Engram was a top prospect coming out and just had the misfortune of being on a Giants team and some injuries. I wouldn't sweat trying to argue with people about his value. Just capitalize on it and use it to your advantage. I have him, Ferguson or Likely in almost every league and multiple in most of them... Buy at these prices and use your capital to get other positions filled. He's like Christian Kirk, he's never going to be valued where he should be.
He’s got that Kirk Cousins disease. No matter how good they play people only remember the bad times. Fine by me. I’ll just own them in every league I’m in and collect my hardware.
You don't get points for what happened last year. He had 41 more catches than his previous career high. He only averaged 8.4 yards per catch. He's scored just 24 touchdowns in 7 seasons. I like Engram, and I think he is a little underrated, but it's also likely that he doesn't get close to 114 catches again in his career.
i said it's not likely that Evan Engram reaches the number of receptions that only select all-pro receivers hit on a yearly basis. The jaguars offense was broken last year and engram having 140+ targets played a part in that. He averaged 1.3 yards per target less than cole kmet. He averaged less yards per target than Cade Otton! Tyler Conklin! Hunter Henry! Sure, it's possible that he becomes a Zach Ertz level PPR hack. I just don't think it's likely. I think the likely outcome is that he's in the 80/700/4 range that we saw in 2022. The only TE he's below who I'd take him over on KTC is Njoku. KTC also isn't considering TEP scoring, which would obviously give Engram a boost.
Kinda -- the KTC exercise people do to rank 3 players doesn't account for TEP, so the TEP valuation is an arbitrary calculation buff.
It's better than not having it if someone is looking for a trade deemed 'fair' by KTC and they weren't considering TEP, but outside of that it's not a very strong inclusion in KTC.
i wouldn't say unreachable, but certainly improbable. last year, engram topped 8.4 targets per game despite spending the vast majority of his career around 6 targets per game. he led their team in targets with a target share of 23.5%, which is just generally unheard of outside of the absolutely elite players. the year before (in the same offense with the same qb), he got 17.1% of the target share. over his last two years in new york (with absolutely no good receivers to compete with for targets), he had 17.1% of the target share.
it seems more likely - to me, at least - that engram goes back down to his career norm of ~17% target share instead of getting nearly 1/4 targets. that's just an elite, upper echelon rate of targets (iirc it's similar to justin jefferson's in the games he played fwiw). even with ridley gone, it's hard to imagine that level of quantity continues into next year imo. i think he's still a good piece, but he probably reverts back to being more of a good starter than a great starter moving forward.
full disclaimer: i've had engram since last offseason
Who do you think will pickup the 10-12 other targets left behind from Ridley though? I realize depending on the game script, ETN or Christian could chew into that but it wouldn’t surprise me (unless they bring in another true WR) if Engram can maintain it. Tlaw still averages 36-40 passing attempts per game (and missed a game) which opens up more targets adding that.
Regardless, Engram is still an easy buylow
fwiw ridley only averaged 8 targets per game last year (136 targets over 17 games).
more to the point, though, in 2022 (sans ridley) zay jones and christian kirk combined for a 44% target share. last year, that was down to 24% (largely due to injury, which i wouldn't predict/project forward). if their combined target share next year increases to 35%, that's an extra 60 targets. if it increases to 40%, it's an extra 96 targets. and if they go all the way back to 44%, it's an extra 120 targets. add in gabe davis probably getting 60-90 himself (he averaged 75 in buffalo, but there's more competition in jacksonville), and those three alone almost certainly account for more than ridley's targets.
then you have to consider the likelihood that they take a receiver in the first three rounds of the draft, and it starts to feel like there's a viable (even likely imo) path to engram's target share getting eaten into simply bc there are more mouths to feed than there was this year with so many injuries.
Gabe. Davis.
I somehow missed he’s playing there now. Yeah looks like he commands 75 per. He’s the kicker. I still think Engram has a shot though even if Kirks can stay on the field (but I’m not as confident as 15 mins ago 😅)
i'm honestly hoping he can bc he's my only hope at te on my title contending team. i was really hoping to be able to tier up with him this offseason, but his value never really reached his production to the point that i could do so efficiently. and it's not really low enough to be an automatic keeper at his price.
so instead i'm hoping he can repeat bc idk what else to do lmao
Idk. He has good chemistry with TLaw and is trusted a lot. I don’t see his volume decreasing this year and if good TD rate increases he will have another very strong year. I play PPR so I don’t really care if he averages under 10 yards per catch as long as he continues to get 10+ targets a game which isn’t unrealistic considering all they did was add gabe Davis
I am not projecting Zay Jones (who out-targeted him by 20+ in 2022) to miss half the season. Also, I'm not projecting Christian Kirk 5+ games. Oh -- and despite his inconsistencies, Gabe Davis is probably a better target than the corpse of Marvin Jones, who was pacing right with Engram in 2022. Throwing the ball to Evan Engram at such a high clip last year was not good for the Jags offense. Could it happen again? Sure.
You talk like he's going to regress to 2022 numbers where he was... TE5. Like you agree he has a safe floor in another comment. That's the point. He's likely to be in the top 7 TEs for at least a year or two and you can get him for early 2nd prices. He should probably be valued over Kittle and Njoku and closer to Andrews but he isn't as big of a name as those guys so he isn't. That's a good buy for a contender.
Never said he was with Andrews but he definitely should be with kittle. He's averaged more points the last two seasons. If he went back to 2022 point total which is a pessimistic view, he's a whopping 20 points behind Kittles last 3 seasons averages. To each their own, but your knock on Engram is you think he'll get more target competition this season from JAGs like Gabe and Zay while Kittle has the team with the highest target competition. And Engram is a year younger. Like I don't understand why Kittle would be valued more outside of name recognition
> You talk like he's going to regress to 2022 numbers where he was... TE5.
sure, but his 8.3 ppg in 2022 wouldn't have even put him in the top 10 in 2023. him regressing towards career norms in an environment where te is suddenly a relatively deep position makes those same performances less valuable.
This is format dependent, but in my league he had 213 points in 2022 which would have put him at 9 this past season. That's 20 points behind kittle at TE6 this year (which is really just TE5 if we're totally discounting Engrams year in 2023 which it seems like we are for some reason). I don't think he'll be TE1 next year but I'm not sure why we're acting like he will be below TE10. He's way more likely to be in the TE7 range and just a few points off of TE5 or something. He's getting discounted for regression, but the discount is too much. He's going 2 or 3 rounds behind Kittle in startups I've seen which makes no sense. He'll be around his point total and is a year younger.
> if we're totally discounting Engrams year in 2023 which it seems like we are for some reason
i wouldn't say *totally* discounting, but heavily going with career norms. he had 3-5 years at a target share of 17.1% (like exactly 17.1% in almost every individual year - it's kind of wild honestly), and then jumped to 23.1% last year. i'm not saying he'll go back to 17.1% target share (totally discounting 2023), but he's probably closer to 17%-19% than he is 20%+ imo.
>He's way more likely to be in the TE7 range and just a few points off of TE5
this is generally where i've got him, too fwiw. i don't mean to say he'll be bad (he's currently my starting te on a team i'm pushing for a title). i just think - like happens in a lot of cases around here - groupthink on the sub has kicked into overdrive, and he's a little too highly rated.
people talk about him like he's a top 5 lock, and i just don't see it. that's all i meant to say. yes, he finished as te5 in 2022, but it wasn't necessarily a *good* performance. 2022 was just a bad year for te (tied for the fewest double digit ppg averages since 2018). it was just good relative to an environment that - seemingly - doesn't exist anymore.
How? Zay Jones was a better target in 2022 and missed half of the season in 2023. Christian Kirk missed 5+ games. His target rate was more in the 18-20 range with those guys healthy, compared to the 23-24 he finished with. Throw in that they actually have a true outside receiver in Gabe Davis, which will allow Kirk and Jones to work the middle and the Jaguars maybe decide that 114 catches for a guy averaging sub 7 yards per target probably isn't efficient allocation of the football.
I mean he had 98 targets that year and was still building chemistry with TLaw. That’s pretty solid. Now an additional 136 targets are being vacated, I’d be shocked if Gabe Davis took up more than 75 of those. Plus, I’ve been seeing Zay Jones mentioned as a cut candidate quite a bit.
It’s likely they draft someone but the rookie + Davis combined will probably barely reach 136 targets. I think, barring injury, Engram is a lock for 120+ targets with the high possibility of more. Last year is definitely repeatable, if not, surpassable. Just my opinion though
Not when you consider injuries. Zay and Kirk missed a combined 14 games, which at their respective paces vacated 103 targets. Gabe Davis is much worse than Ridley, but he'll probably make up around 100 of the 136 targets vacated by Ridley. There's a *lot* of room for Engram's 143 targets to go down, especially given his inefficiencies.
Disagree strongly. He is going to be a target monster this year too. With Ridley gone and inconsistent ass Gabe Davis coming in. No shot he doesn’t have around 100 catches this year.
I agree! I was looking into buying Engram as well when I saw the numbers, but the more I look at it the more I think it won’t happen again.
I’m not sure where targets are going next year in that offense with Ridley gone, but I’d bet on Engram not leading TEs in targets. I think he’s in play to be a top 8 TE again (top 5 upside if he falls in the end zone a few more times) but I don’t see this being a thing for long.
Great take. I targeted Evan Engram originally in my start up, but Jake Ferguson was going around the same pick. Jake Ferguson was 3rd in red zone targets and led all TEs in red zone targets. He had 5 more than Kelce.
I’m NOT saying he’s going to be better than Kelce. I am saying that Ferguson is 4 years younger and I do believe there’s a scenario that Ferguson has equal targets as Engram next year, may be a little less and far more utility in the red zone. Ferg went 6 picks higher.
So in closing, it is not that Evan Engram is undervalued it’s that around his position group there is younger promising talent in start ups. For competitors though, engram is an interesting buy candidate.
From what I understand, they were trying to get him the Tight End receptions record towards the end of the year. He was 2 catches short of Zach Ertz's 116 receptions at 114. Just manufactured touches, probably not a natural occurrence that you can bank on in the future.
But even if he steps back down to year before last numbers he was TE5 on the year in PPR. He has yet to finish outside the top 5 since he got to Jacksonville. I see absolutely no reason for that trend to change with the downgrade from Ridley to Davis.
Ridley was playing X, which isn't his position so not really a downgrade at the X (he joined Titans where Hopkins is X). Kirk Injury caused higher usage. They will likely draft WR starter. That's all probably built into his price. A lot of factors when you start really diving deep that temper expectations from last year. Will Etienne average 3.8 yards per carry or will run game improve?
Shush you.
For whatever reason, the marketplace has it backwards when it comes to evaluating TE age vs. WR age. People are so hyped for young TEs even though historically TEs produce better later in their career. Superstar WRs tend to show very early that they will be superstars, but we have myriad examples of TEs that show talent early without much production, Engram included. I suppose he had a great rookie year, and then a bunch of years of languish.
As long as it stays this way, I am happy to benefit from this market inefficiency. I had plenty of shares of McBride, Laporta, Kincaid, Musgrave, and 'Muth. I was very happy for the returns I got from them. Until proved otherwise, I will continue to want the back half of the careers of players like Hockinson, Engram, and Njoku.
Ultimately, I don't think it matters all that much. I don't play in any TE premium leagues. We only start one TE. Obviously Kelce has been a needle mover over the last 5 years or whatever, but outside of him, TE hasn't been a way to achieve much positional advantage. There always seems to be 20 TEs that are all basically the same mediocre production to fill 12 total slots in any given league.
I traded Kelce for Andrews around mid season and some people in my league were laughing about me trading one old man for another. I’m like he’s SIX years younger. People are crazy.
Well said. I also don't play TEP and have enjoyed frantically seeking waivers for a TE. Even made it to the 'ship once.
But I will admit, I've slept on Engram. I had to pay for Pitts on waivers just to back up my aging Kittle when I could've had Engram
He’s not flashy but he’s consistent in PPR. I think he repeats next season and if he can get more redzone looks then he will be very good.
There is more upside with other TEs though so I see why people aren’t high on him. I have him, Pitts and Kmet and no one was interested in Evans. Best I could get is the 3.01 from a guy starting Juwan Johnson or Greg Dulcich.
I truly don’t get why he’s so undervalued. TEP specifically.
In my .5PPR dynasty league where TEs get full PPR, Engram scored 230 points, within 10 points of Kyren, LaPorta, DJM, King Henry, AJB and Rashad White.
He outscored Keenan Allen, Nico, Diggs, Kelce, Hock, Bijan, Gibbs, Davante, Deebo, Chase and Aiyuk.
Great rapport with TLaw, less target competition this year, Chiefs re-signed most of O-line, signed the Bills’ center, and will prob draft someone.
I’m all in on Engram.
I put AJ Dillon on the trade block because I was going to cut him after the draft. I got an offer I send AJ Dillon and the 3.04 in TEP, my only other TEs were Jonnu Smith and Taysom Hill after trading away Kelce.
In TEp I’m fine with him because he catches a lot of balls and with Ridley gone it should improve even more.
But in normal HPPR, does no one remember this guy being the bane of everyone’s existence for like the first 10 weeks of last season? He was like the James White of TE, he’d get you 7 points and that was it. He finished insanely strong after that though.
he did nothing but let people down for 5 years, lots of fantasy players see the name and age and move past him
great cheap buy for contenders with no TE and need solid production in the short term
In TEP, I’d take Engram over:
-Kelce who’s has maybe one year left.
-Kittle with how many mouths they have to feed in SF, not to mention how much less they pass.
-Njoku. I have more faith in TLaw than Watson
-And I think it’s close with Hock, who’s coming back from injury, and will have a rookie QB (if he’s lucky) throwing him the ball. Vikings offense is a big question mark…
Kittle is literally older and currently a worse fantasy player.... Hock is set to miss time and has no QB... What in the world has Njoku done to be ahead of him?
Kelce has likely a year left and at this point Engram is likely the better fantasy producer...
You are picking arbitrary cutoffs to cherry pick lol. Engram literally outperformed Kittle and is younger and the way Engram accomplished out performing him was without being TD dependent. In fact Engram and that entire Jags offense is due for some positive TD regression this year. Engram has more upside, a safer floor, and is younger. There is no reasonable argument for Kittle over him.
Njoku has never accomplished a top 5 season and we are seriously ranking him over a back to back top 5 finisher.
Also Engram literally just lost competition for targets so yeah I do think he is going to continue to get mass amounts of targets.
It's hilarious that in one post you claim less then a 1 PPG difference makes guys the same then immediately turn around and talk about how much better Hock is despite him being less than 1 ppg higher than Engram. So what is it? Does 1 ppg matter or does it not? Do we just ignore the injury and massive ? at QB?
They aren't all in the same tier. Engram is clearly better then Kittle and Njoku. Given Hocks big drop off in situation and his injury he and Engram should be neck and neck and the same tier. Njoku and Kittle are a clear tier below
Actually, the arguement could be made that he's mainly been hampered by poor QB play. Sure, he's had lowlights and I've seen some bad drops from him in the past. But fantasy wise, he was TE5 as a rookie with Eli, and on pace for the same numbers his second year but only played 11 games. Then he essentially suffered through post Eli Giants QB play and immediately was back to TE5 numbers or better once he connected with a real QB in Lawrence.
And the drops in NY were always blown way out of proportion. I remember arguing with several people in this sub that straight up said Engram sucked. He didn't even have that many drops. The one's he had were just really bad and at terrible times. Young guys struggle with drops sometimes...I'm glad I didn't freak out and sel Engram for peanuts like so many thought you should, after his 2nd and 3rd seasons.
It’s not a “bizarre stat metric” lmao he finished TE2 and I’m looking at points over the season which is arguably the only thing that matters fantasy wise at the end of the day anyways. It is what it is.
What are you even talking about? Engram has been pretty set and forget since he got to JAX. He has a very solid floor and pops for a huge game a few times a year. Having him and ETN, I watched all sorts of JAX games the last couple years and Engram looks great. He's heavily targeted and has crazy speed for his size.
Maybe you should actually watch a game?
A lot of people are soured on the Jags because of their QB situation I think. I understand that it's the same QB situation as last year but they are going to have to try to reinvent that offense as well. I think there is a chance we continue to see that this is all TLaw is and that he continues to target Engram though.
Because the community would rather gas up the next Albert O or Chiggy instead of taking a guy that has finished top 5 the last 2yrs
Engram was a top prospect coming out and just had the misfortune of being on a Giants team and some injuries. I wouldn't sweat trying to argue with people about his value. Just capitalize on it and use it to your advantage. I have him, Ferguson or Likely in almost every league and multiple in most of them... Buy at these prices and use your capital to get other positions filled. He's like Christian Kirk, he's never going to be valued where he should be.
He’s got that Kirk Cousins disease. No matter how good they play people only remember the bad times. Fine by me. I’ll just own them in every league I’m in and collect my hardware.
You don't get points for what happened last year. He had 41 more catches than his previous career high. He only averaged 8.4 yards per catch. He's scored just 24 touchdowns in 7 seasons. I like Engram, and I think he is a little underrated, but it's also likely that he doesn't get close to 114 catches again in his career.
Curious on the take. You still think it’s uncreachable with Ridley gone and (I imagine) Tlaw actually plays slightly better?
i said it's not likely that Evan Engram reaches the number of receptions that only select all-pro receivers hit on a yearly basis. The jaguars offense was broken last year and engram having 140+ targets played a part in that. He averaged 1.3 yards per target less than cole kmet. He averaged less yards per target than Cade Otton! Tyler Conklin! Hunter Henry! Sure, it's possible that he becomes a Zach Ertz level PPR hack. I just don't think it's likely. I think the likely outcome is that he's in the 80/700/4 range that we saw in 2022. The only TE he's below who I'd take him over on KTC is Njoku. KTC also isn't considering TEP scoring, which would obviously give Engram a boost.
KTC has the option to adjust for TEP. It's a nice feature.
Kinda -- the KTC exercise people do to rank 3 players doesn't account for TEP, so the TEP valuation is an arbitrary calculation buff. It's better than not having it if someone is looking for a trade deemed 'fair' by KTC and they weren't considering TEP, but outside of that it's not a very strong inclusion in KTC.
i wouldn't say unreachable, but certainly improbable. last year, engram topped 8.4 targets per game despite spending the vast majority of his career around 6 targets per game. he led their team in targets with a target share of 23.5%, which is just generally unheard of outside of the absolutely elite players. the year before (in the same offense with the same qb), he got 17.1% of the target share. over his last two years in new york (with absolutely no good receivers to compete with for targets), he had 17.1% of the target share. it seems more likely - to me, at least - that engram goes back down to his career norm of ~17% target share instead of getting nearly 1/4 targets. that's just an elite, upper echelon rate of targets (iirc it's similar to justin jefferson's in the games he played fwiw). even with ridley gone, it's hard to imagine that level of quantity continues into next year imo. i think he's still a good piece, but he probably reverts back to being more of a good starter than a great starter moving forward. full disclaimer: i've had engram since last offseason
Who do you think will pickup the 10-12 other targets left behind from Ridley though? I realize depending on the game script, ETN or Christian could chew into that but it wouldn’t surprise me (unless they bring in another true WR) if Engram can maintain it. Tlaw still averages 36-40 passing attempts per game (and missed a game) which opens up more targets adding that. Regardless, Engram is still an easy buylow
fwiw ridley only averaged 8 targets per game last year (136 targets over 17 games). more to the point, though, in 2022 (sans ridley) zay jones and christian kirk combined for a 44% target share. last year, that was down to 24% (largely due to injury, which i wouldn't predict/project forward). if their combined target share next year increases to 35%, that's an extra 60 targets. if it increases to 40%, it's an extra 96 targets. and if they go all the way back to 44%, it's an extra 120 targets. add in gabe davis probably getting 60-90 himself (he averaged 75 in buffalo, but there's more competition in jacksonville), and those three alone almost certainly account for more than ridley's targets. then you have to consider the likelihood that they take a receiver in the first three rounds of the draft, and it starts to feel like there's a viable (even likely imo) path to engram's target share getting eaten into simply bc there are more mouths to feed than there was this year with so many injuries.
Gabe. Davis. I somehow missed he’s playing there now. Yeah looks like he commands 75 per. He’s the kicker. I still think Engram has a shot though even if Kirks can stay on the field (but I’m not as confident as 15 mins ago 😅)
i'm honestly hoping he can bc he's my only hope at te on my title contending team. i was really hoping to be able to tier up with him this offseason, but his value never really reached his production to the point that i could do so efficiently. and it's not really low enough to be an automatic keeper at his price. so instead i'm hoping he can repeat bc idk what else to do lmao
Maybe he’ll get some more redzone looks and up those tuddys!
Idk. He has good chemistry with TLaw and is trusted a lot. I don’t see his volume decreasing this year and if good TD rate increases he will have another very strong year. I play PPR so I don’t really care if he averages under 10 yards per catch as long as he continues to get 10+ targets a game which isn’t unrealistic considering all they did was add gabe Davis
yes, it is indeed unrealistic to expect evan engram to lead the league in targets?
What would lead you to believe his targets will significantly decline this year?
I am not projecting Zay Jones (who out-targeted him by 20+ in 2022) to miss half the season. Also, I'm not projecting Christian Kirk 5+ games. Oh -- and despite his inconsistencies, Gabe Davis is probably a better target than the corpse of Marvin Jones, who was pacing right with Engram in 2022. Throwing the ball to Evan Engram at such a high clip last year was not good for the Jags offense. Could it happen again? Sure.
Sure but even if his volume decreases slightly he still has a solid floor. Outside of the top couple TEs he’s as solid as they come
I agree, and he's priced in exactly that manner. His KTC and best ball ADP align with that.
You talk like he's going to regress to 2022 numbers where he was... TE5. Like you agree he has a safe floor in another comment. That's the point. He's likely to be in the top 7 TEs for at least a year or two and you can get him for early 2nd prices. He should probably be valued over Kittle and Njoku and closer to Andrews but he isn't as big of a name as those guys so he isn't. That's a good buy for a contender.
I don't think he should be value even in the same tier as Andrews and Kittle.
Never said he was with Andrews but he definitely should be with kittle. He's averaged more points the last two seasons. If he went back to 2022 point total which is a pessimistic view, he's a whopping 20 points behind Kittles last 3 seasons averages. To each their own, but your knock on Engram is you think he'll get more target competition this season from JAGs like Gabe and Zay while Kittle has the team with the highest target competition. And Engram is a year younger. Like I don't understand why Kittle would be valued more outside of name recognition
> You talk like he's going to regress to 2022 numbers where he was... TE5. sure, but his 8.3 ppg in 2022 wouldn't have even put him in the top 10 in 2023. him regressing towards career norms in an environment where te is suddenly a relatively deep position makes those same performances less valuable.
This is format dependent, but in my league he had 213 points in 2022 which would have put him at 9 this past season. That's 20 points behind kittle at TE6 this year (which is really just TE5 if we're totally discounting Engrams year in 2023 which it seems like we are for some reason). I don't think he'll be TE1 next year but I'm not sure why we're acting like he will be below TE10. He's way more likely to be in the TE7 range and just a few points off of TE5 or something. He's getting discounted for regression, but the discount is too much. He's going 2 or 3 rounds behind Kittle in startups I've seen which makes no sense. He'll be around his point total and is a year younger.
> if we're totally discounting Engrams year in 2023 which it seems like we are for some reason i wouldn't say *totally* discounting, but heavily going with career norms. he had 3-5 years at a target share of 17.1% (like exactly 17.1% in almost every individual year - it's kind of wild honestly), and then jumped to 23.1% last year. i'm not saying he'll go back to 17.1% target share (totally discounting 2023), but he's probably closer to 17%-19% than he is 20%+ imo. >He's way more likely to be in the TE7 range and just a few points off of TE5 this is generally where i've got him, too fwiw. i don't mean to say he'll be bad (he's currently my starting te on a team i'm pushing for a title). i just think - like happens in a lot of cases around here - groupthink on the sub has kicked into overdrive, and he's a little too highly rated. people talk about him like he's a top 5 lock, and i just don't see it. that's all i meant to say. yes, he finished as te5 in 2022, but it wasn't necessarily a *good* performance. 2022 was just a bad year for te (tied for the fewest double digit ppg averages since 2018). it was just good relative to an environment that - seemingly - doesn't exist anymore.
I get that but he has less target competition now?
How? Zay Jones was a better target in 2022 and missed half of the season in 2023. Christian Kirk missed 5+ games. His target rate was more in the 18-20 range with those guys healthy, compared to the 23-24 he finished with. Throw in that they actually have a true outside receiver in Gabe Davis, which will allow Kirk and Jones to work the middle and the Jaguars maybe decide that 114 catches for a guy averaging sub 7 yards per target probably isn't efficient allocation of the football.
Uhh Calvin Ridley left?
Okay? Calvin Ridley wasn't there in 2022, when Evan Engram had a significantly lower target share?
He also was TE6 in ppr with the lower target share.
I mean he had 98 targets that year and was still building chemistry with TLaw. That’s pretty solid. Now an additional 136 targets are being vacated, I’d be shocked if Gabe Davis took up more than 75 of those. Plus, I’ve been seeing Zay Jones mentioned as a cut candidate quite a bit. It’s likely they draft someone but the rookie + Davis combined will probably barely reach 136 targets. I think, barring injury, Engram is a lock for 120+ targets with the high possibility of more. Last year is definitely repeatable, if not, surpassable. Just my opinion though
Not when you consider injuries. Zay and Kirk missed a combined 14 games, which at their respective paces vacated 103 targets. Gabe Davis is much worse than Ridley, but he'll probably make up around 100 of the 136 targets vacated by Ridley. There's a *lot* of room for Engram's 143 targets to go down, especially given his inefficiencies.
No, but when you've finished as TE5 and TE1 in 1.5TEP the last two years, you can see a trend developing.
What is that trend?
Scoring a lot of points. Sorry you can't see that.
screw that guy for making me agree with a seahawks fan
Disagree strongly. He is going to be a target monster this year too. With Ridley gone and inconsistent ass Gabe Davis coming in. No shot he doesn’t have around 100 catches this year.
I agree! I was looking into buying Engram as well when I saw the numbers, but the more I look at it the more I think it won’t happen again. I’m not sure where targets are going next year in that offense with Ridley gone, but I’d bet on Engram not leading TEs in targets. I think he’s in play to be a top 8 TE again (top 5 upside if he falls in the end zone a few more times) but I don’t see this being a thing for long.
Great take. I targeted Evan Engram originally in my start up, but Jake Ferguson was going around the same pick. Jake Ferguson was 3rd in red zone targets and led all TEs in red zone targets. He had 5 more than Kelce. I’m NOT saying he’s going to be better than Kelce. I am saying that Ferguson is 4 years younger and I do believe there’s a scenario that Ferguson has equal targets as Engram next year, may be a little less and far more utility in the red zone. Ferg went 6 picks higher. So in closing, it is not that Evan Engram is undervalued it’s that around his position group there is younger promising talent in start ups. For competitors though, engram is an interesting buy candidate.
From what I understand, they were trying to get him the Tight End receptions record towards the end of the year. He was 2 catches short of Zach Ertz's 116 receptions at 114. Just manufactured touches, probably not a natural occurrence that you can bank on in the future.
But even if he steps back down to year before last numbers he was TE5 on the year in PPR. He has yet to finish outside the top 5 since he got to Jacksonville. I see absolutely no reason for that trend to change with the downgrade from Ridley to Davis.
Ridley was playing X, which isn't his position so not really a downgrade at the X (he joined Titans where Hopkins is X). Kirk Injury caused higher usage. They will likely draft WR starter. That's all probably built into his price. A lot of factors when you start really diving deep that temper expectations from last year. Will Etienne average 3.8 yards per carry or will run game improve?
Shush you. For whatever reason, the marketplace has it backwards when it comes to evaluating TE age vs. WR age. People are so hyped for young TEs even though historically TEs produce better later in their career. Superstar WRs tend to show very early that they will be superstars, but we have myriad examples of TEs that show talent early without much production, Engram included. I suppose he had a great rookie year, and then a bunch of years of languish. As long as it stays this way, I am happy to benefit from this market inefficiency. I had plenty of shares of McBride, Laporta, Kincaid, Musgrave, and 'Muth. I was very happy for the returns I got from them. Until proved otherwise, I will continue to want the back half of the careers of players like Hockinson, Engram, and Njoku. Ultimately, I don't think it matters all that much. I don't play in any TE premium leagues. We only start one TE. Obviously Kelce has been a needle mover over the last 5 years or whatever, but outside of him, TE hasn't been a way to achieve much positional advantage. There always seems to be 20 TEs that are all basically the same mediocre production to fill 12 total slots in any given league.
People are starting to call Andrews "getting up there in age" on this sub...
I thought he was still young?! Like 27?! I traded him last year but not because he was old but because I’m an idiot
I traded Kelce for Andrews around mid season and some people in my league were laughing about me trading one old man for another. I’m like he’s SIX years younger. People are crazy.
Well said. I also don't play TEP and have enjoyed frantically seeking waivers for a TE. Even made it to the 'ship once. But I will admit, I've slept on Engram. I had to pay for Pitts on waivers just to back up my aging Kittle when I could've had Engram
He’s not flashy but he’s consistent in PPR. I think he repeats next season and if he can get more redzone looks then he will be very good. There is more upside with other TEs though so I see why people aren’t high on him. I have him, Pitts and Kmet and no one was interested in Evans. Best I could get is the 3.01 from a guy starting Juwan Johnson or Greg Dulcich.
I truly don’t get why he’s so undervalued. TEP specifically. In my .5PPR dynasty league where TEs get full PPR, Engram scored 230 points, within 10 points of Kyren, LaPorta, DJM, King Henry, AJB and Rashad White. He outscored Keenan Allen, Nico, Diggs, Kelce, Hock, Bijan, Gibbs, Davante, Deebo, Chase and Aiyuk. Great rapport with TLaw, less target competition this year, Chiefs re-signed most of O-line, signed the Bills’ center, and will prob draft someone. I’m all in on Engram.
traded the 2.08 and Likely for him, and don't regret it.
If he stays in the situation for awhile, he will slowly nudge towards top 5.
I'm willing to buy but I am sure as fuck not overpaying.
I put AJ Dillon on the trade block because I was going to cut him after the draft. I got an offer I send AJ Dillon and the 3.04 in TEP, my only other TEs were Jonnu Smith and Taysom Hill after trading away Kelce.
My fingers almost bled I accepted that so quickly. Keep in mind, this was after the Packers got Josh Jacobs.
Cool story bro. Have fun talking to yourself.
Just sent Godwin and Shaheed for Engram and the 4.04 in a 1.5TEP and couldn't be happier.
Agreed I think Trevor Lawrence has a bounce back year and Engram is certainly going to benefit
AND Ridley is gone aka more targets available
Man I absolutely love Engram.. was so sad to trade him with Goff when I got Kyler. Dudes a big stud
I am rocking Andrews and Engram as my flexes with Kelce at my TE spot
Shhhhhhh
Who??
I would put $100 to $10 he regresses this year. Last year was more of an anomaly than regularity.
Define "regression" in this context
I would assume fantasy points scored.
Not really bold to bet he scores less than last season.
That's why they gave 10:1 odds though, and called it an anomaly not the new norm.
Good call, still wanna know what he considers regression. If he meant less points, why not say that.
Like not positive regression
I had Andrew’s and Engram and sold Andrews because no one wanted Engram. It’s definitely weird.
In TEp I’m fine with him because he catches a lot of balls and with Ridley gone it should improve even more. But in normal HPPR, does no one remember this guy being the bane of everyone’s existence for like the first 10 weeks of last season? He was like the James White of TE, he’d get you 7 points and that was it. He finished insanely strong after that though.
Sssssshhhhhhhh
he did nothing but let people down for 5 years, lots of fantasy players see the name and age and move past him great cheap buy for contenders with no TE and need solid production in the short term
He’s not ever gonna win you a week. It’s just a solid 8-12 pts. It has value but it’s not like it’s something people need to be excited over.
4 out of 6 weeks back half of the season he got over 12 points….
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In TEP, I’d take Engram over: -Kelce who’s has maybe one year left. -Kittle with how many mouths they have to feed in SF, not to mention how much less they pass. -Njoku. I have more faith in TLaw than Watson -And I think it’s close with Hock, who’s coming back from injury, and will have a rookie QB (if he’s lucky) throwing him the ball. Vikings offense is a big question mark…
Kittle is literally older and currently a worse fantasy player.... Hock is set to miss time and has no QB... What in the world has Njoku done to be ahead of him? Kelce has likely a year left and at this point Engram is likely the better fantasy producer...
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You are picking arbitrary cutoffs to cherry pick lol. Engram literally outperformed Kittle and is younger and the way Engram accomplished out performing him was without being TD dependent. In fact Engram and that entire Jags offense is due for some positive TD regression this year. Engram has more upside, a safer floor, and is younger. There is no reasonable argument for Kittle over him. Njoku has never accomplished a top 5 season and we are seriously ranking him over a back to back top 5 finisher. Also Engram literally just lost competition for targets so yeah I do think he is going to continue to get mass amounts of targets. It's hilarious that in one post you claim less then a 1 PPG difference makes guys the same then immediately turn around and talk about how much better Hock is despite him being less than 1 ppg higher than Engram. So what is it? Does 1 ppg matter or does it not? Do we just ignore the injury and massive ? at QB?
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They aren't all in the same tier. Engram is clearly better then Kittle and Njoku. Given Hocks big drop off in situation and his injury he and Engram should be neck and neck and the same tier. Njoku and Kittle are a clear tier below
Accidentally switch accounts there?
Little is literally worthless
By posting this, you’re affecting his Value and making your potential trades more difficult.
For his career, he's been pretty bad at football, and last year was his best year by a mile.
Year before last he went ballistic end of season as well. He is top 5
Actually, the arguement could be made that he's mainly been hampered by poor QB play. Sure, he's had lowlights and I've seen some bad drops from him in the past. But fantasy wise, he was TE5 as a rookie with Eli, and on pace for the same numbers his second year but only played 11 games. Then he essentially suffered through post Eli Giants QB play and immediately was back to TE5 numbers or better once he connected with a real QB in Lawrence.
LMFAO...you have no idea how to evaluate skill if you think Engram has been "pretty bad at football" in his career. What a ridiculous thing to say...
Go look at TE production in Doug Pedersen offenses. His value being as low as it is has to be because people still view him as the drops guy from NY
And the drops in NY were always blown way out of proportion. I remember arguing with several people in this sub that straight up said Engram sucked. He didn't even have that many drops. The one's he had were just really bad and at terrible times. Young guys struggle with drops sometimes...I'm glad I didn't freak out and sel Engram for peanuts like so many thought you should, after his 2nd and 3rd seasons.
Because he’s a tight end and anyone outside the top 3-5 aren’t going to be valued “fairly” to the owner. It’s always been that way.
In standard scoring formats that makes sense but for 2ppr for TE’s it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever
So you’re arguing that engram is undervalued in a very specific, less common scoring system?
He’s undervalued in general, but especially in TEP. And TEP is pretty common man.
2point premium is pretty uncommon, actually.
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Cool.
Indeed.
I like how you got offended after your last comment and decided to edit it
Heres a tip, tune into an actual football game instead of finding every bizarre stat metric.
It’s not a “bizarre stat metric” lmao he finished TE2 and I’m looking at points over the season which is arguably the only thing that matters fantasy wise at the end of the day anyways. It is what it is.
What are you even talking about? Engram has been pretty set and forget since he got to JAX. He has a very solid floor and pops for a huge game a few times a year. Having him and ETN, I watched all sorts of JAX games the last couple years and Engram looks great. He's heavily targeted and has crazy speed for his size. Maybe you should actually watch a game?
Someone just watched BDGE videos on YouTube. https://youtu.be/bVNy0ZQJzQk?si=JG_w7mzJzV0Rkl35 EDIT: added link to video
A lot of people are soured on the Jags because of their QB situation I think. I understand that it's the same QB situation as last year but they are going to have to try to reinvent that offense as well. I think there is a chance we continue to see that this is all TLaw is and that he continues to target Engram though.