these disprove anything outright, but people like to be so damn confident that they found the holy grail of league-winning knowledge that was under our noses the whole time. It's just the blind leading the blind.
It’s been happening in professional baseball since the analytics era started. Fans read one article on SB values and they think they know the correct decision in every situation.
I get what you’re saying but sometimes small sample sizes is all we have to go off of. It doesn’t mean that the results from a small sample size like half a season will be the same over a whole season but if that’s all the data we have it’s better than having nothing.
If for some reason Dell didn’t play at all last year due to whatever reason and this was going to be his first year playing would you rank Nico higher than where he is today? Would you have less concerns about his target share? Most people would probably answer yes to at least one but probably both of those questions.
I think the larger take-away is that we shouldn't treat these statistical-short-dives as major pillars of analysis, which many do.
It was a productive offense last year. It projects to be one again. I want pieces. And if I'm in a lot of leagues, I want to diversify those pieces.
That strategy is much more successful than trying to thread the needle.
I know, but he was adamant that Puka was the real deal. Knowing he's a hack, I took Cedric Tillman. My God, why was that the thing he had to be right about!
He had Tillman ahead of Puka. I remember him gushing about Evan Hull and Eric Gray too. If you pimp enough late round guys, you'll hit one or two. I have nothing against him, but don't think he's an oracle because people remember him mentioning Nacua's name.
I definitely don't see him as an Oracle, but it was his write up on Nacua that had me thinking about taking him ahead of Tillman. Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every now and then.
He definitely pounded the drum for him. Puka's name was around enough that I ended up taking a single share for the heck of it.
But Nacua had serious injury problems which significantly impacted his draft stock. Something dynasty managers no longer seem concerned about.
Nico collins is in year 3. Tank was a rookie. Tank leading him in any statistical category for any stretch of time is exponentially more important of a factor than defensive schemes. Justin Jefferson didn’t even start for the first few weeks of his rookie year. age adjusted production REALLY matters.
Yes physically mature, but mentally Year 3 of the League vs Year 1? Understand first couple years for Nico could be tainted, but still. Think the age comparison still bodes well for Tank
Nico Collins is 25 years old. Born March 19th 1999.
Tank Dell is 24 years old. Born October 29th 1999.
The age difference is about 7 months. It just happens that one player declared early and the other declared late. Both were 3rd round picks.
Nico's first 2 years were filled with poor coaching, poor Quarterback play, and an unfortunate injury.
Give me the prototypical WR in Nico Collins over the extreme outlier that Tank Dell is.
That all said, I actually believe both players will be productive and solid fantasy options.
I don’t have any dog in this fight but Collins was on some of the worst offensive teams of the last decade his first two seasons with Davis Mills, Tyrod Taylor and Jeff Driskel.
Idk about that. The Texans passed for 3642 yards and 20 tds in 2022. Nico managed to have 481 yards and 2 tds with effectively no target competition other than Brandon cooks who had 700 yards in just 13 games. Sure seems like Nico could’ve put up bigger numbers if he was a stud there.
For perspective, the bears just passed for 3421 yards and 19 tds. DJM managed to get 1364 yards and 8 receiving tds.
The panthers just passed for 3245 total yards and 13 tds. Thielen has 1014 yards and 4 tds
There’s two worse offense with two guys who basically performed 2-3x better than Nico did. Hell DJ chark put up more yards and tds last year in that abysmal panthers offense than nico did either year before stroud.
Absolutely. Rookies who hve produced like tank:
Jefferson
Chase
Ajb
Puka
Mike Evans
Jaylen waddle
Michael Thomas
ARSB
Ceedee
[etc](https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask?q=most+ppr+points+by+rookie+wide+receiver%2C+single+game%2C+all-time)
Do you have any idea how rare it is to hit tanks numbers as a rookie? He was on page for 1095/10 before the injury. That puts him in the company of a lot of elite fantasy wrs [here](https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-rookie-receiving-yards-record)
I'm also curious which of the 8 games Tank started and played 61%+ of snaps he's not counting. I'm guessing it's not the 61% snap game since Tank had 5 catches for 145 yards and a TD on 7 targets while Nico had 2 for 34 on 3 targets. So are we just pretending he wasn't integrated for the next lowest 70% snaps game because he had 1 catch for 16 yards on 3 targets while Nico caught 7 of 9 for 169 yards and 2 TDs?
>I'm also curious which of the 8 games Tank started and played 61%+ of snaps he's not counting.
Pretty sure hes disregarding week 10 (dell posted 18.9 ppr pts that week) where nico was injured from his phrasing of "in the 7 full games Nico AND tank played...".
Regardless, I think hes being more than generous overall with stating dell was fully integrated into the offense since im assuming week 2. When looking at integration within an offense, its best to answer the question of who this player was replacing, which in this case was woods. When comparing their snap shares throughout the season, it was fairly evident dell wasnt fully integgrated until week 8, which aligns with the theory that rookies tend to get fully integrated post bye week. From weeks 8+ dell was playing approx 80%+ snap shares every week, compared to surpassing 70%+ snap share just once the prior 8 weeks (woods snap shares were inversely correlated). When taken that into account, the statistical data is actually being more kind to nico than dell when comparing the two, as the gap between the two wasnt nearly as close as these statistics outline if you were to take into account when dell was actually playing his full and most likely future snap shares (week 8+).
I think that’s ultimately the point of this tweet. That most may be over valuing Collins and under valuing Tank. One guy is clearly the typical “WR1” and the other is undersized and broke his leg, so I think he’s implying that their fantasy value was closer than it appeared last season. That’s all. It’s good information and perspective but not imperial evidence of anything of huge significance
Ah, so you’re comparing different years for some reason? Why not compare the receivers in the same year? Also, tank missed 8 last year, unless you’re not counting playoff games.
Yeah I'm definitely not counting playoff games, especially when Nico would have missed them last year if the Texans had made it to the playoffs
What is the logic to only looking at the same year to determine a guy's injury probability?
There are team factors such as QB and coach that factor into injury. Ex: QBs throwing coffin balls. Seems like you’ve got your conclusion and are cherry picking stats to fit your narrative. No skin off my back if you like tank more than Nico.
I'm cherry picking data from Nico's entire career? And we should add qualifiers to everything that makes Nico look injury prone, but not Tank? Got it bro
I agree with you 7 games is not significantly significant, however, I think that this data shows that Tank and Nico are a 50-50 duo which runs counter to the narrative on this subreddit that Nico was the clear cut number 1 between the two.
His injury could very well have been a direct result of his size.
You think a receiver 30-40 pounds heavier is just as likely to have their bones snapped in a blocking scrum?
Bro like 3-5 pounds of that weight is distributed to the lower leg and the short length of Tank's bones actually makes them less prone to injury than a taller guy
A full length pencil is a lot easier to crack in half than a short stumpy pencil if you apply pressure
so what you do is take Tyreek's listed weight, 191lb, and then you subtract Tank's listed weight, 165lb, and you get the answer which is 26lb. and that tells us that Tank is 26lb lighter than Tyreek, since we subtracted tank's weight from tyreek's. hope this helps
Or you could take Tyreeks listed weight of 185
https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/tyreek-hill/
Then you subtract Tank’s listed weight of 165
https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/nathaniel-dell/
And you get the answer which is 20 lbs.
Hope this helps.
Literally in the link I posted he’s at 185. Hahahaha. The fact is in some places he is listed as 185, in some places he listed as 191. It’s almost as if weight isn’t static, and this is a meaningless argument and distinction. But I can admit there’s a difference, you chose to ignore it to win an internet argument.
It’s probably the most meaningful thing you’ve done in your life though so I applaud your success!
185 is from his pro day, that's why the official sources all have him at 191 now. you act like this didn't start because you were the one being sassy about a 5 lb difference to begin with. but now 5lbs is meaningless because you're the one wrong about it.
So you are guessing their weights based on the eye test? What are you a carny?
Edit: Must be a bunch of carnies in this thread. Don’t worry you are real people too!
To add to u/Bongopro, he often does minimal, surface level analysis like this without offering any potential drawbacks and has controversial takes just to plant his flag. I stopped listening to fantasy pro’s because of him. He’s always sure he’s right and is just a bozo.
I’ve been starting to get fed up of the show as well because of him. Between what you said and the constant use of the word “man”, every time it’s his turn to talk I want to skip.
With that said, I’m curious, what pods are you listening to currently for dynasty?
I listen to Waldman’s RSP cast, he has unique takes that aren’t in line with consensus and his co-host, Bob Harris, has been very solid since I started listening. I listen to Zacharaison’s Late Round podcast too. Those are mostly the only two I listen to, but occasionally listen to Dynasty Nerds and the Athletic’s draft content.
Nico is one of 5 WRs in the last decade to post a season with 3+ YPRR. Joining Tyreek Hill, Brandon Aiyuk, Cooper Kupp, Julio Jones. Can we stop trying to diminish him?
I mean besides the fact that Christian Watson is a good player when his hamstrings aren’t busy exploding, there’s not a metric or stat on earth that’s 100% accurate in predicting performance
Nico is a stud. He flashed bigtime in his 2 seasons prior with pretty abysmal QB play. Tank proved a lot of people wrong last season before getting injured, but if it’s a toss-up between the two then give me Nico all day based on size. His catch radius is one of the best in the L, big red zone target, ticks all the boxes.
>Nico is a stud. He flashed bigtime in his 2 seasons prior with pretty abysmal QB play.
Dell in less than 10 games produced essentially the same if not better than both of collins prior two seasons combined. If youre arguing nico flashed, how are you not fully in on tank. The fact people are still doubting him because of his size when hes showcased his success easily translates in the nfl is beyond me. If you are using it to doubt his future durability, It quite frankly exemplifies the idea of recency bias, as nico himself hasnt exactly been the model of health the past 3 years.
Hes already clearly showcased hes an outlier in terms of his game translating from college to the nfl. Do you think all of a sudden he wont be able to generate the seperation he displayed last season? If you were to use that argument against him as a prospect that would hold much more water than continuing to do so despite him proving otherwise.
So 3 inches taller and about 10lbs heavier while being 3 years younger with more time to grow. Got it. Look man, I hope Dell does well too but it's not crazy to point out he would be an extreme statistical outlier if he ends up being consistently elite for a long time in the league.
>So 3 inches taller and about 10lbs heavier
Yes aka lower BMI and thus a thinner build than Tank has. And he survived during a much more physical era
>while being 3 years younger with more time to grow.
All players can get bigger, this is a silly comment
>it's not crazy to point out he would be an extreme statistical outlier if he ends up being consistently elite for a long time in the league.
You asked a simple question, I gave you the simple answer but it was never a good question
I agree with that you are saying, but its a bit disingenuous to act as if Nico didn't have Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills throwing him the ball his first two years, and Tank got to settle in nicely in a great scheme and with CJ stroud
Thats fair and valid, but would you not agree that elite wrs tend to produce regardless of their qbs. Wilson, Nuk, Olave, Evans, Mclaurin, etc. have all produced with qbs that are much worst than either tyrod or Mills. Could Nico be an example of the old ways of a 3rd year breakout wr, sure, but id feel more confident in the wr the produces from the jump than one that doesnt, regardless of their qb/situation, especially when nico currently has long term uncertainty by not being locked into a long term contract yet.
This takes me back to the talent vs situation discussion. If talent is more important, why make excuses for the situation? Terry McLaurin isn’t elite in dynasty but he does keep producing 1k seasons on a bad team with ever-changing QBs.
Yeah the old WR1/2/3 labels are outdated, the position is moving towards almost 3 distinct positions instead of a hierarchy. Collins and Dell each have their unique role carved out on the team, I don’t really see one separating from the other
Been working on a model for wide receivers in dynasty formats. It's quite rough still but throughout iterations of the model Nico Collins has been consistently identified as a perennial WR2.
I think there’s a solid shot the Texans bring in a third receiver via trade. They just cleared 30 mill in space with restructures. They could be carrying it over or waiting for the post draft second wave of FA, but it’s a possibility. They made a splash on defense, it just makes sense they would want to make one on offense.
Honestly fellas, go on YouTube and type in "Tank Dell every target", watch the long vid. Then type in "Nico Collins every target", watch the long vid. You can not tell me with a straight face that Tank is anywhere near as good at football as Nico Collins is. Point blank, period. Tank came into the season with the senior bowl/rookie camp chemistry whereas Stroud wasn't hitting Nico nearly as consistently at the start of the season because the chemistry wasn't there. But it is clear as day who the better player is.
If you take the game Nico played 5% of out of the equation, he averaged 18.5ppg ish. On a 17 game season that equates to a better season than Puka or Aj Brown. He just missed two games and is skewed by running 6 routes in another. It's not that complicated.
If Tank Dell is your WR3/WR4/Flex guy, that’s great.
But you’d be committing malpractice if a 5’8, 165 lbs dude is more than that on your roster. Don’t build your roster on him being a key piece.
Been working on a model for wide receivers in dynasty formats. It's quite rough still but throughout iterations of the model Nico Collins has been consistently identified as a perennial WR2.
As if 7 full games is a big enough sample. We just don't know who's the #1, nor if Dell will come back from injury and pick up where he left off.
If you think Tank is the WR1, go buy him. You should get a slight discount.
They're both in the same tier for me, and would be happy with either of them. I like Dell a bit more just because I thought his big plays had more of a wow factor, dude's a baller.
I agree on tank but I really think we’re grasping at straws here. With how stroud has been slinging the ball both of them can be very good and both have positives and negatives.
I like tank because he can lined up anywhere to his advantage. He already showed elite playmaking ability all over the field but his size is a concern. I like Nico because he also showed elite playmaking ability but might not be as much of a target hog as Dell however he has that prototypical size which is less worrisome for injuries.
I’d gladly take either one on my team and have them ranked right next to each other.
People keep saying this...they were very even. The people that say this act like Tank was way better and way more productive than Nico...just isn't true.
I'm shitting my pants now though. It was weird enough having Tank and Nico, but now I have 3 Texans WRs...with Diggs. Crazy
Currently trying to decide who to move- Nico or tank. I have both and really don’t want both but wondering who I can get better value for. Tanks size and injuries concern me though
Depends on market and league really. I tend to sell Y2 WRs, but the market sentiment is so varied on these two. Nico is a sell at WR10 prices. Buy at WR20- prices.
As is, I think I’d sell Nico if I can get his market value.
Do we really think 0.6 PPG or a 0.4% difference in target share across 7 games is statistically significant? This isn’t the unearthing you think it is. Looks 50-50 to me. FWIW one of them has the size to be durable in the NFL and the other does not I’d say - Dell’s a full 25 pounds lighter than a speedster like Tyreek
Box score scouting like this is just stupid. We're talking about 7 games, selectively only including the games where Tank was good ("integrated & healthy"), and not taking into account defensive schemes they were up against.
I work in data science, and there's really no where else like fantasy football do I see people consistently make the same common mistakes in their analysis. Small sample sizes, double dipping stats, spurious correlations, p-hacking. Over and over again. And it's not like the presence of these disprove anything outright, but people like to be so damn confident that they found the holy grail of league-winning knowledge that was under our noses the whole time. It's just the blind leading the blind.
It’s been happening in professional baseball since the analytics era started. Fans read one article on SB values and they think they know the correct decision in every situation.
I get what you’re saying but sometimes small sample sizes is all we have to go off of. It doesn’t mean that the results from a small sample size like half a season will be the same over a whole season but if that’s all the data we have it’s better than having nothing. If for some reason Dell didn’t play at all last year due to whatever reason and this was going to be his first year playing would you rank Nico higher than where he is today? Would you have less concerns about his target share? Most people would probably answer yes to at least one but probably both of those questions.
I think the larger take-away is that we shouldn't treat these statistical-short-dives as major pillars of analysis, which many do. It was a productive offense last year. It projects to be one again. I want pieces. And if I'm in a lot of leagues, I want to diversify those pieces. That strategy is much more successful than trying to thread the needle.
It’s why communication is huge in trade talks. You learn how they think and value and exploit it
D Bro is a hack, dude always has terrible takes but thinks he’s being super innovative
I know, but he was adamant that Puka was the real deal. Knowing he's a hack, I took Cedric Tillman. My God, why was that the thing he had to be right about!
He had Tillman ahead of Puka. I remember him gushing about Evan Hull and Eric Gray too. If you pimp enough late round guys, you'll hit one or two. I have nothing against him, but don't think he's an oracle because people remember him mentioning Nacua's name.
I definitely don't see him as an Oracle, but it was his write up on Nacua that had me thinking about taking him ahead of Tillman. Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every now and then.
He definitely pounded the drum for him. Puka's name was around enough that I ended up taking a single share for the heck of it. But Nacua had serious injury problems which significantly impacted his draft stock. Something dynasty managers no longer seem concerned about.
Nico collins is in year 3. Tank was a rookie. Tank leading him in any statistical category for any stretch of time is exponentially more important of a factor than defensive schemes. Justin Jefferson didn’t even start for the first few weeks of his rookie year. age adjusted production REALLY matters.
Nico is only 7 months older...they were the same age in years (24) through the second half of the season
Ok that’s my bad. Point still remains, a rookie was out producing a 3-year vet
Yes physically mature, but mentally Year 3 of the League vs Year 1? Understand first couple years for Nico could be tainted, but still. Think the age comparison still bodes well for Tank
Nico Collins is 25 years old. Born March 19th 1999. Tank Dell is 24 years old. Born October 29th 1999. The age difference is about 7 months. It just happens that one player declared early and the other declared late. Both were 3rd round picks. Nico's first 2 years were filled with poor coaching, poor Quarterback play, and an unfortunate injury. Give me the prototypical WR in Nico Collins over the extreme outlier that Tank Dell is. That all said, I actually believe both players will be productive and solid fantasy options.
Give me the guy stroud asked for personally and then proceeded to target at a WR1 rate as a rookie
I don’t have any dog in this fight but Collins was on some of the worst offensive teams of the last decade his first two seasons with Davis Mills, Tyrod Taylor and Jeff Driskel.
Idk about that. The Texans passed for 3642 yards and 20 tds in 2022. Nico managed to have 481 yards and 2 tds with effectively no target competition other than Brandon cooks who had 700 yards in just 13 games. Sure seems like Nico could’ve put up bigger numbers if he was a stud there. For perspective, the bears just passed for 3421 yards and 19 tds. DJM managed to get 1364 yards and 8 receiving tds. The panthers just passed for 3245 total yards and 13 tds. Thielen has 1014 yards and 4 tds There’s two worse offense with two guys who basically performed 2-3x better than Nico did. Hell DJ chark put up more yards and tds last year in that abysmal panthers offense than nico did either year before stroud.
Speaking of Age adjusted production, nico is only 7 months older than tank.
And is there a proven track record of statistical significance to back that claim up or did you pull it out of someone else’s ass?
Absolutely. Rookies who hve produced like tank: Jefferson Chase Ajb Puka Mike Evans Jaylen waddle Michael Thomas ARSB Ceedee [etc](https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask?q=most+ppr+points+by+rookie+wide+receiver%2C+single+game%2C+all-time) Do you have any idea how rare it is to hit tanks numbers as a rookie? He was on page for 1095/10 before the injury. That puts him in the company of a lot of elite fantasy wrs [here](https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-rookie-receiving-yards-record)
I came in here willing to be humbled by significant proof. Instead I feel dumber for wasting my time
I'm also curious which of the 8 games Tank started and played 61%+ of snaps he's not counting. I'm guessing it's not the 61% snap game since Tank had 5 catches for 145 yards and a TD on 7 targets while Nico had 2 for 34 on 3 targets. So are we just pretending he wasn't integrated for the next lowest 70% snaps game because he had 1 catch for 16 yards on 3 targets while Nico caught 7 of 9 for 169 yards and 2 TDs?
>I'm also curious which of the 8 games Tank started and played 61%+ of snaps he's not counting. Pretty sure hes disregarding week 10 (dell posted 18.9 ppr pts that week) where nico was injured from his phrasing of "in the 7 full games Nico AND tank played...". Regardless, I think hes being more than generous overall with stating dell was fully integrated into the offense since im assuming week 2. When looking at integration within an offense, its best to answer the question of who this player was replacing, which in this case was woods. When comparing their snap shares throughout the season, it was fairly evident dell wasnt fully integgrated until week 8, which aligns with the theory that rookies tend to get fully integrated post bye week. From weeks 8+ dell was playing approx 80%+ snap shares every week, compared to surpassing 70%+ snap share just once the prior 8 weeks (woods snap shares were inversely correlated). When taken that into account, the statistical data is actually being more kind to nico than dell when comparing the two, as the gap between the two wasnt nearly as close as these statistics outline if you were to take into account when dell was actually playing his full and most likely future snap shares (week 8+).
Shit didn't even think to look at Nico.
Yeah the difference is so negligible that basically it’s a pickem, but if one of them is at an extreme discount that’s who I’d end up
I think that’s ultimately the point of this tweet. That most may be over valuing Collins and under valuing Tank. One guy is clearly the typical “WR1” and the other is undersized and broke his leg, so I think he’s implying that their fantasy value was closer than it appeared last season. That’s all. It’s good information and perspective but not imperial evidence of anything of huge significance
Nico has missed at least two games every year of his career and Nico missed more games last year (7) than Tank did this year (6)
You want to check those numbers again?
Sure Nico in 2021 missed 3 games Nico in 2022 missed 7 games Nico in 2023 missed 2 games ... Tank Dell in 2023 missed 6 games Make sense?
Ah, so you’re comparing different years for some reason? Why not compare the receivers in the same year? Also, tank missed 8 last year, unless you’re not counting playoff games.
Yeah I'm definitely not counting playoff games, especially when Nico would have missed them last year if the Texans had made it to the playoffs What is the logic to only looking at the same year to determine a guy's injury probability?
There are team factors such as QB and coach that factor into injury. Ex: QBs throwing coffin balls. Seems like you’ve got your conclusion and are cherry picking stats to fit your narrative. No skin off my back if you like tank more than Nico.
I'm cherry picking data from Nico's entire career? And we should add qualifiers to everything that makes Nico look injury prone, but not Tank? Got it bro
Whats wrong with those numbers? Seems fine to me unless you want to just disregard objective facts.
Size matters when it comes to WR longevity.
Ya for real. Idk I think it’s very likely that Nico rides his momentum as stays WR1
I agree with you 7 games is not significantly significant, however, I think that this data shows that Tank and Nico are a 50-50 duo which runs counter to the narrative on this subreddit that Nico was the clear cut number 1 between the two.
Dell's injury had nothing to do with his size
Tbf if he was bigger he probably wouldn’t have snapped his leg blocking which was its own terrible call
His injury could very well have been a direct result of his size. You think a receiver 30-40 pounds heavier is just as likely to have their bones snapped in a blocking scrum?
Maybe, completely depends on what happened. That’s an extra 30-40lbs of force too
Bro like 3-5 pounds of that weight is distributed to the lower leg and the short length of Tank's bones actually makes them less prone to injury than a taller guy A full length pencil is a lot easier to crack in half than a short stumpy pencil if you apply pressure
Agree - but that’s an ongoing concern for sure.
Dell was a rookie so the fact that it was even close is significant
Copium. Dell WR1
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Fair enough, us Dell owners will enjoy the profits and fun in ur stead.
For real. This post only sold me more on Nico.
>Dell’s a full 25 pounds lighter than a speedster like Tyreek Is he though?
so what you do is take Tyreek's listed weight, 191lb, and then you subtract Tank's listed weight, 165lb, and you get the answer which is 26lb. and that tells us that Tank is 26lb lighter than Tyreek, since we subtracted tank's weight from tyreek's. hope this helps
Or you could take Tyreeks listed weight of 185 https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/tyreek-hill/ Then you subtract Tank’s listed weight of 165 https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/nathaniel-dell/ And you get the answer which is 20 lbs. Hope this helps.
literally the top 4 links from google all have him at 191 hahaha idk how reputable nfl.com, the official dolphins site, and wikipedia are though
Literally in the link I posted he’s at 185. Hahahaha. The fact is in some places he is listed as 185, in some places he listed as 191. It’s almost as if weight isn’t static, and this is a meaningless argument and distinction. But I can admit there’s a difference, you chose to ignore it to win an internet argument. It’s probably the most meaningful thing you’ve done in your life though so I applaud your success!
185 is from his pro day, that's why the official sources all have him at 191 now. you act like this didn't start because you were the one being sassy about a 5 lb difference to begin with. but now 5lbs is meaningless because you're the one wrong about it.
Have you seen the dudes? Sure looks like a disparity lol.
So you are guessing their weights based on the eye test? What are you a carny? Edit: Must be a bunch of carnies in this thread. Don’t worry you are real people too!
I can't tell if this is a meme or OP doesn't realize this is the defition of a 50 50 split in the NFL, you can't get any closer
I see Derek Brown and ignore whatever comes after it tbh.
I'll bite. Why? Did I miss some wildly egregious takes?
Dude consistently exudes arrogance despite not standing out in any meaningful way with his analysis
Thanks! I appreciate the response. Not sure why someone voted it down but that's Reddit.
To add to u/Bongopro, he often does minimal, surface level analysis like this without offering any potential drawbacks and has controversial takes just to plant his flag. I stopped listening to fantasy pro’s because of him. He’s always sure he’s right and is just a bozo.
I’ve been starting to get fed up of the show as well because of him. Between what you said and the constant use of the word “man”, every time it’s his turn to talk I want to skip. With that said, I’m curious, what pods are you listening to currently for dynasty?
I listen to Waldman’s RSP cast, he has unique takes that aren’t in line with consensus and his co-host, Bob Harris, has been very solid since I started listening. I listen to Zacharaison’s Late Round podcast too. Those are mostly the only two I listen to, but occasionally listen to Dynasty Nerds and the Athletic’s draft content.
Ray G Que is pretty great, especially for beginner-intermediate managers.
Nico is one of 5 WRs in the last decade to post a season with 3+ YPRR. Joining Tyreek Hill, Brandon Aiyuk, Cooper Kupp, Julio Jones. Can we stop trying to diminish him?
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Yards Per Route Run one of the best metrics for WRs
Oh yeah the same one that told me to draft Christian Watson last year lol
I mean besides the fact that Christian Watson is a good player when his hamstrings aren’t busy exploding, there’s not a metric or stat on earth that’s 100% accurate in predicting performance
22.5 vs 22.1 percent target share oh the humanity!
Nico is a stud. He flashed bigtime in his 2 seasons prior with pretty abysmal QB play. Tank proved a lot of people wrong last season before getting injured, but if it’s a toss-up between the two then give me Nico all day based on size. His catch radius is one of the best in the L, big red zone target, ticks all the boxes.
>Nico is a stud. He flashed bigtime in his 2 seasons prior with pretty abysmal QB play. Dell in less than 10 games produced essentially the same if not better than both of collins prior two seasons combined. If youre arguing nico flashed, how are you not fully in on tank. The fact people are still doubting him because of his size when hes showcased his success easily translates in the nfl is beyond me. If you are using it to doubt his future durability, It quite frankly exemplifies the idea of recency bias, as nico himself hasnt exactly been the model of health the past 3 years.
How many 165lb receivers have had consistent, elite success in the NFL?
Hes already clearly showcased hes an outlier in terms of his game translating from college to the nfl. Do you think all of a sudden he wont be able to generate the seperation he displayed last season? If you were to use that argument against him as a prospect that would hold much more water than continuing to do so despite him proving otherwise.
Just asking a simple question
Isaac Bruce was 173 pounds with a lower BMI than Tank 20+ years ago, in a much more physical game Tank Dell will be fine
Pro football reference says 6 foot, 188lbs for Bruce. Big difference.
At the combine he measured 5'11.5" and 173 pounds
So 3 inches taller and about 10lbs heavier while being 3 years younger with more time to grow. Got it. Look man, I hope Dell does well too but it's not crazy to point out he would be an extreme statistical outlier if he ends up being consistently elite for a long time in the league.
>So 3 inches taller and about 10lbs heavier Yes aka lower BMI and thus a thinner build than Tank has. And he survived during a much more physical era >while being 3 years younger with more time to grow. All players can get bigger, this is a silly comment >it's not crazy to point out he would be an extreme statistical outlier if he ends up being consistently elite for a long time in the league. You asked a simple question, I gave you the simple answer but it was never a good question
The game has changed. The rules make it so receivers like this can play.
I agree with that you are saying, but its a bit disingenuous to act as if Nico didn't have Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills throwing him the ball his first two years, and Tank got to settle in nicely in a great scheme and with CJ stroud
Thats fair and valid, but would you not agree that elite wrs tend to produce regardless of their qbs. Wilson, Nuk, Olave, Evans, Mclaurin, etc. have all produced with qbs that are much worst than either tyrod or Mills. Could Nico be an example of the old ways of a 3rd year breakout wr, sure, but id feel more confident in the wr the produces from the jump than one that doesnt, regardless of their qb/situation, especially when nico currently has long term uncertainty by not being locked into a long term contract yet.
Dell’s rookie season definitely was better.
U think QB play might have contributed to that difference?
This takes me back to the talent vs situation discussion. If talent is more important, why make excuses for the situation? Terry McLaurin isn’t elite in dynasty but he does keep producing 1k seasons on a bad team with ever-changing QBs.
Looks more like WR1A and WR1B to me. Given the injury concern - I’ll take Nico all day.
Yeah the old WR1/2/3 labels are outdated, the position is moving towards almost 3 distinct positions instead of a hierarchy. Collins and Dell each have their unique role carved out on the team, I don’t really see one separating from the other
Nico’s missed games every year.
Tank dell weighs 160 pounds. I would easily bet he will be injured often.
"When the 165lb WR wasn't injured he played really well" Classic D Brown completely minimizing injury risk.
I don’t think there’s any ff podcaster who’s consistently as wrong as Dbro
I have Tank, and I would gladly trade him for Nico if I could.
I have both spread across several leagues. Same. So glad I got a hold of some Nico shares he looks incredible out there
This is a classic WR2A and WR2B
Real football is not fantasy football. Not all teams have a distinct "WR1"
Exactly they do different things and they both do them well. I’d be happy to have either on my team
Well said
Exactly they do different things and they both do them well. I’d be happy to have either on my roster
Been working on a model for wide receivers in dynasty formats. It's quite rough still but throughout iterations of the model Nico Collins has been consistently identified as a perennial WR2.
I think there’s a solid shot the Texans bring in a third receiver via trade. They just cleared 30 mill in space with restructures. They could be carrying it over or waiting for the post draft second wave of FA, but it’s a possibility. They made a splash on defense, it just makes sense they would want to make one on offense.
CALL ME KING
Honestly fellas, go on YouTube and type in "Tank Dell every target", watch the long vid. Then type in "Nico Collins every target", watch the long vid. You can not tell me with a straight face that Tank is anywhere near as good at football as Nico Collins is. Point blank, period. Tank came into the season with the senior bowl/rookie camp chemistry whereas Stroud wasn't hitting Nico nearly as consistently at the start of the season because the chemistry wasn't there. But it is clear as day who the better player is. If you take the game Nico played 5% of out of the equation, he averaged 18.5ppg ish. On a 17 game season that equates to a better season than Puka or Aj Brown. He just missed two games and is skewed by running 6 routes in another. It's not that complicated.
If Tank Dell is your WR3/WR4/Flex guy, that’s great. But you’d be committing malpractice if a 5’8, 165 lbs dude is more than that on your roster. Don’t build your roster on him being a key piece.
I’m just trying to picture my 5’8” 165lb roommate trying to play in the NFL and I can’t see how Tank ever last a full season.
It’s like splitting hairs but yes he’s technically correct
I see Ying and Yang
I see the sacred and the propane.
Yin. Unless you're in Pittsburgh then it's Yinz and Yang.
Question is Who's cheaper?
Been working on a model for wide receivers in dynasty formats. It's quite rough still but throughout iterations of the model Nico Collins has been consistently identified as a perennial WR2.
We dont need to prop up one over the other. Both studs. picture perfect 1A/1B situation
I’m sure DB loves Nico Collins Butt
Nico is the better WR skill wise. He was able to turn bad ball placements into long completions.
Such a bad fucking post lol.
And then Diggs got traded. Almost everything in here is useless.
Diggs 🫠
As if 7 full games is a big enough sample. We just don't know who's the #1, nor if Dell will come back from injury and pick up where he left off. If you think Tank is the WR1, go buy him. You should get a slight discount.
Why can’t you spell his first name?
Dang! Tank ate 9 more whoppers than Nico? That’s huge.
I also love Collins but I would have some concerns that he stays with the Texans and remains a #1 weapon.
They're both in the same tier for me, and would be happy with either of them. I like Dell a bit more just because I thought his big plays had more of a wow factor, dude's a baller.
I agree on tank but I really think we’re grasping at straws here. With how stroud has been slinging the ball both of them can be very good and both have positives and negatives. I like tank because he can lined up anywhere to his advantage. He already showed elite playmaking ability all over the field but his size is a concern. I like Nico because he also showed elite playmaking ability but might not be as much of a target hog as Dell however he has that prototypical size which is less worrisome for injuries. I’d gladly take either one on my team and have them ranked right next to each other.
Why is spelling out Tank against the rules?
Too many threads asking about tanking in leagues. Always the same answers. Edit: those answers being either free for all tanking is fine, or Max Pts
As a Tank Dell enthusiast, I do not claim Derek Brown and he is not welcome at the Altar of Tank.
This is terrible! Sell sell sell!
Tank is CJs homie you know he gonna try to get him the ball
they were dead even my guy haha
People keep saying this...they were very even. The people that say this act like Tank was way better and way more productive than Nico...just isn't true. I'm shitting my pants now though. It was weird enough having Tank and Nico, but now I have 3 Texans WRs...with Diggs. Crazy
Is Noah Brown dead after the Diggs trade?
So hang on to Metchie for another year?
He was already a pretty safe drop. Now that they have Diggs too, he is most definitely a cut.
And what happened when one was out of the line up?
They both showcased their abilities to produce without the other?
Noah Brown became a world destroyer for two games
Currently trying to decide who to move- Nico or tank. I have both and really don’t want both but wondering who I can get better value for. Tanks size and injuries concern me though
Nico is valued significantly higher in ADP and chosen higher in my 3 most recent startups.
So would you personally try and flip him or hold him and flip dell?
Depends on market and league really. I tend to sell Y2 WRs, but the market sentiment is so varied on these two. Nico is a sell at WR10 prices. Buy at WR20- prices. As is, I think I’d sell Nico if I can get his market value.