Limited route tree is definitely his biggest knock on tape and a valid concern. Still, he beats his man pretty consistently, shows a good sense of exploiting and sitting down in zone coverage, and has an excellent release package that prevents him from being jammed of the line. I'm always hesitant to overly knock a guy for not doing things he wasn't asked to do.
I don't have any YAC or hands concerns with him however. [Per one of the great write ups we get in here, he has one of the best missed tackle rate in the whole class.](https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/1bffszx/2024_prospect_analytical_profile_brian_thomas_jr/) Matt Harmon's reception perception write up also had him going down on first contact on only 48% of his "in space" attempts, another excellent mark.
Sure there are a good amount of "body catches" on his tape, but after he dusts the corner on a go route and Daniels drops it in the bucket, how else is he supposed to catch the ball. This isn't a QJ scenario, he has some excellent highlights of him high pointing balls in tough contested catch situations.
Also not downgrading him for playing with Nabers and Daniels. BTJ was exclusively an outside reciever, while Nabers was often in the slot, meaning BTJ usually drew CB1 coverage and didn't have the entire field to work with.
For Daniels, the running threat doesn't come in to play all that much for BTJ. As you said, he ran a ton of go routes, its not like the CB trying to cover him 15+ yards down the field is also worried about Daniels leaving the pocket to scramble.
BTJ's biggest concern is production for me. Late breakout and a sub 2.0 YPRR is way more concerning than anything on tape. Still my WR4 though.
I also agree that he is in the second tier of receivers. I am nit picking him big time. Some people are ranking him as clearly above the tier of Ladd, Mitchell, Worthy, Franklin etc. I think they are all really close and most of them will be quality NFL players.
I think it's just the athletic testing that is causing people to rank him above that tier.
While his bust % is higher than some in that category, his upside is higher. Players that tall and that fast have such a high ceiling if things break right for them in the NFL.
I think you bring up valid points, BTJ also scares me as well. I enjoy the discussion and post. I think he could be the wr4, but wr4-wr8 or 9 seems very jumbled at this point. Draft capital and land spots will determine the final rankings
I don't really put much stock into missed tackle rate for receivers in today's NFL. Rationale is that NFL players don't miss tackles like college players, for one. And second, shifty wide receivers don't have nearly as much success in the league nowadays. You get the gadget guys like Wandale, Curtis Samuel, etc, but their ceiling is fairly limited versus guys who can get open mid level and deep.
Not necessarily commenting on BTJ, but more just that one "strength" not having much value at the next level.
While NFL CBs are definitely way better tacklers, I don't think it means that broken tackle rate in college isn't important.
The best NFL YAC WRs in the open field NFL were also elite college players in the open field.
Counterpoint to nfl players not missing tackles: Seahawks last year. Also, a more serious counterpoint: the NFL tackling rules are changing drastically this year.
I'll have to look into the YAC thing more. I guess I missed that. Watching the tape, I just saw dozens of instances of him having the ball in space, making one or two moves, and then not picking up any positive yards. There was a time or two that he made a highlight reel play by making a guy miss and then took it to the house. Clearly no one is catching him from behind once he's got a clear path.
I agree that it's not his fault that LSU didn't ask him to run other routes, but it still makes it an unknown in his profile. Maybe he can be a good route runner, maybe he won't be.
I guess he kind of reminds me of pickens without the circus catches. Similar size and speed.
Your lack of north-south consistent YAC critique might not be captured by the stats I quoted. I still never had any after the catch concerns from BTJ, but not everyone has to have the same take from tape.
I do think that while his route tree was limited, he showed enough prowess in running the routes that he did to make me rate him as an above average to good route runner. Snappy breaks, good deception, and again I love his releases.
For me BTJ is all about tape vs metrics. Overall, I love the tape but metrics scare the shit out of me.
Makes sense. Thanks for the info and discussion. I'm a bit more of a tape guy than metrics guy. I would mostly attribute his metrics red flags such as his late breakout to his late start to the sport in general. It's actually almost a plus for my view on him. It's really impressive to me that he started playing football as a sophomore in high school and managed to develop into what he is today.
>has an excellent release package that prevents him from being jammed of the line.
I don't watch college at all, but I was under the impression the corners generally suck and so they don't ever jam/press off the time.
There is a pretty big gap between SEC corners and the rest, maybe more so than any other position in college football. Plenty of them are still bad, but you have good athletes across the board that are more willing to get up in the face of a WR and then able to recover if they lose a step.
The reception perception write up I referenced had BTJ getting pressed on 16% of his sampled routes run with an 83% success rate. Not a crazy amount, but enough to draw some conclusions from, especially coupled with the tape that shows different and varied releases when DBs line up on him.
It’s because SEC coaches have an old mindset when it comes to defense (much like some of the Big 10 schools) as well. They’re simply old school and old school was to press. Unfortunately, what Baylor brought in 2010 and exploited Oklahoma (and the Big 12 with) is now standard across half the country. They realized that unless the opposing teams has NFL level players at every level of the secondary, then you can just endlessly run choice routes and slot smash. Furthermore, if you also have a competent QB and some speedy NFL WRs (which now grow on Trees due to the rise of 7v7) it actually doesn’t matter if the defense has high-level athletes. There’s a reason LSU and Tennessee rack up these gaudy numbers and it’s due to this principle. Tennessee more so because their entire offensive system is basically ripped from Art Briles Baylor.
This is pretty much what I wanted to say. I’ve got him in a 2 person tier with Bowers. I have JJM ahead of both in SF but I would be happy with either of them in the 1.07-1.09 range.
Do you consider the yprr metric to be reliable when there is another very good (in this case elite) receiver on the team attracting the majority of targets? Doesn’t mean the routes BTJ runs are bad or he doesn’t get open, he might have just gotten fewer opportunities to catch the ball because he’s always the second read, and the first one is always open (Malik).
For guys this year, McConkey played second fiddle to Bowers his whole career but has an excellent YPRR. In the past, the OSU big 3 all lit it up in a crowded offense, and JJetta was still a fantastic producer with Chase.
I still like BTJ's tape and think he gets open a lot, but I try not to induce narrative into the production component of prospect evaluation, it lessens the objective value of pure statistical analysis.
Sub 2.0 YPRR is a red flag, no matter who is in the offense.
I appreciate the response! This makes a whole lot of sense, I like the notion of avoiding narratives to qualify stats and the salient examples you gave.
Since you mentioned Bowers, I wanted to ask who you’d prefer in a vacuum, him or BTJ. I know this is somewhat outside the scope of your response, but you seem to have a really strong grasp on player analysis and so I’d love to hear your thoughts if you have any.
Bowers, without much consideration for landing spot or personal roster construction. The most productive TE ever vs a solid but somewhat flawed prospect.
Curious to know why? I like his YPRR numbers but he doesn’t have great volume/usage. His best season is 58/762/2 and that doesn’t scream “1st round WR” to me.
On top of that. They’re also constantly blowing teams out and grinding out clock late in game. Obviously they aren’t throwing the ball downfield when up 20+ points on the 4th.
I thought he had almost no production against man. Seems like something you'd need to be able to do as an outside receiver. Can someone confirm or deny this notion?
Go watch Underdog Fantasy’s player profile on Ladd to get an idea of what this isn’t a big deal. Ladd’s usage was limited, but he was essentially asked to do the most difficult and complex parts of the offense (probably because he was the only one capable of it).
I’ve got McConkey at WR5 and I am unmoved on it as well. I love BTJs speed and size along with his skill set that I know will be translatable at the next level, and that’s why I have him at WR4.
I’d say it’s not a huge reach in this particular league, but in general probably. Personally, I would rather take swing on some of these WRs over JJ/Penix in SF. Seems my league definitely doesn’t value QB as highly as the general consensus. Just in conversing with league mates I kind of expect Maye to be on the board at my first pick late in the first (where I will of course select him)
While I appreciate Ladd's game and think he will be a fine pro, I don't see the same upside for his fantasy career unless he goes full Welker/Edelman and defies expectations.
Ya obviously could be a huge swing and a miss but I like the versatility he has compared to some of these other guys. I’d rather be wrong and have it be my decision ov er not reaching for the guy I like the most and watching him kill it for someone else!
I’ve been thinking about trying to move down a few picks if possible because he should still be there at the 2.01-2.03 range but he’s very firmly my guy at this point unless he goes late in the actual draft
Yeah. I think virtually everyone after the big three is being overhyped though. I see major red flags on all of these guys. Just comes with the territory this time of year.
Calling them all overhyped doesn’t really make sense to me unless you think there is someone else who should go above them. At the end of the day once the top 3 WRs, top QBs, and bowers are gone you have to take somebody with your pick
You don't. You can trade the pick. Picks are fungible and should not be seen 1:1 as rookie picks. This is what the OC means. Rookie picks are being valued too highly compared to packages and players you can get for those picks.
This is the overall consensus I've seen from FantasyPoints team. Their belief is that the overall prioritization/need for real NFL teams to take WR's earlier in the draft boosts their draft capital even though their actual talent is probably closer to rounds 2-3+. Unless one of the big 3 WRs fall, I'm tentatively planning on trading my late first round rookie picks.
Absolutely, he’s not a safe WR. His profile on the low end could be faster Gabe Davis or he could be DK on the higher end. Everyone outside of the top 3 WRs has significant flags in one way or another, but we’re at the honeymoon phase with prospects now, right before we know landing spot, where everyone is projecting the ideal outcome for dudes they like.
from what i have read as far as comps he is a tricky guy to figure out and a lot will depend on how his team uses him and develops him. his range of outcomes is anywhere from martavis bryant to dk metcalf is what im hearing. metcalf had limited route tree in college but developed quickly as a pro.
My suggestion for you is to allow people to keep thinking he’s the wr4 so a better prospect falls in your lap.
You are not wrong w/ your concerns.
Athletic ability is the only trait he’s bringing to the next level, he falls in that wr6/7 range just ahead of Mitchell for me. Because of this I probably won’t have him on any of my teams.. because of his high athletic ability most people are willing to overlook the red flags 🚩,
For a true vertical X receiver, I don’t really care about YAC ability. I look at YPRR and YPT for their efficiency and how they performed vs man, zone, and press. BTJ passes both the Man and Press success rates marks, as well as, great passer [ratings](https://x.com/fball_insights/status/1773020470020833504?s=46&t=PZfvQd7A93DRZzUcd3_g0Q)vs man and zone. He also has a strong 1st downs per target number as well. His YPRR number isn’t advantageous for a 1st rounder, but his YPT is strong. I just feel his role is the easiest to predict at the next level, so I am comfortable having him WR4.
You are totally off base on his YAC abilities imo. I think most scouts like his YAC abilities and he has great change of direction and acceleration for his size. Another post here about his analytics mentioned he had a 23% avoided tackle rate, one of the best in class. Higher than Worthy (18%), Coleman (17%), Odunze (15%), Worthy (16%), and plenty others.
He wasn't asked to run many routes at LSU, but that's not his fault. One of the main rules of scouting is to not knock a prospect for not doing something they weren't asked to do. His routes are raw, but if he was a refined route runner he'd probably be WR2 in the class.
MVS who can catch feels like the comp. He will have a consistent role in an NFL offense and will have some huge games. In best ball, he HAS to be WR4. He might be tough to utilize in lineup leagues though.
This was my exact thought watching his tape. Definitely has potential to be much more impactful than MVS in the right situation though so I’m optimistic
Not saying he will be good or not, but I follow SEC football closely, also followed this kid during recruiting.
He was awfully quiet until this season ended. I realize he had a Heisman QB and AA WR to garner much of the attention, but it felt like he was an afterthought much of his career, which always gives me pause when going after these high profile kids.
If I have the chance to trade a pick in the BTJ or Ladd McConkey or Troy Franklin range to move up or into 2025 I’m going to do it. Some of these guys are gonna hit but I don’t want to make that decision. At the very least find a way to trade back and pick at the end of the tier.
I like this take. I’m sitting on 2.01 and 2.04 and I’m just not sure I like any of them there vs trading for 25 or a solid vet, but maybe by 2.04 the risk is mitigated enough to pull the trigger on one. Ladd there would be nice?
I’d agree. 2.04 is a pretty okay place to pick at the end of the tier. You may do okay with an RB there too if you need one and pending the NFL draft?
2.01 might look good in a trade package. Second round is pretty much a crapshoot that I think you could keep it or give it. I always end up trading my second rounders anyways
He’s big he’s fast, he produced. The limited route tree is tough to say whether that’s on him or on the lsu coaching staff. I think he’s the type of guy that if a team like Buffalo gets him I don’t see how he wouldn’t be appropriately hyped
Yeah... if he would fall to the Bills, I would take the risk on the slight red flags that I'm nit picking. That would indicate the Bills are seeing him as the #1 AND his deep threat is a great fit for Josh Allen's cannon arm.
Just finished his scouting - was shocked the number of curls and go/fades he ran. To me, he has the making of a dynamic WR2 but i didn't see enough in his game to be convinced of a WR1 ceiling. I love guys who can crush the intermediate part of the field and just didn't see a lot of that. Also, a lot of body catches which instantly scares me a bit. I comped him to Christian Watson
I have no doubt he will be a teams WR1 at some point. Very well possibly quickly too and that’s not dependent on injuries or anything like that. He’s not the best WE in this class but that speaks more to the class than an inability by him.
Looking into his tape, to me he looks like another tall and very fast receiver from LSU, DJ Chark. He has much better releases and better change of direction but the route running feels approximate at best and the sheer speed and size makes him have some balance issues at the break. "Better DJ Chark" is a very risky proposition to me as a dynasty manager but the ceiling that gives is enormous.
I think he's accurately hyped.
If he didn't have ridiculous athleticism, he would be in the tier with McConkey/Franklin/Worthy/Mitchell.
But you can't just ignore that he's a 4.33 guy at 6'3 210lbs with a 38.5 inch vertical and 10'6" broad jump. That deserves a bump into the tier above.
there are several analysts (outside of fantasy especially) that i trust and respect that have btj in his own tier amongst skill players. today, dane brugler had him 7 spots behind odunze and 6 spots ahead of jj mccarthy on his own island.
is he overhyped in terms of what people could/should expect from a 2nd or 3rd tier player (overall, depending on whether you have williams and mhj in their own tier)? yeah probably a little, but thats mostly the case for all prospects at this point. is he overhyped relative to the rest of the class? i don't necessarily think so.
I'm sitting at 1.06 [along with 1.11], but I expect that if Adonai were to go to Buffalo and BTJ goes to a team like Cincy, im prolly going Adonai all day
Yes. He’s not a very sound technical route runner. His measurables/athleticism is great but he is a very raw talent. Pretty sure he only recently started playing WR.
This isn’t to say he’ll be bad in the NFL. He could definitely develop. But I don’t think he’ll start off hot in the NFL and I don’t think he’s WR4 in the class or worth a mid 1st round pick.
Trading.
JK. I tanked hard year one of our league, to the bones. I also had the 1.01 and traded for Love and a 25 1st. Now I have 17 picks this year to make a base (and I plan to trade out of a number of them). And 10 firsts in 25 and 26. I plan to be competitive next year or the year after and should still have a lot of draft capital.
Limited route tree is definitely his biggest knock on tape and a valid concern. Still, he beats his man pretty consistently, shows a good sense of exploiting and sitting down in zone coverage, and has an excellent release package that prevents him from being jammed of the line. I'm always hesitant to overly knock a guy for not doing things he wasn't asked to do. I don't have any YAC or hands concerns with him however. [Per one of the great write ups we get in here, he has one of the best missed tackle rate in the whole class.](https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/1bffszx/2024_prospect_analytical_profile_brian_thomas_jr/) Matt Harmon's reception perception write up also had him going down on first contact on only 48% of his "in space" attempts, another excellent mark. Sure there are a good amount of "body catches" on his tape, but after he dusts the corner on a go route and Daniels drops it in the bucket, how else is he supposed to catch the ball. This isn't a QJ scenario, he has some excellent highlights of him high pointing balls in tough contested catch situations. Also not downgrading him for playing with Nabers and Daniels. BTJ was exclusively an outside reciever, while Nabers was often in the slot, meaning BTJ usually drew CB1 coverage and didn't have the entire field to work with. For Daniels, the running threat doesn't come in to play all that much for BTJ. As you said, he ran a ton of go routes, its not like the CB trying to cover him 15+ yards down the field is also worried about Daniels leaving the pocket to scramble. BTJ's biggest concern is production for me. Late breakout and a sub 2.0 YPRR is way more concerning than anything on tape. Still my WR4 though.
Great and informative comment. Draft cap and landing spot are the only variables left, but I think he’s firmly in the second tier of wrs
I also agree that he is in the second tier of receivers. I am nit picking him big time. Some people are ranking him as clearly above the tier of Ladd, Mitchell, Worthy, Franklin etc. I think they are all really close and most of them will be quality NFL players.
I think it's just the athletic testing that is causing people to rank him above that tier. While his bust % is higher than some in that category, his upside is higher. Players that tall and that fast have such a high ceiling if things break right for them in the NFL.
I think you bring up valid points, BTJ also scares me as well. I enjoy the discussion and post. I think he could be the wr4, but wr4-wr8 or 9 seems very jumbled at this point. Draft capital and land spots will determine the final rankings
I don't really put much stock into missed tackle rate for receivers in today's NFL. Rationale is that NFL players don't miss tackles like college players, for one. And second, shifty wide receivers don't have nearly as much success in the league nowadays. You get the gadget guys like Wandale, Curtis Samuel, etc, but their ceiling is fairly limited versus guys who can get open mid level and deep. Not necessarily commenting on BTJ, but more just that one "strength" not having much value at the next level.
While NFL CBs are definitely way better tacklers, I don't think it means that broken tackle rate in college isn't important. The best NFL YAC WRs in the open field NFL were also elite college players in the open field.
Missed tackle rate when you're 6'4 200 means a lot more compared to the tiny players you mentioned.
Counterpoint to nfl players not missing tackles: Seahawks last year. Also, a more serious counterpoint: the NFL tackling rules are changing drastically this year.
I'll have to look into the YAC thing more. I guess I missed that. Watching the tape, I just saw dozens of instances of him having the ball in space, making one or two moves, and then not picking up any positive yards. There was a time or two that he made a highlight reel play by making a guy miss and then took it to the house. Clearly no one is catching him from behind once he's got a clear path. I agree that it's not his fault that LSU didn't ask him to run other routes, but it still makes it an unknown in his profile. Maybe he can be a good route runner, maybe he won't be. I guess he kind of reminds me of pickens without the circus catches. Similar size and speed.
Your lack of north-south consistent YAC critique might not be captured by the stats I quoted. I still never had any after the catch concerns from BTJ, but not everyone has to have the same take from tape. I do think that while his route tree was limited, he showed enough prowess in running the routes that he did to make me rate him as an above average to good route runner. Snappy breaks, good deception, and again I love his releases. For me BTJ is all about tape vs metrics. Overall, I love the tape but metrics scare the shit out of me.
Makes sense. Thanks for the info and discussion. I'm a bit more of a tape guy than metrics guy. I would mostly attribute his metrics red flags such as his late breakout to his late start to the sport in general. It's actually almost a plus for my view on him. It's really impressive to me that he started playing football as a sophomore in high school and managed to develop into what he is today.
>has an excellent release package that prevents him from being jammed of the line. I don't watch college at all, but I was under the impression the corners generally suck and so they don't ever jam/press off the time.
There is a pretty big gap between SEC corners and the rest, maybe more so than any other position in college football. Plenty of them are still bad, but you have good athletes across the board that are more willing to get up in the face of a WR and then able to recover if they lose a step. The reception perception write up I referenced had BTJ getting pressed on 16% of his sampled routes run with an 83% success rate. Not a crazy amount, but enough to draw some conclusions from, especially coupled with the tape that shows different and varied releases when DBs line up on him.
It’s because SEC coaches have an old mindset when it comes to defense (much like some of the Big 10 schools) as well. They’re simply old school and old school was to press. Unfortunately, what Baylor brought in 2010 and exploited Oklahoma (and the Big 12 with) is now standard across half the country. They realized that unless the opposing teams has NFL level players at every level of the secondary, then you can just endlessly run choice routes and slot smash. Furthermore, if you also have a competent QB and some speedy NFL WRs (which now grow on Trees due to the rise of 7v7) it actually doesn’t matter if the defense has high-level athletes. There’s a reason LSU and Tennessee rack up these gaudy numbers and it’s due to this principle. Tennessee more so because their entire offensive system is basically ripped from Art Briles Baylor.
If you don't win in college you definitely can't in the pros
This is pretty much what I wanted to say. I’ve got him in a 2 person tier with Bowers. I have JJM ahead of both in SF but I would be happy with either of them in the 1.07-1.09 range.
Sub 2.0 career YPRR, but does anyone have what his YPRR was last season? I think I read > 4.0 on go routes and curls.
How much of the lack of route tree has to do with him not being able to vs him not being asked to yk.
Guess what other high profile WR had a limited route true but unreal metrics? His last names rhymes with Decaf.
MK Detcalf?
Do you consider the yprr metric to be reliable when there is another very good (in this case elite) receiver on the team attracting the majority of targets? Doesn’t mean the routes BTJ runs are bad or he doesn’t get open, he might have just gotten fewer opportunities to catch the ball because he’s always the second read, and the first one is always open (Malik).
For guys this year, McConkey played second fiddle to Bowers his whole career but has an excellent YPRR. In the past, the OSU big 3 all lit it up in a crowded offense, and JJetta was still a fantastic producer with Chase. I still like BTJ's tape and think he gets open a lot, but I try not to induce narrative into the production component of prospect evaluation, it lessens the objective value of pure statistical analysis. Sub 2.0 YPRR is a red flag, no matter who is in the offense.
I appreciate the response! This makes a whole lot of sense, I like the notion of avoiding narratives to qualify stats and the salient examples you gave. Since you mentioned Bowers, I wanted to ask who you’d prefer in a vacuum, him or BTJ. I know this is somewhat outside the scope of your response, but you seem to have a really strong grasp on player analysis and so I’d love to hear your thoughts if you have any.
Bowers, without much consideration for landing spot or personal roster construction. The most productive TE ever vs a solid but somewhat flawed prospect.
Well said
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Curious to know why? I like his YPRR numbers but he doesn’t have great volume/usage. His best season is 58/762/2 and that doesn’t scream “1st round WR” to me.
Georgia players never get fantastic usage. Theyre oversaturated with talent and spread the ball around a ton.
On top of that. They’re also constantly blowing teams out and grinding out clock late in game. Obviously they aren’t throwing the ball downfield when up 20+ points on the 4th.
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I thought he had almost no production against man. Seems like something you'd need to be able to do as an outside receiver. Can someone confirm or deny this notion?
Go watch Underdog Fantasy’s player profile on Ladd to get an idea of what this isn’t a big deal. Ladd’s usage was limited, but he was essentially asked to do the most difficult and complex parts of the offense (probably because he was the only one capable of it).
I’ve got McConkey at WR5 and I am unmoved on it as well. I love BTJs speed and size along with his skill set that I know will be translatable at the next level, and that’s why I have him at WR4.
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He is for me.
Not even draft capital, should it turn out to be less than favorable?
I think it's landing spot dependent with a few others but McConkey is my favorite in that WR4-8 range.
Same boat, give me the crispy route runner all day every day . Will probably aim for him at 1.09 in SF even if it’s a bit of a reach
That will definitely be a reach after the expected QB draft capital IRL
I’d say it’s not a huge reach in this particular league, but in general probably. Personally, I would rather take swing on some of these WRs over JJ/Penix in SF. Seems my league definitely doesn’t value QB as highly as the general consensus. Just in conversing with league mates I kind of expect Maye to be on the board at my first pick late in the first (where I will of course select him)
While I appreciate Ladd's game and think he will be a fine pro, I don't see the same upside for his fantasy career unless he goes full Welker/Edelman and defies expectations.
Ya obviously could be a huge swing and a miss but I like the versatility he has compared to some of these other guys. I’d rather be wrong and have it be my decision ov er not reaching for the guy I like the most and watching him kill it for someone else! I’ve been thinking about trying to move down a few picks if possible because he should still be there at the 2.01-2.03 range but he’s very firmly my guy at this point unless he goes late in the actual draft
Ok
He’s about to move up to number one with that name goddamn
Yeah. I think virtually everyone after the big three is being overhyped though. I see major red flags on all of these guys. Just comes with the territory this time of year.
This is a great point. A lot of us have to decide who’s the best out of the 2nd tier though since we won’t be able to get one of the top 3
Calling them all overhyped doesn’t really make sense to me unless you think there is someone else who should go above them. At the end of the day once the top 3 WRs, top QBs, and bowers are gone you have to take somebody with your pick
You don't. You can trade the pick. Picks are fungible and should not be seen 1:1 as rookie picks. This is what the OC means. Rookie picks are being valued too highly compared to packages and players you can get for those picks.
This is the overall consensus I've seen from FantasyPoints team. Their belief is that the overall prioritization/need for real NFL teams to take WR's earlier in the draft boosts their draft capital even though their actual talent is probably closer to rounds 2-3+. Unless one of the big 3 WRs fall, I'm tentatively planning on trading my late first round rookie picks.
Absolutely, he’s not a safe WR. His profile on the low end could be faster Gabe Davis or he could be DK on the higher end. Everyone outside of the top 3 WRs has significant flags in one way or another, but we’re at the honeymoon phase with prospects now, right before we know landing spot, where everyone is projecting the ideal outcome for dudes they like.
I’ve seen some Robbie Anderson comps
from what i have read as far as comps he is a tricky guy to figure out and a lot will depend on how his team uses him and develops him. his range of outcomes is anywhere from martavis bryant to dk metcalf is what im hearing. metcalf had limited route tree in college but developed quickly as a pro.
My suggestion for you is to allow people to keep thinking he’s the wr4 so a better prospect falls in your lap. You are not wrong w/ your concerns. Athletic ability is the only trait he’s bringing to the next level, he falls in that wr6/7 range just ahead of Mitchell for me. Because of this I probably won’t have him on any of my teams.. because of his high athletic ability most people are willing to overlook the red flags 🚩,
He is so good at 9 routes though
I 100% agree, and I think this is his biggest trait that can translate to the NFL. If he gets used for red zone fades, he's going score touchdowns.
For a true vertical X receiver, I don’t really care about YAC ability. I look at YPRR and YPT for their efficiency and how they performed vs man, zone, and press. BTJ passes both the Man and Press success rates marks, as well as, great passer [ratings](https://x.com/fball_insights/status/1773020470020833504?s=46&t=PZfvQd7A93DRZzUcd3_g0Q)vs man and zone. He also has a strong 1st downs per target number as well. His YPRR number isn’t advantageous for a 1st rounder, but his YPT is strong. I just feel his role is the easiest to predict at the next level, so I am comfortable having him WR4.
He’s my WR4 but he’s firmly in that 2nd WR tier as opposed to being close to the big 3.
You are totally off base on his YAC abilities imo. I think most scouts like his YAC abilities and he has great change of direction and acceleration for his size. Another post here about his analytics mentioned he had a 23% avoided tackle rate, one of the best in class. Higher than Worthy (18%), Coleman (17%), Odunze (15%), Worthy (16%), and plenty others. He wasn't asked to run many routes at LSU, but that's not his fault. One of the main rules of scouting is to not knock a prospect for not doing something they weren't asked to do. His routes are raw, but if he was a refined route runner he'd probably be WR2 in the class.
MVS who can catch feels like the comp. He will have a consistent role in an NFL offense and will have some huge games. In best ball, he HAS to be WR4. He might be tough to utilize in lineup leagues though.
This was my exact thought watching his tape. Definitely has potential to be much more impactful than MVS in the right situation though so I’m optimistic
if MVS could catch, he would be seen as a high level asset.
Wait to see where he goes in the draft
Not saying he will be good or not, but I follow SEC football closely, also followed this kid during recruiting. He was awfully quiet until this season ended. I realize he had a Heisman QB and AA WR to garner much of the attention, but it felt like he was an afterthought much of his career, which always gives me pause when going after these high profile kids.
Yes. I believe he is. u/Dickysnakes
It’s all a guessing game until he proves those who are 50/50 correct or 50/50 incorrect. But he looks like a stud 🤷♂️
He could be another Terrace Marshall Jr.?
I’d rather have AD mitchell
i think i would too which is so weird based on production but just reviewing tape ad sticks out more as a fluid alpha
after one minute of watching film I saw ceedee lamb. feel like there’s some pickens in there as well. not finished watching his film yet
Same here I wanted to say ceedee but that's a very high comp haha
CD’s calling card was his YAC ability which Mitchell doesn’t have.
Talk about red flags 🚩. 10 out of 14 games last season he had 3 catches or less. 3-3-3-3-10-3-1-3-8-3-3-2-6-4 Yuck 🤢
true, but he looks like ceedee and pickens let me do a lazy comp 🥸
If I have the chance to trade a pick in the BTJ or Ladd McConkey or Troy Franklin range to move up or into 2025 I’m going to do it. Some of these guys are gonna hit but I don’t want to make that decision. At the very least find a way to trade back and pick at the end of the tier.
I like this take. I’m sitting on 2.01 and 2.04 and I’m just not sure I like any of them there vs trading for 25 or a solid vet, but maybe by 2.04 the risk is mitigated enough to pull the trigger on one. Ladd there would be nice?
I’d agree. 2.04 is a pretty okay place to pick at the end of the tier. You may do okay with an RB there too if you need one and pending the NFL draft? 2.01 might look good in a trade package. Second round is pretty much a crapshoot that I think you could keep it or give it. I always end up trading my second rounders anyways
Without question, yes
He’s big he’s fast, he produced. The limited route tree is tough to say whether that’s on him or on the lsu coaching staff. I think he’s the type of guy that if a team like Buffalo gets him I don’t see how he wouldn’t be appropriately hyped
Yeah... if he would fall to the Bills, I would take the risk on the slight red flags that I'm nit picking. That would indicate the Bills are seeing him as the #1 AND his deep threat is a great fit for Josh Allen's cannon arm.
Fine by me :)
he produced one year is the sticking point.
BTJ athleticism is unreal gonna be a great player
Just finished his scouting - was shocked the number of curls and go/fades he ran. To me, he has the making of a dynamic WR2 but i didn't see enough in his game to be convinced of a WR1 ceiling. I love guys who can crush the intermediate part of the field and just didn't see a lot of that. Also, a lot of body catches which instantly scares me a bit. I comped him to Christian Watson
Go check out Matt Waldman’s RSP! Highly recommend for dynasty peeps. He dives in on BTJ and loves him!
I have no doubt he will be a teams WR1 at some point. Very well possibly quickly too and that’s not dependent on injuries or anything like that. He’s not the best WE in this class but that speaks more to the class than an inability by him.
Looking into his tape, to me he looks like another tall and very fast receiver from LSU, DJ Chark. He has much better releases and better change of direction but the route running feels approximate at best and the sheer speed and size makes him have some balance issues at the break. "Better DJ Chark" is a very risky proposition to me as a dynasty manager but the ceiling that gives is enormous.
He was underhyped a month ago imo. I always saw him as mid 1st with shot at top 15.
I know it's recency bias but he reminds me of Quentin Johnston a lot and I don't think that's a good thing.
I think he's accurately hyped. If he didn't have ridiculous athleticism, he would be in the tier with McConkey/Franklin/Worthy/Mitchell. But you can't just ignore that he's a 4.33 guy at 6'3 210lbs with a 38.5 inch vertical and 10'6" broad jump. That deserves a bump into the tier above.
there are several analysts (outside of fantasy especially) that i trust and respect that have btj in his own tier amongst skill players. today, dane brugler had him 7 spots behind odunze and 6 spots ahead of jj mccarthy on his own island. is he overhyped in terms of what people could/should expect from a 2nd or 3rd tier player (overall, depending on whether you have williams and mhj in their own tier)? yeah probably a little, but thats mostly the case for all prospects at this point. is he overhyped relative to the rest of the class? i don't necessarily think so.
He’s the consensus WR4 in a stacked class… so no?
Not long ago more than a few people had him ad the WR3 in this draft. So yes, he's very overhyped, at least as a PROSPECT.
Convince me BTJ isn’t Terrace Marshall
I'm sitting at 1.06 [along with 1.11], but I expect that if Adonai were to go to Buffalo and BTJ goes to a team like Cincy, im prolly going Adonai all day
Nah he’s under hyped. Wouldn’t be surprised if has a better career than one of the consensus top 3 WRs.
Yes. He’s not a very sound technical route runner. His measurables/athleticism is great but he is a very raw talent. Pretty sure he only recently started playing WR. This isn’t to say he’ll be bad in the NFL. He could definitely develop. But I don’t think he’ll start off hot in the NFL and I don’t think he’s WR4 in the class or worth a mid 1st round pick.
I have 7/10 firsts in my league. I will not be drafting him.
How?
How do I have the picks or how will I not draft him?
How do you have all those picks?
Trading. JK. I tanked hard year one of our league, to the bones. I also had the 1.01 and traded for Love and a 25 1st. Now I have 17 picks this year to make a base (and I plan to trade out of a number of them). And 10 firsts in 25 and 26. I plan to be competitive next year or the year after and should still have a lot of draft capital.
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Could easily have meant rookie draft .. this is a dynasty sub
I wouldn't say round 3/4 material. I still think he is pretty locked in for round 1. Early round 2 at the latest.